A Financial Analysis of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd

Raheel Gandhi [email protected]

A FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF ALIBABA GROUP OL!ING L"!. FISCAL Y#AR $%1& BALANC# S##"' INCO(# S"A"#(#N" AN! CAS FLO) S"A"#(#N"

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Bac*gr+und ang,h+u (a c+-+unded Alibaba Gr+u/ +lding L0d in 1 in Cali+rnia 2hen he launched 0he 2eb3i0e alibaba.c+m. "+da4 i0 ha3 gr+2n 0+ bec+me +ne + 0he $% m+30 m+30 5i3i 5i3i0e 0ed d 2e 2eb3 b3i0 i0e3 e3 in 0he 0he 2+rl 2+rld. d. Alib Alibab aba a 3u// 3u//+r +r03 03 bu3i bu3ine ne3333-0+ 0+-b -bu3 u3in ine3 e33' 3' bu3ine33-0+-cu30+mer bu3ine33-0+-cu30+mer and cu30+mer-0+-cu30+mer cu30+mer-0+-cu30+mer 0ran3ac0i+n3 0hr+ugh 5ari+u3 2eb /+r0al3. In ac0' 6u30 02+ + i03 2eb /+r0al3 handled 1.1 0rilli+n 4uan 7819% billi+n: billi+n: in 3ale3 in 0he 4ear $%1$. "he ma6+ri04 + Alibaba;3 cu30+mer3 are ba3ed in China bu0 0he4 are n+2 e
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5alued a0 8$=1 billi+n and 0he IPO i03el rai3ed 8$9 billi+n ma*ing i0 0he large30 IPO launch in hi30+r4. An in0ere30ing 30+r4 +n h+2 0he c+-+under3 decided 0he name. In an in0er5ie2' >ac* (a 2a3 a3*ed h+2 he ch+3e 0ha0 name' 0+ 2hich he re/lied'

“One day I was in San Francisco in a cofee shop, and I was thinking Alibaba is a good name. And then a waitress came, and I said do you know about Alibaba? And she said yes. I said what do you know about Alibaba, and she said Open Sesame.! And I said yes, this is the name" #hen I went onto the street and $ound %& people and asked them, 'o you know Alilbaba!? (eople $rom India, people $rom )ermany, people $rom #okyo and *hina+ #hey all knew about Alibaba.

- Jack Ma

Mission - Alibaba 2an03 0+ bec+me 0he bigge30 +rce in 0he e-c+mmerce 3/ace.

"heir main c+m/e0i0+r3 are Ama,+n' #ba4' e0c. F+r 0he /ur/+3e + 0hi3 ?nancial anal43i3' 2e 2ill be c+m/aring 0he ?nancial d+cumen03 + Alibaba Gr+u/ +lding L0d 2i0h 0h+3e + Ama,+n Inc. Alibaba Balance Shee0  A33e03

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Alibaba Balance Shee0  Liabili0ie3 and #ui04

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Balance Shee0 Anal43i3 9


"he balance 3hee0 i3 a ?nancial d+cumen0 0ha0 i3 /re/ared b4 c+m/anie3 0+ reec0 i03 Liuidi04 and Financial eal0h a0 0he 0ime 0he balance 3hee0 2a3 /re/ared. I0 i3 di5ided

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30+c*h+lder3; eui04. "he 0+0al a33e03 + a c+m/an4 mu30 al2a43 eual 0he 3um + 0he 0+0al liabili0ie3 and eui0ie3. "hi3 i3 0he undamen0al acc+un0ing eua0i+n. Assets = Liabilities + Equity

