S_D_Vol2_No23_2_1_.pdf

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3 Jun. 17

Vol 2 No 23

This is the first official Supply and demand letter, I am currently travelling so not in as many markets as normal, but I hope you enjoy. Please take the time to look at the over simplified MINI course sent to you with this letter. Over time we will be expanding on and offering, more courses, with our overall aim to make you the best traders you can be, no promises, no pack drill and no smoke and mirrors. I am a trader first, that is how I feed my family. I have a warped sense of humor, and write as I think and speak. So please excuse any typos, they are not intentional ……. So Here we go …. -------------------------------------------Well I’m on the move, currently sitting in the lounge in Auckland, waiting for my next bus, bound for Barcelona!! ‘Traders life’ .. NOT; as you get to know me you will understand I have a very busy commercial life centered around trading but with other projects from time to time. Todays’ edition will be a little shorter (famous last words) as I’m travelling into Friday evening and Saturday morning, for that I apologise, I have as much control over an airline as I do a specific market … LOL These things usually run 10 – 14 pages each week of hopefully useful material you can relate to. I write a little each day as I’m managing my trades, and talk about the industry warts and all. It’s as close to sitting with me as is possible. Don’t let the quantity deter you from paying attention. I have a small section on Gold that talks about one of the traps I fall into all the time, paying attention is key. Someone said to me this week ‘I know all about Gann‘ and yet they don’t understand his basic, yet powerful, mechanical system. I have been rewarded many times over for the diligence I’ve put into mastering it. So, todays’ focus is form reading, how good is yours, could you improve it? I know I could.

© Copyright 2017 J. Kirk & W D Gann Inc. 3 Jun. 17

THE MARKETS Each week I write a section on the Markets, trades we are in and managing, and direction on how we see the entries and exits, you should start to apply these to your markets LOONIE - CA6 We left the Loonie having a little rally, and trailing our stops.

We were finally stopped out around 7403 on Tuesday, and I did not rush to get back in given I was going away.

- 2 - 1 © Copyright 2017 J. Kirk & W D Gann Inc. 3 Jun. 17

BEANS - The ‘Form’ tells all. Where’s you weally Bean ? I listen to all the great talking heads saying Buy Buy Buy .. and know a few people sucked into that through a couple of different trade services. Why not trade the chart, why the need to Guess – I’ve spoken so many times about hi probability trades, I think, well for me anyway, that’s where the money is. Additionally if you look some of the longer term charts the lows aren’t due yet. Its only now I’m starting to show some interest in beans and will try and trade into the low for the next bounce. I may be wrong but id say 841 and 796 could be targets in this market for snappy Double bottoms – too much to wish for really !! We left last week short beans as per the chart below.


Here is the current position going into Thursdays trade – I’ve moved my stop down expecting a pop, but it’s been a nice trade, I’ve left the Currency tool on you can see the profit per contract on the balance of our position. I don’t do it often as I don’t like to push monetary value, but I was reminded this week talking to a trader, we are not here for a haircut!


GOLD Now I wanted to talk a little about parallax error, or what the mind sees as opposed to what is there, I may have spoken about this before – but it’s something that plays havoc with me when I’m not paying attention. It‘s this pattern here.

I’ve numbered the bars below (not all of them) the issue for me is when I’m not paying attention I misread the swings. By Bar 1 I’m looking for long trades, we have an overbalance in price to the upside and have taken out a previous lower top, by definition the trend is up. Here is the issue, by bar 3 as marked, I’m looking at a reversal (bar 1) and reversal (bar 3) and I see visually a lower top … right? ……. WRONG ! If I do see that it changes the way I handle bars 4,5 and 6.


What I see as my eyes play tricks on me is a lower top at bar 3 … WRONG


Below is what the Swing chart ACTUALLY looked like, which gave us a great long trade.

Reading the swing chart properly, reading the form, will make you more money than any other thing I’ve discovered. If I was not paying attention, I would have missed that trade based on my eyes assuming the reversal bar on bar 1 would create a higher bottom, and then bar 3 looking like a lower top. So the trade looks like this:


It may pay to look back over your market and see if you have been caught like this before, as I say it’s one of the things I have to be very careful about as I watch so many markets. DON’T rely on software it does not always get it right, learn to see these things for yourself.


AUSSIE DOLLAR - DA6 A comment in the Aussie dollar – This market has been “grinding“ higher the last 3 weeks, I define that as lots of inside bars and outside bars not making much progress, un able to achieve 50% of the last reasonable range, years of experience tell me to leave these things alone. At the end of last week we were left with a potential FLT – now I have not done much work on this but the follow through to the downside was an over balance in price, and we got a 2 bar Pop to create the second lower top and a shorting opportunity. Thursday and we were filled short, have already taken 2/3rds off at ½ R:R and been able to move our stops down to at least cover commissions.


POSITIONS Well we are still in 3 positions, my preference when travelling is to be flat, but I’m trying to keep this rolling along for you guys. The Aussie has an overall profit as we have already taken 2/3rds of our position off and moved out stops down. The remaining contracts have about $370 each risk. Beans and gold are Profitable. DATE

L / S

Market

ENTRY

Current STOP

23 May

S

Beans - ZSEN

952

923

Risk per remaining contract 1450

26 May

L

GCE

1260

1261

100

1 June

S

AUSSIE DA6

7418

7455

370

*Red means at risk - Black is in profit, per contract based on current Stop, on any remaining open positions, Profit may already have been taken on 2/3rds of the opening position size – meaning a loss on the remaining position does not necessarily mean a loss on the overall trade. (I do my best to check the numbers and dates I transpose, but sometimes I’m a bit dyslexic and mistype one - I apologise in advance)

I hope you enjoyed the first edition – I look forward to working with you and assisting you meet your trading goals, and to find success with W D Ganns’ methods. It is a journey, one that may prove to be a life times work for me, it was for Gann, but a journey well worthwhile, and you do not need to be GANN to make a living with his methods – just don’t complicate it. Have a great week & may the GoFR be with you ….. J


S_D_Vol2_No23_2_1_.pdf

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