Correct Score

CORRECT SCORE TRADING MANUAL

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Correct Score Trading Manual

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Disclaimer & Terms of Use This manual was created for educational purposes only. It cannot be treated as a success or income level guarantee. If you decide to use the approach described in this document, you are taking full responsibility for your actions. BookiesCanLose.com cannot guarantee that you will make profits from trading. The author of this publication shall in no event be held liable to any party for any direct, indirect, punitive, incidental or other consequential damages arising directly or indirectly for any use of this material which is provided “as is” without warranties.

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For most people, trading is a fun, recreational activity which they are able to enjoy without losing control. For some people however, trading / gambling can become a serious problem, both for themselves and for their family, friends and those concerned about them. Don’t ever think of trading as a way to make money, spend more that you can afford, or use trading to distract yourselves from everyday problems. If you think you may have a problem with gambling, many websites, like the ones below, offer advice and assistance. Gamble responsibly! http://www.gamcare.org.uk/

http://www.gambleaware.co.uk/



CONTENTS Welcome! ............................................................................................................................................................................. 5 Introduction To Betting Exchange ......................................................................................................................... 6

Football Markets .............................................................................................................................................................. 8

The Correct Score Market ........................................................................................................................................... 9 My Approach To Trading ......................................................................................................................................... 10 Selecting Matches To Trade ............................................................................................................................... 10

Selecting Target Scores ........................................................................................................................................ 11

Selecting Other Markets / Insurance............................................................................................................ 12

Removing Liability .................................................................................................................................................. 12 Securing Profit .......................................................................................................................................................... 13

Trading Late Goals ....................................................................................................................................................... 13

Staking ................................................................................................................................................................................ 14 Strategies .......................................................................................................................................................................... 15

Over 2.5 Match Goals And Both Teams Scoring ...................................................................................... 15

Where To Use? ...................................................................................................................................................... 15 Target Scores......................................................................................................................................................... 15 Possible Insurance ............................................................................................................................................. 15

Under 2.5 Match Goals Being Likely.............................................................................................................. 15


Strong Favourite 1................................................................................................................................................... 16


Strong Favourite 2................................................................................................................................................... 16


Strong Favourite 3 (Handicap) ........................................................................................................................ 16



Correct Score Trading Manual Win From Behind..................................................................................................................................................... 17


1-1 On Paper............................................................................................................................................................... 17


No Goals ........................................................................................................................................................................ 18


Thinking two goals ahead....................................................................................................................................... 18 Good luck! ......................................................................................................................................................................... 20



WELCOME! Thank you for becoming a member of BookiesCanLose.com!

Football trading is a lot of fun but you must always trade with discipline. There should always be a logical reasoning behind your trading decisions, otherwise it’s pure gambling and we want to avoid that. Remember: while it is possible to make great profits from a single match, it is not possible (and never will be) to secure green in every match.

Every member of bookiescanlose.com also receives access to trading chat room where we exchange trading ideas and decide on best in-play actions. Our new product, developed recently, is Football Statistics Database where over 20 European leagues are covered and the information available there can help you not only to set up your starting trading position but also when deciding on how to manage your trade in-play. You gained access to correct score trading ideas published directly on the site, you can comment and you can be sure that none of your questions will remain unanswered. Becoming a successful trader isn’t easy but it can be done with hard work and by following some key rules of trading. This manual was put together to help you avoid the very basic mistakes in your trading journey. Enjoy your premium access!



INTRODUCTION TO BETTING E XCHANGE Betfair is the world’ss largest Internet betting exchange. Their headquarters are located in West London, England and they claim to have over 4 million customers. To make things very clear - I am in no way related to them, so if you think I will receive money if you open an account with them, you are wrong. I use their services, so I’m referring to Betfair in this manual but you can use any other betting exchange.

What is so special about trading?

