$90,000,000.00
$80,000,000.00
$70,000,000.00
$60,000,000.00
$50,000,000.00 CF CV CT
$40,000,000.00
INGRESOS
$30,000,000.00
$20,000,000.00
$10,000,000.00
$2008 1000
2009 2000
2010 3000
2011 3000
2012 3000
2013 3000
2014 4000
2015 4000
2016 4000
2017 4000
2018 5000
Inst Instal alac acio ione ne Valores Pr Promed Rango de población urbana 5.000 a 10.000 10.000 a 30.000 30.000 a 40.000 40.000 a 50.000 50.000 a 80.000 80.000 a 100.000 100.000 a 200.000
Primera alternativa Co#s Co#s&/ &/a a// %a %a (%a (%a# #a a ac aca% a% & &&c &ca/ a/ a*( a*(%%+ac +ac+ 1.000 %#&as ca'a #a. Los cos cosos os !"os !"os a#a a#a%& %&s s '& '& ca' ca'a a (%a (%a# #a a )%o )%o *+ Los cosos a/+a%&s )aca%&s /os (o/ Segunda alternativa S& ss s+& %a (%a#a #a aca% (o/ #a *s *o s& %& (&' (&' :ac&/ :ac&/ a*(%+a a*(%+ac+o#& c+o#&s s sc&s+as sc&s+as ' Los Los cos coso os s !"os !"os a#a a#a%& %&s s '& '& %a (/+* (/+*&/ &/a a +#s +#sa a%a %ac c a*(%+ac+o#&s so# '& $ 15.000.000. Los coso sos a/+ a/+a a%&s %&s a#a a#a%& %&s s (o/ (o/ &% &%o#o o#o +#s +#s a%&/#a+a. E% a% a%o/ o/ *&'+ *&'+o o '& '& +#< +#/&sos &sos (o/ (o/ &% &%o o#o #o +#s +#sa% a% a%&/#a+a.
Telefónicas o de la Muestra
Proyecció
"o# de tel$fonos por cada %&& 'abitantes urbanos 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
!os 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
o#&s sc&s+as co# (%a#as s+*+%a/&s '&
C("C)*SI("+S , *o & %a aca% so# '& $ 10.000.000. %o#o +#sa%a'o so# '& $4.000ao.
&/#a '& 3.000 %#&as '& ca(ac+'a', a %a ca% 2.000 %#&as '& ca(ac+'a'. +;# so# '& $ 25.000.000 %os '& %as %a'o so# %os *+s*os '& %a (/+*&/a 'o &s '& $16.000 a#a%&s (a/a ca%+&/
%# )a me.or altern 3.os inferiores a l costos# +n la alternativa se generaría una segunda alternati +s por estos dos cual generaría un 79:#;0&&& de la /# +l an5lisis com línea instalada2 el proyectandose al Para la segunda a siendo rentable#
de demanda por líneas telefónicas – Carigua Población urbana "o# de líneas por estimada>%? %&& 'ab#/ 37292 39194 41193 43292 45502 47823 50262 52825 55519 58350 61326
6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8
"o# de líneas demandadas/ 2238 2352 2884 3030 3185 3348 4021 4226 4442 4668 4906
1. =o%ac+;# (/o&ca 2. S&# /a#
"+R)+Sativa proyectada al /&%0 es la n1 /2 esta tiene en promedio unos costos alternativa %2 los cuales son los 4ue mas afectan en la estructura de 2la capacidad est5 por lo general por deba.o de la demanda de lo contrario apacidad ociosa 4ue se convertiría en p$rdida para la empresa# +n la a la demanda y la capacidad van mas de la mano2 son mas cercanas# otivos mencionados 4ue se considera me.or alternativa2 la segunda2 la utilidad acumulada al 3nali6ar el /&%0 de 7%%8#00&&& vs los alternativa %# arativo nos muestra 4ue disminuyendo en un %/2<= el ingreso medio por me.or escenario para la alternativa % sería alcan6ar el punto de e4uilibrio2 /&%0 no se generaría ni ganancia ni p$rdida para la empresa# lternativa se disminuiría signi3cativamente la utilidad sin embargo sigue
'a co# # c/&c+*+o '&% 5.1> a#a% a%a a#&/+o/
C@ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
10,000,000.00 20,000,000.00 30,000,000.00 30,000,000.00 30,000,000.00 30,000,000.00 40,000,000.00 40,000,000.00 40,000,000.00 40,000,000.00 50,000,000.00
CV $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
4,000,000.00 8,000,000.00 11,536,000.00 12,000,000.00 12,000,000.00 12,000,000.00 16,000,000.00 16,000,000.00 16,000,000.00 16,000,000.00 19,624,000.00
CT $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
14,000,000.00 28,000,000.00 41,536,000.00 42,000,000.00 42,000,000.00 42,000,000.00 56,000,000.00 56,000,000.00 56,000,000.00 56,000,000.00 69,624,000.00
$ 503,160,000.00
