Red Chip Poker: Late Position Written by Doug Hull, James Sweeney, Christian Soto www.RedChipPoker.com
Red Chip Poker: Late Position
Copyright © 2014 by Doug Hull & James Sweeney All rights reserved. This book or any portion portion thereof may not be reproduced or used in any manner whatsoever without the express written written permission of the publisher except for the use of brief quotations in a book review. First Printing, 2014 v2 www.RedChipPoker.com
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All rights reserved. ISBN-13: 9781495421273
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Introduction
Symbol
Meaning Difficulty 1 of 4
Too loose Too tight Played out of position Bet sizing tell Maximizing value Making a thin value bet Player has predictable or straightforward play Bluffing with an empty or nearly empty range Tilty, or lashing out Slowplay Changing gears Floating, intention to bluff later Bluff Hand reading or bad hand reading Fold Limiting call (better would have raised) Playing the odds correctly All-in pre-flop Aggressive
3
Red Chip Poker: Late Position
Hands hand
Weak Hands That are Ahead
1 hand
20 Betting Straights on Flush Boards
2 hand
Facing a Turn Check-Raise in a Three-Bet Pot
Inducing a Squeeze
Thin Value on an Awful River
7
4
page
37 Double the Floats for Double the Fun
6 hand
page
33
5 hand
page
28
4 hand
page
24
3 hand
page
Page
44 Turning a Medium Pair into a Big Bluff
page
49
Introduction
Hands hand
Range Merging with an Overbet
8 hand
56 Limp-Shoving to Exploit the Table
9 hand
Fish in the Middle
Taking a Passive Line Against Aggressive Players
page
76 Big implied Odds with Big Stacks
12 hand
page
70
11 hand
page
61
10 hand
page
page
81 Failed Bluff Gets Bailed Out
13
page
84 Missions
page
87
5
Red Chip Poker: Late Position
Acknowledgements Doug Hull Thank you to Bill, Martin and the rest of the WPDG regulars in Las Vegas that created a great study group and gave a venue for James and I to meet and eventually form this partnership. Thanks to Laura for all the tireless editing. She is the best poker player that has never played a hand of poker. James “SplitSuit” Sweeney I would first and foremost like to thank my fiancé Denae and son Prestyn. Without their unwavering support I would have never finished this book. I love you both! I would also like to thank my parents, sister, and friends for their lifetime of support. A special thanks to my collaborative authors Doug Hull and Christian Soto for creating a great atmosphere to write and share our knowledge. And a final thank you to Chris “Cwar” Warren, TDK, Greg Walker, every student, every customer, and every single person who has given me constructive criticism throughout the years. Cheers! Christian Soto First and foremost, I would like to thank my family for an astounding amount of patience throughout the writing of this book and all their continued support throughout my life. My best friends, Sean Meyer and Paul Alarcon, for their words of encouragement from day one on this journey. For entire the East Coast poker community, thank you, for providing a great atmosphere to play, learn, and grow as a poker player. Enjoy the read.
6
Introduction
Guide to Reading These Hands (Adapted from Poker Plays You Can Use by Doug Hull) This book is laid out differently than other poker books. A tabular format is used so that all the relevant stack sizes, positions, holdings and table images are easily seen during every street. $2-$5 Foxwoods UTG
Image:
Action:
Hand:
LAG
Call/Call
Starting Stack: $450
… Cutoff
Bad regular
Call/Fold
…
… Button
Hero
$30
Covers
In this format, the action of each player is in the action column. If a player makes multiple actions per street, they are separated by slashes. This hand would be written out as follows: “A Loose Aggressive player limps Under the Gun. It is folded to a bad regular in the cutoff who also limps. Hero raises on the Button and only the LAG calls.” This format is continued on each street in a different table. The starting stacks for each street are updated to make the action clearer. Pot: $72 LAG
Range:
Stack:
$50/Fold
$420
$200
Covers
(UTG)
Hero (Button)
We can see that on the turn the LAG bet and then folded to our raise. The other thing you will notice is that each chapter starts with a table showing the Villain’s flaw, the difficulty rating of the play we made, and the exploit that we used. The icons are there to make it very fast to flip through the book for the situations you are looking for later.
