History is Marching

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History is Marching (2018) Written and narrated by James Bell Editing and image writing by Alex Bushell

[Black screen. CAPTION fades in.] CAPTION:

What we may be witnessing is not just the end of the Cold War, or the passing of a particular period of postwar history, but the end of history as such: that is, the end point of mankind's ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government. Francis Fukuyama, The End of History? (1989)

[CAPTION fades out. Fade to image of the Soviet flag being lowered. Cut to CAPTION 2 on a black background with a music cue.] CAPTION 2:

This is a film about crisis, war and revolution.

[Cut to footage of Brexit referendum results.] DIMBLEBY:

Well, at 20 minutes to five we can now say the decision taken in 1975 by this country to join the common market has been reversed by this referendum to leave the EU.

[Cut to footage of Donald Trump victory speech.] PENCE:

So let me say it is my high honour and distinct privilege to introduce to you the President elect of the United States of America, Donald Trump.

[Trump appears, with music swelling in the background. Cut to drone footage of destroyed Syrian landscapes. It speeds up rapidly as the music continues. Cut to black.] NARRATOR:

The world is changing.

[Cut to a montage of the events being discussed by the NARRATOR.] NARRATOR:

Since Britain’s vote to leave the European Union and the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States in 2016, all that was certain in world politics has evaporated into air. The political relationships between major western nations are becoming antagonistic, with disagreements over trade between the US, Canada and the European Union resulting in increasingly aggressive political confrontations. The belligerence of US foreign policy under Trump
















Even as these tensions play out, the west is openly preparing itself for confrontation with Russia and China. Along Russia’s western border, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation – or NATO – has a military line running from Estonia to Poland under the name Enhanced Forward Presence. Described as a deterrent, this line is the largest force stationed in Europe since the end of the so-called “Cold War”, armed to the teeth with the latest military equipment and primed for a rapid attack. China is similarly encircled, with over 400 US military bases surrounding its borders. These military nooses are complemented by an ongoing campaign of diplomatic and economic aggression, with Russia and China the target of sanctions and diplomatic expulsions. To put things bluntly: we stand upon the precipice of a global confrontation. confrontation. In economic and political terms, the world cannot be maintained in the way that it has been. In this film, we will look at the causes of this confrontation and the political strategies of those western powers that stand at its heart. This is not an idle task. Rather, it is intended to pose a question. As the world heads closer and closer toward the kind of inordinate bloodletting that characterised the first and second world war, we must ask how it may be prevented.

[Cut to CAPTION 3.] CAPTION 3:

HISTORY IS MARCHING

[Fade to CAPTION 4.] CAPTION 4:

PART ONE: IMPERIALISM, THE HIGHEST STAGE OF CAPITALISM

[TITLE CARD 2 fades to black. Fade to footage of the New York Stock Exchange.] NARRATOR:

In order to make sense of the events shaking world politics, we first need to understand something fundamental about our society. Our world is dominated by the social system of capitalist imperialism.
















for example, the 2003 Iraq war. However, observing this power grab is not enough to get to the heart of the matter. No society can be understood simply in terms of the blood it has spilt, no matter how deep those rivers may run. If we wish to understand the essential and defining characteristics of a social system, we must look beyond its appearance and attempt to understand the basis of how it functions.

[Cut to black and white footage of factory workers. Montage using black and white footage where appropriate. Include brief flashes of gothic imagery (skulls, bodies etc) throughout this section.] NARRATOR:

Imperialism is a form of capitalism, thus we must begin by approaching how capitalism functions in general. This is precisely the task undertaken by the revolutionary revolutionary philosopher Karl Marx, most Das Kapital . clearly in his famous Whilst capitalism is often described as the existence of a free market, this definition tells us nothing about how it functions. The scientific and historical approach offered in Capital provides a far more complete picture than this. In Marx’s analysis, capitalism is commodity production at its highest stage of development, when even human labour-power itself becomes a commodity. Crucially, this production is organised through the relations of private property. The bourgeoisie (or capitalist class) who own machines, factories, land and wealth invest in production to gather commodities they may sell at a profit. In contrast, the proletariat (or working class) have nothing to sell save for their own ability to work, known as labour-power. As such, the working class sell their labour-power labour-po wer to the capitalist class in the form of waged labour. This relationship is one of exploitation. In examining the commodity, Marx asks a very simple question which reveals this. To paraphrase, “why is it that a certain number of candles are worth the same amount as a coat, or several pairs of
















how they are used, nor can one of these uses be said to be more valuable than the other. In fact, the only thing that these commodities hold in common is that they are all products of human labour. As such, the value of a commodity is determined by the quantity of socially averaged labour it takes to produce. For profit to be derived from commodity production, the capitalist class must pay the working class less in wages than their labour produces. This exploitation is not necessarily achieved by a sleight of hand or by underpaying the workers but, rather, by the logic of commodity exchange itself. As the working class sell their labourpower as a commodity, its value is determined by what it takes to reproduce. In other words, the value of a worker ’s ability to work is determined by the food, shelter, transport etcetera required to get them back to work the next day. What is unique to labour-power as a commodity is that it produces more value than it costs to reproduce. This is the source of profit. The relationship of exploitation between proletariat and bourgeoisie is what Marx terms productive or industrial capital. It is the only form of capital which produces new value. As capitalism develops, it tends toward periodic crises in industry and in politics. This is a result of what Marx terms the historical tendency of the rate of profit to fall. To expand production and remain competitive on the free market, the capitalist class are forced to attempt to increase the productivity of the workers they employ. This is achieved by investing in more and more productive machinery. However, these increases only provide temporary competitive benefits to individual capitalists or firms. As productivity averages across an industry the value of the commodities being sold declines as they require less socially averaged labour-power to produce. As such, an ever-greater proportion of the capitalists ’ investment is taken up by investment in machinery and its
















leads to the hoarding of money, known to Marx as overaccumulation, and a breakdown in production as no profitable investments investments can be found. Crises follow. This is an absolute process: the rate of profit has an historical tendency to fall toward zero. To Marx, therefore, capitalism is a class society organised to meet the needs of profit accumulation. The stratification of society into the extortionately wealthy and the dispossessed is not an accident or a mistake of policy, but a fundamental need of capitalist society. Whilst competition between capitalists leads to advancements in technology, these same technological advances cause it to break down, leading to economic deprivation, gross inequality and enormous violence. This cannot be controlled or fixed whilst capitalism continues to exist.

[Cut to black and white footage of skyscrapers, banks etc. Montage using black and white white footage as appropriate.] NARRATOR:

By the beginning of the 20 th Century capitalism had clearly developed beyond the parameters of the free market. Rather than the competition between individual capitalist enterprises which had, in general, cha racterised capitalism’s development previously, the major capitalist nations tended toward economies dominated by monopoly. Many authors and theorists began to discuss this development under the term “imperialism”, notably the English economist J.A. Hobson in 1902 and the Austrian Marxist Rudolf Hilferding in 1910. However, these explanations failed to grasp the full significance of imperialism’s development. It fell to the Russian Marxist and revolutionary Vladimir Lenin to provide a clear and concrete definition of the phenomenon in his 1916 pamphlet, Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism. Lenin begins his definition of imperialism by an analysis of the formation of monopolies. After


