Betfair and other betting exchanges give you the opportunity to back or lay every selection and if you do both at different times while odds change in the right direction, you will make a profit as a result. I am pretty sure that you are familiar with a concept of back bets as they are no different than standard bets placed with any other bookmaker.

In this example I can back Arsenal to win at 2.46 with £10.. You can clearly see that I will lose my stake if Manchester City wins or th there’ss a draw. I can also win £14.60 in case of home win. Note – Betfair charge a commission fee on net winning on each market (not on a loser). The usual starting level for betting exchange commission is 5%. So if you win £10 on an event, you will pay £0.5,, so you overall net profit will be £9.5. 9.5. Don’t worry, this commission is more than compensated for by better betting odds.

To lay a bet however may be new to you and it is to back something not to happen. For example, to lay Manchester City to win their m match atch is to back them NOT to win. win You would therefore win your bet if they either lost or drew their match. Be careful when placing your lay bets bets.. Stake in this approach is not how much you can lose – it is how much you can win! As you can see from the belo below w example for every £10 you want to win, you have to risk £22! 22! Why? You are essentially offering a bet to another Copyright © 2016 bookiescanlose.com. All rights reserved.


person at 3.2 odds for £10. If you win, £10 is yours, if you lose, you need to pay him £32 £10 = £22.

With Betfair you can choose the price you want to take and above all how much you are prepared to risk. The shorter price you wish to lay, the less money you have to risk compared to your potential winnings. Where’s the profit?

As I have already mentioned, doing both types of bets at proper odds secures a profit. Let’s look at our example again. If I back Arsenal to win at 2.46 odds and they take a 1-0 lead, the odds for home win will drop immediately. If I’m able to lay them at for example 1.50 odds, I’m securing profit no matter what happens.

That’s called Trading.

Similarly, when Manchester scores and odds for home win go up, you can cut your overall loss without waiting for the final score. The odds always adjust in all markets according to the situation in a football match. They are dependent on goals being scored and of course the time passing in the game.

This basic concept may sound very easy to do but believe me it is quite a complex art – not an easy, risk free way to make guaranteed, large profits. Trading is not something that you can easily set up and leave – it requires constant monitoring.



FOOTBALL MARKETS Betting exchanges offer many different markets and the more popular league / match, the more markets you can bet on. I personally consider only the following when trading: -

Correct Score (main market that I use) Half Time / Full Time Match Odds Next Goal Over / Under X Goals Half Time First Half Goals 1.5

-

Both Teams to Score Correct Score 2 Home / Away Half Time Score Asian Handicap

I rarely use:

Before entering a market, always check the liquidity – amount of money matched in the market. There are huge gaps between back and lay odds on markets with low liquidity and that has a significant influence on whether your bet will be matched or not at reasonable odds. Here is one example:

In such situations, prices will not reflect the situation in a game accurately (to your disadvantage) and thus it is not recommended to place bets. The “Matched” amount should be at least £2000 before kick-off but the more liquidity, the easier it is to trade in and out.

Another important thing is to make sure that a market will go in-play (top left). Trading is all about in-play moves and there are games in less popular leagues that will not go inplay. All markets in such games will be suspended as soon as the game starts.



THE CORRECT SCORE M ARKET This is an example of Correct Score market on Betfair:

The obvious difference between this market and other markets in the number of possible outcomes. You can back any score from 0-0 up to 3-3 and Any Other Home Win which is any home win where that team scored 4 goals or more, Any Other Away Win which is any away win with 4 or more away goals and Any Other Draw which is 3-3, 4-4, 5-5 etc.

There are 19 outcomes to trade, so you can imagine that a combination of proper back and lay bets placed on this market may be profitable. The rules are pretty simple. In order to have profit on the market, there are has to be liability. Many people ask me what the total stake should be but the thing is that every trader has his own comfort levels. Ask yourself the question: how much are you prepared to risk in order to potentially get some green? My golden rule in trading is: protect your bank whenever possible. Take out the liability first, then look at securing potential profits.