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Red Chip Poker: Late Position
A Guide to Reading This Book. (Adapted from Poker Plays You Can Use by Doug Hull) This book is has two types of content. The first and lengthier type looks at different hands that illustrate a pattern in your opponents’ strategy. These patterns are identified and then exploited. The second type of content is a set of missions for you to accomplish at the poker table. Each of these missions is designed to give you concrete actions you can take to either eliminate a weakness in your own game or to exploit a weakness in your opponents’. Most opponents at the poker table have a fairly static way that they think about poker. I like to classify players roughly as those that make calling errors (too loose), versus folding errors (too tight), versus betting errors (too aggressive), versus checking errors (too passive). This makes them fall into predictable errors. When someone is predictable, they are exploitable. This book is all about identifying typical patterns and how to exploit them. For example, players are often announcing how they feel about their hands with bet sizing tells. This book shows you what to do when they fail at information hiding in this way. When you have embraced the lessons of this book, you will find it much easier to fire in big bluffs. You will no longer be thinking about your own weak hand but instead will be thinking about the Villain’s weak range. You can fearlessly fire when your focus is on the opponent’s cards rather than your own. The hand reviews allow you to hear my inner dialog as a hand unfolds. The authors are all aggressive players, but it is not wild flinging of chips. It is a cold, calculated brand of aggression that is designed to get better hands to fold and worse hands to call. This book will teach you to deviate from the typical strategies that most people use. You will then be able to adopt this much more exploitive and aggressive style. It will take a lot of work to get from here to there, but it will be worth it. The missions in the later part of the book will give you the roadmap to get there. They are not there to be simply read. They are there as milestones for you to reach for on your path to better poker.
8
Introduction
Introductory Tools This should not be your first poker book and probably not your second or third either. There is an expectation that the reader has a baseline understanding of the game. We use some tools in this book to help with the math away from the table. Using these tools after a session will help tune your intuition for when you are playing in real-time. Here are some recommended concepts and tools that will help in understanding this book and poker in general. All links below are on RedChipPoker.com. http://redchippoker.com/important-poker-tools-concepts/
Combos Combos, Combinations, Combinatorics...they all mean the same thing. They mean we are looking at hands from a mathematical point of view and counting the ways our opponent can make certain hands. If you are totally new to the concept you should start with this short and sweet video from ThePokerBank.com:
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Red Chip Poker: Late Position
Starting from preflop, we know that a player can have: Six combos of any pocket pair
Four combos of any suited hand
Twelve combos of any unsuited hand
Sixteen combos of any unpaired hand (which includes both the suited and unsuited combos) This is very simple and a basic building block of understanding preflop combinations. Next we can look at blockers and how those influence the equation. Say for instance we have Ad7d and we are trying to figure out how many combinations of AK our opponent can have. Well because we have the Ad it's impossible for our opponent to have AdKd since there is only one Ad in the entire deck. Similarly, our opponent cannot have AdKs, AdKh, AdKc either. Due to our Ad blocker we know our opponent's possible AK combos have been reduced from 16 down to 12. We can also use the concept of combos postflop. For instance, assume the flop is As Qs 8h. We know that there are: • • • •
10
6 combos of an non-set pocket pair like 22 3 combos of any set like 88 (8c8s, 8c8d, 8s8d) 12 combos of any AK (3 unseen Aces * 4 unseen Kings) 9 combos of top two pair (3 unseen Aces * 3 unseen Queens)
Introduction
We can also use the concept of blockers postflop. For instance, because the As is on the board it is impossible for someone to have AsKs. If someone would only have AQ suited in their preflop range then they can only have 3 combos of top two pair (AdQd, AcQc, AhQh). If you need some extra material on this concept check out this video:
In this book we discuss combos and blockers to hand read and calculate the EV of various lines. These concepts may seem a little technical at first, but with some practice they will become second nature and help you become a great hand reader. Expected Value (EV) EV, short for expected value, is the mathematical way of saying “this play is expected to net me $X in the longrun.” If you are not comfortable with EV formulas yet watch this video so that the formula EV = (%W*$W)-(%L*$L) is no longer petrifying.
11
Red Chip Poker: Late Position
Equity Calculators We use equity calculations quite often when analyzing hands away from the table. This allows us to more accurately gauge the correctness of our lines, as well as develop intuition when estimating equities in real-time. If you do not already have an equity calculator we suggest this free calculator from PokerStrategy.com. You can learn how to use this software with this free video from ThePokerBank.com
12
Introduction
We always start by entering either hands or ranges and then simply evaluating their equities. You can enter a single hand by going here:
Or you can enter a range by going here:
If there are multiple players involved you can always enter their hole cards or ranges as well by repeating this process. Once you have all the hands/ranges input, just click “Evaluate” to see their respective equities.
