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FOREIGN EXCHANGE NEWS, ANALYSIS AND EDUCATION FOR CURRENCY TRADERS
TRADER MAGAZINE
OPtiOns P r i m e r PsychOlOgy Of Quantum markets fOreX leverage friend Or fOes?
PPP return to valuation
O s c i l l at O r s a s trend indicatOrs
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CONTENTs
FX
12 unConventional unConventio nal MonetarY MonetarY PoliCies: hw pcy mk hpg h ccy mk hgh cg mm c c
09
GraMMatiCal evolution:
38
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05 editor’s note
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37 GlossarY FX TRADER MAGAZINE
April-May 2009 03
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CONTRIBUTORS
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FX TRADER MAGAZINE
April-May 2009
TECHNICAL ANAL ANALYSIS YSIS
FX
T m o eo W ay “C y py py $10,000 cp $1,000,000 y? y ? i y? y ? i , hw y wh h k ?” – rb rb B i h b pccg e W ay 25 y, h m m g c h cm . B i c hy y h i w b m $10,000 m . Y, i c cy y h h y w chc ppch g wh h c h mk pc fcy h e W Pcp. i m gg g y h g gg h pcc e W Ty. T mp c h wb h y c cc h cck y m. Wh i w , , g y xmp w, hw y hw h mgc e W Pcp wk h Fx mk. Y h w ch sg P (GBP/ usd). T mhy ch gg bck h y 1980. T c y ch gg oc 2007. T by W Pcp h wk qy w h mhy ch h 5-m ch! Hg h, i m h y h y y y- g h mhy ch! F xmp, h mhy ch gg h g-m g h P 1.3300
(W h y ch 1.3498) b h y ch p (W gc cy, php chg hgh 1.6170 b w. o c, h k h wy, xmp, mgh cb g p 1.4900. B k h mhy ch hw h w . l pp h w w h y 1990 h y h bg m m 1.0520 2.0045 (P a). Wh h c mp b h , w h h cp w m w. rmmb h h h p y pg wy pw m. W c h y cc h 61.8% cm h W “a” w 1.4158. 1 .4158. T T m cy h 1.4063. nx c h “c” w h w m 1.7366 1.3677. B , b h m w j 7 pp h h 61.8% m h “” w. B h w ’ p h. W “B” h w m 1.3677 2.1161 w y 2 pp h 78.6% w “a”. T e W Pcp k wy b h k Fbcc hp bw g w. FX TRADER MAGAZINE
April-May 2009 49
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TECHNICAL ANAL ANALYSIS YSIS
nw h y ch. T m g. a y c m h cmm h ch, c h pc w-k “by” 1.7450 mk 161.8% pjc h w w. o h pbm h my bgg-y c hw pck c h c w? F xmp, hw i b h 1.7450 m w 3? Wh h gh k g, b hw h c g h w w bk cy w? (s xmp hw h 261.8% 1.5628 h). Wcm h w e W! T ky g cc h b g b h y pgm. Fw y (wh hy my b) h . T bgg h c cmm (c y hg p ) kp chgg h . tk k h ch g. Wh y g , y h cc c c pjc kp hm by y k. i w h kw h 1.7450 w ky (b c) pp. i w by h h m. typcy typcy mg mk, w w wy wy g h w. i h mk bz Fbcc pjc h y, i w pc m ‘by’ h p w wh p j w pp bw h w. a y c , w g c 1.7450 w h y h y. sc h byg w g h , h p hmy. (ah p: dp y ch m h hy ch g pp c). l k h w. w. Why i hk w c g hgh 1.6170? F y h h mk my, mp kw h mm m g kw h g 50 FX TRADER MAGAZINE April-May 2009
c! s wh w ’ ’ g 1.6170. M w b j hppy cch m 1.4900.! aywy, bck h q. W w h W (2) 2.097 w ‘mp’ cc. T m h hgh pbby w (4) b cmpx . W h y h h “B” w ( b by m) g , wh h w cmg w bw h h W (3). i y ccp h c ( m h h c p wg) h y h k h W “C” wh h W (4) g w b h p h w “a.” B, h c h w aFter pg h “B” w bm w b bk h p w. a y, w y w g m hgh, b h h mg bk b b cg (g c) w . T j m h why i m kg sg c mg hgh. i y mp h p m b h hg. C h. i h mk p w k y h P p cmbg g w cy. sh i w h bh m? i y w b bg ‘cc’ mkg mk c, w b g . a h y h ch mk h m c pc b wh w hpp x. H h h xc h h p c wh wg b. T c hg b p-, w p k p g h wy. T h wy ch.
Ramki (N.Ramakrishnan)
