low-voltage-motors-report-3-vols-2014.pdf

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The World Market for LowVoltage Motors - 2014 Edition July 2014

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IHS Technology

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors - 2014 Edition

Contents Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 5 Chapter One Introduction, scope and methodology ................................................................................................ 11 1.0 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................... 12 1.1 Scope .................................................................................................................................................................... 12 1.1.1 IE4: Super Premium Efficiency motors ........................................................................................................... 13 1.1.2 Differences in terminology relating to IE4 motors ........................................................................................... 14 1.1.3 Point of measurement for market value .......................................................................................................... 15 1.1.4 Efficiency classifications .................................................................................................................................. 16 1.1.5 Report structure by geographic region ............................................................................................................ 16 1.1.6 Application, discrete, process & other manufacturing sectors ........................................................................ 17 1.1.7 Enclosure type ................................................................................................................................................ 21 1.1.8 Power rating .................................................................................................................................................... 22 1.1.9 IEC & NEMA frame sizes ................................................................................................................................ 22 1.1.10 Supply channel ............................................................................................................................................. 23 1.2 Report content ..................................................................................................................................................... 24 1.3 Research methodology....................................................................................................................................... 24 1.3.1 Base year & forecast methodology ................................................................................................................. 24 1.3.2 Data collection methods & sources ................................................................................................................. 25 1.4 Economic specific forecast assumptions ........................................................................................................ 25 1.4.1 The relevance of GDP & industry sector performance ................................................................................... 25 1.4.2 The approach to developing forecasts for key economic series ..................................................................... 26 1.4.3 Average selling price (ASP) assumptions & unit volume analyses ................................................................. 26 1.4.4 Exchange rates ............................................................................................................................................... 26 Chapter Two The world market for low-voltage motors ........................................................................................... 28 2.0 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................ 29 2.1 World economic outlook ................................................................................................................................... 29 2.2 General Trends in the global low-voltage motor market................................................................................ 31 2.2.1 Low-voltage motors market v. the total motors market ................................................................................... 31 2.2.2 Understanding the global low-voltage motor market ...................................................................................... 31 2.2.3 Factors indirectly influencing growth of the low-voltage motor market .......................................................... 37 2.2.4 Indirect influences on the low-voltage motor market ...................................................................................... 39 2.2.5 IE4 Super Premium Efficiency motors officially defined ................................................................................. 42 2.2.6 The IE4 market: perceived barriers & ROI justification .................................................................................. 46 2.3 Direct influences on the global low-voltage motor market ........................................................................... 47

IHS™ Technology Formerly: iSuppli, Screen Digest, Displaybank and IMS Research COPYRIGHT NOTICE AND LEGAL DISCLAIMER © 2014 IHS. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and IHS. Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS permission must display IHS legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. For more information, please contact IHS at [email protected], +1 800 IHS CARE (from North American locations), or +44 (0) 1344 328 300 (from outside North America). All products, company names or other marks appearing in this publication are the trademarks and property of IHS or their respective owners.

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2.3.1 Organic revenue growth v. inorganic revenue growth .................................................................................... 47 2.4 Overview of the world market for low-voltage motors .................................................................................... 52 2.4.1 Low-voltage motor efficiency legislation by region ......................................................................................... 52 2.4.2 The world market for low-voltage motors by efficiency class ......................................................................... 57 2.4.3 The world market for low-voltage motors by region ........................................................................................ 58 2.4.4 The world market for low-voltage motors by application ................................................................................. 59 2.4.5 The world market for low-voltage motors by industry sector .......................................................................... 60 2.4.6 Low-voltage motor market in the European Union in 2015 and 2017 ............................................................ 61 2.4.7 The world market for low-voltage motors by frame size ................................................................................. 62 2.4.8 The world market for low-voltage motors by sales channel ............................................................................ 62 2.4.9 The world market for low-voltage motors by power rating .............................................................................. 63 2.4.10 The world market for low voltage motors by enclosure type ........................................................................ 63 2.5 World market share analysis for 2013 .............................................................................................................. 63 2.6 Low-voltage motor market structure ................................................................................................................ 64 2.6.1 Recent motor market mergers & acquisitions ................................................................................................. 64 Chapter Three The EMEA market for low-voltage motors ....................................................................................... 94 3.0 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................... 95 3.1 The EMEA market for low-voltage motors ......................................................................................................... 95 3.1.1 The EMEA market for low-voltage motors by efficiency class ........................................................................ 97 3.1.2 The EMEA market for low-voltage motors by region ...................................................................................... 98 3.1.3 The EMEA market for low-voltage motors by application ............................................................................. 106 3.1.4 The EMEA market for low-voltage motors by manufacturing sector ............................................................ 106 3.1.5 The EMEA market for low-voltage motors by frame size.............................................................................. 107 3.1.6 The EMEA market for low-voltage motors by sales channel ........................................................................ 107 3.1.7 The EMEA market for low-voltage motors by power rating .......................................................................... 108 3.1.8 The EMEA market for low-voltage motors by enclosure............................................................................... 108 3.2 EMEA market share analysis for 2013 ............................................................................................................ 108 Chapter Four The Americas market for low-voltage motors ................................................................................. 140 4.0 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................... 141 4.1 The Americas market for low-voltage motors .................................................................................................. 141 4.1.1 The Americas market for low-voltage motors by efficiency class ................................................................. 141 4.1.2 The Americas market for low-voltage motors by region ............................................................................... 143 4.1.3 The Americas market for low-voltage motors by application ........................................................................ 149 4.1.4 The Americas market for low-voltage motors by manufacturing sector ........................................................ 149 4.1.5 The Americas market for low-voltage motors by frame size ......................................................................... 150 4.1.6 The Americas market for low-voltage motors by sales channel ................................................................... 150 4.1.7 The Americas market for low-voltage motors by power rating ..................................................................... 150 4.1.8 The Americas market for low-voltage motors by enclosure .......................................................................... 151 4.2 Americas market share analysis for 2013 ...................................................................................................... 151 Chapter Five The Asia-Pacific market for low-voltage motors ............................................................................. 181 5.0 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................... 182 5.1 The Asia-Pacific market for low-voltage motors ........................................................................................... 182 5.1.1 The Asia-Pacific market for low-voltage motors by efficiency class ............................................................. 183 5.1.2 The Asia-Pacific market for low-voltage motors by region............................................................................ 184

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5.1.3 The Asia-Pacific market for low-voltage motors by application .................................................................... 189 5.1.4 The Asia-Pacific market for low-voltage motors by manufacturing sector .................................................... 189 5.1.5 The Asia-Pacific market for low-voltage motors by frame size ..................................................................... 190 5.1.6 The Asia-Pacific market for low-voltage motors by sales channel ............................................................... 190 5.1.7 The Asia-Pacific market for low-voltage motors by power rating .................................................................. 190 5.1.8 The Asia-Pacific market for low-voltage motors by enclosure ...................................................................... 190 5.2 Asia-Pacific market share analysis for 2013 .................................................................................................. 191

Appendix 1: List of tables and figures ..................................................................................................................... 221 Appendix 2: Company directory ............................................................................................................................... 226 Appendix 3: Discrete, process and other industry codes ..................................................................................... 228 Appendix 4: IHS GDP and machinery production forecasts ................................................................................. 230

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The World Market for Low Voltage Motors - 2014 Edition Mark Meza, Principal Analyst

Executive Summary The world market for low voltage (LV) integral horsepower (IHP) motors was estimated to be worth $15,595 million in 2013, with 49.8 million units shipped during the year. The world market slowed to a moderate 5.7% revenue growth in 2012 after two consecutive years of double-digit growth of 14.3% and 10.9%, respectively, during 2010 and 2011. Improved global revenue growth of 6.6% in 2013 can be attributed to: 

Shale gas renaissance in North America due to ‘fracking’ technologies. Fracking technology has allowed previously unreachable oil deposits trapped in porous shale rock to be harvested from existing wells



Strong feedstock supply, which stimulates growth in chemicals, petrochemicals and petroleum byproduct production



Improved, but still recovering domestic LV motor market demand in China and the Eurozone



With the exception of mining, much improved Process Sector (end-user) market performance



Inorganic revenue enhancement resulting from the intensifying transition to IE2 LV motors in the Eurozone and South Korea, and to IE3 motors in North America.

Although growth was much improved in 2013 compared to 2012, it is thought that certain market constraints limited revenue growth during the year. These were: 

The global mining sector began to slow in late 2012 due to lack of new investment funding. This caused stoppage in 2013 of ongoing mining projects, and caused start dates for new projects to be pushed out to 2014 or 2015.



A weak metals sector in China resulting from a glut of Chinese-produced steel.



There was relatively no movement in 2013 concerning China’s transition to IE2 LV motors that officially started in September 2012. The slow start of the transition is thought to be a result of the Chinese market contraction in 2012, and less than 5% revenue growth in 2013.



An abundance of IE1 motors still being sold into official IE2 and IE3 markets of Western Europe, the US, South Korea, and Brazil.

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Barring further significant economic setbacks of which were seen in 2012 and 2013, IHS expects revenue growth to remain steady if not strong due to the ongoing transition to higher efficiency, more expensive LV motors peaking in the Eurozone and China during the forecast period. IHS has forecast revenue growth that is expected to result in the global market growing by almost $10 billion through 2018, generating a CAGR of 9.9% for revenues and 5.1% for units. By 2018, IHS expects the global LV motor market to increase to $25,441 million, with unit over 63.8 million unit shipments. It is important to note that a period of significant inorganic revenue growth is expected to start in 2017, when the EU begins to transition the bulk of its motor market, that is power ratings of 0.75kW – 7.5kW, to IE3. However, IE2 motors with a VFD will be allowed at this time and will have a negating impact on IE3 motor revenues to some degree.

Ongoing transitions to IE2 and IE3 motors Economic difficulties in China and the Eurozone have slowed the market’s demand for LV motors in the past few years. These difficulties have been further compounded by loopholes that exist in the regulations that have significantly diminished the intended impact of the regulations. The ongoing transitions to the next higher efficiency level of LV motor occurring in all three regions all can be similarly characterized as steady, but occurring at a slow pace. This is evidenced by reported data indicating that low-cost IE1 LV motors are still being sold in significant quantities in regions where they were required to be phased out of the market nearly one, and in some cases, two decades prior. This has resulted in spreading inorganic revenue growth over an estimated 5-6 year period. Three to six years into some efficiency shifts, it was revealed by reported data that more than half of the LV motors sold into a respective market were of the outgoing efficiency class. Based on this trend analysis, IHS concludes that a regional transition to the next higher efficiency class of LV motor will occur over a 4-6 year period for large markets such as the US, China and Western Europe.

Standard Efficiency - IE1 / Below EPAct / Y2-3 IE1 LV motors have been on the decline since 1997 when the US began its shift to IE2/EPAct LV motors. The decline in this motor segment is occurring in all three regions, and intensified greatly when Brazil began its transition to IE2 LV motors in 2009, and again, when the European Union began its transition to IE2 in mid-2011. It was expected that China’s transition to IE2/GB3 starting in late 2012 would further expedite the global decline in this motor segment in 2013. However, a year of contraction in the Chinese market in 2012, followed by low growth in 2013, are thought to have significantly hampered a strong beginning for the shift to IE2 in the country. IHS believes that relatively few IE2 motors were sold in 2013 in China despite it being the first full year of the move to IE2. In addition, IE1 motor revenues were found to be significant even in established IE2 and IE3/NEMA Premium markets in 2013 due to regulatory loopholes that exist in current IEC and NEMA regulations. Amendments to existing IEC and NEMA regulations are expected in 2015, and are intended to fortify the existing regulatory framework with the direct intention of closing loopholes that are allowing IE1 LV motors to be legally sold in IE2 and IE3 marketplaces well beyond their initial phase-out dates. In 2012, a revenue contraction of 7.9% occurred in the IE1 LV motor market, which was followed by another revenue contraction of 7.8% in 2013 as the Eurozone, and North America continued to phase-out these motor types. Contraction is expected again in 2014 with a forecast 5.9% reduction in revenues globally in this motor segment. Growth, albeit poor, is expected in this motor segment in 2015 and 2016. In 2013, IE1 LV motors continued to hold the majority share in the global market and were estimated to account for $6,928 million, or over 44% of global LV motor revenues and nearly 63% of unit shipments. IHS expects a tipping point to be reached in 2017 when IE2 revenues will overtake IE1 revenues at the global level. At this time, it is predicted that the Chinese IE1 market will have peaked as the country will be several years progressed into the shift to IE2. However, revenue growth in the IE1 LV motor market is expected at low levels during the forecast period with market demand coming from countries that have no established energy efficiency regulations such as Russia, India, The Middle East, Central and Eastern Europe, and Africa. This motor segment is expected to generate a CAGR for revenues of negative 1.6% though 2018. However, the IE1 LV motor market is expected to still account for over 26% of the global market revenues during that year.

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High Efficiency - IE2 / EPAct / GB3 IE2 LV motors were estimated to account for $3,594 million, or over 23% of LV motor market’s revenues and 20% in terms of units. This motor segment grew robustly by 17.4% in revenues in 2013 after a poor year in 2012 of 0.3% growth. Robust growth is predicted in the coming years as a result of peaking transitions to IE2 in both China and the Eurozone, and also continued growth in the established IE2 market of Brazil. Japan, a market heavily concentrated in IE1 LV motors in 2013, is not expected to add to IE2 growth during the forecasts period as the country intends to skip IE2 and shift towards IE3 starting in 2015. IHS believes the 2015 and 2017 transition to IE3 in the European Union (EU) will only modestly limit IE2 growth due to the expectation that the vast majority of that region’s market will prefer the IE2 + variable speed drive option allowed by EU regulations, over IE3 LV motors. At the global level, the IE2 market is forecast to generate a CAGR of 17.6% for revenues. By the end of 2018, the IE2 market is expected to be the second largest motor market segment in terms of revenues, and is estimated to be worth over $8,000 million and account for 32% of global revenues.

Premium Efficiency - IE3 / NEMA Premium / GB2 The US and Canada are the only established IE3/NEMA Premium LV motor markets in 2013. However, many IE2 and IE1 motors are still being sold into these countries despite the regulations, and this has dampened revenue growth to some extent. New LV motor regulations are expected in 2015 in the US and are intended to further eliminate unintended exemptions that are allowing a significant number of phased-out motor types to still be sold in 2012 and 2013 in these countries. Japan is forecast to provide a significant revenue boost to the global IE3 market when it foregoes IE2 regulatory framework, in favor of one that begins the shift of its industry to IE3 LV motors. The IE3 LV motor segment was estimated to account for 22% of global LV motor revenues, and have a market value of $3,411 million in 2013. Robust year-on-year growth is expected in this market during the forecast period, generating a CAGR of 55.5% for revenues. No new regulatory framework was announced to shift to IE3 beyond the 2017 start date in the EU at the time this report was published.

Super Premium Efficiency - IE4 / Super Premium / GB1 The IE4 LV motor segment is expected to almost triple by the end of the forecast period. The rare earth mineral (REM) exports caps set in place in 2011 by China has resulted in established and new IE4 motor technologies coming to prominence in the past few years, some of which are not dependent on REM-based magnets. However, it is estimated that in upwards of 98% of the global IE4 LV motor market consists of neodymium-based machines in 2013. End-equipment suppliers (fan and pump makers) have entered the IE4 motor market by producing lower cost synchronous reluctance IE4 motors attached to their respective endequipment. IHS believes this will provide stiff price competition in the lower power ranges of continuous duty cycle applications, to stand-alone IE4 producers that continue to manufacture expensive neodymium-based LV motors. Currently, most stand-alone IE4 motors are limited to power ratings of 7.5kW (10HP) or less. However, these motors are increasingly being produced in the 30-37kW (40-50HP) with neodymium or samarium cobalt magnets. This motor segment was estimated to be worth $223 million in 2013 and is poised for robust growth, with a CAGR of 26% for revenues expected during the forecast period. In terms of units, the IE4 market is expected to be heavily concentrated in the US, Germany, France and Japan despite the fact that China has a distinct advantage in mining, domestic production and processing of REMs into sintered neodymium magnets, as well as government sponsored rebates for using these motors. At the time this report was published, no major Chinese manufacturers had an IE4 LV motor product line.

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DC motors The integral horsepower (IHP) DC LV motor market continues year-on-year double digit contractions as this motor type is rapidly being displaced by AC induction motors on a global scale. However, the IHP DC LV market is not forecast to vanish completely, as it will serve as a niche legacy replacement market to the dwindling installed base. Many mill motor segments (steel rolling “hot mills”, and pulp and paper mills) around the world have proactively transitioned much of their DC installed base to AC induction motors. The US is estimated to have the largest IHP DC LV motor installed base on the world in 2013, although it too, is on the rapid decline. A CAGR of negative 18.8% for revenues is forecast for the DC motor market through 2018.

EMEA In 2013, the region accounted for $5,008 million, or 32% of global LV motor revenues. A significant portion of this regional market is IE1 as the Middle East, Africa, Russia, and Central & Eastern Europe have no energy efficiency regulations. However, IE1 motors are still being sold in the European Union two full years after the mid-2011 transition to IE2 began. Low revenue growth of 5.9% in 2012 caused by the Eurozone debt crises lingered into 2013 and is thought to be the cause of similarly poor growth in 2013 of 5.1%. Less than favorable economic conditions in the Eurozone for two consecutive years is believed to have slowed the shift to IE2 to some extent, and has had a negative effect on inorganic revenue growth catalyzed by the region’s energy efficiency regulations. Strong mining and oil and gas sectors in Russia, Africa and the Middle East helped bolster the region’s LV motor market during the year. However, a global mining slowdown in 2013 and competition to the oil-producing nations of these two regions from the shale gas boom in the Americas is expected to mitigate growth. Double-digit growth is expected to return to the region in 2015 when the Eurozone’s economic troubles will have stabilized, and the transition to IE2 is expected to peak in intensity. At this time, the Eurozone will be at the forefront of another transition to IE3 for LV motors above 7.5kW (10HP). The shift to IE3 for the majority of LV motors shipped into the EU begins in 2017, when LV motors below 7.5kW (10HP) will have to meet the IE3 standard. However, it remains to be seen if the market will prefer the IE2 LV motor paired with a variable frequency drive (VFD) over the IE3 option. Due to current Eurozone economic difficulties, which further slowed the transition to IE2 motors, the region is expected to perform below the global market average of 9.9%, generating a CAGR of 9.1% during the forecast period.

Americas In 2013, the Americas region accounted for $5,047 million, or 32% of global LV motor revenues. Like in other regions, a significant portion of this region’s revenues continue to be IE1, even in established IE2 and IE3 markets. Steady revenue gro wth of 9.2% in 2013 followed from the previous year’s robust growth of 14.1%. A shale gas renaissance resulting from “fracking” technologies, signs of a return of the US manufacturing base, a still improving US economy, and a stabilized Brazilian economy are thought to the be the primary sustaining forces of growth during the year. The region is expected to sustain double-digit growth rates for the remainder of the forecast period as it has a relatively high number of small, yet emerging economies in South America that are heavily steeped in oil and gas and mining operations (albeit low-cost IE1 motor markets). In addition, shifts to IE2 and IE3 LV motors in Brazil and North America, respectively, is estimated to be well beyond the halfway point. However, this still makes the region’s LV motor marketplace the most expensive in the world. With plenty of potential to turn over the remaining DC installed base in the US, and significant market potential remaining for IE3 motors to displace current IE1 and IE2 sales, the region is expected to outperform the global market average, generating a CAGR for revenues of 12.6% through 2018.

Asia Pacific The Asia Pacific region’s LV motor market was least affected by the global recession and grew at healthy rates during the initial onset of the Eurozone’s economic troubles. However, a severe contraction in in 2012 in the Chinese market resulted in very poor growth performance at the regional level of 0.8%. In 2013, China rebounded to positive modest growth of 4.6%, while Australia’s LV motor market contracted by 8.1% as a result of the mining global slowdown. These factors contributed to limiting the region’s growth to 5.7% during the year.

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Like in the EMEA region, the market contraction year in China followed by low growth is believed to have delayed the onset of China’s shift to IE2/GB3 LV motors which officially began in September 2012. In 2015, the region is expected to post good growth as the shift to IE2/GB3 in China is expected to show signs of intensifying. Significant revenue enhancement of the region’s LV motor market is expected from Japan’s shift to IE3 LV motors beginning 2015, and also to the fact that the region contains emerging economies in Vietnam and Thailand at are rapidly industrializing, expanding infrastructure, and becoming global players in production of industrial and commercial products. Despite the majority of the region still being characterized by low-cost IE1 motors, the Asia Pacific region is the largest regional LV motor market and is estimated to be worth $5,540 million, accounting for over 35% of global revenues. The region is forecast to perform significantly under the global market average through 2018, generating a CAGR of 8.4% for revenues.

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Executive Summary

Overview: World Market for Low Voltage Motors

CAGR Market Performance during 2009 - 2018

Above Below Significantly below

Regional Efficiency Breakdowns in 2013 7,000 6,000

WORLD

IE1

5,000

Millions $

4,000 3,000

IE2

IE3

2,000

Other

1,000

DC

IE4

0 2,500

Millions $

2,000

EMEA IE1

1,500 1,000

Other IE3

IE4

DC

0

5,047.4

5,579.2

10.5%

12.6%

Asia Pacific Efficiency Class IE1 - Standard Eff

5,540.2

5,890.1

6.3%

8.4%

6,928.3

6,518.1

-5.9%

-1.6%

IE2 - High Eff

3,594.4

4,461.4

24.1%

17.6%

IE3 - Premium Eff

55.5%

3,410.5

4,132.2

21.2%

IE4 - Super Premium Eff

223.2

262.2

17.4%

25.9%

DC Motors

170.5

136.7

-19.8%

-18.8%

1,268.5

1,386.3

9.3%

13.1%

12,238.2

13,303.4

8.7%

9.8%

1,440.0

1,514.1

5.1%

12.2%

TENV: non-hazardous

74.5

76.9

3.1%

7.2%

TENV: hazardous

16.2

17.1

5.7%

8.7%

TEFC: hazardous

1,129.8

1,243.0

10.0%

10.5%

696.6

742.3

6.6%

7.2%

4,567.8

4,900.8

7.3%

10.1%

3,803.3

4,186.9

10.1%

10.3%

5.62-7.5kW (7.5-10HP)

3,338.0

3,662.9

9.7%

10.9%

7.5-45kW (10-60HP)

1,930.9

2,089.5

8.2%

9.0%

45-112.5kW (60-150HP)

769.4

833.2

8.3%

8.3%

150-375kW (200-500HP) 376kW & above (>500HP) Sales Channel Direct to End-user

881.1 304.9

915.0 308.5

3.8% 1.2%

7.4%

2,500

Other Power Rating 0.75-1.5kW (1-2HP)

2,000

2.25-3.75kW (3-5HP)

1,500 1,000

AMERICA

3,000

500

IE3

IE1

IE2

Other

IE4

DC

0 5,000 4,000

ASIA IE1

Direct to OEM

3,000

Direct to Sys Integrator Dist. to End-user

2,000 1,000

IE2 IE3

IE4

DC

0

DC IE4 1.1% 1.4%

Other

Dist. to OEM Dist. to Sys Integrator Total Market

Other 8.1%

IE3 21.9%

DC IE4 2.4% 0.3%

7.2%

1,949.0

2,083.8

6.9%

8.6%

11,233.0

12,185.6

8.5%

10.3%

408.7

436.0

6.7%

9.9%

1,194.7

1,301.1

8.9%

8.7%

667.1 142.8 15,595.3

729.5 160.8 16,896.8

9.3% 12.6% 8.3%

9.4% 9.1% 9.9%

Other 8.3% IE1 25.9%

IE1 44.4%

IE3 31.5%

IE2 23.0%

2013 Market Size ($M) $15,595.3

IE2 31.7%

2018 Market Size ($M) $25,441.0 Jul-14

Source: IHS July 2014

Δ% CAGR 09-18 8.4% 9.1%

Americas

ODP

3,500

Millions $

2013 (M$) 2014 (M$) 5,007.8 5,427.5

Other, non-regulated Enclosure Type TEFC: non-hazardous

IE2

500

Millions $

Region EMEA

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Chapter One

Introduction, scope and methodology  Report content  Methodology  Motor types included and not included

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1.0 Introduction This report represents IHS’s fifth dedicated analysis of the world market for low voltage (LV) integral horsepower (IHP) motors sold into industrial applications. The global market for LV motors includes motors of 1HP/0.75kW and above, with a voltage rating of less than or equal to 690V. This includes AC induction motors that are segmented into four distinct efficiency classes, direct current (DC) motors, and specialized motors that lie outside of efficiency class regulations. IHS also publishes annual reports covering related product markets, such as medium voltage motors and variable speed drives. Given the association between these products, the analyst researching this report chose to share similar scope and market segmentations, thus enabling the various pieces of research to be used in tandem. IHS’s objective in producing this report is to provide manufacturers interested in the world market for LV motors with detailed information on the current and future performance of this market. The primary objective of this research is to provide an accurate assessment of this market’s performance in the base year 2013, four years following an estimated 21.6% contraction in revenues for the industrial LV motor industry in 2009. The secondary objective of this research is to provide a clear assessment of how the market is expected to perform through 2018 in light of the recent slowdown in the Chinese motor market, and economic woes of the European economy due to the sovereign debt crisis. Less focus is given to the technical aspects of the products. A number of key objectives were defined prior to commencing research for this report. These were: 

To compile market growth estimates for the global LV motor market in 2013 in terms of both dollar revenues and unit shipments



To analyze revenues and unit growth in the major geographic regions where LV motors are sold



To analyze the performance of major industry sectors for LV motors and to forecast their respective growth profiles



To segment the LV motor market by a number of technical specifications, such as energy efficiency class, application, machine and end-user sectors, enclosure type and power rating, to determine the proportion of the market within each segment, and to estimate each segment’s associated growth trends



To use credible economic indicators to project a five year growth scenario with clear justification



To accurately assess the market shares of the major manufacturers of LV motors



To identify and analyze the impact of key market trends on the various product markets

1.1 Scope The scope of this study is to focus on statistics collected for LV motors sold into industrial applications. Manufacturers were instructed to report data for all LV motors sold to the total available market (TAM), and exclude revenues generated by distributor mark-up, intra-company or other ‘captive’ sales, software, services or replacement parts. These data points reflect both direct sales and those to distributors and system integrators. In instances of third-party product branding, revenues were measured at the point of the third-party sale to the TAM, and not the sale by the original manufacturer of the product to the third party. Every effort was made by IHS to not double count revenues as a result of this type of arrangement. For this report, LV motors are defined as having voltages of less than or equal to 690V, and include synchronous permanent magnet motors based on the traditional AC induction design, DC motors and traditional AC induction motors. The term “induction motor” includes motors that “induce” rotating motion using the properties of magnetic induction.

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Squirrel-cage permanent magnet motors are identical in form factor to industrial AC induction motors, but the iron/copper or aluminum rotor has been combined or replaced with a permanent magnet one, leading to synchronous operation and greater efficiency. These LV motors have zero slip under normal operating conditions, unlike AC induction motors that must slip in order to produce torque. There are various alternative names in the industry for similar types of motors. Due to the continuing emergence the IE4 efficiency class motors, the fifth edition of this report has brought an expansion of scope for the IE4 efficiency class to include the traditional permanent magnet motor based on the squirrel-cage design, in addition to old and new motor technologies that achieve this level of efficiency. This market has resided in relative insignificance in years past, having accounted for <1% of the global market. IHS feels this market will grow robustly and account for 2% or more of the global LV motor market by the end of the decade. Please note that only LV motors sold as a stand-alone product are included in the analyses of this report. The following LV motors are not included in the statistical analyses of the report: 

Traction motors (used for commercial and cargo trains, mining vehicles)



Servo motors



Stepper motors



Hermetic motors (cooled by liquid refrigerant sprayed directly on the motor windings)



Geared motors (motors sold with a pre-installed gearbox)



Generators



Variable speed drives (sometimes called frequency inverters)



Integrated motors (motors with a pre-installed variable speed drive mounted directly on the motor itself)



Fractional horsepower motors (motors with power ratings below 0.75kW/1HP)



Rewound motors



Motors used in non-industrial applications (appliances, residential HVAC, consumer power tools)



Motors included in maintenance, installation, repair and after-sales support

1.1.1 IE4: Super Premium Efficiency motors Low voltage motor technologies that achieve an IE4 level of efficiency are not new to the industry and have been a topic of discussion in the factory automation environment for the past decade. However, as was discussed above, new and established IE4 technologies have been emerging in the global LV motor marketplace as a result of rare earth mineral (REM) supply chain shortages and capped exports. IHS believes the IE4 LV motor segment is growing robustly in a motor market where improved energy efficiency is of great importance and most often, mandated by a region’s respective government. For this reason, IHS believes that these types of motors will continue to have a significant influence on the traditional AC induction motor market. Low voltage motors rated at Super Premium Efficiency levels are likely to compete with the Premium Efficiency (IE3) and NEMA Premium markets.

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While waiting upon an official standards body such as the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) to officially define, recognize, and introduce the IE4: Super Premium Efficiency class, IHS has elected to use this classification to describe all low voltage motor technologies that: 

Achieve a higher efficiency level than that of a NEMA Premium motor



Achieve a higher efficiency level than that of an IE3 Premium Efficiency motor



Are line-start (fixed speed) or inverter duty (variable speed)

Penetration of IE4 motors into the market has been increasing rapidly. However, at the beginning of 2013, this market segment remained at an estimated 1.4% of the global low voltage motors market in terms of revenues. IHS will include the following motor technologies in the IE4: Super Premium Efficiency low voltage motor segment: 

NdFeB-based (neodymium) permanent magnet motors based on traditional squirrel-cage design.



Samarium cobalt-based (SmCO5) permanent magnet motors



Switched reluctance motors which use no magnets, such as those produced by Nidec Corporation



Synchronous reluctance and Synchronous Reluctance (SynRM) motors which use no magnets, such as those produced by ABB



Electrically commutated permanent magnet (ECPM) motors that use ferrite magnets, such as those produced by NovaTorque



Low voltage motors with copper rotors



Amorphous metal + ferrite metal (AM+FM) axial flux motor technologies, such as those designed by Hitachi Metals, Ltd.



Motors with other new ferrite technologies that achieve the equivalent efficiency of the IE4 efficiency level

1.1.2 Differences in terminology relating to IE4 motors There exists a wide variety of terms used to refer to non-servo LV motors that use a variety of permanent magnets, the most common being neodymium and SmCO5. The labeling of a “permanent magnet motor” includes many different terms that are used ubiquitously in the industry. Some of the terms used to describe a LV motor using permanent magnets are: 

Line-start permanent magnet motors (LSPM)



Permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSM)



Industrial permanent magnet motors



Interior permanent magnet motors



Squirrel-cage permanent magnet motors

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The majority of permanent magnet motors in the marketplace today are based upon the traditional AC induction (squirrel-cage) design with a totally enclosed fan-cooled (TEFC) enclosure. IHS realizes that some variation does exist, as some permanent magnet motors based upon the AC induction design have an open drip proof (ODP) enclosure. Further on, some are designed with an enclosure that would fall into IHS’s “Other enclosure” segment. The IE4 efficiency class segment of the global LV motor market has evolved significantly enough over the past several years to include many different motor types beyond the neodymium-based squirrel-cage design. Some motors that fall into this category do not use any magnets at all, while some use traditional ferrite magnets in a proprietary design to achieve this level of efficiency. At the time the 2014 edition of this report was begun, Brazilian motor manufacturer WEG announced that its IE5 low voltage motors would be introduced at the 2014 Hannover trade fair in Nürnberg, Germany. Also, Finland-based ABB will introduced its version of an IE5 motor which is based on its existing Synchronous Reluctance (SynRM™) design with added ferrite magnets on the rotor.

1.1.3 Point of measurement for market value The point of measurement of the market excludes additional revenue generated by distributor sales mark-up. In instances of third party product branding, revenue is measured at the point of the third party sale and not the sale by the original manufacturer of the product to the third party. IHS has made every effort to avoid double counting revenues as a result of this point of measurement methodology. Since LV motors are often sold as part of a system or a machine used in larger factory automation projects, the sale can typically involve multiple countries throughout the negotiation and integration phases. For the purposes of this report, reporting companies were instructed to allocate revenues and units to the region into which the products were initially sold.

1.1.4 Efficiency classifications In 2009, an international energy efficiency classification system for LV, three-phase asynchronous motors was suggested in order to harmonize the European and North American standards. The previous designations, derived from the European Committee of Manufacturers of Electrical Machines (CEMEP) enacted in 1998, have evolved into a new internationally recognized efficiency standards system based upon IEC 60034-2-1:2007 using the acronym ‘IE’ for IE1, IE2, and IE3 LV, three-phase asynchronous motors. This essentially replaces the ‘EFF’ designations derived from the old EN60034-2:1996 standard in which temporary licensure was extended from 10th February 2010 to 15th June 2011 to motor manufacturers already registered with CEMEP. The European EFF designations are no longer officially used on motor badge plates or industry promotional literature. The ‘EPAct’ designations from the National Electrical Machinery Manufacturers Association (NEMA) based upon The Energy Policy Act of 1992, including the ‘NEMA Premium’ rating created in 2001, will remain valid efficiency designations in the North American market. Due to the similarity of efficiency rating ranges, as uniquely defined in each of the respective regional classification systems mentioned above, the European system (IEC) and the current NEMA system have been consolidated and grouped in the following designations of LV motors analyzed in this report: 

IE1 – Standard Efficiency, below EPAct motors; previously referred to as EFF2 or EFF3



IE2 – High Efficiency, EPAct motors; previously referred to as EFF1



IE3 – Premium Efficiency, NEMA Premium motors; previously referred to as EFF1



IE4 – Super Premium Efficiency, includes a variety of motor technologies, some with magnets and some without, but all achieving greater than IE3/NEMA Premium efficiency ratings (Please refer to Section 1.1.1 and 1.1.2)



DC Motors, that run on direct current electricity

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


Other, non-regulated, including motors with power ratings above 375kW (504 HP) that fall outside of NEMA and/or IEC regulations, and other specialized motors such as submersible, fire pump, and 10-, 12-, or more pole IEC and NEMA frame AC asynchronous motors across all power ratings.

Please be aware that the market segment ‘DC motors’ is has been incorporated into this report in order to provide full coverage of the LV motors market. DC motors were not part of the scope of the previous editions of this report, “The World Market for Low Voltage AC Motors – 2010”. Therefore, a significant increase in the size of the global low voltage motors market in terms of revenues and units may be apparent when compared to the previous edition.

1.1.5 Report structure by geographic region The remainder of this report is structured as follows:

Chapter 2 – The world market for low-voltage motors Chapter 2 contains aggregate totals of all segmentations of all three regions covered in this report

Chapter 3 – The EMEA market for low-voltage motors 

Austria & Switzerland



Benelux (Belgium, The Netherlands, Luxembourg)



Spain & Portugal



France



Germany



Italy



UK & Ireland



The Nordic Countries



Turkey



Poland



Russian Federation & CIS



Central & Eastern Europe



Africa



Middle East

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Chapter 4 - The Americas market for low-voltage motors 

US



Brazil



Canada



Mexico



Argentina



Chile



Columbia



Peru



Venezuela



Rest of Latin America

Chapter 5 - The Asia-Pacific market for low-voltage motors 

China



India



Japan



Australia (inc. New Zealand)



South Korea



Taiwan



Thailand



Rest of Asia Pacific

1.1.6 Application, discrete, process & other manufacturing sectors Due to motor manufacturers’ limited visibility into their respective sales by Application, Discrete (Machine Builder), Process (End-user) and Other manufacturing, IHS has elected to analyze these industry sectors on a regional basis only for the total revenues and unit shipments of the entire LV motors market.

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Application sector The application sectors covered in this report represent an overview of general, non-specific functions present in an automated factory environment to which LV motors are applied. Examples of applications that apply to several, if not all industrial sectors would be fans and conveyors. Fans and conveyors are present to varying degrees in all major Discrete, Process and Other manufacturing sectors. Application sectors covered in this report include: 

Compressors



Conveyors



Cranes & Hoists



Crushers



Elevators & Lifts



Extruders



Fans



Roller Tables



Printing Machines



Pumps



Propulsion



Winches



Winders



Other

Discrete industry sectors Discrete manufacturing sectors are predominately original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), sometimes referred to as machine builders. The term ‘discrete manufacturing’ is used to refer to the production of a finished product that is made from ‘discrete’ components. All types of machinery are considered to be discrete manufacturing, although once assembled they can be used in process manufacturing. For example, a packaging machine is considered a discrete manufacturing device, even if it is sold and used in a process industry. Certain industry sectors are also considered part of discrete manufacturing, e.g. Commercial HVAC (Heating, Ventilation and Air-conditioning) or Semiconductor.

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Please note the following changes to the Discrete Sector reporting for the 2014 edition of this report: 

The Automotive market segment previously contained in the Process Sector in the 2013 edition of this report has been placed in the Discrete Sector for the current 2014 edition.



The Paper & Paperboard market segment previously contained in the Process Sector in the 2013 edition of this report has been combined with the Paper & Paperboard Segment in the Discrete Sector for the current 2014 edition.



The Refrigeration market segment has been added to the Discrete Sector for the current 2014 edition. For the purposes of historical reporting in this segment, revenue and unit data will be extrapolated from the Other Discrete Sector.

Discrete industry sectors covered in the 2014 edition of this report include: 

Automotive



Commercial HVAC



Conveyors



Cranes & Hoists



Elevators & Escalators



Food, Beverage & Tobacco



Machine Tools



Mining



Packaging & Labelling



Paper & Paperboard



Printing



Refrigeration



Robotics



Rubber & Plastics



Semiconductors



Textiles



Woodworking



Other Discrete Sectors

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Process industry sectors The term ‘process manufacturing’ refers to the production of a finished product that is made from different ingredients which are ‘processed’ in some fashion. Any product that is baked, mixed, refined, chemically altered, grown or similar is created as part of a process manufacturing environment. The most obvious examples of process industries are Chemical, Metal Processing and Food, Beverage & Tobacco. Other examples include Power Generation (electricity production and water and wastewater processing) and Mining. Please note the following changes to the Process Sector reporting for the 2014 edition of this report: 

The Automotive market segment previously contained in the Process Sector in the 2013 edition of this report has been placed in the Discrete Sector for the current 2014 edition.



The Paper & Paperboard market segment previously contained in the Process Sector in the 2013 edition of this report has been combined with the Paper & Paperboard Segment in the Discrete Sector for the current 2014 edition.



The Chemicals & Petroleum market segment has been renamed Chemicals. This market segment still captures low voltage motors sold into the chemicals industry, and the petroleum byproducts industry.



The Oil & Gas market segment has been added to the Process Sector for the current 2014 edition. For historical data purposes, low voltage motors sold into the Oil & Gas market segment will be extrapolated from the Other Process Sector.



For low voltage motors sold into the power generation market segment, two new market segments have been added to the Process Sector for the 2014 edition of this report: Power generation – Nuclear & Fossil and Power Generation – Renewable Energy. For historical data purposes, low voltage motors sold into these two market segments will be extrapolated from the Other Process Sector as well as a portion from the former Utilities market segment.



The Utilities market segment has been renamed Water & Wastewater, and exclusively captures low voltage motors sold only into regional water & wastewater utilities. For historical data purposes, low voltage motors sold into power generating utilities (i.e. nuclear or fossil fuel power plants) will now be included in the two Power Generation segments added to the Process Sector for the current 2014 edition.



The Refrigeration market segment has been added to the Discrete Sector for the current 2014 edition. For the purposes of historical reporting in this segment, revenue and unit data will be extrapolated from the Other Discrete Sector.

Process sectors covered in this report include: 

Chemicals



Food, Beverage & Tobacco



Metal Processing



Mining



Pharmaceuticals



Power Generation – Nuclear and Fossil



Power Generation – Renewable Energy

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

Paper & Paperboard



Rubber & Plastics



Waste & Wastewater



Other Process Sectors


Other industry sectors The market segment ‘Other Industry Sectors’ has been added to the 2014 edition of this report, and includes Building Automation, Infrastructure, and Other. Revenue and unit quantities were not added to original topline market values as listed in previous editions of this report. Rather, quantities were reallocated from the Other Discrete Sector, and Other Process Sector markets to constitute these new added sub-segments to limit disruption to established topline revenue and unit data. It was assumed that significant revenue and unit quantities reported into these two sub-segments in previous editions of this report included these 2014 edition industry sector sub-segments

1.1.7 Enclosure type IHS has added a hazardous area contra-segment to each enclosure type analysed in this report. However, the majority of hazardous area low voltage motors reside in the TEFC and TENV enclosure segments. The following motor enclosure types were analyzed in this report:

Enclosed fan-cooled (TEFC) The totally enclosed fan cooled motor has an external fan mounted opposite its drive end. The fan is covered with an additional enclosure to avoid injury. Often, metal ‘ribs’ are present vertically or horizontally (much like a common carburetor) on the enclosure to increase air flow over the motor’s body, and thus maximize cooling. The explosion proof motor, formerly referred to as the XP segment is actually subcategory of TEFC. An XP class motor uses a thicker grade of metal to protect the motor from a hazardous environment, or to minimize the potential for an unchecked ignition source to cause the motor to explode. Most XP enclosures are made of cast iron. The European equivalents of the North American-centric XP motor are also included in the TEFC/hazardous area segment. These equivalents include: Exd (flameproof), Exe (increased safety), Exia and EXib (intrinsically safe), Exo (oil immersion), Exp (pressurized apparatus), Exq (powder filling), Exm (encapsulation) and Exn (non-sparking).

Enclosed non-ventilated (TENV) In cases where the surrounding air contains corrosive or otherwise harmful elements, a totally enclosed non-ventilated enclosure may be needed. TENV enclosures restrict the free flow of air, but are not completely airtight. At the point where the motor shaft exits the housing, a seal is installed to keep out liquids, dust, and other foreign matter. Since there are no ventilating openings, all heat generated by the motor must be dissipated through the enclosure by conduction.

Open drip proof (ODP) Open drip proof motors are designed with vents to allow air flow out from the internal motor, but are positioned to prevent liquids and solids from entering the enclosure. ODP motors are mainly used in environments free of contaminants. ODP motors do not have the characteristic metal ‘ribs’ on the enclosure usually found on TEFC and XP motors.

Other IHS has defined these enclosure types as ones designed for application-specific purposes. Examples include, but are not limited to motors that require modified foot stands or cooling fins, or other alterations on the enclosure itself.

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1.1.8 Power rating The power rating segmentations found in this report are as follows. Please note to better align the power rating market segments to the frame size analyses, power rating ranges were realigned in the current 2014 edition as follows: 

0.75-1.5kW (1-2HP)



2.25-4.13kW (3-5.5HP)



5.62-7.5kW (7.5-10HP)



11.25-37.5kW (15-50HP)



45-112.5kW (60-150HP)



150-375kW (200-500HP)



376kW and above (>504HP)

Conversions from kilowatt (kW) to horsepower (HP) were assigned to practical HP ratings. For example, 375kW is the equivalent to 502 HP. However, 502HP LV motors do not exist. Therefore, in the interest of practicality, IHS has elected to round the conversion to the nearest practical HP rating in this case 375kW ≈ 500HP.

1.1.9 IEC & NEMA frame sizes In addition to the segmentations listed above, regional analyses by IEC and NEMA frame sizes are presented in this report.

By IEC frame sizes Please note to better align the frame size analysis to the power rating analyses, IEC frame size ranges were created (instead of individual frame segment analyses) in the current 2014 edition as follows: 

80 – 100



112 – 132



160 – 225



250 – 355



400 – 560



630 & above

Please note that the Russian GOST standard includes metric frame sizes 63 – 315 that are comparable with the European IEC frame sizes. For the purposes of this report, the Russian GOST standards, assumed to be available only in the Russian Federation and CIS, have been estimated for revenues and units and included in the IEC frame size segmentation analyses.

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By NEMA frame sizes Please note to better align the frame size analysis to the power rating analyses, NEMA frame size ranges were created (instead of individual frame segment analyses) in the current 2014 edition as follows: 

56 – 145



182 – 184



213 – 215



254 – 326



364 – 449



5000 & above

Please note that NEMA regulations technically stop at 440 frame sizes

1.1.10 Supply channel Sales of LV motors were segmented by direct and distribution for each sales channel as follows:

End-user A company, or individual, that uses automation equipment at the place of work. End-users’ automation equipment is often bought as part of a machine supplied by an original equipment manufacturer.

OEM A company which purchases automation equipment for use in the construction of machinery and end-equipment, which is then sold to a manufacturer or an end-user. Machine builders are often referred to as original equipment manufacturers (OEMs).

Systems integrator This category includes businesses that specialize in building or designing automation systems for other companies. Typically the term “systems integrator” is also used for panel builders, sub-contractors (such as electrical engineers) and system houses.

Distributor This category includes businesses that purchase automation equipment for re-sale under the brand name of the original manufacturer. Distributors should not be confused with suppliers that purchase motors for resale under a different brand name. Note additional revenues generated through distributor mark-up are not included in the reported revenues.

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1.2 Report content The report takes the following format: Chapter 2 provides details of the world market for LV motors broken down by efficiency class, geographic region, application, sales channel and various technical segmentations, such as power rating and frame size. Each analysis presents the total market in terms of both revenues and unit shipments. Economic, product-specific and general market trends that affect market performance are also reviewed. Chapters 3, 4, and 5 provide a detailed analysis of the EMEA, the Americas and the Asia Pacific regional markets for LV motors. The chapters highlight the industry, machine, and end-user sectors that are expected to outperform and underperform the overall market. Chapter 6 provides information on the competitive landscape of the LV motors market, including market share estimates of the leading manufacturers in 2013.

1.3 Research methodology 1.3.1 Base year & forecast methodology Base year data analysis For the purpose of statistical analysis, 2013 was used as the base year. Since the report was written in the first half of 2014, it was possible to collect suppliers’ data for all of their respective 2013 revenues and unit shipments, as well as projections for 2014. Hence, the level of accuracy for the 2013 estimates presented in this report is expected to be high. Key manufacturers throughout the world provided revenue and unit shipments data to IHS; this data was analyzed to calculate the approximate size of the market in the base year of 2013. Because more than 70% of the total market data was based on reported sales figures, a “bottoms up” analysis was used. Once the base year data estimates for 2013 were established, growth rates were applied to generate market forecasts from 2014 to 2018.

Forecast methodology The forecasts presented in this report have been derived by carefully considering the extent to which two distinct growth dynamics will directly impact the LV motor markets. The first of these dynamics includes factors such as underlying regional economic growth (GDP), machinery production growth (MP), and the degree by which these industries are recovering from the global economic downturn of 2009, and how they are expected to perform in the future. The second, and most pertinent dynamic is the impact of various regional motor efficiency legislations becoming law around the world during the forecast period considered for this report. In addition, another factor, namely the extent to which the average selling prices are projected to change over time, is also considered as part of this model, although this particular market phenomenon is thought of as indirectly affecting market growth. The forecasts for this report were developed while pursuing the following goals: 

To integrate relevant, credible, and current third party data into the model for assessing and projecting underlying growth for the market



To provide a practical level of transparency to the forecast through clear documentation of adopted assumptions

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

To develop a realistic projection for the short-term (1 to 2 years) forecast. “Realistic” projection means that IHS attempts to project actual market performance over the next two years, taking into account market cycles anticipated during this time frame



To develop a reasonable projection for the mid to long-term (3 to 5 years) forecast.

1.3.2 Data collection methods & sources During the research timespan for this report, a variety of information sources were used to determine the initial scope of the project and to ascertain present and future market trends that are analyzed in the study. These sources included: 

Interviews with global & local LV motor manufacturers



Excel-based data capture spread sheets completed by global & local LV manufacturers



Company annual reports and registered accounts



Business and financial press



Manufacturer brochures, data books, and other technical literature



Other IHS reports



Publications by professional industry and market associations



IHS Global Insights macro-economic business intelligence



International organizations, such as the United Nations and its affiliate organizations, the International Monetary Fund, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development.

1.4 Economic specific forecast assumptions 1.4.1 The relevance of GDP & industry sector performance Since growth of the LV motor markets is closely tied to the economic health and increasing levels of factory automation in each particular region, general economic forecasts are used as the foundation for growth projections. The two main economic series IHS uses most heavily in developing these forecasts are gross domestic product (GDP) and the projected performance of the key industry sectors evaluated as part of this study. GDP is considered to be the total value of consumer and government purchases, private investments, and the net exports of goods and services for a nation. This economic indicator gives a good picture of the financial status of a country not only on a national level, but on an international level as well, because it accounts for the imports and exports of foreign and domestic goods. The future performance of key industry sectors, as predicted by various industry associations and other sources that closely follow the developments of their respective markets, is then considered in conjunction with the GDP forecasts to create a credible forecast for the products presented in this report. IHS believes that a combination of these data series provides a solid framework for predicting market development in automation end-equipment markets. The GDP series is used to illustrate the overall health of the economy, while the industry sector forecasts are used to refine the total forecast to accommodate fluctuations in the performance of various industries in the face of the economic downturn and during the recovery phase. In cases where industry sector forecast data is not available, reasonable projections for the future performance of this data series can be made by evaluating their historical interactions with the GDP series, i.e. whether or not growth tends to be more or less dynamic than GDP. July 2014

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1.4.2 The approach to developing forecasts for key economic series The following approach is adopted for developing the growth series forecasts used in the forecast period 2013 through 2017: 

Short-term GDP forecasts are collected from third party sources. Given the complexity of predicting economic growth, IHS relies on forecasts produced by credible third parties for short-term GDP growth rates. A mixture of data from the following sources was used: the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the International Monetary Fund, the United Nations and related organizations.



Mid- to long term GDP forecasts are derived by IHS. The above listed organizations do not provide mid-term and longterm forecasts for some countries. Consequently, IHS is required to produce these projections. Long-range forecasts of this type are impossible to judge with any level of certainty, so IHS has chosen to estimate GDP for this period by approximating growth to match current expectations. The effect of this approach is to introduce a set of long-range growth forecasts that predict a rebound in economic growth after several years of stagnation and decline.

1.4.3 Average selling price (ASP) assumptions & unit volume analyses In addition to revenue analyses at each product level, unit analyses have also been provided to further illustrate the status of the LV motor market, and to highlight its expected future development. Average selling prices (ASPs) were generated for the base year 2013 at every segmentation level of this report, based on data and interviews provided by LV motor manufacturers. Factors that contribute to changes in average selling price, including price erosion, changes in the product mix and fluctuation of commodity prices, were assessed to calculate a profile of changing ASPs for each product type for the time period 2014 to 2018. In an effort to simplify the forecasting process for subsequent market segmentation, such as by geographic region, the forecast model assumed that the profile of change in total market ASP was constant across the various market segmentations. In other words, the extent to which the ASP will change for the efficiency class and sales channel segmentations is identical to the change for the geographic region and industry sector segmentations.

1.4.4 Exchange rates Table 1.0 Data for this report was collected in US dollars and Euros. Because of the volatility in the currency markets, particularly with the dollar to Euro exchange rate, companies were asked to include any currency conversion rates used in the compilation of their revenues. These currency conversion rates were then normalized using OANDA historical rates for the time period of 1 st January 2013 to 31st December 2013. Fixed currency rates based on 2013 values were used for the remainder of the forecast period 2014 to 2018. The normalized exchange rates used throughout the production of this report are listed in Tables 1.0.

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1.0 Exchange Rates

Exchange Rates Used Base = 1 USD Country Australian Dollar Brazilian Real Canadian Dollar Chinese Yuan Renminbi Euro Hong Kong Dollar Indian Rupee Japanese Yen Norwegian Kroner South Korean Won Swedish Kronor Swiss Franc Taiwan Dollar UK Pound US Dollar

Symbol AUD BRL CAD CNY EUR HKD INR JPY NOK KRW SKR CHF TWD GBP USD

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

1.3285 2.1800 1.1346 7.9819 0.7970 7.7689 45.3188 116.3366 6.4156 969.9015 7.3786 1.2536 32.5565 0.5435 1.0000

1.1954 1.9453 1.0744 7.6172 0.7308 7.8026 41.3463 117.8145 5.8581 935.2698 6.7599 1.2004 32.8826 0.4999 1.0000

1.1970 1.8402 1.0667 6.9623 0.6834 7.7874 43.6470 103.4662 5.6470 1102.8352 6.5935 1.0831 31.5559 0.5449 1.0000

1.2812 2.0085 1.1417 6.8409 0.7192 7.7522 48.4363 93.6167 6.2978 1279.0774 7.6520 1.0857 33.0665 0.6412 1.0000

1.0906 1.7675 1.0308 6.7788 0.7549 7.7695 45.7127 87.8289 6.0487 1159.8729 7.2095 1.0433 31.5515 0.6475 1.0000

0.9691 1.6753 0.9893 6.4735 0.7190 7.7851 47.2351 79.7414 5.6103 1109.3535 6.4952 0.8871 29.5126 0.6237 1.0000

0.9662 1.9563 1.0000 6.3198 0.7783 7.7575 53.7608 79.8155 5.8234 1130.1728 6.7765 0.9380 29.6622 0.6312 1.0000

2011-12 % Change -0.31% 16.78% 1.08% -2.37% 8.25% -0.35% 13.82% 0.09% 3.80% 1.88% 4.33% 5.75% 0.51% 1.19% 0.00%

Note 1: Currency rates are the yearly average; a negative % change implies a strengthening against the USD. Future currency rates are assumed to be fixed to 2012 values Note 2: http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates-classic?srccont=rightnav

Source: OANDA

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Chapter Two

The world market for low-voltage motors  Low growth in Eurozone continues in 2013  Growth in Americas market slows  Global mining slowdown in 2013  China market recovery delays start of IE2 shift  New regulations on the horizon for 2014 and 2015  IE4 low-voltage motors officially defined by the IEC

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2.0 Introduction This chapter presents and analyzes consolidated market statistics for the world market for industrial low voltage integral horsepower motors with power ratings at or above 0.75kW/1HP. The statistics presented in this chapter are aggregated from the three regional volumes of this study and provide market sizes in terms of both revenues in millions of US dollars (represented as $M), and unit shipments in thousands (represented as ‘k’ units). The base year for the analyses in this report is 2013. Section 2.1 provides an overview of the general trends influencing the world market for low voltage (LV) motors, including discussions of the drivers of market growth, the economic outlook for the global market for LV motors, detailed explanations of the regulatory framework in each of three regions, updates and amendments to the regulations, as well as various product and pricing trends. Section 2.2 provides both qualitative and quantitative analyses of the market, presenting market sizes in 2013 and forecasts from 2014 through 2018. Historical market sizes are provided for 2009 through 2012 for reference.

2.1 World economic outlook The commentary below reflects the GDP data and June 2014 update produced by IHS Economics & Country Risk as part of its country intelligence service. In summary, the global outlook for economic activity continues to change slowly for the better, although considerable risks remain. The aggregated real GDP of the world grew 2.5% in 2012 and 2.4% in 2013; it is currently forecast to increase by 2.8% in 2014 and 3.3% in 2015, though problems still lurk to push it off track with still real risks that the underlying causes of the last recession may return to cause another. The economic outlook differs markedly by region. The initial recovery from recession was stronger in emerging and developing economies but weaker in the advanced economies. More recently, the GDP growth rates of advanced economies have diverged, with the US economy growing much faster than that of the Eurozone. For the near future, increasing global growth in economic activity will be driven by the more developed regions, notably the United States. Although GDP growth rates will be higher in developing economies, notably China, the projected growth rates there will be lower than in recent years. Europe is very slowly dragging itself out of recession. The GDP of the Eurozone fell by 0.6% in 2012 and is estimated to have fallen a further 0.4% in 2013; it is currently forecast to increase slowly by only 1.1% in 2014 and 1.6% in 2015. However, unemployment is not falling from a historically high level and real wages continue to fall; along with tight fiscal policies, tight credit conditions in several countries, excess industrial capacity and still relatively weak export demand, there are few signs of a strong upturn in the near future. Germany’s expansion is strengthening; the United Kingdom is enjoying relatively rapid GDP growth, at least in the short term; economic growth in France, Italy and Spain remain weak. There is, however, gradual improvement. The sovereign debt crisis has abated, though at a heavy social cost in Southern Europe; financial markets are improving; consumer confidence has risen; and inflation continues to decline. On balance, survey evidence suggests that Eurozone activity is moving to stabilization, although it has some way to go. It is now considered more likely than not that Greece will remain in Eurozone.

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GDP in EMEA is currently projected to increase by 1.9% in 2014 and 2.4% in 2015. This improvement is based on expected improvements in financial markets, in stronger fiscal conditions, and in the benefits resulting from structural reforms. However, Greece is currently predicted still to be in recession in 2014, and there remain substantial risks to regional economic activity. For instance, inflation remains substantially lower than the European Central Bank’s 2.0% target; there is concern that the region still sits dangerously close to deflation, which would make the reduction of debt in Southern Europe harder. The relatively strong current growth of economic activity in the United Kingdom carries risks of being unsustainable; driven as it is in part by a property boom in the Southeast and increased consumer spending in part funded by reducing savings. How easily the United Kingdom with its current high levels of debt, could weather even a gradual increase in the Bank Rate and avoid falling back into recession is uncertain. The current crisis in the Ukraine adds a new element of risk to the EMEA forecast, with a serious deterioration in the investment climate in Russia; IHS has reduced the forecast real GDP growth in Russia further to 0.5% in 2014; but currently forecasts it to recover to 1.7% in 2015 and 2.5% in 2015. The outlook in the United States remains stronger than in Europe, as its economy has performed much better over the last couple of years and is forecast to do so to 2017. GDP growth rate for the United States is now estimated as 2.6% for 2012 (following revision of historical data) but only 2.0% in 2013. However it is currently forecast to grow more strongly in 2014 and 2015, by 2.2% and 3.1% respectively. The short-term forecast has been reduced following a hard winter and a weak first quarter. On the whole, recent news on the US economy has been mildly positive: Moderate job growth, along with rising asset values, is helping to drive increased spending; retail sales and capital goods orders are rising, but housing is challenged by declining affordability, tight credit and rising construction costs. Export markets are improving, and the effects of unconventional gas and oil boom are feeding into the general economy. The pace of capital spending is increasing, but the rate of growth is forecast to be slower than in previous cyclical recovery periods. Replacement of the federal spending sequester (which depressed economic activity somewhat in 2013) by a new political agreement in the US Congress is expected to help both confidence and economic activity. There continues to be a taper down in securities purchases by the Federal Reserve, with current expectations of their ending around the end of 2014. However, central interest rates are considered likely to remain historically low for some while yet, as inflation is projected to remain low in the short term and unemployment is still relatively high. IHS anticipates that the federal funds rate will begin to rise in September 2015 to reach a long-term equilibrium of 4.0% in mid-2017. In Brazil, real GDP is estimated to have grown only 1.0% in 2012, but 2.3% in 2013. It is currently forecast to grow only 1.5% in 2014; but recover to 2.5% in 2015, supported by a recovery in capital goods investment and from exports rebounding. Investment might be vulnerable to tapering in the United States of government bond purchases, as borrowing costs will rise as a consequence. In 2011, Japan endured its third recession since 2008, as GDP shrank throughout the final three quarters. Japan’s economy has been struggling, in part, with disappointing exports as the world economy continued to falter. Exports to China and Europe were particularly bad, with growth in China cooling off and much of Europe still in recession. Growth in GDP in Japan in 2012 and 2013 is now estimated to be 1.4% and 1.5% respectively. Real GDP is currently predicted to grow by 1.4% in 2014 and by 1.3% in 2015; a weaker yen will help exports, though increases in sales tax will restrain consumer spending. There remain concerns over the sustainability of the pickup over the medium term. Forecast real GDP growth in China is forecast for the next few years to be around 7.5% each year. Although high by global standards, this is considerably lower than in the years from 2007 to 2011. China’s leadership has singled out financial stability, rather than short-term growth, as the most important objective, with only moderate stimulus applied. China’s economy is not yet on solid ground with very high local government debt and vulnerabilities in banking and real estate. China’s debt to GDP ratio has doubled over the last seven years; there remains a risk of a collapse of shadow banks. On the other hand, a fall of real GDP growth substantially below 7% would have serious repercussions on employment in an increasingly urban population. The focus of Chinese policy is shifting to a degree from industrial production to consumer infrastructure and domestic demand, consistent with maintaining financial stability. For the rest of the world, this will support the exports of some industries and countries, though there is predicted to be some cooling in demand for raw materials, say from Australia. Exports from China are expected to remain vulnerable to swings in demand for some time to come. Demand from a still-struggling Europe is shaky, and to a much lesser extent the same can be said for demand from the United States.

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Recently, there has been quickening growth in industrial production, exports of merchandise, and real retail sales. Overall, China’s real GDP grew 7.7% in 2012 and is estimated to have grown 7.7% again in 2013. Growth is currently predicted to be stable at 7.3% in 2014 and 7.1% in 2015, slightly lower the recently forecast. The economic outlook for the world is currently for continued, albeit only gradual, improvement, with upside risks to the shortterm forecast outweighing downside ones, although no region is without important vulnerabilities over the medium term. Many of the larger developed economies still have the conflicting aims of trying to grow their way out of the recession whilst at the same time trying to reduce their enormous debts. Improvement in the economy of the United States is balanced by continuing problems in Europe. With strong interconnections between the economies of the different regions, forecast growth in both advanced and developing economies remains vulnerable in the medium term. With the reduction in the stimulus measure of government bond purchases in the United States, currencies and investment in some developing economies, such as Turkey, Argentina, India, and Indonesia have come under pressure; so the short and medium term growth of these economies now looks weaker. In the United States and Japan, there are considerable risks associated with the continuing need to develop and execute policies of fiscal consolidation to reduce debt over the medium term, without choking off recovery and growth in the short term. Also, globally, the risks in the financial sector that triggered the last recession have largely still to be addressed; the impact of a return to higher central government interest rates may leave many consumers with dangerously high levels of debt, increasing risk again to banks. Last, a continuing increase in economic inequality in the populations of developed economies is causing many to doubt if strong recovery to historical growth rates is achievable even over the medium and long term.

2.2 General trends in the global low-voltage motor market Low voltage (LV) motors have become the most common piece of electrical equipment in the factory automation environment, and are often referred to as the essential “workhorse” needed to drive mechanical processes. This section provides a discussion of the key factors influencing the world market for LV motors, including an analysis of key economic and non-economic trends. This information is provided in order to present the reader with the most significant issues currently influencing this market, and to highlight the issues and regulatory developments that will impact the market’s performance throughout the forecast period.

2.2.1 Low-voltage motors market v. the total motors market The industrial motors market comprises a wide variety of LV motor types, including traditional AC induction asynchronous motors with designated efficiency classes IE1, IE2, IE3, and synchronous IE4 permanent magnet motors, DC motors, medium voltage (MV) motors, servo and stepper motors, fractional horsepower (FHP) motors, and others. The LV motor market is the only motor market that is governed by energy efficiency legislation in each of three regions. However, a precedent will be set in 2015 energy efficiency regulations are implemented for the FHP motor market in the US. Fractional horsepower (FHP) motors are considered to include power ratings below 0.75kW/1HP. Please refer to the IHS report The World Market for Fractional Horsepower Motors – 2014 Edition, which publishes in November of 2014. IHS estimates that the global market for integral horsepower (IHP) LV motors was worth $15,595.3 million in 2013, with 49,799 million units shipped, representing a 6.6% growth in revenues and a 3.6% growth in units compared to 2012. From a revenue growth perspective, the LV motors market is expected to outperform the total industrial motors market during the forecast period. Barring another global recession, expected high revenue growth is primarily attributed to the impact of regional motor efficiency legislations, which are expected to significantly impact the market’s product mix through 2018. The ongoing transitions in each region are focused upon requiring higher efficiency LV motors of higher cost be sold from a certain date onward, as mandated by official government regulations.

