Football Strategies for Betfair The football strategies shown here can be used to trade different markets on Betfair or a similar betting exchange. Football odds are very predictable in relation to goals and time. All these football strategies rely on goals being scored, and time passing in the game. The football strategies shown here have been developed using Betfair football markets. You could use Betfair to just bet or lay in the football markets. These trading methods employ different staking techniques and insurance bets to give you trading options, depending on your reading of what is happening in the game. All betting strategies carry risk. These trading strategies have been developed to reduce risk. All of these trading strategies have been gathered from other sites! Football betting/trading on Betfair The beauty of football betting on Betfair, apart from the obvious advantage of being able to lay bets, is that there are so many more markets to bet on than traditional bookmakers. This is particularly true of live TV matches, where you can find any bet you could possibly want such as asian handicap, corners odds, half-time/full-time, next goalscorer, over/under 2.5 goals, and so on. Also, if you enjoy in-play betting you have more flexibility with Betfair because you can bet right up until the final whistle, unlike the mainstream bookies who usually suspend betting with about ten minutes to go. However, when I do have the occasional bet on football, I don't do it for the enjoyment, I do it solely to make money. In my four years as a full-time Betfair trader, I identified three main ways to profit from football betting and trading: 1. Trading the odds before a match starts When I first started out on Betfair, my only goal was to build my bank up gradually, with the minimum of risk. By studying the odds available on Betfair and comparing them with the bookmakers' odds, I quickly spotted some excellent profit opportunities. A very useful site for odds comparisons is Oddschecker. This site compares odds from many bookmakers, as well as Betfair, and displays them on a single screen. It also tells you where the odds are shortening or lengthening, and with which bookmaker. The key to profiting from this tool is to find matches where the odds on Betfair differ significantly from the average of all the bookmakers' prices. For example if you think that Betfair's odds are slightly too high, you can back that selection and aim to lay it back at a lower price and guarantee yourself a risk-free profit when Betfair's price, as expected, moves in towards the average bookmakers' price. Let's demonstrate by giving a real-life example to demonstrate this point. At the time of writing, I believe I've found a good trading opportunity. The match is the upcoming FA Cup match in two days time (at the time of writing) between Chelsea and Colchester. Looking at the bookies' prices, the odds on Chelsea currently range from 1.07 to 1.1. Betfair's price on Chelsea is currently available to back at 1.14. Now this to me seems very generous. You'd expect slightly better odds, but at the current price of 1.14, it's approximately double the odds of the current lowest bookies' price of 1.07. Another useful tool is to look at the historical betting chart (click on the selection - ie Chelsea in this case), to see what odds have previously been taken. It currently shows that the majority of the money has been staked at 1.13 and 1.14, with some bets being placed down to 1.09. This suggests that the current price is likely to be the highest price that Chelsea will be available at for the near future. I could try and get 1.15 but there's currently about £15,000 queued up. I would have to wait ages for it to be taken, and would probably be lucky to get it matched at this price at all as there is currently just £1500 available to back at 1.14. I decide to go ahead and back at 1.14 for £1000, with the target of laying it back at around 1.12
or possibly 1.11 if I'm lucky. Remember there's still a few days left before the match, so I've decided to leave a lay of £1030 at 1.11 in the system. If it doesn't reach this point, then I'll up it to 1.12, or higher if I really have to. The £1000 bet sounds like a large sum but remember that it is a trade, so whatever happens, I will definitely lay this back before the match starts in a few days. The worst case scenario is that Chelsea's price to lay drifts out to say 1.17 and I have to lay back the £1000 at this price, which simply won't happen in my view based on the bookmakers' odds, but would still only result in a loss of £30 if Chelsea won and £0 if any they drew or lost. The following morning, still a day before the match, I load up my Betfair page and see that thankfully Chelsea's price has come in and is now 1.11 to back and 1.12 to lay. Unfortunately not much as been matched at 1.11 looking at the historical data, and my £1030 is in a queue of around £80,000 waiting to lay with just £3000 waiting to back at 1.12. This to me indicates that we're unlikely to go any lower than 1.11. In this case I decided not to be greedy and risk waiting patiently for my 1.11 to be taken, which may never happen, and increased my offer to 1.12 which was instantly matched. Before I did so I dropped my stake to £1018, for a nice even profit of around £18 whatever the outcome: If Chelsea win, profit = (£1000 * 1.14) - (£1018 * 1.12) = £17.84 If Draw / Colchester win = (-£1000) + (£1018) = £18.00 I usually trade in sizes of at least £3000 or £4000 and make pretty consistent profits, but even so you won't make a fortune from doing trades like this. However it is a nice, low-risk, supplementary income, and you will come across a few decent opportunities every week. For example, the following day I noticed that Real Madrid (v Arsenal) were available to back at 1.86 (had been as high as 1.9), when a lot of bookies were as low as 1.62 and generally as high as just 1.67. You would expect a slightly higher price on Betfair of around 1.75-1.80, but at 1.85 this was an excellent trading opportunity. In this case, I managed to get my entire stake matched at 1.85 and layed it all back later in the day at 1.79 for a very nice profit. The best time to find potential trades is a few days before the match starts when the market is still fairly illiquid, and wait for the prices to correct themselves as the match draws close. You should always look to close out before the day of the match, as this is when the big money enters the market, which often results in price changes of both bookies and Betfair, and messes up the system. This method of trading is based on the assumption that the bookmakers prices will remain relatively stable in the days leading up to the match, which they do in the majority of matches. You could in theory apply these methods to other sports as well (I used a similar method to trade horse racing), but I like the football because there's always a lot of money staked on them, therefore it's always easy to close out a position. 