Betfair Betting System How to lay favourites for a living

Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

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(o)yrig%t © 2! *y +ristian ,ac.an "## rig%ts reserve&/ 0t is i##ega# to co)y1 &istri*ute1 or create &erivative wors fro. t%is *oo in w%o#e or in )art/ P#ease *e aware t%at using any infor.ation in in t%is *oo is at your own &iscretion/ %e aut%or is in no way #ia*#e for any &e*ts t%at you .ay incur wit% your *etting/ P#ease note t%at ga.*#ing an& t%e use of infor.ation re#ate& to ga.*#ing is i##ega# in so.e countries/ %e aut%or %o#&s no res)onsi*i#ity for any rea&er using t%e infor.ation %erein w%i#e it is against t%e #oca# #aws of t%e country t%ey resi&e in/ Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

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CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION (ongratu#ations on )urc%asing a co)y of 3How to Lay Favourites for a Living3/ Living3/ 4%at you %ave in front of you is essentia##y a 3%ow to3 gui&e for a.assing a fortune t%roug% %orse racing/ %e si5e of t%at fortune &e)en&s entire#y u)on you/ So.e of you wi## rea& t%is .anua#1 an& t%in to yourse#f 6O% t%at soun&s #ie a great way to .ae .oney7 .oney7 *ut never act u)on it/ 4%et%er *ecause of fear or )ure #a5iness1 0 &on3t now/ Ot%ers wi## )us% t%eir t%eir worries asi&e1 tae on *oar& t%e )rinci)#es it contains an& *egin to create t%e wea#t% t%ey &eserve/ 0 sincere#y %o)e you are )art of t%e secon& grou)/ Of course everyone w%o rea&s t%is *oo wi## %ave &ifferent #eve#s of si## an& now#e&ge wit%in t%e *roa& area of %orse racing ga.*#ing/ ga.*#ing/ 8any of you wi## wi## fin& yourse#f co.ing *ac to &ifferent )arts of t%e *oo ti.e an& ti.e again in or&er to fu##y un&erstan& an& interna#ise t%e )rinci)#es taug%t/ So w%i#st t%is *oo %as t%e structure of a 3%ow to3 gui&e1 in t%at it contains ste) *y ste) instructions1 it s%ou#& *e note& t%at it3s .eant to *e use& as a reference/ 9ou wi## no &ou*t fin& t%at you )ic u) so.e )arts of t%e *oo a#.ost straig%t away w%i#st ot%er )arts re:uire severa# rea&ings/ %is is )erfect#y natura# an& t%e ey is to go at your own )ace/ 0t3s no goo& %itting t%e e;c%anges *efore you %ave .astere& t%e art of #aying as t%at is a sure fire way to #ose #ose .oney/ Of course you wi## nee& to a))#y t%e )rinci)#es in t%is *oo in rea#-#ife e;a.)#es on t%e e;c%anges *efore you can tru#y un&erstan& an& interna#ise t%e./ %is is w%y 0 strong#y reco..en& t%at you *egin *egin *y )a)er tra&ing your se#ections rat%er t%an rising .oney on t%e. straig%t away/ By &oing t%is you wi## *eco.e co.forta*#e wit% #aying wit%out #osing any rea# .oney/ Due to t%e &ifferent e;)erience #eve#s of a## t%e rea&ers 0 %ave &eci&e& to structure t%is *oo into < )arts/ %e first is .ore a gui&e to ga.*#ing in genera# an& wi## *e usefu# to t%e co.)#ete 3new*ies3 out t%ere/ 0n t%is section 0 wi## e;)#ain a## t%e *asics of ga.*#ing inc#u&ing o&&s an& )ercentages an& t%e notion of va#ue/ 0n t%e secon& )art of t%e *oo 0 go on to &iscuss #aying %orses in .ore &etai#/ "#so inc#u&e& is a *asic user gui&e of Betfair to %e#) you on your way/ 0n t%e t%ir& )art 0 wi## s%ow you %ow to stu&y race car&s an& for. wit% )articu#ar reference to t%e $acing Post we*site/ %e fourt% )art is t%e syste. itse#f/ 0t wi## teac% you %ow to s)ot #osing favourites in Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

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as #itt#e as %a#f an %our a &ay/ 0n t%e fift% an& fina# )art 0 offer furt%er tactics to en%ance your )rofits inc#u&ing )rofessiona# staing an& *an .anage.ent strategies/


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TABLE OF CONTENTS (%a)ter '? 0ntro&uction /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

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Part 1: The Basics of Gambling .................................................................................................................................................................. 6 (%a)ter 2? @n&erstan&ing O&&s an& Percentages /................................................................................................................................ A (%a)ter =? %e otion of Ca#ue //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

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Part 2: The Basics of Laying /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

15

(%a)ter >? 4%at is Laying ///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

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(%a)ter
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Part 3: Understanding the Racing Post ebsite//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

22

(%a)ter !? @n&erstan&ing t%e $ace (ar& //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

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(%a)ter A? @n&erstan&ing t%e Post&ata ta*#e ///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

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(%a)ter ? Stu&ying a Horse3s $acing History //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

2A

Part !: "o# to Pic$ a Losing "orse//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

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(%a)ter ? Laying Horses G F#at $acing ////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

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(%a)ter '? Ste) ' G Pri.ary 4arning Signs G F#at $acing ///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

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(%a)ter ''? Ste) 2 G Eva#uating t%e O))osition ////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

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(%a)ter '2? Ste) = G Secon&ary 4arning Signs G F#at $acing ///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

=A

(%a)ter '=? Ste) > G Bringing 0t "## oget%er //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

>2

(%a)ter '>? E;a.)#e '//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

>>

(%a)ter '
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(%a)ter '!? Laying Horses G ationa# Hunt ,u.)I $acing ///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

(%a)ter 'A? Ste) ' G Pri.ary 4arning Signs G ,u.) $acing ///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

(%a)ter '? Ste) 2 G Eva#uating t%e O))osition ////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

!2

(%a)ter '? Ste) = G Secon&ary 4arning Signs G ,u.) $acing ///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

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(%a)ter 2? Ste) > G Bringing 0t "## oget%er //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

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(%a)ter 2'? E;a.)#e =//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

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Part 5: &a'imising Profits////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

75

(%a)ter 22? Laying at t%e $ig%t Price ////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

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(%a)ter 2=? @sing a Betting Ban ///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

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(%a)ter 2>? Fina# %oug%ts ////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

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P"$ OE? HE B"S0(S OF J"8BL0J %is )art is essentia##y for t%e new*ies out t%ere/ 0n t%is section 0 wi## :uic#y go t%roug% t%e *asics of ga.*#ing inc#u&ing o&&s an& )ercentages an& t%e i.)ortance of va#ue in *etting/ Of course even if you %ave e;)erience wit% ga.*#ing you sti## .ay fin& so.e usefu# infor.ation %ere1 an& 0 wou#& a&vise everyone to at #east si. rea& t%is )art/


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CHAPTER 2: UNDERSTANDING ODDS AND PERCENTAGES O&&s are referre& to as t%e K)riceK for a %orse in a race/ %e *oo.aers set t%e )rices accor&ing to w%at t%ey *e#ieve is t%e %orse3s c%ance of winning/ %e .ore #ie#y t%ey t%in a %orse is to win1 t%e Ks%orterK t%e %orse3s )rice wi## *e/ %at is to say t%e s.a##er t%e return wi## *e for a )unter w%o *acs t%e %orse to win/ For e;a.)#e if a %orse is )rice& at >' t%en t%e *ooie is saying t%at if t%at e;act race was run < ti.es t%at %orse wou#& win it once/ Or to )ut it anot%er way t%e %orse %as a 2M c%ance of winning/ %ere are t%ree &ifferent ways o&&s can *e )resente&/ De)en&ing on w%ic% .aret t%e *oo.aer targets/ O&&s are )resente& *y eit%er t%e Britis%1 Euro)ean or ".erican stan&ar&/ British - Frati!"a# O$$s

%e tra&itiona# Britis% way is to &escri*e t%e o&&s as a fraction e/g <' or KFive to OneK/ 4%en t%e first figure is %ig%er t%an t%e secon& it is ca##e& Ko&&s againstK/ %e a.ount won wi## *e greater t%an t%e origina# stae/ For e;a.)#e if t%e o&&s offere& were <' t%en for every N' stae& you wou#& win N! t%en for every N! stae& you wou#& win N>/ Be#ow is an e;a.)#e of an on-#ine race car& using Britis% O&&s


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E%r!&'a" - D'i(a# O$$s

@n#ie t%e Britis% fractions t%e Euro)ean syste. &ea#s in &eci.a#s/ %e figure :uote& is t%e return a )unter receives inc#u&ing t%e staeI *ase& on a *et of ' unit/ o transfer fro. Britis% o&&s to Euro)ean o&&s si.)#y &ivi&e t%e first nu.*er *y t%e secon& nu.*er an& a&& '/ So o&&s of <' *eco.e ! <  ' Q ' R !I an& o&&s of >! *eco.e '/!A >  ! Q ' R '/!AI %e *etting e;c%anges a## use t%e Euro)ean o&&s syste. so it is so.et%ing you are going to %ave to #earn to recognise/ Be#ow is an e;a.)#e of an on-#ine race car& using Euro)ean O&&s


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A('ria" O$$s

%e ".erican syste. is &ifferent again an& is t%e .ost co.)#icate& &ue to o&&s *eing eit%er )ositive or negative/ %e syste. is *ase& on 6evens7 ''I *eing e;)resse& as '// 0f an event is o&&s on t%en t%e figure is )rece&e& *y a .inus 6-7 an& re)resents t%e a.ount you %ave to stae in or&er to win ' units/ 0f an event %as o&&s greater t%an evens t%en it is a )ositive figure an& re)resents t%e a.ount you win for every ' units stae&/ Don3t worry if you &on3t un&erstan& t%is co.)#ete#y/ 4e wi## not *e &ea#ing in ".erican o&&s in any way/ Be#ow is an e;a.)#e of an on-#ine race car& using ".erican O&&s


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CHAPTER ,: THE NOTION OF ALUE %e notion of va#ue is wi&e#y un&eresti.ate& in t%e wor#& of ga.*#ing *y a#.ost everyone *ar t%e )rofessiona#s/ 0t is t%e very reason t%at *oo.aers are a*#e to )rofit on every %orse in every race/ Let .e e;)#ain/ 0f a %orse3s rea# c%ance of winning is ' t%en it .eans t%at if t%at %orse was a##owe& to run t%at e;act sa.e race ten ti.es it wou#& win once/ %e ot%er nine ti.es it wou#& #ose/ 0f you )ut N' on t%e %orse for eac% of t%ose ten races you wou#& invest N' in tota#/ For t%e one race t%at t%e %orse won you wou#& receive N' *ac fro. t%e *oo.aers inc#u&ing N )rofit an& t%e N' stae returne&I/ So as you can see in t%e #ong run you wou#& *rea even/ ow i.agine t%at sa.e %orse1 wit% it3s ' c%ance of winning1 was )rice& at '<' *y a *oo.aer/ ow for t%ose ten races your invest.ent wou#& sti## *e N'/ But your return on t%at one winning race wou#& now *e N'! inc#u&ing N'< )rofit an& t%e N' stae returne&I/ %is .eans you wi## %ave .a&e N! )ure )rofit or .ore i.)ressive#y a !M return on invest.ent/ Of course t%e e;a.)#e a*ove is very si.)#istic *ut t%e .o&e# wor/ Having va#ue in your )rofits is t%e on#y way to rea) #ong ter. )rofits/ ow i.agine %ow .any ti.es a *oo.aer wi## .ae a .istae on one of its )rices/ %in of t%e resources avai#a*#e to La&*roes for e;a.)#e/ %ey %ave tea.s of e;)erts stu&ying t%e for. of every %orse in every race1 not to .ention t%e co.)uter )rogra.s t%at can crunc% years of &ata in secon&s/ "n& a## )itte& against you G t%e )unter/ ow &o you see %ow %ar& it is to *eat t%e *oo.aer %is is e;act#y t%e reason w%y so few )eo)#e can earn a #iving fro. ga.*#ing/ Furt%er.ore t%e .aority of )eo)#e #ie to *et on favourites *ecause t%ey *e#ieve t%is wi## give t%e. a *etter strie rate %ence *etter )rofits/ But guess w%at %e favourites offer t%e worst va#ue out of every %orse in t%e fie#&/ Let .e e;)#ain/ 4%en )ricing u) %orses t%e *oo.aers inc#u&e& an over roun& on every %orse so t%at eac% one re)resents va#ue for t%e./ o )ut it anot%er way t%e *oo.aer wants to *e certain t%at of .aing a )rofit in every race/ 0t3s u) to t%e )unter to fin& a %orse t%at t%e *ooie %as )rice& u) wrong#y an& w%ic% offers va#ue/ Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