2.2.2 Understanding the global low-voltage motor market New LV motor revenues depend upon two factors: continual replacement of the installed LV motor base (brownfield), and from construction of new manufacturing facilities (greenfield). This section discusses the key issues affecting the market for LV motors identified from interviews with major global and regional LV motor manufacturers, OEMs, machine builders and endusers. July 2014

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The ongoing effect of regional government motor efficiency legislation Table 2.0 see below When analyzing and forecasting how the global LV motors market will evolve over time, it is of paramount importance to understand and consider the heavy influence of regional government legislation that mandates newly purchased and installed IHP LV motors have a certain efficiency rating. In the late 1990s when the first energy efficiency regulations were implemented in the US, marked a significant change from when individual manufacturers incentivized motor efficiency improvements through marketing and advertisement as a way to gain a competitive advantage in the market place. However, with the onset of government mandated energy efficiency regulations, now in each of the three regions covered in this report, the playing field of LV motor efficiency has been somewhat leveled. The end result of the energy efficiency regulations is as follows: All manufactures may continue to use proprietary designs for their LV motors, but all LV motors produced, regardless of manufacturer, must meet the same efficiency ratings as outlined in the regulations. In 2010, the US Department of Energy (US DOE) extended the IHP LV motor efficiency standards established by the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) to fractional horsepower motors (FHP). Fractional horsepower motors are <0.75kW/1HP. Single and three-phase general purpose FHP AC motors with frame sizes of 42, 48 and 56 between ¼ and 0.75kW/1HP were included in the legislation and are expected to be built to this standard by March 9, 2015. Regional shifts to higher efficiency LV motors are currently taking place in all three major geographic regions. However, the transition to IE3 rated LV motors in the European Union (EU) in 2017 marks the last mandated transition of significance. The resulting effects of government legislation and the influence it will have on the efficiency classes of the LV motors market in each region will be discussed in more detail in the later sections of this report. A timeline of major transitions to higher efficiency motors is presented below:

Low-voltage motor market in the post-global recession era The LV motor market recovered to pre-recession levels with 2010 and 2011 both posting double-digit growth in revenues and strong unit growth similar to historic rates. In 2012, the LV market had new economic difficulties that limited growth. However, problems that hindered growth in some regions in in 2012, improved slightly in 2013. In addition, some economic issues in 2012 lingered into 2013. However, 2013 brought its share of new constraints. From 2009 to 2013, the LV motor market can be characterized by seven regional efficiency transitions occurring simultaneously: 

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

US: from IE2/EPAct to IE3/NEMA Premium beginning in late 2010

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South Korea: from IE1 to IE2 in mid-2010

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European Union: IE1 to IE2, beginning in mid-2011

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Canada: IE2/EPAct to IE3/NEMA Premium beginning in early 2012

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Turkey: IE1 to IE2, beginning in mid-2012

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China: IE1 to IE2, beginning in late 2012

Table 2.0

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors Efficiency Class Equivalents

European Union North America China Russian Federation & CIS

IE1

IE2

IE3

IE4

Standard Efficiency

High Efficiency

Premium Efficiency

Super Premium Efficiency*

Standard Efficiency Below EPAct Y2, Y3 EFF3**

High Efficiency EPAct GB3

Premium Efficiency NEMA Premium GB2

Super Premium Efficiency Super Premium GB1

Additional Information *IEC 60034-30-1:2014 titled Rotating electrical machines – Part 30-1: Efficiency classes of line operated AC motors **GOST standard equivalent efficiency

Source: IHS

Jun-13

In essence, these regional efficiency transitions will require buyers of LV motors to purchase higher efficiency LV motors, which are more expensive. This has a dramatic effect on revenue growth, but not necessarily unit growth. It important to mention that economic difficulties lessen market demand for LV motors during a transition to a higher efficiency class significantly slows the transition. A slower transition results in the delayed impact of realizing greater revenues derived from higher efficiency, higher cost LV motors. Manufacturers have reported that before efficiency regulations came into effect, average selling price (ASP) at the global level in the LV motor market typically increased 2-3% per year due primarily to the rising cost of raw materials such as copper, steel, and iron. It is important to understand that the efficiency transitions mandated by regional governments do not drive demand for LV motors. Rather, they have had the effect of producing enhanced revenues, or inorganic revenue growth that compliments the revenue growth caused by the organic market demand in the LV motor marketplace. Based on IHS data, the effect of minimal energy efficiency transitions on ASPs at the global level are forecast to increase 3.0% or more each year through 2018 (with the exception being 2012), generating a CAGR for ASPs of 4.5%. It is important to note that IHS expects year-on-year increases in upwards of 4.0% through 2016, and 5.0%-6.0% in 2017 and 2018, respectively. This increasing ASP growth at the global level towards the end of the forecast period is in large part, a direct result of peaking transitions to higher cost motors in the EU, Japan and China. As mentioned, these ASP growth expectations preclude any major economic setbacks in each of these regions for the remainder of the forecast period. After a strong 2-year run in 2010 and 2011, the global market posted moderate revenue growth in 2012, only slightly improving to 6.6% in 2013. Unit growth also improved to 3.6% from 3.3% growth.

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Modest global revenue growth of 5.7% in 2012 was a result of several major issues: 

A major slowdown in the Chinese domestic market caused the Chinese market for LV motors contracted by 7% in revenues.



The Eurozone sovereign debt crisis began to escalate in late 2011/early 2012.

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Stabilizing US LV motor market after two consecutive years of strong growth.

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The stunted growth of inorganic revenue enhancement resulting from a delayed start to the transition to IE2 LV motors in the EU.

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Tier 2 and Tier 3 LV motor manufacturers stockpiled IE1 motors in anticipation a shortage of supply after the mid-2011 start date in



The Process Sectors (end-user markets) usually take the hardest hit during times of economic difficulties. End-users are the most likely early adopters of high efficiency LV motors, as data indicates a significantly higher ASP for end-users compared to machine builders. Thusly, inorganic revenue growth is further constrained when end-user sales of LV motors are low.

In anticipation of the mid-2011 start date for transitioning to IE2 LV motors in the EU, many European manufacturers were overwhelmed with orders in late 2010 through mid-2011 for IE1 LV motors. The intention was to capitalize on acquiring the lower cost IE1s at the last minute, rather than incurring the higher costs of ordering IE2s, which were soon to be required to be sold by law. Not wanting to loose valuable customers that loyally endured during the global recession, manufacturers provided IE1 LV motors up to and beyond the start date, and continued to do so well into 2012. Providing the IE1s beyond their initial phase out date in the EU resulted in an unintended consequence for manufacturers, despite sustaining their respective revenues and customer loyalty. The high order intake (OI) so close to the official start date caused delays in the manufacturers’ ability to re -tool their production lines from producing IE1 LV motors to producing IE2 LV motors. Subsequently, they had difficulty fulfilling orders for IE2s that started to increase in late 2011 and early 2012. It must also be noted that this manufacturers’ ability to produce IE2s was further complicated by the high cost outlays, thought to be several millions of dollars, to re-tool production lines to produce IE2 LV motors. These high re-tooling costs came at a bad time, and were highly unfavorable to budgetary bottom lines during a severe economic recession in the Eurozone. A similar cascade of unintended dynamics is thought to be slowing China’s transition to IE2 LV motors that officially started in late 2012. Last minute orders of the outgoing efficiency class of LV motor, in this case IE1s, and expensive production line retooling during a period of contraction and low domestic sales is expected to delay the peak of the transition to IE2 in China. IHS believes the peak of the transition, and the inorganic revenue boost resulting from mostly IE2 LV motors being sold into China will now occur towards the end of the forecast period instead of the middle. Improved global revenue growth of 6.6% in 2013 can be attributed to: 

Shale gas renaissance in North America due to ‘fracking’ technologies. Fracking technology has allowed previously unreachable large oil deposits to be harvested from existing wells.

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Strong feedstock supply, which stimulates growth in chemicals, petrochemicals and petroleum byproduct production.

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Improved, but still recovering domestic LV motor market demand in China and the Eurozone.

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Improved Process Sector (end-user) market performance (with the exception of mining).

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


Inorganic revenue enhancement resulting from the intensifying transition to IE2 LV motors in the Eurozone and South Korea, and the intensifying transition to IE3 motors in North America.

Although growth was much improved in 2013 compared to 2012, it is thought that certain market constraints limited revenue growth during the year. These were: 

The global mining sector began to slow in late 2012 due to lack of new investment funding. This caused stoppage in ongoing mining projects, and start dates for new projects pushed to 2014 or 2015.



A weak metals sector in China resulting from a glut of Chinese-produced steel.



As was mentioned in the previous section, there was relatively no movement in 2013 of China’s transition to IE2 LV motors that officially started in September 2012. The slow start of the transition to IE2 in the country is thought to be due to the Chinese market contraction in 2012, and less than 5% revenue growth in 2013.



An abundance of IE1 motors still being sold into official IE2 and IE3 markets of Western Europe, the US, South Korea, and Brazil.

Industry sector performance Because of the economic circumstances in China and the Eurozone in 2012, rare contractions occurred during the year in certain LV motor industry sectors, both at a regional level and at a global level. However, historically stable application sectors including fans, pumps and compressors continued to experience steady growth rates. Some contractions in the application sector lingered into 2013. Each region’s application and industry sector performance may vary, depending on the prevailing economic conditions in the region. Concerning the transition to a higher efficiency motor in any individual industry sector, it is interesting to note that the penetration rate of high efficiency LV motors is quickest in applications and sectors where the motor will be run at S1, or continuous duty cycles. Factories and field operations that rely heavily on pumps, fans, and compressors and operate for 8-10 hours per day or more is where the fastest return on investment (ROI) in the form of reduced electricity costs can be achieved. IHS believes that high efficiency motors will be adopted at a higher rate in these sectors. This is especially true for IE4 Super Premium Efficiency motors sold into continuous duty cycle applications in end-user markets.

Repair v. replace decisions According to the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE), an estimated five motors are repaired for every one motor sold, and 25-30% of these repaired motors are then rewound during the lifespan of the motor. Of course, the need for rewinding an installed-base motor or justification of replacement of an old motor is heavily dependent upon the degree of degradation of performance of the motor, based on its usage duty cycle and the environment in which it is being used. Maintenance budgets of facilities managers typically include repair costs, but additional budget is needed to purchase new motors, which must be approved separately as these costs are not part of traditional maintenance budgets. When considering the repair costs and the energy costs during the lifespan of a motor, an extra investment in high quality repair, in the form of rewinding, is often justified. Motor rewinding represents opportunities to adapt or rehabilitate a motor to near its original operating efficiencies, including power supply and load conditions. However, it is widely accepted that a rewind alone will not restore the motor to its original optimal efficiency level. Often, a rewind, together with aftermarket modification of certain components inside the motor, will restore the motor to or above its original operating efficiency. Most facilities owners base their repair decisions on the cost-benefit analysis of just the rewind alone and, in most cases, stop short of paying the extra cost of modifying an installed-base motor to perform above its original specifications.

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It is estimated that a typical motor’s rewind cost is 40-60% of the price of the motor. The decision to rewind a motor must involve consideration of local labor costs, which can vary widely from region to region, and even from country to country. For example, in a country where a high duty on replacement motors exists and labor cost is low, rewinding a motor is a more compelling option than purchasing a new, higher efficiency motor. Conversely, in a country where there is low to non-existent duty costs and labor cost is high, rewinding becomes a less favorable option. Due to the labor cost versus replacement motor cost dynamic, the economic viability of rewinding a motor’s stator has steadily declined over the last two decades, with this decline being especially prevalent in countries that are mandated by legislation to move to higher efficiency motors. When analyzing the repair v. replace threshold for LV motors, an interesting point to also consider in this discussion is the influx of low cost motors from countries that have been given duty free status (lowered or non-existent import tariffs implemented by the receiving country) due the exporting country being designated as an emerging economy. This allows a significant competitive advantage for imported motors in that can be sold at 40% or more below the cost of a domestically produced motor. This creates a situation where the cost to repair or rewind an imported motor becomes less favorable as the repair costs could be significantly higher than the original cost of the imported motor. A prime example of this is imported Chinese motors that are not re-branded (re-badged) as a major manufacturers’ brand. Despite a lower cost motor being purchased, which is favorable to a project or facility owner’s budget, a sacrifice of quality, functional integrity, and functional lifespan of that motor may result in the repair threshold (based on power rating) being increased. In other words, if low cost motors become more and more disposable, which in turn makes it cheaper to replace with a new low cost motor, the result is cost-benefit based justification to increase the repair threshold to a higher power rating. IHS has incorporated a mechanism into the forecast model to account for regional variability in the rewinding of LV motors of a lesser efficiency rating. However, the more motors that are rewound results in less new motors being sold. This does have a negative effect on organic demand for LV motors and negatively effects revenue growth to some degree. Based upon interviews with major repair and rewind professionals, such as those that belong to the Electrical Apparatus Service Association (EASA) in North America, IHS estimates that approximately 5% more IE1 and IE2 motors will be rewound in Brazil and North America respectively, resulting in a longer lag time between replacement of an installed base motor with higher efficiency IE2 or IE3 (NEMA Premium) machines. This dynamic, in addition to the reduced tariffs on imports of motors from emerging economies described above, has caused a significant change in repair thresholds to become more evident. Essentially, where it made sense to repair everything above 15HP before the new efficiency standards were implemented, post-implementation of standards legislation results in a new, higher threshold for repair believed to be around 56-75kW (75-100HP). A similar methodology has been applied in the EMEA region, primarily Western Europe, where labor costs for repair are typically high for domestically produced motors. Because of these factors mentioned above, IHS expects repairing or rewinding an installed-base motor to become an increasingly less compelling option for factory owners in North America and Western Europe. To bolster this assumption, interviews and research have revealed that individual motor manufacturers offer attractive incentives to their customers in order to make repairs of an installed-base motor less favorable, and buying a brand new one more favorable. In the Asia Pacific, where labor costs are typically low, the rewind cost-benefit justification is expected to be a more compelling option for project and facility owners. IHS estimates that a higher percentage of motors will be rewound in this region during the forecast period. In regions such as Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa, and parts of Asia Pacific (excluding China and South Korea), there is an absence of motor efficiency legislation that would force a transition to a higher efficiency class of motors. In addition, these regions are synonymous with low labor costs, and are expected to continue rewinding motors at current rates. Overall, IHS believes that the impact of motor efficiency legislation on repair vs. replace considerations will remain relatively minor and is more dependent on a case-specific situation where repair or replace may be undeniably cost effective. Therefore, IHS believes that the LV motors market is expected to continue developing in favor of purchasing new, higher efficiency motors rather than repairing older, less efficient ones.

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2.2.3 Factors indirectly influencing growth of the low-voltage motor market Several general, overlying trends have a great influence on not only the LV motor market, but all industrial automation markets to some degree. These general trends are summarized below.

Ongoing transition to automated factory environments Factory automation continues to penetrate all industries as it replaces or complements non-automated production systems. Increased automation content in machines has reduced labor and material costs for manufacturers, improved operator safety, and made equipment more reliable and less expensive to maintain. The implementation of automation equipment results in increased performance and improved equipment efficiency. Emerging economies with burgeoning industrial capacities are where automation is penetrating at the highest rates.

Ongoing displacement of DC motors by AC induction motors Even in existing automated factory environments based on LV direct current (DC) motor systems, replacement of the LV DC installed base continues as sectors transition to asynchronous AC induction motor systems. DC motors still hold some advantages over AC induction motors, like positioning (much like a servo motor) and some degree of speed control without the use of a variable frequency drive. Steel rolling “hot mills”, pulp and paper mills, oil and gas operations, and mining operations still use a fair amount of DC-based motor systems and rely on replacement DC machinery. However, most steel rolling mills in China and Japan have converted their installed base in their respective mill motor sectors to AC induction motor topography.

Increasing penetration of low-voltage variable frequency drives Variable frequency drives (VFDs) have been gaining widespread acceptance over the past decades due to the substantial energy efficiency benefits they provide. Applications where motors are typically running at full speed on continuous duty (S1) cycles could benefit substantially from variable speed operation. This represents opportunities where return on investment (ROI) is more quickly realized, transforming the VFD market into a high growth market for years to come. These continuous duty cycle applications include blowers, compressors, fans and pumps. In addition, VFDs are increasingly being designed with a focus on connectivity to different types of motor technology, including traditional LV asynchronous motors, IE4 synchronous permanent magnet (PM) motors, synchronous reluctance motors, and servo motors. In 2013, AC induction and DC LV motor VFDs accounted for an estimated 62% of the global motor controls equipment market in terms of revenues. The VFD market is expected to post strong growth throughout the forecast period, due to systems efficiency legislation. The EU’s allowance of a VFD + an IE2 motor in 2015 and also in 2017 will also positively affect VFD revenues at the global level. Interestingly, EISA legislation of 2007 in the US LV motor market does not provide the VFD option to achieve the mandated IE3 (NEMA Premium) efficiency level that came into effect on December 19 th, 2010. As of this date, by law, only an IE3 or NEMA Premium motor may be sold into the US market. The same is true in the legislation produced by the National Research Council (NRC) for Canada’s transition to IE3 in early 2012. IHS believes the VFD allowance in the EU legislation will positively affect sales of both IE2 LV motors and LV VFDs in 2015. However, the positive effect on LV VFD sales is thought to be minimal at best, as the 2015 transition focuses on the power range that comprises only 3-4% of the EU LV motor market in terms of units. The EU begins the second phase of the transition to an IE3 level of efficiency in the region for LV motors below 7.5kW (10HP) in power rating, and also allows for the pairing of an IE2 LV motor with a VFD. Since this transition focuses on the portion of the LV market that accounts for nearly 97% share in terms of units. IHS expects that a significant boost to LV VFD sales will occur during years at the front end of the transition in the EU, namely 2017-2020.

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Systems efficiency legislation on the horizon A systems approach to efficiency is gaining increased focus when looking at the entire topography of the motor driven system in the automation environment. As of now, legislation in each of the three regions focuses solely upon the efficiency of individual, stand-alone LV motor. Currently, the EU is leading the way with systems efficiency legislation. When systems efficiency criteria do eventually come to fruition, they are expected to be applied to the industry sectors with the highest volumes of LV motors, and those high energy usage industry sectors that would benefit the most from the systems approach. Those LV motor industry sectors are thought to include pumps, fans, and compressors. A low efficiency peripheral component, such as a pump, attached to the motor system is often not considered. One low efficiency peripheral component, or a series of such low efficiency components, can often nullify the efficiency gains that the motor contributes to the system. An example of this would be an IE2 LV motor attached to a fluid pump that is only 30% efficient. The net efficiency of the system is still poor. Adding a VFD or a planetary gearbox to this system will increase the efficiency substantially, but the low efficiency pump component still results in low overall system efficiency. Pumps are notoriously low in efficiency, but this will change in the coming years due to new regulations intended to feed into the systems efficiency concept. Regulatory bodies in each region are looking to this systems approach in order to eventually require the entire system, with all peripherals included, to achieve a certain level of efficiency. For example, a motor+VFD+gearbox+pump system may have to achieve a theoretical IE5 or IE6 efficiency level. It is important to note that, at the time this report was compiled, the efficiency designations of IE5 and IE6 did not officially exist for motors or systems, nor have any regulatory bodies published any specifications for these efficiency designations. Years before the systems efficiency approach gained prominence a few years ago, pump and fan efficiency regulations were being created in the EU. As part of the Eco-design Directive 2005/32/EC, which was later revised to 2009/125/EC, pumps and fans will have to meet certain efficiency standards. In 2013, the EU implemented efficiency regulation 641/2009 for circulator pumps, and in 2015 this will be extended to water and wastewater pumps. Legislation passed in the EU in early 2014 under lot 11, EU 327/2011 derived from the same Eco-design Directive is intended to govern the efficiency of industrial fans. The second stage of these regulations is to be implemented starting in 2017. IHS believes that systems efficiency legislation will incentivize manufacturers to improve the quality of individual and peripheral components. The results will be twofold: increased profit margins for equipment manufacturers who are able to charge a premium price for equipment made from high quality material and enhanced ROI in the form of energy cost savings for those who embrace the systems efficiency approach.

Strong focus on reducing the lifetime costs of a low-voltage motor Many companies have invested a significant amount of resources into the replacement of inefficient and outdated LV motors. Turning over the installed base of motors contributed significantly good, annual revenue growth in many industrial automation product markets in the period leading up to the economic downturn and is expected to drive steady revenue growth during the remainder of the forecast period as ongoing transitions to the next higher efficiency class of LV motor peak in the EU and the Asia Pacific. Because of government regulations, energy efficiency continues to be the prime catalyst for enhanced inorganic revenue growth in the LV motor market. Industry sectors that account for the largest volumes of new motor sales include pumps, fans and compressors and are expected to be the largest beneficiaries in terms of energy cost savings, and typically provide the quickest payback periods because of the continuous duty cycle environments that characterize these sectors. The strong focus on reducing payback period has increased the industry’s focus on the emerging IE3 and IE4 markets. IHS predicts that by the end of the decade, magnet and non-magnet IE4 LV motor technologies will have gained a significant share of the market, and will eventually compete with established IE2 and IE3 motor markets. In 2018, it is expected that IE4 motors will grow to account for 3.9% of the global market in terms of revenues from 1.4% in 2013.

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2.2.4 Indirect influences on the low-voltage motor market Raw material price increases In 2012, the price of iron needed for steel production, copper for windings and rotors, as well as aluminum and other metals, all recovered from the global recession and returned to levels that resemble historical price increases. The cost of raw materials plays a significant role in ASPs, as an estimated 65% of the production cost of a LV motor is attributed to raw material costs. With the ongoing efficiency transitions to IE2 and IE3 occurring, which require higher grade steel and in some cases more copper, this production cost percentage is expected to rise significantly. It is interesting to note that there exists a fundamental market reality that these legislative actions require all manufacturers in a particular region to produce a motor that meets the same mandated efficiency rating, regardless of proprietary design. With the same efficiency standard being a common goal in any respective region, manufacturers are limited in how they can differentiate their respective IE2 and IE3 motor products and must rely heavily on price competition. Moderate to intense price competition among suppliers is likely to ensue immediately after legislation comes into effect.

Copper Copper windings are used in all motors regardless of efficiency class as this raw material contributes a significant portion of the total production cost of the motor. Copper is an excellent conductor of electrical current. Copper prices per metric ton more than doubled from 2005 to 2008. By mid-2013 the price of raw copper stabilized to an estimated $3.20 per pound or $7,045 per metric ton from a high of $4.50 per pound, or $9,907 per metric ton in 2011. At certain horsepower (HP) ratings an IE3/NEMA Premium motor may have more (or less) copper than the equivalent HP IE2/EPAct motor, and vice-versa. The relationship between copper content and HP is not linear within a defined efficiency class, nor is the relationship linear when comparing the copper content between efficiency classes. For example, at certain HP ratings an IE3 motor will have more copper than an IE2 motor of the same HP; likewise, an IE2 motor may have more copper than an IE3 motor of the same HP. Proprietary designs of high efficiency LV motors will often use a balance of copper and high grade steel to achieve a certain efficiency level. This balance differs between manufacturers, and even year to year in a motor’s design. The balance between copper and steel content varies, and is strongly tied to favorable raw materials pricing at the time of production.

Aluminum Most steel or iron enclosed motors use aluminum rotors. However, motors with aluminum enclosures represent a very small share of the global LV motors market. Aluminum prices increased by 40-50% from 2005 to 2008 before plummeting during the recession and, though they did not recover to their pre-recession levels at the end of 2010, they continue to steadily increase and tend towards levels indicated by historical price increases. Aluminum enclosures are custom made for application-specific purposes where high efficiency and a small form factor are desirable. Because aluminum is a softer metal than iron or steel, the large amounts of torque produced inside aluminum enclosures could literally rip the motor frame apart, so these motors are normally relegated to smaller frame sizes with low HP. IHS expects that aluminum enclosures on LV motors will continue to represent a small niche market and are unlikely to be off-the-shelf, massproduced motors kept in stock in significant volumes.

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High grade steel Steel (iron ore and carbon) enclosures represent the overwhelming majority of LV motor enclosures currently being produced. Higher quality steel is essential to maximize electrical conductivity within the motor itself, allowing a higher efficiency level to be achieved. Because of the need for higher quality steel, the bill of materials cost of an IE1 LV motor will be less than the cost of an IE2 LV motor, and likewise, considerably less than the cost to produce an IE3 LV motor. Steel producers are keenly aware of the efficiency mandates coming into play in various regions, which will result in increased demand for the higher quality steel needed to produce IE2 LV motors in Western Europe, Brazil, and China. This dynamic will be further escalated in 2015 and 2017 in the EU, when the IE3 transition comes into effect. There are significant differences between the form factors of IE1 and IE2 and IE3 motors of equal power ratings. A stand-alone comparison of a motor with its next higher level of efficiency counterpart is usually a 25-30% commercial cost increase. An obvious difference when comparing all three efficiency classes of LV motors is increased weight due to the denser, heavier steel and increased number of laminations found in the rotor. The production of raw stainless steel requires additional costs for steel manufacturers, as stainless steel enclosures, sometimes referred to as washdown motors, justify significantly higher costs than a normal steel enclosure. Stainless steel enclosures are much preferred in controlled environments because of their inherent ability to not add contaminants (e.g. paint chips from the motor’s coating, rust particles, etc.) to consumables. IHS believes that the demand for stainless steel enclosures will increase in industry sectors where strict quality controlled contamination-free environments are required, including food and beverage processing and handling, pharmaceuticals, and pure grade chemical production.

Dysprosium Dysprosium (Dy) is never found in nature as a free element, though it is found in various minerals, such as xenotime, fergusonite, gadolinite, euxenite, polycrase, blomstrandine, monazite and bastnäsite. Dysprosium is an essential compound for making control rods for nuclear reactors. Currently, most dysprosium is being mined from the clay ores of Southern China. Future sources include the Halls Creek region of Western Australia and the newly opened facility in Kuantan, Malaysia. In neodymium and samarium cobalt magnets, dysprosium accounts for 5-7% of the active material and is responsible for the magnet’s high heat tolerance. It is possible to reduce dysprosium’s share of the magnet’s composition to 2-3%, but this would result in the magnet having a lower heat threshold. China’s strong position in the rare earth mineral (REM) market and its careful control of its domestic supply and export quotas could mean that dysprosium shortages on a global scale are eminent. This is expected to result in design challenges for PM motor manufacturers. This has caused some IE4 motor manufacturers that rely on neodymium supply to take a second look at samarium cobalt (SmCO5) designs. Toshiba Corporation introduced dysprosium-free samarium cobalt-based IE4 motors into the Japanese market in late 2012 with great success. Revenues for Toshiba’s IE4 motor neared $30 million in 2013, the first year in the Japanese LV motor marketplace.

Neodymium China is the leading producer of neodymium (NdFeB) magnets and currently accounts for 97% of the world’s current production. Although the raw material monazite & bastnäsite ores exist almost everywhere in the world, China has a huge logistical advantage in that the country can locally mine the rare earth minerals (REMs) including neodymium and dysprosium, and locally process them into magnets resulting in abnormally low production costs for an expensive raw material and expensive manufacturing process. Should other countries mine these REMs, they must still rely on a third party (China) to process the minerals, which then nullifies any production advantage gained. In addition, China has a tremendous head-start in this market, as it has been producing large amounts of REMs for the last decade. Neodymium is not only important for producing high powered magnets for IE4 LV motors. The compound is essential in many consumer electronic products, especially audio speakers, headphones, and ear buds. Sintered neodymium magnets are also produced in Japan.

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In 2009, China exported an estimated 21.5k metric tons of neodymium magnets. In July 2010, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced plans to cut export quotas for REMs, including neodymium and dysprosium, by over 70% during the second half of 2010. In August 2010, two of China’s largest state-owned REM mining companies announced the creation of a unified pricing system that intends to give China greater control over the availability and supply of domestically produced REMs, including those needed to make neodymium. This bureaucracy was created in order to prevent hoarding of REMs and to limit speculators from adding volatility to the market. During 2010, China reduced its exports of neodymium magnets further to just over 15k metric tons. In 2011, the export cap was raised to 16k metric tons. In 2012, it was raised slightly, to just over 16k metric tons.

To give perspective, in 2012, China produced an estimated 80k metric tons of sintered neodymium magnets. A joint venture between Molycorp/Molyquench and Hitachi Metals will open an REM mining operation in North Carolina, US. It is estimated that it will be 5-7 years before this operation can produce 500 metric tons of REMs (not necessarily just neodymium and dysprosium). However, due to the global mining slowdown in 2013, the planned opening of the North Carolina REM mining operation has been delayed. The US Department of Energy has estimated that 28k metric tons of neodymium magnets will be needed in the US alone for not only LV industrial and commercial motors, but consumer electronics and other applications that are dependent on these magnets. IHS estimates that by 2015, over 400 companies in China will be producing neodymium magnets. At this time, it is estimated that China will still produce 80% of the global neodymium magnet supply. As is mentioned in Chapter 5, the Chinese Government is also offering rebates for using IE4 PM motors, which contain neodymium magnets. To a much smaller extent, neodymium mining also occurs in Canada, Brazil, Russia, Ukraine, India, Sri Lanka, and Australia. The actions of the Chinese Government concerning this specific compound, has caused an increase in neodymium composite mining operations throughout the world. However, it will be quite some time before REM mines in these regions will be able to enter the global supply chain in a significant way. Recently, Lynus Corporation, Ltd., an Australian REM mining company opened a refining facility in Kuantan, Malaysia. The refining facility entered production in 2013, producing 1,089 tons of rare earth oxides in the first quarter of 2014, with a target of 11,000 tons per annum.

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2.2.5 IE4 Super Premium Efficiency motors officially defined At the beginning of the decade, discussions of IE4 motor technologies gained significant momentum in large part due to sourcing issues for neodymium and dysprosium. For several years now, many motor manufacturers moved forward with their IE4 product lines before the IE4 designation was officially defined by the International Electrochemical Commission (IEC). In early 2014, the IEC published the standard IEC 60034-30-1:2014 titled Rotating electrical machines – Part 30-1: Efficiency classes of line operated AC motors which officially defines IE4 Super Premium Efficiency Motors and replaces the 2008 edition of IEC 60034-30. It is interesting to note that this regulation does not define a specific design type of IE4 LV motor. Creators of the legislation purposely left this detail undefined, which allows for all design types of IE4 LV motors currently in the marketplace and ones that are sure to enter the LV motor marketplace in the coming years. Due to the high magnetic flux capacity of sintered PMs that are 92-93% efficient, IE4 motors have gained interest from end-users wanting to achieve efficiencies greater than IE3 or NEMA Premium. IE4 motors have traditionally been used in continuous duty cycle (S1) applications where energy savings can be realized quickly, and heavily favored by the end-user market. Synchronous PM motors of all types are used in both commercial and industrial applications as all major industry sectors are taking a serious look at IE4 motor technologies. Despite the high premium to purchase these types of motors, the return on investment (ROI) in the form of energy savings is still highly favorable. Unlike LV asynchronous motors that inherently slip, which lowers efficiency, synchronous PM motors do not have slip and thus, energy losses are greatly minimized. As discussed, IE4 motors in the industrial environment are not a new concept in the motors industry. New IE4 technologies continue to emerge as manufacturers are looking to enhance their respective product lines in order to provide exceptionally high energy savings potential to their customers. In 2014, when discussing the IE4 motor market, several varieties of LV motors that achieve IE4 levels of efficiency must be included in the discussion. Subsequently, some manufacturers have been aggressive to get their respective IE4 designs from the research and development (R&D) lab and into the marketplace in the last two years. Improvements to traditional ferrite magnet technologies that can achieve IE4 levels of efficiency are also gaining prominence. End-equipment manufacturers such as pump makers Danfoss, Flowserve and KSB, and gearbox manufacturers such as Bauer Gear Motor are entering the IE4 market by using synchronous reluctance motors attached to their products. As was mentioned in Chapter 1, the IE4 end-equipment market is not included in this report. However, this market will be included in a dedicated IE4 motor report from IHS due to publish in early 2015. There are many advantages to using PM motors: 

They have higher power densities relative to frame size than asynchronous LV motors, allowing up to a 3x smaller frame size to generate the same power output as a larger frame size asynchronous motor of the same power rating.

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These synchronous LV motors typically offer a 15-20% increase in energy efficiency compared to an asynchronous motors of similar power rating, making them highly preferred in applications where exact, constant speeds are necessary (e.g. metering pumps, fiber-line extruders), or where low residual heat is preferred or required.

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They do not need a gearbox, and multiple PM motors can be run on a single VFD if they can all be synchronized to the same speed, such as with fiber-line extruders.

There are also some disadvantages to using PM motors: 

Traditional PM motors are expensive and the medium term market outlook on the cost on neodymium magnets for motor manufacturers is daunting.

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New ferrite magnet technologies are currently in R&D phases and have gained renewed interest as an alternative way for a LV motor to achieve an IE4 level of efficiency. When comparing the rising costs of PMs, these new ferrite technologies

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have only increased by 50-60% during the same time period. 

A VFD is needed because synchronous LV motors can’t be started directly offline. While VFDs are highly beneficial in some cases, they also add cost, and add a significant price premium to an already expensive PM motor.

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PMs have a high oxidation rate, which makes them unsuitable for applications where the motor will be exposed to a constant, high rate of moisture.

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There are also higher repair and maintenance costs associated with PM motors due to the danger involved in handling sintered neodymium and samarium cobalt magnets in close proximity to each other.

The efficiency ratings of the following PM motor designs place them in the IE4: Super Premium Efficiency motor segment.

Permanent magnet: neodymium The composition of this type of PM magnet involves the compound neodymium (Nd) combined with iron (Fe) and boron (B) to form a Nd2Fe14B magnet, or NIB magnet, which yields a higher flux capacity than samarium-cobalt (SmCO5) magnets used in traditional AC induction motors. Neodymium is a key component of alloys used to make lightweight, high power magnets. Neodymium is not found naturally in metallic form and must be extracted from monazite & bastnäsite ores and then chemically combined. As was mentioned, dysprosium is a key element needed in neodymium and samarium cobalt magnets to produce the high heat tolerances. Neodymium-based PM motors represent the vast majority of IE4 motors in the marketplace today. Major suppliers of these IE4 LV motors are ABB (Baldor), Lafert Group, Lafert Metric Motors, Leroy Somer, WEG, Yaskawa, SEW-Eurodrive, Marathon Electric, and US-based NovaTorque. Hyosung Corporation via its US-based affiliate HICO, introduced a neodymium-based IE4 LV motor in 2013 marking Hyosung Corporation’s official entry into the US LV motor market. The company also unveiled an IEEE 841 certified NEMA Premium motor in 2013. Despite Chinese Government incentives for IE4 PM motors, no major Chinese motor manufacturer is producing IE4 motors at this time. Brazilian manufacturer WEG introduced an IE5 version of the W-22 motor design. More copper was added to the WEG machine to achieve this efficiency.

Permanent magnet: samarium cobalt The development of new magnet technologies in the 1970s resulted in the introduction of samarium cobalt (SmCO 5) magnets which can produce efficiencies equivalent to IE4. These sintered magnets are ranked similarly in strength to neodymium magnets, but have higher heat tolerances and higher coercivity, which means they cannot be demagnetized easily. The magnet is highly suited for motors that must combine high heat resistance with high performance in a small size. In the mid-1980s, The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), a major source of the world’s cobalt supply, limited exports of cobalt sending the price of the these high powered magnets skyrocketing. The samarium cobalt magnet crisis in the mid-1980s mirrors the neodymium magnet crisis of 2011. The market’s reaction to the 1980s crisis magnet crisis was the introduction of neodymium-based magnets that were significantly lower in cost, and which are now used in most IE4 PM LV motors. As recently as May 2013, the DRC announced a total ban on the export of cobalt ores from July to August. TECO Electric & Machinery is trialing SmCO5 magnets for its IE4 LV motors in the Asia Pacific, while Lafert Group uses the compound (as well as neodymium) for its IE4 LV motors and for its servo motors. In late 2012, Toshiba Corporation (Tokyo) announced the development of a dysprosium-free SmCO5 magnet which it intends to sell into industrial applications.

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Copper rotors Over the past decades, motor manufacturers trialed the concept of copper rotor motors as a means to offer improved motor efficiency. It can be said that the copper rotor motor was the first IE4 LV motor before the concept of ‘efficiency classes’ dominated the LV motor market. However, high copper prices have not made the copper rotor concept a cost-effective solution for large-scale motor production, and the vast majority of motors continue to ship with aluminum rotors. The efficiency gains made by copper rotors, which are substantial, simply do not offset the higher prices that manufacturers must charge. Thus, suppliers typically only offer custom-made copper rotor motors that are suited for a specific application where the benefits greatly outweigh the higher cost of the motor. Some motor vendors reported that copper rotor motors were highly preferred when torque matching was of paramount importance to a specific application. In applications where a high starting or accelerating torque was required, a copper rotor would suffice without the need for additional electromagnetic design of other motor components. IHS believes that copper rotor motors will remain a “specialty motor”, and will not gain significant traction in the market as an “offthe-shelf” mass-produced variety of LV motor.

Permanent magnet: ECPM (DC brushless) Electrically Commutated Permanent Magnet motors are not a new technology. However, a proprietary design by US-based NovaTorque based on an ECPM design is new. The company has produced its NovaTorque PremiumPlus+ TM, which is essentially a brushless DC motor that can achieve higher than IE4 levels of energy efficiency. The company uses a unique design based on traditional ferrite magnet technology and boasts a selling price considerably lower than a standard off the shelf IE3/ NEMA Premium LV motor of the same horsepower. The company’s initial product line of these motors was in the 0.75kW – 2.2kW (1-3 HP) power ratings. NovaTorque has expanded to 5, 7.5 and 10HP ECPM motors. The company has recently gained traction in the marketplace in 2013 with its first major contract with a major industrial fan supplier.

Permanent magnet: amorphous metal + ferrite magnet An IE4 axial flux motor has been created by a joint venture between Hitachi Metals and Hitachi Industrial Equipment Systems. The technology uses traditional ferrite magnets (FM) and amorphous metal (AM) stacked cores in a synchronous motor design. Using an amorphous alloy ribbon made of iron (Fe), silicon (Si) and boron (B), the motor is 93% efficient and 94% efficient a t load torques between 50-75%. The advantages of this technology include: 

10x higher magnetization rate

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10% lower iron loss

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Higher efficiency (IE4) at higher torque ratings

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AM+FM used in combination realizes lowest core losses

The disadvantages of this technology include: 

AM stator has a high manufacturing cost

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An appropriate motor structure is needed for the AM stator

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AM is easily magnetized, but has a lower saturation rate

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FM has only 12% of the attraction force of neodymium or samarium cobalt magnets

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AM+FM has low starting torque (not good for electric vehicles)

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Hitachi has intended this design to be used for applications in large cooling fans and industrial fluid pumps.

No magnets: switched reluctance Switched reluctance (SR) technology has been around for more than a century, and they do not have, brushes, windings, commutators or magnets. Instead, they use a specialized rotor and stator to generate a reluctance torque from an electromagnetic field resulting in a robust, efficient, low-inertia solution that provides an alternative to conventional motors for applications like traction, pumping, and bulk-handling. The onset of inexpensive but powerful microprocessors has brought the technology into the realm of practicality. The pulse-width modulation scheme used for AC inverters tends to generate loss every time the insulated gate bipolar transistors (IGBTs) switch. Those switching losses generate heat, reducing efficiency. SR motors require switching as well, but at as much as an order of magnitude less frequently, resulting in lower switching losses within the power converter. Moreover, the absence of any conductors on the rotor eliminates conducted losses within the rotor further improving efficiencies. The advantages of this technology include: 

Less frequent switching within the power converter, which reduces switching overall losses

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The absence of conductors on the rotor eliminates conducted losses

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An SR motor can generate more torque than its equivalent frame size AC induction motor

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Because SR motors have no magnets, they have lower torque densities, but this allows for a substantially lower production cost

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SR motors have a high heat tolerance and can sustain prolonged operation that could demagnetize PMs

A disadvantage of this technology: 

The torque production mechanism of a SR motor generates a pulsating and uneven radial force on the stator (torque ripple), pushing it into an oval-shaped spin. This creates audible noise.

Ideal uses for SR motors include low-speed, high-torque applications that involve high levels of overhead torque and/or rapid starting duty, such as conveyors, feeders, slurry pumps, crushers, and extruders. They are also ideal for high-speed applications, in which the simplicity of the rotor construction means that there are no magnets or windings to be retained against the high centrifugal forces.

No magnets: synchronous reluctance Synchronous Reluctance motors that achieve an IE4 level of efficiency and have no magnets have been in the marketplace for quite some time. However, it is end-equipment manufacturers that are capitalizing on this motor design. It is thought that the independence of these motors from unstable REM prices has contributed to the adoption of this motor type by pump, fan and gearbox suppliers. ABB has developed a proprietary IE4 technology that also uses no magnets (SynRM) and sells this product in conjunction with an ABB-branded VFD. This product was released in the EMEA in late 2012 within IEC frame sizes of 160-315 and power output range of 11kW - 355kW (15HP – 476HP). ABB has sold just over a 1,000 units since introducing this product to the market in 2012.

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Compared to an IE2 motor, energy losses are reduced by up to 40% using a SynRM motor, and are easily interchangeable with IE2 motors without costly modification and equipment redesign. This motor also generates low heat, which prolongs bearing life. High speed operation helps eliminate mechanical power transmission peripherals such as gearboxes. When used with a drive, SynRM motors are more efficient than a VFD-driven IE3 AC induction motor. ABB unveiled an IE5 version of its SynRM machine in early 2014. However, traditional ferrite magnets were added to increase the efficiency to a theoretical IE5 efficiency rating. IHS expects that more IE4 technologies will surface in the marketplace in the future, and the spectrum for this market will only increase overtime as energy efficiency continues to be the prime focus of governments and motor manufacturers alike. It is thought that IE5 motors will not gain significant traction in the motor marketplace during the forecast period.

2.2.6 The IE4 market: perceived barriers & ROI justification The high costs of procuring PMs, the uncertainty surrounding the sourcing of the raw materials needed to produce them, and the R&D capital needed may seem cost-prohibitive for LV motor manufacturers to enter or compete effectively in the IE4 market. IHS has learned that the supply chain uncertainty of previous years has not caused a decrease in the number of suppliers entering the market. Application sectors where IE4 motor-equipped machinery is becoming more prevalent are Pumps, Fans, Compressors, Elevators & Lifts, Conveyors, and other applications with continuous (S1) or full duty cycles. Despite the high cost of IE4 motor-equipped machinery, suppliers can create a competitive advantage for themselves by accentuating the realizable high ROI that is achieved in a relatively short amount of time. In other words, the highly favorable ROI still significantly offsets the dramatic upfront price increase. US-based NovaTorque claims their IE4 ECPM machines are cost-competitive with NEMA Premium (IE3) LV motors. In addition, IHS believes that companies that are already established in the IE4 market are most affected by dramatic price increases because they run the increased risk of passing the magnet price increases directly onto a customer, who was used to paying less in the past for IE4-equipped machinery. New entrants into this market do not have to deal with this potentially damaging customer relationship issue because the entry price of their IE4 motor-equipped machinery is neither a shock to their current client base, nor is it disruptive to an established cost model for selling IE4 motor-equipped machinery. As was mentioned in previous sections, new ferrite technologies will significantly influence the dynamic of cost-prohibitive production of IE4equipped machines and the highly favorable ROI that they generate.

2.3 Direct influences on the global low-voltage motor market There are many direct influences on the LV motor market, some of which have been touched upon in previous sections in this chapter. Identification of these influences have been derived from extensive interviews with global, regional and local motor manufacturers and they are expected to impact the LV motor market to varying degrees during the forecast period. IHS will include region-specific and global influences in the following sections.

2.3.1 Organic revenue growth v. inorganic revenue growth It is important for the reader to keep in mind that revenue growth forecast in the world market for LV motors during the forecast period is based on two key factors: 

Organic revenue growth: Revenues generated from the market’s natural demand for LV motors, based heavily on economic circumstances

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Inorganic revenue growth: Enhancement of revenues generated by regional energy efficiency transitions to higher efficiency and thusly more expensive motors, regardless of economic circumstances

Depending on economic conditions, LV motors will always be in demand to some degree, whether for new factories or new project business, or as replacements for motors that have expired their usefulness. This is considered to be the primary driver of

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organic LV motor revenue growth. Energy efficiency regulations are created to conserve energy and have the added benefit of reducing the cost of ownership, and are intended to be unbiased by current or future economic conditions. Regulations in all three regions require that LV motors sold into a region for new factories or new project business, or as replacements need to be of a certain efficiency level. Subsequently, extra revenue growth is “piggy-backed” on top of organic demand in the form of LV motors that cost 30-40% more (respective to the region’s ASPs). During times of economic difficulty, organic revenue growth for LV motors comes purely from market demand, or the lack of it. This creates a dynamic that when demand is high, extra revenues are gained from the more expensive LV motor required to be purchased. Likewise, when demand is low, the extra revenue effect (inorganic revenue growth) is greatly diminished. The forecasts in this report are strongly linked to the rate of regional efficiency transitions because of the dramatic effect inorganic revenue growth has on LV motor market. If the transition goes quickly, revenues are enhanced greatly on a year to year basis, as a higher than normal increase in ASP accounts for this. If the transition goes slowly, revenues are built up at a lower rate on top of organic demand, or spread more evenly over the course of several years. Subsequently, slower rises in ASP from year to year result from this. This dynamic is thought to be slowing the transitions in the EU and China, both of which are experiencing low growth years in their respective LV motor markets.

Energy efficiency regulations v. market reality If one were to assess the current state of regional transitions to the next higher efficiency class of LV motor, all could be characterized as steadily ongoing, and slow. Through interviews and data collection for this report, it was found that in all three regions, efficiency transitions, even at the country level, are occurring slowly, sometimes as if no energy efficiency regulations have been implemented at all. This is due to several key factors: 

Unintended loopholes exist in the current regulations, which are being exploited in order to continue to provide the lowest-cost solution to customers.

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Lack of enforcement and testing to ensure a motor’s badge plate accurately reflects the motor’s stated energy efficiency rating

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Lack of punitive damages or other repercussions for known violations of the regulations

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Often the individuals who procure LV motors for a factory are concerned with purchasing the lowest-cost solution available, which will help their respective business with significant reduction in capital expenditure. This practice is rewarded internally with financial incentives. However, this practice is in conflict with the potential energy savings derived from the higher cost solution. Here, a conflict of interests exists between the equipment/machinery procurement department and the department that pays the electricity bills for the facility.

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Lower tier manufacturers had intentionally stockpiled LV motors of the outgoing efficiency class, reassuring their customers of continued availability, in order to have a plentiful inventory for years beyond the government implemented transition date. This contributed to the slow onset of the transition during the early years of the transition.



Some manufacturers reported that a significant portion of their 2012 and 2013 revenues were generated from efficiency classes of LV motors that regulations had intended to be discontinued 2-3 years, and sometimes 5-8 years prior.

It is important to consider that all these factors have a dramatic effect on not only regional LV motor revenues, but at the country and global level as well.

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Trends resulting from mandated efficiency changes These trends have evolved directly from the efficiency regulations implemented in each respective region. 

As a result of the IE2 transition in the EU states, and the allowance of VFDs in order to achieve IE3 levels of efficiency in 2015 and 2017, some European manufacturers are developing proprietary VFD technologies to work with only likebranded LV motors. Manufacturers that do not have a VFD product line are acquiring VFD engineering firms in order to develop their own proprietary VFD technologies.



European manufacturers continue to report an influx of “Black Sheep” LV motors from China that have not been tested or officially licensed as an IE2 motor. This has resulted in European manufacturers being severely undercut in price by imported IE2 motors that do not actually achieve IE2 levels of energy efficiency. This creates a situation where a customer falsely believes that they are receiving a good deal on an IE2 LV motor purchase and that they are also complying with the energy efficiency mandates.



Further on the “Black Sheep” problem, the ‘CЄ’ (“Conformité Européenne” or “European Conformity”) marking on an LV motor’s badge plate, which signifies that the LV motor is a product meeting the essential requirements and standards of the relevant European legislation (and therefore may legally be placed on the market and moved freely amongst members of EFTA and the European Community) is being purposely altered. The misleading alteration is a slightly longer center bar on the ‘Є’ symbol which is intended to fool duty inspectors into thinking the LV motor meets the requirements of “European Conformity”.



Some LV motor customers are using loopholes in the current legislation in order to exempt themselves from having to pay for a more expensive IE2 or IE3/NEMA Premium LV motor. Instead of ordering an IE2 motor to comply with regulations, some manufacturers have reported an increase in orders of slightly modified IE1 motors because the slightly modified IE1 motor is still less expensive than the stock IE2 or IE3 motor. Some customer-requested modifications to appear on the motor’s badge plate, therefore justifying exemption from the regulations, include: runs at 46 C°, operates at 4,600 meters elevation, operates with dust resistant seals, etc. However, new regulations in 2015 in North America and the European Union are working to close these loopholes and include more motor types and more duty cycles beyond S1.



Some European LV motor manufacturers reported that it is no longer cost-effective to produce OPD enclosures in smaller frame sizes due to the influx of low cost imported TEFC motors that are acting to cannibalize the smaller frame ODP segment.



IEC and CENELEC have included 8-pole LV motors in order to better align European legislation with NEMA legislation.



Some European manufacturers that previously outsourced a significant portion of LV motor production to China in order to cut costs are bringing some production back to Europe in order to distinguish themselves as premium motor manufacturers.



Some motor manufacturers are doing just the opposite. Low voltage motor production is increasingly being sourced from labor cost friendly countries like Thailand and Vietnam where an even lower breakeven point can be realized compared with a Chinese-made LV motor.

Trends resulting from Chinese REM export quotas 

As was discussed, the Chinese have limited exports on REMs, including those needed to make neodymium magnets. This has resulted in an intensified focus on alternative IE4 technologies and has made countries with significant mining industries like Brazil and Australia more proactive when considering domestic production of REMs.



New non-Chinese operated mining and processing facilities are expected to come online over the next few years to provide supply chain diversity for the global REM market. A new REM facility has been opened in Malaysia in 2013. A

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REM mining operation has been put on hold in the US (North Carolina). 

Engineering firms are developing new ferrite magnet technologies that can achieve IE4 levels of energy efficiency are becoming highly favorable target acquisitions or strategic partners with LV motor manufacturers. Production costs of ferrite magnet technologies are still considerably less than REM-based magnets.



New VFD technologies are being designed to maintain the same level of efficiency while requiring less REM-based magnets on the motor’s rotor allowing for a cost-reduction in the bill of materials.

IE4 market trends 

In 2014, The International Electrochemical Commission (IEC) published the standard IEC 60034-30-1:2014 titled Rotating electrical machines – Part 30-1: Efficiency classes of line operated AC motors which officially defines IE4 Super Premium Efficiency Motors and replaces the 2008 edition of IEC 60034-30.



Chinese Government has been offering incentives for purchasing IE4 synchronous motors over IE1, IE2 and IE3 motors since 2011. However, no major Chinese manufacturers are producing IE4 motors in 2013.



End-equipment suppliers (fan and pump makers) have entered the IE4 motor market by producing lower cost synchronous reluctance IE4 motors attached to their respective end-equipment.



IHS believes end-equipment production of low-cost IE4 LV motors will provide stiff competition to IE4 producers that manufacture expensive neodymium-based LV motors in low-power continuous duty cycle applications such as pump and fans and compressors.



Elevator, Escalator, and Lift OEMs are producing IE4 LV motors based on proprietary designs.



Established, stand-alone IE4 LV motor manufacturers are expanding the power ranges of their respective IEC-framed IE4 product lines in 2013 and 2014 to higher power ratings including 40HP and 50HP and above. Currently, US-based Baldor (now ABB) produces the highest power-rated NEMA-framed IE4 LV motors. The majority of IE4 motors in the marketplace currently are power rated at 0.75kW – 3.75kW (1HP – 5HP)



Reported data reveals that the majority of stand-alone IE4 LV motors are sold into the Process, or end-user sectors.



All IE4 LV motors require a VFD regardless of the type of IE4 technology used. The growing IE4 LV motor market is expected to add a modest boost to VFD sales.

Recent market activity and ongoing trends 

Mid-level, single-digit growth expected in Western Europe’s LV motor market in 2013 & 2014 due to recovery from global recession further slowed by the sovereign debt crisis in the European Union (EU).



Italian motor manufacturer Marelli Motori was acquired in August 2013 for €212 million by the private equity firm Carlyle Group.



Italian hazardous area LV motor manufacturer CEMP was acquired by Regal Beloit in November 2013 for an undisclosed amount. CEMP manufacturers hazard duty LV motor for oil and gas and the marine application.



ABB’s acquisition of US-based Baldor greatly enhanced ABB’s market share standing. In the Americas market and the global market, ABB is the share leader in 2012 and again in 2013.

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

Chinese motor manufacturer Wolong, strong in FHP appliance motors, acquired Austrian ATB Group for €101 million, along with its subsidiaries Brook Crompton, Schorch, Morley and Laurence Scott.

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The hazardous area LV motor segment has and continues to experience above normal growth over the past several years. Acquisitions of hazardous duty LV motor manufacturers, and expansion of existing hazardous duty LV motor product lines is on the rise.



Chinese manufacturers are targeting OEM distribution channels in Europe and the Americas in order to gain greater access into regional markets.



The influx of imported low cost LV motors into any given regional LV motor market has caused facilities owners to reevaluate the repair/replace threshold for a LV motor. The consensus opinion among motor manufacturers is that the traditional repair/replace threshold has increased from 11kW (15HP) to 37kW (50HP).



In the US and Canada there has been a rapid escalation in the number of imported machines using IEC frame motors, whereas previously NEMA frame motors were being used. This trend has been reported to be especially prevalent in offshore oil and gas and liquid natural gas (LNG) operations with a large installed base of IEC-based machinery. This has resulted in high growth of the IEC motor segment in a NEMA-centric market, with many IEC-centric manufacturers in the Americas, including Lafert Metric Motors, Brook Crompton, and WEG, being able to capitalize with replacement IEC product. The reverse of this trend is occurring outside North America in IEC-centric markets that do not favor NEMA-based machinery.



In the US, there is an increasing amount of hazard-specific legislation being produced by individual states requiring facilities owners operating in that state to minimize liabilities in certain industry sectors deemed to have hazardous working environments. However, worker safety has become a priority not only in the US, but in other regions. This has led not only to an increased demand for hazardous area motors, but has also led to many new entrants into the global and regional hazardous area LV motor markets.

New and ongoing regulatory activity 

The International Electrochemical Commission (IEC) published the standard IEC 60034-30-1:2014 titled Rotating electrical machines – Part 30-1: Efficiency classes of line operated AC motors which defines IE4 Super Premium Efficiency Motors and replaces the 2008 edition of IEC 60034-30.



The US Department of Energy has proposed new IHP LV motor efficiency standards on November 25, 2013. These standards should be completed by the second half of 2014.



On July 24, 2014 Commission Regulation EU 4/2014 comes into effect and is intended to amend existing EU MEPS Regulation EC 640. The purpose of EU 4/2014 is too close loopholes that were used in the market to contravene the spirit of the EU MEPS.



New regulations coming in 2014 and 2015 in the EU and the US will affect the ‘Other, non-classified’ motor segment (as defined in this report) to a modest degree. Some motor types that reside in this market segment will have to abide by these additional energy efficiency regulations starting in 2015.



Japan’s “Top Runner Program” will prompt industry to transition to IE3 motors starting in 2015. At that time, Japan will be the only industrialized nation that has skipped the shift to IE2 LV motors, and will begin its shift from an IE1 market to IE3.



In 2010, the US Department of Energy (US DOE) extended the IHP LV motor efficiency standards established by the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) to fractional horsepower motors (FHP). Fractional horsepower motors are <0.75kW/1HP. Single and three-phase general purpose FHP AC motors with frame sizes of 42, 48 and 56

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between ¼ and 0.75kW/1HP were included in the legislation and are expected to be built to this standard by March 9, 2015. 

Pre-cursors of systems efficiency regulations have been established. In 2013, the EU implemented efficiency regulation 641/2009 for circulator pumps, and in 2015 this will be extended to water and wastewater pumps. Legislation passed in the EU in early 2014 under lot 11, EU 327/2011 derived from the same Eco-design Directive is intended to govern the efficiency of industrial fans. The second stage of these regulations is to be implemented starting in 2017.



In 2015 and 2017, the EU will allow an IE2 motor+VFD in order to satisfy IE3 requirement; in contrast, IE3/NEMA Premium mandate in the US in December 2010 did not allow this option.



The US and Canada have the highest minimum LV motor efficiency regulations (IE3) in the world. Canada officially transitioned from IE2/EPAct to IE3/NEMA Premium beginning on January 1 st, 2012



Turkey officially transitioned from IE1 to IE2 beginning on June 18 th, 2012. Switzerland has announced intentions to transition from IE2 to IE3 in 2015

China 

Despite government incentives to domestic motor consumers that have been in place since 2011, no major Chinese motor manufacturers are producing IE4 PM motors in 2013.



After years of high growth, China’s LV motor market began to slow dramatically in mid- to late 2012, resulting in a 7.0% contraction. Revenue growth in 2013 in China was estimated to be less than 5%.



China officially began the transition to IE2/GB3 on September 1st, 2012. IE3/GB2 is planned for September 2016. Due to the severe contraction in the Chinese domestic market in 2012 and low growth in 2013, it is thought that a significant start to the transition to IE2 will be delayed for some years.



China has recently announced a new motor efficiency classification system to replace the previous Y-based system used since the 1950s. Please refer to Table 2.1 in this chapter.



Chinese “black sheep” IE1 motors imported into Europe claiming IE2 efficiency is still causing major problems.



China will continue to control the world’s neodymium and dysprosium supply. However, this has been a catalyst for alternative, lower cost IE4 technologies to emerge. Neodymium magnet price crisis caused by China reducing REM exports is similar to SmCO5 magnet crisis in mid-1980s.

DC motors 

The DC motor market continues to shrink rapidly, but remains a viable legacy replacement market. Most Tier 1 LV motor manufacturers have eliminated their respective IHP LV DC product lines.



DC LV motors are highly concentrated in the mill motor segment. Steel rolling mills in China & Japan have converted their DC installed base to AC induction.



Currently, the US has the largest DC motor installed base in the world. However, this market is declining rapidly.



To address the DC-to-AC transition, some companies are developing ‘drop-in’ AC induction replacement motors designed to DC specifications.

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2.4 Overview of the world market for low-voltage motors 2.4.1 Low-voltage motor efficiency legislation by region Most of the global LV motors market is transforming itself into an industry characterized by higher efficiency motors. This transformation began during the previous decade and will continue to play out during the forecast period and beyond. The following sections discuss the many region-specific motor efficiency legislations that are the impetus for this transition, and explain how these legislative measures affect regional motor manufacturers, machine builders, end-users, and distributors. Harmonization of local standards with international standards provides the global LV motors market with many benefits, including improved comparability of efficiency and energy consumption for the same types of motors in various regions and economic environments, minimized testing costs for all motor manufacturers (especially ones that provide motor products for global markets) and improved knowledge transfer, which enables faster implementation of standards into new legislation. Despite the harmonization of minimum efficiency limits, the different local regulations still diverge in many significant ways.

Evolving motor efficiency legislation in the European Union Motor systems in the EU were previously targeted by the Eco-Design Directive of 2005, which set minimum requirements for energy-using products. EU Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) set mandatory minimum efficiency levels for electric motors introduced into the European market, and were derived from the EuP Directive. However, in November 2009, the EuP Directive was modified and renamed the ErP (energy-related products) Directive. Valid licensure for the traditional EFF trademark for efficiency class designation expired on February 10, 2010. However, CEMEP allowed these previous licenses to be revalidated until June 15, 2011. The EU’s official transition to higher efficiency motors began on June 16, 2011 with Phase 1. Two successive phases will occur during the forecast period. After this date, LV motors manufactured inside the EU must meet IE2 efficiency level requirements and, likewise, foreign motor manufacturers can only sell IE2 LV motors into the region. Switzerland officially began its transition to IE2 class LV motors in January 2011. It is important to note that no efficiency legislation exists in the region outside of the states of the EU. In October 2008, the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) published the IEC 60034-30 (2008) International Efficiency Class standard in an effort to harmonize different requirements for integral horsepower induction motor efficiency levels around the world. This standard specifies efficiency classes for single-speed, three-phase 50Hz and 60Hz LV induction motors and effectively replaces the previous European Norm IEC/EN 60034-2-1 agreed upon in September 2007 by the European Committee of Electric and Power Electronic Machine Builders (CEMEP). The European Committee for Electrotechnical Standardization (CENELEC), in collaboration with the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC), passed additional legislation during 2010 which attempts to further harmonize motor standards. Legislative measure M/470 EN – Standardization of Electric Motors (IEC TC2 WG31) was passed on June 23, 2010 and applies to LV motors with power ratings of 18kW to 500kW (24HP to 670HP). To avoid highly technical aspects of the new legislation, these changes will be discussed in brief, with only the salient points highlighted. Most of the changes came in response from US manufacturers proposing that the IEC take action to better align IEC regulations with current NEMA regulations. Modifications to the 2010 IEC regulations included: 

8-pole LV motors now have to conform to the efficiency regulations whereas, previously, only 2, 4, and 6 poles were included.



New temperature classes were designated regarding continuous operations at a rated power output.



Motors with external brakes now have to conform to the efficiency regulations whereas, previously, they did not.

Also, additional modifications to IEC 60034-30 (2008) were incorporated into IEC 60034-30 2nd Edition (2012/13). These modifications are intended to include LV motors with sinusoidal voltages.

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Examples include: 

Fixed speed motor specifications, previously applicable to only asynchronous motors, must now include synchronous motors.



More inclusiveness of LV PM motors with variable speed sinusoidal voltages that run at speeds of 750-4500rpm. PM motors that must now conform to the efficiency regulations include: converter-fed (VFD-fed) PMs, line-start PMs, and other PM motors that produce a certain level of sinusoidal field reluctance.

However, 60034-30 2nd Edition (2012/13) did not address these types of LV motors: 

Variable speed, sinusoidal voltage motors including: DC motors, switched reluctance (SR), and brushless DC motors



Motors with integrated (not external) brakes

Motors that are specified to run at excessive temperatures, which includes motors used for: 

Smoke extraction



Operating in an environment above 400 C°



Operating in a cold storage warehouse environment



Operating within an oven

The following LV motor types remain exempt from 60034-30 2nd Edition (2012/13) because of the inability to accurately measure efficiency: 

Motors completely integrated into a machine



Motors with integrated VFDs



Motors with on-coil electronics



Motors operating inside an oven



Motors with internally cooled with refrigerant

On July 24th, 2014, Commission Regulation EU 4/2014 comes into force amending the existing EU MEPS Regulation EC 640. The purpose of this regulation is to close loopholes that were used in the market to undermine the intended spirit of the EU MEPS. The main changes affect Article 1 and Annex 1 of the original Regulation. Article 1, Point 2 of EU 4/2014 specifies the types of motors that excluded from the EU MEPS. Changes to Article 1, Point 2 states that the regulation does not apply to: 

Motors specified to operate wholly immersed in a liquid



Motors completely integrated into a product (for example gear, pump, fan or compressor) of which the energy performance cannot be tested independently from the product

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Wording in Article 1 pertaining to the operating status of a motor has also been refined. ‘Motors specifically designed to operate’ has changed to ‘Motors specified to operate exclusively’. Annex 1 specifies how rating plates should be marked. Manufacturers were previously obliged to mark efficiency of 100%, 75%, and 50% of rated load. Now, only the figure for 100% rated load needs to be shown, except on small motors where the small rating plate makes it difficult to list this information. In early 2014, the IEC replaced the 2008 directive with IEC 60034-30-1:2014, which officially defines the IE4 efficiency class. However, the standard does not distinguish between motor technologies, supply voltages or motors with increased insulation designed specifically for converter (VFD) operation. This allows different IE4 motor technologies to be compared with respect to their energy efficiency potential.

Efficiency transition schedule for the European Union Phase 1 began on June 16, 2011, and marks the beginning of the transition from IE1 motors to IE2 motors in the EU states. Motors manufactured or sold in the EU that have 2, 4, 6, or 8-poles with power ratings from 0.75kW to 375kW (1HP to 503HP), voltage ratings of up to 1,000V, run on continuous duty (S1) or intermittent duty (S2) cycles with a rated cyclic duration factor of 80% or higher, and have direct online operation capability, must comply with the regulations. As mentioned, motors exempt fro m the regulations include those made for converter operation, motors that are integrated into a machine (i.e. - pump, fan, and compressor) that cannot be tested separately from the machine, and motors that comply with hazardous duty regulations. Phase 2, scheduled to start on January 1st, 2015, marks the transition from IE2 motors to IE3 motors. This phase covers low voltage motors with the same pole and voltage characteristics and exclusions as Phase 1, but will apply only to motors with power ratings of 7.5kW to 375kW (10HP to 503HP). Basically, Phase 2 covers LV motors that constitute the minority share of the LV motor market in terms of units. At this time, all new LV motors will be required to meet IE3 energy efficiency levels. Machine builders and end-users can achieve this efficiency requirement by either replacing an IE1 or IE2 class installed LV motor with an IE3 motor, or by fitting an existing IE2 motor with a variable frequency drive (VFD) which will result in the motor’s efficie ncy being equivalent to that of an IE3 motor.

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Phase 3 will complete the transition from IE2 to IE3 motor efficiency levels in the EU. It is scheduled to occur on January 1, 2017, and covers motors with the same pole and voltage characteristics and exclusions as Phases 1 and 2, but will apply to motors having power ratings in the range of 0.75kW to 375kW (1HP to 503HP). Basically, Phase 3 covers LV motors that constitute the majority share of the market in terms of units. Like Phase 2, fitting an IE2 class LV motor with a VFD in order to produce efficiency ratings equivalent to IE3 class LV is also permitted during this phase.

