Anonymous (2003)_Natural Time Cycles & Market Timing [2 p.]

Natural Time Cycles and Market Timing Natural time is defined as the interaction of the Earth-Moon-Sun cycles. The theory states markets will repeat themselves directly or inversely relative to the total interaction of the sun, the moon and the earth. They either behave in a very similar fashion from one cycle to another or they invert to a totally opposite pattern. Markets can only invert within the inversion time window, a period of time that repeats with an EXACT frequency. The inversion time window (ITW) begins with the last turn of a period and continues until the second turn in the new series. The ITW is the only place in time an inversion can occur. All market cycles can be defined with FIVE Moon-Sun cycles. The four day cycle: markets repeat directly or inversely every four revolutions of the Earth. Four tropical months (27.32 days): markets repeat directly or inversely every four orbits of the moon around the earth. Twelve synodic months or one lunar year (354.37 days): markets repeat directly or inversely every twelve cycles new moon to new moon. Four tropical years-(365.2422 days per year): markets repeat directly or inversely every four orbits of the earth around the sun. One complete interaction of the sun, the moon and the earth or 19 tropical years: This is the same as one metonic cycle, Metonic Cycle: Every 19.0 tropical years (or 235 synodic months) from the precise date of a full/new Moon, another full/new Moon occurs at approximately the same degree of the ecliptic and about the same date. The ancient Greeks called 19 the golden number as the same lunar phase repeats on the same date every 19.0 years. These five cycles define market cycles. Notice how the four is the dominant number in the cycles. The 19 year cycle times four equals 76 years. There is a defining 76 year pattern in the markets. For example 1929 + 76 = 2005 and the current 19 year cycle final turn is due in the fall of 2004 and we give this cycle a plus or minus 17 months window. These cycles then indicate a 76 year cycle is topping in 2004 and the markets will repeat the 1929 experience. Now look back in time 76 years from 1929 and we get 1853. From 1853 to 1857 America experienced major changes leading to civil war. Now go back another 76 years we have 1777. Beginning in 2005 we are under the same cyclic influences. We will experience the same conditions we experienced in 1777, 1853 and 1929 starting in 2005 or when the final 19 year, four year, one year, four month, four day cycle is completed. Each time period has a defined number of high and low turns and an average date for each turn. To find the average date we average out the previous ten cycles. Each time period also has a plus or minus window before and after the average date. Four day: 4 hours, hours, four months: 4 days, days, lunar year: 4 weeks, weeks, four year: 4 months, months, 19 year: 8 months. A turn high is defined as the highest high between two turn lows. A turn low is defined as the lowest low between two highs. If a turn occurs before the average date the market is in a weak trend position. If a turn occurs after the average date the market has strength of trend.

The INVERSION Time Window (ITW)

The dominant cycle in the SP-500 is the four tropical months or 109 calendar day cycle or approximately 80 trading days. The SP-500 will trade six highs and six lows during this time period. The inversion time window begins after the last turn in the previous series and closes with the second turn of the new series. Once it has been determined turn two is a high or a low the remainder of turns will follow the high-low rotation. If turn two is a high turns 4, 6, 8, 10 and 12 wil also be highs. For an inversion to occur the market begins trading toward the next turn, stalls and drops to an inverse relationship to the previous series. If two was a high after an inversion two is a low. An inversion will occur about 30% of the time and the only warning one may occur is a strength of trend move to the final turn of a cycle. Double bottoms and double tops are usually the result of an inversion. If the last point in a series is early the inversion occurs at the time the average date was due. Here is an example of a turn one inversion There is an example of a turn two inversion in Green.. Normal path in Blue Green Blue..

In the above example turn two would be a high, even turns in the new series will be highs instead of lows like the previous series from April to August.