The Small Book of Probabilities An unofficial guide to probabilities of Warhammer 8th edition
Contents 1 Movement
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1.1 Charge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Magic
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2.1 Magic winds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1.1 Caster’s numb er of dice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1. 2.1.22 Diffe Differe renc ncee betw between een cast caster er’s ’s and dispe dispell ller er’s ’s nu num mber of dice dice . 2.1.3 Channelling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 Casting and disp elling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 Miscasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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3 Shooting
3.1 Range weapon . . 3.2 Cannon . . . . . 3.2.1 Bounce . . 3.2.2 Grap eshot
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4 Fighting
12 13 13 14 15
4.1 Fleet and pursuit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Tests
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5.1 Leadership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 Characteristic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Introduction During a game of Warhammer Warhammer , players have to make important decisions to lead their army to victory victory.. But to go from a pure pure strate strategy gy to an actual actual battle battle,, dice dice have have to be b e throw thrown! n! Those dice decide the outcome of many aspects of the game and ultimately of the battle: • Will
this unit of Realm Knights successfully charge that unit of filthy Skavens 15 inches away?
• Will
this Fireball spell be successfully cast by a level 1 sorcerer using 2 dice?
• Will
this skilled Elf archer be able to hit his target at long distance?
• Will
this unit of Goblins be able to pass their leadership test even if their battle standard bearer is nowhere in sight?
With so many aspects of the game left to chance, it is of utter importance for good genera generals ls to know know in advanc advancee how how likely likely certain certain even events ts are. are. Knowin Knowingg the probabili probability ty of successfully charging, casting a spell or shooting can turn the battle in your favor. In the following pages, you will find many charts and tables to help you take the best decisions in all situations!
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1
Movement ent
The Movement phase is arguably the phase in which chance chance plays the less part. Indeed, Indeed, most most move movemen ments ts can be made made withou withoutt consul consultin tingg the dice first. first. Howe Howeve ver, r, charg charges es are an important important except exception ion.. To know know if a unit unit can charge charge an other, other, dice have have to be rolled rolled!! Knowing what distance units are likely to cover in charge can change the course of a battle.
1 .1
Charge
The chart below presents the probability to successfully charge depending on the distance separating separating the two two units. Values on the horizontal horizontal axis denotes denotes the distance between between the two units, where M is the movement of the unit charging.
Examples • A
unit of Ogre Ogre Bulls , with movement of 6, has about 40% chance to reach a unit at distance 14 inches (see the M + 8 and Normal column).
• A
unit of Ellyrian Ellyrian Reavers , which have movement 9 and are fast , has more than 90% chance to successfully cover the same 14 inches (see the M + 5 and Fast column).
• A
fast unit which also can reroll its missed charges will have almost 60% chance to charge an enemy at distance M + 10.
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Cheat sheet
The table below presents the distance likely or unlikely covered in a charge. This table is meant for quick access and not for completeness. See the previous chart if you are in need of more details! Mov Movemen ementt Fast ast Rero Reroll llab able le Lik Likely ely ( ≥ 90%) 90%) Risk Risky y (≥ 50%) 50%) Impr Improb obab able le (≤ 10%) no no M M + 4 M + 7 M + 11 M + 6 M + 8 M + 12 no yes yes no M + 5 M + 9 M + 12 M + 7 M + 10 yes yes In the Likely column is indicated the furthest a unit can charge while keeping a high probability of success. In the Risky column, on the other hand, is the furthest a unit can charge while maintaing at least 50% chance of success. Improbable indicates the smallest distance which is reached with probability less or equal to 10%.
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2
Magic
Magic in Warhammer is by nature nature chaot chaotic ic and random random.. The magic magic pha phase se might might be the phase of the battle the most subject to randomness. randomness. It is also the phase that might benefit the most from looking at the probabilitie probabilitiess behind b ehind the dice. Knowing Knowing how many power power dice are likely to be generated and how many such dice one should use for casting and dispelling is very important.
2.1 2.1
Magi Magic c wind windss
Magic winds are responsible for the number number of pow power er dice available available to both players. players. The charts below show how many power dice to expect. 2.1. 2.1.1 1
Cast Caster’ er’ss num number ber of of dice dice
The chart below shows how likely it is to obtain a given number of dice or more.
Examples • In more than 80% of the cases, the caster will have at least 5 dice (see the 5+ column). •
In less than 20% of the cases will the caster have 10 dice or more (see the 10+ column).
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2.1.2 2.1.2
Differen Difference ce between between caster’ caster’ss and dispeller’ dispeller’ss number number of dice
The difference between the number of dice available to the caster and the dispeller also plays plays a significan significantt role. Below Below is the previous previous chart modified to show show the numbers numbers of extra extra dice available to the caster.
Below is shown only the difference between the caster and the dispeller number of dices.
Key takeaways • Most
of the time you will have at your disposition during your own magic phase between 5 and 9 power dice. The mean number of dice available is 7.