Evolving motor efficiency legislation in the Americas region On December 19, 2010, the US required all 60Hz NEMA and IEC LV motors intended for general purpose applications to achieve NEMA Premium/IE3 Premium Efficiency ratings. In Canada, the implementation of NEMA Premium legislation happened in January 2012. Currently, the US and Canada are the only countries in the world that has officially mandated the transition to IE3/NEMA Premium motors. Brazil began its transition to the IE2 class LV motor class starting in December 2009. As mentioned previously, the EU will transition to IE3 beginning in 2015. The move to higher efficiency LV motors started in the US with the passing of the Energy Policy Act (EPAct) of 1992, which granted the US Department of Energy the authority to set minimum efficiency standards for certain types of electric motors. EPAct rules for motors became effective on October 24, 1997. All motors sold in the US after that date were required to have efficiency ratings equal to, or better than, those listed in the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) MG-1 standard. In 2001, NEMA also created a ‘better than EPAct’ designation called NEMA Premium, which is equivalent to the European IE3 rating. In actuality, the US and Canada started to transition to IE2 motors in 2002. The next major milestone came on December 19 th 2007, with the passage of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), with NEMA actively participating in creating the provisions for the legislation with the objective of increasing LV motor efficiency levels beyond those achieved by EPAct motors. The NEMA Premium requirement applies to motors that are run at continuous (S1) nominal full load duty cycles, and covers NEMA Designs A, B, C with round bodies and horizontal or vertical shafts. The legislation applies to both NEMA and IEC 2, 4, 6, and 8-pole open and closed frame single-phase and three-phase motors with power ratings of 0.75kW to 375kW (1HP to 500HP), and with voltage ratings of 600V or less. Low voltage motors that are not considered to be used in general purpose applications are exempt from the EISA regulation. Exempt LV motors include those with: 

Special shaft extensions



10 or more poles



50Hz and other special voltage and frequency rated inverter motors



Non-continuous duty cycles



Motors operating inside an oven



Motors internally cooled with refrigerant



TENV enclosed LV motors



NEMA frame sizes 48 and 56 and above NEMA (ANEMA) frame sizes, which are above NEMA frame size 440

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It is important to note that the NEMA 56 frame size LV motor can often be designated as a fractional horsepower motor, and not an integral horsepower motor. This is all dependent upon at what speed the 56 frame LV motor is run. It is quite possible that a NEMA 56 frame LV motor can generate 1, 2, or 3HP at a certain revolution per minute (RPM), and that same motor can generate a fractional HP at a different RPM. IHS has used due diligence with manufacturers to ensure that data reported in the NEMA 56 frame segment in this report includes only those intended for applications requiring an integral HP power output. NEMA 56 frames reported as sold into the EMEA and Asia Pacific regions are subject to the same criteria. On November 25, 2013, the US Department of Energy (DOE) based the proposed new motors standards on a joint recommendation filed by manufacturers and efficiency advocates, including the Appliance Standards Awareness Project (ASAP) and the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE), in August 2012. Two years in the making, the recommendation took an innovative approach. Rather than trying to set slightly higher standards for electric motors already covered by two rounds of previous US regulations, it was recommended that the DOE expand the scope of coverage to many motor types not previously regulated. Some of the motors that will see improved efficiency with these new DOE standards include gear motors used in equipment like escalators and conveyors, and vertical pump motors used in irrigation and many municipal water and wastewater systems. The proposed standards cover 1 to 500HP motors. (The new standards cover polyphase motors only; residential products use single phase motors, and therefore are not covered by this standard.)

Motor efficiency legislation in the Asia Pacific region The Asia Pacific region currently accounts for the largest share of IE1 motors in the world. China officially began its transition to IE2/GB3 on September 1st, 2012. It is expected that this region will remain a robust IE1 motor market for the foreseeable future, due to the vast majority of Asian nations that have yet to adopt efficiency regulations and the expected slow transition to IE2 in China. Since 2006, Australia, New Zealand (Oceania) and South Korea are the only countries in the region to have legislated a shift to motors. Some countries have even announced their intention to transition to IE3 motors in the future. Although the Indian Bureau of Energy Efficiency officially recognized the IE2 and IE3 classes of LV motors in 2011 in order to begin working on standards and labeling, an official announcement of when a transition to a higher motor efficiency level is still forthcoming. South Korea began its two-phase legislated transition to IE2 on January 1, 2008. Phase 1 covered 2, 4, and 6-pole motors with power ratings of 45kW to 200kW (62HP to 268HP). Phase 2 began on January 1 st, 2010 and covered motors with power ratings of 0.75kW to 37kW (1HP to 50HP). Unlike the EU and North American legislation, geared motors, and motors used for inverter duty must all meet the IE2 efficiency levels in South Korea. Exceptions to South Korea’s LV motor legislation include motors running on intermittent (S2) duty cycles, motors having explosion-proof or non-ventilated enclosures, and single-phase motors. According to reported data for 2013, IE2 LV motor shipments into South Korea now outnumber IE1 LV motors, which is further evidence of the trend of the slowly occurring transitions to the next higher efficiency class of LV motor that has been evident in all regions.

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In terms of units and revenues, China is easily the largest market for LV motors in the Asia Pacific region. There are currently three series of motors in widespread use in the China. The JO series was developed in the 1950s in Russia and redesigned in China in the 1970s; it has been banned since 1984. The Y series, which is equivalent to European ‘EFF 3’ and is significantly below EPAct efficiency levels in the US, was designed in China in the 1980s. Finally the Y2 series, which is equivalent to EFF2 but still below US EPAct efficiency levels, was developed in the 1990s. While the newer Y series motors are better optimized, much of the optimization has been to reduce material consumption, not to increase motor efficiencies. China’s legislated transition to Y2 motors, which are equivalent to IE1 efficiency levels began on July 1 st, 2007 and includes 2, 4, and 6-pole motors with power ratings from 0.55kW to 315kW (0.74HP to 422HP). The next draft of the motor efficiency legislation was ratified into law in 2011. Brake motors and geared motors will not have to meet these requirements. At the time this report was published, there have been no official announcements, amendments or new loophole-closing regulatory activity to the existing regulations in the Asia Pacific region.

2.4.2 The world market for low-voltage motors by efficiency class Table 2.1 & Figures 2.1, 2.2 and 2.3 The world market for LV motors was estimated to be worth $15,595.3 million in 2013, with more than 49.7 million units shipped during the year. The previous year brought new economic difficulties with an ongoing Eurozone debt crisis and the sudden, unexpected 7.0% contraction in the Chinese LV motor market. As a result of this, the global LV motor market grew by a modest 5.7% in terms of revenues and 3.3% in terms of units in 2012. In 2013, the market improved slightly over 2012 posting 6.6% revenue growth and 3.6% unit growth. IHS has altered its forecast from the base year of 2012 in the last edition of this report. It is thought that a lackluster 2012, albeit a slight improvement in 2013 and 2014 have significantly slowed inorganic revenue growth at the global level. The exception is the Americas region which had healthy growth rates during these years. However, double-digit growth rates at the global level reminiscent of pre-recession market and previously thought to return in 2013 have been pushed out further to 2015. At this time it is expected that the Eurozone will have the worst of the debt crisis behind it, and that the Chinese LV motor market will have stabilized. The stabilizing US and Brazilian economies, the shale gas boom in the US, the intensifying transition to IE3/NEMA Premium, and signs of the return of the US manufacturing base have acted as a buoyant force bolstering a predicted 8.4% growth in revenues at the global level in 2014. By 2018, IHS expects the global LV motor market to increase to $25,441 million, with unit shipments estimated to be 63.8 million. It is important to note that another wave of inorganic revenue growth is expected to start in 2017, when the EU begins to transition the bulk of its motor market, that is power ratings of 0.75kW – 7.5kW (1 – 10HP), to IE3. However, IE2 motors with a VFD will be allowed at this time and will have a negating impact on IE3 motor revenues to some degree. It is thought that, barring another catastrophic economic setback for the EU, 2018 and 2019 should post revenue growth in the 12-15% range. A breakdown of the estimated global market for LV motors in 2013 by share of revenues and share of units is presented here: 

IE1 motors are still the largest portion of the global LV motor market, accounting for more than 44% of revenues and 63% of units shipped. This efficiency class is on the steady decline, but still present in all regions to some extent. However, the IE1 market will still experience healthy growth in countries with no energy efficiency regulations. The IE1 market is expected to generate a CAGR of -1.6% for revenues during the forecast period.



IE2 motors accounted for the second largest portion of the market, growing to 23% of global LV motor market revenues and more than 20% of unit shipments. The majority of these IE2/EPAct motors were sold into Western Europe, North America and Brazil. The IE2 market is expected to generate a CAGR of 17.6% for revenues during the forecast period.



IE3/NEMA Premium class LV motors grew to account for 22% of global LV motor market revenues and 15% of all units. Japan’s transition to IE3 beginning in 2015 should add significantly to the IE3 LV motor market value. The vast majority of these motors were sold into the US and Canadian markets in 2013. The IE3 market is expected to generate a

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CAGR of 55.5% for revenues during the forecast period. 

IE4 class LV motors accounted for over 1.4% of global LV motor market revenues and 0.35% of all units. The majority of IE4 motors in the marketplace are power rated at 0.75kW – 3.75kW (1HP – 5HP), and are neodymium magnet-based motors sold into Western Europe and the US. The IE4 market is expected to generate a CAGR of 25.9% for revenues during the forecast period. The IE4 market has been revised downward for the 2014 edition of this report, compared to the 2012 edition. It was found that, despite Chinese Government incentives for using PM motors, no major Chinese suppliers had a PM motor product line in 2013.



DC motors decreased to 1.1% of global LV motor market revenues and 1.1% of all units. The US is considered to be the largest DC motor market in the world. The DC motor market is expected to generate a CAGR of -18.8% for revenues during the forecast period.



Other, non-regulated motors accounted for 8.1% of global LV motor market revenues and 0.7% of all units. The Other, non-regulated motor market is expected to generate a CAGR of 13.1% for revenues during the forecast period. As mentioned in the previous section, new regulations coming in 2015 in the US and the EU will affect this motor segment.

The global product mix for the efficiency regulated motors is projected to change significantly between now and end of the forecast period. IHS predicts that by 2018, IE2 motors will account for the largest share of the market at nearly 32% of global LV motor market revenues and 32% of all units shipped. As was previously mentioned, the IE3 market could experience another significant growth phase in Japan and Western Europe during the years 2015-2020.

2.4.3 The world market for low-voltage motors by region Table 2.2 & Figures 2.4 and 2.5 The EMEA region was the second largest regional market for LV motors in 2013, estimated to account for $5,007.8 million, or 32% of the global LV motor market during the year in terms of revenues and 26% in terms of units. The region experienced modest revenue growth of 5.1% during the year due to ongoing recovery from Eurozone debt crisis and the transition to IE2 beginning to gain momentum. Strong oil and gas operations in Russia, Africa and the Middle East are thought to have lessened the severity of the region’s LV motor market growth. However, growth in these regional sectors is expected to be offset somewhat by the shale gas boom in North America over the coming years. Modest revenue growth of 8.4% in 2014 is predicted as the region stabilizes from the sovereign debt crisis. This year will market the third full year into the EU’s transition to IE2 as inorganic revenue growth resulting from the EU MEPS is expected to gai n momentum. In 2013, there is still a significant amount of IE1 motors being sold into EU states, albeit reported data indicates that less IE1s are being sold into EU states each consecutive year since 2011. IHS predicts that the next efficiency transition in the EU states, in 2015, (Phase 2) will contribute only modestly to the 10.0% revenue growth forecast for that year, due to the legislative transition to IE3 motors only affecting sales of LV motors above 7.5kW (10HP) in power rating, which are in the minority share of the market. Overall, the region is projected to underperform the global market average of 9.9% during the forecast period, generating a CAGR of 9.1% for revenues. The Americas region was third largest and accounted for $5,047 million or an estimated 32% of the global market in terms of revenues, and 23% in terms of units in 2013. The region’s robust revenue growth from 2010 through 2012 is a result of a strong rebound in organic demand in the North American market, and three efficiency transitions within the region occurring simultaneously. The decline of revenue growth to 9.2% in 2013 from 14.1% in 2012 can be contributed to a slowdown in mining, and still-recovering US and Brazilian economies. In 2013, the US market could be characterized with each motor efficiency class having a significant share of the market, with IE3/NEMA Premium market overtaking IE2/EPAct motors in terms of revenues. However, in 2013, IE1/Below EPAct motors are still being sold into the US despite regulations implemented over a decade ago intended to eliminate this efficiency class from the US market.

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The Americas market is expected to continue to grow at double-digits through 2018. By 2015, it is expected that the transition to IE3/NEMA Premium will be mostly complete, with this motor segment expected to be the largest market in the region in terms of revenues. Due to the strong rebound from the global recession, strong oil and gas operation in the US, Canada and South America, and the ongoing efficiency transition in the US that is inorganically enhancing revenue growth, the region is predicted to outperform the global market average during the forecast period, generating a CAGR of 12.6% for revenues. At the time this report was published, no new efficiency transitions have been announced in the Americas region. The Asia Pacific region is the largest region for LV motors, accounting for $5,540 million or 35.3% of the global market in terms of revenues and 50.6% in terms of units in 2013. The region’s LV market was least affected by the global recession and posted double-digit revenue growth even though the worst years. This healthy growth in a depressed global market is most likely due to the booming LV motor market in China and India. It is interesting to note that the double-digit revenue growth from 2009 to 2011 for this region was based purely on organic demand for LV motors, and not influenced by a regulated transition to more expensive LV motors like in the EMEA and Americas regions. However, the Chinese market slowed considerably in 2012, with the Chinese market contracting by an estimated 7.0% during the year. China alone accounts for over 52% of revenues in the region, and the contraction in 2012 resulted in the entire region contracting by 0.8%, with only 1.5% unit growth from 2011. In 2013, the China market stabilized to positive growth that remained below 5.0%. The Asia Pacific region is expected to perform under the global market average during the forecast period, generating a CAGR of 8.4% for revenues.

2.4.4 The world market for low-voltage motors by application Table 2.3a and 2.3b & Figures 2.6 and 2.7 Pumps, fans and compressors comprise the vast majority of the global market for LV motors in any given year. Combined, these applications were estimated to account for 79% of global market in terms of revenues and 83% of units shipped during 2013. Because of the Eurozone debt crisis and the negative growth in the Chinese market, some industry sectors experienced very low growth with some contractions including Cranes & Hoists, Printing, and Propulsion. IHS does take into account that pumps, fans and compressors are found in most industry sectors, with the majority having power ratings in the 1HP to 15HP (0.75kW to 11.2kW) range. Application sectors that are forecast to slightly outperform the global market average include Compressors, Conveyors, Elevators & Escalators, Extruders, Fans, Roller Tables and Pumps at 10.1%, 9.5%, 10.0%, 11.2%, 10.1%, 11.0 and 10.3%, respectively. Propulsion is expected to significantly underperforming the market average at 3.9% due to a slowdown in China’s shipbuilding industry where lots of consolidation of the remaining profitable shipyards has recently taken place.

2.4.5 The world market for low-voltage motors by industry sector Tables 2.4, 2.5a and 2.5b & Figures 2.8 and 2.9, Table 2.6 & Figures 2.10 and 2.11, Table 2.7 & Figures 2.12 and 2.13 Gross domestic product (GDP) is considered to be an accurate assessment of overall economic growth. However, machinery production (MP) is believed to be a better indicator when evaluating the performance of the LV motors market. IHS has incorporated the forecasts for world and regional MP growth into the forecast model in order to accurately assess the development and future outlook of the LV motor market. Regional GDP and MP forecasts are provided as an added reference, and can be found in Appendix 3 at the back of this report. IHS covers three major manufacturing sectors: Discrete Manufacturing, Process Manufacturing and Other Manufacturing.

Discrete manufacturing sector Revenues for LV motors sold into the Discrete Manufacturing Sector (OEMs/machine builders), accounted for an estimated $10,463 million, or 67% of revenues of the world market in 2013. In terms of units, the sector accounts for over 74% of units shipped. At the global level, the Discrete Manufacturing Sector is predicted to slightly outperform the global market average, generating a CAGR of 10.2% during the forecast period.

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Several Discrete sectors are forecast to slightly outperform the global market average during the forecast period, including Commercial HVAC, Elevators & Escalators Food, Beverage & Tobacco, Machine Tools, Packaging & Labeling, and Rubber & Plastics. The Mining sector has cooled off greatly after consecutive years of robust growth, posting positive growth of 0.1% in 2013. The Mining sector in the region is expected to perform slightly above the market average of 10.1% CAGR for revenues during the forecast period. Discrete sectors forecast to significantly underperform the global market average include Automotive, Cranes & Hoists, Printing, Shipbuilding & Marine and Woodworking at CAGRs for revenues of 8.3%, 7.3%, 0.1%, 6.1% and 8.3%, respectively.

Process manufacturing sector Revenues for LV motors sold into the Process Manufacturing Sector (end-user market), accounted for an estimated $4,297 million, or 27% of revenues of the world market in 2013. In terms of units, the sector accounts for nearly 20% of units shipped. At the global level, the sector is predicted to perform under the global market average, generating a CAGR of 9.4% for revenues during the forecast period. Several Discrete Manufacturing sectors are forecast to outperform the global market average during the forecast period, including Chemical, Food, Beverage & Tobacco, Mining, Oil & Gas and Rubber & Plastics. Despite 5.0% growth in 2013, steady revenue growth in upwards of 11% expected at the global level in this sector starting in 2016. Process sectors forecast to significantly underperform the global market average include Metals Processing and Pharmaceuticals at CAGRs for revenues of 7.2% and 8.2%.

Other manufacturing sector Revenues for LV motors sold into the Other Manufacturing Sector, accounted for an estimated $835.1 million and 3,111k units shipped in 2013. In terms of units, the sector accounts for 6% of units shipped globally. At the global level, the sector is predicted to perform under the global market average, generating a CAGR of 7.9% for revenues during the forecast period. Only one Other Manufacturing sector, Infrastructure, is forecast to perform at the global market average during the forecast period, generating a CAGR for revenues of 9.9%.

2.4.6 Low-voltage motor market in the European Union in 2015 and 2017 The 2017 efficiency transition to IE3 in the EU affects LV motors below 7.5kW (10HP) which constitute the majority of revenues and units in the EU. This event will have a dramatic effect on the course of the LV motor market in the entire EMEA region, which will in turn have a significant effect on global market revenues. However, there are several considerations and questions to take into account when attempting to predict how the LV motor market will evolve as 2017 nears and how it will progress beyond the forecast period: 

The majority of LV motors under 7.5kW (10HP) are sold into the machine builder sectors.



Will LV motor manufacturers present a convincing value proposition for machine builders to embrace the IE3 alternative over the IE2+VFD solution?



IHS has forecast the ASP of LV VFDs will continue to drop through 2018; will the IE2+VFD solution be more cost efficient for machine builders than adopting IE3 motors?



Because of the higher grade of steel and the addition of more laminations, and in some cases more copper content, IE3 motors are significantly heavier and have longer shaft sizes than IE2 motors. Will the cost of redesigning the specifications of a machine to accommodate an IE3 motor be unfavorable for machine builders considering the IE3 option? Likewise, will altering design specifications of a machine to incorporate an IE2 motor and a VFD, which also adds cost, be unfavorable to machine builders?



The end-user market is typically more concerned with energy efficiency as the cost of energy for running projects and

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operations with strict budget outlays has a major influence. The end-user sector has less influence on the market by nature of generating less than half of the revenues of the machine builder sector and less than one-third of the units shipped by machine builders. Hence, due to the energy savings, will the IE3 solution be more attractive for end-users than the IE2+VFD solution? 

Comparatively, energy efficiency gains of a stand-alone IE3 motor without a VFD versus an IE2+VFD solution are minimal. Additionally an IE2+VFD solution and an IE3+VFD solution both increase energy efficiency. Comparatively, the IE2+VFD solution has been shown to produce higher gains in energy efficiency compared to the gains in efficiency of an IE3+VFD solution.



Sufficient evidence has been given that the efficiency transitions currently occurring in all three regions are proceeding gradually. Will the IE3 transition in the EU also follow the same dynamic, where significant adoption of IE3 motors is pushed out further into the next decade than intended?



If the adoption of the IE2+VFD solution is embraced by machine builders and end-users alike in 2017 and beyond will the IE3 market fail to gain significant traction in the market?



Integrated LV motors (which are not included in the data of this report) are LV motors with a VFD directly mounted or “piggy-backed” onto the motor, or directly integrated into it. Currently, the integrated motor market is gaining popularity in the EU, where de-centralized motor system topographies are preferred. How will the growth of the integrated motor market influence the machine builder market? The end user market? The transition to IE3 motors?

Machine builders hold a majority influence in the LV motor market at both the regional and global level, and are more concerned with obtaining the lowest cost solution over energy efficient alternatives of higher cost. In most cases, end-users have opposite concerns, and are heavily influenced by the cost of ownership of the LV motor. These considerations will become more significant towards the end of the forecast period. IHS does not claim to be omniscient about how these specific markets will play out in the years leading up to the various transitions in China, Japan, and Western Europe, and the years beyond the forecast period.

2.4.7 The world market for low-voltage motors by frame size Tables 2.8, 2.9 and 2.10 & Figures 2.14, 2.15, 2.16 and 2.17 In 2013, IEC frame LV motors accounted for an estimated $11,561 million in revenues, or nearly 74% of the global market and 83% of units shipped. IEC frame LV motors are heavily concentrated in EMEA, South America and the Asia Pacific. However, IEC frame LV motors account for a growingly significant portion of the North American market (NAm) as well as discussed in Chapter 4. The IEC frame market is expected to underperform the global market average of 9.9%, generating a CAGR of 9.1% for revenues during the forecast period for the following reasons: The IEC frame LV motor segment is growing steadily in the NEMA-centric North American (NAm) market. However, the IEC market in the NAm LV motor market is thought to account for about $130 million in 2013. At the global level, this NAm portion of the IEC market accounts for less than 1% in terms of revenues and thusly, high growth in the NEMA-centric NAm market will have minimal effect on the CAGR of the IEC market at the global level through 2018. IEC frame sizes of 80-225 are forecast to perform at or slightly above the global market average during the forecast period. NEMA frame LV motors, most of which are concentrated in the NAm market, accounted for an estimated $4,034.2 million in revenues, or just over 26% of the global market and 17% of units shipped in 2013. The NEMA fame market is expected to significantly outperform the global market average, generating a CAGR of 12.3% during the forecast period. NEMA frame sizes of 56-326 are expected to perform above or at the global market average during the forecast period. Research has indicated that many more IEC frame LV motors are exported into North America than are NEMA frame LV motors. This is because foreign OEMs are increasingly fitting North America-bound machines with IEC frame LV motors. IHS expects this trend to continue.

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2.4.8 The world market for low-voltage motors by sales channel Table 2.11 & Figures 2.18 and 2.19 The channels by which LV motors are sold are relatively similar in all regions due to the strong influence of discrete manufacturing (machine builder) sectors on the market. Markets that have strong mining and oil and gas sectors are characterized as primarily end-user markets. These markets include Australia (and New Zealand), Canada, Africa, the Middle East and parts of South America. During economic downturns, end-user markets typically bear the majority of the economic difficulties and are also the slowest to recover. However, the exceptions are emerging economies such as those listed above, which are somewhat insulated by economic downturns by virtue of not having the broad spectrum of end-user markets that established economies have. There is a growing trend of Tier 2 and Tier 3 manufacturers trying to enter the OEM market, and thusly trying to gain access to distribution channels which supply them. In the last two years, Chinese LV motor manufacturers have been targeting increased penetration into Europe via distribution to OEM channels by severely undercutting the local competition in price. This has been, and continues to be a problem in Europe resulting from the proliferation of “black sheep” motors described in previous sections in this chapter. On a global level, this problem can be compounded by virtue of OEMs actively seeking the lowest cost solution, which can work against government regulated objectives of energy efficiency. In 2013, Direct to OEM sales were estimated to account for $11,233 million, while Distribution to OEMs accounted $667 million. Together, the OEM channels account for 76% of global revenues and 82% of units shipped. In contrast, the end-user channels together account for 20% of global revenues and nearly 15% of units shipped. For the most part, Direct channels typically have higher CAGRs than Distribution channels. The Direct to OEM channel is forecast to slightly outperform the global market average during the forecast period, generating a CAGR of 10.3%. The Direct to End-user channel is projected to underperform the market at 8.6%. The Direct to Systems Integrator channel is forecast to perform at the global market average during the forecast period. Larger more expensive LV motors comprise the majority of LV motors sold into these channels. In addition, systems integrators are not usually constrained by a budget, are not cost-sensitive, and charge a premium price for equipment they sell and the services they offer.

2.4.9 The world market for low-voltage motors by power rating Table 2.12 & Figures 2.20 and 2.21 In 2013, an estimated 75% of global market revenues were generated from LV motors with power ratings from 0.75kW – 7.5kW (1HP – 10HP). The single largest category in terms of revenues represents is 0.75kW – 1.5kW (1HP – 2HP). This segment alone accounted for $4,568 million, or 29% of global market revenues during the year and 58% of units shipped. The three segments accounting for power ratings from 0.75kW – 10kW (1HP – 10HP) are forecast to perform at or slightly above the global market average, generating CAGRs for revenues of 10.1%, 10.3% and 10.9%, respectively.

2.4.10 The world market for low voltage motors by enclosure type Table 2.13 & Figures 2.22 and 2.23

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The most prevalent enclosure type for LV motors is non-hazardous totally enclosed fan-cooled (TEFC). In 2013, TEFC nonhazardous LV motors accounted for an estimated 79% of global market revenues and 84% of units shipped. Because TEFC enclosures are most commonly general purpose motors, a usage model which defines the whole of the LV motor market, IHS expects this segment to remain the in the majority in terms of revenues and units. The segment is forecast to perform slightly below the market average of 9.9% at 9.8% during the forecast period. There is growing demand for hazardous area TEFC motors which are expected greatly outperform the global market average, generating a CAGR of 12.2% for revenues. In general, hazardous area industrial equipment (not just LV motors) is a growing market due to increased concern about safety and liability in the automated factory environment. The explosion proof motor, formerly referred to as the XP segment, is actually a subcategory of TEFC. An XP class motor uses a thicker grade of metal to protect the motor from a hazardous environment, or to minimize the potential for an unchecked ignition source to cause the motor to explode. The European equivalents of the North American-centric XP motor are also included in the TEFC/hazardous area segment. These equivalents include: Ex d (flameproof), Exe (increased safety), Exia and EXib (intrinsically safe), Exo (oil immersion), Exp (pressurized apparatus), Exq (powder filling), Exm (encapsulation) and Exn (non-sparking). Hazardous area LV motors are typically only produced in a totally enclosed design. ODP enclosures are also forecast to outperform the global market average, generating a CAGR for revenues of 10.5%. OPD enclosures are not in great demand in Europe and the Asia Pacific, most likely due to Chinese and European TEFC imports that undercut pricing severely, and work to cannibalize the market for the ODP enclosure. However, ODP enclosures are in great demand in the NEMA-centric NAm market. As was discussed in the previous section in this chapter, NEMA frame motors are predicted to outperform the global market average, and thusly, the ODP enclosure will also benefit from a revenue perspective.

2.5 World market share analysis for 2013 Table 2.14 Low voltage motor manufacturers that have less than a 1.0% market share do not appear on Table 2.14, and are represented as a cumulative total in the Others grouping. Switzerland-based ABB remained at the top share position in the world market for LV motors having an estimated 13% share of the market in 2013, down from 14.0% in 2012. ABB’s position in the NAm market was enhanced greatly with the Baldor acquisition two years prior. Baldor has a minimal presence in the EMEA and Asia Pacific regions and will benefit greatly by leveraging ABB’s established distribution channels. Siemens assumes the second share place, growing to own 10.0% share, up from 9.5% in the previous year, as the German manufacturer accounts for a significant portion of LV motor revenues in each region and had strong growth during the year in the Americas market. Brazilian manufacturer WEG is estimated to have held the third highest world share position at 7.5%, up 0.5% from the previous year. Regal Beloit held the fourth share position at 3.0%. CORRECTION: US-based Regal Beloit’s LV motor revenues in the Americas were overstated by IHS for the base year 2012 in the previous edition of this report. Therefore, it was reported in error that Regal Beloit held a 5.5% world share in 2012. Regal Beloit’s 2012 world share has been adjusted downward to 3.0% and remains unchanged at 3.0% for base year 2013 in the 2014 edition of this report. French supplier Leroy Somer, heavily concentrated in the EMEA market, held the fifth share position in 2013 at 2.5%, down 0.5% from 2012. The manufacturer also holds a 1.0% share in the Asia Pacific region. Taiwan-based TECO Electric & Machinery/TECO-Westinghouse held the sixth share position at 2.0% with the majority of its LV motor revenues being generated in the Asia Pacific and NAm markets. CORRECTION: TECO Electric & Machinery/TECO-Westinghouse’s motor revenues were overstated by IHS in the Americas for the base year 2012 in the previous edition of this report. Therefore, it was reported in error that TECO Electric & Machinery/ TECO-Westinghouse held a 3.0% world share in 2012. TECO Electric & Machinery/TECO-Westinghouse’s 2012 world share has been adjusted downward to 2.5% and estimated at 3.0% for base year 2013 in the 2014 edition of this report. Toshiba International Corporation held the seventh share position in the world in 2013 at 2.0%.

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CORRECTION: Toshiba International Corporation’s motor revenues were under estimated by IHS in the Asia Pacific for the base year 2012 in the previous edition of this report. Therefore, it was reported in error that Toshiba International Corporation was not significantly ranked in world share in 2012. Toshiba International Corporation’s 2012 world share has been adjusted upward to 1.5% and estimated at 2.0% for base year 2013 in the 2014 edition of this report. The remaining 60% share of the world market for LV motors is held by thousands of smaller motor manufacturers from all three regions.

2.6 Low-voltage motor market structure This section discusses the competitive environment in the global LV motor market. Mergers and acquisitions that occurred in 2010 through 2013 will also be discussed. To be considered a first tier global supplier of LV motors, a manufacturer must generate significant LV motor revenues in all three geographical regions. Such manufacturers include ABB, Siemens, Regal Beloit, Leroy Somer, Hyundai Heavy Industries, and WEG. These manufacturers offer extensive LV motor product lines supported by an array of other industrial automation products, such as VFDs and programmable logic controllers (PLCs). The larger manufacturers are more diversified in their product offerings and industry sector exposure, and typically have large cash reserves that are used for product development and merger and acquisition activities. These companies tend to go after large scale projects that often use vast quantities of LV motors. However, there are many more companies that focus on specific industries, applications, or regional motor markets. The remainder of the market comprises large and medium sized manufacturers that have a strong regional presence, and small local manufacturers. Manufacturers in this grouping focus on specific industries, countries or applications with their LV motor product lines. Each supplier type approaches the market differently and employs various strategies for research and development, marketing and manufacturing. There are also significant differences in the sales channels that these various suppliers use to get their products into the LV marketplace.

2.6.1 Recent motor market mergers & acquisitions The most significant mergers and acquisitions witnessed by the LV motor market in recent years occurred during the second half of 2010. As was mentioned earlier in this chapter, VFD and engineering firms were also acquisition targets during 2011. Therefore, also listed are notable acquisitions of engineering firms by major LV motor manufacturers. In August 2013, asset manager The Carlyle Group acquired Italian LV motor and LV generator manufacturer Marelli Motori for €212 million ($272 US dollars). In November 2013, Regal Beloit Corporation acquired Italian hazardous area LV motor manufacturer CEMP with revenues of approximately $35 million, for an undisclosed amount. In one of the largest acquisitions in the history of the motor market, ABB purchased Baldor Electric Company in December 2010 for $4.2 billion in an all-cash transaction. The acquisition was finalized in 1Q11. This move will substantially improve ABB's access to the North American LV motor market. Simultaneously, this gives Baldor much enhanced sales channels in the EMEA and Asia Pacific markets. In October 2011, Japanese supplier of non-industrial fractional horsepower motors, Nidec, announced its purchase of the motor and appliance-controls business of US-based Emerson Motor Company (EMC). The companies did not disclose the details of the acquisition, but financial industry analysts have estimated the purchase price of EMC’s motor division to be around $800 million. The move will expand Nidec's product range to include industrial LV and medium voltage (MV) motors, as well as smaller appliance motors. In April 2011, Nidec then acquired Italian MV motor and genrator manufacturer Ansaldo Sistemi for a reported $500 million.

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Regal Beloit Corporation (RBC) made notable acquisitions in 2010. First, in April 2010, RBC acquired Australia’s CMG Engineering Group, which manufactures and distributes small motors, blower systems, and industrial metal products. RBC announced the purchase price included $75 million in cash, the assumption of about $5.5 million in net liabilities and 1,000,000 shares of Regal Beloit common stock. Already having purchased Dutchi Motors B.V. (now Marathon Electric) in 2008, RBC then purchased, in September 2010, Dutch motor supplier Rotor B.V., which produces standard and specialized motors, and which generated estimated revenues of about $25 million in 2009. In November 2010, RBC announced that it had acquired a 55% stake in Elco Group BV, which manufactures motors, fans and blowers and has manufacturing facilities in Italy, China, and Brazil. The company made its most significant acquisition in December 2010, when it announced it had entered into an agreement to acquire 100% of the stock and assets of the Electrical Products Company (EPC) from A.O. Smith Corporation, a notable US motor supplier. Under a proposed antitrust settlement, Regal Beloit will have to divest its US business for electric motors for pool and spa pumps to SNTech Inc and also sell certain assets of A.O. Smith, related to furnaces, to Revcor, Inc. The acquisition was finalized in August 2011 with the final purchase price for A.O. Smith reported to be $875 million. In November 2011, Brazil’s WEG signed an agreement with GE Energy to acquire the Electrical Machinery unit of Converteam. WEG’s acquisition of Electric Machinery follows the acquisition of Converteam by GE on September 2 nd, 2011. Revenues for Electric Machinery were estimated to be $56 million in 2011. As part of the merger review process prior to acquisition, GE agreed with the US Department of Justice to divest the Electric Machinery unit of Converteam after closure. Also in November 2011, WEG acquired Watt Drive Antriebstechnik GmbH, an Austrian company that designs and manufactures gearboxes, gear motors, VFDs, and control systems for an undisclosed amount. Watt Drive’s revenues were estimated to be around $45 million in 2011. WEG has also formed a gearbox joint venture with Brazilian company, Cestari, marking its first move into the mechanical power transmission sector. Germany’s VEM Group acquired Berlin-based VFD engineering firm transresch Antriebssysteme GmbH at the end of March 2011 in order to move closer to being a motor systems supplier. China-based Wolong acquired almost 98% of Austrian motor manufacturer ATB for a reported $138 million after ATB’s parent company, A-TEC industries got into financial difficulties. ATB owns UK’s Brook Crompton, Laurence Scott, and Morley, and Germany’s Schorch.

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Table 2.1

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Efficiency Class

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18

Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

9,714.1 39,004.7 249

11,177.3 42,344.4 264

12,481.1 45,059.9 277

13,150.6 46,897.0 280

14,156.4 48,912.7 289

15,373.8 51,071.0 301

16,969.7 53,810.4 315

18,627.5 56,621.1 329

20,719.8 59,711.6 347

23,254.6 63,154.7 368

10.2% 5.5% 4.4%

IE1 - Standard Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

7,614.0 32,496.3 234

8,042.3 34,005.2 237

8,233.8 34,335.0 240

7,580.7 33,405.0 227

6,928.3 31,217.7 222

6,518.1 29,756.1 219

6,590.5 29,636.5 222

6,614.4 29,468.4 224

6,772.4 29,441.4 230

6,581.9 27,820.5 237

-1.6% -1.7% 0.1%

IE2 - High Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

1,873.5 6,000.7 312

2,723.7 7,506.6 363

3,054.0 8,362.4 365

3,062.8 8,455.7 362

3,594.4 10,184.0 353

4,461.4 12,387.8 360

5,257.8 14,173.8 371

6,124.9 16,135.2 380

6,887.2 17,586.2 392

8,060.8 20,394.3 395

17.6% 14.6% 2.7%

IE3 - Premium Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

150.3 431.6 348

299.9 730.0 411

1,061.9 2,245.9 473

2,331.6 4,888.0 477

3,410.5 7,333.6 465

4,132.2 8,722.4 474

4,800.6 9,756.0 492

5,497.8 10,729.1 512

6,577.7 12,337.4 533

8,003.9 14,515.1 551

55.5% 47.8% 5.2%

IE4 - Super Premium Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

76.4 76.0 1,005

111.3 102.6 1,085

131.4 116.5 1,128

175.5 148.3 1,183

223.2 177.4 1,258

262.2 204.6 1,281

320.8 244.0 1,315

390.5 288.5 1,354

482.5 346.6 1,392

607.9 424.8 1,431

25.9% 21.1% 4.0%

EFFICIENCIES: Total

NON-EFFICIENCIES: Total Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

1,198.7 1,771.9 676

1,294.6 1,789.0 724

1,354.6 1,483.5 913

1,478.0 1,192.0 1,240

1,438.9 885.8 1,624

1,523.0 799.6 1,905

1,664.8 747.5 2,227

1,829.0 735.7 2,486

2,002.8 748.8 2,675

2,186.4 726.0 3,011

6.9% -9.4% 18.0%

DC Motors Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

499.4 1,568.9 318

510.7 1,569.5 325

403.6 1,225.5 329

284.9 876.0 325

170.5 552.2 309

136.7 438.6 312

112.2 352.1 319

98.8 303.3 326

94.2 282.2 334

76.7 225.4 340

-18.8% -19.4% 0.7%

Other/non-reg. Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

699.3 203.0 3,444

783.9 219.5 3,571

951.1 258.0 3,686

1,193.1 316.0 3,775

1,268.5 333.6 3,802

1,386.3 361.0 3,840

1,552.6 395.4 3,927

1,730.1 432.5 4,000

1,908.6 466.6 4,090

2,109.7 500.7 4,214

13.1% 10.5% 2.3%

Revenues ($M) 10,912.8 12,471.9 13,835.8 14,628.7 15,595.3 16,896.8 18,634.5 20,456.5 22,722.5 25,441.0 14.3% 10.9% 5.7% 6.6% 8.3% 10.3% 9.8% 11.1% 12.0% Annua l Growth

9.9%

Units (k) 40,776.6 44,133.4 46,543.4 48,089.0 49,798.5 51,870.6 54,557.8 57,356.8 60,460.4 63,880.7 8.2% 5.5% 3.3% 3.6% 4.2% 5.2% 5.1% 5.4% 5.7% Annua l Growth

5.1%

Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

66

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 2.1

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Efficiency Class - Share of Market - 2010 to 2018 100%

Other/non-reg.

90%

DC Motors

80%

IE4 - Super Premium IE3 - Premium

Revenues (%)

70%

IE2 - High 60% IE1 - Standard 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 2.2

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Efficiency Class - Market Breakdown and Growth 8,000

30%

2013 Revenues

25%

7,000

Growth 2014

20% 6,000

Growth 2015

5,000

10%

4,000

5% 0%

3,000

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

15%

-5% 2,000 -10% 1,000

-15%

0

-20% IE1

IE2

IE3

IE4


DC

Other

Jul-14 67

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 2.3

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Efficiency Class - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 50%

IE1 - Standard

IE2 - High 25%

Growth (%)

IE3 - Premium

IE4 - Super Premium

0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018 DC Motors

Other/non-reg.

-25%

Total Market

-50%

Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

68

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 2.2

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Region

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18

EMEA Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

3,793.9 11,051.4 343

4,129.6 11,594.5 356

4,499.6 12,171.2 370

4,763.0 12,636.0 377

5,007.8 13,045.2 384

5,427.5 13,578.6 400

5,969.7 14,248.2 419

6,530.7 15,008.1 435

7,379.5 15,957.9 462

8,310.4 16,918.7 491

9.1% 4.8% 4.1%

Americas Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

2,904.9 9,286.2 313

3,554.9 9,843.9 361

4,051.1 10,317.5 393

4,623.5 11,031.7 419

5,047.4 11,451.0 441

5,579.2 12,052.2 463

6,231.1 12,783.9 487

6,963.9 13,532.3 515

7,676.8 14,296.6 537

8,452.6 15,084.1 560

12.6% 5.5% 6.7%

Asia Pacific Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

4,214.0 20,439.0 206

4,787.4 22,695.0 211

5,285.1 24,054.7 220

5,242.1 24,421.3 215

5,540.2 25,302.3 219

5,890.1 26,239.8 224

6,433.7 27,525.7 234

6,962.0 28,816.4 242

7,666.2 30,206.0 254

8,678.1 31,877.9 272

8.4% 5.1% 3.1%


9.9%


5.1%

Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

69

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 2.4

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Region - Market Breakdown and Growth 6,000

15%

2013 Revenues Growth 2014 Growth 2015

5,000

3,000

10%

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

4,000

2,000

1,000

0

5%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 2.5

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Region - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 25% EMEA 20%

Growth (%)

15%

Americas

10% Asia Pacific

5%

0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Total Market

-5%


Jul-14 70

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 2.3a

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Application

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18

Compressors Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

2,887.5 11,059.7 261

3,309.0 12,086.4 274

3,692.7 12,738.5 290

3,891.9 13,210.7 295

4,185.3 13,763.0 304

4,583.7 14,459.7 317

5,103.5 15,298.8 334

5,611.6 16,169.9 347

6,146.9 16,862.3 365

6,839.4 17,775.8 385

10.1% 5.4% 4.4%

Conveyors Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

227.4 512.2 444

269.1 567.9 474

313.6 632.0 496

352.8 666.9 529

369.5 677.7 545

386.2 689.6 560

408.8 704.2 581

440.1 728.2 604

474.5 751.0 632

514.1 777.8 661

9.5% 4.8% 4.5%

Cranes & Hoists Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

122.2 186.2 657

146.0 200.3 729

155.3 201.4 771

158.7 202.8 782

156.5 197.1 794

166.4 203.2 819

183.4 214.7 854

195.3 221.0 884

213.0 231.1 921

230.6 238.6 966

7.3% 2.8% 4.4%

Crushers Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

85.1 123.4 690

99.3 131.2 757

114.8 141.3 813

120.1 139.0 864

122.5 136.1 900

128.2 139.6 918

136.4 145.0 941

146.2 153.2 954

166.4 170.1 978

182.5 173.8 1,050

8.8% 3.9% 4.8%

Elevators & Escalators Revenues ($M) 294.9 Units (k) 799.7 ASP ($) 369

355.0 848.2 419

406.1 912.2 445

437.8 937.5 467

457.6 948.9 482

490.0 982.0 499

533.7 1,026.1 520

572.8 1,060.1 540

626.7 1,112.2 564

696.5 1,171.1 595

10.0% 4.3% 5.5%

Extruders Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

195.1 364.8 535

223.2 391.9 570

249.5 422.2 591

249.6 411.9 606

260.0 415.2 626

290.7 452.3 643

335.2 499.7 671

378.3 538.1 703

439.9 596.5 737

508.2 662.5 767

11.2% 6.9% 4.1%

Fans Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

2,959.9 12,870.0 230

3,334.9 13,840.9 241

3,658.0 14,424.3 254

3,866.7 14,930.4 259

4,161.4 15,563.2 267

4,540.5 16,250.4 279

5,003.4 17,131.8 292

5,505.7 18,065.8 305

6,208.2 19,218.7 323

7,018.3 20,382.5 344

10.1% 5.2% 4.6%

Roller Tables Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

236.0 309.0 764

267.0 331.7 805

290.3 350.4 829

293.0 344.6 850

300.1 350.1 857

319.0 366.0 872

375.1 418.1 897

444.7 485.3 917

532.1 559.2 952

601.8 594.1 1,013

11.0% 7.5% 3.2%

Printing Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

23.1 53.2 435

27.1 56.8 477

28.4 57.5 493

27.9 57.0 490

26.7 56.7 471

27.3 56.8 480

27.5 56.0 491

27.0 54.1 499

25.6 49.4 519

23.4 42.6 549

0.1% -2.4% 2.6%

Pumps Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

2,773.0 9,578.7 289

3,143.3 10,438.9 301

3,524.2 11,287.9 312

3,774.8 11,762.0 321

4,048.3 12,141.2 333

4,379.0 12,607.4 347

4,826.8 13,240.1 365

5,319.4 13,880.5 383

5,934.2 14,700.9 404

6,694.1 15,622.6 428

10.3% 5.6% 4.5%

Continued on the next page

Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

71

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 2.3b

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Application

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18

Propulsion Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

67.0 121.0 554

77.0 126.7 608

86.1 134.2 641

80.8 144.8 558

75.1 141.3 531

77.2 141.1 548

82.8 145.0 571

87.7 149.6 587

90.8 148.4 612

95.0 146.7 647

3.9% 2.2% 1.7%

Winches Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

38.3 105.3 364

44.0 113.2 389

46.7 123.0 380

46.7 124.1 376

48.2 124.8 386

50.9 128.8 395

54.4 133.8 407

59.4 143.2 415

65.2 153.0 426

74.0 164.3 450

7.6% 5.1% 2.4%

Winders Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

32.1 84.1 381

37.7 93.3 404

39.7 95.7 415

41.1 83.6 492

41.8 86.0 486

44.6 89.7 497

48.8 95.2 513

53.3 101.5 525

59.9 111.7 537

70.4 125.4 561

9.1% 4.5% 4.4%

Other Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

971.1 4,609.4 211

1,139.3 4,906.0 232

1,230.3 5,022.8 245

1,286.7 5,073.7 254

1,342.5 5,197.1 258

1,413.2 5,304.0 266

1,514.6 5,449.2 278

1,615.0 5,606.5 288

1,739.1 5,795.8 300

1,892.9 6,002.9 315

7.7% 3.0% 4.6%


9.9%


5.1%

Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

72

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 2.6

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Application - Market Breakdown and Growth 5,000

2013 Revenues

20%

4,500 Growth 2014

4,000 15%

Growth 2015

3,000 2,500

10%

2,000

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

3,500

1,500 5% 1,000 500 0

0%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 2.7

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Application - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 25% Compressors

Conveyors

20%

Growth (%)

Crushers 15% Elev & Esc 10%

Fans

Pumps 5%

Total Market 0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


2016

2017

2018

Jul-14 73

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 2.4

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Discrete, Process & Other Manufacturing Sectors

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18

Discrete Sector Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

7,119.1 29,723.2 240

8,168.8 32,409.3 252

9,183.5 34,315.8 268

9,730.6 35,537.2 274

10,463.7 36,894.6 284

11,362.6 38,492.0 295

12,572.0 40,590.9 310

13,734.4 42,689.9 322

15,268.1 44,944.9 340

17,080.8 47,393.1 360

10.2% 5.3% 4.6%

Process Sector Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

3,135.7 8,389.7 374

3,570.2 8,885.5 402

3,879.7 9,283.0 418

4,093.6 9,563.9 428

4,296.5 9,792.6 439

4,630.3 10,121.8 457

5,079.2 10,562.9 481

5,649.8 11,095.2 509

6,274.3 11,750.2 534

7,059.0 12,515.1 564

9.4% 4.5% 4.7%

Other Sector Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

657.9 2,663.7 247

732.9 2,838.6 258

772.5 2,944.6 262

804.5 2,988.0 269

835.1 3,111.3 268

903.9 3,256.8 278

983.2 3,404.1 289

1,072.3 3,571.7 300

1,180.1 3,765.3 313

1,301.2 3,972.6 328

7.9% 4.5% 3.2%


9.9%


5.1%

Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

74

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 2.5a

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Discrete Sector

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18

350.2 888.6 394

381.7 944.9 404

398.3 960.0 415

366.7 912.6 402

388.9 944.7 412

429.2 984.1 436

493.1 1,077.0 458

547.3 1,151.4 475

620.6 1,224.6 507

718.0 1,334.5 538

8.3% 4.6% 3.5%

Commercial HVAC Revenues ($M) 2,731.2 Units (k) 14,681.0 ASP ($) 186

3,158.1 16,428.9 192

3,624.8 17,303.8 209

3,862.8 18,063.6 214

4,237.2 18,881.4 224

4,595.8 19,603.7 234

5,056.2 20,566.6 246

5,506.5 21,512.4 256

6,057.9 22,538.5 269

6,750.7 23,726.3 285

10.6% 5.5% 4.8%

Automotive Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)


227.4 512.2 444

269.1 567.9 474

313.6 632.0 496

352.8 666.9 529

369.5 677.7 545

386.2 689.6 560

408.8 704.2 581

440.1 728.2 604

474.5 751.0 632

514.1 777.8 661

9.5% 4.8% 4.5%


122.2 186.2 657

146.0 200.3 729

155.3 201.4 771

158.7 202.8 782

156.5 197.1 794

166.4 203.2 819

183.4 214.7 854

195.3 221.0 884

213.0 231.1 921

230.6 238.6 966

7.3% 2.8% 4.4%


355.0 848.2 419

406.1 912.2 445

437.8 937.5 467

457.6 948.9 482

490.0 982.0 499

533.7 1,026.1 520

572.8 1,060.1 540

626.7 1,112.2 564

696.5 1,171.1 595

10.0% 4.3% 5.5%

Food, Bev. & Tobacco (DS) Revenues ($M) 1,137.7 Units (k) 4,885.7 ASP ($) 233

1,259.9 5,056.1 249

1,390.3 5,333.2 261

1,518.5 5,615.2 270

1,633.2 5,758.9 284

1,812.5 6,091.9 298

2,067.6 6,527.7 317

2,306.1 7,008.2 329

2,646.2 7,556.7 350

3,005.9 8,085.9 372

11.4% 5.8% 5.3%

Machine Tools Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

202.9 514.2 395

235.4 547.9 430

254.2 576.9 441

259.6 584.2 444

286.6 627.1 457

320.3 669.3 479

361.4 717.8 504

404.7 774.3 523

448.5 812.3 552

506.1 866.3 584

10.7% 6.0% 4.5%

Mining (DS) Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

471.6 911.5 517

542.0 986.0 550

637.7 1,088.4 586

725.0 1,190.4 609

725.9 1,203.3 603

759.9 1,202.2 632

828.6 1,235.8 671

894.7 1,280.5 699

999.1 1,349.0 741

1,121.1 1,435.1 781

10.1% 5.2% 4.7%

Packaging & Labeling Revenues ($M) 265.9 Units (k) 1,178.8 ASP ($) 226

307.3 1,262.1 243

337.8 1,339.0 252

357.5 1,374.4 260

392.2 1,424.2 275

446.0 1,575.4 283

503.0 1,695.5 297

559.4 1,802.5 310

634.0 1,901.0 333

721.8 1,969.2 367

11.7% 5.9% 5.5%

Paper & Paperboard Revenues ($M) 390.0 Units (k) 1,619.5 ASP ($) 241

436.7 1,723.4 253

476.5 1,801.4 265

498.0 1,845.1 270

542.9 1,929.0 281

603.2 2,042.5 295

670.2 2,144.4 313

732.1 2,221.5 330

818.9 2,340.5 350

926.1 2,474.8 374

10.1% 4.8% 5.0%


23.1 53.2 435

27.1 56.8 477

28.4 57.5 493

27.9 57.0 490

26.7 56.7 471

27.3 56.8 480

27.5 56.0 491

27.0 54.1 499

25.6 49.4 519

23.4 42.6 549

0.1% -2.4% 2.6%

Refrigeration Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

64.3 83.6 769

80.3 102.5 783

90.0 111.2 810

94.7 112.8 840

99.2 116.6 851

103.0 115.6 891

108.6 116.2 934

115.3 119.4 965

125.8 125.1 1,006

137.4 129.4 1,062

8.8% 5.0% 3.7%



Jul-14 75

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 2.5b

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Discrete Sector

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18

9.3 28.7 324

11.2 32.0 350

14.2 38.8 365

15.6 40.8 383

15.8 40.4 392

16.6 40.6 409

18.3 43.1 423

18.9 43.2 437

19.4 42.1 459

21.2 42.5 499

9.6% 4.5% 4.9%

Rubber & Plastics (DS) Revenues ($M) 102.7 Units (k) 412.5 ASP ($) 249

123.5 453.1 273

149.5 521.5 287

161.5 548.8 294

176.7 570.5 310

182.7 579.2 315

208.5 660.7 316

211.3 656.6 322

232.4 679.3 342

245.8 654.7 375

10.2% 5.3% 4.7%

Semiconductor Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

34.1 122.0 280

39.8 128.6 309

46.6 148.7 313

48.8 151.6 322

53.3 160.7 331

57.2 164.8 347

64.1 175.2 366

68.6 184.9 371

74.7 188.6 396

79.4 184.8 429

9.8% 4.7% 4.9%

Shipbuilding & Marine Revenues ($M) 225.0 Units (k) 842.5 ASP ($) 267

260.2 896.0 290

271.2 913.0 297

239.3 866.5 276

247.8 872.9 284

255.9 883.4 290

266.1 897.2 297

292.8 957.4 306

332.9 1,022.9 325

381.8 1,115.4 342

6.1% 3.2% 2.8%

Robotics Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

Textiles Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

215.9 1,002.9 215

250.6 1,083.7 231

290.0 1,276.0 227

303.5 1,298.6 234

330.2 1,366.6 242

357.7 1,411.1 254

390.1 1,460.8 267

427.0 1,547.9 276

463.6 1,579.7 293

509.2 1,632.4 312

10.0% 5.6% 4.2%

Woodworking Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

76.7 279.9 274

87.7 307.4 285

95.8 332.4 288

89.4 317.6 282

98.9 336.4 294

104.9 339.0 309

113.7 345.1 330

122.0 350.0 349

132.4 354.4 374

157.5 393.7 400

8.3% 3.9% 4.3%

Other Discrete Sectors Revenues ($M) 174.1 Units (k) 720.6 ASP ($) 242

197.0 783.4 252

203.3 768.5 265

212.3 750.9 283

224.4 781.6 287

247.7 824.8 300

268.9 854.1 315

292.6 895.9 327

321.9 929.0 347

334.4 921.4 363

7.5% 2.8% 4.6%

8,168.8 14.7%

9,183.5 12.4%

9,730.6 10,463.7 11,362.6 12,572.0 13,734.4 15,268.1 17,080.8 6.0% 7.5% 8.6% 10.6% 9.2% 11.2% 11.9%

10.2%


5.3%

Revenues ($M) Annua l Growth

7,119.1

Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

76

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 2.8

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Discrete Sector - Market Breakdown and Growth 5,000

15%

2013 Revenues

Growth 2014

4,000

Growth 2015

3,000

2,000 5%

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

10%

1,000

0

0%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 2.9

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Discrete Sector - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 25%

Commercial HVAC

Growth (%)

20%

Conveyors

15%


10%

Food, Bev. & Tobacco (DS) Machine Tools

5%

Mining (DS) 0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018 Total Market

-5%


Jul-14 77

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 2.6

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Process Sector

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18

206.3 747.3 276

251.0 779.7 322

272.7 804.8 339

299.8 857.9 349

328.3 893.3 367

355.7 938.9 379

388.2 987.1 393

431.0 1,043.6 413

473.1 1,113.5 425

531.5 1,200.1 443

11.1% 5.4% 5.4%

Food, Bev. & Tobacco (PS) Revenues ($M) 337.2 Units (k) 1,411.3 ASP ($) 239

371.1 1,458.0 255

419.6 1,535.9 273

450.8 1,567.2 288

493.0 1,633.6 302

538.5 1,710.7 315

602.2 1,822.9 330

668.5 1,910.8 350

735.4 2,008.2 366

828.9 2,149.4 386

10.5% 4.8% 5.5%

Chemicals Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

Metal Processing Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

248.5 608.8 408

269.7 614.0 439

283.9 617.4 460

284.0 610.2 465

300.3 631.6 475

326.5 672.2 486

343.7 681.1 505

376.4 736.2 511

411.3 778.6 528

465.4 834.0 558

7.2% 3.6% 3.5%

Mining (PS) Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

209.0 344.6 606

248.6 374.9 663

305.7 434.0 705

380.8 498.3 764

358.0 469.1 763

352.8 445.0 793

371.4 447.8 829

405.4 461.7 878

446.9 487.7 916

486.8 509.9 955

9.9% 4.5% 5.2%

Oil & Gas Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

508.6 852.4 597

560.3 892.9 627

596.9 950.9 628

630.0 997.1 632

664.8 1,008.8 659

733.4 1,060.3 692

835.4 1,139.1 733

951.5 1,210.5 786

1,093.0 1,317.5 830

1,236.1 1,413.6 874

10.4% 5.8% 4.3%

Pharmaceuticals Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

206.3 539.0 383

228.7 554.8 412

245.2 573.3 428

253.1 576.0 439

262.2 583.2 450

287.8 617.1 466

318.5 659.9 483

344.8 692.6 498

383.2 745.2 514

417.8 777.8 537

8.2% 4.2% 3.8%

Power Gen-Nuc. & Fossil Revenues ($M) 472.8 Units (k) 844.5 ASP ($) 560

537.0 912.6 588

554.6 932.9 595

554.0 945.0 586

578.0 954.7 605

643.2 1,008.9 638

731.5 1,083.0 675

833.7 1,157.4 720

933.6 1,237.1 755

1,084.3 1,361.6 796

9.7% 5.4% 4.0%

Power Gen-Ren. Energy Revenues ($M) 104.6 Units (k) 101.4 ASP ($) 1,031

128.2 120.4 1,065

145.5 131.1 1,110

149.3 136.5 1,094

153.2 133.3 1,149

163.7 132.2 1,238

173.6 131.1 1,325

188.8 133.7 1,412

202.9 138.4 1,466

235.5 147.7 1,594

9.4% 4.3% 5.0%

Rubber & Plastics (PS) Revenues ($M) 109.1 Units (k) 328.0 ASP ($) 333

121.4 327.1 371

135.6 349.0 389

143.3 359.3 399

150.9 371.1 407

160.4 383.1 419

173.0 398.3 434

190.6 420.6 453

212.7 453.6 469

249.8 495.0 505

9.6% 4.7% 4.7%

Water & Wastewater Revenues ($M) 563.1 Units (k) 1,736.9 ASP ($) 324

644.0 1,840.0 350

692.3 1,902.2 364

712.5 1,921.7 371

751.7 1,984.9 379

813.6 2,053.2 396

886.8 2,133.4 416

998.3 2,254.7 443

1,112.9 2,393.7 465

1,242.0 2,534.8 490

9.2% 4.3% 4.7%

Other Process Sectors Revenues ($M) 170.1 Units (k) 875.5 ASP ($) 194

210.1 1,010.9 208

227.7 1,051.6 217

236.0 1,094.6 216

256.1 1,129.0 227

254.7 1,100.0 231

255.0 1,079.1 236

260.8 1,073.3 243

269.4 1,076.7 250

281.0 1,091.2 258

5.7% 2.5% 3.2%


3,135.7

3,570.2 13.9%

3,879.7 8.7%

4,093.6 5.5%

4,296.5 5.0%

4,630.3 7.8%

5,079.2 9.7%

5,649.8 11.2%

6,274.3 11.1%

7,059.0 12.5%

9.4%

Units (k) Annua l Growth

8,389.7

8,885.5 5.9%

9,283.0 4.5%

9,563.9 3.0%

9,792.6 2.4%

10,121.8 3.4%

10,562.9 4.4%

11,095.2 5.0%

11,750.2 5.9%

12,515.1 6.5%

4.5%


Jul-14 78

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 2.10

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Process Sector - Market Breakdown and Growth 800

20%

2013 Revenues

700 Growth 2014

15%

500

Growth 2015

10%

400

5%

300

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

600

200 0% 100 0

-5%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 2.11

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Process Sector - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 25%

Chemicals

20% Food, Bev. & Tobacco (PS)

Growth (%)

15% Mining (PS)

10% Pharmaceuticals 5%

Rubber & Plastics (PS) 0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Total Market

-5%


Jul-14 79

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 2.7

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Other Sector

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18

Building Automation Revenues ($M) 129.0 Units (k) 602.3 ASP ($) 214

143.9 663.5 217

149.3 714.5 209

155.8 735.4 212

162.0 787.9 206

173.7 824.0 211

189.7 873.6 217

209.5 932.1 225

228.1 975.8 234

249.9 1,017.3 246

7.6% 6.0% 1.5%

Infrastructure Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

298.8 913.9 327

336.3 1,001.2 336

368.0 1,105.2 333

390.3 1,111.0 351

409.8 1,158.7 354

453.8 1,254.7 362

501.4 1,337.7 375

554.4 1,424.0 389

624.1 1,550.4 403

700.9 1,683.9 416

9.9% 7.0% 2.7%

Others Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

230.1 1,147.6 200

252.7 1,173.9 215

255.3 1,124.9 227

258.4 1,141.6 226

263.3 1,164.8 226

276.4 1,178.2 235

292.0 1,192.8 245

308.4 1,215.6 254

327.9 1,239.1 265

350.4 1,271.4 276

4.8% 1.1% 3.6%


657.9

732.9 11.4%

772.5 5.4%

804.5 4.1%

835.1 3.8%

903.9 8.2%

983.2 8.8%

1,072.3 9.1%

1,180.1 10.1%

1,301.2 10.3%

7.9%


2,663.7

2,838.6 6.6%

2,944.6 3.7%

2,988.0 1.5%

3,111.3 4.1%

3,256.8 4.7%

3,404.1 4.5%

3,571.7 4.9%

3,765.3 5.4%

3,972.6 5.5%

4.5%

Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

80

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 2.12

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Other Sector - Market Breakdown and Growth 450

12%

2013 Revenues

400 350

Growth 2014

10%

Growth 2015

250 8% 200

150

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

300

6%

100

50 0

4%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 2.13

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Other Sector - Market Breakdown and Growth 15%

Building Automation

10%

Growth (%)

Infrastructure

Others 5%

Total Market

0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


2016

2017

2018

Jul-14 81

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 2.8

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By IEC v. NEMA

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18

IEC Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

8,497.7 34,023.9 250

9,550.0 36,932.8 259

10,530.2 38,990.5 270

10,873.2 39,926.5 272

11,561.1 41,341.1 280

12,430.3 42,957.6 289

13,638.4 45,087.4 302

14,839.6 47,318.8 314

16,519.0 49,834.1 331

18,600.6 52,648.4 353

9.1% 5.0% 3.9%

NEMA Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

2,415.1 6,752.8 358

2,921.9 7,200.6 406

3,305.6 7,552.9 438

3,755.5 8,162.6 460

4,034.2 8,457.4 477

4,466.5 8,912.9 501

4,996.1 9,470.4 528

5,616.9 10,038.0 560

6,203.5 10,626.4 584

6,840.4 11,232.3 609

12.3% 5.8% 6.1%


9.9%


5.1%

Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

82

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 2.9

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By IEC Frame Size

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18

80-100 Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

1,225.5 18,034.0 68

1,421.6 19,308.5 74

1,615.9 20,593.0 78

1,765.7 21,377.7 83

1,985.4 22,365.9 89

2,123.2 23,364.2 91

2,305.7 24,640.3 94

2,488.0 26,061.1 95

2,682.9 27,130.8 99

2,929.2 28,293.8 104

10.2% 5.1% 4.8%


1,711.4 10,962.3 156

1,950.3 11,935.9 163

2,179.8 12,418.7 176

2,255.6 12,847.6 176

2,407.8 13,035.8 185

2,637.7 13,524.2 195

2,888.0 14,143.2 204

3,117.8 14,754.7 211

3,490.5 15,727.7 222

3,940.4 16,813.8 234

9.7% 4.9% 4.6%


2,460.4 4,051.8 607

2,798.7 4,648.2 602

3,147.8 4,912.5 641

3,280.1 4,643.6 706

3,540.3 4,879.3 726

3,765.4 4,958.3 759

4,130.6 5,115.9 807

4,445.5 5,222.5 851

4,945.8 5,596.8 884

5,660.4 6,049.7 936

9.7% 4.6% 4.9%


2,294.3 924.4 2,482

2,431.2 982.8 2,474

2,613.9 1,008.1 2,593

2,628.4 1,000.6 2,627

2,675.0 1,003.3 2,666

2,881.4 1,051.8 2,740

3,201.4 1,125.6 2,844

3,557.0 1,212.4 2,934

4,014.5 1,304.2 3,078

4,552.7 1,413.2 3,222

7.9% 4.8% 2.9%


746.0 49.3 15,122

877.3 54.7 16,041

898.6 55.7 16,130

872.8 54.6 15,990

884.4 54.5 16,232

949.1 56.6 16,759

1,034.1 59.9 17,262

1,146.6 65.3 17,551

1,288.9 71.7 17,966

1,407.4 74.8 18,827

7.3% 4.7% 2.5%

630 & above Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

60.1 2.1 28,286

71.0 2.60 27,267

74.1 2.59 28,625

70.6 2.35 29,981

68.2 2.29 29,853

73.3 2.4 30,258

78.5 2.5 30,950

84.6 2.7 31,670

96.4 2.9 33,047

110.6 3.2 34,975

7.0% 4.5% 2.4%

8,497.7

9,550.0 10,530.2 10,873.2 11,561.1 12,430.3 13,638.4 14,839.6 16,519.0 18,600.6 12.4% 10.3% 3.3% 6.3% 7.5% 9.7% 8.8% 11.3% 12.6%

9.1%


5.0%


Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

83

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 2.14

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By IEC Frame Size - Market Breakdown and Growth 4,000

12%

2013 Revenues

3,500

Growth 2014

3,000

2,000

1,500

8%

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

Growth 2015

10%

2,500

1,000 500 0

6%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 2.15

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By IEC Frame Size - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 20%

80-100 112-132

15%

Growth (%)

