indian Institute Of Architects Part-2 Examination Question PapersFull description
Dec 2011 Stein
Dec 2011 Stein
Dec 2011 SteinFull description
THIS IS THE QUESTION PAPER FOR ME6603 NOV-DEC 2018 QUESTION PAPERFull description
Descrição completa
Full description
Full description
Dec 2011 SteinDescription complète
CCNAquestions Dec 2017
avion, hobby, colectie
Deped
Descripción completa
revista de aerografia(ingles)Descrição completa
karyaFull description
REVISTA DE AVIACAO EXPERIMENTAL
revista de aerografia(ingles)Full description
4
Decision Analysis Analysis
MULTIPLE CHOICE
1.
The opti The option onss fro from m whi which ch a deci decisi sion on maker maker choos chooses es a cours coursee of acti action on are are a. called the decision alternatives. b. under the control of the decision maker maker.. c. not th the same as the stat atees of natur ure. e. d. All of the alternatives are tr true. ue. ANSWER d T!"#$ Structurin% the decision problem &.
States of nature a. can describe uncontrollable natural events such as floods or free'in% temperatures. b. can be selected selected b( the decision decision maker. maker. c. canno annott be be en enum umeerated ated b( the dec decision maker ker. d. All of the alternatives are tr true. ue. ANSWER a T!"#$ Structurin% the decision problem ).
A pa(off a. is alwa(s measured in in profit. b. is alwa(s alwa(s measured in in cost. c. e*ists for each pair of decision alternative and state of nature. d. e*ists for ea each state of of nature. ANSWER c T!"#$ "a(off tables 4.
+akin% a %ood d deecision a. re,u re,uir ires es prob probab abiilities for for al all stat states es of natu nature re.. b. re,uires a clear understandin% of decision alternatives- states of nature 原始状态and pa(offs. c. impli plies that that a desi desira rab ble outc outcom omee wi will occu occurr. d. All of the alternatives are tr true. ue. ANSWER b T!"#$ ecision makin% without probabilities /.
A decision tree a. presen presents ts all all decis decisio ion n alte alterna rnati tives ves firs firstt and and foll follows ows them them wit with h all all states states of natu nature. re. b. presents all states of nature first and and follows follows them with with all decision decision alternatives. alternatives. c. alte altern rnat ates es the the dec decis isio ion n alte altern rnat ativ ives es and and stat states es of natu nature re.. d. arran%es decision alternatives and states of nature in their natural chronolo%ical order. ANSWER d T!"#$ ecision trees
1
2
Chapter 4
Decision Analysis
0.
Which of the methods for decision makin% without probabilities best protects the decision maker from undesirable results a. the optimistic approach b. the conservative approach c. minimum re%ret d. minima* re%ret ANSWER b T!"#$ $onservative approach 2.
Sensitivit( anal(sis considers a. how sensitive the decision maker is to risk. b. chan%es in the number of states of nature. c. chan%es in the values of the pa(offs. d. chan%es in the available alternatives. ANSWER c T!"#$ Sensitivit( anal(sis 3.
To find the ES#a. use the E"# to calculate sample information probabilities. b. use indicator probabilities to calculate prior probabilities. c. use prior and sample information probabilities to calculate revised probabilities. d. use sample information to revise the sample information probabilities. ANSWER c T!"#$ E*pected value of sample information 5.
#f "6hi%h7 8 .)- "6low7 8 .2- "6favorable 9 hi%h7 8 .5- and "6unfavorable 9 low7 8 .0- then "6favorable7 8 a. .1: b. .&2 c. .): d. .// ANSWER d T!"#$ $onditional probabilit( 1:.
The efficienc( of sample information is a. ES#;61::<7 b. ES#=E"#;61::<7 c. EwoS#=Ewo"#;61::<7 d. EwS#=EwoS#;61::<7 ANSWER b T!"#$ Efficienc( of sample information 11.
ecision tree probabilities refer to a. the probabilit( of findin% the optimal strate%( b. the probabilit( of the decision bein% made c. the probabilit( of overlooked choices d. the probabilit( of an uncertain event occurrin% ANSWER d
Chapter 4
Decision Analysis
T!"#$
3
ecision tree
1&.
>or a ma*imi'ation problem- the conservative approach is often referred to as the a. minima* approach b. ma*imin approach c. ma*ima* approach d. minimin approach ANSWER b T!"#$ ecision makin% without probabilities 1).
