Super Favourite Football System

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The Football 2020 Betting

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THE SUPER FAVOURITE FOOTBALL SYSTEM

A Quantum Gain Trading Please note that this ebook is subject to copyright.

Copyright infringements of any kind, without the author’s permission, will be pur Sign up to vote on this title to the full extent of the law.  Useful  Not useful

Every ebook distributed has a unique feature which will help identify any copy infringements.

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Table of Contents Section

Pag

1) 10,000 ft Summary 2) What is a Super Favourite? 3) What is this System? 3.1) Question 1- Why does the price of a draw often rise pre kick off? 3.2) Question 2- Why is the Draw price slow to move during the opening minutes?

4) The Ideal Scenario Before Kick Off 5) Entering a Trade 6) Exiting a Trade 6.1) Scenario 1-The Super Favourite scores first 6.2) Scenario 2- Game remains 0-0 6.3) Scenario 3- The Underdog scores first

7) Other Points Lay the Draw Early Strike Rate The Draw Price How Long to Stay in the Market? The Stop Loss Bank Size Trading Out and Greening Up Results to Date

8) Appendix

Illustrative Examples

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It is recommended that you read through this entire ebook, along with the Illustr Examples, and test the method before putting actual cash on a trade. The succe traders put time into their trades. A quick summary of the method is as follows:

● Find a game involving a ‘super favourite’ ● Lay the Draw pre kick off - ideally a few hours before kick off ● Once the game kicks off - leave the trade open for 10 - 20 minutes, depe on how volatile the price movement is on the Draw price and the amount yo willing to lose on each trade as a result of decreasing price movement. ● When the trade is open:

1) If the super favourite scores

Green out for a good profit

2) If nothing happens - stays 0-0

Trade out for a small loss at what stop loss level you have set

3) If the underdog scores

Trade out for a loss - usually You're Reading a Preview 20% - 30% of your initial stake

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Section 2) What is a ‘Super Favourite’? A super favourite is a team that is considered an overwhelming favourite. They are u playing against a struggling underdog and their price to win is usually below 1.60. Sign up to vote on this title

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Some current examples of teams that are considered consistent ‘super favourites  Useful  Not useful number of leagues include: Germany - Bayern Munich

England - Manchester City, Chelsea

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Super favourites can be spotted in any world wide league. Cup competitions also thr several super favourites, given the possibility for lower league teams to meet teams higher divisions (although I tend to avoid cup competitions for this strategy).

I am often discouraged from placing bets on super favourites to win. As football ma are generally efficiently priced, this can lead to little value being gained from such This method does not seek to place bets on super favourites to win, but rather, to trade on price movements that are unique due to their involvement.

Section 3) What is this System? You're Reading a Preview

Some background….I’ve been a Betfair regular for many years, and I enjoy backing, la Unlock full access with a free trial. and trading. I feel the key to earning a good income on Betfair is not over using any system, but rather a portfolio of sound strategies. Download With Free Trial

As part of my trading, I have noticed various trends on Betfair, and this system disc one such trend which is nicely profitable. My goal in trading is to minimise risk in every trade Sign (stating the obvious!!) up to vote on this title

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 Useful  Not useful This system aims to stay in a trade as long as possible, benefitting from the large u (the potential of a goal), while minimising the effects for the down side (low

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I have my own explanations. 3.1) Question 1- Why does the price of a draw often rise pre kick off?

Football tends to be an exceptionally efficient market on Betfair. After horse raci is the most traded sport. As a result, there is often little opportunity to exploit a that is potentially under or overvalued, as inefficient pricing is not a common occurr Games involving super favourites can allow for a rare exception.

When you take a price several hours before kick off, you are often entering an alr efficient market and one that generally mirrors the price of bookmakers. Several h before kick off, only a fraction of money is traded, but this is still classified efficient market.

As kick off comes closer, more money enters, generally on the super favourite to w

Reading a Preview Casual punters are looking to addYou're a super favourite to boost an accumulator. Bookm can often use Betfair to reduce Unlock theirfull liability on a super favourite. access with a free trial. Download With Free Trial

While this late money can often reduce the super favourites price (e.g. the back for the super favourite might move from 1.45 to 1.42), this reduction is m inimal and is not a huge profit opportunity. We are more interested in the effect on the Draw Signprice. up to vote on this title



 Useful  Not useful With this late money coming in, the price movement on the super favourite amplifie price movement on the Draw price as well as the price for the underdog to win. A

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The game kicks off, and for the opening minutes, the price movement on the Dr aw is This occurs for several reasons.

