Global Trade in Ornamental Fish – 1998 to 2007 Presented at the International Aqua Show 12th Feb.2010 Cochin, Kerala, India By: Kapila Tissera Consultant Kerala Aqua Ventures International Ltd Keeping colourful tropical fish in aquarium tanks and garden ponds as a hobby has a long history dating back to many centuries. The first records of ornamental fish kept as pets date back to the Ming Dynasty in China. The first such colourful fish to enter this arena are multi-coloured strains of the common Carp (Cyprinus carpio) and Gold fish (Carassius auratus). After dogs and cats, tropical fish have become the most widely kept pets in households. However, it is after the Second World War, with the introduction of Civil Aviation, that this hobby started growing in to a global industry. Development of aquaculture technology, water management systems, better understanding of nutrition and aquatic disease management and many other branches of animal husbandry sciences have helped this industry to reach every part of the world and grow in to an attractive global industry.
100%
90% 80%
Fresh Water 52%
70% 60% 50% 40%
Sea Water 30% 20% 10% 0% 1998
2000
Source: FAO FishStat June 2009
2002
2004
2006
In the late 90s, the trade in fresh water tropical fish constituted around 85% of the global ornamental fish trade and the value of marine ornamental fish constituted only around 15%. Advent of artificial sea salts, sophisticated aquarium water management systems, hatchery production of some important marine ornamental fish and the artificial culture of corals have helped the marine ornamental fish and invertebrate trade to grow during the last decade. In the year 2007 the marine component of the trade has grown to 48% and the fresh water component is 52%. The value of the brackish water fish traded annually is negligible. (FAO Fishery Statistics 2009 June).
Mil US$
The global trade figures for the period between 1998 and 2007 show that the tropical pet fish industry shows only a 2% Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) during that period. This can be 1998attributed to the dip in imports during years 1999 CAGR 2% 2007 to 2002. However, during the last five years under consideration, the CAGR has picked up and during the last 3 years under consideration the CAGR has doubled from that of the decade average to 4%. This shows a healthy pick up of the industry 2005 4% CAGR 2007 towards the end of the period under consideration (1998-2007). The growth trend of value of global imports can be presented by the equation, Y=8.8485X+226.13 (where Y is the import value in Source: FAO FishStat June 2009 US$ Mil. and X is the year taking 1998 as 1). In summary, we are looking at a decade where the industry shows a slow but steady growth. In the year 2007, the global imports in ‘Marine and Freshwater Fish & Invertebrates’ was valued at US$ 327 Million. 350 340 330
327
320 310
310
303
300
291
290 280
279
270 260
263
250
245
247
248
240
235
230 220
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Major European Importers
Regional Imports ~ 2007 Americas
18%
3%
Africa, Oceania
Others 28%
UK 20% Germany 16%
Belgium 7%
Italy 8% Asia
26%
Europe
France 12%
N’lnds 9%
53% Source: FAO FishStat June 2009
Source: FAO FishStat June 2009
In the year 2007 the European region stood as the largest importing region, attracting 53% of the global trade in tropical pet fish. Asian region had imported 28% of the global values and the American region only 18%. Countries of Oceania and Africa share only 3% of the global share in imports of tropical pet fish. Further more, the imports to the European region show an increase; from US$ 120 Mi in 1998 to US$ 175 Mil in 2007. In 2007 the United Kingdom has imported 20% of the fish coming in to the European region, with Germany in the second place at 16%. Taking a closer look at the European region it can be seen that both these countries have shown a growing trend in the imports along with the Netherlands, Italy and Belgium. France only shows a steady import value through out the period without a notable increase in its export values.
