California Housing Market Update Monthly Sales and Price Statistics June Jun e 201 2018 8
Sales Declined the Most Since August 2014 California, June 2018 Sales: 410,800 Units, -1.1% YTD, -7.3% YTY 700,000 600,000 500,000
Jun-17: 443,120
Jun-18: 410,800
400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 -
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
California Home Sales Continued to Decline for the Second Month Year Year-o -ove verr-Ye Year ar % Chg
6 per. per. Mov. Mov. Avg. Avg. (Yea (Yearr-ove overr-Ye Year ar % Chg) Chg)
25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
Bay Area Sales Dipped for the 1st Time in 5 Months Bay Area Area
6 per. per. Mov. Mov. Avg. Avg. (Bay (Bay Area Area))
30% 20% 10%
. g h c % 0% Y o Y
-10% -20% -30%
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
*Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
Southern California Home Sales Continued to Trend Down YoY % chg.
So CA
6 per. Mov. Avg. (So (So CA) CA)
40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30%
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
*Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
Central Valley Sales Broke the Upward Trend Started since Late 2017 YoY % chg.
Cent Ce ntra rall Vall Valley ey
6 per. per. Mov. Mov. Avg. Avg. (Cen (Centr tral al Vall Valley ey))
30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30%
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
*Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
Sales in the Higher-Priced Market Improve, but the Lower-Price Market Remain Soft JunJun-17 17
JunJun-18 18
30% 23% 24% 20% 15% 15%
15% 13%
14% 13%
14% 11% 11%
12%
10% 7% 5%
0%
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
3% 4%
Sales Declined in Every Segment under $1M June 2018 (Year-to-Year (Year-to-Year)) 20% 13.8%
15% 10%
5.7%
5% 0% -5% -5.1%
-10% -15%
-10.3% -14.7%
-20% -20.2%
-25% -30%
-27.6%
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
-5.3%
CA Median Price Reached a New Record High California, June 2018: $602,760, +0.3% MTM, +8.5% YTY $700,000
P:May-07 $594,530
Jun-17: $555,410
$600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $-
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
T: Feb-09 $245,230 -59% from peak
Jun-18: $602,760
Year-over-Year Price Growth by Percentile Year-over-Yearr Price Growth Year-over-Yea 14% 12.1% 12% 9.6%
10%
9.3% 8.3%
8%
7.0%
7.1%
7.1%
40-60
60-80
8.8%
6.2% 6% 4% 2% 0% 0-20
20-40
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
80-100 Percentile
80-85
86-90
91-95
96-100
Price Growth Remained Strong for both Homes and Condos 50% 40% 30% e 20% c i r P 10% n i . g 0% h C -10% % Y T Y-20%
-30% -40% -50%
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Tow Condo/Townhomes nhomes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Cond Condo o
Sing Single le-F -Fam amilily y Home Homess
Condo/Townhome Median Price Continued to Trend up $600,000
Condo
$500,000 e$400,000 c i r P n$300,000 a i d e M $200,000
Jun-17: $451,450
Jun-18: $482,930
$100,000 $0
5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 0 1 - 0 - 0 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - t - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 l l r r r r y y v r p b l v n n v p n n n n c c g g p b u c y t p b u u a p a p c c u a u o u a u o a u o e e J e a e e J e a e e J e a J J N A S F D M O M A J J N A S F D M O M A J J N A S F D M
SERIES: Median Prices of Existing Condos/Townhomes SOURCE:: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION SOURCE ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
CA Median Price (Existing SFH) Month-to-Month Month-to-Month % Chg 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15%
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Price Per Square Foot Highest since Late 2007 June 2018: $290, Up 1.4% MTM, Up 7.4% YTY $400 $350 $300
. T F . $250 Q S R$200 E P E C$150 I R P
$100 $50 $0
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Jun-17: $270
Jun-18: $290
Sales Price -to-List Price Unchanged June 2018: 100.0%, 0% MTM, 0% YTY 100% o i t a R e c i r P t s i L o t s e l a S
98% 96% 94% 92% 90%
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Jun-17: Jun-18: 100.0% 100.0%
Sales-to-List Price Ratio by Percentile Sales-to-List Price Ratio 100.8%
100.6%
100.6%
100.5%
100.4% 100.2% 100.0%
100. 10 0.0% 0%
100 00..0%
100. 10 0.0% 0%
100. 10 0.0% 0% 100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
1 0 0 .0 %
99.8% 99.6% 99.4% 99.2% 99.0% 98.8% 0-20
20-40
40-60
60-80
80-100 80
80-85 Percentile JunJu n-17 17
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
JunJu n-18 18
86-90
91-95
96-100 96
Total
Time on Market Near Record-Low Level California, June 2018: 15.0 Days 80 70 T60 E K R50 A M N40 O S30 Y A D20
10 0
SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Median Time on Market by Percentile Median Time on Marke Markett 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
19 17
17 15
14
14
0-20
20-40
1 5 15 15
15 15
40-60
60-80
15
14
80-100
14 14
14 14
80-85 Percentile
86-90
JunJu n-1 17
SERIES: Median Time on Market of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
JunJu n-1 18
15
15 15
14
91-95
96-100
Total
Reduced-Price Listings Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 34.8%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.2% Reduced-Price Reduced-Pric e Listings 50%
0%
45%
-1%
40%
-2%
35%
-3%
30%
-4%
25%
-5%
20%
-6%
15%
-7%
10%
-8%
5%
-9%
0% 1/1/2010
-10% 1/1/2011
1/1/2012
1/1 /2 01 3
1/1/2014
Shar Sh are e Re Redu duce ced d
SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
1/1/2015
1/1/2016
Medi Me dian an Re Redu duct ctio ion n
1 /1 /2 01 7
1/1/2 018
Inventory Index Up from 2017 but Remained Tight June 2017: 2.7 Months; June 2018: 3.0 Months 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0
Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Active Listings at Highest Level in more than 2 Years Year-over-Year % Chg 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20%
SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
8.1%
Inventory Index Highest in Millions 8.5
9
7.8
8 7 6 5 4 3
2.8 2.9
2.4
2.9
2.4
2.9
2.5 2.8
2.9
3.2 3.2
3.2 2.3 2.5
2 1 0
JunJun-17 17
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
JunJun-18 18
3.4 3.3
4.1 3.9 2.7
3.0
Housing Supply Improved across the Board, Except for the Sub-$200k Price Segment June 2018 Active Listing 20% 13.5%
13.0% 9.1%
10% 2.9% 0% -10%
-20%
-17.4%
SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
8.9%
8.4% 2.2%
Inventory Increased as Buying Season is Underway 9.0
Bay Area
So CA
Central Valley
8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0
3.3
3.0
2.8
2.0
2.0
1.0 0.0
Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Active Listings by Month Active Listings by Month 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0
2 017
2 018
Active Listings Surged in All Regions June 2018 Sale Saless
Active Active Listi Listing ngss
20%
10% g 10% h C % r a e 0% Y o t r a e Y-10%
10% 7%
-6%
-8% -12%
-20% San Francisco Bay Area SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Southern California
Central Valley
Mortgage Rates Expected to Move Up in 2 nd Half of 2018 January 2010 – July 12, 2018 6 MONTHLY
WEEKLY
4.57
5
4.53
4 3.82
3 2 1 0
SERIES: 30Yr FRM, 5Yr ARM SOURCE:: Freddie Mac SOURCE Mac
FRM ARM
3.86