>or a minimi'ation problem- the optimistic approach is often referred to as the a. minima* approach b. ma*imin approach c. ma*ima* approach d. minimin approach ANSWER d T!"#$ ecision makin% without probabilities 14.
>or a ma*imi'ation problem- the optimistic approach is often referred to as the a. minima* approach b. ma*imin approach c. ma*ima* approach d. minimin approach ANSWER c T!"#$ ecision makin% without probabilities 1/.
>or a minimi'ation problem- the conservative approach is often referred to as the a. minima* approach b. ma*imin approach c. ma*ima* approach d. minimin approach ANSWER a T!"#$ ecision makin% without probabilities
TRUE/FALSE
1. Sample information with an efficienc( ratin% of 1::< is perfect information. ANSWER True T!"#$ Efficienc( of sample information &. States of nature should be defined so that one and onl( one will actuall( occur. ANSWER True T!"#$ Structurin% the decision process ).
ecision alternatives are structured so that several could occur simultaneousl(.
Chapter 4
4
ANSWER T!"#$
Decision Analysis
>alse Structurin% the decision problem
4. S,uare nodes in a decision tree indicate that a decision must be made. ANSWER True T!"#$ ecision trees /.
$ircular nodes in a decision tree indicate that it would be incorrect to choose a path from the node. ANSWER True T!"#$ ecision trees 0.
Risk anal(sis helps the decision maker reco%ni'e the difference between the e*pected value of a decision alternative and the pa(off that ma( actuall( occur. ANSWER True T!"#$ Risk anal(sis 2. The e*pected value of an alternative can never be ne%ative. ANSWER >alse T!"#$ ecision makin% with probabilities 3.
E*pected value is the sum of the wei%hted pa(off possibilities at a circular node in a decision tree. ANSWER True T!"#$ ecision makin% with probabilities 5. E"# is alwa(s %reater than or e,ual to ES#. ANSWER True T!"#$ E*pected value of sample information 1:.
After all probabilities and pa(offs are placed on a decision tree- the decision maker calculates e*pected values at state of nature nodes and makes selections at decision nodes. ANSWER True T!"#$ evelopin% a decision strate%( 11.
A decision strate%( is a se,uence of decisions and chance outcomes- where the decisions chosen depend on the (et to be determined outcomes of chance events. ANSWER True T!"#$ ecision strate%( 1&. E"# e,uals the e*pected re%ret associated with the minima* decision. ANSWER True T!"#$ +inima* re%ret approach 1).
The e*pected value approach is more appropriate for a one?time decision than a repetitive decision. ANSWER >alse T!"#$ ecision makin% with probabilities
Chapter 4
Decision Analysis
5
14.
+a*imi'in% the e*pected pa(off and minimi'in% the e*pected opportunit( loss result in the same recommended decision. ANSWER True T!"#$ +inima* re%ret approach 1/.
The e*pected value of sample information can never be less than the e*pected value of perfect information. ANSWER >alse T!"#$ E*pected value of sample information
SHORT ANSWER
1.
E*plain wh( the decision maker mi%ht feel uncomfortable with the e*pected value approach- and decide to use a non?probabilistic approach even when probabilities are available. T!"#$ ecision makin% with probabilities &.
Wh( perform sensitivit( anal(sis !f what use is sensitivit( anal(sis where %ood probabilit( estimates are difficult to obtain T!"#$ Sensitivit( anal(sis ). @ow can a %ood decision maker improveB luck T!"#$ #ntroduction 4. Cse a dia%ram to compare Ew"#- Ewo"#- E"#- EwS#- EwoS#- and ES#. T!"#$ E*pected value of sample information. /.
Show how (ou would desi%n a spreadsheet to calculate revised probabilities for two states of nature and two indicators. T!"#$ ecision anal(sis and spreadsheets
PROLE!S
1.
Dim has been emplo(ed at old Fe( Realt( at a salar( of G&-::: per month durin% the past (ear. Hecause Dim is considered to be a top salesman- the mana%er of old Fe( is offerin% him one of three salar( plans for the ne*t (ear 617 a &/< raise to G&-/:: per monthI 6&7 a base salar( of G1-::: plus G0:: per house soldI or- 6)7 a strai%ht commission of G1-::: per house sold. !ver the past (ear- Dim has sold up to 0 homes in a month.
Chapter 4
6
a. b. c.
T!"#$ &.