As capitalism develops, production concentrates in the hands of those capitalist enterprises which have managed to compete successfully. Over time they become larger and their influence greater. Due to the enormous amount of capital employed by these industries, it becomes ever more difficult to gather the resources necessary to launch new enterprises capable of competing with them. This scale also allows for the combination of different industries, so one capitalist enterprise may deal in both the processing of raw materials and the production of manufactured goods. Cartels form between the largest enterprises, enabling them fix prices and the quantity of goods to be produced, or to divide markets and profits between themselves. Competition between small and large industries vanishes. Instead, the monopolists asphyxiate those that do not submit to their will. Competition thus grows into monopoly. The emergence of monopoly has a specific relevance to the role of the banks in capitalist society. In the earlier stages capitalist development, the banks were but humble middlemen for the making of payments. However, just as competition leads to a concentration of production in the hands of individual capitalist enterprises, so too does competition produce a concentration of capital in the hands of the banks. As more and more capital is deposited in the banks, their power increases. The industrial capitalists are made reliant upon the banks in order to gain access to capital. In turn, the banks can ascertain exactly the financial position of various capitalists, control them


















The development of monopoly in industry and monopoly associations in the banks leads to a change in the form of exports produced by a nation. Whereas the earlier stages of capitalist development typically relied upon the export of goods in international trade, imperialist nations typically export capital – that is, investment. This is a consequence of overaccumulation overaccumulation in the imperialist nations. Put simply, the development of enormous industries in the imperialist nations leads toward a falling rate of profit and, consequently, a lack of profitable investments within these nations. The resulting surplus of capital is then exported and invested in less developed nations where wages and land prices are lower. As the owners of this investment, the imperialists are generally able to agree loan terms that favour the investors. As such, the relationship between oppressed and oppressor nations under colonialism is transformed only superficially. Instead the “old” form of exploitation, under which the capitalists used their empires to secure raw materials for production at home, imperialism favours a form of exploitation based upon usury capital. This is known as superexploitation. The consequence of this export of capital is simple: over time the world is entirely divided between capitalist associations. International cartels form and negotiate the division of territories and profits between themselves. Once enough capital has been exported, this results in the complete division of the world between great powers – that is, those imperialists dominant in the world economy. Once such a


















NARRATOR:

Times Square, New York. A labyrinth of glittering billboards rises into Manhattan night, forming a delirious canopy. Here, the domination of monopolies is not only evident, it is exalted in a never ceasing dance of light and image. The gaudy cathedrals of US imperialism hold this space in thrall. At their feet, a river of humanity is cast in shadow.

[Cut to aerial footage of Times Square.] NARRATOR:

Though many claim that the analysis of capitalism offered by Marx and Lenin is outmoded or incorrect, it is increasingly relevant. Today, the system of capitalist imperialism is much the same as it was in Lenin’s time. The world wars did not secure lasting peace between the world’s great imperialist powers, but merely a temporary reprieve.

[Cut to black. CAPTION 5 fades in.] CAPTION 5:

PART TWO: THE POST WAR BOOM, “GLOBALISATION” AND GREAT POWER COMPETITION

[Fade in to drone footage of the Tyne cot cemetery in Belgium. Keep natural sound effects for a while. Fade interview sound in. Montage between between world war one and world war two graveyards.] graveyards.] JACK CAMPBELL: Now, I’m talking about 1914 and the winter of 1914-15. You couldn’t say we were living in the sense of the word. It was sheer punishment. RICHARD TOBIN: You don’t look, you see. You don’t hear, you listen. Your nose is filled with fumes and death. You taste the top of your mouth. [Inaudible.] The veneer of civilisation is dropped away. RAY WILTON:

We were told it is expected 50% casualties.


















but that’s what it was. Mengele, whom you may have heard, was standing there and he looked at you then sent you to the left or to the right. The left was the side for living and the right was the side for gas.

[Cut to footage of MR KRONEFELD.] MR KRONEFELD:

I must admit, as an ordinary man, that I’m glad that’s behind us. And I’m sure that the generation or generations that follow us will never again do something so utterly pointless, because now we know what it’s like. We’ve waged war twice now, particularly France and Germany. We have no reason to be proud of that. I sincerely hope, when I at last close my eyes, that there will never again be such a conflict.