2. Find a specialist market and research it thoroughly A market which I've consistently made money from in the past is the bookings odds markets on live premiership matches. The market is based on 2 points for a yellow card and 5 points for a red card. It offers three possible outcomes: 5 points and under 6-8 points 9 points and above The selection I always looked to lay was the 5 points and under. In other words, I'm always looking for matches where there will be at least three bookings in order to win the bet. As this market is generally only available for live matches you have to be very selective, and for that reason I usually only found one or two solid opportunities per week. However, I'm constantly
amazed at how low the prices are for this selection, as I think the price available is often a lot more generous than it's true probability. The average price you can lay this selection at varies, but my selections are usually around 3.5-4.5. On that basis if you use the same stake every bet (I generally staked £150 for each match), then on average you need to have a 75% success rate to make this system profitable. This may sound high, but if you do your homework then it's remarkably easy to achieve this, and again make a nice little income. My record was seventeen successive winning lays stretching over about three months. Look at any premiership match nowadays, and you'll see that very few matches have less than three bookings. This is because referees are now extremely fussy and just the smallest of mistimed tackles often results in a booking. Also, there is a lot of diving and simulation in our game at the moment, which is now finally being clamped down on with an instant booking in most cases. The prices offered on Betfair, in my opinion, don't reflect this and are still very generous. Those matches that do finish with less than three bookings are often very easy to predict either because they have a soft referee in charge, or they're between two mid-table sides with nothing much to play for, or two well-disciplined sides with excellent disciplinary records, such as Chelsea or Liverpool (two teams I like to avoid). Two essential tools for identifying suitable matches are the fair play league table and the referee league table. These are good starting points for identifying ill-disciplined teams and card-happy refs, but I like to analyse the two team selections as well. Most of my bets are therefore placed close to the kick-off when the two line-ups are announced. Ideally I want to find matches involving tough combative central midfielders who like to get stuck in, tricky wingers who can draw fouls, and no-nonsense central defenders. Two of my favourite teams who meet this criteria are Blackburn and Everton. Both have no-nonsense managers in Mark Hughes and David Moyes at the time of writing, and boast several hard-working, determined, tough-tackling players in their team. There are a few other teams, such as Arsenal and Bolton, who rarely let me down either, but it's important to take each match on it's merit. For example, Blackburn v Everton may look like a banker bet, but if, let's say, it's near the end of the season and both teams are comfortably in mid-table with nothing to play for, then neither side will be as committed. Therefore the odds of getting at least three bookings are seriously reduced. In my experience relegation scraps often produce a lot of bookings, because both teams are so desperate for a positive result and fully commit to tackles, often mistiming them. In my experience the matches to avoid are those matches hyped up by the media that have a history of bad blood and aggression from previous encounters. This attracts a lot of casual punters who don't normally bet on this market, who subsequently over-inflate the price to something silly like 7 or 8 or even higher. To conclude, the ideal match to lay under 5 points would obviously be one refereed by one of the strictest refs and between two teams with a poor disciplinary record. It is important, however, to also look at the two line-ups and make sure that all the notoriously tough players are playing, and both teams should have something to play for, so they're fully committed. 3. Lower league matches If you support a lower league team, or simply follow lower league football, you can potentially earn nice profits from Betfair by simply using your superior knowledge to generate profits. Most odds compilers spend most of their time analysing and pricing up premiership matches, meaning less time is spent on lower league matches. Because Betfair's prices are closely linked to bookmakers' prices, it's therefore possible to get very good value, as well as being given the
option to lay your side if they're not very good, like my team at the moment, Bristol City. I have to admit I've never used this tactic myself as I can't bring myself to bet against my own team. However I know a good friend of mine, who also supports Bristol City, has made a lot of money this season laying us to lose, particularly in the first half of the season. This is because right at the start of the season we were second favourites to get promoted, but it was patently obvious to any City fan attending the opening matches that we had a poor manager and a poor team, and we were going to struggle this season. However, because we are a big-name club for the division we are in, and we started this season as strong promotion candidates, most bookies, and subsequently Betfair prices, still reflected this in their odds. Therefore shrewd City fans, like my mate, not only profited from laying us for a lot of matches, but also got very generous prices as well.
