R5 6>25
IMKFBM QCUCKJ Tol Cjvlst`ljt Kutmkkh Akr @bgkr ^rkplrty @brhlts
DCUEMBC@LV
Akrlebsts bjd prkgletckjs rlibrdcji tol mchlmcokkd ka vbrckus sletkrbm, `brhlt bjd cjvlst`ljt kutek`ls brl oypktoltcebm cj jbturl, dk jkt rlamlet betubm cjvlst`ljt rlsumts bjd brl jkt iubrbjtlls ka auturl rlsumts. EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs' emcljts `by obvl bequcrld prkplrtcls cj tol sletkrs bjd rlickjs dlsercfld cj tocs rlslbreo rlpkrt. Cj bddctckj, EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs cs ekjtcjukusmy `brhltcji tk jlw emcljts tobt wcmm cjvlst cj prkplrtcls wctocj tol sletkrs bjd rlickjs ekvlrld. EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs @cddml Lbst Mc`ctld prkvcdls tocs `btlrcbm kj flobma ka EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs. EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs @cddml Lbst Mc`ctld cs rliumbtld fy tol Dufbc Acjbjecbm Ulrvcels Butokrcty. Tocs `brhltcji `btlrcbm cs cjtljdld kjmy akr ^rkalssckjbm Emcljts (bs dlacjld fy tol DAUB), jk ktolr plrskjs sokumd bet upkj ct. ^bst kr prkgletld plrakr`bjel cs jkt jlelssbrcmy b rlmcbfml cjdcebtkr ka auturl rlsumts.
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25
YLMEK@L TK IMKFBM QCUCKJ QCUCKJ C katlj bsh `yslma ca wl ebj–t ebj–t ilt sk`l ujb`fciukusmy ujb`fciukusmy ikkd jlws. Ucjel tol stbrt ka tol ylbr, tol tol Gbpbjlsl lekjk`y obs surild, Eocjlsl wbil irkwto obs beelmlrbtld, bjd tol \.U. aldlrbm fudilt dlacect obs sorujh. \jb`fciukusmy ikkd jlws; Bppbrljtmy jkt. ^lrobps prlgudceld fy acvl ylbrs ka Imkfbm Acjbjecbm Ercscs bjd b dcsbppkcjtcji rlekvlry, tol prkijkstcebtkrs obvl cdljtcacld b dbrh scdl tk lbeo kjl ka tolsl lvljts. Briubfmy tol fciilst lekjk`ce jlws ka tol ylbr obs fllj tol socat cj sljtc`ljt bjd tol rlvcvbm ka tol rlbm lekjk`y cj Gbpbj. Gbpbj. Batlr flcji `crld cj rlelssckj rlelssckj bjd abmsl stbrt stbrt rlekvlrcls akr twk dlebdls, dlebdls, tol wkrmd–s wkrmd–s tocrd mbrilst jbtckjbm lekjk`y cs lxplrcljecji b pbmpbfml eobjil wcto tol cjtrkduetckj ka Bfljk`ces. B ikvlrj`ljt prkirb` tk rl-cjambtl tol lekjk`y obs ekjtrcfutld tk tol Slj abmmcji fy `krl tobj 6>%. Ekjvcjeld tobt tocs wcmm `bhl lxpkrts `krl ek`pltctcvl bjd drcvl ekrpkrbtl prkactbfcmcty, tol Gbpbjlsl stkeh `brhlt cs up sobrpmy sobrpmy sk abr tocs ylbr. Bjd ct–s jkt gust lxpletbtckjs. lxpletbtckjs. Tol jbtckj–s ID^ irlw irlw bt b 5.< plreljt bjjubm rlbm rbtl cj tol acrst qubrtlr, suppkrtld fy ekjsu`ptckj irkwto bjd lxpkrts tk tol \.U. Uurl, Gbpbj cs obrdmy kut ka tol tol wkkds7 Fuscjlss cjvlst`ljt cjvlst`ljt jllds tk pceh up, up, wbils jlld tk irkw bs c`pkrt c`pkrt prcels cjerlbsl, bjd ^rc`l @cjcstlr Bfl `ust bddrlss strueturbm cssuls torkuio dlrliumbtckj. Fut bjytc`l tolcr lekjk`y irkws abstlr tobj tol Utbtls, bjd beelmlrbtls bs Eocjb ekkms, cs b ebusl akr tol Gbpbjlsl tk elmlfrbtl. Fut cs tol wkrmd elmlfrbtcji; elmlfrbtcji ; Jkt ljtcrlmy. @cxld cj wcto tol olbdmcjls ka Gbpbj–s bppbrljt turjbrkujd obs fllj objd-wrcjicji bfkut tol torlbts. Slj–s Abmm Bcds Gbpbj, Ykrrcls Ktolrs. Gbpbj prkduels ocio vbmul bddld ikkds. Uk dkls Ukuto Hkrlb. Bjd sk dkls Ilr`bjy ― tol socjcji stbr cj Lurkpl. B `krl ek`pltctcvl Gbpbj wcmm eobmmljil tolsl ekujtrcls– lxpkrts. Ct `by lvlj okmd fbeh ktolr Bscbj jbtckjs tobt brl trycji tk `kvl up tol vbmul-bddld `bjuabeturcji eobcj. Berkss tol slb, slb, Eocjlsl wkrhlrs obvl obvl sllj tolcr wbils wbils beelmlrbtl. beelmlrbtl. Toly rksl 24 plreljt cj 6>26, suppkrtcji suppkrtcji dkufml dcict rltbcm sbmls ibcjs. Eocjlsl ekjsu`lrs brl ilttcji b mbrilr smcel ka tol pcl, cj mcjl wcto tol ikvlrj`ljt–s bttl`pts tk rlfbmbjel tol lekjk`y tk fl `krl ekjsu`ptckj krcljtld. Fut wobt–s tol olbdmcjl; Vcscji Ybils ^ksl Dcml``b akr Eocjb. Ociolr mbfkr eksts eut cjtk prkactbfcmcty. Bjd Eocjlsl lxpkrt prkduetckj prkduetckj ekumd fl mlss ek`pltctcvl, ek`pltctcvl, pbrtceumbrmy pbrtceumbrmy vumjlrbfml tk mkwlr ekst Bscbj bmtlrjbtcvls. bmtlrjbtcvls . Ociolr vbmul bdd ikkds ekumd fl torlbtljld fy b rlscmcljt Gbpbj. Cj tol \.U., tol fci surprcsl surprcsl cs tol rbpcdmy sorcjhcji sorcjhcji Aldlrbm dlacect. dlacect. Ociolr tbx rbtls, bj uptceh uptceh cj tol lekjk`y bjd b suricji stkeh `brhlt brl drcvcji cjerlbsld tbx rlvljuls. Aldlrbmmy-fbehld Aldlrbmmy-fbehl d `krtibil biljecls brl fljlactcji ark` tol rlsuriljt okuscji okuscji `brhlt. Bjd slqulstrbtckj spljdcji spljdcji euts brl hcehcji cj. Tol rlspkjsl cj tol prlss; Bj c`prkvcji aldlrbm acsebm sctubtckj rl`kvls tol sljsl ka uriljey tk dlbm wcto mkjilr-tlr` eobmmljils. ^ktljtcbmmy ib`l-eobjicji fudilt fbttmls wcmm fl dlmbyld. Tol ujelrtbcjty bfkut mkji-tlr` tbx bjd spljdcji pkmcecls wcmm drbi kj. C elrtbcjmy dkj–t wbjt tk sll Hkrlbj bjd Ilr`bj lxpkrts dlemcjl, Eocjlsl ek`pbjcls flek`l ujprkactbfml kr B`lrceb–s strueturbm acsebm eobmmljils drbi kj wctokut rlskmutckj. Fut tol wkrmd cs abr flttlr kaa wcto b rlcjvcikrbtld Gbpbj ekjtrcfutcji tk imkfbm irkwto. B `krl prksplrkus Eocjlsl ekjsu`lr cs eruecbm akr tobt lekjk`y tk rlfbmbjel. Bjd b sorcjhcji \.U. dlacect, jk `bttlr okw obpobzbrdmy bttbcjld, `kvls tol Utbtls cj tol rciot dcrletckj. C–` okpcji wl ilt jlws ark` Lurkpl skkj. Jlws tobt cs sk surprcscjimy ikkd tobt pujdcts wrcji tolcr objds kvlr ct. Kjmy tolj wcmm C allm ekjacdljt tol wkrmd obs `kvld flykjd tol IAE.
Dkui Olrzfruj Imkfbm Olbd ka Vlslbreo
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25
IMKFBM QCUCKJ R5 6>25
TBFML KA EKJTLJTU
IMKFBM LEKJK@CE K\TMKKH .............................................. ..................................................................... .................................... ............. IMKFBM DCVLET CJQLUT@LJT @BVHLT
2
............................................. ..................................................................... .......................... 5
IMKFBM \JMCUTLD A\JDU @BVHLT
.............................................. ...................................................................... ............................. ..... <
IMKFBM MCUTLD ULE\VCTCLU & DLFT
.............................................. ...................................................................... ............................. ..... 9
VLT\VJ AKVLEBUTU .............................................. ...................................................................... ................................................ ............................... .......
3
JKVTO B@LVCEB
\JCTLD UTBTLU ......................................... ................................................................. ................................................. .................................... ........... 22
L\VK^L
\JCTLD HCJIDK@ .................................................................... ............................................................................................. ........................... .. 25 ILV@BJS ................................................ ......................................................................... ................................................. .................................... ............ 2< AVBJEL ................................................ ......................................................................... ................................................. ....................................... ............... 29 JLTOLVMBJDU.................................................................. .......................................................................................... .................................... ............ 23 U^BCJ.......................................................... .................................................................................. ................................................. .................................. ......... 62
BUCB ^BECACE ^BECACE
GB^BJ................................................................... ............................................................................................ ................................................ ....................... 65 EOCJB .............................................. ....................................................................... ................................................. ........................................... ................... 6< B\UTVBMCB ............................................ .................................................................... ................................................ ........................................ ................ 69 OKJI HKJI .................................................... ............................................................................ ................................................. ........................... .. 63 UK\TO HKVLB ...................................... ............................................................... ................................................. ....................................... ............... 52
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25
IMKFBM LEKJK@CE K\TMKKH
Tol `bgkr lekjk`ce stkry cj 6>25 obs fllj tol stbrtmcji rlfkujd cj cjvlstkr bjd ekjsu`lr sljtc`ljt cj . Fkto tol Jchhlc 66< bjd ekjsu`lr ekjacdljel brl bt tolcr ociolst mlvlms scjel 6>>9, bjd tol Slj obs abmmlj kvlr 2<% bibcjst fkto tol Lurk bjd tol Dkmmbr. (Aciurl 2) Okwlvlr, tol Tbjhbj `bjuabeturcji survly bjd cjdustrcbm prkduetckj brl stcmm ekjtrbetcji8 tol rltbcm survly bjd rltbcm sbmls brl stcmm smuiicso8 bjd wocml fuscjlss sletkr ekjacdljel cs jlbr rlekrd ocios, wl obvl jkt sllj b `lbjcjiaum cjerlbsl cj ocrcji…ylt. (Aciurl 6.) @krlkvlr, wocml tol 2> ylbr Gbpbjlsl Ikvlrj`ljt Fkjd dcd cjctcbmmy abmm ark` >.?% tk >.4% ct obs obs scjel rcslj rcslj fbeh tk tobt mlvlm. Bjd, kjel yku strcp kut tol c`pbet ka tol pmbjjld rcsl cj tol ekjsu`ptckj tbx cj 6>24, cjdlx-mcjhld GIFs brl kjmy prcecji cj cjambtckj ka 2% cj 6>2<, bibcjst Bfl–s Bfl–s tbrilt ka 6%. Yl brl bmsk `cjdaum tobt ct wcmm tbhl `lbjcjiaum strueturbm rlakr` ka tol Gbpbjlsl suppmy scdl tk ljd dlambtckj. Beekrdcjimy, Beekrdcjimy, tol ebutckusmy kptc`cstce akrlebst akr b wlbh rlekvlry cj Gbpbjlsl irkwto cj 6>24, sokwj cj Aciurl 5, sll`s pmbuscfml. Crkjcebmmy, Crkjcebmmy, plrobps tol `krl scijcacebjt c`pbet ka Bfljk`ces obs fllj kutscdl Gbpbj, wolrl b ju`flr ka eljtrbm fbjhs obvl eut rbtls tk kaaslt tol jlibtcvl c`pbet kj tolcr lxpkrtlrs ka tol Slj–s sobrp abmm. Yl–vl sllj euts euts cj Hljyb, Csrblm, ^kmbjd, Lstkjcb, Jlw Wlbmbjd, Frbzcm, Ukuto Hkrlb bjd tol Lurkzkjl scjel tol mbst ldctckj ka Imkfbm Qcsckj, bjd bmm fut tol Lurkzkjl kpljmy ectld eurrljey `kvl`ljts bs b `bgkr rlbskj tk eobjil. Lvlj cj tol tol Lurkzkjl, Lurkzkjl, wolrl dk`lstce lekjk`ce wlbhjlss elrtbcjmy gustcacls mkkslr `kjltbry pkmcey, tol eljtrbm fbjh ikvlrjkr ocjtld bt tol pksscfcmcty ka jlibtcvl dlpksct rbtls ― b `kvl cjtlrprltld fy `bjy bs bj bttl`pt tk vlrfbmmy tbmh dkwj tol Lurk. Tol lxelptckj tk tol trljd tkwbrd mkkslr `kjltbry pkmcey obs fllj , wolrl pkmcey`bhlrs pkmcey`bhlrs obvl fllj stueh fltwllj ekjtcjuld wlbhjlss cj tol `bjuabeturcji `bjuabeturcji lxpkrt sletkr bjd b rbpcdmy rlambtcji okuscji `brhlt. (Aciurl 4) Ylbhlr lekjk`ce irkwto cs tk fl lxpletld icvlj Eocjlsl pkmcey`bhlrs– mbudbfml jlw rlmuetbjel tk `bjbil biirlibtl dl`bjd fy pu`pcji erldct vcb stbtl-kwjld fbjhs bjd mkebm ikvlrj`ljt fbmbjel sollts cjtk cjarbstrueturl dlvlmkp`ljt bjd bjd rlbm lstbtl. lstbtl. Utcmm, tol mlibey mlibey ka gust sueo b pu`p prc`cji cj 6>>3-6>2> cs b erldct pksctckj tobt cs rbtolr kpbqul, rbtolr mbril, bjd tous b pktljtcbm rcsh tk auturl irkwto. Tobt sbcd, ca tol jlw trljd rbtl ka Eocjlsl irkwto cs rlbmmy e9-?%, tol akrlebsts sokwj cj Aciurl 5 brl
jkt bs fbd bs suiilstld rlmbtcvl tk tol jkw cjbpprkprcbtlmy ocio mkji-tlr` bvlrbil.
Fbeh tk , bjd tol LEF rbtl eut wcmm obvl mcttml c`pbet kj `kjltbry ekjdctckjs cj tol Lurkzkjl icvlj tol ekjtcjuld sobrp dlmlvlrbicji tobt cs flcji ljdurld, pbrtceumbrmy cj tol tol Ukuto. Tol eljtrbm eljtrbm kutmkkh kutmkkh rl`bcjs akr rlelssckj cj 6>25 bjd b wlbh rlekvlry cj 6>24. Tol dkwjscdl rcsh rlmbtld tk wlbhlr Lurkzkjl `l`flrs flcji akreld kut ka tol Lurk obs sobrpmy dc`cjcsold okwlvlr, bjd lvlj tol Eyprckt fbcm-kut obs jkt rlvlrsld tol trljd ka jkr`bmczcji Ukutolrj Lurkzkjl fkjd yclmds. Tol `kst cjtlrlstcji qulstckj cs woltolr tol Jkrto ebj rl`bcj rlscmcljt tk tol dlmlvlrbicji bjd wlbh c`pkrt dl`bjd ark` tol Ukuto. jbrrkwmy Aciurl < sokws tobt wocml lsebpld b tleojcebm rlelssckj cj R2 6>25, tol ocio arlquljey cjdcebtkrs mkkh skat dlspctl rlekrd mkw ujl`pmky`ljt bjd wobt cs, fy Ilr`bj stbjdbrds, b arktoy okuscji `brhlt. Cjdustrcbm prkduetckj obs fllj ekjtrbetcji akr b ylbr, bjd ebpbecty utcmczbtckj cs abmmcji. Ykrsl stcmm, tol Gbpbjlsl dlvbmubtckj pksls b dcsprkpkrtckjbtl torlbt tk Ilr`bjy icvlj cts ocio ID^ sobrl cj tol trbdbfml ikkds sletkr. Beekrdcjimy, Beekrdcjimy, kjl ekumd briul tobt Ilr`bjy jkw obs b mbrilr dkwjscdl rcsh tk cts eljtrbm lekjk`ce akrlebst tobj bjy ka tol Ukutolrj Lurkplbj jbtckjs. Kvlr tk bjd tol rleljt ocio arlquljey dbtb obs fllj `bricjbmmy flttlr tobj lxpletld, bmtokuio tol eljtrbm akrlebst rl`bcjs akr b `ldcu`-tlr` bustlrcty-mld dlmlvlrbicji tobt hllps irkwto pcjjld tk e2% kvlr tol jlxt acvl ylbrs. Bmtokuio tol baamuljt Ukuto-Lbst wcmm abrl flttlr, wcto l`pmky`ljt irkwto abstlr tobj cj tol ktolr rlickjs, ct wcmm rl`bcj `brhldmy wlbhlr tobj cts kwj ocstkrce trljd, bjd tolrlakrl tkk smkw tk pkwlr b typcebm pkst-rlelssckj suril cj keeupclr dl`bjd. Acjbmmy, , kjel tol jlbr-tlr` acsebm drbi ka tol Ulqulstlr obs fllj trbvlrsld, akrlebsts brl akr b rkfust okuscji-mld rlekvlry cj lekjk`ce irkwto ark` 6>24. (Aciurl 1) Icvlj tobt tol \UB cs tol `bgkr `brhlt wcto tol `kst pksctcvl lekjk`ce akrlebst, ct sokumd bmsk mkicebmmy fl tol `brhlt wolrl fkjd yclmds bjd pkmcey rbtls rbtls stbrt tk jkr`bmczl jkr`bmczl acrst. acrst. Okwlvlr, tol Ald wcmm fl rlmuetbjt tk rbcsl rbtls bolbd ka tol eurvl icvlj tol c`pbet tocs wkumd obvl kj tol Dkmmbr bjd \U lxpkrts. Beekrdcjimy, Beekrdcjimy , tol \UB ekumd oct b swllt spkt cj 6>24-6>2< ka b strkji rlbm lekjk`ce rlekvlry bjd `kjltbry pkmcey tobt cs stcmm beek``kdbtcvl rlmbtcvl tk tobt strljito. IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 2
IMKFBM LEKJK@CE K\TMKKH ― EOBVTU
ACI\VL 2 E\VVLJES 2 E\VVLJES B^^VLECBTCKJ, 2/2/25 tk 2>/25 Bibcjst tol tol \U Dkmmbr
Bibcjst tol tol Lurk
@bjuabeturcji
<% >% -<% -2>% -2<% -6>% \UB
L\V
EJS
EBD
ACI\VL 67 GB^BJ - TBJHBJ EKJACDLJEL U\VQLSU
B \D
HVY
IF^
G^S
Fuscjlss slrvcels
Vltbcm
4> 5> 6> 2> > -2> -6> -5> -4> -<> -1> >> >2 >6 >5 >4 >< >1 >9 >? >3 2> 22 26 25
Ukurel7 Vlutlrs
Ukurel7 Fbjh ka Gbpbj
ACI\VL 57 IMKFBM ID^ AKVLEBUTU, % S/S
ACI\VL 47 EOCJB ― F\UCJLUU EKJACDLJEL U\VQLSU
6>26
6>25 A
6>24 A
MT Bvlrbil
^rcvbtl Ule tk tkr Ek `p `pbjcls
2>%
2<>
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24>
1%
25>
4%
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6%
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Vlbm Lstbtl Ek`pbjcls
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?> 9> >> >2 >6 >5 >4 >< >1 >9 >? >3 2> 22 26 25 Ukurels7 Lekjk`cst Cjtlmmciljel \jct & @kkdy–s Bjbmytces. Ekujtrcls rbjhld mlat tk rciot fbsld kj 6>25A rlmbtcvl tk mkji-tlr` bvlrbil.
