Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) - World Trend 2011/2012 by Eduardo Petazze
Better known by its trade name Purchasing Managers' Index ™ (PMI ™), the Markit surveys, and the like, covering management expectations for manufacturing activity in some 38 countries. Being a composite index, weighted generally expected levels of production, orders, employment, time supplies, inventories, etc., in the form of diffusion index, for next month compared the previous month's levels. Positive responses (growth) are weighted at 100% and the answers "no change" are weighted by 50%. In this manner, an index above 50 points indicates expansion in activity, whereas if it is lower, is interpreted as a contraction in activity. Each component of the index is seasonally adjusted and are generally published the seasonally adjusted composite index compared to the previous month. For some countries (Canada, China, Japan, Mexico, USA) there is more than one measurement PMI manufacturing, and regional activity indices for UK and U.S. Aggregate Indices to the European Union (EU) and other global are published on a monthly and a quarterly indicator for emerging countries. The following tables show the evolution of PMI indices for 37 countries during the years 2011 and 2012, and a new global manufacturing PMI added, using as weights the GDP measured at PPP, as estimated by the IMF data for 2012.
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During 2011 only two months in global manufacturing activity had a clear expectation of contraction Weight Manufacturing PMI % Reference Country 1.39% Aust ralian Indus try Group Australia 0.52% Bank Austria Austria 3.41% HSBC Brazil 2.09% See detail below Canad a 17.86% See detail below Ch ina 0.41% HSBC Czech Rep. 0.30% DILF Denmark 3.25% MARKIT France 4.61% MARKIT / BME Germany 0.41% MARKIT Greece 0.52% HSBC - composite index Hong Kong 0.28% MLBKT Hungary 6.80% HSBC India 1.75% HSBC Indonesia 0.28% NCB Ireland 0.36% IPLMA Israel 2.65% MARKIT / ADACI Italy 6.66% MARKIT / JMMA Japan 2.34% HSBC Korea 2.54% See detail below Mexico 1.02% NEVI Netherlands 0.19% Business NZ New Zealand 0.40% NIMA Norway 1.16% HSBC Poland 3.62% HSBC Russia 1.07% SABB HSBC Saudi Arabia 0.47% SIPMM Singapore 0.83% BER - KAGISO South Africa 2.03% MARKIT Spain 0.57% SILF Sweden 0.52% SVME / CREDIT SUISSE Switzerland 1.30% HSBC Taiwan 1.62% HSBC Turkey 0.39% HSBC UAE 3.34% MARKIT / CIPS UK 22.58% See detail below USA 0.46% HSBC Vietnam 100.0% W orld Ma nu fa ct urin g PM I (GDP a t PPP) MARKIT Eu ro a re a HSBC- Emerging Markets (EMI) Emerging JP Morgan Glo ba l More than one PMI survey Country RBC IVEY Canada Canada average CFLP (Chinese) HSBC China China average INEGI – NSA IIEEM – original s eries Mexico HSBC Mexico average Selected regional Mfg. PMI (see below) ISM Report On Business USA MARKIT US average US Average Regional Mfg. - as if it were PMI CHICAGO B. BAROMETER Dallas Manufacturing as if it were PMI ISM-NY - NEW YORK CITY REPORT ON BUSINESS Empire State Mfg - Current general conditions