Anal4,ing 0he balance 3hee0 can re/re3en0 5aluable in+rma0i+n ab+u0 0he c+m/an4 0+ /+0en0ial in5e30+r3 3uch a3 • "he c+m/an4;3 abili04 0+ 3ecure adeua0e re3+urce3 0+ ?nance and main0ain

eDcien0 +/era0i+n3' /r+/erl4 3u//+r0 mar*e0ing +/era0i+n3' • "heir curren0 in5en0+r4 and in5en0+r4 0urn+5er' 0he credi0 0he4 /r+5ide 0heir cu30+mer3' 0heir eDcienc4 in deb0 c+llec0i+n' • "he degree + 0heir 5er0ical in0egra0i+n' 2hich de/ic03 managemen0 eDcienc4 and 3u//l4 chain managemen0' • "heir c+m/e0i0i5e edge  2he0her 0he4 /r+5ide a be00er line + credi0' +r 0he4 •

are m+re li*el4 0+ /a4 di5idend3 bac* 0+ 0heir 30+c*h+lder3' e0c. (a0hema0ical +rmula3 and ra0i+3 0ha0 are 5er4 5aluable 0+ a33e33 0he c+m/an4;3 30andard3 + /er+rmance in c+n0e<0 0+ 0heir hi30+r4 a3 2ell a3 indu30r4 benchmar*3.

F+r 0he /ur/+3e + 0hi3 anal43i3 2e 2ill be c+m/aring 0he balance 3hee0 and *e4 ?nancial ra0i+3 + Alibaba Gr+u/ +lding L0d. 2i0h Ama,+n Inc. Ama,+n i3 i03 gl+bal c+m/e0i0+r and ri5al in 0he e-c+mmerce 3/ace.

E e4 P+in03 O In0ere30

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)hile 3canning 0hr+ugh Alibaba;3 balance 3hee0' a e2 0hing3 ca0ch 0he in0ere30 in30an0l4. •

Alibaba;3 Accounts Receivables 3h+0 u/ b4 alm+30 300% r+m 0he 4ear $%1= 0+ $%1&. "hi3 indica0e3 a 0remend+u3 increa3e in re5enue +n credi0 0+ i03 cu30+mer3. +2e5er i0 increa3e3 0he ri3* + bad deb03 i 0he4 ail 0+ c+llec0 0he3e recei5able3. "he el/ Cen0er /age +n Alibaba.c+m e
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A3 3een in 0he 0able ab+5e' 0he da43 3ale3 +u030anding +r Alibaba 3eem cri0ical 2hen c+m/ared 0+ Ama,+n;3 $= da43 +u030anding recei5able3' bu0 i0 all3 in3ide 0heir 1$% da4 /+lic4. !ue 0+ 3uch cu30+mer riendl4 credi0 0erm3' 0he Acc+un03 recei5able3 3a2 a 3har/ increa3e in 0he 4ear $%1&.

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Sh+r0-0erm in5e30men03 in curren0 a33e03 a3 2ell a3 0+0al in5e30men03 and ad5ance3 3har/l4 increa3ed la30 4ear. "hi3 i3 0he balance 3hee0;3 re/re3en0a0i+n + Alibaba;3 recen0 bu3ine33 30ra0eg4 + bu4ing /a0en03 rela0ed 0+ 3earch re3ul03 and da0a cen0er3. Figure 1 bel+2 3h+23 0he brea* u/ + all 0he /a0en03 b+ugh0 b4 Alibaba in 0he la30 4ear. I0 i3 clear 0ha0 0he4 are in5e30ing hea5il4 +n 3earch engine re3ul03 and big da0a 0+ im/r+5e 0heir bu3ine33.

#igure ./ $ra!ic Re!resentation o1 Alibaba2s atent buying activity

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L+ng-0erm in5e30men03 re/re3en0 0he 30ring + in5e30men03 and bu4+u03 made b4 0he c+m/an4 0+ learn m+re ab+u0 0he US mar*e0. F+r e
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5alua0i+n 0+ genera0e 0ru30 and g++d2ill. "hi3 ur0her e30abli3he3 0ha0 0he3e in5e30men03 are 30ra0egic alliance3 and n+0 6u30 re5enue 3+urce3.