Ukurel7 Jbtckjbm Furlbu ka Utbtcstces, Eocjb
ACI\VL <7 <7 ILV@BJS ― F\UCJLUU EKJACDLJEL U\VQLSU
ACI\VL 17 17 \UB ― OK\UL ^VCELU & VLTBCM UBMLU, % S/S
@bjuabeturcji
Fuscjlss Ulrvcels
Vltbcm
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Okus Okusl l ^rc ^rcel elss (ml (mlat at obj objd d bxc bxcs) s)
Vltb Vltbcm cm Ubml Ubmlss (rc (rcio iott objd objd bxcs bxcs))
6<% 6>% 2<% 2>% <% >% -<% -2>% -2<% -6>% -6<%
6> 2> > -2> -6> -5> -4> -<> >6 >5 >4 >< >1 >9 >? >3 2> 22 26 25 Ukurel7 Lurkplbj Ek``cssckj
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Ukurels7 Ebsl-Uocmmlr Ek`pksctl-6> O^C, \U Dlpbrt`ljt ka Ek``lrel
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 6
IMKFBM DCVLET CJQLUT@LJT @BVHLT
Jkw tobt brl cj, wl ebj sll tobt cjstctutckjbmmy olmd prkplrty pkrtakmcks dlmcvlrld b tktbm rlturj ka 9.4% cj 6>26, cj mcjl wcto tol mkji-ruj bvlrbil bjd, bs kjl wkumd lxplet, scttcji fltwllj lquctcls bjd fkjds. Vlbm lstbtl lquctcls kutplrakr`ld akr rlbskjs lxpmbcjld cj tol Mcstld Uleurctcls sletckj. Cjtlrlstcjimy, Cjtlrlstcjimy, dcrletmy olmd prkplrty rlturjs wlrl frkbdmy tol sb`l bs ujmcstld aujds, sokwcji tobt tol c`pbet ka mlvlrbil wbs b wbso bt tol imkfbm mlvlm, bmtokuio beerltcvl cj tol \UB bjd Bscb-^becace, fut jlibtcvl jlibtcvl cj Lurkpl. Lurkpl. (Aciurl 2) Dlspctl tol splecace `berk cssuls cj Lurkpl, ct cs cjtlrlstcji tk jktl tobt Lurkplbj rlturjs wlrl jkt `brhldmy wlbhlr tobj tol Imkfbm bvlrbil, wcto tol strkjilr Jkrtolrj Lurkplbj `brhlts kaaslttcji tol plrakr`bjel plrakr`bjel cj tol tol Ukuto. Tol rbjil ka rlturjs obs bmsk ek`l cj sobrpmy scjel 6>>? tk 6>2>, suiilstcji tobt ekujtry bmmkebtckj cs mlss c`pkrtbjt jkw tobj sletkr bjd pkrtakmck splecaces. (Aciurl 6) Aciurls 5 bjd 4 sokw tobt wl ebj frkbdmy spmct imkfbm dlvlmkpld `brhlts cjtk twk irkups. Cj tol acrst, ebpctbm vbmuls obvl rlfkujdld strkjimy scjel tol trkuio trkuio ka tol `brhlt. `brhlt. Jkrto B`lrceb, B`lrceb, bjd Uwldlj obvl fljlactld ark` sustbcjld `berk-lekjk`ce rlekvlrcls bjd Bustrbmcb ark` cts lxpkrt tcmt tkwbrd Bscb rbtolr tobj Lurkpl. Yctocj Lurkpl tol twk ekujtrcls tobt okusl tol mbrilst `kst mcqucd sbal obvlj `brhlts ― tol \H bjd Arbjel ― obvl plrakr`ld flst.
Fy ekjtrbst, cj tol slekjd irkup ka `brhlts ebpctbm vbmuls obvl jkt ylt rlfkujdld, wcto Upbcj tol wkrst ka tol dcstrlssld Ukutolrj Lurkplbj `brhlts. Yctocj Bscb, Gbpbj dcd jkt rlicstlr ibcjs bt tol dcrlet prkplrty mlvlm cj 6>26, bjd tol cjtlrlstcji qulstckj akr 6>25 cs woltolr, bjd okw qucehmy, vbmubtckjs kj ujdlrmycji rlbm lstbtl ebj ebteo up tk tol c`pmcld VLCT prcecji. B `krl dltbcmld mkkh mkkh bt tol 6>26 rlturjs sokws sokws ociomy vbrcbfml plrakr`bjel berkss prkplrty typls rbtolr tobj tol strkji ekrrlmbtckjs sllj cj, `kst jktbfmy, EFD kaacel `brhlts, cj 6>>?6>2>. Aciurl < sokws tobt ^brcs bjd Mkjdkj kutplrakr`ld tolcr wcdlr jbtckjbm `brhlts, wcto strkji yclmd ek`prlssckj drcvcji ebpctbm vbmul irkwto. Fut cj Arbjhaurt bjd Tkhyk, tol cjerlbscji suppmy ka bvlrbil qubmcty kaacels mld tk ebpctbm ebpctbm vbmul abmms. Cj tol \UB, \UB, Aciurl 1 sokws tobt Jlw Skrh, Mks Bjilmls bjd Ybsocjitkj, Ybsocjitkj, D.E. ujdlrplrakr`ld, ujdlrplrakr`ld, wocml tol fci stkry wbs tol kutplrakr`bjel ka Okustkj bjd Btmbjtb.
Mkkhcji bolbd, kur olbdmcjl tktbm rlturj akrlebsts brl brl sokwj kj pp 3-2>. Cj iljlrbm, iljlrbm, wl tocjh rlturjs cj tol \UB bjd Bscb-^becace rlickj wcmm kutpbel toksl cj Lurkpl. Mkkhcji bt splecace `brhlts bjd sletkrs, wctocj , wl lxplet tol Jkrto tk fl frkbdmy stbfml rbtolr tobj sllcji aurtolr ibcjs7 wl brl lvlj stbrtcji tk sll sk`l rlscstbjel tk aurtolr yclmd ek`prlssckj cj Ilr`bjy, dlspctl tol strkji ekjtcjuld ebpctbm cjamkws. Akr pkkrlr qubmcty bsslts bjd tol `brhlt cj Upbcj bjd Ctbmy cj iljlrbm, wl brl sllcji bj beelmlrbtckj cj wrctl-dkwjs. Cj , ebpctbm vbmul irkwto cs stcmm pksctcvl akr mkji-mlbsld bsslts, bjd tolrl rl`bcjs ekjscdlrbfml bppltctl akr bsslts cj Mkjdkj suf—`brhlts wolrl ErkssVbcm cjarbstrueturl c`prkvl`ljts brl lxpletld tk drcvl cjerlbsld keeupclr dl`bjd. ^rc`l sokppcji eljtlr vbmuls brl bmsk cjerlbscji kj tol fbeh ka trbjsbetckjbm lvcdljel. lvcdljel . Fy ekjtrbst, vbmubtckjs brl stcmm abmmcji akr rltbcm pbrhs wolrl vbebjey cs ocio. Cj , wl lxplet tk sll ebpctbm vbmul irkwto drcvl tktbm rlturjs ociolr cj tol mkicstces sletkr wolrl keeupclr `brhlt aujdb`ljtbms obvl vcscfmy c`prkvld. Yl brl sllcji `krl tljtbtcvl scijs ka c`prkvl`ljt cj tol kaacel `brhlt, bjd wkrrycjimy, jk rlbm eobjil cj tol dl`bjd akr rltbcm bsslts. Cj tlr`s ka prcecji, tol fcd-bsh sprlbd rl`bcjs wcdl wcto fuylrs bjd slmmlrs rlbetcji tk aujdb`ljtbms bjd sljtc`ljt rlspletcvlmy. Cj , bs cj Gbpbj, vbmubtckjs brl lxpletld tk cjerlbsl bs tol abmmcji ekst ka acjbjel suppkrts mkwlr yclmds bjd tol rlekvlry cj tol okuscji `brhlt fkksts dl`bjd akr elrtbcj rltbcm akr`bts. Okwlvlr, bs cj tol \H bjd \U, wlbhlr rltbcm akr`bts brl lxpletld tk sll aurtolr wrctl-dkwjs. Cj , wl obvl sllj ekjtcjuld fut mlss rbpcd bpprlecbtckj cj tol vbmubtckjs ka ekrl bsslts, wcto mkw dlft eksts olmpcji tk suppkrt prc`l yclmds tobt brl bmrlbdy ocstkrcebmmy mkw. ^lrobps tol `krl cjtlrlstcji stkry wcmm fl tol irbdubm dlemcjl cj tol prc`l-slekjdbry yclmd ibp, pbrtceumbrmy cj tol c``ldcbtl jlxt tclr kaacel `brhlts. (Tol ibp obs bmrlbdy vbjcsold cj tol `umtc-ab`cmy `umtc-ab`cmy sletkr.) Tol ktolr ktolr sli`ljt tobt ekumd sll b rkfust rl-prcecji cs tol mciot cjdustrcbm sletkr tobt okusls s`bmm fuscjlssls. Fy ekjtrbst, rltbcm ekjtcjuls tk mbi tol rlekvlry dul tk cjvlstkr albrs bfkut tol strljito ka ekjsu`lr fbmbjel sollts bjd tol ujelrtbcjty bfkut tol c`pbet ka kjmcjl rltbcmcji.
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 5
IMKFBM DCVLET CJQLUT@LJT @BVHLT ― EOBVTU ACI\VL 27EK@^BVBTCQL 27EK@^BVBTCQL BUULT VLT\VJU TK DLE-26
2 ylbr
5 ylbrs
ACI\VL 67 DCVLET ^VK^LVTS ^KVTAKMCK VLT\VJU, % SS
< ylbrs
<>%
@cj
@bx
Imkfbm
^bj-Lurkplbj
5>%
4>%
6>%
5>%
2>%
6>%
>%
2>%
-2>%
>%
-6>%
-2>%
-5>% Vlbm lstbtl lquctcls
Lquc Lquctc tcls ls
Dcrl Dcrlet etmy my olm olmd d rlbm lstbtl
\jmcstld aujds
Ikvlrj`ljt fkjds
-4>% >> >2 >6 >5 >4 >< >1 >9 >? >3 2> 22 26
Ukurels7 C^D Imkfbm Cjdlx, EFVL Embrckj Uleurctcls
Ukurel7 C^D @umtc-Jbtckjbm Dcilst
ACI\VL 57 EB^CTBM 57 EB^CTBM QBM\LU VLFBULD TK 2>> BT ^LBH
ACI\VL 47 EB^CTBM QBM\LU VLFBULD TK 2>> BT ^LBH
26>
2>> Ebjbdb +6>%*
22>
Uwldlj +2>%
2>>
Arbjel +9%
3>
Bustrbmcb +9%
?>
Imkfbm +9%
9>
\UB +24% \H +1%
1> >9
>?
>3
Ukurel7 C^D Imkfbm Cjdlx `brhlt.
2>
22
Ukurel7 C^D Imkfbm Ectcls Dcilst
?>
Ctbmy -25%
9>
Jlto. -25%
Cjek`l rl rlturj
Imkfbm +9%
1>
Gbpbj -66%
<>
Upbcj -63%
4>
Crlmbjd -19%
5> >9
ACI\VL <7 KAACEL <7 KAACEL TKTBM VLT\VJU, % S/S BT DLE-26 Ebpctbm ir irkwto
Ilr`bjy -9%*
26
*Eu`umbtcvl eobjil scjel tol trkuio ka tol
26% 2>% ?% 1% 4% 6% >% -6% -4%
3>
Tktbm rl rlturj
>?
>3
2>
22
26
Ukurel7 C^D Imkfbm Cjdlx *Eu`umbtcvl eobjil scjel tol trkuio ka tol `brhlt
ACI\VL 17 17 \U TKTBM VLT\VJU, % S/S, BT DLE-26 6>% 2?% 21% 24% 26% 2>% ?% 1% 4% 6% >%
Ukurel7 C^D \UB Dcilst
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 4
IMKFBM \JMCUTLD A\JDU @BVHLT
Cj tol rlickj, tolrl obs fllj b jktbfml cjerlbsl cj tol ju`flr ka aujds ek`cji tk tol `brhlt bjd bjd tol lbsl ka rbcscji ebpctbm. ebpctbm. Cj tol slekjdbrcls `brhlt, bsslts brl stcmm rlmbtcvlmy eolbp bs ekrl obs ylt tk rl-prcel cj tol rlickj. Cj , sljtc`ljt cs arktoy, bjd aujd acjbjecji cs ocstkrcebmmy vlry eolbp, wcto tol bmm cj ekst ka dlft jkw bt e2% acxld akr 9 ylbr mkbjs kj dleljt qubmcty pkrtakmcks. Icvlj tobt yclmds cj tol dcrlet `brhlt obvl ylt tk `kvl cj, tocs `lbjs tobt lvlj wctokut bj Bfljk`ces drcvlj c`prkvl`ljt cj rljtbm irkwto, tol yclmd prl`cb brl bttrbetcvl bjd tol ebso-kj-ebso rlturj cs cj dkufml-dcicts. dkufml-dcicts . Okwlvlr, tobt ibp wcmm jbrrkw bs dcrlet `brhlt vbmubtckjs emksl tol ibp kj tol c`pmcld yclmds cj tol VLCT `brhlt.
dlpmkyld. Tocs wcmm jk dkuft drcvl prcecji ka ekrl bsslts bs tol ylbr prkirlssls.
bmsk mkkhs bttrbetcvl icvlj tobt prkplrty yclmds obvl jkt stbrtld tk abmm cj tocs eyeml wocml tol ekst ka acjbjecji cs abmmcji kj eljtrbm fbjh pkmcey pkmcey rbtl rbtl euts. Tolsl euts brl fljlactcji tol okuscji `brhlt bjd rlmbtld rltbcm bjd mkicstces akr`bts cj pbrtceumbr. Cj tolsl sletkrs kjl ebj fuy cjtk pkrtakmcks wcto ujdlrmycji yclmds cj tol ?-2>% rbjil wcto bj bmm cj ekst ka dlft dlft tobt cs flmkw <%. B sc`cmbr yclmd yclmd prl`cu` kvlr aujdcji eksts briu`ljt `bhls mkicstces cj Okji Hkji bjd Eocjb mkkh bttrbetcvl bs wlmm. Turjcji tk tol , Aciurls 2 bjd 6 sokw aujd rlturjs obvl dlelmlrbtld bs ebpctbm bpprlecbtckj bpprlecbtckj obs tbplrld kaa. Bs b rlsumt, prlslrvcji kr ljobjecji JKC irkwto cs tol `bgkr akeus ka bttljtckj. Cj tol prc`bry `brhlt, tolrl wbs b jktbfml c`prkvl`ljt cj aujd rbcscji rbcscji cj O6 6>26. Yocml `kst aujds emksld kj mlss tobj tolcr krcicjbm tbrilts tocs wbs stcmm flttlr tobj toly `ciot obvl albrld cj O2. Tobt sbcd, aujd krcicjbtckj obs fllj b `cjkr stkry ek`pbrld tk tol rcsl ka tol strueturld dlbm. dlbm. Tocs cs typcebmmy typcebmmy `ktcvbtld `ktcvbtld fy b `bturl pufmce pmbj dcscjvlstcji ark` rlbm lstbtl. Ocstkrcebmmy, aujd ka aujd cjvlstkrs wkumd obvl fkuiot toksl stbhls kj b ebsl fy ebsl fbscs, fut tkdby wl brl sllcji jkj-trbdctckjbm skurels ka ebpctbm cjvlstcji bt b pkrtakmck mlvlm cj ek`pmlx GQ/prla lqucty typl strueturls bt dllp dcsekujts tk JBQ. Cj tol `krl ekjvljtckjbm slekjdbry `brhlt, tol cjerlbsl cj mcqucdcty obs fllj `bricjbm, bmtokuio tol fcd-bsh sprlbd cs bt mlbst jbrrkwcji. jbrrkwcji. Ljtry qululs tk ekrl kplj-ljdld kplj-ljdld aujds rl`bcj ocstkrcebmmy ocio wcto e\U$1fj stcmm wbctcji tk fl ebmmld kj tkp ka tol \U$1fj tobt wbs ebmmld mbst ylbr bjd `by jkt obvl ylt fllj
Dlft acjbjel obs flek`l lvlj eolbplr, bs wl dcseuss cj tol jlxt sletckj, bjd tocs cs bmsk suppkrtcji vbmuls cj tol dcrlet `brhlt. Cj tol `lzzbjcjl spbel, wl obvl sllj pksctckjs tbhlj bt up tk 3<% cj tol ebpctbm stbeh cj `umtc-ab`cmy dlvlmkp`ljt, bs kjl lxtrl`l lxb`pml. Turjcji tk , Aciurls 5 tk < sokw tobt plrakr`bjel obs ujsurprcscjimy fllj strkjilst cj tol rlscmcljt Jkrto, wcto ekjtcjuld vbmubtckj abmms drbiicji dkwj plrakr`bjel cj tol Ukuto. Tolsl wrctl-dkwjs brl lxpletld tk ekjtcjul cj 6>25. Cj tol prc`bry `brhlt, aujd-rbcscji rl`bcjs dcaaceumt bjd `kst dlbms brl GQs bjd emuf dlbms. Yl brl jkt ylt sllcji b pceh-up cj kppkrtujcstce aujds tbriltcji Upbcj bmtokuio tobt cs lxpletld cj 6>24. @krl kptc`cstcebmmy, tol `brhlt akr slekjdbrcls cs smkwmy flek`cji `krl mcqucd, bmflct olbvcmy dcsekujtld. dcsekujtld . Lvlj ikkd qubmcty aujds brl trbdcji bt b <-2>% dcsekujt tk JBQ, wocml aujds wcto bjy hcjd ka rcsh brl trbdcji bt b 6<-<>% dcsekujt tk JBQ. Tobt sbcd, kppkrtujcstce fuylrs brl flek`cji `krl betcvl, bjd prcecji dcsekujts brl ilttcji s`bmmlr ek`pbrld tk 1 `kjtos bik. Vldl`ptckj qululs kj kplj-ljdld aujds obvl cjerlbsld bs cjvlstkrs lxpmkct tolcr kjmy bvljul akr mcqucdcty. Tol bvlrbil bmm-cj ekst ka dlft akr aujds `kjctkrld fy kur @umtc-@bjbilr tlb` obs ldild dkwj ark` <.6% cj 6>>3 tk 4.1% cj 6>26 fut tol wcdl pkmbrcty fltwllj acjbjecji cj tol Jkrto bjd Ukuto ekjtcjuls. Kvlr tol mbst qubrtlr, wocml tol Ukuto rl`bcjs tkuio, mljdcji ekjdctckjs bjd eksts obvl stbrtld tk c`prkvl cj tol Jkrto. Cj tol , tol pkpumbr sletkrs brl Mkjdkj kaacels tbhcji bdvbjtbil ka tol ErkssVbcm cjarbstrueturl c`prkvl`ljts, bjd mkji-mlbsl aujds tbriltcji 6<-5> ylbr cjek`l strlb`s. Tol qululs tk ljtlr tol mbttlr rl`bcj mkji7 ujsurprcscjimy icvlj tol sufstbjtcbmmy bfkvl bvlrbil aujd rlturjs dlmcvlrld cj 6>26. (Aciurl 1) Ulekjdbry `brhlt mcqucdcty bjd prcecji cs c`prkvcji berkss tol fkbrd. Ikkd slekjdbry qubmcty aujd dcsekujts obvl jbrrkwld ark` e2<% tk e9% wocml fbmbjeld aujds bjd mkjimlbsld aujds aujds trbdl bt e<% prl`cb. Tolrl brl sk`l rldl`ptckj qululs ekjeljtrbtld cj prkfml`btce aujds. Okwlvlr, `krl iljlrbmmy, cjvlstkrs brl rldlpmkycji ebpctbm ark` ekrl kplj-ljdld aujds cjtk vbmul-bdd strbtlicls.
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | <
IMKFBM \JMCUTLD A\JDU @BVHLT - EOBVTU ACI\VL 27 \U EKVL K^LJ LJD IVKUU VLT\VJU, S/S Cjek`l rlturj
Bpprlecbtckj
ACI\VL 67 \U QBM\L BDD IVKUU VLT\VJU, S/S
Tktbm rlturj
Cjek`l rlturj
Bpprlecbtckj
Tktbm rlturj
4>%
5>%
5>%
6>%
6>%
2>%
2>%
>%
>%
-2>%
-2>%
-6>%
-6>%
-5>%
-5>%
-4>%
-4>%
-<>%
-<>% >> >2 >6 >5 >4 >< >1 >9 >? >3 2> 22 26
>> >2 >6 >5 >4 >< >1 >9 >? >3 2> 22 26
Ukurel7 JAC-KDEL Lqubm Ylciot kplj-ljdld aujd cjdlx
Ukurel7 JEVLCA-Tkwjsljd Qbmul-wlciotld vbmul-bdd emksld-ljd aujd cjdlx
ACI\VL 57 L\VK^LBJ EKVL A\JD VLT\VJU, S/S
ACI\VL 47 L\VK^LBJ QBM\L BDD A\JD VLT\VJU, VL T\VJU, S/S
Cjek`l Vlturj
Ebpctbm Irkwto
Tktbm Vlturj
Cjek`l Vlturj
6>%
5>%
2<%
6>%
2>%
Ebpctbm Irkwto
Tktbm Vlturj
2>%
<% >%
>%
-<%
-2>%
-2>%
-6>%
-2<%
-5>%
-6>% -6<%
-4>% >2
>6
>5
>4
><
>1
>9
>?
>3
2>
22
26
>2 >6 >5 >4 >< >1 >9 >? >3 2> 22 26
Ukurel7 CJVLQ
Ukurel7 CJVLQ
ACI\VL <7 <7 L\VK^LBJ TKTBM VLT\VJU FS @BVHLT, % S/S BT DLE-26
ACI\VL 17 17 \H A\JD ^LVAKV@BJEL BT @BVEO 6>25
2 yr
5 yr
Bjjubm Tktbm Tktbm Vlturj
? 1
9
4
1
6
<
>
4
-6
5
-4 -1 -?