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Cery toug% to &o/ Boo.aers wor in )ercentages/ ow if t%e )ercentage of a## t%e runners in any given race )ut toget%er is *e#ow 'M t%en t%eoretica##y we can *ac every %orse in t%at race an& *e guarantee& a )rofit/ Of course t%is never %a))ens/ Be#ow is a screen )rint of a recent race at Leicester

"s you can see t%e tota# starting )rice is ''
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However since t%e a&vent of t%e *etting e;c%anges )eo)#e %ave *een a*#e to co)y t%e *oo.aers an& *egin .aing *ets wit% va#ue a#rea&y *ui#t in/ 0n fact on t%e e;c%anges you %ave a&vantages over t%e *oo.aer/ 9ou &o not %ave to #ay every %orse in every race of t%e &ay/ 9ou get to %an& )ic t%e %orses you #ay w%ic% .eans you effective#y ust )ic t%e crea. of t%e *oo.aers *usiness to focus on/ %e *ooies %ave &one t%e %ar& wor for you/ 9ou wi## use .y syste. to )ic t%e favourites wit% t%e #east c%ance of winning/ %en you si.)#y watc% t%e c#ue#ess )unters &rive t%e )rices &own w%ic% in turn gives you .ore an& .ore va#ue in your *ets/ 4it% t%is strategy you are guarantee& va#ue in a## your *ets an& as suc% are guarantee& #ong ter. )rofits/ 0n t%e ne;t section 0 wi## &iscuss t%e )rocess of #aying in .ore &etai#/


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P"$ 4O? HE B"S0(S OF L"90J 0n t%is section 0 wi## e;)#ain t%e conce)t of #aying in .ore &etai#/ o #ay %orses you nee& to use a *etting e;c%ange an& so 0 %ave inc#u&e& a s%ort gui&e to Betfair1 w%ic% is t%e e;c%ange you wi## .ost #ie#y *e using/


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CHAPTER : HAT IS LA3ING4 Laying %orses is not as co.)#icate& as you .ig%t t%in/ 0t certain#y isn3t as co.)#icate& as .any )eo)#e wi## #et you *e#ieve/ Laying a %orse is #ie taing on t%e ro#e of t%e *ooie/ 0t is si.)#y *etting t%at a %orse won3t win/ So if you #ay a %orse an& it #oses t%e race your *ets wins/ 0f you #ay a %orse an& it wins t%e race your *et #oses/ Lets run t%roug% a :uic e;a.)#e so you un&erstan& t%is fu##y/ 4e #ay a %orse ca##e& 8y Sa##y at o&&s of =/ 2' in Eng#is% o&&sI for N' 0f 8y Sa##y wins we %ave to )ay out N2 0f 8y Sa##y #oses we win N' "s you can see t%e #ower t%e o&&s t%e #ess we %ave to )ay out/ %is is w%y .y syste. focuses on #aying s%ort )rice& favourites/ 0t offers us .uc% #ess of a ris an& %ig%er va#ue/ o #ay a %orse you %ave to use *etting e;c%ange/ @n#ie tra&itiona# *etting w%ere t%ere is a *oo.aer w%o sets t%e o&&s an& )unters w%o eit%er tae t%e offere& o&&s or wa# away1 a *etting e;c%ange is si.)#y a we*site w%ere visitors can *et against ot%er visitors on a range of events/ "## *ets on t%e e;c%ange %ave *een )#ace& t%ere *y users w%o eit%er want to )#ace a *et in t%e nor.a# way *acI1 or offer o&&s to ot%er )unters #ayI/ Bets are .atc%e& *etween )eo)#e wit% o))osing views/ ,ust as e*ay .atc%es u) *uyers an& se##ers via t%e internet1 *etting e;c%anges3 .atc%es u) custo.ers w%o want to strie a wager/ 9ou never now w%o you are *etting against1 your )rivacy an& t%e confi&entia#ity of your *ets is .aintaine& *y a secure site/ o *eco.e a .e.*er you si.)#y %ave to register a &e*it or cre&it car& an& )#ace so.e fun&s into your account/ Once you %ave &one t%is you can start to use t%e account straig%t away/ %ere are a nu.*er of *etting e;c%anges avai#a*#e on t%e internet/ Be#ow 0 %ave #iste& a nu.*er of e;c%anges an& t%eir @$L3s/ Betfair is *y far t%e *iggest *etting e;c%ange in t%e .aret)#ace/ 0t is t%e one 0 Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

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almost always use as it has the most liquidity available.

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Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2006 All Rights Reserved

17

CHAPTER 5: HO TO USE A BETTING ECHANGE %e fo##ow instructions are &esigne& to %e#) you )#ace #ay *ets using a *etting e;c%ange/ %e user gui&e uses Betfair as an e;a.)#e as it is t%e e;c%ange you are .ost #ie#y to use/ 0f you %aven3t registere& you wi## nee& to c#ic on t%e 3,oin ow3 *utton an& fi## in your &etai#s/ 0f you %ave si.)#y fi## in your userna.e an& )asswor& an& c#ic 3Login3/

%e #eft %an& si&e of t%e front )age wi## #oo #ie t%is1 an& is a #ist of a## t%e &ifferent s)orts covere&/ (#ic on 3Horse $acing G o&ays (ar&3 for a #ist of a## t%e races co.ing u) on t%at &ay/ Of course if you are #aying t%e nig%t *efore t%e race you wi## c#ic on 3Horse $acing3


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%e #ist of s)orting o)tions wi## c%ange to s%ow a #ist of %orse races for t%e &ay1 %a))ening a## over t%e wor#&1 sorte& *y ti.e Si.)#y scro## &own an& fro. t%e #ist of races c#ic on t%e race you are #aying in/ Se#ect t%e race *y i.e an& (ourse/ Do not se#ect t%e race .eeting to )#ace as we are on#y *etting on t%e %orse not to win/


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%e race .eeting wi## co.e u) on t%e screen an& wi## #oo confusing at first *ut it is :uite straig%t forwar&/

o t%e #eft we %ave t%e na.e of t%e %orse in *o#& an& t%e ocey3s na.e un&erneat%/ %e first t%ree co#u.ns of nu.*ers after t%e %orses3 na.es s%ow t%e o&&s for *acing t%e %orse to win1 wit% t%e *est o&&s in t%e *#ue s:uares/ %e &eci.a# figures are t%e o&&s an& t%e figures in )oun&s are t%e a.ount avai#a*#e to *et wit%/ Basica##y t%is .eans so.eone e#se %as #ai& t%e %orse at t%is )rice wit% t%e a.ount of .oney s%own *e#ow/ %ey are waiting for so.eone to acce)t t%eir offer/ 0gnore t%ese as we are not *acing t%e %orses/ %e secon& set of t%ree co#u.ns s%ow t%e o&&s for t%e %orses #osing i/e/ #ay *etsI/ "gain t%e *est o&&s are %ig%#ig%te& in t%e )in s:uares/ "s *efore t%e &eci.a# figures are t%e o&&s an& t%e figures in )oun&s are t%e a.ount avai#a*#e to *et wit%/ Basica##y t%is .eans so.eone e#se is re:uesting an o))ortunity to *et a certain a.ount at t%eir )referre& o&&s an& is waiting for an offer to #ay at t%at )rice/


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(#ic on t%e *est o&&s in t%e )in s:uareI for t%e %orse you %ave se#ecte& to #ay/ %e rig%t %an& si&e of t%e we*site wi## now c%ange1 s%owing t%e %orse3s na.e1 t%e o&&s se#ecte& an& asing for t%e *acers stae as fo##ows?

9ou can c%ange t%e o&&s to w%atever )rice you are co.forta*#e offering y)e in t%e a.ount you want to #ay t%e %orse for in t%e 3Bacer3s Stae3 *o; an& Betfair wi## auto.atica##y wor out your #ia*i#ity i/e/ %e a.ount you stan& to #ose if t%e %orse winsI/ For a&vice on w%at o&&s to set an& t%e a.ount to stae )#ease see t%e c%a)ters 3Laying at t%e $ig%t Price3 an& 3@sing a Betting Ban3 #ater in t%is .anua#/ Once you %ave &one t%at c#ic on su*.it in t%e *otto. rig%t %an& corner of t%e )age/ 9ou wi## t%en *e ase& to confir. your *et/ (#ic on yes if you are %a))y wit% it/ %e screen wi## now c%ange to s%ow w%et%er or not your *et %as *een .atc%e&/ 0f t%e *et %as *een .atc%e&1 t%en t%e *et is )#ace& an& you on#y %ave to wait for t%e resu#ts/ 0f t%e *et is un.atc%e& you %ave severa# o)tions? 9ou .ay wait to see if so.eone e#se co.es a#ong w%o is )re)are& to acce)ts t%e o&&s you %ave s)ecifie&/ 9ou can c%ange t%e o&&s in or&er to .atc% a *acer w%o is offering &ifferent o&&s/ Or you can cance# t%e *et/ 0t is a#so )ossi*#e for your *et to *e )art-.atc%e&/ %is is w%ere so.e of your stae %as *een .atc%e& wit% a *acer1 *ut so.e %as not/ @sing Betfair is re#ative#y easy once you get use& to it/ 0f you are sti## unsure of anyt%ing t%en Betfair offers co.)re%ensive on#ine %e#)/ For an easy to fo##ow user gui&e si.)#y go to t%e Betfair we*site1 c#ic on t%e %e#) .enu an& t%en on t%e view our &e.o *utton/ Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

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P"$ H$EE? @DE$S"D0J HE $"(0J POS 4EBS0E 0n t%is section 0 wi## &etai# %ow to navigate aroun& t%e $acing Post3s we*site/ "## t%e infor.ation *e#ow is a#so avai#a*#e in t%e Dai#y racing Post news)a)er/ 0 )refer to use t%e we*site *ut of course it is u) to you w%at you use/ 0f you are )icing your se#ections t%e nig%t *efore t%en you wi## nee& to use t%e we*site/ %e we*site can *e visite& *y c#icing on t%e #in T %tt)?www/racing)ost/co/u "#t%oug% ot%er )a)ers inc#u&e race car&s in t%eir %orse racing sections we wi## not *e using t%e./ %ey &o not contain enoug% infor.ation for us to confi&ent#y )ic a #osing %orse/


22

CHAPTER 6: UNDERSTANDING RACE CARDS Once you enter t%e .ain site you wi## nee& to register to get access to t%e usefu# infor.ation/ %is is an easy )rocess an& s%ou#& on#y tae a .inute or two/ o see t%e race car&s si.)#y c#ic on t%e re#evant &ate in t%e to) #eft %an& corner of t%e screen/ %en on t%e rig%t %an& si&e towar&s t%e *otto. of t%e screen you can )ic t%e .eeting you want to *rowse t%roug%/ Once you %ave &one t%at an& c#ice& on a s)ecific race you wi## *e )resente& wit% a screen si.i#ar to t%e one *e#ow/

