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OUR INSTRUCTORS Basit Shajani, CFA
Basit graduated Magna Cum Laude from the world-renowned Wharton Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania with majors in Finance and Legal Studies. After graduating, Basit ran his own private wealth management firm. He started teaching CFA courses more than five years ago, and upon discovering how much he enjoyed teaching, he founded Elan Guides with a view to providing CFA candidates all around the globe access to efficient and effective CFA study materials at affordable prices. Basit remains an avid follower of equity, commodities and real estate markets and thoroughly enjoys using his knowledge and real-world finance experience to bring theory to life. Peter Olinto, CPA, JD
Peter has taught CPA and CFA Exam Review courses for the past ten years and is a real ‘celebrity’ ‘celebrity’ in the CPA and CFA prep industries. Previously he worked as an auditor for Deloitte & Touche, was a tax attorney for Ernst and Young, and later spent nearly ten years teaching law, accounting, financial statement analysis, and tax at both the graduate and undergraduate levels at Fordham University’ss business school. He graduated Magna Cum laude from Pace University and went on to University’ earn his JD degree from Fordham University School of Law.
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QUANTITATIVE METHODS
CORRELATION AND R EGRESSION EGRESSION n
Sample covariance = Cov (X,Y) =
(X X)(Y Y)/(n 1) i
i
i = 1
where: n = sample size Xi = ith observation of Variable X X = mean observation of Variable X Yi = ith observation of Variable Y Y = mean observation of Variable Y
Sample correlation coefficient = r = =
Cov (X,Y) sXsY
n
Sample variance
2 = s X =
(X X) /(n 1) i
2
i = 1
Sample standard deviation = s X =
2
s X
Test statistic
r
n 2
Test-stat = t = = 1 r 2 Where: n = Number of observations r = Sample correlation
Linear Regression with One Independent Variable
Regression model equation = Y i = b0 + b1 X i + i, i = 1,...., n
b1 and b0 are the regression coefficients. b1 is the slope coefficient. b0 is the intercept term. is the error term that represents the variation in the dependent variable that is not explained by the independent variable.
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
QUANTITATIVE METHODS
CORRELATION AND R EGRESSION EGRESSION n
Sample covariance = Cov (X,Y) =
(X X)(Y Y)/(n 1) i
i
i = 1
where: n = sample size Xi = ith observation of Variable X X = mean observation of Variable X Yi = ith observation of Variable Y Y = mean observation of Variable Y
Sample correlation coefficient = r = =
Cov (X,Y) sXsY
n
Sample variance
2 = s X =
(X X) /(n 1) i
2
i = 1
Sample standard deviation = s X =
2
s X
Test statistic
r
n 2
Test-stat = t = = 1 r 2 Where: n = Number of observations r = Sample correlation
Linear Regression with One Independent Variable
Regression model equation = Y i = b0 + b1 X i + i, i = 1,...., n
b1 and b0 are the regression coefficients. b1 is the slope coefficient. b0 is the intercept term. is the error term that represents the variation in the dependent variable that is not explained by the independent variable.
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QUANTITATIVE METHODS
ˆ = bˆ + bˆ X , i = 1,...., n Regression line equation = Y 0 1 i i Regression Residuals n
[Y (bˆ bˆ X )] 0
i
1 i
2
i = 1
where: Y i = Actual value of the dependent variable bˆ 0 + bˆ 1 X i = Predicted value of dependent variable The Standard Error of Estimate
(
SEE =
n
(Y i bˆ 0 bˆ 1 X i)2
i = 1
) ( 1/2
=
n 2
n
(ˆ i)2
i = 1
n 2
)
1/2
=
(
SSE n 2
)
1/2
The Coefficient of Determination
Total variation = Unexplained variation + Explained variation R 2 =
Explained variation Total variation
=
Total variation Unexplained variation Total variation
Unexplained variation
=1
Total variation
Hypothesis Tests on Regression Coefficients
CAPM: R ABC = R F + ABC(R M – R F) R ABC – R F = + ABC(R M – R F) +
The intercept term for the regression, r egression, b0, is . The slope coefficient for the regression, b1, is ABC
The regression sum of squares (RSS) n
RSS =
(Y ^ Y )
2
i
Explained
variation
i = 1
The sum of squared errors or residuals (SSE) n
SSE =
(Y Y ^ ) i
i
2
Unexplained
variation
i = 1
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QUANTITATIVE METHODS
ANOVA Table Source of Variation
Degrees of Freedom
Sum of Squares
k
RSS
n k + 1)
SSE
n1
SST
Regression (explained)
Error (unexplained)
Total
k = the number of slope coefficients in the regression.
