NATL Sugar Lyle

CASE: NGHE AN TATE & LYLE SUGAR COMPANY [VIETNAM] CALCULATION OF ECONOMIC RATE OF RETURN - WORKSHEET

Sl no

DESCRIPTION 1 Nominal free cash flow x 1000

1

2

3

1996-98 -57939

1999 -15258

2000 5337

64 1280 1564

400 8000 9778

750 15000 18333

-614 -1010 396

-2825 -5474 2649

-853 -6636 5783

* *

0 0 0 0

853 85 17.913 17.913

5333 533 111.993 111.993

*

0

0

0

* * *

0 30% 0 0

300 30% 6.6 594

314 30% 41.2 3881.04

*

1500

750

750

CASE EXH / PAGE NO Exh 8/Page 17

cane crushed (x1000 tons) Land required for cultivation Number of farmers 2 2.1 2.2 2.3

Net return to farmers From cane From cash crop [avg] Total benefit from cane

3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4

Net return to truckers Cost for cane Paid to truckers Profit margin Total return to truckers

4 ADD BACK Profit taxes 5 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4

Net loss from tariff World sugar price Tariff rate Sugar production [tons] x 1000 Total net loss from tariffs

6 Net return to labor

0 0 0

Exh 9/Page 18 Exh 9/Page 18

7 Total nominal social cash flow 7.1 Deflator 7.2 Total real social cash flow ERR (Real) ERR (Nominal) IRR (Nominal)

All figures are in USD

-56043 -12435.09 8100.953 1 0.970874 0.942596 -56043 -12072.9 7635.925 Err:523 Err:523 Err:523

All figures are in USD

Conversion rate

15000 Dong/USD 6.66667E-005 USD/Dong 7 8 9

4

5

6

2001 13466

2002 18688

2003 22282

2004 24189

2005 25938

850 17000 20778

900 18000 22000

900 18000 22000

900 18000 22000

3740 -3946 7686

4599 -3427 8026

4341 -303 4644

10000 1000 210 210

11333 1133 237.993 237.993

0

0

331 30% 77.3 7675.89 750

10

11

12

2006 20178

2007 20514

2008 20811

2009 21111

900 18000 22000

900 18000 22000

900 18000 22000

900 18000 22000

900 18000 22000

4611 2285 2326

5911 912 4999

6201 1149 5052

5696 4232 1464

6007 3161 2846

7349 709 6640

12000 1200 252 252

12360 1236 259.56 259.56

12731 1273 267.351 267.351

13113 1311 275.373 275.373

13506 1351 283.626 283.626

13911 1391 292.131 292.131

14329 1433 300.909 300.909

0

0

0

6189

6533

6741

6813

348 366 385 30% 30% 30% 87.6 92.7 92.7 9145.44 10178.46 10706.85 750

750

750

405 417 426 435 444 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 92.7 92.7 92.7 92.7 92.7 11263.05 11596.77 11847.06 12097.35 12347.64 750

750

750

750

750

14436.11 18556.55 17749.54 16817.71 20691.301 20847.6 17697.57 19342.78 23267.27 0.915142 0.888487 0.862609 0.837484 0.8130915113 0.789409 0.766417 0.744094 0.722421 13211.09 16487.26 15310.91 14084.57 16823.921202 16457.29 13563.71 14392.85 16808.77

13

14

15

16

17

18

2010 21412

2011 21391

2012 21198

2013 20972

2014 20731

2015 216133

900 18000 22000

900 18000 22000

900 18000 22000

900 18000 22000

900 18000 22000

900 18000 22000

7682 272 7410

7222 -1837 9059

7578 90 7488

8968 4898 4070

9249 3948 5301

8939 4288 4651

14758 1476 309.918 309.918

15201 1520 319.221 319.221

15617 1562 327.957 327.957

16127 1613 338.667 338.667

16611 1661 348.831 348.831

17109 1711 359.289 359.289

6884

6828

6726

6618

6504

7211

454 459 463 468 472 476 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 92.7 92.7 92.7 92.7 92.7 92.7 12625.74 12764.79 12876.03 13015.08 13126.32 13237.56 750

750

750

750

750

750

24140.18 25582.43 23613.93 19733.59 20508.51 215866.7 0.70138 0.680951 0.661118 0.641862 0.623167 0.605016 0.587395 16931.44 17420.39 15611.59 12666.24 12780.23 130602.9

Year-round workers Additional in crushing season

500 200

Sugarcane Year 0

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Revenue Tonnes per hectare Price per ton Total revenue

0 0 0

50 200 10000

50 200 10000

50 200 10000

3000 1300 1700 1200 0 7200

3000 1300 0 0 1000 5300

3000 1300 0 0 1000 5300

3000 1300 0 0 1000 5300

Costs Labour Fertilizer Seeds Land prep Crane Total cost

in 1000 Dongs per hectare Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Cost 7200 4300 4300 4300 Revenue 10000 10000 10000 Returns -7200 5700 5700 5700 Average return 2475 Alternative method Crop life cycle Years to revenue Cost in plantation Cost in typical year Revenue in typical year Total Return Average return

Sugar 4 1

Pineapple Coffee Rubber P&M 3 10 28 1 4 8

7200 11400 13125 11000 4300 5925 11175 5925 10000 14125 18000 10000 2475 1666.667 2782.5 2517.857 1102432 dong/hectare 73.49546 USD/hectare

P&P 1 0

1 0

8800

9200

6800 -2000

9600 400

P&R 1 0 9300 9175 -125

Exchange rate

15000 Dong/USD

Revenue assumptions: Average travel distance Cost to deliver (Dong/ton) Tons per load Average trips per day No. of days Total tons hauled by each trucker No. of truckers Revenue by each trucker Total revenue by all truckers Cost assumptions Gasoline Lory: Kilometres per gallon Fuel: USD per gallon Labour Average wage per day Maintennce per season Lorry cost Average cost per lorry Annual interest rate Depreciation per kilometre Gasoline cost per trip Gasoline cost per day per trucker No. of days No. of truckers

20 km 23000 Dong 5.5 tons 3.5 150 2887.5 300 66412500 Dong 19923750000 Dong 1328250 USD

12 1.2 USD/gallon 30000 Dong 10000000 Dong 100000000 Dong 12% 625 Dong

160000

2.0 USD/trip/trucker 7 150 300

Depreciation of each truck per year Total gasoline cost Total wages Maintenance annual cost Total cost

6562500 315000 4500000 10000000 4746062500 316404.1667

Dong USD Dong

Return

1011845.833 USD

Dong USD