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1. INTR INTROD ODUC UCTI TION ON 1.1 Six degrees degrees – Six Steps Steps to Hell
Global Warming is much in the news nowadays and so it should be – most of the other problems we have pale into insignificance compared to what global warming might bring. In this book, Mark Lynas tells the reader ust how bad it might get. Mark Lynas!s Six Degrees is Degrees is first, a graceful yet massive synthesis of a very large selection of scientific research papers" second, an elo#uent and honest plea for action on the !slow$motion crisis! that is climate change" and third, a coherent account of how global warming would affect humans and their world, if allowed to proceed. %he central structuring structuring metaphor metaphor of Six Degrees is Degrees is that global warming is hell. Lynas doesn!t #uite put it so baldly, though a few of his adective choices clearly imply it. &ut #uotations from 'ante!s (Inferno( make the point #uite clearly by serv servin ing g as epig epigra raph phss for for )hap )hapte terr *ne, *ne, One One Degre Degreee, and for the final chapter, Choosing Our Future. +ust +ust as 'ante!s 'ante!s ell ell was organi organi-ed -ed in increas increasing ingly ly dreadf dreadful ul circles, circles, Lynas! Lynas!ss account proceeds systematically from the (one$degree world( in which we live now$$for global mean temperature is roughly ./ degrees )elsius above pre$ Industrial Industrial levels$$to the (nightmare( (nightmare( world of si0 degrees. 1or each level, Lynas Lynas sets forth the possible impacts and implications of that level of warming, as known at the time of writing. 2i0 'egrees is the dance of the devil, teetering on the edge, on the edge of the tipping point where things will burn with the intensity of inferno, a catastrophe no one will be able to stop even if they tried to stabili-e the level of global warming. 3arth 3arth,, altho althoug ugh h unpr unpred edict ictab able, le, does does harn harness ess the the stren strengt gth h to unlea unleash sh this this catastrophe in the blink of an eye.
1.2 Obj Object ective ivess
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2et in the above perspective or background, the broad obective of the study is to4 5. %o analy-e the book 2i0 'egrees4 *ur 1uture on a otter 6lanet by Mark Lynas. 7. %o e0amine the measures taken which dealt with the problems ought to happen with each degree as described in the book.
1.3 Scope o t!e st"d# %he present proect is an attempt to cover and analy-e the first three degrees of the Mark Lynas8 interpretation of 3arth as 'ante8s inferno. It aims to cover the effect of global warming and the steps that have been taken to prevent that.
1.$ %et!odolog# o t!e st"d# Given a study of this kind, a descriptive analytical method had been used in the creation of the detailed analysis the proect entails.
2. SI& D'(R''S) *N *N*+,SIS 2.1 O-e Degree (%he *ne 'egree World( is a term, derived from Mark Lynas! book on the impacts of global warming, describing the world at one )elsius degree above pre$ Industrial temperatures. 2ince global mean temperature has increased between .9$./ degrees )elsius, we are living in a (one degree world( now.
In 'ante8s vision of ell, the outer circle was inhabited by !virtuous 6agans! like 6lato, whose only fault was not being )hristian. &asically good, even great
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people, they were punished by nothing more severe than deprivation of contact with God. :ccording to Lynas, the one$degree world, similarly, is !not so bad.! %here is a laundry list of possible or observed impacts, from the return of the mega droughts western ;orth :merica e0perienced during the Medieval )limate :nomaly, to the continuation of the already observed !death spiral! of the :rctic sea ice, with its implications for ;orthern hemisphere weather and increased warming of the whole planet. 2ome, like the megadroughts, could be very serious indeed. &ut at this level of warming there are climate !winners,! too$$for instance, the 2ahel, the semi$arid transitional -one on the south flank of the 2ahara, may become a little moister. %he boreal forest of ;orthern )anada may become moister as well, reducing wildfire risk there, even as that risk increases in places like :ustralia and the 3astern Mediterranean basin. It!s ust as well that it!s not all bad, because the one$degree world is the one we all live in right now. :s the current I6)) :ssessment similar to a loaf of bread baking in the oven? may not need more warming, ust more time to !cook.! :merica8s slumbering desert, which had been proved by the traces of history in the areas of )alifornia named as @Medieval Warm 6eriod8 where the conditions were so adverse that people had resorted to cannibalism for the sake of surviving.
