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Top 10 Strategic Strate gic Technology Technology Trends for 2015 David Cearley
Digital Business Sets the Stage Improve process efficiency/effectiveness with mobility
Business Process
New models and processes
Extend and evolve processes
Business Moment Evolve processes into new business models
Business Model
Extend and evolve models
Implement new business models relying on mobility
Technolo echnology gy Adoption and Market Disruption Emerging
h t w o r G
Disruption Uncertain
Growth
Disruption Clarified and Starting
Mainstream
Disruption Happening or Happened
Strategic Technology Trends Time
Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2015 Merging the Real World and the Virtual World
Intelligence Everywhere
The New IT Reality Emerges
1
Computing Everywhere
2
The Internet of Things
3
3D Printing
4
Advanced, Pervasive and Invisible Analytics
5
Context-Rich Systems
6
Smart Machines
7
Cloud/Client Computing
8
Software-Defined Applications and Infrastructure
9
Web-Scale IT
10
Risk-Based Security and Self-protection
Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2015 Merging the Real World and the Virtual World
Intelligence Everywhere
The New IT Reality Emerges
1
Computing Everywhere
2
The Internet of Things
3
3D Printing
4
Advanced, Pervasive and Invisible Analytics
5
Context-Rich Systems
6
Smart Machines
7
Cloud/Client Computing
8
Software-Defined Applications and Infrastructure
9
Web-Scale IT
10
Risk-Based Security and Self-protection
Computing Everywhere — Look Beyond Mobile Form Factors • Many form factors, screen sizes,
interaction styles, platforms, architectures • Technology advances accelerate:
Sensors, displays, wireless and more
• Embrace heterogeneity and loss of
complete control • Use containment and isolation as a
foundational security strategy
Inside everything
Pocketable Convertible Portable screen Wearable
All around
Portable
Touch, voice, etc. Keyboard, mouse Gesture
Desk
Shared areas
The User Experience in a Hyper Connected World Richer I/O Models
Emotionally Impactful
ConsumerDriven
Multimodal
Think "Outside in" and Focus on Solution Architecture, Design Thinking and Development
1
Exploit the natural affinity between agile development methodologies and UX — Pilot and iterate
2
Create UX pattern libraries that guide application development teams — Personas and use cases
3
Tool software, so usage data can be extracted and analyzed — Continuous feedback
The Internet of Things Links to Everything Manage Internet of People 1.11B People on Facebook, March 2013
Monetize
Internet of Things 25B Things by 2020
Operate Internet of Information 30T Web Pages in Google Index, 2013
Internet of Places
Extend
3B Foursquare Check-Ins, January 2013
Identify New Patterns and Define New Technical Architectures for the Internet of Things Thing
Gateway
Cloud/"Internet"
Enterprise/ On-Premises
10101001010100 11010101010010 10110101011
User Interface
Application Logic and Rules
Data
Analytics
Experiment! A $75 Proof of Concept … Can Save $75,000 "Customer down, magnet down, $75,000 magnet recovery problem to recool the magnet. These have really worked well monitoring our magnets at our office in Ohio." … and embrace the "maker culture."
… "3d printing is not new but is newly strategic" Billions of Dollars 7
6
81.9%
5
CAGR
4 3 2 1 0 2012
2013
2014 Enterprise
2015 Consumer
2016
2017
Consumer Shipments Point to More Pervasive Use Shipments
1,200,000 1,000,000
95.4%
800,000
CAGR
600,000 400,000 200,000 0 2012
2013
2014 Enterprise
2015 Consumer
2016
2017
Look for Innovation Opportunities From the Simple & Mundane to the Complex and Critical Airbus A320 Redesigned Nacelle Hinge Bracket
M1 Abrams Tank Engine Material Added to Worn Components Courtesy of EOS
Injection Molds Cut Tooling Costs by Up to 97%
Not Impossible Labs "Project Daniel" Prosthetic Limbs
Courtesy of Not Impossible Labs
Is 3D Print for You? Five Key Questions Responsive
Will we be able to focus more on our customers' needs and less on our manufacturing processes?
