IranReport2_120312_2

Weighing Benefts and Costs o International Sanctions Against Iran

Weighing Beneits and Costs o International Sanctions Against Iran

D F Cz,

T pp   -    p  pv A u u           u    I—           . F     u

A  up       U S Gv  p     U.S.  u, u,  upp  pu    p, “W B  C  I S A I.” I.” W ppu     pp     u  jv, p    px  p p u. W   u  u   pp,       v    pp    p. W  uv   pp       u   pu       A    . W  v      P O’ p   pu  I u    p  p    p u,      u u  u          I  u  u p. T pp   v    ;    k p p . I k - jv v p      p  A        I. I ,     v u    k   k— ,    p v    p  I,  z p v p. W   p   A pu     p   u     u p  A ’  u. A L  , “I    v   pp. I v  u    p      . T  p       .” T pp k  “ ”   ,  p    puv v u   p    U.S.    v     I   u p.

Tis document is published by Te Iran Project; the content is the collective view o the signers.

Signed and Endorsed by:


Hamid Biglari

Stephen A. Cheney, BrigGen.

William G. Miller, Amb.

Vali R. Nasr

Joseph Cirincione

Suzanne DiMaggio

Gregory S. Newbold, LtGen.

Sam Nunn, Sen.

Paul H. O'Neill

George Perkovich

Edward P. Djerejian, Amb.

James Dobbins

Leslie H. Gelb

Chuck Hagel, Sen.

Thomas R. Pickering, Amb.

Paul R. Pillar

Lee H. Hamilt Hamilton on

Michael V. Hayden, Gen.

William A. Reinsch

Karim Sadjadpour

Stephen B. Heintz

Carla A. Hills

Faraj Saghri

Paul A. Volcker

Joseph P. Hoar, Gen.

Gary C. Hufbauer

James Walsh

John C. Whitehead

Frank Kearney, LTG.

Daniel C. Kurtzer, Amb.

Lawrence B. Wilkerson, Col.

Ellen Laipson

William H. Luers, Amb.

Frank G. Wisner, Amb.

Jessica T. Matthews

Richard T. McCormack, Amb.

2 weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran

Timothy E. Wirth, Sen.

Anthony C. Zinni, Gen.

weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran

3



Hamid Biglari

Stephen A. Cheney, BrigGen.

William G. Miller, Amb.

Vali R. Nasr

Joseph Cirincione

Suzanne DiMaggio

Gregory S. Newbold, LtGen.

Sam Nunn, Sen.

Paul H. O'Neill

George Perkovich

Edward P. Djerejian, Amb.

James Dobbins

Leslie H. Gelb

Chuck Hagel, Sen.

Thomas R. Pickering, Amb.

Paul R. Pillar

Lee H. Hamilt Hamilton on

Michael V. Hayden, Gen.

William A. Reinsch

Karim Sadjadpour

Stephen B. Heintz

Carla A. Hills

Faraj Saghri

Paul A. Volcker

Joseph P. Hoar, Gen.

Gary C. Hufbauer

James Walsh

John C. Whitehead

Frank Kearney, LTG.

Daniel C. Kurtzer, Amb.

Lawrence B. Wilkerson, Col.

Ellen Laipson

William H. Luers, Amb.

Frank G. Wisner, Amb.

Jessica T. Matthews

Richard T. McCormack, Amb.


Timothy E. Wirth, Sen.

Anthony C. Zinni, Gen.


  C

Letter ................................................................................................................................ 1 Executive Summary ................................................................................................... 7 I. Introduction .......................................................................................................... 19 II. Background Background on U.S. and U.S.-Led International Sanctions Against Iran .................................................................................... 23 1. Fu P  S....................................................................................... 23

N-     N-    “  .

”

III. Reections on Making Sanctions Work .................................................. 27 1. T Ojv  S .................................................................................. 27 2. Aup Au Au Iu  D  I’  ............................ 28 3. E  L S S.......................................................................... 30

IV. Benefts o the Sanctions .............................................................................. 33 1. Av  S S   P App...................................................... 33

Theodore Roosevelt

2. S  R  Exp  I’ Nu P .................................... 35 3. Wk I  Ru  R  G Iu ........................ 35 4. C I Dv     I ................................................ 39 5. E S M C I’ Nu N S .............. 41

V.. Costs o the Sanctions V Sanctions.................................................................................... 45 1. Dpu  U.S. U.S.    u ........................................................ 45 2. E  v p  u u u u  I .............. 46 3. Ep - -   ,  p v  ....... 47 4. L-   I   U U S .................................... 48 5. I p  U.S.–I U.S.–I    v........................... 49 6. P u u   I I ............................................................ 50 7. D     U U S,  Eup Eup ,    ....................................................................................................... 51 8. D      upp        k. ..................................................................... 54

A Primer on Sanctions Sanctions Against Against Iran ................................................................ 56 Chart Summarizing Sanctions Sanctions Against Iran, 1979 – Present................ 68 Endnotes ...................................................................................................................... 78 4 weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran

3

  C

Letter ................................................................................................................................ 1 Executive Summary ................................................................................................... 7 I. Introduction .......................................................................................................... 19 II. Background Background on U.S. and U.S.-Led International Sanctions Against Iran .................................................................................... 23 1. Fu P  S....................................................................................... 23

N-     N-    “  .

III. Reections on Making Sanctions Work .................................................. 27 1. T Ojv  S .................................................................................. 27

”

2. Aup Au Au Iu  D  I’  ............................ 28 3. E  L S S.......................................................................... 30

IV. Benefts o the Sanctions .............................................................................. 33 1. Av  S S   P App...................................................... 33 2. S  R  Exp  I’ Nu P .................................... 35

Theodore Roosevelt

3. Wk I  Ru  R  G Iu ........................ 35 4. C I Dv     I ................................................ 39 5. E S M C I’ Nu N S .............. 41

V.. Costs o the Sanctions V Sanctions.................................................................................... 45 1. Dpu  U.S. U.S.    u ........................................................ 45 2. E  v p  u u u u  I .............. 46 3. Ep - -   ,  p v  ....... 47 4. L-   I   U U S .................................... 48 5. I p  U.S.–I U.S.–I    v........................... 49 6. P u u   I I ............................................................ 50 7. D     U U S,  Eup Eup ,    ....................................................................................................... 51 8. D      upp        k. ..................................................................... 54

A Primer on Sanctions Sanctions Against Against Iran ................................................................ 56 Chart Summarizing Sanctions Sanctions Against Iran, 1979 – Present................ 68 Endnotes ...................................................................................................................... 78 4 weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Weighing Benefts and Costs o International Sanctions Against Iran A Paper rom The Iran Project

INTRODUCTION

P     ,         pu . “

Ronald Reagan

The United States and the international international community have used sanctions or nearly three decades to pressure Iran to adopt dierent oreign and domestic policies.

”

The sanctions regime now in place, including sanctions imposed by the United United Nations Security Council, demonstrates the ability o the United States to work eectively with allies and other concerned nations to build a common strategy on Iran. At its core, the sanctions regime reects the commitment o many key nations to preventing Iran rom becoming a nuclear-armed state. Sanctions against Iran have been perceived in diverse ways, by U.S. policymakers and legislators: As a means or getting Iran to the negotiating table; as bargaining chips in negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program; as a tactic or slowing the development o Iran’s nuclear program; as a counterterrorism measure designed to constrain Iran’s support o organizations such as Hezbollah and Hamas; as a way o orcing Iran to change domestic policies that violate the human rights o its citizens; even (in the minds o some) as a tool or bringing about regime change in Iran. Whatever the purpose or combination o purposes associated with a particular set o sanctions, the benefts o the sanctions have oten been taken as given, since the imposition o sanctions is widely considered to be the most powerul alternative to military action. Precisely because sanctions oer the possibility o achieving important objectives without the human and fnancial costs o ar med conict, the costs o sanctions themselves are not routinely addressed in the public or policymaking debate.

6 weighing beneits and costs o military action against iran

weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran 7

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Weighing Benefts and Costs o International Sanctions Against Iran A Paper rom The Iran Project

INTRODUCTION

P     ,         pu . “

The United States and the international international community have used sanctions or nearly three decades to pressure Iran to adopt dierent oreign and domestic policies.

”

Ronald Reagan

The sanctions regime now in place, including sanctions imposed by the United United Nations Security Council, demonstrates the ability o the United States to work eectively with allies and other concerned nations to build a common strategy on Iran. At its core, the sanctions regime reects the commitment o many key nations to preventing Iran rom becoming a nuclear-armed state. Sanctions against Iran have been perceived in diverse ways, by U.S. policymakers and legislators: As a means or getting Iran to the negotiating table; as bargaining chips in negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program; as a tactic or slowing the development o Iran’s nuclear program; as a counterterrorism measure designed to constrain Iran’s support o organizations such as Hezbollah and Hamas; as a way o orcing Iran to change domestic policies that violate the human rights o its citizens; even (in the minds o some) as a tool or bringing about regime change in Iran. Whatever the purpose or combination o purposes associated with a particular set o sanctions, the benefts o the sanctions have oten been taken as given, since the imposition o sanctions is widely considered to be the most powerul alternative to military action. Precisely because sanctions oer the possibility o achieving important objectives without the human and fnancial costs o ar med conict, the costs o sanctions themselves are not routinely addressed in the public or policymaking debate.


6 weighing beneits and costs o military action against iran

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

THE PURPOSE OF THIS PAPER

and analyses that inorm the debate on sanctions against Iran, particularly

The authors and signers of this paper are senior experts from from the national security and oreign policy communities who believe that a careul assessment o the costs as well as the benefts o sanctions will enhance the quality o debate about the sanctions regime and the role o sanctions in overall U.S. policy toward Iran. This report is not an advocacy document, or or against sanctions. It does not oer oer policy recommendations. Like our recent report,“Weighing report, “Weighing Benets and Costs o Military Action Against Iran,” this paper is balanced and act-based. But while the paper on military action sought to evaluate the benefts and costs o an action not yet taken, this paper on sanctions ocuses on a course o action to which the United States is already committed. Given the United States’ international leadership on sanctions as a strategy or pressuring Iran, this paper not only provides our assessment o the benefts and costs o the sanctions regime, but also oers some reections that might help the United States and its allies to get maximum advantage rom sanctions against Iran, while minimizing the potential or negative consequences.

with regard to achieving our objectives on Iran’s nuclear program. •

We have based our analysis and judgments on careful review of the excellent

research available on the topic o U.S. and U.S.-led international sanctions against Iran. We have tried to give ull credit to the work o others in the endnotes to this paper. Our own proessional judgments, when oered, are clearly identifed as such. •

We are mindful of the challenges of evaluating what constitutes a benet and a

cost o the sanctions against Iran. The U.S.-led international sanctions regime is still evolving and its longer-range eects are not ully apparent. Nonetheless, we believe that insights from the past thirty years of experience with sanctions against Iran can serve as a reasonable basis or thinking through uture outcomes.

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE PAPER The assessments highlighted below are treated treated in greater detail and with with ample source citations in the paper. 1. The complexity o the sanctions regime. The sanctions regime has evolved over almost three three decades and reects several

SHARED UNDERSTANDINGS The authors o this paper brought to their task some shared understandings that provided our diverse group with a common perspective.

unique stages in the troubled history o U.S.–Iran relations and international concerns about Iran. Many decision makers in Washington may not recall the history of the sanctions or fully gr asp their complexity. In summary form at the start of our paper, and in a detailed Primer on Sanctions Against Iran, Including Potential Future

•

We recognize that Iran’s actions—particularly with regard regard to its nuclear

Sanctions and Provisions or Liting the Sanctions, we attempt to disaggregate

program—pose complex and dangerous challenges to U.S. interests and security,

these multiple layers of sanctions, in order to provide a clearer context within

as well as to the security o Israel and possibly to stability in the Middle East. These

which to weigh sanctions’ benefts and costs.

challenges are serious and demand a response. That is the context within which we examine the benets and costs of sanctions.

Sanctions against Iran have been imposed through Executive Orders and legislation in the United States; resolutions passed by the United Nations Security Council; and

•

This paper focuses on the sanctions regime and does not consider complementary

actions taken by oreign gover nments. Dierent sets o sanctions rely on dierent

elements o U.S. policy toward Iran, such as the threat o military action or the pursuit

criteria, guidelines, and implementation vehicles. They also aim at a variety o outcomes,

o a negotiated settlement. In choosing to ocus on the sanctions element o U.S.

including achieving a negotiated agreement on Iran’ Iran’s s nuclear program; restricting Iran’s

policy,, we have oregone oppor tunities to weigh the benefts and costs o sanctions policy

ability to acquire materials or that program; slowing the development o Iran’s nuclear

as part o a larger strategy or dealing with Iran. In a subsequent paper, The Iran

program; ensuring that Iran discontinues unding o Hezbollah and Hamas; requiring

Project will ocus on a negotiating strategy or resolving tensions with Iran.

Iran to respect the human r ights of its citizens; limiting Iran’s ability to exert inuence

•

While there is a large body of literature iterature on the pros and cons of sanctions as a

policy tool, we make only occasional reerences to that broader debate. Nor do we attempt to assess the role that sanctions have played in recent U.S. and international eorts to aect the policies o states other than Iran. Our goal is to provide acts 8 weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran

in the region; and, or some in Washington, producing a change in Iran’s government (regime change or a undamental change in the Iranian gover nment’ nment’s s policy and orientation), although this latter objective has been disavowed by the U.S. government. The sanctions regime also includes a complicated mix of criteria and provisions for lifting or easing the sanctions currently in place, should that be warranted by Iranian actions. weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran 9

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

THE PURPOSE OF THIS PAPER

and analyses that inorm the debate on sanctions against Iran, particularly

The authors and signers of this paper are senior experts from from the national security and oreign policy communities who believe that a careul assessment o the costs as well as the benefts o sanctions will enhance the quality o debate about the sanctions regime and the role o sanctions in overall U.S. policy toward Iran. This report is not an advocacy document, or or against sanctions. It does not oer oer policy recommendations. Like our recent report,“Weighing report, “Weighing Benets and Costs o Military Action Against Iran,” this paper is balanced and act-based. But while the paper on military action sought to evaluate the benefts and costs o an action not yet taken, this paper on sanctions ocuses on a course o action to which the United States is already committed. Given the United States’ international leadership on sanctions as a strategy or pressuring Iran, this paper not only provides our assessment o the benefts and costs o the sanctions regime, but also oers some reections that might help the United States and its allies to get maximum advantage rom sanctions against Iran, while minimizing the potential or negative consequences.

with regard to achieving our objectives on Iran’s nuclear program. •

We have based our analysis and judgments on careful review of the excellent

research available on the topic o U.S. and U.S.-led international sanctions against Iran. We have tried to give ull credit to the work o others in the endnotes to this paper. Our own proessional judgments, when oered, are clearly identifed as such. •

We are mindful of the challenges of evaluating what constitutes a benet and a

cost o the sanctions against Iran. The U.S.-led international sanctions regime is still evolving and its longer-range eects are not ully apparent. Nonetheless, we believe that insights from the past thirty years of experience with sanctions against Iran can serve as a reasonable basis or thinking through uture outcomes.

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE PAPER The assessments highlighted below are treated treated in greater detail and with with ample source citations in the paper. 1. The complexity o the sanctions regime. The sanctions regime has evolved over almost three three decades and reects several

SHARED UNDERSTANDINGS The authors o this paper brought to their task some shared understandings that provided our diverse group with a common perspective.

unique stages in the troubled history o U.S.–Iran relations and international concerns about Iran. Many decision makers in Washington may not recall the history of the sanctions or fully gr asp their complexity. In summary form at the start of our paper, and in a detailed Primer on Sanctions Against Iran, Including Potential Future

•

We recognize that Iran’s actions—particularly with regard regard to its nuclear

Sanctions and Provisions or Liting the Sanctions, we attempt to disaggregate

program—pose complex and dangerous challenges to U.S. interests and security,

these multiple layers of sanctions, in order to provide a clearer context within

as well as to the security o Israel and possibly to stability in the Middle East. These

which to weigh sanctions’ benefts and costs.

challenges are serious and demand a response. That is the context within which we examine the benets and costs of sanctions.

Sanctions against Iran have been imposed through Executive Orders and legislation in the United States; resolutions passed by the United Nations Security Council; and

•

This paper focuses on the sanctions regime and does not consider complementary

actions taken by oreign gover nments. Dierent sets o sanctions rely on dierent

elements o U.S. policy toward Iran, such as the threat o military action or the pursuit

criteria, guidelines, and implementation vehicles. They also aim at a variety o outcomes,

o a negotiated settlement. In choosing to ocus on the sanctions element o U.S.

including achieving a negotiated agreement on Iran’ Iran’s s nuclear program; restricting Iran’s

policy,, we have oregone oppor tunities to weigh the benefts and costs o sanctions policy

ability to acquire materials or that program; slowing the development o Iran’s nuclear

as part o a larger strategy or dealing with Iran. In a subsequent paper, The Iran

program; ensuring that Iran discontinues unding o Hezbollah and Hamas; requiring

Project will ocus on a negotiating strategy or resolving tensions with Iran.

Iran to respect the human r ights of its citizens; limiting Iran’s ability to exert inuence

•

While there is a large body of literature iterature on the pros and cons of sanctions as a

policy tool, we make only occasional reerences to that broader debate. Nor do we attempt to assess the role that sanctions have played in recent U.S. and international eorts to aect the policies o states other than Iran. Our goal is to provide acts

in the region; and, or some in Washington, producing a change in Iran’s government (regime change or a undamental change in the Iranian gover nment’ nment’s s policy and orientation), although this latter objective has been disavowed by the U.S. government. The sanctions regime also includes a complicated mix of criteria and provisions for lifting or easing the sanctions currently in place, should that be warranted by Iranian actions. weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran 9


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2. Making sanctions work.

Sanctioning states are aced with the question o whether increasing sanc-

Reecting on three decades of experience with sanctions against Iran, as well as

tions or maintaining them indefnitely will achieve the desired objectives—

on the nature o sanctions as a oreign policy tool, we oer sever al general obser-

or whether there is instead a point at which the addition o more sanctions

vations about how the United States and its international allies might get the great-

or the inexible application o existing sanctions might backfre or become

est possible advantage rom the sanctions imposed against Iran, while minimizing

counterproductive. Sanctioning states might get the maximum advantage from

potential negative impacts. All o these observations, in one way or another, make

sanctions by recognizing when an optimal degree o pressure has been reached,

the point that the eectiveness o sanctions against Iran will depend not

and beginning to convert a purely conrontational strategy into a strategy that

only on the sanctions themselves, but also on the negotiating strategy

combines pressure with a calibrated series o positive signals, thereby creating

associated with them.

momentum toward negotiations.

•

The objectives of sanctions: The multiple objectives embedded in the

•

Easing or lifting some sanctions: The complex mix of processes and

sanctions regime will complicate eorts to determine whether and/or when sanc-

criteria required to lit the sanctions that are now in place may make it challenging

tions have achieved their desired results. Dierent parties, with dierent agendas,

or an American administration to chart a clear and calibrated response to

can make conicting claims about the eectiveness o sanctions. We believe

progressive changes in Iran’s policies and actions. While the American President

the United States might be better able to gauge and maximize the eec-

generally has a high degree o discretion to reduce sanctions on any country,

tiveness o recent sanctions i the objectives that are most relevant and

including Iran, the act that so many o the U.S. sanctions against Iran have been

pressing today could be disentangled rom other objectives that have

enacted into law limits the President’s discretion. In some cases, easing sanctions

been linked with sanctions. Or, to put this dierently: Sanctions alone are not

would require coordination with other nations and the UN Security Council.

a policy. I resolving the nuclear issue is now the most important objective o the sanctions regime, then sanctions strategies—and the negotiating strategy associ associ-ated with sanctions—–should be assessed in terms of their effectiveness or likely eectiveness in achieving that objective. •

Assumptions about about inuencing the decisions of Iran’s leaders: The

Political realities and the diverse objectives reected in the current sanctions regime also are likely to complicate the progressive easing o economic pressure on Iran. Even i Iran were willing to reach an agreement on the nuclear issues, many sanctions that were imposed or other reasons would likely remain in place. Some members o the United States Congress are committed to maintaining sanctions indefnitely as one

diverse sanctions now in eect against Iran share an underlying assumption about

means, among others, o hastening the demise o the Iranian regime, and it could be

the ability o sanctions to produce changes in the policies o Iranian leadership by

difcult politically or the American president to begin liting sanctions, even though

escalating the economic pressure on Iran’s economy, institutions, private business

doing so may be within his legal authority in some cases. One extreme reading of

community,, and people. But while the pain o recent sanctions may well help bring community

the current sanctions regime is that Iran would need convincingly to reorient its entire

Iran to the negotiating table, it is not clear that these sanctions a lone will result in

foreign policy and many of its domestic policies—and perhaps change its leader -

agreements or changes in Iran ian policies, much less changes in Iran’s leadership.

ship—in order to achieve a complete lifting of U.S. sanctions.

The Iranian government is engaged in its own ongoing calculation calculation o costs and benets, and may conclude that its interests are best served by digging in— especially i the regime believes that sanctions will remain in place no matter what Tehran T ehran does. I Iran were to signal its ts willingness to modiy its ts nuclear program and to cooperate in verifying those modications, Iranian negotiators would expect the United States and its allies, in turn, to oer a plan or easing some o the sanctions. Absent a calibrated, positive response rom the West, Iran’s Iran’s leaders would have little incentive to move orward with negotiations.


So ar, neither the United States nor the UN Security Council has stipulated the precise criteria that Iran must meet to trigger the liting o sanctions, or the sanctions that would be lifted in exchange for Iran’s actions. There is no action-for-action plan that all parties understand. Our analysis suggests that the process o unwinding some o the sanctions will be difcult but not impossible. While we make no specifc recommendations in this paper about a process or sequence or easing sanctions in response to Iranian cooperation, we do underline the value and importance o the United States having a plan or such an eventuality.


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2. Making sanctions work.

Sanctioning states are aced with the question o whether increasing sanc-

Reecting on three decades of experience with sanctions against Iran, as well as

tions or maintaining them indefnitely will achieve the desired objectives—

on the nature o sanctions as a oreign policy tool, we oer sever al general obser-

or whether there is instead a point at which the addition o more sanctions

vations about how the United States and its international allies might get the great-

or the inexible application o existing sanctions might backfre or become

est possible advantage rom the sanctions imposed against Iran, while minimizing

counterproductive. Sanctioning states might get the maximum advantage from

potential negative impacts. All o these observations, in one way or another, make

sanctions by recognizing when an optimal degree o pressure has been reached,

the point that the eectiveness o sanctions against Iran will depend not

and beginning to convert a purely conrontational strategy into a strategy that

only on the sanctions themselves, but also on the negotiating strategy

combines pressure with a calibrated series o positive signals, thereby creating

associated with them.

momentum toward negotiations.

•

The objectives of sanctions: The multiple objectives embedded in the

•

Easing or lifting some sanctions: The complex mix of processes and

sanctions regime will complicate eorts to determine whether and/or when sanc-

criteria required to lit the sanctions that are now in place may make it challenging

tions have achieved their desired results. Dierent parties, with dierent agendas,

or an American administration to chart a clear and calibrated response to

can make conicting claims about the eectiveness o sanctions. We believe

progressive changes in Iran’s policies and actions. While the American President

the United States might be better able to gauge and maximize the eec-

generally has a high degree o discretion to reduce sanctions on any country,

tiveness o recent sanctions i the objectives that are most relevant and

including Iran, the act that so many o the U.S. sanctions against Iran have been

pressing today could be disentangled rom other objectives that have

enacted into law limits the President’s discretion. In some cases, easing sanctions

been linked with sanctions. Or, to put this dierently: Sanctions alone are not

would require coordination with other nations and the UN Security Council.

a policy. I resolving the nuclear issue is now the most important objective o the sanctions regime, then sanctions strategies—and the negotiating strategy associ associ-ated with sanctions—–should be assessed in terms of their effectiveness or likely eectiveness in achieving that objective. •

Assumptions about about inuencing the decisions of Iran’s leaders: The

Political realities and the diverse objectives reected in the current sanctions regime also are likely to complicate the progressive easing o economic pressure on Iran. Even i Iran were willing to reach an agreement on the nuclear issues, many sanctions that were imposed or other reasons would likely remain in place. Some members o the United States Congress are committed to maintaining sanctions indefnitely as one

diverse sanctions now in eect against Iran share an underlying assumption about

means, among others, o hastening the demise o the Iranian regime, and it could be

the ability o sanctions to produce changes in the policies o Iranian leadership by

difcult politically or the American president to begin liting sanctions, even though

escalating the economic pressure on Iran’s economy, institutions, private business

doing so may be within his legal authority in some cases. One extreme reading of

community,, and people. But while the pain o recent sanctions may well help bring community

the current sanctions regime is that Iran would need convincingly to reorient its entire

Iran to the negotiating table, it is not clear that these sanctions a lone will result in

foreign policy and many of its domestic policies—and perhaps change its leader -

agreements or changes in Iran ian policies, much less changes in Iran’s leadership.

ship—in order to achieve a complete lifting of U.S. sanctions.

The Iranian government is engaged in its own ongoing calculation calculation o costs and benets, and may conclude that its interests are best served by digging in— especially i the regime believes that sanctions will remain in place no matter what Tehran T ehran does. I Iran were to signal its ts willingness to modiy its ts nuclear program and to cooperate in verifying those modications, Iranian negotiators would expect the United States and its allies, in turn, to oer a plan or easing some o the sanctions. Absent a calibrated, positive response rom the West, Iran’s Iran’s leaders would have little incentive to move orward with negotiations.

So ar, neither the United States nor the UN Security Council has stipulated the precise criteria that Iran must meet to trigger the liting o sanctions, or the sanctions that would be lifted in exchange for Iran’s actions. There is no action-for-action plan that all parties understand. Our analysis suggests that the process o unwinding some o the sanctions will be difcult but not impossible. While we make no specifc recommendations in this paper about a process or sequence or easing sanctions in response to Iranian cooperation, we do underline the value and importance o the United States having a plan or such an eventuality.



EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

3. Benefts and potential benefts o sanctions.

essential parts is hurting some manuacturing sectors. This year, Iran cut imports

Targeted (or “smart”) sanctions have reduced Iran’s Iran’s ability to acquire material that

o non-essential goods. While Iran’s economy appears to be acing severe problems

could be used or a nuclear weapons program and its ability to modernize its armed

today,, we are cautious about extrapolating longer-term trends from discrete statis today

orces. Recently imposed comprehensive (or “crippling”) sanctions have sent a clear

tics. It is difcult to estimate the extent of the impact of sanctions over time or the

message to Iran’s leadership about the economic cost o continuing to ignore the

ability o Iran to adapt to the new environment. Sanctions also have driven a sub-

demands o the United States, the UN Security Council, and others. Sanctions have

stantial amount o commerce underground and into the black market, which urther

worked to constrain some Iranian activities as well as to damage Iran’s economy

complicates eorts to gauge economic activity within and across Iran’ Iran’s s borders.

and urther isolate Iran rom the international community. The test now is whether the sanctions will ultimately work to change Iranian policies and behavior. Among the benefts and potential benefts o sanctions are the ollowing: •

A basis for coalition building. Sanctions have proved to be a way or many

nations to demonstrate a unifed purpose and the seriousness o their concerns about Iran’s nuclear intentions and support or violent non-state actors such as Hezbollah and Hamas, without going to war. The severity and comprehensiveness o the sanctions regime has also reassured riendly states in the region that the United States understands their security needs. •

Slowing the expansion of Iran’ Iran’s s nuclear program. U.S. government

ofcials and other experts have said that targeted sanctions are slowing the expan sion o Iran’s nuclear program, including the production o centriuges. Some hav e even argued that without sanctions and other pressures, Iran would already have a nuclear weapon. We disagree with this judgment, however, since U.S. intelligence ofcials have stated with a high degree o confdence that the decision to build a nuclear weapon has not yet been taken by Iran’ Iran’s s Supreme Leader. Sanctions are thought to have been largely eective in reducing the importation o dual-purpose materials that would enable Iran to move orward with any plans or the development o missile-delivery systems and other aspects o a nuclear weapons capability. According to recent International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports, however, however, Iran’s Iran’ s capacity to enrich uranium continues to expand, and Iran’ Iran’s s stockpile of low-enriched uranium (enriched to the level o 3.5–5%) has continued to grow. This raises doubts about whether sanctions have had a signifcant eect on an aspect of Iran’s nuclear program—uranium enrichment—that is central to the creation o a nuclear weapon. •

Iran’s s oil Weakening the Iranian economy. Sanctions are cutting into Iran’

revenues and disrupting its trade with neighboring states. Iran’s economy appears to have been signifcantly weakened (corruption and mismanagement are endemic problems as well). Ination and unemployment are high; the inability to purchase


•

Regional military balance increasingly increasingly unfavorable to Iran. Iran. The ban on

heavy weapons sales has limited Iran’s Iran’s ability to modernize its armed orces at a time when Iran’s neighbors have been getting U.S. assistance in upgra ding their militaries. While Iran is now able to manuacture most basic military hardware domestically,, sanctions are preventing Iran rom purchasing or developing hi-tech domestically military equipment. We assume, however, that in the event o conict, Iran’s retaliatory and even its oensive military strategies would rely primarily on asymmetrical warare rather than conventional orces. •

Elite distress and public unhappiness over economic conditions. Both

elites and the general public in Iran are eeling the eects o the economic deterioration produced by the sanctions regime. President Ahmadinejad has been criticized within elite circles or his mismanagement o the economy, but it is difcult to judge whether debate has also been stimulated over Iran’s oreign policy, including whether Iran should make some concessions on its nuclear program in order to achieve sanctions relie. Certainly, the threat o stier sanctions does not appear to have stopped Iran rom taking steps in its nuclear program that alarm the international community. (The Supreme Leader, who would make the fnal decision about whether Iran should pursue a nuclear weapon, is thought to believe that the nuclear issue is just a pretext or regime change, and that sanctions will remain in place no matter what Tehran does.). Public discontent with economic conditions and domestic policies is growing. But here, too, it is difcult to judge whether public unhappiness will lead to pressure for a change in foreign policy or national leadership—or to public fearfulness, passivity,, and accommodation under a more harshly repressive state. passivity •

Enhanced sanctions might change Iran’ Iran’s s nuclear negotiating strategy.