Dec-10 46.3 57.7 52.4 58.9 54.2 58.4 63.0 57.2 60.7 43.1 55.0 54.0 56.7 52.2 59.1 54.7 48.3 53.9 50.9 57.5 53.1 55.2 56.3 53.5 61.3 50.7 52.2 51.5 60.2 60.6 54.7 56.4 53.0 58.3 58.6
2011 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 46.7 51.1 47.9 48.4 47.7 52.9 43.4 43.3 42.3 47.4 47.8 50.2 60.3 61.9 60.6 57.0 55.6 53.0 50.8 50.1 48.7 48.0 47.6 49.0 53.1 54.6 53.2 50.7 50.8 49.0 47.8 46.0 45.5 46.5 48.7 49.1 46.8 70.8 73.2 57.1 60.2 56.4 50.0 55.7 55.4 54.1 56.6 58.8 53.7 52.0 52.6 52.4 51.8 50.5 50.0 50.4 50.6 50.7 48.4 49.5 60.5 59.8 58.6 59.0 55.9 55.1 53.4 53.4 52.3 51.7 48.6 49.2 62.2 64.9 63.3 63.2 59.6 59.1 58.3 54.7 63.0 42.9 47.5 58.1 54.9 55.7 55.4 57.5 54.9 52.5 50.5 49.1 48.2 48.5 47.3 48.9 60.5 62.7 60.9 62.0 57.7 54.6 52.0 50.9 50.3 49.1 47.9 48.4 42.8 42.8 45.4 46.8 44.5 45.5 45.2 43.3 43.2 40.5 40.9 42.0 55.2 53.7 54.9 52.9 52.2 50.3 51.4 47.8 45.9 49.0 48.7 49.7 54.7 57.0 53.9 56.9 52.3 54.4 52.1 50.1 50.8 48.2 47.8 48.6 56.8 57.9 57.9 58.0 57.5 55.3 53.6 52.6 50.4 52.0 51.0 54.2 55.8 58.5 56.6 51.4 53.5 51.6 57.5 53.4 55.0 55.6 53.5 63.8 50.5 53.0 52.0 61.5 59.9 59.8 57.2 54.2 62.0 60.5
56.7 48.0 59.0 52.9 53.4 52.7 60.7 52.6 57.5 53.8 55.2 63.4 52.3 52.6 52.1 60.9 62.2 55.8 58.5 54.3 61.5 62.5
55.7 48.5 56.2 46.4 52.8 55.0 58.1 49.2 56.5 54.8 55.6 62.8 50.1 54.3 51.6 58.6 59.5 55.6 56.1 54.7 56.7 61.8
56.0 49.2 55.5 45.7 51.7 52.2 59.2 52.4 55.3 54.4 52.1 62.7 52.5 54.3 50.6 59.8 58.5 58.2 52.7 57.5 54.4 59.8
51.8 54.4 52.8 51.3 51.2 53.8 55.1 54.4 56.1 52.6 50.7 62.6 50.8 54.0 48.2 56.1 58.1 54.9 50.6 56.0 52.1 54.9
49.8 52.3 49.9 50.7 51.1 54.4 52.1 53.9 55.9 51.2 50.6 62.8 50.4 55.0 47.3 52.9 54.2 49.9 52.3 55.2 51.4 54.5
48.2 49.4 50.1 52.1 51.3 52.4 51.4 52.9 56.4 52.9 49.8 60.0 49.3 46.4 45.6 50.1 53.8 46.1 52.3 53.3 49.4 52.9
49.7 48.4 47.0 51.9 49.7 53.0 50.7 53.3 55.5 51.8 49.9 57.9 49.4 48.9 45.3 48.7 52.0 45.2 48.8 50.9 49.0 50.9
47.3 44.3 48.3 49.3 47.5 51.5 48.9 51.1 54.4 50.2 50.0 56.3 48.3 52.5 43.7 48.1 49.3 44.5 51.5 52.3 51.1 52.0
50.1 50.7 43.3 50.6 48.0 52.7 48.0 46.3 51.1 51.7 50.4 56.7 49.5 51.2 43.9 49.8 47.7 43.7 53.3 53.4 47.8 50.7
48.5 43.8 44.0 49.1 47.1 52.6 46.0 46.1 49.5 49.5 52.6 58.1 48.7 51.8 43.8 47.6 45.6 43.9 52.3 52.5 47.7 52.8
48.6 42.7 44.3 50.2 46.4 51.3 46.2 52.1 47.3 48.8 51.6 57.7 49.5 50.3 43.7 48.9 49.1 47.1 52.0 51.7 49.7 54.2