'/ '=/

2/ =/ A/ >/ /
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'/ %is *o; contains &etai#s a*out t%e race itse#f/ 0n t%e centre of t%e *o; is t%e tit#e of t%e race1 fo##owe& *y t%e grou) c#ass an& t%e age #i.it of t%e %orses e#igi*#e to run/ @n&erneat% t%e tit#e are t%e &etai#s of t%e )ri5e .oney avai#a*#e for t%e race/ On t%e #eft %an& si&e of t%is *o; are t%e ti.e of t%e race an& t%e Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

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nu.*er of runners in t%e race/ On t%e rig%t %an& si&e of t%e *o; you wi## fin& t%e race &istance an& t%e going/ 2/ %e nu.*er of t%e %orse on t%e race car& a#so s%own on t%e %orse3s sa&&#ec#ot%I fo##owe& *y t%e nu.*er of t%e &raw t%e sta## fro. w%ic% it %as *een &rawn to runI/ =/ %e for. of t%e %orse it3s .ost recent #ast runI/ " &as% in&icates t%e start of t%e current season1 *o#& ty)e in&icates a resu#t on a &ifferent surface to to&ay3s race1 e; in&icates an a&&itiona# weig%t )ena#ty to *e carrie&1 & in&icates &is:ua#ifie&/ >/ %e %orse3s na.e an& country of *irt% if not Britis%/

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CHAPTER 7: UNDERSTANDING THE POSTDATA TABLE @n&erneat% t%e car& t%ere is t%e Post&ata ta*#e/ %is is a very usefu# too# for :uic#y c%ecing t%e a*i#ity of a %orse/

'/

A/

2/

/

=/

/

>/

'/

''/

!/

'2/

'/ %e $acing Post3s own rating for eac% %orse/ 2/ o)s)ee& G %e $acing Post3s own assess.ent of eac% in&ivi&ua# %orse3s race s)ee&/ =/ Officia# rating G %e officia# %an&ica))er3s rating of eac% in&ivi&ua# %orse3s race s)ee&/ >/ %e na.e of t%e %orse/ &ays !/ %e $acing Post3s own ana#ysis of t%e %orse3s a*i#ity on t%e re#evant going/ Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

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One tic R )roven for. on forecast going or on easyfast groun& if going is softfir. wo tics R )roven for. on forecast going of soft%eavy or fir.%ar&  R un)roven on forecast going - R &e*ut A/ %e $acing Post3s own ana#ysis of t%e %orse3s a*i#ity to co)e wit% t%e race &istance/ One tic R )roven for. aroun& t%is &istance  R un)roven aroun& t%is &istance - R &e*ut / %e $acing Post3s own ana#ysis of t%e %orse3s a*i#ity over t%e race course/ One tic R )roven for. on t%is course wo tics R two or .ore course wins  R un)roven on t%is course - R &e*ut / %e $acing Posts own ana#ysis of t%e effects of t%e &raw/ One tic R goo& &raw wo tics R very goo& &raw X R *a& &raw - R &raw neit%er goo& nor *a& '/ %e $acing Post3s own ana#ysis of t%e %orse3s a*i#ity/ One tic R so.e for. wit%in #ast year wo tics R P8 or S rating wit%in A#* of P8 to) %ree tics R P8 an& S *ot% wit%in A#* of P8 to)  R #ast run .ore t%an a year ago "D no P8 rating X R no a&e:uate for. - R &e*ut ''/ %e $acing Post3s own assess.ent of t%e %orse3s .ost recent for./ One tic R So.e for wit%in t%e #ast ! &ays wo tics R P8 or S rating wit%in A#* of P8 to) ac%ieve& wit%in #ast ! &ays  R #ast run .ore t%an ! &ays ago - R &e*ut '2/ %e %orse w%ic% scores %ig%est on t%e Post&ata ta*#e


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CHAPTER : STUD3ING A HORSE8S RACING HISTOR3 o *ring u) a &etai#e& %istory of a %orse3s races si.)#y c#ic on t%e %orse3s na.e in eit%er t%e race car& or t%e Post&ata ta*#e/ " new win&ow &etai#e& *e#ow wit% o)en u)/

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2/

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'/ %e na.e of t%e %orse/ 2/ Detai#s of t%e %orse3s fa.i#y tree/ =/ %e #ifeti.e recor& for t%e %orse3s races/ >/ %e $acing Post3s ana#ysis of t%e %orse3s c%ances in t%e race/
2A

o *ring u) t%e &etai#e& resu#ts of an in&ivi&ua# race si.)#y c#ic on t%e re#evant #ine in t%e race outco.e co#u.n/ " new win&ow &etai#e& *e#ow wi## o)en u)/

%is )age is usefu# for t%e ana#ysis t%at t%e $acing Post )rovi&es/ 0t .ay )rovi&e infor.ation w%ic% wi## u#ti.ate#y &eci&e w%et%er we #ay t%e %orse or not/


2

PART FOUR: HO TO PIC9 A LOSING HORSE o )ut it si.)#y we are #ooing for 3fa#se favourites3/ %at is a %orse t%at t%e *etting )u*#ic is )utting .oney *e%in& *ut w%ic% we t%in wi## not win/ 4e wi## &o t%is *y #ooing at i.)ortant &ata t%at t%e .aority of )eo)#e &on3t *ot%er wit%/ %ere are #itera##y a %un&re& factors t%at affect t%e outco.e of a %orse race/ So.e )eo)#e s)en& %ours an& %ours stu&ying as .any of t%ese as )ossi*#e an& sti## &on3t get anyw%ere/ %e .aority of t%e )unters1 0 ca## s%ee)1 *ase everyt%ing on for./ "nyt%ing fro. -M of a )rice is going to *e *ase& on recent for./ %is is no coinci&ence/ %e *oo.aers now t%at .ost of t%e .oney *et *y )unters is *ase& on for. in so.e way/ Furt%er to t%is .e&ia )un&its an& news)a)ers ti)sters are o*sesse& wit% for./ 9ou3## often see a so ca##e& e;)ert on C going on a*out a %orse t%at %as great for./ Punters see an& rea& t%is an& it sways t%eir *etting o)inion/ "## t%is .eans is t%at if a %orse is running we## it wi## *e .assive#y over*et *y t%e )u*#ic an& t%ere is va#ue to *e %a& in #aying it/ " %orses3 6for.7 is si.)#y a recor& of a %orses3 recent )erfor.ances/ Basica##y %as t%e %orse *een running we## #ate#y 4%i#st it is o*vious#y an i.)ortant factor in t%e race outco.e1 it is certain#y not t%e *e a## an& en& a##/ For e;a.)#e a %orse t%at won #ast ti.e out wi## a#ways *e over*et/ ow 03. not saying t%at for. &oesn3t count an& 03. certain#y not suggesting you #ay every %orse t%an won #ast ti.e out/ "not%er reason so.e %orse3s are 3fa#se favourites3 are *ecause of t%eir sta*#e connections/ %is wi## usua##y *e t%e case in races w%ere t%e %orses are ine;)erience&/ So t%e #a5y )unter wi## si.)#y )ut %is .oney on t%e %orse wit% t%e .ost %ig% )rofi#e ocey or trainer/ 4e1 %owever1 %ave to &e#ve a #itt#e &ee)er an& stu&y t%e .ain factors *eyon& for. t%at affect t%e resu#t of a race/ %ere are two ty)es of %orse racing in t%e @/+/ - F#at $acing an& ationa# Hunt ,u.)I $acing/ Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

2

CHAPTER : LA3ING HORSES ; FLAT RACING %ese races are run over &istances ranging fro. < fur#ongs < .i#e or '.I to 2 fur#ongs 2 U .i#es or >.I an& are starte& fro. sta##s/ "s t%e na.e suggests t%ere are no o*stac#es in f#at racing/ %e f#at season runs fro. .i&-8arc% to .i& ove.*er a#t%oug% f#at races &o sti## tae )#ace in t%e winter/ F#at %orses .ature :uic#y an& start running as 2 or =-year-o#&s/ F#at races are eit%er run on turf or "## 4eat%er "4I tracs/ %e "4 tracs are co.)rise& of san& an& are a co.)#ete#y &ifferent ett#e of fis% to t%e turf tracs/ %ere are two ty)es of races on t%e f#at G Staes an& Han&ica)s/ 0n staes a## t%e %orses carry t%e sa.e weig%t/ However in %an&ica)s t%e %orses a## carry &ifferent weig%ts/ %e weig%t a %orse carries is *ase& on t%eir a*i#ity w%ic% is assesse& *y t%e officia# %an&ica))er/ %e %ig%est rate& %orse carries t%e .ost weig%t an& t%e one at t%e *otto. carries t%e #east/ %eoretica##y every %orses %as t%e sa.e c%ance of winning/ %e favourites on#y win a*out 2M of %an&ica) races/ %is gives us )#enty of sco)e for #aying/ Even .ore i.)ressive are t%e stats for o&&s-on favourites in %an&ica) races/ Statistics s%ow t%at if you %a& 3#aye&3 every o&&s-on favourite in %an&ica)s for t%e #ast ' years you wou#& %ave .a&e a 2M return on your invest.ent/ %is is a staggering statistic an& is &own to t%e )u*#ic over*etting on t%e favourite an& guaranteeing you va#ue/ %ere are a#so &ifferent ty)es of races &e)en&ing on t%e :ua#ity of t%e fie#&/ 4e wi## *e #ooing to #ay %orses in a## t%ese races/

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Ot%er ty)es of races inc#u&e "uction races1 (#ai.ing races1 an& Se##ing races/ 4E DO O L"9 "9 HO$SES 0 HESE $"(ES/ %is is *ecause t%e %orses invo#ve& are .e&iocre at *est an& it is very %ar& to *e sure of #aying t%e favourite/


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CHAPTER 1=: STEP 1 ; PRI
G-./G

%e going si.)#y &escri*es w%at t%e groun& con&itions are #ie on t%e course/ %e &escri)tions are as fo##ows %eavy1 soft1 goo&-to-soft1 goo&1 goo&-to-fir. an& fir./ %e going is a very i.)ortant factor in any %orse race/ So.e %orses can run e:ua##y we## on any ty)e of going *ut .any %ave a )reference/ 4%at we are on t%e #oo out for is a favourite w%o %as never run on a )articu#ar going *efore t%is wi## usua##y *e in .ai&en racesI1 or a favourite wit% a )oor recor& on t%at )articu#ar going/ %is %a))ens .ore regu#ar#y t%an you .ig%t t%in/ 9ou3## often see a %orse t%at %as *een in s)ar#ing for. on soft tracs *eing favourite on a fir. surface an& *eing soun&#y *eaten/ " #ot of )unters negate to c%ec even t%is si.)#e factor/ BO@S 0P G %e softer t%e groun& t%e *etter it is for us #ayers/ 0t is we## nown t%at favourites win a %ig%er )ercentage of races w%en t%ere is fir. in t%e groun&/ 0f t%e going is goo&-fir. or fir. t%en we nee& ot%er factors to go in our favour if we are to #ay any %orses/ %e %eavier t%e going t%e .ore ran&o. t%e resu#ts ten& to *e/

0.*T+/)

"#ong wit% t%e going1 &istance is t%e .ost i.)ortant factor in a %orse race/ So.e %orses are *etter at s)rinting w%i#st ot%ers %ave .ore sta.ina an& )refer #onger races/ "s a genera# ru#e %orses start off in t%e s)rints an& .ove u) in &istance/ 9ou nee& to *e on t%e #oo out for one of two t%ings/ First#y a %orse t%at is ste))ing u) in tri) for t%e first ti.e/ 4%i#st a %orse .ig%t %ave &one we## at t%e s%orter &istances if it is racing at a #onger &istance for t%e first ti.e it3s goo& for. can *e :uestione&/ Even at t%e s%orter s)rints a ste) u) of a fur#ong can *e significant/ Or secon&#y a %orse t%at %as a )oor recor& at t%e race3s &istance/ For e;a.)#e you Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

