FTTH Market, Strategies and Portfolio Update
Wireline Marketing October 2009
Agenda
FTTx market
€
Alcatel Lucent GPON Portfolio
ECO
Eco-sustainability in access networks Next generation access
All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Service evolution overview 3D-TV
Widespread Growing
Entertainment Services
Interactive TV Content
Emerging
NPVR Web on TV
Envisaged
All HD
Communication Services TV Videophony
Integrated FMC
Advanced EPG Exclusive Content
TV on PC
Commercial FMC
Terminal Videophony
Apps on TV (Open STB APIs)
DVR
Catch-Up TV Web 2.0 On TV
User Shared-TV
E-Administration Remote Elderly Care
Wider-Economy Services
Home Surveilance
HD
Rich Voice
VoD Free Nat’l Calls Free Int’l IPTV IP Traffic Calls Telephony Information
E-Education Home Monitoring
E-Health
Child Protection Wireless Up to 50/20 HSI Home Network Mg’t Up to 100/100 HSI QoS Guarantee LAN Router Home Tech Support Up to 1000/1000 HSI
Enabling Services
Source: Yankee Group 2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
More bandwidth downstream, but also upstream
Tier 1 operator in Europe: Next Generation 3D TV HDTV VOD Video Uploads/Downloads Large File Sharing Premises Web Hosting Multi Player Gaming, Interactive Distance Learning
Generates new ARPU & Differentiates Service Offering FTTP
Network PVR File Sharing/Home Video Sharing/Streaming
“One of the main learning from fiber trial is that customer shows strong interest for upload capacity (picture upload, home working, …)”
Telecommuting Video Conferencing, Premises Surveillance Web Surfing
20 15 10 5
5 10 15 20 25
VDSL ADSL 2+ Cable ADSL
Sources: FTTH Council; Operators; Alcatel-Lucent
Today’s downstream is tomorrow’s upstream All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Solving the bandwidth equation with FTT€ Strategy
Alcatel-Lucent’s strategy: “Fiber to the most economical point”
ADSL ~12 Mbps
VDSL ~50 Mbps
GPON 100 Mbps+
VDSL ~50 Mbps
P2P/AE 100 Mbps+ VDSL ~100 Mbps
Drivers: up-front CAPEX, competition, and time-to-market All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Fiber Nations On the Move
FTTx has passed the Point-of-No-Return 100%
Mature
80%
15M HH TAD
Hong Kong
South Korea
Switzerland
FTTH FTTB FTTN VDSL2 TBD
FTTx HP [%]
Japan
60%
40%
Moving
Belgium
Leapfrog
Ireland
20%
Sweden
0% 10%
Lithuania
Spain Romania
Norway
UK
Austria Portugal Slovakia
Germany Estonia
Italy
NL
US
Denmark
Croatia
France
Finland
Russia Latvia Poland
100%
Czech
China
1000%
-20%
FTTx HP Growth [%] 2007-2008 Source: Alcate-Lucent analysis of industry blend: iDATE, Ovum, Point Topic
Today more than 40M BB users are connected via fiber All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Major operators have defined their FTTx strategy Public announcements in top BB countries FTTN
FTTAmplifier for HFC
ePON / GPON
P2P / AE
N/A or TBD
70% top national carriers with GPON 50% countries with at least two operators with GPON GPON in volumes initially in the USA
Countries
Incumbent Alternative Munis/util.
Australia Belgium China Denmark France Germany Hong Kong Iceland Ireland Italy Japan Korea New Zealand Norway Singapore Spain Sweden Switzerland The Netherlands UK USA and Canada
Source: public announcements All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Cable Cable
Cable Cable Cable Cable
FTTx is translating into numbers, PON and VDSL drives FTTx
CAGR 2004-2008
FTTx Subs WW (M)
50
As % of fixed BB subscribers
50%
100%
150%
PON in Asia
40 30
PON outside Asia
20
VDSL
10 0 CY2004
3,4%
P2P CY2005
4,7%
CY2006 CY2007
6,5%
9,5%
CY2008
13,6%
Source: Infonetics / Analyse Alcatel-Lucent
PON in North America and EMAI showing strong size and highest growth All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Fiber to the most economical point FTT€ Comes in different flavors
FTTN VDSL2
Factors: Competition
FTTH AT&T
CAPEX/OPEX
Greenfield FTTH
Existing infrastructure Regulation Incentives Demand Greenfield vs. brownfield
CO VDSL2 & FTTH
FTTH/B All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
High regional variances – different financial profile Market Driven Sharing Dark Fiber in the Building
Risk Driven
Policy Driven
Joined re-use of ducts or dark fibre
Local community as IP Wholesaler Wholesaler Wholesaler
CO CO
SP1 SP2 SPx
CO CO
CO
FFP
Fiber Flexibility Point Building
Private
Building owners
Private
Ducts / fiber
Private
Fiber Nation = mosaic of Technology-agnostic sharing options All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Public
Fiber is a “big” marketing event
Fios Hummer
Reality Contests
AT&T’s “Ice Cream” truck
You just got to have it! Fiber “Tupperware” Parties & neighborhood sales
Fios Lounges AT&T’s Experience Stores All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
FTTx comes with profound usage changes
Higher BB speeds lead to increased usage, in general
time spent online (h/week)
More capacity....
