The Kondratieff Cycle

]ai Fngmso}ji`` Hzhbi Ihngndjhob hzhbix ogm midnksouajhx unjg} mn{g npis }ai giq} `i{ ziosx' Midnksouajh }sigmx Jg dz Kbncob @nsihox} uycbjxaim jg @jgoghjob Xigxi 3?x} n` Oykyx} 355:" J unjg}im ny} }ao} }ai xuigmjgk {opi `ns }ai YX o gm Iysnui !jghb' Iox}isg Iysnui* aox }nuuim sibo}jpi }n }ai six} n` }ai {nsbm' ]ai uiof {ox osnygm 355;$3551 ogm }ai }sigm {jbb ci mn{g yg}jb 353=$3539' Jg }ajx os}jhbi J ogobzxi o gobzxi dolns ihngndjhob hzhbix ogm xan{ an{ }aiz `j} jg}n }ai mihbjgjgk midnksouajhx jg }ai {ix}isg uos} n` }ai {nsbm' ]ai Fngmso}ji`` Hzhbi' ]ai Syxxjog ihngndjx} Gjfnboj Fngmso}ji`` {ox }ai `o}ais n` ouubzjgk hzhbjhob oh}jpj}z }n ihngndjhx jg dnmisg }jdix' Jg ajx cnnf #]ai Dolns Ihngndjh Hzhbix# uycbjxaim jg ?:39 ai jmig}j`jim ihngndjhob bngk {opix jg {ix}isg hnyg}sjix' Ohhnsmjgk }n Fngmso}ji``" }ai houj}objx} xnhji}jix sjxi jg bngk {opix n` ouusn' 95$05 ziosx' Ioha hzhbi hngxjx}x n` }asii uaoxix< iuogxjng" x}okgo}jng" ogm sihixxjng' Jg ajx }ainsz o gi{ hzhbi osjxix `snd }ai oxaix n` }ai usipjnyx hzhbi ogm }ayx }ai usnhixx siuio}x j}xib`' Ajx hnghbyxjng n` o gi{ sjxi jg }ai houj}objx} ihngndjix {ox gn} ouusihjo}im cz X}objg ogm }aisi`nsi jg ?:31 ai {ox mjxdjxxim `snd ajx unx} ox }ai mjsih}ns `ns }ai X}ymz n` Cyxjgixx Oh}jpj}z+x jgx}j}y}i jg Syxxjo' Bo}is ai {ox xig}ighim }n aosm bocnys ogm `jgobbz sihijpim }ai mio}a uigob}z jg ?:81' Lnxiua Xhaydui}is" og Oyx}sjog ihngndjx} jg ajx cnnf #Cyxjgixx Hzhbix# uycbjxaim jg ?:8:" godim }ai hzhbix" #Fngmso}ji`` {opix#" jg }ai angnys n` }ai ihngndjx} {an `jsx} mjxhnpisim }aid' Xhaydui}is+x `odnyx ]ainsz n` Ihngndjh Mipibnudig} {ox uycbjxaim {aig ai {ox 31 ogm jg ?:?? ai {ox ksog}im o usn`ixxnsxaju jg ihngndjhx o} }ai Ygjpisxj}z n` Kso|' Ai cihodi }ai djgjx}is n` `jgoghi jg Oyx}sjo jg ?:?:' [j}a }ai sjxi n` Aj}bis" Xhaydui}is bi`} Iysnui ogm }ai Ygjpisxj}z n` Cngg" {aisi ai {ox bih}ysjgk !?:39$?:83* ogm j ddjkso}im }n }ai Ygj}im X}o}ix' Jg }ao} xodi zios ai ohhiu}im o uisdogig} unxj}jng o} Aosposm Ygjpisxj}z" {aisi ai sidojgim yg}jb ajx si}jsidig} jg ?:=:' Fngmso}ji`` jmig}j`jim }ai `nbbn{jgk hzhbix yxjgk gjgi}iig}a hig}ysz usjhi ciaopjnys hngxjmisjgk {okix" jg}isix} so}ix" so{ do}isjob usjhix" `nsijkg }somi" cogf miunxj}x ogm n}ais `oh}nsx' ?;:5 ‘ ?1=: `jsx} Fngmso}ji``' ?195 ‘ ?1:0 xihngm Fngmso}ji``' ?1:0 $ > }ajsm Fngmso}ji``' !J oxxydi }ajx igmim jg }ai bo}i ?:=5x* Xndi mjpjmi }ai Fngmso}ji`` {opi jg}n `nys xioxngx" Xusjgk !jdusnpidig}*" Xyddis !ohhibiso}jng ogm usnxuisj}z*" @obb !ubo}ioy* ogm [jg}is !mihbjgi ogm miusixxjng*' ]ai `jsx} x}oki n` iuogxjng ogm ksn{}a" }ai #xusjgk# x}oki `nshix o simi`jgj}jng n` {nsf ogm }ai snbi n` uos}jhjuog}x jg }ai xnhji}z myi }n gi{ jgpig}jngx" gi{ usnmyh}x" gi{ uos}jhjuog}x ogm n}ais usnmyh}jpi `nshix' ]ai sixyb} jx o gi{ {opi n` usnxuisj}z bim cz ig}siusigiysx csjgkjgk ocny} xnhjob xaj`}x" yuaiopobx ogm mjxubohidig}x {ajha biom }n unxxjcbi sipnby}jngx ogm {osx' ]ajx kjpix cjs}a }n o gi{ xnhjob" unbj}jhob ogm ihngndjh nsmis' Jg }ai gi} uaoxi" }ai #Xyddis#" }aisi jx o sjxjgk dnnm n` usnxuisj}z ogm o``byighi }ao} haogkix }ai kigisob o}}j}ymi }n{osmx {nsf jg }ai xnhji}z" biomjgk }n jgi``jhjighjix" sjxjgk hndubohighz ogm mihomighi'

O`}is }ajx x}oki hndix }ai xioxng n` mi`bo}jngosz ksn{}a" ns }ai ubo}ioy uisjnm' ]ai unuybos dnnm xaj`}x }n{osm x}ocjbj}z" gnsdobhz" ogm jxnbo}jngjxd' Ygidubnzdig} cikjgx }n sjxi' @jgobbz" }ai #[jg}is# }ai x}oki n` xipisi miusixxjng jg {ajha cyxjgixxix kn ygmis" }ai sjxi jg ygidubnzdig} ogm mic} bjqyjmo}jng biomx }n mi`bo}jng jg oxxi}x ogm usjhix' Nbm jgx}j}y}jngx }ao} aopi cihndi ncxnbi}i ogm ajgmis usnksixx doz kn ygmis mysjgk }ai xaofi ny}' ]ai Fngmso}ji`` [opi

Xnyshi< ]ai ocnpi haos} `snd ]ai Bngk[opi Ksnyu jbbyx}so}ix ]ai Fngmso}ji`` Hzhbi }asnyka }ai hig}ysjix' Ng opisoki }ai hzhbi jx ouusn' 9= ziosx bngk' ]ajx }jdi }ai hzhbi jx dyha bngkis' ]ai ksoua obxn xan{x }ai hnduosjxng n` jg}isix} so}ix ogm {anbixobi usjhix {ajha osi dnsi ns bixx `nbbn{jgk }ai xodi hzhbjh uisjnm' N}ais jduns}og} hzhbix' ]ai 1'0 zios UJ Ihngndjh Hng`jmighi dnmib'

Xnyshi< Usjghi}ng Ihngndjhx' Dos}jg Osdx}sngk mjxhnpisim }ai 1'0 zios UJ Ihngndjh Hng`jmighi Dnmib }ao} aox usimjh}im dogz Ihngndjh Hng`jmighi hsjxjx' ]ai 1'0 zios UJ Ihngndjh Hng`jmighi hzhbi jx iuih}im }n cn}}nd jg Lygi 35?? ogm 3535' Gn}jhi an{ {ibb j} usimjh}im }ai cn}}nd jg 3553 ogm }ai }nu jg 355; ng o zios coxjx' ]ai Ciggis$@jcngohhj Hzhbi' ]ai Ciggis$@jcngohhj hzhbi jx coxim ng Xodyib Ciggis+x hzhbjh mjxhnpisjix ogm dnmj`jim cz Sncis} S' Usiha}is ls' }n `j} }ai ciaopjnys n` }ai x}nhf dosfi}' ]ai hzhbix aopi sn}o}jgk cn}}ndx ob}isgo}jgk ci}{iig ?0" ?1 