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Example:
A city has a recorded population during last century as presented in the table, calculate the forecast population for the next 40 years and the firefighting requirements. If rate of water consumption= 200 L/consumer /day, calculate 3 the city water consumption in m /d. Year
Population
Increasing
Percentage of Increasing
1900
65000
-----
----
1910
73000
8000
12.30
1920
82000
9000
12.30
1930
86000
4000
4.90
1940
92000
6000
7.00
1950
100000
8000
8.70
1960
95000
5000
-5.00
1970
110000
15000
15.80
1980
121000
11000
10.00
1990
185000
64000
52.90
2000
205000
20000
10.80
2010
245000
40000
19.50
Geometrical method Pn = P (1 + r) n Mathematical method Pn = P + a × n Where: Pn= Population after specific period (from one to 10 years) P =The last population n = number of periods a = average of increasing r = percentage of average of increasing Notice: Each period has a % of increasing more than 25% or negative value must be omitted from calculation, such as year 1990, and year 1960.
SOLUTION: The average of increasing a= 13444 consumers The average of percentage of increasing r=11.2555% = 0.11255 The population of future for years 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2060 Use periods n =1,2,3,4,5 year
QUANTITIES OF WATER SUPPLY: For the proper design of water supply system for a city or a town a basic study and knowledge of the population, present and future, w ater consumption and source of supply should be at hand. Among need data are the following: i- Design period, for which the proposed system and its component structures and equipment are to be adequate. ii- Design population, to be served in the future and population density in the different districts. iii- Design flow, in terms of per capita water consumption. iv- Fire demand. Design Period For Water Supply Structures: Water supply system must be designed to serve the future population as well as the present population. In water works the periods of design ranges from 30 to 50 years in the future. NOTE: In our project we take the design period 40 years. Before moving to the calculation we must mention that: Population of 2030= 2* population of 2010 Population of 2050= 3* population of 2010 Population and average consumption: Population estimation for 2050 :