Hedge 1 - 1 This Hedging strategy relies on a decrease in the odds of the 1-1 score line in the Correct Score market, after a goal is scored or two goals are scored to get the score to 1-1. Whether you are a seasoned trader or a beginner, this strategy offers quite a safe way of trading. Providing you stake correctly, you could make good percentage profits on your initial stake if you are able to hedge using this strategy. The big advantage of this strategy is that it is a bet first hedge, rather than a lay first hedge. Whenever you use a lay first hedge (odds increasing), your profit will always be less than your original lay stake, but with a bet first hedge, (odds decreasing), your profit can be much bigger than your original bet stake. This means that the potential profits from this hedge of the Correct Score Market can be very good. If events go against you, a dutching strategy is provided to enable you to continue trading in the match. The big odds available for this exit strategy can make this Hedging of the 1-1 score line strategy quite a safe way of trading football matches. Basic Strategy Before the kick-off, place a 1-1 bet in the Correct Score market. Place an Insurance bet. Whilst there are no goals, do nothing - you will break even. After a goal is scored, lay your original 1-1 bet score line to profit if the lay odds are lower than your original bet odds. Examples of risks A goal may be scored but the 1-1 odds may not shorten sufficiently to enable a successful Hedge. For example, the first goal may be scored very early in the game, or if the game is looking very one-sided, the market may judge that the losing side will not equalize to get the score to 1-1. 2 quick goals scored by the same side can take the score to 2-0 or 0-2 before we have had time to place our 1-1 lay or exit strategy bets whilst the score is 1-0 or 0-1. This type of problem of course applies to other strategies. If you were trading the Draw in the Match Odds market, a quick goal by both sides taking the score to 1-1, would cause trading problems.
1 Loser Strategy In a horse race, bookies may lay only a few runners, and have very small liabilities or no liabilities at all on the outsiders. If an outsider wins the race, they clean up with very little payout, or no payout at all. Another strategy is to lay several runners but make only one targeted runner
a loser. When you use this strategy, you are not laying the whole field, but just a few selections. This is not the same as laying a single selection in the hope that it loses. Using this strategy you can lay several scores in the Correct Score market, or several players in the First Goal Scorer market, and win on every lay except your first lay. If you were laying the Correct Score Market: The only way these lays can lose is if you happen to pick the winning score line with your first lay. Lay as many score lines as you like. The more you lay, the bigger your profit. Additionally, as with all other laying strategies that involve more than one lay, everylay you make reduces your liabilities. In this case your only liability will be on your first lay. As you make more lays, that liability is reduced, and the profit on every other lay increases. If the match ends with a score that you have not layed, you will have no payout whatsoever. You clean up, winning the total £ of all your lays. Remember, your only losing lay will be on the first score line that you lay. You will win on all the others. It is exactly the same if you lay players in the First Goal Scorer Market: You can target any player on the list not to score first. Lay that player, and lay some others players that you think will not score first. These other lays will reduce your liabilities on your targeted player. Your only losing lay will be on the first player that you lay. You will win on all the others. You could also use this spreadsheet to lay a number of horses in a horse race, golfers in a golf tournament, darts players in a darts competition etc. Basic Strategy In the Correct score market, (or any other market of your choice - horses, golf, tennis tournament etc.): Before the kick - off, decide which score line you will target to lose. You will be reducing your liabilities on that selection by laying other scores. Lay that score line, and a few others. Example There are normally 17 score lines including "Any Other Score" that we can lay. We could lay 4 score lines (for example), but only one will make a loss for us. We lay our first score line, which could be any one of the 17. Then we lay a 2nd score line, a 3rd, and a 4th. We could carry on laying more score lines if we wish. These 2nd, 3rd, and 4th lays reduce our liabilities on our first lay, just as any normal series of lays would do, but if we stake correctly: If the winner does not come from the 4 scores that we have layed, we have 4 successful lays, and we clean up, with no payout. If the winner comes from score lines 2, 3, or 4, we make a profit. If our first score line wins, we make a loss, but our liabilities have been reduced by the successful lays on score lines 2, 3 and 4.