…leads to more usage
Countries included: Finland, Norway, UK, Gernany, Spain, Belgium, Denmark, Switzerland, Netherlands, Austria, Ireland, Mexico
Average broadband speed (Mbps) Source: Nielsen/Netrating Netview homes data only, June 2006
“When we upgraded our customers from 2Mbps to up to 8Mbps we saw an average increase in usage of 15% per customer” - Neil Laycock (CEO PlusNet)
All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
78% of FTTH users are very satisfied 60%
50%
40% I do not like it at all Its below average Its average Its above average I like it very much
30%
20%
10%
0% Cable modem
DSL
Mobil Breband
All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Optical fibre
Source: FTTH Council Europe & Ovum, 2009
FTTH users Spend More Time Online 70%
60%
50%
Less than 30 minutes
40%
30 minutes to 1 hour 1 hour to 2 hours 2 hours to 3 hours 30%
More than 3 hours
20%
10%
0% Cable modem
14 | Presentation Title | Month 2008
DSL
Mobil Breband
Optical fibre
All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Not sure
Source: FTTH Council Europe & Ovum, 2009
Alcatel-Lucent’s leadership in GPON Alcatel-Lucent present in all major GPON deployments GPON World-wide Port Shipments (OLT+ONT)worldwide – 80+ projects in total: Alcatel-Lucent • #1 FTTx supplier in the US: Alcatel-Lucent 721K • AT&T, Verizon Huawei Motorola 520K • Leading the largest GPON deployments in Europe: Siemens Calix 304K • France Telecom, SFR, Portugal Telecom… • Developing a strong presence in APAC: E/// Huawei 240K • Hanaro, Singtel, TNZ, China Telecom, China, E/// 68K ECI Mobile… Source: Dell’Oro, August 2009 • Leading supplier of GPON to utility companies and municipalities around the world: Ericsson • Utilities include NRGi Fibernet, Jönköping Huawei 4% Energi, Bristol Virginia Utilities. Municipalities 12% include Arvidsjaur, Tidaholm Sweden, Lincoln Country US, Asturias Spain… Calix Alcatel-Lucent 16% • Developing references for point-to-point (P2P) fibre 37% solutions: • KPN (Netherlands), Sydfyns Intranet (Denmark) Motorola EWZ (and Switzerland)... 27% • Winner of prestigious IEC InfoVision Award for GPON Alcatel-Lucent shipped 37% of ONT (BBWF Paris, Sept. 9/09) cumulative GPON ports up to 2Q09
Alcatel-Lucent, a leading supplier of GPON solutions worldwide All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Alcatel-Lucent – the GPON leader Operator
Vendor
Deployment model
Status
GPON FTTU
3M HP per year, target 18M HP in 2010
GPON FTTU
Mass roll-out
GPON FTTU
Roll-out started, 15K HC
Dasan
FTTB/VDSL and FTTU
Nation wide
None
GPON/FTTU
Massive roll-out
None
GPON/FTTU
Massive deployment
Tellabs
GPON/FTTU
Started 2008
None
GPON/FTTU
Started 2009
GPON/FTTU
Since 2008, target 1M HC
GPON/FTTU
Massive roll-out
2nd Vendor
All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Agenda
FTTx market
€
Alcatel Lucent GPON Portfolio
ECO
Eco-sustainability in access networks Next generation access
All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
€
7342 ISAM FTTU – Solution in Brief The Industry Leading GPON platform • GPON standards based optical broadband - part of the ISAM family with shared technology, management • 2.5 Gb/s downstream and 1.2 Gb/s upstream over a single fiber.