As international sanctions have increased in severity and comprehensiveness, comprehensiveness, the United States has seen some indications o a greater willingness on the part o Iranian leadership to negotiate seriously. So ar, though, little actual progress has been made toward achieving agreement on any o the outstanding issues. It seems doubtul to us that the current seve re sanctions regime will signifcantly aect the decision making of Iran’s leaders—any more than past sanctions did—barring some weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran 13

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

3. Benefts and potential benefts o sanctions.

essential parts is hurting some manuacturing sectors. This year, Iran cut imports

Targeted (or “smart”) sanctions have reduced Iran’s Iran’s ability to acquire material that

o non-essential goods. While Iran’s economy appears to be acing severe problems

could be used or a nuclear weapons program and its ability to modernize its armed

today,, we are cautious about extrapolating longer-term trends from discrete statis today

orces. Recently imposed comprehensive (or “crippling”) sanctions have sent a clear

tics. It is difcult to estimate the extent of the impact of sanctions over time or the

message to Iran’s leadership about the economic cost o continuing to ignore the

ability o Iran to adapt to the new environment. Sanctions also have driven a sub-

demands o the United States, the UN Security Council, and others. Sanctions have

stantial amount o commerce underground and into the black market, which urther

worked to constrain some Iranian activities as well as to damage Iran’s economy

complicates eorts to gauge economic activity within and across Iran’ Iran’s s borders.

and urther isolate Iran rom the international community. The test now is whether the sanctions will ultimately work to change Iranian policies and behavior. Among the benefts and potential benefts o sanctions are the ollowing: •

A basis for coalition building. Sanctions have proved to be a way or many

nations to demonstrate a unifed purpose and the seriousness o their concerns about Iran’s nuclear intentions and support or violent non-state actors such as Hezbollah and Hamas, without going to war. The severity and comprehensiveness o the sanctions regime has also reassured riendly states in the region that the United States understands their security needs. •

Slowing the expansion of Iran’ Iran’s s nuclear program. U.S. government

ofcials and other experts have said that targeted sanctions are slowing the expan sion o Iran’s nuclear program, including the production o centriuges. Some hav e even argued that without sanctions and other pressures, Iran would already have a nuclear weapon. We disagree with this judgment, however, since U.S. intelligence ofcials have stated with a high degree o confdence that the decision to build a nuclear weapon has not yet been taken by Iran’ Iran’s s Supreme Leader. Sanctions are thought to have been largely eective in reducing the importation o dual-purpose materials that would enable Iran to move orward with any plans or the development o missile-delivery systems and other aspects o a nuclear weapons capability. According to recent International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports, however, however, Iran’s Iran’ s capacity to enrich uranium continues to expand, and Iran’ Iran’s s stockpile of low-enriched uranium (enriched to the level o 3.5–5%) has continued to grow. This raises doubts about whether sanctions have had a signifcant eect on an aspect of Iran’s nuclear program—uranium enrichment—that is central to the creation o a nuclear weapon. •

Iran’s s oil Weakening the Iranian economy. Sanctions are cutting into Iran’

revenues and disrupting its trade with neighboring states. Iran’s economy appears to have been signifcantly weakened (corruption and mismanagement are endemic problems as well). Ination and unemployment are high; the inability to purchase

•

Regional military balance increasingly increasingly unfavorable to Iran. Iran. The ban on

heavy weapons sales has limited Iran’s Iran’s ability to modernize its armed orces at a time when Iran’s neighbors have been getting U.S. assistance in upgra ding their militaries. While Iran is now able to manuacture most basic military hardware domestically,, sanctions are preventing Iran rom purchasing or developing hi-tech domestically military equipment. We assume, however, that in the event o conict, Iran’s retaliatory and even its oensive military strategies would rely primarily on asymmetrical warare rather than conventional orces. •

Elite distress and public unhappiness over economic conditions. Both

elites and the general public in Iran are eeling the eects o the economic deterioration produced by the sanctions regime. President Ahmadinejad has been criticized within elite circles or his mismanagement o the economy, but it is difcult to judge whether debate has also been stimulated over Iran’s oreign policy, including whether Iran should make some concessions on its nuclear program in order to achieve sanctions relie. Certainly, the threat o stier sanctions does not appear to have stopped Iran rom taking steps in its nuclear program that alarm the international community. (The Supreme Leader, who would make the fnal decision about whether Iran should pursue a nuclear weapon, is thought to believe that the nuclear issue is just a pretext or regime change, and that sanctions will remain in place no matter what Tehran does.). Public discontent with economic conditions and domestic policies is growing. But here, too, it is difcult to judge whether public unhappiness will lead to pressure for a change in foreign policy or national leadership—or to public fearfulness, passivity,, and accommodation under a more harshly repressive state. passivity •

Enhanced sanctions might change Iran’ Iran’s s nuclear negotiating strategy.

As international sanctions have increased in severity and comprehensiveness, comprehensiveness, the United States has seen some indications o a greater willingness on the part o Iranian leadership to negotiate seriously. So ar, though, little actual progress has been made toward achieving agreement on any o the outstanding issues. It seems doubtul to us that the current seve re sanctions regime will signifcantly aect the decision making of Iran’s leaders—any more than past sanctions did—barring some weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran 13


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

willingness on the part o sanctioning countries to combine continued pressure with

•

positive signals and decisions on matters o great interest to Iran.

hensive sanctions take their toll on the quality o lie in Iran, the United States risks

Long-term alienation between the United States and Iran. As compre-

losing the admiration of many of Iran’ Iran’s s people—including the younger generation. 4. Costs and potential costs o sanctions. The decision on to make make international international sanctions sanctions a centerpiece centerpiece o its Iran strategy has has had some geopolitical costs or the United States, and ault lines are developing in

Resentment over the hardships caused by sanctions could reduce the prospects or improving or normalizing U.S. and Iranian relations over time, even i Iranian leadership were to change.

the alliance, potentially giving Iran some options or osetting the impacts o the The international sanctions, combined with Increased potential for conict. conict. The

sanctions. Sanctions designed to weaken Iran’s economy and put pressure on Iranian

•

leadership are having some eect, but they also are having some unintended negative

threats rom Israel and a U.S. military buildup in the Persian Gul, may have height-

consequences. And while the tightening sanctions seem to be having a modest eect

ened Iran’s readiness or asymmetrical retaliation against U.S. and allied interests.

on Iran’s nuclear negotiating strategy, they also risk undermining other long-term

In addition, according to the U.S. Deense Department, Iran has responded to the

U.S. policy objectives vis-à-vis Iran and or regional peace and stability.

limits on its arms purchases by expanding its own arms industry—developing ballistic and cruise missiles, building more small boats to use in the Per sian Gul,

Among the costs and potential costs o sanctions are the ollowing: •

Disputes with allies and other countries. Dierences with Russia, China,

and other countries—including India, Turkey, and South Korea—have widened as more comprehensive sanctions take eect that aim to pressure Iran’s leaders by harming the civilian economy. Sanctions-related tensions among the United States and Russia and China have complicated U.S. eorts to achieve Security Council unity on international action in Libya and Syria. •

Increased corruption and control control of the economy by unaccountable unaccountable

and acquiring additional ships and submarines. The sanctions, and especially the partial oil embargo against Iran, have also caused Iran’s leaders to threaten action to close the strategic Strait o Hormuz. •

Potential humanitarian effects. Sanctions have the potential to produce

human suering that could be morally repugnant and that could undermine international support or sanctions, hurt the United States’ global image and credibility, and contribute to urther alienation o the Iranian public. The comprehensive sanctions introduced in 2010 have lowered the standard o living and wellbeing o Iran’s

actions. Iranians who depend on cash-strapped government agencies or public

population, including by reducing the availability o ood, medicine, and other basic

services and social-welare benefts may be orced to turn to inuential amily and

human requirements. Some hardships are an inevitable result o sanctions cutting

actional connections who are in positions o power. This is likely to enhance the

deeply into the economy or long periods o time. In addition, while the United

inuence o conservative and repressive actions (such as the Iranian Revolutionary

States Treasury Department permits the export of humanitarian goods to Iran, U.S.

Guard Corps, or IRGC) that have control over fnancial resources. IRGC-controlled

frms are not always willing to undertake the licensing process that is required, and

frms have acquired large stakes in key economic sectors, including telecommuni-

oreign frms and banks may hold back rom any transactions with Iran or ear o

cations, banking, transportation, and energy—where sanctions have forced global

U.S. penalties and volatility in the value o Iran’s currency. currency. Inadvertently, a widely

companies to abandon some projects to IRGC-linked companies. The longer

accepted principle o sanctions⎯that the availability o ood and medicines should

sanctions persist, the more economic transactions will be controlled by the Iranian

not be affected⎯is at risk of being violated. Meanwhile, as the number and complex -

leadership through black-market channels.

ity o sanctions on Iran have increased, humanitarian relie groups complain that it is increasingly difcult for U.S. citizens to donate to relief efforts in Iran (for example,

•

Empowering anti-reform voices and disempowering civil society.

ater the August 2012 earthquakes in Northern Iran).

Comprehensive international sanctions against Iran may be enhancing the political power o repressive leaders and ultra-conservative actions by enabling them to

•

portray sanctions as U.S.-led aggression, even “economic warare,” and by causing

allies, and the region. The sanctions now in place are creating new international

the regime to repress opposition elements more har shly than ever. To To the extent

patterns o trade that are potentially detrimental to the U.S., European, and regional

that ultra-conservatives increase their control over the Iranian system, room or

economies. The eects o the most crippling sanctions are not yet visible in the

political dissent and civil society will continue to shrink.

available economic data, and a combination of factors—including exemptions of


Detrimental economic effects on the United States, States, its its European


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

willingness on the part o sanctioning countries to combine continued pressure with

•

positive signals and decisions on matters o great interest to Iran.

hensive sanctions take their toll on the quality o lie in Iran, the United States risks

Long-term alienation between the United States and Iran. As compre-

losing the admiration of many of Iran’ Iran’s s people—including the younger generation. 4. Costs and potential costs o sanctions. The decision on to make make international international sanctions sanctions a centerpiece centerpiece o its Iran strategy has has had some geopolitical costs or the United States, and ault lines are developing in

Resentment over the hardships caused by sanctions could reduce the prospects or improving or normalizing U.S. and Iranian relations over time, even i Iranian leadership were to change.

the alliance, potentially giving Iran some options or osetting the impacts o the The international sanctions, combined with Increased potential for conict. conict. The

sanctions. Sanctions designed to weaken Iran’s economy and put pressure on Iranian

•

leadership are having some eect, but they also are having some unintended negative

threats rom Israel and a U.S. military buildup in the Persian Gul, may have height-

consequences. And while the tightening sanctions seem to be having a modest eect

ened Iran’s readiness or asymmetrical retaliation against U.S. and allied interests.

on Iran’s nuclear negotiating strategy, they also risk undermining other long-term

In addition, according to the U.S. Deense Department, Iran has responded to the

U.S. policy objectives vis-à-vis Iran and or regional peace and stability.

limits on its arms purchases by expanding its own arms industry—developing ballistic and cruise missiles, building more small boats to use in the Per sian Gul,

Among the costs and potential costs o sanctions are the ollowing: •

Disputes with allies and other countries. Dierences with Russia, China,

and other countries—including India, Turkey, and South Korea—have widened as more comprehensive sanctions take eect that aim to pressure Iran’s leaders by harming the civilian economy. Sanctions-related tensions among the United States and Russia and China have complicated U.S. eorts to achieve Security Council unity on international action in Libya and Syria. •

Increased corruption and control control of the economy by unaccountable unaccountable

and acquiring additional ships and submarines. The sanctions, and especially the partial oil embargo against Iran, have also caused Iran’s leaders to threaten action to close the strategic Strait o Hormuz. •

Potential humanitarian effects. Sanctions have the potential to produce

human suering that could be morally repugnant and that could undermine international support or sanctions, hurt the United States’ global image and credibility, and contribute to urther alienation o the Iranian public. The comprehensive sanctions introduced in 2010 have lowered the standard o living and wellbeing o Iran’s

actions. Iranians who depend on cash-strapped government agencies or public

population, including by reducing the availability o ood, medicine, and other basic

services and social-welare benefts may be orced to turn to inuential amily and

human requirements. Some hardships are an inevitable result o sanctions cutting

actional connections who are in positions o power. This is likely to enhance the

deeply into the economy or long periods o time. In addition, while the United

inuence o conservative and repressive actions (such as the Iranian Revolutionary

States Treasury Department permits the export of humanitarian goods to Iran, U.S.

Guard Corps, or IRGC) that have control over fnancial resources. IRGC-controlled

frms are not always willing to undertake the licensing process that is required, and

frms have acquired large stakes in key economic sectors, including telecommuni-

oreign frms and banks may hold back rom any transactions with Iran or ear o

cations, banking, transportation, and energy—where sanctions have forced global

U.S. penalties and volatility in the value o Iran’s currency. currency. Inadvertently, a widely

companies to abandon some projects to IRGC-linked companies. The longer

accepted principle o sanctions⎯that the availability o ood and medicines should

sanctions persist, the more economic transactions will be controlled by the Iranian

not be affected⎯is at risk of being violated. Meanwhile, as the number and complex -

leadership through black-market channels.

ity o sanctions on Iran have increased, humanitarian relie groups complain that it is increasingly difcult for U.S. citizens to donate to relief efforts in Iran (for example,

•

Empowering anti-reform voices and disempowering civil society.

ater the August 2012 earthquakes in Northern Iran).

Comprehensive international sanctions against Iran may be enhancing the political power o repressive leaders and ultra-conservative actions by enabling them to

•

portray sanctions as U.S.-led aggression, even “economic warare,” and by causing

allies, and the region. The sanctions now in place are creating new international

the regime to repress opposition elements more har shly than ever. To To the extent

patterns o trade that are potentially detrimental to the U.S., European, and regional

that ultra-conservatives increase their control over the Iranian system, room or

economies. The eects o the most crippling sanctions are not yet visible in the

political dissent and civil society will continue to shrink.

available economic data, and a combination of factors—including exemptions of


Detrimental economic effects on the United States, States, its its European


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

various kinds, the expansion of black market trading, and non-compliance by some parties—makes it difcult to calculate precisely the economic impacts of sanctions on the United States, the European Union (EU) countries, and countries in the Middle East. But one obvious “opportunity cost” o sanctions is that they exclude U.S. and allied rms from potentially lucrative business opportunities in Iran. Goods rom China and India, two o the countries that have sought to avoid sanctions on Iranian banks by bartering or oil, are taking hold in the Iranian market, and it may prove difcult to realign trade patterns to include the EU countries (or which Iran was a airly signifcant market in the past). The Gul Cooperation Council countries, which had enjoyed a blossoming o trade activity with Iran beore tightened sanctions took eect, ear the loss o that income. Meanwhile, the rapid expansion of unofcial, black-market trade between Iran and Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, and Turkey is distorting and undermining the economies o those states and the region.

This Executive Summary cannot do justice to the extended debates and months o study that that have gone gone into preparin preparing g the paper paper that ollows, ollows, or to the

•

Detrimental effects on on the global global energy supply and the the stability stability of the the

global energy market. In the past, a rise in tensions between Iran and the international community has oten produced a jump in world oil prices. While that v olatility

rigor o the the research research and analysis analysis that buttress buttress its ndings. Our aim throughthroughout this eort has been to present the best possible assessments—based on

may be reduced somewhat now—due to the relatively soft market for oil and the

a large body body o expert expert analysis analysis and and opinion—o on—o a key strategy strategy or addressing ng

calculation that Iran’s share of the global oil market is in decline—world oil prices

one o the most critical security challenges acing the United States. We hope

remain sensitive to such tensions. Even i the EU oil embargo were to be terminated as part o a nuclear deal, Iran’s oil felds will have deteriorated and Iran’s presence in the global oil market will diminish, at least over the mid-term. And sanctions hav e

the acts and proessional judgments we have assembled will stimulate inormed debate and and refection refection among among citizens citizens and leaders eaders alike. alike.

aected Iran’s Iran’s ability to supply liquefed na tural gas to the global mark et, by preventing Iran from using any patents or accessing international expertise to develop a capacity to export liqueed natural gas.



EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

various kinds, the expansion of black market trading, and non-compliance by some parties—makes it difcult to calculate precisely the economic impacts of sanctions on the United States, the European Union (EU) countries, and countries in the Middle East. But one obvious “opportunity cost” o sanctions is that they exclude U.S. and allied rms from potentially lucrative business opportunities in Iran. Goods rom China and India, two o the countries that have sought to avoid sanctions on Iranian banks by bartering or oil, are taking hold in the Iranian market, and it may prove difcult to realign trade patterns to include the EU countries (or which Iran was a airly signifcant market in the past). The Gul Cooperation Council countries, which had enjoyed a blossoming o trade activity with Iran beore tightened sanctions took eect, ear the loss o that income. Meanwhile, the rapid expansion of unofcial, black-market trade between Iran and Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, and Turkey is distorting and undermining the economies o those states and the region.

This Executive Summary cannot do justice to the extended debates and months o study that that have gone gone into preparin preparing g the paper paper that ollows, ollows, or to the

•

Detrimental effects on on the global global energy supply and the the stability stability of the the

global energy market. In the past, a rise in tensions between Iran and the international community has oten produced a jump in world oil prices. While that v olatility

rigor o the the research research and analysis analysis that buttress buttress its ndings. Our aim throughthroughout this eort has been to present the best possible assessments—based on

may be reduced somewhat now—due to the relatively soft market for oil and the

a large body body o expert expert analysis analysis and and opinion—o on—o a key strategy strategy or addressing ng

calculation that Iran’s share of the global oil market is in decline—world oil prices

one o the most critical security challenges acing the United States. We hope

remain sensitive to such tensions. Even i the EU oil embargo were to be terminated as part o a nuclear deal, Iran’s oil felds will have deteriorated and Iran’s presence in the global oil market will diminish, at least over the mid-term. And sanctions hav e

the acts and proessional judgments we have assembled will stimulate inormed debate and and refection refection among among citizens citizens and leaders eaders alike. alike.

aected Iran’s Iran’s ability to supply liquefed na tural gas to the global mark et, by preventing Iran from using any patents or accessing international expertise to develop a capacity to export liqueed natural gas.



I.

Introduction T U S    u v  u   u  v     p    p,     u        (    )   p u v pv u  v. T     I   vv v       pu I  p     p.

F  u ;  v   u , u ,   “   u p,         v. John Adams

”

S  I v  pv      p k  :   p   v I’ u p;      I    ;      U S’ u u   p  u p         p  vp u p;   u u    I’ upp  z u  Hz  H;      I    p  v  u    z; v (u)         I. Bu v  pup  pup    pu   ,    p     v   k  v,   p          pu v        v     U.S. . A p u  p  p  v p jv u  u      ,    p    v v   u    pu  pk . T u     pp   xp    u   p u  v  a careul assessment o the costs as well as the benefts o sanctions will enhance the quality o the discussion about the sanctions regime and overall U.S. policy toward Iran.

T    v u,     p p . I,    u  pu    qu  v p  u . W p  u     u  p      u. W z    I  p    U.S. p pp   vv     p (u  u)   upp p . I  pvu pu pp  T I Pj  W  B  C  M A A I,  z  


I.

Introduction T U S    u v  u   u  v     p    p,     u        (    )   p u v pv u  v. T     I   vv v       pu I  p     p.

F  u ;  v   u , u ,   “   u p,         v. John Adams

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S  I v  pv      p k  :   p   v I’ u p;      I    ;      U S’ u u   p  u p         p  vp u p;   u u    I’ upp  z u  Hz  H;      I    p  v  u    z; v (u)         I. Bu v  pup  pup    pu   ,    p     v   k  v,   p          pu v        v     U.S. . A p u  p  p  v p jv u  u      ,    p    v v   u    pu  pk . T u     pp   xp    u   p u  v  a careul assessment o the costs as well as the benefts o sanctions will enhance the quality o the discussion about the sanctions regime and overall U.S. policy toward Iran.

T    v u,     p p . I,    u  pu    qu  v p  u . W p  u     u  p      u. W z    I  p    U.S. p pp   vv     p (u  u)   upp p . I  pvu pu pp  T I Pj  W  B  C  M A A I,  z  


INTRODUCTION

INTRODUCTION

   u   I. I uqu pp,   u  puu  

p. T    x         

p u u .

. I k     pv   v p  -

Lk u p   u  ,  p     v  u     p pk    . T   v u,     p p . Bu   pp    u . T pp  u   u  vu          k. T pp   u   u      U S   . T   p p    v pp u k. Ovu,  k    p   p   ,     x  p    pp    pj  p   uu. L vu, pp,     p  u       k. Given the United States’ deep engagement and international leadership on sanctions as a strategy or pressuring Iran, we believe it is appropriate here not only to lay out our assessment o the benefts and costs o this strategy, but also to

,    u   u    v  k   (  v  u  ,   v u  v    ). • W u    I  p     

 U.S. p   vv     p (u  u)   upp p . T p   U.S. p      pp. W u   u      pp,  “W  B  C  M A  I”;  uqu pp,   u     p u. I   x    U.S. p p,  v  ppu           . Bu v  u    p  p  I,   pu    vu  pv  , -    j  p v   U S.

oer reections that might help the United States and its allies get maximum

• W       u   u      

advantage rom the sanctions placed on Iran, while minimizing the potential

 p ,  k       . N   p 

or negative consequences. A,  pp u  p  

     v p   U.S.       

k  k,  p   u u    .

p     I. Ou u    U.S.  U.S.-   -

T pp    Exuv Su   p  v p: I.

Iu

II.

Bku   S

  I. Ou    pv     u  u   p  u p    I, pu v I’ u p. • W     u   ju  u v   x

III. R  Mk S Wk

 v   p  U.S.  U.S.-    I.

IV.. B   S IV

W v   v u    k        pp. Ou 

V.

p ju,  ,     u.

C   S

A Primer on on Sanctions Sanctions Agains Againstt Iran, Iran, Includi Including ng Potentia Potentiall Future Future Sanctions Sanctions and Provisions Provisions or Liing the Sanctions,    p  u   uz   1979.

• W  u        vu     

        I. S  U S     uu p  —u     k—

Shared Understandings: T u   pp u   k  

   v     u,   u    

u  pv u v up    ppv.

   pu  u. I ,  U.S.-  

• W z  I’ v—pu     u p—p

px  u   U.S.   u,      u  I  p     M E. T   u   


   vv   -    u pp. N,  v     p    xp    I  v      k u uu p.


INTRODUCTION

INTRODUCTION

   u   I. I uqu pp,   u  puu  

p. T    x         

p u u .

. I k     pv   v p  -

Lk u p   u  ,  p     v  u     p pk    . T   v u,     p p . Bu   pp    u . T pp  u   u  vu          k. T pp   u   u      U S   . T   p p    v pp u k. Ovu,  k    p   p   ,     x  p    pp    pj  p   uu. L vu, pp,     p  u       k. Given the United States’ deep engagement and international leadership on sanctions as a strategy or pressuring Iran, we believe it is appropriate here not only to lay out our assessment o the benefts and costs o this strategy, but also to

,    u   u    v  k   (  v  u  ,   v u  v    ). • W u    I  p     

 U.S. p   vv     p (u  u)   upp p . T p   U.S. p      pp. W u   u      pp,  “W  B  C  M A  I”;  uqu pp,   u     p u. I   x    U.S. p p,  v  ppu           . Bu v  u    p  p  I,   pu    vu  pv  , -    j  p v   U S.

oer reections that might help the United States and its allies get maximum

• W       u   u      

advantage rom the sanctions placed on Iran, while minimizing the potential

 p ,  k       . N   p 

or negative consequences. A,  pp u  p  

     v p   U.S.       

k  k,  p   u u    .

p     I. Ou u    U.S.  U.S.-   -

T pp    Exuv Su   p  v p: I.

Iu

II.

Bku   S

  I. Ou    pv     u  u   p  u p    I, pu v I’ u p. • W     u   ju  u v   x

III. R  Mk S Wk

 v   p  U.S.  U.S.-    I.

IV.. B   S IV

W v   v u    k        pp. Ou 

V.

p ju,  ,     u.

C   S

A Primer on on Sanctions Sanctions Agains Againstt Iran, Iran, Includi Including ng Potentia Potentiall Future Future Sanctions Sanctions and Provisions Provisions or Liing the Sanctions,    p  u   uz 

• W  u        vu     

        I. S  U S    

 1979.

uu p  —u     k— Shared Understandings: T u   pp u   k  

   v     u,   u    

u  pv u v up    ppv.

   pu  u. I ,  U.S.-  

• W z  I’ v—pu     u p—p

px  u   U.S.   u,      u  I  p     M E. T   u   

   vv   -    u pp. N,  v     p    xp    I  v      k u uu p.



II.

Background on U.S. and U.S.-Led International Sanctions Against Iran U.S.   I p       v uqu    u   U.S.–I ,    v    u  U.S. v  u I. 1 Ov ,   v  p   jv. O u  pp k  k     up   ,  pv   x

N   N    p  u p  xu     “ .

”

Dean Acheson

         x  p uu   I.

1. FOUR PHASES OF SANCTIONS W  u j p   U.S.   I  1979,      p . T u p  uz . 1.1 The frst phase, dating rom 1979 through 1995,   u 

 p   U S. I p  p      1979,     1984,  I  p   U.S.   “ p  ” u  up I vv   1983  k  U.S. M k  L. A   pu  p u  - I–Iq ,  u I’ I’  p  pu  u  I u    up   . U.S.       -1990  p  I’ upp  H’ p  u   I, —v   u I’ I’ u — p  I     Ru  u  v u p   Bu. Ov,      u I’ upp   px up;  I I’ ’ v v  p;    I’   vp u p. T   uu  u     v  A P  p    p         ( xp,  v I    p   ,         ). 1.2 The second phase, rom 1996 to 2006,    u  vu—

u    u —up  I pu   u  up. L p  1996 ( I–L S A,  ILSA,      I S A,  ISA) pv     p  k j v  I’  . Au     weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran 23

II.

Background on U.S. and U.S.-Led International Sanctions Against Iran U.S.   I p       v uqu    u   U.S.–I ,    v    u  U.S. v  u I. 1 Ov ,   v  p   jv. O u  pp k  k     up   ,  pv   x

N   N    p  u p  xu     “ .

”

Dean Acheson

         x  p uu   I.

1. FOUR PHASES OF SANCTIONS W  u j p   U.S.   I  1979,      p . T u p  uz . 1.1 The frst phase, dating rom 1979 through 1995,   u 

 p   U S. I p  p      1979,     1984,  I  p   U.S.   “ p  ” u  up I vv   1983  k  U.S. M k  L. A   pu  p u  - I–Iq ,  u I’ I’  p  pu  u  I u    up   . U.S.       -1990  p  I’ upp  H’ p  u   I, —v   u I’ I’ u — p  I     Ru  u  v u p   Bu. Ov,      u I’ upp   px up;  I I’ ’ v v  p;    I’   vp u p. T   uu  u     v  A P  p    p         ( xp,  v I    p   ,         ). 1.2 The second phase, rom 1996 to 2006,    u  vu—

u    u —up  I pu   u  up. L p  1996 ( I–L S A,  ILSA,      I S A,  ISA) pv     p  k j v  I’  . Au     weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran 23

II . BACKGROUND ON U.S. AND U.S.-LED INTERNATIONAL


SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN


   pu k U.S.   j  U S  p 

’ p   G Mv p    Ju 12, 2009,

 I,     puu  “ u”  I p  

     S ( I     A v).

p. A  p         

T  z  U.S.-   I  up  

k  Sp 11, 2 001,     pv  U.S. z  u-

u  u,  p      I C Bk. Rvk

 u    (u  v  I)  v 

      u qu  p   UNSC u,

ju  pv upp upp   z. z. T P   

   U.S. C,   p  v   Exuv O.

  pp   .