Liuidi04 Ra0i+3 Liqui&ity

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Cash Flow To Debt  "hi3 ra0i+ i3 an indica0i+n + h+2 2ell 0he c+m/an4 i3 able 0+

c+5er i03 0+0al deb03 r+m 0he +/era0ing ca3h +2 genera0ed each 4ear. I higher number mean3 0he c+m/an4 ha3 be00er chance3 + mee0ing i03 ?nancial +bliga0i+n3 in 0he l+ng 0erm. Alibaba;3 Ca3h +2 0+ deb0 read3 %.=' 2hich i3 n+0 /ar0icularl4 high and indica0e3 0he4 2ill m+30 li*el4 n+0 be able 0+ mee0 0heir l+ng-0erm +bliga0i+n3 3im/l4 0hr+ugh 0he ca3h +2 genera0ed b4 0heir +/era0i+n3. "he4 2ill need 0+ 0a*e +n m+re deb0 +r i33ue m+re c+mm+n 30+c* 70hereb4 rai3ing eui04: 0+ mee0 0h+3e +bliga0i+n3. +2e5er in c+m/ari3+n 0+ Ama,+n;3 ra0i+' 0he4 are d+ing much be00er. Ama,+n genera0e3 a l+0 m+re re5enue bu0 ha3 5er4 high ?
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Working Capital  !ue 0+ 0he IPO launch Alibaba ha3 n+0 been reuired 0+

le5erage i03el b4 0a*ing +n m+re l+an3. Ama,+n' e5en 0h+ugh 0he4 ha5e 3igni?can0l4 higher curren0 a33e03' i3 a hea5il4 le5eraged c+m/an4. "he4 can 30ill /a4 +M 0heir curren0 liabili0ie3 bu0 i0 lea5e3 much le33 2+r*ing ca/i0al +r 0hem 0+ in5e30 in ne2 0echn+l+gie3 +r bu3ine33 +//+r0uni0ie3. Alibaba +n 0he +0her hand i3 in a much 30r+nger /+3i0i+n 2i0h alm+30 8&. billi+n d+llar3 in 2+r*ing ca/i0al' 2hen 4+u c+n3ider 0ha0 0heir bu3ine33 m+del d+e3 n+0 e5en reuire 3igni?can0 in5e30men03 in ?
0han Ama,+n;3 71.11: and 0hi3 0ie3 in 2i0h 2ha0 2a3 alread4 men0i+ned ab+u0 Ama,+n being a highl4 le5eraged c+m/an4. N+ne0hele33' 0he ra0i+ rei0era0e3 0ha0 b+0h c+m/anie3 are ca/able + mee0ing 0heir +bliga0i+n3 in 0he c+ming 4ear. Bu0 m+re in0ere30ingl4' Alibaba;3 uic* ra0i+ i3 iden0ical 0+ i03 curren0 ra0i+. "hi3 i3 becau3e Alibaba ha3 ,er+ in5en0+r4' 2hile Ama,+n;3 uic* ra0i+ 0a*e3 a /lunge due 0+ i0;3 high in5en0+r4. "hi3 ma4 l++* g++d a3 a ra0i+ bu0 0here are 0al*3 ab+u0 2he0her Alibaba can c+m/e0e 2i0h Ama,+n;3 cu30+mer deli5er4 3er5ice3 3uch a3 02+ da4 and 0he m+re recen0 3ame da4 deli5erie3. Alibaba +/era0e3 3+lel4 a3 a 5ir0ual 0rader + g++d3 and 0he manuac0urer 0hen 3hi/3 0he 3aid g++d3. "hi3 re3ul03 in l+ng deli5er4 0ime3. G+ing head 0+ head 2i0h Ama,+n in 0he Uni0ed S0a0e3 2ill reuire in5e30men0 in 2areh+u3e3 and in5en0+r4. "hi3 2ill reuire 3igni?can0 in5e30men0 in 2areh+u3e3' 3u//l4 chain' and in5en0+r4 bu0 a3 3een earlier' Alibaba ha3 0he 2+r*ing ca/i0al 78&.H billi+n: 0+ d+ i0.