MY APPROACH TO TRADING My standard trade has six stages: 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6)

Selecting matches to trade Selecting target scores Selecting other markets / Insurance Placing bets Removing liability Securing profit

Let’s go through each one.

SELECTING MATCHES TO TRADE People who are new to trading look to trade lots of games every day. They think that the more games they trade, the more profit they will secure. They can’t be more wrong but I understand where that approach is coming from. Their decisions are driven by adrenalin rush. There’s a match on TV, they are bored in the afternoon and they want to take the risk, trade a football game, have fun! Unfortunately, this way of thinking is nowhere near these important things in trading like patience or discipline.

How many time have I heard: “today’s football card is poor, let’s trade darts, horses, or some obscure leagues…”, “there’s really nothing to trade tonight but at 10 PM La Coruna is facing Betis – I will trade this match. I need to trade something, don’t I?” Instead of hitting a winner and then wiping out all profits because of trading a game that you shouldn’t really, I am suggesting an approach that will allow our bank to grow steadily – quality over quantity!

Without being able to predict the future we need to give it a try by using statistics. Every member of bookiescanlose.com has access to Football Statistics Database where 22 European leagues are covered. I will not list here all different statistics that we have. There is a video on YouTube that presents our Members Area along with FSD. I personally tend to look for matches where there are some clear trends (consistent performance) visible in recent games. For example, finding teams that both play well and score and concede plenty of goals is my preference as I like to trade matches where over 2.5 match goals and both teams to score is likely to happen.

Another thing to consider is odds offered. It happens from time to time that prices are either too big or too short – identifying these is called finding a value bet. If you can take Copyright © 2016 bookiescanlose.com. All rights reserved.


advantage from that, you are one step ahead. For example, isn’t Manchester United too short (1.50) to beat Swansea at home? I am also using soccerway.com to check 2 things:

a) injuries / suspensions – very important in determining winning chances of both teams

b) scoring minutes – these stats can give you a pretty good overview on when goals can be expected. Is there anything that “jumps out” at you?

You can clearly see from the example above that if you expect goals from Manchester United in the first half, it is very likely that they will score between 15th and 30th minute. Remember however not to follow statistics religiously. They are there to confirm your thoughts or to add information that you were not aware of but the golden rule that every trader should follow is: goals are not guaranteed! Even if every data point in our stats database suggests lots of goals, some matches will end 0-0! SELECTING TARGET SCORES

I usually select 3 to 5 target scores on the correct score market. If I’m expecting goals and both teams scoring then I will most likely back 3-1, 2-2, 1-3 and if they are high priced scores, I will add 2-3 and 3-2. If I’m not expecting a trade to go over 2.5 match goals, I will often back 2-0, 1-1 and 0-2. If there’s a strong home favourite, I will go with something like 2-0, 3-0, 3-1 and possibly 2-2. These approaches are described in details in Strategies section.



I use dutching calculator (available in our Members Area) that quickly calculates how the total stake should be split between target scores to have equal green on each of them. I know that some trades leave a little extra profit on scores that they think are more likely to land but it happened to me many times that I was expecting 2-1 and a game ended 1-2… SELECTING OTHER MARKETS / INSURANCE All markets that I tend to use when trading are listed in Football Markets section. The idea behind using other markets is that they usually act as insurance against correct score market. For example, if I’m building a trade around over 2.5 match goals and both teams scoring, the majority of my total stake will be placed on high target scores. I will always consider however “insuring” against the loss on that market by backing or laying some selections on other markets like for example Draw / Draw on HT/FT market. It is a quite good insurance if there are no goals and game ends in 0-0 or 1-1 (if 0-0 or 1-1 at HT).