F        , u p uu 

1.3 In the third phase, rom 2006 through 2010,  U S  u

 pv    , p       pp, A pp, A Primer

upp     u,   p u  C  Ru,

on Sanctions Against Iran.

 p  U N Su Cu (UNSC) u (1737, 1747,  1803)  p    I. T u    pu I  up     uu;    “A P”   Nu N-P   1966,  u p xp p  I’ u    I A E A (IAEA);         “EU3” (B, F,  G)   uu  I’ u p. T u  p      I  qup    u  u   vp   u   p. T        p   UNSC u  u   up  pvu u. 1.4 The ourth phase o sanctions began in 2010   u u 

p. T    pv   p ,    v    u v   I’ v . T    px, vv v   p  v jv,    p I    u    u  u,  p v   I’ I’ . S     v  upp     U.S. C,  U.S. ,   U N Su Cu (u B, F, G, Ru,  C). T     UNSC u 1929, p  2010,   p  k  I’  u, pv pp u   ,  u    I k. T U.S. C k UNSC u 1929  p  u    Cpv I S AuAu  Dv A (CISADA),    pv        I  k  v I k. A   pu  p  Exuv O    U.S. C,     I 24 weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran






   pu k U.S.   j  U S  p 

’ p   G Mv p    Ju 12, 2009,

 I,     puu  “ u”  I p  

     S ( I     A v).

p. A  p         

T  z  U.S.-   I  up  

k  Sp 11, 2 001,     pv  U.S. z  u-

u  u,  p      I C Bk. Rvk

 u    (u  v  I)  v 

      u qu  p   UNSC u,

ju  pv upp upp   z. z. T P   

   U.S. C,   p  v   Exuv O.

  pp   .

F        , u p uu 

1.3 In the third phase, rom 2006 through 2010,  U S  u

 pv    , p       pp, A pp, A Primer

upp     u,   p u  C  Ru,

on Sanctions Against Iran.

 p  U N Su Cu (UNSC) u (1737, 1747,  1803)  p    I. T u    pu I  up     uu;    “A P”   Nu N-P   1966,  u p xp p  I’ u    I A E A (IAEA);         “EU3” (B, F,  G)   uu  I’ u p. T u  p      I  qup    u  u   vp   u   p. T        p   UNSC u  u   up  pvu u. 1.4 The ourth phase o sanctions began in 2010   u u 

p. T    pv   p ,    v    u v   I’ v . T    px, vv v   p  v jv,    p I    u    u  u,  p v   I’ I’ . S     v  upp     U.S. C,  U.S. ,   U N Su Cu (u B, F, G, Ru,  C). T     UNSC u 1929, p  2010,   p  k  I’  u, pv pp u   ,  u    I k. T U.S. C k UNSC u 1929  p  u    Cpv I S AuAu  Dv A (CISADA),    pv        I  k  v I k. A   pu  p  Exuv O    U.S. C,     I weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran 25


III.

Reections on Making Sanctions Work

T U S     p       pu I    p  . T   I v  u   v  x p  ;  j u upp, u    I’ ;   v  p   v -p . A u,     I   p     

Lp             u    u “     .

”

Dwight D. Eisenhower

   pu  p  u    v  v. R     xp    I,    u      p ,       v u   U S         p  v    p  I,  z p v p. A   v,     , k  p   v    I  p       v, u        . A  v,      u  uqu p  T I Pj.

1. THE OBJECTIVES OF SANCTIONS Bu    I v vv v   , v   k  W   u p  px    . A u     v     p        pp,          I    pu    p,  v       k. T v  p   u  v , v  u     . T    , u,  p v. A ,         v jv, u: • Achieving a negotiated agreement on Iran’s Iran’s nuclear program  u

k I  vp u p  pv        u . • Restricting Iran’s Iran’s ability to acquire parts and materials needed or its nuclear program,       . • Ensuring that Iran discontinues unding and support or Hezbollah and Hamas,2     -  (  ,   pp

I’’ upp   A   S). I weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran 27

III.

Reections on Making Sanctions Work

T U S     p       pu I    p  . T   I v  u   v  x p  ;  j u upp, u    I’ ;   v  p   v -p . A u,     I   p     

Lp             u    u “     .

”

Dwight D. Eisenhower

   pu  p  u    v  v. R     xp    I,    u      p ,       v u   U S         p  v    p  I,  z p v p. A   v,     , k  p   v    I  p       v, u        . A  v,      u  uqu p  T I Pj.

1. THE OBJECTIVES OF SANCTIONS Bu    I v vv v   , v   k  W   u p  px    . A u     v     p        pp,          I    pu    p,  v       k. T v  p   u  v , v  u     . T    , u,  p v. A ,         v jv, u: • Achieving a negotiated agreement on Iran’s Iran’s nuclear program  u

k I  vp u p  pv        u . • Restricting Iran’s Iran’s ability to acquire parts and materials needed or its nuclear program,       . • Ensuring that Iran discontinues unding and support or Hezbollah and Hamas,2     -  (  ,   pp

I’’ upp   A   S). I weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran 27

III. REFLECTIONS ON MAKING SANCTIONS WORK


• Requiring Iran to respect the human rights  p  v  

   pu  I I’ ’ , , u, pv u -

 I pp.

u,,  pp. A   p,  I v—  pu— u

• Limiting Iran’s Iran’s military capabilities and its ability to exert inuence in the

v      u     ,  

3

region. T u  I’ vp     u  

  vp   v  p. F   W, W,           jv  producing a change in Iran’s government (regime change or a undamental change in the Iranian government’s policies and orientation),

  v       pu  I I’’ p. W  jv   v   U.S. Dp  S,    uu U.S.- , xp U.S. upp  pp up,   v p  I u  p  I’ I’     puu   .4 I         u  k  “ p,”   U.S.  u      p        u     u I p   p. S xp p u, v,  v         I p,   u v u k k   p  k u, u  u   pp  I p    . 5 T up jv       p U.S. U.S. pk’     /   v “u”  pu   u. D p ,   ,  k   u  v   . We believe the United States might be better able to gauge and

p   v  I u  ,           p     . T     k   u,  v,   U S    u  uz   up u    u    I’ . W    p         u  p   u p jv—u  v I    k   pv u   u u—     u   v  p jv, k I’ pu      U.S.       I Rpu  I. A   S IV   pp,  pv     2010 v u  u   I’      pu  I’ . Bu   p       p  I    ,          u      I p, u     I’ I’ p. I I         u p   p  v  ,  xp, xp, I   u xp  U S   ,  u,    p      . A  , pv p    W, I’  u v  v  v   . Ix p,       vu  v      I p, u  u u u. B -

maximize the eectiveness o recent sanctions i the objectives that are

 u   u jv, u  pu   U.S.   

most relevant and pressing today could be disentangled rom other

,  U S    u v u  p  

objectives that have been linked with sanctions. O,  pu  :

S     p. I v  u u     p jv    ,   —      —u       v  k v  v  jv.6

u  v - jv. 7 I  ,  I v       u    ,   u       v   . S     pu  I’ I’  u  up u  p   pp   I ,  u v p   I ppu. T   u  

2. ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT INFLUENCING THE DECISIONS DECISIONS OF IRAN’S LEADERS T v  p     I   u up u      pu    p  I p  28 weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran

I  Iq,   1980,  v   I p’     u, v   . T uu     u         u p . Sanctioning states are aced with the question o weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran 29



• Requiring Iran to respect the human rights  p  v  

   pu  I I’ ’ , , u, pv u -

 I pp.3

u,,  pp. A   p,  I v—  pu— u

• Limiting Iran’s Iran’s military capabilities and its ability to exert inuence in the

v      u     ,  

region. T u  I’ vp     u  

  vp   v  p. F   W, W,           jv  producing a change in Iran’s government (regime change or a undamental change in the Iranian government’s policies and orientation),

  v       pu  I I’’ p. W  jv   v   U.S. Dp  S,    uu U.S.- , xp U.S. upp  pp up,   v p  I u  p  I’ I’     puu   .4 I         u  k  “ p,”   U.S.  u      p        u     u I p   p. S xp p u, v,  v         I p,   u v u k k   p  k u, u  u   pp  I p    . 5 T up jv       p U.S. U.S. pk’     /   v “u”  pu   u. D p ,   ,  k   u  v   . We believe the United States might be better able to gauge and

p   v  I u  ,           p     . T     k   u,  v,   U S    u  uz   up u    u    I’ . W    p         u  p   u p jv—u  v I    k   pv u   u u—     u   v  p jv, k I’ pu      U.S.       I Rpu  I. A   S IV   pp,  pv     2010 v u  u   I’      pu  I’ . Bu   p       p  I    ,          u      I p, u     I’ I’ p. I I         u p   p  v  ,  xp, xp, I   u xp  U S   ,  u,    p      . A  , pv p    W, I’  u v  v  v   . Ix p,       vu  v      I p, u  u u u. B -

maximize the eectiveness o recent sanctions i the objectives that are

 u   u jv, u  pu   U.S.   

most relevant and pressing today could be disentangled rom other

,  U S    u v u  p  

objectives that have been linked with sanctions. O,  pu  :

S     p. I v  u u     p jv    ,   —      —u       v  k v  v  jv.6

u  v - jv. 7 I  ,  I v       u    ,   u       v   . S     pu  I’ I’  u  up u  p   pp   I ,  u v p   I ppu. T   u  

2. ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT INFLUENCING THE DECISIONS DECISIONS OF IRAN’S LEADERS T v  p     I   u up u      pu    p  I p  28 weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran

I  Iq,   1980,  v   I p’     u, v   . T uu     u         u p . Sanctioning states are aced with the question o weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran 29



whether increasing sanctions or maintaining them indefnitely will achieve

 ;  3) p      U.S.  u    .

the desired objectives—or whether there is instead a point at which the

T P   u  k      pp 

addition o more sanctions or the inexible application o existing sanc-

  p  I—u u   u k   pp 

tions might backfre or become counterproductive. F  , 

 U.S. C,          

 ,  qu   “    u v     ,”

 ,  ,       I .

u  “    u v’ uu, u       

T v jv    u     k

       ?” S     xu

 p  pv    pu  I. Ev  I 

v    z   p   pu  

       u u,     p

,    v  pu      

    I’ I’ u v u k   p (p

 pu  pv ,   u  -

u  v  I’    k u p  ). O

. H    p “” ,  u,  u   

x    u      I u  v 

    p uv.

    p      p— pp   p—   v  p   U.S. , u 

3. EASING OR LIFTING SOME SANCTIONS T px x  p   qu       

 p        I. F,   U.S.     p vv    

 p  k     A      

,     u qu      

 p  pv   I’ p  . T A 

p   u   UN Su Cu. Gv  p p 

P         u    u,

 U S.  xp  pu  u  j   ,

u I. A  p   Exuv O     

v      u k qu u  .

Exuv O p     . I    I, v,

S ,   U S   UN S u Cu  pu 

        U.S.  v        P-

p   I u       ,   

’ . Vu    v  u   p  v 

 u    x  I I’ ’ . T   -- p

pp           u . U

  p u. Ou  u   p  u  

 ,  P    p      v

    u u  p;  pu,    u  

    ;  u p      u  

P   , u C ppv,  p  

   I. I  ,    P   u 

   . While we make no specifc recommendations here

v. T CISADA  (Cpv I S Au  Dv

about a process or sequence or easing sanctions in response to Iranian

A)        I u v   p  u

cooperation, we do wish to underline the value and importance o the

  C  v  P    k  p  u u

United States having a plan or such an eventuality.

  U.S.–I . R, v  p   U.S.   I,   P’ P’ 

O u,  z   v “x” “x”      u   u   . I  p       

   p   . T I S A,  xp,   p

  v  jv,  U S    v   u -

  U.S.  ,  u p  I u      

 . M     p  u    

 . T     P    I 1)   

  v         U.S.   u. S

 , vp,  qu  u xpv v, / p,

u    v p,   , v     

   ; 2)   v   U.S.    p

. (F      p,  T I Pj’ Pj’  p, Weighing Benefts and Costs o Military Action Against Iran. )





whether increasing sanctions or maintaining them indefnitely will achieve

 ;  3) p      U.S.  u    .

the desired objectives—or whether there is instead a point at which the

T P   u  k      pp 

addition o more sanctions or the inexible application o existing sanc-

  p  I—u u   u k   pp 

tions might backfre or become counterproductive. F  , 

 U.S. C,          

 ,  qu   “    u v     ,”

 ,  ,       I .

u  “    u v’ uu, u       

T v jv    u     k

       ?” S     xu

 p  pv    pu  I. Ev  I 

v    z   p   pu  

       u u,     p

,    v  pu      

    I’ I’ u v u k   p (p

 pu  pv ,   u  -

u  v  I’    k u p  ). O

. H    p “” ,  u,  u   

x    u      I u  v 

    p uv.

    p      p— pp   p—   v  p   U.S. , u 

3. EASING OR LIFTING SOME SANCTIONS

 p        I.

T px x  p   qu       

F,   U.S.     p vv    

 p  k     A      

,     u qu      

 p  pv   I’ p  . T A 

p   u   UN Su Cu. Gv  p p 

P         u    u,

 U S.  xp  pu  u  j   ,

u I. A  p   Exuv O     

v      u k qu u  .

Exuv O p     . I    I, v,

S ,   U S   UN S u Cu  pu 

        U.S.  v        P-

p   I u       ,   

’ . Vu    v  u   p  v 

 u    x  I I’ ’ . T   -- p

pp           u . U

  p u. Ou  u   p  u  

 ,  P    p      v

    u u  p;  pu,    u  

    ;  u p      u  

P   , u C ppv,  p  

   I. I  ,    P   u 

   . While we make no specifc recommendations here

v. T CISADA  (Cpv I S Au  Dv

about a process or sequence or easing sanctions in response to Iranian

A)        I u v   p  u

cooperation, we do wish to underline the value and importance o the

  C  v  P    k  p  u u

United States having a plan or such an eventuality.

O u,  z   v “x” “x”     

  U.S.–I . R, v  p   U.S.   I,   P’ P’ 

u   u   . I  p       

   p   . T I S A,  xp,   p

  v  jv,  U S    v   u -

  U.S.  ,  u p  I u      

 . M     p  u    

 . T     P    I 1)   

  v         U.S.   u. S

 , vp,  qu  u xpv v, / p,

u    v p,   , v     

   ; 2)   v   U.S.    p

. (F      p,  T I Pj’ Pj’  p, Weighing Benefts and Costs o Military Action Against Iran. ) weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran 31


IV.

Benefts o the Sanctions

I    I,    U S, v p u    u    u    I’ u p,       I’ p u  — I’ , ,   u— u       U S,  U N Su Cu,  .    ( “”)  v u

I u    pu     , u  I v pu ,  “  k. I I  ,    ju      ,     . Dwight D. Eisenhower

”

I’ I ’   qu   u  u   u p p     z   . U.S. p        u    , u  I, u  U S’     u  pp    u I’ I’ . A u   III v,  j uu   pp  pv   k I’ v     u pu   pu  j   p    p    I’ I ’ , p   I’ u p. S v k   I’   u  I     u. u. T       u  k   I p. Bu        vv   -     pp, u v u      vv   u  pu. I    ,      xp     p      z,  v p     .

1. ADVANT ADVANTAGES AGES OF SANCTIONS AS A POLICY APPROACH S v pv           u    u I’ I’ u   upp  v -  u  Hz  H, u   . 1.1. Demonstrating international support. B k  

 z pp  pp  I p  ,  U S  uu v   v p  I    xp  pp  I v. A’     pz I u    p  v v   ,   u   U S j    upp  u    z u    . Gu, v  weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran 33

IV.

Benefts o the Sanctions

I    I,    U S, v p u    u    u    I’ u p,       I’ p u  — I’ , ,   u— u       U S,  U N Su Cu,  .    ( “”)  v u

I u    pu     , u  I v pu ,  “  k. I I  ,    ju      ,     . Dwight D. Eisenhower

”

I’ I ’   qu   u  u   u p p     z   . U.S. p        u    , u  I, u  U S’     u  pp    u I’ I’ . A u   III v,  j uu   pp  pv   k I’ v     u pu   pu  j   p    p    I’ I ’ , p   I’ u p. S v k   I’   u  I     u. u. T       u  k   I p. Bu        vv   -     pp, u v u      vv   u  pu. I    ,      xp     p      z,  v p     .

1. ADVANT ADVANTAGES AGES OF SANCTIONS AS A POLICY APPROACH S v pv           u    u I’ I’ u   upp  v -  u  Hz  H, u   . 1.1. Demonstrating international support. B k  

 z pp  pp  I p  ,  U S  uu v   v p  I    xp  pp  I v. A’     pz I u    p  v v   ,   u   U S j    upp  u    z u    . Gu, v  weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran 33

IV. BENEFITS OF THE SANCTIONS


 I’ —   Ru  C, u    v—v

x u  puu p u, u  u   I 

 v pp   vu   I. T  

u  pu—  uk, u  p.

 u 36 , u  U S,    . 8

1.4 Deterring other states rom developing nuclear weapons. A j U.S.

1.2. Reassuring regional allies. T v  pv    -

 p jv    p   vp

   u I          U

   p     u u p. T

S u  u      pv I  vp-

  upp   I   p p   

  u p,   v  p  v  z  

v U.S. p , ,   xp  p    

 . A     ,   v p  u I 

 k u p.

k u     I’ I’ u  .9 I pu,  p I up   U S    u u  k

2. SLOWING THE RATE RATE OF EXPANSION OF IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM

  u ,    u   ,   I  u

U.S. v v  v        xp  I’

I’ I ’ . . T , I  v   u   

u p.10 S v v u  u    pu, I

  p, u      p   pu

u  v  u p.11 W    ju, v,  U.S.

   I’ u p.

  v            u 

    I’ k   xp   U.S.   k  

M   v    —  xp  Iq,

u p     k  I’ Sup L. 12 S  u 

A,  p uk  Pk—v      

v   v  u  p  u-pup   u

    v upp (  pu)  pp    I.

 I  v    p   vp  -v 

M   u   u I’ I’      v  

  p   u p p. p.

  pv I     u- . Ip  -

A   I A E A (IAEA) p ,

       x,  u  

v, I’ p   uu u  xp,  I’ kp 

  Gu S, uk, uk,  Ep u      p —

- uu (   v  3.5–5%)  u  .13 S-

 v— . I ,   v up p 

 pp v  I’ I’    u . I p

p     I, v u    v uu 

 u   k — I   v- qup

  k k,  u     .

v   uu.14 I       u   u 

1.3 Keeping the door open or renewed diplomacy and diplomacy and a better relationship in the long run. S   k     pv  -

p    z p   I pp  v, v    (u     pv    ,   u   u). I u k    U S vu     v  k p      pu  u u       k v    uu -

 , - u. 15 Bu  I’ I’ u p    2002, I  u,  ,  p   10,000 u;      uu   20% v (  v    u  p- uu). T   u u   v       p  I’ u p         u p.16 I     u       u p  2002.

. O        ,  u 





 I’ —   Ru  C, u    v—v

x u  puu p u, u  u   I 

 v pp   vu   I. T  

u  pu—  uk, u  p.

 u 36 , u  U S,    .

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1.4 Deterring other states rom developing nuclear weapons. A j U.S.

1.2. Reassuring regional allies. T v  pv    -

 p jv    p   vp

   u I          U

   p     u u p. T

S u  u      pv I  vp-

  upp   I   p p   

  u p,   v  p  v  z  

v U.S. p , ,   xp  p    

 . A     ,   v p  u I 

 k u p.

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k u     I’ I’ u  . I pu,  p I up   U S    u u  k

2. SLOWING THE RATE RATE OF EXPANSION OF IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM

  u ,    u   ,   I  u

U.S. v v  v        xp  I’

I’ I ’ . . T , I  v   u   

u p.10 S v v u  u    pu, I

  p, u      p   pu

u  v  u p.11 W    ju, v,  U.S.

   I’ u p.

  v            u 

    I’ k   xp   U.S.   k  

M   v    —  xp  Iq,

u p     k  I’ Sup L. 12 S  u 

A,  p uk  Pk—v      

v   v  u  p  u-pup   u

    v upp (  pu)  pp    I.

 I  v    p   vp  -v 

M   u   u I’ I’      v  

  p   u p p. p.

  pv I     u- . Ip  -

A   I A E A (IAEA) p ,

       x,  u  

v, I’ p   uu u  xp,  I’ kp 

  Gu S, uk, uk,  Ep u      p —

- uu (   v  3.5–5%)  u  .13 S-

 v— . I ,   v up p 

 pp v  I’ I’    u . I p

p     I, v u    v uu 

 u   k — I   v- qup

  k k,  u     .

v   uu.14 I       u   u 

1.3 Keeping the door open or renewed diplomacy and diplomacy and a better relationship in the long run. S   k     pv  -

p    z p   I pp  v, v    (u     pv    ,   u   u). I u k    U S vu     v  k p      pu  u u       k v    uu -

 , - u. 15 Bu  I’ I’ u p    2002, I  u,  ,  p   10,000 u;      uu   20% v (  v    u  p- uu). T   u u   v       p  I’ u p         u p.16 I     u       u p  2002.

. O        ,  u 





3. WEAKENING IRAN AND REDUCING ITS ITS REGIONAL AND GLO GLOBAL BAL INF INFLUE LUENCE NCE

A (EIA), I   u 1     p       2011,     v  2.5   p — u  u 40%. 24 E

Pp   v u     u I’  vu    up     , I           u  u  Iq, A, S, L,   P Gu u. W  vu  u  v,  U S    p  I  v    pu    upp  v u  Hz. I ,     ’  ’        v I. A   u I’  xp,      u , I I’ ’ u     p   . S ,      p,       v  I’ I’   x  u   . I u  pv upp, u   p,  L Hz, S   Iq,    A.17 I pp      I Rvu Gu Cp (IRGC)  v  v    v  B A A  S,    pp. 18   x, I’ u         I j   v - up p,    , u   p   uu, u, ,   .

 v     u p   EU  ,  Ju 2012, I  xp   v  u 1.3   p .  v U.S.   I’ C Bk, I  C   p      I , u pv I   u.25 Bu  u  , I       u   k,   k v   u pu   — p I  u  v u   u    . T   I’ I’  u p u  vu      u 40%   p  Sp 2011  O 2012. 26 I   , I    v   u v,   u $70 ,   $106    2011 (I (I’ ’ C Bk v     v u  u $150 , u  xp   u x).27 I P Mu Aj   M 2012  I  u v   , v  I    p xp  . I  u , I           u xp  u   v   pu  pu pu,         . Bu v  ,  p   I’  xp  k u   p  I’ I’ v u. O u  uu u xp -  

3.1. Iran’s economy substantially weakened. I  v -

    v . A   I M Fu,

 k I’ ,   u    

  u      I v,  I Rpu  u

up,    k   u . 19 B U.S. , I’ 

  p , u pj   x    pv. 28 O 

xp v     40%. Au    ; x

 ,  p  ’ up “pp”      

  up  70%    100%   ,     

 -   2011,         ’ u . I , 

 k   I v  27%.

20

C   up   

   z. Up     17% u u  21

.

T            I ,

    pu  p  u uu, u I’ u u. A, I    u p   - .

u. Cup  k-k       x   v    I’ . I      v u I, u   u      u.

22

I , , pu  EU    p k  Jp, Su K, I,  uk uk  u  pu  I ,    I’  u p.23 A  2012,      E I


u ,   I v v  u u   u-

I’’  v   up     3.2. Regional trading disrupted. I  v       v u  p I         U S, p uu  u . F xp, I u  pu  I  p   A pu, 




3. WEAKENING IRAN AND REDUCING ITS ITS REGIONAL AND GLO GLOBAL BAL INF INFLUE LUENCE NCE

A (EIA), I   u 1     p       2011,

Pp   v u     u I’  vu    up     , I           u  u  Iq, A, S, L,   P Gu u. W  vu  u  v,  U S    p  I  v    pu    upp  v u  Hz. I ,     ’  ’        v I. A   u I’  xp,      u , I I’ ’ u     p   . S ,      p,       v  I’ I’   x  u   . I u  pv upp, u   p,  L Hz, S   Iq,    A.17 I pp      I Rvu Gu Cp (IRGC)  v  v    v  B A A  S,    pp. 18   x, I’ u         I j   v - up p,    , u   p   uu, u, ,   .

    v  2.5   p — u  u 40%. 24 E  v     u p   EU  ,  Ju 2012, I  xp   v  u 1.3   p .  v U.S.   I’ C Bk, I  C   p      I , u pv I   u.25 Bu  u  , I       u   k,   k v   u pu   — p I  u  v u   u    . T   I’ I’  u p u  vu      u 40%   p  Sp 2011  O 2012. 26 I   , I    v   u v,   u $70 ,   $106    2011 (I (I’ ’ C Bk v     v u  u $150 , u  xp   u x).27 I P Mu Aj   M 2012  I  u v   , v  I    p xp  . I  u , I           u xp  u   v   pu  pu pu,         . Bu v  ,  p   I’  xp  k u   p  I’ I’ v u. O u  uu u xp -  

3.1. Iran’s economy substantially weakened. I  v -

    v . A   I M Fu,

 k I’ ,   u    

  u      I v,  I Rpu  u

up,    k   u .

19

B U.S. , I’ 

  p , u pj   x    pv. 28 O 

xp v     40%. Au    ; x

 ,  p  ’ up “pp”      

  up  70%    100%   ,     

 -   2011,         ’ u . I , 

 k   I v  27%. 20 C   up   

u ,   I v v  u u   u-

   z. Up     17% u u 

u. Cup  k-k       x

.21 T            I ,

  v    I’ . I      v

    pu  p  u uu, u I’ u

u I, u   u      u.

u. A, I    u p   - . 22 I , , pu  EU    p k  Jp, Su K, I,  uk uk  u  pu  I ,    I’  u p.23 A  2012,      E I



I’’  v   up     3.2. Regional trading disrupted. I  v       v u  p I         U S, p uu  u . F xp, I u  pu  I  p   A pu, 



 U A E (UAE), pvu u  z I (  

p ) k p     1990,  UN Ru 1929 p u

    pu),  pv  UAE k  p

  I p p  pv  v   p. W

  I. 29

I     uu       , -

I , Ku Ku  u    I  p   pv-

  pv I    vp -  qup.

  A ’ Cpv I S Au  Dv A

Ru  p Ru 1929   v    p S-300 

(CISADA). Su A,  v I   v  u   M E, 

   I,        I    . S , 

    u  u  pu  I.

 v     v p  v  . 34

O   , I       xp

I , I’    P Gu    qupp

    v         . I 

,   pu  vu  p p   U

xp   Iq    u B’ -  p. 30

S. T       Gu S      u  I’ I’

Pk   U.S. pu  k    u   pp 

 , u p  qup  p  p  

I. uk uk   u   u  u   pu  I  

. I ,  Gu S v  v v    qup-

,  p   v v   u  I u

  ,   u I   . M   qu

    x  u  ,    u   

  U S v  p  uz  I  . 36

rials.. uk  I $6.4            u I rials

I    p p, u, I    

 , u     50%  uk’    I.31 A  O

vp  p   k. A  I 

2012, EU   p  I u  -xp  uk uk,,  I I’ ’

  u, I’    u; u       

  uk         uu. Bu   I 

.37 Mv Mv,,  u  I’   v v   

uk u k     - . uk p  I 

 v v      —v p, k

  188%  2007–2011,32      uk v

 S u, u    k,   .

, 1,470 I   p  uk uk      2010, p   319  2002. uk   qu    I p  p   u. 33 Bu uk  u  vu     U S   M E,    u  U.S. pk  pu uk  u      I. I     p, xp   k-k   -   I         p   v  k  v.

3.4. Iran declining in importance as a global energy player. A  u

I’’  xp,   upp  p     I vu  u k u u  I     . T   k     ju   u p  I xp v  p  . T ,   I       kp. A I      p u  S  Huz—  u,         M E—u u    p pk. 38

3.3. Regional military balance shiting against Iran. T   v p

4. CREA CREATING TING INTERNAL DIVISION AND DISCONTENT IN IRAN

  I, p  UN Su Cu Ru 1929  2010,   I’ I’

B     pu  I        -

  z            U.S. -

 pu    . E   pu upp u

  up    ( ). T  v   I’ v-

 pu   I      p, u I’ I’

 p   v u  I’ p   p

   u p. Bu   u  ju    

pj. I’  j u  v  pu (k,  , 

, u  u,   v  U.S. .