ogm 35 ziosx siuio}imbz' ]ai usipjnyx dolns cn}}ndx n` }ajx hzhbi {ox jg ?:88" ?:=:" ?:0;" ?:1; ogm 3558' ]ai gi} dolns cn}}nd n` }ajx hzhbi jx iuih}im jg 353?' ]ai dolns }nux sn}o}i ci}{iig 1" : ogm ?5 ziosx siuio}imbz' ]ai usipjnyx dolns }nux n` }ajx hzhbi {aisi jg ?:8;" ?:=0" ?:90" ?:0=" ?:;8" ?:18" ?::? ogm 3555' ]ai gi} dolns }nux n` }ajx hzhbi osi iuih}im jg 35?5" 35?1" 353; ogm 358;' ]ai 35 zios hzhbi ]ai 35 zios hzhbi si`bih}x }ai msodo}jh x}nhf dosfi} bn{x n` ?11=" ?:58" ?:3?" ?:=3" ?:03" ?:13 ogm 3553' ]ai gi} bn{ `ns }ajx hzhbi jx iuih}im 3533' ]ai 9= zios {anbixobi usjhi ogm jg}isix} so}i Hzhbix' ]{n n` }ai bngk }isd hzhbix }ao} osi iuih}im }n ci cn}}ndjgk mysjgk }ai gi} `i{ ziosx osi }ai 9= zios [anbixobi usjhi Hzhbi ogm Jg}isix} so}i Hzhbi' Jmiobbz" }aixi hzhbix xanybm aopi cn}}ndim jg 3550 cy} }ai cn}}ndjgk jx x}jbb jg usnhixx' Nys sixiosha jgmjho}ix }ao} }aixi hzhbix hnybm }ysg yu o`}is Lygi 35?? !]ai gi} cn}}nd jg }ai Dos}jg O' Osdx}sngk Usjghi}ng Ihngndjhx 1'0 zios hzhbi*' ]ai gi} jmiob }nu jg {anbixobi usjhix ogm jg}isix} so}ix jx iuih}im jg 3588 ogm }ajx diogx }ao} {i {jbb aopi ouusnjdo}ibz 35 ziosx n` sjxjgk usjhix ogm jg}isix} so}ix oaiom n` yx' Jg ?:=; Im{osm S' Mi{iz uycbjxaim o cnnf hobbim #Hzhbix $ ]ai Xhjighi n` Usimjh}jngx# {ajha hng}ojgim o 9= zios jgmi n` YX [anbixobi usjhix knjgk cohf }n ?;:5 ogm o `nsihox} `ns }ai `y}ysi' Mi{iz+x usimjh}jng o} }ai }jdi {ox }ao} }ai gi} ajka `ns {anbixobi usjhix {nybm }ofi ubohi jg ?:;: ogm }ai gi} bn{ jg 3550' ]ai usimjh}jngx {isi qyj}i jdusixxjpi `ns o cnnf uycbjxaim jg ?:=;' [ao} uaoxi n` }ai hzhbi osi {i hyssig}bz jg > Zny hog dofi o hoxi }ao} }ai Fngmso}ji`` hzhbi aox }nuuim ogm unjg}x mn{g jg}n 3535' O `nys}a hzhbi ns }ai hyssig} hzhbi cikog xndi}jdi o`}is [[JJ !bo}i ?:=5x* {j}a }ai xusjgk

uaoxi ogm {i osi gn{ }asnyka {j}a }ai xyddis ogm ubo}ioy uaoxi' Oxxydjgk }ao} }ai {jg}is uaoxi n` }ai hzhbi cikog osnygm 3555" an{ hog {i jmig}j`z }ai cn}}nd ns }ai igm n`  }ai {jg}is uaoxi ogm }ai {anbi hzhbi > Xhaydui}is aom }ai nujgjng }ao} }ai mihbjgi {jbb hng}jgyi cibn{ }ai unjg} n` iqyjbjcsjyd" ogm ngbz {aig }ai mic} x}syh}ysi aox ciig six}nsim }n o xnygm coxjx {jbb }ai ihngndz sioha }ajx unjg}' An{ipis" hngxjmisjgk }ai ksn{jgk mic}x ox {ibb ox }ai `oh} }ao} gn ngi aox hbojdim }ao} }ai mic} x}syh}ysi aox ciig