The American Region Canada 15%
Mexico 9%
Other 2%
Japan 22% Others 35%
Singapore 20% Israel 3%
USA 74% Source: FAO FishStat June 2009
Korea 8%
Malaysia 3%
China 9%
Source: FAO FishStat June 2009
While the American region has imported only 18% in the same year, 74% of that has been to the USA. Canada and Mexico have imported a notable share at 15% and 9% respectively. Looking further in to the FAO fishery Statistics, it can be seen that the ornamental fish imports to the American region have shown a declining trend in the decade under consideration, while Canada and Mexico are becoming capable of attracting the interest of the exporting countries. The Asian region has imported 26% of the global exports. Japan and Singapore stand as the largest importers from this region and China and South Korea are coming up as emerging markets. The Central East Asian Countries deserve a special look in this analysis as the UAE and the Islamic Republic of Iran are emerging as new attractive markets. Other countries in this region too are showing a growth in tropical fish imports at various levels.
European export data analysis from 1998 to 2007 poses some problems due to questionable data appearing in the exports of tropical fish by Spain. The exports of marine tropical fish and invertebrates show a questionable increase since 2003, the export value jumping 10 times higher from 0.9 Mil to 9 Mil US$ and continuing to reach almost 29 mil US$ in 2007. My queries from the Ornamental Fish International and other sources have not been able to authenticate this frog leap of export value from Spain. Taking a natural growth of the marine pet fish exports from Spain, we could arrive only at a figure of 3 Mil US$ for 2007 by Spain with a correlation coefficient (R2) of 0.73 which is an acceptable figure. Therefore, in order to maintain the accuracy of this analysis, ornamental fish export data from Spain have been omitted.
Exports by Region - 2007 Americas 10%
Other 5% Europe 29%
Asia 56%
The Asian region stands up as the largest exporter of tropical ornamental fish to the global industry. The region exported 56% of the total global value in 2007. Europe covers around 29% of the global export values for the same period. Although the American Region exports about 10% of the global value, scrutinizing the price and stock lists of the major exporters from that region mostly show wild caught fish collected in the South American Region.
From the 29% of the Fish exported from the European Region, 39% is exported by the Czech Republic in Source: FAO FishStat June 2009 2007. The Netherlands and France have exported 14% each suggesting the existence of an import and re-export trade in these countries. Exports from the Czech Republic are increasing at a notable rate. The Netherlands also can be seen as a growing exporter from the region. However, decreasing imports and the increase of the export values may suggest a shrinking market in France. The United States is the largest exporter from the American region. It catered for around 36% of the Regions exports to the global trade in Tropical Pet Fish in 2007. Colombia appears to be a strong exporter of the commodity catering to around 28% of the exports from this region with Brazil and Peru contributing 17% and 12% to the region’s exports respectively.
Major European Exporters 2007 With an apology to Spain Italy 4%
Exports from the American Region Others 7%
Other 10%
Sweden 6% United Kingdom 6%
Peru 12%
Czech Republic 39%
USA 36%
Brazil 17%
Germany 7%
France 14%
Source: FAO FishStat June 2009
Colombia 28%
Netherlands 14%
Source: FAO FishStat June 2009
A close look at the trade patterns in the US suggests an interesting situation. It can be seen clearly that the exports from US are strongly correlated with its imports. There is a dip in the domestic consumption when the imports rise and it seems to rise when export values are low. This can suggest a shortage of aquatic pets in the US market. With the demand for imported tropical ornamental fish rising in America’s immediate neighbours, namely Canada and Mexico, a strong import to re-export trade may be developing in the US. Personal communication with retailers have shown that the small retailer has lost up to about 40% of the business in
2009, with consumers not stepping in to the shops, but trade of tropical fish at large pet shop chains have not been notably affected during the economic slowdown in the US.
US$ Mil
USA Situation - 2007 65
55
45 Imports Exports
35
Consumption
25
15
5 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Source: FAO FishStat June 2009
The Czech Republic is Europe’s largest exporter catering to 39% of the region’s export trade in ornamental fish. The Republic also shows a healthy 8% CAGR for the period between 1998 and 2007, becoming the fastest growing exporter of tropical fish in the European region. The Netherlands and France occupy the second place with 14% each of the regional trade. The Netherlands, although with a smaller base than the Czech Republic, also shows a notable CAGR of 7% for the period under consideration. Germany too is a notable exporter providing 7% of exports from the European Region. Europe as a total caters to 29% of the global value of the export trade in ornamental fish.