Rubtlrmy Tktbm Tktbm rlturj
6 2 > Mkw Ilbrld Bmm Fbmbjeld Fbmbjeld Aujd Aujd
Ukurel7 CJVLQ
Dcstrcfutckj Sclmd
Uplecbmcst Aujd
Mkji Cjek`l Aujd
Dcrlet ^rkplrty
Ukurel7 C^D \H ^kkmld ^rkplrty ^rkplrty Aujd Cjdlx
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 1
IMKFBM MCUTLD ULE\VCTCLU & DLFT
Cj tol 26 `kjtos tk ljd @breo, prkvcdld bttrbetcvl dkufmldcict tktbm rlturjs cj lvlry rlickj, flbtcji tol plrakr`bjel ka tol wcdlr lqucty `brhlt bjd tol ikvlrj`ljt fkjd `brhlt. (Aciurl 2). Tocs wbs drcvlj fy mkwlr plrelcvld rcsh cj tol Lurkzkjl, kptc`cs` brkujd Bfljk`ces cj Gbpbj, cjerlbscjimy beek``kdbtcvl eljtrbm fbjh pkmcey imkfbmmy, bs wlmm bs aujdb`ljtbm c`prkvl`ljts cj tol vbmubtckjs ka tol ujdlrmycji rlbm lstbtl bjd strkji lbrjcjis irkwto. Kj b rlickjbm fbscs, rlturjs cj Gbpbj obvl fllj stlmmbr, up kvlr 9>% y/y, fut tol ktolr `bgkr Bscb-^becace `brhlts obvl bmsk plrakr`ld plrakr`l d wlmm. Ekjtcjljtbm Lurkpl bjd tol \H ekjtcjul tk mbi icvlj tol wlbhlr keeupclr `brhlt aujdb`ljtbms bjd `krl trkufmld acjbjecbm `brhlt fbehdrkp. Bjd tol \U ju`flr stcmm rlamlets tol wlbhjlss cj O6 6>26 bs ujelrtbcjty brkujd acsebm pkmcey tkkh cts tkmm. Cj 6>25, lqucty `brhlts obvl bpplbrld tk fruso kaa tol hcjd ka `berk-pkmctcebm ujelrtbcjty bjd fbd jlws tobt `ciot obvl slt prcels abmmcji b ylbr bik, sueo bs tol Eyprckt fbcm-kut bjd \U Ulqulstlr. Tocs cs bj ljekurbicji scij ka b mlss rcsh-bvlrsl cjvlstcji ljvcrkj`ljt bs wlmm bs tol trljd tkwbrd mkkslr `kjltbry pkmcey bs dcseussld cj kur Lekjk`ce Kutmkkh sletckj. sletckj. Tol hly qulstckj cs woltolr tol kptc`cs` obs ikjl tkk abr cj Gbpbj, wolrl lquctcls brl prcecji cj vbmubtckj yclmds tobt brl e2>>fps mkwlr tobj tol dcrlet prkplrty, bmtokuio tol ujdlrmycji ekrpkrbtl keeupclr `brhlt obs ylt tk `lbjcjiaummy c`prkvl. Tocs cs bmsk sokwj cj Aciurl 6 wolrl tol prl`cu` tk JBQ bt ljd@breo wbs 41%, up ark` 29% bt ljd-Gbj. Bs dcseussld cj kur \jmcstld Aujds & Gbpbj sletckjs, wl allm tobt tol dcrlet `brhlt wcmm `kvl tkwbrd tol lqucty `brhlt c`pmcld vbmubtckjs kvlr tol ekursl ka 6>25 bjd 6>24. Aciurl 5 sokws tobt mcstld rlbm lstbtl sleurctcls stcmm prkvcdl bj bttrbetcvl dcvcdljd yclmd prl`cu` kvlr ikvlrj`ljt fkjds cj bmm rlickjs. Tobt prl`cu` obs wcdljld kvlr tol mbst qubrtlr bs fkjd yclmds obvl cj `kst ebsls abmmlj. Tobt sbcd, ctct cs rbrl akr tol dcvcdljd dcvcdljd yclmd yclmd prl`cu` tk fl tol prc`bry drcvlr ka cjvlst`ljt akr b sustbcjld plrckd, bjd bs rcsh-bvlrsckj bfbtls, wl ekumd fl `kvcji cjtk b plrckd wolrl aujdb`ljtbms ― lbrjcjis irkwto, `bjbil`ljt qubmcty, bsslt qubmcty lte ― flek`l `krl c`pkrtbjt drcvlrs ka bmmkebtckjs. bmmkebtckjs.
Tol acrst qubrtlr bmsk sbw b pceh-up cj C^K betcvcty cj tol twk `kst absockjbfml sletkrs ― Gbpbjlsl mkicstces bjd Ilr`bj rlsc. ^rkmkics spuj kaa cts Gbpbjlsl pkrtakmck cjtk tol e$2fj Jcppkj ^rkmkics, bjd MLI C``kfcmclj C^K–d cts 3>,>>> bpbrt`ljt pkrtakmck. Yl bmsk sbw cjerlbsld @&B betcvcty cj Jkrto B`lrceb. Trcpml-jlt mlbsl ek`pbjy Upcrct Ebpctbm `lrild wcto tol prcvbtlmy kwjld VLCT Ekml ^rkplrty Trust CC cj b $9.2fj trbjsbetckj. Mbf spbel VLCT Fck @ld Vlbmty bmsk bjjkujeld cts bequcsctckj ka Ylxakrd Uecljel & Tleojkmkiy akr $14>`. Cj tol , tol \U cs tol aurtolst tkwbrd jkr`bmczbtckj, wcto fkto betcvcty bjd prcecji rlsuriljt. Uljckr mljdcji obs rlekvlrld akr ikkd qubmcty bsslts bjd aciurls 4 torkuio 1 sokw tobt `krtibil fkjd yclmds bjd E@FU sprlbds brl bt b dlebdl mkw, bjd E@FU cssubjel, bt $6>fj cj R2 6>25, cs bt cts ociolst mlvlm scjel 6>>9. Tol prkfml` prkfml` cs tobt tol tol BBBrbtld spbel obs sllj sk `ueo cssubjel, wcto cjsurbjel ek`pbjcls ek`pltcji wcto fbjhs, tobt tol acxld cjek`l cjvlstkrs obvl jkw acmmld tolcr krdlrs. Beekrdcjimy, cssulrs brl obvcji flttlr mueh cssucji mkwlr-rbtld dlft tk cjvlstkrs stcmm oujiry akr yclmd rlmbtcvl tk brtcacecbmmy supprlssld ikvlrj`ljt fkjds. \.U. `lzzbjcjl obs bmsk flek`l cjerlbscjimy ek`pltctcvl, wcto dlft cj tol <<% tk ?<% MTQ rbjil rlturjcji plrobps ? tk 2>% wolrl b ylbr bik kjl `ciot obvl lxpletld 22% tk 26.<%. Tolrl cs stcmm dl`bjd bt tolsl mkwlr rlturjs okwlvlr, bs toly rlprlsljt ikkd vbmul icvlj tobt tol ujdlrmycji bsslts obvl fllj bdlqubtlmy wrcttlj dkwj. @krl wkrrycjimy, wl brl stbrtcji tk sll sk`l ”styml drcat‐ bs aujds mbujeold prk`cscji ociolr CVVs tobj brl jkw beoclvbfml, `kvl cjtk ociolr mlvlrbil trbjeols ka `lzzbjcjl dlft kr cjtk E@FU F-pclels. Tol ekjtcjuld strkji cjvlstkr prlalrljel akr `umtc-ab`cmy dlft rlamlets trljds wl brl sllcji cj tol dcrlet bjd ujmcstld aujd sletkr. Cj ekjtrbst, cjtlrlst cjtlrlst cj kaacel kaacel dlft cs spkttclr. spkttclr. Tolrl cs b allmcji tobt tol upturj cj tol oktlm sletkr obs ruj cts ekursl bjd tobt b mkt ka prkduet cs flcji cssuld, lsplecbmmy cj tol mc`ctld slrvcel sletkr, wolrl kjl obs tk fl lxtrl`lmy slmletcvl. Cj Lurkpl, E@FU cssubjel obs ylt tk rlturj, fut wl brl sllcji sc`cmbr trljds cj tol `lzzbjcjl spbel, wcto pktljtcbm CVVs ek`cji dkwj bs tol spbel flek`ls `krl erkwdld bjd sk`l styml drcat wctocj tol acrst iljlrbtckj aujds jkw obvcji tk cssul sljckr dlft tk iljlrbtl tol `lzzbjcjl dlft. IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 9
IMKFBM MCUTLD ULE\VCTCLU BJD DLFT - EOBVTU ACI\VL 27 26@ TVBCMCJI TKTBM VLT\VJU, 5/52/6>25
Mcstld Vlbm Lstbtl
@bcj Cjdlx
ACI\VL 67 MCUTLD ^VK^LVTS ULE\VCTCLU JLT BUULT QBM\L ^VL@C\@/DCUEK\JT FS VLICKJ
Fkjds
?>% 9>% 1>% <>% 4>% 5>% 6>% 2>% >%
52st 52st @bre @breo o 6>2 6>25 5
52st 52st Gbju Gbjubr bryy 6>2 6>25 5
2> Slbr Slbr Bvlr Bvlrbi bil l
<>% 4>% 5>% 6>% 2>% >% -2>% -6>% -5>%
Ukurels7 U&^, @UEC, G^ @kribj, rlturjs cj mkebm eurrljey
Ukurels7 Abetslt & Fmkk`flri, bs ka >5/52/6>25 *Bvlrbil scjel Dle 6>>4
ACI\VL 57 ^VK^LVTS LR\CTS DCQCDLJD SCLMD U^VLBD KQLV IKQT FKJDU
ACI\VL 47 ABJJCL @BL \U @KVTIBIL FLJEO@BVH SCLMDU
Dcvcdljd yclmd
Eurrljt Uprlbd
MV Bvlrbil Uprlbd
5 > yr
2 > yr
6 yr
9%
1% <% 4% 5% 6% 2% >% -2% -6% -5%
1% <% 4% 5% 6% 2% >% >5
>4
><
>1
>9
>?
>3
2>
22
26
Ukurel7 AbetUlt bjd Fmkk`flri, bs ka >5/52/6>25
Ukurel7 Vlutlrs
ACI\VL <7 <7 \U E\@\MBTCQL DLFT KAALVCJIU, \UDfj
ACI\VL 17 17 \U EK@@LVECBM @KVTIBIL VBTLU, %
^rcvbtl E@FU
Biljey E@FU
Ek``lrecbm
\jsleurld VLCT
25
@umtcab`cmy
9%
29< 2<>
1%
26< 2>>
<%
9< <>
4%
6< > Gbj-22
Gum-22
Ukurel7 Vlbm Ebpctbm Ebpctbm Bjbmytces
Gbj-26
Gum-26
5% ><
>1
>9
>?
>3
2>
22
26
25
Ukurel7 Vlbm Ebpctbm Bjbmytces. Acxld rbtl mkbjs wcto 9-2> ylbr tlr`s
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | ?
VLT\VJ AKVLEBUTU
@LTOKDKMKIS
U\@@BVS KA VLU\MTU
Tol eobrts cj tocs sletckj sokw tol biirlibtl rlsumts ka tol EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs– mbtlst prkprcltbry rlbm lstbtl akrlebsts. Tolsl akrlebsts brl akr ekrl cjvlst`ljts, wctokut mlvlrbil laalets, olmd kvlr b acvl ylbr plrckd, cj mkebm eurrljey tlr`s. @kst c`pkrtbjtm c`pkrtbjtmy, y, tolsl tolsl akrlebsts sc`umbtl b pkrtakmck rlturj tk cjvlstkrs, tbhcji cjtk beekujt prlvbcmcji mlbsl prbetcels bjd lxpljsl rbtcks cj tol dcaalrljt `brhlts.
Tocs sletckj sokws kur rlturj akrlebsts fy `bgkr ilkirbpoy bjd prkplrty typl.
Tol rlturj akrlebsts brl b stbrtcji pkcjt cj dlvlmkpcji bjd `bjbicji bj cjvlst`ljt strbtliy. Uuf`brhlt ekjdctckjs bjd, tk b irlbtlr lxtljt, prkplrty-splecace eobrbetlrcstces irlbtmy c`pbet kvlrbmm rlturjs.
Bscb ^becace bjd tol \.U. brl lxpletld tk kutplrakr`. Yctocj Bscb ^becace, tol strueturbm sokrtbil ka `kdlrj rlbm lstbtl stkeh, ekupmld wcto tol mbril ”ebteo-up‐ pktljtcbm, ekjtrcfutl pksctcvlmy tk tol rlbm lstbtl rlturj kutmkkh. Cj tol \.U., bmm sletkrs brl lxpletld tk prkvcdl b e?% tktbm rlturj. Tol \.U. rlsumts brl drcvlj drcvlj fy rlbskjbfml lekjk`ce irkwto, mkw ekjstruetckj pcplmcjls bjd iljlrbmmy bttrbetcvl, flmkwrlpmbel`ljt ekst prcecji. Cjdustrcbm prkvcdls stlbdy cjek`l bjd kaacel wcmm fljlact ark` b strkji eyemcebm upswcji typcebmmy sllj batlr b dkwjturj. Bmtokuio tol olbdmcjl rlsumt akr Lurkpl cs mlss pksctcvl tobj tol \UB bjd tol Bscb-^becace rlickjs, tocs ocdls b wcdl dcsplrsckj ka rlturjs berkss tol `kst rlscmcljt Jkrtolrj `brhlts bjd tol `kst dcstrlssld dcstrlssld Ukutolrj `brhlts. Bmtokuio tol rljt akrlebsts brl rlmbtcvlmy wlbh cj tol rlickj, tol biirlibtl rlsumt cs betubmmy `krl cjamuljeld fy tol cjemusckj ka rlscdljtcbm wcto cts strueturbmmy mkw cj-ikcji yclmds.
ACI\VL 27 BUCB ^BECACE BJD BJD \.U L_^LETLD L_^LETLD TK K\T^LVAKV@ K\T^LVAKV@
2>% j r u t l V d l z c m ) b 9 u 2 j > j 6 B 5 t s 2 b > e 6 l ( r k A r b l S <
?.2%
?.2%
?% 1.4% 1%
4% 6% >% Bscb ^becace ^becace
\.U.
Lurkpl
Ukurel7 EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs Tol Bscb ^becace bjd Lurkpl rlickjbm rlturjs rlamlet tol wlciotld bvlrbil ka ekujtry/sletkr rlturjs wctocj tol rlspletcvl rlickj, wlciotld fy tol `brhlt sobrl ka tol Imkfbm Cjvlstbfml \jcvlrsl akr rlbm lstbtl, bs lstc`btld fy EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs.
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 3
ACI\VL 67 \.U. \JMLQLVLD EKVL VLT\VJU FS ^VK^LVTS TS^L
2>% d l z c m b 9 ?% u 2 j > j 6 B 5 t s 2 1% b > e 6 l j r 4% k r u A t r l b V l 6% S <
?.4%
?.2%
9.?%
?.2%
?.2%
Kaacel
Cjdustrcbm
Bpbrt`ljt
Vltbcm
\.U.
>%
Ukurel7 EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs
ACI\VL 57 L\VK^LBJ \JMLQLVLD EKVL VLT\VJU FS ^VK^LVTS TS^L
2>% d l z c m b 9 ?% u 2 j > j 6 B 5 1% t 2 s b > e 6 l j 4% r k r u A t r l 6% b V l S < >%
9.3% 1.?%
1.6%
1.4%
4.6%
Kaacel
Mkicstces
Vlscdljtcbm
Vltbcm
Lurkpl
Ukurel7 EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs
ACI\VL 47 BUCB 47 BUCB ^BECACE \JMLQLVLD \JMLQLVLD EKVL EKVL VLT\VJU FS ^VK^LVTS ^VK^LVTS TS^L TS^L
2>% d l z c m b 9 ?% u 2 j > j 6 B 5 1% t 2 s b > e 6 l j 4% r k r u A t r l 6% b V l S < >%
3.4%
?.9%
9.<%
?.2%
<.3%
Kaacel
Mkicstces
Vlscdljtcbm
Vltbcm
Bscb ^becace
Ukurel7 EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 2>
\JCTLD UTBTLU
Tol \.U. rlekvlry ekjtcjuld cts `kdlst pbel cj tol acrst qubrtlr ka 6>25. Irkwto wbs flmkw cts mkji-tlr` trljd bjd ocrcji, tokuio skmcd, rl`bcjs abr flmkw wobt cs jlldld tk `bhl b sczlbfml dljt cj tol jbtckj–s ujl`pmky`ljt. ujl`pmky`ljt. ID^ cjerlbsld cjerlbsld fy 6.<% cj tol acrst qubrtlr kj bj bjjubmczld fbscs, up sufstbjtcbmmy ark` >.4% cj tol prckr qubrtlr bs ekjsu`lrs spljt `krl bjd fuscjlssls rlstkehld cjvljtkrcls. Gkf irkwto, batlr rlvcsckjs, bvlrbild 626,>>> gkfs plr `kjto cj R2. (Aciurls 2 bjd 6) Vlscdljtcbm ekjstruetckj bjd ekjsu`lr spljdcji ― typcebmmy twk ka tol lekjk`y–s drcvcji akrels ― ekjtcjuld tk c`prkvl cj tol mbtlst qubrtlr. Ok`l ekjstruetckj rksl aurtolr cj tol acrst qubrtlr bjd tol U&^/Ebsl-Uocmmlr cjdlx cjerlbsld fy 3.5% SkS torkuio Alfrubry.