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"he gr+33 margin /ercen0 +r Alibaba ha3 been gr+2ing each 4ear a3 0he4 are alm+30 c+m/le0el4 an +nline /re3ence and ha5e minimal c+30 + g++d3 3+ld. Ama,+n +n 0he +0her hand ha3 high direc0 c+303 a33+cia0ed 2i0h 2areh+u3ing and 3u//l4-chain main0enance and +/era0i+n c+303. "hi3 high gr+33 margin /ercen0 0ran3la0e3 0+ a high ne0 inc+me. )e can 3a4 0he4 ha5e a high ne0 inc+me becau3e l++*ing a0 0heir re0urn +n 3ale3 +r $%1& 7%.91:' 2e can 3ee 0ha0 m+re 0han hal + 0he re5enue 0he4 genera0ed 2a3 /r+?03. C+m/ared 0+ Ama,+n 0ha0 ha3 ab43mal re0urn +n 3ale3 7%.%9: meaning 0he4 are ma*ing li00le +r n+ m+ne4.

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"he Re0urn +n #ui04 2en0 d+2n dra30icall4 +r Alibaba r+m 0he 4ear $%1= 0+ $%1&. "hi3 i3 becau3e Alibaba 2a3 a le5eraged c+m/an4' and 30ill i3 a3 m+30 + 0heir ?nancing c+me3 r+m l+an3' bu0 a0er launching 0heir IPO in Se/0ember + $%1&' 0he4 rai3ed c+n3iderable am+un03 + eui04 cau3ing 0heir re0urn +n eui04 0+ dr+/ 3har/l4. +2e5er' e5en a0er 0he dr+/ in RO# 0he4 are 30ill be00er +M 0han Ama,+n 2h+3e b+00+m line' i.e. ne0 inc+me i3 n+0 en+ugh 0+ gi5e a g++d re0urn +n eui04. )i0h Alibaba ma*ing m+re 0han 9% /r+?03 7%.91 re0urn +n 3ale3: +n 0heir re5enue in $%1&' i0 i3 hardl4 3ur/ri3ing 0ha0 e5en a0er hea54 3h+r0 and l+ng 0erm in5e30men03' 0he4 ha5e 30ill managed 0+ increa3e 0heir Re0urn +n A33e03 r+m %.1 in $%1= 0+ %.$& in $%1&. Ama,+n +n 0he +0her hand cann+0 be e
Financial Le5erage #inancial Leverage *ebt to Equity )nterest

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Fr+m 0he 0able ab+5e' i0 i3 clear 0ha0 Alibaba in $%1= and Ama,+n in $1& are highl4 le5eraged c+m/anie3. "hi3 ma*e3 0hem ri3*4 +r in5e30+r3' a3 0he c+m/anie3 need 0+ genera0e en+ugh ca3h +2 0hr+ugh +/era0i+n3 0+ mee0 0heir +bliga0i+n3.

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+2e5er 0a*ing +n deb0 i3 n+0 al2a43 a bad 0hing becau3e ?nancing 0he bu3ine33 0hr+ugh deb0 mean3 0ha0 an4 re5enue earned 2ill direc0l4 im/r+5e 0he re0urn +n eui04 ra0i+. I 0he RO# i3 high en+ugh i0 ma4 be a 3ign 0ha0 0he c+m/an4 i3 read4 0+ /a4 di5idend3. "he big dr+/ in !eb0 0+ eui04 +r Alibaba r+m $%1= 0+ $%1& i3 due 0+ 0he ac0 0ha0 0he4 launched 0heir IPO +n 0he Ne2 Y+r* S0+c* #
Inc+me S0a0emen0 And a3h #l+2 0a0emen0 Anal43i3 "he inc+me 30a0emen0' al3+ *n+2n a3 0he /r+?0 and l+33 30a0emen0' de3cribe3 0he ?nancial /er+rmance + 0he c+m/an4 +5er 0he /eri+d +r 2hich i0 2a3 calcula0ed. "he undamen0al eua0i+n +r calcula0ing /r+?0 r+m 0he inc+me 30a0emen0 i3 Revenue 8 E9!ense = ro:t