55.5 56.1 57.3 56.4 55.2 53.6 52.6 51.2 50.4 50.2 49.9 49.8 50.9 57.1 57.3 59.0 57.5 58.0 54.6 52.0 50.4 49.0 48.5 47.1 46.4 46.9 55.7 55.0 54.2 52.0 52.4 55.6 57.2 57.4 5 5.7 55.0 53.0 52.3 50.7 50.2 49.8 49.9 49.6 5 0.8 Dec-10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 56.3 54.8 52.8 53.1 54.9 55.0 53.7 53.3 54.0 58.9 46.8 70.8 73.2 57.8 65.5 59.9 46.8 56.4 55.7 54.4 59.9 63.5 58.9 46.8 70.8 73.2 57.1 60.2 56.4 50.0 55.7 55.4 54.1 56.6 58.8 53.9 52.9 52.2 53.4 52.9 52.0 50.9 50.7 50.9 51.2 50.4 49.0 50.3 54.4 54.5 51.7 51.8 51.8 51.6 50.1 49.3 49.9 49.9 51.0 47.7 48.7 54.2 53.7 52.0 52.6 52.4 51.8 50.5 50.0 50.4 50.6 50.7 48.4 49.5 50.7 52.3 52.6 55.8 51.2 53.8 55.2 54.3 54.3 52.6 53.6 51.8 50.8 51.0 50.9 52.7 54.2 53.3 53.7 53.5 50.6 51.6 50.3 51.7 53.5 51.8 50.9 58.7 58.5
51.6 60.3 60.8
52.7 63.6 61.4
55.0 62.4 61.2
52.2 59.3 60.4
53.8 56.3 53.5
54.4 53.7 55.3
52.4 55.0 50.9
53.0 51.3 50.6
51.5 52.5 51.6
52.7 50.6 50.8
52.6 52.8 52.7
51.3 54.5 53.9
58.6 58.7 66.8 54.3
60.5 60.3 68.8 50.5 66.7 55.1
62.5 63.6 71.2 53.9 72.8 56.6
61.8 62.4 70.6 54.7 67.2 57.2
59.8 59.3 67.6 52.6 57.9 59.0
54.9 56.3 56.6 52.1 61.3 55.2
54.5 53.7 61.1 51.7 54.1 48.0
52.9 55.0 58.8 53.9 58.9 48.4
50.9 51.3 58.1 49.7 49.6 47.6
52.0 52.5 61.3 51.0 50.1 47.6
50.7 50.6 59.3 51.1 45.7 46.3
52.8 52.8 62.5 47.9 49.9 50.9
54.2 54.5 62.2 49.2 51.7 54.8
55.0
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During 2012, for 6 consecutive months, global manufacturing activity had a clear expectation of contraction, with an emerging trend reversal in December 2012. Manufacturing PMI Reference Country 1.39% Australian Industry Group Australia 0.52% Bank Austria Austria 3.41% HSBC Brazil 2.09% See detail below Canada 17.86% See detail below China 0.41% HSBC Czech Rep. 0.30% DILF Denmark 3.25% MARKIT France 4.61% MARKIT / BME Germany 0.41% MARKIT Greece 0.52% HSBC - composite index Hong Kong 0.28% MLBKT Hungary 6.80% HSBC India 1.75% HSBC Indonesia 0.28% NCB Ireland 0.36% IPLMA Israel 2.65% MARKIT / ADACI Italy 6.66% MARKIT / JMMA Japan 2.34% HSBC Korea 2.54% See detail below Mexico 1.02% NEVI Netherlands 0.19% Business NZ New Zealand 0.40% NIMA Norway 1.16% HSBC Poland 3.62% HSBC Russia 1.07% SABB HSBC Saudi Arabia 0.47% SIPMM Singapore 0.83% BER - KAGISO South Africa 2.03% MARKIT Spain 0.57% SILF Sweden 0.52% SVME / CREDIT SUISSE Switzerland 1.30% HSBC Taiwan 1.62% HSBC Turkey 0.39% HSBC UAE 3.34% MARKIT / CIPS UK 22.58% See detail below USA 0.46% HSBC Vietnam 100.0% World Manufacturing PMI (see note) MARKIT Euro area HSBC- Emerging Markets (EMI) Emerging JP Morgan Glo bal More than one PMI survey Co un try RBC IVEY Canada Canada average CFLP (Chinese) HSBC China China average INEGI – NSA IIEEM – original series Mexico HSBC Mexico average Selected regional Mfg. PMI (see below) ISM Report On Business USA MARKIT US average US Average Regional Mfg. - as if it were PMI CHICAGO B. BAROMETER Dallas Manufacturing as if it were PMI Richmond – Mfg. Activity as if it were PMI ISM-NY- NEW YORK CITYREPORT ON BUSINESS Empire State Mfg - Current general conditions %