Trbjsbetckj cjerlbsld tk bm`kst $95F cj R2, b 5<% cjerlbsl ark` b ylbr lbrmclr bjd tol slekjd ociolst qubrtlrmy vkmu`l scjel tol rlelssckj. Ebp rbtls rl`bcjld `kstmy stbfml berkss bmm prkplrty typls cj R28 okwlvlr, ebp rbtls obvl rcslj smciotmy cj tol pbst ylbr flebusl b mbrilr sobrl ka sbmls betcvcty cs tbhcji pmbel cj slekjdbry bjd tlrtcbry `brhlts. Tol rbtck ka tol JEVLCA ^rkplrty Cjdlx vbmulwlciotld trbjsbetckj tk tol rcsh arll rbtl ka rlturj obs jkw fllj bfkvl 5.> akr b aumm ylbr ― tol ociolst mlvlms sllj cj 5> ylbrs ka dbtb ocstkry. Tol rbtck ka ebp rbtls rbtls tk ekrpkrbtl fkjds cs bmsk wlmm bfkvl cts mkji-tlr` bvlrbil. Vlbm lstbtl ekjtcjuls tk fl bj bttrbetcvl cjvlst`ljt rlmbtcvl tk ktolr acxld-cjek`l bmtlrjbtcvls. (Aciurl 5) dl`bjd cs `kvcji smkwlr tobj `kmbssls cj Gbjubry. Bjktolr 2> fps dlemcjl cj tol vbebjey rbtl frcjis ct tk 2<.5%, jkt lvlj obmawby fbeh tk cts prl-rlelssckj trkuio (26.4%). Bfskrptckj cj tol acrst qubrtlr ka tol ylbr wbs rkuiomy 5<% ka mkji-tlr` mlvlms, dlspctl b rkfust gkfs stkry cj rleljt qubrtlrs. ^rkspletcvl tljbjts ekumd obvl fllj spkkhld fy mkk`cji slqulstrbtckj. Tljbjts brl bmsk mkkhcji tk cjerlbsl tolcr spbel utcmczbtckj rbtls (squbrl akkt/l`pmkyll) fy fbehacmmcji tolcr "sobdkw spbel" flakrl cjeurrcji bddctckjbm mlbscji eksts. Vljt irkwto stbmmld cj tol `kst rleljt qubrtlr batlr b 9% ibcj kvlr twk ylbrs. Kaacel `brhlt aujdb`ljtbms brl lxpletld tk ekjtcjul tk c`prkvl cj drcfs bjd drbfs cj tol jlbr tlr` flakrl gkf irkwto hcehs cjtk ociolr ilbr. Hllp bj lyl kut akr fucmd-tk-sucts bjd ekrpkrbtl eb`pusls. (Aciurl 4)
Fukyld fy rlsuriljt ekjstruetckj bjd `bjuabeturcji cjdustrcls, bs wlmm bs stbfml ekjsu`lr spljdcji bjd trbdl vkmu`ls, tol sletkr cs ibcjcji strljito. Tol cjdustrcbm bvbcmbfcmcty rbtl almm b spletbeumbr <> fps tk 26.5% cj R2, tol mbrilst qubrtlrmy dlemcjl scjel 6>2>. Tol bvbcmbfcmcty rbtl cs bm`kst obmawby fbeh tk cts prl-rlelssckj trkuio (3.?%). Bfskrptckj obs fllj lxelptckjbmmy rkfust cj tol mbst twk qubrtlrs. Bmtokuio sk`l db`pljcji cj jlbr-tlr` plrakr`bjel dul tk fudilt euts bjd ekjsu`lrs bdgustcji tk s`bmmlr pbyeolehs `by keeur, ekjtcjuld c`prkvl`ljts cj okuscji bjd mbfkr `brhlts wcmm ebusl aurtolr dlemcjls cj bvbcmbfcmcty rbtls. Bjjubm ekjstruetckj mlvlms brl stcmm b qubrtlr ka ocstkrce bvlrbils bs rljts obvl `bdl kjmy `kdlst ibcjs. (Aciurl <) sekrld bjktolr qubrtlr ka strkji plrakr`bjel bjd ekjtcjuld tk ekjakujd `brhlt wbteolrs. Tol `ueo-drlbdld suppmy pcplmcjl cs vlry `ueo ujdlrwby. Fut ct wbs kutiujjld fy skmcd dl`bjd, ebuscji tol vbebjey rbtl tk abmm fy 2> fps tk <.3%, jkw gust 6> fps soy ka cts prl-rlelssckj trkuio. Kj tol ktolr objd, rljt irkwto, tokuio stcmm pksctcvl, cs smkwcji dkwj bs jlw suppmy ljtlrs tol `brhlt. Bshcji bjd laaletcvl rljts brl jlbrmy 4% bfkvl tolcr 6>>9 plbh, sk b dlelmlrbtckj cj rljt cjerlbsls cs jkt ek`pmltlmy ujwbrrbjtld akr sk`l `ltrks, tokuio toly bmsk tljd tk fl lxpljscvl akr-sbml okuscji `brhlts (UA Fby Brlb, Jlw Skrh, DE). Aurtolr c`prkvl`ljt cj bpbrt`ljt `brhlt aujdb`ljtbms, c.l., akr dl`bjd tk stby bolbd ka suppmy, cs prldcebtld jkt gust kj leok fkk`lrs mlbvcji tolcr pbrljts' fbsl`ljts fut bmsk kj beelmlrbtckj cj gkf irkwto. Tol bvbcmbfcmcty rbtl akr jlciofkrokkd bjd ek``ujcty obs sk abr lxplrcljeld b vlry smkw bjd `kdlst dlemcjl ark` cts plbh ka 25.2% (6>22). Bt 26.<%, tol bvbcmbfcmcty rbtl wbs dkwj 5> fps RkR, tol fciilst qubrtlrmy dlemcjl scjel 6>><. Olmpcji drcvl pksctcvl dl`bjd cs tol rlfkujd cj okuscji. Tolrl brl jkw 2< `brhlts wcto vbebjecls flmkw 2>%. Bmm fut kjl (^cttsfurio) brl ekbstbm `brhlts. Ek`pbrbfml eobcj stkrl sbmls (lxemudcji Ybm @brt) cjerlbsld b `kdlst 6.<%, wcto @breo sbmls flcji sufduld fy ekmd wcjtlr wlbtolr. Tol cjtlrjlt ekjtcjuls tk lxpbjd, bjd `krl rltbcmlrs brl ikcji `umtceobjjlm. Jkj-stkrl rltbcm sbmls (ebtbmki bjd "purl" cjtlrjlt) cjerlbsld 26.?%, SkS. Tol @brhltpmbel Abcrjlss Bet, jkw flcji bdvbjeld, wkumd mlvlm tol pmbycji aclmd fltwllj cjtlrjlt bjd frcehs-bjd-`krtbr stkrls. IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 22
\JCTLD UTBTLU ― EOBVTU ACI\VL 27 BJJ\BM 27 BJJ\BM ID^ IVKYTO, %^B
ACI\VL 67 67 @KJTOMS L@^MKS@LJT IBCJU/MKUULU J\@FLV KA GKFU (>>>s) @/@ EOBJIL
<%
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4%
5>>
5% 2>>
6% 2%
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-3>> >?
>3
2>
22
26
25
Ukurel7 @kkdy–s Bjbmytces
Ukurel7 Furlbu ka Mbfkr Utbtcstces
ACI\VL 57 BUULT 57 BUULT EMBUU SCLMDU, %
ACI\VL 47 47 JBTCKJBM KAACEL BFUKV^TCKJ & QBEBJES VBTL AKVLEBUT
JEVLCA Trbjsbetckj Ebp Vbtl Fbb Ekrpkrbtl Fkjd 2>-Slbr Trlbsury Sclmd
2?% 21%
Fbsl Ebsl Bfskrptckj
26<
6>%
Qbebjey Vbtl Vbtl
24%
2?%
j 9< k ) c t s p j r k6< k c s m m f c B ` l (-6< e A c a a U K
26% 2>% ?% 1%
l 21% t
b V
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26% b e 2>%
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4% 6%
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1% 33
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b Q
>2
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22
25
2<
29
? 5 ?< ?9 ?3 32 35 3 < 39 33 >2 >5 > < > 9 >3 22 25
Ukurels7 JEVLCA, @kkdy–s Bjbmytces
Ukurels7 EFVL Lekjk`ltrce Bdvcskrs, EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs
ACI\VL <7 JBTCKJBM CJD\UTVCBM DL@BJD & BQBCMBFCMCTS VBTL AKVLEBUT
ACI\VL 17 17 AKVLEBUTLD BJJ\BM VLJT IVKYTO ACQL SLBV BQLVBIL (6>25-6>29)
4>>
21%
5>>
24%
6>>
26% t l
) j s j 2>> k c k t m p c m r c k ` s ( > f B A U
-2>>
b V y t 2>% c m c f b m c b ?% v B
-6>>
1%
-5>>
4% 33
>2
>5
><
>9
>3
22
25
Ukurels7 EFVL Lekjk`ltrce Bdvcskrs, EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs
2<
29
1% <%
4.6%
4%
5.5%
5.>%
6.9%
5% 6% 2% >%
Kaacel
Vltbcm
Bpbrt`ljt
Cjdustrcbm
Ukurels7 EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs, EFVL-LB
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 26
\JCTLD HCJIDK@
Tol \H cs b`cdst b prkmkjild plrckd ka sufduld betcvcty. Tol frkbd pceturl cs laaletcvlmy ujeobjild scjel kur mbst Imkfbm Qcsckj7 kutput irkwto cs flcji rlstrbcjld fy acsebm rltrljeo`ljt, prcvbtl-sletkr dlmlvlrbicji, b eobmmljild fbjhcji sletkr, rcscji ljlriy eksts bjd sufduld dl`bjd ark` hly trbdcji pbrtjlrs. Yocml tol lekjk`y obs bvkcdld b trcpml dcp rlelssckj, tol rkbd bolbd wcmm jlvlrtolmlss fl fu`py bjd ek``lrecbm prkplrty abels ylt bjktolr brdukus ylbr.
abel dkwjwbrd prlssurl tocs ylbr. Toksl sli`ljts ka tol `brhlt emkslmy ekrrlmbtld wcto plrskjbm ekjsu`ptckj, jb`lmy dcserltckjbry rltbcm bjd mkicstces, brl mchlmy tk fl dcsprkpkrtckjbtlmy c`pbetld. Tol rljtbm kutmkkh akr tol Eljtrbm Mkjdkj kaacel `brhlt rl`bcjs eobmmljild dul tk mbtljt keeupclr ujelrtbcjty, b surpmus ka irly spbel bjd b irkwcji suppmy pcplmcjl.
Bprcm 6>25 sbw Acteo akmmkw @kkdy–s dlecsckj tk dkwjirbdl tol \H ark` cts BBB skvlrlcij erldct rbtcji. Lxemudcji Gbpbj, Frctbcj obs fy abr tol ociolst ka `bgkr Ylstlrj lekjk`cls bjd cts mbiicji acsebm plrakr`bjel rlmbtcvl tk ktolr mbril lekjk`cls mkkhs tk rl`bcj prkjkujeld kvlr tol jlbr tlr`. Yocml tol rl-rbtcji cs cjdlld b fml`cso, wl allm tobt tol frkbdlr lekjk`y cs jkt betubmmy bjy wkrsl kaa bjd tol dkwjirbdl wbs jktocji `krl tobj b rlamletckj ka wobt wl bmrlbdy hjlw. \jsurprcscjimy, tol skvlrlcij dkwjirbdl obs beelmlrbtld tol abmm cj Utlrmcji . Yocml jlctolr tol Fbjh ka Ljimbjd jkr tol Trlbsury wcmm arllmy bd`ct ct, tocs cs wobt fkto obd fllj trycji tk beoclvl cj tol okpl ka stc`umbtcji lxpkrt irkwto. Bj kfvckus c`pmcebtckj akr kvlrslbs cjvlstkrs cs tobt \H prkplrty prcecji cs mchlmy tk rl`bcj bttrbetcvl dlspctl tol wlbh lekjk`ce ujdlrpcjjcjis. Tokuio tol cjlvctbfml rcscji cjambtckj cs mchlmy tk lbt bwby bt rlbm rljtbm irkwto, wl flmclvl tobt dllp bjd dcvlrsl skurels ka kvlrslbs ebpctbm wcmm stcmm fl ek`plmmld tk tol \H cj iljlrbm, bjd Mkjdkj cj pbrtceumbr. Tol plrakr`bjel ka \H prkplrty bs wlmm bs kur kutmkkh cs bmsk frkbdmy cj mcjl wcto tol mbst Imkfbm Qcsckj. Beekrdcji tk tol @breo 6>25 C^D Rubrtlrmy Cjdlx, tktbm bt tol bmm prkplrty mlvlm obvl fllj mbehmustlr7 2.2% RkR bjd 5.>% kvlr tol prleldcji ylbr. Tocs cs dul, cj pbrt, tk tol dkwjwbrd drcffml ka ebpctbm vbmuls, woceo obvl jkw abmmlj akr scx ekjsleutcvl qubrtlrs, b`kujtcji tk -5.1% scjel R4 6>22. Bmtokuio keeupbtckjbm `brhlts kutscdl ka Mkjdkj brl iljlrbmmy wlbh, wl brl stbrtcji tk sll cjeljtcvls pbehbils stbfcmczl bjd flmclvl tobt rljts brl rlbeocji b amkkr. Ct cs ka ekursl dcaaceumt tk iljlrbmczl ― cjdustrcbm rljts brl frkbdmy stbfml, wocml rljtbm vbmuls cj sk`l pbrts ka tol bjd sletkrs stcmm bpplbr tk fl kvlrstbtld cj `bjy vbmubtckjs. B prlvbcmcji prlvbcmcji tol`l berkss bmm sletkrs bjd `brhlts cs tobt mbjdmkrds obvl tk cjvlst cj tolcr prkplrtcls tk bttrbet tljbjts. Kwcji tk ek`pltctcvl prlssurl kj keeupclrs, wl lxplet rljtbm vbmuls tk
B prlvbcmcji tol`l berkss sletkrs bjd `brhlts obs fllj b wcdljcji ibp fltwllj bsslt prcecji. Tol abet tobt elrtbcj s`bmmlr mkt sczl bsslts brl trbdcji bolbd ka vbmubtckjs ekupmld wcto tol sbmlbfcmcty ka rleljtmy ujsbmbfml bsslts, mlbds us tk flmclvl tobt tocs wcdljcji yclmd ibp `by fl eum`cjbtcji. Yl sur`csl tobt fy tocs tc`l jlxt ylbr, tocs eurrljt ocstkrcebmmy wcdl yclmd ibp wcmm obvl fliuj tk jbrrkw. Tocs cs rlamletld cj kur c`prkvld Bmm ^rkplrty ebpctbm vbmul kutmkkh akr 6>25 . Yl jkw lxplet ylbr-kj-ylbr dlemcjls ka 2.9%, bj c`prkvl`ljt ka brkujd 2>>fps scjel mbst qubrtlr. Qbmul abmms brl mchlmy tk fl arkjt-ljdld, wcto b stbfcmczbtckj mbtlr tocs ylbr bjd b irbdubm c`prkvl`ljt ek`cji cj 6>24. Cj tlr`s ka dcrlet prkplrty cjvlst`ljt, STD obvl fllj cj mcjl wcto mbst ylbr. \H cjstctutckjs bjd mcstld prkplrty ek`pbjcls ekjtcjul tk fl rlbskjbfmy betcvl8 fut tol dk`cjbjt akrel cj tol `brhlt cs kvlrslbs cjvlstkrs, beekujtcji akr bm`kst <>% ka bmm trbjsbetckjs. Mkkhcji bolbd, wl lxplet ebpctbm amkws tk ekjtcjul tk abvkr prc`l bsslts, fut wcto b fuddcji cjtlrlst cj ikkd qubmcty slekjdbry prkplrty. Yocml ekrl strbtlicls cj Eljtrbm Mkjdkj bjd tol Ukuto Lbst brl mchlmy tk rl`bcj cj vkiul , wl brl stbrtcji tk sll cjvlstkrs stlp up tol rcsh eurvl cj tol ebpctbm bjd slmlet rlickjbm kaacel `brhlts. Lqucty cjvlstkrs, crrlspletcvl ka dk`cecml kr rcsh prkacml, ekjtcjul tk obvl tol upplr objd. Yl flmclvl tobt tol plrckd ka objdcmy kutplrakr`cji tol rlst ka tol `brhlt cs drbwcji tk b emksl. Yocml tol sletkr cs lxpletld tk rl`bcj b tbrilt ka akrlcij ebpctbm, cjctcbm yclmds mkkh mkw rlmbtcvl tk kur dkwjwbrdmy rlvcsld rljtbm kutmkkh. Tol rlsumt cs tobt tktbm rlturjs wcmm mbi tol `brhlt bvlrbil kvlr fkto tol jlxt torll bjd acvl ylbrs. Tocs cs guxtbpksld fy Ukuto Lbst kaacels, b sletkr tobt wl allm obs fllj dcsprkpkrtckjbmmy pljbmczld cj tlr`s ka ebpctbm vbmul abmms bjd kjl tobt sokumd kutplrakr` dul tk b ocio cjek`l rlturj. Cjdustrcbms, sokumd bmsk kutplrakr` akr tocs sb`l rlbskj.
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 25
\JCTLD HCJIDK@ ― EOBVTU ACI\VL 27 ID^ AKVLEBUTU BU EK@@\JCEBTLD CJ \H F\DILTU BJD B\T\@J UTBTL@LJTU, % S/S
ACI\VL 67 67 UTLVMCJI UTLVMCJI TVBDL-YLCIOTLD CJDL_, GBJ. 6>>902>>
5.<
2><
5.>
2>>
6.< Guj-2> Jkv-2> @br-22 Jkv-22 @br-26 Dle-26 @br-25
6.> 2.< 2.> >.< >.>
3< 3> Bvlrbil scjel 6>>3
?< ?> 9< 9>
->.< 2>
22
26
25
24
2<
21
29
mkw-pkcjt
1< >9
>?
>3
2>
22
26
25
Ukurel7 Tol Kaacel akr Fudilt Vlspkjscfcmcty
Ukurel7 Tok`skj Vlutlrs
ACI\VL 57 CJAMBTCKJ, % S/S
ACI\VL 47 ULMLET VLICKJBM \H KAACEL VLJT AVLL ^LVCKDU, @KJTOU
E^C V^C FkL tbrilt
1 < 4
Fcr`cjiob`
1>
Mllds
<>
@bjeolstlr
4>
5 6
5>
2
6>
>
2>
-2
>
-6 >> >2 >6 >5 >4 >< >1 >9 >? >3 2> 22 26 25 24 2< 21 29
>?
>3
2>
22
Ukurels7 Jbtckjbm Utbtcstces, Lekjk`cst Cjtlmmciljel \jct, EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs
Ukurel7 EFVL
ACI\VL <7 <7 BMM ^VK^LVTS EB^CTBM QBM\L IVKYTO, S/S
ACI\VL 17 17 DCVLET ^VK^LVTS CJQLUT@LJT STD TOVK\IO LJD B^VCM 6>25, % KA TVBJUBETCKJU FS QBM\L
26
EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs
4%
Eljtrbm Mkjdkj Kaacel
C^A Alfrubry 6>25 Ekjsljsus
5%
Vlst ka \H Kaacel
6%
Uokppcji Eljtrl
2%
Vltbcm Ybrlokusl
>%
Uokp / Uuplr`brhlt
-2%
Cjdustrcbm
-6%
Mlcsurl
-5%
Ktolr 26
25
24
Ukurels7 EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs, C^A
2<
21
29
25/29
Ukurel7 ^rkplrty Dbtb
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 24
ILV@BJS
Ilr`bj irkwto fleb`l smciotmy jlibtcvl fy tol ljd ka 6>26. Vlbm ID^ irkwto dlemcjld fy >.1% q/q cj R4 6>26. Okwlvlr, tol lekjk`ce kutmkkh cs stcmm skmcd dlspctl tol rlelssckj cj `bjy Lurkplbj ekujtrcls. Kjikcji dl`bjd ark` lekjk`cls kutscdl tol Lurkzkjl bjd skmcd dk`lstce ekjsu`lr dl`bjd cs lxpletld tk fbmbjel rlelssckjbry trljds. ID^ irkwto cj 6>25 cs jkt lxpletld tk kutplrakr` 6>26, strkjilr lekjk`ce irkwto cs lxpletld ark` 6>24 kjwbrds. (Aciurl 2) Tol ujl`pmky`ljt rbtl cjerlbsld tk 9.4% cj Gbjubry 6>25 (slbskjbmmy cjdueld), woceo rlamlets tol sb`l mlvlm bs tol prlvckus ylbr. (Aciurl 6) Tol mkw rbtl, cj bddctckj tk lxpletld wbil cjerlbsls bjd skmcd lxtlrjbm dl`bjd, sokumd olmp rlstrbcj rlelssckjbry dlvlmkp`ljts. Okwlvlr, tol stcmm ujskmvld Lurkzkjl rl`bcjs tol hly dkwjscdl rcsh akr kur kutmkkh kj Ilr`bjy. Dl`bjd akr Ilr`bj spbel smkwld durcji 6>26. Cj tol Fci-< Ilr`bj `brhlts (Flrmcj, Arbjhaurt, @ujceo, Ob`furi bjd Dýsslmdkra), tbhl up durcji cj 6>26 dlerlbsld fy ?% y/y. Icvlj mkw ekjstruetckj betcvcty, vbebjey rbtls rl`bcjld stbfml kr lvlj eb`l dkwj cj b alw `brhlts, woceo tolj mld tk `kdlrbtl jk`cjbm prc`l rljt irkwto. dl`bjd cs jkt lxpletld tk kutplrakr` 6>25 icvlj tol wlbhlr irkwto seljbrck. Okwlvlr, tol mkw dlvlmkp`ljt pcplmcjl bjd sustbcjld dl`bjd akr prc`l spbel wcmm mc`ct dkwjwbrd prlssurl kj prc`l rljts. (Aciurl 5) Vljts brl betubmmy akrlebst tk cjerlbsl `kdlstmy cj 6>25 cj sk`l ekrl `brhlts, bjd `krl jktbfmy tolrlbatlr, woceo cs cj mcjl wcto cjerlbscji lekjk`ce irkwto. Ekjsu`lr dl`bjd wbs sk`lwobt wlbhlr cj 6>26. Vlbm rltbcm sbmls irkwto wbs smciotmy pksctcvl fy >.5% y/y. Utrkji rltbcmlr dl`bjd bjd tciot bvbcmbfcmcty akr prc`l spbel hlpt upwbrd prlssurl kj ocio strllt rltbcm rljts cj R4 6>26, woceo c`prkvld bibcj cj Flrmcj fy 5.4% q/q. Tol wlbhlr irkwto lxpletbtckj bjd pmbjjld bustlrcty `lbsurls cj 6>25 wcmm mchlmy ekjstrbcj ibcjs cj ekjsu`lr dl`bjd. Fut, tocs ekumd fl pbrtcbmmy `ctcibtld fy tol skujd mbfkr `brhlt, wbil cjerlbsls bjd `kdlrbtl sokrt-tlr` cjambtckj. ^rc`l sokppcji eljtlr rljts brl akrlebst tk rcsl `kdlstmy cj 6>25. (Aciurl 4) Ocio strllt rljts cj ekrl `brhlts brl lxpletld tk ekjtcjul tk cjerlbsl jktbfmy jlxt ylbr. Vltbcmlrs wcto `umtc-eobjjlm lxpbjsckj strbtlicls brl akeuscji kj prc`l rltbcm brlbs cj Ilr`bjy.
dl`bjd obs smkwld dkwj, batlr ocstkrcebmmy ocio mlvlms ka tbhl-up kvlr tol pbst twk ylbrs. Mlbscji vkmu`ls eb`l dkwj cj hly `brhlts fy 65% y/y cj 6>26. Okwlvlr, tol kvlrbmm vkmu`l cs stcmm skmcd bjd bfkvl tol 26. Bs b rlsumt, prc`l mkicstces rljts cjerlbsld smciotmy cj @ujceo bjd Ob`furi bt ylbr ljd. Mkicstces dl`bjd cs lxpletld tk ekjtcjul tk wlbhlj cj 6>25, cj mcjl wcto `kdlrbtl lekjk`ce irkwto lxpletbtckjs. Qlry mkw spleumbtcvl ekjstruetckj betcvcty cs mchlmy cj tol jlbr-tk-`ldcu`-tlr`, sk jk dkwjwbrd prlssurl kj rljts cs lxpletld dul tk jlw suppmy. Vljts brl akrlebst tk rl`bcj stbfml cj 6>25 bjd brl mchlmy tk cjerlbsl bibcj cj 6>24, icvlj tol pksctcvl kutmkkh akr hly mkicstces drcvlrs cj Ilr`bjy pkst-6>25. (Aciurl <) Tol dl`bjd akr Ilr`bj pkrtakmcks wbs fkkstld cj 6>26 fy b strkji bppltctl akr cjek`l-drcvlj cjvlst`ljts cj sbal obvlj dlstcjbtckjs. Tol tktbm turjkvlr ka brkujd ₭22.5 fj cj 6>26 wbs tol ociolst scjel 6>>9. @krl tobj 6>>,>>> rlscdljtcbm ujcts eobjild objds mbst ylbr bjd tol mcstld sletkr wbs tol `kst betcvl. Tol strkji dl`bjd akr Ilr`bj rlscdljtcbm pkrtakmcks pkrtakmcks cs lxpletld tk ekjtcjul tocs ylbr. Ilr`bj ek``lrecbm turjkvlr wbs 626, woceo cs 22% bfkvl tol prlvckus ylbr. Ekrl bequcsctckjs rl`bcjld dk`cjbjt bjd kaacel wbs tol `kst trbjsbetld bsslt embss (44% ka tktbm trbjsbetckj betcvcty) akmmkwld fy rltbcm (51%). Vltbcm rl`bcjs tol cjvlstkr dbrmcji, fut tol bvbcmbfcmcty ka ekrl bsslts cs tciot. Mkicstces cjvlst`ljt turjkvlr c`prkvld cj 6>26, ebpturcji bm`kst 9% ka tktbm cjvlst`ljts. Kvlrbmm, prc`l prkplrty yclmds dlemcjld bibcj cj sk`l `bgkr kaacel `brhlts bjd akr prc`l rltbcm. Toly rl`bcjld stbfml cj hly mkicstces oufs cj R4. Dl`bjd akr Ilr`bj rlbm lstbtl cs lxpletld tk okmd up wlmm cj 6>25, bmtokuio keeupclr `brhlts `by `kdlrbtl bjd dlft bvbcmbfcmcty ekumd tciotlj. ^rc`l brl akrlebst tk rl`bcj bt mkw mlvlms cj 6>25/6>24, bs cjvlstkr dl`bjd cs jkt lxpletld tk wlbhlj bjd lekjk`ce irkwto strljitoljs. (Aciurl 1) Ekrl rlbm lstbtl cs stcmm prkgletld tk kaalr abvkrbfml yclmds ek`pbrld tk ek`pltctcvl bsslt embssls. Tol bttrbetcvl rcsh-sprlbd fltwllj prkplrty yclmds bjd fkjds (ikvlrj`ljt bjd ekrpkrbtl) cs jkt lxpletld tk eobjil skkj.
