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SUMÁRIO 1. Introdução 2. Absorção 3. Acumulação/Distribuição 4. Teste de Oferta/Demand Oferta/Demanda a 5. Spike
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introdução Acreditar que a oscilação no preço dos ativos negociados em Bolsa é aleatória e que não há causalidade entre os movimentos, pode ser um ótimo discurso para quem não tem conhecimento suficiente para explicar as causas de cada movimento. Frases repetidas muitas vezes, ao longo de muito tempo e por muitas pessoas, acabam se tornando verdades absolutas para a grande massa de pessoas. Para tudo o que fazemos procuramos sempre obter os melhores resultados com o menor esforço possível, por isso a grande massa acredita em conceitos superficiais para explicar cenários que exigem um nível de conhecimento muito mais profundo. As pessoas aceitam respostas simples, e sequer confrontam teorias, afinal buscamos os melhores resultados com o menor esforço – “se alguém já parou pra pensar nisso e chegou a essa conclusão, para que eu vou me esforçar para confrontar tal assunto”? Venha comigo nessa jornada que irá aprofundar seu conhecimento! Assumo também o compromisso de compartilhar minha experiência adquirida no mercado de renda variável desde 1997. 1997.
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absorção Q
uando grandes players (Head Funds, Grandes Corporações, etc) estão interessados em aumentar substancialmente em seu portfólio determinados ativos, os responsáveis por fazer a compra desses papéis recebem ordens expressas de adquirir esses ativos em níveis de preços mais baixos possíveis. As Absorções são realizadas tanto nos momentos onde os grandes players decidem ir às compras, como também em situações em que eles decidem vender. Sabendo disso, podemos afirmar que as Absorções são realizadas em topos e fundos, em momentos de grande euforia, quando todos estão otimistas (topo) e também em situações de grande desespero, quando o cenário não
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absorção Os participantes do mercado já estão descrentes com o cenário e resolvem se livrar de seus ativos, nesse momento se desenrola a primeira fase de um ciclo de alta. Os grandes players aproveitam o desespero da grande massa e tem a chance de comprar muitos ativos devido a grande liquidez, liq uidez, por preços baixos.
Desespero extremo
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acumulação distribuição A
acumulação ou a distribuição costumam acontecer depois do processo de absorção. Acumulação e Distribuição são proc processos essos idênticos, o que muda é apenas a posição no gráfico. Quando o mercado está se preparando para decolar em um grande ciclo de alta, esse processo é chamado de Acumulação,, pois a liquidez durante a absorção Acumulação não foi suficiente para que os grandes players players acumulassem a quantidade desejada, portanto o mercado se mantém em um intervalo i ntervalo de preço por alguns períodos, simplesmente para que o aumento da posição dos players aconteça ainda em níveis de preços baixos.
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acumulação distribuição
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acumulação distribuição J
á a Distribuição ocorre da mesma forma, porém antecede um ciclo de baixa, é o momento onde os grandes players distribuem seus ativos na mão da grande massa, executam esse processo quando o mercado está em níveis de preço interessantes. A Distribuição também ocorre após uma absorção, porém uma absorção durante uma grande alta, em um momento de euforia máxima.
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teste de oferta e demanda O
mercado se comporta de uma forma muito parecida a um exército no campo de batalha, até porque quando estamos estudando os movimento movimentos s do mercado através dos gráficos, estamos estudando simplesmente o rastro que os grandes players
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teste de oferta e demanda O teste de demanda tem a mesma função: testar o mercado para que os preços caminhem para uma determinada direção, porém agora estamos falando de um ciclo de baixa.
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teste de oferta e
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spike
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