160-225 250-355

10%

400-560 5% 630 & above Total Market

0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

-5%


Jul-14 84

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 2.10

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By NEMA Frame Size

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


482.1 3,021.2 160

609.7 3,433.1 178

706.8 3,544.4 199

832.9 3,943.8 211

867.5 4,037.3 215

948.8 4,226.8 224

1,051.5 4,472.0 235

1,180.9 4,742.2 249

1,271.2 4,955.7 257

1,361.0 5,168.9 263

12.2% 6.1% 5.7%


416.7 1,722.6 242

512.8 1,706.7 300

569.2 1,886.9 302

651.5 2,020.6 322

721.7 2,096.7 344

787.8 2,193.1 359

886.3 2,356.3 376

989.0 2,485.6 398

1,073.9 2,620.8 410

1,138.2 2,703.0 421

11.8% 5.1% 6.4%


408.6 1,111.1 368

492.8 1,139.6 432

547.4 1,170.1 468

618.7 1,214.2 510

680.4 1,299.3 524

762.9 1,394.9 547

844.0 1,457.6 579

942.2 1,536.3 613

1,048.2 1,658.0 632

1,181.8 1,819.7 649

12.5% 5.6% 6.5%


514.8 727.8 707

660.5 747.0 884

785.0 773.8 1,015

897.5 804.5 1,116

1,001.3 842.1 1,189

1,123.7 905.4 1,241

1,271.4 978.9 1,299

1,454.3 1,057.8 1,375

1,646.9 1,160.9 1,419

1,885.1 1,294.3 1,456

15.5% 6.6% 8.4%


575.7 169.6 3,395

623.8 173.6 3,593

669.0 176.9 3,782

724.3 178.6 4,055

732.3 181.3 4,039

809.3 191.9 4,218

905.2 204.9 4,419

1,008.4 215.2 4,685

1,118.4 230.0 4,863

1,226.5 245.4 4,998

8.8% 4.2% 4.4%


17.2 0.56 30,704

22.3 0.66 33,491

28.1 0.83 33,722

30.6 0.88 34,707

31.0 0.80 38,894

34.0 0.84 40,645

37.6 0.88 42,596

42.1 0.93 45,151

44.9 0.96 46,963

47.7 0.99 48,278

12.0% 6.5% 5.2%


2,415.1

2,921.9 21.0%

3,305.6 13.1%

3,755.5 13.6%

4,034.2 7.4%

4,466.5 10.7%

4,996.1 11.9%

5,616.9 12.4%

6,203.5 10.4%

6,840.4 10.3%

12.3%


6,752.8

7,200.6 6.6%

7,552.9 4.9%

8,162.6 8.1%

8,457.4 3.6%

8,912.9 5.4%

9,470.4 10,038.0 10,626.4 11,232.3 6.3% 6.0% 5.9% 5.7%

5.8%

Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

85

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 2.16

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By NEMA Frame Size - Market Breakdown and Growth 1,200

14%

2013 Revenues

1,000

Growth 2014 12%

600

400

10%

Growth 2015

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

800

200

0

8%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 2.17

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By NEMA Frame Size - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 30%

56-145 25%

182-184

Growth (%)

20%

213-215

15%

254-326

10%

364-449

5%

5000 & above

0%

Total Market

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


2016

2017

2018

Jul-14 86

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 2.11

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Sales Channel

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18

DIRECT SALES: Total Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

9,100.5 34,960.4 260

10,374.0 37,801.1 274

11,562.9 40,095.8 288

12,312.5 41,665.8 296

13,181.9 43,141.1 306

14,269.4 44,897.3 318

15,717.5 47,135.4 333

17,264.8 49,498.1 349

19,167.3 52,106.7 368

21,467.6 55,012.5 390

10.0% 5.2% 4.6%

End-user Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

1,470.7 3,583.7 410

1,650.2 3,847.9 429

1,783.1 3,956.4 451

1,843.0 4,001.9 461

1,949.0 4,236.4 460

2,083.8 4,392.0 474

2,293.1 4,619.6 496

2,486.4 4,852.5 512

2,750.3 5,129.9 536

3,096.7 5,444.6 569

8.6% 4.8% 3.7%

OEM Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

7,629.8 31,376.7 243

8,723.8 33,953.2 257

9,779.9 36,139.4 271

10,469.5 37,663.9 278

11,233.0 38,904.7 289

12,185.6 40,505.3 301

13,424.4 42,515.8 316

14,778.5 44,645.6 331

16,417.0 46,976.8 349

18,370.9 49,567.9 371

10.3% 5.2% 4.8%

289.3 889.5 325

346.6 982.0 353

388.0 1,013.5 383

393.9 1,010.9 390

408.7 1,053.2 388

436.0 1,078.5 404

477.0 1,126.2 424

526.0 1,189.0 442

593.6 1,280.9 463

675.8 1,392.8 485

9.9% 5.1% 4.5%

System Integrator Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

DISTRIBUTION SALES: Total Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

1,407.2 4,672.1 301

1,620.5 5,082.1 319

1,741.7 5,159.4 338

1,781.8 5,146.2 346

1,861.9 5,332.7 349

2,030.6 5,607.7 362

2,257.3 5,989.7 377

2,460.2 6,335.0 388

2,736.1 6,726.8 407

3,043.4 7,107.1 428

8.9% 4.8% 4.0%


896.6 2,821.5 318

1,038.7 3,031.0 343

1,112.2 3,070.9 362

1,129.9 3,045.3 371

1,194.7 3,160.1 378

1,301.1 3,306.3 394

1,428.9 3,501.4 408

1,552.6 3,694.3 420

1,713.4 3,921.0 437

1,894.7 4,158.6 456

8.7% 4.4% 4.1%


510.6 1,850.6 276

581.8 2,051.2 284

629.6 2,088.6 301

651.9 2,100.9 310

667.1 2,172.6 307

729.5 2,301.5 317

828.4 2,488.3 333

907.6 2,640.7 344

1,022.7 2,805.8 364

1,148.7 2,948.5 390

9.4% 5.3% 3.9%

115.7 254.6 455

130.8 268.2 488

143.0 274.7 521

140.4 266.2 528

142.8 271.6 526

160.8 287.1 560

182.7 306.6 596

205.5 334.6 614

225.6 345.9 652

254.2 368.3 690

9.1% 4.2% 4.8%

Revenues ($M) 10,912.8 Annua l Growth

12,471.9 14.3%

13,835.8 10.9%

14,628.7 5.7%

15,595.3 6.6%

16,896.8 8.3%

18,634.5 10.3%

20,456.5 9.8%

22,722.5 11.1%

25,441.0 12.0%

9.9%

Units (k) 40,776.6 Annua l Growth

44,133.4 8.2%

46,543.4 5.5%

48,089.0 3.3%

49,798.5 3.6%

51,870.6 4.2%

54,557.8 5.2%

57,356.8 5.1%

60,460.4 5.4%

63,880.7 5.7%

5.1%


Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

87

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 2.18

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Sales Channel - Market Breakdown and Growth 12,000

14%

2013 Revenues Growth 2014

10,000

Growth 2015

8,000

6,000

10%

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

12%

4,000 8% 2,000

0

6%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 2.19

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Sales Channel - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 20%

Direct to Enduser Direct to OEM

Growth (%)

15%

Direct to Sys Int

10%

Dist. to Enduser

5%

Dist. to OEM

Dist. to Sys Int 0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018 Total Market

-5%


Jul-14 88

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 2.12

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Power Rating

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18

0.75-1.5kW (1-2HP) Revenues ($M) 3,061.0 Units (k) 23,503.4 ASP ($) 130

3,565.2 25,583.1 139

3,981.0 27,309.6 146

4,233.1 28,165.4 150

4,567.8 29,085.6 157

4,900.8 30,198.7 162

5,343.0 31,557.4 169

5,817.3 33,017.1 176

6,467.8 34,835.5 186

7,285.8 36,988.3 197

10.1% 5.2% 4.7%


3,145.7 13,600.7 231

3,401.0 14,104.6 241

3,556.4 14,724.0 242

3,803.3 15,265.7 249

4,186.9 15,977.6 262

4,740.5 17,030.2 278

5,326.9 18,081.9 295

5,974.4 19,063.6 313

6,670.8 20,032.0 333

10.3% 5.3% 4.7%

5.62-7.5kW (7.5-10HP) Revenues ($M) 2,179.0 Units (k) 3,649.3 ASP ($) 597

2,529.0 3,881.8 652

2,918.0 4,001.8 729

3,137.8 4,045.7 776

3,338.0 4,239.3 787

3,662.9 4,441.6 825

4,056.7 4,657.7 871

4,430.0 4,877.8 908

4,934.7 5,122.7 963

5,511.9 5,350.0 1,030

10.9% 4.3% 6.2%

11.25-37.5kW (15-50HP) Revenues ($M) 1,413.6 Units (k) 856.0 ASP ($) 1,651

1,555.8 900.2 1,728

1,704.4 950.7 1,793

1,828.4 976.7 1,872

1,930.9 1,024.2 1,885

2,089.5 1,063.3 1,965

2,291.7 1,114.9 2,055

2,488.4 1,170.8 2,125

2,730.0 1,223.5 2,231

3,059.1 1,287.5 2,376

9.0% 4.6% 4.1%

45-112.5kW (60-150HP) Revenues ($M) 580.4 Units (k) 113.4 ASP ($) 5,120

641.2 121.8 5,264

687.9 127.5 5,396

722.6 129.6 5,576

769.4 135.5 5,676

833.2 141.3 5,896

913.4 148.8 6,137

1,011.7 158.7 6,374

1,097.8 162.4 6,760

1,186.8 166.3 7,136

8.3% 4.4% 3.8%

150-375kW (200-500HP) Revenues ($M) 673.1 Units (k) 36.0 ASP ($) 18,683

761.1 39.0 19,517

837.9 41.8 20,063

843.6 40.8 20,695

881.1 41.3 21,341

915.0 41.5 22,043

971.8 42.2 23,046

1,034.9 43.5 23,785

1,132.7 45.4 24,940

1,280.2 48.5 26,376

7.4% 3.4% 3.9%

376kW & above (>500HP) Revenues ($M) 238.8 Units (k) 6.2 ASP ($) 38,828

273.9 6.8 40,274

305.6 7.4 41,479

306.7 6.9 44,330

304.9 6.8 44,608

308.5 6.6 46,708

317.3 6.6 48,287

347.3 6.9 50,369

385.3 7.3 52,807

446.4 8.0 55,505

7.2% 3.0% 4.1%


9.9%


5.1%

Source: IHS

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Figure 2.20

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Power Rating - Market Breakdown and Growth 5,000

2013 Revenues

15%

Growth 2014

4,000

Growth 2015

3,000

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

10%

2,000 5% 1,000

0

0%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 2.21

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Power Rating - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 0.75-1.5kW (1-2HP)

18% 16%

2.25-3.75kW (3-5HP)

14%

5.62-7.5kW (7.5-10HP)

Growth (%)

12%

11.25-37.5kW (15-50HP)

10% 8%

45-112.5kW (60-150HP)

6%

150-375kW (200-500HP)

4% 2% 0%

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

376kW & above (>500HP) Total Market

-2%


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Table 2.13

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Enclosure Type

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18

9,528.9 35,989.9 265

10,881.2 38,997.0 279

12,111.5 41,288.8 293

12,812.2 42,810.5 299

13,678.2 44,365.5 308

14,817.5 46,205.4 321

16,342.3 48,599.4 336

17,940.3 51,065.0 351

19,961.5 53,844.3 371

22,398.6 56,902.0 394

10.0% 5.2% 4.5%

TEFC: non-hazardous Revenues ($M) 8,799.8 Units (k) 34,296.9 ASP ($) 257

9,977.3 37,026.7 269

11,028.8 39,239.7 281

11,498.7 40,476.2 284

12,238.2 41,997.2 291

13,303.4 43,799.5 304

14,717.9 46,122.0 319

16,183.6 48,461.9 334

18,049.1 51,109.4 353

20,341.0 54,104.9 376

9.8% 5.2% 4.3%

729.1 1,693.0 431

903.9 1,970.3 459

1,082.8 2,049.2 528

1,313.5 2,334.3 563

1,440.0 2,368.2 608

1,514.1 2,405.9 629

1,624.4 2,477.4 656

1,756.6 2,603.1 675

1,912.4 2,734.8 699

2,057.6 2,797.1 736

12.2% 5.7% 6.1%

69.3 237.5 292

80.0 247.2 324

87.4 254.6 343

91.0 252.1 361

90.7 239.8 378

94.0 241.7 389

98.8 246.0 401

108.2 268.0 404

119.4 287.9 415

132.7 309.8 428

7.5% 3.0% 4.3%

TENV: non-hazardous Revenues ($M) 58.5 Units (k) 207.2 ASP ($) 283

67.7 216.2 313

72.7 221.1 329

75.8 218.5 347

74.5 205.5 363

76.9 206.7 372

80.6 209.8 384

88.6 229.7 386

98.0 247.4 396

109.8 267.7 410

7.2% 2.9% 4.2%

10.8 30.3 357

12.3 31.0 398

14.7 33.5 439

15.2 33.6 452

16.2 34.3 472

17.1 35.0 489

18.2 36.2 503

19.6 38.3 512

21.4 40.5 527

22.9 42.0 545

8.7% 3.7% 4.8%

ODP: non-hazardous Revenues ($M) 783.9 Units (k) 3,319.0 ASP ($) 236

917.4 3,592.0 255

980.0 3,642.2 269

1,053.2 3,660.0 288

1,129.8 3,786.2 298

1,243.0 3,979.9 312

1,392.1 4,222.6 330

1,562.7 4,495.3 348

1,729.0 4,753.8 364

1,920.6 5,044.4 381

10.5% 4.8% 5.4%

Other: non-hazardous Revenues ($M) 530.6 Units (k) 1,230.3 ASP ($) 431

593.3 1,297.2 457

656.8 1,357.7 484

672.2 1,366.4 492

696.6 1,407.0 495

742.3 1,443.6 514

801.3 1,489.8 538

845.3 1,528.5 553

912.7 1,574.4 580

989.2 1,624.6 609

7.2% 3.1% 3.9%

TEFC: Total Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

TEFC: hazardous Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($) TENV: Total Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

TENV: hazardous Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

Revenues ($M) 10,912.8 Annua l Growth

12,471.9 13,835.8 14,628.7 14.3% 10.9% 5.7%

15,595.3 16,896.8 18,634.5 6.6% 8.3% 10.3%

20,456.5 22,722.5 25,441.0 9.8% 11.1% 12.0%

9.9%


44,133.4 46,543.4 48,089.0 8.2% 5.5% 3.3%

49,798.5 51,870.6 54,557.8 3.6% 4.2% 5.2%

57,356.8 60,460.4 63,880.7 5.1% 5.4% 5.7%

5.1%

Source: IHS

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Figure 2.22

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Enclosure Type - Market Breakdown and Growth

Revenues ($M)

10,000

14%

2013 Revenues

12%

Growth 2014

10%

Growth 2015

8%

5,000

6%

Growth (%)

15,000

4%

0

2%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 2.23

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Enclosure Type - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 26%

TEFC: nonhazardous

Growth (%)

22%

TEFC: hazardous

18%

TENV: nonhazardous

14%

TENV: hazardous

10%

ODP: nonhazardous

6%

Other: nonhazardous

2%

Total Market

-2%

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


2016

2017

2018

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Table 2.14

The World Market for Low Voltage Motors Shares by Revenue

Company Name

2013 Share

1.

ABB

13.0%

2

Siemens

10.0%

3

WEG

7.5%

4

Regal Beloit

3.0%

5.

Leroy Somer

2.5%

6.

TECO

2.0%

7.

Toshiba

2.0%

Others

60.0%

Note 1: The market in 2013 was estimated to be worth $15,595.3 million. Note 2: Market shares were rounded to the nearest 0.5% Note 3: Regal Beloit's market share includes CEMP (Italy).

Source: IHS

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Chapter Three

The EMEA market for low-voltage motors  Low revenue growth in the region’s low-voltage motor market continues in 2013  60% revenue growth in Eurozone for IE2  Robust revenue growth for IE3 expected in 2017 & 2018  New EU MEPS regulations in 2014 intended to close regulatory loopholes

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3.0 Introduction This chapter presents and analyzes consolidated market statistics for the EMEA market for industrial low voltage integral horsepower motors with power ratings at or above 0.75kW/1HP. The statistics presented in this chapter are provide market sizes in terms of both revenues in millions of US dollars (represented as $M), and unit shipments in thousands (represented as ‘k’ units). The base year for the analyses is 2013, with forecasts from 2014 through 2018. Historical market sizes are provided for 2009 through 2012, for reference.

3.1 The EMEA market for low-voltage motors The Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) market for LV motors grew by an estimated 5.1% in terms of revenues, and was estimated to be worth $5,007.8 million in 2013 with over 13 million units shipped. The region had rebounded well from the global recession, as evident by posting 9.0% revenue growth in 2011. However, the rebound was curtailed somewhat in 2012 with the onset of economic troubles in Western Europe, which led to modest 5.9% growth in 2012. Two major events were occurring simultaneously in the European market that had, and will continue to have a major effect in the Eurozone region’s LV motor market for the short term. These two events are: 

The Eurozone‘s sovereign debt crisis, which began to escalate in late 2011 and early 2012



The transition to IE2 class LV motors in the EU states occurring in the middle of the year, at June 16th, 2011

Reported data for 2013 shows more transition progress toward IE2, with less IE1 product being sold. However, revenues from IE1 motors still garnered a significant share of the region’s market. This dynamic is taking into account that IE1 motors are still allowed to be sold into the Middle East and Africa, countries with no energy efficiency regulations. European LV motor manufacturers reported this fear to be true as LV motor sales into the Eurozone were significantly less than anticipated. Due to the economic situation, the organic demand for LV motors in 2012 was much lower than 2011, with inorganic revenue growth expected from the sale of more efficient and more expensive IE2 motors failing to materialize in a significant way. June 2013 marked the second full year of the transition to IE2 class LV motors in the EU states. It was thought that the efficiency class transition from IE1 LV motors to IE2 would ignite inorganic revenue growth on top of organic revenue growth in a region still bouncing back from the global recession. It was learned in late 2012 that the growing Eurozone crisis, on the heels of the recovery, had posed a new threat to the region’s market, and had significantly delayed the transition to IE2. Because of the lower cost, customers still ordered mostly IE1 motors beyond the official start of the transition date, forcing manufacturers to supply these motors and delaying their collective ability to transform their cost structure and manufacturing processes to produce IE2 motors. Via interviews with Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 3 manufacturers in the region, it was discovered that many IE1 were produced and stockpiled beginning in early 2011, anticipating the continued demand for IE1 motors for several years beyond the official transition starting date. This has caused a dynamic in which IE1 motors are still being legally sold into the Eurozone in 2012 and even in 2013, which has greatly slowed the transition to IE2 in this region. Most LV motor manufacturers reported that IE2 sales began to increase only modestly by the end of 2011, with IE2 class LV motor sales for the entire year of 2011 and 2012 reported to be well below expectations. The lingering effects of the global recession and the onset of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis resulted in several countries in the region facing insolvency in early 2011. The insolvency issues in Western Europe caused the EU to act swiftly with bailout measures for countries including Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland. IHS had expected the debt crisis in Western Europe to carry over into 2012 and partly into 2013 as well, and to negatively affect the LV motor market in the region.

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Concerning the rate of transition to IE2 class motors in the EU states, IHS realizes that it is difficult to assess how quickly the transition will occur, given only limited visibility into the quantity of installed base of motors that need to be replaced in any given year, regardless and independent of economic circumstances. Additionally, it is difficult to quantify with accuracy at what stage of a LV motor’s lifecycle any given motor in the installed base may be in. Considering the lifespan of a LV motor can be anywhere from three to twenty years, depending on usage factors, it is assumed that some facilities owners may have purchased IE1 class motors many years prior to any legislated transitions, and may not purchase replacement IE2 or IE3 motors during the forecast period. As the efficiency transition from IE1 to IE2 continues to occur in the Eurozone states, the inorganic revenue growth dynamic is expected to intensify in coming years. Modest growth in the region’s LV motor market is expected to return to the region in 2014 as IHS has forecast 8.4% revenue growth with a 4.1% growth in units. Organic demand for LV motors (independent of the influence of a mandated shift to more expensive LV motors) is expected to return to historical levels beginning in 2016. In 2015, a legislative shift will again play a positive role in LV motor revenue growth in the EU states, with more expensive IE3 class LV motors above 7.5kW being sold into the EU market. Low voltage motors in power ranges 7.5kW to 375kW (10HP to 504HP) are in the minority share of unit shipments in any given year and therefore will have a minimal influence on the region’s revenue growth during that year. The EU legislation includes a unique provision that is expected to significantly influence the transition to IE3 class motors. The provision is unique because it does not exist in North American energy efficiency regulations. In 2015 and 2017, the provision allows for efficiency ratings equivalent to IE3 by fitting an IE2 LV motor with a VFD. Considering that Europe has some of the highest VFD penetration rates in the world, this provision is expected to result in a sharp increase in VFD sales during the forecast period and beyond. It is expected that a significant number of European OEMs and end-users will favor purchasing less expensive IE2 class LV motors fitted with a VFD, rather than a more expensive IE3 LV motor. Fitting an IE3 LV motor with a drive does increase the efficiency of the motor substantially, however, the overall gain in efficiency in doing this is still less than the overall efficiency gains made by an IE2+VFD pairing, while still being less expensive than an IE3+VFD pairing. The added benefit of the IE2+VFD pairing being preferred over an IE3 LV motor for OEMs is that the amount of form factor redesign for a particular machine will be minimized, which saves on production costs. The European market has traditionally favored decentralized VFD system topographies, often using VFDs integrated directly onto the motor itself. In contrast, the North American market favors a centralized VFD system topography. It is important to recognize that IE1 motor sales will remain viable if not strong in the non-EU states, namely parts of Central and Eastern Europe, the Russian Federation and CIS, and the Middle East and Africa were no motor efficiency legislation exists. IHS has assumed that these regional motor markets will remain viable markets for suppliers of IE1 efficiency class motors for the foreseeable future. It is important to note that the Russian Federation and CIS uses the GOST standard. The GOST standard is based on metric IEC-centric frame sizes ranging from 63 to 315 and larger. GOST motors have shorter shaft sizes with wider and taller form factors. In order to estimate accurate revenue and units totals for the EMEA region, data for GOST-standard motors has been included in IEC frame size totals. However, the GOST standard motors are not officially regulated by the IEC standards body. GOST standard motors are typically of lower efficiency, and are equivalent to EFF3 motors that are well below current IE1 efficiency levels. It is interesting to note that enforcement of licensure exists for manufacturers of IE3/NEMA Premium LV motors to be sold into the US, as their products are subject to periodic testing in order to maintain licensure as a certified IE3/NEMA Premium motor. Currently, no such process is in place to enforce IE2 LV motor licensure in the EU states. In addition, a curious loophole in the ErP legislation exists for manufacturers. They can still produce IE1 motors to be sold into the European Union, but only on the condition that they are used for non-continuous duty applications or will operate in environments where special modifications to the LV motor are needed. Critics of the legislation argue that this condition will be difficult to assess and even more difficult to enforce. As was discussed in the trends section of Chapter 2, some manufacturers have had to address a high number of orders in 2010, 2011 and 2012 for slightly modified IE1 LV motors. In essence, exemption loopholes in the EU efficiency legislation were being noticeably exploited in order to avoid having to purchase a more expensive IE2 class LV motor.

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However, new regulations in the form of EU 4/2014 that were introduced on July 27 th, 2014 are intended to amend the unintended loopholes in the EU MEPS. Please refer to Chapter 2, “Evolving Motor Efficiency Legislation in the European Union” in Section 2.4.1. Systems efficiency legislation is gaining prominence in the EU as pre-cursors of systems efficiency regulations have been established. In 2013, the EU implemented efficiency regulation 641/2009 for circulator pumps, and in 2015 this will be extended to water and wastewater pumps. Legislation passed in the EU in early 2014 under lot 11, EU 327/2011 derived from the same Eco -design Directive is intended to govern the efficiency of industrial fans. The second stage of these regulations is to be implemented starting in 2017.

3.1.1 The EMEA market for low-voltage motors by efficiency class Table 3.1 & Figures 3.1, 3.2, and 3.3 Due to the motor efficiency legislation implemented in June 2011 in addition to efficiency legislation coming in 2015 and 2017, the product mix in the EMEA market for LV motors market will experience a significant shift away from IE1 class LV motors, primarily towards IE2. In 2013, IE1 class LV motors’ share decreased to 43% of the region’s market, but continued to make up the largest portion. During the year, IE2 class LV motors gained significant traction, with IE2 revenues increasing dramatically from 27% share in 2012, to 41% in 2013. IE3 class LV motor revenues in 2013 accounted for 1.5% of revenues and just over 1% of units. IHS estimates that by the end of 2018, IE2 class LV motors will account for the largest portion of the market growing to an estimated 53% share. In contrast, the IE1 class LV motor segment is expected to drop to 22% of revenues in 2018, with most of these motors thought to be sold into countries with no efficiency regulations. Surprisingly, the IE1 market will still remain the second largest LV motor segment in the region in terms of revenues. By 2018, IE3 motors are expected to grow to 12% share of the region’s market, with the majority of IE3 motors expected to be sold into Western Europe. The region’s IE4 motor market is growing steadily relative to economic circumstances, and is expected to produce a revenue CAGR of 22.6% during the forecast period. This motor market accounted for 1.2% of all LV motor revenues in the region and 0.3% of units in 2013. The majority of IE4 class LV motors sold during the year were sold into the German, French and Italian LV motor markets as these countries are the domestic markets of the major IE4 manufacturers. However, as was discussed in Chapter 2, end-equipment manufacturers such as KSB, Bauer Gear Motor and Nord have entered the IE4 arena in Europe. There are many small IE4 manufacturers of elevators and lifts, pumps and fans in the region that produce their own proprietary design for an IE4 motors sold into the captive market. Notable motor manufacturers of IE4 LV motors sold into the EMEA region include ABB, Leroy Somer, ABM, SEW-Eurodrive, Marathon Electric, Yaskawa and Lafert Group. However, there are many small LV motor manufacturers that supply IE4 motors for niche markets, including ship propulsion, steel rolling mills and elevators and escalators. In early 2012, ABB officially launched its proprietary design of an IE4 class LV motor based on its proprietary synchronous reluctance (SynRM™) technology that does not use any magnets. However, shipments of this type of motor are thought to be in the hundreds of units in 2013. ABB’s acquisition Baldor sells more of its neodymium-based IE4 motors into Europe than the SynRM™ product. As was mentioned in Chapter 2, ABB recently unveiled its IE5 SynRM™ that has additional ferrite magnets on the rotor in order to achieve a theoretical IE5 rating. Brazil’s WEG also released an IE5 neodymium based motor at the same time as ABB. Early in 2013, The International Electrochemical Commission (IEC) published the standard IEC 60034-30-1:2014 titled Rotating electrical machines – Part 30-1: Efficiency classes of line operated AC motors which defines IE4 Super Premium Efficiency Motors and replaces the 2008 edition of IEC 60034-30. The IE5 rating has not been officially recognized or defined by the IEC. IHS believes that it will be quite some years before IE5 motors ship in the hundreds of units. The majority of IE4 LV motors range from 1-5HP and are primarily used for light motion, continuous duty (S1) applications such as compressors, fans, and pumps. European manufacturers interviewed for this report revealed that IE4 LV motors have been part of their plans for years, however, these products remain in research and development stages. French-based Leroy Somer and Italian-based Lafert Group have been marketing their respective IE4 motors as ‘IE4 Super Premium Efficiency’ motors for several years in anticipation of the official specifications by The International Electrochemical Commission (IEC).

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Despite the neodymium magnet crisis in 2011 that had IE4 motor manufacturers worried about the future efficacy of their newly IE4 launched product lines, IHS predicts that the IE4 class LV motor market will grow strongly in Western Europe, with neodymium-based motors holding majority share in this segment. Synchronous reluctance motors, including ABB’s proprietary version, and switched reluctance LV motors, as well as IE4 LV motors using new ferrite technologies, are expected to compete with neodymium-based IE4 motors.

3.1.2 The EMEA market for low-voltage motors by region Tables 3.2a and 3.2b & Figures 3.4, 3.5a and 3.5b

Austria & Switzerland An economic recovery emerged during the second half of 2013 in Austria, and is expected to continue in 2014. Austrian GDP growth dropped from 2.9% in 2011 to 0.7% in 2012 to 0.3% in 2013. IHS expects GDP growth to rebound to 1.8% in 2014 and 2.0% in 2015. One reason for this projected growth is Austria’s natural resources, which include iron ore, oil, timber, magnesite, lead, coal, lignite, copper, paper, and hydropower. Austria is a highly-developed industrial country in which its secondary sector, industrial production (including construction, energy, and mining), still holds an above-average proportion of economic activity when compared to other European countries. Austria is a significant player in both finished vehicle manufacturing and component supply. More than 300 companies are active in the automotive sector, with major investors including BMW, Chrysler, and General Motors. Chemicals, biotech, and pharmaceuticals are other strong export sectors for the country, with 90% of production exported. Around 450 companies are estimated to be established in the area, most significantly Henkel, Lenzing, and Baxter Immuno. Switzerland remains very stable politically and possesses one of the world’s most robust economies. The Swiss economy has also proved resilient to the current Eurozone debt crisis, despite its structurally heavy export orientation and small domestic market. The IHS December interim forecast estimated that annual Swiss GDP growth picked up from 1.0% in 2012 to 1.9% in 2013 and projected 2.0% growth in 2014. Switzerland has few mineral resources worth exploiting other than granite, limestone, and other aggregates for construction. The numerous rivers and water outlets from the Swiss Alps nevertheless offer a very cheap and clean energy supply that accounts for nearly 60% of the country's electricity requirements. Austria & Switzerland’s LV motor market experienced modest revenue growth in 2013 of 4.4%. This market is estimated to have been worth $143 million during the year, with 320k units sold. IHS forecasts Austria & Switzerland will perform slightly belo w the region’s market average of 9.1% at a CAGR of 9.0% for revenues, and 5.7% for units during the forecast period.

Benelux (Belgium, The Netherlands, Luxembourg) The Belgium economy has deteriorated markedly since 2009 because of the global economic downturn. IHS expects this to remain the case in the near term and for the economy to stagnate. After contracting 0.2% in 2012, the Belgian economy grew only 0.2% in 2013 and is expected to grow 1.4% in 2014. Belgian economic activity is anticipated to recover in 2014, but the pace is likely to be sluggish. Within the industrial sector, the focus is likely to shift further to the production of higher-value-added goods, as the metals, engineering and chemicals sectors face increased competition from East European and other developing countries. Belgium has a significant mineral processing sector and almost entirely uses imported raw materials because its own natural resources are very limited. The country produces marble, as well as industrial minerals such as limestone, sand, and gravel. It has coal deposits, but the last coal mines were unprofitable and consequently shut down. The fiscal position of The Netherlands presents a low-risk environment for investors. However, the country has deteriorated since 2009 due to the economic downturn, and public finances remain under pressure. As anticipated by IHS, the economy grew in the third quarter of 2013 for the first time since the second quarter of 2012. Nevertheless, economic activity is expected to remain weak in the near term, as muted private consumption and low business investments will continue to keep activity under pressure. IHS estimates that GDP contracted 1.0% in 2013 and forecasts a marginal growth of 0.4% for 2014. The Netherlands only major mineral natural resource is natural gas, with some small deposits of crude petroleum.

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Although the economy in Luxembourg has been growing at a faster pace than the Eurozone average for decades, growth slowed to about 0.5% during 2012–13 as the Eurozone debt crisis affected the economy. IHS predicted an uptick in GDP growth from a slight contraction of -0.2% in 2012 to 1.0% in 2013. GDP growth is expected to be 2.2% in 2014. Luxembourg is not an oil producer and has no refineries. It produces only a small amount of hydroelectricity, and can meet few of its domestic energy needs. The Luxembourg-Lorraine iron-mining basin is now depleted but the steel industry continues using iron imported from France. The country's grape growers are beginning to establish themselves as major suppliers of wine. The Benelux region’s motor market experienced lackluster revenue growth in 2013 of 3.5%. This market is estimated to have been worth $229 million during the year, with 514k units sold. IHS forecasts the Benelux region will perform below the region’s market average at a CAGR of 8.4% for revenues, and 4.8% for units during the forecast period.

Spain & Portugal The economic and financial risks facing Spain remain acute as the country continues to be enveloped by a profound financial crisis. Spain’s medium- and long-term bond issuance plans met its 2013 goal. However, the Spanish economy is still gripped by recession, with the government confirming that it needs until 2016 to lower its public sector budget deficit. It is increasingly unlikely that Spain, like Ireland, will approach the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) as a stressed country to apply for a precautionary credit line to ignite the ECB bond-buying program. The real GDP contraction forecast for 2014 has been lowered from 0.2% to 0.1% because of signs of stabilization in late 2013; however, the economy is expected to remain performing poorly well into the medium term, with real GDP growth unlikely to exceed 1.5% until 2018. Spain is the world's largest producer of granite, the second-largest exporter of marble and also has small deposits of gold, silver, and copper. A large area of the country is forested for timber. The country has no major oil deposits and imports all oil and natural gas. Coal is the one natural fuel stock in the country, but is not competitive on the international market. Spain is Europe's third-largest wine producer and second-largest olive oil producer. Principal industrial sectors include automobiles, energy oil, chemicals, and food processing. The construction sector is now under considerable pressure after a prolonged period of high activity before the global recession. Spain is one of the few nations in Europe to have a mining sector of any importance. Iron ore, mercury, potash, pyrites, and some uranium are all profitably mined. Economic growth in Portugal was weak before the crisis and is still facing several risks stemming from the country’s weak fiscal position. Portugal currently has one of the lowest productivity rates within the EU, and with global competition in traditional manufacturing sectors becoming even fiercer, Portugal will no longer be able to rely on its historically low nominal labor costs to attract investment. The traditionally strong textile and footwear sector has been hit especially hard, particularly by increasing competition from Asian and East European countries. After three consecutive years of contraction, GDP growth is expected to become positive in 2014 at 0.3%. One-third of Portugal is forested, providing substantial lumber resources. Portugal produces half of the world's cork, but the popularity of cork as a bottle stopper is declining. Deposits of iron ore, gold, tungsten, and copper are relatively numerous but geographically dispersed, meaning that economies of scale in mining are limited, despite excellent infrastructure. There are also a handful of scarce coal and gas deposits onshore and offshore. Portugal's Atlantic Ocean coastline and sunny climate provide the potential to harness alternative energy such as solar and wave power. Some major investments in alternative energy have recently been made in hopes that Portugal will become a leader in this field. After two years of contraction at 7.5% and 8.1% respectively, Spain & Portugal’s LV motor market posted positive growth of 1.0% in 2013. The Spanish & Portuguese LV motor market is still recovering from the global recession, with the industrial sectors in these countries still greatly diminished. This market is estimated to have been worth $204 million during the year, with 613k units sold. IHS forecasts Spain & Portugal will perform well-below below the region’s market average at a CAGR of 4.8% for revenues, and 3.2% for units during the forecast period.

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France France has lost significant external competitiveness since entering the Eurozone. French banks are also exposed to the Spanish and, particularly, Italian economies, and would be significantly hit if the economic situations in these countries deteriorate. The government refrained from introducing significant spending cuts, as was the case in other Eurozone countries, resulting in a tightened fiscal policy at the start of 2013. Further fiscal adjustment measures have already been announced for 2014. VAT rates are expected to increase. IHS expects economic conditions to remain challenging in the country over the medium term. Tighter fiscal policy, a dysfunctional labor market, and shrinking profit margins are projected to keep output growth under pressure. The IHS December 2013 forecast sees GDP rising just 0.5% in 2014, although this is an improvement compared to the growth rates of 0.0% in 2012 and 0.2% in 2013. Following the United States, France is the second-largest agricultural producer in the world and accounts for one-third of EU agricultural land, which supports the country's farming sector as well as the timber industry. Forest area in France has increased significantly and continues to grow by about 74,000 hectares each year, allowing yields in annual harvests of around 52 million cubic meters of timber. The large volume of agricultural output also allows for a substantial food processing industry. France is well known internationally for its fine wines, cheeses, and other food delicacies. France boasts two of the world's most important vehicle producers in Renault and PSA Peugeot-Citroën, companies that are vital to the French economy and central to the health of the nation's exports. In addition, France provides the world with some of its most important components suppliers, including tire maker Michelin and Valeo. France excels in the production of a number of engineering disciplines, notably nuclear engineering, tunnel boring, and bar turning. Mineral resource exploitation is not a significant industry as deposits are not rich and much of the commercially exploitable coal resources have been exhausted. France is a significant producer of bauxite and uranium products; however, these are primarily sourced from its former colonies for refining in France. The French LV motor market experienced a slight setback in growth of 7.0% in 2013 after posting growth of 7.6% in 2012. The French market is estimated to have been worth $336 million in 2013, with 825k units sold. France is one of the few nations in Europe that is heavily dependent on nuclear power, as it sells a large amount of the energy it produces to its immediate EU neighbors. Growth rates for this market are expected to return to historical rates towards the end of the forecast period as the region’s economy is expected to improve. With a CAGR of 9.2% for revenues and 4.9% for units forecast during the forecast period, the French LV motor market is predicted to perform slightly above the region’s average.

Germany The main risk for the German economy in 2014 remains the Eurozone debt crisis and related concerns about the solvency of some Eurozone countries following the stabilization observed since the second quarter of 2013. Various confidence-boosting events occurred in late 2012 and 2013 including the European Central Bank’s announcement of potentially unlimited government bond purchases, Germany’s ratification of the European Stability Mechanism Treaty, and new debt deals for Greece and Ireland, with Ireland exiting the bailout program toward the end of 2013. Political turbulences at various times during 2013 in Italy, Cyprus, and Portugal, along with temporarily rising European bond yields during third quarter of 2013, have demonstrated that the whole situation remains fragile. Leading indicators show marked rebounding since November 2012, resulting in IHS forecasts for GDP growth of 0.6% in 2013 and 1.8% for 2014. The mining industry plays a small role in the country's economy. However, Germany has estimated reserves of 6,708 million tons of coal despite the use of coal in electricity generation having declined to 24%. The country produces sizeable quantities of several minerals, including lignite, bituminous coal, iron ore, potash and salt. More than 85% of lignite mined is used to generate electricity; however, Germany has reduced lignite production and modernized its existing power stations, including building new ones. In May 2011, Chancellor Merkel announced that Germany would close all of its nuclear reactors by 2022. Germany is believed to be able to use renewables (primarily wind power) to replace most of the lost output from nuclear. Germany is the seventh-largest refiner of crude oil in the world, and the largest in Western Europe. The proportion of energy supply accounted for by oil has fallen from 34.7% in 2008 to 32% in 2010. Germany has considerable forestry resources. Water supply presents problems because of the constant needs placed on it by a major industrialized nation. Germany remains the economic juggernaut bolstering the EU economy with its massive machine builder/OEM sector.

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The German LV motor market experienced healthy growth of 9.0% in 2013 after posting growth of 8.6% in 2012. The German market is estimated to have been worth $1,159 million in 2013, with 2,601 units sold. Germany’s two consecutive years of steady growth, the highest in the region comparatively, could be a sign that the worst of the Eurozone debt crisis’ effect on the LV motor market in the Eurozone region is being overcome. With a CAGR of 10.8% for revenues and 5.9% for units forecast during the forecast period, the German LV motor market is predicted to perform significantly above the region’s average of 9.1%.

Italy Italy’s economic, fiscal, political, and financial risks remain acute. Recent economic data confirmed that the economy shrank for the seventh successive quarter up to Q1 of 2013. Tough austerity measures implemented in 2012 and 2013, tighter credit lines, and rising unemployment have resulted in Italy having little room for maneuvering. The country is still locked in a prolonged economic downturn. Deteriorating fiscal metrics contributed to the public debt ratio climbing to 127% of GDP in 2012. However, the latest forward-looking data are still short of the levels required to support a solid and sustainable upturn in the Italian business cycle, and continue to point to further declines in domestic spending in early 2014. Overall, GDP growth shrank to 1.9% in 2013 and is expected to drop further to 0.3% in 2014. Italy's past strengths are now responsible for heralding a period of very weak growth. IHS expects the economy to stabilize in the first half of 2014, but the recovery is likely to be labored. The Italian economy has developed strong specializations in the production of textiles, clothing and footwear, leather goods, furniture, and machine tools. These specializations, however, coupled with the high concentration of small enterprises in the traditional textiles and footwear sectors, have made Italy vulnerable to strong price competition from low-cost producers in China, India, and Eastern Europe. Mining contributes only a small portion to the country's economy; however, production in some minerals is considerable. Mineral resources include barites, lignite, pyrites, fluorspar, sulfur, and mercury. Italy is the world's largest producer of pumice and related materials, and is also the largest producer of feldspar, which is used in the production of ceramics. The largest sector of industrial output is within machinery and metals production. However, there are serious concerns about the country losing ground in the hi-tech sector as lower-priced foreign competitors in the industrial machinery sector undercut Italian producers. The Italian LV motor market grew at a modest 4.0% in 2013 after poor growth of 1.7% in 2012. As mentioned above, Italy is in a prolonged economic recession. The Italian LV motor market is still recovering from the global recession, and the recovery has been further compounded by the austerity measures resulting from the Eurozone debt crisis (as is the case with most countries in the EU). The Italian market is estimated to have been worth $416 million in 2013, with 1,012k units sold. IHS expects growth in the Italian market to be constrained in the medium term, with growth rates returning to healthy historical levels towards the end of the forecast period. With a projected CAGR of 8.1% for revenues and 4.2% for units shipped over the forecast period, the Italian LV motor market is predicted to perform below the region’s average of 9.1% for revenues.

United Kingdom & Ireland The UK economy suffered during the global recession, experiencing five quarters of deep contraction before finally experiencing growth in the third quarter of 2009. Until the second quarter of 2013, the United Kingdom experienced only gradual overall recovery. Industrial activity is no longer as dominant as it once was, but the country remains a major exporter of goods. Around half of the countries it trades with are Eurozone member countries. The country now faces an extended period of substantial fiscal tightening involving major spending cuts and, to a lesser extent, tax hikes. Other important medium-term issues include the needs for infrastructure investment and increasing productivity. The GDP growth forecast for 2014 has been edged up to 2.6% from 2.5% primarily because the economy performed better at the end of 2013 than expected. Ireland's economy experienced growth in the second quarter of 2013 after four consecutive quarters of contraction. IHS forecasts GDP rising by 1.8% in 2014. Improving domestic market conditions should provide a boost to private consumption and investments. At the same time, growth among Ireland’s key trade partners is expected to pick up in 2014, boosting their demand for Irish goods and services. The European Union–International Monetary Fund (IMF-EU) aid program should continue to help Ireland manage its downsizing of the commercial banks' balance sheets. Ireland left the IMF-EU program at the end of 2013 and returned to the financial markets for funding. The real risk for the government is another twist in the Eurozone debt crisis that would prevent the country from maintaining regular access to the market, forcing a withdrawal and a request for more official funds from the IMF-EU.

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The electronics sector has become the keystone of Ireland's new economy, with over 300 companies accounting for more than one-third of total exports. This has made Ireland one of the EU's major manufacturers. Ireland has rapidly become one of the largest exporters of pharmaceuticals and chemicals in the world. The natural resources of Ireland are zinc, lead, natural gas, petroleum, copper, dolomite, barite, limestone, gypsum, peat, and silver. Zinc and lead are the most industrious. Irish industries include fishing, forestry, machinery, mining, and livestock. Peat has been Ireland’s staple fuel for centuries and still provides about 12% of the nation's energy needs. Recently, Ireland has experimented with "new energy sources”, which include hydroelectric power, solar power, and wind power. The UK & Ireland LV motor market experienced low growth at 3.7% in 2013 after similar low growth of 4.0% in 2012. As mentioned above, the UK is in a period of fiscal tightening, which is predicted to limit economic expansion in the medium term. The UK & Ireland market is estimated to have been worth $152 million in 2013, with 371k units sold. Growth rates closer to historical levels are expected to return towards the end of the forecast period. With a projected CAGR of 8.4% for revenues and 4.3% for units shipped over the forecast period, the UK & Ireland LV motor market is predicted to perform below the region’s average of 9.1%.

The Nordic Countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden) Denmark is a relatively low-risk, dynamic, and stable economy offering a secure and attractive environment for foreign investors. Being outside of the Eurozone, Denmark’s krone has recently been seen as a safe-haven currency while the Eurozone debt crisis continues. IHS expected real GDP to grow 0.4% in 2013. The economy is still projected to recover moderately in 2014, with GDP growing by around 1.7%. Denmark has both oil and natural gas reserves, and recent finds are helping to reduce dependency on petroleum imports. Crude oil production peaked during 2000-05, but has declined steadily to about half the amount of the peak levels by 2011. Denmark remains a net exporter of crude oil. Energy conservation efforts in the country are impressive and there has been a drive in recent years to convert coal stations to domestic natural gas. The Finnish economy has been slow to recover, while the Finnish industrial sector is going through major changes, compounded by its flagship national firm, Nokia, selling its handset business to Microsoft. Problems in several very important export sectors, such as telecommunications, paper, and metal output, are becoming increasingly clear. IHS estimated a GDP contraction of 0.7% for 2013. Domestic demand in particular is suppressed, as consumer confidence remains weak and unemployment is still high. Finland has no proven oil or natural reserves, so petroleum has to be imported. A pipeline transferring natural gas from Russian fields in the Barents Sea to Germany was completed in 2012. This pipeline passes through the Finnish Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the Baltic Sea, but none of the Baltic Sea states are connected to the pipeline, apart from Russia and Germany. The main metallic deposits are copper, nickel, zinc and chromium ore. Small quantities of gold, silver, mercury and selenium are also mined, as is coal. Overall, the mining industry is doing well and interest in exploration is increasing. Finnish and Swedish manufacturers supply about 80% of global underground mining equipment. Finland’s forestry industry, including paper and pulp production, continues to play a major role in the economy. The total installed wind farm capacity in Finland at the end of 2012 was 288MW, with approximately 163 turbines. A further 125 MW was planned for installation in 2013. The target is to reach 2,500MW of power output produced by wind power by 2020. Biomass is used intensively in the paper industry, and the share of biomass-produced energy is about 11% in Finland. Despite performing better than expected in the first half of 2012, the Norwegian economy faced significant challenges in late 2012 and 2013. The prospect of softer domestic demand across the Eurozone, triggered by recession creeping across the region, is a notable threat to Norwegian exports, output levels, and employment rates. GDP increased 0.7% in 2013. Norway is the world's seventh-largest crude oil exporter and the largest supplier of natural gas to Northwest Europe, but those positions are now declining steadily. Norway has modest amounts of iron ore, copper, zinc, and coal. Large deposits of chalk, dolomite, graphite, and limestone that can be used commercially can also be found in Norway, as the country has Europe's only molybdenum mine and its largest deposit of limonite. Norway remains a major shipbuilder despite strong competition from the Far East. The main imports into Norway include machinery, transport equipment, chemicals, clothing and accessories, iron, steel and metal ores. Norway generates large quantities of inexpensive hydroelectric power, harnessing the power of the many rivers that pour out o f the country's rugged mountain ranges. More than 90% of the country's electricity consumption is provided by hydroelectric power.

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Sweden is expected to be one of the forerunners of the recovery that is evolving across the EU. A key advantage is that Sweden's public finances are in a sound position, so expansionary fiscal policy could be used to stimulate the economy, an option not available to other major European economies. Swedish real GDP growth was revised up to 1.0% in 2013 with real GDP projected to expand 1.4% in 2014. Sweden's main natural resource is its large tracts of fertile soil suitable for farming and extensive forests, covering around two-thirds of the country. Forestry and associated processing in particular is a major industry. In addition, there are sizeable deposits of high-grade iron ore and other minerals. The country possesses an estimated 15% of the world's uranium reserves, and the country’s large freshwater lakes allow it to develop significant hydroelectricity generation capacity. The Nordic Countries LV motor market experienced a lackluster growth in revenues of 2.7% in 2013 after a similar poor growth of 2.8% in 2012. Despite the poor growth in the LV motor market, the relatively strong economies of the Nordic Countries are being shielded to some extent from the Eurozone debt crisis, and this bodes well for expansion in the medium term. The Nordic Countries market is estimated to have been worth $475 million in 2013, with 1,078k units sold. With a projected CAGR of 8.3% for revenues and 4.6% for units shipped over the forecast period, the Nordic Countries’ LV motor market is predicted to perform below the region’s average of 9.1%.

Turkey Through the first three quarters of 2013, domestic demand in Turkey grew robustly. However, tighter credit and higher commercial bank interest rates are projected to restrain both consumption and investment activity heading into 2014. Additionally, export growth will remain much more tepid than it had been previously, further weighing down potential economic growth. Although IHS growth projections are now more muted for 2014 relative to the second and third quarter gains in 2013, growth in Turkey will nonetheless remain relatively vigorous, particularly as compared to the rest of Europe. Exacerbating the country’s financial issues are domestic political troubles and the Syria morass, which discourage inflows of capital into Turkey. Turkey's industrial sector is well-developed. More resources are being poured into further development of energy refining. It has some oil deposits, but not enough to meet domestic demand. The country has substantial reserves of coal, estimated at around 1 billion tons. Main areas of specialization include textiles and clothing, ceramics and glass, steel, chemicals, and light consumer goods. Turkey is heavily dependent on imported oil and gas. Power capacity is set to increase because of planned nuclear power plant production, but Turkey is far from being self-sufficient in electricity. The country hopes to become a key middleman between the markets of Europe and the energy production of Russia and Central Asia. Agricultural resources are rich in cereal, cash, and fruit crops. More specifically, agricultural production is greatest in tobacco, cotton, grain, olives, sugar beets, and citrus fruits, and Turkey is a leading exporter of hazelnuts. Substantial mineral reserves exist in copper, zinc, lead, and gold, as Turkey is a leading global exporter of chrome. The production of automobiles is a leading growth sector. The Turkish LV motor market, which officially started its transition to IE2 in mid-2012, experienced low growth of 3.1% in 2013 after a modest growth of 5.1% in 2012. The Turkish market is estimated to have been worth $221 million in 2013, with 793k units sold. Growth rates for this market are expected to return to historical levels towards the end of the forecast period as the region’s economy is expected to improve, and the Turkish economy remains relatively stable. With a forecast revenue CAGR of 9.2% and units shipped CAGR of 5.8% over the forecast period, the Turkish MV motor market is predicted to perform slightly above the region’s average.

Poland Poland was the only EU country to avoid recession during the global financial crisis of 2008–09; however, the ongoing Eurozone crisis had a negative impact on the Polish economy, dropping growth rates close to zero in late 2012 and early 2013, before growth rates recovered modestly in the second and third quarters of 2013. In an attempt to stimulate the economy, the National Bank of Poland introduced interest rate cuts.

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Food processing and related industries constitute one of Poland's major sectors. Foreign investment within the sector has featured companies such as Nestlé, Philip Morris, and Coca Cola. Like its Central European neighbors, Poland has a significant concentration of firms focusing on automobile components and vehicle assembly. Volkswagen, Daewoo, General Motors, and Fiat lead the automotive investment in Poland. There has been diverse foreign investment, particularly from Germany, which has taken advantage of Poland's relatively inexpensive unskilled and semi-skilled workforce in the labor-intensive process of manufacturing. Poland's mineral wealth is rich in hard anthracite deposits, while there are also significant deposits of lignite, sulfur, and copper. Other minerals of economic importance are rock salt, potash, and iron ore. Small abundances of natural gas and oil are found in the pre-Carpathian region, while Poland is potentially rich in shale gas deposits. Exploration has already started, but the actual reserves of shale gas and the feasibility of drilling and producing it in Poland are still in question unless fracking technology is used. Poland’s LV motor market experienced modest revenue growth of 5.3% in 2013 after a better growth of 7.1% in 2012. Although Poland is not yet a full-fledged member of the European Union, its economic fate is tied to a certain extent to the region’s economic woes. The Polish market is estimated to have been worth $221 million in 2014, with 704 units sold. With a forecast revenue CAGR of 9.1% and a units shipped CAGR of 4.9% over the forecast period, the Polish MV motor market is predicted to perform at the region’s average.

Russian Federation & CIS Russia's rate of recovery from the global recession in 2008–09 has remained moderate. Reduced aggregate demand in Western Europe and the hesitancy of banks in that sub-region to extend loans to emerging European countries continued to dampen Russian growth in 2013 as Western Europe is Russia’s most important trading partner and source of external financing. IHS estimates GDP growth slowed to 1.7% in 2013. IHS expects GDP growth to rebound in 2014, albeit minor at 2.7%. The natural resource extraction sector is suffering from an extended period of insufficient investment during the country's economic transition. The southern part of European Russia has rich soil and supports most of the region's agriculture, while the Ural Mountains contain important mineral deposits including mineral fuels, iron ore, nonferrous metals, and nonmetallic minerals. The southern mountains, notably the Caucasus Mountains, contain valuable mineral deposits. The northern and central regions of the West Siberian Plain hold important oil and natural gas deposits. The Central Siberian Plateau is believed to contain substantial deposits of hard coal. New resource deposits required to replace the dwindling capacity of older, depleted deposits are generally associated with harsher geographical and climatic conditions, which complicate logistics and make them more capital intensive to develop and exploit. Therefore, huge investments will be required. The Russian Federation & CIS’s LV motor market experienced poor growth of 3.2% in 2013 after a healthy growth of 7.9% in 2012. The Russian oil & gas market is heavily dependent on Europe’s economic stability. With North America poised to become a major exporter of oil & gas in the short, medium, and possibly long term, this traditionally strong industry sector may suffer. The Russian & CIS market has no official energy regulations for LV motors and is estimated to have been worth $535 million in 2013, with 1,597k units sold. GOST motors, which are thought to have efficiency ratings lower than IE1 are heavily concentrated in this region. The region does not currently have official energy efficiency regulations. With a forecast revenue CAGR of 8.6% and a units shipped CAGR of 4.1% over the forecast period, the Russian Federation & CIS LV motor market is predicted to perform below the region’s average of 9.1%.

Central & Eastern Europe In 2013, Central & Eastern Europe’s LV motor market is estimated to have been worth $273 million, with 934k units sold. Power generation and infrastructure expansion (housing and public utilities) were the largest industries for LV motors in this region. At the time this report was published, energy efficiency regulations did not exist in Central & Eastern countries. These countries are assumed to be mostly end-user markets, consisting of mostly IE1 and GOST standard motors.

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The Central & Eastern European’s LV motor market experienced a low revenue growth of 2.0% during 2013 after a better growth of 3.4% in 2012. The Central & Eastern European economy is heavily dependent on Western Europe’s economic stability. Growth rates closer to historical levels for this market are expected to return in 2014. With a forecast revenue CAGR of 9.1% and a units shipped CAGR of 4.9% over the forecast period, the Central & Eastern European’s LV motor market is predicted to perform at the region’s average.

Africa GDP growth for the nation slowed from an average of 5.6% from 2002–08 to 2.2% in 2009 due to the global financial crisis and steep food and fuel price rises. However, Africa quickly recovered with growth of 4.8% in 2010. The continent’s growth slipped again in 2011 owing to political turmoil and transition in North Africa, but rebounded strongly to 5.4% in 2012, despite the global slowdown and uncertainty. The nation’s performance is largely commodity-driven and is bolstered by strengthening domestic demand associated with rising incomes and urbanization, increasing public spending on infrastructure, bumper harvests, tightening trade and investment ties with emerging economies linked to investment in Africa’s natural resources and extractive industries. Africa’s growth prospects faltered slightly in 2013, as it grew only 3.6%. IHS expects growth to climb to 5.2% in 2014, with GDP forecasts predicting growth above 5.0% each year through 2020. The continent’s population has reached the 1 billion mark and is projected to increase by 20% by 2030. The inadequate supply of infrastructure presents a significant obstacle for businesses in sub-Saharan Africa in contrast to North Africa. Mineral exports make up over half of the region’s total exports as the continent has 12% of the world's oil reserves, 40% of its gold, and 80% to 90% of its chromium and platinum. Resource-rich African countries are projected to increase production with newly discovered oil deposits in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. In addition to oil, production of gold (in Burkina Faso and Tanzania), coal and gas (in Mozambique) are set to increase. Non-oil producers are also encouraging exploration, such as Ethiopia in the Ogaden Basin and Rwanda in Lake Kivu. Africa is also home to 60% of the world's underutilized arable land and has vast timber resources. However, infrastructure is inadequate in all six of the nation’s oil exporting states and characterizes one of the nation’s most significant competitive handicaps. The African LV motor market experienced a modest growth of 6.0% in 2013 after a strong growth of 12.5% in 2012. The African market is estimated to have been worth $283 million in 2013, with 916k units sold. Africa’s oil & gas and mining sectors are strong and are expected to remain stable despite the expectation that its oil reserves will be somewhat displaced by shale gas exports from North America. Africa is poised to be a robust emerging economy with needed infrastructure and power generation upgrades expected during the decade. However, no energy efficiency regulations exist in this region and it is assumed to be mainly an IE1 market for LV motors. Growth rates for this market are expected to remain modest through 2016, and increase towards strong growth rates towards the end of the forecast period. With a forecast revenue CAGR of 10.0% and units shipped CAGR of 4.7% over the forecast period, the African LV motor market is predicted to perform well above the region’s average.

The Middle East The near-term economic outlook for the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region has weakened. Difficult political transitions and increased regional uncertainties arising from the complex civil war in Syria and the ongoing developments in Egypt weigh on confidence in the oil-importing countries. Domestic supply disruptions and weak global demand are reducing oil production, in addition to recent upward pressure on oil prices arising from increased geopolitical risks. GDP growth in the MENAP region declined to 2.7% in 2013. However, IHS expects growth to resume through 2017. Growth is expected to pick up in 2014 as global conditions improve and oil production in the region recovers. Renewed oil output disruptions in Iraq and Libya, falling oil exports in Iran in response to tightening sanctions, and a modest fall in oil production in Saudi Arabia all reflect an abundantly supplied global oil market. By contrast, the non-oil economy in the region continues to expand at a solid pace in most countries, supported by high levels of public spending and a gradual recovery of private sector credit growth. Slowing global oil demand caused by lower growth in emerging markets and rising supply from unconventional sources (such as shale gas in North America) could reduce oil prices and/or induce members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut back supply.

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Major natural resources of the region include oil and natural gas, cement, cotton, textiles, cotton, coal and iron. Iran has an advantage in comparison to other regional markets in that it has thriving automotive, telecommunications, agriculture, petrochemical, mining, steel, and copper industries, which make it unique in the Middle East. Israel’s offshore natural gas reserves are far larger than previously thought. According to the US Geological Survey, recoverable natural gas in the Levant Basin located in Israeli and Cypriot waters of the eastern Mediterranean Sea amounts to 18.9 trillion cubic feet. The new find could save Israel tens of billions of dollars in energy imports from Egypt and other places and position it as a new natural gas source for Europe, one of the world’s largest LNG markets. The Middle Eastern LV motor market experienced modest growth of 6.6% in 2013 after a strong growth of 12.6% in 2012. The Middle Eastern market is estimated to have been worth $333 million in 2013, with 764k units sold. Like Africa, the Middle Eastern oil & gas and mining sectors are strong and are expected to remain stable despite the expectation that its oil reserves will be somewhat displaced by shale gas exports from North America in the medium term. Some Middle Eastern countries (mainly the oil producing ones such as Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia) are poised to be robust emerging economies with needed infrastructure and power generation upgrades expected during the decade. However, political turmoil in Iraq and Syria could make this forecast vulnerable. Because of the intensifying strife in the region, IHS predicts disruption in those nation’s industrial economies, and expects very low growth of 1.9% in 2014, with strong growth rates returning towards the end of the forecast period. No energy efficiency regulations exist in this region and it is assumed to be mainly an IE1 market for LV motors. With a forecast revenue CAGR of 10.1% and units shipped CAGR of 4.8%, the Middle Eastern LV motor market is predicted to perform above the region’s average during the forecast period.

3.1.3 The EMEA market for low-voltage motors by application Tables 3.3a and 3.3b & Figures 3.6 and 3.7 Like in other regions, the applications sectors that are most insulated from economic difficulties are the pump, fan and compressor sectors as all three are expected to perform at, or outperform the market average of 9.1% during the forecast period, generating CAGRs for revenues of 9.1%, 9.8% and 9.2%, respectively. Low voltage motors sold into these outperforming application sectors stand to benefit the most from energy efficiency improvements as they are typically run at continuous duty (S1) cycles, and typically employ LV motors with power ratings in the 0.75kW to 7.4kW (1HP to 10HP) range. Because of this typical range in power rating, these application sectors will see the quickest transition from IE1 to IE2 motors in the short-term. Application sectors that are expected to perform significantly under the market average are expected to be Cranes & Hoists, Roller Tables, Propulsion, Winches and Winders at 7.7%, 6.3%, 3.3%, 6.9%, and 6.3%. The Printing application sector suffered a second straight year of contraction at 2.6% for 2013, after posting a 6.3% contraction in 2012.

3.1.4 The EMEA market for low-voltage motors by manufacturing sector Tables 3.4, 3.5a, 3.5b, 3.6 and 3.7 & Figures 3.8, 3.9, 3.10, 3.11, 3.12 and 3.13

Discrete manufacturing sector The Discrete Sector (Machine builders/OEMs) was the least affected of the three manufacturing sectors during the recovering economy in the region in 2013. The OEM sector in the region was estimated to be worth $3,216 million in 2013 with 9,418k units shipped. However, even the very stable OEM market was limited to a modest 5.4% growth in revenues from 2012 to 2013. However, the Discrete Sector is expected to outperform the market average of 9.9% during the forecast period at 9.4%, while the Process Sector is expected to underperform the market average at 9.0%. Discrete Sectors that are forecast to outperform the region’s market during the forecast period include Commercial HVAC, Conveyors, Elevators & Escalators, Food Beverage & Tobacco, Machine Tools, Packaging & Labeling, and Rubber & Plastics. OEM sectors forecast to significantly underperform the region’s market during the forecast period include Cranes & Hoists, Printing, Shipbuilding & Marine, and Woodworking.

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Process manufacturing sector The Process Sector (end-users) continues to rebound from the economic troubles in the region, posting a second consecutive year of lackluster growth. The End-user sector in the region was estimated to be worth $1,496 million in 2013 with 2,826k units shipped. Modest revenue growth of 5.4% and low unit growth in 2012 was followed by slightly worse results in 2013 or 4.8% revenue growth and 2.3% unit growth. Compared to 2012, strong growth the Process Sectors in 2013 came from Chemicals, Food, Beverage & Tobacco and Rubber & Plastics at 9.6%, 10.8% and 14.3%, respectively. Low revenues growth of less than 3% was experienced in the Pharmaceuticals, Power Generation – Nuclear & Fossil, Power Generation – Renewable Energy. However, three sectors are expected to outperform the market during the forecast period including Chemicals, Food, Beverage & Tobacco, and Oil & Gas and Power Generation – Nuclear & Fossil at 10.2%, 11.3%, 9.1% and 9.3%, respectively.

Other manufacturing sector The Other Manufacturing sector in the region was estimated to be worth $296 million in 2013 with 801.5k units shipped. The sector is predicted to perform under the regional market average, generating a CAGR of 6.4% for revenues during the forecast period. Only one Other Manufacturing sector, Infrastructure, is forecast to outperform the global market average during the forecast period, generating a CAGR for revenues of 7.4%.

3.1.5 The EMEA market for low-voltage motors by frame size Tables 3.7, 3.8a, 3.8b, 3.9a, 3.9b, and 3.9c & Figures 3.12, 3.13, 3.14 and 3.15 IEC frame LV motors were estimated to account for over 99% of the region’s LV motor revenues in 2012, with NEMA frame LV motors accounting for less than 1% of revenues. The IEC segment is expected to slightly outperform the market average at 9.2%. A small market for NEMA frame LV motors does exist in the region, but it is relegated to OEM exports to North America. The majority of LV motors sold into the EMEA LV market are between 80 and 225 IEC frame sizes, as these segments are all expected to perform at or above the market average during the forecast period. Revenues for IEC frame LV motors in the region are expected to grow steadily from organic demand through 2018, but will also be artificially influenced by inorganic demand resulting from the transition to more expensive IE2 and IE3 class LV motors during the forecast period. NEMA frame LV motors sold into the region are thought to be replacement motors for NEMA-centric machinery that exists in the EMEA installed base, primarily in the oil and gas and mining sectors of Africa and the Middle East. Revenues from NEMA frame LV motors sold to OEMs in this region will be more positively affected by the transition to higher efficiency motors in the export markets of North America than they will by organic demand from the OEMs themselves. Therefore, it is expected that NEMA frame LV motors in the EMEA will significantly underperform the market average at 2.2% CAGR for revenues.

3.1.6 The EMEA market for low-voltage motors by sales channel Table 3.10 & Figures 3.16 and 3.17 The variances between sales channels in the EMEA region are similar to other regions due to the strong influence of the Discrete Sector in the global LV motors market. Machinery production by OEMs has remained an outperforming sector through the global recession and during the ongoing recovery from Eurozone economic difficulties. The Direct to OEM sector accounted the largest sales channel in the region, and accounted for an estimated $3,928 million in 2013, or just over 78% of LV motor revenues in the region. Direct to End-user, Distribution to End-user, Distribution to OEM, and Distribution to Systems Integrator all experienced lackluster revenue growth in 2013 compared to 2012 at 2.5%, 0.6%, 1.2% and 1.1%, respectively. Both OEM sales channels are expected to outperform the market during the forecast period at 9.3% and 10.1%, respectively, while both systems integrators channels will significantly underperform the region’s average at 6.8% and 6.3%, respectively.