I-Series ONT
• GPON encapsulation mode (GEM) for most efficient transfer of IP/Ethernet service traffic • Up to 64 subscribers per PON (a single fiber), 4 PONs per line card
O-Series ONT
• Variety of ONT options to match the needs of residential or business customers Optical Line Terminal
B-Series ONT
FTTB ONT All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
€
7342 ISAM FTTU
Optical Network Terminations – Portfolio Residential
Business
FTTB
Indoor 4xGigE, 4xE1s 24xVDSL2 (30a/17a)
2xFE, 2xGigE 4xGigE 2xPOTS, RF
Outdoor
4xGigE, 2xPOTS, optional RF
8xVDSL2 (30a/17a) 8xFE, RF
1xFE, 2xPOTS, RF 2xFE, 4xPOTS, RF
1xGigE, 8xPOTS, 2xE1, RF
2xGigE, 8xPOTS, RF
12xGigE, 24xPOTS, RF
The Most Comprehensive ONT family available All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
€
7342 ISAM FTTU
Next-gen family of GPON SFU ONTs Key Features New enclosure –Indoor and outdoor versions – Smart industrial design – Small size – Wall-mounting capable (w/o separate mounting bracket)
Lower power consumption – Up to 30% lower
RSSI enabled –For remote optical power metering
New System-On-Chip – GE at wirespeed – Multicast across all ports – HW ready for advanced L2 and L3 features
All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
€
Towards true multivendor PON infrastructure
ONT portfolio
3rd party partners
Plug’n’play interop
<2009 Expanding AlcatelLucent ONT portfolio for all FTTx deployments •Home •Building •Business •Cellsite
2009-2010 Alcatel-Lucent portfolio extension OMCI Interoperability Implementer’s Guide Version 1 full OMCI available to partners participation in OISG All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
2010-2011 Alcatel-Lucent ONT portfolio Plug’n’ play interop based on standardized OMCI
€
Alcatel-Lucent ISAM FTTU: Key Differentiators
1 2 3 4 5
Robust & field proven by more than 80 customers Tested and verified by more than 80 GPON customers Designed for the field: Only industrial temp components All in-house ALU technology, end-to-end (ONT, OLT, TPSDA)
ONT: Widest Portfolio, >20 ONTs for All Customers: Residential Customer: New data only ONT with 4 GE links Business Customers: Up to 4GE, 4E1s, POTS Multi-dwelling units: VDSL2/GE with Virtual ONT concept
OLT: Highest Capacity & Best Scalability Highest switch capacity on the market: 250Gbps per NT Highest uplink capacity: 22 Gbps per NT Unbeaten scalability: Most T-CONTs, GEMports and multicast streams
Most Resilient and Secure Full load-sharing and NT redundancy Extensive GPON specific 802.1ag fault isolation and RSSI (OLT and ONT) Control plane protection (IGMP)
Unrivaled Service Support Full voice support: Class-5/SIP/H248 & widest SIP interop Business& legacy: Circuit Emulation, Mobile Backhaul, MEF E-Line Network synchronization: BITS, IEEE1588 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
€
5520 AMS Access Management System:
Most scalable & widely deployed management system ww Tree-like network view
Realistic equipment views
Real-time alarm and status reporting
Intuitive drill down
Context-related alarm
Activity states window
Proven access management solution Over 600 systems deployed worldwide More than 80 million lines managed 20 deployments with more than 1 Million lines under management 4 Million lines managed in a single system All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
€
5520 AMS: New Generation Techology Platform for flexible OSS integration Operation Support System XML/SOAP Provisioning, XML/SOAP XML/SOAP activation, Statistics, Alarms port inventories… performance
All purpose TL1 interface
TL1 GW
5520 AMS (Core EML)
5529 OAD
5529 APC
5529 SDC
XML/SOAP Line tests, diagnosis, Line classification
5530 NA
5529 IDM
Platform integration
XML/SOAP DB Population
Hardware integration
All purpose TL1 interface
SNMP
SNMP, TFTP
SNMP, TFTP
Access Network
State of the art Web Services (XML/SOAP) - Reduce OSS integration time & cost All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
€
5529 Portfolio: Market-leading portfolio for provisioning and OSS integration 5529 APC (Access Provisioning Center) Facilitate integration of service provisioning OSS to underlying access resources
Hides complexity through resource
5529 OAD (OSS Alarm Dispatcher) Advanced interface for intelligent alarm forwarding to network wide alarm management OSS
XML/SOAP interface (MTOSI compliant) Intelligent alarm forwarding Reduces integration cost and time
