Dwelling 2.0: Exploring Changing View of "Dwelling" and the Impact on the Real Estate Industry

INITIATIVE UPDATE:

EXPLORING CHANGING VIEWS OF “DWELLING “DWELLING” ” AND THE IMPACT ON OUR INDUSTRY. 10.20.16 STRATEGIC THINKING ADVISORY COMMITTEE, NATIONAL NA TIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REAL REALTORS TORS® MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC | © 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

1

CONTENTS

!

Initiative Initiat ive Background Background

!

Research objectives and methodology

!

Key highlights highlights

!

Detailed findings

!

Appendix

MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC | © 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

2

INITIATIVE BACKGROUND


3

OBJECTIVE:

WHAT EMERGING TRENDS WIL TRENDS WILL L AFFE AFFECT THE WAY PEOPLE VIEW & USE LIVING SPACE? SPACE? MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC | © 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

4

WHY:

TO EXPOSE WAYS THEY MIGHT IMPACT REAL ESTATE AND LEAD TO FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES OPPORTUNITIES.. MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC | © 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

5

TRENDS What do we mean? !

Trends are the emergence of changing chang ing consumer behaviors

!

Those behaviors are created by their experiences—no matter where those experiences come from

!

They need to be looked at “outside-in” ! !

expectations & needs Consumers = behaviors, expectations Industries = what they’re doing to address them


6

EXPLORING NEW VIEWS OF “DWELLING “DWELLING” ” Output

!

A set of tes testable table hypotheses on those trends (behaviors (behaviors)) we feel are most likely to have significant impact on views of living space


7

EXPLORING NEW VIEWS OF “DWELLING “DWELLING” ” How trends fit TRENDS

DOMAINS SEGMENT INSIGHTS SOLUTIONS


8

PROCESS To get to tested trend hypotheses Activity

Prepare session plan, exercises and materials

Develop session parameters, overview, homework

Step 1

INTAKE

Involvement Core Team

Final report & findings

Steps 4 & 3

Steps 6 & 7

EXPERTS & PREP

SESSION & REFINE

TEST & REPORT

Review

Attend Prep Meeting:

Complete Homework

Review

Chicago

5/11

6/23–24

0

1

2

3

4

5

date

4/4

4/11

4/18

4/25

5/2

5/9

6

5/16

7

5/23

8

5/30

Review

Attend Session:

DC, 1:30–3:30

week


Conduct quantitative study

Develop testing plan & questionnaire

Steps 2 & 3

Review

Committee

Conduct Session

9/30

9

10

11

12

13

14

6/6

6/13

6/20

6/27

7/4

7/11

15

7/18

16

17

7/25 8/1 8/8

18

19 20

8/15 8/22

21 22 23 24 25

8/29 9/5 9/12 9/19

9/26 10/3

26

18

19

10/10

10/17

10/24

9

RESEARCH OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY


10

RESEARCH OBJECTIVES NAR Trends Trends Prediction Predicti on Market: !

Measure predicted likelihood of future trends related to dwelling space among U.S. consumers

!

Understand qualitative diagnostics or “clues” that can help explain why each trend is likely to happen (or not)

!

For the more probable trends, uncover guidance around how, where, and among whom they will be most likely to unfold

!

Inform decisions on where to focus future f uture efforts efforts


11

THE NINE TRENDS TESTED The trends were tested in an online study in September 2016. The trends were collaboratively developed in the NAR Dwelling 2.0 Workshop on June 23 – 24, 2016. Trend Name

Trend “Definition”

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence means increasingly-effective versions of things like Roomba, Siri, Nest, music/ movie recommendations, automated customer service support bots, Google driverless cars, etc.

Controlling How We Age

Actively control how they age means things like n ot retiring, aging at home, choosing how and when they die, etc.

Internet of Things

The “internet of things” means the network of physical devices, devices, vehicles, buildings and other items that are embedded with electronics, software, software, sensors, actuators, and network connectivity that enable these objects to collect and exchange data.

Minimalist Lifestyle

A minimalist lifestyle means keeping life simple by doing things such as renting instead of owning, sharing livi ng spaces or cars, owning smaller/tiny/modular smaller/tiny/modular/mobile /mobile homes, having fewer children or none at all, etc.

Multi-generational Living

Multi-generational living means that grandparents, grandparents, parents, and children live together or in close proximity to one another.

Non-T Non-Traditional Life Choices

Nontraditional life choices means things like not going to college, not buying a home, not buying a car, car, delaying marriage and children, etc., so that they might pursue their passions or an alternative path.

Nontraditional working environment means a job environment that is vir tual, transient, or otherwise not Non-Traditional employer. Working Environment in a traditional workplace location under a single, consistent employer.

Physically Part of Community

Physically becoming part of a community means taking steps like joining and participating in clubs and groups, moving to live in more concentrated concentrated urban areas, etc.

Virtual Reality

Augmented reality and virtual reality means playing games like Pokémon Go, using headsets like Oculus Rift or Google Cardboard, utilizing virtual tours to shop and make purchases, interacting consistently consistently with friends and family via some form of video, etc.


12

PARTICIP ARTICIPANT ANT DEMOGRAP DEMOGRAPHICS HICS GENDER

1505

51% 49%

U.S. CONSUMERS

AGE Millennial

GenX

Boomer

Silent

Total

Female

12%

14%

19%

6%

51%

Male

12%

15%

17%

5%

Total

24%

29%

36%

11%

49% 100%

ADDITIONAL DEMOGRAPHICS Marital Status

Married

Not Married

61%

39%

Children

Children

No children

71%

29%

1-2

3 or more

56%

43%

Non real estate

Real estate and rental and leasing

97%

3%

HH Size Industry

REGION !"#

!&#

./0-1+2,-

!%#

No

Yes

41%

58%

Education

College

No college

58%

42%

HH Income

$34K and under

$35K to $7 $74K 4K

$75K plus

27%

31%

42%

Homeowner

Own free & clear

Paying mortgage

Rent

Other

44%

30%

22%

4%

Ethnicity

African-American

Hispanic/Latino Hispanic/Lati no

Caucasian

Other

5%

6%

88%

2%

Working for Pay


'()*+,-

!!#

3/4-1 5+,-

13

QUESTIONNAIRE QUES TIONNAIRE DESIGN !

Questions were designed to measure the likelihood li kelihood of each of the possible stated outcomes. Participants were not asked for their individual preference, but rather make a judgment on what the general consumer base would do. This not only incorporates incorpor ates their individual pref preference erences, s, but also al so the tacit knowledge about the preferences of their friends, family, professional colleagues, and acquaintances.

!

Each participant evaluated three randomly selected trends. For each trend, nine questions were asked: !

Will the trend happen?

!

Why will trend happen? What will be result of trend happening?

! ! ! ! ! ! !

!

What will be most common form of the trend? When will trend become common? Who will most likely participate (income)? Who will most likely participate (ethnicity)? Where will trend be most common? Who will most likely influence the trend?

Verbatim comments were solicited for each question to provide directional diagnostics on respondent rationale. rationale.


14

TOKENS AND METRICS !

Each participant equally receiv received ed 100 tokens to invest in questions where they t hey had the best knowledge or judgment.

!

Participants were asked to review review all the questions and answer only those where they had a reasonable judgment and invest based on their t heir confidence. confidence.

!

As participants invest tokens in outcomes, the “score” of each possible outcome changes in real-time, with the sum of scores equal to 100.

Key Metrics Likelihood % Probability

% of People Response Mix

63% 58%

Calculated probability of statement being true. Based on number of respondents and strength of individual responses. Ranges from 0-100%

Proportion of responses indicating this outcome. Ranges from 0-100%

Strength Meter How strongly respondents felt about their answer answers s


Overall certainty demonstrated in the speed and size of the response. Ranges from 0-10

15

PREDICTION LIKELIHOOD INDEX (PLI) Based on the collective judgment of the participants over thousands of predictive questions, interpretation interpretation tiers have been developed for a Prediction Likelihood Index (PLI).

!

100%

Over 75%: A very high likelihood li kelihood of happening. Examination of

participant comment will point to the rationale of the high likelihood. 80%

Between 60 – 75%: Participa Participants nts indicating a directional

60% I L P

preference in the likelihood, but not strong enough to approach certainty. Confidence may have been held back by either a timeframe or magnitude within the stated question. Between 40-60%: By definition, a coin flip at this point.

40%

20%

0%

Examining the relative strength/participation may indicate there is not enough informat information ion for participants to form a judgment. Between 25 – 40%: Still possible that confidence might

increase. Close examination of negative verbatims may add additional insight into the “why” behind the prediction. Under 25%: A very low likelihood of happening. Verbatims may

reveal what factors drove the low result. MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC | © 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

16

VISUALIZING TYPES OF FUTURES The “F “Futures utures Cone” Cone”

Adapted from Hancock & Bezold (1994) and Candy (2010)


17

KEY HIGHLIGHTS


18

KEY HIGHLIGHTS !

Consumers predict that nearly all of the trends tested (eight out of nine) are highly likely to occur. These hypothesized future trends appear to already be in the process of becoming reality! !

!

Respondents expect these trends to be commonplace between 10 and 17 years from now on average. !

!

Two have an expected likelihood of 90% or higher: “Controlling How We Age” and “Virtual Reality”

Technology-driven trends like “Virtual Reality” and “The Internet of Things” in particular are viewed as inevitable, and more than half expect them to come to fruition within wi thin the next five years.

Economic factors (both real and perceived) are driving the likelihood of occurrence for many of the trends.


19

KEY HIGHLIGHTS !

!

The maturation of four trends in particular seem likely to have the most direct implications for the real estate industry, because they are likely to create demand for physical changes to U.S. living and working spaces. !


!

Minimalist Lifest Lifestyle yle

!


!

Non-traditional Working Environmen Environmentt

The other five trends will certainly impact people’s perception and usage of dwelling spaces, but may have more of an indirect impact on NAR member issues. !

Virtual Reality

!

Internet of Things

!


!


!

Non-traditional Life Choices


20

SUMMARY SUMMAR Y OF TREND TREND LIKELIHOOD !

Respondents predict that most of the trends are highly likely to occur

Predicted Likelihood 91

90

87

Very high likelihood

86

82

80

80

75 56


Virtual Reality

Q: In the future, will people …? Yes or no? MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC | © 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Internet of Things




Nontraditional Working Environment


Non-Traditional Life Choices

21

SUMMARY SUMMAR Y OF TREND TREND LIKELIHOOD !

Respondents predict that most of the trends are highly likely to occur

Short-term (1 – 5 yrs)

Mid (6 – 20 yrs)

Long-term (21 + yrs)

Adapted from Hancock & Bezold (1994) and Candy (2010) Q: In the future, will people …? Yes or no? MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC | © 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

22

SUMMARY SUMMAR Y OF TREND TREND TIMING !

More than half of respondents believe that all of the trends will become common within the next 10 years years..

Predicted Timing 51+ years 31 to 50 years 21 to 30 years 11 to 20 years 6 to 10 years

9 9 15 13

4 5 5 14 20

7 5 7 10 19

19 52

34 Controlling How We Age

Base Size

162

24

7 7 8

7 7 9

6 6 9

7 8 8

9 7 8

14

18

16

13

19

23

19

21

24

26 52

0 to 5 years

7 7 7

29 Virtual Reality

201

42

40

42

39 24

Internet of Things







195

211

207

199

176

194

170

Q When (how many years from now) will … start to be common? MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC | © 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

33

23

SUMMARY OF TREND REGION !

Respondents believe that many of the trends tested are most likely to emerge in the northeastern states, with the exc exceptions eptions of Virtual Reality and Minimalist Lifestyle Lifest yle trends in the west.