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3.1.7 The EMEA market for low-voltage motors by power rating Table 3.11 & Figures 3.18 and 3.19 The majority of LV motor revenues generated in region are attributed to LV motors between the power ratings of 0.75kW to 7.4kW (1HP to 10HP). In 2013, revenues from these power ranges account for an estimated $3,576 million, or almost 71% of the region’s LV motor market. In terms of units, this power range accounts for over almost 97% of units shipped. IHS expects the segments in this power rating range to outperform the market during the forecast period at10.1%, 9.6% and 9.1%, respectively. Despite the forecast underperformance of power rating segments between 7.5kW to 376kW (10HP to 500HP) in the region’s LV motor market during the forecast period, it is important to note that in 2015, Phase 2 of the EU’s efficiency transition to IE3 class LV motors begins. Therefore, beginning in 2015 and on through 2017, IHS expects LV motors segments between 7.5kW to 376kW (10HP to 504HP) in power rating to experience significantly higher year-on-year revenue growth than in previous years. This is due to revenue growth from inorganic demand resulting from energy efficiency regulations transitioning these power rating segments to IE3. However, as the provision allows, the surge in IE3 class LV motors during this year will be somewhat augmented by the allowance of an IE2+VFD in order to satisfy the regulations.

3.1.8 The EMEA market for low-voltage motors by enclosure Table 3.12 & Figures 3.20 and 3.21 The most prevalent enclosure for LV motors sold into the EMEA region is the totally enclosed fan-cooled (TEFC) variety. In 2013, TEFC LV motors, both non-hazardous and hazardous, accounted for an estimated $4,614 million, or 92% of EMEA market’s LV motor revenues and almost 94% of units shipped during the year. Revenues generated from TEFC non-hazardous LV motors are projected to slightly outperform the market during the forecast period, generating a CAGR of 9.3% for revenues. The hazardous area LV motor market has experienced higher year-on-year growth that in past years due to liability concerns in the automated factory environment. This sub-segment of TEFC is projected to grow robustly, producing a CAGR of 10.8% for revenues during the forecast period. Overall, the hazardous area equipment market, not for just LV motors, is widely considered to be a high growth market IHS extended the enclosure segmentation to include hazardous area motors for the 2013 Edition of the report, noted by the nonhazardous and hazardous sub-titles for each enclosure segment. The explosion proof motor, formerly referred to as the XP segment, is actually a subcategory of TEFC. An XP class motor uses a thicker grade of metal to protect the motor from a hazardous environment, or to minimize the potential for an unchecked ignition source to cause the motor to explode. The European equivalents of the North American-centric XP motor are also included in the TEFC/hazardous area segment. These equivalents include: Exd (flameproof), Exe (increased safety), Exia and EXib (intrinsically safe), Exo (oil immersion), Exp (pressurized apparatus), Exq (powder filling), Exm (encapsulation) and Exn (non-sparking). Open drip proof (ODP) motors are not in demand to the same degree in the EMEA region as they are in the Americas region, and usually occupy a minority share of European manufacturers’ product mixes. European manufacturers have reported that the influx of low cost Chinese TEFC motors into the region has had a disruptive effect on their respective cost models for producing ODP motors in smaller frame sizes. In essence, sustaining favorable margins for producing smaller frame size ODP motors has become more difficult. Due to this occurring, IHS has forecast that the segment will underperform the market during the forecast period, generating a CAGR of 7.5% for revenues.

3.2 EMEA market share analysis for 2013 Table 3.13 Low voltage motor manufacturers that have less than a 1.0% market share do not appear on Table 3.13, and are represented as a cumulative total in the Others grouping.

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Siemens held the top share position in the EMEA market for LV motors during 2013, with an estimated 17.0% share, a decrease of 0.5% from the previous year. Switzerland-based ABB is estimated to have had a 12.0% share in the region, down from 14.0% share in 2012. French manufacturer Leroy Somer held the third highest share in the region at 5.5% down from 6.5% in 2012. Austria’s ATB Group held the fourth share position in the EMEA at 3.5%, up 0.5% from 2012. Brazilian manufacturer WEG lost ground in region in 2013, moving down to the fifth share position in 2013 at 3.5%. The Russian manufacturer of GOST motors, LEZ Ruselprom, is mostly limited to the Russian Federation & CIS and Central & Eastern Europe for LV motor sales, and occupied the sixth share position at 3.0%, down from 3.5% shae in 2012. German-based VEM Group held steady at the seventh share position at 3.0% share. Poland’s Cantoni Group supplies mostly Central & Eastern Europe with LV motors and held the eighth share position at 2.5%. Turkish Arҫelik, strong in the Eastern European market, held the ninth position at 2.0%, followed closely by its main competitor in Turkey Gamak Motors which was estimated to have slightly below 2.0% of the EMEA market in 2013. Gamak Motors does not appear on the market share tables. All minor shareholders (less than 1%) are included in the Others share listing, with an aggregated total share of 48%. In terms of revenues for only IE4 LV motors, Italy’s Lafert Group was the top share leader in the region, while France’s Lero y Somer was second, with Japan’s Toshiba at the third share position in this growing motor segment.

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Table 3.1

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Efficiency Class

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


3,401.4 10,553.6 322

3,695.1 11,105.0 333

3,951.3 11,742.9 336

4,050.1 12,221.0 331

4,318.8 12,735.8 339

4,705.4 13,298.4 354

5,191.7 13,986.1 371

5,700.5 14,752.9 386

6,482.9 15,711.9 413

7,319.4 16,671.6 439

8.9% 5.2% 3.5%


2,850.0 9,128.8 312

3,019.2 9,523.9 317

2,988.7 9,527.1 314

2,642.6 8,931.0 296

2,133.8 7,434.8 287

1,622.3 5,738.7 283

1,531.6 5,390.8 284

1,597.6 5,513.0 290

1,691.1 5,665.5 298

1,796.9 5,902.1 304

-5.0% -4.7% -0.3%


511.4 1,365.2 375

613.7 1,503.0 408

860.8 2,076.3 415

1,284.0 3,116.8 412

2,048.8 5,118.6 400

2,931.4 7,360.4 398

3,450.2 8,313.7 415

3,841.8 8,901.4 432

4,160.8 9,172.6 454

4,375.9 9,187.5 476

26.9% 23.6% 2.7%


20.3 41.9 485

25.4 48.0 529

58.6 106.0 553

71.4 135.0 529

75.1 139.4 539

82.2 151.0 544

131.7 228.2 577

172.6 279.6 617

527.7 806.2 654

1,022.9 1,502.8 681

54.6% 48.9% 3.8%

19.7 17.7 1,115

36.8 30.1 1,220

43.1 33.5 1,287

52.1 38.2 1,363

61.0 43.0 1,419

69.5 48.4 1,437

78.2 53.4 1,465

88.4 58.9 1,500

103.3 67.5 1,530

123.6 79.2 1,561

22.6% 18.1% 3.8%

EFFICIENCIES: Total



392.5 497.8 788

434.5 489.5 888

548.4 428.3 1,280

712.9 415.0 1,718

689.0 309.4 2,227

722.1 280.2 2,577

778.0 262.1 2,968

830.2 255.1 3,254

896.6 246.0 3,645

991.0 247.1 4,010

10.8% -7.5% 19.8%


147.1 438.5 335

144.9 423.5 342

115.0 330.0 348

97.2 276.0 352

56.8 168.0 338

43.5 130.0 335

34.4 102.2 336

29.4 86.8 338

23.0 67.7 340

19.3 56.5 341

-20.2% -20.4% 0.2%


245.4 59.3 4,140

289.6 66.0 4,388

433.4 98.3 4,409

615.7 139.0 4,429

632.2 141.4 4,471

678.6 150.3 4,516

743.6 159.9 4,651

800.8 168.3 4,758

873.6 178.3 4,901

971.7 190.6 5,097

16.5% 13.9% 2.3%

3,793.9

4,129.6 8.8%

4,499.6 9.0%

4,763.0 5.9%

5,007.8 5.1%

5,427.5 8.4%

5,969.7 10.0%

6,530.7 9.4%

7,379.5 13.0%

8,310.4 12.6%

9.1%


4.8%


Source: IHS

July 2014

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Figure 3.1

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Efficiency Class - Share of Market - 2010 to 2018 100%

Other/non-reg.

90%

DC Motors

80%


Revenues (%)

70%


2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 3.2

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Efficiency Class - Market Breakdown and Growth 2,500

70%

2013 Revenues

60% 2,000

Growth 2014

50%

Growth 2015

1,500

30% 20%

1,000

10%

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

40%

0% 500

-10% -20%

0

-30% IE1

IE2

IE3

IE4


DC

Other

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Figure 3.3

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Efficiency Class - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 225%

IE1 - Standard

200% IE2 - High

175% 150%

IE3 - Premium Growth (%)

125% 100%

IE4 - Super Premium

75% DC Motors

50% 25%

Other/non-reg.

0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

-25%

2016

2017

2018

Total Market

-50%

Source: IHS

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Table 3.2a

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Region

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18

Austria & Switzerland Revenues ($M) 116.9 Units (k) 281.3 ASP ($) 415

123.3 288.0 428

131.1 299.6 438

136.8 310.3 441

143.0 320.4 446

169.0 364.1 464

186.1 385.6 483

209.5 421.2 498

232.8 441.5 527

253.0 461.3 548

9.0% 5.7% 3.1%

Benelux Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

179.7 454.6 395

199.2 463.0 430

214.1 486.9 440

221.5 500.2 443

229.3 514.5 446

250.7 541.0 463

286.1 591.9 483

305.4 612.9 498

344.3 651.7 528

384.2 696.0 552

8.8% 4.8% 3.8%

Spain & Portugal Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

231.6 641.5 361

237.8 639.0 372

220.0 618.7 356

202.2 608.0 333

204.2 613.1 333

228.4 659.2 346

250.5 695.3 360

273.8 734.2 373

310.4 785.4 395

352.6 849.6 415

4.8% 3.2% 1.6%

France Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

239.0 670.2 357

258.1 702.0 368

289.5 749.3 386

311.6 789.2 395

333.5 825.4 404

349.2 832.0 420

375.4 851.7 441

411.8 894.1 461

468.0 958.7 488

527.9 1,029.9 513

9.2% 4.9% 4.1%

Germany Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

750.9 1,924.5 390

863.5 2,128.1 406

978.7 2,278.8 429

1,062.6 2,417.7 440

1,158.5 2,600.6 445

1,254.8 2,683.9 468

1,373.1 2,773.5 495

1,516.3 2,916.9 520

1,695.0 3,061.6 554

1,890.0 3,220.6 587

10.8% 5.9% 4.6%

Italy Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

297.0 802.5 370

355.6 956.0 372

392.9 1,012.9 388

399.7 1,019.1 392

415.8 1,012.4 411

426.9 999.5 427

460.4 1,034.6 445

487.5 1,059.7 460

541.6 1,110.8 488

600.6 1,160.8 517

8.1% 4.2% 3.8%

UK & Ireland Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

131.6 364.0 361

137.9 370.0 373

141.4 368.1 384

147.0 372.9 394

152.4 370.8 411

164.9 385.9 427

184.2 413.5 445

206.1 448.8 459

238.3 489.6 487

272.0 532.3 511

8.4% 4.3% 3.9%

The Nordic Countries Revenues ($M) 411.1 Units (k) 1,017.5 ASP ($) 404

431.7 1,036.0 417

450.1 1,051.5 428

462.7 1,069.7 433

475.3 1,078.5 441

537.6 1,172.9 458

594.6 1,245.0 478

653.1 1,326.4 492

744.5 1,426.3 522

846.0 1,529.1 553

8.3% 4.6% 3.6%

Turkey Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

200.4 707.8 283

212.2 727.0 292

230.1 760.4 303

241.8 784.1 308

249.2 793.3 314

274.7 848.8 324

317.0 941.9 337

349.5 1,007.2 347

397.0 1,094.8 363

443.9 1,172.6 379

9.2% 5.8% 3.3%

Poland Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

168.4 600.0 281

176.8 611.0 289

196.6 653.6 301

210.5 683.0 308

221.7 704.2 315

241.8 738.4 327

269.4 783.4 344

294.1 828.2 355

330.5 872.6 379

369.2 923.8 400

9.1% 4.9% 4.0%


Source: IHS

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Table 3.2b

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Region

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18

411.7 1,386.1 297

440.5 1,426.1 309

480.8 1,499.9 321

518.5 1,569.5 330

535.0 1,597.2 335

572.1 1,642.1 348

625.4 1,701.7 367

675.0 1,774.5 380

767.2 1,888.4 406

861.5 1,981.8 435

8.6% 4.1% 4.3%

Cent. & East. Europe Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

236.9 861.2 275

248.7 877.0 284

259.5 900.7 288

268.3 919.4 292

273.6 934.1 293

302.4 992.6 305

341.9 1,078.6 317

381.6 1,163.2 328

432.3 1,243.2 348

517.3 1,328.2 390

9.1% 4.9% 3.9%

Africa Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

195.3 760.0 257

205.1 774.0 265

237.3 831.8 285

267.0 876.1 305

283.0 916.3 309

315.2 980.9 321

342.8 1,019.3 336

372.1 1,069.2 348

417.4 1,114.5 374

459.9 1,147.8 401

10.0% 4.7% 5.1%

Middle East Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

223.6 580.3 385

239.2 597.0 401

277.6 659.0 421

312.7 716.8 436

333.3 764.4 436

339.8 737.2 461

362.8 732.3 495

394.8 751.8 525

460.1 818.9 562

532.1 885.1 601

10.1% 4.8% 5.1%

3,793.9

4,129.6 8.8%

4,499.6 9.0%

4,763.0 5.9%

5,007.8 5.1%

5,427.5 8.4%

5,969.7 10.0%

6,530.7 9.4%

7,379.5 13.0%

8,310.4 12.6%

9.1%


4.8%

Russian Fed. & CIS Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)


Source: IHS

July 2014

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Figure 3.4

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Region - Market Breakdown and Growth 1,200

20%

2013 Revenues

18% 16%

Growth 2014

14%

Growth 2015

12% 600

10% 8%

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

900

6% 300 4% 2% 0

0%

Source: IHS

July 2014

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Figure 3.5a

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Region - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 20%

Austria & Switzerland Benelux

15%

Spain & Portugal Growth (%)

10%

France Germany

5%

Italy 0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

UK & Ireland The Nordic Countries

-5%

Total Market -10%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 3.5b

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Region - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 20% Turkey

Poland

Growth (%)

15%

Russian Fed. & CIS Cent. & East. Europe

10%

Africa 5%

Middle East


2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


2016

2017

2018

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Table 3.3a

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Application

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


1,122.5 3,147.5 357

1,208.9 3,368.1 359

1,309.4 3,493.1 375

1,379.0 3,605.7 382

1,453.4 3,764.3 386

1,570.2 3,944.0 398

1,742.0 4,170.6 418

1,908.2 4,424.2 431

2,177.6 4,721.8 461

2,480.9 5,026.6 494

9.2% 5.3% 3.7%


60.6 101.7 596

71.7 107.0 670

79.8 113.8 701

84.6 116.7 725

88.7 120.3 738

98.0 127.9 766

106.6 132.0 808

116.0 137.8 842

128.8 144.9 889

142.2 151.9 936

9.9% 4.6% 5.1%


38.3 51.0 751

45.6 51.0 894

50.2 53.6 936

49.3 52.2 944

48.8 51.8 943

52.7 54.0 976

58.0 57.0 1,018

62.3 59.4 1,049

68.4 62.5 1,093

74.8 65.6 1,139

7.7% 2.9% 4.7%


26.6 29.2 910

32.3 30.0 1,077

35.1 31.6 1,111

37.8 32.2 1,173

39.0 30.1 1,295

41.8 31.1 1,341

42.7 30.5 1,398

44.0 30.7 1,436

48.4 32.4 1,496

53.1 34.1 1,559

8.0% 1.7% 6.2%


110.8 192.0 577

123.5 203.9 606

133.9 213.9 626

140.0 216.8 645

149.9 224.4 668

162.1 232.6 697

173.7 242.0 718

193.6 258.9 748

212.8 272.8 780

9.8% 4.3% 5.3%


40.9 68.0 602

49.4 69.0 716

53.8 72.5 742

54.2 71.5 758

56.6 73.9 767

61.2 77.1 794

67.5 81.6 827

74.4 87.5 850

83.1 93.8 886

92.6 100.3 924

9.5% 4.4% 4.9%


1,036.9 3,440.7 301

1,091.2 3,576.1 305

1,199.5 3,768.8 318

1,281.5 3,926.6 326

1,359.2 4,058.5 335

1,498.4 4,248.9 353

1,652.5 4,479.8 369

1,824.0 4,763.7 383

2,100.0 5,111.5 411

2,400.2 5,459.8 440

9.8% 5.3% 4.3%


12.4 26.0 478

14.8 26.0 569

16.2 27.2 596

15.4 25.8 598

15.8 26.4 600

17.3 27.9 621

19.2 29.7 647

19.6 29.8 659

20.7 30.1 687

21.6 30.2 716

6.3% 1.7% 4.6%


8.7 17.3 501

10.4 17.0 612

11.2 17.5 637

10.5 16.4 637

10.2 16.1 635

10.7 16.3 654

10.3 15.3 674

8.6 12.3 694

8.2 11.5 715

7.7 10.5 737

-1.3% -5.4% 4.4%


1,028.2 2,495.3 412

1,103.5 2,632.1 419

1,202.7 2,816.8 427

1,285.8 2,983.8 431

1,359.3 3,093.2 439

1,470.2 3,216.8 457

1,622.7 3,381.3 480

1,789.2 3,550.8 504

2,005.9 3,777.0 531

2,245.8 4,015.9 559

9.1% 5.4% 3.5%


28.9 49.2 587

34.1 49.0 696

37.8 51.2 738

35.9 49.2 729

30.8 45.1 685

32.9 46.5 708

35.7 48.4 739

37.6 49.4 760

38.7 48.9 792

38.6 46.8 826

3.3% -0.6% 3.9%


12.5 24.0 521

15.2 24.0 633

16.6 25.3 656

16.0 24.9 645

16.6 25.3 656

17.5 25.8 679

18.5 26.1 708

19.8 27.2 729

21.2 27.9 759

22.7 28.8 790

6.9% 2.1% 4.7%



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Table 3.3b

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Application

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


10.3 19.4 531

12.3 20.0 615

13.2 21.1 628

13.1 20.7 631

13.4 21.1 638

14.2 21.5 660

15.3 22.1 689

15.9 22.4 710

16.5 22.3 739

17.8 23.1 770

6.3% 2.0% 4.2%


275.4 1,395.5 197

329.4 1,433.2 230

350.7 1,474.9 238

366.0 1,496.3 245

375.7 1,502.4 250

392.4 1,516.3 259

416.6 1,541.2 270

437.4 1,570.9 278

468.3 1,614.5 290

499.4 1,652.5 302

6.8% 1.9% 4.8%

3,793.9

4,129.6 8.8%

4,499.6 9.0%

4,763.0 5.9%

5,007.8 5.1%

5,427.5 8.4%

5,969.7 10.0%

6,530.7 9.4%

7,379.5 13.0%

8,310.4 12.6%

9.1%


4.8%


Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

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Figure 3.6

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Application - Market Breakdown and Growth 1,600

2013 Revenues

15%

1,400

Growth 2014 10% Growth 2015

1,000 800

5%

600 400

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

1,200

0%

200 0

-5%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 3.7

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Application - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 22% Compressors

Conveyors

18%

Growth (%)


Fans

Pumps 6%


2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


2016

2017

2018

Jul-14 119

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Table 3.4

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Discrete, Process & Other Manufacturing Sectors

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


2,391.9 7,872.0 304

2,610.6 8,250.4 316

2,870.4 8,714.7 329

3,050.0 9,086.8 336

3,216.2 9,418.2 341

3,513.5 9,850.8 357

3,895.9 10,370.8 376

4,232.5 10,878.8 389

4,781.3 11,516.3 415

5,381.6 12,157.2 443

9.4% 4.9% 4.3%


1,153.7 2,475.2 466

1,246.4 2,586.9 482

1,353.9 2,687.4 504

1,426.9 2,763.0 516

1,496.0 2,825.5 529

1,605.3 2,907.1 552

1,744.2 3,027.6 576

1,943.3 3,241.6 600

2,206.2 3,494.6 631

2,495.7 3,754.1 665

9.0% 4.7% 4.0%


248.2 704.3 352

272.6 757.3 360

275.4 769.2 358

286.0 786.2 364

295.6 801.5 369

308.7 820.7 376

329.6 849.8 388

354.8 887.6 400

392.0 947.0 414

433.1 1,007.4 430

6.4% 4.1% 2.2%

3,793.9

4,129.6 8.8%

4,499.6 9.0%

4,763.0 5.9%

5,007.8 5.1%

5,427.5 8.4%

5,969.7 10.0%

6,530.7 9.4%

7,379.5 13.0%

8,310.4 12.6%

9.1%


4.8%


Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

120

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 3.5a

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Discrete Sector

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18

138.6 285.2 486

152.0 306.0 497

160.2 310.9 515

158.7 308.6 514

162.5 313.6 518

178.2 321.4 555

198.6 335.5 592

215.0 353.0 609

243.7 376.9 647

280.4 410.0 684

8.1% 4.1% 3.9%

832.3 3,848.9 216

879.8 4,035.6 218

1,005.5 4,278.3 235

1,081.6 4,449.5 243

1,147.4 4,649.6 247

1,234.2 4,854.9 254

1,353.0 5,102.4 265

1,472.7 5,343.2 276

1,665.9 5,646.6 295

1,892.3 5,958.9 318

9.6% 5.0% 4.4%


60.6 101.7 596

71.7 107.0 670

79.8 113.8 701

84.6 116.7 725

88.7 120.3 738

98.0 127.9 766

106.6 132.0 808

116.0 137.8 842

128.8 144.9 889

142.2 151.9 936

9.9% 4.6% 5.1%


38.3 51.0 751

45.6 51.0 894

50.2 53.6 936

49.3 52.2 944

48.8 51.8 943

52.7 54.0 976

58.0 57.0 1,018

62.3 59.4 1,049

68.4 62.5 1,093

74.8 65.6 1,139

7.7% 2.9% 4.7%


110.8 192.0 577

123.5 203.9 606

133.9 213.9 626

140.0 216.8 645

149.9 224.4 668

162.1 232.6 697

173.7 242.0 718

193.6 258.9 748

212.8 272.8 780

9.8% 4.3% 5.3%

Food, Bev. & Tobacco (DS) Revenues ($M) 442.5 Units (k) 1,389.9 ASP ($) 318

456.6 1,425.1 320

496.7 1,524.4 326

541.5 1,649.4 328

566.9 1,714.8 331

638.0 1,810.4 352

735.3 1,912.7 384

805.2 1,995.8 403

923.2 2,111.1 437

1,043.0 2,214.0 471

10.0% 5.3% 4.4%

Automotive Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($) Commercial HVAC Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)


71.1 136.8 520

79.7 153.0 521

85.6 163.2 525

90.2 170.0 531

96.9 175.7 551

109.7 187.7 585

126.4 206.9 611

143.6 229.0 627

163.9 249.4 657

181.2 263.3 688

11.0% 7.5% 3.2%


164.7 279.0 590

172.5 288.0 599

182.3 294.6 619

202.2 315.0 642

219.9 328.7 669

238.0 333.9 713

263.2 348.4 755

282.2 363.3 777

320.6 385.8 831

364.3 409.7 889

9.2% 4.4% 4.7%

Packaging & Labeling Revenues ($M) 108.8 Units (k) 370.0 ASP ($) 294

123.5 386.0 320

131.4 406.6 323

136.2 394.3 345

146.7 408.7 359

164.4 432.0 381

187.8 463.4 405

212.4 503.8 422

248.1 544.8 455

287.1 594.9 483

11.4% 5.4% 5.7%

Paper & Paperboard Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

142.9 420.6 340

152.2 438.6 347

157.0 448.8 350

169.8 465.8 365

190.3 497.1 383

209.4 522.5 401

225.2 547.3 412

250.3 582.5 430

277.4 618.3 449

8.8% 5.3% 3.4%

129.9 389.9 333


Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

121

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 3.5b

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Discrete Sector

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


8.7 17.3 501

10.4 17.0 612

11.2 17.5 637

10.5 16.4 637

10.2 16.1 635

10.7 16.3 654

10.3 15.3 674

8.6 12.3 694

8.2 11.5 715

7.7 10.5 737

-1.3% -5.4% 4.4%


31.2 31.6 987

38.9 36.0 1,079

46.2 42.1 1,098

48.6 43.2 1,125

48.0 41.5 1,156

50.9 42.7 1,191

54.6 44.3 1,232

57.8 45.7 1,264

62.7 47.6 1,318

67.9 49.4 1,375

9.0% 5.1% 3.7%


2.7 7.6 361

3.3 8.0 412

3.6 8.4 431

4.0 9.0 444

4.3 9.3 462

4.7 9.6 485

5.0 9.9 507

5.3 10.2 520

5.3 9.7 543

5.7 10.1 567

8.6% 3.3% 5.1%


37.5 92.0 408

41.8 96.9 431

44.1 114.6 385

47.2 117.8 401

50.2 119.3 421

54.8 124.1 442

59.6 131.8 452

67.8 142.2 477

77.3 155.3 498

10.6% 6.7% 3.7%


9.7 29.8 324

11.9 30.0 397

12.7 33.6 377

13.1 34.6 379

14.1 35.9 394

15.1 37.3 405

16.3 38.9 418

17.1 39.8 429

18.6 41.5 448

20.0 42.7 468

8.4% 4.1% 4.2%


87.0 168.0 518

90.9 170.8 532

86.3 163.6 528

93.2 168.8 552

95.4 171.2 557

98.8 175.5 563

101.2 178.1 568

113.2 184.5 614

127.9 192.9 663

6.9% 2.4% 4.3%


79.4 241.9 328

92.6 251.0 369

98.2 264.9 371

102.5 279.0 367

105.7 280.1 377

119.3 300.8 397

134.0 323.2 415

145.4 341.6 426

159.4 359.0 444

174.6 377.2 463

9.2% 5.1% 3.9%


16.4 57.8 283

19.6 59.0 332

21.6 62.5 346

20.1 61.8 325

20.6 62.5 330

22.2 63.9 347

23.9 65.8 363

25.2 67.5 373

27.2 69.7 390

29.2 71.9 407

6.7% 2.4% 4.1%


74.3 225.0 330

76.8 230.1 334

85.6 246.1 348

85.2 240.5 354

91.5 245.1 373

97.8 251.3 389

104.2 260.9 399

112.5 269.8 417

115.8 266.0 435

6.8% 2.9% 3.8%

3,895.9 10.9%

4,232.5 8.6%

4,781.3 13.0%

5,381.6 12.6%

9.4%

10,878.8 11,516.3 12,157.2 4.9% 5.9% 5.6%

4.9%


2,391.9

2,610.6 9.1%

2,870.4 10.0%

3,050.0 6.3%

3,216.2 5.4%

3,513.5 9.2%


7,872.0

8,250.4 4.8%

8,714.7 5.6%

9,086.8 4.3%

9,418.2 3.6%

9,850.8 10,370.8 4.6% 5.3%

Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

122

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 3.8

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Discrete Sector - Market Breakdown and Growth 1,600

20%

2013 Revenues

1,400

Growth 2014

15%

Growth 2015

1,000

10%

800

5%

600

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

1,200

400 0% 200 0

-5%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 3.9

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Discrete Sector - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 22%

Commercial HVAC Conveyors

Growth (%)

18%


14%

Food, Bev. & Tobacco (DS)

10%

Machine Tools

Mining (DS)

6%


2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


2016

2017

2018

Jul-14 123

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 3.6

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Process Sector

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18

66.6 201.5 331

85.7 209.0 410

90.7 213.2 425

99.3 234.3 424

108.9 241.1 452

116.0 253.5 458

125.7 269.8 466

135.8 284.7 477

147.0 303.4 485

159.2 324.0 491

10.2% 5.4% 4.5%

Food, Bev. & Tobacco (PS) Revenues ($M) 127.8 Units (k) 419.5 ASP ($) 305

136.4 436.0 313

150.0 452.5 331

165.2 462.0 358

183.1 497.7 368

207.7 527.5 394

235.1 558.2 421

262.5 593.4 442

297.8 629.3 473

334.7 661.0 506

11.3% 5.2% 5.8%


84.3 141.5 596

90.3 146.0 618

96.3 150.5 640

97.9 151.1 648

103.2 154.8 667

106.4 154.9 687

110.9 156.8 708

118.8 163.0 729

133.5 177.8 751

150.3 194.4 773

6.6% 3.6% 2.9%


65.7 85.3 770

72.2 88.0 820

91.7 100.7 911

117.7 108.1 1,089

110.5 104.5 1,057

111.1 104.1 1,068

113.0 104.7 1,079

119.7 109.9 1,089

131.7 119.7 1,100

140.6 126.5 1,111

8.8% 4.5% 4.2%


310.6 503.1 617

323.2 510.3 633

346.5 544.4 636

351.1 555.1 633

367.9 556.9 661

395.4 570.0 694

439.0 602.7 728

504.9 660.3 765

586.8 723.9 811

682.9 794.7 859

9.1% 5.2% 3.7%


69.2 150.6 459

75.7 162.0 467

82.2 173.4 474

85.7 175.9 487

87.8 178.6 492

91.3 178.5 511

95.6 179.8 532

103.8 187.7 553

115.5 198.9 581

128.0 209.9 610

7.1% 3.8% 3.2%


125.5 213.6 587

136.3 217.7 626

144.3 228.7 631

148.1 233.9 633

162.9 244.1 667

178.1 257.9 691

200.3 280.0 715

235.2 310.9 756

274.2 343.8 797

9.3% 5.7% 3.4%


37.4 36.6 1,023

42.7 39.6 1,077

40.2 38.8 1,036

40.7 37.5 1,085

42.3 37.4 1,129

43.6 37.2 1,174

48.2 39.5 1,221

51.4 40.5 1,270

53.4 40.8 1,308

5.8% 2.8% 2.9%

14.2 30.9 460

16.3 33.0 494

18.4 35.1 524

20.3 37.5 541

23.2 37.3 623

23.6 36.8 639

23.8 36.2 657

25.3 37.4 674

27.0 38.6 698

28.7 40.0 719

8.2% 2.9% 5.1%

Water & Wastewater Revenues ($M) 227.4 Units (k) 538.3 ASP ($) 422

242.4 543.0 446

255.4 547.7 466

260.2 550.9 472

275.3 562.5 489

301.7 587.4 514

332.4 617.9 538

374.6 674.5 555

428.1 734.5 583

489.0 796.9 614

8.9% 4.5% 4.2%


41.3 209.3 197

43.7 212.5 206

45.0 220.7 204

47.3 220.9 214

47.0 212.7 221

46.9 206.4 227

49.5 211.3 234

52.4 217.3 241

54.7 222.1 246

5.9% 3.5% 2.4%


Rubber & Plastics (PS) Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)


1,153.7

1,246.4 8.0%

1,353.9 8.6%

1,426.9 5.4%

1,496.0 4.8%

1,605.3 7.3%

1,744.2 8.7%

1,943.3 11.4%

2,206.2 13.5%

2,495.7 13.1%

9.0%


2,475.2

2,586.9 4.5%

2,687.4 3.9%

2,763.0 2.8%

2,825.5 2.3%

2,907.1 2.9%

3,027.6 4.1%

3,241.6 7.1%

3,494.6 7.8%

3,754.1 7.4%

4.7%


Jul-14 124

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 3.10

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Process Sector - Market Breakdown and Growth 400

15%

2013 Revenues

350 300

Growth 2014

10%

Growth 2015

200

5%

150 100

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

250

0%

50 0

-5%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 3.11

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Process Sector - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 30%

Chemicals

Growth (%)

25% 20%

Food, Bev. & Tobacco (PS)

15%

Mining (PS)

10% Pharmaceuticals

5% 0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

-5%

2016

2017

2018

Rubber & Plastics (PS) Total Market

-10%


Jul-14 125

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 3.7

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Other Sector

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


58.0 181.0 320

58.5 188.2 311

60.1 195.8 307

62.3 198.9 313

64.7 200.4 323

67.9 202.4 336

73.1 211.4 346

80.1 225.5 355

90.6 241.1 376

6.1% 4.3% 1.8%


111.9 246.4 454

124.3 265.7 468

126.5 288.7 438

134.7 290.9 463

139.5 299.9 465

145.2 310.4 468

156.6 330.7 474

171.7 354.3 485

192.5 382.8 503

213.2 409.9 520

7.4% 5.8% 1.5%


83.2 292.2 285

90.3 310.6 291

90.4 292.3 309

91.3 299.5 305

93.7 302.7 310

98.8 310.0 319

105.0 316.7 332

110.0 321.9 342

119.4 338.7 352

129.4 356.4 363

5.0% 2.2% 2.7%


248.2

272.6 9.8%

275.4 1.0%

286.0 3.9%

295.6 3.3%

308.7 4.4%

329.6 6.8%

354.8 7.7%

392.0 10.5%

433.1 10.5%

6.4%


704.3

757.3 7.5%

769.2 1.6%

786.2 2.2%

801.5 2.0%

820.7 2.4%

849.8 3.5%

887.6 4.5%

947.0 6.7%

1,007.4 6.4%

4.1%

Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

126

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 3.12

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors 150

8%

2013 Revenues

125

7%

Growth 2014

100

6%

Growth 2015

75

5%

50

4%

25

3%

0

2%

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

By Other Sector - Market Breakdown and Growth

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 3.13

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Other Sector - Market Breakdown and Growth 15%

Building Automation 12%

Growth (%)

Infrastructure 9%

Others

6%

3% Total Market

0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


2016

2017

2018

Jul-14 127

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 3.8

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By IEC v. NEMA

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


3,755.3 10,994.0 342

4,087.5 11,531 354

4,455.2 12,115.3 368

4,718.7 12,578.7 375

4,963.6 12,986.8 382

5,384.4 13,523.3 398

5,925.4 14,193.0 417

6,488.8 14,957.4 434

7,334.3 15,904.8 461

8,263.3 16,865.0 490

9.2% 4.9% 4.1%


38.7 57.5 673

42.1 63.1 666

44.5 56.0 794

44.3 57.3 772

44.2 58.4 756

43.1 55.4 779

44.3 55.2 802

41.9 50.7 826

45.2 53.1 851

47.1 53.7 876

2.2% -0.7% 3.0%

3,793.9

4,129.6 8.8%

4,499.6 9.0%

4,763.0 5.9%

5,007.8 5.1%

5,427.5 8.4%

5,969.7 10.0%

6,530.7 9.4%

7,379.5 13.0%

8,310.4 12.6%

9.1%


4.8%


Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

128

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 3.9

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By IEC Frame Size

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


507.4 5,781.5 88

562.4 6,055.9 93

634.3 6,428.9 99

707.9 6,767.5 105

789.3 7,058.3 112

826.3 7,244.6 114

870.0 7,477.2 116

933.4 7,829.0 119

1,044.7 8,321.6 126

1,135.7 8,779.8 129

9.4% 4.8% 4.4%


832.2 3,411.8 244

904.0 3,617.0 250

986.3 3,746.6 263

1,037.8 3,940.7 263

1,087.0 3,986.1 273

1,220.9 4,231.9 289

1,340.6 4,498.2 298

1,466.6 4,777.9 307

1,687.4 5,112.3 330

1,869.5 5,378.8 348

9.4% 5.2% 4.0%


1,089.9 1,518.2 718

1,194.5 1,571.8 760

1,326.3 1,648.4 805

1,422.1 1,576.5 902

1,522.1 1,648.8 923

1,659.6 1,744.0 952

1,847.8 1,887.1 979

2,007.9 1,988.9 1,010

2,209.3 2,075.1 1,065

2,530.9 2,273.1 1,113

9.8% 4.6% 5.0%


1,024.4 269.2 3,805

1,076.5 272.5 3,950

1,149.9 277.0 4,151

1,193.7 279.8 4,267

1,207.6 279.5 4,321

1,291.9 288.3 4,481

1,455.6 315.4 4,616

1,641.1 345.8 4,746

1,896.7 378.8 5,007

2,174.4 415.2 5,237

8.7% 4.9% 3.6%


279.7 12.7 21,997

324.9 13.5 24,001

332.3 13.7 24,280

331.4 13.6 24,353

332.9 13.5 24,575

360.5 14.0 25,804

386.0 14.5 26,578

412.8 15.2 27,243

464.1 16.2 28,605

517.3 17.4 29,777

7.1% 3.5% 3.4%


21.8 0.55 39,471

25.2 0.65 38,783

26.0 0.64 40,597

25.7 0.59 43,500

24.7 0.57 43,137

25.1 0.57 44,143

25.5 0.57 44,959

26.9 0.58 46,126

32.0 0.67 47,949

35.4 0.73 48,807

5.5% 3.1% 2.4%

3,755.3

4,087.5 8.8%

4,455.2 9.0%

4,718.7 5.9%

4,963.6 5.2%

5,384.4 8.5%

5,925.4 10.0%

6,488.8 9.5%

7,334.3 13.0%

8,263.3 12.7%

9.2%


4.9%


Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

129

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 3.14

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By IEC Frame Size - Market Breakdown and Growth 1,800

14%

2013 Revenues

12%

Growth 2014

10%

Growth 2015

1,600

Revenues ($M)

1,200 1,000

8% 800

600

6%

Growth (%)

1,400

400

4% 200 0

2%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 3.15

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By IEC Frame Size - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 20%

80-100 112-132

15%

Growth (%)

160-225 250-355

10%

400-560 5% 630 & above Total Market

0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

-5%


Jul-14 130

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 3.10

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By NEMA Frame Size

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


9.5 34.5 276

10.0 37.5 268

11.1 29.0 382

10.3 29.3 351

10.3 30.9 333

10.2 29.3 348

10.4 29.0 359

10.0 26.9 370

10.6 28.1 379

11.0 28.3 388

1.6% -2.2% 3.9%


10.5 15.2 687

11.6 16.6 696

12.6 17.8 709

11.9 17.4 683

12.6 17.8 708

12.4 16.9 735

13.2 17.4 762

12.0 15.3 786

12.8 16.1 794

12.9 16.1 802

2.4% 0.6% 1.7%


7.5 5.0 1,489

8.4 5.8 1,460

9.0 6.0 1,500

9.9 6.8 1,464

9.5 6.0 1,588

9.3 5.7 1,635

9.4 5.5 1,717

9.5 5.4 1,765

10.2 5.7 1,800

10.7 5.9 1,818

4.0% 1.8% 2.2%


7.7 2.3 3,401

8.1 2.7 2,970

8.4 2.7 3,078

8.3 3.3 2,476

8.4 3.3 2,540

8.3 3.1 2,657

8.3 3.0 2,743

7.8 2.8 2,825

8.6 2.9 2,938

9.5 3.1 3,020

2.3% 3.6% -1.3%


3.4 0.4 8,372

3.9 0.5 8,094

3.4 0.4 8,070

3.9 0.5 8,168

3.3 0.4 8,254

2.9 0.3 8,633

2.9 0.3 8,911

2.5 0.3 9,179

2.9 0.3 9,362

3.0 0.3 9,643

-1.5% -3.0% 1.6%


0.0 0.0 -

0.0 0.0 -

0.0 0.0 -

0.0 0.0 -

0.0 0.0 -

0.0 0.0 -

0.0 0.0 -

0.0 0.0 -

0.0 0.0 -

0.0 0.0 -


38.7

42.1 8.9%

44.5 5.7%

44.3 -0.4%

44.2 -0.2%

43.1 -2.4%

44.3 2.8%

41.9 -5.5%

45.2 7.9%

47.1 4.3%

2.2%


57.5

63.1 9.9%

56.0 -11.3%

57.3 2.4%

58.4 1.9%

55.4 -5.2%

55.2 -0.2%

50.7 -8.3%

53.1 4.8%

53.7 1.2%

-0.7%

Source: IHS

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Figure 3.16

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By NEMA Frame Size - Market Breakdown and Growth 14.0

10%

2013 Revenues

5%

Growth 2014

12.0

Growth 2015

0%

8.0 6.0

-5%

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

10.0

4.0 -10% 2.0 0.0

-15%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 3.17

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By NEMA Frame Size - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 15% 56-145

10% 182-184

Growth (%)

5% 213-215

0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018 254-326

-5%

364-449 -10%

Total Market

-15%


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Table 3.11

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Sales Channel

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


3,400.7 10,114.2 336

3,712.9 10,623.6 349

4,055.8 11,166.6 363

4,309.0 11,603.7 371

4,548.7 12,009.5 379

4,925.3 12,499.8 394

5,404.5 13,086.9 413

5,898.1 13,742.1 429

6,658.0 14,578.3 457

7,492.9 15,456.1 485

9.2% 4.8% 4.1%


508.7 1,076.2 473

543.8 1,106.0 492

580.1 1,154.1 503

605.0 1,177.5 514

620.3 1,213.6 511

660.6 1,236.1 534

730.8 1,291.5 566

788.6 1,352.1 583

911.3 1,461.6 623

1,053.3 1,583.4 665

8.4% 4.4% 3.9%


2,892.0 9,038.0 320

3,169.1 9,517.7 333

3,475.7 10,012.5 347

3,704.1 10,426.2 355

3,928.4 10,795.9 364

4,264.7 11,263.7 379

4,673.7 11,795.5 396

5,109.6 12,390.0 412

5,746.7 13,116.7 438

6,439.6 13,872.6 464

9.3% 4.9% 4.2%

22.1 44.3 499

24.2 46.0 526

26.0 46.7 557

28.7 49.5 579

30.2 50.1 603

31.1 49.0 635

32.7 48.8 670

34.9 50.6 690

37.0 51.0 724

40.0 51.6 775

6.8% 1.7% 5.0%



356.9 865.4 412

377.4 896.0 421

401.6 928.8 432

408.3 951.3 429

411.6 953.9 432

453.6 999.3 454

514.1 1,081.7 475

577.9 1,183.2 488

663.0 1,295.2 512

752.8 1,375.2 547

8.6% 5.3% 3.2%


207.4 470.8 440

218.0 486.0 449

233.7 503.0 465

238.7 520.0 459

240.0 521.3 460

262.1 540.8 485

288.8 567.8 509

312.6 594.8 526

350.8 635.7 552

396.6 672.0 590

7.5% 4.0% 3.3%


149.5 394.6 379

159.4 410.0 389

167.9 425.8 394

169.6 431.3 393

171.6 432.6 397

191.5 458.4 418

225.4 513.8 439

265.3 588.4 451

312.2 659.5 473

356.2 703.3 507

10.1% 6.6% 3.3%

14.3 27.6 516

15.1 28.9 523

16.2 29.3 554

17.0 31.5 540

17.2 31.6 544

17.5 30.6 572

18.4 30.8 597

19.7 32.2 613

21.5 33.4 644

24.7 35.9 689

6.3% 2.9% 3.3%

3,793.9

4,129.6 8.8%

4,499.6 9.0%

4,763.0 5.9%

5,007.8 5.1%

5,427.5 8.4%

5,969.7 10.0%

6,530.7 9.4%

7,379.5 13.0%

8,310.4 12.6%

9.1%

15,008.1 15,957.9 16,918.7 5.3% 6.3% 6.0%

4.8%




11,594.5 12,171.2 12,636.0 4.9% 5.0% 3.8%

13,045.2 13,578.6 14,248.2 3.2% 4.1% 4.9%

Source: IHS

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Figure 3.18

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Sales Channel - Market Breakdown and Growth 4,500

20%

2013 Revenues

4,000 Growth 2014

15%

Growth 2015

3,000

2,500 10%

2,000

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

3,500

1,500 5%

1,000 500

0

0%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 3.19

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Sales Channel - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 18%

Direct to End-user

16%

Direct to OEM

14%

Direct to Sys Int

Growth (%)

12%

10%

Dist. to Enduser

8% Dist. to OEM 6% Dist. to Sys Int

4%

2%

Total Market

0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


2016

2017

2018

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Table 3.12

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Power Rating

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


1,232.7 6,828.1 181

1,357.5 7,170.7 189

1,459.5 7,433.8 196

1,555.1 7,586.2 205

1,682.5 7,891.6 213

1,834.0 8,271.1 222

1,987.7 8,703.1 228

2,232.1 9,228.8 242

2,524.7 9,788.5 258

10.1% 4.8% 5.0%

2.25-3.75kW (3-5HP) Revenues ($M) 903.8 Units (k) 3,393.6 ASP ($) 266

954.9 3,486.7 274

1,045.2 3,668.2 285

1,100.1 3,818.4 288

1,180.0 4,039.7 292

1,294.3 4,206.0 308

1,454.1 4,416.2 329

1,601.9 4,647.1 345

1,821.2 4,951.7 368

2,063.7 5,261.7 392

9.6% 5.0% 4.4%

5.62-7.5kW (7.5-10HP) Revenues ($M) 653.5 Units (k) 842.2 ASP ($) 776

718.9 889.4 808

750.9 911.7 824

789.8 950.6 831

840.6 979.3 858

932.0 1,024.8 909

1,024.6 1,081.3 948

1,111.5 1,146.9 969

1,282.1 1,241.8 1,032

1,429.8 1,301.7 1,098

9.1% 5.0% 3.9%

11.25-37.5kW (15-50HP) Revenues ($M) 620.0 Units (k) 331.6 ASP ($) 1,870

644.1 340.1 1,894

706.3 366.8 1,926

756.5 380.3 1,989

769.3 387.1 1,987

834.9 402.8 2,073

912.6 423.0 2,158

983.3 446.4 2,203

1,071.1 466.7 2,295

1,216.0 495.1 2,456

7.8% 4.6% 3.1%


209.4 35.9 5,840

224.5 38.1 5,886

235.1 37.8 6,216

239.0 38.0 6,282

254.6 38.9 6,543

279.8 41.1 6,805

331.9 47.8 6,941

371.7 50.0 7,427

392.9 51.4 7,650

8.1% 4.7% 3.2%


257.7 12.1 21,346

284.4 13.1 21,690

293.0 12.5 23,407

300.6 12.5 24,049

308.6 12.3 25,033

346.1 13.3 26,034

382.2 14.4 26,555

450.8 16.3 27,723

510.2 17.5 29,109

8.1% 3.4% 4.6%


111.8 2.3 49,697

130.9 2.6 50,136

128.9 2.5 51,976

123.2 2.3 53,794

120.6 2.2 54,992

118.5 2.1 56,340

132.2 2.3 57,355

150.5 2.5 59,093

173.1 2.8 61,778

6.0% 2.6% 3.3%


4,129.6 8.8%

4,499.6 9.0%

4,763.0 5.9%

5,007.8 5.1%

5,427.5 8.4%

5,969.7 10.0%

6,530.7 9.4%

7,379.5 13.0%

8,310.4 12.6%

9.1%


4.8%

3,793.9

Source: IHS

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Figure 3.20

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Power Rating - Market Breakdown and Growth 1,800

2013 Revenues

15%

1,600

Growth 2014

1,400

10%

Growth 2015

1,000

5% 800

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

1,200

600 0%

400 200

0

-5%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 3.21

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Power Rating - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 0.75-1.5kW (1-2HP)

20%

2.25-3.75kW (3-5HP)

15%

Growth (%)

5.62-7.5kW (7.5-10HP)

11.25-37.5kW (15-50HP)

10%

45-112.5kW (60-150HP)

5%

150-375kW (200-500HP) 0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018


-5%


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Table 3.13

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Enclosure Type

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18

3,486.8 10,340.3 337

3,802.1 10,864.6 350

4,136.4 11,407.2 363

4,382.7 11,847.8 370

4,614.9 12,248.3 377

5,013.9 12,762.2 393

5,530.3 13,403.7 413

6,061.4 14,127.0 429

6,875.3 15,052.3 457

7,768.0 15,984.9 486

9.3% 5.0% 4.1%


3,549.0 10,442.6 340

3,849.1 10,958.3 351

4,057.8 11,246.7 361

4,260.3 11,650.1 366

4,637.9 12,144.1 382

5,126.8 12,767.7 402

5,629.2 13,467.2 418

6,399.9 14,376.2 445

7,244.1 15,293.5 474

9.3% 4.8% 4.2%

223.0 347.3 642

253.1 422.0 600

287.4 448.9 640

324.9 601.1 540

354.6 598.2 593

376.0 618.0 608

403.5 636.0 634

432.2 659.8 655

475.4 676.1 703

524.0 691.4 758

10.0% 7.9% 1.9%


19.9 51.7 385

21.0 52.9 397

22.3 54.5 409

23.6 57.0 414

24.1 54.3 444

24.9 53.3 468

26.5 53.9 491

28.1 55.5 506

30.7 57.5 533

33.5 59.4 563

5.9% 1.6% 4.3%

TENV: non-hazardous Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

16.3 43.0 380

17.3 44.1 392

18.1 45.1 401

19.0 46.8 406

19.1 43.4 441

19.7 42.5 464

21.0 43.1 487

22.0 43.9 501

23.8 45.1 527

25.7 46.1 556

5.1% 0.8% 4.3%


3.6 8.7 407

3.7 8.8 420

4.2 9.4 447

4.6 10.2 451

5.0 10.9 455

5.2 10.8 482

5.5 10.8 506

6.1 11.6 522

6.9 12.4 554

7.8 13.3 587

9.1% 4.8% 4.1%

64.1 203.7 315

68.9 211.0 327

76.7 221.7 346

80.8 230.9 350

83.4 234.1 356

88.5 238.8 370

94.6 245.5 385

101.1 254.6 397

111.3 266.6 417

122.6 278.3 440

7.5% 3.5% 3.8%

Other: non-hazardous Revenues ($M) 223.1 Units (k) 455.7 ASP ($) 490

237.6 466.0 510

264.2 487.9 542

275.9 500.2 552

285.4 508.5 561

300.2 524.4 573

318.3 545.1 584

340.0 570.9 596

362.3 581.5 623

386.3 596.2 648

6.3% 3.0% 3.2%

4,129.6 8.8%

4,499.6 9.0%

4,763.0 5.9%

5,007.8 5.1%

5,427.5 8.4%

5,969.7 10.0%

6,530.7 9.4%

7,379.5 13.0%

8,310.4 12.6%

9.1%

15,008.1 15,957.9 16,918.7 5.3% 6.3% 6.0%

4.8%


TEFC: hazardous Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($) TENV: Total

ODP: non-hazardous Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)


3,793.9


11,594.5 12,171.2 12,636.0 4.9% 5.0% 3.8%

13,045.2 13,578.6 14,248.2 3.2% 4.1% 4.9%

Source: IHS

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Figure 3.22

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Enclosure Type - Market Breakdown and Growth 5,000

12%

2013 Revenues

4,500 4,000

Growth 2014

10%

3,000

Growth 2015

8%

2,500

2,000

6%

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

3,500

1,500 1,000

4%

500 0

2%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 3.23

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Enclosure Type - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 15%

TEFC: nonhazardous TEFC: hazardous

12%

Growth (%)

TENV: nonhazardous 9% TENV: hazardous

ODP: nonhazardous

6%

Other: nonhazardous

3%

Total Market

0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


2016

2017

2018

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Table 3.14

The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors Shares by Revenue

Company Name

2013 Share

1.

Siemens

17.0%

2

ABB

12.0%

3

Leroy Somer

5.5%

4

ATB Group

3.5%

5.

WEG

3.5%

6.

LEZ Ruselprom

3.0%

7.

VEM

3.0%

8.

Cantoni

2.5%

9.

Arҫelik

2.0%

Others

48.0%

Note 1: The market in 2013 was estimated to be worth $5,007.8 million. Note 2: Market shares were rounded ot the nearest 0.5%.

Source: IHS

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Chapter Four

The Americas market for low-voltage motors  A slowdown to single-digit growth in 2013 for the region  Shale gas renaissance in North America  US Department of Energy includes more motor types in energy efficiency regulations in 2014  Exempt IE1 and IE2 low-voltage motors still significant in IE3 markets in 2013

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4.0 Introduction This chapter presents and analyzes consolidated market statistics for the Americas market for industrial low voltage integral horsepower motors with power ratings at or above 0.75kW/1HP. The statistics presented in this chapter are provide market sizes in terms of both revenues in millions of US dollars (represented as $M), and unit shipments in thousands (represented as ‘k’ units). The base year for the analyses is 2013, with forecasts from 2014 through 2018. Historical market sizes are provided for 2009 through 2012, for reference.

4.1 The Americas market for low-voltage motors The Americas market for LV motors was estimated to have been worth $5,047 million in 2013, with over 11.4 million units shipped during the year. The Americas region has rebounded quickly from the global recession when the region’s LV motor market experienced an estimated contraction of more than 21% in revenues during 2009. After a strong rebound in 2010 of over 22% revenue growth, the Americas LV motor market continued healthy growth in 2011 of 14.0%, followed by 14.1% growth in 2012. In 2013, the region grew at an estimated 9.2% revenue growth over 2012, accompanied by solid unit growth of 3.8%. Marking four years of consecutive strong growth in the post-recession era, the Americas market is currently benefitting from a strengthening US and Brazilian economy, and a shale gas renaissance due to “fracking” technologies that allows extraction of oil from previously hard-to-reach areas in the Earth’s crust. Also, signs of the return of the US manufacturing base have also fuelled new motor sales. The end of 2013 marked the US market’s third full year in the country’s regulated transition to IE3/NEMA Premium LV motors, while Brazil is in its fourth full year in the country’s regulated transition to IE2 LV motors. It is important to consider the revenue growth in the region was greatly enhanced by inorganic demand resulting from the US and Brazil’s ongoing transition to the next higher efficiency class of LV motor. As in all regions, the efficiency transition to higher efficiency LV motors has occurred slowly in the Americas. Evidence of this is conclusive in the form of reported data showing that in 2012 approximately 25% of a major US manufacturer LV motor product mix was still generated from IE1/Below EPAct motors. Below EPAct motors were required by law to be phased-out of manufacturers’ product lines starting in 1997. Canada’s official transition to IE3/NEMA Premium efficiency LV motors, regulated by the National Research Council (NRC), occurred on January 1 st, 2012. At the time this report was published, no official announcements have been made by any countries in the Americas concerning a future transition to higher efficiency LV motors. For the 2014 edition of this report, coverage of several smaller, but significant Latin American countries have been added to the country-level profile. Thusly, the market size for ‘Rest of Latin America’ has been reduced significantly from the 2013 edition. Most, if not all of the countries added are emerging economies with growing oil and gas and mining sectors. At the time this report was published, no energy efficiency regulations for LV motors existed in these countries, and there are not any such regulatory developments on the horizon. These countries can all be characterized similarly as they are primarily end-user markets with mostly IE1 motors being sold into the process sectors. The OEM/machine builder segment is almost non-existent in the region outside of the US, Brazil, and Mexico.

4.1.1 The Americas market for low-voltage motors by efficiency class Table 4.1 & Figures 4.1, 4.2 and 4.3

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The slow transition to IE3/NEMA Premium in the US LV motor market is a result of loopholes that exist in the current regulations that are being exploited, and legally allowing LV motors of lesser efficiency classes to be sold. Efforts by a group of US LV motor manufacturers and equipment providers, called the Motor Coalition, have addressed closing some of these loopholes in new proposed regulations that were brought before the US Department of Energy (US DOE) in mid-2014, with enactment of these new regulations expected in 2015. The same efforts (to close regulatory loopholes) are being addressed in the European Union (EU) as the EU has experienced the same issues in its transition to IE2 LV motors. IE1 LV motors have been on the rapid decline in the Americas, as there are only a handful of small South American countries that have no energy efficiency regulations where these motors can legally be sold. However, as mentioned, IE1 motors are still penetrating markets that have officially shifted to IE2 (Brazil) and IE3 (USA & Canada). During the year, revenues for this motor type accounted for 5.4% of the Americas market, down from over 10.5% in 2012. Low-digit growth can still be expected in Latin American countries with no energy efficiency regulations, yet having strong mining and oil and gas sectors. Due to the continual erosion of the IE1 market in the Americas, IHS as forecast this segment will significantly underperform against the market average of 12.6% CAGR, generating a negative CAGR of 13.2% for revenues through the end of the forecast period. IE2 LV motors accounted for over 18% of revenues in the Americas LV motor market in 2013, generating $928 million, with the majority of these LV motors being shipped to the Brazilian market with a significant portion being sold into IE3 markets of the US, Canada and Mexico. The IE2 market is expected to further decline through 2015 as the US is expected to have mostly completed its transition to IE3/NEMA Premium. It is interesting to note that while the IE2 market winds down in the North American market, it is simultaneously gaining momentum in the Brazilian market. The IE2 market is expected to continue to decline until 2015, at which point it will experience growth in tune with the Brazilian demand for IE2 motors. However, due to ongoing IE2 downturn in largest market in the region (the US), this market segment has a forecast CAGR of negative 1.6% for revenues through the end of the forecast period. In response to the US transition date of December 19 th, 2010 to IE3/NEMA Premium, revenues began to escalate in 2011, with this market segment more than tripling in terms of revenues and units by the end of 2013 from 2011 levels. As mentioned, the US market is officially IE3/NEMA Premium, but significant portions of the US market are still allocated to the two lower efficiency classes of motors in 2013. As such, this segment accounted for $3,307 million, or 65% of LV motor sales in the region, and 62% of units shipped during that year. IE3/NEMA Premium motors are sold into end-user markets of other countries than the US & Canada, but in insignificant quantities. The IE3/NEMA Premium market is forecast to be the fastest growing LV motor efficiency segment in the Americas, outperforming the market average of 12.6%, with a forecast CAGR for revenues of over 54% through 2018. IE4 (Super Premium Efficiency) have been officially defined by the IEC in early 2014, however, there has been no official designation of this efficiency class in North American standards bodies, including NEMA. LV motors generated $133 million in revenues, or representing almost 2.6% of the Americas market, and 1% of units shipped. The majority of these IE4 LV motors were neodymium-based permanent magnet (PM) motors from leading suppliers Baldor (now owned by ABB), Leroy Somer and Lafert Metric Motors. The majority of these LV motors sold into the US market are between 0.75kW–6.7kW (1–5HP). However, Baldor produces the highest power rated IE4 motors sold into the region. Brazil’s WEG introduced its neodymium-based IE4 product line into the US market in mid-2012. HICO, Hyosung Corporation’s American brand, will introduce a neodymium-based and copper rotor IE4 motor to the US market in late 2012. ABB’s Synchronous Reluctance (SynRM™) IE4 LV motor, which uses no magnets, has been introduced into the Western European market in late 2012, but has yet to be introduced to the Americas market. New ferrite magnet technologies that achieve IE4 levels of efficiency are also making headway in the Americas market. NovaTorque’s PremiumPlus+ LV motor is produced in the 0.75kW–4kW (1–3HP) range by the privately held company in California. NovaTorque’s proprietary design is basically a brushless DC motor, more specifically, an electrically commutated permanent magnet motor (ECPM). NovaTorque recently gained significant market traction with its first major partnering with a major US fan supplier, and is now endeavoring to expand its offering to include 5, 7.5 and 10HP (6.6, 10, and 13.3kW) power ratings. IE4 motors are primarily used for light motion applications such as Compressors, Pumps, Fans, Elevators & Lifts and air separation.

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The IE4 market in the Americas is expected to outperform the market average, generating a CAGR of 23% for revenues through the remainder of the forecast period. ‘Other, non-regulated’ motors made up the remainder of the region’s LV motor revenues and are expected to underperform the market average at 10.3% CAGR for revenues. Despite the overall transition to AC induction motors on a global scale resulting in the slow erosion of the global DC market, the Americas region remains the largest market for DC motors in the world. This is especially true in the US, where antiquated DC motor systems are still present in steel rolling and pulp and paper mills and other “mill motor” sectors that have a sustained a replacement market for legacy DC machinery. The DC market in the Americas is estimated to be worth $62 million in 2013, down from an estimated $103 million in the previous year. Baldor and GE are two of the largest suppliers of integral horsepower DC machines in the Americas market, most of which are brushless DC motors supplied to the US market. However, as in other regions, the DC motor market is expected to continue to decline sharply in the Americas during the forecast period. TMEIC and other LV motor manufacturers have been aggressive in addressing the DC-to-AC “mill motor” market in the US and other regions by developing a ‘drop-in’ AC induction product designed to DC specifications, which results in minimal redesign of the entire motor system. IHS expects the efficiency transitions occurring slowly in the Americas market to be in its advanced stages by the end of 2014, as historical data shows that efficiency transitions to the next higher efficiency class of LV motors usually takes 3-5 years. However, IHS does not expect that a 100% transition to the next higher efficiency class will ever be realistically achieved. It can be assumed that all efficiency classes will coexist to some degree in each market regardless of the efficiency regulations in place.

4.1.2 The Americas market for low-voltage motors by region Tables 4.2 & Figures 4.4 and 4.5

United States The US recovery lost some momentum in 2013 because of massive fiscal tightening. The drag from fiscal policy will probably be far less significant over the coming year, especially in light of the mid-December budget deal made by the US Congress. This deal will allow the underlying strengths of the economy to become more visible. These include continued strength in housing and the ripple effects of the unconventional oil and gas boom from tapping shale deposits. IHS also expects that the pace of capital spending will gain momentum, making it one of the engines of growth in 2014. IHS currently forecasts real GDP growth to accelerate from 1.8% in 2013 to 2.5% in 2014. The agricultural sector is among the most capital-intensive in the world, as the grain baskets of the Midwest help make the economy the largest cereal producer in the world. There are substantial mineral deposits of almost all key minerals within the country, but not enough to ensure self-sufficiency. Aluminum is the most substantial mined product, accounting for about 17% of the global total. Iron, copper, lead, silver, and gold deposits are other major mining products. The United States is the world's third-largest oil producer and largest single energy market. US oil production meets around 40% of total domestic oil demand, which accounts for more than 25% of global consumption of oil, natural gas, coal, and nuclear energy, and ranks first in the global production of coal and nuclear energy. The country has the world's largest reserves of coal, which provide more than 50% of its electricity generation needs. Within the oil & natural gas sector, pipeline infrastructure and LNG ports and tankers represent growth opportunities, with MV motor sales into pipelines projected to occur early in the forecast period. The growth of MV motor sales into LNG is dependent on pipelines reaching the coasts of the United States and Canada, as this dynamic would be expected to result in increased sales into pipeline applications such as compressors and pumps for natural gas and oil transportation. Although this report covers only IHP LV motors, it is interesting to note that in 2010, the US Department of Energy (US DOE) extended the IHP LV motor efficiency standards established by the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) to fractional horsepower motors (FHP). Fractional horsepower motors are <0.75kW/1HP. Single and three-phase general purpose FHP AC motors with frame sizes of 42, 48 and 56 between ¼ and 0.75kW/1HP were included in the legislation and are expected to be built to this standard by March 9, 2015.

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The US LV motor market experienced good growth of 8.1% in 2013 after robust growth of 16.6% in 2012. The US market is estimated to have been worth $3,447 million in 2013, with 7,158k units sold. Growth rates for this market are expected to be strong for the remainder of the forecast period, as US manufacturing seems to be recovering, and the shale gas renaissance is expected to transition the US into a major exporter of fossil fuels. With a forecast revenue CAGR of 12.2% and units shipped CAGR of 5.5%, the US LV motor market is predicted to perform slightly below the region’s average. It is important to keep in mind that the US is a mature motor market where the most expensive motors in the world are sold.

Brazil The Brazilian economy is now being driven by sizeable growth in investment and more modest growth in consumption. The latest IHS forecast for Brazil is for GDP to expand 3.0–3.3% in 2014 before accelerating to 3.6–3.9% in 2015. The world’s economic environment is not helping Brazil, and exports, which are projected to grow only moderately, are not expected to drive growth. Tax breaks and subsidies to stimulate consumption and tariffs to restrict competition from abroad supported a short-term acceleration of economic activity in late 2013. The small acceleration of the Brazilian economy in the last quarter of 2012 and early 2013 increased Brazil’s rate of expansion from 0.9% to just above 2% in 2013. IHS does not anticipate a surge in consumption, although some momentum is expected to be gained in June and July of 2014 as the World Cup takes place in Brazil. IHS forecasts GDP growth to be 3.1% in 2014. The country has vast mineral resources and is the world's second-largest tin producer, third-largest iron ore producer, and seventh -largest gold producer. It is also a leading producer of bauxite, manganese, nickel, and uranium. Other natural resources include timber, water, and oil and gas. Brazil is the world's largest coffee producer as well as a leading producer of sugar cane, cocoa, oranges, beef, corn, and soybeans. Future growth in this sector will likely increase pressure for new investments in infrastructure, such as ports and roads. Brazil boasts the largest vehicle market in South America and is the largest energy market in South America, already having achieved oil self-sufficiency that resulted in reduced dependence on Bolivian gas imports. It plans to increase domestic gas production as well as the share of natural gas in the national energy mix. The opening of the upstream sector to foreign investment should help to boost oil and gas production in the next few years. The projected growth in Brazilian energy demand will continue to be the principal motivation behind closer regional energy integration. After holding no new licensing rounds since 2008, Brazil restarted auctioning fields in 2013. Brazil is considered an emerging economy. It experienced a boom in the years leading up to the global economic downturn. However, real GDP growth in the country slowed considerably in 2011 to 2.7%. The country is heavily vested in its oil & gas and mining industry sectors that are characterized by the use of large motors with high horsepower. The Brazilian market is heavily nationalistic in nature, with national brand WEG dominating in terms of market share. WEG is heavily incentivized by the Brazilian government, and has recently raised import tariffs from 15% to 20% creating difficulties for outside suppliers trying to enter the Brazilian market. The Brazilian LV motor market experienced slightly lower growth in 2013 of 5.0% after modest growth in 2012 at 6.0%. The Brazilian market is estimated to have been worth $610 million in 2013, with 1,783k units sold. Growth rates are expected to recover to strong growth throughout the forecast period. With a forecast revenue CAGR of 12.9% and units shipped CAGR of 5.4% over the forecast period, the Brazilian LV motor market is predicted to perform above the region’s average.