=2

.ig%t %ave a %orse wit% e;ce##ent for. over ' .i#e *ut %as %a& a cou)#e of &o&gy runs over '2 fur#ongs/ e;t ti.e t%e %orse runs '2 fur#ongs it is a )ossi*#e #aying o))ortunity/ BO@S 0P G (onsi&er w%at &istances a %orse %as *een running at recent#y/ Horses are ani.a#s of %a*it an& if you see a %orse running at a &ifferent &istance to its .ost recent runs it cou#& *e a #aying o))ortunity/ Jenera##y s)eaing a &ifference of '/< fur#ongs is enoug% for us to cast &ou*t over t%e favourite/ Of course t%is wou#&n3t *e c#asse& as a )ri.ary reason to #ay t%e %orse *ut it cou#& *e a su))#e.entary factor w%en &eci&ing w%ic% %orse to #ay/

L+**

"s seen a*ove t%ere are &ifferent categories of race &e)en&ing on t%e :ua#ity of t%e entrants/ 4%at we are #ooing for is a %orse t%at is .oving u) in c#ass an& racing against *etter o))osition t%an it %as *efore/ 4%at you .ay fin& is a %orse *eing a s%ort )rice& favourite in it3s first con&itions race si.)#y *ecause it won it3s .ai&en co.forta*#y/ However it .ay we## fin& itse#f u) against %orses w%o %ave a#so won t%eir own .ai&ens/ "s we## as races *eing na.e& #ie .ai&ens an& con&itions t%ey are a#so given a c#ass category &e)en&ing on t%e )ri5e .oney avai#a*#e/ %e ta*#e *e#ow su..arises t%e &ifferent c#asses for f#at races?

L+T L+** **T)& C#s 1 Jrou) '////////////////////////// Jrou) 2////////////////////////// Jrou) =////////////////////////// Liste& inc# !-'' C#s 2 %c)s// Heritage o)en %c)s//////// nurseries///////////////////////// !-''////////////////////////////

,/!> N2 N N< N2 N>< N'

2/! N'!< NA N> N2=/< N2 N'=

C#s , C#s  C#s 5 C#s 6 C#s 7

A!-!-!
,/!> N'2/< N/< N< N=/< inc# regiona# *an&s "-D

2/! N'' NA N< N=/< N2

%e #ower t%e c#ass t%e *etter :ua#ity t%e %orses are an& t%e .ore )ri5e .oney avai#a*#e (#ass ' *eing t%e *est %orses an& (#ass A t%e worst/ 4e are #ooing for %orses w%o are .oving u) in c#ass for t%e first ti.e/


==

.R*T T.&) RU//)R

0f a %orse is a s%ort favourite on its first run t%en t%at is a great o))ortunity for #aying/ @sua##y t%e %orse wi## *e a 2 year o#& an& wi## *e running in a .ai&en/ 2 year o#&s are very ine;)erience& ani.a#s an& it is i.)ossi*#e to gauge %ow we## t%ey wi## react to t%eir first outing on t%e race course/ So.e %orses tae to races #ie a &uc to water w%ereas ot%ers nee& severa# races to get use& to it a##/ %e %orse wi## *e a s%ort favourite &ue to its sta*#e connections/ Eit%er it wi## %ave a )o)u#ar trainer or t%e owner wi## %ave )ai& a #ot of .oney for it/ ,ust *ecause it %as a ta## re)utation t%is &oes not .ean it wi## run we##/

*UR+)

"s e;)#ain )revious#y t%e con&itions of t%e groun& %ave a %uge i.)act on a %orse3s running a*i#ity/ Hence a c%ange of surface for a %orse is a#so a *ig factor/ 0f a %orse is running on san& or turf for t%e first ti.e t%en we wi## #oo to o))ose it if ot%er factors are a#so in our favour/ 9ou wi## often fin& a consistent )erfor.er on t%e turf *eing a favourite on its "4 &e*ut *ut fai#ing to #ive u) to its re)utation/ 0t wi## often tae ti.e for a %orse to fa.i#iarise itse#f wit% a new surface/ Over t%e )ast ' years #aying %orses on "4 tracs %as *een .ore )rofita*#e t%an on t%e turf/ One .ain reason for t%is is *ecause )unters try to a))#y turf for. an& ratings to t%e a## weat%er/ %ey wi## over*et a favourite if it %as &one e;ce)tiona##y we## on t%e turf/ BO@S 0P G Laying favourites on t%e "4 is .ost )rofita*#e &uring t%e winter/ %is is *ecause t%e f#at season %as finis%e& an& a #ot of t%e for. %orses .ove on to t%e "4 wit% goo& re)utations an& s%ort )rices1 on#y to get *eaten *ecause t%ey are not use& to t%e surface/

).G"T

%e weig%t t%e %orse is carrying is t%e fina# factor we nee& to assess/ 8ore often t%an not in staes races every %orse wi## *e carrying t%e sa.e weig%t an& any s#ig%t &ifferences are neg#igi*#e/ However it is in %an&ica)s t%at weig%t *eco.es of t%e ut.ost i.)ortance/ 4e nee& Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

=>

to &eci&e if t%e weig%t t%e %orse is carrying wi## affect t%e favourite in any way/ One way to &o t%is is to c%ec w%at weig%t t%e %orse %as carrie& in )revious races/ 0f it is carrying significant#y .ore t%is ti.e aroun& t%en t%is wi## *e a :uestion .ar over t%e %orse/ "not%er way is to rea& t%e $acing Post3s s)ot#ig%t ver&ict on t%e %orse3s c%ance in t%e race/ 0f t%e weig%t is going to *e a )ro*#e. t%ey wi## usua##y )oint t%is out/ BO@S 0P G 4e &o not #ay favourites wit% AQ#*s )ena#ty on t%e "4 tracs as t%ey statistica##y ten& to run we##/

TR+./)R4* -UR*)./ P)R)/T+G)

%is )ri.ary warning sign is &ifferent to t%e rest in t%at it can warn us off #aying a favourite rat%er t%an *eing a factor in our favour/ %is is si.)#y a figure t%at s%ows w%at )ercentage a trainer wins at a )articu#ar course/ 0t can *e a rea##y i.)ortant factor in i&entifying a favourite t%at we s%ou#& not #ay/ Logic &ictates t%at eac% trainer s%ou#& %ave an a*out e:ua# )ercentage for eac% course/ But t%is is not t%e case/ @sua##y a trainer %as at #east one course w%ere it3s %orses &o *etter t%an average an& .ore often t%an not it is t%e course w%ic% is c#osest to t%e sta*#e/ 4%en a %orse is traine& near to a certain course t%e groun& it trains on wi## *e si.i#ar to t%e groun& on t%e race trac &ue to si.i#ar weat%er1 soi# ty)es etc/ %is gives it an i..e&iate a&vantage over t%e rest of t%e fie#& as it is at %o.e on t%ose con&itions/ Furt%er.ore t%e trave##ing ti.e to t%e race trac is s%ort/ Horses are notorious#y te.)era.enta# ani.a#s an& can easi#y *e unsett#e& *y #ong ourneys to t%e trac w%ic% as you wou#& e;)ect worsens t%eir )erfor.ance/ 0 &on3t #ay any %orses w%ere t%e trainer-course )ercentage is over =M/ 0n fact so.eti.es 0 c%ose not to #ay %orses wit% a )ercentage un&er t%is/ For e;a.)#e if t%e trainer of t%e favourite %as a win )ercentage of 2

=<

CHAPTER 11: STEP 2 ; EALUATING THE OPPOSITION "fter carrying out t%e first )rocess of t%e syste. you wi## %ave a #ist of )otentia# favourites to #ay/ %e ne;t ste) is to eva#uate t%e o))osition in t%at race/ 4%at you are #ooing for is at #east one ot%er %orse w%ic% #oos to %ave t%e a*i#ity to *eat t%e favourite/ o &o t%is we :uic#y scan t%e racing %istory for eac% %orse in t%e race searc%ing for at #east one %orse wit% si.i#ar a*i#ity to t%at of t%e favourite/ Of course we &on3t want to s)en& too #ong &oing t%is as we &on3t want to fa## into t%e tra) of s)en&ing %ours rea&ing for./ 4e si.)#y want to fin& %orses wit% si.i#ar race resu#ts to t%at of t%e favourite/ Si.i#ar resu#ts inc#u&es t%e actua# finis%ing )osition of t%e %orse in its )ast races as we## as %ow .any #engt%s it won or #ost *y/ One ru#e 0 stic to is t%at for t%ese riva# %orses to :ua#ify as a )otentia# race winner t%ey cannot %ave .ore )ri.ary warning signs against t%eir na.es t%an t%e favourite/ %e *est way to u&ge a %orse3s a*i#ity is to see %ow it %as )erfor.e& in a certain c#ass/ For e;a.)#e if t%e favourite in a race %as )revious#y won races in c#ass < events1 i&ea##y we want to fin& ot%er %orses in t%at race t%at %ave a#so won c#ass < events/ Or if a favourite %as *een )#ace& *efore t%en we wou#& nee& to fin& ot%er %orses in t%e race w%o %a& *een )#ace& in si.i#ar events to t%e favourite/ %e *est way to un&erstan& t%is as)ect of t%e syste. is to #oo t%roug% t%e )ractica# e;a.)#es 0 wi## tae you t%roug% in a .o.ent/


=!

CHAPTER 12: STEP , ; SECONDAR3 ARNING SIGNS ; FLAT RACING %is is t%e fina# )art of t%e syste./ Once you %ave co.)#ete& t%e first two )rocesses you .ay %ave .ore t%an one :ua#ifier/ 0 use t%e fo##owing factors to *ui#& u) a *igger )icture of eac% race w%ic% %e#)s .e &eci&e w%ic% favourite to #ay/

SECONDAR3 ARNING SIGNS

%ese factors are not as i.)ortant to t%e outco.e of a race as t%e )ri.ary factors *ut t%ey sti## )#ay a )art an& so nee& to *e taen into consi&eration/

0+* *./) L+*T RU/

%is use& to *e a crucia# factor wit%in %orse racing *ut new an& i.)rove& training .et%o&s %ave #essene& its i.)ortance/ 4e nee& to *e on t%e #ooout for a %orse t%at %as not run for ! &ays or is running again wit%in > &ays of it3s #ast run/ 0f a %orse %as not run wit%in ! &ays t%en it %as no &iscerni*#e for. an& it3s t%e sa.e )rinci)#e as a foot*a## )#ayer #acing 3.atc% )ractice3/ However it is i.)ortant to stu&y t%e %orse3s )revious race %istory/ So.e %orses are notorious#y goo& at co.ing *ac fro. a #ong #ay off so if a %orse %as a %istory of t%is we nee& to e;ercise caution/ 0f a %orse runs wit%in > &ays of it3s #ast run it %ere is a c%ance it .ig%t not %ave recovere& fu##y fro. its )revious efforts an& .ay #ac sta.ina/ But again so.e %orses can run we## severa# &ays in a row so c%ec it3s )ast race %istory to *e sure/ BO@S 0P - %e e;ce)tion to t%is ru#e is races on t%e "4 tracs/ Statistics s%ow t%at favourites returning wit%in A &ays on "4 tracs %ave a goo& winning strie rate/