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Fr+m 0he inc+me 30a0emen0 + Alibaba Gr+u/ +lding L0d' 2e can 3ee 0ha0 0he gr+33 /r+?0 margin /ercen0 7GP(P: ha3 increa3ed r+m ;;% in $%1$ 0+ <.% in $%1= 0+ <3% in $%1&. Ama,+n;3 GP(P al3+ increa3ed r+m 3% in $%1$ 0+ ;% in $%1= 0+ >% in $%1&. Alibaba and Ama,+n ha5e been c+m/e0ing in mar*e03 2i0h minimal +5erla/ and 0here+re ha5en;0 reall4 ea0en in0+ each +0her;3 mar*e0 3hare 4e0. "ha0 2ill change 2i0h Alibaba;3 /re3ence gr+2ing in 0he Uni0ed S0a0e3. "he general rea3+n +r 0he increa3e + b+0h 0heir gr+33 /r+?0 margin i3 0ha0 0he ec+mmerce indu30r4 i03el i3 e
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"hi3 3h+23 0ha0 Alibaba ha3 been bec+ming m+re eDcien0 +5er 0he 4ear3 2i0h regard3 0+ managing 0heir ?
E e4 P+in03 O In0ere30 In Ca3h Fl+2 "he ca3h +2 30a0emen0 di3cu33e3 0he 3+urce3 and u3e3 + und3 b4 0he c+m/an4 in 0he /eri+d +r 2hich i0 2a3 /re/ared. "+ be00er under30and 0+ 3+urce3 and u3e3 + 0he3e und3 0he ca3h +2 i3 br+*en u/ in0+ 0hree ca0eg+rie3' namel4 O/era0ing Ac0i5i0ie3'

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L++*ing a0 Alibaba;3 ca3h +2 30a0emen0 0here are 02+ area3 + in0ere30' +ne in 0he In5e30ing ac0i5i0ie3 and +ne in 0he ?nancing ac0i5i0ie3.

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Purcha3e + In5e30men03 in 0he In5e30ing ac0i5i0ie3 3h+23 a ma33i5e increa3e + alm+30 ?@?00% r+m $%1= 0+ $%1&. "hi3 cemen03 0he 5ie2 0ha0 Alibaba i3 in5e30ing in /a0en03 and 0ie-u/3 2i0h +0her e-c+mmerce c+m/anie3 0+ increa3e 0heir bu3ine33. "he 0+0al ca3h +2 r+m In5e30ing Ac0i5i0ie3 changed r+m a

/+3i0i5e 8H milli+n in $%1= 0+ 789.= billi+n: in $%1&. • "he 3ec+nd /+in0 + in0ere30 i3 I33uance and Reduc0i+n + !eb0 line i0em3 in 0he Financing Ac0i5i0ie3 3ec0i+n + 0he ca3h +2 30a0emen0. Alibaba 0++* +n 8=. billi+n in l+ng-0erm deb0 in $%1= and 0hen a ur0her 8&. billi+n in $%1&. +2e5er i0 al3+ /aid bac* 8& billi+n in $%1&. "hi3 c+uld be becau3e 0he4 g+0 a 5er4 a5+rable in0ere30 ra0e in $%1& due 0+ 0heir a//ealing in0ere30 c+5erage di3cu33ed earlier. "he4 0++* +n deb0 2i0h high in0ere30 ra0e3 in $%1=' genera0ed 3ub30an0ial re5enue r+m i0' im/r+5ed 0heir in0ere30 c+5erage