13
Red Chip Poker: Late Position
You can also enter Flop, Turn, and River cards if the hand went postflop. To do this just go here:
Then make sure to click Evaluate again to update the equities with the new information.
14
Introduction
There are lots of equity calculations in the book that we use to find the best lines. Estimating your opponent's range of hands to input into an equity calculator can be tricky, but with practice and experience you will get better at hand reading. The only bad news is that you will not have time to use an equity calculator at the table, but enough off-table practice will allow you to more accurately guess your hand's equity and thus take better mathematical lines. Fold Equity Calculators
There are many times in this book when we use a Fold Equity Calculator to estimate how many folds we need to make a +EV shove. The exact tool that we use is the FE Calculator from FPPPro.com. Here is a quick video showing you how to use it:
15
Red Chip Poker: Late Position
To use this tool we just need four pieces of information: • • • •
The effective stack size The estimated equity of our hand The current pot size The size of any bet or raise we are facing
The effective stack size is how much we are risking when shoving. We can figure out estimated equity using an equity calculator. The current pot size is how much money is in the middle before we shove. And we also fill in the size of any bet or raise, if applicable. So if we take an example where the pot is $80 and we are planning to open-shove a pure bluff with zero equity for $50, we can fill everything in like this:
16
Introduction
This tells us that villain needs to fold at least 38% of the time for this to be 0EV, or breakeven. So if our opponent would fold more than 38% of the time it would be a +EV shove, and if he would fold less than 38% of the time it would be a -EV shove.
Just like equity calculations, we do not have the time to use them at the table, but enough practice with them off the table will help us understand inflection points more easily. Flopzilla Flopzilla is an excellent tool that is used for understanding how ranges hit boards. You can also explore combinations, range strengths, and how certain hole cards hit flops. This video from ThePokerBank.com gives you a free in-depth introduction to this powerful piece of software.
17
Red Chip Poker: Late Position
Hand Reading Everything we do in poker is based upon our opponent's range. Good hand reading skills will allow you to pick off bluffs, properly estimate your equities, and play better both preflop and postflop. This video shows you the “3 L's Of Hand Reading” to give you a framework for putting players on a better range of hands.
Fold Equity charts Fold equity calculators find out how often the Villain must fold in a situation to make a shove correct. The calculators take in the size of pot and bets. They also take the equity of your hand when you are called. All of these calculators that we found take in a specific number for your equity when called and also take a specific percentage that the villain will fold to your shove. These two things are hard to estimate. We created new visualization that allows for a full range of values for these two inputs:
18
Introduction
EV of shove of $90 into a pot of $23 over a bet of $10 100
25
90 80
5 2 0
70 t n e c r e p d l o F
60 50
0 5
0
- 2 5
5 2
40 30
- 5 0
- 2 5
20 10 - 7 5 0 0
0 5
5 7
0
5 2
20
40 60 Win percent wh en call ed
80
100
In this chart, the contour lines represent locations of equal Expected Value. We of course want high expected value. The highest point is in the lower right where we win 100% of the time when called and they fold 0% of the time, i.e. they always call us when we have the nuts. The lowest point is on the lower right where we always lose when called and they always call. We can see that on the top of the chart the expected value is the same regardless of the equity when called. This makes sense because the top of the chart means they always fold. These charts show us that the more likely the Villain is to fold, the more often we should bet. See the line labelled “0”. On the extreme left if they fold 80% of the time, it does not matter what our cards are, we break even on the shove. Since our hand almost always has some equity when called we actually move horizontally to the right from that point and are moving into +EV spaces.
19
Red Chip Poker: Late Position
Weak Hands That are Ahead
(Villain’s flaw)
(Difficulty rating)
(Hero’s exploit)
With good post-flop skills, you can make the best of a bad situation. I entered this hand light, simply as a button isolation. Just picking up loose cash from limpers can be a profitable hobby while you are waiting for true value hands. I got caught doing this with a dreadful piece of suited garbage, yet won a nice pot in an interesting way. $2-$5 Image: Mohegan Sun MP2 Unknown
Action:
Hand:
Starting Stack:
Call/Call
$535
Hijack
Unknown
Call/Call
Covers
Button
Hero
$35
$485
This is a pure button isolation. There is a big difference between limping behind with garbage on the button and raising with it. By raising, these Villains are put to the test immediately. Whenever we raise, we want to have fold equity. If the Villains are going to call without thinking, then we are just bloating the pot. That is rarely our goal with hands. Our call puts $22 in the pot, so a raise to $27 would be a pot sized raise. However, in this game we are always getting one or two callers with that raise, so we are better off making it $35 or $40 here. We arrive at the figure by taking a standard open raise size and adding one big blind per limper. We do this because all bets should be thought of as a percentage of the pot. Each limper makes the pot bigger so our raise should be bigger also. We are making this size of raise with a variety of hands, such as AA, KQ, and T9s. Because of this, it is really hard to put us on a range. This makes it a tough decision for our opponents. We do not want them to have easy decisions.
