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Chapter 3: Forecastin Forecasting. g. 1a- the ability of the organization to meet future demands. b- an explanatory model or a subjective assessment of the influence on demand. d- an in advance plan of the consumption of financial and other resources. 2a- accounting and finance. b- human resources and marketing. c- operations and product/service design.
3assume causal system and rarely perfect because of r andomness. have an accuracy that decreases as time horizon increases. none of the above. 4a- Forecast accuracy increases as time horizon h orizon increases. b- Forecasts are more accurate for individuals vs. groups. c- It is possible to correctly forecast real-world variable values on a regular basis. d-
5a- product lines and sales planning. b- capital expenditures and product groups. d- both a and b. 6a- machine capacities. b- purchasing. c- scheduling.
7a- planning for new products. b- facility location or expansion. d- none of the above. 8a- gathering and analyzing data. b- selecting a forecasting technique. c- establishing a time horizon.
9a- establishing a time horizon. b- determining the purpose of the forecast. c- monitoring the forecast.
10weighs errors according to their squared values. weighs all errors evenly. none of the above. 11weighs errors according to their squared values. weights errors according to relative error. both a and c. 12a- consists mainly of subjective inputs. b- permits the inclusion of soft information. c- involve either the projection of historical data or the development of associative methods that attempt to use causal variables to make forecast. d-
13-
b- permit the inclusion of soft data. c- consists mainly of subjective inputs, which often defy precise numerical description. d- both a and b. 14- A forecast developed by a group of upper level managers a- is often used as a part of short-range planning. b- is never risky as no one opinion may prevail.
d- is not possible on planning a new product development. 15a- staff members are normally able to distinguish between what customers would like to do and what they actually will do. b- these people are not easily influenced by recent experiences. c- both a and b.
16a- can tap information that might not be available elsewhere. b- can be expensive and time consuming. cd- none of the above. 17- An IT iterative process in which managers and staff complete a series of q uestionnaires, each developed from the previous one, to achieve a consensus forecast is called the a- Associative method. b- Linear method. cd- Diffusion method. 18a- Forecast based on time series data assume that future v alues of the time-series can be estimated from past values of the time-series.
b- Time-series is a time-ordered sequence of observations taken at regular time intervals. c- Restaurants, service call centers, and theatres all experience seasonal demand. d-
19a- is often related to a variety of economic, political, or even agricultural conditions. bc- occurs due to unusual circumstances that do not reflect typical behavior. d- is a short-term upward or downward movements in data. 20a- random variation. bc- seasonal variation. d- trend. 21is simple to use and virtually of no cost. has no data analysis. can be a standard for accuracy.
22a- stable time series data. b- seasonal variations. c- data with trends.
23don’t work well when a series tends to vary about an average. are tough variations in the data. cannot handle step changes or gradual changes in the level of a series.
24a- the fewer the data points used, the less responsive model it will be. b- the forecast is updated by adding the newest value as well as keeping the oldest. d- the number of data points included in the average doesn’t affect the model’s sensitivity by any means. 25a-
the most recent values in a time series are given more weight in computing a forecast.
b- the choice of weights, is somewhat arbitrary and involves some trial and error. c- there is a weighted averaging method that is based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error.
26ab- a weighted moving average. c- a simple moving average. d- a moving average. 27a- It is based on a “best current performance” basis. b- Apply several forecasting methods to the last several periods of historical data. c- The method with the highest accuracy is used to make the forecast for the following period.
28a- Historical data on which to base a forecast are not available for new products. b- Predictions are based on rates of product adoption and usage spread from other established products. c- They take into account facts such as market potential and attention from mass media. d-
29a- linear. b- parabolic. c- exponential. d30a- linear trend equation. bc- parabolic trend equation. d- exponential trend equation. 31a- Slope and intercept can be estimated from historical data. bc- The trend adjusted forecast consists of smoothed error and trend factor. d- Alpha and beta are smoothing constants. 32a- random variations. b- associative variations. c- linear variations. d33b- the ability to respond to changes in trend. c- the search for another variable that relates and l eads to the variable of interest. d- its relation on the development of an equation that summarizes the effects of predictor variables. 34a- a quantity that gets added or subtracted from the time-series average in order to incorporate seasonality. b- a percentage of the average amount which is then used to multiply the value of a series in order to incorporate seasonality.
d- none of the above. 35a- project patterns identified in recent time-series observations. b- develop an equation that describes the relationship, enabling forecasts to be made. c- corporate seasonality in a forecast.
36a- Forecasting model was adjusted by the seasonal percentage used in the multiplicative seasonality. b- Seasonal relatives are used in order to get a clearer picture of the nonseasonal components of the data series. c- A widely used method for computing seasonal relatives involves the use of a centered moving average.
37-
b- a long-term upward or downward movement in data. c- short-term regular variations related to the calendar or time of day. d- a variety of economic, political, or even agricultural conditions. 38a- The object of simple linear regression is to obtain an equation of a straight line that minimizes the sum of squared vertical deviations from the line. b- It is the most widely used form of regression. c- It involves a linear relationship between two variables.
39a- correlation. b- square of the correlation coefficient. d- predictor variable.
40a- the predictions using the linear equation will tend to be less accurate. c- it will not have any effect on the accuracy of the prediction. d- there will be a need for a considerable amount of data to be able to reach a prediction. 41b- a measure of the percentage of variability in the values that is “explained” by the independent variable. c- a measure of the scatter of points around a regression line. d- a measure of a percentage of the forecast error. 42- Correlation ranges between b- 0 and 1.00 c- 0.5 and 1.5 d- -0.5 and +0.5 43a- simple linear regression applies to linear relationships with any number of independent variable. b- you can establish a relationship with the minimal amount of data. c- not all observations are weighted equally. d44a- may be time-dependent if analysis of time series is used. b- may be time-dependent if time as an independent variable in a multiple r egression analysis is used. c- can never be time-dependent.
45b- the standard error of estimate. c- correlation coefficient.
d- square of the correlation coefficient. 46a- random variation. b- irregular variation. c- seasonal variation.
47a- the omission of an important variable. b- a change or shift in the variable that the model cannot deal with. c- appearance of a new variable.
48a- severe weather or other natural phenomena. b- temporary shortages or breakdowns, catastrophes, or similar ev ents. none of the above. 49ab- used to detect randomness in errors. c- a technique for fitting a line to a set of data points. d- a model that involves more than one predictor. 50ab- All patterns, such as trends or cycles, are present. c- There is detection of randomness in errors. d- Both a and b. 51a- variation. b- correlation. cd- regression.
52a- equals zero. b- positive. c- negative d53a- cost and timing. bc- timing and historical data. d- historical data and computer software. 54a- Advertising and pricing are considered proactive approaches. b- The reactive approach views forecast as probable future demand. cd- A spreadsheet approach is used on developing and revising forecasts. 55- The proactive approach generally requires a- an explanatory model. b- a subjective assessment of the influence on demand. cd- none of the above.