0R+

%e &raw is si.)#y t%e starting sta## )osition of a %orse/ %e #ower t%e nu.*er t%e c#oser it is to t%e insi&e rai#/ On so.e tracs t%is can *e :uite an i.)ortant factor/ Be#ow 0 %ave inc#u&e& a course-*y-course #ist t%at su.s u) t%e genera##y regar&e& o)inion of t%e &raw factor at a## t%irty-four f#at courses in Britain/ Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

=A

"scot "yr Bat%

Bever#ey Brig%ton (ar#is#e (atteric

(%e)stow (%ester

Doncaster

E)so. Downs

Fo#estone Joo&woo& Ha.i#ton Hay&oc Par +e.)ton Par

o significant a&vantage1 a#t%oug% #ow nu.*ers are favoure& on t%e straig%t course in soft going/ Low nu.*ers favoure& in *ig fie#&s on t%e straig%t course1 es)ecia##y w%en t%e going is soft/ "))arent#y #itt#e effect t%oug% t%e five-fur#ong course %ere is on a gra&ua# #eft-%an& *en& w%ic% .ig%t *e t%oug%t to favour #ow nu.*ers/ Hig% nu.*ers u) to f-noticea*#y favoure& in

=

Leicester Lingfie#& Par

8usse#*urg% ew*ury ewcast#e

ew.aret otting%a. Pontefract $e&car $i)on Sa#is*ury San&own Par

Sout%we## %irs

4arwic

4e;for& 4in&sor

groun&I1 a #ow nu.*er w%en t%e sta##s are on t%e stan&s si&e/ Hig% nu.*ers usua##y *est on roun& course/ 8i&&#e to %ig% nu.*ers favoure& on t%e straig%t course/ Low nu.*ers s#ig%t#y favoure& in s)rints on t%e a##weat%er course? on t%e turf course %ig% nu.*ers a))ear to *e favoure&/ Hig% nu.*ers favoure& in races u) to f/ o significant a&vantage1 *ut )er%a)s %ig% nu.*ers *est in #arge fie#&s1 es)ecia##y in very soft groun&/ On t%e straig%t course %orses &rawn towar&s eit%er rai# see. to %ave an a&vantage w%en t%e going is nor.a#1 *ut #ow nu.*ers are es)ecia##y favoure& on t%e straig%t course in soft%eavy groun&/ Litt#e significant a&vantage over any &istance on eit%er t%e $ow#ey 8i#e or t%e ,u#y (ourse/ Hig% nu.*ers favoure& in s)rint races w%en sta##s on stan&s si&e1 #ow nu.*ers w%en sta##s on far si&e/ Low nu.*ers favoure& in s)rint races/ 8i&&#e to %ig% nu.*ers favoure& on t%e straig%t course/ Low nu.*ers a))ear favoure& on t%e straig%t course e;ce)t w%en t%e going is soft%eavy/ Low nu.*ers ten& to *e favoure& in s)rint races on soft going/ On t%e five-fur#ong course %ig% nu.*ers %ave an a&vantage w%en t%e groun& is soft an& w%en t%e sta##s are )#ace& on t%e far si&e #ow nu.*ers are favoure& w%en t%e sta##s are on t%e stan&s si&e/ o a&vantage in straig%t five fur#ongs? #ow &raw favoure& over si; an& seven fur#ongs/ Significant a&vantage for %ig% nu.*ers on t%e straig%t course1 .ore )ronounce& w%en t%e groun& is fast/ Low nu.*ers *est at Af W './ Low nu.*ers favoure& in s%orter races e;ce)t w%en t%e going is soft1 in w%ic% case t%e stan&s si&e ten&s to run faster/ Hig% nu.*ers *est/ Hig% nu.*ers favoure& in s)rints/


=

4o#ver%a.)ton 9ar.out% 9or

Low nu.*ers s#ig%t#y favoure& in s)rints/ Hig% nu.*ers s#ig%t#y favoure& on t%e straig%t course1 es)ecia##y in #arge fie#&s/ Litt#e effect eit%er way/ Per%a)s #ow to .i&&#e nu.*ers *est on t%e straig%t trac1 es)ecia##y w%en soft going )revai#s/

.)L0 *.)

%is is si.)#y t%e nu.*er of %orses in a race/ %e %ig%er t%e si5e of t%e fie#& t%e *etter/ %e .ore runners t%ere are t%e .ore c%ance t%e favourite wi## *e %e#& u) *y anot%er %orse/ %is factor is .ore i.)ortant in .ai&ens t%an ot%er races/ Often you wi## see ine;)erience& %orses getting in eac% ot%er3s way in t%ese races/

.* T") +7-UR.T) + L+*T T.&) -UT .//)R8

0f t%e favourite won it3s #ast race t%en t%is wi## guarantee us .ore va#ue in our #ay/ 8ost of t%e )u*#ic over*et a LO winner an& t%is gives t%e favourite #ower o&&s t%an it &eserves/

9-()

So.e %orses run *etter w%en t%ey %ave a certain ocey ri&ing t%e./ %is &oesn3t necessari#y .ean t%at an e;)erience& ocey wi## *e *est/ Eac% ocey %as a &ifferent tec%ni:ue of racing/ So.e #ie to )us% t%eir %orse %ar& w%i#e ot%ers )refer to *e gent#er/ O*vious#y so.e %orses run *etter &e)en&ing %ow t%ey are treate& &uring t%e race/ o :uic#y see if a %orse an& ocey are a goo& )artners%i) g#ance at t%e racing %istory of t%e %orse to see if t%e ocey %as *een )#ace& on t%at %orse *efore/ 0f it %asn3t t%en it is :uite )ossi*#e t%ey &o not wor we## toget%er an& t%is cou#& *e anot%er factor in our favour/

T-P*P))0

On t%e )ost&ata ta*#e %e $acing Post .ae an assess.ent of eac% in&ivi&ua# %orse3s race s)ee&/ 0f t%e favourite %as a to) s)ee& rating #ower t%an A

>

*) - T") "-R*)

%is %as no *earing on t%e regu#ar turf tracs *ut it can *e i.)ortant on t%e "4 tracs/ " re#ative#y unnown fact is t%at fe.a#e %orses )erfor. *a&#y on t%e san&/ 0f a s%ort )rice& favourite is a fi##y or a .are1 an& ot%er factors are con&ucive1 it is ri)e for #aying/

-R&

(ounter-intuitive#y t%e fina# t%ing 0 c%ec is for./ Jenera##y t%e favourite wi## *e in for. *ut it3s i.)ortant to c%ec anyway/ 4e are not concerne& wit% finis%ing )osition *ut %ow far it won or #ost *y/ 8ost )unters si.)#y #oo at t%e finis%ing )osition *ut we wi## #oo a #itt#e &ee)er/ 4e want to c%ec w%et%er t%e %orse finis%e& wit%in U #engt% )er fur#ong of t%e winner in its #ast 2 runs/ 0f it &i& t%en 0 c#ass t%is as goo& for. if it &i&n3t t%en 0 c#ass t%is as out of for./ %is .eans it is :uite )ossi*#e for t%e favourite to %ave finis%e& 2 n& on it3s )revious two runs an& sti## *e c#asse& as out of for./ Of course if a favourite %as won it3s #ast two runs t%en t%at is consi&ere& very goo& for./ 0f it won t%e races *y .ore t%an U #engt% )er fur#ong t%en 0 consi&er t%is e;ce##ent for./ 0 a#so c%ec t%e for. of t%e %orses in t%e race 0 %ave i&entifie& as )otentia# riva#s to t%e favourite/


>'

CHAPTER 1,: STEP  ; BRINGING IT ALL TOGETHER Once you3ve carrie& out t%e first t%ree ste)s of t%e syste. you .ay %ave a #ist of severa# :ua#ifiers an& you nee& to &eci&e w%ic% one to #ay/ 0 )refer to on#y #ay one %orse a &ay as 0 fin& 0 can get a very %ig% strie rate t%is way/ 0 #ie to use t%e ta*#e *e#ow to co.)are any #ist of :ua#ifiers 0 %ave/ Si.)#y )ut a cross in t%e *o; if t%e warning sign is in our favour an& t%en tota# t%e. u)/ For eac% )ri.ary sign in our favour )ut two crosses in t%e *o;/ However it is i.)ortant to note t%at 0 &on3t necessari#y ust #ay t%e %orse wit% t%e *iggest tota#1 a#t%oug% t%at is genera##y t%e case/ 0 #ie to #oo at t%e *igger )icture/ For e;a.)#e 0 .ig%t #ay a %orse wit% a s.a##er tota# *ecause 0 t%in t%e stan&ar& of o))osition in t%e race is so %ig% t%at it overri&es ot%er factors/ %is wi## tae ti.e for you to )ic u)/ 0 suggest ee)ing trac of a## t%e resu#ts of your :ua#ifiers as t%is wi## %e#) you i.)rove your u&ge.ent/ "s you #ay .ore an& .ore %orses your u&ge.ent wi## i.)rove in #ea)s an& *oun&s/


>2

F#at Rai"+ PR.&+R +R/./G *.G/*

"orse 1

"orse 2

"orse 3

"orse !

JO0J D0S"(E (L"SS 'S 08E $@E$ S@$F"(E 4E0JH $"0E$

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HO4 8"9 $0C"LS

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D"9S S0(E L"S $@ D$"4 F0ELD S0E LO 40E$ ,O(+E9 OPSPEED SEX OF HE HO$SE FO$8

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CHAPTER 1: EA
%e a*ove car& co.es fro. a c#ass > 29O staes at 8usse#*urg% over / Pri.ary 4arning Signs

Looing at t%e Post&ata ta*#e t%ere are no i..e&iate warning signs/ %e %orse %as a tic for *ot% t%e going an& t%e &istance so we %ave to #oo in furt%er &etai# at it3s racing %istory/


>>

4e can i..e&iate#y see t%at Stir (ra5y is carrying .ore weig%t t%an it ever %as *efore/ 0t is carrying #*s .ore an& in fact is carrying t%e %eaviest )ena#ty in t%e race/ "s t%is %orse is ine;)erience& 0 fee# t%is increase in weig%t is significant enoug% to count against t%e %orse/ Furt%er.ore #ooing *ac at t%e %orse3s %istory it3s on#y win ca.e w%en it was carrying significant#y #ess weig%t t%an in to&ay3s race/ 4e can a#so see t%at t%e %orse is ste))ing u) in c#ass fro. it3s )revious race/ Stir (ra5y %as &one re#ative#y we## in c#ass < events *ut w%en race& in a c#ass = it was we## *eaten/ o&ay3s race is a c#ass > event an& 0 fee# t%is is enoug% of a ste) u) to count as a warning sign in our favour/ Fina##y #ooing at t%e trainer3s course-win )ercentage *e#ow we can see t%at t%e favourite3s trainer1 8 $ (%annon %as a win )ercentage of '>M/ %is is not enoug% to scare us fro. #aying t%is %orse/


><

So we %ave two )ri.ary warning signs in our favour G weig%t an& c#ass G an& t%is is enoug% for us to )rocee&/ O))osition ow we %ave to *rowse t%e race %istory of t%e ot%er %orse3s in t%e race to see if we can fin& one wit% si.i#ar a*i#ity to our favourite/

%e 8ig%ty Og.ore #oos to *e a very serious c%a##enger to our favourite/ 0t is carrying .ore weig%t t%an it ever %as *efore w%ic% is t%e on#y )ri.ary warning sign against it a#t%oug% it is si## <#*s #ig%ter t%an t%e favouriteI/ %e favourite %as on#y )erfor.e& we## in c#ass < events *ut t%is %orse %as won a c#ass > event in its )revious race an& see.s to *e getting *etter an& *etter wit% every run/ %is %orse certain#y .atc%es t%e favourite in ter.s of a*i#ity/


>!