Predicted Region West

South

25

37

19 16

Midwest

Northeast

16

26

23

16

17

13

12

15 40


32 Virtual Reality

25

46

Internet of Things

21

26

17

20

16

17

18

43

41



21 48

48


22

13

22 12

Q In what region of the country will … be most likely to happen? MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC | © 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

35

22

30

31




24

SUMMARY SUMMAR Y OF TREND ADOPTERS’ INCOME !

Respondents believe believe the people most likely to take part in the trends will be either upper-middle or lower-middle income, with the ex exception ception of lower income (0-25th (0-25th percentile)) for the Multi-generational Living trend. percentile t rend.

Predicted Income Level Upper income (100% to 76%) Upper-middle income (75% to 51%) Lower-middle income (50% to 26%) Lower income (bottom 25%)

18

21

17

27

8

11

18

13

12

12 28

35

47

52

42

36 49

17 17

13

14

17

17

17

Virtual Reality

Internet of Things


28


Q Who will be will be most likely to …? MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC | © 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

46

20 20

39

32

20

22

28



22 41 26 Minimalist Lifestyle



25

SUMMARY OF TREND ADOPTERS’ ETHNICITY !

Respondents believe believe that the people most likely to take part in the trends will be Caucasian, with the exc exception eption of Hispanics for the Multi-generational Living trend.

Predicted Ethnicity Other Hispanic

10 11

Asian

13

African American Caucasian

12

8 8 10 9

9 7 10 11

9 6 10 7

8 12 7 10

9

42

10

7

11

13

15

12

10 10

7 11

11

57

59



15

13 55

65

62

68

63

13

52

24 Controlling How We Age

Virtual Reality

Q Which ethnic group will be most likely to …? MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC | © 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Internet of Things





26

SUMMARY OF TREND SUMMARY TREND LIKELIHOOD BY GEN GENERA ERATIO TION N Predicted Likelihood Millennials Very high likelihood

96 91 74

9692

93 87 86

74

Gen X 96

88 8381

Baby Boomers 91

88

80

88

92

62

86 75 63

90

53 42


Virtual Reality

Q: In the future, will people …? Yes or no? MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC | © 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Internet of Things



38

38





27

DETAILED FINDINGS


28

28

Predicted Likelihood:

CONTROLLING HOW WE AGE Likelihood Score

d e d n E d e s o l C

People living longer/healthier lives

24%

More knowledge about aging/health

17%

Want control of all aspects of life

14%

Aging at home near family and friends is becoming more important

12%

“Life expectancy has increased so the need to dictate how the end years go is needed” d e “We all want to be in control of our life” d n E “More and more people are taking an active n role in choosing how and where they live e p their lives in old age” O

“I think science is progressing every day and making changes all the time”

% 91

Likelihood Score

More services to help age at home t l Health diagnostic/monitoring tech u s e Increase in new homes built for aging R

19% 14%

More contractors retrofitting for aging

13%

Aging in their current home

34%

t a Aging in “active adult” community m r o Aging close to their children F

s r e c n e u l f n I

20%

13% 10%

Having current home retrofitted

10%

The aging person

32%

The aging person’s children

14%

The aging person’s grandchildren

10%

The government

8%

Q In the future, will people actively pursue control of how they and their loved ones age? (By actively control how they age, we mean things like not retiring, aging at home, choosing how and when they die, etc.) Yes or no? MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC | © 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

29


% 90

VIRTUAL REALITY Likelihood Score


Escapes from real life

31%

Shopping will require it

14%

Employers will require it

10%

Technology will blur lines of reality

9%

“The world is becoming more and more technology based so it would make sense d that this reality become the true reality”

e d n “New technology sometimes takes a while to E be mainstream but if it’s a good way of n communication it will eventually take off” e p O “Look at how many people stare at their

phones all the time now. VR will really give them that escape.”

Likelihood Score

More time spent playing games Decrease in business travel t l u Fewer real estate agents showing s e R property

13% 11%

More participation in virtual communities

9%

Virtual reality games

43%

t a Virtual medical diagnosis/treatment m r o Virtual travel F s r e c n e u l f n I

32%

11% 9%

Virtual socializing

7%

Entertainment industry

31%

Immediate family members

9%

Friends

8%

Product providers/marketers

8%

Q In the future, will people increasingly integrate augmented reality and virtual reality into their lives? (By augmented reality and virtual reality, we mean playing games like Pokémon Go, using headsets like Oculus Rift or Google Cardboard, utilizing virtual tours to shop and make purchases, interacting MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC | © 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

30


% 87

INTERNET OF THINGS Likelihood Score


More devices on market

35%

Increased desire to monitor/ monitor/control

24%

Demand for workforce connectivity

13%

Demand for more efficient/less expensive medical care

12%

“There will be no choice but to accept it. For example, cash as a currency, will most likely d not even exist in 10 years”

e d “Because they will have grown up with these n E items and be used to them” n e “It makes the way we live more efficient” p O

“It will be more difficult to find things that are not part of the internet of things”

Likelihood Score

Increased demand for privacy/security t l More smart/connected homes u s e Desire to get “off the grid” R

19% 16%

More diagnostic info/interpretation

11%

Person to home/devices/appliances home/devices/appliances

46%

t a Person to vehicle m r o Person to medical community F


27%

11% 11%

Person to businesses/providers

10%

Product and service providers

39%

Employers

11%

The medical community

10%

The government

7%

Q In the future, will people fully embrace the "internet of things"? (By the “internet of things”, we mean the network of physical devices, vehicles, buildings and other items that are embedded with electronics, software, sensors, actuators, and network connectivity that enable these objects to collect MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC | © 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

31


ARTIFICIAL ARTIF ICIAL INTELLIGENCE Likelihood Score


To make life easier

55%

To save time

15%

To save money

7%

To eliminate human error

7%

“It makes life easier and frees up more time for them to do other activities” d “Technology is developing very quickly” e d n E “increasingly-effective versions of things” n e “We will want more mundane tasks done by p O machine than by human hands”

% 86

Likelihood Score

Decrease in customer service jobs t l Homes equipped to accommodate AI u s e Increase in hardware/software jobs R

16% 12%

Home appliance decisions based on AI

11%

Transportation

25%

t a Environment/climate Environment/climate control m r o Customer service F


22%

24% 16%

Cleaning

9%

Family members

27%

Home appliance industry

22%

Auto industry

15%

Real estate/developer industry

8%

Q In the future, will people rely heavily on “artificial intelligence”? (By artificial intelligence, we mean increasingly-effective versions of things like Roomba, Siri, Nest, music/movie recommendations, automated customer service support bots, Google driverless cars, etc.) Yes or no? MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC | © 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

32


MINIMALIST LIFESTYLE Likelihood Score


This will be all they can afford

34%

They care about future of environment

21%

To spend more on experiences

14%

To provide greater financial security

10%

“Rising cost of living will force people towards a simpler lifestyle” d “No choice when in debt and/or not having a e d high paying job” n E - “People will focus more on having good n e experiences instead of possessions” p O “They will feel like it is the right thing to do”

% 82

Likelihood Score

Increase in flexible housing options t l More environmentally-friendly options u s e More options for shared living spaces R

19% 13%

More shared transportation options

10%

Fewer children than parents did

21%

t a Environmentally-friendly living m r o Renting instead of owning F


32%

19% 10%

Owning a tiny home

9%

Couples with no children

33%

Single adults

29%

Parents

18%

Child(ren)

10%

Q In the future, will people be living a more “minimalist” lifestyle? (By a minimalist lifestyle, we mean keeping life simple by doing things such as renting instead of owning, sharing living spaces or cars, owning smaller/tiny/modular/mobile homes, having fewer children or none at all, etc.) Yes or no? MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC | © 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

33


MULTI-GENERATIONAL LIVING Likelihood Score


Increasing housing costs

25%

People will have insufficient savings

10%

Increasing costs of education

10%

People will take on caregiver role

9%

“Younger people can’t afford living on their own and older people can’t afford assisted d living homes”

e d “Parents living longer and children having n E college debt” n e “Baby Boomers will need to be taken care of p O by their children if they can’t afford a home”

“Everyone wants to be near each other in case help is needed”

% 80 Likelihood Score

More MGL units w/ flexible floor plans t l City planners will develop MGL options u s e Regulation changes (land use, zoning) R

21% 16%

Migration to urban settings

12%

All living together in single home

48%

t a Separate units in same building m r o Living within driving distance F


24%

18% 16%

Living within walking distance

13%

Children

36%

Parents

25%

Grandparents

18%

Grandchild(ren)

12%

Q In the future, will people gravitate toward multi-generational living? (By multi-generational living, we mean grandparents, parents, and children living together or in close proximity to one another..) Yes or no? MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC | © 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

34


NON-TRADITIONAL NON-TRADITIONA L WORKING ENVIRONMENT Likelihood Score


Can do work with phone/laptop

40%

Employees demand flexibility

15%

People create own job opportunities

14%

Traditional companies cut costs

10%

“Due to technological advances” “The need for flexibility”

d e d “More cost effective for both employees and n E employers” n e “This is a convenient way to work, and one p O does not need transportation every day to do

the job”

% 80 Likelihood Score

Companies reduce office space size t l Home offices more common u s Companies hire more freelancers e R

35% 26% 20%

Shared office spaces for short-term lease

11%

Home offices

63%

t a Mobile offices m r o Shared office spaces F

19% 11%

Other

7%

s Employees r e c n Employers e u l f Other n I

49%

Q In the future, will people likely be working in a nontraditional working environment? (By nontraditional working environment, we mean a job environment that is virtual, transient, or otherwise not in a traditional workplace location under a single, consistent employer.) Yes or no? MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC | © 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

35% 16%

35


PHYSICALLY PART OF COMMUNITY Likelihood Score


Interact w/ others who share interests

25%

Avoid being alone/isolated as they age

23%

More access to activities

16%

Sense of belonging

10%

“Being physically part of a community is essential to a person’s feelings of self-worth d and happiness” e d “People already feel disconnected by n E technology so I believe there will be a - resurgence of face to face interaction” n e p “They want to belong to something.” O

“People are wanting to help communities and get involved in them.”

% 75

Likelihood Score

Living decisions based on community t l Increased participation in groups/clubs u s e Renting instead of buying R

12% 10%

Revitalization of downtown areas

6%

Suburban areas with thriving downtowns

34%

t a m Neighborhoods w/ community centers r o F Sports/Philanthropic groups/clubs


26%

14% 9%

Urban cities

9%

Friends

34%

Local governments/municipalities

18%

Family members

16%

Social/Phianthropic/Hobby clubs

15%

Q In the future, will people take steps toward physically becoming part of a community? (By physically becoming part of a community, we mean steps like joining and participating participating in clubs and groups, groups, moving moving to live in more concentrated concentrated urban urban areas, etc.) etc.) Yes Yes or no? no? MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC | © 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

36


NON-TRADITIONA NONTRADITIONAL L LIFE LIFE CHOICES CHOICES Likelihood Score


Want better life for children

29%

Want to encourage more freedom

20%

Debt-free viewed as necessity

15%

ROI on 4-yr college won’t pay out

9%

“Dissatisfaction with current society” “Stereotypes are falling behind with the

d e passage of time” d n E “Since the current generation fell short on - tradition, they will be encouraging their n e children to not think traditional.” p O “They will not be able to help their children

financially.”

% 56

Likelihood Score

Home ownership will decline t l Online education accreditation accreditation important u s e Shortage of full-time skilled workers R

12% 12%

College enrollment will decline

11%

Not taking on debt

19%

t a Life experience as education alternative m r o Not having children F


13%

13% 13%

Learning online instead of classroom

12%

Social media

30%

Grandparents

15%

Friends

13%

Teachers

10%

Q In the future, will people strongly encourage their children to make “nontraditional” life choices? (By nontraditional life choices we mean things like not going to college, not buying a home, not buying a car, delaying delaying marriage and children, etc., so that they might pursue their passions or an alternative alternative MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC | © 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

37

APPENDIX


38

Controlling How We Age Actively control how they age means things like not retiring, aging at home, choosing how and when they die, etc.