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 2<
ILV@BJS ― EOBVTU ACI\VL 27 27 VLBM ID^ IVKYTO, % S/S 1%
ACI\VL 67 \JL@^MKS@LJT VBTL, % 24%
Mkji-Tlr` Bvlrbil
4%
26%
6%
2>%
Mkji-Tlr` Bvlrbil
?%
>%
1%
-6%
4%
-4%
6%
-1%
>%
35 3< 39 33 >2 >5 >< >9 >3 22 25 2< 29
3 6 3 4 3 1 3 ? > > > 6 > 4 > 1 > ? 2 > 2 6 2 4 21
Ukurel7 Lekjk`cst Cjtlmmciljel \jct
Ukurel7 Lekjk`cst Cjtlmmciljel \jct
ACI\VL 57 KAACEL JLT BDDCTCKJU TK UTKEH*
ACI\VL 47 @BVHLT VLJTBM IVKYTO, % S/S
<.>% 4.<% 4.>% 5.<% 5.>% 6.<% 6.>% 2.<% 2.>% >.<% >.>%
Uokppcji Eljtlr (C^D) Kaacel (^rc`l) Mkicstces (^rc`l)
2<%
Mkji-Tlr` Bvlrbil
2>% <% >% -<% -2>% -2<% -6>% 36
34
31
3?
>>
>6
>4
>1
>?
2>
26
3? 3 3 >> >2 >6 >5 >4 >< >1 > 9 >? > 3 2> 22 26 25 24 2 <
24
Ukurels7 ^rkplrty @brhlt Bjbmyscs, EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs *Bvlrbil Ilr`bj Fci < `brhlts
Ukurel7 EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs
ACI\VL <7 <7 HLS MKICUTCEU DVCQLVU (6>>9 0 2>>)
ACI\VL 17 ^VC@L JLT CJCTCBM SCLMDU, % Kaacel
2<>
Cjdustrcbm ^rkduetckj
24>
C`pkrt Qkmu`l ka Ikkds Lxpkrt Qkmu`l ka Ikkds
>25> > 2 26> 0 9 > >22> 6 x l2>> d j C
UE
Mkicstces
3% ?%
Vlbm ^rcvbtl Ekjsu`ptckj
9% 1% <%
3>
4%
?> 9>
5% >9
>?
>3
Ukurel7 Lekjk`cst Cjtlmmciljel \jct
2>
22
26
25
24
2<
3 ? 3 3 >> > 2 > 6 > 5 > 4 > < > 1 > 9 > ? > 3 2 > 2 2 2 6 2 5 2 4 2 <
Ukurel7 EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 21
AVBJEL
Tol Arljeo lekjk`y almm cjtk rlelssckj cj R2 6>25 bjd tol aumm ylbr akrlebst cs akr >.6% (Aciurl2) Ekjsu`ptckj, tol ekjtrbetckj. ocstkrcebm drcvlr ka Arljeo lekjk`ce irkwto, cs ikcji tk fl c`pbetld fy ujl`pmky`ljt, woceo plbhld cj @breo 6>25 bt 22.>%. Cj bddctckj, Arljeo ekjsu`lrs wcmm fl oct fy tbx cjerlbsls. Tol lekjk`ce kutmkkh wcmm akmmkw b `krl abvkrbfml pbto stbrtcji cj 6>2<, wcto bjjubm lekjk`ce irkwto kvlr 2%.
Tol arbicml obs bmrlbdy c`pbetld tol rlbm lstbtl `brhlts, lsplecbmmy keeupclrs dl`bjd. Tol ek`pbjcls– lxpbjsckj pkmcecls obvl fllj rlpmbeld fy strlb`mcjcji strbtlicls. Ekjslquljtmy cj Cml-dl-Arbjel, tbhl-up obs rlekrdld b dlerlbsl ka ―64% durcji R2 6>25 ek`pbrld tk R2 6>26. Jlt bfskrptckj cs tolrlakrl lxpletld tk fl mc`ctld cj tol ek`cji qubrtlrs. (Aciurl 5) @krlkvlr, tol dlemcjl cj ekjsu`ptckj (Aciurl 6), `bcjmy dul tk tol dlemcjl ka pureobscji pkwlr, cs ikcji tk baalet torkuiokut 6>25. Tol smkwdkwj sokumd cjamuljel bm`kst bmm rltbcm sletkrs, bmtokuio butk`kfcml bjd tlxtcml-mlbtolr wcmm prkfbfmy fl `krl baaletld fy tol abmm cj okuslokmd ekjsu`ptckj. L-ek``lrel cs tbhcji b irkwcji sobrl ka rltbcm sbmls bjd wcmm ekjtcjul tk puso rltbcmlrs tk bdbpt bjd rlstrueturl tolcr dcstrcfutckj. Uk`l rltbcmlrs obvl dlecdld tk emksl tol wkrst-plrakr`cji sbmls pkcjts (l.i., Qcricj, AJBE, ^okjl Okusl). Ktolr rltbcmlrs brl dlvlmkpcji lxpbjsckj pkmcecls wcto cjjkvbtcvl fuscjlss `kdlms cj strbtlice mkebtckjs (@BE, HCHK, Bflrerk`fcl & Acteo).
Okuslokmd ekjsu`ptckj dl`bjd bt rltbcmlrs mkebtld cj sokppcji eljtlrs cs ikcji tk fl `krl slmletcvl. Cjvlstkrs sokumd akeus kj tol flst mkebtckjs tobt prkvcdl flttlr iubrbjtlls cj tlr`s ka amkws bjd sbmls. Ulekjdbry mkebtckjs brl mchlmy tk suaalr ark` b dlemcjl cj dl`bjd . Batlr b fukybjt ylbr cj 6>22, tol keeupclr `brhlt drkppld. Tbhl-up vkmu`ls cj 6>26 dlerlbsld fy 6?% ek`pbrld tk 6>22. Durcji tol 2 st qubrtlr ka 6>25, tbhl-up almm fy 25% ek`pbrld tk R2 6>26. Tocs trljd wbs `bcjmy dul tk tol wbct-bjd-sll bttctudl ka keeupclrs bjd, `krl pbrtceumbrmy, mkicstces prkvcdlrs cj tol `cdst ka b wlbh lekjk`ce ljvcrkj`ljt. Tocs cs lvcdljel ka mkicstces flcji kjl ka tol prkplrty sletkrs `kst vumjlrbfml tk lekjk`ce irkwto. (Aciurl 4)
Tocs sctubtckj obs pusold sk`l tljbjts tk rljliktcbtl tolcr mlbsls. Durcji tol ek`cji qubrtlrs tol mkicstces `brhlt cs ikcji tk fl baaletld fy bj cjerlbsl ka suppmy ek`fcjld wcto b abmm cj dl`bjd. Okwlvlr, tol flst mkebtckjs rl`bcj rlscmcljt. Cj 6>26, tol `brhlt cj Arbjel obs rlamletld tol dcaaceumt lekjk`ce sctubtckj. Tol dltlrckrbtckj ka okuslokmd cjek`l bjd pureobscji pkwlr obs mld tk b drkp cj rlscdljtcbm sbmls. Jlw okuscji stbrts almm fy 21% fltwllj 6>22 bjd 6>26 bjd rlslrvbtckjs wlrl 2?% mkwlr. Aurtolr`krl, cjvlstkrs– dl`bjd obs fllj baaletld fy tol tbx rlakr`s. Batlr strkji betcvcty cj 6>22, lxcstcji ok`l sbmls almm fy 22% cj 6>26. Yocml tol bvlrbil prcel ka jlw ok`ls rl`bcjld rlscmcljt, tol trljd wbs dcaalrljt akr slekjd-objd prl`csls, woceo rlekrdld b `kdlrbtl abmm ka 2.1% cj 6>26. Tocs trljd wbs `krl prkjkujeld akr okusls ek`pbrld tk bpbrt`ljts bjd `krl akeusld cj tol Arljeo Vlickjs ek`pbrld tk Cml-dl-Arbjel (Aciurl <). Vlibrdcji tol , tol flicjjcji ka tol ylbr wbs quctl lxelptckjbm cj tocs lekjk`ce ljvcrkj`ljt wcto ₭ 6.1 fj cjvlstld durcji R2 (4>% ociolr tobj R2 6>26). Okwlvlr, `kst ka tol mbril trbjsbetckjs wlrl bmrlbdy ujdlr jliktcbtckj cj 6>26. Cjvlstkrs rl`bcj pbrtceumbrmy rcsh-bvlrsl bjd akeusld kj prc`l. ‟Ebso cjvlstkrs– sueo bs cjsurbjel ek`pbjcls kr skvlrlcij aujds rl`bcj tol `bcj fuylrs. Durcji tol ek`cji qubrtlrs tolrl brl sk`l jktbfml trbjsbetckjs trbjsbetckjs lxpletld tk tbhl pmbel. Kjl ka tol `kst c`pkrtbjt ocio strllt rltbcm prl`csls (Ml ^rcjtl`ps) sokumd fl bequcrld fy b Rbtbrc aujd akr ₭ 2.1 fj. Tol bppltctl ka cjvlstkrs akr prc`l bsslts ekumd fl aurtolr aulmmld fy tol emkscji ka sk`l c`pkrtbjt Ilr`bj kplj-ljdld aujds. Tocs ylbr cs mchlmy tk sll b fcaurebtld `brhlt. Kj kjl scdl, b stbfcmczbtckj kr b smciot cjerlbsl ka yclmds akr qubmcty bsslts mkebtld cj tol flst fuscjlss dcstrcet sueo bs ^brcs EFD (Aciurl 1). Akr tocs hcjd ka bsslts tol dl`bjd wcmm mbrilmy lxelld tol suppmy. Kj tol ktolr scdl, tol lxpcry ka `bjy aujd pkrtakmcks sokumd frcji slekjdbry bsslts tk tol `brhlt. Akr tocs sli`ljt dl`bjd wcmm fl mkw bjd ebpctbm vbmuls wcmm fl baaletld.
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 29
AVBJEL ― EOBVTU ACI\VL 67 67 ^VCQBTL EKJU\@^TCKJ BJD VLTBCM UBMLU (%S/S)
ACI\VL 27 ID^ EK@^KJLJTU ^rcvbtl ek ekjsu`ptckj Ekrpkrbtl cjvlst`ljt ID^ irkwto
Ikvlrj`ljt ek ekjsu`ptckj Jlt lxpkrts
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Ukurels7 CJULL, Lekjk`cst Cjtlmmciljel \jct (akrlebst)
Ukurel7 Lekjk`cst Cjtlmmciljel \jct
ACI\VL 57 ^VC@L 57 ^VC@L @BVHLT VLJTBM IVKYTO % S/S
ACI\VL 47 47 TKTBM VLT\VJ, % S/S
Kaacel Mkicstces
2<%
Uokppcji eljtrls Vlscdljtcbm
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25
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Ukurels7 EFVL, EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs
Ukurel7 C^D
ACI\VL <7 L_CUTCJI OK\UCJI ^VCEL CJDL_
ACI\VL 17 17 ^VC@L @BVHLT SCLMD
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Ukurel7 EFVL, EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 2?
JLTOLVMBJDU
6>26 turjld kut tk fl b ylbr ka rlelssckj akr Tol Jltolrmbjds. akrlebsts akr 6>25 wlrl bibcj mkwlrld bjd tol rlelssckj cs lxpletld tk ekjtcjul tocs ylbr. Akr 6>24, tol lekjk`ce kutmkkh rl`bcjs sufduld8 ID^ irkwto cs lxpletld tk fl gust bfkvl tol ocstkrcebm bvlrbil (2.6%) akr tol rl`bcjdlr ka tol akrlebst plrckd. (Aciurl 2) Kur ebutckus vclw akr tol `ldcu` tlr` cs ujdlrpcjjld fy tol `kvl`ljts ka tol KLED ek`pksctl mlbdcji cjdcebtkr akr Tol Jltolrmbjds. Tocs cjdcebtkr, dlscijld tk prkvcdl lbrmy scijbms ka turjcji pkcjts fltwllj lxpbjsckjs bjd smkwdkwjs ka lekjk`ce betcvcty, ekjtrbetld scijcacebjtmy cj tol slekjd obma ka 6>22 bjd obs jkt sokwj rlekvlry ylt. (Aciurl 6) tbhl-up aciurls ekjtcjuld tk fl wlbh, bs keeupclrs rl`bcj ebutckus bjd prlalr tk lxtljd lxpcrcji ekjtrbets, katlj akr b rlmbtcvlmy sokrt plrckd bt abvkurbfml tlr`s. B ju`flr ka trljds cj tol kaacel keeupclr `brhlt suiilst tobt auturl dl`bjd akr spbel wcmm ekjtcjul tk fl sufduld. Trljds sueo bs tol ”Jlw Ykrmd ka Ykrhcji‐ (woceo cjemudls `krl amlxcfcmcty bjd wkrh-ark`ok`l kptckjs), ekst ekjseckusjlss ka ek`pbjcls, ekjeljtrbtckj ka kaacel betcvctcls, `lrilrs bjd bequcsctckjs, bjd sustbcjbfcmcty suiilst tobt kaacel spbel plr l`pmkyll wcmm dlemcjl aurtolr cj tol auturl.
Bmtokuio kvlrbmm vbebjey rl`bcjs bt rlmbtcvlmy ocio mlvlms dul tk bj lxelss suppmy, tolrl brl scijcacebjt scijcacebjt dcaalrljels fltwllj suf`brhlts cj tocs rlsplet. ^rc`l cjjlr ecty bjd EFD mkebtckjs cj B`stlrdb` bpplbr tk fl abcrmy rlscmcljt tk abmmcji dl`bjd bjd vbebjey cj tolsl prc`l mkebtckjs ekjtcjuls tk dlemcjl. (Aciurl 5) Akmmkwcji tol sufstbjtcbm abmm cj rlbm plrskjbm dcspksbfml cjek`l, turjkvlr ekjtcjuld tk dlerlbsl. Kvlrbmm dlerlbscji turjkvlr wbs kjmy `ctcibtld fy irkwto cj tol suplr`brhlt sli`ljts, wolrlbs turjkvlr ka bmm ktolr `bgkr ebtlikrcls rl`bcjs pbrtceumbrmy allfml. (Aciurl 4) Dl`bjd akr prc`l rltbcm mkebtckjs ark` fkto dk`lstce bjd cjtlrjbtckjbm rltbcmlrs rl`bcjs strkji bs tolsl bssurl dljsl pldlstrcbj amkws bjd skmcd turjkvlr. Okwlvlr, rltbcm cj slekjdbry mkebtckjs ekjtcjuls tk suaalr ark` mkwlr rltbcm spljdcji mlvlms. Tocs cs `kst emlbrmy lvcdljt cj tol rlmbtcvlmy ocio mlvlms ka vbebjey bt tolsl slekjdbry mkebtckjs. Bs b rlsumt ka abvkrbfml tljbjt bjd cjvlstkr dl`bjd, tol `brhlt kutmkkh akr prc`l rltbcm brlbs cs pksctcvl. Okwlvlr, bs yclmds brl bmrlbdy bt rlmbtcvlmy mkw mlvlms, aurtolr yclmd ek`prlssckj sll`s ujmchlmy.
\jdlrpcjjld fy sebrecty, tol rlbm lstbtl sletkr bpplbrs tk fl kjl ka tol `kst rlscmcljt rlbm lstbtl sletkrs. Tbhl up kvlr 6>26 wbs emksl tk 2 `cmmckj sq` (EFVL) gust flmkw tol 6>22 mlvlm, ekjacr`cji b rlmbtcvlmy olbmtoy `brhlt fljlacttcji ark` skmcd dl`bjd rlmbtld tk l-ek``lrel. Akmmkwcji b strkji acjbm qubrtlr, b drkp ka tol jbtckjbm vbebjey rbtl tk 1.5% ujdlrpcjs eurrljt rljt mlvlms bjd wcmm socat jliktcbtckj pkwlr fbeh tk dlvlmkplrs bjd mbjdmkrds. Tolrlakrl, wl `bcjtbcj kur lxpletbtckj ka scjiml dcict rljtbm irkwto akr tol ylbr 6>25 akr tol `bcj mkicstces `brhlts cj tol Ukuto. Tol kutmkkh akr mkicstces drcvlrs ek`pbrld tk mbst qubrtlr dltlrckrbtld sk`lwobt. Okwlvlr, torllylbr trbdl irkwto rl`bcjs wlmm bfkvl 5% bjd tol jlw krdlr ek`pkjljt cj tol ^ureobscji @bjbilr Cjdlx sll`s tk fl rlekvlrcji sk abr cj 6>25, bmflct stcmm cj jlibtcvl tlrrctkry. (Aciurl 4) Uuppkrt sokumd ek`l ark` tol Lbst bs tol Ilr`bj ^ureobscji @bjbilrs @bjbilrs Cjdlx rksl bfkvl <> bibcj, fljlacttcji ark` b 62-`kjtos ocio cj jlw krdlr irkwto. Cjvlst`ljt betcvcty rl`bcjld mc`ctld fy tol mbeh ka suctbfml prkduet, woceo wl flmclvl wcmm ekjtcjul tk hllp prc`l jlt yclmds cj tol eurrljt trbdcji rbjil brkujd 1.?%. Tol `brhlt rlakr`s prkpksld fy tol jlw ikvlrj`ljt obvl mbrilmy fllj bpprkvld fy pbrmcb`ljt. @kst prk`cjljt `lbsurls brl b irbdubm rlduetckj ka `krtibil tbx dlduetcfcmcty bjd b rlvcsld pkmcey akr tol rliumbtld rljtbm `brhlt cj woceo rljtbm mlvlms brl `krl ilbrld tkwbrds tol prkplrty–s mkebtckj bjd tol tljbjt–s cjek`l. Tol mbttlr rlsumts cj ociolr rljtbm irkwto prksplets akr rliumbtld rljtbm okuscji. Okwlvlr, pbrt ka tol lxtrb rljtbm cjek`l wcmm amkw fbeh tk tol ikvlrj`ljt cj tol akr` ka b mbjdmkrd eobril. Tol ju`flr ka ok`ls skmd surild cj tol mbst `kjto ka 6>26 bs tocs wbs tol mbst kppkrtujcty akr fuylrs tk fljlact ark` tol abvkurbfml acsebm rlic`l. Okwlvlr, tocs ekumd jkt prlvljt okusl prcels ark` dlemcjcji fy 1.9% cj 6>26. Trbjsbetckj vkmu`ls drkppld sobrpmy cj Gbjubry bjd prcels dlemcjld b aurtolr 2.1% cj R2. (Aciurl 1) Tol jlibtcvl kutmkkh akr tol akr-sbml `brhlt mld fucmdcji prkduetckj tk drkp tk ocstkrcebmmy mkw mlvlms, wocml tol ju`flr ka okuslokmds ekjtcjuls tk irkw. Tocs ekumd mlbd tk tciot dl`bjd-suppmy rbtcks cj tol auturl.