Prediction Intervals
2 s f
= s
2
^ t s Y c f
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
[
1
1 n
(X X)2 2
(n 1) s x
]
Mean Sum of Squares
MSR =
RSS k
=
MSE =
RSS 1 SSE n2
= RSS
MULTIPLE REGRESSION AND ISSUES IN REGRESSION
MULTIPLE R EGRESSION AND ISSUES IN R EGRESSION ANALYSIS Multiple regression equation
Multiple regression equation = Y i = b0 + b1 X 1i + b2 X 2i + . . .+ bk X ki + i, i = 1,2, . . . , n Y i X ji b0 b1, . . . , bk
i
n
= the ith observation of the dependent variable Y = the ith observation of the independent variable X j , j = 1,2, . . . , k = the intercept of the equation = the slope coefficients for each of the independent variables = the error term for the ith observation = the number of observations
Residual Term ˆ = Y (bˆ + bˆ X + bˆ X + . . .+ bˆ X ) ˆi = Y i Y 0 1 1i 2 2i k k i i i
Confidence Intervals
bˆ j ± (t c sbˆ j)
estimated regression coefficient ± (critical t -value)(coefficient standard error)
F -statistic F-stat =
MSR MSE
=
RSS/k SSE/[n k + 1)]
R 2 and Adjusted R 2
R 2 =
Total variation Unexplained variation Total variation
Adjusted R2 = R2 = 1
(
n1 n k 1
)
=
SST SSE SST
=
RSS SST
(1 R2)
Testing for Heteroskedasticity- The Breusch-Pagan (BP) Test
2 = nR 2 with k degrees of freedom n = Number of observations R 2 = Coefficient of determination of the second regression (the regression when the squared residuals of the original regression are regressed on the independent variables). k = Number of independent variables
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MULTIPLE REGRESSION AND ISSUES IN REGRESSION
Testing for Serial Correlation- The Durban-Watson (DW) Test DW 2(1 – r ); where r is the sample correlation between squared residuals from one period and those from the previous period. Value of Durbin-Watson Statistic (H0: No serial correlation) Reject H0, conclude Positive Serial Correlation 0
Do not Reject H0
Inconclusive d l
Inconclusive
4 d u
d u
Reject H0, conclude Negative Serial Correlation 4 d l
4
Problems in Linear Regression and Solutions Problem
Effect
Solution
Heteroskedasticity
Incorrect standard errors
Use robust standard errors (corrected for conditional heteroskedasticity)
Serial correlation
Incorrect standard errors (additional Use robust standard errors problems if a lagged value of the (corrected for serial correlation) dependent variable is used as an independent variable)
Multicollinearity
High R 2 and low t-statistics
Remove one or more independent variables; often no solution based in theory
Model Specification Errors
Y i = b0 + b1lnX 1i + b2 X 2i +
Linear Trend Models
yt = b0 + b1t + t ,
t = 1, 2, . . . , T
where: yt = the value of the time series at time t (value of the dependent variable) b0 = the y-intercept term b1 = the slope coefficient/ trend coefficient t = time, the independent or explanatory variable t = a random-error term
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TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS Linear Trend Models