$ompute the monthl( salar( pa(off table for Dim. >or this pa(off table find DimJs optimal decision usin% 617 the conservative approach- 6&7 minima* re%ret approach. Suppose that durin% the past (ear the followin% is DimJs distribution of home sales. #f one assumes that this a t(pical distribution for DimJs monthl( sales- which salar( plan should Dim select @ome Sales Number of +onths : 1 1 & & 1 ) & 4 1 / ) 0 & ecision makin% with and without probabilities
East West istributin% is in the process of tr(in% to determine where the( should schedule ne*t (earJs production of a popular line of kitchen utensils that the( distribute. +anufacturers in four different countries have submitted bids to East West. @owever- a pendin% trade bill in $on%ress will %reatl( affect the cost to East West due to proposed tariffs- favorable tradin% status- etc. After careful anal(sis- East West has determined the followin% cost breakdown for the four manufacturers 6in G1-:::Js7 based on whether or not the trade bill passes
$ountr( A $ountr( H $ountr( $ $ountr( a. b. T!"#$ ).
Decision Analysis
Hill "asses &0:
Hill >ails &1:
)&:
10:
&4:
&4:
&2/
&1:
#f East West estimates that there is a 4:< chance of the bill passin%- which countr( should the( choose for manufacturin% !ver what ran%e of values for the Kbill passin%K will the solution in part 6a7 remain optimal ecision makin% with probabilities
Transrail is biddin% on a proLect that it fi%ures will cost G4::-::: to perform. Csin% a &/< markup- it will char%e G/::-:::- nettin% a profit of G1::-:::. @owever- it has been learned that another compan(- Rail >rei%ht- is also considerin% biddin% on the proLect. #f Rail >rei%ht does submit a bid- it fi%ures to be a bid of about G42:-:::. Transrail reall( wants this proLect and is considerin% a bid with onl( a 1/< markup to G40:-::: to ensure winnin% re%ardless of whether or not Rail >rei%ht submits a bid.
Chapter 4
Decision Analysis
a. b. c. d. T!"#$ 4.
"repare a profit pa(off table from TransrailJs point of view. What decision would be made if Transrail were conservative #f Rail >rei%ht is known to submit bids on onl( &/< of the proLects it considerswhat decision should Transrail make iven the information in 6c7- how much would a corporate sp( be worth to Transrail to find out if Rail >rei%ht will bid ecision makin% with and without probabilities
The Super $ola $ompan( must decide whether or not to introduce a new diet soft drink. +ana%ement feels that if it does introduce the diet soda it will (ield a profit of G1 million if sales are around 1:: million- a profit of G&::-::: if sales are around /: million- or it will lose G& million if sales are onl( around 1 million bottles. #f Super $ola does not market the new diet soda- it will suffer a loss of G4::-:::. a. b. c. d.
e. T!"#$ /.
7
$onstruct a pa(off table for this problem. $onstruct a re%ret table for this problem. Should Super $ola introduce the soda if the compan( 617 is conservativeI 6&7 is optimisticI 6)7 wants to minimi'e its ma*imum disappointment An internal marketin% research stud( has found "61:: million in sales7 8 1=)I "6/: million in sales7 8 1=&I "61 million in sales7 8 1=0. Should Super $ola introduce the new diet soda A consultin% firm can perform a more thorou%h stud( for G&2/-:::. Should mana%ement have this stud( performed ecision makin% with and without probabilities
Super $ola is also considerin% the introduction of a root beer drink. The compan( feels that the probabilit( that the product will be a success is .0. The pa(off table is as follows
"roduce 6d 17 o Not "roduce 6d &7
Success 6 s17
>ailure 6 s&7
G&/:-::: ?G /:-:::
?G)::-::: ?G &:-:::
The compan( has a choice of two research firms to obtain information for this product. Stanton +arketin% has market indicators- I 1 and I & for which "6 I 1 s17 8 .2 and "6 I 1 s&7 8 .4. New World +arketin% has indicators J 1 and J & for which "6 J 1 s17 8 .0 and "6 J 1 s&7 8 .). a. b. c. d. e.
What is the optimal decision if neither firm is used !ver what probabilit( of success ran%e is this decision optimal What is the E"# >ind the ES#s and efficiencies for Stanton and New World. #f both firms char%e G/-:::- which firm should be hired #f Stanton char%es G1:-::: and New World char%es G4-:::- which firm should Super $ola hire Wh(
Chapter 4
8
T!"#$ 0.