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 23
JLTOLVMBJDU ― EOBVTU ACI\VL 27 ID^ IVKYTO, % S/S 6%
ACI\VL 67 67 KLED MLBDCJI CJDCEBTKV JLTOLVMBJDU
Gbjubry 6>25
2>4
Ketkflr 6>26
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Ukurel7 Lekjk`cst Cjtlmmciljel \jct
Ukurel7 KLED
ACI\VL 57 ACJBJECBM DCUTVCET QBEBJES VBTLU
ACI\VL 47 47 VLTBCM T\VJKQLV, R4 6>26, S/S
KAACELU
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B`stlrdb` B`stlrdb` B`stlrdb` B`stlrdb` Wucdbs Vkttlrdb` \trleot
B`stlrdb` B`stlrdb` Eljtlr Ueocpokm Tol Obiul
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m c b t l r j k c o s b A
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s l e j b c m p p b l ` k O
a m l s r u k S t C k D
Ukurel7 EFVL L@LB Vlslbreo
Ukurel7 EFU
ACI\VL <7 MKICUTCEU
ACI\VL 17 17 VLUCDLJTCBM UBMLU BJD ^VCEL IVKYTO Tktbm @kjtomy Trbjsbetckj Qkmu`l (>>>'s) (MOU) % Jk`cjbm Okusl ^rcel Irkwto (SkS)
JM ^@C @bjuabeturcji (MOU) JM Jlw krdlr ek`pkjljt (VOU)
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Ukurel7 EFU
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 6>
U^BCJ
Tol fudilt c`fbmbjels beeu`umbtld durcji tol prl-ercscs plrckd, tol acsebm ekjskmcdbtckj prkelss bjd tol plrscstljel ka acjbjecbm tljsckjs ekjtcjul tk obvl b jlibtcvl c`pbet kj tol dk`lstce dl`bjd cj Upbcj. rlekrdld b >.5% abmm durcji tol mbst qubrtlr ka 6>26 bjd b 2.4% drkp akr tol aumm ylbr 6>26. Tol QBT ochl cj Ulptl`flr rlsumtld cj strkji prcvbtl ekjsu`ptckj ekjtrbetckj, baaletcji `kst rltbcm sletkrs, lsplecbmmy mlcsurl bjd akkd rltbcmlrs/rlstburbjts. (Aciurls 2 & 6) Upbcj–s pufmce dlacect `ciot ljd bt brkujd 9% ka ID^ akr tol aumm ylbr ka 6>26, woceo cs bfkvl tol lstbfmcsold tbrilts. Tocs rlamlets b sufstbjtcbm rlduetckj rlduetckj cj pufmce spljdcji bjd tol rlelssckj tobt tol Upbjcso cs ikcji torkuio. (Aciurl 5) Bmtokuio tol stllp gkf mkssls cj tol prcvbtl sletkr obvl stbfcmcsld cj rleljt qubrtlrs, tol ujbvkcdbfml rlduetckj cj pufmce spljdcji obs ekjtrcfutld tk b ekjtcjuld dkwjwbrd trljd cj tol ju`flr ka gkfs. (Aciurl 4) Tol cjtrkduetckj ka tol K@T prkirb` fy tol Lurkplbj Eljtrbm fbjh dcsscpbtld dkufts ekjelrjcji tol rlvlrscfcmcty ka tol lurk pbet, woceo scijcacebjtmy rldueld @krlkvlr, dlspctl tol rleljt qulstckj `brh kvlr dlpksct cjsurbjel cj Eyprus, wl obvl jkt sllj `btlrcbm ebpctbm amciot ark` Upbcj. Tol Upbjcso l`pmky`ljt `brhlt ekjtcjuld tk ekjtrbet durcji tol mbst qubrtlr ka 6>26 wcto ujl`pmky`ljt ujl`pmky`ljt rbtls rlbeocji mlvlms ka e6<%. Cj tol sokrt-tlr`, aurtolr dltlrckrbtckj ka tol l`pmky`ljt `brhlt cs tk fl lxpletld, bs strueturbm `lbsurls brl mchlmy tk ebusl bj lekjk`ce ekjtrbetckj flakrl bjy c`prkvl`ljts c`prkvl`ljts stbrt tk `btlrcbmczl. (Aciurl 4) ^rkplrty `brhlts plrakr`ld jlibtcvlmy, drcvlj fy wlbhjlssls cj fkto keeupclr bjd cjvlst`ljt `brhlts. Durcji 6>26, ek`pbjcls ekjtcjuld tolcr dkwjsczcji prkelss bjd arlld up spbel cj tolcr bc` tk rbtckjbmcsl eksts, woceo cs mchlmy tk ekjtcjul durcji 6>25. Beekrdcjimy, kaacel vbebjey rbtls cjerlbsld cj bmm mkebtckjs stbjdcji bt mlvlms ka 26 bjd 24% akr @bdrcd bjd Fbrelmkjb bt tol ljd ka 6>26. Mkicstces vbebjey rbtls akr tol twk ectcls rlbeold 21 bjd 2>%, rlspletcvlmy.
Tbhl-up mlvlms ekjtcjuld tolcr dkwjwbrd trljd, lsplecbmmy cj tol `brhlts wolrl gust 65>,>>> squbrl `ltlrs cj @bdrcd bjd 6>>,>>> squbrl `ltlrs cj Fbrelmkjb wlrl trbjsbetld durcji 6>26 (`lbjcji ecreb -6>% eobjil wolj ek`pbrld wcto 6>22). Cj tocs ljvcrkj`ljt ka wlbh keeupclr dl`bjd, tljbjts obvl ekjtcjuld rljliktcbtcji mlbsl ekjtrbets, bjd lsplecbmmy rljtbm mlvlms, woceo obvl dlemcjld fy fltwllj 5% bjd 9% cj @bdrcd bjd Fbrelmkjb durcji 6>26, rlspletcvlmy. Beekrdcjimy, Beekrdcjimy, prc`l rljts ekjtcjul tk lxplrcljel b dkwjwbrd ekrrletckj. Tol ek`fcjbtckj ka ocio vbebjey mlvlms bjd wlbh kaacel dl`bjd cs mchlmy tk mlbd tk aurtolr rljtbm dlemcjls. (Aciurl <) Cflrcbj acjbjecji `brhlts rl`bcjld prbetcebmmy emksld durcji 6>26 bjd, wolj bvbcmbfml, acjbjecji rlqucrld ocio bsskecbtld eksts woceo mkwlrld lxpletld rlturjs. Tol cjvlst`ljt `brhlt ekjtcjuls tk fl pkmbrcsld cjtk ekrl bjd kppkrtujcstce jceols wcto b ek`pmltl bfsljel ka vbmul bddld pmbylrs. Cj bddctckj, tol Upbjcso fbd fbjh ”Ubrlf‐ cs bmsk ekjtrcfutcji tk dlprlssld rlbm lstbtl prcels fy kaalrcji cts rlbm lstbtl pkrtakmcks pkrtakmcks bt prcels tobt brl cjtljdld tk bttrbet strkji cjtlrlst ark` pktljtcbm cjvlstkrs. stcmm rl`bcj wlmm flmkw prlercscs mlvlms bs cjvlstkrs ekjeljtrbtl kj sleurl bsslts wcto mkji-tlr` mlbsls bjd prlstcickus tljbjts ark` stbfml sletkrs. Cjvlst`ljt betcvcty obs fllj ekjeljtrbtld cj dk`lstce prcvbtl cjvlstkrs wcto rldueld dlpljdljel ka acjbjecji bmtokuio wcto rldueld cjvlst`ljt ebpbecty. Ekjslquljtmy, prkplrty yclmds suaalrld upwbrd `kvl`ljts durcji 6>26 wctocj b rbjil ka 6<9< fps cj tol prc`l jceol. Tol cjerlbsl cj `by ekjtcjul, drcvlj fy tol wlbh prksplets ark` keeupclr dl`bjd bjd mbeh ka acjbjecji woceo ocjdlrs cjvlstkrs bppltctl . (Aciurl 1) Okwlvlr, tolrl cs b smciot c`prkvl`ljt cj tol cjvlst`ljt sljtc`ljt dlrcvld ark` tol LEF stbtl`ljts ek`fcjld wcto `krl rlbmcstce prcecji. Kppkrtujcstce bpprkbeols brl cjerlbscji tolcr betcvcty bs kppkrtujctls brl brcscji rbpcdmy bjd `ciot cjerlbsl cjvlst`ljt vkmu`ls. Bmm tol bfkvl wcmm dlpljd kj woltolr dcstrlssld slmmlrs `ciot beelpt tol wcdl dcsekujts fuylrs brl sllhcji.
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 62
U^BCJ ― EOBVTU ACI\VL 27 VLBM ID^ IVKYTO, % S/S
ACI\VL 6 677 ^VCQBTL EKJU\@^TCKJ IVKYTO, % S/S
Lurk Brlb
<% 4% 5% 6% 2% >% -2% -6% -5% -4% -<%
Upbcj
>1
>9
>?
>3
2>
22
26
25
24
2<
21
29
<% 4% 5% 6% 2% >% -2% -6% -5% -4% -<%
Lurk Brlb Upbcj
>1 >9 >? >3 2> 22 26 25 24 2< 21 29
Ukurel7 Lekjk`cst Cjtlmmciljel \jct
Ukurel7 Lekjk`cst Cjtlmmciljel \jct
ACI\VL 57 ^\FMCE DLFT BU % KA ID^
ACI\VL 47 \JL@^MKS@LJT 47 \JL@^MKS@LJT VBTLU 6<%
26% 3.5% 3%
Upbcj 6>%
?.3%
Lurk Brlb
9% 2<%
1%
4.<%
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6>24
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22
26
25
24
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Ukurel7 Upbjcso Tlskrk ^ufmcek
Ukurel7 Lekjk`cst Cjtlmmciljel \jct
ACI\VL <7 ^VC@L @BVHLT VLJTBM IVKYTO, % S/S
ACI\VL 17 17 ^VC@L JLT CJCTCBM SCLMDU, %
Kaacels Uokppcji Eljtrls Mkicstces
5>% 6>%
2>%
21
29
Kaacels Uokppcji Eljtrls Mkicstces
3% ?%
2>%
9%
>%
1% -2>% <% -6>%
4%
-5>% >1
>9
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Ukurel7 EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs
>3
2>
22
26
25
24
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5% >1
>9
>?
>3
2>
22
26
25
24
Ukurel7 EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 66
2<
GB^BJ
Acvl `kjtos batlr tol lmletckj ka tol Bfl bd`cjcstrbtckj cj mbtl 6>26, c`prkvld sljtc`ljt obs fllj sllj b`kji fkto fuscjlss mlbdlrs bjd ekjsu`lrs bs b rlsumt ka tol ‟Bfljk`ces– pkmcey. Tol jlw bd`cjcstrbtckj–s puso tk fkkst irkwto cs flcji almt jbtckjbmmy. Beekrdcji tk tol acrst prlmc`cjbry prlmc`cjbry lstc`btls rlmlbsld fy tol Ebfcjlt Kaacel, tol Gbpbjlsl lekjk`y lxpbjdld bt bj bjjubm rbtl ka 5.<% cj R2. Tocs wbs tol slekjd strbciot qubrtlr ka pksctcvl irkwto bjd wbs b strkjilr kutek`l tobj tol `brhlt obd lxpletld. ^rcvbtl ekjsu`ptckj bjd lxpkrts `bdl pksctcvl ekjtrcfutckjs. Okuslokmd ekjsu`ptckj ekjtrcfutld 6.6% tk tol cjerlbsl. Ekjsljsus Lekjk`ces `lbj akrlebst cs akr ID^ irkwto ka 2.4% cj fkto 6>25 bjd 6>24. (Aciurl 2) Bs b rlsumt ka tol lxpletbtckjs tobt tol rlbm lstbtl `brhlt cs kj tol pbto ka rlekvlry dul tk c`prkvld `brhlt aujdb`ljtbms, fljeo`brh GVLCT cjdlx akr R2 6>25 beoclvld b 49.4% cjerlbsl ark` tol prlvckus qubrtlr. Acjbjecbm cjstctutckjs obvl flek`l betcvl mljdlrs cj tol rlbm lstbtl brljb. Tol dlft acjbjecji ljvcrkj`ljt obs bmsk stbrtld tk sokw strkjilr scijs ka rlekvlry scjel mbtl 6>26.
Gbpbj–s ekrl prkplrty `brhlts brl cj tol cjctcbm stbils ka b eyemcebm rlekvlry, suppkrtld fy c`prkvcji fuscjlss sljtc`ljt. Tol mbtlst dbtb ark` C^D suiilst tobt akr bmm `bgkr prkplrty typls brl jkw cj tol pksctcvl tlrrctkry fut bs tocs dbtb cs bpprbcsbm-fbsld bjd iljlrbmmy mbis, ct `by jkt aummy rlamlet sk`l ka tol strkji prcecji cj tol prc`l sli`ljt ka tol `brhlt rlekrdld cj R4 6>26. (Aciurl 6) Tol jbtckjbm, bmm prkplrty tktbm rlturj wbs 5.?%, wcto b <.6% cjek`l rlturj bjd -2.5% ebpctbm rlturj (C^D bs ka Bprcm 6>25). Vljts akr tol kvlrbmm Tkhyk `brhlt kjmy dlemcjld >.4% cj R2 6>25 ark` tol prlvckus qubrtlr, suiilstcji tobt rljts `by obvl fkttk`ld bjd b turjbrkujd cs pksscfml cj tol jlbr auturl. Tolrl brl sk`l lbrmy scijs ka rlfkujdcji `brhlt ekjacdljel. ^ksctcvl jlt bfskrptckj obs fllj kfslrvld scjel 6>22 wcto rlmbtcvlmy strkji irkwto rlekrdld cj 6>26, bfkvl cts mkji tlr` bvlrbil. Ekrpkrbtl tljbjts brl tbhcji bdvbjtbil ka tol ocstkrcebmmy mkw mlvlms ka rljts tk abecmctbtl upirbdls bjd lxpbjsckjs.
Bshcji rljts akr Tkhyk B Embss fucmdcjis obvl cjerlbsld fy 2.>% ark` tol prlvckus ylbr bjd akr `cd-tk-mbril jlw fucmdcjis rljts wlrl up ?.5% cj R2 6>25. Bs jlw suppmy cs lxpletld tk fl mkw ikcji akrwbrd, kaacel rljts brl lxpletld tk fkttk` kut skkj bjd pksscfcmy stbrt tk cjerlbsl cj tol mbttlr obma ka tocs ylbr. (Aciurl 5) Durcji tol acvl ylbr akrlebst plrckd, ujmlvlrld ekrl tktbm rlturjs akr tol Tkhyk kaacel `brhlt brl lxpletld tk bvlrbil 9.3% plr bjju`. Ebpctbm vbmuls wcmm bmsk stbrt tk pceh up cj 6>25 bjd tol kaacel sletkr cs mchlmy tk kutplrakr`. Vljts akr Tkhyk rlscdljtcbm ujcts rl`bcj ujeobjild ark` tol prlvckus ylbr bs tolrl wlrl jk vcscfml c`prkvl`ljts cj l`pmky`ljt ekjdctckjs. Cjvlstkr pbrtcecpbtckj cj tol `brhlt cj rleljt ylbrs obs pusold up prcecji bs Tkhyk ebp rbtls obvl bmrlbdy ek`prlssld fy 1> fps ark` 6>>3 torkuio 6>26 bjd brl jkw quctl mkw. (Aciurl 4) Durcji tol acvl ylbr akrlebst plrckd, tktbm ujmlvlrld rlturjs brl lxpletld tk bvlrbil rkuiomy 1.>% akr prc`l rlscdljtcbm `brhlts mkebtld cj Tkhyk. Tol bvlrbil vbebjey rbtl akr `umtc-tljbjt mkicstces abecmctcls mkebtld cj Irlbtlr Tkhyk scijcacebjtmy c`prkvld ark` tol 6>2> ylbr ljd aciurl ka 22.<% tk gust 6.?% cj R2 6>25, b mkw mlvlm jkt sllj scjel 6>>4. (Aciurl <) Bmtokuio b scijcacebjt cjerlbsl ka jlw suppmy cs lxpletld akr tocs ylbr, tol kvlrbmm suppmy-dl`bjd fbmbjel cs mchlmy tk rl`bcj tciot bs prl-mlbscji betcvctcls obvl prkirlssld abstlr tobj lxpletld wcto rkuiomy 1>% ka jlw suppmy bmrlbdy prlek``cttld. Okwlvlr, mkicstces keeupclrs tljd tk fl vlry ekst sljsctcvl8 oljel, wl lxplet mc`ctld laaletcvl rljtbm irkwto ka brkujd 2.>% bjjubmmy kvlr tol jlxt < ylbrs. Durcji tol acvl ylbr akrlebst plrckd, wl lxplet bj bvlrbil ujmlvlrld tktbm rlturj ka 9.>% akr mkicstces abecmctcls mkebtld cj Irlbtlr Tkhyk. Tol sletkr wcmm mchlmy rl`bcj tol mlbst abvkrld sletkr. Mc`ctld `brhlt rljt irkwto cs lxpletld icvlj tol dlambtckjbry ljvcrkj`ljt. Tol yclmd ek`prlssckj kutmkkh cs bmsk quctl `kdlst. Yctokut b rkfust rlekvlry cj rltbcm sbmls (Aciurl 1), dkwjwbrd prlssurl kj rljts wcmm ekjtcjul cj tol wlbhlr suf-`brhlts. Ulmletcvl kppkrtujctcls `by lxcst akr ikkd bsslts cj tol prc`l mkebtckjs kr wolrl bsslt `bjbil`ljt ebj fl jktbfmy c`prkvld.
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 65
GB^BJ ― EOBVTU
ACI\VL 27 EK@^KUCTL F\UCJLUU EKJDCTCKJU CJDL_ Vlbm ID^
ACI\VL 67 67 C^D BJJ\BMCWLD TKTBM VLT\VJ FS ULETKV % S/S Kaacel Bmm ^rkplrty ^rkplrty
Bvi. 2336 - 6>22
6.<%
Vlscdljtcbm Ktolr
Vltbcm
6<% 6>%
6.>% 2.<% 2.>% >.<% >.>% ->.<% -2.>% 6>22
6>26
6>25A
6>24A
2<% 2>% <% >% -<% -2>% -2<% ><
>1
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Ukurels7 Ebfcjlt Kaacel, Ekjsljsus Lekjk`ces
Ukurel7 C^D
ACI\VL 57 KAACEL VLJTBM, QBEBJES VBTL BJD U\^^MS OCUTKVS BJD AKVLEBUT
ACI\VL 47 47 VLUCDLJTCBM EB^ VBTL TVLJDU
Jlw Uuppmy bs % ka Utkeh (IAB tsufk) Qbebjey % Vljt plr tsufk 69,>>>
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65,>>>
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Jktl7 rlalrs tk mbril sczl (kvlr 6>> tsufk) kaacel fucmdcjis cj Tkhyk 5 Eljtrbm wbrds.
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Ukurels7 GVLC
Ukurels7 Ubjhk Lstbtl, EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs Vlslbreo & Utrbtliy
ACI\VL <7 <7 QBEBJES QBEBJES TVLJDU AKV IVLBTLV TKHSK MKICUTCEU Bmm Abecmctcls Abecmctcls
ACI\VL 17 17 VLTBCM UBMLU TVLJDU, S/S EOBJIL
Lxcstcji Abecmctcls Abecmctcls
Uokppcji Eljtlrs (UE) Dlpbrt`ljt Utkrls (DU) Eobcj Utkrls (EU)
4%
6>% 2?% 21% 24% 26% 2>% ?% 1% 4% 6% >%
6% >% -6% -4% -1% -?% -2>% -26% >4
Ukurel7 EFVL
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2>
22
26
34
31
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Ukurel7 Gbpbj Ekujecm ka Uokppcji Eljtlrs
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 64
EOCJB
Eocjb–s irlw fy 9.9% y/y cj R2, smciotmy flmkw `brhlt lxpletbtckjs batlr b skmcd ylbr ljd plrakr`bjel cj 6>26. Tocs wbs prc`brcmy dul tk mkwlr ekjsu`ptckj bs b rlsumt ka tol aruibmcty eb`pbcij fy tol jlw mlbdlrsocp, bs wlmm bs b smkwdkwj ka prkplrty stbrts (lsplecbmmy cj @breo) cj rlspkjsl tk jlw tciotljcji `lbsurls. Lxpkrt irkwto rlfkujdld tk 24.9% y/y cj Bprcm ark` 2>.>% y/y cj @breo. Yocml lxpkrts tk dlvlmkpld lekjk`cls wlrl iljlrbmmy smkw, lxpkrts tk Ukutolbst Bscbj ekujtrcls wlrl tol frciot spkt. Tol pbel ka ka irkwto cs lxpletld tk tk pceh up cj R6, suppkrtld fy cjvlst`ljt bjd prkduetckj betcvctcls. (Aciurl 2) Ekjsljsus Lekjk`ces– mbtlst `lbj akrlebst ka aumm ylbr ID^ irkwto cs 9.3% cj 6>25 bjd 6>24.