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In a world which is less than a degree warmer overall, the western Anited 2tates could once again be plagued by perennial droughts – devastating agriculture and driving out human inhabitants on a scale far larger than 5BCs calamity. %he perennial condition of 'ust &owls, the mega droughts can return. %he dramatic weakening of the Gulf 2tream, as shown in the movie The Day After Tomorrow, although proven wrong by the scientists, but the theory of :tlantic circulation shutdown has always been more than ust a theory. :frica8s shining mountains, i.e. Dilimanaro, the rising of temperatures and diminishing rainfall increase the chances of forest fires, eradicating the upper reaches of montane forests, by the time the glaciers have disappeared, so will the higher forests. :s the snow disappear, so will much of the wildlife and the verdant forests that tourists currently trek through on their arduous ourney to the roof of :frican continent. %he :rctic system is moving toward a new state, the tipping point, that falls outside the envelope of recent 3arth history. %his new ice$free :rctic will see e0treme levels of warmth unlike anything e0perienced by the northern polar region for millions of years. :s the mountain slopes thaw out and fail, whole towns and villages will be at risk of destruction in the :lps and other mountain regions. Many will remain unprotected and unprepared – until the worst happens, bringing death crashing down from above, suddenly and with no warning. :nother loss will be incurred from this – running out of the precious resource, water. While coral reefs of Eueensland have a vital role in protecting coastlines from storms and nurturing fisheries, no one can reasonably claim that pikas, proteas and harle#uin frogs are essential for global economic prosperity. %heir value is intrinsic, not financial. &ut the world will still be a much poorer place once they8re gone.
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%he contribution of human$caused global warming would be the main contribution of :tlantic disastrous hurricanes and sinking of the islands of %uvalu with an e0tra rise in the world8s oceans. %he first degree is ust a peek of the Inferno.
2.2 To Degrees Many people still think that a particular amount of warming will have the same effect as would a change of that amount during a typical day. &ut that is not true$$a shift of the mean temperature has much bigger effects than a shift of ma0imum temperature for one particular day. Many reasons make this true. 1or one, threshold temperatures e0ist where conditions change abruptly$$an obvious e0ample is the free-ingFmelting point for water. : !small! shift near this point can obviously mean a very large change in, say, the number of frost days each year in a particular location. >It!s worth remembering here that frosts have their good as well as bad points$$they may kill some plants, while being essential to other plants! fruiting process.? 1or another thing, temperature distributions tend to follow the famous !bell curve! shape. %hat means that small shifts in the mean temperature can affect big shifts in the likelihood of e0treme temperatures$$say, those e0ceeding typical human skin temperatures. 2o a small rise in the average temperature can mean a great many more !heat$stress! days each year. %he two$degree world is less familiar, but not yet completely strange. 2ome aspects of the two$degree world$$for instance, 3uropean heatwaves similar to the lethal 7C event$$are already emerging. *thers, like ocean acidification, will become familiar news items. While the use of computer climate models is the most familiar method of predicting future climate states, Lynas e0plains that ancient climates also give important insights into possible future change. 1or the two$degree world, the
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analog is the 3emian interglacial, which reached its warmest temperatures$$roughly 7 degrees )elsius above !pre$industrial! levels$$around 57=, years ago. If past patterns turn out to be true precedents for our future, northern )hina could get very thirsty, adding to the environmental woes already costing )hina so dearly. Water shortages could also be serious problems in 6eru >as :ndean glaciers disappear? and )alifornia >as snowpacks shrink.? 