39

CONTROLLING HOW WE AGE •

•

•

•

•

91% likelihood of occurrence driven by increasing lifespans and increased knowledge/ knowledge/awar awareness eness Strong increased demand for services and technologies assisting the trend Strongest influencer of trend is the aging population themselves and immediate family Remaining in current home is predicted to be most common manifestation of trend Caucasians seen as highest probability ethnic group with impact across all income groups

•

53% likelihood will occur over next 10 years

•

Highest probability of occurrence in Northeast and West


40

+5// ?,3?/, .625D,/E ?97<9, 631273/ 38 ;30 2;,E .1@ 2;,57 /3D,@ 31,< .A,F

!' &

B1 2;, 89297,L 05// ?,3?/, .625D,/E ?97<9, 631273/ 38 ;30 2;,E .1@ 2;,57 /3D,@ 31,< .A,F

Keywords - YES

/5C,/5;33@ Results Breakout

Commentary

'G 0.12 "G /5D,

91%

Probable

Likelihood

Lo w

% Probability

Ave ra ge

)G 631273/ $G /31A,7

'(& '"&

*H58, ,I?,62.16E ;.< 5167,.<,@ <3 2;, 1,,@ 23 @562.2, ;30 2;, ,1@

High

0%

NotProbable

"%& '%&

100%

9%

E,.7< A3 5< ./<3 1,,@,@J* *+, .// 0.12 23 4, 51 631273/ 38 397 /58,* *K37, .1@ >37, ?,3?/, .7, 2.C51A .1 .625D, 73/, 51 6;33<51A ;30 .1@ 0;,7, 2;,E /5D, 2;,57 /5D,< 51 3/@ .A,* *B 2;51C <65,16, 5< ?73A7,<<51A ,D,[email protected] .1@ >.C51A 6;.1A,< .//

Said "Yes"


Said "No"

92%

8%

2;, 25>,*

Keywords - NO Average Ave rage

Average Ave rage

'G >96; "G 631273/

Strength Meter How strongly respondents felt about their answers

Low

Yes

High

4.7

Low

No

High

0.2

'!!"

))& ))&

*233 >96; /5C, ?/.E51A A3@*

*851.165./ 51.45/52E*

&!"

Segment Breakout How likel y each segment felt the outcome would be

%!"

*+, ;.D, 132 ,>47.6,@ ,92;.1.<5. ,1257,/E*

$!"

*:;,7, 5<1=2 >96; . ?,7<31 6.1 @3 23 631273/ A,2251A 3/@,7*

#!" !"

( )* )* +, +, )


-+ ,) ,)

-. ,, ,, )/ )//.+ ,

0 )/ )/ 1

233 *) *)4

5 ., .,) /6 /6

41

MOST LIKELY REASON Assuming this trend of people actively pursuing control of how they and their loved ones age actually does happen.... Which of the following is the most likely reason reason why people will actively pursue control of how they and their loved ones age?

Why will trend happen?

In-home care is readily available People are becoming more knowledgeable about aging and health People are going to live longer and healthier lives People want control of all aspects of their life The belief that aging at home close to family and friends is becoming more important There is negative media coverage of bad things happening to aging people who live in nursing homes/assisted living facilities They saw an aging friend or relative have a bad/sad experience O ther MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC | © 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Likelihood Score

% o f Trad e rs rs

Stre ng ng th

8%

5%

0.5

1 7%

21 %

2.1

24%

30%

3.2

1 4%

1 9%

1 .7

1 2%

11%

1 .5

8%

9%

0.6

9%

11%

0.8

7%

3%

0.5 42

MOST LIKELY RESULT Assuming this trend of people actively pursuing control of how they and their loved ones age actually does happen.... Which of these will be the most likely result of people actively pursuing control of how they and their loved ones age? What will be result of trend trend happening?

An increase in contractors who specialize in retrofitting homes for the aging An increase in development of new "active adult" planned communities An increase in new homes built specifically for the aging An increase in services that help older adults age at home (e.g. transportation, financial, medical) An increase in the availability of lower priced in-home care Assisted suicide will become more common Health diagnostic/monitoring technology will be more commonly utilized by the aging and their families Robotic assistance will become more common O ther MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC | © 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Likelihood Score

% of Trade rs rs

Stre ng ng th

1 3%

9%

1 .6

1 0%

1 2%

1 .2

1 4%

6%

1 .6

20%

30%

3.0

7%

7%

0.5

7%

6%

0.5

1 9%

29%

2.9

6%

3%

0.4

5%

3%

0.1 43

MOST LIKELY TYPE Assuming this trend of people actively pursuing control of how they and their loved ones age actually does happen.... In what ways will people most commonly pursue control over how they and their loved ones age?

What will be most common type? Aging close to a hos pital Aging close to an as sis ted living facility Aging close to their children Aging in an "active adult" planned community Aging in their current home C hoosing assisted suicide Having their current home retrofitted to be a safe place for aging Moving to a different house that is already retrofitted for aging Not retiring O ther


Likelihood % o f T rad e rs rs Score 4% 1% 6% 3% 1 0% 1 0%

Stre ng ng th 0.1 0.6 1 .1

1 3%

1 7%

2.3

34% 6%

40% 4%

6.2 0.6

1 0%

1 2%

1 .5

4%

3%

0.2

8% 6%

1 0% 3%

1 .4 0.6

44

MOST LIKELY TO INFLUENCE Assuming this trend of people actively pursuing control of how they and their loved ones age actually does happen.... Who will be most likely to influence people to actively pursue control over over how they and their loved ones age?

Who will most most likely influence influen ce? ? The aging person The aging person's children The aging person's doctor(s) The aging person's eldercare attorney The aging person's friends The aging persons grandchildren The aging person's spouse The government The media O ther


Likelihood % o f T rad e rs rs Score 32% 44% 1 4% 23% 7% 5% 5% 2% 7% 5% 1 0% 3% 6% 5% 8% 1 0% 7% 6% 5% 3%

Stre ng ng th 5.0 1 .9 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.2

45

MOST LIKELY ETHNICITY AND INCOME Assuming this trend of people actively pursuing control of how they and their loved ones age actually does happen.... Which ethnic group(s) will be most likely to actively pursue control of how they and their loved ones age?

Who will most likely participate (ethnic)? African American As ian C aucasian Hispanic O ther

Likelihood % o f Trad e rs rs Score 1 2% 4% 1 3% 6% 55% 85% 11% 5% 1 0% 3%

Stre ng ng th 0.3 0.4 5.1 0.2 0.1

Assuming this trend of people actively pursuing control of how they and their loved ones age actually does happen.... Who will be most likely to actively pursue control of how they and t heir loved ones age? age?

Who will most likely particip participat ate e (income)? Lower income (bottom 25%) Lower-middle income (26% to 50%) Upper-middle income (51 % to 75%) Upper income (76% to 1 00%)


Likelihood % of Trade rs rs Score 28% 1 7% 1 7% 1 8% 35% 52% 21 % 1 7%

Stre ng ngth 1 .3 0.5 2.3 0.9

46

MOST LIKELY GEOGRAPHY AND TIMEFRAME Assuming this trend of people actively pursuing control of how they and their loved ones age actually does happen.... In what region of the country will people be most likely to actively pursue control over how they and their loved ones age?

Where will it be most common?

Likelihood Score

% o f T ra rade rs rs

Stre ng ngth

Midwes t

1 6%

1 2%

0.5

Northeas t

40%

47%

2.6

S outh

1 9%

20%

0.8

W es t

25%

24%

1 .4

Assuming this trend of people actively pursuing control of how they and their loved ones age actually does happen.... When (how many years from now) will it be common for people to actively pursue control of how they and their loved age?

When will trend trend be common? common? 0 to 5 years 6 to 1 0 years 1 1 to 20 years 21 to 30 years 31 to 50 years 51 + years MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC | © 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Likelihood % o f Trad e rs rs Score 34% 52% 1 9% 23% 1 3% 1 3% 1 5% 8% 9% 3% 9% 3%

Stre ng ng th 3.4 1 .5 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.2 47

Virtual Reality Augmented reality and virtual reality means playing games like Pokémon Go, using headsets like Oculus Rift or Google Cardboard, utilizing virtual tours to shop and make purchases, interacting consistently with friends and family via some form of video, etc.


48

VIRTUAL VIRTU AL REALITY REALITY •

•

•

90% likelihood of occurrence was heavily attributed to need for escape from real life and resulting in increase time spent playing games Entertainment industry seen as largest influencer Caucasians seen as highest probability ethnic group to integrate into their lives

•

Predicted to impact upper-middle income more than others

•


•

Highest probability of occurrence in Northeast


49

G833 D+2D3+ 81/<+9681435 81.+4<9.+ 9=47+1.+@ <+938.5 91@ A8<.=93 <+938.5 81.2 .0+8< 38A+6H

!O &

F1 .0+ >=.=<+K ,833 D+2D3+ 81/<+968143 81/<+9681435 5 81.+4<9. + 9=47+1.+@ <+938.5 91@ A8<.=93 <+938.5 81.2 . 0+8< 38A+6H

Keywords - YES

38:+38022@ Results Breakout

Commentary

"I .+/0123245 $I 1+,

90%

Probable

Likelihood

L ow

% Probability

Ave ra ge

High

0%

NotProbable

100%

10%

Said "Yes"


Said "No"

84%

16%

$%& "(&

%I <+938.5 'I .<+1@

"'& !&

)E0+ ,2<3@ 86 ;+/27814 72<+ 91@ 72<+ .+/0123245 ;96+@ 62 8. ,2=3@ 79:+ 6+16+ .09. .086 <+938.5 ;+/27+ .0+ .<=+ <+938.5) )*+, .+/0123245 627+.87+6 .9:+6 9 ,083+ .2 ;+ 7 9816.<+97 ;=. 8> 8.?6 9 422@ ,95 2> /277=18/9.821 8. ,833 +A+1.=9335 .9:+2>>B) .9:+2>>B) )L22: 9. 02, 7915 D+2D3+ 6.9<+ 9. .0+8< D021+6 933 .0+ .87+ 12,B MN ,833 <+9335 48A+ .0+7 .09. +6/9D+B) )E+/0123245 )E+/0123245 86 /216.91.35 9@A91/814 91@ F @2 12. 6++814 8. 6. 2D ,8.0 >=.=<+ 4+1+<9.8216)


Average Ave rage

"I 38A+ $I <+93

Strength Meter How strongly respondents respond ents felt about their answers

Low

Yes

High

5.9

Low

No

High

0.5

'!!"

"!& "!&

%I ,2<3@ 'I 9>>2<@

"%& "%&

)F.6 .22 /21>=6814 >2< 726. D+2D3+P3+)

)E0+5 9<+ 12. 42814 .2 3+. 627 +.0814 .9:+ 2A+< .0+8< 38A+6)

&!"

Segment Breakout How lik ely each segment felt the outcome would be

%!"

)J=6. 9 >9@K <+938.5 86 62 7=/0 ;+..+< .09. A8<.=93)

$!"

)C+2D3+ ,833 12. ;+ 9;3+ .2 9>>2<@ 8.B)

#!" !"

( )* )* +, +, )


-+ ,) ,)

-. ,, ,, )/ )// .+ ,

0 )/ )/1

23 3* 3*)4

5. ,) ,) /6 /6

50

MOST LIKELY REASON Assuming this trend t rend of people increasingly integrating integrating augmented reality and virtual reality into their lives actually does happen.... Which of the following is the most likely reason why people will increasingly integrate augmented and virtual reality into their lives? Why will trend happen?