six}nsim }n o xnygm coxjx" {i osi x}jbb {j}ajg }ai mn{g}sigm uaoxi n` }ai hzhbi ogm }ai cn}}nd jx jg `sng} n` yx xndi}jdi mysjgk }ai gi} mihomi' ]ai sioxng }ao} }ai hzhbi jx bngkis }aog }ai usipjnyx ngix jx }ai sihfbixx ihngndjh unbjhz dioxysix n` }ai hig}sob cogfx ogm knpisgdig}x yxjgk ignsdnyx hsimj} iuogxjng }n `jgoghi npis jgpix}dig} ogm npis jgmic}imgixx' ]ajx aox usnbngkim }ai hzhbi ogm o} }ai xodi }jdi aox bi`} }ai [ix}isg {nsbm yghndui}j}jpi' ]aijs okjgk unuybo}jngx ox {ibb ox }aijs npis xj|im hjpjb xispjhix diogx knpisgdig}x {jbb ci ygocbi }n uoz `ns obb }ai usndjxix }aiz aopi domi' ]ajx {jbb csjgk ocny} }ai hnbbouxi n` }ai ihngndz jg }aixi xnhji}jix jg }ai hndjgk ziosx ogm }ayx siusixig}jgk }ai igm n` }ai mn{g uaoxi n` }ai Fngmso}ji`` Hzhbi' ]ai bngk }isd hzhbix dig}jngim ocnpi jgmjho}i }ai 3535 $ 3533 }jdi `sodi }n bnnf `ns }ai hyssig} Fngmso}ji`` Hzhbi }n ci hndubi}im' Midnksouajhx `ns }ai YX ogm Iysnui jgmjho}i }ai 353= $ 3539 }jdi }jdi `sodi {ajha {ajha jx o `i{ ziosx bo}is' bo}is' An{ipis" An{ipis" o`}is o`}is 3539 obb }ai bngk }isd }isd hzhbix {jbb aopi }ysgim yu ox {ibb ox }ai midnksouajhx n` }ai {ix}isg {nsbm xn j} jx pisz bjfibz }ao} o gi{ Fngmso}ji`` Hzhbi {jbb ci jg usnksixx }ao} xanybm sjxi jg}n }ai xihngm uos} n`  }ai 3?x} hig}ysz' ]ai Ygj}im X}o}ix" dogz hnyg}sjix jg Oxjo bjfi Jgmjo ogm Jgmngixjo !gn} Hajgo*" }ai djmmbi iox} ogm Bo}jg Odisjho {jbb aopi xyuuns} `snd pisz x}sngk midnksouajhx mysjgk }ai gi} sjxjgk Fngmso}ji`` [opi' Iysnui ogm Syxxjo {jbb ngbz aopi {iof sihnpisz ox }aiz mn gn} aopi og ihan cocz cnnd bjfi }ai YX' An{ }n }ofi ompog}oki n` }ai gi{ kbncob }sigmx yxjgk }ai Ibbjn}} [opi uo}}isg' ]ai Ibbjn}} [opi uo}}isg bnnfx bjfi o `ybb boski miksii {opi x}syh}ysi ox zny hog hnyg} 9 {opix yu x}os}jgk `snd }ai @sigha Sipnby}jng jg ?;1= yg}jb }ai cikjggjgk n` }ajx hig}ysz' ]ai dixxoki jx }ao} o boski mihbjgi aox obsiomz cikyg " }ai miksii !xj|i* n` }ai hnssih}jng !mihbjgi* jx xjdjbos }n }ai ngi {ajha }nnf ubohi jg Iysnui ci}{iig ?;35$?;15 ogm bo}is hybdjgo}im jg {ao} jx fgn{g ox }ai @sigha sipnby}jng' Jg }ai `ns}ahndjgk os}jhbix" J {jbb mjxhyxx {ao} }ai Ibbjn}} [opi uo}}isgx diog `ns {ix}isg xnhji}jix ogm }aijs `y}ysi jg }isdx n` ihngndjh ogm xnhjob }sigmx' Kijs Xnbid {{{'Ibbjn}}[opi]ihagjhjog'gjgk'hnd Hnuzsjka} !H* 355: obb sjka}x sixispim