Agile
Will we make our product development and production processes more nimble?
Cost
How much can we reduce product development, operating and support costs?
Knowledge
Do we need to develop our staff's additive manufacturing skills?
Innovation
Will we be able to create items that were difficult or impossible to produce before?
Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2015 Merging the Real World and the Virtual World
Intelligence Everywhere
The New IT Reality Emerges
1
Computing Everywhere
2
The Internet of Things
3
3D Printing
4
Advanced, Pervasive and Invisible Analytics
5
Context-Rich Systems
6
Smart Machines
7
Cloud/Client Computing
8
Software-Defined Applications and Infrastructure
9
Web-Scale IT
10
Risk-Based Security and Self-protection
Big Data Security Analytics at the Heart of Next-Generation Security Platforms Context-Aware Intelligence
Model, Simulate, Act, Protect
Continuous Monitoring and Analytics
Community Patterns, Meaningful Anomalies Dependencies, Relationships
Context Knowledge Analyze
Information Collect, Correlate Big Data Data Data Data Data
Data Lake …
Unmanaged Original Raw Natural Security Not Portable
… or Reservoir?
Managed Transformed Filtered Secured (Somewhat) Portable
Context-Rich Systems Understand Who, What, When, Where, How and Why
User-Facing Context
Identity and Pref.
Environment
Calendar
Community
Connectivity
Location
Process Models
Content Sources
History
Patterns Etc.
System-Facing Context
Mobile Context — Fluid Workspace Driven by Convenience and Context Work anywhere at any time
Employees will own many computing devices
Employee autonomy in processes, apps, devices
Process and working practice innovation
BYOD and BYOA
Continued loss of IT control Personal Cloud Defines Workspace
Real-Time, Context-Aware, Risk-Aware and Active: Adaptive Access Control Contextual information.
Get more information!
Risk engine.
Allow access. Step-up authentication. Trust elevation.
Transaction verification.
STOP
Deny access. Allow access with fine-grained audit. Other obligation.
Emerging Trend: The Contextual User Experience Contextual Information: •
•
Personal Assistants as Intermediaries
Location Information Available Endpoints
•
Human Request for Action
•
Relevant Services and Content
User Experience Platform: •
•
Intermediary Between Users and Content/Capabilities Acts for or Interacts With the User to Accomplish Goals: - The Invisible User Interface
•
Dynamically Assembles UI Screens/Forms
Image © Apple
Siri
Image © Microsoft
Cortana
Image © Google
Google Now
… Just the Beginning!
Smart Machine Categories Based on What They Do Movers
Autonomous Vehicles
Sages
Information-Based Helpers
Doers
Machine-Focused Helpers
Rio Tinto — Reinventing Mining … and More
Cornell's Observant, Predictive Servant
Virtual Private Assistants — You Will Not Have Just One
Image © Microsoft Image © Google
Memorial Sloan Kettering and IBM Watson
Maturity, Adoption and Diffusion 90% Adoption for Addressable Market
Early Emerging Use Cases
Adoption Accelerates
Smart Advisor
2014
2017
Virtual Personal Assistant1
2013
2017
Segments Merge (and Fragment) 2020 to 2022
Autonomous Personal Transport
2020 (±2)
2030 (±5)
2044 (±10)
Semiautonomous Robotic Assistants
2025 (2020 to 2030)
2032 (2025 to 2040)
?
Segment
Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2015 Merging the Real World and the Virtual World
Intelligence Everywhere
The New IT Reality Emerges
1
Computing Everywhere
2
The Internet of Things
3
3D Printing
4
Advanced, Pervasive and Invisible Analytics
5
Context-Rich Systems
6
Smart Machines
7
Cloud/Client Computing
8
Software-Defined Applications and Infrastructure
9
Web-Scale IT
10
Risk-Based Security and Self-protection
Unify Cloud and Mobile Strategies: Cloud/Client Computing •
•
Data
•
Business logic UX logic
•
Data Business logic UX logic
•
•
•
The application is in the cloud. Cloud is the coordination point and system of record. Clients can be anything with varying levels of data and logic. Applications can span multiple clients. Multichannel, Multi-scn., ensemble interactions. The experience flows to the user in context. Mobile is not about devices … it is about people.