Canada Although it has enjoyed a strong fiscal position and modest economic growth throughout the past four years, the global recession has weighed heavily on Canada. Despite external difficulties, Canada has continued to prosper thanks to its close integration with the United States and its vast natural resources. Decelerating growth in emerging markets has become a major cause for concern, as volatile commodity prices have continued to take their toll on Canadian producers. Canada’s economic outlook is vulnerable to waning global demand, with the Bank of Canada committed to responding with appropriate monetary policy in order to support a sustained economic recovery. This, in turn, is expected to boost business confidence and lead to a pickup in non-residential investment. IHS projected GDP growth at just 1.7% for 2013, and forecasts this will accelerate to 2.4% in 2014.

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Canada's natural resources are vast, forming the foundation of the country's primary resource industries. Canada has the secondlargest continuously forested area on earth, is the world's largest exporter of pulp and paper, and is one of the world's largest exporters of agricultural products, particularly of wheat and other grains. As one of the world's mining leaders, Canada produces over 60 metals and minerals at over 800 active mines. Canada ranks as the world's largest producer of potash and uranium, the world's third-largest diamond producer, and is in the top-five for many products including nickel, aluminum, zinc, and cadmium. Oil and natural gas are Canada's largest merchandise exports. The Athabasca oil sands in Alberta are the world's third-largest petroleum reserves, and significant natural gas deposits are exploited in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. Massive amounts of investment have been poured into the Athabasca oil sands, which has led to ever-rising levels of bitumen extraction. Natural gas production is an important feature of western Canada, and offshore drilling for oil and gas have been a boon to the economies of Newfoundland and, to a lesser extent, Nova Scotia. The production of food and beverages accounts for the largest share of manufacturing output, followed by transportation equipment and machinery and equipment. The Canadian LV motor market experienced a strong growth of 17.5% in 2013 after similar robust growth of 18.3% in 2012. Consistent growth in Canada is mainly attributable to the nation’s strong mining sector that was least affected by the global slowdown in the sector during the year. The Canadian market is estimated to have been worth $302 million in 2013, with 441k units sold. Growth rates for this market are expected to remain strong during the forecast period as the country’s vast natural resources are expected to continue to bolster its mining and LNG sectors. With a forecast revenue CAGR of 14.5% and units shipped CAGR of 6.3% over the forecast period, the Canadian LV motor market is predicted to perform well above the region’s average.

Mexico Currently, Mexico continues to follow the US business cycle, and in the medium term, it is expected to show growth stability, but at moderate rates. Economic fundamentals are improving in the United States, particularly in housing, but policy headwinds from Washington are still holding it back for now. IHS expects growth to accelerate from 1.7% in 2013 to 2.5% in 2014, before speeding up to 3.1% in 2015. This is good news for Mexico, especially because the forecast for US industrial output growth calls for 2.6% and 3.6% growth in 2014 and 2015, respectively. Energy reform continues to be a major challenge while much needed oil production is declining rapidly. Currently, operational and security risks are at higher levels, as escalating drug-related violence has taken the center of the political and policy scene in Mexico. Mexico ranks among the top-10 largest oil producers in the world and is one of the main suppliers of crude oil to the United States. Mexican oil production has been trending downwards since 2004, reaching its lowest level in 2010. Financing the investments needed to allow Mexico to transform into a major oil supplier remains a key challenge forcing state oil company PEMEX to take sole responsibility for providing financing for new projects. In contrast, natural gas production increased rapidly between 2004 and 2008. Mexico is the world's eleventh-largest vehicle market and is considered to be hugely important by major global vehicle manufacturers, many of which are expected to continue making hefty investments in the country, such as the local branches of Ford, Volkswagen, and Toyota. Because the importance of the country as an automotive hub has grown on the world stage, the industry has received greater amounts of foreign direct investment, which was directed toward the construction of new plants and the purchase of new equipment. Mexico is not a large consumer of LV motors, despite that fact that many LV motors are manufactured there. The Mexican LV motor market experienced a robust growth of 23.1% in 2013 after modest growth of 6.5% in 2012. The Mexican market is estimated to have been worth $300 million in 2013, with 822k units sold. Growth rates for this market are expected to remain strong during the forecast period as Mexico is slowly establishing itself as an emerging economy. With a forecast revenue CAGR of 12.7% and units shipped CAGR of 5.3% during the forecast period, the Mexican MV motor market is predicted to perform above the region’s average.

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Argentina High inflation, fragile public finances, social polarization, weak institutional framework, and large volatility in commodity prices are currently the major issues in Argentina. The economy posted robust growth in 2010 and 2011; however, 2012 and 2013 showed a major slowdown in economic activity. Fiscal balances are back into negative territory, and the government lacks financing sources to cover an increasing, but still manageable, public deficit. Public-sector deficits will persist even if commodity prices remain relatively high in the short term. To summarize, Argentina has grown at fast rates, despite inadequate policymaking in the past but the economy is facing a reality check, and unless some improvements rapidly materialize, it will not return to a fast growth pace anytime soon. The forecast for industrial production in 2014 has been adjusted downward, from -1.3% to -1.6%, as a result of a slightly worse-than-expected performance in April 2014. The 2014 GDP forecast decline was adjusted downward, from 0.2% to 1.3%, as a result of a larger-than-expected decrease in economic activity in the first quarter of 2014. Argentina is rich in natural resources with a geological and climatic situation particularly suitable for developing forestry, agriculture, mining and fisheries. It also boasts of large petroleum, gas and uranium reserves. Argentina is famous for its agricultural production. With over 54 million head of cattle, Argentina’s beef is renowned around the world. Annual production of cereals and oilseeds exceeds 70 million tons, which makes Argentina one of the main exporters of these products and their derivatives. One of the country's largest sheep grazing regions, which is also one of the largest regions for growing fruit and vegetables, is found in Patagonia. The Andean Mountains provide Argentina with rich mineral deposits. Some of the minerals which are being mined at present are, copper, tin, lead, zinc, gold, silver, and uranium. The main exploitation of copper and gold, Minera de la Alumbrera, in the Province of Catamarca, is an Australian venture. Gas and oil are important resources being increasingly exported to the neighboring countries and to the world market. Together with mining products they account for 15% of total exports. The industrial sector includes manufacturing and construction. Among Argentina’s manufactured goods are processed food, textiles, clothing, metallic and non-metallic mineral products, wood products, paper, pharmaceutical products, chemicals and petrochemical products, aluminum, steel, cars, electrical machinery and appliances, machine tools, turbines, cranes, agriculture machinery, and space and nuclear products. The Argentinian LV motor market experienced strong growth of 11.6% in 2013 after a similar healthy growth of 10.1% in 2012. The Argentinian market is estimated to have been worth $71.6 million in 2013, with 194k units sold. Argentina has yet to establish energy efficiency regulations for LV motors and is assumed to be primarily an end-user market for IE1 motors. Growth rates for this market are expected to remain strong during the forecast period due to growing oil & gas and mining sectors in the country. With a forecast revenue CAGR of 14.6% and units shipped CAGR of 6.5% over the forecast period, the Argentinian LV motor market is predicted to perform above the region’s average.

Chile Chile is a leading emerging market with strong economic fundamentals, a broad network of free-trade deals, and solid GDP growth prospects. Trend growth is a still healthy 4.5% per year on average beyond 2014 into the medium term, under the assumption of global economic recovery and stabilized Chinese domestic demand. Expansion of economic activity is expected to remain moderate amid dissimilar growth dynamics among trading partners. The Chilean economy is anticipated to maintain a moderate growth pace in the short term, mainly because of risks associated with the external outlook. Global economic growth will gradually strengthen in 2014, led by better performances in North America and Western Europe. At IHS, we forecast Chile's economy to expand in the neighborhood of 3.00% (revised down from 3.3%) in 2014 under the current scenario. A faster growth pace at 4.6% will be maintained over the medium term. Mining, a mainstay of the Chilean economy, has been a catalyst for both external commerce and domestic industrial development. Metals account for the highest percentage of mining exports, as Chile is the world’s largest producer and exporter of copper. Copper mines are located in northern Chile and along the Andes of north-central Chile. Copper, molybdenum, iron, nitrates, and other concentrated minerals make up a large part of the total value of national exports. Iron-ore mining in El Tofo and El Romeral, both in north-central Chile, is significant, and manganese, silver and gold, and molybdenum are also mined in this region of the country. Among nonmetallic minerals, sulfur, gypsum, lithium, and limestone are also profitable resources. Nitrate deposits occur in the northern interior desert. However, its economic value in the world market has decreased, but the production of iodine, a by-product of nitrate, is of major importance.

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Chile is rich in natural energy resources and has realizable hydroelectric potential. The steady flow of the Andean rivers has been used by the National Electric Company to produce electricity. The country also has abundant coal and moderate oil and natural gas reserves. Prior to the installation of Chile’s huge hydroelectric system, most of the country’s energy was obtained from soft coal. Oil and natural gas are extracted on Tierra del Fuego and along the northern shore of the Strait of Magellan and are shipped to refineries in central Chile. Production, however, meets only about half of the country’s oil needs. South of the Biobío river, climatic conditions favor the growth of natural forests used for lumber and paneling. Pine for the manufacture of paper and pulp is taken from forests in central Chile and the Biobío region. Pulp and paper mills thrive in the vicinities of the Biobío and Laja rivers. Light industries in Argentina produce appliances, chemical products, food products, textiles and clothing, and construction materials. Larger industrial complexes include the Huachipato iron and steel mill, fish-processing factories, and a petroleum refinery associated with a petrochemical complex. The Chilean LV motor market experienced modest growth of 8.8% in 2013 after good growth of 10.2% in 2012. The Chilean market is estimated to have been worth $74 million in 2013, with 157k units sold. Growth rates for this market are expected to remain strong during the forecast period as Chile is slowly establishing itself as an emerging economy with abundant natural resources within the Americas. No energy efficiency regulations exist in the country, as the majority of motors sold into the enduser markets of Chile are assumed to be IE1. With a forecast revenue CAGR of 15.7% and units shipped CAGR of 6.6% over the forecast period, the Chilean LV motor market is predicted to perform well above the region’s average.

Columbia Colombia's economy is among the most dynamic, diverse, and flexible in the region and has undergone considerable improvement since the beginning of the century. The past administration took advantage of the positive momentum to reduce the country's vulnerability to external shocks by strengthening its fiscal position and improving the public debt profile. Over the medium term, broad policy continuity under the administration of Juan Manuel Santos should underpin healthy growth and further consolidation of the country's institutional framework, strengthening Colombia's position as an investment destination. Although the Colombian economy is growing below potential, its prospects for 2014 are good. Many developed economies grew at better rates during 2013, and oil prices are still at high levels. IHS estimates GDP growth rate in 2014 at 4.7%. Still-strong domestic demand will lead this growth rate. Colombia’s growth outlook is also affected by external factors. Among those affecting Colombia’s growth outlook are the still-weak economy in Europe and the modest economic growth of the United States, which limit the growth across the rest of the world. The performance of these economies affects emerging markets through lower import demand and lower export prices. However, the global outlook for this year is positive. Colombia has plentiful deposits of petroleum, nickel, gold, natural gas, iron ore, silver, coal, platinum, and emeralds. Recently, many new deposits in various regions of the country have been discovered. Colombia’s oil resources added up to about 2.2 billion barrels. A relatively new, huge deposit near Cusiana and Cupiagua, in the eastern planes has a potential of about 1.6 billion cubic feet of liquid natural gas (LNG). Liquid natural gas is only produced for domestic supply in the country. Production is expected to increase considerably due to a government initiative called “Gas for People”. Due to the above mentioned reasons, Colombia is now one of the most important oil producers of Latin America. However, the Chilean government has repeatedly declined to join OPEC for fear of not being able to sustain consistent oil production demanded by OPEC members. Colombia has the largest reserves of coal in Latin America, consisting of high quality bituminous coal and a small amount of metallurgical coal. Due to the discovery of huge coal reserves in the northeastern region of La Guajira, the coal production has gained importance, especially due to its export potential. Almost 80% of the world’s emerald production comes from Colombia. The mining of emeralds, formerly controlled by the government, is now operated by private ownership. National production of nickel is almost exclusively operated by the state owned company Cerromatoso, which is privately managed. Columbia can produce 20,000 tons of nickel per year. The Columbian LV motor market experienced a healthy growth of 11.3% in 2013 after a similar healthy growth of 12.0% in 2012. No energy efficiency regulations exist in the country, as the majority of motors sold into the end-user markets are assumed to be IE1. The Columbian market is estimated to have been worth $31 million in 2013, with 146k units sold. Growth rates for this market are expected to remain steady during the forecast period. With a forecast revenue CAGR of 13.0% and units shipped CAGR of 4.8% over the forecast period, the Columbian LV motor market is predicted to perform slightly above the region’s average.

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Peru The economy of Peru is now characterized by strong growth, coupled with price and exchange-rate stability under the framework of sound macroeconomic management. Still, the country has been unable to tackle its two major economic problems: poverty and unemployment. Peru’s economy showed resilience during the 2008–09 global crisis, posting only a mild recession and then advancing 8.5%, 6.5%, 6.0%, and 5.8% annually over 2010–13. Peru's economic outlook remains positive amid a gradual pickup in global economic growth. The outlook for Peru's GDP growth remains positive. The economy is forecast to grow in the neighborhood of 5.3% in 2014, under the assumption of a gradual global economic recovery and stabilized growth in China. Fixed investment is expected to speed up toward the end of the year, while consumption will grows at a slower pace than overall GDP in 2014. From a supply perspective, a large number of projects in the mining, industrial, and energy sectors, coupled with a dynamic construction sector, will sustain growth under a business-friendly operational environment into the medium term. Export growth will depend on the global economic outlook and commodity prices. Peru has a wealth of mineral resources including copper, iron, lead, zinc, bismuth, phosphates, and manganese that exist in great quantities of high-yield ores. Gold and silver are found extensively, as are other rare metals. Petroleum fields are located along the far north coast and the northeastern part of Amazonia. New mines have been opened, such as the Yanacocha gold-mine complex near Cajamarca, which is now one of the largest producers of gold in the world. The hydroelectric potential of Peru is high, especially on the rivers that flow eastward out of theAndes Mountains to the Amazon Basin. Large power plants have been built on the Santa and Mantaro rivers, and other locations have been selected for future development. Most existing power generation plants, both thermal and hydroelectric, have been connected to a coordinated national electric grid. About three-fourths of the country’s electrical energy is produced from hydroelectric sources. Peru is pursuing the development of LNG to complement its hydroelectric potential. Much of the country’s power production and demand are in the Lima metropolitan area, where there is a heavy concentration of industry. To better utilize the country’s natural resources to achieve self-sustained growth, a strong push has been given to industries such as those producing petroleum, textiles, processed food, steel, cement, fertilizer, and chemicals. The Peruvian LV motor market experienced a healthy growth of 10.0% in 2013 after a similar healthy growth of 10.1% in 2012. The Peruvian market is estimated to have been worth $55 million in 2013, with 157k units sold. The country has established oil and gas and mining sectors. As such, growth rates for this market are expected to remain strong during the forecast period. Peru has not established energy efficiency regulations and is assumed to be an IE1 motor market. With a forecast revenue CAGR of 16.3% and units shipped CAGR of 6.7% over the forecast period, the Peruvian LV motor market is predicted to perform above the region’s average.

Venezuela Venezuela benefits from one of the largest proven oil reserves outside of the Middle East and should be one of South America's wealthiest economies. Although economic performance has naturally tended to follow developments in the international oil markets, the country is prone to economic mismanagement and has experienced banking-sector collapses and an abrupt imposition of currency controls and currency devaluations—among other kinds of crises. Large increases in oil receipts on the back of surging world crude prices have allowed the government to increase public spending, boosting economic growth in the process. Furthermore, energy prices are set to remain high in 2014–18, thus boosting Venezuela's public finances and prospective economic growth in the medium term. Constant government intervention in the economy and poor economic policymaking continue to cloud the medium- and long-term outlooks for Venezuela. Thus, the risk of a severe economic crisis in the not-toodistant future remains high when compared with the region and with the rest of the world. President Nicolas Maduro’s political struggles will continue to prevent much-needed economic reforms and adjustments to the socialist model in the short term. The country's economic woes are expected to continue in the short term; moreover, domestic demand will continue to moderate in the next couple of quarters, driven by the decelerating pace of both public- and private-sector consumption. The left-leaning government's mismanagement of macroeconomic policies has deepened the country's economic dependence on government spending as its main driver of growth.

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The country’s most economically significant natural resources come from mining and petroleum extraction. There are largely unexploited deposits of coal in the Guasaré River, as well as iron ore, bauxite, and other minerals. Production of iron ore has grown substantially with large deposits of bauxite discovered in the Guiana Highlands, much of it high-grade ore suitable for aluminum smelting. Some of the largest proven petroleum reserves in the world exist offshore in the Orinoco delta. Some oil from the Orinoco basin is used to create bitumen-rich orimulsion, a boiler fuel that burns less cleanly than many other fuel sources. Venezuela also has abundant LNG deposits. Other important nonferrous minerals include gold, diamonds, salt deposits, and scattered deposits of industrial-grade limestone. There are also economically important reserves of nickel, phosphates, copper, zinc, lead, titanium, and manganese, and recent geological surveys indicate the existence of substantial deposits of uranium and thorium. Hydroelectricity is the source of about half the country’s electric power. The most important generating center is the Guri Dam on the Caroní River, which supplies Ciudad Guayana and its nearby mining complexes. The Santo Domingo River and other shorter Andean rivers are additional hydroelectric power resources. Thermal generators fired by oil, gas, or coal account for the remaining power generation capacity. More than nine-tenths of Venezuelans have access to electricity in their homes, making the country one of the better-provisioned in this regard in Latin America. The Venezuelan LV motor market experienced a healthy growth of 8.5% in 2013 after good growth of 9.8% during the previous year. The Venezuelan market is estimated to have been worth $68 million in 2013, with 160k units sold. Growth rates for this market are expected to remain steady during the forecast period. Venezuela is primarily an end-user, IE1 motor market. With a forecast revenue CAGR of 13.6% and units shipped CAGR of 5.5% over the forecast period, the Venezuelan LV motor market is predicted to perform above the region’s average.

4.1.3 The Americas market for low-voltage motors by application Tables 4.3a and 4.3b & Figures 4.6 and 4.7 Like in other regions, Compressors, Fans and Pumps account for the majority LV motors in the Americas market. Combined, these applications generated an estimated $4,041 million, or 80% of LV motor revenues in the region and over 82% of unit shipments during 2013. These application sectors are expected to outperform the market average during the forecast period, generating CAGRs for revenues of 13.2%, 12.7% and 13.4%, respectively. As mentioned, LV motors sold into these three applications will benefit the most from increased efficiency as they are typically run at continuous duty (S1) cycles. Application sectors that are forecast to significantly underperform the region’s market average during the forecast period include Printing, Propulsion, and Winders.

4.1.4 The Americas market for low-voltage motors by manufacturing sector Tables 4.4, 4.5a, 4.5b, 4.6 and 4.7 & Figures 4.8, 4.9, 4.10, 4.11, 4.12 and 4.13

Discrete manufacturing sector In 2013, the Discrete Sector (Machine builders/OEMs) was estimated to account for 67% of LV motor revenues and over 73% of units shipped in the Americas region, and is forecast to outperform the market average of 12.0% at a CAGR of 13.2% for revenues. Like in other regions, Commercial HVAC and Food, Beverage & Tobacco are the largest discrete sectors in the region. Combined, they accounted for an estimated $2,013 million in revenues, or 59% of the region’s total LV motor revenues and 70% of units in 2013. Among the highest CAGRs during the forecast period include Food, Beverage & Tobacco at 14.8%. This high CAGR can be partly attributed to the large amount of stainless steel (washdown) and hazardous are motors which are priced at IE3 levels.

Process manufacturing sector The Process Sector (end-users) accounted for 26% of the region’s LV motor revenues. The process sectors in the region were hit the hardest during the global recession in 2009. However, strong mining and oil and gas end-user sectors in the Americas, especially “fracking” operations in the US has brought about a quicker than expected recovery. Thusly, the Process Sector is expected to underperform the market average at a CAGR of 12.0% for revenues during the forecast period.

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Chemicals, Food, Beverage & Tobacco, Mining, Oil & Gas and Power Generation – Nuclear & Fossil end-user sectors are forecast to significantly outperform the market average of 12.0% during the forecast generating CAGRs of 13.9%, 12.8%, 12.6%, 14.1% and 13.4%, respectively. The underperforming sector in the region is forecast to be Metals Processing and Pharmaceuticals.

Other manufacturing sector The Other Manufacturing sector in the region was estimated to be worth $299 million in 2013 with 743k units shipped. The sector is predicted to perform under the regional market average, generating a CAGR of 9.3% for revenues during the forecast period. Only one Other Manufacturing sector, Infrastructure, is forecast to outperform the global market average during the forecast period, generating a CAGR for revenues of 11.8%.

4.1.5 The Americas market for low-voltage motors by frame size Tables 4.8, 4.9, and 4.10 & Figures 4.14, 4.15, 4.16 and 4.17 The Americas market for LV motors consists mostly of NEMA frame LV motors sold into North America which accounted for an estimated $3,960 million or over 78% of the region’s LV motor revenues in 2013. The NEMA frame motor market is forecast to perform slightly under the market average of 12.5% though 2018. A unique quality of the NEMA-centric Americas market is that it hosts both a thriving NEMA and IEC LV motor market. While IEC frame motors will be found mostly in Brazil and other parts of South America, the US boasts a steadily growing IEC market in all power ranges. European and Asian machine builders produce IEC-based machinery for their export markets to the Americas. This is especially true in machines built for off shore oil and gas and liquid natural gas (LNG) exploration in the coastal regions of the US. Japanese, German, and Korean car companies have constructed new IEC-based manufacturing facilities in the US during over the past three years. Similarly, machines built in Europe for providing alternative energy production via solar and wind turbines are also based on IEC metric design. GE is one of the few US-based companies to design its wind turbines based on IEC standards. Consequently, this creates a lucrative replacement market for IEC product which US manufacturers have addressed by enhancing their respective IEC product lines. For these reasons, IHS has forecast the IEC market in the region to outperform the NEMA market, as well as the market average, generating a CAGR of 13.1% for revenues through 2018. IEC frame size markets forecast to outperform the market average in the Americas are 80 to 225. The prevailing power range in this frame size range is 0.75kW–7.5kW (1–10HP). NEMA frame size markets are forecast to outperform the market average are found in the 56 to 326 range. The prevailing power ranges in this frame sizes is between 1 and 50HP.

4.1.6 The Americas market for low-voltage motors by sales channel Table 4.11 & Figures 4.18 and 4.19 The Discrete Sector (machine builders/OEMs) in the region has a strong influence on sales channels for LV motors. Like in other regions, the Direct to OEM channel is forecast to outperform the market average during the forecast period, generating a CAGR of 13.6% for revenues. This channel accounts for $3,617 million, or over 70% of revenues in the region and over 76% of the units shipped.

4.1.7 The Americas market for low-voltage motors by power rating Table 4.12 & Figures 4.20 and 4.21 Like in other regions, LV motors in the power rating range of 0.75kW to 7.5kW (1HP to 10HP) account for the majority of LV motor revenues generated in the region. In 2013, these power ranges accounted for an estimated $3,576 million in revenues, or over 71% of the market. In terms of units, these power ranges accounted for over 96% of units shipped. IHS expects these three power rating segments to outperform at the market average during the forecast period, generating CAGRs of 12.8%, 13.0%, and15.5%, respectively.

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While underperformance against the market average in the higher power rating segments is typical in each region, the LV motor market in the Americas region demands higher power rated motors for its robust heavy industries (oil and gas, mining, etc.), in addition to being more expensive IE3/NEMA Premium motor types. Therefore, these market segments are significantly higher performers when compared to the market performance of these power rating segments in other regions.

4.1.8 The Americas market for low-voltage motors by enclosure Table 4.13 & Figures 4.22 and 4.23 Like in other regions, the most prevalent enclosure for LV motors sold into the Americas is the totally enclosed fan-cooled (TEFC) enclosure. In 2013, TEFC LV motors accounted for an estimated $4,093 million, or 81% of region’s LV motor revenues and almost over 82% of units shipped during the year. Revenues generated from TEFC LV motors are projected to slightly underperform the market during the forecast period, generating a CAGR of 12.9% for revenues. The TEFC: non-hazardous market segment is forecast to slightly underperform the market average at a CAGR of 12.5%. IHS extended the enclosure segmentation to include hazardous area motors for the 2013 Edition of the report, noted by the nonhazardous and hazardous sub-titles for each enclosure segment. The explosion proof motor, formerly referred to as the XP segment, is actually a subcategory of TEFC. An XP class motor uses a thicker grade of metal to protect the motor from a hazardous environment, or to minimize the potential for an unchecked ignition source to cause the motor to explode. The European equivalents of the North American-centric XP motor are also included in the TEFC/hazardous area segment. These equivalents include: Exd (flameproof), Exe (increased safety), Exia and EXib (intrinsically safe), Exo (oil immersion), Exp (pressurized apparatus), Exq (powder filling), Exm (encapsulation) and Exn (non-sparking). Globally, the hazardous area LV motor market has experienced higher year-on-year growth that in past years due to liability concerns in the automated factory environment. This sub-segment of TEFC is projected to grow robustly, producing a CAGR of 16.2% for revenues during the forecast period. Open drip proof (ODP) motors are in higher demand in the Americas region compared to the other two regions and have traditionally been the second largest enclosure segment next to TEFC. IHS has forecast that OPD segment will perform at the market average during the forecast period, generating a CAGR of 12.8% for revenues.

4.2 Americas market share analysis for 2013 Table 4.14 Low voltage motor manufacturers that have less than a 1.0% market share do not appear in Table 4.13, and are represented as a cumulative total in the ‘Others’ grouping. ABB is the top share leader in the Americas market in 2013 at 21.0%. ABB’s share remains unchanged from 2012. Brazil’s WEG is ranked second and is estimated to have had a 16.5% share, a 1.5% increase from the previous year. The majority of WEG LV business is concentrated in Brazil, other South American countries and the US. Regal Beloit is estimated to have held the third highest share in the region at 6.0% with its LV motor sales heavily concentrated in the US. CORRECTION: US-based Regal Beloit’s LV motor revenues in the Americas were overstated by IHS for the base year 2012 in the previous edition of this report. Therefore, it was reported in error that Regal Beloit held a 13.5% Americas share in 2012. Regal Beloit’s 2012 Americas share has been adjusted downward to 4.0% and was adjusted upwards to 6.0% for base year 2013 in the 2014 edition of this report.

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US-based Nidec (formerly US Emerson) held the fourth share position at 5.0% share, up 0.5% from 2012. The majority of Nidec’s LV motor business is in the US, Canada and Mexico. German supplier Siemens held the fifth share position at 4.5%, up 0.5% from the previous year. US-based GE held the sixth share position at 3.0%, unchanged from the previous year. GE generates the majority of its LV motor business in the US and Canada, but also has significant medium voltage motor market presence in Brazil, operating under the name Gevisa. Taiwan-based TECO-Westinghouse occupied the seventh share position at 2.5% with the majority of its LV motor revenues generated in the US and Mexico. CORRECTION: TECO-Westinghouse’s motor revenues were overstated by IHS in the Americas for the base year 2012 in the previous edition of this report. Therefore, it was reported in error that TECO Electric & Machinery/TECO-Westinghouse held a 5.0% world share in 2012. TECO-Westinghouse’s 2012 world share has been adjusted downward to 1.5% and estimated at 2.5% for base year 2013 in the 2014 edition of this report. Toshiba International Corporation held the eighth share position at 2.0%, down 0.5% from 2012. The remaining 39.5% share of the Americas market for LV motors was held by smaller share motor manufacturers in the region including global players Lafert Metric Motors, Hyundai Ideal, TechTop, Tatung Electric Company, and Leroy Somer.

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Table 4.1

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Efficiency Class

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


2,505.0 8,872.1 282

3,133.7 9,437.4 332

3,621.2 9,921.4 365

4,214.6 10,669.7 395

4,641.7 11,175.0 415

5,154.2 11,803.9 437

5,754.0 12,539.7 459

6,419.7 13,283.4 483

7,081.1 14,030.5 505

7,814.6 14,836.7 527

13.5% 5.9% 7.2%


1,079.3 4,320.9 250

842.1 3,361.0 251

536.3 2,179.2 246

485.8 2,058.8 236

273.5 1,189.0 230

243.4 1,042.6 233

261.2 1,086.2 240

273.5 1,104.1 248

285.3 1,124.0 254

303.2 1,165.1 260

-13.2% -13.6% 0.5%


1,247.6 4,125.1 302

1,954.4 5,349.6 365

2,020.3 5,580.8 362

1,388.6 3,838.9 362

928.4 2,763.0 336

773.2 2,251.6 343

795.5 2,227.6 357

938.9 2,503.8 375

1,005.2 2,589.9 388

1,079.8 2,690.6 401

-1.6% -4.6% 3.2%


123.5 369.3 334

267.3 660.0 405

986.0 2,088.0 472

2,235.0 4,678.0 478

3,306.6 7,111.0 465

3,983.8 8,383.0 475

4,506.1 9,073.7 497

4,976.2 9,497.9 524

5,506.5 10,105.7 545

6,079.4 10,728.0 567

54.2% 45.4% 6.0%

54.6 56.8 961

69.8 66.8 1,045

78.6 73.4 1,071

105.2 94.0 1,119

133.3 112.0 1,190

153.8 126.7 1,214

191.2 152.2 1,256

231.1 177.6 1,302

284.2 210.9 1,347

352.3 253.0 1,393

23.0% 18.1% 4.2%


399.8 414.1 966

421.2 406.5 1,036

429.9 396.1 1,085

408.9 362.0 1,130

405.6 276.0 1,470

425.0 248.3 1,712

477.1 244.3 1,953

544.2 248.9 2,186

595.7 266.1 2,239

638.0 247.4 2,579

5.3% -5.6% 11.5%


151.7 346.0 438

153.2 334.0 459

149.4 320.5 466

103.0 280.0 368

61.6 186.0 331

51.5 152.5 338

47.1 136.7 345

44.8 127.1 353

49.2 136.3 361

40.4 109.2 370

-13.7% -12.0% -1.9%


248.1 68.1 3,641

268.0 72.5 3,697

280.5 75.6 3,711

305.9 82.0 3,730

344.1 90.0 3,823

373.5 95.8 3,899

430.0 107.6 3,997

499.4 121.8 4,101

546.4 129.7 4,212

597.6 138.2 4,325

10.3% 8.2% 1.9%


2,904.9

3,554.9 22.4%

4,051.1 14.0%

4,623.5 14.1%

5,047.4 9.2%

5,579.2 10.5%

6,231.1 11.7%

6,963.9 11.8%

7,676.8 10.2%

8,452.6 10.1%

12.6%


9,286.2

9,843.9 10,317.5 11,031.7 11,451.0 12,052.2 12,783.9 13,532.3 14,296.6 15,084.1 6.0% 4.8% 6.9% 3.8% 5.2% 6.1% 5.9% 5.6% 5.5%

5.5%

EFFICIENCIES: Total

IE4 - Super Premium Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($) NON-EFFICIENCIES: Total

Source: IHS

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Figure 4.1

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Efficiency Class - Share of Market - 2010 to 2018 100%

Other/non-reg.

90%

DC Motors

80%


Revenues (%)

70%


2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 4.2

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Efficiency Class - Market Breakdown and Growth 3,500

30%

2013 Revenues

25%

Growth 2014

3,000 20%

Growth 2015

15% 10%

2,000

5% 1,500

0%

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

2,500

-5%

1,000

-10% 500 -15% 0

-20% IE1

IE2

IE3

IE4


DC

Other

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Figure 4.3

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Efficiency Class - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 50%

IE1 - Standard

40% IE2 - High

Growth (%)

30% 20%

IE3 - Premium

10%

IE4 - Super Premium

0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

DC Motors

-10% Other/non-reg.

-20%

-30%

Total Market

-40%

Source: IHS

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Table 4.2

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Region

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18

US Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

1,925.4 5,304.2 363

2,399.6 5,966.2 402

2,735.6 6,288.1 435

3,188.4 6,927.8 460

3,447.2 7,158.5 482

3,771.4 7,413.8 509

4,169.4 7,736.1 539

4,600.3 8,026.6 573

5,000.8 8,308.3 602

5,427.1 8,585.0 632

12.2% 5.5% 6.4%

Brazil Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

410.9 1,775.9 231

505.0 1,629.0 310

549.0 1,701.8 323

581.7 1,746.1 333

610.7 1,783.5 342

701.9 1,961.5 358

809.0 2,157.3 375

938.3 2,378.3 395

1,072.0 2,612.7 410

1,221.3 2,862.2 427

12.9% 5.4% 7.0%

Canada Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

155.5 356.4 436

174.2 359.7 484

216.9 388.5 558

256.7 412.9 622

301.6 441.3 683

336.0 470.5 714

378.3 505.4 749

425.5 540.4 787

472.2 576.6 819

524.6 616.0 852

14.5% 6.3% 7.7%

Mexico Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

181.3 736.0 246

204.9 756.0 271

228.4 758.2 301

243.2 767.0 317

299.5 821.2 365

335.4 880.0 381

375.1 939.2 399

423.1 1,007.0 420

473.2 1,082.9 437

528.5 1,162.9 454

12.6% 5.2% 7.0%

Argentina Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

41.3 172.4 240

49.3 165.7 298

58.2 180.1 323

64.1 179.6 357

71.6 193.5 370

80.6 208.5 386

92.1 227.5 405

107.2 251.7 426

122.9 277.3 443

140.4 304.7 461

14.6% 6.5% 7.5%

Chile Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

44.0 146.1 301

50.6 155.3 326

61.7 151.2 408

68.0 149.8 454

74.0 157.4 470

85.6 171.6 499

102.2 191.7 533

120.5 213.0 565

140.0 235.8 594

163.7 260.1 629

15.7% 6.6% 8.5%

Columbia Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

19.4 137.8 140

22.0 126.3 174

25.1 142.0 177

28.1 139.0 202

31.3 146.1 214

34.4 150.2 229

39.5 164.4 240

46.0 182.2 253

51.4 195.7 263

58.2 211.0 276

13.0% 4.8% 7.8%

Peru Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

29.6 142.6 208

36.9 158.2 233

45.0 156.2 288

49.5 145.6 340

157.4 346

62.1 171.7 362

72.4 189.8 381

85.0 210.4 404

99.5 232.3 428

115.0 255.6 450

16.3% 6.7% 9.0%

Venezuela Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

40.8 150.2 271

48.3 161.4 299

57.0 163.7 348

62.6 153.6 408

67.9 160.4 424

74.4 167.6 444

86.2 185.4 465

100.0 204.4 489

114.2 224.5 509

128.5 242.9 529

13.6% 5.5% 7.7%

Rest of Latin America Revenues ($M) 56.7 Units (k) 364.5 ASP ($) 156

64.1 366.1 175

74.2 387.7 191

81.1 410.1 198

89.1 431.7 206

97.6 456.8 214

106.8 487.1 219

117.9 518.3 227

130.6 550.4 237

145.3 583.8 249

11.0% 5.4% 5.4%

4,051.1 14.0%

4,623.5 14.1%

5,047.4 9.2%

5,579.2 10.5%

6,231.1 11.7%

6,963.9 11.8%

7,676.8 10.2%

8,452.6 10.1%

12.6%

13,532.3 14,296.6 15,084.1 5.9% 5.6% 5.5%

5.5%


2,904.9

3,554.9 22.4%


9,286.2

9,843.9 10,317.5 11,031.7 6.0% 4.8% 6.9%

11,451.0 12,052.2 12,783.9 3.8% 5.2% 6.1%

Source: IHS

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Figure 4.4

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Region - Market Breakdown and Growth 4,000

20%

3,500


18%

Growth 2015

16%

2,500 2,000

14%

1,500

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

3,000

12%

1,000 10%

500 0

8%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 4.5

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors

Growth (%)

By Region - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 25%

US

23%

Brazil

21%

Canada

19%

Mexico Argentina

17%

Chile

15%

Columbia

13%

Peru

11% Venezuela 9%

Rest of Latin America Total Market

7% 5% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


2016

2017

2018

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Table 4.3a

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Application

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


736.9 2,411.4 306

919.1 2,592.2 355

1,107.8 2,797.1 396

1,256.7 3,009.4 418

1,383.3 3,120.0 443

1,573.4 3,362.9 468

1,790.7 3,626.1 494

2,005.5 3,873.1 518

2,109.0 3,890.7 542

2,241.8 3,976.9 564

13.2% 5.7% 7.0%


71.7 125.4 571

92.6 152.9 606

115.4 179.7 642

147.4 207.5 710

156.5 211.1 741

158.0 205.9 767

161.2 201.8 799

173.2 205.5 843

181.7 205.7 884

189.9 206.4 920

11.4% 5.7% 5.4%


31.8 47.2 674

41.1 51.3 801

43.3 52.3 828

50.2 58.0 865

53.5 58.9 909

56.3 59.3 949

62.4 62.9 992

65.8 63.4 1,038

72.1 66.9 1,077

75.6 67.0 1,128

10.1% 4.0% 5.9%


24.9 33.2 750

30.0 35.0 857

35.7 36.9 969

40.5 38.6 1,049

42.1 37.5 1,120

42.4 37.1 1,143

44.4 38.1 1,165

46.3 39.0 1,189

51.6 42.6 1,213

58.6 47.3 1,237

10.0% 4.0% 5.7%


139.2 291.2 478

162.9 302.0 539

179.8 317.7 566

193.3 329.1 587

208.7 340.4 613

229.1 358.5 639

248.5 371.3 669

269.3 388.0 694

301.1 409.4 736

12.1% 4.4% 7.3%


59.4 96.1 618

67.5 100.7 670

76.6 107.3 714

84.2 110.9 759

89.2 108.0 826

100.2 116.1 863

115.9 125.7 922

134.9 134.4 1,003

157.0 144.9 1,084

175.1 155.8 1,124

12.8% 5.5% 6.9%


751.9 2,923.7 257

922.6 3,093.2 298

1,022.9 3,212.1 318

1,166.8 3,437.0 339

1,287.7 3,569.2 361

1,415.1 3,724.8 380

1,576.7 3,935.6 401

1,763.3 4,152.5 425

1,997.5 4,501.4 444

2,207.5 4,764.4 463

12.7% 5.6% 6.8%


29.5 39.6 746

38.0 41.0 927

45.1 44.6 1,011

56.2 44.9 1,251

58.0 45.5 1,276

59.5 46.2 1,289

61.4 47.1 1,304

62.2 47.1 1,321

66.7 49.8 1,341

74.8 54.8 1,365

10.9% 3.7% 6.9%


4.1 8.3 495

4.9 8.8 557

5.1 8.8 580

5.9 9.5 618

5.2 9.2 572

4.7 7.8 601

4.4 7.0 632

4.9 7.0 689

4.4 6.0 731

3.9 4.8 804

-0.7% -5.9% 5.5%


812.9 2,179.9 373

965.6 2,319.7 416

1,072.8 2,404.5 446

1,243.4 2,616.8 475

1,370.5 2,714.3 505

1,525.8 2,877.3 530

1,716.7 3,070.4 559

1,949.7 3,280.6 594

2,215.9 3,580.2 619

2,528.9 3,928.3 644

13.4% 6.8% 6.3%


Source: IHS

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Table 4.3b

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Application

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


3.8 5.5 691

4.7 7.7 610

4.3 7.1 601

4.0 6.7 600

3.5 5.7 621

3.4 5.2 648

3.4 5.0 676

3.4 4.9 707

3.6 4.9 734

3.8 5.0 756

0.0% -1.0% 1.0%


11.9 22.8 523

12.7 23.2 547

12.9 23.1 558

13.9 23.7 588

14.4 24.3 591

15.1 24.4 617

15.8 24.6 644

16.8 24.9 675

18.1 25.9 700

21.3 27.0 787

6.7% 1.9% 4.7%


9.3 17.2 540

10.6 18.3 579

10.8 18.1 599

12.7 19.9 639

13.4 20.7 646

13.9 20.6 674

14.8 21.1 703

16.1 21.8 740

17.9 23.3 767

21.0 25.3 829

9.5% 4.4% 4.9%


248.7 1,098.8 226

306.3 1,108.7 276

335.6 1,123.8 299

361.7 1,131.1 320

376.7 1,197.4 315

402.9 1,224.1 329

434.3 1,260.1 345

473.1 1,306.8 362

512.0 1,366.3 375

549.3 1,411.4 389

9.2% 2.8% 6.2%


2,904.9

3,554.9 22.4%

4,051.1 14.0%

4,623.5 14.1%

5,047.4 9.2%

5,579.2 10.5%

6,231.1 11.7%

6,963.9 11.8%

7,676.8 10.2%

8,452.6 10.1%

12.6%


9,286.2

9,843.9 10,317.5 11,031.7 11,451.0 12,052.2 12,783.9 13,532.3 14,296.6 15,084.1 6.0% 4.8% 6.9% 3.8% 5.2% 6.1% 5.9% 5.6% 5.5%

5.5%

Source: IHS

July 2014

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Figure 4.6

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Application - Market Breakdown and Growth 1,600

2013 Revenues

16% 14%

1,400

12%

1,200

8%

Growth 2015

6%

1,000

4% 800

2% 0%

600

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

Growth 2014

10%

-2% -4%

400

-6% -8%

200

-10% 0

-12%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 4.7

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Application - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 30% Compressors

25%

Conveyors

Crushers

Growth (%)

20%

Elev & Esc

15%

Fans 10% Pumps

5% Total Market 0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


2016

2017

2018

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Table 4.4

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Discrete, Process & Other Manufacturing Sectors

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


1,897.1 6,736.3 282

2,298.9 7,157.9 321

2,656.4 7,542.2 352

3,054.6 8,067.5 379

3,399.2 8,400.6 405

3,779.0 8,858.4 427

4,234.2 9,430.8 449

4,706.7 10,018.1 470

5,220.7 10,621.0 492

5,767.8 11,213.6 514

13.2% 5.8% 6.9%


799.0 1,920.7 416

1,013.4 2,027.8 500

1,133.6 2,094.3 541

1,285.8 2,249.0 572

1,349.4 2,307.8 585

1,469.8 2,416.9 608

1,634.5 2,538.0 644

1,859.8 2,659.5 699

2,026.8 2,786.9 727

2,218.8 2,944.9 753

12.0% 4.9% 6.8%


208.9 629.2 332

242.7 658.2 369

261.1 680.9 383

283.2 715.2 396

298.8 742.7 402

330.4 776.9 425

362.4 815.1 445

397.4 854.7 465

429.3 888.7 483

466.0 925.5 503

9.3% 4.4% 4.7%


2,904.9

3,554.9 22.4%

4,051.1 14.0%

4,623.5 14.1%

5,047.4 9.2%

5,579.2 10.5%

6,231.1 11.7%

6,963.9 11.8%

7,676.8 10.2%

8,452.6 10.1%

12.6%


9,286.2

9,843.9 10,317.5 11,031.7 11,451.0 12,052.2 12,783.9 13,532.3 14,296.6 15,084.1 6.0% 4.8% 6.9% 3.8% 5.2% 6.1% 5.9% 5.6% 5.5%

5.5%

Source: IHS

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Table 4.5a

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Discrete Sector

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18

52.4 119.4 439

58.6 122.6 478

61.1 123.4 495

64.3 123.2 522

72.5 132.9 546

84.2 144.1 584

97.8 155.7 628

112.2 170.2 659

126.7 174.3 727

146.3 191.2 765

12.1% 5.4% 6.4%

826.6 3,721.3 222

993.5 3,950.9 251

1,155.8 4,160.8 278

1,331.1 4,522.7 294

1,532.8 4,688.4 327

1,736.1 4,970.4 349

1,959.2 5,313.0 369

2,181.1 5,636.8 387

2,392.1 5,970.8 401

2,608.8 6,264.7 416

13.6% 6.0% 7.2%


71.7 125.4 571

92.6 152.9 606

115.4 179.7 642

147.4 207.5 710

156.5 211.1 741

158.0 205.9 767

161.2 201.8 799

173.2 205.5 843

181.7 205.7 884

189.9 206.4 920

11.4% 5.7% 5.4%


31.8 47.2 674

41.1 51.3 801

43.3 52.3 828

50.2 58.0 865

53.5 58.9 909

56.3 59.3 949

62.4 62.9 992

65.8 63.4 1,038

72.1 66.9 1,077

75.6 67.0 1,128

10.1% 4.0% 5.9%


139.2 291.2 478

162.9 302.0 539

179.8 317.7 566

193.3 329.1 587

208.7 340.4 613

229.1 358.5 639

248.5 371.3 669

269.3 388.0 694

301.1 409.4 736

12.1% 4.4% 7.3%

Food, Bev. & Tobacco (DS) Revenues ($M) 257.0 Units (k) 988.1 ASP ($) 260

314.8 1,026.0 307

366.2 1,094.4 335

428.5 1,156.4 371

480.3 1,205.3 399

544.1 1,288.1 422

625.4 1,386.1 451

708.1 1,499.0 472

804.9 1,609.0 500

890.1 1,710.9 520

14.8% 6.3% 8.0%



53.2 118.0 451

62.9 126.9 496

69.3 133.7 518

78.7 144.1 546

90.4 157.2 575

101.6 165.1 615

114.0 173.2 658

128.4 182.2 705

142.6 189.2 754

160.5 198.9 807

13.1% 6.0% 6.7%


118.3 150.9 784

153.3 166.0 923

198.2 187.9 1,055

245.4 209.7 1,170

220.5 197.2 1,119

229.7 188.4 1,219

256.8 196.8 1,305

286.2 215.1 1,331

328.9 239.9 1,371

365.3 261.2 1,398

13.3% 6.3% 6.6%


67.4 175.1 385

78.9 189.8 416

90.5 195.1 464

105.5 205.7 513

117.9 211.8 557

131.0 222.1 590

148.0 238.8 620

172.6 253.2 682

208.2 275.2 756

15.7% 5.6% 9.5%


117.0 368.2 318

131.1 380.2 345

152.1 400.1 380

165.5 420.3 394

188.2 442.4 425

215.2 468.4 459

244.5 492.8 496

276.1 515.3 536

313.0 540.9 579

13.7% 5.1% 8.2%

98.3 344.7 285


Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

162

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IHS Technology


Table 4.5b

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Discrete Sector

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


4.1 8.3 495

4.9 8.8 557

5.1 8.8 580

5.9 9.5 618

5.2 9.2 572

4.7 7.8 601

4.4 7.0 632

4.9 7.0 689

4.4 6.0 731

3.9 4.8 804

-0.7% -5.9% 5.5%


13.5 17.0 793

16.9 20.8 814

17.7 21.5 824

18.6 22.3 834

21.9 25.0 875

24.1 25.9 928

25.3 25.7 983

27.5 26.3 1,042

29.7 26.9 1,105

32.6 27.8 1,171

10.3% 5.6% 4.4%


3.3 9.4 350

3.9 10.0 390

5.4 13.3 408

6.1 14.3 429

6.2 14.0 444

6.6 14.2 467

7.1 14.6 487

7.3 14.5 506

7.8 14.3 542

8.8 14.4 607

11.5% 4.8% 6.3%


35.7 103.4 345

43.2 109.8 393

53.2 120.6 441

61.6 127.9 481

61.1 126.1 485

62.8 128.5 489

59.9 121.5 493

65.4 131.6 497

73.8 147.4 501

11.5% 4.9% 6.3%

8.5 25.4 336

9.7 25.9 375

12.3 31.6 389

13.0 31.1 419

14.6 34.0 428

16.9 35.3 480

20.0 37.3 537

21.4 39.1 548

25.0 40.8 614

28.9 42.1 688

14.5% 5.8% 8.3%


46.2 75.0 616

45.1 73.4 615

42.2 71.3 592

46.4 75.2 617

48.6 74.9 649

47.7 67.5 707

51.7 69.7 742

56.5 71.8 787

60.3 73.0 827

6.0% 2.8% 3.1%



43.1 138.4 311

48.4 143.7 337

52.4 152.1 345

55.5 154.3 360

66.0 169.6 389

73.3 179.2 409

81.4 190.3 428

88.8 202.4 439

98.7 215.6 458

111.2 232.7 478

11.1% 5.9% 4.9%


28.4 75.1 379

29.8 77.4 385

28.4 75.9 374

27.1 75.3 360

33.7 87.0 387

37.7 90.2 418

42.6 94.3 451

48.0 98.5 488

53.8 102.3 527

65.2 114.7 569

9.7% 4.8% 4.6%


62.9 261.7 240

64.8 251.7 257

64.9 234.4 277

72.6 252.6 287

81.1 260.7 311

90.7 274.3 330

101.2 285.7 354

112.7 297.0 379

124.4 306.4 406

8.5% 2.3% 6.1%

4,706.7 11.2%

5,220.7 10.9%


1,897.1

2,298.9 21.2%

2,656.4 15.6%

3,054.6 15.0%

3,399.2 11.3%

3,779.0 11.2%

4,234.2 12.0%

5,767.8 10.5%

13.2%


6,736.3

7,157.9 6.3%

7,542.2 5.4%

8,067.5 7.0%

8,400.6 4.1%

8,858.4 5.5%

9,430.8 10,018.1 10,621.0 11,213.6 6.5% 6.2% 6.0% 5.6%

5.8%

Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

163

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 4.8

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Discrete Sector - Market Breakdown and Growth 1,800

20%

2013 Revenues

15%

Growth 2014

10%

Growth 2015

1,600

Revenues ($M)

1,200 1,000

5% 800

600

0%

Growth (%)

1,400

400

-5% 200 0

-10%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 4.9

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Discrete Sector - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 30%

Automotive

25%

Commercial HVAC Conveyors

20%

Cranes & Hoists Elevators & Escalators Food, Bev. & Tobacco (DS) Machine Tools

Growth (%)

15%

10%

Mining (DS)

5% 0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

-5%

2017

2018

Refrigeration

-10%

Rubber & Plastics (DS) Semiconductor

-15%


2016

Packaging & Labeling Paper & Paperboard Printing

Jul-14 164

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 4.6

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Process Sector

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18

75.2 241.2 312

97.4 254.7 383

109.7 258.1 425

126.4 289.4 437

140.4 302.1 465

153.1 320.0 479

167.5 333.5 502

191.3 357.4 535

211.5 388.5 544

241.8 431.1 561

13.9% 6.7% 6.7%


102.1 329.0 310

121.3 346.7 350

145.3 372.3 390

160.2 380.7 421

168.8 397.2 425

182.7 413.5 442

206.8 432.5 478

220.8 452.8 488

238.4 477.0 500

12.8% 5.0% 7.4%


54.5 112.6 484

69.8 115.0 607

81.2 121.5 669

89.2 121.8 732

95.7 122.7 780

102.7 126.5 812

106.9 129.1 828

109.5 126.0 869

109.8 122.2 898

116.3 124.7 932

8.8% 1.1% 7.5%


72.5 81.9 885

93.2 90.9 1,025

110.5 96.6 1,144

136.3 111.1 1,226

121.0 90.6 1,335

121.1 87.7 1,382

137.7 96.8 1,423

161.7 106.2 1,523

185.3 118.2 1,568

208.8 129.3 1,615

12.5% 5.2% 6.9%


104.3 170.6 611

129.7 181.9 713

146.4 195.9 747

173.5 229.9 755

190.8 237.9 802

218.9 263.6 830

259.6 289.5 897

299.3 300.7 995

325.7 303.0 1,075

341.9 300.1 1,139

14.1% 6.5% 7.2%


51.2 151.7 337

65.9 155.8 423

71.9 155.8 461

80.7 160.2 504

83.0 160.1 519

93.2 177.9 524

103.3 195.2 529

108.4 201.3 539

114.4 210.4 544

120.1 218.7 549

9.9% 4.2% 5.6%


120.6 125.3 963

127.4 127.5 999

133.2 129.7 1,027

139.0 136.9 1,016

161.9 150.6 1,075

193.1 170.8 1,130

232.4 187.0 1,243

257.0 202.1 1,272

291.3 222.4 1,310

13.4% 6.9% 6.0%


35.7 21.4 1,671

36.9 22.0 1,678

38.6 22.6 1,712

40.7 23.6 1,722

43.7 23.1 1,894

49.0 23.5 2,089

56.7 24.0 2,360

62.3 26.1 2,384

77.0 29.4 2,622

11.9% 5.0% 6.5%


58.3 136.1 428

64.1 140.2 457

74.8 152.6 490

80.3 160.8 500

83.5 162.3 515

87.0 163.3 533

93.9 167.9 559

103.2 175.8 587

123.0 203.5 604

11.8% 5.4% 6.0%


209.9 498.0 422

230.9 504.1 458

252.3 522.9 483

260.6 540.1 482

286.6 563.0 509

313.1 585.9 534

364.6 620.2 588

400.6 651.5 615

422.8 673.4 628

10.8% 3.9% 6.6%


30.5 119.6 255

33.3 125.8 265

35.3 136.4 259

37.6 152.3 247

36.2 145.0 249

34.7 137.0 253

35.2 136.4 258

36.2 136.3 266

37.4 135.2 276

4.6% 2.2% 2.4%



799.0

1,013.4 26.8%

1,133.6 11.9%

1,285.8 13.4%

1,349.4 5.0%

1,469.8 8.9%

1,634.5 11.2%

1,859.8 13.8%

2,026.8 9.0%

2,218.8 9.5%

12.0%


1,920.7

2,027.8 5.6%

2,094.3 3.3%

2,249.0 7.4%

2,307.8 2.6%

2,416.9 4.7%

2,538.0 5.0%

2,659.5 4.8%

2,786.9 4.8%

2,944.9 5.7%

4.9%


Jul-14 165

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 4.10

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Process Sector - Market Breakdown and Growth 300

23%

250


18%

200

Growth 2015

150

8% 100

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

13%

3%

50

0

-2%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 4.11

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Process Sector - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 30%

Chemicals


20% 15%

Growth (%)

Mining (PS)

10% Pharmaceuticals

5% 0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

-5% -10%

2016

2017

2018

Rubber & Plastics (PS) Total Market

-15%


Jul-14 166

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 4.7

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Other Sector

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


39.6 142.3 278

42.3 160.6 263

46.3 169.4 273

48.7 181.3 269

54.2 192.0 282

59.2 201.5 294

63.6 208.2 305

67.7 214.7 315

70.8 216.3 327

8.4% 6.4% 1.9%


100.5 202.1 497

118.3 236.3 501

132.2 255.7 517

146.5 270.0 543

157.5 280.4 562

178.3 298.7 597

199.3 321.6 620

223.5 348.7 641

246.9 373.3 661

274.4 401.7 683

11.8% 7.9% 3.6%


74.3 303.4 245

84.8 279.6 303

86.6 264.7 327

90.4 275.7 328

92.5 281.0 329

98.0 286.1 342

104.0 292.1 356

110.2 297.7 370

114.7 300.7 381

120.8 307.6 393

5.6% 0.2% 5.4%


208.9

242.7 16.2%

261.1 7.6%

283.2 8.5%

298.8 5.5%

330.4 10.6%

362.4 9.7%

397.4 9.6%

429.3 8.0%

466.0 8.6%

9.3%


629.2

658.2 4.6%

680.9 3.5%

715.2 5.0%

742.7 3.8%

776.9 4.6%

815.1 4.9%

854.7 4.9%

888.7 4.0%

925.5 4.2%

4.4%

Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

167

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 4.12

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Other Sector - Market Breakdown and Growth 180

16%

2013 Revenues

160

Growth 2014

14%

140

Growth 2015

12%

100 80

10% 60 40

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

120

8%

20 0

6%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 4.13

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Other Sector - Market Breakdown and Growth 18%

Building Automation

16%

Growth (%)

14% Infrastructure

12% 10%

Others

8% 6%

Total Market

4% 2% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


2016

2017

2018

Jul-14 168

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 4.8

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By IEC v. NEMA

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


561.0 2,653.0 211

708.2 2,769 256

826.2 2,883.4 287

949.6 2,987.1 318

1,087.6 3,110.6 350

1,187.5 3,254.6 365

1,312.9 3,431.7 383

1,425.1 3,611.0 395

1,557.9 3,792.0 411

1,701.9 3,976.8 428

13.1% 4.6% 8.1%


2,343.9 6,633.2 353

2,846.7 7,074.5 402

3,224.9 7,434.1 434

3,673.9 8,044.6 457

3,959.7 8,340.5 475

4,391.8 8,797.6 499

4,918.2 9,352.2 526

5,538.7 9,921.3 558

6,118.8 10,504.5 582

6,750.7 11,107.3 608

12.5% 5.9% 6.2%


2,904.9

3,554.9 22.4%

4,051.1 14.0%

4,623.5 14.1%

5,047.4 9.2%

5,579.2 10.5%

6,231.1 11.7%

6,963.9 11.8%

7,676.8 10.2%

8,452.6 10.1%

12.6%


9,286.2

9,843.9 10,317.5 11,031.7 11,451.0 12,052.2 12,783.9 13,532.3 14,296.6 15,084.1 6.0% 4.8% 6.9% 3.8% 5.2% 6.1% 5.9% 5.6% 5.5%

5.5%

Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

169

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 4.9

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By IEC Frame Size

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


162.2 1,786.8 91

205.0 1,867.1 110

234.4 1,932.9 121

276.9 2,003.9 138

320.0 2,087.7 153

350.5 2,187.6 160

390.3 2,308.4 169

431.4 2,429.8 178

470.7 2,546.0 185

511.5 2,668.1 192

13.6% 4.6% 8.7%


152.5 626.8 243

194.8 620.0 314

231.5 652.7 355

273.0 675.1 404

314.1 701.6 448

344.2 739.4 466

381.0 786.9 484

413.4 833.0 496

459.8 886.6 519

513.5 942.6 545

14.4% 4.6% 9.4%


165.9 231.3 717

214.9 273.0 787

259.0 288.2 898

289.3 298.6 969

328.6 310.8 1,057

362.0 317.0 1,142

402.0 325.7 1,234

434.9 337.3 1,289

476.2 348.5 1,366

516.4 355.2 1,454

13.4% 4.9% 8.2%


46.6 6.8 6,902

56.2 8.0 7,025

60.3 8.1 7,437

65.1 8.1 8,066

75.3 9.0 8,377

79.1 9.1 8,712

84.4 9.2 9,148

88.1 9.3 9,422

92.5 9.4 9,799

98.7 9.5 10,387

8.7% 3.9% 4.6%


32.2 1.3 25,356

35.5 1.3 27,308

39.0 1.4 28,546

43.0 1.4 29,901

47.1 1.4 32,783

49.1 1.4 34,094

52.5 1.5 36,139

54.6 1.5 37,585

55.8 1.4 39,088

58.5 1.4 41,434

6.9% 1.2% 5.6%


1.6 0.0 41,588

1.8 0.04 45,000

2.0 0.04 48,702

2.3 0.05 50,741

2.5 0.05 53,061

2.6 0.0 55,183

2.7 0.0 58,494

2.8 0.0 60,249

3.0 0.0 62,056

3.3 0.1 65,780

8.4% 3.0% 5.2%


561.0

708.2 26.2%

826.2 16.7%

949.6 14.9%

1,087.6 14.5%

1,187.5 9.2%

1,312.9 10.6%

1,425.1 8.5%

1,557.9 9.3%

1,701.9 9.2%

13.1%


2,653.0

2,769.4 4.4%

2,883.4 4.1%

2,987.1 3.6%

3,110.6 4.1%

3,254.6 4.6%

3,431.7 5.4%

3,611.0 5.2%

3,792.0 5.0%

3,976.8 4.9%

4.6%

Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

170

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 4.14

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors 600

12%

2013 Revenues

500

10%

Growth 2014

400

8%

Growth 2015

300

6%

200

4%

100

2%

0

0%

Source: IHS

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

By IEC Frame Size - Market Breakdown and Growth

Jul-14

Figure 4.15

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By IEC Frame Size - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 30%

80-100 112-132

25%

160-225

Growth (%)

20%

250-355 15%

400-560

10%

630 & above Total Market

5%

0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


2016

2017

2018

Jul-14 171

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 4.10

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By NEMA Frame Size

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


464.4 2,949.4 157

591.8 3,358.2 176

686.8 3,482.8 197

814.0 3,883.5 210

850.7 3,975.5 214

931.6 4,165.9 224

1,033.4 4,409.9 234

1,162.6 4,680.3 248

1,251.5 4,891.3 256

1,340.5 5,103.2 263

12.5% 6.3% 5.9%


397.4 1,690.9 235

492.1 1,673.5 294

546.7 1,849.1 296

629.7 1,984.8 317

700.4 2,061.0 340

766.3 2,157.9 355

863.1 2,319.2 372

966.7 2,450.4 395

1,049.9 2,583.9 406

1,113.4 2,665.5 418

12.1% 5.2% 6.6%


394.7 1,100.6 359

477.7 1,128.0 423

531.5 1,157.4 459

600.9 1,200.2 501

664.9 1,287.2 517

747.4 1,382.9 540

828.2 1,445.7 573

925.3 1,523.8 607

1,029.7 1,644.9 626

1,162.2 1,805.9 644

12.7% 5.7% 6.7%


500.6 723.0 692

645.9 741.5 871

769.7 768.0 1,002

881.8 797.6 1,106

987.1 835.5 1,181

1,109.3 898.9 1,234

1,256.8 972.4 1,292

1,439.6 1,051.4 1,369

1,630.9 1,154.2 1,413

1,867.3 1,287.1 1,451

15.8% 6.6% 8.6%


569.6 168.7 3,376

616.9 172.7 3,573

662.0 176.0 3,761

717.0 177.6 4,036

725.7 180.5 4,021

803.3 191.2 4,202

899.1 204.1 4,404

1,002.5 214.6 4,672

1,111.9 229.3 4,849

1,219.6 244.6 4,985

8.8% 4.2% 4.4%


17.2 0.56 30,704

22.3 0.66 33,491

28.1 0.83 33,722

30.6 0.88 34,707

31.0 0.80 38,894

34.0 0.8 40,645

37.6 0.9 42,596

42.1 0.9 45,151

44.9 1.0 46,963

47.7 1.0 48,278

12.0% 6.5% 5.2%


2,343.9

2,846.7 21.5%

3,224.9 13.3%

3,673.9 13.9%

3,959.7 7.8%

4,391.8 10.9%

4,918.2 12.0%

5,538.7 12.6%

6,118.8 10.5%

6,750.7 10.3%

12.5%


6,633.2

7,074.5 6.7%

7,434.1 5.1%

8,044.6 8.2%

8,340.5 3.7%

8,797.6 5.5%

9,352.2 6.3%

9,921.3 10,504.5 11,107.3 6.1% 5.9% 5.7%

5.9%

Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

172

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 4.16

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By NEMA Frame Size - Market Breakdown and Growth 1,200

1,000

14%

2013 Revenues

13%

Growth 2014 Growth 2015

12% 600

11% 400

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

800

10%

200

0

9%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 4.17

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By NEMA Frame Size - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 30%

56-145 25%

182-184

Growth (%)

20%

213-215

15%

254-326

10%

364-449

5%

5000 & above

0%

Total Market

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


2016

2017

2018

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Table 4.11

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Sales Channel

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


2,286.8 7,631.1 300

2,823.0 8,155.6 346

3,228.1 8,607.4 375

3,740.9 9,314.5 402

4,103.5 9,657.9 425

4,544.5 10,184.9 446

5,096.4 10,822.0 471

5,748.4 11,479.7 501

6,341.2 12,125.8 523

6,996.2 12,791.3 547

13.2% 5.9% 6.9%


282.4 690.0 409

351.4 731.0 481

401.8 760.2 529

460.2 799.3 576

498.8 858.7 581

546.2 915.8 596

598.7 984.2 608

635.8 1,028.3 618

667.1 1,057.8 631

691.7 1,085.9 637

10.5% 5.2% 5.0%


2,004.4 6,941.1 289

2,471.6 7,424.6 333

2,826.3 7,847.2 360

3,280.7 8,515.2 385

3,604.7 8,799.2 410

3,998.3 9,269.1 431

4,497.6 9,837.8 457

5,112.7 10,451.5 489

5,674.2 11,068.0 513

6,304.6 11,705.4 539

13.6% 6.0% 7.2%

85.8 212.4 404

106.1 215.0 493

120.2 219.8 547

128.2 220.2 582

137.9 233.7 590

151.8 244.7 620

168.1 259.7 648

180.3 270.8 666

195.9 281.8 695

210.4 292.8 718

10.5% 3.6% 6.6%



487.8 1,345.9 362

575.9 1,374.0 419

645.6 1,389.5 465

694.1 1,396.0 497

742.5 1,454.0 511

813.1 1,512.2 538

889.8 1,585.8 561

952.2 1,659.4 574

1,049.2 1,760.7 596

1,148.5 1,865.7 616

10.0% 3.7% 6.1%


353.5 948.2 373

423.3 964.0 439

469.3 976.6 481

505.8 979.7 516

549.3 1,030.6 533

605.7 1,080.4 561

659.7 1,142.5 577

710.1 1,205.8 589

774.0 1,270.0 609

838.6 1,335.9 628

10.1% 3.9% 6.0%


134.3 397.7 338

152.6 410.0 372

176.2 412.9 427

188.3 416.3 452

193.2 423.4 456

207.5 431.8 481

230.1 443.3 519

242.1 453.7 534

275.2 490.7 561

309.9 529.8 585

9.7% 3.2% 6.3%

44.5 96.7 460

49.9 99.3 503

57.2 100.8 568

60.3 101.0 597

63.4 105.5 602

69.8 110.4 632

76.8 116.5 660

83.0 122.3 678

90.5 128.2 705

97.5 134.2 727

9.1% 3.7% 5.2%


2,904.9

3,554.9 22.4%

4,051.1 14.0%

4,623.5 14.1%

5,047.4 9.2%

5,579.2 10.5%

6,231.1 11.7%

6,963.9 11.8%

7,676.8 10.2%

8,452.6 10.1%

12.6%


9,286.2

9,843.9 10,317.5 11,031.7 6.0% 4.8% 6.9%

13,532.3 14,296.6 15,084.1 5.9% 5.6% 5.5%

5.5%


11,451.0 12,052.2 12,783.9 3.8% 5.2% 6.1%

Source: IHS

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Figure 4.18

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Sales Channel - Market Breakdown and Growth 4,000

13%

2013 Revenues

12%

Growth 2014

11%

Growth 2015

3,500

2,500 2,000

10%

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

3,000

1,500

9% 1,000 8% 500 0

7%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 4.19

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Sales Channel - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 25%

Direct to End-user Direct to OEM

Growth (%)

20%

Direct to Sys Int

15%

Dist. to Enduser

10%

Dist. to OEM

Dist. to Sys Int

5%


2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


2016

2017

2018

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Table 4.12

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Power Rating

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


860.2 5,690.9 151

998.6 6,082.0 164

1,150.4 6,415.5 179

1,263.3 6,596.8 192

1,374.9 6,970.5 197

1,504.9 7,407.2 203

1,687.4 7,835.5 215

1,870.2 8,326.0 225

2,080.3 8,896.9 234

12.8% 5.8% 6.7%


938.6 3,056.1 307

1,068.4 3,274.7 326

1,202.9 3,604.9 334

1,315.2 3,745.4 351

1,482.7 3,909.5 379

1,685.7 4,112.4 410

1,909.8 4,340.1 440

2,101.4 4,522.4 465

2,267.8 4,646.3 488

13.0% 6.1% 6.5%

5.62-7.5kW (7.5-10HP) Revenues ($M) 518.0 Units (k) 875.6 ASP ($) 592

627.6 755.8 830

754.1 603.4 1,250

912.4 634.2 1,439

997.5 700.6 1,424

1,136.4 749.4 1,516

1,324.1 823.7 1,607

1,513.0 899.0 1,683

1,697.5 974.1 1,743

1,888.4 1,047.3 1,803

15.5% 2.0% 13.2%


594.2 297.0 2,000

653.9 311.2 2,101

722.9 327.4 2,208

789.2 355.2 2,222

859.6 368.4 2,333

947.7 385.0 2,462

1,037.6 401.5 2,585

1,144.4 417.7 2,740

1,234.0 433.9 2,844

10.8% 5.4% 5.1%


186.5 30.6 6,104

202.2 32.3 6,257

223.6 35.1 6,365

245.4 38.0 6,454

269.5 39.4 6,838

291.1 40.5 7,182

312.1 40.9 7,635

333.7 41.0 8,131

368.4 42.5 8,659

10.0% 5.4% 4.4%


238.3 10.9 21,822

256.1 11.2 22,845

282.4 11.8 23,938

300.9 12.2 24,676

313.9 12.2 25,663

329.2 12.3 26,690

343.7 12.4 27,757

357.0 12.4 28,867

414.3 13.8 30,022

8.8% 4.2% 4.4%


109.4 2.6 42,920

117.7 2.7 44,432

128.9 2.8 46,873

135.8 2.9 46,945

142.1 2.8 50,701

148.4 2.8 53,084

160.2 2.9 55,165

172.6 3.0 57,592

199.3 3.3 59,895

9.2% 3.7% 5.3%


2,904.9

3,554.9 22.4%

4,051.1 14.0%

4,623.5 14.1%

5,047.4 9.2%

5,579.2 10.5%

6,231.1 11.7%

6,963.9 11.8%

7,676.8 10.2%

8,452.6 10.1%

12.6%


9,286.2

9,843.9 10,317.5 11,031.7 11,451.0 12,052.2 12,783.9 13,532.3 14,296.6 15,084.1 6.0% 4.8% 6.9% 3.8% 5.2% 6.1% 5.9% 5.6% 5.5%

5.5%

Source: IHS

July 2014

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Figure 4.20

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Power Rating - Market Breakdown and Growth 1,600

2013 Revenues

16%

1,400

14%

Growth 2014

12%

Growth 2015

1,000 800

10%

600

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

1,200

8%

400

6%

200 0

4%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 4.21

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Power Rating - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 0.75-1.5kW (1-2HP)

25%

2.25-3.75kW (3-5HP)

20%

Growth (%)

5.62-7.5kW (7.5-10HP)

11.25-37.5kW (15-50HP)

15%

45-112.5kW (60-150HP)

10%

150-375kW (200-500HP) 376kW & above (>500HP) Total Market

5%

0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


2016

2017

2018

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Table 4.13

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Enclosure Type

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18

2,282.8 7,467.4 306

2,827.5 7,960.4 355

3,271.2 8,395.0 390

3,751.2 9,085.7 413

4,093.4 9,400.4 435

4,512.8 9,872.2 457

5,020.0 10,449.9 480

5,609.4 11,042.7 508

6,173.4 11,650.6 530

6,787.5 12,275.8 553

12.9% 5.7% 6.8%


2,525.2 7,342.9 344

2,866.2 7,735.0 371

3,216.3 8,319.5 387

3,497.4 8,593.0 407

3,872.5 9,044.1 428

4,325.3 9,593.2 451

4,860.1 10,154.8 479

5,368.2 10,728.3 500

5,918.7 11,319.3 523

12.5% 5.6% 6.5%

225.5 561.1 402

302.3 617.5 490

405.0 660.1 614

534.8 766.2 698

595.9 807.4 738

640.3 828.1 773

694.7 856.7 811

749.3 887.9 844

805.3 922.3 873

868.8 956.5 908

16.2% 6.1% 9.5%


13.9 51.8 269

18.2 52.3 348

21.3 55.1 387

26.9 55.9 481

28.7 50.8 565

29.9 52.4 570

30.8 53.1 579

32.0 54.9 582

33.4 56.5 591

34.6 58.2 595

10.6% 1.3% 9.2%

TENV: non-hazardous Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

11.3 44.5 254

15.1 44.8 337

17.1 46.5 368

22.2 47.2 470

23.8 42.2 565

24.8 43.8 566

25.4 44.5 571

26.5 46.3 572

27.8 48.1 577

28.8 49.8 578

11.0% 1.3% 9.6%


2.7 7.4 361

3.1 7.5 417

4.2 8.6 490

4.7 8.7 540

4.8 8.6 562

5.1 8.6 593

5.3 8.6 621

5.5 8.5 641

5.7 8.5 671

5.8 8.3 702

9.1% 1.3% 7.7%


485.5 1,386.0 350

513.3 1,408.3 365

586.4 1,420.1 413

654.3 1,513.3 432

737.6 1,619.9 455

846.6 1,749.8 484

972.2 1,894.0 513

1,086.2 2,024.9 536

1,210.7 2,161.8 560

12.8% 5.5% 7.0%


223.7 445.2 502

245.2 459.0 534

259.1 470.0 551

271.1 486.5 557

299.0 507.7 589

333.7 531.1 628

350.3 540.8 648

383.7 564.5 680

419.8 588.3 714

8.6% 3.6% 4.8%

4,051.1 14.0%

4,623.5 14.1%

5,047.4 9.2%

5,579.2 10.5%

6,231.1 11.7%

6,963.9 11.8%

7,676.8 10.2%

8,452.6 10.1%

12.6%

13,532.3 14,296.6 15,084.1 5.9% 5.6% 5.5%

5.5%


TEFC: hazardous Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($) TENV: Total


2,904.9

3,554.9 22.4%


9,286.2

9,843.9 10,317.5 11,031.7 6.0% 4.8% 6.9%

11,451.0 12,052.2 12,783.9 3.8% 5.2% 6.1%

Source: IHS

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Figure 4.22

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Enclosure Type - Market Breakdown and Growth 4,500 4,000

16%

2013 Revenues

14%

Growth 2014

3,500 12%

Growth 2015

2,500

10%

2,000

8%

1,500

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

3,000

6%

1,000 4%

500 0

2%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 4.23

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Enclosure Type - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 35%

TEFC: nonhazardous

Growth (%)

30%

TEFC: hazardous

25%

TENV: nonhazardous

20%

TENV: hazardous

15%

ODP: nonhazardous

10%

Other: nonhazardous

5%

Total Market

0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


2016

2017

2018

Jul-14 179

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Table 4.14

The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors Shares by Revenue

Company Name

2013 Share

1.