2 Losers Strategy This strategy can be used to lay 2 (or more) score lines to lose (or first goal scorers, horses
etc.). Once again, we do not lay the whole field, but a few score lines. The procedure is exactly the same, but this time, 2 score lines are targeted to lose. Liabilities on score lines 1 and 2 will be reduced by the additional lays on score lines 3 upwards. This strategy of targeting 2 score lines, has 2 advantages, but one obvious drawback: A large slice of liability is reduced on score line 1 by the stake on score line 2. A large slice of liability is reduced on score line 2 by the stake on score line 1. This strategy is particularly effective if score lines 1 and 2 are at short odds. The downside is that we have 2 score lines running against us instead of 1.
Dutch All 3 Outcomes Bet home team, away team, and draw for an equal profit. You could dutch all 3 outcomes of a football match by betting on the draw, and then after the kick off, and some time has passed, whilst there is no score, bet both teams as the odds of the 2 teams increase. Alternatively, if one team is winning, you could bet the winning team, and then after some time has passed and the odds of the losing team and the draw have increased, bet the losing team and the draw for a small profit. Both of those methods would take advantage of small increases in the odds, and profits would be very small if you only waited for short periods of time between bets. The strategy described below, takes advantage of much bigger changes in Betfair odds due to a goal or several goals being scored. Bigger changes in the odds offer bigger profits on a successful dutch. Basic Strategy In the Match Odds market, before the kick - off, bet both teams to win an equal amount. After a goal is scored, bet the draw to a guaranteed equal profit on all outcomes. Insurance bets can be placed in the Correct Score market to cover the 0-0 score line or additional draw score lines whist we wait for the odds to lengthen as time passes or more goals are scored. Examples of risks A goal may be scored but the Draw odds may not lengthen sufficiently to enable us to Dutch successfully. For example, the least fancied of the 2 teams may score first. An equalizing goal may be scored before you have time to complete your bet on the Draw.
Hedge The Draw This hedging strategy relies on an increase in the odds of the draw in the Match Odds market, after a goal or several goals are scored. This basic strategy is very well known, and has been marketed quite aggressively via the Internet for some years. Basic Strategy In the Match Odds market, before the kick - off, lay the draw result. After a goal is scored, bet the draw to a guaranteed equal profit, whether the match result is a draw or not a draw. Insurance bets can be placed in the Correct Score market to cover the 0-0 score line or additional draw score lines whist we wait for the odds to lengthen as time passes or more goals are scored.
Examples of risks A goal may be scored but the draw odds may not lengthen sufficiently for a successful hedge. For example, the least fancied of the 2 teams may score first. An equalizing goal may be scored before you have time to complete your hedge.
Lay the Losing Team This strategy relies on the losing team having to pull back at least a 2 goal deficit to win the game. At one goal down, to win the game, the losing team needs to score twice without reply. If we lay the losing team, and then bet the next winning score(s) line up for that team, the losing team will need to score 3 goals without reply, before we have a losing trade. A draw result, or if the losing team doesn't go on to win the game, and we have a successful lay. If the losing team score goals, we have a winning bet. Example At 1-0, we immediately lay the losing team at £20 at odds of 10.0 before the odds lengthen further. The losing team will need to score twice to get the score to 1-2 before we have an unsuccessful lay. We bet the 1-2 score line £13.33 at odds of 15.0. The losing team will need to score 3 goals to get the score to 1-3 or 2-3 before we have an unsuccessful lay. Losing team loses. We have a successful £20 lay, less £13.33 losing bet = +£6.67 profit. Losing team wins 1-2. Win £13.33 x 14 = 186.62 less £20 x 9 = 180 lay for a +£ 6.62 profit. You may decide that the losing team has little chance of winning, so you would like to bias your staking in favour of the winning team. This spreadsheet has an Adjust feature built in that allows you to bias your staking to favour a win or lose result for your losing team.
