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Descripción: Project Management
Project Management, Planning the Project, Project Life Cycle, Gantt chart, CPA, Pert, Planning Cycle, Operation ManagementFull description
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Descripción: Project Management Offices, PMOs, once a strictly IT focused department, in recent years, have proliferated across the enterprise. PMOs are the driving force behind establishing enterprise standard...
Project Planning and Management (EG853ME) Ram C. Poudel Pulchowk Campus November 1, 2009
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Forecasting Horizons Long Term
5+ years into the future R&D, plant location, product planning Principally judgement-based
Medium Term
1 season to 2 years Aggregate planning, capacity planning, sales forecasts Mixture of quantitative methods and judgement
Short Term
1 day to 1 year, less than 1 season
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Short Term Forecasting: Needs and Uses Scheduling existing resources
NEA for Load Dispatch Center
Acquiring additional resources
How much power stations needs to be added?
Determining what resources are needed
Renewable Energy
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Types of Forecasting Models Types of Forecasts
Qualitative --- based on experience, judgement, knowledge;
Quantitative Quantitative --- based on data, statistics;
Methods of Forecasting
Naive Methods --- eye-balling eye-balling the numbers; Formal Methods --- systematically systematically reduce forecasting errors; time series models (e.g. exponential smoothing); causal models (e.g. regression).
Focus here on Time Series Models
Assumptions of Time Series Models
There is information about the past;
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Methods of demand forecasting 1.
Jury of expert’s opinion
2.
Delphi method: Individual experts act separately
3.
Consumer’s Survey
4.
Sales forecast composite
5.
Naïve models
6.
Smoothing techniques
7.
a.
Moving average
b.
Exponential smoothing
Analysis of time series and trend projections
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Approach to forecasting 1. Identify and clearly state the objectives of forecasting. 2. Select appropriate method of forecasting. 3. Identify the variables. 4. Gather relevant data. 5. Determine the most probable relationship. 6. For forecasting the company’s share in the demand, two different assumptions may be made: (a) (b)
Ratio of company sales to the total industry sales will continue as in the past. On the basis of an analysis of likely competition and industry trends, the company may assume a market share different from that of the past. (alternative / rolling forecasts)
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Statistical Methods Trend Analysis
Curve fitting Moving Average method
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Curve Fitting
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Method of Least Squares:
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Principle of maxima and minima
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How do we know how good the fit is?
Correlation Coefficient, R2 60
50
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Simple Moving Average
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Exponential Smoothing I
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