 U A E (UAE), pvu u  z I (  

p ) k p     1990,  UN Ru 1929 p u

    pu),  pv  UAE k  p

  I p p  pv  v   p. W

  I.

29

I     uu       , -

I , Ku Ku  u    I  p   pv-

  pv I    vp -  qup.

  A ’ Cpv I S Au  Dv A

Ru  p Ru 1929   v    p S-300 

(CISADA). Su A,  v I   v  u   M E, 

   I,        I    . S , 

    u  u  pu  I.

 v     v p  v  . 34

O   , I       xp

I , I’    P Gu    qupp

    v         . I 

,   pu  vu  p p   U

xp   Iq    u B’ -  p. 30

S. T       Gu S      u  I’ I’

Pk   U.S. pu  k    u   pp 

 , u p  qup  p  p  

I. uk uk   u   u  u   pu  I  

. I ,  Gu S v  v v    qup-

,  p   v v   u  I u

  ,   u I   . M   qu

    x  u  ,    u   

  U S v  p  uz  I  . 36

rials.. uk  I $6.4            u I rials 31

 , u     50%  uk’    I.

A  O

I    p p, u, I     vp  p   k. A  I 

2012, EU   p  I u  -xp  uk uk,,  I I’ ’

  u, I’    u; u       

  uk         uu. Bu   I 

.37 Mv Mv,,  u  I’   v v   

uk u k     - . uk p  I 

 v v      —v p, k

  188%  2007–2011,

32

     uk v

, 1,470 I   p  uk uk      2010, p   319  2002. uk   qu    I p  p   u. 33 Bu uk  u  vu     U S   M E,    u  U.S. pk  pu uk  u      I. I     p, xp   k-k   -   I         p   v  k  v.

 S u, u    k,   . 3.4. Iran declining in importance as a global energy player. A  u

I’’  xp,   upp  p     I vu  u k u u  I     . T   k     ju   u p  I xp v  p  . T ,   I       kp. A I      p u  S  Huz—  u,         M E—u u    p pk. 38

3.3. Regional military balance shiting against Iran. T   v p

4. CREA CREATING TING INTERNAL DIVISION AND DISCONTENT IN IRAN

  I, p  UN Su Cu Ru 1929  2010,   I’ I’

B     pu  I        -

  z            U.S. -

 pu    . E   pu upp u

  up    ( ). T  v   I’ v-

 pu   I      p, u I’ I’

 p   v u  I’ p   p

   u p. Bu   u  ju    

pj. I’  j u  v  pu (k,  , 

, u  u,   v  U.S. .





4.1. Eects on elite thinking. T u     

p   p—,   ,   pu upp   I-

I  v  p  I’    u, u   IRGC, 

       —  pu u, pv, 

Bz ( ),   ,   — k  I I’ ’ -

 u  v  z  u . 40 W  u 

px p uu. Dv k        

u  pu   u  u k  I , 

. S- v   I  u    

v    k     pv u  pv ppu

    ( u u C   S ),  

u   v. 41

      p —u   k            u   ,   pu  p

5. ENHANCED SANCTIONS MIGHT CHANGE CHANGE IRAN’S NUCLEAR NEGOTIATING STRATEGY

   . W P Aj    z  

I S III, Mk S Wk, Wk,        I v

   , ,   u  ju    

 u v ,    pv,  p   -

pu z    v u  v I’ I’ 

p  (   p). T  v   v u p

p, u  I u k     u p.

  p    u. u. F  ,     

N          u  u   v  

p       pu  p    p

U S. Ou u    k  I’ I’ p  uu 

   v. I I I I’ ’ p      p pu u 

 u   p k    u    U

  u  pv  u      

S  I.

,  i i             

I    k  quk   I   pp-

U.S.       C  2012  I   

 u        u    u

    puu vp   u p. 39 Ev ,   

u ,    v  u   pu u 

    pp  v pp I  k p   u

   -.

p     u. T Sup L’ uu 

Ev      I    u p, 

   uu––u  u p   j  p,  

u         ;    

    p       u  (

    v  puv . Bu u  u u  

  Sup L’  atwa  atwa,,  u ,   u  u

v     vu  —    p ,

 u p,       u  u p u 

,      v.

    U S   ). I  Sup L v

E,     pp  v u p   -

    ’ ’    I’ u p ,     

   I’ . Bu    v   v 

uu;  p,   u  v   u u  ju  px 

pv,  U S        

 ,       p      .

  p  I p   u. T   I’  u-

4.2. Eects on public thinking. Su  v   u

  qu    I,   u   I’ v u    u  u-k    p  pu v. Pu        p  . Bu , ,   u  ju  pu upp    pu     


   UNSC  ,   P5+1 ( v p    Su Cu, pu G), G),    . I Ap 2012, I u  u k  P5+1  Iu; k    B  M 2012,   M  Ju 2012. “Exp  v”  . I  k, I u       up    uu   20% v.




4.1. Eects on elite thinking. T u     

p   p—,   ,   pu upp   I-

I  v  p  I’    u, u   IRGC, 

       —  pu u, pv, 

Bz ( ),   ,   — k  I I’ ’ -

 u  v  z  u . 40 W  u 

px p uu. Dv k        

u  pu   u  u k  I , 

. S- v   I  u    

v    k     pv u  pv ppu

    ( u u C   S ),  

u   v. 41

      p —u   k            u   ,   pu  p

5. ENHANCED SANCTIONS MIGHT CHANGE CHANGE IRAN’S NUCLEAR NEGOTIATING STRATEGY

   . W P Aj    z  

I S III, Mk S Wk, Wk,        I v

   , ,   u  ju    

 u v ,    pv,  p   -

pu z    v u  v I’ I’ 

p  (   p). T  v   v u p

p, u  I u k     u p.

  p    u. u. F  ,     

N          u  u   v  

p       pu  p    p

U S. Ou u    k  I’ I’ p  uu 

   v. I I I I’ ’ p      p pu u 

 u   p k    u    U

  u  pv  u      

S  I.

,  i i             

I    k  quk   I   pp-

U.S.       C  2012  I   

 u        u    u

    puu vp   u p. 39 Ev ,   

u ,    v  u   pu u 

    pp  v pp I  k p   u

   -.

p     u. T Sup L’ uu 

Ev      I    u p, 

   uu––u  u p   j  p,  

u         ;    

    p       u  (

    v  puv . Bu u  u u  

  Sup L’  atwa  atwa,,  u ,   u  u

v     vu  —    p ,

 u p,       u  u p u 

,      v.

    U S   ). I  Sup L v

E,     pp  v u p   -

    ’ ’    I’ u p ,     

   I’ . Bu    v   v 

uu;  p,   u  v   u u  ju  px 

pv,  U S        

 ,       p      .

  p  I p   u. T   I’  u-

4.2. Eects on public thinking. Su  v   u

  qu    I,   u   I’ v u    u  u-k    p  pu v. Pu        p  . Bu , ,   u  ju  pu upp    pu     


   UNSC  ,   P5+1 ( v p    Su Cu, pu G), G),    . I Ap 2012, I u  u k  P5+1  Iu; k    B  M 2012,   M  Ju 2012. “Exp  v”  . I  k, I u       up    uu   20% v.



T k v , v, pu  ku   u   p  . A       20% , I    EU   I  pu     I’    uu  pu pup  z—p   P5+1      k (      p). W  vp u   pp   I’ k vu u v   p     I ,  u p       v      u u. T k   v     u   v    jv          vu. A    , v,   uu  u   u v        k  I’ —   p  —     p   u   u pu  pv          I.




T k v , v, pu  ku   u   p  . A       20% , I    EU   I  pu     I’    uu  pu pup  z—p   P5+1      k (      p). W  vp u   pp   I’ k vu u v   p     I ,  u p       v      u u. T k   v     u   v    jv          vu. A    , v,   uu  u   u v        k  I’ —   p  —     p   u   u pu  pv          I.



V.

Costs o the Sanctions

T   k    p   I     U S  u  uuu      u I’ I ’ u     upp  v - up. Bu        p    U S,  u   vp   , v I  p    p   . S   k I’ ,  I’  u,

W k   up  u  V W,  N Su Av Bu p “the “ the endurance o the enemy.” enemy. ”

 pu pu  I p  v   ,   v—u    v  u v qu, u  p xp  k-k    p   up uu  . W       v     I’ u  , ,   k u  - U.S. p jv v-à-v I,    p   . I   pu    u     u  u p     ,      M E,   u k 

McGeorge Bundy

     .

1. DISPUTES WITH U.S. ALLIES AND OTHER COUNTRIES T U S’   u    u       p . D  Ru, C,   u—u I, uk, uk, Su K—v      . Ru  C pp U.S.U.S.-    pu I’    I’ v .. S-    U S  Ru  C  p U.S. U.S.   v Su Cu u     pp v  L,  201 1. k ,      L  v u      Su Cu    u     S. I    uk  Ru  C u       I. T u  u u  Ru, I, uk,  C     u   pv I    k . M,  U.S. v v  xp  p p     Ru  C     I,   U S u  u  p p  k p   u   U.S.  Ru  C upp. weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran 45

V.

Costs o the Sanctions

T   k    p   I     U S  u  uuu      u I’ I ’ u     upp  v - up. Bu        p    U S,  u   vp   , v I  p    p   . S   k I’ ,  I’  u,

W k   up  u  V W,  N Su Av Bu p “the “ the endurance o the enemy.” enemy. ”

 pu pu  I p  v   ,   v—u    v  u v qu, u  p xp  k-k    p   up uu  . W       v     I’ u  , ,   k u  - U.S. p jv v-à-v I,    p   . I   pu    u     u  u p     ,      M E,   u k 

McGeorge Bundy

     .

1. DISPUTES WITH U.S. ALLIES AND OTHER COUNTRIES T U S’   u    u       p . D  Ru, C,   u—u I, uk, uk, Su K—v      . Ru  C pp U.S.U.S.-    pu I’    I’ v .. S-    U S  Ru  C  p U.S. U.S.   v Su Cu u     pp v  L,  201 1. k ,      L  v u      Su Cu    u     S. I    uk  Ru  C u       I. T u  u u  Ru, I, uk,  C     u   pv I    k . M,  U.S. v v  xp  p p     Ru  C     I,   U S u  u  p p  k p   u   U.S.  Ru  C upp. weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran 45

V. COSTS OF THE SANCTIONS


Eup pp  x-  (  pz   

H   u     u      I 

  p), u   I S A,  pk    

  . W       ,   

Eup  1998.42 T pu  u   p    EU 

  v  xp  v - k.  ,    

 p   U S  u I upp  ,  

v  u u  I .

U S v   F’ vv   pj  vp I’ M p).43 Ov  p    ,  EU p  vv,

3. EMPOWERING ANTI-REFORM LEADERS AND FACTIONS, FACTIONS, AND DIS DISEMP EMPOWE OWERIN RING G CIVI CIVIL L SOCI SOCIETY ETY

  Eup u v   v    

I  v ,    I    

uu  v. Bu Eup’ Eup’ u      u

p p  pv   u-vv ,  u 

  upp       I,   2012,  Eup

  p   I v   pp up  p.

Su P   (  p   SA  F,  Ru 

u j  U.S.   I’ I’ C Bk,    u   p   U S        I. T  p      EU u  u u  .

2. EROSION OF GOVERNANCE CAPACITY AND INSTITUTIONAL ACCOUNT ACC OUNTABI ABILIT LITY Y IN IRA IRAN N S    v p  u p  I    p vv     p  up.

3.1 Helping conservatives and the IRGC to rally support. E -

   p  I , u  v--pu I Rvu Gu Cp (IRGC),   pu upp   v  p   U.S.- , v “ .” .” 47 I’  u    u v uu   p    M 2012,   I z   u            . A  ,     pup uu   65%,   v  pu upp  I I’ ’   

2.1 Enranchising and enriching powerul actions, including the IRGC. A

pu.48 (O xp    uu   p, u pu

I’ I ’  vu     u v  p ,  v 

pu   ’  p.)

v        I’ pp,    p   v-

A   , Sup L A K  v 

   pu v    . I  

vu  I vu  1979   u    U S. R

   u  u        p 

pp        ,   pu I 

p. T    u   IRGC   ,  vv 

  u   u. T    ,    

pv   v  v  u. T   -

   p     .

    up  k  u u..44 A, IRGC- IRGC-  v qu  k  k  , u u, k, p,   (   v   p    pj  IRGC-k p).45 IRGC p  v  p    v   u, u  k     U.S. . S v  u  p  I’ . T   p,          I p u k-k . U  u    , I    u        .46 46 weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran

3.2. Decreasing space or civil society.   x  u-vv 

 IRGC    v  I ,   p   v    u  k. I   p    I   Ju 2013    p  p      Aj      Sup L’ u.49 Bu    u      pv  p u      u      U S  p     . T       u v qu  v  v. S   pv  I v  weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran 47



Eup pp  x-  (  pz   

H   u     u      I 

  p), u   I S A,  pk    

  . W       ,   

Eup  1998.

42

T pu  u   p    EU 

 p   U S  u I upp  ,  

  v  xp  v - k.  ,     v  u u  I .

U S v   F’ vv   pj  vp I’ Su P   (  p   SA  F,  Ru  43

M p).

Ov  p    ,  EU p  vv,

3. EMPOWERING ANTI-REFORM LEADERS AND FACTIONS, FACTIONS, AND DIS DISEMP EMPOWE OWERIN RING G CIVI CIVIL L SOCI SOCIETY ETY

  Eup u v   v    

I  v ,    I    

uu  v. Bu Eup’ Eup’ u      u

p p  pv   u-vv ,  u 

  upp       I,   2012,  Eup

  p   I v   pp up  p.

u j  U.S.   I’ I’ C Bk,    u   p   U S        I. T  p      EU u  u u  .

2. EROSION OF GOVERNANCE CAPACITY AND INSTITUTIONAL ACCOUNT ACC OUNTABI ABILIT LITY Y IN IRA IRAN N S    v p  u p  I    p vv     p  up.

3.1 Helping conservatives and the IRGC to rally support. E -

   p  I , u  v--pu I Rvu Gu Cp (IRGC),   pu upp   v  p   U.S.- , v “ .” .” 47 I’  u    u v uu   p    M 2012,   I z   u            . A  ,     pup uu   65%,   v  pu upp  I I’ ’   

2.1 Enranchising and enriching powerul actions, including the IRGC. A

pu.48 (O xp    uu   p, u pu

I’ I ’  vu     u v  p ,  v 

pu   ’  p.)

v        I’ pp,    p   v-

A   , Sup L A K  v 

   pu v    . I  

vu  I vu  1979   u    U S. R

   u  u        p 

pp        ,   pu I 

p. T    u   IRGC   ,  vv 

  u   u. T    ,    

pv   v  v  u. T   -

   p     .

    up  k  u u..

44

A, IRGC- IRGC-  v qu  k  k  , u u, k, p,   (   v   p    pj  IRGC-k p).45 IRGC p  v  p    v   u, u  k     U.S. . S v  u  p  I’ . T   p,          I p u k-k . U  u    , I    u        .46 46 weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran

3.2. Decreasing space or civil society.   x  u-vv 

 IRGC    v  I ,   p   v    u  k. I   p    I   Ju 2013    p  p      Aj      Sup L’ u.49 Bu    u      pv  p u      u      U S  p     . T       u v qu  v  v. S   pv  I v  weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran 47



 qup  u u    I   pv 

5. INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR U.S.–IRAN CONFLICT AND REGIONAL REGIONAL VIOLENCE VIOLENCE

 I’ u, I-vv ppu     u    u   u     . 50 T CISADA  z  p p        xp    xp  I   v     . T xp  pp    , u          I k . Cp k   qup    v u  I  pp   xp    u Dp, u    p  u    p xp. T          v          k. 51

T U S       v    —  u u v        p  v . Bu  I  v  v        u      ,    k k  . I  v        “  .” 54 S U.S.  v u   u   u  p   “ uv”;   ,  u     “p  p  ,”   pv . 55 C,  u    pp,  U S    v   u    

4. LONG-TERM ALIENATION ALIENATION BETWEEN IRAN AND THE UNITED STATES

     pv  v .56 T  ,     I   U.S.  uup   P Gu,  v  I’   

A pv  k   v   , I’  

  U S   . A  u 

 k  u,   U S k       I’ I’

I’ I ’ Q  ( u   IRGC  p u  I’ )  

pp—u  u . 52 R v  p u 

uk u — xp,  pup I p, v  U.S. 

 u u  pp  pv  z U.S.  I

  O 2011,    Su A   U S,

 v , v   u I     p.

  IRGC’ pp   S . 57 O u   

T I up  2009—  G Mv—   u I   u     p uu . A  

p    I I’’ xp    u,    I  p pp u  S  Huz.

   uu   (  pk, v  p vv   I), p     p . T 

5.1. Expansion o Iran’s domestic arms industry. T v  

v   p, u  u  . W up  

 u I’ v  p  (u v, u B)  

u v   G Mv p   ppu  I 

 p u  I I’’    xp   

 A     v   I   v    

u. U U  pu    , I    vp

k  . T u p  pp   I k 

uvv     u , u     u  

I u 30    ( -    I ppu), 

P Gu,  qu  p  u,    Ap 2012

   I. R- I      p  

p   U.S. Dp  D. Pvu D Dp p, u

upp  u   v   u . .

  u  2010,   p  I’  p. T v

53

I ,  v   v  u  I u 

 u  I  v uv  Ru 1929  , 

  v  U S  pp  uu x p—v

 x,   vp   u—   v  p-

  I v    u  upp.

    u   p  . 58 T u   v   U.S.    P Gu.





 qup  u u    I   pv 

5. INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR U.S.–IRAN CONFLICT AND REGIONAL REGIONAL VIOLENCE VIOLENCE

 I’ u, I-vv ppu     u    u   u     . 50 T CISADA  z  p p        xp    xp  I   v     . T xp  pp    , u          I k . Cp k   qup    v u  I  pp   xp    u Dp, u    p  u    p xp. T          v          k. 51

T U S       v    —  u u v        p  v . Bu  I  v  v        u      ,    k k  . I  v        “  .” 54 S U.S.  v u   u   u  p   “ uv”;   ,  u     “p  p  ,”   pv . 55 C,  u    pp,  U S    v   u    

4. LONG-TERM ALIENATION ALIENATION BETWEEN IRAN AND THE UNITED STATES

     pv  v .56 T  ,     I   U.S.  uup   P Gu,  v  I’   

A pv  k   v   , I’  

  U S   . A  u 

 k  u,   U S k       I’ I’

I’ I ’ Q  ( u   IRGC  p u  I’ )  

pp—u  u . 52 R v  p u 

uk u — xp,  pup I p, v  U.S. 

 u u  pp  pv  z U.S.  I

  O 2011,    Su A   U S,

 v , v   u I     p.

  IRGC’ pp   S . 57 O u   

T I up  2009—  G Mv—   u I   u     p uu . A  

p    I I’’ xp    u,    I  p pp u  S  Huz.

   uu   (  pk, v  p vv   I), p     p . T 

5.1. Expansion o Iran’s domestic arms industry. T v  

v   p, u  u  . W up  

 u I’ v  p  (u v, u B)  

u v   G Mv p   ppu  I 

 p u  I I’’    xp   

 A     v   I   v    

u. U U  pu    , I    vp

k  . T u p  pp   I k 

uvv     u , u     u  

I u 30    ( -    I ppu), 

P Gu,  qu  p  u,    Ap 2012

   I. R- I      p  

p   U.S. Dp  D. Pvu D Dp p, u

upp  u   v   u . .

  u  2010,   p  I’  p. T v

53

I ,  v   v  u  I u 

 u  I  v uv  Ru 1929  , 

  v  U S  pp  uu x p—v

 x,   vp   u—   v  p-

  I v    u  upp.

    u   p  . 58 T u   v   U.S.    P Gu.





5.2. Potential or conict in the Strait o Hormuz. T ,  p

I   p       v.65

 p    I, v u I’       

I,, I   u    vu  , , I

  S  Huz   pp.

59

W u p  

EU       Ju 1, 2012, I  u   qu   p   u   S  . 60 I I     u   (    ),      P Gu u k u— u u  I     u   S. 61 T U S   ,  uu ,  U.S.  u  p  p  S  I   k pp u  u k-p.

 x p.66 6.2. Difculty obtaining spare parts or passenger aircrat. T 1995 U.S. 

   I u  xp     p p   U.S.- v , v     I’ . Hv, u  v   u  U.S.  pu,  u    p  - up; k  v     k  u pu. I I’ ’       p , u          

6. POTENTIAL HUMANITARIAN HUMANITARIAN EFFECTS ON IRANIANS

 u      p p   U S.67

T pv   v  u  2010 u  qu-

6.3. Complicating humanitarian relie donations. A  u  px

v     u     v     v

   I v , u  up v p  

 -  I I’ ’ ppu. L-   u “pp ” ”

  u  U.S. z       I. T 

 v      pp  I    . Au 

 up   Auu 2012,  quk   I. T u

   xp u   v   I ppu-

  up pp  OFAC       pp   -

,   v  p  pu u u  u  

.68 P   vu I   ( xp,  

pu   u u  upp  , u  U

pk  ), u    z k  I  

S’    ,  u  u    I

p u u z u    I k , 

62

pu.

S p   v u   u p  

  qu  p u Dp .69

   p  . I ,   u Dp’ O  U.S.       uk   p   qu, 

7. DETRIMENTAL DETRIMENTAL ECONOMIC EFFECTS ON THE UNITED STATES, ITS EUROPEAN ALLIES, AND THE REGION

   k   k      I    U.S.

T    p, u  p   ,   

p   k   p pu . 63 Iv Iv,,   p

p     p    U.S., Eup,  

pp  —  v     u  

, p      ppu    . S

—  k   v.

    p   u    pp  B 

F A C (OFAC) (OFAC)  p  xp  u   I,

6.1. Reduction in the availability o ood and other basic human requirements. T  u u p     k    

 I      v      v . A     Iq   u  v     uu  p ,  p x   I  uu  v, u,  . I Ju 2012,  k p     Npu v kk  p, pu  k,    p    I .64 Ev    ppu I,  u  u  . 50 weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran

 S (u  u p pu I   u )  u      U S  . Evv  , xp  vu k,  xp  k-k ,  -p -p   p  k  u  u   p      U S,  EU u,   M E—u          . N    vu  Eup  M E   I    u , p   p  uu . Bu v    weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran 51



5.2. Potential or conict in the Strait o Hormuz. T ,  p

I   p       v.65

 p    I, v u I’       

I,, I   u    vu  , , I

  S  Huz   pp.

59

W u p  

EU       Ju 1, 2012, I  u   qu   p   u   S  . 60 I I     u   (    ),      P Gu u k u— u u  I     u   S. 61 T U S   ,  uu ,  U.S.  u  p  p  S  I   k pp u  u k-p.

 x p.66 6.2. Difculty obtaining spare parts or passenger aircrat. T 1995 U.S. 

   I u  xp     p p   U.S.- v , v     I’ . Hv, u  v   u  U.S.  pu,  u    p  - up; k  v     k  u pu. I I’ ’       p , u          

6. POTENTIAL HUMANITARIAN HUMANITARIAN EFFECTS ON IRANIANS

 u      p p   U S.67

T pv   v  u  2010 u  qu-

6.3. Complicating humanitarian relie donations. A  u  px

v     u     v     v

   I v , u  up v p  

 -  I I’ ’ ppu. L-   u “pp ” ”

  u  U.S. z       I. T 

 v      pp  I    . Au 

 up   Auu 2012,  quk   I. T u

   xp u   v   I ppu-

  up pp  OFAC       pp   -

,   v  p  pu u u  u  

.68 P   vu I   ( xp,  

pu   u u  upp  , u  U

pk  ), u    z k  I  

S’    ,  u  u    I

p u u z u    I k , 

62

pu.

S p   v u   u p  

  qu  p u Dp .69

   p  . I ,   u Dp’ O  U.S.       uk   p   qu, 

7. DETRIMENTAL DETRIMENTAL ECONOMIC EFFECTS ON THE UNITED STATES, ITS EUROPEAN ALLIES, AND THE REGION

   k   k      I    U.S.

T    p, u  p   ,   

F A C (OFAC) (OFAC)  p  xp  u   I,

p   k   p pu .

63

Iv,,   p Iv

p     p    U.S., Eup,  

pp  —  v     u  

, p      ppu    . S

—  k   v.

    p   u    pp  B 

6.1. Reduction in the availability o ood and other basic human requirements. T  u u p     k    

 I      v      v . A     Iq   u  v     uu  p ,  p x   I  uu  v, u,  . I Ju 2012,  k p     Npu v kk  p, pu  k,    p    I .64 Ev    ppu I,  u  u  . 50 weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran

 S (u  u p pu I   u )  u      U S  . Evv  , xp  vu k,  xp  k-k ,  -p -p   p  k  u  u   p      U S,  EU u,   M E—u          . N    vu  Eup  M E   I    u , p   p  uu . Bu v    weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran 51



,,  p        v    

I   k “ “ u”    pu   I (“

p  u  . S p      

u””      ). 77 Hv, u u u    v

  u  k        ,

   p    . 78 S Eup u v 

 U S.

  I p     UN S u Cu  EU  ,

7.1. The exclusion o U.S. and allied frms rom opportunities in Iran. O

vu “ppu “ppu ”      xu U.S.     p uv u ppu  I.70 A   p    pu u   I  vp k,    p     xp   U S’  , 71          IRGC , u      C, V, Bu, M, Uk,   u    U.S. . I   v   p, 72 u        p       p vv     p    v   I. C,  pu ,      up  upp  I    u   v. C   I’ I’   pu (u C   u   pu  I, pp

 p       u  I. 79 Bu   EU   I v   up u  - p. S EU u     pv  u        EU   I. 80 M,  u k    I’ I’ C Bk v p I’   uv . T   M 2012   S  W Ik F u,  SWIF,   I     (   p)   pp I’   v  u, u   u         I. S  u  C, Pk, M,  —, uk k  Eup   v u    U S—v    v quk  pz  I’ u. 81

u   u     upp      ),

7.3. Possible negative impact on economies o the Middle East. T  

 v, C  v $1   ’ ’ uu.73 T 

I’   u     Gu Cp Cu u, 

p—    “Az “Az””   I — v 

 j     v  I    k .

v p     Eup,   .74

Du,       -xp  pu  I,   

7.2. Possible negative impacts on economies o European countries. T

   I u   v v   I’ I’ u   p,  Eup U,     v k  v  Eup ( ). I      k  Eup,   PPP (pu p p) GDP  u $1 , 75   -   p    k   W u  . W  v EU   (u 2011,   pv      )      p        Eup,    . G   C  I,    u  v      ,  k    I k. 76 I  pv u    p  u  EU u, v    . S- k pu  Eup   v   v

v p    v. R  , v u 2011,       p      M E, pp u  pv   I    u 2010. 82 A u ,  p xp  u, k-k   I  A, Iq, Pk,  uk     A    I .83 Bu   pu          k. I A, up  - u   u ,    k k k  A  84      U S k  v  u      u. A, A, u  A k pvu p  I,      A   ,,   u  A u k,   v  v    . 85

u   Eup u   u   - pu 





,,  p        v    

I   k “ “ u”    pu   I (“

p  u  . S p      

u””      ). 77 Hv, u u u    v

  u  k        ,

   p    . 78 S Eup u v 

 U S.

  I p     UN S u Cu  EU  ,

7.1. The exclusion o U.S. and allied frms rom opportunities in Iran. O

vu “ppu “ppu ”      xu U.S.     p uv u ppu  I.70 A   p    pu u   I  vp k,    p     xp   U S’  , 71          IRGC , u      C, V, Bu, M, Uk,   u    U.S. . I   v   p, 72 u        p       p vv     p    v   I. C,  pu ,      up  upp  I    u   v. C   I’ I’   pu (u C   u   pu  I, pp

 p       u  I. 79 Bu   EU   I v   up u  - p. S EU u     pv  u        EU   I. 80 M,  u k    I’ I’ C Bk v p I’   uv . T   M 2012   S  W Ik F u,  SWIF,   I     (   p)   pp I’   v  u, u   u         I. S  u  C, Pk, M,  —, uk k  Eup   v u    U S—v    v quk  pz  I’ u. 81

u   u     upp      ),

7.3. Possible negative impact on economies o the Middle East. T  

 v, C  v $1   ’ ’ uu.73 T 

I’   u     Gu Cp Cu u, 

p—    “Az “Az””   I — v 

 j     v  I    k .

74

v p     Eup,   .