Bprcm E^C rksl smciotmy smciotmy tk 6.4% y/y ark` @breo @breo (6.2% y/y). Batlr b rlmbtcvlmy ociolr E^C (5.6% y/y) cj Alfrubry dul tk tol Mujbr Jlw Slbr, cjambtckj obs fllj quctl stbfml torkuio tol acrst akur `kjtos ka tol ylbr. Tocs icvls rkk` akr pkmcey `bhlrs tk eut rbtls aurtolr ca jlelssbry. Vlbm rl`bcj pksctcvl bjd `by stby tolrl akr sk`ltc`l (Aciurl 6). Tol mbtlst erldct lxpbjsckj cj @breo rlvlbms tobt tol abvkrbfml cjambtckj kutmkkh obs mld tk b mlss rlstrcetcvl `kjltbry pkmcey stbjel tobj cj 6>26. (lxemudcji mbjd sbmls) tktbmld kvlr \U $6.< fcmmckj cj R2 (Aciurl 5), woceo wbs b vcscfml smkwdkwj ark` tol prlvckus qubrtlr bjd b ylbr bik. Tol kaacel sletkr sbw tol `kst betcvcty wcto bm`kst \U $2.1 fcmmckj ka trbjsbetckjs rlekrdld. Ktolr tobj tol dk`cjbtckj dk`cjbtckj ka dk`lstce dk`lstce ljd-uslrs ljd-uslrs woceo obs mld tk mkw bvbcmbfcmcty ka lj-fmke bsslts, biirlsscvl prcecji bmsk `bhls ct eobmmljicji akr yclmd-drcvlj cjvlstkrs. Kvlr tol mkji tlr`, `brhlt dlpto wcmm cjlvctbfmy ekjtcjul tk lxpbjd bibcjst tol fbehdrkp ka tol rleljt rliumbtkry eobjils woceo bmmkw mkebm cjstctutckjbm cjvlstkrs sueo bs cjsurbjel ek`pbjcls bjd pljsckj aujds tk irbdubmmy cjvlst cj cjek`l prkduecji rlbm lstbtl.
Kvlrbmm bequcsctckj vkmu`ls rlfkujdld bjd rlturjld tk tol mlvlm sllj cj mbtl 6>2> (Aciurl 4). Tktbm vkmu`ls (`lbsurld fy pmbjjld IAB) rlbeold ?2> `cmmckj sq` cj 6>26, dkwj fy b `lrl 9% ark` 6>22. Trbjsbetckjs ka `cxld usl, ek``lrecbm bjd cjdustrcbm mbjd pbrelms brl rcscji ek`pbrld tk rlscdljtcbm mbjd. Tol ikvlrj`ljt cs prk`ktcji b `krl laacecljet usl ka mbjd fy cjerlbscji tol `cxld usl zkjcji bjd pmkt rbtcks. Tolrl cs b irkwcji trljd tkwbrds `cxld usl dlvlmkp`ljt bs mbjd prcels brl iljlrbmmy `krl ek`pltctcvl wolj `umtcpml usls brl pmbjjld. Tocs bmsk dcvlrscacls sk`l ka tol pkmcey rcsh cj tol rlscdljtcbm sletkr. Beekrdcji tk tol tol Jbtckjbm Furlbu Furlbu ka Utbtcstces, Utbtcstces, 1? ka tol `kjctkrld ectcls rlpkrtld `/` prcel cjerlbsls cj @breo. Tocs wbs b aurtolr cjerlbsl ark` tol 11 ectcls tobt rlekrdld ibcjs cj Alfrubry (Aciurl <). Tol ju`flr ka ectcls tobt rlpkrtld b `/` rlscdljtcbm prcel cjerlbsl cs bt tol ociolst mlvlm scjel tocs slrcls wbs acrst cjtrkdueld cj 6>22. Ktolr tobj skmcd dl`bjd, okusl prcels wlrl bmsk pusold up fy bjxckus fuylrs bttl`ptcji tk emksl kut trbjsbetckjs bolbd ka tol c`pml`ljtbtckj ka tol jlw tciotljcji `lbsurls. Okwlvlr, `kst mkebm iucdlmcjls mbeh dltbcms (lxelpt Flcgcji) bfkut splecace wbys tk ekmmlet tol 6>% ebpctbm ibcjs tbx, kr tk rlstrcet `krtibils akr bddctckjbm ujcts. Fkto dk`lstce bjd imkfbm acjbjecbm bjd fuscjlss slrvcels acr`s obvl smkwld tolcr pbel ka lxpbjsckj cjtk Eocjb–s hly ectcls. Bs b rlsumt, jbtckjwcdl tbhl up cj R2 almm tk cts mkwlst mlvlm scjel lbrmy 6>>3. Bt tol sb`l tc`l, tol ju`flr ka jlw ek`pmltckjs bmsk drkppld sufstbjtcbmmy, tous kaaslttcji sk`l ka tol c`pbet ka smkwlr dl`bjd. Vljts akr acrst acrst tclr ectcls wlrl mbrilmy ambt (Aciurl 1). Okwlvlr, b ju`flr ka slekjd bjd tocrd tclr ectcls brl lxpletld tk sll mbril b`kujt ka ek`pmltckjs cj tol jlxt alw qubrtlrs, tous rljts brl ujdlr prlssurl cj toksl mkebtckjs.
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 6<
EOCJB ― EOBVTU ACI\VL 27 EOCJB–U VLBM ID^ & EK@^KJLJTU, %S/S
Jlt Lxpkrts
Acxld cjvlst`ljt
Ikv't ekjsu`ptckj
^rcvbtl ekjsu`ptckj
Vlbm ID^
ACI\VL 67 67 CJAMBTCKJ, DL^KUCT VBTL BJD VLBM* CJTLVLUT VBTL, % E^C
2S Dlpksct Vbtl
Vlbm Cjtlrlst Vbtl
2>% ?%
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>> >2 >6 >5 >4 >< >1 >9 >? >3 2> 22 26 25 Ukurel7 Lekjk`cst Cjtlmmciljel \jct
Ukurel7 ELCE
ACI\VL 57 EOCJB CJQLUT@LJT QKM\@LU KA UTBJDCJI BUULTU, BUULTU, \UD FJ ^LV R\BVTLV
ACI\VL 47 47 EOCJB MBJD TVBJUBETCKJ QKM\@LU, ^MBJJLD IAB @J UR@ ^LV @KJTO
Kaacel
Vltbcm
Cjdustrcbm
Ktolrs
*”Vlbm cjtlrlst rbtl‐ dlacjld bs 2S dlpksct rbtl `cjus E^C
Vlscdljtcbm/@cxld usl
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Cjdustrcbm
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Ukurel7 VEB, EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs
Ukurel7 Ukuauj, EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs Jktl7 mbjd trbjsbetld cj hly <> ectcls cj Eocjb
ACI\VL <7 VLUCDLJTCBM ^VCEL @KQL@LJT CJ 9> @BGKV EOCJLUL ECTCLU, @KJTO KJ @KJTO ^VCEL TVLJDU, # KA ECTCLU
ACI\VL 17 17 KAACEL VLJTBM CJDL_, 6>>5R202>>
?>
^rcel Dlerlbsl ^rcel Cjerlbsl
^rcel Utbfcmcty
64>
Flcgcji Uobjiobc
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Ukurel7 Ukuauj, EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs
Gum-26
Gbj-25
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Ukurel7 EFVL Vlslbreo, EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 61
B\UTVBMCB
Bustrbmcb–s Bustrbmcb–s beoclvld b irkwto rbtl ka 5.4% cj 6>26, woceo cs cj mcjl wcto cts mkji tlr` trljd bjd b rlspletbfml rbtl ek`pbrld tk ktolr KLED lekjk`cls. Cjvlst`ljts cj tol `cjcji sletkrs ekjtcjul tk drcvl irkwto, fut pksctcvl ekjtrcfutckjs ark` `bjuabeturcji, olbmto bjd acjbjel wlrl bmsk rlekrdld. Tol Ekjsljsus Lekjk`ces– `lbj akrlebst akr 6>25 bjd 6>24 cs 6.1% bjd 5.>% rlspletcvlmy. Tol LC\ cs bmsk akrlebstcji irkwto rciot brkujd cts mkji-tlr` bvlrbil. (Aciurl 2) Dlspctl c`prkvl`ljt cj fuscjlss ekjacdljel cj R2 6>25, ekrpkrbtckjs iljlrbmmy rl`bcj ebutckus kj tol lekjk`ce kutmkkh akr O6 6>25. @cjcji cjvlst`ljts brl lxpletld tk plbh kvlr tol jlxt twk ylbrs. Tol Vlslrvl Fbjh ka Bustrbmcb (VFB) cs trycji tk ljekurbil irkwto cj jkj-`cjcji sletkrs wcto ylt bjktolr 6< fps eut cj @by, frcjicji dkwj tol fbsl rbtl tk 6.9<%. Tocs cs tol mkwlst pkmcey rbtl scjel ct acrst flibj slttcji `kjltbry pkmcey cj 233>. VFB bmsk ocjtld ka bjktolr pksscfml rbtl eut cj O6 6>25 ca erldct irkwto bjd fuscjlss ekjacdljel rl`bcj sufduld kvlr tol jlxt alw `kjtos. Mkwlr pkmcey rbtls ekumd `lbj tobt tol B\D `by dlprlecbtl bibcjst tol \UD cj 6>25, bjd tocs sokumd icvl sk`l rlspctl tk lxpkrtlrs bjd ktolr sletkrs cjemudcji lduebtckj (Bustrbmcbj ujcvlrsctcls obvl b ocio sobrl ka akrlcij studljts) bjd tkurcs`. Lxpkrts vbmuls brl lxpletld tk smkwmy rlekvlr, olmpld fy c`prkvcji Eocjlsl dl`bjd bjd b pktljtcbm pceh-up cj ek``kdcty prcels. Lbscji `kjltbry pkmcey sokumd suppkrt dk`lstce dl`bjd fy rlduecji tol cjtlrlst furdlj ka okuslokmds. Okuscji bpprkvbms cj jkj-`cjcji stbtls, woceo obs sllj jlibtcvl irkwto cj tol pbst ylbr, `by bmsk sll c`prkvl`ljt. Ikvlrj`ljt obvl trljdld mkwlr bs fbsl rbtls obvl abmmlj. (Aciurl 6) Ycto tol `berk-lekjk`ce eobmmljils, tol mbfkr `brhlts obvl sllj b smciot cjerlbsl cj tol kaacecbm gkfmlss rbtl ark` <.5% tk <.<%, fltwllj Jkvl`flr 6>26 bjd @breo 6>25. Cj tol mbrilst stbtl ka Jlw Ukuto Ybmls, tol gkfmlss rbtl wbs b tkueo mkwlr bt <.2%. Ukmcd rlbm lstbtl aujdb`ljtbms bjd ocio yclmds berkss `kst sletkrs brl bttrbetcji cjvlstkrs bjd wl lxplet bj cjerlbsl cj rlbm lstbtl betcvctcls cj 6>25 ark` fkto kaasokrl bjd dk`lstce cjvlstkrs. Akrlcij cjvlstkrs ekjtcjul tk fl bttrbetld tk tol rlmbtcvlmy ocio cjek`l rlturjs kaalrld fy tol bsslt embss, cj bddctckj tk cts mbril
sczl, ocio trbjspbrljey bjd ocio dlirll ka mcqucdcty. Bscbj ebpctbm skurels bmkjl, pureobsld kvlr \U $<.> fcmmckj ka rlbm lstbtl bsslts cj 6>26, beekrdcji tk VEB, bjd tocs cs lxpletld tk cjerlbsl aurtolr cj 6>25.
Tol plrakr`bjel ka ek``lrecbm rlbm lsbtl wbs `cxld cj 6>26 dlspctl mkw suppmy pcplmcjls. ”Bmm prkplrty‐ dlmcvlrld ka 3.4% cj 6>26 beekrdcji tk tol C^D/^EB cjdlx, dkwj ark` tol 2>.4% tktbm tktbm rlturj cj 6>22, 6>22, woceo obd fllj tol strkjilst 26 `kjto plrckd cj tol rlfkujd pobsl. Kaacel bjd Cjdustrcbm obvl kutplrakr`ld rltbcm bjd wl lxplet tocs trljd tk ekjtcjul kvlr tol jlxt alw ylbrs. (Aciurl 5) Tol obs rlekrdld tktbm rlturjs ka 3.9%, wcto 9.4% dlrcvld ark` cjek`l bjd 6.6% ark` ebpctbm irkwto akr 6>26. (Aciurl 4) Tol Uydjly kaacel `brhlt wctjlssld bj cjerlbsl cj mlbscji betcvctcls cj R2, bs rljts iljlrbmmy flek`l `krl baakrdbfml. Tol Acjbjel bjd Cjsurbjel sletkr, woceo beekujts akr <6% ka EFD kaacel spbel dl`bjd, cs lxpletld tk cjerlbsl ocrcji kvlr tol jlxt twk ylbrs, beekrdcji tk Dlmkcttl Beelss Lekjk`ces. Fuscjlss sljtc`ljt cs bmsk lxpletld tk c`prkvl kvlr tol jlxt 2? `kjtos. Tol Uydjly EFD kaacel `brhlt cs prkgletld tk lxplrcljel b rlfkujd cj 6>24 wcto pksscfml yclmd ek`prlssckj. Mkw dkufml dcict tktbm rlturjs brl akrlebst kvlr tol jlxt acvl ylbrs. ekjtcjuls tk fl tol wlbhlst plrakr`cji sletkr bjd olbdwcjds bibcjst ekjsu`lrs plrscst, sueo bs ocio ekjsu`lr dlft. Lvlj wcto biirlsscvl cjtlrlst rbtl euts fy VFB, `ueo ka woceo obs fllj pbssld kj tk fkrrkwlrs bjd tk okmdlrs ka bdgustbfml-rbtl `krtibils, ekjacdljel rl`bcjs mkw bjd ebutckj prlvbcms. Tktbm rlturjs ka 3.>% cj 6>26 obvl fllj rlekrdld. Uydjly bjd tol ktolr `bcj sokppcji eljtlr `brhlts brl lxpletld tk lxplrcljel wlbhjlss cj tol jlxt alw ylbrs. Ycto b mkji tlr` bvlrbil (2< ylbr) tktbm rlturj plrakr`bjel lxelldcji 22%, rltbcm–s rleljt bjd akrlebst plrakr`bjel cs emlbrmy flmkw trljd. (Aciurl <) Uydjly–s dl`bjd ekjtcjuld tk `kdlrbtl cj R2. Fut mkw vbebjey bjd b mc`ctld suppmy pcplmcjl cj 6>25 wcmm mchlmy suppkrt b `kdlst rljt cjerlbsl cj 6>25. (Aciurl 1) Bmm prlecjets rlekrdld b dlerlbsl cj vbebjt spbel cj tol `kst rleljt qubrtlr. Tol cjdustrcbm sletkr cs akrlebst tk dlmcvlr mkw dkufml dcict irkwto kvlr tol jlxt acvl ylbrs, bjd mbrilr bsslts brl mchlmy tk fl cj irlbtlr dl`bjd. IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 69
B\UTVBMCB ― EOBVTU ACI\VL 27 ID^ IVKYTO AKVLEBUT, % S/S 9%
Vlbm SkS ID^ Irkwto 2> Slbr Ocst Bvlrbil 6< Slbr Ocst Bvlrbil
1% <%
ACI\VL 67 MKJI TLV@ IKQLVJ@LJT FKJD SCLMD 2?%
Mkji-tlr` fkjd yclmd 2> Slbr Ocst Bvlrbil 6< Slbr Ocst Bvlrbil
21% 24%
4%
26%
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Ukurel7 Lekjk`cst Cjtlmmciljel \jct
Ukurel7 Lekjk`cst Cjtlmmciljel \jct
ACI\VL 57 57 ^VK^LVTS TKTBM VLT\VJU FS ULETKV, % S/S
ACI\VL 47 USDJLS KAACEL VLJT BJD EB^CTBM QBM\L IVKYTO TVLJDU, % S/S
Vltbcm Kaacel Cjdustrcbm
5<% 5>% 6<%
Vljt
5<%
Ebpctbm Qbmul
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25
Ukurels7 ^rkplrty Ekujecm ka Bustrbmcb/Cjtlrjbtckjbm ^rkplrty Dbtbfbjh akr ocstkrcebm (jbtckjbm) cjdlx, EFVL Vlslbreo akr akrlebsts (akr Uydjly)
Ukurels7 EFVL Vlslbreo, EFVL EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs Cjvlstkrs
ACI\VL <7 USDJLS UOK^^CJI ELJTVL VLJT BJD EB^CTBM QBM\L IVKYTO TVLJDU
ACI\VL 17 17 USDJLS CJD\UTVCBM VLJT BJD EB^CTBM QBM\L IVKYTO TVLJDU
5<%
Vljt
Ebpctbm Qbmul
5>%
Vljt
2<
Ebpctbm Qbmul
6>% 2<%
6<%
2>%
6>%
<%
2<%
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-2<% 32 35 3< 39 33 >2 >5 >< >9 >3 22 25 2< 29
Ukurels7 EFVL Vlslbreo, EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs
32 35 3< 39 33 >2 >5 >< >9 >3 22 25 2< 29 Ukurels7 EFVL Vlslbreo, EFVL EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs Cjvlstkrs
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 6?
29
OKJI HKJI
Okji Hkji–s 6.?% R2 rlbm ID^ irkwto `bteold tol prlvckus qubrtlr. Tol dk`lstce rl`bcjs rlscmcljt bjd prcvbtl ekjsu`ptckj, woceo beekujtld akr `krl tobj 1>% ka R2 ID^, cjerlbsld 9.>% y/y, ociolr tobj 4.2% y/y cj R4. Fkto c`pkrts bjd lxpkrts irlw bt b smkwlr pbel cj R2. Lxpkrt irkwto smkwld tk 5.3% y/y cj R2 ark` 9% y/y, `bcjmy flebusl ka tol ekjtcjuld wlbhjlss ka ka lxtlrjbm dl`bjd cj `bgkr bdvbjeld lekjk`cls. Tol smkwlr pbel ka c`pkrt irkwto bt 4.3% y/y suiilstld tol ekkmcji prkplrty `brhlt obs sk`lwobt c`pbetld dk`lstce okuslokmd spljdcji. Bs lekjk`ce betcvcls cj Eocjb rlibtolr pbel bjd tol imkfbm lekjk`y irbdubmmy c`prkvls, tol Okji Hkji lekjk`y sokumd sll irkwto pceh up cj tol mbttlr pbrt ka 6>25. Tol ikvlrj`ljt akrlebsts ID^ tk irkw bt b pbel fltwllj 2.<% bjd 5.<% cj 6>25, wolrlbs Ekjsljsus Lekjk`ces– `lbj akrlebst bjd tol LC\ brl `krl kptc`cstce bt 5.5% bjd 5.2%, rlspletcvlmy. (Aciurl 2) Tol `brhlt cj Okji Hkji rl`bcjld vlry tciot wcto tol ujl`pmky`ljt rbtl okvlrcji bt 5.4% bt R2, ujdlrpcjjld fy pksctcvl ocrcji. Kvlrbmm jlt ocrcji cjtljtckjs rl`bcjld bt b ocio mlvlm (Aciurl 6). Ek`pbrld wcto tol prlvckus rlbdcji ka 59%, tol mbtlst rlbdcji (rlmlbsld cj @breo) cjdcebtld tobt 4?% ka tol survlyld l`pmkylrs pmbjjld tk cjerlbsl olbdekujt cj tol ek`cji torll-`kjto plrckd. Ka bmm cjdustrcls, tol fbjhcji & acjbjecbm slrvcels sletkr sbw tol ociolst gu`p cj rlbdcjis7 4?% ka l`pmkylrs pmbjjld tk cjerlbsl olbdekujt, up ark` 69% cj tol prlvckus qubrtlr. Tol trljd cs ekjscstljt wcto tol c`prkvcji kaacel dl`bjd cj Eljtrbm. L`pmkylrs ark` tol CT&T cjdustrcls rl`bcjld tol `kst pksctcvl wcto tol mbtlst rlbdcji bt %. Tol ekjsu`lr sletkr rbjhld slekjd bjd irbdubmmy rlturjld tk prl-IAE mlvlms bt <1%, drcvlj fy rkfust `bcjmbjd tkurcs` bjd rltbcm sbmls. Eljtrbm Irbdl B dl`bjd rl`bcjs wlbh fut cs sokwcji scijs ka bj uptceh. ^rc`l rljt cj Eljtrbm rlicstlrld b dlemcjl ka -1.6% y/y cj R2, scijcacebjtmy c`prkvld ark` -25.3% y/y cj R4 6>26. Ct wbs tol 9 to ekjsleutcvl qubrtlrmy abmm scjel R5 6>22. Irbdl B kaacel rljt wbs stcmm 64% flmkw cts plbh cj R2 6>22. (Aciurl 5) Dul tk tol stbijbtld dl`bjd ark` wokml amkkr keeupclrs cj tol acjbjecbm sletkr cj Eljtrbm, mbjdmkrds scijld mlbsls akr s`bmmlr spbels bt mkwlr rljts. Bs sueo, vbebjey rbtl eb`l dkwj aurtolr tk 4.3% ark` tol rleljt plbh ka <.9% <.9%
cj R2 6>26. Mkebm ek`pbjcls bjd ekstebutckus keeupclrs iljlrbtld olbmtoy dl`bjd cj ktolr suf`brhlts, jbrrkwcji tol rljtbm ibp fltwllj Eljtrbm bjd ktolr suf`brhlts. Akr 6>25, wl akrlebst kaacel rljts bjd ebpctbm vbmuls tk irkw fy 6% bjd 4.9% y/y, rlspletcvlmy.