E..a o#& Lies is anot%er %orse wit% on#y ' )ri.ary warning sign against it/ Lie t%e favourite it is .oving u) in c#ass/ %is %orse %as %a& si.i#ar race resu#ts to t%at of our favourite/ 0n fact E..a o#& Lies %as won two c#ass < events )revious#y giving it .ore wins t%an t%e favourite/ %is is certain#y anot%er %orse wit% t%e )otentia# to win t%e race/

Jranny Pee# is a#so ste))ing u) in c#ass an& %as :uestion .ars over %er weig%t w%ic% )uts %er on a )ar wit% t%e favourite/ %is %orse %as a#so won a c#ass < event *efore an& overa## %as a *etter racing %istory t%an Stri (ra5y/ Jranny )ee# %as *een )#ace& in every one of it3s races an& %as won > ti.es *efore/ %is %orse certain#y %as as .uc% c%ance of winning t%e race as t%e favourite/

Secon&ary 4arning Signs Fina##y we nee& to see w%at secon&ary warning signs are in our favour to see if we can strengt%en our )osition on #aying t%is %orse/ Looing at t%e &ays since #ast run figure we can see t%at Stir (ra5y #ast ran ' &ay ago/ %is is certain#y in our favour as t%e %orse is un#ie#y to %ave fu##y recovere& fro. t%is race an& t%is wi## effect it3s )erfor.ance/ "ccor&ing to t%e $acing Post t%e &raw favours no %orse/ But #ooing at .y ta*#e a*ove w%ic% goes into .ore &etai# we can see t%at %ig% nu.*ers are a s#ig%t


>A

a&vantage u) to f at 8usse#*urg%/ Stir (ra5y is in sta## 2 an& wi## %ave no suc% a&vantage/

C!"#%si!"

%ere are two )ri.ary warning signs in our favour? ●

●

Stir (ra5y is carrying .ore weig%t t%an it ever %as *efore w%ic% wi## %a.oer its )rogress/ Stir (ra5y is ste))ing u) in c#ass an& wi## *e racing *etter %orses t%an )revious#y/

4e %ave i&entifie& = ot%er %orses in t%e race w%ic% we *e#ieve %ave t%e a*i#ity to *eat t%e favourite/ Fina##y t%ere are two secon&ary warning signs in our favour? ● ●

Stir (ra5y #ast run was on#y ' &ay ago an& so t%e %orse wi## *e tire&/ Ot%er %orses in t%e race %ave t%e *enefit of a *etter &raw/

Stir (ra5y is a &efinite #ay for .e/


>

THE RESULT

0n t%e en& t%e outsi&er won t%e race / 0t wasn3t a %orse 0 i&entifie& as a t%reat *ecause it &i& not see. to %ave t%e a*i#ity to win t%e race1 *ut it %as )rove& .e wrong/ %is s%ows t%e great t%ing a*out #aying/ Often an outsi&er t%at you &on3t even consi&er can co.e fro. now%ere an& *eat t%e favourite/


>

CHAPTER 15: EA
%e a*ove car& co.es fro. a c#ass < %an&ica) at Brig%ton over !.2y on fir. groun&/ For so.e reason t%e $acing Post %as not )u*#is%e& t%e tissue )rices for t%e %orses/ 4%en t%is %a))ens si.)#y c%ec on Betfair to see w%at t%e favourite is/ 0n t%is race t%e favourite was Hig% (#ass Pro*#e./ Pri.ary 4arning Signs Looing at t%e )ost&ata ta*#e we can i..e&iate#y see t%at t%e favourite %as a :uestion .ar over t%e going/ Looing at t%e %orse3s race %istory *e#ow we can see t%at Hig% (#ass Pro*#e. %as never race& on fir. groun& *efore/


<

%is re)resents t%e on#y rea# )ri.ary warning sign for t%e favourite a#t%oug% we can see t%at t%is isn3t rea##y a %orse of great a*i#ity as it3s )revious *est run was a > t% )#ace/ 0t3s see.s t%is %orse is not rea##y any great s%aes in c#ass < events/ Furt%er.ore t%e %orse wi## *e carrying =#* .ore t%an it ever %as *efore/ 4%i#st t%is is not enoug% to count as a warning sign it certain#y )uts .ore &ou*t in t%e a*i#ity of t%e %orse to win t%e race/ Fina##y #ooing at t%e trainer3s course-win )ercentage *e#ow we can see t%at t%e favourite3s trainer1 P F 0 (o#e %as a win )ercentage of M/ %is is not enoug% to scare us fro. #aying t%is %orse/


<'

O))osition e;t we %ave to *rowse t%e race %istory of t%e ot%er %orse3s in t%e race to see if we can fin& one wit% si.i#ar a*i#ity to our favourite/

E#usive 4arrior %as no )ri.ary warning signs against it3s na.e an& see.s to *e .ore t%an a .atc% for t%e favourite as it %as won a c#ass < event on it3s )revious run/ Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

<2

Danis% B#ues is anot%er %orse no )ri.ary warning signs against it3s na.e an& %as t%e )otentia# to *eat t%e favourite %ere/ 4%i#st t%is %orse %as not won a race *efore it %as %a& si.i#ar resu#ts to t%e favourite an& .ust *e consi&ere&/

(in&ertrac is carrying t%e %eaviest )ena#ty in t%e race an& weig%t .ig%t *e a )ro*#e./ But it is anot%er %orse yet to win a race *ut wit% resu#ts co.)ara*#e to t%e favourite an& %as t%e )otentia# to win t%is one/

Secon&ary 4arning Signs

"ccor&ing to t%e $acing Post t%e &raw %as no effect *ut #ooing at .y .ore &etai#e& ta*#e on )age =A we can see t%at in s)rints #ow nu.*ers are favoure&/ Our %orse is running fro. sta## A an& wi## receive no a&vantage/ Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

<=

%e ocey %as never ri&&en t%is %orse *efore an& t%at counts in our favour as t%e ocey wi## %ave no fee# for t%e %orse in a racing situation/ C!"#%si!"

%ere is one )ri.ary warning sign in our favour? ●

Hig% (#ass Pro*#e. %as never race& on fir. groun& *efore/ %is is t%e %ar&est surface t%ere is an& it .ay not *e to t%e %orse3s #iing/

4e %ave i&entifie& = ot%er %orses in t%e race w%ic% we *e#ieve %ave t%e a*i#ity to *eat t%e favourite/ Fina##y t%ere are two secon&ary warning signs in our favour? ● ●

Ot%er %orses in t%e race %ave t%e *enefit of a *etter &raw/ %e ocey %as not ri&&en t%is %orse *efore/

Hig% (#ass Pro*#e. is anot%er goo& c%oice for a #ay/


<>

THE RESULT

"not%er successfu# #ay as our favourite ca.e secon&/ %e winner (in&ertrac was one of t%e %orses 0 i&entifie& as a .aor t%reat an& so it )rove& wit% a co.forta*#e victory/


<<

CHAPTER 16: LA3ING HORSES ; NATIONAL HUNT ?@U or <-year-o#&s/ ,u.) racing goes on a## year roun& *ut its .ain season runs fro. ove.*er unti# t%e en& of ")ri#/ %ere are 2 .ain ty)es of u.) race1 eac% wit% &ifferent si5e& *arriers/ St''&#'has's ?Chas's - 0n t%ese races t%e %orses are .a&e to u.) 3fences3 w%ic% vary in si5e/ %ese are t%e *iggest o*stac#es a %orse wi## %ave to face/ %e Jran& ationa# is t%e .ost )restigious stee)#ec%ase event in t%e @/+/ H%r$#'s - 0n t%ese races t%e %orses are .a&e to u.) over o*stac#es .easuring a*out = feet ' inc% in %eig%t/

"not%er ty)e of u.) race is P!i"t t! P!i"t Ra's - %ese races are run over fences on &esignate& far.#an& t%roug%out t%e country in t%e S)ring an& "utu.n/ %is is *asica##y t%e nursery for young u.) %orses w%o wi## )rogress to u.) over %ur&#es an& fences/ 4e wi## not *e #ooing at #aying %orses in )oint to )oint races/ 0n u.) racing t%ere are a#so %an&ica)s an& non-%an&ica) races/ Lie on t%e f#at t%ere are &ifferent ty)es of races &e)en&ing on t%e :ua#ity of t%e fie#&/
Ot%er ty)es of races inc#u&e "uction races1 (#ai.ing races1 an& Se##ing races/ 4E DO O L"9 "9 HO$SES 0 HESE $"(ES/ %is is *ecause t%e %orses invo#ve& are a#ways .e&iocre at *est an& it is very %ar& to *e sure of #aying t%e favourite/


CHAPTER 17: STEP 1 ; PRI
G-./G

%e going si.)#y &escri*es w%at t%e groun& con&itions are #ie on t%e course/ %e &escri)tions are as fo##ows %eavy1 soft1 goo&-to-soft1 goo&1 goo&-to-fir. an& fir./ %e going is a very i.)ortant factor in any %orse race/ So.e %orses can run e:ua##y we## on any ty)e of going *ut .any %ave a )reference/ 4%at we are on t%e #oo out for is a favourite w%o %as never run on a )articu#ar going *efore t%is wi## usua##y *e in novice racesI1 or a favourite wit% a )oor recor& on t%at )articu#ar going/ %is %a))ens .ore regu#ar#y t%an you .ig%t t%in/ 9ou3## often see a %orse t%at %as *een in s)ar#ing for. on soft tracs *eing favourite on a fir. surface an& *eing soun&#y *eaten/ " #ot of )unters negate to c%ec even t%is si.)#e factor/ BO@S 0P G %e softer t%e groun& t%e *etter it is for us #ayers/ 0t is we## nown t%at favourites win a %ig%er )ercentage of races w%en t%ere is fir. in t%e groun&/ 0f t%e going is goo&-fir. or fir. t%en we nee& ot%er factors to go in our favour if we are to #ay any %orses/ %e %eavier t%e going t%e .ore ran&o. t%e resu#ts ten& to *e/ BO@S 0P 2 G 4atc% out for a f#at %orse s)ecia#ist u.)ing for t%e first ti.e on soft groun&/ En&urance wi## *e an issue for t%e %orse as it %as not %a& to u.) *efore an& t%e sticy soft groun& wi## test t%e %orse3s sta.ina/

0.*T+/)

"#ong wit% t%e going1 &istance is t%e .ost i.)ortant factor in a %orse race/ 0n u.) racing you &on3t get s)rints *ut t%e races sti## vary in &istance/ So.e %orses are *etter at t%e .e&iu. #engt% races of 2 .i#es w%i#e ot%ers )refer #onger &istances = .i#esQI t%at are a rea# test of sta.ina/ 9ou nee& to *e on t%e #oo out for one of two t%ings/ Eit%er a %orse t%at is ste))ing Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

u) in tri) for t%e first ti.e/ 4%i#st a %orse .ig%t %ave &one we## at t%e .e&iu. &istances if it is racing at a #onger &istance for t%e first ti.e it3s goo& for. can *e :uestione&/ Or secon&#y a %orse t%at %as a )oor recor& at t%e race3s &istance/ For e;a.)#e you .ig%t %ave a %orse wit% e;ce##ent for. over 2 .i#es *ut %as %a& a cou)#e of &o&gy runs over 2 fur#ongs/ e;t ti.e t%e %orse runs 2 fur#ongs it is a )ossi*#e #aying o))ortunity/ BO@S 0P G (onsi&er w%at &istances a %orse %as *een running at recent#y/ Horses are ani.a#s of %a*it an& if you see a %orse running at a &ifferent &istance to its .ost recent runs it cou#& *e a #aying o))ortunity/ Jenera##y s)eaing a &ifference of > fur#ongs is enoug% for us to cast &ou*t over t%e favourite/ Of course t%is wou#&n3t *e c#asse& as a )ri.ary reason to #ay t%e %orse *ut it cou#& *e a su))#e.entary factor w%en &eci&ing w%ic% %orse to #ay/ BO@S 0P 2 G Distance is a )articu#ar warning for a f#at %orse s)ecia#ist u.)ing for t%e first ti.e/ En&urance wi## *e an issue for t%e %orse as it %as not %a& to u.) *efore an& u.) races are usua##y #onger t%an f#at races so t%e %orses3 sta.ina wi## *e severe#y teste&/

L+**

"s seen a*ove t%ere are &ifferent categories of race &e)en&ing on t%e :ua#ity of t%e entrants/ 4%at we are #ooing for is a %orse t%at is .oving u) in c#ass an& racing against *etter o))osition t%an it %as *efore/ 4%at you .ay fin& is a %orse *eing a s%ort )rice& favourite in it3s first con&itions race si.)#y *ecause it won it3s .ai&en co.forta*#y/ However it .ay we## fin& itse#f u) against %orses w%o %ave a#so won t%eir own .ai&ens/ "s we## as races *eing na.e& #ie .ai&ens an& con&itions t%ey are a#so given a c#ass category &e)en&ing on t%e )ri5e .oney avai#a*#e/ %e ta*#e *e#ow su..arises t%e &ifferent c#asses for u.) races?