Asia stands as the largest supplying region of this commodity. The Asian Region catered to 56% of the global demand in tropical pet fish in 2007. It also shows an annual compounded growth rate of 3% for the period, which is a value of around US$23 Mil. in growth from 1998 to 2007. Among the Asian Exporters Singapore stands as the largest exporter of this commodity catering to 38% of exports from the region. Malaysia, Japan and Thailand occupy the next places in that order, with 14%, 12% and 8% of the exports from the region. It should also be noted that the exports from these countries, including Israel have shown a remarkable growth during this period. Moving in to a global lookout, it can be seen that 71% of the global imports of ornamental fish is held by the top 10 importing countries.
A closer Look at the Top 10 Exporters
The Top 10 Global Exporters Colombia 4%
Singapore - Position 1
France 4%
US$ Mil
Netherlands 4% United States of America 6% Israel 7%
Singapore 33%
70
60
50
Thailand 7%
40 Export Values Import Values
30
Japan 10%
Malaysia 13% Czech Republic 12%
20
10
0
Source: FAO FishStat June 2009
1998 1999 2000 2001 Source: FAO FishStat June 2009
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Singapore is the world’s Number 1 exporter of Fish and Invertebrates for the ornamental fish industry, catering to 33% of the world demand in 2007. Imports of this commodity in to Singapore have been increasing since 2001 and show a rapid increase starting from 2004. This trend has continued up to 2007 up to which data is available. The difference between the import and export value shows that the country is a strong producer of ornamental fish. However, it should be noted that the estimated growth of fish Singapore’s pet fish production shows a low CAGR of 2% (1998-2007). As a result, increase in Singapore’s exports starting from the year 2003 shows a considerable dependence on imports. In 2007 the domestic production was estimated to be around US$ 42 mil. (As no figures are available on the magnitude of the domestic market in Singapore, the actual figure may be higher). Thus, Singapore can be regarded as a Gate Way to the world market in ornamental fish rather than a competitor for producing and exporting countries.
A closer Look at the Top 10 Exporters Malaysia - Position 2 US$ Mil
Next to Singapore, Malaysia is the second largest exporter to the global trade. In 2007, 13% of the global exports in this commodity were done by Malaysia. During the period under consideration the exports from Malaysia show a compounded annual growth of 14%. Although imports are showing a meagre CAGR of 1%, the estimated domestic production has shown an impressive CAGR of 20%! Sans the domestic consumption, Malaysia’s domestic production may be estimated at around US$ 20 Mil. in 2007. Thus Malaysia is a true producer-exporter and can be regarded as a strong competitor for other producing and exporting countries
30
25
20
15 Export Values Import Values 10
5
0 1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: FAO FishStat June 2009
The Czech Republic shows an interesting situation. It catered to 12% of the word demand in 2007. During Czech Republic - Position 3 the period under consideration (1998-2007) its exports have shown an annual compounded growth rate of 8%. The domestic production shows a CAGR of 7%, with the value of the estimated production at US$ 20 Mil. (without considering the domestic consumption). Although from a much smaller base, in comparison to Malaysia, Czech Republic’s imports show an impressive CAGR of 24% during the period under consideration and in 2007 stood at a value of US$ 2.8 Mil. Although currently the Czech Republic poses some competition Source: FAO FishStat June 2009 to the exporting countries, a rising tendency for it to depend more on imports for its export trade can be felt. In the not so far future we may see the Czech Republic becoming a GATEWAY to Europe.