Tol plrscstljt sokrtbil ka `kdlrj mkicstces abecmctcls ekjtcjuld tk puso up rljts. Dlspctl mbehmustlr lxpkrt irkwto (Aciurl 4), rcscji tkurcst brrcvbms bjd rlscmcljt dk`lstce ekjsu`ptckj hlpt dl`bjd akr qubmcty wbrlokusls ekjstbjt. Vljts akr wbrlokusl prkplrtcls irlw 3.5% y/y cj R2. Okwlvlr, cjvlst`ljt betcvctcls, lsplecbmmy akr strbtb-tctmld sbmls, wlrl smkw dul tk tol pkmcey ka bj bddctckjbm stb`p duty flek`cji bppmcebfml tk bmm rlbm lstbtl bsslt embssls. Tol abmmcji trbjsbetckj vkmu`l trljd wcmm mchlmy ekjtcjul ujtcm tolrl cs b socat ka pkmcey dcrletckj. Tol ikvlrj`ljt cjtljdld tk cjerlbsl cjdustrcbm cjdustrcbm mbjd suppmy bs jktld cj cts 6>25/24 fudilt splleo. Slt, tol eurrljt ujdlr-suppmy sctubtckj cs ujmchlmy tk eobjil cj tol jlxt alw ylbrs. Yl akrlebst tobt rljts bjd ebpctbm vbmuls wcmm cjerlbsl 25% bjd 6<% y/y, rlspletcvlmy, cj 6>25. Tol ekjelrj kvlr wlbhjlss cj sbmls cj tol pbst alw `kjtos obs fllj kvlrwolm`cji. Vltbcm sbmls irkwto betubmmy ibtolrld pbel cj lbrmy 6>25, ujdlrpcjjld fy irkwcji tkurcst brrcvbms. Kj b rkmmcji 5-`kjto y/y fbscs, rltbcm sbmls (Aciurl <) irlw 25% y/y cj @breo batlr rlbeocji cts mkw irkwto mlvlm cj R5 6>26 (<.?% y/y). Akr tol acrst 5 `kjtos cj 6>25, b tktbm ka 26.9 `cmmckj tkurcsts vcsctld Okji Hkji, up 24% y/y, ka woceo <6% wlrl `bcjmbjdlrs. Ukbrcji rljts obvl stbrtld tk rlduel tol prkactbfcmcty ka rltbcmlrs. Tous, wl lxplet rltbcm rljts wcmm irkw bt b smkwlr pbel ka 26% y/y cj 6>25. Tol pkmcecls ka b jlw stb`p duty bjd mkwlrcji MTQ rbtcks, ekupmld wcto bj cjerlbsl cj `krtibil cjtlrlst rbtls, obvl aurtolr db`pljld trbjsbetckj vkmu`ls cj tol sletkr. Tol ociolr trbjsbetckj eksts stbrtld tk dltlr kvlrbmm cjvlst`ljt dl`bjd cj tol sletkr. Cj bddctckj, tol jlwmy c`pml`ljtld rliumbtckj ka Ubml ka Acrst-objd Vlscdljtcbm ^rkplrtcls kj Bprcm 63 scijcacebjtmy scijcacebjtmy baaletld tol pbel ka jlw mbujeols cj tol tol prc`bry `brhlt. `brhlt. Yl flmclvl tol rlscdljtcbm `brhlt wcmm ujdlrik b prkmkjild plrckd ka mkw trbjsbetckj vkmu`ls wcto prcels ek`cji dkwj kj b irbdubm fbscs. (Aciurl 1)
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 63
OKJI HKJI ― EOBVTU ACI\VL 27 27 AKVLEBUT ID^ IVKYTO, 6>26-6>21, ^B
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Ukurels7 Eljsus & Utbtcstces Dlpbrt`ljt8 Oudskj
ACI\VL 57 57 ELJTVBM IVBDL B KAACEL VLJT & QBEBJES
ACI\VL 4 7 4 7 C@^KVTU BJD L_^KVTU S/S EOBJIL
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Ukurel7 EFVL Vlslbreo
Ukurel7 7 Eljsus & Utbtcstces Dlpbrt`ljt Dlpbrt`ljt
ACI\VL <7 VLTBCM UBMLU BJD TK\VCUT BVVCQBMU
ACI\VL 17 VLUCDLJTCBM VLJT CJDL_
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1> 33 >> >2 >6 >5 >4 >< >1 >9 >? >3 2> 22 26 25 Ukurels7 Vbtcjis & Qbmubtckj Dlpbrt`ljt, Ikvlrj`ljt ka Okji Hkji
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 5>
UK\TO HKVLB
Vlbm irlw fy 2.<% y/y cj R2 (slbskjbmmy bdgustld), sc`cmbr tk tol prlvckus qubrtlr. Cj @breo, tol prkgletckj akr Hkrlb–s 6>25 ID^ irkwto prkgletckj wbs rlvcsld dkwj tk 6.5% ark` 5.>% torll `kjtos lbrmclr, fy tol @cjcstry ka Utrbtliy bjd Acjbjel. Tol Ekjsljsus Lekjk`ces `lbj akrlebst cs akr 6.?% irkwto cj 6>25, beelmlrbtcji tk 5.1% cj 6>24. Tol mbtlst LC\ akrlebst prkglets 6>25 rlbm ID^ irkwto bt 6.3% flakrl pcehcji up tk 5.?% cj 6>24. (Aciurl 2) Ekjsljsus Lekjk`ces– lxpletbtckjs akr E^C irkwto akr 6>25 bjd 6>24 brl 6.2% bjd 6.?%, rlspletcvlmy. Kvlr tol kutmkkh plrckd (6>25-29), tol l`pmky`ljt irkwto rbtl cs bjtcecpbtld tk fbrlmy cjerlbsl bt gust >.24% plr ylbr8 okwlvlr, tol ujl`pmky`ljt rbtl cs lxpletld tk rl`bcj bt b vlry mkw mlvlm fy imkfbm stbjdbrds7 brkujd 6.9% kj bvlrbil kvlr tol sb`l plrckd. (Aciurl 6) Cj @breo, tol jlwmy lmletld ikvlrj`ljt ujvlcmld b \U $2.5 fcmmckj aujd tk tbehml tol ekujtry–s `kujtcji prkfml`, b`cd wbrjcjis ka `krbm obzbrd. Beekrdcji tk tol ikvlrj`ljt pmbj, b prkirb` ka HVY <>> fcmmckj pbcd-cj-ebpctbm woceo obs mbujeold lbrmclr, wcmm lxpbjd tk bt mlbst HVY 2.< trcmmckj kvlr tol jlxt acvl ylbrs suppkrtld fy fkjd bjd bsslt-fbehld sleurctcls sbmls. Tol aujd wcmm fuy, ark` acjbjecbm cjstctutckjs, mkbjs wkrto mlss tobj HVY 2>> `cmmckj tobt brl `krl tobj scx `kjtos cj brrlbrs, bjd wrctl kaa up tk 9>% ka tolcr vbmul. Okwlvlr, tocs pmbj obs cts dltrbetkrs, wok embc` tobt tocs wkumd ebusl bj cjerlbsl cj tol dlabumt rbtl bs dlftkrs– lxpletbtckjs bfkut tol ikvlrj`ljt fbehstkp eobjil. Cj R2 6>25, tol Ulkum Irbdl B `brhlt sokwld b smciot upwbrd trljd cj tbhl-up cj ek`pbrcskj tk prlvckus qubrtlr. EFD rlekrdld b pksctcvl jlt bfskrptckj ka bpprkxc`btlmy 5<,?1> sq`, lvlj tokuio b aummy vbebjt jlw fucmdcji (Utbtl Tkwlr Iwbjiowb`uj) wbs dlmcvlrld. IFD olmd kjtk cts tljukus stbtl cj bjtcecpbtckj ka tol lxkdus ka tljbjts stbrtcji cj R6 6>25, bjd ikcji akrwbrd, b aclrel ek`pltctckj b`kji kaacels tk bttrbet bjd rltbcj tljbjts cs lxpletld. SFD ekjtcjuld tk suaalr ark` tol mbril b`kujt ka vbebjt spbel plrscstcji bt Twk CAE. Bmtokuio tol Ulkum Irbdl B kaacel `brhlt cs ekjarkjtld wcto bj kvlrsuppmy cssul, ct sokwld b pksctcvl c`prkvl`ljt cj dl`bjd cj R2 6>25.
Tol Ulkum Irbdl B kaacel `brhlt pkstld jlt bfskrptckj ka 6<,?6> sq ` cj R2 6>25. Tol kvlrbmm vbebjey rbtl bvlrbild 9.3% cj R2 6>25. Tol vbebjey rbtl cj EFD bjd IFD bvlrbild 22.4% bjd 6.<%, rlspletcvlmy, drkppcji smciotmy ark` tol prlvckus qubrtlr. (Aciurl 5) Tol tktbm trbjsbetckj vkmu`l ka Ulkum kaacels wbs \U $45< `cmmckj cj R2. Kvlr tol akrlebst plrckd (6>25-29), Ulkum prc`l kaacel rljt cs akrlebst tk fbrlmy cjerlbsl bt >.<% plr bjju` kj bvlrbil, wocml prc`l rljts cj tol EFD bjd SFD brl lxpletld tk fl wlbhlr, wcto bvlrbil dlemcjls ka >.5% bjd 2.>% plr ylbr rlspletcvlmy wcto jlbr tlr` dltlrckrbtckj fut pksctcvl irkwto rlturjcji cj tol mbttlr pbrt ka tol kutmkkh plrckd. (Aciurl 4) sbmls brl prkgletld tk irkw bt 4.<% cj 6>25, beekrdcji tk tol LC\ cj @by 6>25. ^rcvbtl ekjsu`ptckj cs lxpletld tk rl`bcj smkw cj tol jlbr tlr` b`cd wlbh dk`lstce dl`bjd bmtokuio upscdl surprcsl cs pksscfml icvlj tol ikvlrj`ljt–s jlw prkirb` ka pureobscji ekjsu`lr mkbjs ark` acjbjecbm cjstctutckjs. (Aciurl <) B `bgkr jlw ek`pmltckj cj R2 6>25 cjemudld Kjl @kujt Uokppcji @bmm cj Cmsbj bjd Oyocmm Kutmlt cj Ibsbj, Ulkum. Eobjicji ekjsu`ptckj pbttlrjs wcto bj l`pobscs kj torcat bjd kjl-stkp ljtlrtbcj`ljt brl ebuscji ekjsu`lrs tk prlalr kutmlts bjd sokppcji `bmms kvlr trbdctckjbm dlpbrt`ljt stkrls. Abst absockj ekjtcjuls tk fl tol `bcj drcvcji akrel flocjd rltbcm mlbscji `brhlt, wcto fkto mkebm bjd cjtlrjbtckjbm frbjds lxleutcji biirlsscvl lxpbjsckj berkss tol jbtckj. Kvlr tol kutmkkh plrckd (6>25-29), Ulkum sokppcji `bmm rljts brl akrlebst tk cjerlbsl bt brkujd <.6% plr ylbr, wocml ebpctbm vbmuls brl lxpletld tk irkw bt <.1% plr ylbr. (Aciurl 1) Tol sletkr dcd jkt rlekrd bjy jktbfml trbjsbetckjs cj R2 6>25. Fut, qubmcty mkicstces ekjtcjul tk bttrbet cjvlstkrs dul tk rlmbtcvlmy ocio lxpletld rlturjs. Cjtlrlst cj tol sletkr wctocj Ulkum rl`bcjld sbjiucjl cj R2. Keeupbjey bjd rkk` rbtls obvl cjerlbsld scjel 6>>9 bs dl`bjd ark` tkurcs` obs fllj iljlrbmmy abvkrbfml. Okwlvlr, eurrljt sokrtbil ka suppmy cs lxpletld lxpletld tk eobjil cj 6>2<, ekjscdlrcji tol kjikcji oktlm dlvlmkp`ljt pcplmcjl cj Ulkum. (@cjcstry ka Eumturl, Upkrts bjd Tkurcs`, Ketkflr, 6>26.)
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 52
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Ukurel7 Lekjk`cst Cjtlmmciljel \jct
Ukurel7 Lekjk`cst Cjtlmmciljel \jct
ACI\VL 57 57 ULK\M ^VC@L KAACEL QBEBJES VBTLU
ACI\VL 47 ^VC@L KAACEL VLJT & EB^CTBM QBM\L TVLJDU
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Ukurel7 EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs
ACI\VL <7 VLBM VLTBCM UBMLU & EKJU\@LV L_^LJDCT\VL,% ^B
ACI\VL 17 17 ^VC@L VLTBCM VLJT & EB^CTBM QBM\L TVLJDU
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Ukurel7 EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 56
29
EFVL IMKFBM CJQLUTKVU EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs cs kjl ka tol wkrmd–s mbrilst rlbm lstbtl cjvlst`ljt `bjbil`ljt acr`s wcto $3>.9 fcmmckj cj bsslts ujdlr `bjbil`ljt. 2 Tol acr` spkjskrs rlbm lstbtl cjvlst`ljt prkirb`s berkss tol rcsh/rlturj spletru` cj Jkrto B`lrceb, Lurkpl bjd Bscb akr cjvlstkrs wkrmdwcdl cjemudcji pufmce bjd prcvbtl pljsckj aujds, cjsurbjel ek`pbjcls, skvlrlcij wlbmto aujds, akujdbtckjs, ljdkw`ljts bjd prcvbtl cjdcvcdubms. ^rkirb`s cjemudl ekrl/ekrl-pmus, vbmul-bddld bjd kppkrtujcstce strbtlicls torkuio slpbrbtl beekujts bjd ek``cjimld lqucty aujds, dlft cjvlst`ljt, imkfbm `umtc `bjbilr prkirb`s bjd mcstld imkfbm rlbm lstbtl sleurctcls vlocemls. B ekrjlrstkjl ka EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs cs b tc`lmy, dcsecpmcjld rlslbreo prkelss. Kur dldcebtld imkfbm Cjvlst`ljt Vlslbreo Irkup prkvcdls b strbtlice ujdlrstbjdcji ka fkto mkebm rlbm lstbtl `brhlts bjd imkfbm lekjk`ce bjd ebpctbm `brhlts trljds, woceo sobpls ociomy cjakr`ld rlbm lstbtl cjvlst`ljt strbtlicls bjd dlecsckjs.
DK\I OLVWFV\J, IMKFBM OLBD KA VLULBVEO @r. Olrzfruj cs rlspkjscfml akr EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs' rlslbreo betcvctcls. Ol dcrlets strbtlice bjbmyscs ka tol lekjk`cls, ebpctbm `brhlts bjd prkplrty `brhlts cj Jkrto B`lrceb, Lurkpl bjd Bscb. Tolsl bjbmysls suppkrt tol pkrtakmck `bjbil`ljt bjd bequcsctckj prkelssls, bjd tol dlvlmkp`ljt ka jlw prkduet ekjelpts. Ol ek``ujcebtls rlslbreo cjsciots tk tol acr`–s emcljts bjd prksplets, bjd tk tol rlbm lstbtl ek``ujcty. Ol slrvls kj tol Imkfbm, B`lrcebs bjd Imkfbm @umtc @bjbilr cjvlst`ljt ek``cttlls. @r. Olrzfruj obs kvlr 56 ylbrs ka rlbm lstbtl cjvlst`ljt rlslbreo lxplrcljel. Ol gkcjld EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs cj 23?4 batlr akur bjd kjl-obma ylbrs wcto Ekmdwlmm Fbjhlr Vlbm Lstbtl Ekjsumtbtckj Ulrvcels. @r. Olrzfruj rlelcvld b F.B. cj Ocstkry ark` tol \jcvlrscty ka Ebmcakrjcb bt Flrhlmly bjd b @bstlr ka Ecty bjd Vlickjbm ^mbjjcji ark` Obrvbrd \jcvlrscty. Ol cs b `l`flr ka tol Lduebtckj Ek``cttll ka tol Jbtckjbm Ekujecm ka Vlbm Lstbtl Cjvlst`ljt Acduecbrcls (JEVLCA) wolrl ol cs bj cjstruetkr bt tolcr Bebdl`y prkirb` slrcls. Ol cs bmsk b `l`flr ka tol Vlslbreo Baacjcty Irkup ka tol ^ljsckj Vlbm Lstbtl Bsskecbtckj (^VLB), bjd ka tol \rfbj Mbjd Cjstctutl (\MC).
UBFCJB HBMSBJ, IMKFBM EOCLA LEKJK@CUT Fbsld cj Mkjdkj, Ubfcjb cs rlspkjscfml akr dlvlmkpcji EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs– okusl vclws kj tol kutmkkh akr tol imkfbm lekjk`y bjd acjbjecbm `brhlts, bjd bjbmyzcji tolcr c`pbet kj rlbm lstbtl `brhlts. Uol obs fllj wcto tol ek`pbjy akr akur ylbrs, bjd prckr tk tocs rkml, wbs tol Lurkplbj Olbd ka Vlslbreo. Ubfcjb gkcjs EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs ark` C^D wolrl sol wbs Eocla Lekjk`cst. ^rckr tk tocs sol wkrhld akr Ebpctbm Lekjk`ces, wolrl sol dlvlmkpld tolcr \H rlscdljtcbm bjd ek``lrecbm prkplrty `brhlt bjbmyscs bjd akrlebstcji slrvcel. Ubfcjb studcld lekjk`ces bt Mcjekmj Ekmmlil, Kxakrd \jcvlrscty bjd cs b `l`flr ka tol Ukeclty ka Fuscjlss Lekjk`csts, tol Ukeclty ka ^rkplrty Vlslbreolrs bjd tol Cjvlst`ljt ^rkplrty Akru`.
2 Bsslts ujdlr `bjbil`ljt (B\@) rlalrs tk abcr `brhlt vbmul ka rlbm lstbtl-rlmbtld bsslts wcto rlsplet tk woceo EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs prkvcdls, kj b imkfbm fbscs, kvlrsciot, cjvlst`ljt `bjbil`ljt slrvcels bjd ktolr bdvcel, bjd woceo iljlrbmmy ekjscsts ka prkplrtcls bjd rlbm lstbtl-rlmbtld mkbjs8 sleurctcls pkrtakmcks8 bjd cjvlst`ljts cj kplrbtcji ek`pbjcls, gkcjt vljturls bjd cj prcvbtl rlbm lstbtl aujds ujdlr cts aujd ka aujds prkirb`. Tocs B\@ cs cjtljdld prcjecpbmmy tk rlamlet tol lxtljt ka EFVL Imkfbm Cjvlstkrs' prlsljel cj tol imkfbm rlbm lstbtl `brhlt, bjd cts ebmeumbtckj ka B\@ `by dcaalr ark` tol ebmeumbtckjs ka ktolr bsslt `bjbilrs. Bs ka @breo 52, 6>25.
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 55
Tocs dkeu`ljt obs fllj prlpbrld fy7 Bjdrlw Bjilmc @brcgl Frbb` Csbbe Ebrrbsebm Bjjbflmml Ebvcj Gumclt Eob Gbjl Dkrrlm Bjilmb Du @bbrtlj Gljjlj Uouforb Gob Gkobj Hb``cjib Eobrmkttl Hllmcji Ilrflj Hkkps Dbjjy Mll @crcb` Mluji Gkbqucj Mcjbrls Trly Mkji Eorcstcbj @ummlr Eobs Uuj Lms Uwblj @brelm Tollfl Uocjjksuhl Tk`ctb Gbbp Qbj Flrhlm Kjdrlg Qmh Bjtokjy Ycrto Hbrlm Wl`bj
VLICKJBM OLBDU KA VLULBVEO JKVTO B@LVCEB
L\VK^L
BUCB ^BECACE
DK\I OLVWFV\J Imkfbm Olbd ka Vlslbreo
L\ILJL ^OCMC^U Olbd ka Lurkplbj Vlslbreo
UOBJL TBSMKV Olbd ka Bscb ^becace Vlslbreo
dkuimbs.olrzfrujNefrlimkfbmcjvlstkrs.ek`
luiljl.pocmcpsNefrlimkfbmcjvlstkrs.ek`
sobjl.tbymkrNefrlimkfbmcjvlstkrs.ek`
TLM7 + 2 625 1?5 465?
TLM7 +52 6> 6>6 6559
TLM7 +?<6 6?41 5>46
IMKFBM QCUCKJ | R5 6>25 6>25 | 54
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