yt = b0 + b1t + t ,
t = 1, 2, . . . , T
where: yt = the value of the time series at time t (value of the dependent variable) b0 = the y-intercept term b1 = the slope coefficient/ trend coefficient t = time, the independent or explanatory variable t = a random-error term Log-Linear Trend Models
A series that grows exponentially can be described using the following equation: yt = eb0 + b1t
where: yt = the value of the time series at time t (value of the dependent variable) b0 = the y-intercept term b1 = the slope coefficient t = time = 1, 2, 3 ... T We take the natural logarithm of both sides of the equation to arrive at the equation for the loglinear model: ln yt = b0 + b1t + t ,
t = 1,2, . . . , T
AUTOREGRESSIVE (AR) TIME-SERIES MODELS
xt = b0 + b1 xt 1 + t
A pth order autoregressive model is represented as: xt = b0 + b1 xt 1 + b2 xt 2+ . . . + b p xt p + t Detecting Serially Correlated Errors in an AR Model
t-stat =
Residual autocorrelation for lag Standard error of residual autocorrelation
where: Standard error of residual autocorrelation = 1/ T T = Number of observations in the time series
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TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
Mean Reversion
xt =
b0
1 b1
Multiperiod Forecasts and the Chain Rule of Forecasting
^ = ^b + ^b x x 0 1 t t+1
Random Walks
xt = xt 1 + t , E(t ) = 0, E( t 2) = 2, E(t s) = 0 if t s
The first difference of the random walk equation is given as: 2 2 yt = xt xt 1 = xt 1 + t xt 1= t , E(t ) = 0, E(t ) = , E(t s) = 0 for t s
Random Walk with a Drift
xt = b0 + b1 xt 1 + t b1 = 1, b0 0, or xt = b0 + xt 1 + t , E(t ) = 0
The first-difference of the random walk with a drift equation is given as: yt = xt xt 1 , yt = b0 + t , b0 0
The Unit Root Test of Nonstationarity
xt b0 + b1 xt 1 + t xt xt 1 b0 + b1 xt 1 xt 1 + t xt xt 1 b0 + (b1 1) xt 1 + t xt xt 1 b0 + g 1 xt 1 + t
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TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Models
xt = b0 + b1 xt 1 + . . . + b p xt p + t + 1t 1 +. . . + qt q
E(t ) = 0, E(t 2) = 2, E(t s) = 0 for t s Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models (ARCH Models)
^ 2 = a + a ^ 2 t
0
1 t 1
+ ut
The error in period t +1 can then be predicted using the following formula: ^ 2 = a^ + a ^ ^ 2 0 1 t t+1
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CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES: DETERMINATION AND FORECASTING
CURRENCY EXCHANGE R ATES: DETERMINATION AND FORECASTING Currency Cross Rates
For example, given the USD/EUR and JPY/USD exchange rates, we can calculate the cross rate between the JPY and the EUR, JPY/EUR as follows: JPY JPY = EUR USD
USD
EUR
Cross Rate Calculations with Bid-Ask Spreads USD/EUR ask = 1.3806
USD/EUR bid = 1.3802
Represents the price of EUR An investor can buy EUR with
Represents the price of EUR (base
currency). An investor can sell EUR for USD at this price (as it is the bid price quoted by the dealer).
USD at this price.