$omputin% branch probabilities
ollar epartment Stores has Lust ac,uired the chain of Wenthrope and Sons $ustom Dewelers. ollar has received an offer from @arris iamonds to purchase the Wenthrope store on rove Street for G1&:-:::. ollar has determined probabilit( estimates of the storeJs future profitabilit(- based on economic outcomes- as "6G3:-:::7 8 .&"6G1::-:::7 8 .)- "6G1&:-:::7 8 .1- and "6G14:-:::7 8 .4. a. b. c.
T!"#$ 2.
Decision Analysis
Should ollar sell the store on rove Street What is the E"# ollar can have an economic forecast performed- costin% G1:-:::- that produces indicators I 1 and I &- for which "6 I 13:-:::7 8 .1I "6 I 11::-:::7 8 .&I "6 I 11&:-:::7 8 .0I "6 I 114:-:::7 8 .). Should ollar purchase the forecast $omputin% branch probabilities
An appliance dealer must decide how man( 6if an(7 new microwave ovens to order for ne*t month. The ovens cost G&&: and sell for G)::. Hecause the oven compan( is comin% out with a new product line in two months- an( ovens not sold ne*t month will have to be sold at the dealerJs half price clearance sale. Additionall(- the appliance dealer feels he suffers a loss of G&/ for ever( oven demanded when he is out of stock. !n the basis of past monthsJ sales data- the dealer estimates the probabilities of monthl( demand 67 for :- 1- &- or ) ovens to be .)- .4- .&- and .1- respectivel(. The dealer is considerin% conductin% a telephone surve( on the customersJ attitudes towards microwave ovens. The results of the surve( will either be favorable 6>7unfavorable 6C7 or no opinion 6N7. The dealerJs probabilit( estimates for the surve( results based on the number of units demanded are
a. b. c. d. T!"#$ 3.
"6> 8 :7 8 .1
"6> 8 &7 .)
"6C 8 :7 8 .3
"6C 8 &7 8 .1
"6> 8 17 8 .&
"6> 8 )7 .5
"6C 8 17 8 .)
"6C 8 )7 8 .1
What is the dealerJs optimal decision without conductin% the surve( What is the E"# Hased on the surve( results what is the optimal decision strate%( for the dealer What is the ma*imum amount he should pa( for this surve( $omputin% branch probabilities
Makewood >ashions must decide how man( lots of assorted ski wear to order for its three stores. #nformation on pricin%- sales- and inventor( costs has led to the followin% pa(off table- in thousands.
!rder Si'e 1 lot & lots ) lots
Mow 1& 5 0
emand +edium 1/ &/ )/
@i%h 1/ )/ 0:
Chapter 4
Decision Analysis
a. b. c. T!"#$ 5.
What decision should be made b( the optimist What decision should be made b( the conservative What decision should be made usin% minima* re%ret ecision makin% without probabilities
The table shows both prospective profits and losses for a compan(- dependin% on what decision is made and what state of nature occurs. Cse the information to determine what the compan( should do. ecision d1 d& d) d4
a. b. c. T!"#$ 1:.
State of Nature s1 s& s) ): 3: ?): 1:: ): ?4: ?3: ?1: 1&: &: &: &:
if an optimistic strate%( is used. if a conservative strate%( is used. if minima* re%ret is the strate%(. ecision makin% without probabilities
A pa(off table is %iven as
ecisio n d1 d& d) a. b. c. d. e. T!"#$ 11.
9
s1 1: 14 2
State of Nature s& s) 3 1/ 3
0 & 5
What decision should be made b( the optimistic decision maker What decision should be made b( the conservative decision maker What decision should be made under minima* re%ret #f the probabilities of s1- s&- and s) are .&- .4- and .4- respectivel(- then what decision should be made under e*pected value What is the E"# ecision makin% with and without probabilities
A pa(off table is %iven as
ecisio n d1 d& d)
s1
State of Nature s&
s)
&/: ):: /::
2/: ?&/: /::
/:: 1&:: 0::
Chapter 4
10
a. b. c. d. e. T!"#$ 1&.
Decision Analysis
What choice should be made b( the optimistic decision maker What choice should be made b( the conservative decision maker What decision should be made under minima* re%ret #f the probabilities of d1- d&- and d) are .&- ./- and .)- respectivel(- then what choice should be made under e*pected value What is the E"# ecision makin% with and without probabilities
A decision maker has developed the followin% decision tree. @ow sensitive is the choice between N and " to the probabilities of states of nature C and N C
/:
"
Topic
1).