20
Hands
Getting called by both limpers was not the outcome we were looking for, but we still have cards, position, and initiative. On most flops we will consider a one barrel bluff, but rarely more than that. We hit this particular flop well, so we have more options. Pot: $112
Unknown
Range:
Starting Stack:
$40
$500
Call
Covers
???
$450
(MP2)
Unknown (Hijack)
Hero (Button)
Let us try and think like the first Villain. What does this small donk bet mean? He has a reason for this bet. What is it? He is betting for value against the flush draw. He believes he is ahead, so he should bet to charge the draws. He does not love his hand, so he does not want to build a huge pot. We think the bet means he has a King, but not one with a strong kicker. If he was going to lead into a draw, he likely would have bet heavier. What about the second Villain who just calls? Because of the small bet, a wide range of weak hands and draws would be invited to come in. His range has lots of weak hands like Kx, pocket pairs, 9x, flush draws and inside straight draws. If he had a stronger hand like a set or two pair he would have raised for value on such a draw heavy board. This $40 call reduces the likelihood that his range includes sets and two pair combinations. Given the ranges, the best play is to semi-bluff raise in effort to fold out better pairs. Specifically, this should fold out the weak top pair that we expect MP2 to have. Pot: $112
Unknown
Range:
Starting Stack:
$40/???
$500
Call
Covers
$180
$450
(MP2)
Unknown (Hijack)
Hero (Button)
21
Red Chip Poker: Late Position
Are we crazy? Do we hate our chips? No. The donk bettor does not have a strong enough hand to call. We can deduce this because of the size of his donk bet. With that assumption, he is likely to fold when faced with aggression. If either player has a better flush draw, we hold two of their outs and have a pair, putting us in a good spot.
Hand
vs. Equity on flop Us vs. Them 52% vs. 48%
Equity on non-flush turn Us vs. Them 70% vs. 30%
60% vs. 40%
77% vs. 23%
97% vs. 3%
100% vs. ~0%
It is unclear which flush scenario is most likely, but we can accomplish two goals with one raise. We can semi-bluff hands that beat us, such as Kx and 9x, while getting value for our middle pair versus the draws. What about the bet sizing? It is an awkward stack size for this. There is $192 in the pot and we have $450 behind. Any raise we make commits us to the pot if either player decides to shove. That being said, this raise risks $180 to win $192. Even if we had no equity, this raise only needs to generate folds about half the time to be a good bet. Because this is just under a pot sized bet, if he folds half the time, that pays for the other half where he calls. We then sometimes go on to win also. Think about that, if both players fold here just 50% of the time, we could profitably raise like this with blank cards. We do not have blank cards. The best possible hand here is KK, and we can draw out against that set with a flush about 30% of the time. Similarly, the best possible flush draw is not ahead of us because we hold a pair and they cannot hold a pair plus flush right now. We have at least 50% equity against all reasonable flush draws and are behind any Kx or Nine with a better kicker hands. Against a full range of reasonable flush draws and Kx hands we have 53% equity. A raise here is profitable.
22
Hands
Pot: $192
Unknown
Range:
Starting Stack:
$40/Fold
$500
Call/Call
Covers
$180
$450
(MP2)
Unknown (Hijack)
Hero (Button)
Once Hijack calls, we put him on a range including KJ+ and reasonable flush draws. With a flush draw we would expect better hands to bet and raise. While most turns will not be a Nine, Five, or Diamond, our plan is to shove any turn that he checks given our fold equity. When we get to the turn there will be $512 in the pot, and we will have $270 left. If we assume he calls our turn shove with KJ+, then we would have 31% equity even with a turn card that does not improve our hand. With an EV calculator we see this is profitable to the tune of $56. Pot: $512
Unknown
Range:
Starting Stack:
Check/Fold
Covers
Shove
$300
(Hijack)
Hero (Button)
The Villain is getting about 3:1 here, and he would be right to call even with AT of Diamonds versus our specific hand. However, he has no way to know his pair outs are good and he folds.
23