Determining the EUR/USD bid cross rate: EUR/USD bid = 1/(USD/EUR ask ) Determining the EUR/USDask cross rate: EUR/USDask = 1 / (USD/EUR bid) Forward exchange rates (F) - One year Horizom
FFC/DC = SFC/DC
(1 + iFC) (1 + iDC)
FPC/BC = SPC/BC
Forward exchange rates (F) - Any Investment Horizom
FFC/DC = SFC/DC
1 + (iFC Actual 360) 1 + (iDC Actual 360)
FPC/BC = SPC/BC
1 + (iPC Actual 360) 1 + (iBC Actual 360)
Currencies Trading at a Forward Premium/Discount
FFC/DC SFC/DC = SFC/DC
FPC/BC SPC/BC = SPC/BC
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
( (
) )
iDC) Actual 360 1 + (iDC Actual 360)
(iFC
iBC) Actual 360 1 + (iBC Actual 360)
(iPC
(1 + iPC) (1 + iBC)
CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES: DETERMINATION AND FORECASTING
Covered Interest Rate Parity
FPC/BC = SPC/BC
1 + (iPC Actual 360) 1 + (iBC Actual 360)
The forward premium (discount) on the base currency can be expressed as a percentage as: FPC/BC SPC/BC
Forward premium (discount) as a % =
SPC/BC
The forward premium (discount) on the base currency can be estimated as: Forward premium (discount) as a % FPC/BC SPC/BC iPC iBC Uncovered Interest Rate Parity
Expected future spot exchange rate:
SeFC/DC = SFC/DC
(1 + iFC) (1 + iDC)
The expected percentage change in the spot exchange rate can be calculated as: Expected % change in spot exchange rate =
SePC/BC =
SePC/BC – SPC/BC SPC/BC
The expected percentage change in the spot exchange rate can be estimated as: Expected % change in spot exchange rate SePC/BC
iPC iBC
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
Law of one price: PXFC = PXDC SFC/DC Law of one price: PXPC = PXBC SPC/BC Absolute Purchasing Power Parity (Absolute PPP) SFC/DC = GPLFC / GPLDC SPC/BC = GPLPC / GPLBC Relative Purchasing Power Parity (Relative PPP) Relative PPP: E(STFC/DC) = S0FC/DC
(
1 FC 1 + DC
T
)
Ex Ante Version of PPP Ex ante PPP: %SeFC/DC Ex ante PPP: %SePC/BC
eFC eDC ePC eBC
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CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES: DETERMINATION AND FORECASTING
Real Exchange Rates
The real exchange rate (qFC/DC) equals the ratio of the domestic price level expressed in the foreign currency to the foreign price level. qFC/DC =
PDC in terms of FC PFC
=
PDC SFC/DC PFC
= SFC/DC
( ) PDC PFC
The Fisher Effect
Fischer Effect: i = r + e International Fisher effect: (iFC – iDC) = (eFC – eDC) Figure 1: Spot Exchange Rates, Forward Exchange Rates, and Interest Rates
Ex Ante PPP
Foreign-Domestic Expected Inflation Differential
eFC eDC
International Fisher Effect
Expected change in Spot Exchange Rate %SeFC/DC
Forward Rate as an Unbiased Predictor
Uncovered Interest Rate Parity
Foreign-Domestic Interest rate Differential iFC iDC
Forward Discount FFC/DC SFC/DC SFC/DC
Covered Interest Rate Parity
Balance of Payment
Current account + Capital account + Financial account = 0 Real Interest Rate Differentials, Capital Flows and the Exchange Rate
qL/H – qL/H = (iH – iL) – (eH – eL) – (H – L)
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CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES: DETERMINATION AND FORECASTING
The Taylor rule
i = r n + + y y*) where i = the Taylor rule prescribed central bank policy rate r n = the neutral real policy rate = the current inflation rate * = the central bank’s target inflation rate y = the log of the current level of output y* = the log of the economy’s potential/sustainable level of output qPC/BC = qPC/BC + ( r nBC r nPC) + BC BC PC PC
yBC y*BC) yPC y*PC)] BC PC)
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ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE INVESTMENT DECISION
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE INVESTMENT DECISION Relationship between economic growth and stock prices
P = GDP
( )( ) E GDP
P E
P = Aggregate price or value of earnings. E = Aggregate earnings This equation can also be expressed in terms of growth rates:
P = (GDP) + (E/GDP) + (P/E) Production Function