People will be looking for more escapes from real life People will be required to use it by their employer/workplace People will desire closer social connections to others not in the same physical location location People will desire closer work connections to others not in the same physical location location

Likelihood Score

% o f T ra rad er ers

Stre ng ng th

31 %

44%

6.1

1 0%

8%

1 .9

7%

5%

0.7

7%

4%

0.9

People will desire virtual experiences that they could not normally afford in real life

7%

1 0%

1 .2

People will desire virtual experiences that they could not physically do in real life

6%

11%

1 .0

1 4%

8%

2.0

Technological advances a dvances will continually continually redefine what is considered a community

4%

5%

0.4

Technological advances will continue to blur the lines of what is considered reality

9%

8%

1 .3

3%

1%

0.2

3%

3%

0.2

Shopping will require it (homes, automobiles, goods, services, etc.)

This will allow people to declutter/have fewer physical things O ther MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC | © 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

51

MOST LIKELY RESULT Assuming this trend t rend of people increasingly integrating integrating augmented reality and virtual reality into their lives actually does happen.... Which of these will be the most likely result of increased integration integration of augmented and virtual reality into people's lives?

What will be result of trend happening? A decrease in business travel A decrease in demand for real estate agents to show property A decrease in travel for leisure An increase in participation in virtual communities and gatherings An increase in time spent playing games Fewer showrooms for products and services home Less space needed for recreation in the home Lower occupancy in office buildings S maller retail spaces O ther


Likelihood % o f T rad e rs rs Score 1 3% 6%

Stre ng ng th 1 .8

11%

9%

1 .4

6%

7%

0.7

6%

1 0%

0.9

32%

49%

6.7

8%

6%

1 .0

9%

0%

0.0

6%

5%

0.7

4% 6% 8%

2% 6% 9%

0.2 0.9 1 .2

52

MOST LIKELY TYPE Assuming this trend t rend of people increasingly integrating integrating augmented reality and virtual reality into their lives actually does happen.... What type of "virtual reality" will be most common?

What will be most common type? Virtual collaborative work environments Virtual communities Virtual dating Virtual event attendance Virtual family interactions

Likelihood % o f Trad e rs rs Score 4% 4% 2% 2% 5% 4% 2% 1% 4% 4%

Stre ng ng th 1 .0 0.2 0.8 0.1 0.7

Virtual medical diagnostics and treatment

11%

1 2%

2.1

Virtual product sampling Virtual real estate tours Virtual reality games Virtual socializing Virtual tes t drives Virtual travel O ther

2% 2% 43% 7% 5% 9% 3%

4% 2% 52% 7% 5% 8% 3%

0.3 0.2 1 0.0 1 .7 0.9 1 .4 0.4


53

MOST LIKELY TO INFLUENCE Assuming this trend t rend of people increasingly integrating integrating augmented reality and virtual reality into their lives actually does happen.... Who will be most likely to influence increased integration integration of augmented and virtual reality into people's lives?

Who will most most likely influence influen ce? ?

Auto manufacturers Business owners (employers) C oworkers Friends Home builders Immediate family members Medical professionals Product providers/marketers R eal es tate agents /professionals The entertainment industry The government Travel industry O ther


Likelihood Score

7% 5% 4% 8% 6% 9% 5% 8% 5% 31 % 5% 4% 3%

% o f Trade rs rs

3% 4% 3% 9% 2% 9% 5% 1 3% 4% 47% 2% 3% 3%

Stre ng ngth

0.8 0.4 0.2 1 .0 0.4 1 .1 0.5 1 .3 0.5 5.8 0.4 0.3 0.2

54

MOST LIKELY ETHNICITY AND INCOME Assuming this trend t rend of people increasingly integrating integrating augmented reality and virtual reality into their lives actually does happen.... Which ethnic group will be most likely to increasingly integrate integrate augmented and virtual reality into their lives? Who will most likely participate Likelihood % o f T rad e rs rs Stre ng ng th (ethnic)? Score African American 9% 6% 0.4 Asian 1 0% 7% 0.6 C aucas ian 65% 80% 7.6 His panic 8% 4% 0.4 O ther 8% 5% 0.2 Assuming this trend t rend of people increasingly integrating integrating augmented reality and virtual reality into their lives actually does happen.... Who will be most likely to increasingly integrate integrate augmented and virtual reality reality into their lives? Who will most likely participate participate Likelihood % o f T ra rade rs rs Stre ng ngth (income)? Score Lower income (bottom 25%) 1 7% 1 2% 0.9 Lower-middle income (26% to 50%) 1 7% 24% 1 .1 Upper-middle income (51 % to 75%) 47% 56% 4.2 Upper income (76% to 1 00%) 1 8% 11% 1 .1


55

MOST LIKELY GEOGRAPHY AND TIMEFRAME Assuming this trend t rend of people increasingly integrating integrating augmented reality and virtual reality into their lives actually does happen.... In what region of the country will people increasingly integrate augmented and virtual reality into their lives be most likely to happen?


Likelihood Score

% of Trade rs rs

Stre ng ngth

Midwes t

1 5%

9%

0.5

Northeas t

32%

38%

2.0

S outh

1 6%

1 0%

0.6

W es t

37%

50%

2.7

Assuming this trend t rend of people increasingly integrating integrating augmented reality and virtual reality into their lives actually does happen.... When (how many years from now) will people increasingly integrating augmented and virtual reality into their lives start to be common?


Likelihood % o f Trad e rs rs Score 52% 58% 20% 28% 1 4% 1 3% 5% 2% 5% 1% 4% 1%

Stre ng ng th 8.1 2.8 1 .9 0.2 0.2 0.0 56

Internet of Things The “internet of things” means the network of physical devices, vehicles, buildings and other items that are embedded with electronics, software, sensors, actuators, and network connectivity that enable these objects to collect and exchange data.


57

INTERNET OF THINGS •

•

•

•

•

87% likelihood of occurrence driven by increase proliferation of devices and desire for convenience by consumers This trend will result in increase demand for security products/services Person to home devices will be the most common Caucasians seen as highest probability ethnic group to fully embrace Predicted to impact middle to upper income more than others

•

71% likelihood will occur within 10 years

•



58

B455 ;*9;5* A-552 *<>8,+* 01* (4:0*8:*0 9A 014:7.(C

NO &

L: 01* A-0-8*@ 3455 ;*9;5* A-552 *<>8,+* 01* (4:0*8:*0 9A

Commentary

014:7.(C

Keywords - YES

54J*54199= Results Breakout

"D 4:0*8:*0 ED 0*+1:95972

87%

Probable

Likelihood

L ow

% Probability

Ave ra ge

'D +194+* %D 014:7

"'& "'&

(?1*8* 3455 >* :9 +194+* +194+* >-0 09 ,++*;0 40G H98 *I,<;5*@ +,.1@ ,. ,

High

0%

NotProbable

"%& "'&

100%

+-88*:+2@ 3455 <9.0 54J*52 :90 *6*: *I4.0 *I4.0 4: "$ 2*,8.G K6*82014:7 ()*+,-.* 01*2 3455 1,6* 7893: -; 3401 01*.* 40*<. ,:= 3455 >* -.*= 09 01*<(

13%

(L0 <,J*. 01* 3,2 3* 546* <98* *AA4+4*:0G( (@)*+,-.* 40 3455 >* <98* =4AA4+-50 09 A4:= 014:7. 01,0 ,8* :90 ;,80

Said "Yes"


Said "No"

87%

13%

9A 01* 4:0*8:*0 9A 014:7.(


Average Ave rage

"D 014:7 ED 3,:0


Segment Breakout How lik ely each segment felt the outcome would be

Low

Yes

High

4.6

Low

No

High

0.6

"#& "#&

'D 4..-* %D .*+-8402

"$& "$&

(P*+-8402 4..-*. ,8* 099 .+,82G(

'!!"

(H*,8. 9A ;*8.9:,5 4:A9 >*4:7 +9<;89<4.*=M A*,8 9A 1,64:7

&!"

+9<;,:4*. 98 (796*8:<*:0( J:93 *6*82014:7 ,>9-0 01*<

%!"

(F846,+2 4..-*. ,8* 4<;980,:0 09 *6*829:*(

$!"

(?9 <,:2 014:7. +,: ,:= 3455 79 389:7(

#!" !"

( )* )* +, +, )


-+ ,) ,)

-. ,, ,, )/ )// .+ ,

0 )/ )/1

23 3* 3*)4

5. ,) ,) /6 /6

59

MOST LIKELY REASON Assuming this trend towards fully embracing the "internet of things" actually does happen.... Which of the following is the most likely reason reason why people will fully embrace embrace the "internet of things"?

Why will trend happen? People will desire an increased ability to monitor and control their home and work environments (e.g. climate, security, energy usage) The business world will demand greater connectivity of its workforce The medical community will use connectivity to make medical care more efficient efficient and less les s expensive The price of connected products will be affordable There will be more devices on the market that seamlessly connect the home, person,vehi person,vehicle, cle, business, medical providers and government O ther


Likelihood Score

% o f Trad e rs rs

Stre ng ng th

24%

37%

5.1

1 3%

1 2%

2.1

1 2%

9%

1 .7

11%

1 3%

1 .7

35%

31 %

5.6

6%

6%

0.8

60

MOST LIKELY RESULT Assuming this trend towards fully embracing the "internet of things" actually does happen.... Which of these will be the most likely result of people fully embracing the "internet of things"?

What will be result of trend trend happening?

People will experience information overload and will want be able to get "off the grid". There will be a rise in the need for personal/home IT specialists There will be an increase in demand for privacy/security products and services There will be an increase in demand for training to integrate connected devices There will be an increase in diagnostic information available and an increase in demand for outside interpretation of that information There will be more "smart"/connected homes on the market O ther


Likelihood Score

% o f Trad e rs rs

Stre ng ng th

1 6%

1 0%

2.2

9%

1 0%

1 .0

27%

31 %

4.6

9%

9%

1 .1

11%

1 0%

1 .7

1 9%

27%

3.4

9%

7%

1 .2

61

MOST LIKELY TYPE Assuming this trend towards fully embracing the "internet of things" actually does happen.... What type of connected devices will be most common?

What will be most common type?

Likelihood Score

% o f T rad e rs rs

Stre ng ng th

Person to business (product and service providers) Person to employer Person to government Person to home (including the devices and appliances within the home)

1 0%

8%

1 .4

7% 1 0%

5% 4%

1 .0 1 .2

46%

62%

1 0.0

Person to medical community (healthcare providers and medical records)

11%

1 3%

1 .9

Person to vehicle O ther

11% 5%

8% 5%

1 .8 0.6


62

MOST LIKELY TO INFLUENCE Assuming this trend towards fully embracing the "internet of things" actually does happen.... Who will be most likely to influence people to fully embrace the "internet of things"?


Auto manufacturers E mployers Family members Friends Home builders/rehabbers /developers Product and s ervice providers R eal estate profess ionals The government The medical community O ther


Likelihood Score

6% 11% 5% 6% 5% 39% 4% 7% 1 0% 8%

% o f T rad e rs rs

3% 1 0% 4% 8% 7% 50% 2% 8% 6% 8%

Stre ng ng th

0.6 1 .4 0.5 0.8 0.5 7.0 0.3 1 .3 1 .4 1 .1

63

MOST LIKELY ETHNICITY AND INCOME Assuming this trend towards fully embracing the "internet of things" actually does happen.... Which ethnic group will be most likely to fully embrace the "internet of things"?


Likelihood % o f Trad e rs rs Score 11% 3% 1 0% 1 0% 62% 80% 7% 4% 9% 7%

Stre ng ng th 0.6 0.7 7.3 0.2 0.5

Assuming this trend towards fully embracing the "internet of things" actually does happen.... Who will be most likely to fully embrace the "interne "internett of things"?