Another example may be backing 0-2, 1-1 and 2-0 on the correct score market and cheaply laying under 3.5 match goals. Remember not to “overinsure” though! I often hear that traders build their position by backing 2-0, 2-1, 0-2 and 1-2 on the correct score market and under 1.5 match goals as “insurance” – this is not the approach that I would recommend. Overinsurance is a situation where a person has bought so much coverage that it exceeds the actual value of the risk. REMOVING LIABILITY As I have already mentioned protecting your bank is key in trading. Your first priority therefore should be to eliminate the liability, so that your worst possible result in a trade is scratch. There is a number of options to do that:

a) lay 0-0 and 0-1 / 1-0 – if for example a home team has a good record of scoring goals and you lay 0-0 and 0-1, then one goal for that team can reduce your overall liability. The odds to lay 0-0 / 0-1 may be quite high before the game but you can always consider laying these scores in-play (if the match remains 0-0) for a lower price, b) lay AOHW / AOAW – the odds for Any Other Home Win or Any Other Away Win are often quite low in matches where there’s a strong favorite. Laying that selection can be useful as it does not happen that often that a team scores 4 goals or more. Copyright © 2016 bookiescanlose.com. All rights reserved.


c) lay insurance scores early in the game – early goals can often help in clearing out your liability on insurance selections. If I back over 1.5 first half goals and first goal is scored in first 10 or 15 minutes of a match, I can clear my red on that market by laying over 1.5 first half goals cheaply, leaving slightly reduced profit if second goal is scored later d) lay target scores – this is ideal. Because highest green sits on target scores, laying them cheaply can not only wipe out the liability but also secure overall profit in the trade. If I have £20 profit on 1-2 and it’s 1-2 in 75th minute of the game and I have £5 liability on 1-3 and 2-2, I can easily lay 1-2 to get rid of my red.

As soon as 2nd half begins, your total liability should be at a level that you are able to accept in case no more goals are scored. SECURING PROFIT

This is our target for every trade, isn’t it? Unfortunately, not always possible to be done – for example in games going totally against your expectations where all you do is trying to make it a scratch. If however the current score is close to target scores, securing profit should be possible. Let’s say it’s 2-1 in 60th minute of the game and your target scores are 3-1 and 2-2. Should you lay both scores and end the trade or perhaps you should wait for a goal from either team? If you just wait for something to happen and do nothing, you are gambling, not trading. Every match is different of course but I would usually clear my red on 1-1 in such a scenario by backing it to make it a scratch trade if no more goals are scored. If you expect more than one goal in that game, you need to consider backing AOHW and or 3-2 / 2-3 – always think 2 goals ahead! The easiest way to secure a profit is of course to lay your target scores as soon as the odds drop to appropriate level but it is not necessary to hit a target score in order to make a profit. If you are in the proper position at the right time of the match, that will many times be enough. TRADING LATE GOALS Some time ago me and my friend decided to analyze all major European leagues in terms of goals scoring minutes. We were not surprised by the fact that last 15 minutes of football matches in the period when most goals are scored. Late goals can not only boost profits, they can also turn a losing trade at least into a scratch trade! The price to lay the current score in a football match drops lower and lower as full-time approaches. For example, if you late the current score at 1.20 odds in the last 5 minutes of the game, you add only £2 to your total liability on that score but at the same time you add £10 to all other scores. Copyright © 2016 bookiescanlose.com. All rights reserved.


If scoring minutes stats support late goals (like on the example above) or if there’s a match where evenly matched teams play and one of them is chasing an equalizer, I recommend laying the current score late in the game. If you are sitting on a good amount of green you may also want to reduce that slightly in order to add green cheaply to other scores in case a late goal is scored. STAKING The question that many traders ask is what the stakes should be. There is no one and easy answer to that. First of all, everyone has different comfort (risk) levels and where one trader can easily accept £50 loss, it would be too much for the other one. I tend to recommend number of units next to every selection, so if you read market A (2 units), market B (5 units) and market C (3 units) in my match previews, you have an idea how your total stake should be split but you should decide what your total stake should be. It can be £10, £15, £20 etc. depending on your personal comfort level. Important thing to remember when staking is to make the calculations based on where you want the profit to lie. I tend to put the majority of my stake on the correct score market with the same amount of green on every target score. I’m using other markets as insurance, so in general their purpose is to cut possible losses if target scores are not hit.

