Policy analysis: concepts and practice Ed. 5 Weimwe & Vining
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Quantitative Development Policy Analysis
qwheat ao (5441 33 research) pwheat / w
bij p j / w bik z k .
j wheat
k
This is done in row 22, in the column of the wheat equation, by addition of the variable research pwheat / w . In this cell, C22, introduce the value 33 for the corresponding parameter. Reduce the value of the intercept sufficiently (by subtracting the product 33 232.19, which is the average value of the new variable) in order to reproduce the base values with this new equation. Check that this is indeed the case in the first column of simulations. With this new model, calculate the direct price elasticity for wheat by simulating the impact of an increase in the price of wheat. Compare this with the simple elasticity obtained earlier in question 2. 7. The following equations represent the total impact of public investment (in research and extension) on wheat production: qwheat ao (5441 33 research) pwheat / w
bij p j j wheat
/ w 56 research 531irrigation,
where irrigation 10.09 20 pwheat / w 0.015 research . These equations show that the total impact of public investment on wheat production can be decomposed into three related effects. First, in the short run, a change in research investment affects wheat production directly. This was simulated in question 4 by increasing research and extension by 10%. Second, a change in public investment will also indirectly affect wheat production by changing the way production responds to a change in price (i.e., a change in research investment changes the own price elasticity of wheat production). To simulate these two effects together, create a column labeled 7(a) in the spreadsheet that you have just modified for question 6. In this column increase the research and extension variable by 10% as was done in question 4. The variable r esearch wheat price in row 42 correspondingly increases. Now simulate the impact of this new set of exogenous variables on the endogenous variables. Third, in the long run, a change in public investment will also have an indirect effect through the impact of public investment on investment in irrigation. To simulate the three effects together, extend the row labeled “estimated irrigation” across the bottom of all simulations. This row now shows the long-run impact of each simulated change in exogenous variables on investment in irrigation. The “estimated irrigation” in column 7(a) shows the long-run impact of a 10% increase in public investment in research on private investment in irrigation. Report this “estimated irrigation” to row 39 of a new column labeled 7(b). In this same column increase the research and extension variable by 10% as was done in 7(a). All other exogenous variables remain at base levels. Simulate the impact of this new set of exogenous variables on the endogenous variables. Analyze these results.