Who will most likely participate participate (income)? Lower income (bottom 25%) Lower-middle income (26% to 50%) Upper-middle income (51 % to 75%) Upper income (76% to 1 00%)


Likelihood % o f T ra rade rs rs Score 1 7% 1 4% 1 3% 1 3% 52% 60% 1 7% 1 8%

Stre ng ngth 1 .0 0.7 4.5 1 .1

64

MOST LIKELY GEOGRAPHY AND TIMEFRAME Assuming this trend towards fully embracing the "internet of things" actually does happen.... In what region of the country will the full embrace of the "internet of things" most likely happen? happen?


Likelihood Score

% of Trade rs rs

Stre ng ngth

Midwes t

1 3%

6%

0.2

Northeas t

46%

54%

3.5

S outh

1 6%

1 2%

0.5

W es t

26%

33%

1 .7

Assuming this trend towards fully embracing the "internet of things" actually does happen.... When (how many years from now) will it be common for people to fully embrace the "internet of things"?

When will trend trend be common? common? 0 to 5 years 6 to 1 0 years 1 1 to 20 years 21 to 30 years 31 to 50 years 51 + years


Likelihood % o f Trade rs rs Score 52% 54% 1 9% 27% 1 0% 11% 7% 4% 5% 1% 7% 4%

Stre ng ng th 7.2 2.6 1 .1 0.4 0.0 0.5 65

Artificial Int Intelligence elligence Artificial intelligence means increasingly-effective versions of things like Roomba, Siri, Nest, music/ movie recommendations, automated customer service support bots, Google driverless cars, etc.


66

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE •

•

•

•

•

86% likelihood of occurrence was heavily driven by potential conveniences yet would likely result in fewer customer service jobs Family members, home appliance and auto were seen as most likely influencers Transportation, environment/ environment/climate climate control cont rol and customer service are most likely areas Caucasians seen as highest probability ethnic group to rely on Artificial Ar tificial Intelligence Intelligence Predicted to impact middle to upper income more than others

•

Strong likelihood will occur over next 20 years

•



67

C400 8+/80+ 9+02 -+>7402 /. )>9=4?4,4>0 4.=+0041+.,+)G

$# %

B. =-+ ?;=;9+L D400 8+/80+ 9+02 -+>7402 /. )>9=4?4,4>0 4.=+0041+.,+)G

Keywords - YES

04<+04-//6 Results Breakout

Commentary

"H +>52 &H 04?+

86%

Probable

Likelihood

L ow

% Probability

Ave ra ge

'H =+,-./0/12 KH >09+>62

"&% "&%

)B= @><+5 04?+ +>54+9 >.6 ?9++5 ;8 @/9+ =4@+ ?/9 =-+@ =/ 6/ /=-+9

High

0%

NotProbable

"#% "'%

100%

14%

>,=474=4+5F) )*+,-./0/12 45 6+7+0/84.1 7+92 :;4,<02) )4.,9+>54.102I+??+,=47+ 7+954/.5 /? =-4.15) )C+ D400 D>.= @/9+ @;.6>.+ =>5<5 6/.+ E2 @>,-4.+ =->. E2

Said "Yes"

% of Peopl People e Response Mix

Said "No"

86%

14%

-;@>. ->.65F)


Average Ave rage

"H 5=400 &H >4


Low

Yes

High

4.5

Low

No

High

0.5

&(% "!%

'H 04==0+ KH @>2

"'% "'%

)B= 45 =// +>902 =/ >,,+8= AB >5 > 74>E0+ ?/9@ /? ;5>1+ /9 ,/.7+.4+.,+)

'!!"

)J+/80+ D>.= =/ @><+ ;8 =-+49 /D. @4.65)

&!"

Segment Breakout How likel y each segment felt the outcome would be

%!"

)4? =-45 ->88+.5 4= D400 E+ 4. ?>9 >D>2 ?;=;9+)

$!"

)5=400 > 04==0+ +>902 ?/9 5/@+ /06+9 1+.+9>=4/.5 =/ >,,+8= AB)

#!" !"

( )* )* +, +, )


-+ ,) ,)

-. ,, ,, )/ )//.+ ,

0 )/ )/1

233 *) *)4

5 ., .,) /6 /6

68

MOST LIKELY REASON Assuming this trend of people relying heavily on "artificial intelligence" actually does happen.... Which of the following is the most likely reason reason why people will rely heavily on "artificial intelligence"?

Why will trend happen? To eliminate human error To ensure they get exactly what they need when they need it To lower stress To make life easier To save money To save time Other


Likelihood % of T rade rs Score 7% 9%

Stre ngth 0.8

6%

6%

0.5

5% 55% 7% 15% 5%

4% 59% 6% 17% 3%

0.3 10.0 0.6 2.3 0.3

69

MOST LIKELY RESULT Assuming this trend of people relying heavily on "artificial intelligence" actually does happen.... Which of these will be the most likely result of people heavily relying on "artificial intelligence"?

What will be result of trend happening? A decrease decrease in customer service service jobs jobs A frustration frustration with with outdat outdated ed Artificia Artificiall Intelligence (a.k.a. "gadget envy") An An increase increase in delib deliberate erately ly waiting waiting for new upgrades before purchasing new products and services An An increase increase in hardware hardware and software development development jobs Home appliance decisions will become based on how intelligent the products are Home-buying Home-buying and renting decisions will become based on what amount, quality and upgradability upgradability of artificial intelligence is included Homes becoming equipped to accommodate artificial intelligence Other MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC | © 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Likelihood % of T rade rs Score 22% 30%

Stre ngth 3.4

8%

11%

0.7

10%

8%

1.2

12%

15%

1.7

11%

9%

1.2

10%

9%

1.2

16%

14%

2.1

11%

11%

1.6 70

MOST LIKELY TYPE Assuming this trend of people relying heavily on "artificial intelligence" actually does happen.... What type of "artificial intelligence" intelligence" will be most common?

What will be most common type? Cleaning Companionship Customer service Environment/climate control Lawn c are Recommendation engines Transportation Other


Likelihood % of T rade rs Score 9% 11% 8% 6% 16% 21% 24% 31% 5% 3% 7% 8% 25% 21% 7% 7%

Stre ngth 1.1 0.8 2.6 4.3 0.2 1.2 4.3 1.0

71

MOST LIKELY TO INFLUENCE Assuming this trend of people relying heavily on "artificial intelligence" actually does happen.... Who will be most likely to influence the heavy reliance on "artificial intelligence"?

Who will most likely influence? Auto Auto industry industry Family members Friends Home appliance industry Lawn/outside care indus try Real estate/developer industry Other


Likelihood % of T rade rs Score 15% 17% 17% 27% 30% 8% 6% 22% 29% 6% 3% 8% 6% 14% 16%

Strength 1.7 4.2 0.5 3.1 0.1 0.5 1.7

72

MOST LIKELY ETHNICITY AND INCOME Assuming this trend of people relying heavily on "artificial intelligence" actually does happen.... Which ethnic group will be most likely to rely heavily on "artificial intelligence"?

Who will most likely participate (ethnic)? African African American Asian Asian Caucasian Hispanic Other

Likelihood % of T rade rs Score 7% 3% 10% 10% 10% 68% 82% 6% 2% 9% 6%

Strength 0.3 0.9 8.7 0.2 0.7

Assuming this trend of people relying heavily on "artificial intelligence" actually does happen.... Who will be most likely to rely heavily on "artificial intelligence"?

Who will most likely participate (income)? Lower income (bottom 25%) Lower-middle income (26% to 50%) Upper-middle income (51% to 75%) Upper inc ome (76% to 100%)


Likelihood % of T rade rs Score 17% 9% 14% 13% 42% 55% 27% 26%

Stre ngth 1.0 0.7 3.4 2.0

73

MOST LIKELY GEOGRAPHY AND TIMEFRAME Assuming this trend of people relying heavily on "artificial intelligence" actually does happen.... In what region of the country will a heavy reliance on "Artificial intelligence" be most likely to happen?


Likelihood Score

% of T ra raders

Stre ngth

Midwes t

12%

7%

0.3

Northeas t

48%

62%

4.0

South

17%

11%

0.9

W es t

23%

25%

1.7

Assuming this trend of people relying heavily on "artificial intelligence" actually does happen.... When (how many years from now) will it start to be common for people to rely heavily on "artificial intelligence"?

When will trend be common? 0 to 5 years 6 to 10 years 11 to 20 years 21 to 30 years 31 to 50 years 51+ years


Likelihood % of T raders Score 29% 37% 26% 34% 24% 20% 7% 3% 7% 5% 7% 3%

Stre ngth 3.8 3.2 2.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 74

Minimalist Lifestyle A minimalist lifestyle means keeping life simple by doing things such as renting instead of owning, sharing living spaces or cars, owning smaller/tiny/modular/ mobile homes, having fewer children or none at all, etc.


75

MINIMALIST LIFES LI FESTYLE TYLE •

•

•

•

•

•

•

82% likelihood of occurrence primarily caused by economic conditions The minimalist lifestyle will most likely result in increased housing options, reduced family sizes and more environmentally friendly living Couples w/o children and single adults will lead trend Caucasians seen as highest probability ethnic group to live a minimalist lifestyle 74% likely that middle to lower income rely on minimalist lifestyle 80% likely trend will occur over next 20 years Strong likelihood in all geographic regions except the Midwest


76

?/AA ;0+;A0 40 A/9/2: 6 C+80 )C/2/C6A/@5) A/E0@5
P$ &

M2 5.0 EB5B80O 1/AA ;0+;A0 40 A/9/2: 6 C+80 )C/2/C6A/@5) A/E0@5< A0G

Keywords - YES

A/F0A/.++3 Results Breakout

Commentary

"H ;8/-0 $H A/9/2:

82%

Probable

Likelihood

L ow

% Probability

Ave ra ge

Said "Yes"


'H A0@@ #H 0-+2+2<

""& "(&

)K/@/2: -+@5 +E A/9 /2: 1/AA E+8-0 ;0+;A0 5+1683@ 6 @/C;A08 A/E0@5)

High

0%

Not Proba Probable ble

$%& "'&

100%

18%

)*+ -.+/-0 1.02 /2 3045 6237+8 2+5 .69/2: 6 ./:. ;6) )I0+;A0 1/AA E+-B@ C+80 +2 .69/2: :++3 0L;08/02-0@ 0L;08/02-0@ /2@5063 +E ;+@@0@@/+2@)

Said "No"

74%

26%

)D0-6B@0 5.0< 1/AA E00A A/F0 /5 /@ 5.0 8/:.5 5./2: 5+ 3+>)


Average Ave rage

"H 1625 $H A/F0


Low

Yes

High

4.8

Low

No

High

1.3

&!"

How lik ely each each segment felt the outcome would be

'H 5./2: #H ;+@@0@@/+2@

""& !&

)M2 QC08/-6 /5 /@ C+@5 ;0+;A0@ C0256A/5< 5+ .690 5.0 4/::08 623 405508 623 C+80) )M5N@ 6 E63 5.65 6 E01 1/AA 63+;5O 4B5 ;0+;A0 680 @5/AA :02086AA< C6508/6A/@5/- 623 A/F0 ABLB8< 623 +12/2: 2/-0 5./2:@>) )I0+;A0 1625 5+ C+90 E+81683 623 /C;8+90 5.0/8 A/90@> J/2/C6A/@5 @00C@ 5+ @/:2/E< @56:265/+2>)

'!!"

Segment Breakout

$#& "%&

%!" $!"

)?0 680 @5/AA +2 5.0 8+63 5+ +908 -+2@BC;5/+2)

#!" !"

( )* )* +, +, )


-+ ,) ,)

-. ,, ,, )/ )// .+ ,

0 )/ )/1

233 *) *)4

5. ,) ,) /6 /6

77

MOST LIKELY REASON Assuming this trend towards living a more "minimalist" lifestyle actually does happen.... Which of the following is the most likely reason reason why people will be living a more "minimalist" lifestyle?