Y = AK L1- Y = Level of aggregate output in the economy L = Quantity of labor K = Quantity of capital A = Total factor productivity. Total factor productivity (TFP) reflects the general level of productivity or technology in the economy. TFP is a scale factor i.e., an increase in TFP implies a proportionate increase in output for any combination of inputs. = Share of GDP paid out to capital 1 = Share of GDP paid out to labor y = Y/L = A(K/L)(L/L)1- = Ak y = Y/L = Output per worker or labor productivity. k = K/L = Capital per worker or capital-labor ratio
Cobb-Douglas production function
Y/Y =A/A + K/K + (1 )L/L Potential GDP
Growth rate in potential GDP = Long-term growth rate of labor force + Long-term growth rate in labor productivity
Labor Supply
Total number of hours available for work = Labor force Average hours worked per worker
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE INVESTMENT DECISION
Neoclassical Model (Solow’s Model)
( )[( )
Y 1 = K s
]
++n (1-)
s = Fraction of income that is saved = Growth rate of TFP = Elasticity of output with respect to capital y = Y/L or income per worker k = K/L or capital-labor ratio = Constant rate of depreciation on physical stock n = Labor supply growth rate. Savings/Investment Equation:
sy =
[(
]
+ + n k (1 )
)
Growth rates of Output Per Capita and the Capital-Labor Ratio
y y
k k
=
Y + s (1) K
=
Y +s (1) K
( ) (
)
Production Function in the Endogenous Growth Model
ye = f(k e) = ck e
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INVENTORIES: IMPLICATIONS FOR FINANCIAL STATEMENT AND RATIOS
INVENTORIES: IMPLICATIONS FOR FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND R ATIOS Ending Inventory = Opening Inventory + Purchases - Cost of goods sold
LIFO and FIFO Comparison with Rising Prices and Stable Inventory Levels LIFO
FIFO
COGS
Higher
Lower
Income before taxes
Lower
Higher
Income taxes
Lower
Higher
Net income
Lower
Higher
Total cash flow
Higher
Lower
EI
Lower
Higher
Working capital
Lower
Higher
LIFO versus FIFO with Rising Prices and Stable Inventory Levels Type of Ratio
Effect on
Effect on
Numerator
Denominator
Effect on Ratio
Income is lower under LIFO because COGS is higher
Sales are the same under both
Lower under LIFO
Same debt levels
Lower equity and assets under LIFO
Higher under LIFO
Profitability ratios
NP and GP margins
Solvency ratios
Debt-to-equity and debt ratio Liquidity ratios
Current ratio
Current assets are lower under LIFO because EI is lower
Current liabilities are the same.
Lower under LIFO
Quick ratio
Quick assets are higher under LIFO as a result of lower taxes paid
Current liabilities are the same
Higher under LIFO
Inventory turnover
COGS is higher under LIFO
Average inventory is lower under LIFO
Higher under LIFO
Total asset turnover
Sales are the same
Lower total assets under LIFO
Higher under LIFO
Activity ratios
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
INVENTORIES: IMPLICATIONS FOR FINANCIAL STATEMENT AND RATIOS
LIFO reserve (LR)
EIFIFO = EILIFO + LR where LR = LIFO Reserve COGSFIFO is lower than COGSLIFO during periods of rising prices: COGSFIFO = COGSLIFO (Change in LR during the year) Net Income after tax under FIFO will be greater than LIFO net income after tax by:
Change in LIFO Reserve (1 Tax rate)
When converting from LIFO to FIFO assuming rising prices: Equity (retained earnings) increases by: LIFO Reserve (1 Tax rate)
Liabilities (deferred taxes) increase by: LIFO Reserve (Tax rate)
Current assets (inventory) increase by: LIFO Reserve
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
INVENTORIES: IMPLICATIONS FOR FINANCIAL STATEMENT AND RATIOS
Impact of an Inventory Write-Down on Various Financial Ratios Effect on Numerator
Effect on Denominator
COGS increases so profits fall
Sales remain the same
Lower (worsens)
Debt levels remain the same
Equity decreases (due to lower profits) and current assets decrease (due to lower inventory)
Higher (worsens)
Current assets decrease (due to lower inventory)
Current liabilities remain the same.
