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Play Analysis Methodology Dr. Alfred Kjemperud The Bridge Group AS
Dr. Alfred Kjemperud
Definitions • Petroleum syst ystem. – A group group of plays plays withi within n a given given geogra geographic phical al area having a common source rock.
• Play. – A geogr geograph aphical ically ly and and stratig stratigrap raphica hically lly delimited area where common geological factors exist in order that petroleum accumulation can occur.
• Prospect. – A poten potentia tiall petro petroleu leum m trap trap.. – With With a mapp mappab able le rese reserv rvoi oirr roc rock k vol volum ume. e. Dr. Alfred Kjemperud
Petroleum system Limit of mature and active Source
Play 1 (unconfirmed)
Play 2 (confirmed)
Prospect
Field/Discovery Reservoir/Seal distribution
Geographical extent of Petroleum System Source Rock Distribution
Dr. Alfred Kjemperud
Modified from R. Birtles, 2000
Level of Knowledge LOK
Basin Description
Methodology
Very High
The basin is very well explored and has a multitude of discoveries in all plays. Most plays are regarded as mature but some will be regarded regarded as emerging. A large proportion of the basin is covered by 3D seismic. The success rate is on a decreasing trend
Mature fields Material balance Decline analysis New fields and discoveries Quantitative Reservoir Simulations. Probabilistic volumetric calculations Play and Prospects Probabilistic prospect analysis Play analysis level A
High
The basin is well explored and has several discoveries. Most of the plays are confirmed, but some are still unconfirmed. Some 3D seismic surveys exist outside of the discoveries and the 2D grid is dense. The success rate is on an increasing trend
New fields and discoveries Probabilistic volumetric calculations Plays and Prospects Probabilistic prospect analysis Play analysis level B
Moderate Moderate
The basin is moderately explored. At least one p lay is confirmed, but most plays are unconfirmed. Only 2D seismic data exists outside of the discoveries
Plays and Prospects Probabilistic prospect analysis Play analysis level C
Low
Little exploration has taken place. No plays are confirmed. Only a few regional seismic lines or a very coarse grid of 2D seismic exists
Plays Play analysis level C
Very Low
None or very little exploration exploration has taken place in the basin. No or little seismic exists.
Delphi and Analogue methods
Dr. Alfred Kjemperud
Play Analysis Level Play analysis level
Description
A
The analysis is based on a very good understanding of the basin. Structure maps are available for the main source intervals and reservoir intervals. Quantitative Quantitative basin modeling modeling (3D or 2D or a grid grid of 1D well and pseudowell pseudowell analysis) analysis) makes makes up the basis for maturation profiles and hydrocarbon migration mi gration paths. The play area is known and can be calculated with high confidence. The estimation estimation of the average prospect prospect size and the total number of prospects are based based on data from the basin.
B
The analysis is based on a good to fair understanding of the basin. Simplified structure maps of the major major source rock and reservoir intervals are available Several 1D basin models make up the basis for maturation profiles. Migration pathways are estimated The estimation estimation of the average prospect prospect size and the total number of prospects are based based on data from the basin
C
The analysis is based on a poor understanding of the basin. Structure maps are not available. The areal distribution of source and reservoir are estimated based on key seismic lines and wells. Single well basin modeling make up the basis for maturation profiles. Migration pathways are estimated The estimation estimation of the average prospect prospect size and the total number of prospects are based based on data from analogue basin
Dr. Alfred Kjemperud
Play Families and Plays • Play Families – Identified Identified by by first first order order process processes es • Exte xtentio ntion nal tect tecto onis nism • Compr ompres essi sion onal al tect tecton onis ism m • Deposi Deposition tional al proc processe esses s • Ba Basin sin co comp mpact actio ion n
• Play – Unique closure closure generatin generating g process process Modifie Modified d from from Duff Duff and Hall Hall 1996 1996
Dr. Alfred Kjemperud
Compressional Thrust AN-1: AN-2: AN-3: AN-4:
Shallow long wavelength anticlines independent of faults or thrust plane Thrust fault dependant anticlines Deep-seated, steep buckle folds near detachment surface Inverted autochthon