$700,000,000.00 $600,000,000.00 $500,000,000.00 $400,000,000.00 $300,000,000.00 $200,000,000.00 $100,000,000.00 $1
2
3
CT C*M $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
14,000,000.00 42,000,000.00 83,536,000.00 125,536,000.00 167,536,000.00 209,536,000.00 265,536,000.00 321,536,000.00 377,536,000.00 433,536,000.00 503,160,000.00
$
2,543,448,000.00
ATILIBB
I",R+S(S $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
@# I",R+S(S
16,000,000.00 32,000,000.00 46,144,000.00 48,000,000.00 48,000,000.00 48,000,000.00 64,000,000.00 64,000,000.00 64,000,000.00 64,000,000.00 78,496,000.00
1000 2000 2884 3000 3000 3000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4906
$ 572,640,000.00
CT CAD
IT C*M $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
16,000,000.00 48,000,000.00 94,144,000.00 142,144,000.00 190,144,000.00 238,144,000.00 302,144,000.00 366,144,000.00 430,144,000.00 494,144,000.00 572,640,000.00
$
2,893,792,000.00
$10
IT CAD
$9, $8, $7, $6, $5, $4, $3, $2, $1, $4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
CPCIAA
B(
A+M"A
)T+R"TIV
A+M"A I"STIS@+C
1000 2000 3000 3000 3000 3000 4000 4000 4000 4000 5000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2238 2352 2884 3030 3185 3348 4021 4226 4442 4668 4906
1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
-1238 -352 116 -30 -185 -348 -21 -226 -442 -668 94
,000,000.00 00,000.00
=& )
6000 5000
00,000.00 00,000.00
4000
00,000.00 00,000.00 00,000.00
3000 2000
00,000.00 00,000.00
1000
00,000.00
0 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Pe >D? 834 1667 2500 2500 2500 2500 3334 3334 3334 3334 4167
*TI)IAA $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
2,000,000.00 4,000,000.00 4,608,000.00 6,000,000.00 6,000,000.00 6,000,000.00 8,000,000.00 8,000,000.00 8,000,000.00 8,000,000.00 8,872,000.00
$
69,480,000.00
BEDNB
2013
2014
*TI)IAA C*M# $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
2,000,000.00 6,000,000.00 10,608,000.00 16,608,000.00 22,608,000.00 28,608,000.00 36,608,000.00 44,608,000.00 52,608,000.00 60,608,000.00 69,480,000.00
F. INGRESOS
2015
2016
2017
2018
C(M+"TRI( I#+c+a%. No c/& %a '&*a#'a aca%. *(%+a/ ca(ac+'a', *ao/ +%+'a'. D&"o/ A+%+'a', *(%+a/ ca(ac+'a' Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 3000 Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 3000 Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 3000 D&"o/ A+%+'a', *(%+a/ ca(ac+'a'. Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 4000 Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 4000 Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 4000 D&"o/ A+%+'a', *(%+a/ ca(ac+'a'.
C@
CV
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
25,000,000.00 25,000,000.00 25,000,000.00 25,000,000.00 25,000,000.00 25,000,000.00 25,000,000.00 25,000,000.00 40,000,000.00 40,000,000.00 40,000,000.00
$ $
25,000,000 40,000,000
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
CT
8,952,000.00 9,408,000.00 11,536,000.00 12,000,000.00 12,000,000.00 12,000,000.00 12,000,000.00 12,000,000.00 17,768,000.00 18,672,000.00 19,624,000.00
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
33,952,000.00 34,408,000.00 36,536,000.00 37,000,000.00 37,000,000.00 37,000,000.00 37,000,000.00 37,000,000.00 57,768,000.00 58,672,000.00 59,624,000.00
$
465,960,000.00
$700,000,000.00
ATILIBB
$600,000,000.00 $500,000,000.00 $400,000,000.00 $300,000,000.00 $200,000,000.00 $100,000,000.00 $-
1
2
3
4
CT C*M#
I",R+S(S
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
33,952,000.00 68,360,000.00 104,896,000.00 141,896,000.00 178,896,000.00 215,896,000.00 252,896,000.00 289,896,000.00 347,664,000.00 406,336,000.00 465,960,000.00
$
2,506,648,000.00
CT CAD.