[Cut to black with a piano note.] [Fade in to timelapse of poppies opening.] NARRATOR:

The political and economic alliances that st characterised the beginning of the 21 Century grew from the blood, rubble and ashes of the world wars. The redivision of territories between great powers was complete, with the United States taking the mantle as the dominant power of the imperialist world. As a direct consequence of the wars’ destruction, capital found new life.

[Cut to montage of European cities destroyed during WW2.] NARRATOR:

The exceptional economic period following the war is known as the post war boom. The crisis of overaccumulation and profitability that had predicated the wars was temporarily undone by their violence. Across Europe and Japan, huge swathes of crisis-ridden capital were destroyed


















best in the compost of its dead brothers, capital grew well among the graves of its former self.

[Cut to footage of fascist Germany, fascist Italy and fascist Japan.] NARRATOR:

Fascism also aided in the construction of the post war boom. Whilst it claims to be many things, the political meaning of fascism is very simple: it is the raw, uncloaked barbarity of capitalist society. In Germany and Italy this is very clear. Rather than coming to power upon the basis of its own energy or class, fascism was aided into power by the capitalist class for the purpose of suppre ssing the powerful workers’ movements which arose in these nations during the inter-war period. It obliged to this purpose dutifully, destroying trade unions and violently dispersing working-class organisations. The consequences of this repression for the post war period were low wages and a working class so exhausted that resistance to such an increased rate of exploitation was all but impossible.

[Cut to footage of the Soviet Union.] NARRATOR:

The dark clouds that encircled the earth between 1914 and 1945 were not, however, immovable. Light first pierced their canopy in 1917, with the victory of the Bolshevik revolution in Russia and the formation of the Soviet Union – the world’s first socialist state. By 1945, socialism had spread far into Europe. Whilst the USSR was by no means perfect, and its excesses of violence and mistakes of political economy must be learnt from, it represented the most powerful force of resistance to imperialism that the world had ever




















this formation was of the same substance as the international capitalist associations which had formed during the initial division of the world between imperialists. Using a combination of capital exports and financial aid to European states, the US both secured its dominance and brought about a general increase in the rate of profit. Profits were divided between the imperialists according to their relative competitive positions in the world market. The alliance gained a military expression with the formation of NATO in 1949.

[Cut to footage of European capitals.] NARRATOR:

However, competition between these powers continued to operate even through this alliance. The most significant expression of this was the formation of the European Economic Community – or EEC – in 1957. Introduced by the Treaty of Rome, the EEC brought Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and the German Federal Republic into a common market and a customs union. Although these moves were initially supported by US imperialism, imperialism, they were brought about by the collective need of mainland Europe to band together in order to remain able to compete with the US. As such, it laid the




















[Cut to black.] NARRATOR:

This was a lie.

[Cut to THATCHER outside Downing Street.] THATCHER:

Where there is discord, may we bring harmony; where there is error, may we bring truth; where there is doubt, may we bring faith; where there is despair, may we bring hope.

[Cut to REAGAN inauguration.] REAGAN:

The economic ills we suffer have come upon us over several decades. They will not go away in days, weeks or months, but they will go away. They will go away because we as Americas have the capacity now, as we’ve had in the past, to do whatever needs to be done to preserve this last and greatest bastion of freedom. In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem: government is the problem.

[Cut to footage of PINOCHET declaring military rule.] PINOCHET:

The armed forces have acted today solely from the patriotic inspiration of saving the country from the tremendous chaos into which it was being plunged by the Marxist government of Salvador Allende. The Junta will maintain judicial power and consultantship of the Public Accounts




















[Cut to aerial footage of the University of Chicago.] NARRATOR:

The economic policy of Pinochet’s rule was not designed in Chile but here, in the Economics Department of the University of Chicago. During the 1950s, the Department operated not only as a school, but self-consciously as a school of thought. The school was vehemently opposed to the state welfare systems that had formed in most of the world’s imperialist powers after the end of the second world war. Though these structures were far from socialist, funded by the breadcrumbs of colonial and imperialist exploitation, they prevented certain areas of the economy from being opened for private investment. The Department’s students and graduates – known as the Chicago boys – marched as an intellectual army, arguing for a “pure capitalism” free of any government regulations, trade barriers or entrenched interests. At the head of this army was the economist Milton Friedman. Chile was his test lab.