<

9U&P L+** **T)& C#s 1 Jra&e ' Jra&e 2 inc# #i.ite& %c)s Jra&e = o)en %c)s Liste& C#s 2 O)en %c)s -'>Q C#s , -''<'=< C#s  -'''< C#s 5 -<< C#s 6 Hunt(% W HF

Chas' N' N< N< N2< N2= N2 N' N
N!0Chs H%r$#' N< NA< N=2 N> N>< N2 N22 N' N'> N N>/<- N=/2->/<

N!0H%r NHF#at N> N2< N2 N2

N'

N'< N' N'> N N>/<- N=/2->/< N2/<-=/2

%e #ower t%e c#ass t%e *etter :ua#ity t%e %orses are an& t%e .ore )ri5e .oney avai#a*#e (#ass ' *eing t%e *est %orses an& (#ass ! t%e worst/ 4e are #ooing for %orses w%o are .oving u) in c#ass for t%e first ti.e or %orses w%ic% %ave %a& *a& resu#ts in a certain c#ass/

.R*T T.&) "UR0L)R

0f a %orse is a s%ort favourite on its first run t%en t%at is a great o))ortunity for #aying/ Horses w%o are u.)ing for t%e first ti.e can *e two &ifferent ty)es of %orse/ Eit%er t%ey %ave *een *re& as a nationa# %unt %orse or t%ey are a f#at-*re& %orse u.)ing for t%e first ti.e/ Once again it is i.)ossi*#e to te## %ow a %orse wi## react to it3s first %ur&#e race/ Even if t%e %orse %as *een racing on t%e f#at *efore it wi## %ave e;)erience& not%ing #ie a %ur&#es race *efore/ "gain if a %orse is a s%ort favourite it cou#& si.)#y *e &ue to its sta*#e connections/ Or it .ay %ave *een a %orse wit% goo& resu#ts on t%e f#at an& so auto.atica##y gets favouritis./ BO@S 0P G First ti.e %ur&#ers wi## *e co.)eting in novice %ur&#e events/ %ese are great events for )icing u) va#ua*#e #ays as t%e )u*#ic rea##y %ave no i&ea %ow a %orse wi## tae to %ur&#ing/ Furt%er.ore t%ese races are fu## of ine;)erience& %orses w%o often *ring eac% ot%er &own over t%e o*stac#es/


<

.R*T T.&) "+*)R

0f a %orse is a s%ort favourite on its first c%ase t%en again t%at is a great o))ortunity for #aying/ "ny %orse t%at c%ases wi## %ave *een a %ur&#er at so.e )oint/ But t%e fences in a stee)#ec%ase are a #ot *igger t%an %ur&#es an& even if a %orse is a great %ur&#er it .ay not .ae a great c%aser/ 0f we see a s%ort favourite w%o %as never c%ase& *efore %ave ourse#ves a #aying o))ortunity/ BO@S 0P G First ti.e c%asers wi## *e co.)eting in novice c%ase events/ %ese are great events for )icing u) va#ua*#e #ays as t%e )u*#ic rea##y %ave no i&ea %ow a %orse wi## tae to c%asing/ Furt%er.ore t%ese races are fu## of ine;)erience& %orses w%o often *ring eac% ot%er &own over t%e o*stac#es/

).G"T

%e weig%t t%e %orse is carrying is t%e fina# factor we nee& to assess/ Over u.)s t%is factor is i.)ortant in non-%an&ica)s as we##/ Once a %orse wins a novice event it is a##owe& to co.)ete in ot%er novice races for t%e rest of t%e season/ However it .ust carry a weig%t )ena#ty/ %is gives u) #ots of #aying o))ortunities/ Often a %orse w%o %as one a novice event wi## *e favourite for t%e ne;t race &ue to it3s for./ However .any )unters &o not tae into account t%e e;tra weig%t it is carrying an& *#in&#y *ac it/ Often you wi## see t%ese favourites #osing t%eir ne;t race/ "s wit% f#at racing1 weig%t is very i.)ortant in %an&ica)s/ 4e nee& to &eci&e if t%e weig%t t%e %orse is carrying wi## affect t%e favourite in any way/ One way to &o t%is is to c%ec w%at weig%t t%e %orse %as carrie& in )revious races/ 0f it is carrying significant#y .ore t%is ti.e aroun& t%en t%is wi## *e a :uestion .ar over t%e %orse/ "not%er way is to rea& t%e $acing Post3s s)ot#ig%t ver&ict on t%e %orse3s c%ance in t%e race/ 0f t%e weig%t is going to *e a )ro*#e. t%ey wi## usua##y )oint t%is out/

TR+./)R4* -UR*)./ P)R)/T+G)

%is )ri.ary warning sign is &ifferent to t%e rest in t%at it can warn us off #aying a favourite rat%er t%an *eing a factor in our favour/


!

%is is si.)#y a figure t%at s%ows w%at )ercentage a trainer wins at a )articu#ar course/ 0t can *e a rea##y i.)ortant factor in i&entifying a favourite t%at we s%ou#& not #ay/ Logic &ictates t%at eac% trainer s%ou#& %ave an a*out e:ua# )ercentage for eac% course/ But t%is is not t%e case/ @sua##y a trainer %as at #east one course w%ere it3s %orses &o *etter t%an average an& .ore often t%an not it is t%e course w%ic% is c#osest to t%e sta*#e/ 4%en a %orse is traine& near to a certain course t%e groun& it trains on wi## *e si.i#ar to t%e groun& on t%e race trac &ue to si.i#ar weat%er1 soi# ty)es etc/ %is gives it an i..e&iate a&vantage over t%e rest of t%e fie#& as it is at %o.e on t%ose con&itions/ Furt%er.ore t%e trave##ing ti.e to t%e race trac is s%ort/ Horses are notorious#y te.)era.enta# ani.a#s an& can easi#y *e unsett#e& *y #ong ourneys to t%e trac w%ic% as you wou#& e;)ect worsens t%eir )erfor.ance/ 0 &on3t #ay any %orses w%ere t%e trainer-course )ercentage is over =M/ 0n fact so.eti.es 0 c%ose not to #ay %orses wit% a )ercentage un&er t%is/ For e;a.)#e if t%e trainer of t%e favourite %as a win )ercentage of 2

!'

CHAPTER 1: STEP 2 ; EALUATING THE OPPOSITION "fter carrying out t%e first )rocess of t%e syste. you wi## %ave a #ist of )otentia# favourites to #ay/ %e ne;t ste) is to eva#uate t%e o))osition in t%at race/ 4%at you are #ooing for is at #east one ot%er %orse w%ic% #oos to %ave t%e a*i#ity to *eat t%e favourite/ o &o t%is we :uic#y scan t%e racing %istory for eac% %orse in t%e race searc%ing for at #east one %orse wit% si.i#ar a*i#ity to t%at of t%e favourite/ Of course we &on3t want to s)en& too #ong &oing t%is as we &on3t want to fa## into t%e tra) of s)en&ing %ours rea&ing for./ 4e si.)#y want to fin& %orses wit% si.i#ar race resu#ts to t%at of t%e favourite/ Si.i#ar resu#ts inc#u&es t%e actua# finis%ing )osition of t%e %orse in its )ast races as we## as %ow .any #engt%s it won or #ost *y/ One ru#e 0 stic to is t%at for t%ese riva# %orses to :ua#ify as a )otentia# race winner t%ey cannot %ave .ore )ri.ary warning signs against t%eir na.es t%an t%e favourite/ %e *est way to u&ge a %orse3s a*i#ity is to see %ow it %as )erfor.e& in a certain c#ass/ For e;a.)#e if t%e favourite in a race %as )revious#y won races in c#ass < events1 i&ea##y we want to fin& ot%er %orses in t%at race t%at %ave a#so won c#ass < events/ Or if a favourite %as *een )#ace& *efore t%en we wou#& nee& to fin& ot%er %orses in t%e race w%o %a& *een )#ace& in si.i#ar events to t%e favourite/ %e *est way to un&erstan& t%is as)ect of t%e syste. is to #oo t%roug% t%e )ractica# e;a.)#es 0 wi## tae you t%roug% in a .o.ent/


!2

CHAPTER 1: STEP , ; SECONDAR3 ARNING SIGNS ; @U

%ese factors are not as i.)ortant to t%e outco.e of a race as t%e )ri.ary factors *ut t%ey sti## )#ay a )art an& so nee& to *e taen into consi&eration/

0+* *./) L+*T RU/

%is use& to *e an i.)ortant factor wit%in %orse racing *ut new an& i.)rove& training .et%o&s %ave #essene& its i.)ortance/ 4e nee& to *e on t%e #ooout for a %orse t%at %as not run for ! &ays or is running again wit%in A &ays of it3s #ast run/ 0f a %orse %as not run wit%in ! &ays t%en it %as no &iscerni*#e for. an& it3s t%e sa.e )rinci)#e as a foot*a## )#ayer #acing 3.atc% )ractise3/ However it is i.)ortant to stu&y t%e %orse3s )revious race %istory/ So.e %orses are notorious#y goo& at co.ing *ac fro. a #ong #ay off so if a %orse %as a %istory of t%is we nee& to e;ercise caution/ 0f a %orse runs wit%in A &ays of it3s #ast run it %ere is a c%ance it .ig%t not %ave recovere& fu##y fro. its )revious efforts an& .ay #ac sta.ina/ But again so.e %orses can run we## severa# &ays in a row so c%ec it3s )ast race %istory to *e sure/

.)L0 *.)