Lower (worsens)
Inventory turnover
COGS increases
Average inventory decreases
Higher (improves)
Total asset turnover
Sales remain the same
Total assets decrease
Higher (improves)
Type of Ratio
Effect on Ratio
Profitability ratios
NP and GP margins
Solvency ratios
Debt-to-equity and debt ratio
Liquidity ratios
Current ratio
Activity ratios
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LONG-LIVED ASSETS: IMPLICATIONS FOR FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND RATIOS
LONG-LIVED ASSETS: IMPLICATIONS FOR FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND R ATIOS Effects of Capitalization Effects on Financial Statements
Initially when the cost is capitalized
Noncurrent assets increase. Cash flow from investing activities decreases.
In future periods when the asset is depreciated or amortized
Noncurrent assets decrease. Net income decreases. Retained earnings decrease. Equity decreases.
Effects of Expensing Effects on Financial Statements
When the item is expensed
Net income decreases by the entire after-tax amount
of the cost. No related asset is recorded on the balance sheet and therefore, no depreciation or amortization expense is charged in future periods. Operating cash flow decreases. Expensed costs have no financial statement impact in future years.
Financial Statement Effects of Capitalizing versus Expensing Capitalizing
Expensing
Higher Lower Higher Higher Higher Lower Lower Lower
Lower Higher Lower Lower Lower Higher Higher Higher
Net income (first year) Net income (future years) Total assets Shareholders’ equity Cash flow from operations activities Cash flow from investing activities Income variability Debt to equity ratio Straight Line Depreciation Depreciation expense =
Original cost Salvage value Depreciable life
Accelerated Depreciation DDB depreciation in Year X =
2 Depreciable life
× Book value at the beginning of Year X
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LONG-LIVED ASSETS: IMPLICATIONS FOR FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND RATIOS
Gross investment in fixed assets Annual depreciation expense
=
Estimated useful or depreciable life
The historical cost of an asset divided by its useful life equals annual depreciation expense under the straight line method. Therefore, the historical cost divided by annual depreciation expense equals the estimated useful life.
Accumulated depreciation Annual depreciation expense
+
Net investment in fixed assets Annual depreciation expense
Average age of asset
Remaining useful life
Annual depreciation expense times the number of years that the asset has been in use equals accumulated depreciation. Therefore, accumulated depreciation divided by annual depreciation equals the average age of the asset.
The book value of the asset divided by annual depreciation expense equals the number of years the asset has remaining in its useful life.
Income Statement Effects of Lease Classification Income Statement Item
Finance Lease
Operating Lease
Lower (Depreciation)
Higher (Lease payment)
Higher (Interest expense)
Lower (None)
EBIT (operating income)
Higher
Lower
Total expenses- early years
Higher
Lower
Total expenses- later years
Lower
Higher
Net income- early years
Lower
Higher
Net income- later years
Higher
Lower
Operating expenses Nonoperating expenses
Cash Flow Effects of Lease Classification CF Item
Finance Lease
Operating Lease
CFO
Higher
Lower
CFF
Lower
Higher
Total cash flow
Same
Same
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LONG-LIVED ASSETS: IMPLICATIONS FOR FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND RATIOS
Table 9: Impact of Lease Classification on Financial Ratios
Ratio
Numerator under Finance Lease
Denominator under Finance Lease
Ratio Better or Worse under Effect on Ratio Finance Lease
Asset turnover
Sales- same
Assets- higher
Lower
Worse
Return on assets* Net income- lower Assets- higher
Lower
Worse
Current ratio
Current assetssame
Current liabilitieshigher
Lower
Worse
Leverage ratios (D/E and D/A**)
Debt- higher
Equity- same Assets- higher
Higher
Worse
Equity- same
Lower
Worse
Return on equity* Net income- lower
**Notice that both the numerator and the denominator for the D/A ratio are higher when classifying the lease as a finance lease. Beware of such exam questions. When the numerator and the denominator of any ratio are heading in the same direction (either increasing or decreasing), determine which of the two is changing more in percentage terms. If the percentage change in the numerator is greater than the percentage change in the denominator, the numerator effect will dominate. Firms usually have lower levels of total debt compared to total assets. The increase in both debt and assets by classifying the lease as a finance lease will lead to an increase in the debt to asset ratio because the percentage increase in the numerator is greater.
