LTE Spectrum Strategies and Forecasts to 2018

LTE Spectrum Click to edit Master title Strategies and style Forecasts to 2018 webinar Click to edit Master subtitle style

Julian Bright Senior Analyst, Networks October 15, 2013 11/09/2009

Agenda • Introduction • Spectrum forecasts and methodology

• New LTE bands • Carrier aggregation • Conclusions and recommendations

Conclusions www.informatandm.com © Informa UK Limited 2013. All rights reserved

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Introduction • Spectrum licensing for 4G continues around the world, opening up new LTE bands and extending operator choice. Informa has identified 23 frequency bands either in use or expected to be deployed in LTE networks over the next five years; 17 of these are FDD bands, and six are TDD bands. • The number of mobile operators that are launching services in multiple bands is increasing, as they take the opportunity to use newly available bands to extend LTE coverage and capacity. • Momentum continues to gather behind the adoption of Band 3 (1800MHz FDD), driven by spectrum re-farming, coupled with some new licensing of frequencies in the band and strong support from several device manufacturers. • The commercial launch of LTE networks in China, which is expected in the next few months, will significantly boost the addressable market for TDD, which is centered on Bands 38-43. • No single band has yet emerged as the leading candidate for globally harmonized LTEfrequency adoption. www.informatandm.com © Informa UK Limited 2013. All rights reserved

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LTE subscription growth to 2018 • According to the latest forecast from Informa Telecoms & Media, the number of LTE subscriptions worldwide is expected to be around 1.36 billion by end-2018. This reflects a slightly higher rate of growth than was forecast a year ago, though the degree of change varies between countries and regions.

• Higher rates of LTE subscription growth in Asia Pacific’s developed markets (including Japan and South Korea), North America and Africa are offset by slightly slower-than-expected growth in the Middle East, Latin America and Europe. One major reason for significantly slower growth in Asia Pacific’s developing markets is that commercial LTE services in China have been slower to launch than previously anticipated, slightly reducing the overall impact of China’s LTE subscription growth on the global total. www.informatandm.com © Informa UK Limited 2013. All rights reserved

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Global, LTE network launches, 2010-2018

Source: Informa Telecoms & Media www.informatandm.com © Informa UK Limited 2013. All rights reserved

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Spectrum forecasts

www.informatandm.com © Informa UK Limited 2013. All rights reserved

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Forecast outputs • Subscription forecasts and LTE addressable market by spectrum band and 3GPP band number • Forecast network launch dates by band and band number • LTE penetration by population and total subscriptions by region, country, band and band number • Forecast network launch dates by country and operator • LTE world maps showing launch by year and by region, also summarized in tabular form www.informatandm.com © Informa UK Limited 2013. All rights reserved

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LTE operating bands (FDD) Band

Band name

Downlink

Downlink

low (MHz)

high (MHz)

Uplink

Uplink

low (MHz)

high (MHz)

Bandwidth MHz

1

2.1GHz

2110

2170

1920

1980

60

2

PCS1900

1930

1990

1850

1910

60

3 4

DCS1800

1805 2110

1880 2155

1710 1710

1785 1755

75 45

5 6

850M Hz

869 875

894 885

824 830

849 840

25 10

7 8

2.6GHz

2620 925

2690 960

2500 880

2570 915

70 35

9 10

1700M Hz

1844.9 2110

1879.9 2170

1749.9 1710

1784.9 1770

35 60

11 12

1.5GHz

1475.9 729

1495.9 746

1427.9 699

1447.9 716

20 17

13 14

700M Hz Upper

746 758

756 768

777 788

787 798

10 10

17 18

700M Hz Lower B+C

734 860

746 875

704 815

716 830

12 15

19 20

Japan 800M Hz upper

875 791

890 821

830 832

845 862

15 30

21

1.5GHz upper

1495.9

1510.9

1447.9

1462.9

15

22

3.5GHz

3510

3590

3410

3490

80

23 24

2GHz S-Band

2180 1525

2200 1559

2000 1626.5

2020 1660.5

20 34

25 26

PCS1900 + G Bloc k

1930 859

1995 894

1850 814

1915 849

65 35

27 28 31

850M Hz lower

852 758 452.5

869 803 457.5

807 703 462.5

824 748 467.5

17 45 5

AWS

UTRA only

900M Hz

Extended AWS

700M Hz Lower A+B+C

Public safety

Japan 800M Hz lower

800M Hz EDD

L Band

800M Hz iDEN

700M Hz APAC LTE 450M Hz Brazil

Source: 3GPP www.informatandm.com © Informa UK Limited 2013. All rights reserved

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LTE operating bands (TDD) Band