For example, if your total stake on the correct score market is £10 and you back high scores like 3-1, 2-2 and 1-3 and you decide to take a cover on over/under 1.5 match goals market where you lay over 1.5 match goals at 1.20 odds, you need only £2 to cover your CS market liability. Perhaps you want to go ahead with £4 and have £10 profit overall if there is less than 2 goals in the game – it’s your decision on how much risk you want to take and what you think has more chances of happening in a football match. Remember that it is likely that you will make moves in-play, so your initial liability of £12 may increase. Remember, the success of your strategy depends on correct staking!



STRATEGIES Many traders enter a trade without a plan and without a strategy. This is an unnecessary risk that you add and it is something that I will never recommend doing. The below list of strategies should be treated as general ideas on how to approach a trade. Please note that there is no one strategy that will work every time you use it! The reason for that is a strategy does not always take into account the specific nature of a match. You need to remember that a proper strategy sets your trading position in line with your expectations around what will happen in a football match but, equally important, it should take into account events in-play that turn against you. OVER 2.5 MATCH GOALS AND BOTH TEAMS SCORING WHERE TO USE? This is a strategy to use in matches that are likely to end around these scorelines (2-1, 12, 2-2, 3-1 and 1-3). Two teams should be evenly matched.

TARGET SCORES There are 2 options here. We can either back 3-1, 2-2 and 1-3 or 3-1, 2-2, 1-3, 2-3 and 32. It is likely that high odds will be offered for 2-3 and 3-2 so adding them should not reduce the profits significantly. POSSIBLE INSURANCE Lay over 1.5 match goals is one possibility. It will be a very cheap lay (~1.20) and can help if there is no goals. The other option is to back Draw/Draw on HT/FT market. It should work as a proper insurance in case of 0-0 and 0-0 HT and 1-1 FT. UNDER 2.5 MATCH GOALS BEING LIKELY WHERE TO USE? This is a strategy to use in matches where goals are expected but not more than 2-3. Two teams should be evenly matched. TARGET SCORES There are 2 options here depending on whether both teams to score is likely to land. We can either back 0-2, 1-1 and 2-0 or 1-1, 2-1 and 1-2. POSSIBLE INSURANCE Lay under 3.5 match (or 4.5 match) goals is one possibility depending on target scores selected. It will again be a very cheap lay and can help if there is a festival of goals. The



other option (and I think it would be my preference) is to back Over 1.5 First Half Goals. It will work great if your target score is hit too early in the game. Draw/Draw can also be considered here. STRONG FAVOURITE 1 WHERE TO USE? This is a strategy to use in matches where one team is a favourite (ideally around 1.451.50 to win), goals are expected but at the same time you expect the other team to play well. TARGET SCORES I would usually back the favourite team to win 3-0, 3-1 and possibly add 2-2 on the correct score market.

POSSIBLE INSURANCE Lay over 2.5 match goals + lay the favourite on Half Time market should work well as insurance in such a trade. STRONG FAVOURITE 2 WHERE TO USE? This is a strategy to use in matches where one team is a favourite (ideally around 1.451.50 to win) and many goals are expected. TARGET SCORES Back the favourite team to win 2-0 and 3-1 and add a back bet of over 3.5 match goals.

POSSIBLE INSURANCE In this trade you should definitely lay the favourite team to win on Match Odds market. STRONG FAVOURITE 3 (HANDICAP) WHERE TO USE? This is a strategy to use in matches where one team is a favourite (ideally around 1.451.50 to win) and many goals are expected.