Lay the Winning Team This strategy involves both dutching and hedging. Insurance against a draw result or a win by the "losing team", is provided by a lay of the winning team. The aim of this strategy, is to have a winning bet on the final score in the Correct Score market. To do that at any time in the game, we could Bet the current score, plus other scores as goals are scored. If we continually bet the current winning score as goals were scored, we would of course soon bet an over-round book and quite often make a loss on our trades. We can cut down on the number of bets required, if we only have to bet on one team. To keep the number of bets on different scores to a minimum, we can wait until late in the game before entering the market. To insure against a draw result or the losing team scoring goals and going on to win the game, all we need is a very small insurance lay on the winning team.
Insurance Lay If we lay the winning team, that lay would be successful if the result was a draw or a win for the team that was losing when we placed our lay. By laying the winning team at very short odds, we can avoid having to bet draw score lines such as 1-1, 2-2, and all possible scores for the team that was losing when we placed our lay. The cost of that lay can be very small. For example a lay of £20 at odds of 1.04, carries a liability of only minus £0.80. If we enter the market at a score of 1-0, and lay the winning team, we would have a successful lay if the losing team equalized or won the game. To hit the winning score for the winning team, we only need to bet the current score of 1-0, plus 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1, 3-2, and Any Unquoted, but to bet all those possible scores probably wouldn't be profitable.
So, the idea is, to enter the market late in the game, especially at a 2 goal difference in the score, such as 2-0 or 0-2, and net the current score and other scores as goals are scored, to make sure we net the winning score result. If the match ends in a draw or a win for the losing team, we have a successful lay on the winning team.
Strategy Late in the game, in the Match Odds market, lay the winning team. In the Correct Score market, bet the current score line, plus the next 2 possible scores.. As the game progresses, bet further score lines as necessary in the Correct Score market.. Make sure you bet the final score result. Example Russia - Sweden. Euro 2008. June 17th 2008. Russia won the game 2-0. Russia were leading 2-0 at 50 minutes. Lay odds at 60 minutes for Russia were 1.09 in the Match Odds market. Lay Russia £30 at 1.09 for a liability of -£2.70. In the Correct Score market, Bet the current score, 2-0, plus the next 2 possible scores 3-0 and 2-1, for a win or lose profit of £7.71. Lay Odds = 1.09 Lay Stake = 30.00 Winning Team= Russia Win = 2.70 Lose = 30.00 Stake To Return 32.70 Overall Betfair BET Correct Scores Win Lose Scores ODDS Adjust Stakes Win Lose 1-0 2-0 3.50 9.34 10.41 -22.29 7.71 7.71 3-0 5.00 6.54 10.41 -22.29 7.71 7.71 2-1 5.10 6.41 10.41 -22.29 7.71 7.71 3-1 3-2 Any Unqoted Total stakes 22.29 Above is a snapshot of the "Trade Winning Team" spreadsheet. Enter the lay odds of the winning team, plus the lay stake. Enter the odds of the current score and the next 2 possible scores for the winning team from the Correct Score market. In this case, with the score of 2-0, the current score is 2-0, and the next 2 possible scores for the winning team are 3-0 and 2-1. Enter the odds, and the spreadsheet shows the stakes required in the Correct Score market, for the current score and the next 2 possible scores. The potential overall win / lose Gross profit is shown for the whole trade across both Match Odds and Correct Score markets, in this case £7.71. Timing of your entry into the market is important. If you enter the market late in the game, there
is less time for goals to be scored, but be aware that the odds of the current score and possibly the next score up for the winning team will probably be shortening in the Correct Score market. A problem with this strategy is that if you wait too long before entering the Match Odds and Correct Score markets after a goal is scored, for example at a score of 2-0 or 0-2, the Match odds may stabilize, whilst the Correct Score odds continue to shorten. The effect of that is your potential profit may be reduced, especially if more goals are scored. So, before entering the market, use the spreadsheet to check for the potential profit. An advantage of this strategy. If you have layed the winning team and a goal is scored by the losing team before you have placed bets in the Correct Score market, the odds of the winning team should lengthen to some degree. This offers an excellent opportunity to hedge out of the Match Odds market with a bet on the winning team at higher odds than your lay. A hedge spreadsheet is provided to show the stakes required for a successful hedge in this situation.
