SUSTAINABLE ENERGY POLICY FOR KUWAIT
5th Annual Middle East District District Cooling Summit November 2013 2013
CONTENTS
Real economic diversification is small, the Economy is almost entirely dependant on oil revenue. Fiscal price could reach real price by 2017. Fiscal margins necessary to withstand price volatility and to develop the Future Generations income. By 2030 about 700,000- 900,000 barrels of oil per day will burned to generate electricity and desalinate water.
Break Even
Euro-zone remains in crisis, Asian demand is affected Oil prices are increasingly volatile to political instability and uncertain supplier policies Coordinated world emergency action on Climate Change will accelerate conservation and further reduce demand Makes alternative sources by other producers, Shale oil with technology and production is already a major contributor. Development of alternative technologies & fuels (Advanced hybrids, Batteries & Hydrogen) will increasingly replace oil in transport fuel role.
WORLD DEMAND OECD stagnant, growing EU crisis
QUOTA (not Related to population) INCREASING FISCAL OIL PRICES
Social Spending National Development Plans
Recovering Producers Ira , Lib a QUOTA Reductions
OPEC forced to maintain High Prices
Makes Shale Oil, Arctic Deepwater Economic
MEDIUM TERM PROBABLE LONG TERM CERTAIN Competing Supply
ASIA – High Growth (BUT affected by world economy
Competing Supply
Accelerates conservation Reduces subsidies in consumer Nations
LONG TERM Decisive Climate Change action Alternative Transport Fuels
Demand reduction
Demand reduction
OIL MARKET
Quota Reductions Probable in Medium Term , Certain in Long Term
POWER AND WATER DEMAND
DEMAND
GW MIG/D
2015 15.3 604
2020 21.6 818
2025 27.0 976
2030 31.3 1132
PLANT Power
GW
SPP GT
8.3 10.0
12.0 12.5
16.7 12.5
21.3 12.4
Desal
MIGD
MSF RO
568 60
789 160
939 160
829 360
COSTS
BKD/Y
Fuel Capex Opex Total
2.7 0.4 0.2 3.4
4.4 0.8 0.4 5.6
6.1 0.5 0.4 7.0
7.5 0.7 0.4 8.7
GDP BKD Cost of E&W as % GDP
56.4 6.4
64.5 8.1
69.8 9.6
82.9 10.6
Total oil Production Fuel as % production
Mbbl/d
3.0 12.1
3.2 15.1
3.1 19.3
3.3 20.9
EMISSIONS
MTCO2/Y
48
66
85
99
FORECAST BEING REVISED UP FOR 2013
PEAK ELECTRICAL (GW)
PEAK WATER (MIG/D)
35
1250 Act ual
30 25
1000
Efffect of National Development Plans
20
Const Per Capita
15
750 500
10 Forecast
5
250
Population 6.2 M in 2030
0
0
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030
PER CAPITA PEAK WATER (G/D)
PEAK ELECTRICAL (KW) 6
200
5 150 4 3
100
2 50 1 0 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030
0 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030
POWERPLANT REQUIRED (GW)
DESALINATION (MIGD) 1250
35
FUEL SUPPLY & DEMAND (MBoe) 300
30
250
1000
LNG & Gas Oil
25 200
750
20
Crude 150
15
500
Avalable Gas
100
10 2012 Estimate
250
2012 Estimate
2013 Estimate
5
0
0 2013
2017
2021
2025
Available HFO
50
2029
0
2013 2017
2021
2025 2029
2013
2017
2021
2025
2029
Fuel for E&W 20% of national production by 2030. Exceeds available HFO and Gas by 80%. Shortfall met by high value products (Crude &Gas Oil ) Construction of over 20 GW power and 640 MIGD desalination by 2030 Per Capita demand (already among the highest in the World) will increase by - 60% power and 50% water by 2030. Rising atmospheric emissions and releases into the Gulf
SAVINGS POTENTIAL )
(
Short-medium term:
Building code: Energy saving coding for new buildings –will save 20% Co-generation + district cooling for new cities - will save 35%
Long-term:
Renewable energy, target is 15% by 2030
CONVENTIONAL POWER SYSTEM
COCO -GENERATION GENERATION & DISTRICT COOLING
400m2 Villa - %Savings (individual measures relative to R6 2010) 40 35
Peak Load
30
35
Electrical Energy
25
30 24
20
23
15 10 5
13
12
11 6
6
7
4
6
6
9
9
3
13 9
10
7
0
* T T T * * * @ H n s R R R P V @ / / n / * o * C w i o W W W A o t i c t n g e s d K K a i K l t u c 5 n 4 r i u h 5 0 2 . . . s t a n 1 . i g i 1 1 W 0 l n I n s L p C o D S S m D X D C e d D X A p l / C d L a r c e F 1 0 t n C v a y S d g A e r n E . Lighting and appliances are important for energy demand. PV & District cooling have similar potential –significance of former increases with building efficiency . .