Band name

Downlink low

Downlink

Uplink low

Uplink high

(MHz)

high (MHz)

(MHz)

(MHz)

Bandwidth (MHz)

33

TDD 2000

1900

1920

20

34

TDD 2000

2010

2025

15

35

TDD 1900

1850

1910

60

36

TDD 1900

1930

1990

60

37

TDD PCS

1910

1930

20

38

TDD 2.6GHz

2570

2620

50

39

China TDD 1.9 GHz

1880

1920

40

40

China TDD 2.3 GHz

2300

2400

100

41

TDD 2.5 GHz

2496

2690

194

42

TDD 3.4 GHz

3400

3600

200

43

TDD 3.6 GHz

3600

3800

200

44

700 M Hz APAC

703

803

100

Source: 3GPP


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Key findings on band adoption • By 2018, there will be eight major FDD bands or band groups. In order of addressable market size they will be: Band 7 (2600MHz); Band 3 (1800MHz); Band 4 (2100MHz AWS); Band 1 (2100MHz); Bands 12/13/14/17 (700MHz US); Band 20 (800MHz); Band 28 (700MHz APT); Band 2 (1900MHz).

• Growing support among a number of countries for the Asia Pacific 700MHz band plan (Band 28), means that, despite being adopted later than many other bands, the addressable market for this band will grow quickly. • The major TDD bands will be: Band 40 (2300MHz); Band 41 (2500MHz); Band 39 (1900MHz); Band 38 (2600MHz). • Currently, Band 40 appears likely to be the most widely adopted of the TDD bands, with operators in India, Saudi Arabia, Australia and a number of countries in Africa all planning to adopt the TDD frequencies.


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Current and planned 3GPP Band adoption Global 2600MHz FDD adoption Band number

Description

First used

1

2100FDD

Dec-10

2

1900FDD (PCS 1900)

Sep-10

3

1800FDD (DCS 1800)

Sep-10

4

2100FDD (AWS)

Sep-10

5

850FDD

Sep-11

7

2600FDD

Dec-09

8

900FDD

Mar-13

11

1500FDD (1.5GHz lower)

Dec-12

12

700FDD (Lower A, B, C)

Dec-10

13

700FDD (Upper 700MHz)

Dec-10

14

700FDD (Public safety)

Dec-13

17

700FDD (Lower B, C)

Dec-10

18

800FDD (Japan 800MHz lower)

Dec-12

20

800FDD (Digital dividend)

Dec-09

26

800FDD (800MHz iDEN)

Dec-13

28

700FDD (700MHz APAC)

Dec-13

31

450FDD

Sep-16

38

2600TDD

Dec-11

39

1900TDD (China 1.9GHz)

Dec-13

40

2300TDD

Sep-11

41

2500TDD

Mar-12

42

3400TDD

Jun-12

43

3600TDD

Jun-12

Band adoption – Western Europe


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Global addressable market share 2018, major bands


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Addressable market – methodology

Maximum subs on Band A

Maximum subs on Band B

This gives the addressable market for each band at a certain year

Total country subs

Total forecasted subscriptions for the country at a certain year

Maximum subs on Band C


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Global addressable-market growth: Major FDD bands, 2012-2018


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Global addressable-market growth: 2.6GHz FDD Band 7, 2012-2018


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Growth of the 1800MHz FDD band • Adopted by over 90 operators in 53 countries • Covering Africa, Asia, Australasia, Europe, Latin America and the Middle East

• Major operator groups, including Vodafone, Orange, T-Mobile and Hutchison, are committed to launch LTE at 1800MHz in multiple markets Source: Informa Telecoms & Media

Leading smartphones with LTE1800 band support Manufacturer Apple HTC Huawei Nokia Samsung

Model iPhone 5 One mini Ascend P2 Lumia 1020 Galaxy S4

LTE category

LTE Bands supported (MHz) 3 700/850/1800/1900/2100 3 800/1800/2600 4 800/900/1800/2100 3 800/900/1800/2100/2600 3 700/800/850/1800/2100


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The 700MHz US and APT bands • Widely adopted in US, but there is a lack of harmonization between US operators’ LTE deployments in Bands 12, 13 and 17. • Rapid uptake of 700MHz APT band (Band 28) in the forecast period. • Promising solution to the challenge of deriving a globally harmonized spectrum band for LTE.