7.2. Possible negative impacts on economies o European countries. T

   I u   v v   I’ I’ u   p,  Eup U,     v k  v  Eup ( ). I      k  Eup,   PPP (pu p p) GDP  u $1 , 75   -   p    k   W u  . W  v EU   (u 2011,   pv      )      p        Eup,    . G   C  I,    u  v      ,  k    I k. 76 I  pv u    p  u  EU u, v    . S- k pu  Eup   v   v

Du,       -xp  pu  I,    v p    v. R  , v u 2011,       p      M E, pp u  pv   I    u 2010. 82 A u ,  p xp  u, k-k   I  A, Iq, Pk,  uk     A    I .83 Bu   pu          k. I A, up  - u   u ,    k k k  A  84      U S k  v  u      u. A, A, u  A k pvu p  I,      A   ,,   u  A u k,   v  v    . 85

u   Eup u   u   - pu 





8. DETRIMENTAL EFFECTS ON THE GLOBAL ENERGY SUPPLY AND THE STABILITY OF THE GLOBAL ENERGY MARKET

 p  xp qu u  (LNG). I 2011, I vu  

8.1. World oil prices elevated by tensions with Iran. I   ’

LNG p (u    j upp  u   uk, u   pp).89 I  u    u   j     ,    pu v.

u- pv  v (137      9.3%   ’ ). I 2010—  u     E I A  p —I  OPEC’ -  pu   ’ -  xp ( Su A  Ru).86 I  p,      I    u

CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS Ou    pp    u       k — —       u 

(u     p  )   pu 

   u. W v v   k    -

jup    p. , ,   v   u , , u  

p,    u,   u qu. W v

v  k     p  ;   pu-

pp  px qu: W   jv    ? A -

   U S;   u  I’ I’      k 

  k  p  U S    v  jv?

 .87 Bu      p p. I    

A  ,  u  ? I   p      

k   S  Huz, u  u 35%   -u 

   x pp  x   k  

 , v  pu  p p   p. O p   

upuv? H   U S     xu v

2011   2012  I  u . I      

   p  I,  z  p  v -

EU    u     (Ju 1, 2012). Suqu,  I

qu? A  v    pp (     uu pp), 

 (u  F M A Ak S)   I u    k

v    I p      v, u

 S    pp . S,   p  v 

       .

u , pu v  U S’ S’   u-up   Gu,   u Gu       I. 8.2. Long-term removal o Iranian supplies rom the global energy market.

Ev   EU      p   u , I’ I’ p      k  ,   v  -. T pu  -

T       p  u u       qu p . T pp  -   u  p ju,   u v      xp p. W p  u    p up   u p  u    pu  u  u     I.

 p  ,         ,  k  u I’      . S      u  vv,    , I  v pv u  vp         puv      . I  u     pu  1.3    p . 88 8.3. Iran unable to supply liquefed natural gas. I   ’ -

u  v. S   I’     u  k  pv I  u  p    xp  vp





8. DETRIMENTAL EFFECTS ON THE GLOBAL ENERGY SUPPLY AND THE STABILITY OF THE GLOBAL ENERGY MARKET

 p  xp qu u  (LNG). I 2011, I vu  

8.1. World oil prices elevated by tensions with Iran. I   ’

LNG p (u    j upp  u   uk, u   pp).89 I  u    u   j     ,    pu v.

u- pv  v (137      9.3%   ’ ). I 2010—  u     E I A  p —I  OPEC’ -  pu   ’ - 86

 xp ( Su A  Ru).

I  p,      I    u

CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS Ou    pp    u       k — —       u 

(u     p  )   pu 

   u. W v v   k    -

jup    p. , ,   v   u , , u  

p,    u,   u qu. W v

v  k     p  ;   pu-

pp  px qu: W   jv    ? A -

   U S;   u  I’ I’      k 

  k  p  U S    v  jv?

87

Bu      p p. I    

A  ,  u  ? I   p      

k   S  Huz, u  u 35%   -u 

   x pp  x   k  

 , v  pu  p p   p. O p   

upuv? H   U S     xu v

2011   2012  I  u . I      

   p  I,  z  p  v -

EU    u     (Ju 1, 2012). Suqu,  I

qu? A  v    pp (     uu pp), 

 (u  F M A Ak S)   I u    k

v    I p      v, u

 S    pp . S,   p  v 

       .

 .

u , pu v  U S’ S’   u-up   Gu,   u Gu       I. 8.2. Long-term removal o Iranian supplies rom the global energy market.

Ev   EU      p   u , I’ I’ p      k  ,   v  -. T pu  -

T       p  u u       qu p . T pp  -   u  p ju,   u v      xp p. W p  u    p up   u p  u    pu  u  u     I.

 p  ,         ,  k  u I’      . S      u  vv,    , I  v pv u  vp         puv      . I  u     pu  1.3    p . 88 8.3. Iran unable to supply liquefed natural gas. I   ’ -

u  v. S   I’     u  k  pv I  u  p    xp  vp



A Primer on Sanctions Sanctions Against Iran, Including Potential Future Sanctions and Provisions or Liting the Sanctions

I. OVERVIEW OF SANCTIONS AGAINST THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN

1.3 Trade and investment ban imposed. I M 1995,  C 

p  U.S.      v  I, u  I E E P A (IEEPA). T   k   p  u   I

1. U.S. unilateral sanctions, 1979–1995. Du 1979–1984,   I    u, p   U S . Du  p, U.S.   p    pup— u I  upp  up   M E, u  Hz  H;   I’ v  p   I’ p  qu  v v  v v   ; ;      I I’’    v vp p p p     u u  (WMD), pu u p. T  U.S.   u  p : 1.1. Sanctions connected to the hostage crisis in 1979. I Nv 1979, P-

 C u       I   Exuv O      u “ u  I u  uuu  x     u,  p     U S.” 90 A  jv  jv   p p pu u      I I  v v , ,              p u  I  k I’   xp  vu   u. T  v  u I I’’  p  pu  u  -   Iq, u    u   up up.. 1.2. Iran named state sponsor o terrorism. I     S

Dp    p    Ju 1984,   I-p I-p  Hz v  L   U.S. M k  Bu,  O 23, 1983, k 241 M. T   I    p        p    I   U.S.     . T    u   U.S.   I   U.S.  xp  I,      U.S. xp  I  u v   WMD pp (“u u ”)    U S  v     I. T    u     v  pv    upp  I,  qu  U S  u  u   p  k  I. T     p —u   A Exp C A   A-  Ev D P A— pp  pv   u    . A u u ,  P   u  v  u      k qu   C, u C  vu u     v-p j       . 56 weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran

  I-upp P I up, H  I J,   I     Ru  p  v u p   Bu. T         I     U.S.    k I . T u, p  Exuv O 12957,  u U.S.    I’ , v      pv U.S.     I  v. IEEPA v  P  u  u       P           p      U S. Su        I  M 1995,       v  . T  u p u puu   Exuv O,  u 2010,  U.S.    u    u        v     . T    1999  2000,   pv    p- v  P M K. A u ,  Cpv I S, Au,  Dv A  u  P’’   u p      u  u   P up Exuv O. 1.4. Iran–Iraq Arms Non-Prolieration Act. I 1992,  I–Iq A N-P-

 A (P.L. 102-484)     p  I qu  j   (k,  , p ,  u)  Ru  C. T     u u  upp  uu   I,   pu  I’ v  p. T A pv     u u      WMD  “z u  p”  v v   I. O k   ,   xp,           u “z u  p.” T v  P    p  —    p   u —u      p     .

2. U.S. secondary sanctions sanctions to compel allies to isolate Iran: 1996–2006. I 1996, C    u  pvu U.S.     v     I  v    u weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran 57

A Primer on Sanctions Sanctions Against Iran, Including Potential Future Sanctions and Provisions or Liting the Sanctions

I. OVERVIEW OF SANCTIONS AGAINST THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN

1.3 Trade and investment ban imposed. I M 1995,  C 

p  U.S.      v  I, u  I E E P A (IEEPA). T   k   p  u   I   I-upp P I up, H  I J,   I

1. U.S. unilateral sanctions, 1979–1995. Du 1979–1984,   I    u, p   U S . Du  p, U.S.   p    pup— u I  upp  up   M E, u  Hz  H;   I’ v  p   I’ p  qu  v v  v v   ; ;      I I’’    v vp p p p     u u  (WMD), pu u p.

    Ru  p  v u p   Bu. T         I     U.S.    k I . T u, p  Exuv O 12957,  u U.S.    I’ , v      pv U.S.     I  v. IEEPA v  P  u  u       P           p      U S.

T  U.S.   u  p : 1.1. Sanctions connected to the hostage crisis in 1979. I Nv 1979, P-

 C u       I   Exuv O      u “ u  I u  uuu  x     u,  p     U S.” 90 A  jv  jv   p p pu u      I I  v v , ,              p u  I  k I’   xp  vu   u. T  v  u I I’’  p  pu  u  -   Iq, u    u   up up.. 1.2. Iran named state sponsor o terrorism. I     S

Dp    p    Ju 1984,   I-p I-p  Hz v  L   U.S. M k  Bu,  O 23, 1983, k 241 M. T   I    p        p    I   U.S.     . T    u   U.S.   I   U.S.  xp  I,      U.S. xp  I  u v   WMD pp (“u u ”)    U S  v     I. T    u     v  pv    upp  I,  qu  U S  u  u   p  k  I. T     p —u   A Exp C A   A-  Ev D P A— pp  pv   u    . A u u ,  P   u  v  u      k qu   C, u C  vu u     v-p j       .

Su        I  M 1995,       v  . T  u p u puu   Exuv O,  u 2010,  U.S.    u    u        v     . T    1999  2000,   pv    p- v  P M K. A u ,  Cpv I S, Au,  Dv A  u  P’’   u p      u  u   P up Exuv O. 1.4. Iran–Iraq Arms Non-Prolieration Act. I 1992,  I–Iq A N-P-

 A (P.L. 102-484)     p  I qu  j   (k,  , p ,  u)  Ru  C. T     u u  upp  uu   I,   pu  I’ v  p. T A pv     u u      WMD  “z u  p”  v v   I. O k   ,   xp,           u “z u  p.” T v  P    p  —    p   u —u      p     .

2. U.S. secondary sanctions sanctions to compel allies to isolate Iran: 1996–2006. I 1996, C    u  pvu U.S.     v     I  v    u weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran 57


A PR IM ER ON SA NC TI ON S AG AI NS T IR AN


   p. I p,   u U.S.    j  U.S.  

3. UN Sanctions to persuade Iran to negotiate seriously: 2006–2010.

v   I. Bu  , C    v   v      Eup    p     u   U S   u  I. W’    pu     u  p , px,   p   - M K. U K’ p,   I    p      I v, p    W’     upp    k I.

I 2002,  u  I’ u p   p,   v  I  u v u , u  p   uu. I 2003,  Eup u ( EU3: B, F,  G)   p  k    pu I  p   uu . . T     I  up uu   2003  ,    p  , u 2004–2005. I’   up  u  ku  u

2.1. The Iran Sanctions Act. I Auu 1996,  I   p up     

    I   A P   Nu N-P

  v,  j  ,  I S A (P.L. 104-172),  p.

 (NP)—  p u  p  I’ u   

I pv            P

  I A E A (IAEA). I   v  xp 

 v v   $20   vp I’    .

91

T  

 Eup  p u u  I’ u p   ,

 I S A     u I’    pu p  

u     uu     v (3.5–5%). T EU3 pp  

 I   vu     u   up  vp

ppv   U S    I’ xp.

  p. Hv, Hv,   v , v   I S A 

T u   I v  u,  Auu 2005,  vu

  v  I’  ,    I’  pu  vu

up   v  jv    EU3   U S  z

u u v    ,  v   p  I’ p.

I’ “  ”  ”      NP,  u    I’ 

A u ,  I S A  p   I u

   u. T   x   Mu Aj k

,    P u   ,      . T pv-

  I’ p  p     u p.

     v       v,   

I    v. Suqu,   2005– 2006,  U

,   pp u p.

S            u I  

2.2. Executive Orders 13224 and 13382. T Exuv O  u  Sp-

 2001 (   Sp 11 k)  Ju 2005, pv pv.. Exuv

,   u  I’ u p     IAEA   U N Su Cu.

O 13224 k  U.S.-    pv U.S. p   u

3.1. During 2006–2010, three UN Security Council Resolutions (1737, 1747,

    v pv upp    . Exuv O 13382

and 1803) p    I, p UN    

   p     pv upp  WMD p.

I  qup     u u  vp  u   p.

T Exuv O    I p,    Exuv O 13224  p   u A Q’     p. Hv,   , uu I  v     u Dp   u  O—    u    I u 

T pp   upp  Ru  C—   kp     I’ v    p v Su Cu . Rp     pv   UN u u u qu Su Cu p  u  up    u.

upp  v v   pu     u   u p. p  u E.O. 13382,   IRGC Q F— IRGC u  upp

4. Oil export-related multilateral sanctions to orce Iran to negotiate seriously on its nuclear program: 2010–2012.

I’ péé v u  Hz—     upp 

Du 2010–2012,  U S    pv    

u E.O. 13224.

p p  2010    I’ p   uu,  pu I 

A j xp,  I Rvu Gu Cp (IRGC)    

T P     p u    Exuv O,   v        .

    x-u  up (“P5+1”— U S, B, F, G, Ru,  C)  up  u. T U S, upp    ,  pu    u    I’ v    v pu I’    u .





   p. I p,   u U.S.    j  U.S.  

3. UN Sanctions to persuade Iran to negotiate seriously: 2006–2010.

v   I. Bu  , C    v   v      Eup    p     u   U S   u  I. W’    pu     u  p , px,   p   - M K. U K’ p,   I    p      I v, p    W’     upp    k I.

I 2002,  u  I’ u p   p,   v  I  u v u , u  p   uu. I 2003,  Eup u ( EU3: B, F,  G)   p  k    pu I  p   uu . . T     I  up uu   2003  ,    p  , u 2004–2005. I’   up  u  ku  u

2.1. The Iran Sanctions Act. I Auu 1996,  I   p up     

    I   A P   Nu N-P

  v,  j  ,  I S A (P.L. 104-172),  p.

 (NP)—  p u  p  I’ u   

I pv            P

  I A E A (IAEA). I   v  xp 

 v v   $20   vp I’    . 91 T  

 Eup  p u u  I’ u p   ,

 I S A     u I’    pu p  

u     uu     v (3.5–5%). T EU3 pp  

 I   vu     u   up  vp

ppv   U S    I’ xp.

  p. Hv, Hv,   v , v   I S A 

T u   I v  u,  Auu 2005,  vu

  v  I’  ,    I’  pu  vu

up   v  jv    EU3   U S  z

u u v    ,  v   p  I’ p.

I’ “  ”  ”      NP,  u    I’ 

A u ,  I S A  p   I u

   u. T   x   Mu Aj k

,    P u   ,      . T pv-

  I’ p  p     u p.

     v       v,   

I    v. Suqu,   2005– 2006,  U

,   pp u p.

S            u I  

2.2. Executive Orders 13224 and 13382. T Exuv O  u  Sp-

 2001 (   Sp 11 k)  Ju 2005, pv pv.. Exuv

,   u  I’ u p     IAEA   U N Su Cu.

O 13224 k  U.S.-    pv U.S. p   u

3.1. During 2006–2010, three UN Security Council Resolutions (1737, 1747,

    v pv upp    . Exuv O 13382

and 1803) p    I, p UN    

   p     pv upp  WMD p.

I  qup     u u  vp  u   p.

T Exuv O    I p,    Exuv O 13224  p   u A Q’     p. Hv,   , uu I  v     u Dp   u  O—    u    I u 

T pp   upp  Ru  C—   kp     I’ v    p v Su Cu . Rp     pv   UN u u u qu Su Cu p  u  up    u.

upp  v v   pu     u   u p. p  u E.O. 13382,   IRGC Q F— IRGC u  upp

4. Oil export-related multilateral sanctions to orce Iran to negotiate seriously on its nuclear program: 2010–2012.

I’ péé v u  Hz—     upp 

Du 2010–2012,  U S    pv    

u E.O. 13224.

p p  2010    I’ p   uu,  pu I 

A j xp,  I Rvu Gu Cp (IRGC)    

T P     p u    Exuv O,   v        .

    x-u  up (“P5+1”— U S, B, F, G, Ru,  C)  up  u. T U S, upp    ,  pu    u    I’ v    v pu I’    u . weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran 59




4.1 UN Security Council Resolution 1929. O M 17, 2010,    Bz

pv u   -  P Aj. T  upp 

 uk u    k    —   D-

up              

—   pp    u  vu      2009.

u  u   pp. S    “  ”

I u v  I  xp    uu (LEU, (LEU,    v 

I  p   k   pp “G Mv” 

3.5–5%) ,  u, v u  uu (  20%)    

   p,       pv   I’

u p    R R,  I   u   pu 

I- v.

p   pup. T Bz  uk v v v  v

O Sp 28, 2010, u  IEEPA u ( v), P O

 v  k  P O,    Ap 20       

u Exuv O 13553, k U.S.-   I   

u     “u u   u   

v  u  u  I z   v pv 

u u I’ - uu kp.”

92

W Bz  uk u    I   

   upp  u u. T O      u    U S. A    Exuv O  u,  qu  v-

D,       up   U.S. v. W  

   I  k    u  O   v 

v quk  p    UN Su Cu Ru (1929)  v 

U.S.-   pu,  u k  k    U S. T

u   UN        p  k 

P  p    v u     p 

I’  u, pv pp u   ,  u 

Exuv O u.

  I’ k. T U.S. xp      I  k

T CISADA ,  v,  pv    

   pu  p   u, u,   ju v   upp 

     v p I     I. CISADA

Ru  C,    u  u    u p.

 u   v U.S. v . CISADA    p   , u  P    p  pv   

4.2 CISADA Law. T U S       u   u

u      v v u.

  Ru 1929,  Ru, C,  v  u   p     pv   u. T U S    p

4.4. U.S. sanctions on Iran Central Bank. I  2011,   C xp

u  Ju 2010,       Cpv I S, Au,

 u     p I  p  UN u -

 Dv A (CISADA),         I 

     uu. M  C v   

  k   u   U S   k u -

I’ v  xp    p I  p. I D D 2011, p

  k I k.

     upp  — u   p  

A  v, CISADA   —   xp  

U.S.  —C    ( pv   FY2012 N D

 u     xp    I   p  U.S.

Auz A)  u    U S  k  u -

 — —   v v     p  1995  Exuv

  I’ C Bk. T pv qu  I’  vu u  

O 12957. T        P’   u  

u I’ C Bk   u p I   u  I . T

     u  u u  Exuv O.

P        u,  u , Eup u

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A u p  CISADA u qu   ( P

 v xp    j  U S    pu

u)   . Hv,       I S A,  CISADA

I’  xp . T     xp    p 

pv v  P    v,     

u  “ u” pu    I.

    v,   P    u  .

Au    u  qu  p   u,  P  u   p. I     

4.3 Sanctions against Iranian human rights abusers. Du 2010–2012, 

  u       xp,   

  C u    pu    I   -

    u  “ “ u”  pu  I.

p   pp. T      U.S. upp      I pp,  u  up u Ju–D 2009   pk  60 weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran


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4.1 UN Security Council Resolution 1929. O M 17, 2010,    Bz

pv u   -  P Aj. T  upp 

 uk u    k    —   D-

up              

—   pp    u  vu      2009.

u  u   pp. S    “  ”

I u v  I  xp    uu (LEU, (LEU,    v 

I  p   k   pp “G Mv” 

3.5–5%) ,  u, v u  uu (  20%)    

   p,       pv   I’

u p    R R,  I   u   pu 

I- v. O Sp 28, 2010, u  IEEPA u ( v), P O

p   pup. T Bz  uk v v v  v  v  k  P O,    Ap 20       

u Exuv O 13553, k U.S.-   I   

u     “u u   u   

v  u  u  I z   v pv 

u u I’ - uu kp.” 92

   upp  u u. T O      u  

W Bz  uk u    I   

 U S. A    Exuv O  u,  qu  v-

D,       up   U.S. v. W  

   I  k    u  O   v 

v quk  p    UN Su Cu Ru (1929)  v 

U.S.-   pu,  u k  k    U S. T

u   UN        p  k 

P  p    v u     p 

I’  u, pv pp u   ,  u 

Exuv O u. T CISADA ,  v,  pv    

  I’ k. T U.S. xp      I  k    pu  p   u, u,   ju v   upp 

     v p I     I. CISADA

Ru  C,    u  u    u p.

 u   v U.S. v . CISADA    p   , u  P    p  pv   

4.2 CISADA Law. T U S       u   u

u      v v u.

  Ru 1929,  Ru, C,  v  u   p     pv   u. T U S    p

4.4. U.S. sanctions on Iran Central Bank. I  2011,   C xp

u  Ju 2010,       Cpv I S, Au,

 u     p I  p  UN u -

 Dv A (CISADA),         I 

     uu. M  C v   

  k   u   U S   k u -

I’ v  xp    p I  p. I D D 2011, p

  k I k.

     upp  — u   p  

A  v, CISADA   —   xp  

U.S.  —C    ( pv   FY2012 N D

 u     xp    I   p  U.S.

Auz A)  u    U S  k  u -

 — —   v v     p  1995  Exuv

  I’ C Bk. T pv qu  I’  vu u  

O 12957.93 T        P’   u  

u I’ C Bk   u p I   u  I . T

     u  u u  Exuv O.

P        u,  u , Eup u

A u p  CISADA u qu   ( P

 v xp    j  U S    pu

u)   . Hv,       I S A,  CISADA

I’  xp . T     xp    p 

pv v  P    v,     

u  “ u” pu    I. Au    u  qu  p   u, 

    v,   P    u  .

P  u   p. I      4.3 Sanctions against Iranian human rights abusers. Du 2010–2012, 

  u       xp,   

  C u    pu    I   -

    u  “ “ u”  pu  I.

p   pp. T      U.S. upp      I pp,  u  up u Ju–D 2009   pk  weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran



4.5. July 1, 2012, EU embargo on oil. I  2011,   v  I


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Op   v   u  p I u . T   

x   u p, U.S.   Eup pp     

pp    p   u  v v xp u

p  U S    I   u. I Ju 2012,  Eup

 C Bk  u v.

U k  j p     p     pu  I

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,  k u   Ju 1, 2012. T EU     u   Nv 2011,   v-k I  k B p pp

Pv u  -u   N I O Cp (NIOC)   N I k Cp (NIC).

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Pp   j    vp vu  I, u I,  

   p  B’      I’ C Bk. I

vu v u        Ju Ju  1, 1, 2002. 2002. T T v v   pp pp     

p  ,  EU,   , u I’  xp  u 25%—

v u  xp   vu   Cp S, u   S Dz

u u  p pp I’ ,   v p   vu (u 70%   v u    vu). 94

  . •

T EU   p    v u  u U.S. ju ju . . T      p p   u u   p p  u u    EU EU  u     , u       u  U.S. . O

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Pp   j vu  I    , pu,  p  uu.

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Pu    u  v    v  I, u I v .

  ,      p u  EU        vk  xp ( EU u v v u xp)

T     vk     , u,   u

u  C Bk   u v.

     I S A  CISADA,     u     p  pv u   p  k 

4.6. Executive Order 13622 (July 30, 2012): B pu  I u  

u  v.

p pu. O Ju 30, 2012, P O u Exuv O 13622  pp vu    ISA —      k—     P  v: •

pu    pu pu  I;

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u    N I O Cp (NIOC)  N I Cp (NICO); 

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pu p pu  I.

5. Potential uture sanctions. Au    pv p  uu U.S.     I,    u     px    . Fuu  u u             ( xp, p  u v    p  ,          ). T    

T    pp   p u    u u  

   U S   Eup U     

 v  xp u S 1245   P.L. 112-81 ( xp  

  p. T v    u p upp   p.

“ u”  pu  I). T Exuv O k  u  U.S. pp  pv  upp  NIOC, NICO,  C Bk  I,  p U.S.-   p I  pu U.S. k   pu . T Exuv O u  vk     P’ .

5.1. Future sanctions being considered by the United States: S U.S. pk-

  u xp      U.S. k   k   u   I k (u    k   u  v   I k). 95 S pk     p

4.7. H.R. 1905: Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act of 2012.

  u "xp,"  u  u   pu  I

A Hu–S    j I  , H.R. 1905, p   

  u u  I' C Bk. I ,  u p  u

 C  Auu 1, 2012,  v    u  I S

U.S.   pv  pu  I  .96 I       

A. T  p  ISA  CISADA,  u  pv u qu

 u     U.S.  u  u p upp  p,

     p   H.R. 1905,   , ,  u

u    pk   k  k   pp  C   2013.

v,  ISA     p  I. T    u ISA   H.R. 1905 u:


5.2. Future sanctions being considered by the European Union: O O

15, 2012,  EU p     p  u   I,       weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran 63



4.5. July 1, 2012, EU embargo on oil. I  2011,   v  I

•

x   u p, U.S.   Eup pp     

pp    p   u  v v xp u

p  U S    I   u. I Ju 2012,  Eup U k  j p     p     pu  I

 C Bk  u v. •

,  k u   Ju 1, 2012. T EU     u   Nv 2011,   v-k I  k B p pp

Op   v   u  p I u . T   

Pv u  -u   N I O Cp (NIOC)   N I k Cp (NIC).

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Pp   j    vp vu  I, u I,  

   p  B’      I’ C Bk. I

vu v u        Ju Ju  1, 1, 2002. 2002. T T v v   pp pp     

p  ,  EU,   , u I’  xp  u 25%—

v u  xp   vu   Cp S, u   S Dz

u u  p pp I’ ,   v

  .

p   vu (u 70%   v u    vu). 94

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T EU   p    v u  u U.S. ju ju . . T      p p   u u   p p  u u    EU EU  u     , u       u  U.S. . O

Pp   j vu  I    , pu,  p  uu.

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Pu    u  v    v  I, u I v .

  ,      p u  EU        vk  xp ( EU u v v u xp)

T     vk     , u,   u

u  C Bk   u v.

     I S A  CISADA,     u     p  pv u   p  k 

4.6. Executive Order 13622 (July 30, 2012): B pu  I u  

u  v.

p pu. O Ju 30, 2012, P O u Exuv O 13622  pp vu    ISA —      k—     P  v:

Au    pv p  uu U.S.   

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pu    pu pu  I;

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u    N I O Cp (NIOC)  N I Cp (NICO); 

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5. Potential uture sanctions.  I,    u     px    . Fuu  u u             ( xp, p  u v    p  ,  

pu p pu  I.

       ). T    

T    pp   p u    u u  

   U S   Eup U     

 v  xp u S 1245   P.L. 112-81 ( xp  

  p. T v    u p upp   p.

“ u”  pu  I). T Exuv O k  u  U.S. pp  pv  upp  NIOC, NICO,  C Bk  I,  p U.S.-   p I  pu U.S. k   pu . T Exuv O u  vk     P’ .

5.1. Future sanctions being considered by the United States: S U.S. pk-

  u xp      U.S. k   k   u   I k (u    k   u  v   I k). 95 S pk     p

4.7. H.R. 1905: Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act of 2012.

  u "xp,"  u  u   pu  I

A Hu–S    j I  , H.R. 1905, p   

  u u  I' C Bk. I ,  u p  u

 C  Auu 1, 2012,  v    u  I S

U.S.   pv  pu  I  .96 I       

A. T  p  ISA  CISADA,  u  pv u qu

 u     U.S.  u  u p upp  p,

     p   H.R. 1905,   , ,  u

u    pk   k  k   pp  C   2013.

v,  ISA     p  I. T    u ISA   H.R. 1905 u:

5.2. Future sanctions being considered by the European Union: O O

15, 2012,  EU p     p  u   I,       weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran 63




 I     p   k . 97 T    v  p  

   v  u  I    u 

 pp    “I-O-F Z”  u  v   -

 p   j      U.S. C   

  x I u     .

98

I p,   u

v   p  I’  u    p. T EU   

 . T p  u       u u  

pv I A     Eup U u  pv I  u

p,    vu     U.S.   L,   

    p ( u v   p  I’  pp).

 pv  v . T ,     I   u

A,  EU      “U-u” k   I  

 u  vv u  p v   vu  

   EU k. F,  EU   34 I p  u  

    L.

     z. T EU   pv ppv ppv     ,     u  I’ u p  pu  “up   I k  p k.” 99

W u   u    , up,   pp  .

5.3 Possible uture multilateral sanctions. O   v   

1. Discretion on presidential presidential application and authority to issue waivers.

pp      p u      pu.

T A P         u   

F xp,      u      , 

u, u I. Hv, u    u  U.S.   I

  p     I. 100 S  I   

 v    ,  P’         

p v   , u      u  k  p.

 . S, v       u  P’ u,

A,  k    pu     xp  

 P  u    p      u   

  pu   qup  v  I,      v v 

  I,      U.S.      I. A  

I’  . A pp u      I  all all  

     I, pu  I S A,  u ,

 u,     u (UNSC u 1747  

pu   P  u      pp   

  p   u, u  u    -u ). R

p  I. Y , v  p  U.S.   I,  P

p ,  u , I pp    p,      

u k        k  .

101

     I (  j p , u   qup).