'roughts due to declines in precipitation are e0pected in the Mediterranean basin, as already mentioned, and in parts of India, where increasing temperatures are also e0pected to challenge the heat tolerances of rice and wheat crops. Ansurprisingly, global food supplies are e0pected to be stressed as global population8s peak this century. Marine food sources will be severely stressed, too. *ceans will warm, bleaching coral and degrading reefs, diminishing their touristic value and, worse, their biological productivity. Increased stratification as the ocean surface warms will decrease the upwellings of nutrient$rich cold water, making oceans less productive. :t the same time, acidification will hurt species with calcium carbonate shells, including the plankton which form the entire basis for marine food webs. :lready ocean acidity has increased by C due to carbon dio0ide emissions. :s Lynas puts it, (:t least half the carbon dio0ide released every time you or I ump on a plane or turn up the air conditioner ends up in the oceans... HIt dissolves in water to form carbonic acid, the same weak acid that gives you a fi--y kick every time you swallow a mouthful of carbonated water.( &ut that!s ust an overture" Lynas #uotes 6rofessor Den )aldeira4 (%he current rate of carbon dio0ide input is nearly = times higher than normal. In less than 5 years, the p of the ocean could drop by as much as half a unit from its natural /.7 to about 9.9.( %hat would be a = increase. %he precedent of the 3emian suggests that other changes to the ocean, too. %he :rctic would likely be committed to a future without sea ice, with intensification of the conse#uences mentioned above. Ice loss would accelerate for Greenland!s glaciers, too. %hat would mean increases in sea level rise. )urrently seal level is rising at ust over C millimeters a year$$around a foot per century. %hat relatively
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modest rise has already contributed to the increased flood risks for events such as 2uperstorm 2andy. &ut one modeling study put the threshold level for the eventual near$complete loss of Greenland!s ice sheet at a local warming of ust 7.9 )$$which, due to :rctic amplification, means a global warming of only 5.7 ). %otal melting of Greenland$$ luckily, something that would likely take centuries$$would raise sea levels by 9 meters, submerging Miami and most of Manhattan, as well as large chunks of London, 2hanghai, &angkok and Mumbai. ;early half of humanity could be affected. 2o would numerous other species. 6olar bears would be under serious threat due to loss of sea ice, as would other :rctic species" and the one$two punch of temperature rises and acidification would pose serious challenges to many marine species. &ut e0tinction threats in the two$degree world are not limited to the oceans. %he principal investigator of a 7J study, )hris %homas, revealed that (Well over a million species could be threatened with e0tinction as a result of climate change.(
2.3 T!ree Degrees %he three degree world is less familiar than worlds with less e0treme warming" whole nations are at risk of disappearance. It!s a degree of warming which, by consensus, represents the point where damage begins to be e0tremely serious, and at which less and less corresponding benefit from climate change can be derived. In this chapter, climate regimes we might term !sort of safe! are left behind. 6artly that is because a political consensus of some standing has been that damage below this level might be in some sense acceptable, or at least reasonably survivable. &ut in part this fact is a reflection of non$linear nature of climate impacts, for above 7 degree celsius the risk of encountering what have become known as !tipping points! rises$$and rises unpredictably.
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In Six Degrees the primary concern is for !carbon cycle feedbacks.! In 7 a paper called (:cceleration of Global Warming 'ue to )arbon )ycle 1eedbacks in a )oupled )limate Model( was published$$bibliographically known as )o0 et al., >7.? 6rior to )o0 et al, most climate models had simulated the response of atmosphere and ocean to increasing greenhouse gases. &ut )o0 et al was an early product of a new generation of (coupled( climate models. )oupled models added a new level of realism by considering the carbon cycle, in addition to atmosphere and ocean. 1or carbon is an important ingredient for all life, and is ubi#uitous in sea and sky. It is forever dancing from sky, to living tissues, to the sea$$and the specifics depend, in part, upon temperature. 1or e0ample, as temperatures warm, seawater absorbs less carbon dio0ide, and as precipitation patterns change and plants grow >or die?, they take up more >or less? carbon. %hus, carbon affects temperature, which affects life, which in turn affects carbon. What )o0 et al. found was startling, for those who spotted the implications. With C degrees of warming, (Instead of absorbing )*7, vegetation and soils start releasing it in massive #uantities, as soil bacteria work work faster to break down organic matter in a hotter environment, and plant growth goes into reverse.( %he result, in the model, was the release of an additional 7= ppm of carbon dio0ide by 75, and an additional 5.= degrees of warming. In other words, the C ) world was not stable$$hitting the C degree threshold meant hitting a !tipping point! which led directly >though not immediately? to the J ) world. %his effect was primarily due to a huge dieback of the :ma-on rain forest. With warming and drying the rainforest collapsed almost completely. Later studies found globally similar effects, albeit in differing amounts. :nd recent study suggests that the likelihood of an :ma-onian collapse may be lower than first thought$$welcome news, to be sure. &ut it can!t be ruled out$$nor can other carbon feedbacks. Lynas discusses the possibility of massive Indonesian peat fires, for e0ample$$in 5BB9$B/, wildfires