Why will trend happen? They will care about the future of the environment They will desire a simpler life than previous generations had They will want to lower the level of responsibility they have This will be all that they can afford This will enable them to spend more on experiences instead of possessions This will provide greater financial security This will provide more flexibility to move to different places O ther


Likelihood Score

% o f Trad e rs rs

Stre ng ng th

21 %

1 3%

3.8

5%

6%

0.8

9%

7%

1 .7

34%

44%

8.8

1 4%

1 9%

3.6

1 0%

1 4%

2.0

4%

4%

0.9

3%

1%

0.5

78

MOST LIKELY RESULT Assuming this trend towards living a more "minimalist" lifestyle actually does happen.... Which of these will be the most likely result of people living a more "minimalist" lifestyle? lifestyle?

What will be result of trend trend happening? An increase in environmentally-friendly housing options An increase in options for shared living spaces An increase in shared transportation options An increase in the amount of flexible housing options (mobile homes, modular homes, etc.) Changes in land use, zoning, and insurance regulations Less need for real estate agents and related services O ther


Likelihood Score

% o f Trad e rs rs

Stre ng ng th

1 9%

1 7%

3.4

1 3%

1 2%

1 .8

1 0%

8%

1 .3

32%

41 %

5.9

8%

8%

0.8

9%

6%

1 .2

9%

1 2%

1 .4

79

MOST LIKELY TYPE 6,,47(89 -1(, -0+8) -/*20), :(;(89 2 7/0+ <7(8(72:(,-< :(=+,->:+ 2?-42::> )/+, 12@@+8AAAA 512- ->@+ /= <7(8(72:(,- :(=+,->:+ < *(:: B+ 7/,- ?/77/8C


E nvironmentally-friendly living Having fewer children than parents did Having no children O wning a mobile home O wning a modular home O wning a tiny home Renting instead of owning a home/living space S haring a car S haring a home/living s pace O ther


Likelihood Score

% o f T rad e rs rs

Stre ng ng th

1 9% 21 % 8% 6% 5% 9%

1 5% 25% 6% 3% 5% 1 4%

3.2 4.0 1 .3 0.6 0.7 1 .8

1 4%

21 %

3.3

7% 1 0% 4%

7% 9% 2%

1 .2 1 .6 0.3

80

MOST LIKELY TO INFLUENCE Assuming this trend towards living a more "minimalist" lifestyle actually does happen.... Who will be most likely to influence the living of a "minimalist" lifestyle? lifestyle?

Who will most most likely influence influen ce? ? C hild(ren) C ouples with no children Parents S ingle adults O ther


Likelihood % o f Trad e rs rs Score 1 0% 6% 33% 47% 1 8% 1 4% 29% 32% 1 0% 5%

Stre ng ng th 0.7 5.9 2.6 4.6 0.9

81

MOST LIKELY ETHNICITY AND INCOME Assuming this trend towards living a more "minimalist" lifestyle actually does happen.... Which ethnic group will be most likely to live a "minimalist" lifestyle? lifestyle?


Likelihood % o f Trad e rs rs Score 1 0% 7% 7% 3% 63% 77% 1 2% 6% 8% 7%

Stre ng ng th 0.7 0.1 7.5 0.8 0.5

Assuming this trend towards living a more "minimalist" lifestyle actually does happen.... Who will be most likely to live a "minimalist" lifestyle? lifestyle?



Likelihood % o f T ra rade rs rs Score 26% 20% 49% 65% 1 8% 1 7% 8% 2%

Stre ng ngth 1 .8 4.5 1 .3 0.1

82

MOST LIKELY GEOGRAPHY AND TIMEFRAME Assuming this trend towards living a more "minimalist" lifestyle actually does happen.... In what region of the country will people living a "minimalist" lifestyle lifestyle most likely happen? happen?


Likelihood Score

% of Trade rs rs

Stre ng ngth

Midwes t

1 2%

11%

0.8

Northeas t

30%

35%

2.6

S outh

22%

1 5%

1 .5

W es t

35%

45%

3.5

Assuming this trend towards living a more "minimalist" lifestyle actually does happen.... When (how many years from now) will people living a "minimalist" lifestyle start to be common?



Likelihood % o f Trad e rs rs Score 42% 52% 23% 28% 1 4% 1 2% 8% 5% 7% 2% 7% 2%

Stre ng ng th 5.2 2.5 1 .2 0.3 0.2 0.2

83

Multi-generational Multi-gener ational Living Multi-generational living means that grandparents, parents, and children live together or in close proximity to one another.


84

MULTI-GENERATIONAL LIVING •

•

•

•

•

•

80% likelihood of occurrence driven by increased housing costs and depleted savings Will result in more multigenerational housing units and architects/city planners development or more affordable units Children and parents were seen as most likely influencers Multiple generations living under single roof was seen as most likely arrangement Hispanics seen as highest probability ethnic group to live in multi-generational setting 76% likelihood to impact middle to upper income more than others

•


•

Slightly strong probability of occurrence in Northeast


85

B211 A,5A1, 4+*32.*., .5>*+6 =<1.2C4,-,+*.25-*1 1232-4D

%J &

:- .8, F<.<+,K >211 A,5A1, 4+*32.*., .5>*+6 =<1.2C4,-,+*.25-*1 1232-4D

Keywords - YES

12I,128556 Results Breakout

Commentary

"E A+27, $E 1232-4

80%

Probable

Likelihood

L ow

% Probability

Ave ra ge

#E F*=21; 'E ,75-5-;

"$& !&

(;5<-4,+ A,5A1, 7*-G. *FF5+6 1232-4 5- .8,2+ 5>- *-6 516,+ A,5A1,

High

0%

NotProbable

$%& "#&

100%

20%

7*-G. *FF5+6 *//2/.,6 1232-4 85=,/( ()*+,-./ 1232-4 15-4,+ *-6 78216+,- 8*32-4 7511,4, 6,9.( (H*9; H55=,+/ >211 -,,6 .5 9, .*I,- 7*+, 5F 9; .8,2+ 78216+,- 2F .8,; 7*--5. *FF5+6 452-4 .5 * 85=,?( (@,/ 9,7**-./ .5 9, -,*+ ,*78 5.8,+ 2- 7*/, 8,1A 2/

Said "Yes"


Said "No"

77%

23%

-,,6,6(


Average Ave rage

"E F*=21; $E 123,


Low

Yes

High

4.2

Low

No

High

1.0

How likel y each segment felt the outcome would be

#E 2-6,A,-6,-7, 'E 5.8,+

"'& ""&

(L3,+; 4,-,+*.25- >*-./ .5 123 , 2-6,A,-6,-. 5F 5.8,+ 4,-,+*.25-/?( (),5A1, 65-G. 3*1<, F*=21; *-6 75==<-2.; -,*+1; */ =<78 */ .8,;

'!!"

Segment Breakout

"'& "'&

&!"

%!"

(A,5A1, =532-4 F5+ ,=A15;=,-. 5+ 5.8,+ +,*/5-/(

$!"

(:. 2/ 3,+; 8*+6 5- ;5< ,=5.25-*11; .5 123, >2.8 +,1*.23,/?(

#!" !"

( )* )* +, +, )


-+ ,) ,)

-. ,, ,, )/ )//.+ ,

0 )/ )/1

233 *) *)4

5 ., .,) /6 /6

86

MOST LIKELY REASON Assuming this trend t rend towards towards multi-generational living actually does happen.... Which of the following is the most likely reason multi-generational multi-generational living will happen? happen?


Increasing ncreas ing cost cos ts of education education (and higherlevels of student debt) will make it necessary Increasing healthcare costs will make itnecessary Increasing housing costs will make itnecessary In-home care/assisted living for the elderly/disabled will be too expensive It will provide greater financial security People will be taking on the role ofcaregiver for another family member People will be underemployed People will have insufficient savings People will value having stronger family bonds created by spending more time together This will allow people to follow their passions and pursue personal fulfillment O ther MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC | © 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Likelihood Score

% o f Trad e rs rs

Stre ng ng th

1 0%

8%

2.4

6%

5%

1 .0

25%

27%

5.7

7%

9%

1 .5

9%

11%

1 .7

9%

1 5%

2.2

8% 1 0%

8% 1 0%

1 .7 2.1

9%

8%

1 .5

7%

4%

1 .1

2%

3%

0.3 87

MOST LIKELY RESULT Assuming this trend t rend towards towards multi-generational living actually does happen.... Which of these will be the most likely result of people gravitating toward toward multi-generational living?

What will be result resu lt of tre tre nd happening?

Architects/city planners will develop affordable multi-generational options More multigenerational housing units with more flexible floor plans/living spaces will be created Rural areas will grow/become more urbanized There will be a migration to urban settings There will be a migration toward warmer, retirement-focused areas There will be many changes in regulations related to land use, zoning, and development O ther


Likelihood Score

% o f Trad e rs rs

Stre ng ng th

21 %

1 4%

3.7

24%

37%

5.6

9%

9%

1 .3

1 2%

1 2%

1 .8

8%

11%

1 .4

1 6%

8%

2.2

9%

1 2%

1 .3

88

MOST LIKELY TYPE 6,,47(89 -1(, -0+8) -/*20), 74:DE9+8+02D/82: :(;(89 2?-42::> )/+, 12@@+8AAAA 512- ->@+ /= 74:DE9+8+02D/82: :(;(89 200289+7+8- *(:: B+ 7/,- ?/77/8C

What will be most common type? All living together in a single family home Different generations living in separate units within the same building D ifferent ifferent generations generations living living separately s eparately within driving distance in the same town or city D ifferent ifferent generations generations living living separately s eparately within walking distance in the same neighborhood O ther


Likelihood % o f T rad e rs rs Score 48% 61 %

Stre ng ng th 1 0.0

1 8%

1 9%

3.3

1 6%

1 0%

1 .9

1 3%

1 5%

1 .7

5%

3%

0.2

89

MOST LIKELY TO INFLUENCE Assuming this trend t rend towards towards multi-generational living actually does happen.... Who will be most likely to influence multiple generations to live together in close proximity?

Who will most most likely influence influen ce? ? C hildren G randchildren G randparents Parents O ther


Likelihood % o f Trad e rs rs Score 36% 41 % 1 2% 7% 1 8% 20% 25% 29% 1 0% 6%

Stre ng ng th 4.9 0.7 2.3 2.8 0.4

90

MOST LIKELY ETHNICITY AND INCOME Assuming this trend t rend towards towards multi-generational living actually does happen.... Which ethnic group will be most likely to live in a multi-generational setting?


Likelihood % o f Trad e rs rs Score 1 3% 1 0% 1 3% 1 2% 24% 29% 42% 46% 9% 8%

Stre ng ng th 1 .1 1 .1 2.5 4.7 0.5

Assuming this trend t rend towards towards multi-generational living actually does happen.... Who will be most likely to live in a multi-generational setting? setting?



Likelihood % o f T ra rade rs rs Score 41 % 49% 36% 39% 1 3% 1 0% 11% 9%

Stre ng ngth 3.5 2.9 0.6 0.5

91

MOST LIKELY GEOGRAPHY AND TIMEFRAME Assuming this trend t rend towards towards multi-generational living actually does happen.... In what region of the country will multi-generational living be most likely to happen?


Likelihood Score


Stre ng ngth

Midwes t

21 %

1 7%

1 .0

Northeas t

31 %

36%

2.0

S outh

25%

31 %

1 .4

W es t

22%

21 %

1 .2

Assuming this trend t rend towards towards multi-generational living actually does happen.... When (how many years from now) will multi-generational living start to be common?