1.1. Authority under IEEPA/Executive Orders. A  p  

Exuv O, u u  u  IEEPA,      Exuv O

II. LIFTING THE SANCTIONS N  U S   UN Su Cu , up  , pu  p   I u            u  -

p     . I       ,  P u       p  I  Exuv O,          U S  I  .

  x  I’ . T   -- p. T    

1.2 Administration discretion in determination. I  ,  P 

    U S k    u   . I 2011–2012,

      u  p,    I 

        k u u     

,           v  . F

20%      IAEA  I’ u p; u   p p,

xp,   I   u Exuv O 13224  13382 u

     x        I’ 

v   v   P,       . A  U.S.

 uu   pu pup.

          k  

I v   u  U S S  k      pv  p      I,  U S    p

 ppp  pp . T,     p,  ,,  p    . 

     u  uu vpp ,   v I       u u     p v  .

1.3 Waiver authority. I   v   u v pv 

T p  u     p u   p p p

u   P  v pp       .





 I     p   k . 97 T    v  p  

   v  u  I    u 

 pp    “I-O-F Z”  u  v   -

 p   j      U.S. C   

  x I u     . 98 I p,   u

 .

v   p  I’  u    p. T EU   

T p  u       u u  

pv I A     Eup U u  pv I  u

p,    vu     U.S.   L,   

    p ( u v   p  I’  pp).

 pv  v . T ,     I   u

A,  EU      “U-u” k   I  

 u  vv u  p v   vu  

   EU k. F,  EU   34 I p  u  

    L.

     z. T EU   pv ppv ppv     ,     u  I’ u p  pu  “up   I k  p k.” 99

W u   u    , up,   pp  .

5.3 Possible uture multilateral sanctions. O   v   

1. Discretion on presidential presidential application and authority to issue waivers.

pp      p u      pu.

T A P         u   

F xp,      u      , 

u, u I. Hv, u    u  U.S.   I

  p     I. 100 S  I   

 v    ,  P’         

p v   , u      u  k  p.

 . S, v       u  P’ u,

A,  k    pu     xp  

 P  u    p      u   

  pu   qup  v  I,      v v 

  I,      U.S.      I. A  

I’  . A pp u      I  all all  

     I, pu  I S A,  u ,

 u,     u (UNSC u 1747  

pu   P  u      pp   

  p   u, u  u    -u ). R

p  I. Y , v  p  U.S.   I,  P

p ,  u , I pp    p,      

u k        k  .

     I (  j p , u   qup).101

1.1. Authority under IEEPA/Executive Orders. A  p  

Exuv O, u u  u  IEEPA,      Exuv O

II. LIFTING THE SANCTIONS N  U S   UN Su Cu , up  , pu  p   I u            u  -

p     . I       ,  P u       p  I  Exuv O,          U S  I  .

  x  I’ . T   -- p. T    

1.2 Administration discretion in determination. I  ,  P 

    U S k    u   . I 2011–2012,

      u  p,    I 

        k u u     

,           v  . F

20%      IAEA  I’ u p; u   p p,

xp,   I   u Exuv O 13224  13382 u

     x        I’ 

v   v   P,       . A  U.S.

 uu   pu pup.

          k  

I v   u  U S S  k      pv  p      I,  U S    p

 ppp  pp . T,     p,  ,,  p    . 

     u  uu vpp ,   v I       u u     p v  .

1.3 Waiver authority. I   v   u v pv 

T p  u     p u   p p p

u   P  v pp       . weighing beneits and costs o international sanctions against iran 65




A P u ,      u u,   v

Hv,  u    N K  k      2008 

  I’ u p ju v   p . A pv

x  p   u p,     p N K k

  I S A,   pv    I’ C Bk,

   upp  v. I 1982, Iq  k     

 v   P u u.

     —xp Au N. I     Iq  v p   xp  U.S. upp   I–Iq . I 2006,

2. Termination o the Iran Sanctions Act.

L  v    u  v up  p   u p

T I S A   p   U.S U.S..  . T    u p-

 2004. I  v  I u  v       qu

  I u        . T I S A 

     P5+1  u u, u   u   I u v 

  P   I       k: k: 1)   

 j, v      u —u    upp

 , vp,  qu  u xpv v, / p, p,  -

 Hz—  U.S. p u v I   .

  ; 2)   v   U.S.    p  ;  3) p     U.S.  u   . I       ,  P   u  k  -

4. Termination o the U.S. Trade Ban. T   U.S.   v  I   p  Exuv O. T

    pp    p  I. T G W. Bu 

  p u  p   P u  I E

u        pp   p  L,  L u v

E P A, puu   P       x

 WMD    U S  2004. (T        I

  U S   u  qu. I    I, u  

 L S A,   pv pp  I    L. I  uqu

 u  M 1995    u v  , u kp   

   I S A   pp  L .). A   

v   p.

P   pp pv    u k   pp   U.S. C,  u  u  p   .

3. Termination o the State Sponsorship Spons orship o Terrorism Terrorism Designation. Designation . M   U.S.  p  I  pu  p u  I’     p  . T P  u  v  u   -

4.1. CISADA codifes the trade ban. T CISADA       

I. T,  P    u       p  u   Exuv O   ,         U S  I. C u   p  u   CISADA pv    p u u     k      P.

 , uj   ppv.  v I    ,  P

4.2. Administration repeal. I CISADA   ,   P   -

u   C  I 1)   pv upp      

   u U.S.–I S.–I ,  P u       

p x ;  2)  u  U S    upp   

I   x. Hv,  P u v  ju u    

  uu. C    k u  v    j u  pp,

    I’  v. O  P u p   

u  P  v  j u—  C u qu  -

v  u,  u   Exuv O   . n

 j     v  v  kp I    . 3.1 Waiting period. W  P    k I    ,  u

 qu   C 45   v  u  v—  p qu              . 3.2 Relevant past experiences. A   pv   Exp A-

 A     ,  u’   upp      u,    u u   u p   p   u’  p.





A P u ,      u u,   v

Hv,  u    N K  k      2008 

  I’ u p ju v   p . A pv

x  p   u p,     p N K k

  I S A,   pv    I’ C Bk,

   upp  v. I 1982, Iq  k     

 v   P u u.

     —xp Au N. I     Iq  v p   xp  U.S. upp   I–Iq . I 2006,

2. Termination o the Iran Sanctions Act.

L  v    u  v up  p   u p

T I S A   p   U.S U.S..  . T    u p-

 2004. I  v  I u  v       qu

  I u        . T I S A 

     P5+1  u u, u   u   I u v 

  P   I       k: k: 1)   

 j, v      u —u    upp

 , vp,  qu  u xpv v, / p, p,  -

 Hz—  U.S. p u v I   .

  ; 2)   v   U.S.    p  ;  3) p     U.S.  u   . I       ,  P   u  k  -

4. Termination o the U.S. Trade Ban. T   U.S.   v  I   p  Exuv O. T

    pp    p  I. T G W. Bu 

  p u  p   P u  I E

u        pp   p  L,  L u v

E P A, puu   P       x

 WMD    U S  2004. (T        I

  U S   u  qu. I    I, u  

 L S A,   pv pp  I    L. I  uqu

 u  M 1995    u v  , u kp   

   I S A   pp  L .). A   

v   p.

P   pp pv    u k   pp   U.S. C,  u  u  p   .

4.1. CISADA codifes the trade ban. T CISADA       

I. T,  P    u       p

3. Termination o the State Sponsorship Spons orship o Terrorism Terrorism Designation. Designation . M   U.S.  p  I  pu  p u  I’     p  . T P  u  v  u   -

 u   Exuv O   ,         U S  I. C u   p  u   CISADA pv    p u u     k      P.

 , uj   ppv.  v I    ,  P

4.2. Administration repeal. I CISADA   ,   P   -

u   C  I 1)   pv upp      

   u U.S.–I S.–I ,  P u       

p x ;  2)  u  U S    upp   

I   x. Hv,  P u v  ju u    

  uu. C    k u  v    j u  pp,

    I’  v. O  P u p   

u  P  v  j u—  C u qu  -

v  u,  u   Exuv O   . n

 j     v  v  kp I    . 3.1 Waiting period. W  P    k I    ,  u

 qu   C 45   v  u  v—  p qu              . 3.2 Relevant past experiences. A   pv   Exp A-

 A     ,  u’   upp      u,    u u   u p   p   u’  p.



SUMMARY OF SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN, 1979 – PRESENT* * NOTE: This chart is a highly simplifed representation o the complex sanctions matrix. It is intended as a quick reerence tool and is by no means comprehensive.

Source

Date

UNSC#/US Law/ Exec Order #

Lit Requirement

Action

Objective

US Ca Cart rter er

11/1 11 /14/ 4/19 1979 79

Exec Ex ecut utiv ivee Or Orde derr 12 1217 170 0

Exec Ex ecut utiv ivee Or Orde derr

Blocking Bloc king Iran Iranian ian gover governmen nmentt propert property. y.

Pressure Iran to ree Pressure ree American can dipl diplomati omatic hostages.

US Carter

1/23/1981

Executive Order 12277

Executive Order

On to transer Iranian government assets.

US Carter

1/23/1981


Executive Order

Direction relating to establishment o escrow accounts.

US Carter

1/23/1981


Executive Order

Direction to transer Iranian assets overseas.

US Carter

1/23/1981


Executive Order

Direction to transer Iranian government assets held by domestic banks.

US Carter

1/23/1981


Executive Order

Direction to transer Iranian government assets overseas.

US Carter

1/23/1981


Executive Order

Direction to transer Iranian government nancial assets held by non-banking institutions.

US Carter

1/23/1981


Executive Order

Direction to transer certain Iranian government assets.

US Carter

1/23/1981


Executive Order

Non-prosecution o claims o hostages Non-prosecution and or actions at the United States Embassy and elsewhere.

US Carter

1/23/1981


Executive Order

Restrictions on the transer o property o the shah o Iran.

US Carter

2/26/1981


Executive Order

Suspension o litigation against Iran.

US De Dept pt.. o St Stat atee

1/19 1/ 19/1 /198 984 4

Iran Ir an ad adde dedd to to Sta State te Sp Spon on-sors o Terrorism List

Presidential authority, subject to congressional approval. I Congress blocks with a joint resolution, President can veto.

Restrictions on U.S. oreign assistance; a ban on deense exports and sales; certain controls over exports o dual use items; and miscellaneous nancial and other restrictions.

Limit Iran’s military capability and constrain Iran’s support o terrorism, weaken its eorts to export the revolution to regional countries.

US Re Reagan

10/29/1987

Executive Or Order 12 12613

Executive Or Order

Proh Pr ohib ibit itin ingg imp impor orts ts r rom om Ir Iran an..

Limitt Ir Limi Iran an’’s mi mililita tary ry ca capa pabi bilility ty an andd pu puni nish sh mi mililita tary ry actions, constrain Iran’s nancial support o terrorism organizations, limit Iran’s regional infuence.


*Note: This group o Executive Orders on 1/23/81 and 2/26/81 are result o the Algiers Accord and negotiat negotiations ions to to ree hostag hostages. es. Some not included here were implemented and revoked during this period.



Source

Date


Lit Requirement

Action

Objective

US Ca Cart rter er

11/1 11 /14/ 4/19 1979 79

Exec Ex ecut utiv ivee Or Orde derr 12 1217 170 0

Exec Ex ecut utiv ivee Or Orde derr

Blocking Bloc king Iran Iranian ian gover governmen nmentt propert property. y.

Pressure Iran to ree Pressure ree American can dipl diplomati omatic hostages.

US Carter

1/23/1981


Executive Order

On to transer Iranian government assets.

US Carter

1/23/1981


Executive Order

Direction relating to establishment o escrow accounts.

US Carter

1/23/1981


Executive Order

Direction to transer Iranian assets overseas.

US Carter

1/23/1981


Executive Order

Direction to transer Iranian government assets held by domestic banks.

US Carter

1/23/1981


Executive Order

Direction to transer Iranian government assets overseas.

US Carter

1/23/1981


Executive Order

Direction to transer Iranian government nancial assets held by non-banking institutions.

US Carter

1/23/1981


Executive Order

Direction to transer certain Iranian government assets.

US Carter

1/23/1981


Executive Order

Non-prosecution o claims o hostages Non-prosecution and or actions at the United States Embassy and elsewhere.

US Carter

1/23/1981


Executive Order

Restrictions on the transer o property o the shah o Iran.

*Note: This group o Executive Orders on 1/23/81 and 2/26/81 are result o the Algiers Accord and negotiat negotiations ions to to ree hostag hostages. es. Some not included here were implemented and revoked during this period.

US Carter

2/26/1981


Executive Order

Suspension o litigation against Iran.

US De Dept pt.. o St Stat atee

1/19 1/ 19/1 /198 984 4

Iran ad Iran adde dedd to to Sta State te Sp Spon on-sors o Terrorism List

Presidential authority, subject to congressional approval. I Congress blocks with a joint resolution, President can veto.

Restrictions on U.S. oreign assistance; a ban on deense exports and sales; certain controls over exports o dual use items; and miscellaneous nancial and other restrictions.

Limit Iran’s military capability and constrain Iran’s support o terrorism, weaken its eorts to export the revolution to regional countries.

US Re Reagan

10/29/1987

Executive Or Order 12 12613

Executive Or Order

Proh Pr ohib ibit itin ingg imp impor orts ts r rom om Ir Iran an..

Limitt Ir Limi Iran an’’s mi mililita tary ry ca capa pabi bilility ty an andd pu puni nish sh mi mililita tary ry actions, constrain Iran’s nancial support o terrorism organizations, limit Iran’s regional infuence.




Source

Date

US Bush

10/23/1992

US Cl Clinton


Lit Requirement

Action

Objective

Iran-Iraq Arms Nonprolieration Act (P.L. 102-484)

Presidential discretion to implement or to rerain rom imposing sanctions under it. Congressional action to terminate.

Oppose any transer to Iran or Iraq o any goods or technology, including dual-use goods or technology, wherever that transer could materially contribute to either country's acquiring chemical, biological, nuclear, or destabilizing numbers and types o advanced conventional weapons.

Limit Iran’s conventional military power by dissuading such arms suppliers (Russia, China) rom uture sales to Iran, limit Iran’s regional infuence.

3/15/1995

Executive Order 12 12957

Superceded by by CISDA. Congressionall repeal or Congressiona substantial amendment to the CISADA provision in order to place ull authority back in the hands o the President.

Prohibiting Certain Transactions With Respect to the Development o Iranian Petroleum Resources.

Force Iran to change domestic policies, pressure to end support or terrorism, weaken its infuence regionally.

US Clinton

5/6/1995


Executive Order


Strengthen Executive Order 12957.

US Clinton

8/5/191996

Iran Sanctions Act (P.L. 104-172)

Congressional action and Congressional Presidential concurrence. Or, president can waive application o Act.

To impose sanctions on persons making certain investments directly and signicantly contributing to the enhancement o the ability o Iran to develop its petroleum resources.

Reduce Iran’s oil and gas production potential to limit Iran’s unding to regional militant groups and developing its strategic capacity.

US Clinton

8/19/1997


Executive Order

Prohibiting Certain Transactions With Respect to Iran.


US Cl Clinton

3/14/2000

Iran No Nonprolieration Ac Act

Congressional re repeal or or substantial amendment to the CISADA provision in order to place ull authority back in the hands o the President.

Sanctions against entities that are determined to be involved in or supplying Iran’s WMD programs, incl. asset reezing, ban on transaction with the entity.

Pressure international entities (Russia, specically) or aiding Iran in nuclear prolieration and development o missile delivery systems.

US Bu Bush

9/30/2001

Executive Or Order 13 13224/ISA Extension Act o 2001


Blocking property and prohibiting transactions with persons who commit, threaten to commit, or support terrorism.

Prevent any U.S. citizen rom conducting business transactions with entities (including Iran) that have been judged to provide support or terrorist organizations organizations..

US Bush

6/28/2005


Executive Order

Blocking property o weapons o mass de- Halt Iranian nuclear prolieration and struction prolierators and their supporters, development o missile delivery systems. includes restrictions on Iranian shipping.




Source

Date

US Bush

10/23/1992

US Cl Clinton


Lit Requirement

Action

Objective

Iran-Iraq Arms Nonprolieration Act (P.L. 102-484)

Presidential discretion to implement or to rerain rom imposing sanctions under it. Congressional action to terminate.

Oppose any transer to Iran or Iraq o any goods or technology, including dual-use goods or technology, wherever that transer could materially contribute to either country's acquiring chemical, biological, nuclear, or destabilizing numbers and types o advanced conventional weapons.

Limit Iran’s conventional military power by dissuading such arms suppliers (Russia, China) rom uture sales to Iran, limit Iran’s regional infuence.

3/15/1995


Superceded by by CISDA. Congressionall repeal or Congressiona substantial amendment to the CISADA provision in order to place ull authority back in the hands o the President.


Force Iran to change domestic policies, pressure to end support or terrorism, weaken its infuence regionally.

US Clinton

5/6/1995


Executive Order



US Clinton

8/5/191996

Iran Sanctions Act (P.L. 104-172)


To impose sanctions on persons making certain investments directly and signicantly contributing to the enhancement o the ability o Iran to develop its petroleum resources.

Reduce Iran’s oil and gas production potential to limit Iran’s unding to regional militant groups and developing its strategic capacity.

US Clinton

8/19/1997


Executive Order

Prohibiting Certain Transactions With Respect to Iran.


US Cl Clinton

3/14/2000

Iran No Nonprolieration Ac Act

Congressional re repeal or or substantial amendment to the CISADA provision in order to place ull authority back in the hands o the President.

Sanctions against entities that are determined to be involved in or supplying Iran’s WMD programs, incl. asset reezing, ban on transaction with the entity.

Pressure international entities (Russia, specically) or aiding Iran in nuclear prolieration and development o missile delivery systems.

US Bu Bush

9/30/2001

Executive Or Order 13 13224/ISA Extension Act o 2001


Blocking property and prohibiting transactions with persons who commit, threaten to commit, or support terrorism.

Prevent any U.S. citizen rom conducting business transactions with entities (including Iran) that have been judged to provide support or terrorist organizations organizations..

US Bush

6/28/2005


Executive Order

Blocking property o weapons o mass de- Halt Iranian nuclear prolieration and struction prolierators and their supporters, development o missile delivery systems. includes restrictions on Iranian shipping.




Source

Date

US Bush

9/30/2006

UN


Lit Requirement

Action

Objective

Iran Freedom Support Act (ILSA) (P.L. 109-293)

Congressional action and Congressional Presidential concurrence. The act “codies” EO 12957, 12959, 13059 into law.

Codies sanctions against Iran, bans investment in Iran (amends ISA), provides nancial and political assistant or democracy promotion, sanctions against countries assisting Iran in nuclear prolieration and advanced weapons development, prevention o money laundering or weapons o mass destruction.

Force Iran to change domestic policies, punish Iran or support o terrorism, support domestic and oreign pro-democracy groups.

7/31/2 7/3 1/2006 006

Securi Sec urity ty Cou Counci ncill Res Resolu olutio tionn 1696

UN Resolution

Demands Iran suspend uranium enrichment, or ace possible economic, diplomatic sanctions.

Persuade Iran to cease nuclear prolieration..

UN

12/27/ 12/ 27/200 2006 6

Securi Sec urity ty Cou Counci ncill Resolution 1737

UN Resolution

Imposes sanctions on Iran or ailure to halt uranium enrichment.

Persuade Iran to cease uranium enrichment, permit expanded inspection o nuclear acilities by the IAEA and to reach a negotiated agreement on its nuclear program.

UN

3/24/2 3/2 4/2007 007


UN Resolution

Toughens sanctions against Iran, adds arms embargo.


US Bush

7/7/2007


Executive Order

Blocking property o certain persons who threaten stabilization eorts in Iraq.

Punish Iran’s attempts to exert infuence regionally.

UN

3/3/ 3/ 3/20 2008 08

Secu Se curi rity ty Co Coun unci cill Re Reso solu luti tion on 1803

UN Resolution

Tightens restrictions on Iran’s prolieration-sensitive nuclear activities, increases vigilance over Iranian banks, has states inspect cargo.


UN

9/27/2 9/2 7/2008 008


UN Resolution

Rearms earlier resolutions on Iranian uranium enrichment.


UN

6/9/ 6/ 9/20 2010 10


UN Resolution

Expands an arms embargo and tightening restrictions on nancial and shipping enterprises related to “prolierationsensitive activities.”

Pressure Iran’s civilian economy to persuade leaders to permanently to cease uranium enrichment, permit expanded inspection o nuclear acilities by the IAEA and to reach a negotiated agreement on its nuclear program.




Source

Date

US Bush

9/30/2006

UN


Lit Requirement

Action

Objective

Iran Freedom Support Act (ILSA) (P.L. 109-293)

Congressional action and Congressional Presidential concurrence. The act “codies” EO 12957, 12959, 13059 into law.

Codies sanctions against Iran, bans investment in Iran (amends ISA), provides nancial and political assistant or democracy promotion, sanctions against countries assisting Iran in nuclear prolieration and advanced weapons development, prevention o money laundering or weapons o mass destruction.

Force Iran to change domestic policies, punish Iran or support o terrorism, support domestic and oreign pro-democracy groups.

7/31/2 7/3 1/2006 006


UN Resolution

Demands Iran suspend uranium enrichment, or ace possible economic, diplomatic sanctions.

Persuade Iran to cease nuclear prolieration..

UN

12/27/ 12/ 27/200 2006 6

Securi Sec urity ty Cou Counci ncill Resolution 1737

UN Resolution

Imposes sanctions on Iran or ailure to halt uranium enrichment.


UN

3/24/2 3/2 4/2007 007


UN Resolution

Toughens sanctions against Iran, adds arms embargo.


US Bush

7/7/2007


Executive Order

Blocking property o certain persons who threaten stabilization eorts in Iraq.

Punish Iran’s attempts to exert infuence regionally.

UN

3/3/ 3/ 3/20 2008 08


UN Resolution

Tightens restrictions on Iran’s prolieration-sensitive nuclear activities, increases vigilance over Iranian banks, has states inspect cargo.


UN

9/27/2 9/2 7/2008 008


UN Resolution

Rearms earlier resolutions on Iranian uranium enrichment.


UN

6/9/ 6/ 9/20 2010 10


UN Resolution

Expands an arms embargo and tightening restrictions on nancial and shipping enterprises related to “prolierationsensitive activities.”

Pressure Iran’s civilian economy to persuade leaders to permanently to cease uranium enrichment, permit expanded inspection o nuclear acilities by the IAEA and to reach a negotiated agreement on its nuclear program.




Source

Date

US Obama

7/1/2010

US Ob Obama


Lit Requirement

Action

Objective

Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act o 2010 (CISADA, P.L. 111-195)

Congressional action and Congressional Presidential concurrence. President discretion to determine violations, and to consider oreign rms not in violation.

Expansion o sanctions under the Iran Sanctions Act o 1996, mandatory sanctions with respect to nancial institutions, imposition o sanctions on certain persons who are responsible or or complicit in human rights abuses, prohibition on procurement contracts with persons that export sensitive technology to Iran, harmonization o criminal penalties or violations o sanctions, increased capacity or eorts to combat unlawul or terrorist nancing, sanctions on rms that conduct any type o transaction with/in Iran’s energy sector.

Pressure Iran to change Iranian domestic policies, build a oundation or uture multilateral sanctions, pressure Iran to permanently cease development o nuclear weapons and support o terrorism, pro-democracy groups.

9/28/2010


Executive Order

Blocking property o certain persons with respect to serious human rights abuses by the government o Iran and taking certain other actions

Highlight and punish Iranian government’s human rights abuses, support opposition groups and civil liberties, pressure Iran to change domestic policies or encourage regime change, permanently to cease uranium enrichment and to reach a negotiated agreement on its nuclear program.

US Ob Obama

12/31/11

FY2012 Na National De Deense Authorization Act (NDAA, P.L. 112-81) 112-8 1)


Blocking property o certain persons with respect to serious human rights abuses by the government o Iran, provisions to sanction oreign banks that deal with Iran’s Central Bank, etc.

Compel Iran to compromise on its nuclear program.

US Ob Obama

4/29/2011


Executive Order

Blocking property o certain persons with respect to human rights abuses in Syria

Punish Iran’s attempts to exert infuence regionally and or supporting Assad government in Syria.

US Ob Obama

5/23/2011


Executive Order

Authorizing the implementatio implementationn o certain Strengthen CISADA, compel Iran to permanently sanctions set orth in the Iran Sanctions cease nuclear prolieration and to reach a negoti Act o 1996, as amended. amended. ated agreement on its nuclear program.

US Obama

11/20/2011


Executive Order

Authorizing zing the impositi imposition on o certain certain sanctions with respect to the provision o goods, services, technology, or support or Iran’s energy and petrochemical sectors.


Strengthen CISADA, compel Iran to permanently cease nuclear prolieration and to reach a negotiated agreement on its nuclear program.



Source

Date

US Obama

7/1/2010

US Ob Obama


Lit Requirement

Action

Objective

Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act o 2010 (CISADA, P.L. 111-195)


Expansion o sanctions under the Iran Sanctions Act o 1996, mandatory sanctions with respect to nancial institutions, imposition o sanctions on certain persons who are responsible or or complicit in human rights abuses, prohibition on procurement contracts with persons that export sensitive technology to Iran, harmonization o criminal penalties or violations o sanctions, increased capacity or eorts to combat unlawul or terrorist nancing, sanctions on rms that conduct any type o transaction with/in Iran’s energy sector.

Pressure Iran to change Iranian domestic policies, build a oundation or uture multilateral sanctions, pressure Iran to permanently cease development o nuclear weapons and support o terrorism, pro-democracy groups.

9/28/2010


Executive Order

Blocking property o certain persons with respect to serious human rights abuses by the government o Iran and taking certain other actions

Highlight and punish Iranian government’s human rights abuses, support opposition groups and civil liberties, pressure Iran to change domestic policies or encourage regime change, permanently to cease uranium enrichment and to reach a negotiated agreement on its nuclear program.

US Ob Obama

12/31/11

FY2012 Na National De Deense Authorization Act (NDAA, P.L. 112-81) 112-8 1)


Blocking property o certain persons with respect to serious human rights abuses by the government o Iran, provisions to sanction oreign banks that deal with Iran’s Central Bank, etc.

Compel Iran to compromise on its nuclear program.

US Ob Obama

4/29/2011


Executive Order

Blocking property o certain persons with respect to human rights abuses in Syria

Punish Iran’s attempts to exert infuence regionally and or supporting Assad government in Syria.

US Ob Obama

5/23/2011


Executive Order

Authorizing the implementatio implementationn o certain Strengthen CISADA, compel Iran to permanently sanctions set orth in the Iran Sanctions cease nuclear prolieration and to reach a negoti Act o 1996, as amended. amended. ated agreement on its nuclear program.

US Obama

11/20/2011


Executive Order

Authorizing zing the impositi imposition on o certain certain sanctions with respect to the provision o goods, services, technology, or support or Iran’s energy and petrochemical sectors.

Strengthen CISADA, compel Iran to permanently cease nuclear prolieration and to reach a negotiated agreement on its nuclear program.




Source

Date


Lit Requirement

Action

US Obama

7/30/2012


Executive Order

Authorizing Authoriz ing add additio itional nal san sanctio ctions ns wit withh respe respect ct Target Iran’s oil revenues, compel to permanently to Iran. cease nuclear prolieration and to reach a negotiated agreement on its nuclear program.

US Obama

8/1/2012

Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act o 2012 (H.R. 1905 (P.L. 112-158)

Congressional action to Congressional repeal or amend, or Administrationn certica Administratio tion. President discretion to determine violations, and to consider oreign rms not in violation.

Expansion o multilateral sanctions regime with respect to Iran, expansion o sanctions relating to the energy sector o Iran and prolieration o weapons o mass destruction by Iran, sanctions with respect to Iran’s revolutionary guard corps, measures relating to human rights abuses in Iran, sanctions with respect to human rights abuses in Syria.

Highlight and punish Iranian government’s human rights abuses, support opposition groups and civil liberties, pressure Iran to change domestic policies or encourage regime change, punish Iran or supporting Assad government in Syria.

US Obama

2/5/2012


Executive Order

Blocking property o the government o Iran and Iranian nancial institutions.

Target Iran’s overall economy, compel to permanently cease nuclear prolieration and to reach a negotiated agreement on its nuclear program.

US Obama

4/23/2012


Congressional action and Presidential concurrence. EO codied Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act (P.L. 112-158) into law.

Blocking the property and suspending entry into the United States o certain persons with respect to grave human rights abuses by the governments o Iran and Syria via inormation technology.

Punish Iranian government’s human rights abuses in regard to inormation technology, support pro-democracy groups.

US Ob Obama

10/9/2012


Executive Order

Authorizing the implementation o certain sanctions set orth in the Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act o 2012 and additional sanctions with respect to Iran.