[Cut to montage of FRIEDMAN speaking on his relationship to PINOCHET.] FRIEDMAN:

Chile was a case in which a military regime, headed by Pinochet, was willing to switch the




















and prices to stagnate. Then, the logic of “pure” capitalism asserts itself, creating a “nation of Pinochet’s dictatorship allowed owners”. Friedman a chance to test this theory. The result was dire for the Chilean working class, with unemployment increasing tenfold and Chile’s industrial sector contracting to a size around that it had been during the second world war. For US imperialism, however, Pinochet and Friedman succeeded in the objective of destroying the gains made by the Allende government and opening Chile to superexploitation. It was a “success”.

[Cut to black. Fade to montage of protests and poverty in the US and Britain under Thatcher and Reagan.] NARRATOR:

The economic rationale underpinning Friedman’s theory – that is, the destruction of the state to open new markets – found its chance to shine in the imperialist nations with the election of Margaret Thatcher as the Prime Minister of Britain in 1979 and Ronald Reagan as President of the US in 1981. More than 40 state-owned businesses employing over 60,000 workers were sold and Britain’s council housing opened up to private purchase by the Thatcher government before her departure in 1990.




















talking and them miners weren’t even saying a word. And they got a bloke down there and he must’ve been 40 year old like I’ve just said. And they wouldn’t let him up, there were six of ‘em kicking the lights out of him and other coppers scattered the rest of the pickets.

[Cut to news footage on the collapse of the USSR.] ANCHOR:

The red flag came down over the Kremlin tonight as President Gorbachev resigned and brought an end to seven decades of communist rule in the Soviet Union.

[Cut to footage of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the poverty resulting resulting from it.] NARRATOR:

With the overthrow of the Soviet Union in 1991, imperialism was again able to expand across essentially the whole sphere of the globe. Whilst the ransacking of the state continued, capital exports and the expansion of credit drove imperialist development in this period. For example, in 1995 Foreign Direct Investment outflows increased by an enormous 38% to $317bn, with a record $100bn going to countries in the so-called “Third World”. This investment was concentrated in three blocs: the US, Japan and Europe. 76% of the investment in “Third World”






















[Cut to footage of planet earth.] NARRATOR:

The economic period of “neoliberal globalisation” represented nothing more and nothing less than the rapid division of the world between imperialist powers. The alliance between US, European and British imperialism that had developed during the post-war period could be sustained, and even formally deepened, throughout this due to the relatively open field left in the wa ke of communism’s destruction. However, as Lenin wrote, under imperialism ‘peaceful alliances prepare the ground for wars’. This period of expansion could not continue forever: the world is no more infinite now than it was in 1914. Once the earth runs out, nothing is possible but a redivision of territories by the test of strength.






















accumulation process is by launching the largest and most destructive war in humanity’s history. On 19 January, 2018, it fell to the US defence secretary – James Mattis – to give this process toward world conflagration a clear political expression.

[Cut to MATTIS.] MATTIS:

Today, America’s military reclaims an era of strategic purpose and we’re alert to the realities of a changing world and attentive to the need to protect our values and the country’s that stand with us. America’s military protects our way of life and I want to point out it also protects the realm of ideas. It’s not just about protecting geography, this is a defence strategy that will guide our efforts in all realms.

[Cut to timelapse of poppies wilting with MATTIS as voiceover.






















[Cut to footage of dollars.] NARRATOR:

the dollar. It is the US’ most powerful weapon without question. However, this power is coming to an end.