•
Many times the dispeller will have have 1 to 3 dice less than the caster. The mean difference is about 2. 2.5 dice. 6
2.1. 2.1.3 3
Chan Channe nell llin ing g
The previous charts did not take into account the fact that each sorcerer can possibly channel an extra power dice. Below is a chart that shows the probability to channel extra dice given your number of casters.
Examples • A
total of 4 casters in the army will channel no extra dice in about half of the magic phases. Only rarely will they channel more than a single dice.
• 2 casters will channel an extra power dice in only about a quarter of the magic phases.
Mean number of dice channelled
Number of casters 1 Mean number of dice channelled 0.1 0.17
2 3 4 5 6 0.33 0.50 0.67 0.83 1.00
Key takeaways • Channeling
a medium to large number of dice is extremely rare.
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2.2
Cast Castin ing g and and dispe dispell lling ing
Knowing how many dice to use to cast or dispel a spell will allow you to have way more effectiv effectivee magic phases. Below Below are charts charts showing showing the probabilit probability y to obtain a given given result when you throw a certain number of dice. Be careful not to forget forget to take take into account the level level of your your caster. For instance, instance, if you need a 10+ to cast a spell with your level 3 sorcerer, you will want to have a look at the column 7. Also note that miscasts are indicated by a darker shade. Using 1 dice
Using 2 dice
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Using 3 dice
Using 4 dice
9
Using 5 dice
Using 6 dice
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2.3 2.3
Misc Misca asts sts
Below is displayed only the probability to have a miscast depending on the number of power dice used.
On the chart below is displayed the probability to have a specific miscast on the miscast table.
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3
Shoo ootting
The shooting phase in Warhammer is very very varie varied. d. In addition addition to the standa standard rd bows, crossbow crossbow and firearms, firearms, heavier heavier weapons such as cannons, cannons, catapults catapults and flamethro flamethrowe wers rs very very often find their way way to the battlefield. battlefield. It is not directly directly obvious obvious how to make the best use of this deadly arsenal. Knowing who or where to shoot at will help you maximize the number of casualties.
3.1 3.1
Rang Range e weapo eapon n
In the chart below you will find the probability to hit a target depending on the result to obtain to successfully hit. Oftentimes, the shooter will be able to reroll if he misses or will be forced to reroll when he hits. The is taken into account in the chart by the lighter columns.
Example • A
shooter with BS of 4 will need a 3 to successfully hit a target in standard setting. This means that the shooter will successfully hit his target in 2 thirds of the case.
• The
same shooter targeting a large target which in addition forces hit to be rerolled will be able to successfully hit in 69. 69 .5% of the cases (see the 2- and rer rerol oll l on hi hit t column).
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3.2 3.2
Cannon
Cannons Cannons are devastat devastating ing weapons present present in many armies. armies. They have have two modes of fire: They can either shoot a single devastating shot which will bounce across the battlefield, or they can use grapeshot and do multiple hits on a single target. 3.2. 3.2.1 1
Boun Bounce ce
The chart below shows the probability to be hit by a bouncing cannon ball depending on the distance to the token placed by the shooter.
Key takeaways • The
point the most likely hit by a cannon ball is 10 inches away from the token.
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3.2. 3.2.2 2
Grapes Grapesho hott
Alternatively, cannons can shoot grapeshot. The number of hits will depend on the skills of the soldiers soldiers manning manning the piece piece of artill artillery ery.. Below Below is shown shown the total total nu numbe mberr of hits hits depending on the result that has to be obtained to hit.
Key takeaways • Depending
on how skillful the team manning the cannon is, you might obtain more hits and eventually wounds using grapeshot. Look at the chart and take into account the difference in strength of the two modes of fire before you make your mind.
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4
Fighting
The last phase of each turn is dedicated to close combat.
4.1 4.1
Flee Fleett and and purs pursui uitt
At the end of a combat, the unit which has lost the fight might be forced to flee in terror, after after being so clearly clearly outplayed outplayed by the enemy. enemy. Below Below is shown shown the probabilit probability y for the unit fleeing to run fast enough and (hopefully) live an other day.
The different columns allow you to distinguish the cases when some units are fast .
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5
Tests
In this section are grouped various tests that can be potentially performed in most, if not all, phases of the battle.
5.1 5.1
Lead Leader ersh ship ip
Many situations on the battlefield will require soldiers to be either particularly discipled or courageous. In those kind of situations, leadership tests are used. Below are shown the probabilities to pass a leadership test depending on the leadership of the unit and whether or not the dice can (or must) be rerolled.
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5.2
Char Charac acter teris isti tic c
In some dire situations, units might required to show their ability to escape certain death. Each figurine might have display its great strength or high ability in order to avoid being killed by a nasty spell for instance. Those kind of situations are resolved using characteristic characteristic tests. The probability to pass such a test is displayed below. On the x-axis is the value of the characteristic and the different columns are used to differentiate the cases when dice can or have to be rerolled.
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