/
Sensitivit( anal(sis
#f p is the probabilit( of Event 1 and 61?p7 is the probabilit( of Event &- for what values of p would (ou choose A H $ alues in the table are pa(offs. $hoice=Event A H $
Event 1 : 4 3
Event & &: 10 :
Chapter 4
Decision Analysis
T!"#$ 14.
11
Sensitivit( anal(sis
>old back the decision tree and state what strate%( should be followed. S .//
)::
@ T .4/
C .25
D A
.)/
&:
13:
C .&/
F .2/
E .4:
+
N
H
1: 3:
/: W ./
> .&
1::
O ./ ?/: P .4
?): 1&: /::
Q .0
.3
AA .) R
HH .4 $$ .)
T!"#$
1/.
?&:: 1/: 1:: /:
E*pected value and decision trees
>old back this decision tree. $learl( state the decision strate%( (ou determine.
Chapter 4
12
#
.3&
D
.13
.4& E .&4
A
1::
?4:
?/: F > .)4
H
" .0)
.)2 M
Decision Analysis
):
0:
)/
&/ + .&
/: R .)
N $
S .) T .4
?1:: 1&: 1/:
@ .3 1:
T!"#$ 10.
E*pected value and decision trees
#f sample information is obtained- the result of the sample information will be either positive or ne%ative. No matter which result occurs- the choice to select option A or option H e*ists. And no matter which option is chosen- the eventual outcome will be %ood or poor. $omplete the table. Sample Result
Cse %raphical sensitivit( anal(sis to determine the ran%e of values of the probabilit( of state of nature s1 over which each of the decision alternatives has its lar%est e*pected value.
ecision d1 d& d)
State of Nature s1 s& 3 1: 4 10 1: :
Chapter 4
Decision Analysis
T!"#$ 13.
13
raphical sensitivit( anal(sis
ollar epartment Stores has received an offer from @arris iamonds to purchase ollars store on rove Street for G1&:-:::. ollar has determined probabilit( estimates of the storeJs future profitabilit(- based on economic outcomes- as "6G3:-:::7 8 .&"6G1::-:::7 8 .)- "6G1&:-:::7 8 .1- and "6G14:-:::7 8 .4. a. Should ollar sell the store on rove Street b. What is the E"# c. ollar can have an economic forecast performed- costin% G1:-:::- that produces indicators I 1 and I &- for which "6 I 13:-:::7 8 .1I "6 I 11::-:::7 8 .&I "6 I 11&:-:::7 8 .0I "6 I 114:-:::7 8 .). Should ollar purchase the forecast
T!"#$
"osterior probabilities
SOLUT"ONS TO PROLE!S
1.
a.
There are three decision alternatives 6salar( plans7 and seven states of nature 6the number of houses sold monthl(7. "AP!>> TAHME Salar( "lan # Salar( "lan ## Salar( "lan ###
o Not G1-4::-::: G0::-::: G: #ntroduce 617 do not introduceI 6&7 introduceI 6)7 do not introduce Pes No
/.
a. #ntroduce root beerI p .43) b. E"# 8 G11&-::: N!TE The answers to 6c7?6e7 are ver( sensitive to roundoff error. >i%ures in parentheses are for two decimal places onl(. c. Stanton ES# 8 G1)-&:: 6G11-30&7 Efficienc( 8 .113 6.1:07 New World ES# 8 G0-4:: 6G0-4&47 Efficienc( 8 .:/2 6.:/27 d. @ire Stanton 6Stanton7 e. @ire New World 6Stanton7
0.
a. b. c.
Pes- ollar should sell store E"# 8 G3-::: NoI surve( cost e*ceeds E"#
2. !vens !rdered : 1 & )
3.
: : ?2: ?14: ?&1:
emand >or !vens 1 & ?&/ ?/: 3: // 1: 10: ?0: 5:
) ?2/ ): 1)/ &4:
a. b. c. d.
!rder one oven E 8 G&/.:: E"# 8 G0).:: >avorable order &I Cnfavorable order :I No opinion order 1 ES# 8 G5.1:
E6d17 and E6d&7 intersect at p 8 .0. E6d17 and E6d)7 intersect at p 8 .3))). Therefore when : ≤ p ≤ .0- choose d&. When .0 ≤ p ≤ .3)))- choose d1. When p ≥ .3)))choose d). 10
10 d&
1&
1&
d1
d3
3
3
4
4
p=0
.0
.3))) p = 1
Chapter 4
13.
Decision Analysis
a. b. c.
Pes- ollar should sell store. E"# 8 G3-::: NoI surve( cost e*ceeds E"#.