Jan 51.6 51.8 50.6 57.4 49.7 48.8 53.2 48.5 51.0 41.0 51.9 49.8 57.5 48.3 36.3 46.8 50.7 49.2 51.8 49.0 51.0 54.7 52.2 50.8 60.0 48.7 52.7 45.1 51.4 47.3 48.9 51.7 52.4 52.1 55.5 52.0 48.8 51.3 Jan 50.6 64.1 57.4 50.5 48.8 49.7 52.0 51.7 51.8 56.8 54.1 55.5 56.8 60.2 53.6 54.3 60.1 56.1
Feb M ar 51.3 49.5 52.0 51.5 51.4 51.1 59.2 58.0 50.3 50.7 50.5 52.1 54.8 51.2 50.0 46.7 50.2 48.4 37.7 41.3 52.8 52.0 51.2 57.7 56.6 54.7 50.8 49.7 51.5 44.5 46.3 47.8 47.9 50.5 51.1 50.7 52.0 53.2 53.6 50.3 49.6 57.6 53.9 56.2 58.8 50.0 50.1 50.7 50.8 59.6 58.7 50.4 50.2 55.4 53.4 45.0 44.5 50.3 50.2 49.0 51.1 52.7 54.1 49.6 49.6 52.0 52.3 51.5 51.9 55.8 56.3 50.0 52.4 52.3 49.0 47.7 53.6 51.2 51.1 Fe b M ar 51.8 52.4 66.5 63.5 59.2 58.0 51.0 53.1 49.6 48.3 50.3 50.7 52.7 54.0 53.7 52.8 53.9 53.2 53.6 59.2 59.0 52.4 53.4 56.5 55.8 56.3 59.2 59.0 64.0 62.2 54.0 53.1 55.9 53.5 63.1 67.4 59.2 59.0
Apr May J un 43.9 42.4 47.2 51.2 50.2 50.1 49.3 49.3 48.5 53.0 57.6 51.9 51.3 49.4 49.2 49.7 47.6 49.4 63.4 52.6 52.4 46.9 44.7 45.2 46.2 45.2 45.0 40.7 43.1 40.1 50.3 49.4 49.8 46.9 52.3 52.8 54.9 54.8 55.0 50.5 48.1 50.2 50.1 51.2 53.1 53.2 51.0 47.8 43.8 44.8 44.6 50.7 50.7 49.9 51.9 51.0 49.4 53.7 54.4 55.1 49.0 47.6 48.9 47.6 55.9 50.0 52.7 53.8 46.3 49.2 48.9 48.0 52.9 53.2 51.0 60.4 60.4 59.7 49.7 50.4 50.4 52.6 52.7 48.8 43.5 42.0 41.1 50.2 49.0 48.4 46.9 45.4 48.1 51.2 50.5 49.2 52.3 50.2 51.4 53.5 53.8 53.2 50.2 45.9 48.4 5 5.4 53.4 5 1.2 49.5 48.3 46.6 51.6 50.5 49.8 45.9 45.1 45.1 53.2 5 1.4 50.6 4 9.1 A pr M ay Ju n 53.3 54.7 54.8 52.7 60.5 49.0 53.0 57.6 51.9 53.3 50.4 50.2 49.3 48.4 48.2 51.3 49.4 49.2 52.0 53.6 53.8 52.7 54.3 55.5 56.3 55.2 55.9 53.7 54.4 55.1 55.3 52.6 51.5 54.8 53.5 49.7 56.0 54.0 52.5 55.4 53.4 51.2 55.3 52.6 51.5 56.2 52.7 52.9 51.0 51.6 53.5 54.8 51.7 49.6 61.2 49.9 49.7 53.2 57.3 52.1
2012 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Chg Direction 40.3 45.3 44.1 45.2 44.3 44.3 0.0 Contracting 47.4 46.7 45.1 44.8 49.3 48.1 -1.2 Contracting 48.7 49.3 49.8 50.2 52.2 51.1 -1.1 Expanding 58.0 57.8 56.4 54.9 49.0 51.6 2.7 Expanding 49.7 48.4 48.9 49.9 50.6 51.1 0.5 Expanding 49.5 48.7 48.0 47.2 48.2 46.0 -2.2 Contracting 46.9 51.0 49.9 55.9 56.6 57.0 0.4 Expanding 43.4 46.0 42.7 43.7 44.5 44.6 0.1 Contracting 43.0 44.7 47.4 46.0 46.8 46.0 -0.8 Contracting 41.9 42.1 42.2 41.0 41.8 41.4 -0.4 Contracting 50.3 50.5 49.6 50.5 52.2 51.7 -0.5 Expanding 51.9 49.6 52.4 49.9 52.1 48.9 -3.2 Contracting 52.9 52.8 52.8 52.9 53.7 54.7 1.0 Expanding 51.4 51.6 50.5 51.9 51.5 50.7 -0.8 Expanding 53.9 50.9 51.8 52.1 52.4 51.4 -1.0 Expanding 41.9 35.2 38.0 37.6 43.7 44.1 0.4 Contracting 44.3 43.6 45.7 45.5 45.1 46.7 1.6 Contracting 