%is is si.)#y t%e nu.*er of %orses in a race/ %e %ig%er t%e si5e of t%e fie#& t%e *etter/ %is %as .ore significance over u.)s t%an it %as on t%e f#at/ 4it% ationa# Hunt racing t%e .ore %orses t%ere are ost#ing for )osition over t%e u.)s t%e .ore c%ance t%ere is of %orses *ringing eac% ot%er &own/ Lie on t%e f#at t%is factor is .ore i.)ortant in races w%ere t%ere are ine;)erience& %orses racing toget%er suc% as novice %ur&#es an& novice c%ases/


!=

.* T") +7-UR.T) + L+*T T.&) -UT .//)R8

0f t%e favourite won it3s #ast race t%en t%is wi## guarantee us .ore va#ue in our #ay/ 8ost of t%e )u*#ic over*et a LO winner an& t%is gives t%e favourite #ower o&&s t%an it &eserves/

9-()

So.e %orses run *etter w%en t%ey %ave a certain ocey ri&ing t%e./ %is &oesn3t necessari#y .ean t%at an e;)erience& ocey wi## *e *est/ Eac% ocey %as a &ifferent tec%ni:ue of racing/ So.e #ie to )us% t%eir %orse %ar& w%i#e ot%ers )refer to *e gent#er/ O*vious#y so.e %orses run *etter &e)en&ing %ow t%ey are treate& &uring t%e race/ o :uic#y see if a %orse an& ocey are a goo& )artners%i) g#ance at t%e racing %istory of t%e %orse to see if t%e ocey %as *een )#ace& on t%at %orse *efore/ 0f it %asn3t t%en it is :uite )ossi*#e t%ey &o not wor we## toget%er an& t%is cou#& *e anot%er factor in our favour/ %is is anot%er factor t%at is .ore i.)ortant in ationa# Hunt racing &ue to t%e nature of u.)ing over o*stac#es/ %e ocey an& t%e %orse %ave to *e in tune or t%ere is a %ig% ris t%e %orse wi## fa## or refuse to u.)/

T-P*P))0

On t%e )ost&ata ta*#e %e $acing Post .ae an assess.ent of eac% in&ivi&ua# %orse3s race s)ee&/ 0f t%e favourite %as a to) s)ee& rating #ower t%an A
+G) - T") "-R*)

Horses ten& to u.) *etter t%e o#&er t%ey get/ %e younger %orses %ave .ore eratic resu#ts an& %ave a greater c%ance of fa##ing/ Horses < years o#& an& young get a *#ac .ar %ere/

-R&

(ounter-intuitive#y t%e fina# t%ing 0 c%ec is for./ Jenera##y t%e favourite wi## *e in for. *ut it3s i.)ortant to c%ec anyway/ 4e are not concerne& wit% finis%ing Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

!>

)osition *ut %ow far it won or #ost *y/ 8ost )unters si.)#y #oo at t%e finis%ing )osition *ut we wi## #oo a #itt#e &ee)er/ 4e want to c%ec w%et%er t%e %orse finis%e& wit%in U #engt% )er fur#ong of t%e winner in its #ast 2 runs/ 0f it &i& t%en 0 c#ass t%is as goo& for. if it &i&n3t t%en 0 c#ass t%is as out of for./ %is .eans it is :uite )ossi*#e for t%e favourite to %ave finis%e& 2 n& on it3s )revious two runs an& sti## *e c#asse& as out of for./ Of course if a favourite %as won it3s #ast two runs t%en t%at is consi&ere& very goo& for./ 0f it won t%e races *y .ore t%an U #engt% )er fur#ong t%en 0 consi&er t%is e;ce##ent for./ 0 a#so c%ec t%e for. of t%e %orses in t%e race 0 %ave i&entifie& as )otentia# riva#s to t%e favourite/


!<

CHAPTER 2=: STEP  ; BRINGING IT ALL TOGETHER Once you3ve carrie& out t%e first t%ree ste)s of t%e syste. you .ay %ave a #ist of severa# :ua#ifiers an& you nee& to &eci&e w%ic% one to #ay/ 0 )refer to on#y #ay one %orse a &ay as 0 fin& 0 can get a very %ig% strie rate t%is way/ 0 #ie to use t%e ta*#e *e#ow to co.)are any #ist of :ua#ifiers 0 %ave/ Si.)#y )ut a cross in t%e *o; if t%e warning sign is in our favour an& t%en tota# t%e. u)/ For eac% )ri.ary sign in our favour )ut two crosses in t%e *o;/ However it is i.)ortant to note t%at 0 &on3t necessari#y ust #ay t%e %orse wit% t%e *iggest tota#1 a#t%oug% t%at is genera##y t%e case/ 0 #ie to #oo at t%e *igger )icture/ For e;a.)#e 0 .ig%t #ay a %orse wit% a s.a##er tota# *ecause 0 t%in t%e stan&ar& of o))osition in t%e race is so %ig% t%at it overri&es ot%er factors/ %is wi## tae ti.e for you to )ic u)/ 0 suggest ee)ing trac of a## t%e resu#ts of your :ua#ifiers as t%is wi## %e#) you i.)rove your u&ge.ent/ "s you #ay .ore an& .ore %orses your u&ge.ent wi## i.)rove in #ea)s an& *oun&s/


!!

@%(& Rai"+ PR.&+R +R/./G *.G/*

"orse 1

"orse 2

"orse 3

"orse !

JO0J D0S"(E (L"SS 'S 08E H@$DLE$ 'S 08E (H"SE$ 4E0JH $"0E$

-PP-*.T.-/

HO4 8"9 $0C"LS

*)-/0+R +R/./G *.G/*

D"9S S0(E L"S $@ D$"4 F0ELD S0E LO 40E$ ,O(+E9 OPSPEED "JE OF HO$SE FO$8

O"L


!A

CHAPTER 21: EA
%e a*ove car& co.es fro. a c#ass = %an&ica) %ur&#e at Stratfor& over 2.!f''y on goo&-fir. groun&/ Looing at t%e *etting forecast t%e favourite is Onwar& o J#ory wit% a tissue )rice of ''>/ Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

!

Pri.ary 4arning Signs Looing at t%e Post&ata ta*#e t%ere are no i..e&iate warning signs/ %e %orse %as a tic for *ot% t%e going an& t%e &istance so we %ave to #oo in furt%er &etai# at t%e racing %istory/

4e can see t%at t%e favourite %as never race& in a c#ass = event *efore/ 0t wi## now *e racing against stronger o))osition t%an it %as ever face&/ Fina##y #ooing at t%e trainer3s course-win )ercentage *e#ow we can see t%at t%e favourite3s trainer1 P , Ho**s %as a win )ercentage of 2M/ %is is a re#ative#y %ig% )ercentage *ut #ooing at t%e ot%er trainers3 figures it is not enoug% to scare us fro. #aying t%is %orse/


!

O))osition e;t we %ave to *rowse t%e race %istory of t%e ot%er %orse3s in t%e race to see if we can fin& one wit% si.i#ar a*i#ity to our favourite/

%e $ising 8oon %as a :uestion .ar over t%e going *ut %as a #ot of e;)erience wit% Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

A

racing in %ig% c#ass races an& %as even won a c#ass = %ur&#e *efore/ %is %orse &efinite#y %as t%e a*i#ity to win t%is race/

Harrycat %as one )ri.ary warning sign against it3s na.e G it %as a :uestion .ar over t%e &istance/ But #ie our favourite1 Harry(at %as a#so won a c#ass > %ur&#e *efore *ut .ore i.)ortant#y %as won a c#ass = %ur&#e as we##/ %is %orse is &efinite#y in wit% a c%ance of winning t%is one/

Jae#ic $ou#ette %as no )ri.ary warning signs against it an& is anot%er %orse t%at %as won a c#ass > %ur&#e *efore an& as suc% .ust *e consi&ere& wort%y of winning t%is race/ Betting Secrets [EXPOSED] - How to Lay Favourites for a Living - © 2! "## $ig%ts $eserve&

A'

$ose.auve is carrying t%e *iggest weig%t )ena#ty of a## t%e %orses *ut it %as )erfor.e& we## at t%is weig%t *efore an& it .ay not *e a )ro*#e./ %us %orse #oos #ie a serious c%a##enger as it %as run very we## in c#ass = %ur&#e events *efore/

Secon&ary 4arning Signs Onwar& o J#ory %as not race& for !> &ays an& so %as no &iscerni*#e for./ %ere are '< runners in t%is race w%ic% is a #arge fie#& an& gives us .ore c%ance t%at t%e favourite wi## *e %a.)ere& &uring t%e race/ Onwar& to J#ory was a #ast ti.e out winner w%ic% .eans it wi## *e over*et *y t%e *etting )u*#ic giving us *etter va#ue/ %e ocey P Brennan %as on#y race& on t%e %orse once an& in t%at race t%e %orse was soun&#y *eaten/ %is cou#& .ean t%e two &o not suit eac% ot%er w%ic% is anot%er factor in our favour/ %e $acing Posts to) s)ee& rating for Onwar& o J#ory is on#y AM of t%at of Dr (eru##o an& so t%e favourite .ay strugg#e to ee) )ace/ (onc#usion %ere is one )ri.ary warning sign in our favour?


A2

●

Onwar& o J#ory is ste))ing u) in c#ass for t%is race an& %as not race& aginst t%is :ua#ity of o))osition *efore/

4e %ave i&entifie& > ot%er %orses in t%e race w%ic% we *e#ieve %ave t%e a*i#ity to *eat t%e favourite/ Fina##y t%ere are five secon&ary warning signs in our favour? ● ●

●

● ●

%e favourite %as not race& for !> &ays an& so is out of running )ractice/ %e fie#& si5e of '< is #arge an& t%ere is .ore c%ance t%e favourite wi## *e %a.)ere&/ Onwar& o J#ory was a #ast ti.e out winner an& as suc% wi## give us .ore va#ue/ %e ocey %as on#y run once on t%e %orse *efore an& was soun&#y *eaten %e favourite3s to)s)ee& rating is on#y AM of t%e %ig%est for t%e race an& as suc% .ay strugg#e to ee) )ace//

Onwar& o J#ory is anot%er goo& c%oice for a #ay/


A=

THE RESULT

"s we can see our favourite ca.e fift%/ %e eventua# winner was Harrycat1 one of t%e )otentia# riva#s 0 )ice& out *efore t%e race/ Harrycat was a.a5ing#y )rice& at 2' w%ic% was a ri&icu#ous )rice consi&ering it3s )ast resu#ts/ Sti## t%at &oesn3t concern us/ "## we nee& to to now is t%at t%at we3ve %a& anot%er successfu# #ay/


A>

PART FIE:

A<

CHAPTER 22: LA3ING AT THE RIGHT PRICE 4e %ave &iscusse& %ow to fin& %orses to #ay now we .ust focus on w%at )rice to #ay at/ 0f we are too generous wit% our o&&s we wi## *e &estroying any va#ue we %ave in t%e *ets/ 0t is *est to #ay t%e %orse as c#ose to t%e race start as )ossi*#e/ "roun& M of *ets are )#ace in t%e 6#ives%ow7 )erio& *efore a race/ %is taes )#ace aroun& ' .inutes *efore t%e race starts/ "s we are #aying t%e favourite we are a#.ost guarantee& t%at our %orses3 )rice wi## &rift in t%e .ost/ However so.eti.es we .ig%t fin& t%at our %orse3s )rice &rifts out so .uc% t%at it is no #onger t%e favourite/ 0n t%is instance t%e ot%er )unters %ave o*vious#y rea#ise&1 #ie we &i&1 t%at t%ere are &ou*ts over it3s a*i#ity/ 0n t%is circu.stance it rea##y is u) to you %ow to )rocee&/ 0f you3re convince& t%e %orse won3t win you .ig%t sti## want to #ay it or t%e )rice .ig%t &rift so far out t%at you &on3t want to tae a ris/ 0 %ave a ru#e w%ere 0 &on3t #ay any %orse over

A!

CHAPTER 2,: USING A BETTING BAN9

0t is essentia# to use a *etting *an if you want #ong ter. )rofits/ Every serious )rofessiona# wi## %ave a *etting *an an& use a sensi*#e staing )#an/ So.eone w%o taes a &isci)#ine& a))roac% to *etting wi## a#ways *e .ore )rofita*#e t%an t%e one w%o fo##ows a %a)%a5ar& syste./ Jiven t%at we are #aying favourites we %ave to e;)ect so.e resu#ts to go against us fro. ti.e to ti.e/ Hence our staing )#an .ust *e sensi*#e enoug% to cover any #osses/ 4e want our *etting *an to grow stea&i#y an& in ti.e your *ets wi## *eco.e *igger an& *igger/ Don3t forget it is )ossi*#e to #ose your entire *etting *an if you are care#ess so on#y *et wit% .oney you can affor& to #ose/ 4e want to *e rising

AA

Betfair Betting System How to lay favourites for a living

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