Source: Informa Telecoms & Media

APT 700MHz harmonized-band plan (FDD)

• Growing support for the APT 700MHz band (Band 28), and moves to harmonize the 694-790MHz band range for ITU Region 1. www.informatandm.com © Informa UK Limited 2013. All rights reserved

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TDD band adoption

Global addressable market, TDD and FDD

Global addressable market, major TDD bands

• China will lead the charge for TD-LTE adoption, though operators in a growing number of countries have committed to using TDD spectrum. • Band 40 is likely to be the most widely adopted of the TDD bands, including in India, Saudi Arabia, Australia and a number of countries in Africa. China is making 190MHz of spectrum available in Band 41, the same band that is already being used by SoftBank in Japan, and which will also be used by Clearwire in the US. www.informatandm.com © Informa UK Limited 2013. All rights reserved

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Total addressable market by TDD bands, 2012-2018


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New bands


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New bands • 450MHz band:  Recognized by 3GPP and designated as Band 31, it is being used by the Brazilian government to develop LTE for the provision of rural services in the country • 2300MHz band:  The FCC is expected to clear use of the 2300MHz FDD Wireless Communications Services band (2305-2320MHz and 2345-2360MHz) by AT&T, after an accord was struck to protect satellite-radio services that also use part of the band • 1400MHz band:  Frequencies in the L-band (in the 1452-1492MHz range), are under consideration for use to provide a “supplemental” downlink to enhance the capacity of existing paired frequencies and thus support increased demand

• 3.5GHz TDD  Support is growing for the 3.5GHz band, driven by the entry into the market of operators such as UK Broadband and by the 3.5GHz Interest Group members, including operators in Australia, the Middle East, Canada, Latin America and the rest of Europe www.informatandm.com © Informa UK Limited 2013. All rights reserved

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450MHz (Band 31) • Provides for 2 x 5 MHz channels of FDD bandwidth.

• Spectrum auctioned by Anatel in 2012 with the objective of increasing mobile voice and data services in rural areas of Brazil. • Government estimates that about 24 million people in rural areas will be served.

• Winners must also provide broadband Internet access free of charge to all rural public schools. Other potential uses are for manufacturing, shipping, fleet monitoring.

Source: Informa Telecoms & Media

• The technical characteristics of 450MHz allow large geographic areas to be covered at lower costs. Also supports higher data rates (up to 25Mbps on the downlink and 12.5Mbps on the uplink), lower latency and better performance. • Other players in Latin America may also benefit, especially those who operate a 450MHz CDMA network but do not have access to LTE spectrum. Subject to regulation, they may have the opportunity to migrate to 4G without needing to wait for the spectrum auction. www.informatandm.com © Informa UK Limited 2013. All rights reserved

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Carrier aggregation


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Carrier aggregation


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Approved LTE Advanced inter-band Carrier Aggregation, 2Q13 Description

CA type

Release Sponsor

Band 1 and Band 8

Inter-band

Rel-12 Softbank

Band 2 and Band 13

Inter-band

Rel-12 Verizon

Band 3 and Band 19

Inter-band

Rel-12 NTT DoCoMo

Band 3 and Band 26

Inter-band

Rel-12 KT

Band 19 and Band 21

Inter-band

Rel-12 NTT DoCoMo

Band 23 and Band 29

Inter-band

Rel-12 Dish Network

Band 2 and Band 17

Inter-band

Rel-11 AT&T

Band 3 and Band 8

Inter-band

Rel-11 KT

Band 4 and Band 5

Inter-band

Rel-11 AT&T

Band 4 and Band 7

Inter-band

Rel-11 Rogers

Band 4 and Band 12

Inter-band

Rel-11 Leap Wireless/Cox Comms

Band 4 and Band 13

Inter-band

Rel-11 Ericsson

Band 4 and Band 17

Inter-band

Rel-11 AT&T

Band 5 and Band 12

Inter-band

Rel-11 US Cellular

Band 5 and Band 17

Inter-band

Rel-11 AT&T

Band 8 and Band 20

Inter-band

Rel-11 Vodafone

Band 11 and Band 18

Inter-band

Rel-11 KDDI

Sources: 3GPP, Informa Telecoms & Media www.informatandm.com © Informa UK Limited 2013. All rights reserved