Shift From Cloud Application Migration, to Cloud "Native" Application Development Conventional Pattern
Cloud "Native" Pattern
Central SQL Database
Distributed Key/Value NoSQL
Sticky In-Memory Session
Shared Memcached/Redis Session
Chatty Protocols
Latency Tolerant Protocols
Tangled Service Interfaces
Layered Service Interfaces
Polled Information
Event-Driven
Fat Complex Objects
Lightweight Serializable Objects
Components as Jar Files
Components as Services
Java, .NET
JavaScript, Python, Ruby, Node.js
Software-Defined Applications and Infrastructure: The Future Is Software-Defined Networking Storage
Cloud Services Everything Is Programmable
Security The API Economy Data Centers OpenStack Open Compute
Real-Time Infrastructure Fabric-Based Computing Service-Oriented Architecture Model-Driven Architecture
Software-Defined Architecture for Application Services
Outer View
Outer View
Outer APIs
Resource Virtualization
Managed Resources
Inner View
Inner View
Inner APIs
Web-Scale IT: The Foundation for the Digital Future Open
Web-scale IT is a pattern of global class computing that delivers the capabilities of large cloud services providers to the enterprise
Industrially Designed Data Centers RiskEmbracing Culture
Collaborative Aligned Organization
Web-Oriented Architecture
Web-Scale IT
VelocityFocused Processes
Infrastructure as Code
Source
Create Your Blueprint and Road Map for Web-Scale IT
1 DevOps API-Based Management Velocity-Focused Processes Collaboratively-Aligned Organization Risk-Embracing Culture
2 Web-Oriented Architecture
3 Industrially Designed Infrastructure
All Roads to the Digital Future Lead Through Security
Security Myth: Perimeter Defense Will Protect My Applications Mobile
Insider Attacks
Internet of Things
Enable Applications to Protect Themselves Application Runtime Dynamic Interaction
Output:
Application Source Code
High-Assurance Security Vulnerabilities Security-Aware Application Design
Runtime Application Self-Protection
Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2015 Merging the Real World and the Virtual World Intelligence Everywhere
Proactively analyze disruptive technology trends and
create a vision of the future technology landscape Link trend analysis to the impact on people
(employees and customers), the business and IT Establish strategic decision models to take action on
disruptive impacts The New IT Reality Emerges
Focus on the EA role as a visionary, an analyst and
a catalyst for disruptive trend analysis across IT and the business
Recommended Gartner Research
Top 10 Mobile Technologies and Capabilities for 2015 and 2016 Nick Jones (G00260239)
Hype Cycle for the Internet of Things, 2014 Hung LeHong and Alfonso Velosa (G00264127)
Hype Cycle for 3D Printing, 2014 Pete Basiliere and Michael Shanler (G00263487)
Hype Cycle for Advanced Analytics and Data Science, 2014 Alexander Linden (G00262076) Context-Aware Security and Intelligence-Sharing Concepts Merge to Create Intelligence-Aware Security Controls Lawrence Pingree and others (G00261239)
Recommended Gartner Research
Hype Cycle for Smart Machines, 2014 Kenneth F. Brant and Tom Austin (G00263827)
Software-Defined Architecture for Applications in Digital Business Yefim V. Natis and Ross Altman (G00264171)
Hype Cycle for Cloud Computing, 2014 David Mitchell Smith (G00263850)
Web-Scale IT Influences the Market and Enterprises for Cloud Computing Cameron Haight (G00260838)
Runtime Application Self-Protection: A Must-Have, Emerging Security Technology Joseph Feiman (G00229122)