OVERALL SAVINGS POTENTIAL
- NEW CITY
INCLUDING DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SOLUTIONS Peak Generation (MW) and Fuel Energy (MBoe) Required 3000
18
2500
15
2000
12
W M1500
9
1000
6
500
3
0
0 1 0 2 6 R
r e w o P y t i l i t U X D
R62010 DX Utility Power DC, Utility Power Distributed pow er, Engine s Distributed Power, CCGT
r e w o P y t i l i t U , C D
r a e Y / e o B M
Peak Load MW (Left Axis)
Fuel Energy (Right Axis)
0
s e n i g n E , r e w o p d e t u b i r t s i D
T G C C , r e w o P d e t u b i r t s i D
Peak Load Saving MW % 2477 1509 39 1211 51 1018 59 1089 56
T G C O , r e w o P d e t u b i r t s i D
Fuel Energy with PV (Right Axis )
Fuel MBoe/Y 16.2 10.4 8.7 4.6 3.9
Saving % 36 46 72 76
Fuel with PV Saving MBoe/Y % 7.6 5.9 3.1 2.7
53 64 81 84
SOLAR & WIND
STEAM TURBINES AND GAS TURBINES 25
25
20
20
r h W15 K C E O C 10 L
15
10
Wind
RH SPP 5
" F" CCGT
5
CSP UPV
0
0
70
90
110
130
2015
2020
2025
2030
Crude Price $/Bbl
PV costs reducing rapidly, dominated by Chinese manufacture Wind and probably Rooftop and Utility PV competitive with RHSPP now Depends on local conditions, and intermittency , now being confirmed by pilot projects.
17
1600 Building & AC Efficiency (including District Cooling )
1400 1200
Building applied PV
1000 Y / U T B T
800
Resultant Demand
600 400
Domestic Gas
200 HFO
0
Energy efficiency and renewable energy regulator body: Policies, enforcement, incentive programes, BOT/BOO models for RE.
Co-generation and District cooling for new cities maximizing gas availability is required
Efficient utility: Enhance power plants outputs, minimize grid losses, smart grid, DSM
Efficient Buildings: Energy saving code for new buildings, energy auditing for existing buildings and retrofit, solar PV for governmental.
Consumers behavior: Public awareness, smart and prepaid meters, changing tariff
THANKS
FOR QUESTIONS
BACKUP
140 120
Price Hawks
100
Price Conservatives
L b 80 B / $ 60
80
40 20
85
95
105
107 110
105
115
115
120
126
53
0
a r t Q a
a i t i a l l a a b o e a w z g r u e n A u K A i n u d V e a S
a y b L i
E A U
r q i a i a a o r r r e I a d g g e l i u A N E c
Source
n a r I
150
Current Policies Scenario
120 New Policies ) 0 1 0 2 ( l e r r a b r e p s r a l l o D
Scenario 90 450 Scenario
60
30
0 1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2035
Production & Exports (MBls/day)
KPC P lanned Production
3.5 3.0
Domestic Consumption (Petrochem & Transport)
2.5
Domestic Consumption (Power & Water)
2.0 1.5
Exports with Reduced Quota
1.0
Poss ible Reduced Quota Due to Alternative Supplies
0.5 0.0 3 1 0 2
5 1 0 2
7 1 0 2
9 1 0 2
1 2 0 2
3 2 0 2
5 2 0 2
7 2 0 2
9 2 0 2
Exports @ Planned Capacity
Fiscal Oil Price $/Bbl 200
KPC planned production
180 160
with s ustainable energy policy
140 120
Ass umed OPEC Quota Reduction
100 80 1 1 0 2
3 1 0 2
5 1 0 2
7 1 0 2
9 1 0 2
1 2 0 2
3 2 0 2
5 2 0 2
7 2 0 2
9 2 0 2
with s ustainable energy policy
Assumptions – quota restriction to 2.5 Mbls/day , 10% contribution to FGF
26
Peak Load 50 40
W K
38
30
22% 30
36%
20% 41%
20
36%
12%
23
22
18
16
10
9
9
5
0 2010 Code
2013 Code
PV Saving
DC Saving
PV+DC Saving
Ventilation
Possible 2017 Code
PV Saving
DC Saving
PV+DC Saving
People
Plug
Lighting
Window s
Roof
Walls Saving PV
Saving District Cooling
Series12
% Incremental Saving (2010 baseline)
Peak Load
Electrical Energy 120 104 90
25%
23%
18%
78
Y / r h 60 W M
42% 54
23%
10%
60
59
50 36
35
30
26
0
2010 Code
2013 Code
PV Saving
DC Saving
PV+DC Saving
Possible 2017 Code
PV Saving
DC Saving
PV+DC Saving
Building Energy Intensities
Alternative Generation 2020
2030
New
% Application KWhr/M2/Y
100 160
100 130
Existing
% Application KWhr/M2/Y
20 200
50 160
% Total
2020
2030
2
10
