Big Picture BY MICHAEL D. WA WATKINS TKINS
Obama’s First 90 90 Days Early wins and a strong team mean a successfull start successfu star t for the U.S. president. momentum game – which is why there’s such incredible pressure on business executiv executives es in new roles to get it “just right” in their first ew months. The senior leader’s early actions end up having a disproportionate impact on everything that ollows. Stakeholders parse every word, gesture, and decision, straining to discern intent and assess credibility. Feedback loops, both positive and negative, are established. Momentum or organizational change builds – or do esn’t. This complex transition dynamic is no diferent – and no easier to manage – in government. What Barack Obama achieved in his first 90 days won’t guarantee him wild success or the rest o his our-year term; nor will it necessarily doom him to ailure. But how he has handled the transition matters a great deal, especially given the national turnaround he’s acing. As a result o my decades-long research in the area o executive transitions, I find it most useul to evaluate the efectiveness o new leaders along three critical dimensions: Securing early wins.. Did the new leader build credibility by scoring early vic wins tories while avoiding or mitigating losses? Laying losses? Laying a foundation. foundation. Did the new leader lay the groundwork or accomplishing top priorities within his first year? Articulating year? Articulating a vision. vision. Did the new leader begin to clearly express an inspiring vision or what he will accomplish during his tenure? A weakness in any one o these dimensions can signal trou ble ahead, and serious problems in all three are a sure sign that the transition is going of the rails. So, how did President Obama are in his first 90 days? LEADERSHIP IS A
Securing Early Wins The first goal or a new leader is to build credibility and create a general sense among employees (or, in this case, citizens) that momentum is building or positive change. That means making the right symbolic gestures, identiying and securing
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SECURING EARLY WINS
A
Laying a Foundation early substantive wins, and avoiding hasn’t ared very well in this early losses. Solid early wins (and just a dimension. Although he laid LAYING A Obama accomplished all that and ew losses) constitute a good out a broad agenda during the FOUNDATION more in his first 90 days. Once in the Oval start. But new leaders must campaign, the financial crisis Ofce, he ordered the Guantánamo Bay also lay the groundwork or has largely erased it rom the detention center close d, removed restricchanges in the first year. public’s consciousness. ARTICULATING tions on unding stem-cell research, estabA strong team is critical to More recently, Obama anA VISION lished a time rame or ending the war in that oundation. Even beore nounced his intent to pursue Iraq, and released documents outlining the inauguration, Obama complex initiatives in five policy on the interrogation o suspected surrounded himsel with policy areas, including health terrorists – all symbolic moves aimed well qualified and respected ofcials care reorm and investments in educaat solidiying his Democratic base and (including Robert M. Gates as secretary tion and renewable energy. In a speech restoring the United States’ reputation o deense, a holdover rom the Bush at Georgetown University in April, the worldwide. administration). president said he wanted every AmeriIn April 2009 Obama took his first It wasn’t all smooth sailing: Several secan to know that “each action we take bows on the global stage, bolstering hi s nior appointees withdrew because o tax and each policy we pursue is driven by a credibility with a strong perormance at troubles, and other important appointlarger vision o America’s uture – a uthe G-20 summit meeting, his outreach ments at Treasury came slowly – a result ture where sustained economic growth to Iran, and his eorts to win modest o the strict vetting process Obama had creates good jobs and rising incomes.” additional sanctions against North Koestablished. But Geithner’s Q rating reBut his pronouncements have lacked rea or deying UN security resolutions bounded; Gates is using his credibility the power (and the details) to motivate and launching a long-range miss ile. And to push or reorm at the Department o and unite a public conused and rightwhen he approved the use o orce to Deense; and Secretary o State Hillary ened by the market collapse. As a result, ree a U.S. ship captain who had been Clinton is helping the president estabhe earns a B− or the vision thing. ••• captured by Somali pirates, he stifled lish his international agenda with her those o his critics who said he was too valuable political capital and expertise Some signiicant early wins, successso and naive when it came to internaon the issues. Supportive alliances are ul responses to a ew early losses, and tional security. also critical. These, unortunately, have a smart, supportive team add up to a The president has managed to con- been slower to develop – in part besolid start or the Obama administratain, i not extinguish, the “orest fire” cause o the time pressures o managing tion – particularly given the magnitude engulfing the entire U.S. financial sysa turnaround. Obama quickly won paso the challenges conronting the countem. O course, he has also experienced sage o a $787 billion stimulus package try and the speed with which Obama a ew minor losses, courtesy o the ailand advanced his budget largely on the has been orced to act. So my overall ing markets. The negative reaction to strength o Democratic control o Congrade or him is A−. But I’ll be watching Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s gress. But the bloat associated with the with interest to see i our new president skeletal bank-rescue plan in January, bill opened him up to attacks rom fiscal can articulate a more compelling vision, plus the AIG bonus debacle, raised the conservatives. define the balanced policies to achieve it, rightening possibility that the new adGiven his ambitious policy agenda, and build the moderate coalitions necesministration wasn’t ocused or compeespecially in education, health care, and sary to turn vision into reality. tent enough to deal with the nation’s energy, Obama cannot hope to move most pressing concerns. Obama reacted things orward without building a stronMichael D. Watkins (mwatkins@genesis quickly, however, expressing the right deger coalition at the center. In this second advisers.com) is the cofounder of Genesis gree o outrage at the bonuses, working dimension he earns a solid B+. Advisers, a leadership development firm to claw back the payments, developing specializing in transition acceleration and marketing a more detailed financial programs and coaching. He is the author Articulating a Vision rescue plan – and dely switching meFinally, new leaders must immediately of The First 90 Days: Critical Success dia attention to the conservative comcommunicate a compelling vision or Strategies or New Leaders at All Levels mentator Rush Limbaugh what they will do during their (Harvard Business Press, 2003) and Your and his detrimental eects tenure. It must pull people Next Move , forthcoming from Harvard hbr or g on bipartisanship in Washorward and energize them to Business Press. Comprehensive analysis of Barack ington. In this first dimenmake sacrifices or the greatObama’s first 90 Reprint R0906C sion o executive transition er good. Surprisingly, given days as U.S. presiTo order, see page 115. dent can be found at Obama gets an A. his rhetorical skills, Obama
B+ B-
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