The following 3 scenarios look at various possible trends which can occur in the op minutes: Scenario 1 - the Super Favourite starts strong

This is the most likely scenario. The super favourite looks to get in early shots an their stamp of authority over the perceived weaker opposition.

The opening minutes confirm the market’s expectations, and as a result, it is likely the pre match prices will stay very stable.

Similar to scenario 3 discussed below, there is also money on the sidelines, waiti enter the marketplace, most likely to back the super favourite. When more money the super favourite, it is effectively laying (on a staggered basis) the Draw and underdog, keeping both markets propped up.

In this scenario, the Draw price is kept afloat, with little price movement in the op You're Reading a Preview minutes. Unlock full access with a free trial.

Download Scenario 2 - the Underdog starts strongWith Free Trial In games involving super favourites, the underdog can be expected to keep formation tight in the opening minutes and not give away cheap possess ion. The und looks to match their opponent in the opening minutes.

The market prices all these factors in.




 Useful  Not useful Football is an exceptionally efficient market, and this efficiency brings stability.

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Scenario 3 - money on the sidelines

Expanding on scenario 1, another reason for the Draw price stability is due to the waiting on the sidelines. A lot of traders and outright punters wait for the openi minutes or so of a game, before making a bet. They prefer to judge how the game is before entering the market.

This bet could be on the super favourite, on a Draw or on the underdog. It doesn’t ma it still provides for price stability on the Draw price.

The vast majority of in play trading systems I have read over the years recom waiting until the opening minutes of a game before entering a trade.

This is a perfectly reasonable principle, but for this system, this type of advice wo our advantage as we are doing the opposite. The opening minutes are important, bu many, they are a preview of how the game will fair. Expect another huge volume of in the early minutes. This keeps pre match odds relatively stable, when the game re 0-0. You're Reading a Preview full access with a free trial. Section 4) The Ideal Scenario Unlock Before Kick Off

With Free Trialkick off by laying the Draw e We ideally want to enter a tradeDownload several hours before

At the time of kick off, with the majority of the money entering the market, we w hope that the Draw price would have increased, due to the reasons outlined on pag and 6. Sign up to vote on this title



I have an number of real life examples in the Illustrative Examples to this e useful  Useful  Not section One such example was the Real Madrid and Villarreal game on February 8th 2014.

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Section 5) Entering a Trade

1) Find a game involving a super favourite As previously highlighted, these are generally games involving teams with odds of 1. below to win.

2) Seek to enter a market that is deemed efficient. A rule I always follow is tha back and lay spread must be minimal (e.g. 0.01 for the favourite, 0.2 for the Draw 0.2 or 0.5 for the underdog). This generally is not a problem for most football gam

3)

Lay the Draw several hours before kick off

4) As kick off approaches, if the price of the Draw has increased, you have b great safety cushion. If not, you can still rely on the price of the Draw remaining s for the opening minutes. You're Reading a Preview

Unlock full access with a free trial.

5) At kick off, using your maximum loss tolerance, calculate your exit price fo trade, assuming the game stays Download at 0-0. This referred WithisFree Trial to as a stop loss and is a important calculation to plan in advance.

Putting a stop loss in place before every trade allows you to set a clear objectiv enforces discipline. I usually set a stop loss of 12% on every trade. Sign up to vote on this title



How long does it take for the Draw price to move 12% in play? That depends on  Useful  Not useful match and circumstances. Historically I found I could stay in the Draw market fo minutes, before the Draw price moved against me by more than 12%.

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Section 6) Exiting a Trade

The below scenarios detail the three ways to close a trade and depend on the outco the opening minutes of a game. These scenarios are ranked in order of preference, Scenario 1 providing a healthy profit, Scenario 2 providing a small loss and Scena also providing a loss. Scenario 1) The Super Favourite scores first This is the ideal scenario.

We have placed a lay bet on the Draw before kick off. In the opening minutes, the favourite lives up to expectations and scores first.