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
@# I",R+S(S
35,808,000.00 37,632,000.00 46,144,000.00 48,000,000.00 48,000,000.00 48,000,000.00 48,000,000.00 48,000,000.00 71,072,000.00 74,688,000.00 78,496,000.00
2238 2352 2884 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 4442 4668 4906
$ 583,840,000.00
IT C*M# $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
35,808,000.00 73,440,000.00 119,584,000.00 167,584,000.00 215,584,000.00 263,584,000.00 311,584,000.00 359,584,000.00 430,656,000.00 505,344,000.00 583,840,000.00
$
3,066,592,000.00
$20,000,0
IT CAD.
$18,000,0 $16,000,0 $14,000,0 $12,000,0 $10,000,0 $8,000,00 $6,000,00 $4,000,00 $2,000,00 5
6
7
8
9
10
11
$-
CPCIAA B( A+M"A )T+R"TIV A+M"A I"STIS@+C Pe >D? 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 5000 5000 5000
00.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2238 2352 2884 3030 3185 3348 4021 4226 4442 4668 4906
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2
762 648 116 -30 -185 -348 -1021 -1226 558 332 94
2084 2084 2084 2084 2084 2084 2084 2084 3334 3334 3334
=& )
6000
00.00 00.00 00.00
5000 4000
00.00 00.00
3000
0.00 0.00 0.00
2000 1000
0.00
0 1
2
3
4
5
6
*TI)IAA
*TI)IAA C*M#
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
1,856,000.00 3,224,000.00 9,608,000.00 11,000,000.00 11,000,000.00 11,000,000.00 11,000,000.00 11,000,000.00 13,304,000.00 16,016,000.00 18,872,000.00
$
117,880,000.00
EDNB
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
1,856,000.00 5,080,000.00 14,688,000.00 25,688,000.00 36,688,000.00 47,688,000.00 58,688,000.00 69,688,000.00 82,992,000.00 99,008,000.00 117,880,000.00
F. INGRESOS
60 50 40 30 20 10 0
8
9
10
11
C(M+"TRI( I#+c+a%. Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 3000 Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 3000 Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 3000 Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 3000 Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 3000 D&"o/ A+%+'a', Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 3000 D&"o/ A+%+'a', Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 3000 D&"o/ A+%+'a', *(%+a/ ca(ac+'a' a 5000. Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 5000 Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 5000
00 00 00 00 00 00
C@ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
10,000,000.00 20,000,000.00 20,000,000.00 30,000,000.00 30,000,000.00 30,000,000.00 40,000,000.00 40,000,000.00 40,000,000.00 40,000,000.00 40,000,000.00
CV $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
4,000,000.00 8,000,000.00 8,000,000.00 12,000,000.00 12,000,000.00 12,000,000.00 16,000,000.00 16,000,000.00 16,000,000.00 16,000,000.00 16,000,000.00
CT $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
14,000,000.00 28,000,000.00 28,000,000.00 42,000,000.00 42,000,000.00 42,000,000.00 56,000,000.00 56,000,000.00 56,000,000.00 56,000,000.00 56,000,000.00
$ 476,000,000.00
$60,000,000.00 $50,000,000.00 $40,000,000.00 $30,000,000.00 $20,000,000.00 $10,000,000.00 $-
2008
2009
2010
CT C*M $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
14,000,000.00 42,000,000.00 28,000,000.00 42,000,000.00 42,000,000.00 42,000,000.00 56,000,000.00 56,000,000.00 56,000,000.00 56,000,000.00 56,000,000.00
$
490,000,000.00
ATILIBB
2011
I",R+S(S $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
CT CAD
2012
14,000,000.00 28,000,000.00 28,000,000.00 42,000,000.00 42,000,000.00 42,000,000.00 56,000,000.00 56,000,000.00 56,000,000.00 56,000,000.00 56,000,000.00
@#I",R+S(S 1000 2000 2000 3000 3000 3000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000
$ 476,000,000.00
IT C*M $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
14,000,000.00 42,000,000.00 28,000,000.00 42,000,000.00 42,000,000.00 42,000,000.00 56,000,000.00 56,000,000.00 56,000,000.00 56,000,000.00 56,000,000.00
$
490,000,000.00
IT CAD
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
CPCIAA
B(
A+M"A
)T+R"TIV
A+M"A I"STIS@+C
1000 2000 2000 3000 3000 3000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2238 2352 2884 3030 3185 3348 4021 4226 4442 4668 4906
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
-1238 -352 -884 -30 -185 -348 -21 -226 -442 -668 -906
$1.00
4500