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there released appro0imately (two billion tonnes of additional carbon into the atmosphere.( :nother overarching fact gives one pause4 three degrees of warming takes us beyond the 3emian interglacial as analogue. %he 6liocene epoch, three million years before the present, was the last time global mean temperature was three degrees warmer than pre$Industrial. :nd during the 6liocene, atmospheric carbon dio0ide was in the range of CK$J ppm, according to studies of fossil leaves. %hat!s significant because modern carbon dio0ide levels hit J ppm for the first time in 75C. In other words, our atmosphere already contains as much carbon dio0ide as did the 6liocene version$$and that was a world so different from ours that beech shrubs grew only = kilometers from the 2outh 6ole, in an area where the average temperature is $CB ) today. It is some consolation that such e0tensive changes could not occur overnight, and in fact might take centuries$$if concentrations were to stabili-e at J ppm, that is. %he list of potential climate impacts at C degrees is dispiritingly long. %he recurring theme, though, is difficulties in conducting agriculture4 drought in )entral :merica, 6akistan, the western A2 or :ustralia, more monsoonal precipitation e0tremes in India, and strengthening cyclonic storms add up to a proected net global food deficit at 7.= ). :s Lynas puts it4 With structural famine gripping much of the subtropics, hunres of millions of people will ha!e only one choice left other than eath for themsel!es an their families" They will ha!e to pac# up their belongings an lea!e... Conflicts will ine!itably erupt as these numerous climate refugees spill into alreay ensely populate areas... $proote, stateless, an without hope, these will be the first generation of a new type of people" climate nomas, constantly mo!ing in search of foo, their !arie cultures forgotten, ancestral ties to ancient lans cut fore!er... As social collapse accelerates, new political philosophies may emerge, philosophies that see# to lay blame where it truly belongs%%on the rich countries that lit the fire that has now begun to consume the worl.
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3. %'*SUR'S TO D'*+ /ITH TH' ISSU' O0 (+O*+ /*R%IN( 3.1 U-ited Ntio-s 0reor4 Co-ve-tio- o- Clite C!-ge) %he mid$5B/s was a period of increased concerned with the human impact on global climate. %he Intergovernmental 6anel on )limate )hange >I6))?, established by World Meteorological *rgani-ation and the A; 3nvironment 6rogramme, presented evidence of global climate change with its first report in 5BB. :s global environmental concerns gained public awareness, international action to address the threat of global climate change became a viable response. In 5BB7, the Anited ;ations 1ramework )onvention on )limate )hange, ;ew ork, 5BB7 was adopted. It came into force in 5BBJ. %he convention sets forth the ultimate obective of stabili-ing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at safe levels. %he convention does not establish e0act concentrations of greenhouse gases at safe levels. In one egree, the 1ourth :ssessment
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2cientists talk about tipping pointsN, where a gradual change suddenly moves into a self$fuelling spiral. %he methane trapped in the melting permafrost and in sea$beds in a warming ocean, and, if some or all of that methane is released, it would amount to more contribution to the average cimate change in the world. Greenhouse gases occur naturally and are essential to the survival of humans and millions of other living things, through keeping some of the sun8s warmth from reflecting back into space and making 3arth livable. &ut it8s a matter of scale. : century and a half of industriali-ation, including clear$felling forests and certain farming methods, has driven up #uantities of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. :s populations, economies and standards of living grow, so does the cumulative level of GG emissions. %hanks to the I6)), this is what we know4 •
1rom 5// to 757, average global temperature increased by ./=O). %o put this into perspective, for each 5 degree of temperature increase, grain yields decline by about = per cent. Mai-e, wheat and other maor crops have e0perienced significant yield reductions at the global level of J megatonnes per year between 5B/5 and 77 due to a warmer climate.