This drastically increases the in play price of the Draw, meaning that we can back Draw at a far higher price compared to what we laid at, allowing us to green out w good profit. Illustrative Examples 1 to 4 show details of real trades involving this scenario. You're Reading a Preview

Scenario 2) Game remains 0-0 Unlock full access with a free trial. This is a scenario that is most common when using this strategy. Download With Free Trial

We have laid the Draw pre kick off and hope that the price of the Draw increases during the hours leading up to kick off. If this is the case, it will allow us to have a safety cushion, and keep the trade open for longer until the stop loss is r eached. If the price has not increased, there is no change toSign theupstrategy. to vote on this title



 Useful  Not useful The price movement on the Draw is slow in the opening minutes. Let the trade open your stop loss is reached, and then trade out.

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The underdog scoring first is a rare occurrence when playing against a super favo and should be seen as a cost of using this strategy. In 56 trades to date, the unde has scored first in only 4 such trades. Illustrative Examples 7 and 8 show details of real trades involving this scenario. Section 7) Other Points Lay the Draw Early

If you can lay the Draw at a price reasonably comparable to the bookmakers price, very likely that you will end up building up the safety cushion (e.g. the price of the at kick off will be higher than the price you laid at). Betfair very often offers supe prices compared to bookmakers.

Where a game has a 3pm kick off on a Saturday - why not look to get a price match Betfair on Friday evening at a price that is the equivalent to the bookmakers? Sho remain unmatched, you have all night for the opportunity to get matched, and yo reassess the following morning. Should it be matched overnight (or partially matc you have a far better chance of building up a safety cushion that will keep you in the You're Reading a Preview for longer. Unlock full access with a free trial.

Strike Rate


What strike rate can you expect with this strategy?

You cannot expect a high strike rate with this strategy. This is a strategy I have using for a number of years, but have only kept detailed records since January 201  up to vote on this which title this timeframe, I have entered 56 trades, with 23Sign winning trades, equates 41% strike rate.  Useful  Not useful

You pay a small price for being in the market (unless the underdog scores first) and

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If a draw price is at 11.0, the price tends to move downwards quicker than, say, a of 4.2. In my experience, the optimum price is between 3.5 and 6.0.

How Long to Stay in the Market?

This depends on your stop loss - see below.

With my normal stop loss, I find I can stay in a trade for 10-15 minutes before the p move beyond my comfort zone.

With a good pre match safety cushion, the trade can be kept open a lot longer - some for an additional 10 minutes depending on the size of the safety cushion. The Stop Loss

What % should you set your stop loss at? The stop loss is the maximum amount you are willing to lose as a result of no goal scored in the opening minutes. You're Reading a Preview Unlockyour full access withstays a free trial. The larger the stop loss, the longer trade open, and vice versa.

I usually keep mine at 12%.


Should you let a trade go beyond your stop loss?

I rarely allow this, however, if I am watching a game, and see the super favourite w  top, and sense a goal, I might let the trade open forSign another couple minutes. Th up to vote on thisof title rarity, and I find once the 25 minute mark is exceeded, price tends to Not useful  UsefultheDraw more drastically.

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If the game remains at 0-0 and I need to trade out, my loss is around 12% of the £

If the underdog scores first, I can expect a loss is the region of 20% to 30% on my £

I keep a bank size sufficiently large enough to cover my liability for a £100 lay sta odds of usually between 3.5 and 8.0. Trading Out and Greening Up

If you do not know how to trade out of a position, and green up, then I suggest you G search these terms and become familiar. This system requires a foundation knowled very basic trading and Betfair. Software is not mandatory for this system. Results to Date

I have entered 56 trades since Jan 2014. -

23 have been winning trades, giving me a profit of £1,104

-

29 trades have seen no goal which has forced me to trade out with a loss of

-

Unlock full access withfirst, a free trial. 4 trades have seen the underdog score leading to a loss of £124 Thi

You're Reading a Preview

given me a total profit to date ofDownload £608 With Free Trial

Section 8) Illustrative Examples Sign up to vote on this title



The Illustrative Examples are detailed in the following pages.Below is a summary o Not useful  Useful outcome of each. Profit (Before

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4

Super favourite scored early. Traded out for a profit

£58.75

5

Game remained 0-0. Stop loss reached. Traded out for a small loss

£11.62

6

Game remained 0-0. Stop loss reached. Traded out for a small loss

£12.00

7

Underdog scored first. Traded out for a loss

£26.83

8

Underdog scored first. Traded out for a loss

£39.86

You're Reading a Preview Unlock full access with a free trial.