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Conclusions and recommendations


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Conclusions • The range and number of spectrum bands designated for use with LTE networks continues to grow, with new frequencies being opened up from the lower sub-1GHz bands to those above 3GHz. • Band 3’s popularity continues to grow, driven by its high availability, relatively generous bandwidth, positive performance characteristics and strong support from device suppliers. According to the latest forecasts, Band 3 will represent the second-largest addressable market for LTE globally by 2018, outstripped only by Band 7. • The TDD bands have not yet made a major impression on the global spectrum map, but the launch of LTE services based on TD-LTE in major markets, such as China and India, will begin to have an impact in the coming year. • The APT 700MHz band (Band 28) is rapidly becoming the preferred choice for governments, regulators and industry groups in Central and South America, Africa, India and Southeast Asia, as well as in Japan, Australia and New Zealand. Band 28 is expected to overtake the US 700MHz bands (Bands 12, 13, 14 and 17) in terms of addressablemarket size by 2018. www.informatandm.com © Informa UK Limited 2013. All rights reserved

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Recommendations (1) • Band proliferation: The increase in the number of spectrum bands for LTE shows few signs of slowing. Key concerns for operators when making their band selections must be the availability of devices, and support for upcoming technical advances such as carrier aggregation. • Spectrum re-farming: The growth of Band 3 is evidence that operators are looking at refarming options alongside the acquisition of new spectrum for LTE. Other candidate bands for re-farming should also be considered:  These include Band 1, already re-farmed by NTT DoCoMo for the launch of its Xi LTE service, and being adopted by operators in China, the Philippines, Thailand, and most likely in Europe. Regulators in the EU are also being encouraged to open up spectrum in existing GSM bands, such as 900MHz, for LTE. • Regionalized band plans: Despite some movement toward a more coordinated approach, spectrum-band plans are still highly regionalized. Even minor differences in frequency ranges between similar plans can be significant for aspects such as device support, making the harmonization between apparently closely-related bands as challenging as for entirely different ones. www.informatandm.com © Informa UK Limited 2013. All rights reserved

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Recommendations (2) • LTE roaming: While the work of standards bodies, regulators, governments and industry groups is directed toward creating the maximum opportunity for new spectrum bands to be exploited, the industry is also urgently seeking to provide global roaming for LTE.  Given that chipset suppliers and device manufacturers are likely to develop the technology to support multiple LTE roaming bands, the industry has to work towards identifying a subset of ‘global’ bands to support roaming services in the future.


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Find out more LTE Spectrum Strategies and Forecasts to 2018 research www.informatandm.com/ltespectrum Intelligence Centre www.informatandm.com View previous Informa Telecoms & Media webinars here http://www.informatandm.com/analyst-webinars/ View additional Informa Telecoms & Media white papers here http://www.informatandm.com/white-papers/ Website E-mail Tel. Twitter LinkedIn

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Thank you! Julian Bright Senior Analyst, Networks Informa Telecoms & Media [email protected] Twitter: @julianbright © Informa UK Limited 2013. All rights reserved The contents of this publication are protected by international copyright laws, database rights and other intellectual property rights. The owner of these rights is Informa UK Limited, our affiliates or other third party licensors. All product and company names and logos contained within or appearing on this publication are the trade marks, service marks or trading names of their respective owners, including Informa UK Limited. This publication may not be: (a) copied or reproduced; or (b) lent, resold, hired out or otherwise circulated in any way or form without the prior permission of Informa UK Limited. Whilst reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the information and content of this publication was correct as at the date of first publication, neither Informa UK Limited nor any person engaged or employed by Informa UK Limited accepts any liability for any errors, omissions or other inaccuracies. Readers should independently verify any facts and figures as no liability can be accepted in this regard - readers assume full responsibility and risk accordingly for their use of such information and content. Any views and/or opinions expressed in this publication by individual authors or contributors are their personal views and/or opinions and do not necessarily reflect the views and/or opinions of Informa UK Limited.

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