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*ceans have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished and sea level has risen. 1rom 5B5 to 75, the global average sea level rose by 5B cm as oceans e0panded due to warming and ice melted. %he :rctic8s sea ice e0tent has shrunk in every successive decade since 5B9B, with 5.9 million kmP of ice loss every decade.
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Given current concentrations and on$going emissions of greenhouse gases, it is likely that by the end of this century, the increase in global temperature will e0ceed 5.=O) compared to 5/= to 5B for all but one scenario. %he world8s oceans will warm and ice melt will continue. :verage sea level rise is predicted as 7J $ Ccm by 7K= and J$KCcm by 75. Most aspects of climate change will persist for many centuries even if emissions are stopped.
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In secon egrees, a highlight of the proected impacts of climate change on the 3urope region based on the 1ourth :ssessment due to storminess and sea$level rise?. %he great maority of organisms and ecosystems will have difficulty adapting to climate change. Mountainous areas will face glacier retreat, reduced snow cover and winter tourism, and e0tensive species losses >in some areas up to K under high emission scenarios by 7/?. %he intensity of the global warming increase, with the outcome assumed in the chapter three degrees will likely to see the @el nino8 effect. 6opulation transfers will be bigger than anything ever seen in the history of mankind. %his will inevitably lead to conflict and international wars.
3.2 5#oto 6rotocol %he Dyoto 6rotocol is an international treaty, which e0tends the 5BB7 Anited ;ations 1ramework )onvention on )limate )hange >A;1)))? that commits 2tate 6arties to reduce greenhouse gases emissions, based on the premise that >a? global warming e0ists and >b? man$made )*7 emissions have caused it. %he Dyoto 6rotocol was adopted in Dyoto, +apan, on 55 'ecember 5BB9 and entered into force on 5K 1ebruary 7=. %here are currently 5B7 6arties > )anada withdrew effective 'ecember 757? to the 6rotocol. 'egradation of coral reef systems can prove particularly threatening to fishing$ dependant coastal communities. :s most fishing communities are steeped in poverty and lack access to basic and essential services, coral bleaching can magnify adverse
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conse#uences. %he key international instruments applicable to coral reef health are the A;1))) and the Dyoto 6rotocol, with mandates on mitigation measures like emissions avoidance and carbon se#uestration. While )*7 is the most prominent greenhouse gas, other gasses contribute to global warming as well. %here are si0 directly controllable greenhouse gasses that are covered by the Dyoto 6rotocol. 3mission targets are given in units of )* 7 e#uivalents, which is the product of the global warming potential of the gas and the weight. %his is the #uantity of )* 7, which would have the same effect on global warming over the duration of 5 years as the individual gas. %hese gasses are commonly included when determining the carbon footprint of an organi-ation as a part of a carbon management strategy. %he seven main gasses are4 )*7, )J, ;7*, 1)s, 61)s, 21 K and newly ;1 C.
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$. CONC+USION With the increasing of average climate change degree by degree, Lynas had proved by the historical references and assumption, since it had happened before, nothing is stopping it from happening again. Working from several decades worth of scientific in#uiry into both our current climate situation and periods of vast geologicFclimactic upheaval, Lynas gives us a best guess global picture of what happens as the temperature rises, degree by degree, from one to si0 >e0tinction of most plants, animals, people?. %his book is an interesting study in the alarmist$literature dynamic between the dual obectives of a piece of alarmist ournalism to be obective and to ruthlessly manipulate the fears of the reader. Six Degrees summarises the likely conse#uences of global warming into a form that an interested layman like me can digest without being overwhelmed. %he evidence that global warming is being driven by carbon dio0ide from fossil fuels is straightforward and incontrovertible.
7. R'0'R'NC'S &ooks – 2i0 degrees4 *ur 1uture on a otter 6lanet 3nvironmental Law Q 'r. 2.<. Myneni 1oreword by 'r. D. Ridyullatha
P a g e | Websites – List of International 3nvironmental :greements – Wikipedia.org 2i0 'egrees by Mark Lynas – Goodreads.com Anfcc.int
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