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Illustrative Example Game 1

Manchester City v West Brom Date and Kick Off Time - 21 April 2014/ 8pm Pre-match Trade - Laid the Draw at 6.80 for £100 at 10.24am Price of the Draw at Kick Off - 7.40 Stop Loss Price - 6.10 - rounded down to 6.00 - once this price is hit, I trade out

With Manchester City opening with a 1.22 super favourite price, the bookmakers price of 6.50 for the Draw, and I was happy to get a price matched slightly above i expected, the price of the draw rose on the build up to kick off. Below is a screenshot from the Betfair marketaminutes You're Reading Preview before kick off. Unlock full access with a free trial.


Outcome - After 3 minutes Zabaleta scored, giving an instant profit. TheDraw p up to vote on this title rose to 14.0, which I happily traded out for a Sign £51.41 profit (before commis Useful  Not useful  regardless of the outcome.

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Illustrative Example Game -

Chelsea v Sunderland Date and Kick Off Time - 20 April 2014/ 5.30pm Pre-match Trade - Laid the Draw at 7.20 for £100 at 6.54am Price of the Draw at Kick Off - 7.80 Stop Loss Price - 6.46 - rounded down to 6.40 - once this price is hit, I trade out

Chelsea opened with a 1.24 super favourite price and the bookmakers set a price of for the Draw. As I got a price matched so early, I thought the Draw price would more before kick off. However, I was still glad of the increase.



Outcome - 12 minutes in and Eto’o scores, probably a minute or two before I trade The Draw price rose to 15.0, which I happily traded out for a £52 profit (be commission) regardless of the outcome. Sign up to vote on this title

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Illustrative Example Game Pre-match Trade - Laid the Draw at 5.80 for £100 at 10.11am Price of the Draw at Kick Off - 6.80 Stop Loss Price - 6.11 - rounded up to 6.20 - once this price is hit, I trade out

This was one of the earlier trades and one where I built up an excellent safety cus of 1.0.

You're Preview 6 Reading minutes,athe trade is an instant winner. The Outcome - With Bale scoring after price barely fluctuated in this time Unlock frame. full accessAt with1-0, a free the trial. Draw price rose to 12.5, a traded out for a £53.60 profit (before commission). Download With Free Trial


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Illustrative Example Game Stop Loss Price - 5.88 - rounded up to 5.90 - once this price is hit, I trade out

This was a game I was expecting Munich to attack right from the start and got an lay for a good safety cushion.

Outcome - Kroos scored after 6 minutes, making no need for the safety cus Interestingly, as the market reopened at 1-0, I looked to get a price matched at but saw 16.0 available as the market was starting to resettle. Getting this match traded out for a £58.75 profit (before commission). You're Reading a Preview Unlock full access with a free trial.


5

Juventus v Parma


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Outcome - There was a quiet start to the game. I find the prices are always slo move in Italian games. However, by the 12th minute, my stop loss was reached a traded out for a £11.63 loss.


6


Kilmarnock v Celtic Date and Kick Off Time - 14 March 2014/ 7.45pm Pre-match Trade - Laid the Draw at 5.60 for £100Sign atup 2.19pm to vote on this title  Useful  Not useful Price of the Draw at Kick Off - 6.40

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Illustrative Example -

Game Outcome - A surprising quiet start to the game forced me to trade out with a £1 loss, once my stop loss was hit.

7

Cardiff v Liverpool Date and Kick Off Time - 22 March You're 2014/ Reading3pm a Preview Unlock access with£100 a free trial. atfull 5.20 for at 6.50am Pre-match Trade - Laid the Draw

Price of the Draw at Kick Off Download - 5.70 With Free Trial Stop Loss Price - 4.69 - rounded up to 4.70 - once this price is hit, I trade out

I expected Liverpool to attack this game from the start and was very happy with my  match safety cushion. Sign up to vote on this title 

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8

Galatasaray v Kasimpasa Date and Kick Off Time - 19 April 2014/ 6pm Pre-match Trade - Laid the Draw at 4.00 for £100 at 12.50pm Price of the Draw at Kick Off You're - 4.20Reading a Preview Unlock full access with a free trial.

Stop Loss Price - 3.61 - rounded up to 3.60 - once this price is hit, I trade out. Download With Free Trial

My first venture into Turkish football. I noticed a sluggish price movement on the price in the build up to kick off and only achieved the minimal safety cushion.


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Super Favourite Football System

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