Likelihood % o f Trad e rs rs Score 40% 46% 1 9% 26% 1 8% 21 % 9% 6% 7% 2% 7% 3%

Stre ng ng th 4.9 1 .8 1 .9 0.4 0.1 0.1

92

Nontraditional Working Environment Nontraditional working environment means a job environment that is virtual, transient, or otherwise not in a traditional workplace location under a single, consistent employer.


93

NONTRADITIONAL WORKING ENVIRONMENT •

•

•

•

80% likelihood of occurrence was heavily driven by technology advances and result in reduced office space needs Home offices seen as most likely type of nontraditional working environment and most likely influenced by employees Caucasians seen as highest probability ethnic group Upper middle income predicted as most likely group to participate

•


•



94

D422 9+092+ 24@+27 5+ :01@4-E 4- ; -0-61;.4640-;2 :01@4-E +-?410-8+-6F

MN %

O- 6*+ />6>1+A :422 9+092+ 24@+27 5+ :01@4-E 4- ; -0-61;.4640-;2 :01@4-E +-?410-8+-6F

Keywords - YES

24@+24*00. Results Breakout

Commentary

"G :01@ $G 6+=*-020E7

80%

Probable

Likelihood

Lo w

% Probability

Ave ra ge

'G *08+ LG ;21+;.7

"#% !%

(I>+ 60 6+=*-020E4=;2 ;.?;-=+<(

High

0%

NotProbable

$$% "&%

100%

20%

()*+ -++. /01 /2+34542467( (801+ =0<6 +//+=64?+ /01 506* +89207++< ;-. +89207+1<( ()*4< 4< ; =0-?+-4+-6 :;7 60 :01@A ;-. 0-+ .0+< -06 -++.

Said "Yes"


Said "No"

87%

13%

61;-<9016;640- +?+17 .;7 60 .0 6*+ B05C(


Average Ave rage

"G :01@ $G <6422


Low

Yes

High

3.8

Low

No

High

0.6

How lik ely each segment felt the outcome would be

'G :;7 LG -++.

"'% "'%

(<6422 ; 206 0/ 6*4-E< -++. .0-+ 4- 6*+ 61;.4640-;2 :;7( (J+=;><+ *0: =0>2. ; .0=601 :01@ /108 *08+F K0: =;- ;

'!!"

Segment Breakout

"!% "'%

&!"

6+;=*+1 6+;=* 60 9>524= <=*002 <6>.+-6< /108 *08+C(

%!"

(H0A 5+=;><+ 600 /+: 0/ 6*+8 :422 5+ ;=6>;227 :01@4-EC(

$!"

(+89207+1 :;-6< 60 :;6=* 70> ;-. -++.< 70> 0- 6*+41 <46+(

#!" !"

( )* )* +, +, )


-+ ,) ,)

-. ,, ,, )/ )//.+ ,

0 )/ )/1

233 *) *)4

5 ., .,) /6 /6

95

MOST LIKELY REASON Assuming this trend of people working in a nontraditional working environment environment actually does happen.... Which of the following is the most likely reason why nontraditional nontraditional working environments will be more common?

Why will trend happen? A large percentage of the work required can be done from anywhere with a phone and a laptop Employees will demand freedom and flexibility that traditional business cannot provide Entrepreneurism will be more attractive than working for someone else New companies like UBER will pop up that require a large, flexible workforce People will create their own job opportunities Traditional companies will be cutting overhead costs O ther


Likelihood Score

% o f Trad e rs rs

Stre ng ng th

40%

48%

7.1

1 5%

1 2%

1 .9

7%

7%

0.8

9%

11%

1 .2

1 4%

1 0%

1 .7

1 0%

1 4%

1 .3

5%

4%

0.3

96

MOST LIKELY RESULT Assuming this trend of people working in a nontraditional working environment environment actually does happen.... Which of these will be the most likely result of people working in nontraditional working environments?

What will be result resu lt of tre tre nd happening?

Companies will hire more freelance workers/contractors Companies will reduce the size of their office spaces Home offices will become more common Shared office spaces and equipment will be available for short-term rental leases O ther


Likelihood Score

% o f T rad e rs rs

Stre ng ng th

20%

1 8%

2.6

35%

40%

5.8

26%

35%

4.0

11%

1 0%

0.9

8%

3%

0.4

97

MOST LIKELY TYPE Assuming this trend of people working in a nontraditional working environment environment actually does happen.... What type of nontraditional working environments will be most common?

What will be most os t comm common type? pe ? Home offices Mobile offices Shared office spaces O ther


Likelihood % o f T ra rade rs rs Score 63% 76% 1 9% 1 3% 11% 1 3% 7% 4%

Stre ng ngth 1 0.0 2.7 1 .4 0.3

98

MOST LIKELY TO INFLUENCE Assuming this trend of people working in a nontraditional working environment environment actually does happen.... Who will be most likely to influence people to be employed in nontraditional working environments?

Who will most most likely influence? influen ce? E mployees E mployers O ther


Likelihood % o f Trade rs rs Score 49% 55% 35% 39% 1 6% 8%

Stre ng ngth 6. 6.5 4.5 0.8

99

MOST LIKELY ETHNICITY AND INCOME Assuming this trend of people working in a nontraditional working environment environment actually does happen.... Which ethnic group will be most likely to be working in nontraditional working environments environments? ?


Likelihood % o f Trad e rs rs Score 1 0% 5% 1 0% 4% 57% 83% 1 3% 6% 1 0% 4%

Stre ng ng th 0.3 0.2 5.6 0.6 0.2

Assuming this trend of people working in a nontraditional working environment environment actually does happen.... Who will be most likely to be working in nontraditional working environments? environments?



Likelihood % o f T ra rade rs rs Score 20% 1 6% 22% 22% 46% 58% 1 2% 6%

Stre ng ngth 0.8 1 .0 3.2 0.2

100

MOST LIKELY GEOGRAPHY AND TIMEFRAME Assuming this trend of people working in a nontraditional working environment environment actually does happen.... In what region of the country will nontraditional working environments environments be most likely to happen?


Likelihood Score

% of Trade rs rs

Stre ng ngth

Midwes t

1 3%

11%

0.3

Northeas t

48%

61 %

3.6

S outh

1 7%

1 2%

0.6

W es t

22%

20%

1 .0

Assuming this trend of people working in a nontraditional working environment environment actually does happen.... When (how many years from now) will nontraditional working environments start to be common?



Likelihood % o f T rad e rs rs Score 42% 60% 21 % 27% 1 6% 1 0% 9% 4% 6% 1% 6% 1%

Stre ng ng th 5.0 2.3 1 .4 0.3 0.0 0.0 101

Physically Phy sically Part of Community Physically becoming part of a community means taking steps like joining and participating in clubs and groups, moving to live in more concentrated urban areas, etc.


102

PHYSICALLY PART OF COMMUNITY •

•

75% likelihood of occurrence because of desire to have human interaction with those of shared interests/values and also avoid avoid being alone as aging Expected to result in heavier interest in community features over individual home features during relocation decisions

•

Suburban areas are predicted to be the most sought

•

Friends are seen as the most likely influencers

•

Caucasians seen as highest probability ethnic group to seek

•

Predicted to impact middle to lower income more than others

•


•



103

C5.. -+,-.+ 90D+ 69+-6 9,?012 9,?012 -;36570..3 :+7,B58< -019 ,4 0 7,BB@8593E

#& $

=8 9;+ 4@9@1+O ?5.. -+,-.+ 90D+ 69+-6 9,?012 -;36570..3 :+7,B58< -019 ,4 0 7,BB@8593EPQ:L

Commentary

Keywords - YES

.5D+.5;,,2 Results Breakout

"F ?089 GF 7,BB@8593

75%

Probable

Likelihood

L ow

% Probability

Ave ra ge

High

0%

100%

25%

NotProbable

"#$ "&$

'F -019 NF .5D+

"%$ !$

)A+58< -;36570..3 -019 ,4 0 7,BB@8593 56 +66+8950. 9, 0 -+16,8I6 4++.58<6 ,4 6+.4J?,19; 082 ;0--58+66K) )*+,-.+ 0.1+023 4++. 2567,88+79+2 2567,88+79+2 :3 9+7;8,.,<3 6, = :+.5+>+ 9;+1+ ?5.. :+ 0 1+6@1<+87+ ,4 407+ 9, 407+ 589+10795,8) )A+70@6+ )A+70@6+ 9;+3 ?089 9, :+.,8< 9, 6,B+9;58
Said "Yes"


Said "No"

71%

29%

)*+,-.+ 01+ ?08958< 9, ;+.- 7,BB@8593 082 <+9 58>,.>+2 58 9;+B)


Average Ave rage

"F ?089 GF 95B+


Low

Yes

High

3.0

Low

No

High

0.8

&!"


'F -15>073 NF +8,@<;

"%$ ($

)*+,-.+ 65B-.3 2, 8,9 ;0>+ 9;+ 95B+ 9, R,58 <1,@-6) )*+,-.+ ?089 M 8++2 -15>073 6, 9;56 65B-.3 ?,89 589+1+69 +8,@<; -+,-.+)

'!!"

Segment Breakout

"!$ "'$

%!"

)H,, A@63)

$!"

)A+70@6+ )A+70@6+ 9+7;8,.,<3 ?5.. +80:.+ 9;+B 9, 077,B-.56; 9;58<6

#!"

?59;,@9 ;0>58< ;@B08 589+10795,8)

!"

( )* )* +, +, )


-+ ,) ,)

-. ,, ,, )/ )//.+ ,

0 )/ )/1

233 *) *)4

5 ., .,) /6 /6

104

MOST LIKELY REASON Assuming this trend of people taking steps toward physically becoming part of a community actually does happen.... Which of the following is the most likely reason why people will take steps toward physically becoming part of a community?


A desire for a sense of belonging A desire for access to convenient transport rans portation ation options A desire for diversity A desire for more access to activities A desire for the ability to "give back" through acts of service A desire to avoid being alone/feeling isolated as they get older A desire to meet new people A desire to physically interact with other people with shared values and interests O ther


Likelihood Score

% o f T rad e rs rs

Stre ng ng th

1 0%

1 6%

1 .6

5%

7%

0.5

5% 1 6%

5% 1 2%

0.5 2.7

6%

7%

0.8

23%

1 7%

3.2

4%

3%

0.5

25%

34%

4.8

6%

6%

0.6

105

MOST LIKELY RESULT Assuming this trend of people taking steps toward physically becoming part of a community actually does happen.... Which of these will be the most likely result of people taking steps toward physically becoming part of a community? What will be result of trend happening?

MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC

An increase in the number of physical meeting meeting places Decisions on where to live based more on the community than the physical home/living space Development of communal/sociallyfocused housing structures E mergence of new s ocial clubs Higher prices for housing in communitybased neighborhoods neighborhoods Higher prices for urban hous ing Increased demand for real estate in urban areas Increased membership and participation in hobby-based groups and clubs Increased membership and participation in philanthropic groups and clubs People renting ins tead of buying People utilizing social media platforms to learn about different communities that they could join Reurbanization (people moving from suburban to urban areas) R evitalization of downtown areas Suburban areas making changes to becoming more m ore like like urban areas ORIGHTS ther RESERVED | © 2015 ALL

Likelihood Score

% o f Trad er ers

Stre ng ng th

3%

3%

0.2

26%

35%

5.2

4%

5%

0.6

3%

2%

0.2

6%

5%

0.8

4%

2%

0.3

4%

4%

0.5

1 2%

8%

1 .8

2%

0%

0.0

1 0%

7%

1 .4

6%

6%

0.7

4%

4%

0.3

6%

7%

0.9

6%

7%

0.9

4%

4%

0.4

106

MOST LIKELY TYPE Assuming this trend of people taking steps toward physically becoming part of a community actually does happen.... What type of communities will become most common for people to physically physically become part of?