19


and recei5ed an+0her l+an +r 8&. billi+n d+llar3 a0 a l+2er in0ere30 ra0e enabling 0hem 0+ /a4 +M 0he /re5i+u3 4ear;3 l+an 2i0h a higher in0ere30 ra0e 3a5ing 0hem u0ure in0ere30 e
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Summar4 Alibaba i3 a ne2 en0i04 in 0he US mar*e0 bu0 i3 a 2ell-+iled re5enue machine. I0 ha3 a 5er4 high gr+33 /r+?0 margin c+m/ared 2i0h 0he re30 + 0he indu30r4' i0 i3 en6+4ing eDciencie3 + 3cale. "he4 ha5e a5+rable re0urn +n a33e03 and re0urn +n 3ale3 ra0i+3. "heir re0urn +n eui04 +nl4 2en0 d+2n due 0+ 0heir ini0ial /ublic +Mering. Alibaba ha3 been +cu3ed +n a 5er4 diMeren0 bu3ine33 m+del 0han m+30 + i03 c+m/e0i0+r3. "he4 /reer gi5ing 0heir cu30+mer3 direc0 acce33 0+ 0he l+2 c+30 manuac0urer3 in China. "hi3 gi5e3 0hem a c+m/e0i0i5e edge bu0 0he4 cann+0 deli5er4 3er5ice3 li*e 0he +ne3 /r+5ided b4 Ama,+n' h+2e5er 0he4 c+un0ered 0hi3 b4 acili0a0ing 1$%-da4 credi0 0erm3 0+ 0heir cu30+mer3. "heir 2+r*ing ca/i0al i3 3igni?can0 en+ugh 0+ all+2 0hem 0+ 0a*e ad5an0age + ne2 0echn+l+gie3 and bu3ine33 +//+r0uni0ie3. Alibaba i3 al3+ 3ecuring i03 u0ure a3 0he4 *n+2 0ha0 0he 3ucce33 + 0heir e-c+mmerce bu3ine33 2ill de/end +n be00er 3earch re3ul03 and big da0a managemen0 and are 0here+re +n a bu4ing 3/ree 0+ 3ecure rela0ed /a0en03 and bu3ine33 0ha0 can hel/ 0hem 2i0h i0. C+n3idering all + 0hi3 in+rma0i+n Alibaba Gr+u/ +lding L0d 3eem3 0+ be /rimed 0+ churn +u0 grea0er re5enue in 0he c+ming 4ear3' 2hich 2ill again im/r+5e 0heir re0urn +n eui04. I 2+uld 30r+ngl4 rec+mmend in5e30ing in 0hi3 c+m/an4 righ0 n+2 and 2+uld d+ 3+ m43el. Reerence3 h00/222.2+rdlab.c+mbl+g$%%H1%2here-did-alibaba-0he-brand-name-c+me-r+m h00/222.236.c+mar0icle3alibaba-bu43-30a*e-in-u-3-e-c+mmerce-3i0e-,ulil4-1&=11H1 h00/222.bl++mberg.c+mne235ide+3bc1=a1e-cae-&$%H-bH-de$&$$a9 h00/222.indu30r42ee*.c+mcu30+mer-rela0i+n3hi/3alibaba3-3u//l4-chain-read4-0a*e-ama,+n h00/222.alibaba.c+mhel/3ae043ecuri04/r+duc03credi02ha0.h0ml h00/u+0e3.236.c+mBABA?nancial3annualbalance-3hee0 h00/u+0e3.236.c+mBABA?nancial3annualinc+me-30a0emen0 h00/u+0e3.236.c+mBABA?nancial3annualca3h-+2 h00/u+0e3.236.c+mA(KN?nancial3annualbalance-3hee0 h00/u+0e3.236.c+mA(KN?nancial3annualinc+me-30a0emen0

1H

Raheel Gandhi [email protected] h00/u+0e3.236.c+mA(KN?nancial3annualca3h-+2

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Alibaba Inc+me S0a0emen0

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Alibaba Ca3h Fl+2 S0a0emen0  O/era0ing And In5e30ing Ac0i5i0ie3

Alibaba Ca3h Fl+2 S0a0emen0  Financing Ac0i5i0ie3

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A Financial Analysis of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd

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