47.9 47.7 48.0 46.9 46.5 45.0 -1.5 Contracting 47.2 47.5 45.7 47.4 48.2 50.1 1.9 Stable 53.9 54.2 52.7 54.0 54.0 54.0 -0.1 Expanding 48.9 49.7 50.7 48.9 48.2 49.6 1.4 Contracting 49.5 47.5 48.5 50.3 48.8 50.1 1.3 Stable 48.8 48.8 49.2 49.0 50.2 50.0 -0.2 Stable 49.7 48.3 47.0 47.3 48.2 48.5 0.3 Contracting 52.0 51.0 52.8 52.9 52.3 50.0 -2.3 Stable 58.1 58.3 60.3 59.8 57.0 58.9 1.9 Expanding 49.8 49.1 48.7 48.3 48.8 48.6 -0.2 Contracting 51.1 50.8 48.3 47.1 49.5 47.4 -2.1 Contracting 42.3 44.0 44.5 43.5 45.3 44.6 -0.7 Contracting 50.6 45.1 44.7 43.1 43.2 44.6 1.4 Contracting 48.6 46.7 43.6 46.1 48.5 49.5 1.0 Contracting 47.5 46.1 45.6 47.8 47.4 50.6 3.2 Expanding 49.4 50.0 52.2 52.5 51.6 53.1 1.5 Expanding 53.4 53.3 53.8 53.8 53.7 55.6 1.9 Expanding 45.2 49.6 48.1 47.3 49.1 51.4 2.3 Expanding 5 0.8 50.4 51.0 5 0.1 51.1 5 1.8 0.7 Exp an din g 43.6 47.9 49.2 48.7 50.5 49.3 -1.2 Contracting 49.2 49.2 49.4 49.4 49.9 50.2 0.3 Expanding 44.0 45.1 46.1 45.4 46.2 46.1 -0.1 Contracting 52.9 0.7 Expanding 52.2 4 8.4 48.1 48.8 4 8.8 49.6 50.2 0.6 Expanding Ju l A ug Se p Oct No v De c Ch g Dire ct io n 53.1 53.0 52.4 51.4 50.4 50.4 0.0 Expanding 62.8 62.5 60.4 58.3 47.5 52.8 5.3 Expanding 58.0 57.8 56.4 54.9 49.0 51.6 2.7 Expanding 50.1 49.2 49.8 50.2 50.6 50.6 0.0 Expanding 49.3 47.6 47.9 49.5 50.5 51.5 1.0 Expanding 49.7 48.4 48.9 49.9 50.6 51.1 0.5 Expanding 54.0 54.5 53.8 54.6 53.6 52.0 -1.6 Expanding 52.4 53.0 49.9 52.0 52.8 52.8 -0.1 Expanding 55.2 55.1 54.4 55.5 55.6 57.1 1.5 Expanding 53.9 54.2 52.7 54.0 54.0 54.0 -0.1 Expanding 51.1 50.0 50.4 47.6 50.9 50.7 -0.2 Expanding 49.8 49.6 51.5 51.7 49.5 50.7 1.2 Expanding 51.4 51.5 51.1 51.0 52.8 54.0 1.2 Expanding 50.8 50.4 51.0 50.1 51.1 51.8 0.7 Expanding 51.1 50.0 50.4 47.6 50.9 50.7 -0.2 Expanding 53.7 53.0 49.7 49.9 50.4 51.6 1.2 Expanding 51.8 51.8 51.0 48.8 49.3 48.9 -0.4 Contracting 41.3 45.5 52.2 46.6 54.4 52.6 -1.8 Expanding 55.2 51.4 52.9 45.9 52.5 54.3 1.8 Expanding 53.5 48.1 46.2 46.6 47.8 46.4 -1.5 Contracting
Rate of Change Unchange Faster Slower from contracting Faster Faster Faster Unchange Faster Faster Slower fromexpanding Faster Slower Slower Slower Slower Faster from contracting Unchange Slower from contracting Slower Fast er Faster Faster Faster Slower Slower from contracting Faster Faster from contracting Fa st er fromexpanding from contracting Unchange Faster from contracting Ra te o f Ch an ge Unchange from contracting from contracting Unchange Faster Faster Slower Unchange Faster Unchange Slower from contracting Faster Faster Slower Faster Faster Slower Faster Faster
For managers expectations for 2013 remain in expansive groundsit would be appropriate as far as possible, remain expansionary monetary and fiscal policies.
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