ABB

21.0%

2

WEG

16.5%

3

Regal Beloit

6.0%

4

Nidec

5.0%

5.

Siemens

4.5%

6.

GE

3.0%

7.

TECO

2.5%

8.

Toshiba

2.0%

Others

39.5%

Note 1: The market in 2013 was estimated to be worth $5,047.4 million. Note 2: Market shares have been rounded to nearest 0.5%.

Source: IHS

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Chapter Five

The Asia-Pacific market for low-voltage motors  Growth of <5% in recovering Chinese market in 2013  Delayed start of IE2 transition in China  Japan starts to transition to IE3 in 2015

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5.0 Introduction This chapter presents and analyzes consolidated market statistics for the Asia-Pacific market for industrial low voltage integral horsepower motors with power ratings at or above 0.75kW/1HP. The statistics presented in this chapter are provide market sizes in terms of both revenues in millions of US dollars (represented as $M), and unit shipments in thousands (represented as ‘k’ units). The base year for the analyses is 2013, with forecasts from 2014 through 2018. Historical market sizes are provided for 2009 through 2012, for reference.

5.1 The Asia-Pacific market for low-voltage motors The Asia-Pacific market for LV motors experienced positive growth in 2013 after a rare revenue contraction in 2012 of 0.8%. In 2013, the region’s market was estimated to be worth $5,540 million, with over 25 million units shipped during the year. The AsiaPacific region was the least impacted by the global recession that began in late 2008, and the region’s LV motor market did not suffer a contraction in revenues or units during 2009. However, growth in the Chinese LV motor market began to slow drastically in mid-2012, with reports of idle factories by some local manufacturers. Chinese Exports of LV motors remained strong during 2011 and most of 2012. The slowing of the Chinese LV motor market after the Beijing Olympics has had a dramatic effect on the entire region’s market performance, resulting in a rare contraction in revenues, and poor unit shipment growth from 2011. China officially began its transition to IE2/GB3 towards the end of 2012 around the same time when the slowdown in the market became apparent. It is thought that the contraction in the Chinese market in 2012 has resulted in a very weak start to the shift to IE2 LV motors. China rebounded to revenue growth of 4.6% in 2013, while Australia suffered a severe contraction during the year of 8.1%. The poor results in Australia are thought to be primarily the result of the global mining slowdown. There are over 2,000 electric motor companies operating in China alone, most with modest LV revenues of $1-20 million per year, and many generating LV motor revenues of $20-80 million per year. However, it is important to note the region’s overall ASP for LV motors is 65-70% lower than the other regions. Use of cheaper, lower quality raw materials, which often leads to the production of motors with significantly lower efficiency ratings, and availability of low cost labor in the region are both key factors that allow Chinese suppliers to keep their prices low. Plans for a transition to IE3/GB2 LV motors in 2016 have been announced by China, although no specific transition date has been made official. As part of Japan’s ‘Top Runner’ program, instituted by the Law Concerning the Rational Use of Energy, legislation introduced in 2014 will prompt the Japanese industry to transition to IE3 LV motors beginning in 2015. At this time, Japan will be the only industrialized nation that will have skipped the shift to IE2, instead transitioning it mostly IE1 installed base to IE3. The Indian Bureau of Energy Efficiency officially recognized the IE2 and IE3 classes of LV motors in 2011 in order to begin working on standards and labeling. However, an announcement of a transition date to higher efficiency LV motor in India has yet to become official. The Asia-Pacific market for LV motors is expected to generate modest revenue growth through 2014. Due to the significant slowdown in the Chinese LV motor market in 2012 and modest growth in 2013. The transition to IE2 in China will be delayed, with significant evidence of transition to IE2 motors gaining momentum towards the later part of the forecast period. Major South Korean motor manufacturers reported that in 2013, only 50% of their product mix of LV motors are IE2 motors. As the transition to IE2 motors in South Korea officially started in 2008, this delayed transition has also contributed to the delayed onset of strong revenue growth from IE2 motors in the region. The slowdown in the Chinese market in 2012 has resulted in almost no change in the market value for IE1 motors in the region in 2013. Thusly, strong revenue growth of 10.0% or above due to inorganic drivers (energy efficiency regulations) is not expected until 2017.

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5.1.1 The Asia-Pacific market for low-voltage motors by efficiency class Table 5.1 & Figures 5.1, 5.2 and 5.3 IE1 LV motors still account for the vast majority of the Asia-Pacific LV motor market in 2013, with almost no change from 2012 levels. The IE1 motor segment in the region accounted for $4,521 million, or 82% of revenues and over 89% of units shipped. The IE1 market will remain strong as many smaller countries in the region have yet to establish minimum energy efficiency regulations for LV motors. India is expected to become the largest market for IE1 motors during the forecast period. It is estimated that by the end of 2018, the IE1 market will still account for over $4,400 million, or 52% of the regions’ LV motor revenues. IE2 LV motors have been slow to gain traction in the region, despite Australia and South Korea establishing minimum energy efficiency regulations mandating the transition to IE2 5-7 years prior to when this report was written. In 2013, IE2 motors accounted for $617 million, or just over 11% of revenues and 9% of units shipped. The IE2 market is expected to grow to over $2,600 million by the end of 2018. China’s transition to IE2 (GB3) and the continuing transitions in Australia and South Korea give the IE2 market great upside potential in the region and thusly, a forecast CAGR of 41.5% for revenues in this segment is expected. The Chinese Government is offering LV motor rebate incentives based on the 2009 initiative “Energy Conservation and Benefits to the People Program.” The rebates incentivize the transition to IE2 (GB3) motors in China as follows: for motors in the power range 0.55kW to 315kW (0.74HP to 422HP), the rebate ranges from 15¥ to 40¥ per kW; in the power range 315kW to 25MW (422HP to 33,525HP), the rebate is 12¥ per kW. From 2013 reported data from major Chinese manufacturers, it seems that the rebates have had almost no effect on the transition to IE2 in the country. As of 2013, IE3 LV motor revenues did not gain significant traction in the region. This could change significantly in the coming years if China officially announces a legislative push towards IE3. However, anticipation of this expectation from China should be considered with the historically the slow, ongoing transition to IE2 that the Chinese market is experiencing currently. It is thought to some degree of certainty that if the IE3 transition is released in 2016, the transition will not gain significant momentum until 2018 or later. The IE3 market in the region is expected to generate a CAGR of 73.0% for revenues through 2018, but will still maintain only a minority share of just over 10% in the region’s LV motor market revenues at that time. Contrary to assumptions and expectations about China’s IE4 motor market mentioned in previous editions of this report, it was found that domestic production of IE4 motors in the country has not yet begun in earnest. Most IE4 motors sold into China are still from European manufacturers. It was thought with some certainty that China’s stranglehold on domestically produced REMs in addition to exports caps on these minerals would launch the IE4 market into robust growth. The country is a major producer of REMs, especially dysprosium and neodymium essential in producing the high powered magnets used in IE4 motors. Like for IE2 (GB3), a rebate also exists for neodymium-based IE4 LV motors in the power range 0.55kW to 315kW (0.74HP to 422HP), offering 40¥ to 60¥ per kW. IE4 LV motors accounted for $28.9 million or just over 0.5% of revenues in the region in 2013 and less than 0.5% of units shipped. Despite this re-evaluation of the IE4 motor market in the Asia-Pacific region, IHS continues to forecast a highly favorable CAGR of 58.3% for revenues in the region during the forecast period. As was mentioned in Chapter 2, Lynas Corporation of Australia recently entered the REM processing market with a production and processing facility in Malaysia. However, this is not expected to significantly drive revenues for the IE4 motor market in the region. The erosion of the global DC motor market is apparent in the Asia-Pacific region as well, as the DC motor market is estimated to have been reduced to quarter of what it was in 2009, and is expected to be less than a tenth of that by the end of the forecast period. The DC motor market accounted for $52.1 million, or 1.0% of revenues and 0.8% of units shipped. The continual erosion of this market is due to the ongoing global transition to AC induction motors in the factory automation environment. Over the last 3 years, China and Japan have been aggressive in turning over their respective installed-bases of DC “mill motors” to AC induction. Manufacturers have reported that the steel industry in both these countries have almost fully transformed into AC induction motor-based production. Due to these factors which are expected to continue, the DC motor market in the region is forecast to generate a CAGR of negative 24.0% for revenues through 2018.

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5.1.2 The Asia-Pacific market for low-voltage motors by region Tables 5.2 & Figures 5.4 and 5.5

China With growth rates among the highest in the world, China's potential must be weighed against the challenges that the economy still faces, as it completes its transition to full market-economy status. China still has significant presence in the industrial sector and an overwhelmingly dominant presence in the banking and energy sectors. For 2013, IHS maintained the China growth forecast at 7.8%, but has made a modest upward revision to the real GDP growth forecast for China in 2014 to 8.1% to reflect the moderate improvement in external demand. China has abundant mineral resources and is the world's largest coal producer and has the world's largest reserves in minerals such as tungsten and zinc. The central region supports a significant industrial base, including coal, petroleum, petrochemicals, iron, steel, copper, aluminum, phosphorous, mercury, tin, nickel, mercury, manganese, molybdenum, vanadium, magnetite, molybdenum, antimony and lead. The country also possesses energy resources, including coal, natural gas, and the radioactive minerals uranium and thorium. Exports of certain minerals became a diplomatic issue in 2010 and 2011. China was producing more than 95% of the world's rare earth metals each year at the time. The World Trade Organization subsequently ruled that China had violated international trade regulations through its restrictions. China's coal transportation infrastructure, especially rail networks, cannot meet demand. The government has inaugurated a large-scale program to improve the ability of its rail network to carry coal, but this remains a limiting factor in overall coal supply. The government has worked to improve the infrastructure for extracting, importing and distributing coal. In particular, it has increased the capacity of ports to receive coal shipments with the main imports coming from Vietnam and Indonesia. Nonetheless, China continues to increase its coal production and consumption. The country boasts over 20,000 producing coal mines and approximately two-thirds of its electricity generation comes from coal. Coal is expected to remain the dominant feedstock in the power generation mix and is expected to still account for over 50% of China's electricity generation in 2020. In 2010, China's raw coal output totaled 3.82 billion tons. During the year, China discovered 43.6 billion tons of new coal deposits. Several projects exist for the development of coal-fired power plants colocated with large mines. Exploration in 2010 also revealed 7.98 billion tons of iron ore, 610 tons of gold resources, 3.71 million tons of copper, 4.93 million tons of lead, and 7.83 million tons of zinc. Driven by its low-cost labor advantage, China’s light and heavy manufacturing sectors continue to boom. China is rapidly developing a reputation its high-tech industries, although in the past, the emphasis has been on hardware rather than software. Refining industries are also booming as demand from local industries soars. Massive contracts have been associated with the project to build a pipeline network across China linking the energy fields in central Asia with the booming east coast, the development of China's fuel retail networks, and the emergence of a market for LNG in China. Shale gas production is expected to account for 8-10% of natural gas production by 2020, and in April 2011, PetroChina completed the first horizontal shale gas well in Sichuan. However, there are two major barriers to increased dependence on natural gas to supply the country's energy needs: infrastructure needs and regulatory limitations. China's energy infrastructure has historically been biased towards coalfired plants. With rising energy needs, and faced with the significant environmental costs of its present dependence on coal for electricity generation, China is likely to increase its natural gas consumption in the coming years, as its 12th Five Year Plan calls for the country to increase the share of natural gas in its power generation mix. Natural gas-fired generation is expected to see the greatest growth in generation capacity over the coming years. The capacity of natural gas-fired generation is currently approximately 33GW, but is expected to expand to 10GW by 2020.

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Reduced dependence on imported fuel has driven the government to push for increased reliance on alternative sources of energy. Beijing is constructing more natural gas power plants and has increased its emphasis on other sources of energy, especially nuclear and hydroelectric power. By the end of 2011, China had an electricity generating capacity of 1,073GW, the vast majority of which was coal-fired. As of October 2012, 15 nuclear power plants were in operation in China. However, nuclear power's total installed generating capacity is extremely low at 12.5GW. Nevertheless, the government is targeting between 60GW and 70GW of capacity to come online by 2020. There are 26 nuclear power plants currently under construction, which are projected to increase capacity to 40GW by 2015. Although sources like wind and solar energy are used in China, the main alternative sources of energy in the government's plans are nuclear and hydroelectric power. With several major rivers, China possesses tremendous hydropower potential, as evident in the construction of the 18,200MW Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River, the largest hydroelectric project in the world. China's installed hydropower generating capacity was 231GW at the end of 2011. According to current plans, total capacity will increase to 1,440GW by 2015. Wind is the leading renewable source of power generation, and the government aims to have 100GW of installed wind power capacity by 2020, up from its previous target of 30GW. The Chinese LV motor market experienced rebound growth of 4.6% in 2013 after a contraction of 7.0% in 2012. The Chinese MV motor market is estimated to have been worth $2,922 million in 2013, with 13,259k units sold. Weak LV motor sales to the cement and metal industries are forecast to be offset by strength in sales into the oil & gas, water & wastewater, power generation, chemical, and mining industries. As a result, Chinese MV motor revenues are forecast to improve during the latter part of the forecast period. Chinese industrial sectors are expected to recover once major trading partners in North America and Europe recover from their respective economic troubles. With a forecast revenue CAGR of 8.2% and units shipped CAGR of 5.0% over the forecast period, the Chinese LV motor market is predicted to perform slightly below the region’s average of 8.4%.

India Following a decade of nearly double-digit growth fueled by massive investment levels and impressive savings rates, India’s economy has recently been losing steam. Investment, both domestic and foreign, has been stifled by intrusive market regulation, poor infrastructure, supply bottlenecks, inflexible labor market practices, and recurring fiscal deficits. Growth in the manufacturing has slowed, with the sector’s competitiveness in the global market slowly eroding. Inflows of foreign direct investment, crucial to spurring the development of manufacturing, remain low compared to neighboring powerhouse China. Although gradually waning, the contribution from the country’s net exports supported a mild recovery in growth throughout the second half of 2013, in addition to the government’s push to boost infrastructure investment. However, public investment is currently being stalled by numerous bureaucratic hurdles. Interestingly, India's underutilization of resources, which implies that the economy is not fully utilizing its growth potential, translates into an economic advantage in the long term. India’s leading export category is textiles and garments, gems, jewelry, machinery, chemicals and automobile parts. The fiscal year 2013 growth forecast was 4.6%. IHS expects GDP growth of 5.6% for 2014, despite the current slowdown in economic momentum. India is the world's third-largest coal producer (following China and the United States) and has proven reserves of 75 billion tons and estimated reserves of approximately 200 billion tons. Sixty-six percent of extracted coal is used in power generation. A full 90% of India's 390 coal mines are run by the state-owned Coal India Ltd, and current policy only allows private firms to operate mines if they are directly attached to a power plant or factory. India faced a shortage of 142 million tons of coal in 2011-12, and had an electricity production shortfall of around 13%. Mineral production in the country came from a reported 2,628 mines, producing 89 minerals: 4 fuel minerals, 11 metallic minerals, 52 non-metallic minerals (including 11 atomic minerals) and 22 minor minerals. In addition, India has reserves of bauxite, chromite, lignite, limestone, dolomite, china clay, fire clay, copper, kyanite, lead, zinc, manganese, nickel and phosphorite. India possesses some of the largest reserves of iron ore in the world, with estimated reserves of 22 million tons.

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The government is seeking to add approximately 100GW of new electricity generating capacity through 2017. Adverse weather affected hydroelectric projects and contributed to the shortfall in building up the nation’s power generating capacity in the last two years, resulting in several foreign power companies withdrawing from major agreements to invest in the power sector. Although India has 20 nuclear reactors, it was effectively barred from purchasing power plant components and nuclear fuel due to its refusal to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Nuclear power plants provide around 4.2% of power generation, and the plan is to increase this to 9.0% by 2022. The majority of India's generating capacity is coal-fired, followed by hydroelectric power, which account for around one-quarter of India's total installed capacity. Eight countries have signed agreements on civil nuclear co-operation with India, most notably the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Russia. It is estimated that the nuclear market in India may be worth $175 billion over the next 40 years, with projected purchases of 21 foreign reactors to reach a nuclear power capacity of 63,000MW by 2032, well above its current level of 4,560MW. Russia has already agreed to build as many as 12 reactors in India. The Indian LV motor market experienced better growth of 5.1% in 2013 after lower growth of 4.4% in 2012. The Indian market is estimated to have been worth $536 million in 2013, with 3.363k units sold. Growth rates for this market are expected to be good for the remainder of the forecast period, as India’s economic engine seems to be recovering from two consecutive years of modest growth. India has yet to establish energy efficiency regulations and is thought to be a steady market for IE1 motors for the remainder of the forecast period. The Indian LV motor market is predicted to perform slightly below the region’s average of 8.2% in terms of revenues, with a forecast revenue CAGR of 8.2% through 2018.

Japan The Japanese economy remained weak and contracted for several months after the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami. The mild recovery of exports and solid imports are likely to continue, reflecting soft global growth and the downside from the exodus of Japan’s manufacturing industry. The almost 20-year deflationary trend is now nearing an end, thanks to the increased monetary expansion in recent years. The massive earthquake and tsunami caused major disruptions to the global supply chain and, hence, Japan’s exports. As recovery proceeded and factories' capacities were restored, exports began to rebound. These gains were set back late in 2011 though, when the Thailand floods slowed production of Japanese offshore factories. Trade is currently anemic; the weak currency has boosted the yen value of exports, but has also boosted the yen value of imports, which are running high because of imports of fuel to offset the shutdown of nuclear power plants. Japan has been moving to pursue free trade agreements (FTAs) with a string of countries, in order to address fears that it is falling behind its regional competitors, China and South Korea, in securing bilateral FTAs with Asian countries, and to obtain access to essential natural resources. The exodus of Japan’s manufacturing sector continues despite exporters gaining price competitiveness from the weakening of the yen. Japan’s fuel imports should decrease as nuclear power plants return to operation, likely in 2014. The Japanese LV motor market experienced a modest revenue growth of 5.2% in 2012, followed by good growth of 8.4% in 2013. The country was hurt by the natural disaster in 2011, but the rebuilding and upgrading of part of the nation’s power generating infrastructure is expected to drive strong growth in the medium term. IHS predicts that LV motor sales will be primarily driven by increased sales into the oil & gas, water & wastewater, and metals industries. Japan’s reduced use of nuclear energy is predicted to result in an increased use of natural gas and possibly coal. An important source of energy for Japan is predicted to come from imported natural gas via LNG tankers from abroad. The Japanese market is estimated to have been worth $570 million in 2013, with 1,675k units sold. IHS expects the transition to IE3 motors in Japan, promoted by the Top Runner Program, to occur in 2015, with a rapid escalation of IE3 motors being sold in to the country. This is thought to cause strong revenue growth in the country’s LV motor market during the forecast period. With a forecast revenue CAGR of 10.0% and units shipped CAGR of 5.7% over the forecast period, the Japanese LV motor market is predicted to perform significantly above the region’s average.

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Australia Sub-trend growth in Australia in 2013 was the result of slowing growth in mining investment spending and unfavorable base effects after a strong start in 2012. Unwinding of the mining investment boom and subdued global growth will weigh on Australia's economy. IHS estimated economic growth of 2.3% for 2013, and forecasts this to increase to 2.4% for 2014 as investment activity is expected to remain weak. The small increase in growth from 2013 to 2014 is based on limited expectations for a recovery in non-mining investment to offset weakening mining investment, implying mining investment activity has reached its plateau. While equipment spending is weakening, there remains a significant pipeline of mining-related construction activity to be carried out in the near term. The global demand for LNG helped Australia set new records of LNG production in 2010. However, The La Niña weather system brought heavy flooding and cyclones to Australia in early 2011 and highlighted the susceptibility of the Australian economy to natural disasters. The minerals sector is projected to be constrained by subdued global growth, which will weigh on export prices and the sector's investment activity. The country is a leading exporter of the raw materials needed for steel production, including high-iron-orecontent haematite and coking coal. However, iron ore prices are expected to largely track sideways if not rise modestly, as subdued demand and the continued overproduction of steel in China will prevent a sharp rise in prices. This is expected to result in slowing mining investment growth, but is thought to be led by machinery and equipment than construction spending. The generally weaker commodity prices are expected to weigh on export receipts, which will prevent new mining sector investments from entering the pipeline. The Australian LV motor market experienced contraction of 8.1% in 2012 after a strong growth of 13.3% in 2012. However, the global mining slowdown hit Australia hard in 2013, negatively affecting what has traditionally been a stalwart industry sector in the country. Mining investment is expected to resume to historical high-growth levels as the EMEA region’s economy recovers and the Chinese industrial sector emerges from its temporary slowdown. The Australian market is estimated to have been worth $210 million in 2013, with 643k units sold. However, growth rates for this market are expected to remain low through 2016, and increase towards the end of the forecast period. With a forecast revenue CAGR of 8.3% and units shipped CAGR of 5.0%, the Australian MV motor market is predicted to perform slightly below the region’s average.

South Korea For more than a decade, the South Korean economy has benefited from the combination of relatively low wages and high efficiency. Its capital investments are now largely market-driven. The only major problem is with shareholder rights, where founding families retain control far in excess of their actual stockholdings. The country is moving away from heavy industry into a more service-oriented economy. Exports and imports in the nation rebounded in 2011, but the global slowdown has since taken its toll, with South Korean exports becoming relatively flat. After rebounding to 6.3% in 2010, real GDP growth fell to 3.7% in 2011 and further to 2.0% in 2012. The Korean economy performed well in the first half of 2013, posting 2.7% growth. However, this is expected begin to taper off by the second quarter of 2014, as IHS expects further growth to 3.5%. South Korea is relatively poor in natural resources. The country's sparse mineral resources include coal, tungsten, iron ore, molybdenum, limestone, and graphite. South Korea's industry accounts for 41% of the nation's economy. The country exports a variety of manufactured goods, including steel, automobiles, ships, chemicals, clothing, television sets, household appliances, computers and semiconductors. The South Korean LV motor market experienced good growth of 9.7% in 2013 after steady growth of 6.8% in 2012. The South Korean market is estimated to have been worth $479 million in 2013, with 1,746k units sold. Growth rates for this market are expected to be steady for the remainder of the forecast period as the country is expected to shift into a service-oriented economy while still remaining a major producer of automobiles and infrastructure building equipment. With a forecast revenue CAGR of 8.0% and units shipped CAGR of 4.3%, the South Korean MV motor market is predicted to perform slightly below the region’s average.

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Taiwan Taiwan’s economic momentum remains threatened by lingering external factors as policy uncertainties and fiscal troubles in the advanced economies continue to weigh on global prospects. Its surprisingly weak third quarter of 2013 was characterized by lower-than-expected exports and contributed to the low GDP growth of 3.0% in 2013. In particular, worries over China’s economy have remained, despite some recent upticks. Overall, a strong rebound in overseas demand remains unlikely, suggesting future restrained momentum in the island's exports and export-reliant economy. A moderate improvement is still expected in late 2014 when the global economy is projected to pick up some momentum and the island's key electronic sector is projected to continue to tap into increasing global demand for smartphones and tablet computers. IHS expects the Taiwanese economy to grow on average 4% each year from 2014–18. Relocation of manufacturing bases to mainland China and the dissolution of old, heavy industry has resulted in a sharp increase in long-term unemployment. Taiwan's output is dominated by the high-tech sector. The country faces growing overseas competition, notably in China and Singapore. In addition to semiconductors, other high value-added industries requiring skilled labor that have found Taiwan an attractive investment location include integrated circuits, TFT-LCD screens, optical electronic equipment, photoelectric chips, and dynamic random access memory technology. The government is keen to expand the biotechnology sector, including pharmaceuticals. Biotech industrial parks have been established in northern, southern, and eastern Taiwan. Taiwan’s natural resources are scarce, and few have economic value. The island contains insufficient energy minerals, relatively significant deposits of coal, and some insignificant oil and natural gas deposits. Nevertheless, Taiwan is rich in wind energy resources, both onshore and offshore. This, coupled with solar energy, provide potential alternative energy resources. In terms of non-metallic minerals, significant deposits include natural sand, limestone, marble, dolomite, and asbestos. Concurrently, Taiwan has insignificant deposits of metallic minerals, such as gold, copper, and aluminum. Much of its forestry resources were exhausted during Japanese rule, and the remaining forests do not provide significant timber production. The Taiwanese MV motor market experienced a healthy growth of 9.1% in 2013 after similar growth of 9.2%% in 2012. The Taiwanese market is estimated to have been worth $336 million in 2013, with 1,827k units sold. Growth rates for this market are expected to be steady for the remainder of the forecast period. At revenue CAGR of 7.8% and unit CAGR of 4.8%, the Taiwanese LV motor market is predicted to underperform the region’s average during the forecast period.

Thailand Following an upsurge in growth in 2011, in large part due to post-flood reconstruction, the Thai economy is slowing. The shortterm outlook for Thailand is intensifying economic deceleration. Thailand’s economic performance remains very dependent on investment and exports, and both of these sectors face considerable risks going forward. In light of growing competition from China, Vietnam, Indonesia, and other regional manufacturing centers, moving up the value-added chain is the Thai economy's challenge. Light manufacturing, particularly in the electronics sector, is a mainstay of the Thai economy. Currently, the country is uncomfortably stuck somewhere between a major agricultural and successful light industry producer, which has resulted in a failure to build up higher-value industries such as high-tech or bio-tech. The electronics industry seems to be experiencing a difficult recovery, with output still not back to pre-flood levels, and in light of the sector’s sizable exports, this suggests export performance will remain disappointing in the near term. The post-flood surge in investment and private consumption pushed growth to 6.5% in 2012, but there has been a sizable loss of momentum in recent quarters. The economy was signaling a technical recession following a weak second quarter of 2013. Figures from the third quarter of 2013 were also weaker than anticipated, and in light of recent political upheaval, IHS downgraded 2013 GDP growth to 2.9% and 2014 growth to 3.9%. Thailand enjoys a good mix of natural resources, which support its main industries. Thailand is one of the world's largest producers of tin, which it has capitalized on with the construction of a smelter for domestic processing. Other important mineral resources include lignite coal, zinc, gypsum, fluorite, limestone, marble, and tungsten. Thailand is also one of the world's largest exporters of precious gems, especially sapphires and rubies. Agricultural resources include rice, fisheries, and extensive forestry reserves. However, agricultural exports are undermined by the government's continued rice acquisition scheme, which has artificially inflated prices of Thai rice and led to the country losing its spot as the world's leading rice exporter.

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Thailand’s small LV motor market experienced a strong growth of 14.8% in 2013 after growth of 11.2% in 2012. The country’s market is estimated to have been worth $208 million in 2013, with 1,168 units sold. With a forecast revenue CAGR of 8.1% and units shipped CAGR of 5.3% over the forecast period, Thailand’s LV motor market is predicted to perform below the region’s average.

5.1.3 The Asia-Pacific market for low-voltage motors by application Tables 5.3a and 5.3b & Figures 5.6 and 5.7 Compressors, fans and pumps accounted for the majority of LV motor revenues for the region. To further illustrate how significant the Chinese market performance is to the region’s overall performance, the slowdown in the Chinese market during 2012, and the rebound growth of 4.6% in 2103 had the dramatic effect of producing rare contractions in almost every application sector in the region for two consecutive years. Subsequently, these three historically strong sectors are forecast to perform at the market average of 8.5% during the forecast period. China became the #1 shipbuilding and the #1 steel producing nation in the world during 2010 and 2011. However, a drastic slowdown in the shipbuilding industry has resulted into massive consolidation among the remaining profitable Chinese shipyards. Conveyors, Cranes & Hoists, Printing, and Propulsion are all expected to underperform the region’s average during the forecast period.

5.1.4 The Asia-Pacific market for low-voltage motors by manufacturing sector Tables 5.4, 5.5a, 5.5b, 5.6 and 5.7 & Figures 5.8, 5.9, 5.10, 5.11, 5.12 and 5.13

Discrete manufacturing sector The Discrete Sector (machine builders/OEMs) experienced 6.1% revenue growth in 2013 after a 0.8% contraction during 2012, and was estimated to account for over 69% of revenues in the region and 75% of units shipped during the year. The Discrete Manufacturing is predicted to slightly outperform the market average at 8.6% during the forecast period. Commercial HVAC and Food, Beverage & Tobacco are the largest discrete sectors in the region, as they are in the other two regions. However, these historically stable sectors were not impervious to the Chinese market’s slowdown, with the Compressors market having suffered a rare contraction of 0.9% during 2012. This is due mainly to the housing and commercial construction industry in China rapidly cooling off during the year, resulting in vacant office buildings and vacant urban residencies. The Commercial HVAC market segment is expected to slightly outperform the market average and forecast to generate a CAGR of 8.6% through 2018. Food, Beverage & Tobacco, Packaging & Labeling and Textiles are all expected to outperform the region’s market average during the forecast period. Mining in China, Australia and other parts of the Asia-Pacific region are expected to continue to grow steadily for the remainder of the forecast period after a major slowdown in 2013. Underperforming sectors are expected to be Automotive, Refrigeration, Semiconductor, and Shipbuilding & Marine.

Process manufacturing sector The Process Sector (end-users) grew a modest 5.1% in revenues in 2013, after a 0.8% contraction in 2012, and accounted for 26% of the region’s LV motor revenues and 18% of units. The sector is forecast to underperform the market average at 7.9% during the forecast period. During the forecast period, only Pharmaceuticals and Power Generation – Nuclear & Fossil are forecast to significantly outperform the market average at 9.5% and 10.0% , respectively.

Others manufacturing sector The Other Manufacturing sector in the region was estimated to be worth 241$ million in 2013 with 1,567k units shipped. The sector is predicted to perform under the regional market average, generating a CAGR of 8.0% for revenues during the forecast period. Both Building Automation and Infrastructure are forecast to outperform the global market average during the forecast period, generating CAGRs for revenues of 8.7% and 10.6%, respectively.

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5.1.5 The Asia-Pacific market for low-voltage motors by frame size Tables 5.8, 5.9 and 5.10 & Figures 5.14, 5.15, 5.16 and 5.17 The Asia-Pacific market for LV motors is almost entirely comprised of IEC frame size LV motors. Like in the EMEA region, a small NEMA frame market exists but is relegated to export machinery to NEMA-centric North America, and to a lesser extent replacement of NEMA motors in the installed base. The IEC market is expected to perform at the market average of 8.4% through 2018. The majority of LV motors sold into the Asia-Pacific region are between 80 and 225 IEC frame sizes, as these segments are all expected to perform at or above the market average during the forecast period. Revenues for IEC frame LV motors in the region are predicted to grow steadily from organic demand through 2018, but will also be heavily influenced by inorganic revenue resulting from China’s transition to more expensive IE2 LV motors that began in September 2012. However, as was mentioned this transition has been greatly delayed and is expected to gain momentum during the latter part of the forecast period. As mentioned, the NEMA market in the Asia-Pacific region is relatively insignificant. IHS received reported data for revenues for various NEMA frame sizes, albeit in very small quantities. These are the only NEMA frame sizes that show revenue and unit values in Table 5.10. Revenues from NEMA frame LV motors sold to OEMs in this region will be more positively influenced by the transition to IE2 and IE3/NEMA Premium LV motors in the export markets of Brazil and North America than they will be by organic demand from the OEMs themselves. However, this trend could change as Asian OEMs are increasingly using IEC frame LV motors in their exported machinery, where in previous years NEMA frame LV motors were used in these machines. Consequently, the NEMA frame LV motor market in the Asia-Pacific region is predicted to greatly underperform the market, generating a CAGR of 3.0% during the forecast period.

5.1.6 The Asia-Pacific market for low-voltage motors by sales channel Table 5.11 & Figures 5.18 and 5.19 The OEMs/machine builders in the region have a strong influence on sales channels for LV motors as Direct and Distribution to OEM channels account for 67% of revenues on the region. The Direct to OEM channel was affected minimally during the global recession. However, the channel rebounded with 6.2% growth in 2013 after 0.2% growth during 2012. The Direct to OEM channel is predicted to outperform the market average at a CAGR for revenues at 8.4%. The OEM distribution channel is expected to perform at the region’s market with a CAGR of 8.4% for revenues. Systems integrators are usually associated with purchases of very large, high powered motors. Both Direct and Distribution channels are expected to outperform the market average at 9.9% and 9.8%, respectively. IHS expects both systems integrators channels to benefit with double-digit year-on-year growth towards the end of the forecast period due to the region’s emerging economies and anticipated infrastructure expansion.

5.1.7 The Asia-Pacific market for low-voltage motors by power rating Table 5.12 & Figures 5.20 and 5.21 The majority of LV motor revenues generated in region are attributed to LV motors between the power ratings of 0.75kW to 7.4kW (1HP to 10HP). In 2013, revenues from these power ranges account for an estimated $4,557 million, or almost 82% of the region’s LV motor market. In terms of units, this power range accounts for over 98% of units shipped. IHS expects the segments in this power rating range to perform at or above the market during the forecast period at 8.4%, 8.6% and 9.0%, respectively.

5.1.8 The Asia-Pacific market for low-voltage motors by enclosure Table 5.13 & Figures 5.22 and 5.23

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Like in other regions, the most prevalent enclosure for LV motors sold into the region is the totally enclosed fan-cooled (TEFC) motor. In 2013, TEFC LV motors accounted for an estimated $4,970 million, or 90% of Asia-Pacific’s market’s for LV motor revenues and 90% of units shipped during the year. Revenues generated from TEFC LV motors are projected to perform slightly above the market during the forecast period, generating a CAGR of 8.5% for revenues. Hazardous area TEFC motor are expected to outperform the market average at 10.1% through 2018. In all three regions covered in this report, the hazardous area LV motor market has experienced higher year-on-year growth that in past years due to liability concerns in the automated factory environment. IHS has extended the enclosure segmentation to include hazardous area motors for the 2013 Edition of the report, noted by the non-hazardous and hazardous sub-titles for each enclosure segment. The explosion proof motor, formerly referred to as the XP segment, is actually a subcategory of TEFC. An XP class motor uses a thicker grade of metal to protect the motor from a hazardous environment, or to minimize the potential for an unchecked ignition source to cause the motor to explode. The European equivalents of the North American-centric XP motor are also included in the TEFC/hazardous area segment. These equivalents include: Exd (flameproof), Exe (increased safety), Exia and EXib (intrinsically safe), Exo (oil immersion), Exp (pressurized apparatus), Exq (powder filling), Exm (encapsulation) and Exn (non-sparking). In the region, open drip proof (ODP) motors are not in demand to the same degree as they are in the Americas region. Yet, this market segment is the third largest segment and accounts for just over 7% of revenues and 8% of units shipped. This segment is forecast to underperform the market average during the forecast period, generating a CAGR of 7.3% for revenues.

5.2 Asia-Pacific market share analysis for 2013 Table 5.14 Low voltage motor manufacturers that have less than a 1.0% market share do not appear on Table 5.14, and are represented as a cumulative total in the Others grouping. In 2013, German-based Siemens held the first share position in the region and was estimated to have a 8.5% share in the region, up 1.0% share from the previous year. The majority of Siemens LV motor business is concentrated in China and India. Switzerland-based ABB was ranked second in share at an estimated 5.5%, down 2.0% from 2012. TECO Electric & Machinery was estimated to hold the third highest share in the region at 4.0% with its LV motor sales heavily concentrated in China and Thailand and Taiwan. TECO Electric & Machinery’s share in the region remains unchanged from the previous year. Japan’s Toshiba (independent of TMEIC) was ranked fourth at 4.0%. CORRECTION: Toshiba International Corporation’s motor revenues were under estimated by IHS in the Asia-Pacific for the base year 2012 in the previous edition of this report. Therefore, it was reported in error that Toshiba International Corporation was not significantly ranked in Asia-Pacific share in 2012. Toshiba International Corporation’s 2012 Asia-Pacific share has been adjusted upward to 3.0% and estimated at 4.0% for base year 2013 in the 2014 edition of this report. South Korea-based Hyosung is the top share leader for LV motors in its domestic market, but held the fifth share position in the region at 4.0%. Japan’s Hitachi Industrial Equipment Systems ranked sixth in share at 4.0%. Hitachi’s LV motor business is primarily in Japan. CORRECTION: Hitachi Industrial Equipment Systems motor revenues were under estimated by IHS in the Asia-Pacific for the base year 2012 in the previous edition of this report. Therefore, it was reported in error that Hitachi Industrial Equipment Systems was not significantly ranked in Asia-Pacific share in 2012. Hitachi Industrial Equipment Systems’s 2012 Asia-Pacific share has been adjusted upward to 3.5% and estimated at 4.0% for base year 2013 in the 2014 edition of this report.

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Hyosung’s Korean rival, Hyundai Heavy Industries, ranked second in the South Korean LV motor market, and has established a significant presence in Europe. The Korean manufacturer ranks seventh in the region at 3.5% share, up 0.5% from the previous year. China-based Huali held the eighth share position at 3.0%, unchanged from 2012. China-based Luan JiangHuai generates the majority of its revenues from the domestic Chinese market for LV motor, and is ranked ninth at 2.5%. Brazil’s WEG remained at 2.5% share in the region, unchanged from its 2012 share, and is ranked tenth. Chinese supplier Anhui Wannan ranked eleventh at 2.5%. Regal Beloit’s LV motor sales are concentrated in China through its subsidiary Wuxi Hwada, and in Australia via its CMG acquisition. The manufacturer held a 2.0% share in the region in 2012, but fell to less 1.5% share in the region, and is not included on the 2013 market shares for the Asia-Pacific. China-based Tech Full Simo, ranked twelfth at 2.0% has overtaken local competitor Hengshui (OX) in 2013 by a slight margin. Hengshui (OX) is still estimated to have at 2.0% share in region. India based Crompton Greaves Global (CGG), the top share leader in its domestic market, occupied the fourteenth share position in the region at 2.0%, unchanged from the previous year. Japan’s Fuji Electric held the thirteenth share position at 2.0%, up 0.5% from 2012. Most of the manufacturers LV motor sales are generated in Japan and China. The remaining 56.5% share includes relatively significant manufacturers in the region including China-based Hebei, Japan-based TMEIC which makes IEC frame sizes of 250 and larger for its domestic market, and Taiwan-based Fukuta which specializes in LV spindle motors for its domestic market. The remainder of the Others share category consists of thousands of smaller Chinese motor manufacturers in the region.

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Table 5.1

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Efficiency Class

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


3,807.7 19,579.0 194

4,348.5 21,802.0 199

4,908.7 23,395.6 210

4,885.9 24,006.3 204

5,195.9 25,001.9 208

5,514.2 25,968.7 212

6,024.0 27,284.6 221

6,507.4 28,584.7 228

7,155.8 29,969.2 239

8,120.6 31,646.4 257

8.8% 5.5% 3.1%


3,684.7 19,046.5 193

4,181.0 21,120.3 198

4,708.8 22,628.7 208

4,452.3 22,415.2 199

4,521.0 22,593.9 200

4,652.4 22,974.8 203

4,797.7 23,159.6 207

4,743.3 22,851.3 208

4,796.0 22,651.9 212

4,481.9 20,753.3 216

2.2% 1.0% 1.2%


114.4 510.4 224

155.6 654.0 238

172.9 705.3 245

390.2 1,500.0 260

617.2 2,302.4 268

756.8 2,775.9 273

1,012.1 3,632.5 279

1,344.2 4,729.9 284

1,721.2 5,823.8 296

2,605.1 8,516.2 306

41.5% 36.7% 3.5%


6.5 20.5 317

7.2 22.0 327

17.3 51.9 333

25.2 75.0 336

28.7 83.2 345

66.2 188.5 351

162.8 454.2 358

348.9 951.6 367

543.6 1,425.4 381

901.6 2,284.3 395

73.0% 68.8% 2.5%

2.1 1.5 1,369

4.7 5.7 834

9.7 9.6 1,008

18.2 16.1 1,133

28.9 22.4 1,292

38.8 29.6 1,314

51.4 38.4 1,339

70.9 51.9 1,366

95.0 68.1 1,394

132.0 92.6 1,425

58.3% 57.6% 0.4%

EFFICIENCIES: Total



406.3 860.0 472

438.9 893.0 491

376.4 659.1 571

356.2 415.0 858

344.3 300.4 1,146

375.9 271.1 1,387

409.7 241.1 1,699

454.6 231.7 1,962

510.5 236.8 2,156

557.5 231.5 2,408

3.6% -13.6% 19.8%


200.6 784.4 256

212.6 812.0 262

139.2 575.0 242

84.7 320.0 265

52.1 198.2 263

41.7 156.1 267

30.7 113.2 271

24.7 89.3 276

21.9 78.1 281

17.1 59.7 286

-24.0% -24.9% 1.2%


205.7 75.6 2,721

226.3 81.0 2,794

237.2 84.1 2,820

271.6 95.0 2,858

292.2 102.2 2,859

334.2 115.0 2,908

379.0 127.9 2,963

430.0 142.4 3,019

488.5 158.6 3,080

540.5 171.9 3,144

11.3% 9.6% 1.6%

4,214.0

4,787.4 13.6%

5,285.1 10.4%

5,242.1 -0.8%

5,540.2 5.7%

5,890.1 6.3%

6,433.7 9.2%

6,962.0 8.2%

7,666.2 10.1%

8,678.1 13.2%

8.4%


5.1%


Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

193

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 5.1

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Efficiency Class - Share of Market - 2010 to 2018 100%

Other/non-reg.

90%

DC Motors

80%


Revenues (%)

70%


2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 5.2

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Efficiency Class - Market Breakdown and Growth 5,000

150%

2013 Revenues

4,500

3,500

Growth 2015

90%

3,000 2,500

60%

2,000

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

Growth 2014

120%

4,000

30%

1,500 1,000

0%

500 0

-30% IE1

IE2

IE3

IE4


DC

Other

Jul-14 194

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 5.3

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Efficiency Class - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 150%

IE1 - Standard

125% IE2 - High 100%

Growth (%)

IE3 - Premium 75% IE4 - Super Premium

50%

DC Motors

25%

Other/non-reg.

0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

-25%

2016

2017

2018 Total Market

-50%

Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

195

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 5.2

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Region

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18

China Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

2,291.4 10,883.9 211

2,680.9 12,484.4 215

3,005.7 13,176.7 228

2,795.1 12,976.0 215

2,922.4 13,258.5 220

3,103.0 13,810.0 225

3,362.7 14,408.4 233

3,660.1 15,295.8 239

4,035.2 16,010.7 252

4,648.7 16,920.9 275

8.2% 5.0% 3.0%

India Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

401.3 2,733.3 147

455.5 3,012.0 151

487.7 3,199.3 152

509.3 3,259.4 156

535.5 3,363.6 159

570.0 3,475.7 164

628.2 3,701.1 170

689.0 3,903.4 177

747.5 4,091.7 183

816.1 4,270.3 191

8.2% 5.1% 3.0%

Japan Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

437.8 1,369.8 320

468.4 1,423.0 329

500.3 1,523.4 328

526.3 1,569.6 335

570.4 1,675.3 340

626.1 1,785.3 351

743.6 2,000.3 372

802.5 2,036.5 394

899.2 2,146.7 419

1,028.5 2,246.4 458

10.0% 5.7% 4.1%

Australia Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

160.5 521.9 307

176.5 552.0 320

201.5 614.1 328

228.3 680.9 335

209.7 642.8 326

210.7 627.3 336

223.4 633.2 353

259.4 700.4 370

299.6 770.4 389

329.8 806.7 409

8.3% 5.0% 3.2%

South Korea Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

361.8 1,459.5 248

383.5 1,487.0 258

408.3 1,539.7 265

436.2 1,636.2 267

478.5 1,746.3 274

514.4 1,811.0 284

555.8 1,875.0 296

593.3 1,911.1 310

656.9 2,033.4 323

723.2 2,130.0 340

8.0% 4.3% 3.6%

Taiwan Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

237.9 1,455.6 163

261.7 1,553.0 169

281.6 1,629.3 173

307.4 1,717.7 179

335.5 1,827.3 184

353.4 1,868.8 189

373.4 1,932.8 193

396.8 1,994.7 199

434.5 2,121.1 205

468.9 2,222.5 211

7.8% 4.8% 2.9%

Thailand Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)

130.9 844.0 155

146.5 916.0 160

162.5 985.4 165

180.7 1,072.4 168

207.5 1,168.3 178

217.1 1,198.4 181

235.8 1,275.6 185

234.6 1,243.2 189

232.5 1,206.5 193

263.7 1,343.4 196

8.1% 5.3% 2.6%

192.4 1,171.1 164

214.4 1,267.7 169

237.6 1,386.8 171

258.8 1,509.0 172

280.7 1,620.2 173

295.4 1,663.2 178

310.8 1,699.3 183

326.2 1,731.4 188

360.8 1,825.5 198

399.3 1,937.7 206

8.4% 5.8% 2.5%

4,214.0

4,787.4 13.6%

5,285.1 10.4%

5,242.1 -0.8%

5,540.2 5.7%

5,890.1 6.3%

6,433.7 9.2%

6,962.0 8.2%

7,666.2 10.1%

8,678.1 13.2%

8.4%


5.1%

Rest of Asia Pacific Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)


Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

196

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 5.4

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Region - Market Breakdown and Growth 3,000

20%

2013 Revenues

18% 2,500

Growth 2014

16%

Growth 2015

14% 12%

10% 1,500 8% 6%

1,000

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

2,000

4% 2%

500

0% 0

-2%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 5.5

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Region - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 20%

China

16%

India Japan

12% Growth (%)

Australia 8% South Korea 4%

Taiwan Thailand

0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018 Rest of Asia Pacific

-4%

Total Market -8%


Jul-14 197

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 5.3a

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Application

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


1,028.0 5,500.8 187

1,181.0 6,126.1 193

1,275.5 6,448.3 198

1,256.1 6,595.7 190

1,348.5 6,878.7 196

1,440.1 7,152.7 201

1,570.8 7,502.1 209

1,697.9 7,872.7 216

1,860.4 8,249.9 226

2,116.7 8,772.3 241

8.4% 5.3% 2.9%


95.1 285.1 334

104.8 308.0 340

118.5 338.5 350

120.8 342.7 353

124.3 346.3 359

130.2 355.7 366

141.0 370.4 381

150.9 384.9 392

163.9 400.4 409

182.0 419.4 434

7.5% 4.4% 3.0%


52.2 88.0 593

59.3 98.0 605

61.8 95.4 647

59.2 92.5 640

54.1 86.4 626

57.4 89.9 638

63.0 94.8 664

67.1 98.1 684

72.6 101.7 714

80.2 106.0 757

4.9% 2.1% 2.8%


33.6 60.9 551

37.0 66.2 559

44.0 72.8 604

41.8 68.2 613

41.4 68.4 605

44.0 71.4 617

49.3 76.4 646

55.8 83.5 668

66.3 95.1 697

70.9 92.4 767

8.6% 4.7% 3.7%


105.0 365.0 288

119.8 406.3 295

124.1 405.9 306

124.4 402.9 309

131.4 417.3 315

142.4 435.0 327

150.7 446.8 337

163.8 465.3 352

182.5 489.0 373

7.5% 4.3% 3.1%


94.8 200.8 472

106.3 222.2 478

119.1 242.4 491

111.2 229.5 484

114.1 233.4 489

129.3 259.1 499

151.8 292.4 519

169.1 316.2 535

199.8 357.9 558

240.5 406.4 592

10.9% 8.2% 2.5%


1,171.2 6,505.6 180

1,321.1 7,171.6 184

1,435.7 7,443.4 193

1,418.5 7,566.9 187

1,514.5 7,935.5 191

1,627.0 8,276.7 197

1,774.3 8,716.4 204

1,918.4 9,149.6 210

2,110.7 9,605.9 220

2,410.6 10,158.3 237

8.4% 5.1% 3.1%


194.0 243.4 797

214.2 264.7 809

229.0 278.6 822

221.4 273.8 809

226.3 278.2 813

242.2 292.0 830

294.5 341.4 863

362.9 408.4 889

444.7 479.4 928

505.4 509.1 993

11.2% 8.5% 2.5%


10.3 27.5 374

11.8 31.0 381

12.1 31.2 388

11.6 31.0 373

11.3 31.5 357

11.9 32.7 364

12.8 33.7 379

13.6 34.7 390

13.0 31.9 408

11.8 27.2 432

1.5% -0.1% 1.6%


931.9 4,903.5 190

1,074.2 5,487.1 196

1,248.7 6,066.6 206

1,245.5 6,161.3 202

1,318.4 6,333.7 208

1,382.9 6,513.2 212

1,487.5 6,788.4 219

1,580.4 7,049.1 224

1,712.4 7,343.7 233

1,919.3 7,678.4 250

8.4% 5.1% 3.1%


Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

198

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 5.3b

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Application

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


34.3 66.3 518

38.2 70.0 546

44.0 75.8 580

40.9 88.9 460

40.7 90.6 449

40.9 89.4 458

43.7 91.7 476

46.8 95.3 491

48.5 94.6 512

52.5 94.9 553

4.8% 4.1% 0.7%


13.9 58.5 238

16.1 66.0 244

17.3 74.6 231

16.7 75.6 221

17.2 75.2 228

18.3 78.6 233

20.2 83.2 242

22.7 91.1 250

25.8 99.1 261

30.0 108.4 276

8.9% 7.1% 1.7%


12.5 47.6 263

14.8 55.0 269

15.7 56.6 277

15.3 42.9 356

15.0 44.2 339

16.5 47.6 346

18.7 52.0 360

21.3 57.3 371

25.6 66.1 387

31.6 76.9 410

10.8% 5.5% 5.1%


447.0 2,115.1 211

503.6 2,364.0 213

544.0 2,424.0 224

559.0 2,446.3 229

590.1 2,497.2 236

617.8 2,563.5 241

663.7 2,647.8 251

704.5 2,728.8 258

758.7 2,815.1 270

844.2 2,939.0 287

7.3% 3.7% 3.5%

4,214.0

4,787.4 13.6%

5,285.1 10.4%

5,242.1 -0.8%

5,540.2 5.7%

5,890.1 6.3%

6,433.7 9.2%

6,962.0 8.2%

7,666.2 10.1%

8,678.1 13.2%

8.4%


5.1%


Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

199

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 5.6

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Application - Market Breakdown and Growth 1,600

2013 Revenues

25%

1,400

Growth 2014

20%

Growth 2015

1,000

15%

800 10%

600

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

1,200

400 5% 200 0

0%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 5.7

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Application - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 20% Compressors

Conveyors

15%

Growth (%)


Fans

Pumps 0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Total Market -5%


Jul-14 200

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 5.4

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Discrete, Process & Other Manufacturing Sectors

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


2,830.1 15,114.9 187

3,259.3 17,001.1 192

3,656.7 18,058.9 202

3,626.0 18,382.9 197

3,848.3 19,075.9 202

4,070.1 19,782.7 206

4,441.9 20,789.3 214

4,795.2 21,793.0 220

5,266.1 22,807.6 231

5,931.5 24,022.2 247

8.6% 5.3% 3.1%


1,183.0 3,993.8 296

1,310.4 4,270.8 307

1,392.3 4,501.3 309

1,380.9 4,551.9 303

1,451.1 4,659.3 311

1,555.2 4,797.9 324

1,700.6 4,997.2 340

1,846.7 5,194.1 356

2,041.3 5,468.7 373

2,344.5 5,816.0 403

7.9% 4.3% 3.5%


200.9 1,330.3 151

217.7 1,423.2 153

236.1 1,494.4 158

235.2 1,486.5 158

240.8 1,567.1 154

264.8 1,659.2 160

291.2 1,739.2 167

320.1 1,829.4 175

358.8 1,929.7 186

402.0 2,039.7 197

8.0% 4.9% 3.0%

4,214.0

4,787.4 13.6%

5,285.1 10.4%

5,242.1 -0.8%

5,540.2 5.7%

5,890.1 6.3%

6,433.7 9.2%

6,962.0 8.2%

7,666.2 10.1%

8,678.1 13.2%

8.4%


5.1%


Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

201

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 5.5a

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Discrete Sector

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18

159.2 484.0 329

171.1 516.3 331

177.1 525.6 337

143.7 480.8 299

153.9 498.2 309

166.8 518.6 322

196.7 585.8 336

220.1 628.2 350

250.1 673.4 371

291.3 733.3 397

6.9% 4.7% 2.1%

1,072.4 7,110.8 151

1,284.8 8,442.4 152

1,463.5 8,864.7 165

1,450.1 9,091.4 159

1,557.0 9,543.5 163

1,625.5 9,778.4 166

1,744.0 10,151.2 172

1,852.8 10,532.3 176

1,999.9 10,921.1 183

2,249.6 11,502.7 196

8.6% 5.5% 2.9%


95.1 285.1 334

104.8 308.0 340

118.5 338.5 350

120.8 342.7 353

124.3 346.3 359

130.2 355.7 359

141.0 370.4 359

150.9 384.9 359

163.9 400.4 359

182.0 419.4 359

7.5% 4.4% 0.8%


52.2 88.0 593

59.3 98.0 605

61.8 95.4 647

59.2 92.5 640

54.1 86.4 626

57.4 89.9 626

63.0 94.8 626

67.1 98.1 626

72.6 101.7 626

80.2 106.0 626

4.9% 2.1% 0.6%


105.0 365.0 288

119.8 406.3 295

124.1 405.9 306

124.4 402.9 309

131.4 417.3 309

142.4 435.0 309

150.7 446.8 309

163.8 465.3 309

182.5 489.0 309

7.5% 4.3% 1.0%

Food, Bev. & Tobacco (DS) Revenues ($M) 438.2 Units (k) 2,507.8 ASP ($) 175

488.5 2,605.0 188

527.4 2,714.4 194

548.5 2,809.4 195

586.0 2,838.8 206

630.3 2,993.4 211

707.0 3,228.9 219

792.8 3,513.4 226

918.1 3,836.6 239

1,072.9 4,161.0 258

10.5% 5.8% 4.4%



78.6 259.4 303

92.8 268.0 346

99.3 280.0 355

90.7 270.1 336

99.3 294.2 338

109.0 316.4 344

121.0 337.6 358

132.7 363.0 366

142.0 373.7 380

164.4 404.1 407

8.5% 5.0% 3.3%


188.6 481.7 392

216.2 532.0 406

257.3 605.9 425

277.4 665.7 417

285.4 677.5 421

292.2 679.9 430

308.6 690.6 447

326.3 702.1 465

349.7 723.4 483

391.6 764.2 512

8.5% 5.3% 3.0%


116.4 701.0 166

127.4 742.6 172

130.8 785.0 167

139.9 809.8 173

163.6 931.5 176

184.2 1,010.0 182

199.1 1,059.9 188

213.4 1,103.0 193

226.5 1,099.1 206

9.4% 6.2% 3.0%


176.8 934.6 189

193.2 982.6 197

188.9 996.2 190

207.6 1,042.9 199

224.8 1,103.0 204

245.6 1,153.5 213

262.4 1,181.4 222

292.6 1,242.7 235

335.7 1,315.5 255

8.4% 4.5% 3.8%

161.8 884.9 183


Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

202

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 5.5b

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Discrete Sector

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


10.3 27.5 374

11.8 31.0 381

12.1 31.2 388

11.6 31.0 373

11.3 31.5 357

11.9 32.7 357

12.8 33.7 357

13.6 34.7 357

13.0 31.9 357

11.8 27.2 357

1.5% -0.1% -0.5%


19.6 35.0 560

24.6 45.8 537

26.0 47.5 548

27.5 47.3 582

29.3 50.0 586

28.1 46.9 598

28.7 46.2 622

30.0 47.4 634

33.4 50.7 660

36.9 52.2 708

7.3% 4.5% 2.6%


3.2 11.7 279

4.0 14.0 286

5.1 17.2 298

5.5 17.5 314

5.3 17.1 310

5.3 16.7 316

6.1 18.6 329

6.2 18.4 335

6.3 18.1 349

6.7 17.9 373

8.4% 4.9% 3.3%


50.3 257.7 195

64.5 314.8 205

64.2 313.6 205

67.9 324.8 209

71.3 333.8 214

90.9 408.1 223

91.8 403.3 228

99.2 405.5 245

94.7 352.1 269

8.9% 4.8% 3.9%

15.9 66.8 238

18.2 72.7 250

21.7 83.6 259

22.7 85.9 264

24.6 90.9 270

25.2 92.2 273

27.9 99.0 281

30.1 106.0 284

31.1 106.3 293

30.4 100.0 304

7.5% 4.6% 2.8%


127.0 653.0 194

135.2 668.9 202

110.8 631.6 175

108.2 628.8 172

111.9 637.3 176

119.6 654.1 183

139.9 709.7 197

163.2 766.7 213

193.6 849.5 228

5.6% 3.4% 2.1%


93.4 622.6 150

109.6 689.0 159

139.4 859.1 162

145.5 865.3 168

158.6 916.9 173

165.1 931.1 177

174.7 947.3 184

192.7 1,003.9 192

205.5 1,005.0 204

223.4 1,022.5 218

10.2% 5.7% 4.3%


31.9 147.0 217

38.3 171.0 224

45.8 194.0 236

42.2 180.5 234

44.6 186.9 239

45.0 184.9 244

47.3 185.0 255

48.8 184.1 265

51.4 182.4 282

63.0 207.1 304

7.9% 3.9% 3.8%


59.9 296.7 202

61.8 286.7 215

61.9 270.4 229

66.6 288.6 231

75.1 319.1 235

80.4 328.5 245

87.2 349.3 250

96.8 362.1 267

94.2 349.0 270

7.2% 3.1% 3.9%

3,259.3 15.2%

3,656.7 12.2%

3,626.0 -0.8%

3,848.3 6.1%

4,070.1 5.8%

4,441.9 9.1%

4,795.2 8.0%

5,266.1 9.8%

5,931.5 12.6%

8.6%

21,793.0 22,807.6 24,022.2 4.8% 4.7% 5.3%

5.3%



2,830.1


17,001.1 18,058.9 18,382.9 12.5% 6.2% 1.8%

19,075.9 19,782.7 20,789.3 3.8% 3.7% 5.1%

Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

203

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 5.8

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Discrete Sector - Market Breakdown and Growth 1,800

