Mentall Models Menta Models Checklist - WYSI WYSI ATI ATI (What You See Is All There Is) - Assoc Associiative Machine - Alway Always s Trying to Find the Why - Incent Incentiives/Rewards: System Gaming, Intrinsic/Extrinsic, FedEx - Doubt Doubt--Avoidance: Fast Decisions, Avoid Too Many Options - Consi Consist sten ency cy:: Ver Verba bali lize zed, d, Ben Ben Fra Frank nkli lin n Bor Borro rowi wing ng Book Book from from 'Ene 'Enemy my'' - Fairness: Individual vs Group - Clanning: Convergence/Divergence (Granfalloon) - Diffusion of Responsibility/Bystander Apathy - Envy - Reciprocity: Concessions - Me Mere-A re-As ssociati iatio on: Pa Pavlov lov, Go Good & Bad, St Stereotypes, Me Messenger - Overcon Overconfid fidenc ence: e: Choos Choose e Lottery Lottery Numb Number er vs Gener Generate ated, d, Endowm Endowment ent ('Min ('Mine') e') - Overoptimism: Newlyweds, Base Rate Neglect - Loss Loss-A -Ave vers rsio ion: n: Depr Depriv ival al,, 2.5x 2.5x,, Almo Almost st-P -Pos osse sess ssed ed:: BarBar-Ba Barr-Le Lemo mon n - Contrast: Order of Homes Shown by Realtor - Ava Avail ilab abil ilit ity: y: Easy Easy,, Rec Recen ent, t, Viv Vivid id - Casc Cascad ades es,, Fre Frequ quen ency cy vs *Flu *Fluen ency cy** - Au Authority: Milgram Experiments, Nu Nurse/Doctor (Credibility) - Reason-Respecting: Why/Because - Scarcity: Limited Time, Going Fast - Status-Quo: Default Option, Effort Minimization - Primin Priming/A g/Anch nchori oring: ng: Scar Scary y Movie Movies, s, SS#, SS#, Smilin Smiling, g, Think Think Elderl Elderly: y: Walk Walk Slow Slower er - Confirma rmation ion: Prove Existin ting Beliefs, Ignore Opposing Evidence - Hin Hinds dsig ight ht:: Mon Monda day y Mor Morni ning ng QB, QB, Sen Sense se-m -mak akin ing, g, Stor Story, y, Outc Outcom ome e Bia Bias s - Men Menta tall Sta State tes: s: Will Willpo powe wer, r, Gluc Glucos ose, e, Mood Mood (Goo (Good: d:Cr Crea eati tive ve/B /Bad ad:R :Rat atio iona nal) l) - Survivorsh rship/Absence Blind indness (do (don't see mutual fun funds tha that fail faile ed) - Framing: Loss vs Gain - Cog Cogn nitiv itive e Swi Switc tchi hin ng Pen Penal alty ty vs Flow Flow (no (no suc such h th thing ing as as mul multi tita task skin ing) g) - Affect: Emotion, Fear of Flying - Dun Dunni ning ng-K -Kru ruge ger: r: Com Compe pete tenc nce e Lev Level els s (do (don' n'tt kno know w wha whatt you you don' don'tt kno know) w) - Man-with-Hammer - Social Proof: Line Lengths Example, Peers Have Most Pull - Base Rates: Conjunction Bias, Bayes: Base Rate >= New Data - Curse of Knowledge - Pain-Avoiding Denial - Operant Conditioning: By Consequences, Reward/Punish - Attribution Error: Me: circumstances, Them: innate traits - Pygmalion Effect: Expectations Influence Performance - Mere-Exposure: Familiarity -> Liking - Halo Effect: Order When Grading Essays, Online Reviews - Four Four Fold Fold Patte Pattern: rn: Risk Risk & Loss Loss vs Gain Gain - Possib Possibilit ility y Effect Effect,, Certai Certainty nty Effec Effectt - Rem Remem embe beri ring ng Self Self:: Pea Peakk-En End d Rul Rule, e, Focu Focusi sing ng Illu Illusi sion on (mis (misju judg dge e imp impac act) t) - Negativity Dominance: Loss -> Fight Harder
v0.95 http://www.mymentalmodels.info/checklistpdf - Power Laws: 80/20 - Expected Value - Regression to Mean: Height, Performance (punishment/praise no impact) - Long Tail: Amazon, Specialization - Law of Small Numbers: Worst and Best Schools are the Smallest - Mee Meehl hl Patt Patter ern: n: Expe Expert rts s and and Low/ Low/Hi High gh Vali Validi dity ty Envi Enviro ronm nmen ents ts
- Sunk Cost - Time Value of Money - Advantages of Scale vs Specialization - Creative Destruction: Wave-riding, Stick-to-Ribs - Co Comparati rativ ve Ad Advantag tage: Ti Tiger Wo Woods & Lawn - Opportu Opportunit nity y Cost: Cost: Option Options s Not Chose Chosen n - Agency Costs - Trag Traged edy y of the the Comm Common ons/ s/Pr Pris ison oner er's 's Dile Dilemm mma/ a/Re Red d Quee Queen n Effe Effect ct - Moral Hazard - Gres Gresha ham' m's s Law Law:: Bad Bad Driv Drives es Out Out Good Good (Mon (Money ey/B /Beh ehav avio ior) r) - Ma Mathew Effect: Small In Initial Ad Advantage Snowballs - Diminishing Returns: Fatigued Worker - Critical Mass: Non-linearity, Tipping Points, M-Stan vs E-Stan - Redund Redundanc ancy: y: Fail Fail-Sa -Safes fes,, Backup Backups s - Constra traints: Bottle tlenecks/We /Weak Links - Evo Evolu luti tion on:: Sel Selfi fish sh Gene Gene,, Cav Cavem eman an Synd Syndro rome me - Tig Tight ht Coup Couplin ling: g: Depe Depend nden entt Com Compo pone nent nts s - Break Point ints - Feedback Loops: Positive & Negative - Au Autoca tocata taly lys sis: is: Dis Disne ney y Mov Movie ie Cata Catalo log g -> -> VHS VHS - Equilibrium: Static vs Dynamic - Comp Comple lex x Ada Adapt ptiv ive e Sys Syste tems ms:: Par Partic ticip ipan ants ts Chan Change ge the the Sys Syste tem m - Collective Intelligence: Crowdsourcing, Diversity - Emergence: Whole is Greater than Sum of Parts - Meta-cognition: System 1/2, Growth Mindset, Optimism, Mindfulness - Checklists: do-confirm, read-do - Invert: How Not To - Disconfirming Evidence: Disprove - Outside View: What Usually Happens - Broad Framing: Risk Policies, Decisions in Aggregate - 2nd/3rd Order Consequences: Peltzman/Seat Belts - Perfec Perfectt vs Good Good:: Somet Sometime imes s Bette Betterr to Just Just Do Do than than Wait Wait and Perfec Perfectt - Lol Lolla lapa palo looz ozas as - Pre-mortem: Assume Failure, Explain Why