[Cut to montage of banks, Bretton Woods and Nixon’s ending of the Bretton Woods system.] NARRATOR:

Prior to the world wars, currency operated as a receipt for gold, which could be traded in at any bank. However, the requirements of the war economy in Europe meant that consumer goods had to be imported. As the US was a latecomer to both wars, it traded consumer goods to Europe for gold and, by 1944, it had accumulated two thirds of the world’s reserves and flooded Europe’s marketplace with dollar loans. As such, the decision was made at the Bretton Woods conference of the same year to tie almost every currency in






















removing their access to the world economy. However, this circumstance is becoming increasingly untenable. With the rise of the Russian and Chinese economies and the increasing size of the EU’s economy, the US is unable to retain for itself an unquestionably dominant position in the world market. Indeed, moves are already underway to bring an end to the dollar’s use as a financial weapon, with Russia, China at the EU all seeking to reduce their reliance upon the currency. The consequence of this is that the US is increasingly unable to maintain the dollar as the world’s currency anchor. Though no currency is yet able to replace it, this signifies the coming end of the US’ dominance. If it wishes to maintain its position in the world economy, it will necessarily need to resort to aggression on a scale hitherto unseen. Cometh






















TRUMP:

Well, I think we have a lot of foes. I think the European Union is a foe, what they do to us in trade. Now, you wouldn’t think of the European Union, but they’re a foe. Russia’s a foe in certain respects. China’s a foe, economically certainly, they’re a foe.

[Cut to TRUMP speaking at the UN.] TRUMP:

We will never surrender America’s sovereignty sovereignty to an unelected, unaccountable, global bureaucracy. America is governed by Americans. We reject the ideology of globalism, and we embrace the doctrine of patriotism.

[Cut to inauguration.] inauguration.] TRUMP:

We assembled here today are issuing a new decree to be heard in every city, in every foreign capital and in every hall of power. From this day
























NARRATOR:

The rise of the Chinese economy has unfolded with staggering rapidity. In 2003, China’s production accounted for 4.2% of world output. In the thirteen years between then and 2016, this had more than trebled to 15.1%. In the same year, the nation’s banking assets surpassed that of both the Eurozone and the US, standing at $33 trillion, compared to $31 trillion and $16 trillion respectively. With China’s GDP expected
























[Cut to footage of the NATO line in eastern Europe. Juxtapose against Nord Stream 2 footage.] NARRATOR:

To understand Trump’s relationship with either Russia or Europe, it is crucial to grasp both the framework of prior US policy and the reality of the EU’s relationship to Russia. The economic isolation and military intimidation of Russia has long appeared as a point of agreement within the US-led imperialist alliance. This first erupted
























Germany goes out and pays billions and billions of dollars a year to Russia.

[Cut to footage of Trump in the White House.] NARRATOR:

Although these interventions interventions may seem to contradict one another, they are two prongs of the same attack. The first intervention, at the G7, was intended to draw ire from the EU over Trump’s position on Russia. In this, it succeeded, with the French President Emmanuel
























subversion are underway across the EU, with the US ambassador to Germany stating that he wishes ‘to empower other conservatives’ on 5 June and Trump’s former strategist, Steven Bannon, openly attempting to consolidate a fascist alliance across Europe.

[Cut to montage on Iran deal and tariffs against the EU.] NARRATOR:

Trump’s strategy of using Russia as a lever by which to attack Europe is further complemented
























transatlantic alliance, further escalation with Russia and a slightly softer hand at home. This deliberately misses the essential significance of Trump’s Presidency. In every element, he is the authentic expression of the US’ quest for complete dominance as an imperialist power, as American as apple pie.

[Trump steps into the light. Cut to black. Fade in CAPTION 7.]


























NARRATOR:

Prior

to

his

meeting

to

discuss

tariffs

with
























with Iran has more than doubled, reaching €21
























NARRATOR:

This

withdrawal

led

the

EU

to

consider
























the world marketplace. Whilst the political will
























[Cut to footage of Juncker, European Commission.]











































































































































































































































































































History is Marching

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