2013 Revenues

26% 1,600

Growth 2014

22% 1,400 18%

Growth 2015

14%

1,000

10%

800

600

6%

400

2%

200

-2%

0

-6%

Source: IHS

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

1,200

Jul-14

Figure 5.9

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Discrete Sector - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 20%

Commercial HVAC 15%

Conveyors

Growth (%)

10%

Elevators & Escalators Food, Bev. & Tobacco (DS)

5%

Machine Tools 0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Mining (DS) -5% Total Market -10%


Jul-14 204

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 5.6

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Process Sector

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18

64.5 304.7 212

67.9 316.0 215

72.4 333.5 217

74.1 334.1 222

79.0 350.2 226

86.6 365.4 237

95.0 383.8 248

103.9 401.5 259

114.6 421.6 272

130.4 444.9 293

8.1% 4.3% 3.7%


132.6 693.0 191

148.3 736.7 201

140.3 732.9 191

149.7 755.2 198

162.1 786.0 206

184.3 851.3 217

199.2 884.8 225

216.8 926.1 234

255.8 1,011.5 253

7.9% 4.4% 3.3%


109.7 354.7 309

109.6 353.0 310

106.4 345.5 308

96.9 337.3 287

101.3 354.1 286

117.4 390.8 300

125.9 395.2 318

148.1 447.3 331

168.0 478.6 351

198.8 514.8 386

6.8% 4.2% 2.5%


70.8 177.3 399

83.2 196.0 424

103.5 236.6 438

126.8 279.1 454

126.5 273.9 462

120.5 253.3 476

120.7 246.3 490

124.0 245.6 505

129.9 249.9 520

137.4 254.1 541

7.6% 4.1% 3.4%


93.7 178.7 524

107.3 200.8 535

104.0 210.6 494

105.3 212.2 496

106.1 214.1 496

119.1 226.7 525

136.8 246.9 554

147.3 249.6 590

180.5 290.6 621

211.3 318.8 663

9.5% 6.6% 2.6%


85.9 236.8 363

87.1 237.0 368

91.1 244.1 373

86.7 239.9 361

91.4 244.6 374

103.3 260.7 396

119.6 284.8 420

132.5 303.6 437

153.3 336.0 456

169.7 349.2 486

7.8% 4.4% 3.3%


290.9 573.6 507

290.9 587.7 495

276.4 586.7 471

290.9 583.9 498

318.4 614.2 518

360.4 654.3 551

400.9 690.4 581

441.5 724.0 610

518.9 795.4 652

8.2% 5.0% 3.1%

Power Gen-Ren. Energy Revenues ($M) 44.5 Units (k) 50.7 ASP ($) 878

55.1 62.4 882

66.0 69.5 949

70.6 75.2 939

71.8 72.2 995

77.8 71.7 1,085

81.0 70.4 1,150

84.0 70.3 1,196

89.3 71.8 1,243

105.0 77.5 1,355

10.0% 4.8% 4.9%


46.8 158.0 296

53.1 173.6 306

48.1 169.2 284

47.3 173.1 273

53.3 184.0 290

62.3 198.9 313

71.5 215.3 332

82.6 239.2 345

98.1 251.5 390

7.9% 4.4% 3.3%


191.7 799.0 240

205.9 850.3 242

200.0 847.9 236

215.8 882.3 245

225.2 902.8 249

241.2 929.7 259

259.1 960.1 270

284.2 1,007.8 282

330.2 1,064.4 310

7.8% 4.4% 3.3%


138.3 682.0 203

150.7 713.2 211

155.7 737.5 211

171.2 755.8 226

171.5 742.3 231

173.4 735.7 236

176.1 725.7 243

180.8 723.0 250

189.0 733.8 257

5.9% 2.3% 3.6%



1,183.0

1,310.4 10.8%

1,392.3 6.2%

1,380.9 -0.8%

1,451.1 5.1%

1,555.2 7.2%

1,700.6 9.3%

1,846.7 8.6%

2,041.3 10.5%

2,344.5 14.9%

7.9%


3,993.8

4,270.8 6.9%

4,501.3 5.4%

4,551.9 1.1%

4,659.3 2.4%

4,797.9 3.0%

4,997.2 4.2%

5,194.1 3.9%

5,468.7 5.3%

5,816.0 6.4%

4.3%


Jul-14 205

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 5.10

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Process Sector - Market Breakdown and Growth 350

20%

2013 Revenues

300

Growth 2014

15%

Growth 2015

10%

200 150

5%

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

250

100 0% 50 0

-5%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 5.11

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Process Sector - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 25%

Chemicals


15%

Growth (%)

Mining (PS) 10% Pharmaceuticals

5%

0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Rubber & Plastics (PS)

-5%

Total Market -10%


Jul-14 206

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 5.7

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Other Sector

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


46.3 340.2 136

48.4 365.7 132

49.4 370.2 133

51.0 407.7 125

54.8 431.6 127

62.6 469.8 133

72.8 512.5 142

80.3 535.5 150

88.5 559.9 158

8.7% 6.7% 1.9%


86.5 465.4 186

93.7 499.3 188

109.4 560.8 195

109.1 550.0 198

112.7 578.3 195

130.4 645.5 202

145.5 685.3 212

159.2 720.9 221

184.7 794.4 233

213.3 872.3 244

10.6% 7.2% 3.1%


72.6 551.9 131

77.7 583.7 133

78.3 567.9 138

76.7 566.3 135

77.1 581.1 133

79.6 582.1 137

83.0 584.0 142

88.1 596.0 148

93.8 599.7 156

100.3 607.4 165

3.7% 1.1% 2.6%


200.9

217.7 8.4%

236.1 8.5%

235.2 -0.4%

240.8 2.4%

264.8 10.0%

291.2 10.0%

320.1 9.9%

358.8 12.1%

402.0 12.0%

8.0%


1,330.3

1,423.2 7.0%

1,494.4 5.0%

1,486.5 -0.5%

1,567.1 5.4%

1,659.2 5.9%

1,739.2 4.8%

1,829.4 5.2%

1,929.7 5.5%

2,039.7 5.7%

4.9%

Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

207

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 5.12

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Other Sector - Market Breakdown and Growth 120

18%

2013 Revenues

100

Growth 2014 13%

60

40

8%

Growth 2015 Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

80

20

0

3%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 5.13

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Other Sector - Market Breakdown and Growth 18%

Building Automation

15%

12%

Growth (%)

Infrastructure 9%

6%

Others

3%

Total Market

0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

-3%


Jul-14 208

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 5.8

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By IEC v. NEMA

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


4,181.4 20,376.9 205

4,754.3 22,632 210

5,248.8 23,991.9 219

5,204.9 24,360.7 214

5,509.9 25,243.7 218

5,858.4 26,179.8 224

6,400.1 27,462.7 233

6,925.7 28,750.4 241

7,626.8 30,137.3 253

8,635.5 31,806.6 272

8.4% 5.1% 3.2%


32.6 62.1 525

33.1 63.0 525

36.3 62.8 578

37.2 60.6 614

30.3 58.6 518

31.7 60.0 528

33.6 63.0 533

36.3 66.0 549

39.5 68.7 574

42.6 71.3 597

3.0% 1.5% 1.4%

4,214.0

4,787.4 13.6%

5,285.1 10.4%

5,242.1 -0.8%

5,540.2 5.7%

5,890.1 6.3%

6,433.7 9.2%

6,962.0 8.2%

7,666.2 10.1%

8,678.1 13.2%

8.4%


5.1%


Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

209

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 5.9

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By IEC Frame Size

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


555.9 10,465.7 53

654.2 11,385.6 57

747.3 12,231.2 61

780.9 12,606.4 62

876.2 13,219.9 66

946.4 13,932.1 68

1,045.4 14,854.7 70

1,123.2 15,802.3 71

1,167.6 16,263.2 72

1,282.0 16,846.0 76

9.7% 5.4% 4.1%


726.7 6,923.6 105

851.5 7,698.9 111

962.0 8,019.4 120

944.7 8,231.8 115

1,006.7 8,348.1 121

1,072.6 8,553.0 125

1,166.4 8,858.1 132

1,237.8 9,143.8 135

1,343.3 9,728.7 138

1,557.4 10,492.4 148

8.8% 4.7% 3.9%


1,204.6 2,302.2 523

1,389.3 2,803.5 496

1,562.5 2,975.9 525

1,568.6 2,768.5 567

1,689.6 2,919.7 579

1,743.7 2,897.3 602

1,880.8 2,903.1 648

2,002.8 2,896.3 691

2,260.3 3,173.1 712

2,613.1 3,421.4 764

9.0% 4.5% 4.3%


1,223.3 648.4 1,887

1,298.5 702.3 1,849

1,403.7 722.9 1,942

1,369.7 712.8 1,922

1,392.1 714.8 1,947

1,510.5 754.4 2,002

1,661.5 801.0 2,074

1,827.9 857.3 2,132

2,025.3 915.9 2,211

2,279.6 988.5 2,306

7.2% 4.8% 2.3%


434.1 35.3 12,281

516.8 39.9 12,969

527.3 40.7 12,969

498.4 39.5 12,605

504.3 39.5 12,768

539.5 41.2 13,088

595.7 43.9 13,559

679.1 48.7 13,938

769.0 54.1 14,217

831.6 56.0 14,857

7.5% 5.2% 2.1%


36.7 1.5 23,927

44.0 1.9 22,984

46.0 1.9 24,152

42.5 1.7 24,775

41.1 1.7 24,635

45.6 1.8 25,250

50.3 1.9 26,159

54.9 2.0 26,892

61.4 2.2 27,887

71.9 2.4 30,118

7.7% 5.0% 2.6%

4,181.4

4,754.3 13.7%

5,248.8 10.4%

5,204.9 -0.8%

5,509.9 5.9%

5,858.4 6.3%

6,400.1 9.2%

6,925.7 8.2%

7,626.8 10.1%

8,635.5 13.2%

8.4%


5.1%


Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

210

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 5.14

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By IEC Frame Size - Market Breakdown and Growth 1,800

12%

2013 Revenues

1,600 Growth 2014

10%

1,400

Growth 2015

8%

1,000 800

6% 600 400

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

1,200

4%

200 0

2%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 5.15

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By IEC Frame Size - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 80-100 20% 112-132 16%

160-225

Growth (%)

12% 250-355

8% 400-560

4% 630 & above 0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Total Market

-4%

-8%


Jul-14 211

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 5.10

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By NEMA Frame Size

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


8.2 37.3 220

7.9 37.4 211

8.9 32.6 274

8.6 31.0 278

6.6 30.9 213

7.1 31.6 223

7.7 33.0 232

8.3 35.0 239

9.0 36.3 249

9.6 37.4 256

1.7% 0.0% 1.7%


8.8 16.4 536

9.1 16.6 549

9.9 20.0 495

10.0 18.4 541

8.7 17.9 485

9.1 18.3 495

9.9 19.8 500

10.3 19.9 515

11.2 20.8 538

11.8 21.4 553

3.3% 3.0% 0.4%


6.3 5.4 1,161

6.6 5.8 1,151

6.9 6.7 1,031

7.8 7.2 1,091

6.0 6.1 983

6.3 6.3 1,003

6.4 6.4 1,013

7.4 7.1 1,044

8.2 7.5 1,091

8.9 7.9 1,122

3.9% 4.3% -0.4%


6.5 2.5 2,653

6.4 2.7 2,342

7.0 3.1 2,282

7.4 3.5 2,094

5.8 3.3 1,739

6.1 3.4 1,786

6.4 3.4 1,852

6.8 3.6 1,889

7.4 3.8 1,974

8.3 4.1 2,030

2.8% 5.9% -2.9%


2.7 0.4 6,148

3.1 0.5 6,381

3.6 0.5 7,614

3.4 0.5 6,818

3.3 0.4 8,173

3.2 0.4 8,336

3.2 0.4 8,419

3.4 0.4 8,672

3.7 0.4 9,062

3.9 0.4 9,320

4.1% -0.6% 4.7%


0.0 0.0 -

0.0 0.0 -

0.0 0.0 -

0.0 0.0 -

0.0 0.0 -

0.0 0.0 -

0.0 0.0 -

0.0 0.0 -

0.0 0.0 -

0.0 0.0 -


32.6

33.1 1.6%

36.3 9.6%

37.2 2.6%

30.3 -18.6%

31.7 4.4%

33.6 6.1%

36.3 8.0%

39.5 8.8%

42.6 7.8%

3.0%


62.1

63.0 1.5%

62.8 -0.3%

60.6 -3.4%

58.6 -3.4%

60.0 2.4%

63.0 5.0%

66.0 4.8%

68.7 4.1%

71.3 3.7%

1.5%

Source: IHS

July 2014

-

Jul-14

212

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 5.16

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By NEMA Frame Size - Market Breakdown and Growth 10.0

10%

2013 Revenues

9.0

Growth 2014

8.0 5%

Growth 2015

6.0 5.0

4.0 0%

3.0

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

7.0

2.0 1.0 0.0

-5%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 5.17

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By NEMA Frame Size - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 20%

56-145 15% 182-184

10%

Growth (%)

5%

213-215

0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

254-326

-5% -10%

364-449

-15% 5000 & above

-20%

Total Market

-25%


Jul-14 213

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 5.11

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Sales Channel

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


3,413.0 17,215.2 198

3,838.1 19,021.9 202

4,279.1 20,321.8 211

4,262.6 20,747.6 205

4,529.7 21,473.7 211

4,799.6 22,212.6 216

5,216.6 23,226.5 225

5,618.2 24,276.3 231

6,168.0 25,402.6 243

6,978.5 26,765.2 261

8.3% 5.0% 3.1%


679.6 1,817.5 374

755.0 2,011.0 375

801.2 2,042.1 392

777.8 2,025.1 384

829.8 2,164.1 383

877.0 2,240.1 392

963.6 2,344.0 411

1,062.0 2,472.2 430

1,171.9 2,610.6 449

1,351.8 2,775.3 487

7.9% 4.8% 3.0%


2,733.4 15,397.7 178

3,083.1 17,010.9 181

3,477.9 18,279.7 190

3,484.8 18,722.6 186

3,699.9 19,309.6 192

3,922.6 19,972.5 196

4,253.1 20,882.5 204

4,556.3 21,804.1 209

4,996.1 22,792.1 219

5,626.7 23,989.9 235

8.4% 5.1% 3.1%

181.5 632.8 287

216.3 721.0 300

241.8 747.0 324

237.0 741.2 320

240.6 769.4 313

253.1 784.8 323

276.3 817.7 338

310.8 867.6 358

360.8 948.1 381

425.5 1,048.4 406

9.9% 5.8% 3.9%



562.6 2,460.8 229

667.2 2,812.2 237

694.6 2,841.2 244

679.4 2,798.8 243

707.7 2,924.7 242

763.8 3,096.3 247

853.4 3,322.2 257

930.1 3,492.4 266

1,023.9 3,670.9 279

1,142.1 3,866.1 295

8.2% 5.1% 2.9%


335.8 1,402.6 239

397.4 1,581.0 251

409.1 1,591.3 257

385.4 1,545.6 249

405.4 1,608.1 252

433.3 1,685.0 257

480.5 1,791.0 268

529.9 1,893.7 280

588.6 2,015.3 292

659.6 2,150.7 307

7.8% 4.9% 2.8%


226.8 1,058.2 214

269.8 1,231.2 219

285.5 1,249.9 228

294.0 1,253.2 235

302.3 1,316.6 230

330.5 1,411.3 234

372.9 1,531.2 244

400.3 1,598.7 250

435.3 1,655.7 263

482.6 1,715.4 281

8.8% 5.5% 3.1%

56.9 130.2 437

65.8 140.0 470

69.6 144.7 481

63.1 133.7 472

62.1 134.5 462

73.5 146.1 503

87.4 159.3 549

102.8 180.2 571

113.6 184.3 616

131.9 198.2 666

9.8% 4.8% 4.8%

4,214.0

4,787.4 13.6%

5,285.1 10.4%

5,242.1 -0.8%

5,540.2 5.7%

5,890.1 6.3%

6,433.7 9.2%

6,962.0 8.2%

7,666.2 10.1%

8,678.1 13.2%

8.4%

28,816.4 30,206.0 31,877.9 4.7% 4.8% 5.5%

5.1%




22,695.0 24,054.7 24,421.3 11.0% 6.0% 1.5%

25,302.3 26,239.8 27,525.7 3.6% 3.7% 4.9%

Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

214

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 5.18

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Sales Channel - Market Breakdown and Growth 4,000

20%

2013 Revenues

3,500

Growth 2014 Growth 2015

15% 2,500

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

3,000

2,000 1,500

10% 1,000 500 0

5%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 5.19

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Sales Channel - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018

Growth (%)

20%

Direct to End-user

15%

Direct to OEM

10%

Direct to Sys Int

5%

Dist. to Enduser

Dist. to OEM 0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018 Dist. to Sys Int

-5%

Total Market -10%


Jul-14 215

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 5.12

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Power Rating

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18


1,472.3 13,064.1 113

1,625.0 14,057.0 116

1,623.2 14,316.0 113

1,749.3 14,902.6 117

1,843.5 15,336.7 120

2,004.1 15,879.1 126

2,142.1 16,478.4 130

2,365.5 17,280.6 137

2,680.8 18,303.0 146

8.4% 5.1% 3.2%


1,252.2 7,057.9 177

1,287.5 7,161.7 180

1,253.4 7,300.7 172

1,308.1 7,480.6 175

1,409.9 7,862.1 179

1,600.8 8,501.6 188

1,815.2 9,094.6 200

2,051.7 9,589.5 214

2,339.3 10,124.0 231

8.6% 5.1% 3.4%

5.62-7.5kW (7.5-10HP) Revenues ($M) 1,007.4 Units (k) 1,931.6 ASP ($) 522

1,182.5 2,236.6 529

1,413.0 2,486.7 568

1,435.7 2,460.9 583

1,499.9 2,559.4 586

1,594.5 2,667.4 598

1,708.0 2,752.7 620

1,805.4 2,831.9 638

1,955.1 2,906.8 673

2,193.7 3,000.9 731

9.0% 5.0% 3.8%


317.5 263.0 1,207

344.2 272.7 1,262

349.0 268.9 1,298

372.3 281.9 1,321

395.1 292.1 1,353

431.3 307.0 1,405

467.5 323.0 1,447

514.4 339.1 1,517

609.1 358.5 1,699

8.0% 3.9% 4.0%


245.3 55.4 4,427

261.1 57.0 4,580

263.9 56.6 4,659

285.0 59.5 4,791

309.1 63.0 4,906

342.5 67.2 5,098

367.8 70.0 5,251

392.4 71.3 5,503

425.4 72.4 5,877

7.1% 3.6% 3.4%


265.0 16.0 16,563

297.4 17.4 17,051

268.2 16.5 16,305

279.6 16.6 16,849

292.4 16.9 17,254

296.5 16.5 17,927

309.1 16.7 18,465

324.9 16.8 19,351

355.7 17.2 20,667

5.2% 2.7% 2.4%


52.6 2.0 26,300

56.9 2.1 27,021

48.9 1.7 28,952

45.9 1.7 27,779

45.7 1.6 28,446

50.4 1.7 30,152

54.9 1.7 32,564

62.2 1.8 35,495

74.0 1.9 38,690

5.4% 2.6% 2.8%


4,787.4 13.6%

5,285.1 10.4%

5,242.1 -0.8%

5,540.2 5.7%

5,890.1 6.3%

6,433.7 9.2%

6,962.0 8.2%

7,666.2 10.1%

8,678.1 13.2%

8.4%


5.1%

4,214.0

Source: IHS

July 2014

Jul-14

216

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Figure 5.20

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Power Rating - Market Breakdown and Growth 1,800

2013 Revenues

14%

1,600

Growth 2014

1,400

10%

Growth 2015

1,000

6% 800

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

1,200

600 2%

400 200

0

-2%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 5.21

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors

Growth (%)

By Power Rating - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 20%

0.75-1.5kW (1-2HP)

15%

2.25-3.75kW (3-5HP)

10%

5.62-7.5kW (7.5-10HP)

5%

11.25-37.5kW (15-50HP)

0%

45-112.5kW (60-150HP) 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018 150-375kW (200-500HP)

-5%


-10%

-15%


Jul-14 217

© 2014 IHS

IHS Technology


Table 5.13

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Enclosure Type

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

CAGR 09 - 18

3,759.3 18,182.2 207

4,251.6 20,172.0 211

4,703.9 21,486.6 219

4,678.4 21,876.9 214

4,969.9 22,716.7 219

5,290.8 23,571.0 224

5,792.0 24,745.8 234

6,269.5 25,895.3 242

6,912.8 27,141.4 255

7,843.0 28,641.3 274

8.5% 5.2% 3.2%


3,903.1 19,241.2 203

4,313.5 20,546.4 210

4,224.6 20,910.0 202

4,480.4 21,754.1 206

4,793.0 22,611.3 212

5,265.9 23,761.1 222

5,694.4 24,839.9 229

6,281.1 26,004.9 242

7,178.1 27,492.1 261

8.4% 5.2% 3.0%

280.6 784.5 358

348.5 930.8 374

390.4 940.2 415

453.8 966.9 469

489.5 962.6 509

497.8 959.7 519

526.1 984.7 534

575.1 1,055.4 545

631.7 1,136.5 556

664.9 1,149.2 579

10.1% 4.3% 5.5%

35.5 133.9 265

40.8 142.0 287

43.8 145.0 302

40.5 139.2 291

38.0 134.7 282

39.2 136.0 288

41.5 139.0 299

48.2 157.6 306

55.3 173.8 318

64.6 192.2 336

6.9% 4.1% 2.7%

TENV: non-hazardous Revenues ($M) 30.9 Units (k) 119.7 ASP ($) 258

35.3 127.3 277

37.5 129.5 290

34.6 124.5 278

31.6 119.9 263

32.4 120.4 269

34.1 122.2 279

40.1 139.4 288

46.4 154.2 301

55.3 171.8 322

6.7% 4.1% 2.5%

4.6 14.2 323

5.5 14.7 374

6.3 15.5 406

5.9 14.7 401

6.4 14.8 432

6.8 15.6 436

7.4 16.8 440

8.1 18.2 445

8.8 19.7 449

9.3 20.4 454

8.2% 4.1% 3.9%


363.0 1,995.0 182

390.0 2,012.3 194

386.0 2,009.0 192

392.1 2,038.8 192

417.0 2,121.1 197

451.0 2,227.3 202

489.4 2,346.7 209

531.5 2,462.3 216

587.4 2,604.3 226

7.3% 4.3% 2.8%


132.0 386.0 342

147.4 410.8 359

137.3 396.2 346

140.1 412.1 340

143.1 411.6 348

149.2 413.6 361

154.9 416.9 372

166.7 428.5 389

183.1 440.1 416

6.1% 2.7% 3.3%

4,787.4 13.6%

5,285.1 10.4%

5,242.1 -0.8%

5,540.2 5.7%

5,890.1 6.3%

6,433.7 9.2%

6,962.0 8.2%

7,666.2 10.1%

8,678.1 13.2%

8.4%

28,816.4 30,206.0 31,877.9 4.7% 4.8% 5.5%

5.1%


TEFC: hazardous Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($) TENV: Total Revenues ($M) Units (k) ASP ($)



4,214.0


22,695.0 24,054.7 24,421.3 11.0% 6.0% 1.5%

25,302.3 26,239.8 27,525.7 3.6% 3.7% 4.9%

Source: IHS

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Figure 5.22

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Enclosure Type - Market Breakdown and Growth 5,500

10%

5,000

9%

4,500

2013 Revenues

Growth 2014

8%

4,000

3,000

6%

2,500

5%

2,000

4%

Growth (%)

Revenues ($M)

Growth 2015

7%

3,500

1,500 3%

1,000 500

2%

0

1%

Source: IHS

Jul-14

Figure 5.23

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Enclosure Type - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 25%

TEFC: nonhazardous

Growth (%)

20%

TEFC: hazardous

15%

TENV: nonhazardous

10%

TENV: hazardous

5%

ODP: nonhazardous

0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

-5%

2016

2017

2018

Other: nonhazardous Total Market

-10%


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Table 5.14

The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors Shares by Revenue

2013 Share

Company Name 1.

Siemens

8.5%

2

ABB

5.5%

3

TEC O

4.0%

4

Toshiba

4.0%

5.

Hyosung

4.0%

6.

Hitachi

4.0%

7.

HHI

3.5%

8.

Huali

3.0%

9.

Luan JiangHuai

2.5%

10.

WEG

2.5%

11.

Annhui Wannan

2.5%

12.

Tech Full Simo

2.0%

13.

Hengshui (OX)

2.0%

14.

Crompton Greaves

2.0%

15.

Fuji Electric

2.0%

Others

48.0%

Note 1: The market in 2013 was estimated to be worth $5,540.2 million. Note 2: Market shares have been rounded to the nearest 0.5%.

Source: IHS

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Appendix One - List of tables and figures List of tables 1.0 Exchange Rates Used........................................................................................................................................... 27 2.0 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors by Efficiency Class Equivalents ........................................................ 33 2.1 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors by Efficiency Class ............................................................................ 66 2.2 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors by Region .......................................................................................... 69 2.3aThe World Market for Low Voltage Motors by Application ................................................................................... 71 2.3bThe World Market for Low Voltage Motors by Application ................................................................................... 72 2.4 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors by Discrete, Process & Other Manufacturing Sectors ....................... 74 2.5aThe World Market for Low Voltage Motors by Discrete Sector ............................................................................ 75 2.5bThe World Market for Low Voltage Motors by Discrete Sector ............................................................................ 76 2.6 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors by Process Sector ............................................................................. 78 2.7 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors by Other Sector ................................................................................. 80 2.8 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors by IEC v. NEMA ................................................................................ 82 2.9 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors by IEC Frame Size ............................................................................ 83 2.10 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors by NEMA Frame Size ...................................................................... 85 2.11 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors by Sales Channel ............................................................................ 87 2.12 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors by Power Rating .............................................................................. 89 2.13 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors by Enclosure Type........................................................................... 91 2.14 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors Shares by Revenue ......................................................................... 93 3.1 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors by Efficiency Class ......................................................................... 110 3.2a The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors by Region ..................................................................................... 113 3.2b The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors by Region ..................................................................................... 114 3.3a The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors by Application ............................................................................... 117 3.3b The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors by Application ............................................................................... 118 3.4 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors by Discrete, Process & Other Manufacturing Sectors .................... 120 3.5a The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors by Discrete Sector ........................................................................ 121 3.5b The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors by Discrete Sector ........................................................................ 122 3.6 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors by Process Sector .......................................................................... 124 3.7 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors by Other Sector .............................................................................. 126 3.8 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors by IEC v. NEMA ............................................................................. 128 3.9 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors by IEC Frame Size ......................................................................... 129 3.10 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors by NEMA Frame Size ................................................................... 131 3.11 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors by Sales Channel ......................................................................... 133 3.12 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors by Power Rating ........................................................................... 135 3.13 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors by Enclosure Type ........................................................................ 137 3.14 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors Shares by Revenue ...................................................................... 139 4.1 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors by Efficiency Class .................................................................... 153 4.2 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors by Region ................................................................................... 156 4.3a The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors by Application .......................................................................... 158 4.3b The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors by Application .......................................................................... 159 4.4 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors by Discrete, Process & Other Manufacturing Sectors ............... 161 4.5a The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors by Discrete Sector ................................................................... 162

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4.5b The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors by Discrete Sector ................................................................... 163 4.6 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors by Process Sector ..................................................................... 165 4.7 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors by Other Sector ......................................................................... 167 4.8 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors by IEC v. NEMA ......................................................................... 169 4.9 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors by IEC Frame Size .................................................................... 170 4.10 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors by NEMA Frame Size .............................................................. 172 4.11 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors by Sales Channel .................................................................... 174 4.12 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors by Power Rating ...................................................................... 176 4.13 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors by Enclosure Type ................................................................... 178 4.14 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors Shares by Revenue ................................................................. 180 5.1 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors by Efficiency Class ................................................................. 193 5.2 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors by Region ............................................................................... 196 5.3a The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors by Application....................................................................... 198 5.3b The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors by Application....................................................................... 199 5.4 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors by Discrete, Process & Other Manufacturing Sectors ........... 201 5.5a The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors by Discrete Sector................................................................ 202 5.5b The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors by Discrete Sector................................................................ 203 5.6 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors by Process Sector .................................................................. 205 5.7 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors by Other Sector ...................................................................... 207 5.8 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors by IEC v. NEMA ..................................................................... 209 5.9 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors by IEC Frame Size ................................................................. 210 5.10 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors by NEMA Frame Size .......................................................... 212 5.11 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors by Sales Channel ................................................................. 214 5.12 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors by Power Rating................................................................... 216 5.13 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors by Enclosure Type ............................................................... 218 5.14 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors Shares by Revenue ............................................................. 220 List of figures 2.1 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Efficiency Class - Share of Market - 2010 to 2018 ...................... 67 2.2 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Efficiency Class - Market Breakdown and Growth ...................... 67 2.3 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Efficiency Class - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 ........ 68 2.4 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Region - Market Breakdown and Growth..................................... 70 2.5 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Region - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 ...................... 70 2.6 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Application - Market Breakdown and Growth .............................. 73 2.7 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Application - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018................ 73 2.8 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Discrete Sector - Market Breakdown and Growth ....................... 77 2.9 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Discrete Sector - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018......... 77 2.10 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Process Sector - Market Breakdown and Growth ..................... 79 2.11 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Process Sector - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 ....... 79 2.12 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Other Sector - Market Breakdown and Growth ......................... 81 2.13 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Other Sector - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 ........... 81 2.14 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By IEC Frame Size - Market Breakdown and Growth .................... 84 2.15 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By IEC Frame Size - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 ...... 84 2.16 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By NEMA Frame Size - Market Breakdown and Growth ................ 86 2.17 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By NEMA Frame Size - Revenue Growth Profiles 2010 to 2018 ....................................................................................................................................................... 86

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2.18 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Sales Channel - Market Breakdown and Growth ...................... 88 2.19 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Sales Channel - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 ........ 88 2.20 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Power Rating - Market Breakdown and Growth ........................ 90 2.21 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Power Rating - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018.......... 90 2.22 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Enclosure Type - Market Breakdown and Growth ..................... 92 2.23 The World Market for Low Voltage Motors By Enclosure Type - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 ...... 92 3.1 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Efficiency Class - Share of Market - 2010 to 2018 ................... 111 3.2 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Efficiency Class - Market Breakdown and Growth .................... 111 3.3 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Efficiency Class - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 ..... 112 3.4 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Region - Market Breakdown and Growth .................................. 115 3.5a The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Region - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 ................. 116 3.5b The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Region - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 ................. 116 3.6 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Application - Market Breakdown and Growth ........................... 119 3.7 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Application - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 ............. 123 3.8 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Discrete Sector - Market Breakdown and Growth .................... 123 3.9 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Discrete Sector - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 ...... 125 3.10 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Process Sector - Market Breakdown and Growth ................... 125 3.11 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Process Sector - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 .... 125 3.12 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Other Sector - Market Breakdown and Growth ....................... 127 3.13 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Other Sector - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 ........ 127 3.14 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By IEC Frame Size - Market Breakdown and Growth .................. 130 3.15 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By IEC Frame Size - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 ... 130 3.16 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By NEMA Frame Size - Market Breakdown and Growth ............. 132 3.17 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By NEMA Frame Size - Revenue Growth Profiles 2010 to 2018 ..................................................................................................................................................... 134 3.18 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Sales Channel - Market Breakdown and Growth .................... 136 3.19 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Sales Channel - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 ..... 136 3.20 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Power Rating - Market Breakdown and Growth ..................... 136 3.21 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Power Rating - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 ....... 136 3.22 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Enclosure Type - Market Breakdown and Growth .................. 138 3.23 The EMEA Market for Low Voltage Motors By Enclosure Type - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 ... 138 4.1 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Efficiency Class - Share of Market - 2010 to 2018 ............... 154 4.2 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Efficiency Class - Market Breakdown and Growth ............... 154 4.3 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Efficiency Class - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 155 4.4 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Region - Market Breakdown and Growth ............................. 157 4.5 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Region - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 .............. 157 4.6 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Application - Market Breakdown and Growth ....................... 160 4.7 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Application - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 ........ 160 4.8 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Discrete Sector - Market Breakdown and Growth ................ 164 4.9 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Discrete Sector - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 . 164 4.10 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Process Sector - Market Breakdown and Growth .............. 166 4.11 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Process Sector - Revenue Growth Profiles 2010 to 2018 ..................................................................................................................................................... 166 4.12 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Other Sector - Market Breakdown and Growth .................. 168 4.13 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Other Sector - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 ... 168

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4.14 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By IEC Frame Size - Market Breakdown and Growth ............. 171 4.15 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By IEC Frame Size - Revenue Growth Profiles 2010 to 2018 ..................................................................................................................................................... 171 4.16 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By NEMA Frame Size - Market Breakdown and Growth ........ 173 4.17 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By NEMA Frame Size - Revenue Growth Profiles 2010 to 2018 ..................................................................................................................................................... 173 4.18 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Sales Channel - Market Breakdown and Growth ............... 175 4.19 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Sales Channel - Revenue Growth Profiles 2010 to 2018 ..................................................................................................................................................... 175 4.20 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Power Rating - Market Breakdown and Growth ................. 177 4.21 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Power Rating - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 .. 177 4.22 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Enclosure Type - Market Breakdown and Growth ............. 179 4.23 The Americas Market for Low Voltage Motors By Enclosure Type - Revenue Growth Profiles 2010 to 2018 ..................................................................................................................................................... 179 5.1 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Efficiency Class - Share of Market - 2010 to 2018 ........... 194 5.2 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Efficiency Class - Market Breakdown and Growth ........... 194 5.3 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Efficiency Class - Revenue Growth Profiles 2010 to 2018 ....................................................................................................................................................... 195 5.4 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Region - Market Breakdown and Growth ......................... 197 5.5 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Region - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 .......... 197 5.6 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Application - Market Breakdown and Growth ................... 200 5.7 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Application - Revenue Growth Profiles - 2010 to 2018 .... 200 5.8 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Discrete Sector - Market Breakdown and Growth ............ 204 5.9 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Discrete Sector - Revenue Growth Profiles - 204 2010 to 2018 ....................................................................................................................................................... 204 5.10 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Process Sector - Market Breakdown and Growth .......... 206 5.11 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Process Sector - Revenue Growth Profiles 2010 to 2018 ..................................................................................................................................................... 206 5.12 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Other Sector - Market Breakdown and Growth .............. 208 5.13 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Other Sector - Revenue Growth Profiles 2010 to 2018 ..................................................................................................................................................... 208 5.14 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By IEC Frame Size - Market Breakdown and Growth ......... 211 5.15 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By IEC Frame Size - Revenue Growth Profiles 2010 to 2018 ..................................................................................................................................................... 211 5.16 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By NEMA Frame Size - Market Breakdown and Growth ..... 213 5.17 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By NEMA Frame Size - Revenue Growth Profiles 2010 to 2018 ..................................................................................................................................................... 213 5.18 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Sales Channel - Market Breakdown and Growth ........... 215 5.19 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Sales Channel - Revenue Growth Profiles 2010 to 2018 ..................................................................................................................................................... 215 5.20 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Power Rating - Market Breakdown and Growth ............. 217 5.21 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Power Rating - Revenue Growth Profiles 2010 to 2018 ..................................................................................................................................................... 217 5.22 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Enclosure Type - Market Breakdown and Growth.......... 219 5.23 The Asia Pacific Market for Low Voltage Motors By Enclosure Type - Revenue Growth Profiles 2010 to 2018 ..................................................................................................................................................... 219

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Appendix Two - Company directory 2014 Company Directory Company ABB Industrial Systems ABM Greiffenberger AO Smith Corporation Annhui Wannan ATB Motorenwerke GmbH Arҫelik A.Ş Baldor Motors & Drives Bonfiglioli Riduttori SpA Brook Crompton Cantoni Motor Carpanelli Motori Eletrici SpA CEMP International Crompton Greaves Global Marathon Electric Elektromotorenwerk Brienz AG EMOD Motoren GmbH EM Brno sro EMZ Fuji Electric Fimet Motori & Ridutorri SpA Fukuta Elec.& Mach. Co., Ltd Gamak Motors GE Energy Hengshui (OX) Hitachi Industrial Higen Motor Hyosung Hyundai Heavy Industries Jiangsu Dazhong Končar Electrical Industry, Inc. Küenle Antriebssysteme GmbH Lafert Group Lafert Metric Motors Leroy Somer LEZ Ruselprom Luan JiangHuai Louis Allis

Location

Telephone

Website

Zurich, Switzerland Marktredwitz, Germany Wisconsin, USA Annhui, China Vienna, Austria Cerkezkӧy, Turkey Arkansas, USA Bologna, Italy West Yorkshire,UK Bielsko-Biata, Poland Bologna, Italy Milan, Italy Mumbai, India Arnhem, The Netherlands Brienz, Switzerland Bad Salzchlirf, Germany Brno, Czech Republic Recklinghousen, Germany Tokyo, Japan Bra, Italy Taichung Hsein, Taiwan Istanbul, Turkey Connecticut, USA Hebei, China Chiba, Japan Seoul, South Korea Seoul, Korea Seoul, South Korea Jiangsu, China Zagreb, Croatia Hemmingen, Germany Venice, Italy Ontario, Canada Angoulême, France Moscow, Russia Luan, China Alabama, USA

41 43 317 7111 49 0 9231 670 1 414 359 4000 86 563 503 1948 43 1 90 250 0 90 0 282 736 50 50 1 479 646 4711 39 0516 473111 44 1484 557200 48 33 813 87 00 39 051 8902811 39 02 94435401 91 22 2423 7777 31 026 3541 600 41 033 951 3131 49 0 6648 510 420 5484 27411 49 2361 6909 0 81 3 5435 7186 39 172 438 411 886 4 2528 8833 90 216 364 1800 1 203 373 2211 86 318 2150842 81 47 493 8091 82 70 7708 8030 82 2 707 6024 82 2 726 4555 86 523 8454 2225 385 1 3655 555 49 0 7150 942 234 39 0421 229 611 905 629 1939 33 05 45 94 40 79 7 495 600 42 53 86 564 3368617 1 205 543 1065

www.abb.com www.abm-antriebe.de www.aosmith.com www.wnmotor.com www.atb-motors.com www.arecelik.com www.baldor.com www.bonfiglioli.com www.brookcrompton.com www.cantonimotor.com www.carpanelli.net www.cemp-international.it www.cgglobal.com www.regalbeloit.eu www.emwb.ch www.emod-motoren.de www.embrno.cz www.emz.de www.fujielectric.com www.fimet.com www.fukuta-motor.com.tw www.gamak.com www.ge.com www.china-ox-motor.com www.hitachi-ies.co.jp www.higenmotor.com www.hyosung.com www.hhi.co.kr www.dzemchina.com www.koncar.com www.kueenle.de www.lafert.com www.lafertna.com www.leroy-somer.com www.ruselprom.ru www.jh-dj.cn www.louisallis.com

Source: IMS Research

July 2014

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Appendix 2.1 (ii)

2014 Company Directory Company Marelli Motori SpA Nidec Motor Corporation North American Electric, Inc. NovaTorque Motori Bonora SpA Motori Elettrici Bonani SpA Oswald Elektromotoren GmbH Jiangsu Qingjiang Ramme Elektro-Maschinen-Bau GmbH Regal Beloit Shandong Huali Electric Motor Group Schorch Elektrische Maschinen Siemens SICME Motori SpA STM Riduttori SpA Tatung Electric Motors Tech Full Simo TECHTOP Shanghai Top Motor Co. LTD TECO Electric & Machinery Co. LTD TECO-Westinghouse Motor Company T-T Electric Toshiba JAPAN Toshiba USA TMEIC VEM Group Valtaro Motori SpA WEG Electric Brazil Wonder Electric Co., Ltd Yaskawa Electric Corporation Zhejiang Xipu Electric Co

Location

Telephone

Website

Vicenza, Italy St. Louis, USA Missouri, USA California, USA Cento, Italy Parma, Italy Miltenberg, Germany Jiangsu, China Osterwieck, Germany Wisconsin, USA Shandong Province, China Moenchengladbach, Germany Munich, Germany Torino, Italy Bologna, Italy Tapei, Taiwan Xi'an, China Shanghai, China Taipei, Taiwan Texas, USA Persan, France Tokyo, Japan Houston, USA Tokyo, Japan Wernigerode, Germany Parma, Italy Jaragua do Sul, Brazil Fujian, China Kitakyushu, Japan Wenzhou, China

39 0444 479711 1 888 637 7333 1 662 429 8049 1 408 739 2400 39 051 90 2472 39 0521 293502 49 9371 9719 86 0517 83739982 49 39421 6950 608 364 8800 86 63 175 51153 49 021 66 925 658 49 89 636 00 39 011 4076311 39 051 3765711 886 2 8676 6888 86 029 861 71116 86 21 681 22686 02 2655 3333 1 512 255 4141 33 01 30 28 62 01 81 3 3457 4511 1 713 466 0277 81 3 5444 3828 49 0 3943 68 3305 39 0525 998560 55 47 3276-4000 86 0591 83998588 81 93 645 7745 86 577 62890266

www.marellitmotori.com www.nidec-motor.com www.naemotors.com www.novatorque.com www.motoribonora.com www.bonani.it www.oswald.de www.qjem.com www.ramme.com www.regalbeloit.com www.hualimotor.com.cn www.schorch.de www.siemens.com www.sicmemotori.it www.stmspa.com www.tatung.com.tw/heavy www.simo.com.cn www.motor-techtop.com www.teco.com.tw www.tecowestinghouse.com www.t-telectric.com www.toshiba.com www.toshiba.com/ind www.tmeic.co.jp www.vem-group.com www.csm-motori.com www.weg.net www.wonder-cn.com www.yaskawa.co.jp www.xipugroup.com

Source: IMS Research

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Appendix Three - Discrete, process & other industry codes Appendix 3, Table 1.1

Correlation of Discrete Industry Sectors With those Used in ISIC, NAICS, NACE Discrete Industries

ISIC Automotive Automotive Industry

NAICS

NACE

Description

29, 3093361, 3362, 3363

29, 30.9

Motor vehicles, bicycles, parts & trailers

Commercial HVACR Commercial HVACR Equipment

[Not Defined]

3334

28.25

Non-domestic ventilation, heating & refrigeration

Machinery Agricultural Machinery Food, Beverage & Tobacco Machinery Food & Beverage Machinery Tobacco Machinery Furnaces & Furnace Burners Machine Tools Machine Tools - Metal Cutting Machine Tools - Metal Forming Materials Handling Equipment (MHE) MHE - Conveyors MHE - Lifts & Hoists MHE - Cranes MHE - Elevators & Escalators Packaging Machinery Pulp & Paper Machinery Printing Machinery PV Manufacturing Equipment Robotics Rubber & Plastics Machinery Rubber Machinery Plastics Machinery Semiconductor Machinery Textile Machinery Woodworking Machinery Other Machinery Cement/Glass Transform Equipment Commercial/Service Equipment Construction Machinery Electronics/Assembly Equipment EPOS, EFT & Automatic ID Equipment Flat Panel Display Equipment Medical/Scientific Equipment Metalworking Equipment (ex. MT) Mining Machinery Oil & Gas Machinery Wind Turbines

2821 333111 2825 [Not Defined] [Not Defined] 333241 [Not Defined] 333249 2815 333994 2822 333515,333517 2822 333515 2822 333517 2816 33392 [Not Defined] 333922 [Not Defined] [Not Defined] [Not Defined] 333923 [Not Defined] 333921 [Not Defined] 333993 [Not Defined] 333243 [Not Defined] 333244 [Not Defined] [Not Defined] [Not Defined] [Not Defined] [Not Defined] 333249 [Not Defined] 333249 [Not Defined] 333249 [Not Defined] 333242 2826 333249 [Not Defined] 333243 [Not Defined] [Not Defined] [Not Defined] [Not Defined] [Not Defined] 33331 2824 333120 [Not Defined] [Not Defined] [Not Defined] [Not Defined] [Not Defined] [Not Defined] 325 3391 2823 333519 2824 333131 [Not Defined] 333132 [Not Defined] [Not Defined]

28.3 28.93 28.93.17 28.93.19 28.21 28.4 28.49 28.41 28.22 28.22.17 28.22.16 28.22.14 28.22.16 [Not Defined] 28.95 28.99.1 [Not Defined] 28.99.3935 28.96 28.96.10 28.96.20 28.99.20 28.94 [Not Defined] [Not Defined] [Not Defined] [Not Defined] 28.922 [Not Defined] [Not Defined] [Not Defined] 32.5 28.91 28.921 [Not Defined] [Not Defined]

Farm, forestry & equipment manufacturing Food & tobacco processing machinery manufacturing Food product & beverage machinery manufacturing Tobacco processing machinery (except farm-type) Industrial furnaces, ovens, & electric heating equip. Manufacturing of metalworking machine tools Manufacturing of metal cutting type machine tools Manufacturing of metal forming type machine tools Manufacturing of material handling equipment Manufacturing of conveying equipment Pulley tackle, hoists, jacks, lifting frames Overhead travelling crane & carriers manufacturing Elevators, moving stairway, skip hoists Packaging & labelling machinery manufacturing Pulp, paper, paperboard mills & converting machines Printing machinery, book-binding machinery Photovoltaic manufacturing equipment Controlled, reprogrammable multipurpose >3 axis Rubber & plastics machinery manufacturing Rubber machinery manufacturing Plastics machinery, plastic injection machinery Semiconductor machinery manufacturing Machinery for textile, apparel & leather production Sawmill, veneer, plywood woodworking machinery

Source: IHS

July 2014

Machinery for cement & glass production Commercial & service industry machinery Construction Machinery Manufacturing PCB assembly, automatic soldering & removal equip. EPOS, EFT & automatic ID equipment Flat panel display machinery manufacturing Medical, surgical equipment & orthopedic appliances Rolling mill, metalworking, metallurgy machinery Machinery for mining manufacturing Oil & gas field equipment manufacturing Manufacturing of wind turbines

Jun-13

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IHS Technology


Appendix 3, Table 1.2

Correlation of Discrete Industry Sectors With those Used in ISIC, NAICS, NACE Discrete Industries

ISIC

NAICS

NACE

Description

Marine Marine Industry

301

3366

30.1

Ship & boat building

Military & Aerospace Military Equipment Aerospace Equipment

304 303

336992 3364

30.4 30.3

Military armored vehicle & weapons manufacturing Aerospace product & parts manufacturing

Rolling Stock Locomotive/Rolling Stock Industry

302

3365

30.2

Manufacture of railway locomotives & rolling stock

Note: Codes provided correlate to the following editions: ISIC Rev 4, NAICS 2012, NACE 2008.

Source: IHS

July 2014

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IHS Technology


Appendix Four - IHS GDP and machinery production forecasts Table 1. Americas

IHS GDP Forecasts % Annual Growth 2007 - 2019

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Brazil Canada Mexico & Central America Rest of South America US

6.1% 2.0% 3.9% 6.4% 1.8%

5.2% 1.2% 2.0% 4.0% -0.3%

-0.3% -2.7% -3.7% -0.3% -2.8%

7.5% 3.4% 4.7% 4.7% 2.5%

2.7% 2.5% 3.9% 6.2% 1.8%

1.0% 1.7% 3.7% 3.6% 2.8%

2.3% 2.0% 1.7% 3.4% 1.9%

1.5% 2.2% 2.8% 1.4% 2.2%

2.5% 2.4% 4.1% 2.4% 3.1%

3.5% 2.7% 4.0% 3.8% 3.4%

3.8% 2.6% 4.0% 4.1% 3.3%

3.8% 2.5% 3.6% 4.1% 2.8%

3.8% 2.5% 3.6% 4.1% 2.8%

Americas

2.6%

0.7%

-2.5%

3.3%

2.4%

2.6%

2.0%

2.1%

3.0%

3.4%

3.4%

3.0%

3.0%

Source: IHS

Jun-14

Table 2. Europe


2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Austria Belgium Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Italy Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey UK & Ireland Rest of Europe & CIS (exc Czech Rep & Hungary) Rest of Europe & CIS

3.7% 2.9% 5.7% 1.6% 5.3% 2.3% 3.4% 3.5% 0.1% 1.5% 3.9% 2.7% 6.8% 2.4% 3.5% 3.4% 3.8% 4.7% 3.6%

0.9% 1.0% 2.9% -0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% -0.2% 0.7% -1.2% 1.8% 0.0% 5.1% 0.0% 0.9% -0.8% 2.2% 0.7% -0.9%

-3.5% -2.8% -4.4% -5.7% -8.5% -2.9% -5.1% -3.1% -6.7% -5.5% -3.7% -1.4% 1.6% -2.9% -3.8% -5.0% -1.9% -4.8% -5.3%

1.9% 2.3% 2.3% 1.4% 3.4% 1.9% 3.9% -4.9% 1.0% 1.7% 1.5% 0.6% 3.9% 1.9% -0.2% 6.3% 3.0% 9.2% 1.4%

2.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.1% 2.8% 2.1% 3.4% -7.1% 1.6% 0.6% 1.0% 1.1% 4.5% -1.3% 0.1% 3.0% 1.8% 8.8% 1.2%

0.7% -0.1% -0.9% -0.4% -1.0% 0.4% 0.9% -7.0% -1.7% -2.4% -1.3% 2.8% 2.0% -3.2% -1.6% 1.3% 1.0% 2.1% 0.3%

0.4% 0.2% -0.9% 0.4% -1.4% 0.4% 0.5% -3.9% 1.2% -1.8% -0.8% 0.7% 1.6% -1.4% -1.2% 1.6% 2.0% 4.0% 1.5%

1.5% 1.3% 2.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.6% 2.1% 0.3% 2.5% 0.3% 0.6% 1.2% 3.1% 0.8% 0.9% 2.0% 1.9% 3.3% 3.0%

2.0% 1.9% 2.8% 1.8% 1.3% 1.3% 2.0% 1.7% 2.7% 1.1% 1.6% 1.3% 3.4% 1.3% 1.4% 2.2% 2.2% 3.4% 2.7%

1.8% 2.3% 3.3% 2.2% 2.1% 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 3.0% 1.2% 1.9% 1.5% 3.8% 1.5% 1.6% 2.3% 1.7% 3.6% 2.7%

1.6% 2.0% 3.9% 2.2% 2.4% 2.0% 1.7% 2.1% 3.5% 1.1% 1.8% 1.8% 4.2% 1.9% 1.9% 2.2% 1.3% 4.1% 2.4%

1.7% 2.1% 3.8% 1.9% 2.1% 1.8% 1.5% 2.3% 4.0% 1.1% 1.9% 1.8% 4.3% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 1.3% 4.2% 2.3%

1.7% 2.1% 3.8% 1.9% 2.1% 1.8% 1.5% 2.3% 4.0% 1.1% 1.9% 1.8% 4.3% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 1.3% 4.2% 2.3%

8.4%

5.0%

-6.9%

3.8%

4.1%

2.7%

1.8%

1.1%

2.3%

3.1%

7.8%

4.6%

-6.7%

3.6%

3.8%

2.3%

1.6%

1.2%

2.3%

3.1%

3.8% 3.8%

3.7% 3.7%

3.7% 3.7%

Europe

3.8%

0.9%

-4.6%

2.5%

2.2%

0.3%

0.5%

1.5%

2.0%

2.2%

2.3%

2.2%

2.2%

Source: IHS

July 2014

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IHS Technology


Table 3. Asia Pacific


China India Japan Malaysia Oceania Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand Rest of Asia (exc Malaysia) Rest of Asia (inc Malaysia)

Asia Pac Asia Pac (ex Japan)

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

14.2% 9.8% 2.2% 6.3% 4.4% 9.0% 5.5% 6.0% 5.0% 6.4% 6.4%

9.6% 3.9% -1.1% 4.8% 2.4% 1.9% 2.8% 0.7% 2.5% 4.7% 4.7%

9.2% 8.5% -5.5% -1.5% 1.5% -0.6% 0.7% -1.8% -2.3% 2.9% 2.4%

10.5% 10.3% 4.7% 7.4% 2.2% 15.1% 6.5% 10.8% 7.8% 6.2% 6.3%

9.3% 6.6% -0.4% 5.1% 2.5% 6.0% 3.7% 4.2% 0.1% 5.9% 5.8%

7.7% 4.7% 1.4% 5.6% 3.6% 1.9% 2.3% 1.5% 6.5% 5.5% 5.5%

7.7% 5.0% 1.5% 4.7% 2.4% 4.1% 3.0% 2.1% 2.9% 5.7% 5.5%

7.3% 5.4% 1.4% 5.4% 3.0% 3.3% 3.6% 3.3% 1.8% 5.4% 5.4%

7.1% 6.2% 1.3% 5.3% 2.7% 4.1% 3.7% 3.8% 3.7% 5.7% 5.7%

7.2% 6.5% 0.9% 5.1% 2.9% 4.1% 3.7% 4.2% 4.2% 5.8% 5.7%

7.4% 7.3% 1.5% 4.7% 2.8% 4.2% 3.5% 4.0% 4.2% 5.4% 5.3%

7.6% 7.4% 1.4% 4.7% 2.8% 4.2% 3.5% 3.6% 4.2% 5.2% 5.1%

7.6% 7.4% 1.4% 4.7% 2.8% 4.2% 3.5% 3.6% 4.2% 5.2% 5.1%

6.9% 9.6%

3.5% 5.9%

1.9% 5.5%

7.4% 8.5%

4.6% 6.8%

4.6% 5.8%

4.6% 5.8%

4.6% 5.8%

4.7% 5.9%

4.8% 6.0%

5.0% 6.2%

5.2% 6.3%

5.2% 6.3%

Source: IHS

Jun-14

Table 4. Aggregated Regions


2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Austria & Switzerland Benelux Central & Eastern Europe EMEA Middle East & Africa Nordic Countries Russian Federation & CIS Spain & Portugal

3.8% 3.6% 6.6% 4.1% 6.0% 3.1% 8.9% 3.3%

1.6% 1.4% 4.1% 1.6% 5.6% -0.3% 5.2% 0.8%

-2.6% -3.4% -7.6% -3.5% 2.4% -4.7% -6.7% -3.7%

2.5% 1.8% 0.0% 3.0% 5.4% 2.9% 4.8% 0.1%

2.2% 1.3% 2.3% 2.4% 3.2% 2.0% 4.5% -0.1%

0.9% -0.8% 0.4% 0.9% 3.9% 1.0% 3.3% -1.9%

1.3% -0.3% 1.6% 1.0% 3.1% 0.6% 1.9% -1.2%

1.7% 0.9% 1.8% 1.9% 3.7% 1.3% 0.9% 0.8%

2.1% 1.8% 2.7% 2.4% 4.6% 1.7% 2.2% 1.4%

1.8% 2.1% 3.4% 2.7% 5.3% 2.0% 3.1% 1.6%

1.4% 1.9% 3.6% 2.9% 5.2% 2.1% 3.8% 1.9%

1.4% 2.0% 3.8% 2.7% 4.9% 1.9% 3.7% 1.9%

1.4% 2.0% 3.8% 2.7% 4.9% 1.9% 3.7% 1.9%

World

4.3%

1.8%

-1.7%

4.3%

3.1%

2.5%

2.4%

2.8%

3.3%

3.6%

3.7%

3.6%

3.6%

Source: IHS

Jun-14

Table 1. Americas

MP FORECASTS % Annual Growth 2007 - 2019

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Brazil Canada Mexico & Central America Rest of South America US

9.2% 7.2% 8.3% 6.6% 9.2%

7.3% 4.6% 7.4% 5.6% 4.8%

-16.4% -17.6% -19.6% -11.7% -21.1%

15.1% 5.7% 7.9% 6.2% 17.9%

8.2% 11.7% 8.7% 8.1% 12.5%

-3.9% 7.6% 5.8% 2.7% 7.2%

4.2% 0.6% 4.1% 4.2% 1.9%

4.2% 3.5% 5.7% 4.1% 3.6%

3.4% 3.9% 5.0% 3.5% 4.9%

5.5% 4.6% 4.0% 4.1% 3.9%

4.6% 3.9% 5.2% 4.8% 3.3%

4.0% 3.1% 4.7% 4.0% 3.5%

3.8% 3.3% 4.3% 3.6% 3.9%

Americas

9.0%

4.9%

-20.3%

16.1%

12.1%

6.6%

1.9%

3.6%

4.7%

4.0%

3.5%

3.5%

3.8%

Source: IHS

July 2014

Jun-14

230

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IHS Technology


Table 2. Europe


Austria Belgium Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Italy Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey UK & Ireland Rest of Europe & CIS (exc Czech Rep & Hungary) Rest of Europe & CIS

Europe

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

7.5% 6.3% 15.9% 11.7% 10.6% 4.1% 9.4% 3.5% 13.8% 3.5% 4.1% 6.8% 13.7% 2.7% 5.0% 4.2% 2.8% 14.2% 2.1%

8.4% 2.2% 17.7% -4.0% 2.9% 0.9% 3.7% -16.2% 9.1% 1.7% 0.2% 16.6% 12.1% -0.3% -7.2% 0.3% -2.0% 3.2% -1.6%

-23.0% -25.4% -27.7% -25.3% -27.5% -18.1% -24.1% -27.0% -22.5% -16.0% -13.3% 4.2% -8.8% -4.2% -26.7% -35.3% -14.2% -10.4% -23.4%

6.5% -0.7% 13.7% -1.6% 9.8% 6.3% 14.6% -17.9% 41.5% 12.3% 17.1% 4.1% 12.6% -2.5% -4.3% 9.5% 8.1% 16.9% 12.0%

13.5% 12.2% 10.5% 13.5% 9.1% 6.0% 11.3% -8.0% 39.5% 8.7% 7.0% 6.4% 12.4% 4.0% 6.1% 17.5% 11.4% 22.1% 9.7%

5.2% -4.1% 2.5% 1.5% 0.5% -1.4% 1.1% -13.3% 1.9% -6.8% -3.7% 6.2% 3.8% -4.2% -1.2% -5.6% -7.7% 2.8% 2.1%

-0.9% -2.6% 2.8% 8.9% -5.0% -2.8% -1.2% 4.5% -0.8% -5.7% 0.1% 14.4% 0.3% -0.8% 0.2% -9.7% -2.5% 7.3% -11.6%

4.9% 2.1% 8.7% 3.2% 3.5% 2.6% 4.9% -3.2% 11.5% 2.5% 2.6% 4.9% 3.9% 1.8% 3.5% 4.4% 3.5% 6.6% 4.4%

4.2% 3.5% 9.8% 4.1% 4.5% 3.8% 3.6% 1.6% 11.2% 3.0% 4.0% 3.7% 7.0% 3.0% 4.1% 2.9% 4.0% 7.5% 2.3%

4.4% 3.7% 8.6% 4.8% 5.4% 3.7% 3.2% 2.7% 9.7% 3.7% 3.7% 4.4% 7.6% 2.5% 3.5% 4.4% 2.8% 6.6% 2.8%

3.9% 2.8% 9.1% 3.0% 3.4% 4.4% 3.9% 4.4% 11.0% 2.5% 4.0% 3.5% 7.1% 3.3% 4.4% 3.0% 2.5% 7.1% 2.8%

3.5% 2.5% 7.8% 2.1% 3.9% 3.7% 3.0% 4.7% 11.8% 2.0% 3.6% 3.2% 6.2% 2.8% 3.2% 2.8% 2.0% 6.0% 2.3%

3.8% 3.0% 7.4% 2.6% 2.7% 3.4% 3.3% 5.4% 10.7% 2.3% 3.3% 3.9% 6.6% 2.5% 3.0% 2.6% 1.7% 5.6% 2.0%

5.7%

7.7%

-12.4%

8.8%

11.6%

6.0%

4.4%

4.5%

4.2%

4.8%

4.5%

4.0%

3.6%

7.5%

9.0%

-15.3%

12.4%

14.7%

5.1%

3.5%

5.8%

5.8%

5.9%

6.0%

5.7%

5.2%

6.4%

2.1%

-20.5%

10.7%

10.6%

-0.6%

-2.0%

4.1%

3.9%

3.9%

4.0%

3.3%

3.3%

Source: IHS

Jun-14

Table 3. Asia Pacific


2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

China India Japan Malaysia Oceania Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand Rest of Asia (ex Malaysia) Rest of Asia (inc Malaysia)

26.7% 4.5% 2.8% 7.9% 4.4% 10.8% 9.4% 16.9% 9.1% 6.6% 6.6%

21.1% 7.8% -5.0% 3.4% 2.1% -1.9% 0.5% -12.1% 6.6% 4.3% 4.3%

11.0% 7.2% -39.8% -20.1% -14.8% -14.0% -13.9% -31.1% -20.4% -11.5% -11.5%

31.2% 17.8% 38.4% 13.9% 9.6% 42.7% 19.8% 45.4% 21.2% 12.6% 12.6%

22.0% 13.0% 11.3% 9.0% 0.9% 14.0% 11.4% 8.4% -11.1% 10.1% 10.1%

4.3% -6.8% -6.2% 5.3% 4.8% 3.4% 1.8% -11.6% 7.4% 5.2% 5.2%

7.9% -7.8% 0.1% 4.5% 4.0% 7.7% 6.2% -5.5% 8.4% 4.6% 4.6%

7.8% 3.2% 6.7% 6.1% 3.9% 6.7% 6.9% 6.5% 4.8% 5.0% 5.0%

10.6% 5.4% 3.6% 5.5% 4.4% 7.8% 8.5% 6.0% 6.9% 4.9% 4.9%

9.5% 5.7% 3.0% 4.9% 3.4% 7.2% 7.0% 6.4% 6.3% 5.1% 5.1%

8.8% 6.5% 3.8% 4.4% 3.9% 6.2% 6.1% 4.4% 6.8% 4.6% 4.6%

7.9% 7.5% 2.6% 4.1% 3.1% 6.9% 5.8% 4.0% 5.8% 4.3% 4.3%

7.8% 8.1% 2.2% 3.9% 2.5% 6.3% 5.4% 3.6% 5.3% 4.5% 4.5%

Asia Pac Asia Pacific (ex Japan)

11.2% 18.2%

3.8% 10.2%

-15.4% -0.1%

31.5% 28.9%

15.9% 17.7%

-0.2% 2.1%

4.3% 5.7%

7.1% 7.2%

8.0% 9.4%

7.2% 8.6%

6.9% 7.9%

6.2% 7.3%

6.1% 7.1%

Source: IHS

July 2014

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IHS Technology


Table 4. Aggregated Regions


Austria & Switzerland Benelux Central & Eastern Europe EMEA Middle East & Africa Nordic Countries Russian Federation & CIS Spain & Portugal

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

5.1% 4.9% 7.2% 6.4% 0.0% 8.0% 4.8% 4.8%

3.2% 0.9% 5.4% 2.1% 0.0% 1.8% 3.4% -6.7%

-18.8% -17.6% -5.1% -20.5% 0.0% -26.3% -12.8% -25.1%

7.3% 11.4% 2.2% 10.7% 0.0% 6.4% 8.3% -4.1%

12.4% 8.5% 8.7% 10.6% 0.0% 12.3% 5.6% 5.9%

-1.2% -3.8% -0.9% -0.6% 0.0% -0.6% 5.3% -1.5%

-1.6% -0.7% 3.3% -2.0% 0.0% -0.7% 5.1% 0.1%

4.3% 2.5% 0.9% 4.1% 0.0% 4.0% 4.9% 3.4%

4.1% 3.9% 4.8% 3.9% 0.0% 3.8% 4.7% 4.0%

3.7% 3.7% 6.5% 3.9% 0.0% 4.8% 4.7% 3.4%

3.3% 3.7% 3.2% 4.0% 0.0% 3.2% 4.7% 4.3%

2.8% 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 0.0% 3.1% 0.0% 3.2%

2.9% 3.2% 4.1% 3.3% 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 3.0%

Source: IHS

July 2014

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© 2014 IHS

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