A closer Look at the Top 10 Exporters US$ Mil
25
20
Axis Title
15
Export Values Import Values
10
5
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Axis Title
Japan shows an increase in its exports and a decrease in imports of this commodity. The increase in exports may cause a shrinking domestic consumption or vice versa. Without data on the domestic production, no predictions may be done as to the behaviour of the Japanese domestic market. However, a notable decrease in its imports is evident during the period under consideration. Thailand caters to 7% of the world market and shows an impressive growth in its domestic production. The imports to Thailand are negligible and show a decrease during the period between 1998 and 2007. Even without considering the domestic consumption in Thailand, its domestic production has sown an impressive CAGR of 26% during the period under consideration (1198-2007). Thus Thailand, like Malaysia will be a strong competitor for the producing and exporting countries.
A closer Look at the Top 10 Exporters
A closer Look at the Top 10 Exporters Thailand - Position 5
45
US$ Mil
US$ Mil
Japan - Position 4
40
16
14
35
12
30
Axis Title
10 25 Export Values
20
8
Export Values
Import Values
Import Values 6
15
10
4
5
2
0 1998
1999
2000
2001
Source: FAO FishStat June 2009
2002
2003
Axis Title
2004
2005
2006
2007
0 1998
1999
2000
2001
Source: FAO FishStat June 2009
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Domestic production (without considering domestic consumption) in Israel has shown an impressive CAGR of 7% during the period under consideration. Imports are below 5% of the export values. Therefore, Israel can be regarded as a producer-exporter with an annual compounded growth rate of the value of its exports reaching 7% during the period under consideration (1998-2007). It is thus a strong competitor in the global ornamental fish supplies.
A closer Look at the Top 10 Exporters
A closer Look at the Top 10 Exporters USA - Position 7 US$ Mil
US$ Mil
Israel - Position 6 16
14
80
70
12
60
10
50
8
Export Values
40
Export Values
Import Values 6
Import Values 30
4
20
2
10
0 1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
0
2007
1998
Source: FAO FishStat June 2009
1999
2000
2001
A closer Look at the Top 10 Exporters
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
A closer Look at the Top 10 Exporters
Netherlands - Position 8
Colombia - Position 9
18
US$ Mil
US$ Mil
2002
Source: FAO FishStat June 2009
16
10
9
8
14
7
12 6
10 5
Export Values 8
Export Values
Import Values
Import Values
4
6
3
4
2
2
1
0
0
1998
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: FAO FishStat June 2009
Source: FAO FishStat June 2009
A closer Look at the Top 10 Exporters Mil US$
US$ Mil
France - Position 10 25
20
2.5
2
15
United Arab Emirates
1.5
Iran (Islamic Rep. of) Kuwait Cyprus
Export Values Import Values
10
Jordan
1
Qatar
Saudi Arabia 0.5 5
0
1998
0 1998
1999
2000
2001
Source: FAO FishStat June 2009
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
1999
2000
2001
2007
Source: FAO FishStat June 2009
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Based on the above analysis, it can be deduced that among the top ten exporting countries of ornamental fish, Malaysia, Thailand and Israel are true producer exporters and will not depend on imports to augment their exports. These countries have a strong domestic export oriented production base. Singapore, while having a strong production base, shows a tendency to increasingly depend on imports to augment their exports. This tendency is also seen in the industry of the Czech Republic. The industry in Japan shows an increasing dependency on imports for its exports of ornamental fish. The exports from the USA too show a strong dependency on its imports. While also showing a strong domestic market, the Netherlands, Germany and Sweden show a tendency of developing an inter-European trade with imports and re-exports. As France may not be producing more than 8% of the domestic demand, a slight decrease in the French domestic market can be felt. The Middle Eastern Asian Region shows an interesting rate of growth in their imports of ornamental fish although the base is still small. The UAE and Iran are notable countries for imports of ornamental fish in this region. The increase in the imports of South Korea and the Peoples Republic of China also are notable. Kapila Tissera
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