Implements provisions provisions contained in the Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act o 2012. Highlight and punish Iranian government’s human rights abuses, support pro-democracy groups and civil liberties, pressure Iran to change domestic policies, punish Iran or supporting Assad government government in Syria.


Objective



Source

Date


Lit Requirement

Action

US Obama

7/30/2012


Executive Order

Authorizing Authoriz ing add additio itional nal san sanctio ctions ns wit withh respe respect ct Target Iran’s oil revenues, compel to permanently to Iran. cease nuclear prolieration and to reach a negotiated agreement on its nuclear program.

US Obama

8/1/2012

Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act o 2012 (H.R. 1905 (P.L. 112-158)

Congressional action to Congressional repeal or amend, or Administrationn certica Administratio tion. President discretion to determine violations, and to consider oreign rms not in violation.

Expansion o multilateral sanctions regime with respect to Iran, expansion o sanctions relating to the energy sector o Iran and prolieration o weapons o mass destruction by Iran, sanctions with respect to Iran’s revolutionary guard corps, measures relating to human rights abuses in Iran, sanctions with respect to human rights abuses in Syria.

Highlight and punish Iranian government’s human rights abuses, support opposition groups and civil liberties, pressure Iran to change domestic policies or encourage regime change, punish Iran or supporting Assad government in Syria.

US Obama

2/5/2012


Executive Order

Blocking property o the government o Iran and Iranian nancial institutions.

Target Iran’s overall economy, compel to permanently cease nuclear prolieration and to reach a negotiated agreement on its nuclear program.

US Obama

4/23/2012


Congressional action and Presidential concurrence. EO codied Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act (P.L. 112-158) into law.

Blocking the property and suspending entry into the United States o certain persons with respect to grave human rights abuses by the governments o Iran and Syria via inormation technology.

Punish Iranian government’s human rights abuses in regard to inormation technology, support pro-democracy groups.

US Ob Obama

10/9/2012


Executive Order

Authorizing the implementation o certain sanctions set orth in the Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act o 2012 and additional sanctions with respect to Iran.

Implements provisions provisions contained in the Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act o 2012. Highlight and punish Iranian government’s human rights abuses, support pro-democracy groups and civil liberties, pressure Iran to change domestic policies, punish Iran or supporting Assad government government in Syria.



Endnotes

1

F     U.S.     I,  K Kz,Iran Kz, Iran Sanctions Act , C R

Sv Rp  C RS20871, O. 2007, p://../p///RS20871.p p://../p///RS20871.p 2

Objective

Endnotes

11

Dv A, Pu B, A Sk,  . , “Pv I  G Nu Wp: Wp: C I Fuu

Nu Op,” Iu  S  I Su, M 5, 2012, p://-./up/-p/u/ p://-./up/-p/u/ USIP_p_5M2012-1.p

T   vv upp    . T u  I  upp    u, ju, 

 u  I v     u     S Hu. A  u

12

I p  u   u   v  . S Du J, “I H  Rp  9

“U S S   R   W T A A   U.S. I Cu   S S

Dp' D,” New York imes, imes, Sp. 11, 1998, p://../1998/09 p://../1998/09/11//---p /11//---p---

C  I,” p  J R. Cpp, D  N I. I    (M 10, 2011)

9-p-.?p=&=p

  U.S. S C  A Sv, Cpp xp   v    I      up p,p://-v..v/p/2011/03%20M/11 p://-v..v/p/2011/03%20M/11-11%20-%203-10-11.p -11%20-%203-10-11.p

3

I’ p  vu pu  u p, u     ,    p 6   J. 31, 2012,

F   I’ u  ,  State Department Country Report on Human Rights: Iran, M 24, 2012. A 

S Dp B  Nv. 21, 2011, S  S H  C  I’ “u “u u  u, pu

13 IAEA B  Gv, “Ip   NP Su A  Rv Pv  Su Cu

 ,     p  ””  u  “ pu  ” u ,

    I Rpu  I,” F. 24, 2012, p://.u.//p/IAEA_I_Rp_24F p://.u.//p/IAEA_I_Rp_24Fu2012.p u2012.p

Ru-

p://..v//p/p/p/2011/11/177613. 14 4

Av     p   U.S.  p    J–S I S Au 

S Dv A  A Sk, “I’ Nu Sk: A K  U.S. Dp,” Te Iran Primer , U.S. Iu  P,

J. 18, 2011, p://p.up.///Dv%20A p://p.up.///Dv%20A

Hu R A  2012,  p  S M 2012. T  u “p-” u u pu    pv I  qup     p  upp  u  (u u, 

15

,   uv qup). T v   Pp’ Mj  I   S Dp’    z,      I  p  W’    . S Ek S-Buj,

E P, O. 23, 2012.

Sanctioning Iran: Implications and Consequences, Ox R Gup, O. 2012, p 4, p://.x p://.xup up..uk/ ..uk/

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pu/_pp__p/__p__qu

Rpu  I,” M 25, 2012, p://.. p://../-p-052512.p /-p-052512.p

S H  O H, “Nu I:  Iu Ov N,” W Iu  N

IAEA, “Ip   NP Su A  Rv Pv  Su Cu Ru   I

F  u   u    (   pv)          p  p,  E S, ., Sanctions, Statecra and Nuclear Prolieration, Prolieration, C Uv P, 2012, pp 1–23.

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H S, “H Ru u M Supp  I  A W W I,”Guardian I,”Guardian,, M 6, 2012, p://.u-

F N I O, Pu P, u  u     v    “' k u I

I  p  v u upp   P I up H  -2011, u   u H ( Su up)  upp A’  Su pp,  u  v u I  u upp  H.

  uqu   I Rpu”  “u u u   u .” T u  u u

..uk//2012//06/-----

p,   u      pu upp,    I pp  I p   . “I

F  x u  I’ upp   ,  G Bu, “S Sp: I,” Cu  F

S   p p   R C,”National C,”NationalInterest , O. 3, 2012, p://.//pu-p/-p---7554

R, O. 13, 2011, p://..//-p-/p9362 p://..//-p-/p9362 18

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M L. O’Suv,  U.S. Dpu N Su Av  Iq  A,   xp   ,

S K D, “S A B A  I ,” Guardian Guardian,, M 28, 2012, p://.u..uk/

/2012//28/---

: “I   p  k    v ‘k’   k up     .” S R D. Bk, ., “I: T Nu C” T Cu  F R, Ju 2012, p.15. T U.S. u u Dp 

19

     u  p p v , Dv C, D G,  A Szu,        I k    . S u    “v   p,” 

  up  P. T v     pu     u        u   v p  uz  u p    u,    p  I' p

   p  p”  G, u  “v  p.” S E C, “M A’ S Cp,” CNN, Nv. 5,

z  v    p. Y , “I P M H Aj E P,” Ru,

2012, p://../20 p://../2012/11/05///- 12/11/05///--u.u/ -u.u/x. x.

O.7, 2012, p://.u. p://.u.//2012/10/07/u-- //2012/10/07/u---USBRE8950 -USBRE8950B320121007 B320121007

7

S   u x  I p,    u. A  pu p  F F, “     u     u   u. F,  … 

20

T u ,  v   p  P Aj’  p,  u u -

U.S. Dp  u P C, “Rk  U S    F I Dv C B  N Yk Uv S  L  ‘ T L  P  I S,’” ’” Sp. 12, 2012, p://.u.v/

     p  -vu    (    P5+1 u). S,   qu

p-/p-/P/1706.px

v v                  kk-k k        u u . . T   u u     

O u    v     uz   34%  Ju 2012. S L N, “I

  pp      p   . Ix   x.” S J R, “O W A S-

Lk S I I 33.5 P,” B N, Ju 8, 2012, p://..//20 p://..//2012-07-08/-k12-07-08/-k-

 P O Su D W I,” Nv. 7, 2012, p://../-----p--up://../-----p--u--/

---33-5-p--p.

8

Ru 1929. 9

21

T U.S. pu   up   I  17%, u   “k .” I.

22

I  v  u p    u  p  . T ISNA p   $10  -

T u   v, p   k  p   u    k   k  UN Su

F   u  I       u  u k  I’ u , 

u p  uxu  ,  u    u  ,       uu. T p   p   uxu , I’   p u   $50       I

J Z, K Kz, Sv H,  J G. “I: P M Sk A I’ Nu F,”

v,   u u pu    x v. S  k  u  k   u  up

C R Sv Rp  C R42443, M 28, 2012.

 k-k . S, Ru, “I    u p   ,” O 15, 2012. A, v    pv  u  36%   u uu, u p u   I  p.

10

N Su Av  D   2011: “T       . Cup  k 

S-Buj,, p. ., p 13. S-Buj

u  I,  v  I’ u . S  xp   v    u    I  qu k   qup    p, u   I  pu .” Sp

23

I     - pu  I ,  I   uk uk’ ’   p, , p 12.

  Bk Iu, Nv. 22, 2011.



Endnotes

1

F     U.S.     I,  K Kz,Iran Kz, Iran Sanctions Act , C R

Sv Rp  C RS20871, O. 2007, p://../p///RS20871.p p://../p///RS20871.p 2

Endnotes

11

Dv A, Pu B, A Sk,  . , “Pv I  G Nu Wp: Wp: C I Fuu

Nu Op,” Iu  S  I Su, M 5, 2012, p://-./up/-p/u/ p://-./up/-p/u/ USIP_p_5M2012-1.p

T   vv upp    . T u  I  upp    u, ju, 

 u  I v     u     S Hu. A  u

12

I p  u   u   v  . S Du J, “I H  Rp  9

“U S S   R   W T A A   U.S. I Cu   S S

Dp' D,” New York imes, imes, Sp. 11, 1998, p://../1998/09 p://../1998/09/11//---p /11//---p---

C  I,” p  J R. Cpp, D  N I. I    (M 10, 2011)

9-p-.?p=&=p

  U.S. S C  A Sv, Cpp xp   v    I      up p,p://-v..v/p/2011/03%20M/11 p://-v..v/p/2011/03%20M/11-11%20-%203-10-11.p -11%20-%203-10-11.p

3

I’ p  vu pu  u p, u     ,    p 6   J. 31, 2012,

F   I’ u  ,  State Department Country Report on Human Rights: Iran, M 24, 2012. A 

S Dp B  Nv. 21, 2011, S  S H  C  I’ “u “u u  u, pu

13 IAEA B  Gv, “Ip   NP Su A  Rv Pv  Su Cu

 ,     p  ””  u  “ pu  ” u ,

    I Rpu  I,” F. 24, 2012, p://.u.//p/IAEA_I_Rp_24F p://.u.//p/IAEA_I_Rp_24Fu2012.p u2012.p

Ru-

p://..v//p/p/p/2011/11/177613. 14 4

Av     p   U.S.  p    J–S I S Au 

S Dv A  A Sk, “I’ Nu Sk: A K  U.S. Dp,” Te Iran Primer , U.S. Iu  P,

J. 18, 2011, p://p.up.///Dv%20A p://p.up.///Dv%20A

Hu R A  2012,  p  S M 2012. T  u “p-” u u pu    pv I  qup     p  upp  u  (u u, 

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,   uv qup). T v   Pp’ Mj  I   S Dp’    z,      I  p  W’    . S Ek S-Buj,

E P, O. 23, 2012.

Sanctioning Iran: Implications and Consequences, Ox R Gup, O. 2012, p 4, p://.x p://.xup up..uk/ ..uk/

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pu/_pp__p/__p__qu

Rpu  I,” M 25, 2012, p://.. p://../-p-052512.p /-p-052512.p

S H  O H, “Nu I:  Iu Ov N,” W Iu  N

IAEA, “Ip   NP Su A  Rv Pv  Su Cu Ru   I

F  u   u    (   pv)          p  p,  E S, ., Sanctions, Statecra and Nuclear Prolieration, Prolieration, C Uv P, 2012, pp 1–23.

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H S, “H Ru u M Supp  I  A W W I,”Guardian I,”Guardian,, M 6, 2012, p://.u-

F N I O, Pu P, u  u     v    “' k u I

I  p  v u upp   P I up H  -2011, u   u H ( Su up)  upp A’  Su pp,  u  v u I  u upp  H.

  uqu   I Rpu”  “u u u   u .” T u  u u

..uk//2012//06/-----

p,   u      pu upp,    I pp  I p   . “I

F  x u  I’ upp   ,  G Bu, “S Sp: I,” Cu  F

S   p p   R C,”National C,”NationalInterest , O. 3, 2012, p://.//pu-p/-p---7554

R, O. 13, 2011, p://..//-p-/p9362 p://..//-p-/p9362 18

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M L. O’Suv,  U.S. Dpu N Su Av  Iq  A,   xp   ,

S K D, “S A B A  I ,” Guardian Guardian,, M 28, 2012, p://.u..uk/

/2012//28/---

: “I   p  k    v ‘k’   k up     .” S R D. Bk, ., “I: T Nu C” T Cu  F R, Ju 2012, p.15. T U.S. u u Dp 

19

     u  p p v , Dv C, D G,  A Szu,        I k    . S u    “v   p,” 

  up  P. T v     pu     u        u   v p  uz  u p    u,    p  I' p

   p  p”  G, u  “v  p.” S E C, “M A’ S Cp,” CNN, Nv. 5,

z  v    p. Y , “I P M H Aj E P,” Ru,

2012, p://../20 p://../2012/11/05///- 12/11/05///--u.u/ -u.u/x. x.

O.7, 2012, p://.u. p://.u.//2012/10/07/u-- //2012/10/07/u---USBRE8950 -USBRE8950B320121007 B320121007

7

S   u x  I p,    u. A  pu p  F F, “     u     u   u. F,  … 

20

T u ,  v   p  P Aj’  p,  u u -

U.S. Dp  u P C, “Rk  U S    F I Dv C B  N Yk Uv S  L  ‘ T L  P  I S,’” ’” Sp. 12, 2012, p://.u.v/

     p  -vu    (    P5+1 u). S,   qu

p-/p-/P/1706.px

v v                  kk-k k        u u . . T   u u     

O u    v     uz   34%  Ju 2012. S L N, “I

  pp      p   . Ix   x.” S J R, “O W A S-

Lk S I I 33.5 P,” B N, Ju 8, 2012, p://..//20 p://..//2012-07-08/-k12-07-08/-k-

 P O Su D W I,” Nv. 7, 2012, p://../-----p--up://../-----p--u--/

---33-5-p--p.

8

21

T U.S. pu   up   I  17%, u   “k .” I.

22

I  v  u p    u  p  . T ISNA p   $10  -

T u   v, p   k  p   u    k   k  UN Su

Ru 1929.

u p  uxu  ,  u    u  ,       uu. 9

F   u  I       u  u k  I’ u , 

T p   p   uxu , I’   p u   $50       I

J Z, K Kz, Sv H,  J G. “I: P M Sk A I’ Nu F,”

v,   u u pu    x v. S  k  u  k   u  up

C R Sv Rp  C R42443, M 28, 2012.

 k-k . S, Ru, “I    u p   ,” O 15, 2012. A, v    pv  u  36%   u uu, u p u   I  p.

10

N Su Av  D   2011: “T       . Cup  k 

u  I,  v  I’ u . S  xp   v    u    I  qu k   qup    p, u   I  pu .” Sp

S-Buj,, p. ., p 13. S-Buj 23

I     - pu  I ,  I   uk uk’ ’   p, , p 12.

  Bk Iu, Nv. 22, 2011.



Endnotes

Endnotes

24

38

T   p  u p  I u  xp. S  S  S H R C,

I   v v    p   j  u— Cp S   P Gu. I 

    2011  2.5   p  (p),  u 1.5 p,       $8  

  - u  v   . I   up     S  Huz,   p, 

 vu v qu. S “R S Ru  I Cu O Pu,” Ju 28, 2012. p:// ..v/

35%     v      u  90%  GCC  Iq -u  xp. T 

//2012/06/194200.. A p p     u 2.2 p  2010  1.2 p  Auu 2012. S

 u  p   x v  I up. Hv,  xp v u  v  u u 

S. C S. R  G. (.) C W, “T P  I: A  E  E E   Nu I,” Bp P C, O. 2012. W  U.S. Dp   u pu     55%   2.4 p 

 k,  p   . W Su A pu  ,    v   up,   u    p u u . S D Mup, “I'  v S  Huz? U, u N E,”

2011,  1 p  2012.T      , I    -  xp   ,  

Christian Science Monitor , D. 28, 2012, p://../W ./W/Bk/2011/122 /Bk/2011/1228/I---v 8/I---v-S--S--

 $100    . I       xp   I up  $5   ,  I  u 

Huz-U-u--

u u   k  vu. S U.S. Dp  u u  P C, “Rk  U S    F I Dv C B  N Yk Uv  S  L   ‘T L  P  I S,’” ’” Sp. 12, 2012, p://.u p://.u.v/p-/p .v/p-/p-/P/170 -/P/1706.px 6.px 25

F   I A.R. Lk   P N, “I  C Sk I S W ‘Juk  O,’” B

N, M 30, 2012, p://..//20 p://..//2012-03-29/---k-- 12-03-29/---k----juk---. --juk---. 26

S Rk G, “A N S  D  I’ Cu F,” New York imes, imes, O 1, 2012, p://..

/2012/10/02///--pu---.?_=0

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Op . J Cpp, S S C  I, J. 31, 2012.

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S U.S. pv v     I  u “pu ” ”   p p  v-

     u p p,     U.S.  . I   u I  ,   , “ p    []         v    I  z       .” H      “ qu   pp   v  pu     ’ pu ,”   , “vu    v    p  .” S K DYu DYu  S W, “Pu I O G  I S, U.S. O S,”Washin S,”Washington gton Post , J. 10, 2012, p://.p./ p://.p.//-u/----- /-u/------p-u--/2012/0 -p-u--/2012/01/10/ 1/10/

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O I’  u v,  Ru, “UPDAE 3-I R Pu  W S B,” O. 1, 2012, p://.

IQA0KJP_.

u.//2012/10/01/-u-p- u.//2012 /10/01/-u-p-USL6E8L1ASL20 USL6E8L1ASL20121001. 121001. S  Mu G , “I P  Cu ‘Mu’ O E,” Ru, Ju 1, 2012, p://.u.//2012/07/01/--INL6E8I106C201207 p://.u.//2012/07/01/--INL6E8I106C20120701 01

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 v   v "   . S Bzu D, “E  I Cz Aj,”

“Cp  H D  Su G,” I M Fu, O. 2012, p://../x/pu//

/2012/02/p/x.p

T     I pp   p p  p  u . I 2008,  up  60 I  u   k Aj' "-"  p, u   "  Los Angeles imes, imes, Nv. 10, 2008. I ,  M 2012, Aj  u  p     .. S L N, “Aj  j G B  S E Spu,” B, M 25, 2012, p://.

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imes,, Au. 12, 2012, p://..////0/63880 C H, “Du J Ov Bu  I,”Financial I,” Financial imes p://..////0/6388023-111-89-0014449.#xzz2BZ47

.//2012-03-25/j-------pu .//2012-03-25/j----- --pu.. .. I  u  pu     Aj  p  ,   ,  .

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Ak Fk, “U.S.–I  S Tv,”Te Tv,” Te Iran Primer , U.S. Iu  P, Ap 10, 2012, p://p.up./ p://p.up./

Bu W’   x-  u,   k p   C  Iq k,  u 

/2012/p/10/u----v-0

 I ,  uu  p u   u  I. S-Buj, p. ., p 14.

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Kz, “I S,” p. .

I G,” Wall Street Journal , Nv.23, 2012p://.j.//SB1000142412788732435200457813697360 p://.j.//SB10001424127887324352004578136973602198776. 2198776.

44

W   IRGC     pv u   , p IRGC   u  quk 

S , Hu Guv, W’ I   uk ?, Ju 9, 2012. p://../-/2012/07/09/-p://../-/2012/07/09/--

 I   pp         u   ,   pu  p    -

----uk-/#xzz208GjjS

. W  v p          I’ IRGC,  u      k  IRGC   p   . E S, ., Sanctions, Statecra and Nuclear Prolieration, Prolieration, C Uv

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P, 2012, p 20.

I pv 18%  uk' u   51% (  40%)   . I u  60%  uk'  xp 

  uk'    I  50%    $16   2011. J Pk  E Pk, “uk Sp G 

N H, “uk  I: G E R Dp W S,” Midd Middle le East East Brie Brie , N. 62, M 2012,

p://..u//pu//MEB62.p 45 33

Sv A, “S I uk' L Hp H  I,” Ru, Au. 16, 2012, p://.u.//2012/08/16/uk--INL6E8JGC8U20120816

IRGC-  v  qu  k   k , u u (I   j

   IRGC), k,  p. T IRGC  v  u  v    u    vu    1,260    ,    u    —v   pv —u u     v. T v u  u  C Bk,    I’

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F u x   UN xp p p,  p:// .. ..//UNSC/u-pxpp-06 //UNSC/u-pxpp-061212.p 1212.p

35

F xv    U.S.  p    P Gu     GCC,  S F R

 u v,  u  u     z u   IRGC. T     v    p   ppu. T IRGC   uv  vp    u    v,     I’  u v. O  R Q    IRGC,

C, “T Gu Su Au: Pp W  Gu Cp Cu,” Mj S Rp, Ju 19, 2012.

   pp  2011,  p  IRGC k  v      pv       v   p. A A, “I' Rvu Gu Sk O,” Midd O,” Middle le East East Quarterly Quarterly , W 2012,

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p://.u./3153/-vu-u-k-

“Wp “W p    U S p  2011    , v  j    P Gu .” “Ov

p    U S  $66.3   ,    -qu      k.” Su A u  $33.4    . S T Sk, “U.S. A S Mk up M  G Mk,” New York imes, imes, Au. 26,

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N K, “P  Gp  I.”New I.” New York imes, imes, Ju 16, 2012.

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F    IRGC    ,  A A, “H I A  Rvu Gu  I’

2012, p://../2012/0 p://../2012/08/27///u- 8/27///u-----66-3---20 ----66-3---2011. 11. 37

M E, “I' B M P,”Te P,” Te Iran Primer , U.S. Iu  P, p://p.u p://p.up./u p./u//-

--p

E,” E ,” p://..//-- p://..//---p//--- -p//----/----/---vu-u---/. vu-u ---/. AEI, O. 22, 2007. F -p         IRGC    I   I,  Kz, K, Te Warriors o Islam: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard . Wv P, 1993. O “ ,”     I C Bk, M B,    k        ,  S-Buj, p. ., p 14.



Endnotes

Endnotes

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38

T   p  u p  I u  xp. S  S  S H R C,

I   v v    p   j  u— Cp S   P Gu. I 

    2011  2.5   p  (p),  u 1.5 p,       $8  

  - u  v   . I   up     S  Huz,   p, 

 vu v qu. S “R S Ru  I Cu O Pu,” Ju 28, 2012. p:// ..v/

35%     v      u  90%  GCC  Iq -u  xp. T 

//2012/06/194200.. A p p     u 2.2 p  2010  1.2 p  Auu 2012. S

 u  p   x v  I up. Hv,  xp v u  v  u u 

S. C S. R  G. (.) C W, “T P  I: A  E  E E   Nu I,” Bp P C, O. 2012. W  U.S. Dp   u pu     55%   2.4 p 

 k,  p   . W Su A pu  ,    v   up,   u    p u u . S D Mup, “I'  v S  Huz? U, u N E,”

2011,  1 p  2012.T      , I    -  xp   ,  

Christian Science Monitor , D. 28, 2012, p://../W ./W/Bk/2011/122 /Bk/2011/1228/I---v 8/I---v-S--S--

 $100    . I       xp   I up  $5   ,  I  u 

Huz-U-u--

u u   k  vu. S U.S. Dp  u u  P C, “Rk  U S    F I Dv C B  N Yk Uv  S  L   ‘T L  P  I S,’” ’” Sp. 12, 2012, p://.u p://.u.v/p-/p .v/p-/p-/P/170 -/P/1706.px 6.px 25

F   I A.R. Lk   P N, “I  C Sk I S W ‘Juk  O,’” B

N, M 30, 2012, p://..//20 p://..//2012-03-29/---k-- 12-03-29/---k----juk---. --juk---. 26

S Rk G, “A N S  D  I’ Cu F,” New York imes, imes, O 1, 2012, p://..

/2012/10/02///--pu---.?_=0

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Op . J Cpp, S S C  I, J. 31, 2012.

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S U.S. pv v     I  u “pu ” ”   p p  v-

     u p p,     U.S.  . I   u I  ,   , “ p    []         v    I  z       .” H      “ qu   pp   v  pu     ’ pu ,”   , “vu    v    p  .” S K DYu DYu  S W, “Pu I O G  I S, U.S. O S,”Washin S,”Washington gton Post , J. 10, 2012, p://.p./ p://.p.//-u/----- /-u/------p-u--/2012/0 -p-u--/2012/01/10/ 1/10/

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O I’  u v,  Ru, “UPDAE 3-I R Pu  W S B,” O. 1, 2012, p://.

IQA0KJP_.

u.//2012/10/01/-u-p- u.//2012 /10/01/-u-p-USL6E8L1ASL20 USL6E8L1ASL20121001. 121001. S  Mu G , “I P  Cu ‘Mu’ O E,” Ru, Ju 1, 2012, p://.u.//2012/07/01/--INL6E8I106C201207 p://.u.//2012/07/01/--INL6E8I106C20120701 01

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 v   v "   . S Bzu D, “E  I Cz Aj,”

“Cp  H D  Su G,” I M Fu, O. 2012, p://../x/pu//

/2012/02/p/x.p

T     I pp   p p  p  u . I 2008,  up  60 I  u   k Aj' "-"  p, u   "  Los Angeles imes, imes, Nv. 10, 2008. I ,  M 2012, Aj  u  p     .. S L N, “Aj  j G B  S E Spu,” B, M 25, 2012, p://.

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imes, Au. 12, 2012, p://..////0/63880 C H, “Du J Ov Bu  I,”Financial I,” Financial imes, p://..////0/6388023-111-89-0014449.#xzz2BZ47

.//2012-03-25/j-------pu .//2012-03-25/j----- --pu.. .. I  u  pu     Aj  p  ,   ,  .

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Ak Fk, “U.S.–I  S Tv,”Te Tv,” Te Iran Primer , U.S. Iu  P, Ap 10, 2012, p://p.up./ p://p.up./

Bu W’   x-  u,   k p   C  Iq k,  u 

/2012/p/10/u----v-0

 I ,  uu  p u   u  I. S-Buj, p. ., p 14.

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43

Kz, “I S,” p. .

I G,” Wall Street Journal , Nv.23, 2012p://.j.//SB1000142412788732435200457813697360 p://.j.//SB10001424127887324352004578136973602198776. 2198776.

44

W   IRGC     pv u   , p IRGC   u  quk 

S , Hu Guv, W’ I   uk ?, Ju 9, 2012. p://../-/2012/07/09/-p://../-/2012/07/09/--

 I   pp         u   ,   pu  p    -

----uk-/#xzz208GjjS

. W  v p          I’ IRGC,  u      k  IRGC   p   . E S, ., Sanctions, Statecra and Nuclear Prolieration, Prolieration, C Uv

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P, 2012, p 20.

I pv 18%  uk' u   51% (  40%)   . I u  60%  uk'  xp 

  uk'    I  50%    $16   2011. J Pk  E Pk, “uk Sp G 

N H, “uk  I: G E R Dp W S,” Midd Middle le East East Brie Brie , N. 62, M 2012,

p://..u//pu//MEB62.p 45 33

Sv A, “S I uk' L Hp H  I,” Ru, Au. 16, 2012, p://.u.//2012/08/16/uk--INL6E8JGC8U20120816

IRGC-  v  qu  k   k , u u (I   j

   IRGC), k,  p. T IRGC  v  u  v    u    vu    1,260    ,    u    —v   pv —u u     v. T v u  u  C Bk,    I’

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F u x   UN xp p p,  p:// .. ..//UNSC/u-pxpp-06 //UNSC/u-pxpp-061212.p 1212.p

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F xv    U.S.  p    P Gu     GCC,  S F R

 u v,  u  u     z u   IRGC. T     v    p   ppu. T IRGC   uv  vp    u    v,     I’  u v. O  R Q    IRGC,

C, “T Gu Su Au: Pp W  Gu Cp Cu,” Mj S Rp, Ju 19, 2012.

   pp  2011,  p  IRGC k  v      pv       v   p. A A, “I' Rvu Gu Sk O,” Midd O,” Middle le East East Quarterly Quarterly , W 2012,

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p://.u./3153/-vu-u-k-

“Wp “W p    U S p  2011    , v  j    P Gu .” “Ov

p    U S  $66.3   ,    -qu      k.” Su A u  $33.4    . S T Sk, “U.S. A S Mk up M  G Mk,” New York imes, imes, Au. 26,

46

N K, “P  Gp  I.”New I.” New York imes, imes, Ju 16, 2012.

