Martial Law, Mindanao and the Mind of Duterte

FRANCISCO ASHLEY L. ACEDILLO ACEDILLO Former Congressman, Magdalo Party-list June June 29, 2017

Martial Law, Mindanao and the Mind Mi nd of of Du Dute tert rtee A LTC - LAST THURSDAY COLLOQUIUM Was There Enough Basis to Declare Mar tial Law?

1) The national national leadership, especially the national national security cluster, cluster, was abroad in Russia. Russia. Nor was the National Security Council convened - supposedly to make an accurate determination of vital facts as a basis of of whether or not to declare Martial Martial Law. Law. Because of this, President Duterte preemptively and erroneously declared Martial Law over over the entire island of Mindanao. 2) This decision decision belied belied the follow following ing statemen statements ts coming coming from from the very members members of the Cabinet’ Cabinet’ss security cluster and/or the country’s security officials officials1 : - According According to military officials, officials, the situation in Marawi was under control and the military was on top of the situation before, before, shortly before and at the time Proclamation 216 was issued; - Four hours before President Duterte issued Proclamation 216 in Moscow, National Security Adviser Hermogenes Esperon Jr. Jr. categorically said that the Ar med Forces Forces of the Philippines was in full control of the situation; - About two hours before the proclamation, AFP Chief of Staff Eduardo Año, Año, in a television television interview said the military was in full control control of the situation in Marawi; Marawi;

1http://newsinfo.inquirer http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/905066/no-sufficient-factual-basis-for-dutertes-mart .net/905066/no-sufficient-factual-basis-for-dutertes-martial-law-saysial-law-says-

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INSTITUTE FOR POLICY P OLICY,, STRATEGY, STRATEGY, AND DEVELOPMENTAL STUDIES, INC.

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- One hour before the issuance of Proclamation 216, the military reiterated that they they are on top of the situation, and; and; - Twenty Twenty minutes before issuance of Proclamation 216, AFP spokesperson Col. Eduardo Arevalo asserted in a briefing that the situation in Marawi has stabilized. 3) Further proof of the President’s erroneous decision were were the glaring inaccuracies in the statement of facts included by the government government in its official report to Congress 48 hours after the declaration of Martial Law, Law, to wit: - That the Chief Chief of Police of the town of Malabang, Malabang, Maguindanao had had been beheaded (he was not and was very much alive); - That a hospital in Marawi City was taken over and burned down by the Maute group; g roup; and - That there has been an “invasion” citing as proof proof the presence of several foreigners foreigners among the terrorists that occupied Marawi City.

What About the Maute/ISIS Threat?

The threat presented by the Maute Group cannot be downplayed.

However, However, it would

also be a disservice to the public to create the impression that this same group - which military and government estimates would put at no more than 500 armed members (conservative estimates put them at roughly 200 to 300) - is capable of wreaking havoc havoc all over the country. country.

Consider these antecedent antecedent facts: In 2016 alone, alone, the AFP had already already launched at least three full-scale military operations centered centered on the Lanao town town of Butig. Butig. In those operations, operations, the Maute suffered 80 casualties casualties (63 killed, 17 wounded). already been been degraded by by then.

This means that their manpower had

But given given the intricate intricate and intertwined ethnic and political

relationships existing in Mindanao, Mindanao, it would leave little reason to wonder when members of the BIFF, Ansar al Khilafa, Abu Sayyaf, and the Maute end up fighting side-by-side with each other against government troops in Marawi City.

But why why the coalescing coalescing of these terrorist groups? The single biggest factor to consider here would be the fact that in less than two years, erstwhile Abu Sayyaf/Basilan faction leader Isnilon Hapilon went from a mere pledgee to the ISIS cause in the summer of 2014 to the


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Islamic State’s designated emir (leader) in Southeast Asia - with no less than Filipino, Malaysian and Indonesian ISIS fighters calling for others to fight for ISIS under under the banner of Hapilon2 . With the staggering staggering battlefield losses of ISIS in Iraq and Syria and the rapid loss of their previously-occupied territories there, it has now become a less-costly and more viable alternative for them to encourage affiliated groups to wage their Salafi jihadist campaigns elsewhere. Unfortunately for the Philippines, Philippines, this clarion call for terrorists has found a center of gravity here in Southeast Asia, located in what security researchers call the Mindanao-Sabah-Sulawesi Triangle or Triad.

But going back to Maute, are they they the biggest threat to national security to emerge out of Mindanao? Consider these historical facts for a moment moment3:

The Armed Forces has faced greater odds and has had to deal with an enemy force far larger than it faced in Marawi Marawi City. City.

