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38
T H E D AO O F C A P I T A L
Conifer
Angiosperm
e t a R h t w o r G
Time
Shi Shi versus Li Shi
Li
Roundabout, intertemporal Emphasis on means Patient, nonaggressive Seeks to secure future advantage through immediate objectives Counterforce Subtle, intangible Outcome of most battles immaterial Progress is continuous Focused more on cause Ziel, Mittel Wuwei
Direct, atemporal Emphasis on ends Impatient, aggressive Focuses on immediate results rather than accumulating means Force Dramatic, tangible Outcome or every battle decisive Progress is sequential Focused more on effect Zweck wei
61
Shi
Figure 3.1
Shi (Black) versus Li (White) on the Weiqi Board
63
92
T H E D AO O F C A P I T A L
ZWECK
MITTEL
VERWIRKLICHUNG
(ends or goals)
(means)
(achievement)
MENSCH
AUBENWELT
LEBENSERHALTUNG
(human being)
(environment)
(subsistence)
BEDÜRFNIS
GUT
BEFRIEDIGUNG
(desire or need)
(good)
(satisfaction)
Figure 5.1
Böhm-Bawerk’s Jahresringe.
Shown are depictions of the capital structure of two different economies, where the “life cycle” of a production process starts on the inner r ings and moves outward over time.The economy on the right is less roundabout (and very likely poorer and less productive), as most value is added in lower-order goods (the outer rings), where the goods are closest to the final consumption point.
Source: Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk, The Positive Theory of Capital, 1930, G.E. Stechert & Co., NY.
232
T H E D AO O F C A P I T A L
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5 1900
Figure 9.1
1920
1940
Footprints of Distortio
1960
1980
2000
The Misesian Stationar ity Index
234
T H E D AO O F C A P I T A L 1st
2nd
3rd
4th
15
10 t n e c r e P
5
0
–5
Figure 9.2
Lower Expected Returns with Higher MS Indices
S&P Composite Excess Total 1-Year Returns (Arithmetic Mean)
Austrian Investing I: The Eagle and the Swan 0
1st
2nd
3rd
235 4th
–10
–20
t n e c r e P
–30
–40
–50
Figure 9.3
Higher Expected Drawdowns with Higher MS Indices S&P Composite 20 th and 50th Percentile 3-Year Drawdowns
Austrian Investing I: The Eagle and the Swan S&P
T-bill
237 Misesian
10
t n e c r e P
5
0
Figure 9.4 1-Month T
Misesian Outperformance
Bills, S&P Composite, and Misesian Inv
Strategy
242
0
T H E D AO O F C A P I T A L
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
–5
t n e c r e P
–10
–15
–20
Figure 9.5
Higher Expected Two-Month Losses with Higher MS Indices S&P Composite 2 nd and 5th Percentile 1-Month Returns
Austrian Investing I: The Eagle and the Swan 1st
2nd
3rd
247 4th
6
4
t n e c r e P
2
0
–2
–4
Figure 9.6
Austrian Investing I: Tail Hedg ing an Equity Portfolio
100
>75
70 50 C I O R
30
50–75
25–50
20 15 <25 0
1
2
3
Figure 10.1
4
5 Years
6
7
Siegfrieds Stay Siegfrieds
Rolling 10-Year ROIC (Median), All Stocks Bucketed by Starting ROIC Quartiles, 1970–2013
8
9
10
Austrian Investing II: Sieg fried
265 24.9%
1,000 500
Siegfrieds
y t i u 100 q E e v 50 i t a l i m u C
11.3%
S&P
10 5
1 1980
Figure 10.2
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Siegfrieds versus the “Average Johanns” of the S&P
The Siegfried Strategy’s Cumulative Performance Alongside the S&P Composite Index
266
T H E D AO O F C A P I T A L
4th 3rd
60
2nd 40 t n e c r e P
1st 20
0
1
2
Figure 10.3
3 Years
4
5
Roundabout EBIT Growth
Rolling EBIT Growth (Arithmetic Mean), All Stocks with ROIC 50%
6
Austrian Investing II: Sieg fried
269
60 <–20%
–20% to 20%
>20%
40
t 20 n e c r e P
0
–20
Figure 10.4
Siegfrieds and the Effects of Distortion
Siegfried Strategy Mean Annual Returns and 20 th Percentile Drawdowns Bucketed by S&P Composite Annual Returns (over the Same Period)
274
T H E D AO O F C A P I T A L
S&P
Fama – French
Magic Formula
Graham
Quality: Novy – Marx
30
25
20 t n e c r 15 e P
10
5
0
Figure 10.5
Stair-Stepped Refinement
Various Annualized Portfolio Retur ns (Mean and Range), 1978-2013