TARGET SCORES Back the favourite team to win 2-0 and add a back bet of favourite team to win with -1.5 & -2.0 handicap. Please google asian handicap if you are not sure what these handicap selections mean. POSSIBLE INSURANCE Draw / Favourite to win on HT/FT market WIN FROM BEHIND WHERE TO USE? This is a strategy to use in matches where both teams are evenly matched and over 2.5 match goals is likely to land.

TARGET SCORES Again, we can either back 3-1, 2-2 and 1-3 or 3-1, 2-2, 1-3, 2-3 and 3-2 on the correct score market. We also back Team A/Team B and Team B/Team A on HT/FT market (or possibly Team A / Draw, Team B / Draw). Stakes shouldn’t be high as the odds will likely be over 30. Such an approach can really boost your profits if for example there’s 1-0 at HT and 1-2 FT. POSSIBLE INSURANCE Back Draw/Draw on HT/FT market. 1-1 ON PAPER WHERE TO USE? This is a strategy to use in matches where two average teams play and a game has 1-1 written all over it. TARGET SCORES Back 1-1 on the correct score market and Draw/Draw on HT/FT market. POSSIBLE INSURANCE Back over 2.5 match goals.



NO GOALS WHERE TO USE? This is a strategy to use in matches where Under 2.5 is traded lower than 1.70 and no goals are expected. TARGET SCORES Back 0-0 on the correct score market and The Draw on Half Time market. POSSIBLE INSURANCE Over 1.5 First Half Goals

NEXT GOAL MARKET I am always considering Next Goal market selections when trading, irrespective of strategy used. Let me give you just two examples because the rule is pretty much the same each time. There is a favourite team in a match and according to your strategy you backed 0-3 and 1-3. The underdog however takes a 1-0 lead. Your 0-3 target score is dead but 1-3 can still land. At that point of time you can back the underdog on Next Goal market. The odds will be pretty high as the market will be expecting the favourite to equalize, so you can take advantage of that ensure a nice cover if the game goes to 2-0. Similarly, in case of 1-3, 1-2 and 1-1 backed on the correct score market, you can back the home team on Next Goal market when it’s 1-1, if your liability is high on 2-1. THINKING

TWO GOALS AHEAD

Wherever you are in your trade, you should always think two goals ahead. It means that you should be prepared on a situation where 2 additional goals are scored. If it’s 0-1 at HT for example, you can back 0-3 and 1-2, 2-1 depending on which scores are likely to land. The main reason of doing that is to take advantage if one goal is scored and odds on these higher scores drop. It is a good idea to do that analysis at Half Time. Here is the full table with all the options:



HT Score 0-0 0-1 1-0 1-1 0-2 2-0 1-2 2-1 2-2

Results to be considered to be backed (depending on strategy) 0-2, 2-0, 1-1 0-3, 2-1, 1-2 3-0, 2-1, 1-2 1-3, 3-1, 2-2 AOAW, 1-3, 2-2 AOHW, 3-1, 2-2 AOAW, 3-2, 2-3 AOAW, 3-2, 2-3 AOAW, AOHW, 3-3

Our Trading Tool available in Members Area calculates profit / loss automatically 3 goals ahead!



GOOD LUCK ! There are many different ways to trade correct scores and most definitely new, profitable strategies can be discovered. I recommend starting with gaining trading experience and confidence, slowly building your bank rather than hoping to “get rich quick” and above all working to have that correct trading mentality. If you think that you can crack trading in a month or two and you will immediately start winning more money that you can count, you are living in a dream world! There will be times when your trades will not go in line with your expectations. It’s part of the game and impossible to avoid. Never, ever chase losses. Accept the loss and move on. Set out your rules and stick to them. If you feel frustrated or angry because of losing, take a break – do anything to get rid of that emotion. Always analyse your trading moves after a match, learn from mistakes, look for things you have missed. Get all the best you can from your experience.

Remember, if you are in a position where you are praying hard for a goal in 89th minute then you likely created too much liability in your trade. Good luck and stay green!

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Correct Score

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