Even assuming assuming that we increase the number of Maute

2https://www.counterextremism.com/extremists/isnilon-hapilon 3Resear Research ch

courtesy of the Institute for Policy, Strategy & Developmental Studies, Inc. (IPSDI). Data was provided by the Office of Sen. Antonio F. F. Trillanes IV, Senate of the Philippines.


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fighters found in the table above from 50-100 to about 200-300 based on my earlier estimates with the exception of the Ipil Massacre - the siege in Marawi would have seen smaller numbers of the enemy compared to what the AFP faced (in descending order) during the 2000 All-Out War, the Sulu and Cabatangan siege, and the Zamboanga siege.

So why, indeed, did the President have to declare Martial Law? (It could have been argued that such a declaration would have have been warranted, if only to cover the entire province province of Lanao del Sur.)

Read His Lips (And It Might Just Reveal His Mind)

It would be hard not to notice Pres. Duterte’s penchant for sprinkling his public remarks with the words words “Martial “Martial Law”.

In at least six documented instances when he became the

country’s Chief Executive, Executive, he had either floated or positively p ositively expressed expressed his preference for declaring Martial Law Law (and mostly within the context of prosecuting his war on drugs). So on an average average of once a month beginning August 2016, he has mentioned “Martial Law” each succeeding month in his public speeches (even (even doing it twice in December last year). Incidentally, Incidentally, after his last public mention of Martial Law in a speech last January 14, 2017, 2017, he made specific mention of the “looming threat of ISIS” in another speech four days after, after, on January 18, 2017.

I am not ready to go on a limb and declare that there is a connection between and among the President’s President’s repeated mention of Martial Law, Law, his playing up of the threat of ISIS in the country, and his open and very public public challenge for the Maute group to attack Marawi City December of last year. year. Allow me, me, however however,, to dig up certain certain obscure matters. matters. Two of them, in fact.

One is the psychological psychological report of clinical psychologist psychologist Natividad Dayan Dayan as part of the record of annulment proceedings between one Rodrigo Rodrigo Duterte and Elizabeth ZimmermanDuterte. People People would be quick to dismiss that like many annulment proceedings, proceedings, the findings in this psychological psychological report are largely disputable. disputable. Plus of course the fact that that this document came to light last April 2016 2016 at the height of the electoral heat. heat. As I am neither trained trained in psychology psychology


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nor in political science, permit this non-expert to propound this question: Why did a lawyer, a former city prosecutor, prosecutor, a for mer vice mayor m ayor,, a long-serving mayor m ayor and a putative President not dispute Ms. Dayan’s Dayan’s findings during the deliberations of the court, after the verdict of the court of original jurisdiction, and even when these came to light again last year?

In the realm of governance, governance, much has been said about the wonders that then Mayor Rodrigo Duterte brought to Davao City. City.

Let us assume for the sake of argument that Mr. Mr.

Duterte was singularly instrumental in making Davao City what it is today, consider the flip side of the coin as well. When the myth myth of the “safest city city in the Philippines” was being propagated, propagated, the Philippine National Police’s Police’s very very own crime statistics belied all of this: For the last full year that Mr. Mr. Duterte was Mayor of the city in 2015, Davao was the fourth most crime-ridden city in the country (after Quezon City, City, the City of Manila, and Cebu City) with 37,684 index crimes. What is worse, Davao Davao City recorded in that same year the highest number of murder cases at 1,032.

Which brings me to my next next point. For all his boasting and bluster about about being the bestequipped leader to address the peace and order challenges (before, as Davao City Mayor) now as President and Commander-in-Chief of the nation, nation, is he really up to par? And how does this relate to our concerns with the recent declaration of Martial Law in Mindanao?

I mentioned governance governance early on as a relevant relevant parameter in this discussion. discussion.

Pres.

Duterte’s style of leadership relies on unquestioning obedience, little or no dissent, a license for heavy-handed tactics and a lack of consultation and/or and/or consensus. Simply put, from the time he first became elected mayor mayor of Davao Davao until he relinquished the reins of the city to what would would effectively be hereditary title to the mayorship (to his daughter, Sara, no less and with a Vice Mayor Mayor in the person per son of his son, Paolo), Rodrigo Rodrigo Duterte has evolved evolved from a local warlord like in most Philippine localities into an accomplished autocrat amidst a fragile and flawed democracy that is the Philippines. Philippines. This is the only way he knows how to govern. govern. This has been his template template as Mayor Mayor.. And this will be his template as President. President. I am not fearful of Martial Law Law because the AFP and our our soldiers are its implementors. I fear for the country because of Martial Law’s Law’s progenitor. #


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Martial Law, Mindanao and the Mind of Duterte

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