$0.90
4000
$0.80
3500
$0.70 $0.60 $0.50 $0.40 $0.30
BED
3000 2500 2000 1500
$0.20
1000
$0.10
500
$-
=& )
0 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Pe >D? 1000 2000 2000 3000 3000 3000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000
B
2014
*TI)IAA
*TI)IAA C*M#
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
-
$
-
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
-
F.INGRESOS
2015
2016
2017
2018
C(M+"TRI( I#+c+a%. No c/& %a '&*a#'a aca%. *(%+a/ ca(ac+'a', *ao/ +%+'a'. N.., Dao/ '&*a#'a +#sa+s&c:a, *o/ +%+'a' Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 3000 Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 3000 Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 3000 D&"o/ A+%+'a', *(%+a/ ca(ac+'a'. Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 4000 Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 4000 Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 4000 N.., Dao/ '&*a#'a +#sa+s&c:a, *o/ +%+'a'
C@
CV
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
25,000,000.00 25,000,000.00 25,000,000.00 25,000,000.00 25,000,000.00 25,000,000.00 25,000,000.00 25,000,000.00 25,000,000.00 40,000,000.00 40,000,000.00
$ $
25,000,000 40,000,000
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
CT
8,952,000.00 9,408,000.00 11,536,000.00 12,000,000.00 12,000,000.00 12,000,000.00 12,000,000.00 12,000,000.00 12,000,000.00 18,672,000.00 19,624,000.00
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
33,952,000.00 34,408,000.00 36,536,000.00 37,000,000.00 37,000,000.00 37,000,000.00 37,000,000.00 37,000,000.00 37,000,000.00 58,672,000.00 59,624,000.00
$
445,192,000.00
$600,000,000.00
ATILIBB
$500,000,000.00
$400,000,000.00
$300,000,000.00
$200,000,000.00 1 $100,000,000.00
$-
2
3
4
CT C*M#
I",R+S(S
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
33,952,000.00 68,360,000.00 104,896,000.00 141,896,000.00 178,896,000.00 215,896,000.00 252,896,000.00 289,896,000.00 326,896,000.00 385,568,000.00 445,192,000.00
$
2,444,344,000.00
CT CAD.
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
@# I",R+S(S
31,332,000.00 32,928,000.00 40,376,000.00 42,000,000.00 42,000,000.00 42,000,000.00 42,000,000.00 42,000,000.00 42,000,000.00 65,352,000.00 68,684,000.00
2238 2352 2884 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 4668 4906
$ 490,672,000.00
IT C*M# $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
31,332,000.00 64,260,000.00 104,636,000.00 146,636,000.00 188,636,000.00 230,636,000.00 272,636,000.00 314,636,000.00 356,636,000.00 421,988,000.00 490,672,000.00
$
2,622,704,000.00
$10,000,0
IT CAD.
$8,000,00 $6,000,00 $4,000,00 $2,000,00
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
$ $)2,000,0 $)4,000,0
CPCIAA B( A+M"A )T+R"TIV A+M"A I"STIS@+C Pe >D? 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 5000 5000
0.00 .00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2238 2352 2884 3030 3185 3348 4021 4226 4442 4668 4906
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2
762 648 116 -30 -185 -348 -1021 -1226 -1442 332 94
2084 2084 2084 2084 2084 2084 2084 2084 2084 3334 3334
=& )
6000
B
5000
.00
4000 .00
3000 .00
2000
0.00
1000
0.00
0 1
2
3
4
5
6
*TI)IAA
*TI)IAA C*M#
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
)2,620,000.00 )1,480,000.00 3,840,000.00 5,000,000.00 5,000,000.00 5,000,000.00 5,000,000.00 5,000,000.00 5,000,000.00 6,680,000.00 9,060,000.00
$
45,480,000.00
EDNB
7
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
)2,620,000.00 )4,100,000.00 )260,000.00 4,740,000.00 9,740,000.00 14,740,000.00 19,740,000.00 24,740,000.00 29,740,000.00 36,420,000.00 45,480,000.00
F. INGRESOS
8
9
10
11
C(M+"TRI( I#+c+a%. Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 3000 Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 3000 Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 3000 Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 3000 Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 3000 Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 3000 D&"o/ A+%+'a', Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 3000 D&"o/ A+%+'a', Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 3000 D&"o/ A+%+'a', *(%+a/ ca(ac+'a' a 5000. Co#+#a/ co# %a *+s*a ca(ac+'a' +#sa%a'a 5000