E x t e n t i o n a l B l oc k FB-1: Reservoir in hanging wall block juxtapositioned to sealing rock in footwall FB-2: Pinch out inverted by block faulting FB-3: Erosional Erosional products products from crest crest of fault block FB-4: Drape above fault block creating 4-way closure FB-5: Truncated fault block
Dr. Alfred Kjemperud
Basement Drape BD-1: Four-way closure (anticline) draping basement high
Dr. Alfred Kjemperud
Mud diapir
MD-1: Diapir Diapir induced anticline. Trap independent of faulting MD-2: Diapir Diapir induced normal faults crucial for trapping trapping MD-3: MD-3: Closure created created by drag along along diapir wall MD-4: Pinch out inverted by mud flow MD-5: Gravity Gravity flow deposits induced by diapir movement
Dr. Alfred Kjemperud
Stratigraphic plays Subfamily: Shallow deposits (s (s) STs-1: Fluvial channel deposits STs-2: Deltaic deposits STs_3: Shelfal Shelfal deposits deposits (bars) (bars) Subfamily: Deep deposits (d (d) STd-1: Proxima Proximall turbidite turbidite pinch out out STd-2: STd-2: Basin floor turbid turbidite ite mound mound STd-3: STd-3: Distal turbidi turbidite te pinch out out
Dr. Alfred Kjemperud
Play Fairway • The The pla play y fai fairw rway ay is the the are area a wit withi hin n the the basin where the specific geological attributes necessary for the existence of a hydrocarbon accumulation exist. • The The exte extent nt of of the the play play fai fairw rway ay is is init initia iall lly y determined by the depositional or erosion erosional al limits limits of of the gross gross reser reservoir voir rock rock and then modified by other play elements
Dr. Alfred Kjemperud
Common Risk Segment Mapping Colour
Description
Green
The probability that the attribute is present and effective in the area is high (1.00.6, low risk)
Yellow
The probability that the attribute is present and effective in the area is moderate (0.6-0.4)
Red
The probability that the attribute is present and effective in the area is low (0.4-0.0, high risk) Dr. Alfred Kjemperud
CRS Risk QUANTITATIVE PROBABILITY RANGE
0.8-1.0
Description
Further data which strengthen the model prediction to “Play/prospect will probabl y be affirmed by drilling”
0.6-0.8
Sufficient data on which to base a model which predicts that play/prospect may possibly be affirmed by subsequent data acquisition, including drilling
0.4-0.6
Little or no available data on which to base a model. Play/prospect may be proved valid or invalid with equal likelihood.
0.2-0.4
Sufficient data on which to base a model which predicts that model may possibly be denied by subsequent subsequ ent data acquisition, including drilling
0.0-0.2
Qualitative risk assessment (CRS maps)
Further data which strengthen the model prediction to “Play/prospect will probably be denied by drilling” drilling ”
Dr. Alfred Kjemperud
Low risk (green)
Moderate risk (yellow)
High risk (red)
Common Risk Maps (CRS) Reservoir presence
Dr. Alfred Kjemperud
Effective reservoir
Grant et al. 1996
CRS maps Charge
Top Seal
Dr. Alfred Kjemperud
Grant et al. 1996
Composite Common Risk Segment Ma Map (CCRS)
Dr. Alfred Kjemperud
Grant et al. 1996
Pl a y F a i r w a y M a p
Dr. Alfred Kjemperud
Grant et al. 1996
Calculation of P& P&L nu number Area for for area-numbe area-numberr factor calculation calculation (high LOK) n = no.of mapped mapped P&L/area P&L/area
Green area (Prob.: 0.6-1.0) Max. no. P&L = Area * n * 1.0 Mean no. P&L = Area * n * 0.8 0.8 Min. No. P&L = Area * n * 0.6
Yellow area (Prob.: 0.4-0.6) Max. no. P&L = Area * n * 0.6 Mean no. P&L = Area * n * 0.5 0.5 Min. no. P&L = Area * n * 0.4
Prospect Lead Seismi Seismicc lines lines
Total no.of P&L No. in green area + No in yellow area
Dr. Alfred Kjemperud
Play Analysis in GeoX Number of prospects
Dr. Alfred Kjemperud
P r o s p e c t v ol u m e • The value of the largest known prospect or discovery in the play can be plotted at 0.1% 0.1% cummul cummulati ative ve prob probab abili ility ty • A reasonable economic minimum size can be plot plotte ted d at 95% 95% cumm cummul ulat ativ ive e prob probab abil ilit ity y
Dr. Alfred Kjemperud
Lognormal Probability Plot 100
To be be ent ente ered into GeoX. Area Area of clos closur ure e (dir (direc ectl tly) y) Reser Reservo voir ir thickn thickness ess = Rock Rock Volum Volume/A e/Area reaof of closur closure e (Can (Can be ente entere red d as 7 fra fract ctil iles es or as a predefi predefined ned statis statistic tical al distri distribut bution ion))