47

F    IRGC    ,  A A, “H I A  Rvu Gu  I’

2012, p://../2012/0 p://../2012/08/27///u- 8/27///u-----66-3---20 ----66-3---2011. 11. 37

M E, “I' B M P,”Te P,” Te Iran Primer , U.S. Iu  P, p://p.u p://p.up./u p./u//-

--p

E,” E ,” p://..//-- p://..//---p//--- -p//----/----/---vu-u---/. vu-u ---/. AEI, O. 22, 2007. F -p         IRGC    I   I,  Kz, K, Te Warriors o Islam: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard . Wv P, 1993. O “ ,”     I C Bk, M B,    k        ,  S-Buj, p. ., p 14.



Endnotes

Endnotes

48

Huz,   35%  p- u  p. S Gu Cz, “B  P S  C W  O,” Financialimes, imes, Nv. 4, 2012, p://..////0/397 p://..////0/3978-1-112-81-0 8-1-112-81-001440.#xzz2BZ 01440.#xzz2BZYJIv YJIv

M A S,  p   , xp   “p   uu      u 

     ,”  p  R F. W   New York imes, imes, “I’ Gv D Hu uu  F N V S ’09 P,” M 2, 2012.

62

P    (..,  Iq    1990) v  upp v  u   u u

49

I u    p    v   Sup L K p   2013 p . I  u  k      ,     . R      u

u   u   . S ,      vv u  pp   I  .

  , p  ,        p  k   p  p   U

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S. N S, “R   Lv: I D P   P E  2013,” C C 

I M 2012,  S  W W Ik F u (SWIF)  I k    ,     p, u p I'   p , u -

M E Su, Ju 2012.

. “P  SWIF  xp I k Su,” Ru, M 15, 2012. p://.u.//2012/03/15/ p://.u.//2012/03/15/ u-u--USBRE82E15M20120 u-u-- USBRE82E15M20120315. 315. S , Nj Bz “I I, S k     Sk,” T W

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J B, “S “S’’ U : Opp,”Washin Opp,” Washington gton Post , Au. 15, 2012.

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S u   v px  I’  vp,        k

P, Sp. 4, 2012 p://.p.//_/-k----k/2012/09/04/07 p://.p.//_/-k----k/2012/09/04/072-622-62111-8253-349570650_.

pu  , , ,   . “S  I Au  E, F

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A,” M N A v  J Dk, O. 14, 2012.

 p u     v I z. S Muz Hu, “S S: F Iq  I,” Ajz,

I I,  p  p  , u  k   , v kk,  -uquu , u  k, v

O. 3, 2012, p://.jz./p/p/2012/10/201210373854792889. p://.jz./p/p/2012/10/201210373854792889. 52

T p   I z       I’  p-A u ppu. S S

L, “I S Sk A-US S,” Ajz, Nv. 5, 2012.

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A,   p         I’ u,  1996  2006, u  70% up. P v

  S  P  I   “ j   p  up  ” u  u-   x 

 j  v       . S-Buj, p. . p 19.

p…  u, u 100 p v  pu up     . S-Buj, p. ., p 13.

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Gv A, “F   G Mv L,” Te Iran Primer , U.S. Iu  P, O. 11, 2011, p://p.up. p://p.up.

I’  pu  p   u        . A,  

Au T Eup U   U S v xp  xp     I,   p

//2011//11/--v-

u v  p v  p ,   pu    u  . T  u      u   k k,  up,     uu u u    x u  -

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Mu B,  Gv   C Bk  I (CBI),    CBI       

p. S PBS F, “Dp P 1: T Dpp  Lv Du,” Nv. 8, 2012, p://.p.//p/-

. I S, “E S  I: A D  W,” G R, Au. 6, 2012, p://../ -------/32222

/uu/2012/11/-k-p-1-- /uu /2012/11/-k-p-1--pp--v-u pp--v-u.#xzz2BjzNU76. .#xzz2BjzNU76.A,  p

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G C Hufu . ., EconomicSanctions Reconsidere Reconsidered d , P Iu  I E, U Bk P, 2007.

 v x   p    v     ,    u    - ,    pp. I  p  “vu  A  Eup k    vv     I,    pu  vv.” T u Dp    u p   W k   u  I. O W p   , “Bk   ,  ’       u  I.”

F     qu  k     I,  T I Pj’  pp,Weigh pp,Weighing ing the Benefts and Costs o Military Action Against Iran, Sp. 2012, .pj./ .pj./p p

S T Ek, “I S k Uxp   M Ip,” New York imes, imes, Nv. 2, 2012, p:// ..

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Cpp , p. .

/2012/11/03///--k----p. /2012/11/03/ //--k----p.?p= ?p= . I  p v u  p    v      p   I  

pu  U.S. v   k  . S T Ek, “I’ A A F S A F 58

x   p   u  p://..//p/-.p

U U.S. S,” New York imes, imes, Ju 14, 2012.

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I Ju 2012, I   A V , “I     pv  u   S 

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u u  Dp, O  F A C, “C Gu: Hu A  I,” Au. 13, 2012.

Eup  I’  xp. S “I Iu N T  S  Huz,” Te National , J. 5, 2012. A A Fv,  v

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I     B quk  D 2003, OFAC u  k ,   90- p,   z 

  I’ IRGC : "T IRGC' v  v      [I–Iq]   p   S  Huz    v   p    p u.” S “I' p p L  D  Bk  S  Huz,”

v  u  u   pp p.

A, Ju 14, 2012.

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Huz.” S p, A Buj,  “   v    xp  u  S  Huz” 

60

I’ p   qu MP I A-M: "T    pp   N Su 

I 1995— p  pp  I u  v  u   j A p—C Cp.  

  I  vp    I’ S I,   P Gu . C    v up  pj  ,   1995   v  (  p      pp)  p   U S.

F P   P    k   k     u  v  I.” H u, “T    vp      Eup U'     I Rpu  I." Ru, “I D B  Bk Huz  Gu O k,” Ju 2, 2012, p://.u.//2012/07/02/u--p://.u.//2012/07/02/u---

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uz-USBRE8610R920120702

  u u.

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T xp      I S A    “p u”—u     

v  p’ v  I   p p    x  vp u  I  k

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Kz, “I S A,” p. .

2.59       upp,  v    500,000    p    Cup),  p  p  . C    ,    p  u p   M E, xp

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“T L Iv: I S Bu  W C   Mx B,”Economist B,” Economist , Au. 18, 2012,

    k  p up  Gu  upp. F  U.S.     p. “Ev  u p   z,

p://..//21560614

W  U S   -    pu u    (u  p v    

’    u u vu   p k,”  Dv G,   G G S,  u. O p   v,  ,       p k    uu  p   p u.

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 pv p v,  U.S.  k        u u k p u   S 

 U.S.  v  O 2012   p. I Auu 2012, C k  u v  p


T   C–I  p        W’ x- k . C v


Endnotes

Endnotes

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Huz,   35%  p- u  p. S Gu Cz, “B  P S  C W  O,” Financialimes, imes, Nv. 4, 2012, p://..////0/397 p://..////0/3978-1-112-81-0 8-1-112-81-001440.#xzz2BZ 01440.#xzz2BZYJIv YJIv

M A S,  p   , xp   “p   uu      u 

     ,”  p  R F. W   New York imes, imes, “I’ Gv D Hu uu  F N V S ’09 P,” M 2, 2012.

62

P    (..,  Iq    1990) v  upp v  u   u u

49

I u    p    v   Sup L K p   2013 p . I  u  k      ,     . R      u

u   u   . S ,      vv u  pp   I  .

  , p  ,        p  k   p  p   U

63

S. N S, “R   Lv: I D P   P E  2013,” C C 

I M 2012,  S  W W Ik F u (SWIF)  I k    ,     p, u p I'   p , u -

M E Su, Ju 2012.

. “P  SWIF  xp I k Su,” Ru, M 15, 2012. p://.u.//2012/03/15/ p://.u.//2012/03/15/ u-u--USBRE82E15M20120 u-u-- USBRE82E15M20120315. 315. S , Nj Bz “I I, S k     Sk,” T W

50

J B, “S “S’’ U : Opp,”Washin Opp,” Washington gton Post , Au. 15, 2012.

51

S u   v px  I’  vp,        k

P, Sp. 4, 2012 p://.p.//_/-k----k/2012/09/04/07 p://.p.//_/-k----k/2012/09/04/072-622-62111-8253-349570650_.

pu  , , ,   . “S  I Au  E, F

64

A,” M N A v  J Dk, O. 14, 2012.

 p u     v I z. S Muz Hu, “S S: F Iq  I,” Ajz,

I I,  p  p  , u  k   , v kk,  -uquu , u  k, v

O. 3, 2012, p://.jz./p/p/2012/10/201210373854792889. p://.jz./p/p/2012/10/201210373854792889. 52

T p   I z       I’  p-A u ppu. S S

L, “I S Sk A-US S,” Ajz, Nv. 5, 2012.

65

A,   p         I’ u,  1996  2006, u  70% up. P v

  S  P  I   “ j   p  up  ” u  u-   x 

 j  v       . S-Buj, p. . p 19.

p…  u, u 100 p v  pu up     . S-Buj, p. ., p 13.

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Gv A, “F   G Mv L,” Te Iran Primer , U.S. Iu  P, O. 11, 2011, p://p.up. p://p.up.

I’  pu  p   u        . A,  

Au T Eup U   U S v xp  xp     I,   p

//2011//11/--v-

u v  p v  p ,   pu    u  . T  u      u   k k,  up,     uu u u    x u  -

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Mu B,  Gv   C Bk  I (CBI),    CBI       

p. S PBS F, “Dp P 1: T Dpp  Lv Du,” Nv. 8, 2012, p://.p.//p/-

. I S, “E S  I: A D  W,” G R, Au. 6, 2012, p://../ -------/32222

/uu/2012/11/-k-p-1-- /uu /2012/11/-k-p-1--pp--v-u pp--v-u.#xzz2BjzNU76. .#xzz2BjzNU76.A,  p

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G C Hufu . ., EconomicSanctions Reconsidere Reconsidered d , P Iu  I E, U Bk P, 2007.

 v x   p    v     ,    u    - ,    pp. I  p  “vu  A  Eup k    vv     I,    pu  vv.” T u Dp    u p   W k   u  I. O W p   , “Bk   ,  ’       u  I.”

F     qu  k     I,  T I Pj’  pp,Weigh pp,Weighing ing the Benefts and Costs o Military Action Against Iran, Sp. 2012, .pj./ .pj./p p

S T Ek, “I S k Uxp   M Ip,” New York imes, imes, Nv. 2, 2012, p:// ..

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Cpp , p. .

/2012/11/03///--k----p. /2012/11/03/ //--k----p.?p= ?p= . I  p v u  p    v      p   I  

pu  U.S. v   k  . S T Ek, “I’ A A F S A F 58

x   p   u  p://..//p/-.p

U U.S. S,” New York imes, imes, Ju 14, 2012.

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I Ju 2012, I   A V , “I     pv  u   S 

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u u  Dp, O  F A C, “C Gu: Hu A  I,” Au. 13, 2012.

Eup  I’  xp. S “I Iu N T  S  Huz,” Te National , J. 5, 2012. A A Fv,  v

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I     B quk  D 2003, OFAC u  k ,   90- p,   z 

  I’ IRGC : "T IRGC' v  v      [I–Iq]   p   S  Huz    v   p    p u.” S “I' p p L  D  Bk  S  Huz,”

v  u  u   pp p.

A, Ju 14, 2012.

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Huz.” S p, A Buj,  “   v    xp  u  S  Huz” 

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I’ p   qu MP I A-M: "T    pp   N Su 

I 1995— p  pp  I u  v  u   j A p—C Cp.  

  I  vp    I’ S I,   P Gu . C    v up  pj  ,   1995   v  (  p      pp)  p   U S.

F P   P    k   k     u  v  I.” H u, “T    vp      Eup U'     I Rpu  I." Ru, “I D B  Bk Huz  Gu O k,” Ju 2, 2012, p://.u.//2012/07/02/u--p://.u.//2012/07/02/u---

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uz-USBRE8610R920120702

  u u.

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T xp      I S A    “p u”—u     

v  p’ v  I   p p    x  vp u  I  k

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Kz, “I S A,” p. .

2.59       upp,  v    500,000    p    Cup),  p  p  . C    ,    p  u p   M E, xp

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“T L Iv: I S Bu  W C   Mx B,”Economist B,” Economist , Au. 18, 2012,

    k  p up  Gu  upp. F  U.S.     p. “Ev  u p   z,

p://..//21560614

W  U S   -    pu u    (u  p v    

’    u u vu   p k,”  Dv G,   G G S,  u. O p   v,  ,       p k    uu  p   p u.

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 pv p v,  U.S.  k        u u k p u   S 

 U.S.  v  O 2012   p. I Auu 2012, C k  u v  p

T   C–I  p        W’ x- k . C v



Endnotes

Endnotes

I k      u B,  A    k. C pu u  Challenge,” R D. Bk, ., Cu  F R P, 2012. ppx 20%  I’  xp, Iran: Te Nuclear Challenge,”

S Fu Bz  Spu S, “A Cu-Ex Cu-Ex W C  I” R F Eup, O. 5, 2012, p://..//---u-/24729954.

A,  pu  R S, D  USA E   N F  Cu   p v, O. 19, 2012. O p  A  v v  . Mu  A   u  v   upp    , 

85

 k  pu     vp. Mj I u, u I, Jp,  Su K, v

1,000 A u  A  j ’v   I. S     I , A v    u

p   U.S.     2011. Ov   , pvu j EU pu  I u , 

,  up. P   , H, 75    I ,   v u NAO ,

-   u Eup,  k   u p  I. S S. C S. R  G. (.) C W, “T P  I: A  E  E E   Nu I,” Bp P C, O. 2012.

 u v      A . T u    k  I u v  u v   H,    . S Economist , “A: L, L. A R  Tv   C  I

T    I       A  k  I . I    

I N Su  u,” Nv. 10–16, 2012. 75

E  I’ GDP v. F  $1     “I Cu Rp,” Global Finance Magazine, Magazine,

p://../p--u-p/253--p-u-p.#xzz2CAIL

86

E I A, Cu A B: I, F. 17, 2012.

76

87

W W   pu   quk,     2012,   k  up 92   p ,   p

T O  ju  p    I S A    C’ “ ”  -

p  . S v  v   u  C’ upp  2012 UN   I  “ 

p    3.5  . M,     u,   u   u, 

 v  I’  .” G ,   U S  k    C, p://u.

    k  x 89   p . H  p      p  p  -

/Iu/S-P/I/. /Iu/S -P/I/. A,  2007  2011, I p  C    200%,  I xp

v  v up up v,   v  qu    pu   x  . Su

 C   128%, v  C      p   U.S.  . A  Ru, “S  up C'  u  v    p     p   upp k 

A           upp  k up   u  I  xp. Cu  p v  u    u I u   pp      P Gu. Au  

.” I ,     v p  I, C    pu   p  v u  .

   v p ,     u    p. W  p u p u    u  

S Ju Hu  Ax L, “C Bu up Su, Ru O  Squz I,” Ru, F. 7, 2012.

k, k p u    u p  u  . S L Mu, “T C O Gu: T R F Sp  Mk P   S Du  O P,” Wall Street Journal , Nv. 6, 2012, p://.j.

77

S    pv   u Dp   “ u” u     18%

pu u    p p  ( ju vu). A    v       u xp. Kz, C R Sv, O. 15, 2012, 19. A, O J. 23, 2012, T Eup U p Cu D 2012/35/CFSP,  D 2010/413/CFSP  v u  I. N u

//SB1000142405297020471290 //SB100014 24052970204712904578094980730090 4578094980730090350. 350. 88

“I  upu, xp u—IEA,” Ru, Nv. 13, 2012, p://.u./ p://.u.//2012/11/13/-US/2012/11/13/-US-

S8E7LQ02G20121113

  p, p,  pu  I u , pu,  p pu   up  92%  EU p  I. S, pu, p,  k    pu ;    p , u, 

89

  I’ p u;     C Bk  I   . F    EU Cu D,p://..up.u///2012/u/_149069.p p://..up.u///2012/u/_149069.p

u      p  I    xp  U.S.  xp  D 3, uk E M  Yz . S “uk W N Ru I O  G Ip: E M,” Ru, Nv. 9, 2012, p://.u./

I 1996, I  uk   25-   upp 10  u     uk u. u. uk   -

/2012/11/08/uk---AFL5E8M86YX20121108 78

Lu E-K  B Fu, “T O E   M   I O Wp,” Ox Iu  E

Su, F. 2012, pp 3–4.

90

Exuv O 12170, Nv. 14, 1979, 44 F.R. 65729 Bk I Gv Pp, p://.u.v/u p://.u.v/u/ /

/P/Du/Exuv%20O%2012170.p 79

“S H— M— G   W I,” Wall Street Journal , D. 17, 2011, p://.j.//SB10001424

052970204323904577040172793024832.

91

T      I  L S A (ILSA), pp  pv  L    I. T 

  p  L  2004  L v up  u    p  p   pp  80

I  p E  p   $2   I’   p NIOC,      

u  p  u p. S, “T O E   M   I O Wp,” Lu E-K  B Fu, Ox Iu  E Su, F. 2012, p 3.

 U S. Suqu       I S A. 92

K Dvp, H  O Pp   I Nu Iu, Auu 2012, p://..//

I_Nu_Pp 81

S-Buj,, p. . A,  U S      v v u   Eup    S-Buj

 “k”    C, M, V  u  E Eup   k v  . O

93

v, v,  p   p “k” I pj   v   p   pvu

Cu Buu ),  u    ,  u  $89.2   u Auu 2012. T v  v

Eup v  I’  . S K Kz, p. .

k  p   u  u  ,  xp    —  U.S. xp—u   u   p  I p u   U.S.  . M  pu pu  

82

$14.9   $26.7  ( 2011  2012). S  U.S. u     u   k k,

N H, “T Ip  S  I-GCC E R,” M E B, N. 45, Nv. 2010,

p://..u//pu//MEB45.p

U.S. xp  I    1/3   p  ( $199.5   $150.8    ,  

 xp v  pk  u  ,      u k k. S Ru, “U.S. Exp  I R N O-T Dp S,” O. 15, 2012, p://.u. p://.u.//2012/10/15/u--u//2012/10/15/u--u-

83

T O   p   I’   x u   u A   . O Ju 30, 2012, P O p  Exuv O  v  u Dp “p  pu  p

xp-USBRE89E04L20121015

 u   pu , k ,     I v.” M R  A L, “I

94

Cu  F Hv  A,” New York imes, imes, Au. 17, 2012, p://../2012/08/18/// p://../2012/08/18///

O xp   u  21%  I’ GDP   p  30%  50%   A P Gu ,”

-u----k.?p=

p://.-./pu//2012/-/ p://.- ./pu//2012/-/---p ---p-. -.

84

95

A v  v  u I     ,         I v

    x   uquu A , v      -   vu   .

W   v     I ,        “I’   v v.

T   v  -v z up u  U A  Nu I,  u pp  v

 pp  U.S.  v  j  u     I pp          pp I’ u p. S K Kz, “I S,” C R Sv, O. 15, 2012, p 68.



Endnotes

Endnotes

I k      u B,  A    k. C pu u  Challenge,” R D. Bk, ., Cu  F R P, 2012. ppx 20%  I’  xp, Iran: Te Nuclear Challenge,”

S Fu Bz  Spu S, “A Cu-Ex Cu-Ex W C  I” R F Eup, O. 5, 2012, p://..//---u-/24729954.

A,  pu  R S, D  USA E   N F  Cu   p v, O. 19, 2012. O p  A  v v  . Mu  A   u  v   upp    , 

85

 k  pu     vp. Mj I u, u I, Jp,  Su K, v

1,000 A u  A  j ’v   I. S     I , A v    u

p   U.S.     2011. Ov   , pvu j EU pu  I u , 

,  up. P   , H, 75    I ,   v u NAO ,

-   u Eup,  k   u p  I. S S. C S. R  G. (.) C W, “T P  I: A  E  E E   Nu I,” Bp P C, O. 2012.

 u v      A . T u    k  I u v  u v   H,    . S Economist , “A: L, L. A R  Tv   C  I

T    I       A  k  I . I    

I N Su  u,” Nv. 10–16, 2012. 75

E  I’ GDP v. F  $1     “I Cu Rp,” Global Finance Magazine, Magazine,

p://../p--u-p/253--p-u-p.#xzz2CAIL

86

E I A, Cu A B: I, F. 17, 2012.

76

87

W W   pu   quk,     2012,   k  up 92   p ,   p

T O  ju  p    I S A    C’ “ ”  -

p  . S v  v   u  C’ upp  2012 UN   I  “ 

p    3.5  . M,     u,   u   u, 

 v  I’  .” G ,   U S  k    C, p://u.

    k  x 89   p . H  p      p  p  -

/Iu/S-P/I/. /Iu/S -P/I/. A,  2007  2011, I p  C    200%,  I xp

v  v up up v,   v  qu    pu   x  . Su

 C   128%, v  C      p   U.S.  . A  Ru, “S  up C'  u  v    p     p   upp k 

A           upp  k up   u  I  xp. Cu  p v  u    u I u   pp      P Gu. Au  

.” I ,     v p  I, C    pu   p  v u  .

   v p ,     u    p. W  p u p u    u  

S Ju Hu  Ax L, “C Bu up Su, Ru O  Squz I,” Ru, F. 7, 2012.

k, k p u    u p  u  . S L Mu, “T C O Gu: T R F Sp  Mk P   S Du  O P,” Wall Street Journal , Nv. 6, 2012, p://.j.

77

S    pv   u Dp   “ u” u     18%

pu u    p p  ( ju vu). A    v       u xp. Kz, C R Sv, O. 15, 2012, 19. A, O J. 23, 2012, T Eup U p Cu D 2012/35/CFSP,  D 2010/413/CFSP  v u  I. N u

//SB1000142405297020471290 //SB100014 24052970204712904578094980730090 4578094980730090350. 350. 88

“I  upu, xp u—IEA,” Ru, Nv. 13, 2012, p://.u./ p://.u.//2012/11/13/-US/2012/11/13/-US-

S8E7LQ02G20121113

  p, p,  pu  I u , pu,  p pu   up  92%  EU p  I. S, pu, p,  k    pu ;    p , u, 

89

  I’ p u;     C Bk  I   . F    EU Cu D,p://..up.u///2012/u/_149069.p p://..up.u///2012/u/_149069.p

u      p  I    xp  U.S.  xp  D 3, uk E M  Yz . S “uk W N Ru I O  G Ip: E M,” Ru, Nv. 9, 2012, p://.u./

I 1996, I  uk   25-   upp 10  u     uk u. u. uk   -

/2012/11/08/uk---AFL5E8M86YX20121108 78

Lu E-K  B Fu, “T O E   M   I O Wp,” Ox Iu  E

Su, F. 2012, pp 3–4.

90

Exuv O 12170, Nv. 14, 1979, 44 F.R. 65729 Bk I Gv Pp, p://.u.v/u p://.u.v/u/ /

/P/Du/Exuv%20O%2012170.p 79

“S H— M— G   W I,” Wall Street Journal , D. 17, 2011, p://.j.//SB10001424

052970204323904577040172793024832.

91

T      I  L S A (ILSA), pp  pv  L    I. T 

  p  L  2004  L v up  u    p  p   pp  80

I  p E  p   $2   I’   p NIOC,      

u  p  u p. S, “T O E   M   I O Wp,” Lu E-K  B Fu, Ox Iu  E Su, F. 2012, p 3.

 U S. Suqu       I S A. 92

K Dvp, H  O Pp   I Nu Iu, Auu 2012, p://..//

I_Nu_Pp 81

S-Buj,, p. . A,  U S      v v u   Eup    S-Buj

 “k”    C, M, V  u  E Eup   k v  . O

93

v, v,  p   p “k” I pj   v   p   pvu

Cu Buu ),  u    ,  u  $89.2   u Auu 2012. T v  v

Eup v  I’  . S K Kz, p. .

k  p   u  u  ,  xp    —  U.S. xp—u   u   p  I p u   U.S.  . M  pu pu  

82

$14.9   $26.7  ( 2011  2012). S  U.S. u     u   k k,

N H, “T Ip  S  I-GCC E R,” M E B, N. 45, Nv. 2010,

p://..u//pu//MEB45.p

U.S. xp  I    1/3   p  ( $199.5   $150.8    ,  

 xp v  pk  u  ,      u k k. S Ru, “U.S. Exp  I R N O-T Dp S,” O. 15, 2012, p://.u. p://.u.//2012/10/15/u--u//2012/10/15/u--u-

83

T O   p   I’   x u   u A   . O Ju 30, 2012, P O p  Exuv O  v  u Dp “p  pu  p

xp-USBRE89E04L20121015

 u   pu , k ,     I v.” M R  A L, “I

94

Cu  F Hv  A,” New York imes, imes, Au. 17, 2012, p://../2012/08/18/// p://../2012/08/18///

O xp   u  21%  I’ GDP   p  30%  50%   A P Gu ,”

-u----k.?p=

p://.-./pu//2012/-/ p://.- ./pu//2012/-/---p ---p-. -.

84

95

A v  v  u I     ,         I v

    x   uquu A , v      -   vu   .

W   v     I ,        “I’   v v.

T   v  -v z up u  U A  Nu I,  u pp  v

 pp  U.S.  v  j  u     I pp          pp I’ u p. S K Kz, “I S,” C R Sv, O. 15, 2012, p 68.



Endnotes

96

Exuv O 13622  P.L. 112-158 u  U.S. u v  p    pu I , , p 68.

97

T u     Eup  I      vu. I   p v uk,     Az   p  . S Ju Pk, “EU Mv C  N I S,” Ru, O. 12, 2012, p://.u.//2012/10/12/u-u-- p://.u./ /2012/10/12/u-u---USBRE89B0VJ201 -USBRE89B0VJ20121012 21012 98

B  EU      O 2012,   u  p       p  

U.S.   u  I u , “ x   u’      Eup  ,   p   pu.” Kz, p. . “I S,” p 68. 99

Ju Pk, p. .

100

T EU   p  v   “p    UN     pv upp  I' p-

-v u v    vp  u p v …. v  u pp  104 p —43   v     UN,   …[ ] EU.” Fuu    u xp  u v . S Cu   Eup U, “F, T Eup U  I,” Bu, Bu, O. 16, 2012, p 5. 101

S Kz, p. . “I S,” pp 68–69   .

T pp    W Lu, D  T I Pj; I B, T I Pj C;  P L,   T I Pj. T  v  K Kz  pv vu u  . T pp  v p u  T R. Pk, J W  MI  Sp Hz  Rk B’ Fu. M     vu   u. B u    pp    p  . A   pv  Rx E. Ou p ,  L,     O D, I.,   Ok N, u  vu     k  pu p.


T I Pj   -v -v  z  k  pv     U S  I v. Fu  2002   U N A   USA  Rk B’ B’ Fu, T I Pj  p  2009. T    T I Pj  v   v : Sp Hz, W Lu, W M, T Pk, J W,  Fk W. © 2012 T I Pj

Endnotes

96

Exuv O 13622  P.L. 112-158 u  U.S. u v  p    pu I , , p 68.

97

T u     Eup  I      vu. I   p v uk,     Az   p  . S Ju Pk, “EU Mv C  N I S,” Ru, O. 12, 2012, p://.u.//2012/10/12/u-u-- p://.u./ /2012/10/12/u-u---USBRE89B0VJ201 -USBRE89B0VJ20121012 21012 98

B  EU      O 2012,   u  p       p  

U.S.   u  I u , “ x   u’      Eup  ,   p   pu.” Kz, p. . “I S,” p 68. 99

Ju Pk, p. .

100

T EU   p  v   “p    UN     pv upp  I' p-

-v u v    vp  u p v …. v  u pp  104 p —43   v     UN,   …[ ] EU.” Fuu    u xp  u v . S Cu   Eup U, “F, T Eup U  I,” Bu, Bu, O. 16, 2012, p 5. 101

S Kz, p. . “I S,” pp 68–69   .

T pp    W Lu, D  T I Pj; I B, T I Pj C;  P L,   T I Pj. T  v  K Kz  pv vu u  . T pp  v p u  T R. Pk, J W  MI  Sp Hz  Rk B’ Fu. M     vu   u. B u    pp    p  . A   pv  Rx E. Ou p ,  L,     O D, I.,   Ok N, u  vu     k  pu p.


T I Pj   -v -v  z  k  pv     U S  I v. Fu  2002   U N A   USA  Rk B’ B’ Fu, T I Pj  p  2009. T    T I Pj  v   v : Sp Hz, W Lu, W M, T Pk, J W,  Fk W. © 2012 T I Pj

THE IRAN PROJECT The Iran Project 475 Riverside Drive Suite 900 New York, NY 10115 email: [email protected] www.theiranproject.org

THE IRAN PROJECT The Iran Project 475 Riverside Drive Suite 900 New York, NY 10115 email: [email protected] www.theiranproject.org

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