Hobby-based groups/clubs Neighborhoods with community centers Philanthropic groups/clubs S ocial groups /clubs S ports groups/clubs S uburban areas with thriving downtowns Urban cities O ther


Likelihood Score

7% 1 4% 4% 9% 1 0% 9% 34% 9% 8%

% o f T rad e rs rs

8% 1 9% 9% 3% 1 5% 7% 38% 11% 4%

Stre ng ng th

0.5 1 .8 .8 0.6 1 .3 0.9 5.1 0.9 0.6

107

MOST LIKELY TO INFLUENCE Assuming this trend of people taking steps toward physically becoming part of a community actually does happen.... Who will be most likely to influence people to start taking steps to become physically physically part of a community?


Family members Friends Local governments /municipalities R eal estate professionals S ocial/Philanthr ocial/Philanthropic/ opic/S S ports ports/Hobby based bas ed clubs O ther


Likelihood Score

% o f Trad e rs rs

Stre ng ng th

1 6% 34% 1 8% 8% 8%

21 % 39% 1 8% 8% 4%

1 .8 4.7 2.1 0.4

1 5%

1 5%

1 .5

1 0%

6%

0.5

108

MOST LIKELY ETHNICITY AND INCOME Assuming this trend of people taking steps toward physically becoming part of a community actually does happen.... Which ethnic group will be most likely to take steps toward physically becoming part of a community? Who will most likely participate Likelihood % o f Trad e rs rs Stre ng ng th (ethnic)? Score African American 11% 8% 0.6 As ian 7% 3% 0.1 C aucasian 59% 73% 6.8 Hispanic 1 5% 1 3% 1 .4 O ther 7% 5% 0.2 Assuming this trend of people taking steps toward physically becoming part of a community actually does happen.... Who will be most likely to take steps toward physically becoming part of a community?



Likelihood % o f T ra rade rs rs Score 22% 20% 39% 48% 28% 29% 1 2% 5%

Stre ng ngth 1 .2 2.9 1 .8 0.3

109

MOST LIKELY GEOGRAPHY AND TIMEFRAME Assuming this trend of people taking steps toward physically becoming part of a community actually does happen.... In what region of the country will it be most likely for people to take steps to physically physically become a part of a community?


Likelihood Score


Stre ng ngth

Midwes t

1 7%

1 2%

0.7

Northeas t

43%

52%

3.2

S outh

20%

1 7%

1 .1

W es t

21 %

21 %

1 .2

Assuming this trend of people taking steps toward physically becoming part of a community actually does happen.... When (how many years from now) will people start taking steps toward physically becoming part of a community?


Likelihood % o f Trad e rs rs Score 39% 56% 24% 27% 1 3% 11% 8% 3% 8% 2% 7% 3%

Stre ng ng th 4.6 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.1 110

Non-Traditional Life Choices Nontraditional life choices means things like not going to college, not buying a home, not buying a car, delaying marriage and children, etc., so that they might pursue their passions or an alternative path.


111

NON-TRADITIONAL LIFE CHOICES •

•

•

•

Only 56% likelihood that this will be a future trend Better lives for children and encouraging more freedom of choice were primary reasons why trend will occur Likely results include declining home ownership, increased online education with declining college/university enrollment and shortage of full-time skilled workers Reduced personal debt and non-traditional education paths are seen as most likely ways parents will encourage children

•

Social media is seen as the most likely influencer

•

Caucasians seen as highest probability ethnic group

•

Trend predicted to impact broadly across all income levels

•

57% likelihood will occur within next 10 years

•

Highest probability of occurrence in Northeast and West


112

B766 1-/16- 2,./8960 -8?/C.49- ,;-7. ?;76<.-8 ,/ >4@- 8/8,.4<7,7/846 675?;/7?-2D

K$ &

L8 ,;- 5C,C.-G =766 1-/16- 2,./8960 -8?/C.49- ,;-7. ?;76<.-8 ,/ >4@- 8/8,.4<7,7/846 675- ?;/7?-2D

Keywords - YES

67@-67;//< Results Breakout

Commentary

"E ?/66-9(E 9//
56%

Probable

Likelihood

L ow

% Probability

Said "Yes"

Response Mix

100%

44%

*+,-.-/,01-2 4.- 5466789 :-;78< =7,; ,;- 142249- /5 ,7>-* *+78?- ,;- ?C..-8, 9-8-.4,7/8 9-8-.4,7/8 5-66 2;/., /8 ,.4<7,7/8G ,;-0 =766 :-8?/C.49789 -8?/C.49789 ,;-7. ?;76<.-8 ,/ 8/, ,;78@ ,.4<7,7/846I*

Said "No"

45%

"'& #&

High

0%

% of People

'E ?;76<.-8 )E 1.7?-

*H7224,7254?,7/8 =7,; ,;- ?C..-8, 2/?7-,0*

Ave ra ge

NotProbable

"%& "'&

55%

*A;-0 =766 8/, :- 4:6- ,/ ;-61 , ;-7. ?;76<.-8 57848?74660* 57848?74660*


Average Ave rage

"E ?;76<.-8 (E =48,


Low

Yes

High

1.9

Low

No

High

2.0

&!"


'E ,.4<7,7/846 )E 2,766

")& ""&

*M-/16- ,-8< ,/ 9/ =7,; ,.4<7,7/846 675- ?;/7?-2I A;-0 =40 ,;-0 9.-= C1 72 =;4, ,;-0 =766 =48, 5/. ,;-7. ?;76<.-8I* *A.7-< 48< ,.C- ,.4<7,7/846 ?;/7?-2 =766 ?/8,78C- ,/ :- ,;- >/2, 24,7250789 ?;/7?- 5/. ,;- >4J/.7,0 /5 0/C89 1-/16-I* *1-/16- 4.- >/2,60 /.7-8,-< :0 :-67-52 48< =;4, ,;-0 @ 8/= 42 ?/>>/8G 2/ ,;-0 ,-8< ,/ ,.4<7,7/846 /1,7/82*

'!!"

Segment Breakout

(!& ()&

%!" $!"

*,;-0 =48, ,;-7. ?;76<.-8 ,/ > 4@- 9//< 675- <-?727/82*

#!" !"

( )* )* +, +, )


-+ ,) ,)

-. ,, ,, )/ )// .+ ,

0 )/ )/1

23 3* 3*)4

5. ,) ,) /6 /6

113

MOST LIKELY REASON Assuming this trend of people strongly encouraging their children to make nontraditional life choices actually does happen.... Which of the following is the most likely reason why people will strongly encourage their children to make nontraditional life choices? choices?


Being debt-free will be viewed as a necessity The economy will be unstable/down The return on the investment of a fouryear college degree will not pay out They do not want their children to make the same sacrifices they made They want their children to have a better life than they did They will want to encourage more freedom of thought and action Traditional values will continually evolve O ther


Likelihood Score

% o f T rad e rs rs

Stre ng ng th

1 5%

1 6%

2.7

6%

7%

0.6

9%

9%

1 .4

6%

5%

0.9

29%

33%

5.1

20%

1 8%

4.1

9% 7%

1 2% 4%

1 .5 0.7

114

MOST LIKELY RESULT Assuming this trend of people strongly encouraging their children to make nontraditional life choices actually does happen.... Which of these will be the most likely result of people encouraging their children to make nontraditional life choices? choices? What will be result of trend happening?

C ollege/university enrollment will decline Home ownership will decline Home sharing will increase O nline education educ ation accredit acc reditation/ ation/validation validation will be important O nly the the very wealt wea lthy hy will be able a ble to afford afford a traditional 4-year college education O nly the very wealthy will own homes People will have more m ore discret disc retionary ionary income The government will increase education subsidies The number of rental homes/living spaces will increase The rental services/agent industry will grow There will be a shortage of full-time skilled workers O ther MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC | © 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Likelihood Score

% of Trade rs rs

Stre ng ng th th

11% 1 3% 6%

1 3% 1 4% 7%

1 .6 2.4 0.8

1 2%

1 3%

2.0

9%

1 3%

1 .1

4%

5%

0.2

7%

6%

0.8

6%

4%

0.6

5%

4%

0.4

5%

4%

0.4

1 2%

1 5%

1 .7

9%

6%

1 .1 115

MOST LIKELY TYPE Assuming this trend of people strongly encouraging their children to make nontraditional life choices actually does happen.... What type of nontraditional nontraditional life choices will people most commonly encourage their children to make? What will be most common common type ?

Crowdfunding instead of purchasing traditional insurance C rowdfunding to cover big expens es Gaining life experiences as an alternative to a traditional education Having children out of wedlock Learning a trade (through a trade-school or an apprenticeship) Learning online ins tead of in a class room Living in a multi-generational setting (grandparents, parents, and children living together) Not having children Not purchas ing an automobile Not taking on debt R enting ins tead of owning R enting their home to tenants Sharing an automobile instead of owning one one Sharing the cost of a home with friends and/or tenants W orking orking as an independent contrac contracttor instead of as a full-time employee - Not getting married O ther MADDOCK DOUGLAS, INC | © 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Likelihood Score

% o f T ra rad er ers

Stre ng ng th

3%

3%

0.5

2%

1%

0.1

1 3%

1 2%

2.6

3%

4%

0.3

8%

8%

1 .2

1 0%

1 3%

1 .9

5%

1 0%

0.9

1 2% 4% 1 9% 4% 1%

9% 2% 27% 6% 1%

2.7 0.4 4.5 0.8 0.0

6%

5%

1 .0

2%

3%

0.1

4%

5%

0.6

3%

2%

0.2

116

MOST LIKELY TO INFLUENCE Assuming this trend of people strongly encouraging their children to make nontraditional life choices actually does happen.... Who will be most likely to influence people to encourage encourage their children c hildren to make nontraditional life choices?

Who will most most likely influence influen ce? ? C o-workers Friends G randparents Public figures S ocial media Teachers Traditional media O ther


Likelihood % o f T rad e rs rs Score 8% 3% 1 3% 20% 1 5% 1 5% 6% 3% 30% 44% 1 0% 7% 7% 5% 1 0% 11%

Stre ng ng th 0.5 1 .7 1 .7 0.2 4.6 0.7 0.3 0.8

117

MOST LIKELY ETHNICITY AND INCOME Assuming this trend of people strongly encouraging their children to make nontraditional life choices actually does happen.... Which ethnic group will be most likely to encourage encourage their children to make nontraditional life choices?


Likelihood % o f Trad e rs rs Score 1 5% 1 3% 11% 5% 52% 72% 1 2% 8% 11% 7%

Stre ng ng th 0.9 0.3 4.9 0.5 0.3

Assuming this trend of people strongly encouraging their children to make nontraditional life choices actually does happen.... Who will be most likely to encourage their children to make nontraditional life choices?



Likelihood % o f T ra rade rs rs Score 28% 26% 32% 48% 20% 20% 20% 11%

Stre ng ngth 1 .5 2.1 1 .1 1 .0

118

MOST LIKELY GEOGRAPHY AND TIMEFRAME Assuming this trend of people strongly encouraging their children to make nontraditional life choices actually does happen.... In what region of the country will it be most likely for people to encourage their children to make nontraditional life choices?


Likelihood Score

% of Trade rs rs

Stre ng ngth

Midwes t

1 8%

1 9%

0.8

Northeas t

41 %

50%

3.0

S outh

1 6%

1 3%

0.7

W es t

26%

27%

1 .5

Assuming this trend of people strongly encouraging their children to make nontraditional life choices actually does happen.... When (how many years from now) will it start to be common for people to encourage their children to make nontraditional life choices? choices?


Likelihood % o f Trade rs rs Score 24% 29% 33% 44% 1 9% 1 9% 8% 4% 7% 1% 9% 5%

Stre ng ngth 2.3 3.4 1 .5 0.2 0.0 0.3 119

Dwelling 2.0: Exploring Changing View of "Dwelling" and the Impact on the Real Estate Industry

Recommend Documents