1.3.2. Market and Capacity Analysis
Acetic acid is one of most important raw materials in petrochemical industry. With a very wide usage, the establishment of an acetic acid plant is very promising. The plant we are going to build is using methanol as raw materials. Molasses are by-product of sugar plants which are 30% of total generated products in sugar plant. Some molasses are exported abroad. Table below shows data about amount of exported molasses which come from sugar extraction or refinery. Indonesia is exporting hundreds of tons of molasses in last 5 years. Producing acetic acid from molasses is a very promising initiative.
Table xx. Exported molasses (result from sugar extraction/refinery) from Indonesia Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total (US $)
Total Weight (tons)
805,548 1,365,993 1,208,919 1,454,712 654,353 Source: BPS data
122 382 217 378 182
The consumption of acetic acid in the world increases increa ses every year since 2010 as shown in graph below. It is mostly used as raw material for vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) production.
Figure xx. Global consumption of acetic acid Source: Tecnon OrbiChem, 2015
Table below shows some leading major acetic acid plants all over the world to give insights about condition of recent acetic acid production capacity in the world. Table xx. Leading major acetic acid plants Production Name Location capacity (tons per year) SEKAB BioFuels & Sweden 20,000 Chemicals AB Indo Acidatama Chemicals Indonesia 33,000 Industry Shaanxi Yanchang China 200,000 Petroleum (Group) Tianji Alkali China 200,000 BP Petrochemicals UK 420,00 Sterling Chemicals USA 544,312 Samsung BP Chemicals South Korea 570,000 Celanese AG China 600,000 Celanese AG USA 1,950,000 Source: Market studies
In this industry, China still take the control either for production or consumption. In 2014, China produced 43% of total global acetic acid production which is around 12.9 million tons. Besides, South and South East Asia only produced 8% of total global production, less than their consumption which is 12% of total global consumption. Detail is shown below.
Figure xx. Supply and demand of acetic acid by region Source: Tecnon OrbiChem, 2015
In Asia, consumption of acetic acid in Indonesia can be categorized as low. Indonesia use only around 140,000 tons. Especially in South East Asia, it is lower than Singapore and Thailand, and relatively similar with Malaysia. Even though the demand in Indonesia is quite low compared to other Asian countries, it is still higher than the domestic production. The existing acetic acid plant in Indonesia cannot fulfill the domestic market demand. In 2016, there is still only one plant which produces acetic acid. The plant is Indo Acidatama Chemicals Industry, located in Solo, Central Java, with around 33,000 tons per year of production capacity. Thus, Indonesia have to import the acetic acid every single year. Table below shows the amount of acetic acid imported to Indonesia in 2010-2014. Table xx. Imported acetic acid to Indonesia Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Total (US $)
Total Weight (tons)
48,258,830 104,391 59,027,464 101,787 51,519,090 104,975 51,369,480 106,612 63,650,018 111,864 Source: BPS data
Year 114,000
d i c 112,000 a c i 110,000 t e c 108,000 a f o ) 106,000 n y t o i t 104,000 t ( n a 102,000 u q t 100,000 r o 2010 p m I
y = 1977x - 4E+06 R² = 0.6965
2011
2012
2013
2014
Year
Figure xx. Trend of acetic acid import to Indonesia in 2010 – 2014
By using extrapolation, we can estimate the import quantity of acetic acid in next few years. Table below shows the estimation.
Table xx. Estimation of imported acetic acid to Indonesia in next few years Year
Total Weight (tons)
2016 2017 2018
113,834 115,811 117,788
Therefore, it will be 117,788 tons per year. In upcoming years, we plan to build an acetic acid plant with 10,000 tons per year of production capacity, which means it can cover around 8.5% of imported quantity in Indonesia. We state this target due to some considerations: a. It is a start-up (new) plant Over the time, after it goes stable, the production capacity may be increased refer to the domestic and international market (supply and demand) condition. b. All molasses (raw material) cannot entirely be supplied by domestic. Tshe production capacity of acetic acid depends on the supply of molasses either from domestic or international supply. At the beginning, it takes time to get the best supplier and obtain procurement excellence (Best cost country source, Request for Proposal, e-auction, bidding, negotiation, spend analysis). c. Trust from buyers It takes time to get the trust from targeted buyers (plants which use acetic acid as their raw materials).
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extrapolation linier / polynomial degree … (ask bu Nana)
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causes which made the import in 2015 decrease significantly