5529 IDM (Inventory Data Manager) Specialized application for mass collection of inventory data in the access network.
5529 SDC (Statistics and Data Collector) Intelligent collection and dispatching of network data to performance and QoS applications
Collect mass amount of data Protect NE processing power Reduces integration cost and time
abstraction Reduces integration cost and time Support mass provisioning operations Stable and backwards compatible
Centralized database of all NEs Synchronize inventory to OSS systems Powerful GUI navigation Reduces integration cost and time
Unique portfolio of operational tools Flexible OSS integration - Automate workflows – reduce OPEX All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
€
5530 NA Network Analyzer (Now applications – Motive Product Unit)
Line Diagnostics
Wire Fault Detection
Configuration Fault Detection
Maximize Performance
Optimize Stability
Line and Fiber Diagnostics • Intelligent wire fault and configuration fault detection based on SELT and DELT • Proactive detection and localization of optical degradation and failure
Network Analysis
• No external test equipment required Network Analysis • Network-wide line quality and performance indicators Dynamic Line Management • Automatic performance optimization, for maximum stability and bitrate • Automated DSL transmission profile management (rate, spectrum, ANVN)
Market-leading line/network diagnostics & dynamic line management, >50 customers Automate helpdesk and provisioning workflows – reduce OPEX All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Agenda
FTTx market
€
Alcatel Lucent GPON Portfolio
ECO
Eco-sustainability in access networks Next generation access
All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
ECO
Our challenge: Cut green house gas emission ICT represents 2% emissions 2007. Not at par with aviation! 1.4 GtCO2e
2% of GHG
57%
0.5 GtCO2e 58% 14% 28%
2002
Fixed Broadband
2007
49% 14%
2020
PCs, peripherals and printers Data centers
18% 25%
37%
Telecom
Fixed Broadband
4%
1% Telecom Devices 3%
Fixed Narrow Band 12%
Mobile Networks 12%
Telecom Devices 3% Fixed Narrow Band 5%
Mobile Networks 13%
Source: Alcatel-Lucent analysis of Smart 2020 data
ICT challenge: x3 increase GtCO2e from 2002 to 2020 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
ECO
Three impact areas in fixed access Customer Premises: Customer Premises: Passively Cooled Remotes, ONT, CPE, remotes.. Eco-efficient ONTs
Outside Outside Plant: Plant:
Passive network, highNetworkand deployment, reliability immunity of digging, etc fiber, etc
Network Equipment: Network Equipment: Green GPON, reduced COpower equipment, cooling… consumption
CO
GPON positively affects all impacted areas
All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Breaking the OPEX trend with GPON
GPON provides more capacity at the lowest TCO 40 Life-time Energy OPEX /user [€]
ECO
35 30 25
Assumptions:
20
5 years cost of ownership 0.1 Euros/kWh
15 10 5 0 ADSL
VDSL
P2P
GPON
The Business Case is in favor of eco-sustainability All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Agenda
FTTx market
€
Alcatel Lucent GPON Portfolio
ECO
Eco-sustainability in access networks Next generation access
All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Manage the technology cycle Capacity, reach, split and optical troubleshooting
Three target applications 1.FTTB backhaul 2.Business Access 3.Fiber to the base-station: LTE backhaul
10 Gb/s
1
Extended 10 Gb/s PON
10 Gb/s PON 2010-2011
RE
2.5 Gb/s RE
GPON B+
Reach Split
Today
20km
2
GPON C+ 2009-2010
30 km
32
64
3
Extended GPON 2009-2010
60 km 128
Less dense areas addressed and central office consolidation
32 | Next Presentation Generation TitleAccess | Month | February 2008 2009
All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Making 10 Gb/s PON backwards compatible Industry converging on operationally acceptable standard WDM to split GPON from 10 Gb/s GPON
GPON
10 Gb/s GPON
No changes to OSP, including fiber and splitter
Many GPON ONTs today have WBF
10 Gb/s on different wavelengths (up and down) XGPON up
GPON up
GPON down
CATV
1260 -1280
1290 -1330
1480 -1500
1550 -1560
XGPON down
1575 -1580
λ (in nm)
Wavelengths for XG-PON same as symmetric 10G EPON – cost efficiency All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Zoom in WDM PON CAPEX and operational disadvantages CAPEX
Operations
10G PON
WDM PON
(10Gb on top of 2.5Gb)
(Everyone Gets a Lamda)
GPON
OLT Splitter ONT
Based on a 1:32 split
GPON
Today
Over Time
Today
Long term
TDM PON
WDM PON
CAPEX
Lowest cost FTTH
x3-4 TDM PON
OPEX
Low
Eco Standardized
Lowest power consumption Yes
CO Power, CO floor space High power consumption Not started
Dynamic BW
Yes
Not possible
Video overlay
Yes
Not possible
Passive OSP
Passive splitters
Temp controlled or temp extended AWG
System Design
Straight forward
Reliability
Excellent
Complex, many dependencies AWG needs to be athermal & reliable
WDM PON (as P2P) solutions are subscriber density ‘challenged’ All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
Summary
FTTx market is a reality > 40M users
€
Alcatel Lucent #1 in GPON
ECO
Eco-sustainability = eco-efficiency Next Gen Access: backwards compatible, no stranded investments
All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009
www.alcatel-lucent.com www.alcatel-lucent.com
36 | Presentation Title | Month 2009
All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009