Financial Statement Effects of Lease Classification from Lessor’s Perspective Financing Lease Operating Lease
Total net income Net income (early years) Taxes (early years) Total CFO Total CFI Total cash flow
Same Higher Higher Lower Higher Same
Same Lower Lower Higher Lower Same
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INTERCORPORATE INVESTMENTS
INTERCORPORATE INVESTMENTS Summary of Accounting Treatment for Investments In Financial Assets
In Associates
Business Combinations In Joint Ventures
Influence
Not significant
Significant
Controlling
Typical percentage interest
Usually < 20%
Usually 20% 50% Usually > 50% Varies
Accounting Classified into one of Treatment four categories based on management intent and type of security.
Equity method
Consolidation
Debt only: Held-to-maturity (amortized cost, changes in value ignored unless deemed as impaired) Debt and Equity: Held for trading (fair value, changes in value recognized in profit or loss) Available-for-sale (fair value, changes in value recognized in equity) Designated at fair value (fair value, changes in value recognized in profit or loss)
Combination
Description
Merger Acquisition Consolidation
Company A + Company B = Company A Company A + Company B = (Company A + Company B) Company A + Company B = Company C
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
Shared Control
IFRS: Equity method or proportionate consolidation U.S. GAAP: Equity method (except for unincorporated ventures in specialized industries)
INTERCORPORATE INVESTMENTS
Adjusted Values Upon Reclassification of Sale of Receivables:
CFO CFF Total cash flow Current assets Current liabilities Current ratio (Assuming it was greater than 1)
Lower Higher Same Higher Higher Lower
Difference between QSPE and SPE Securitized Transaction: Qualified Special
Securitized Transaction: Special
Purpose Entity
Purpose Entity
Originator of receivables sells financial
assets to an SPE. The originator does not own or hold or expect to receive beneficial interest. SFAS 140 (before 2008 revision) allowed seller to derecognize the sold assets if transferred assets have been isolated from the transferor and are beyond the reach of bankruptcy, and are financial assets.
Originator of receivables sells financial
assets to an SPE. Seller is primary beneficiary; absorbs risks and rewards. Seller maintains some level of control. Seller is required to consolidate. Seller’s balance sheet would still show receivables as an asset. Debt of SPE would appear on seller’s balance sheet.
Impact of Different Accounting Methods on Financial Ratios Equity Method
Proportionate Consolidation
Acquisition Method
Better (lower) as liabilities are lower and equity is the same
In-between
Worse (higher) as liabilities are higher and equity is the same
Net Profit Margin
Better (higher) as sales are lower and net income is the same
In-between
Worse (lower) as sales are higher and net income is the same
ROE
Better (higher) as equity is lower Same as under the and net income is the same equity method
Worse (lower) as equity is higher and net income is the same
ROA
Better (higher) as net income is the same and assets are lower
Worse (lower) as net income is the same and assets are higher
Leverage
In-between
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
EMPLOYEE COMPENSATION: POST-EMPLOYMENT AND SHARE-BASED
EMPLOYEE COMPENSATION: POST-EMPLOYMENT AND SHARE-BASED Final year’s salary = Current salary × [(1 + Annual compensation increase)years until retirement] Estimated annual payment = (Estimated final salary × Benefit formula) × Years of service Annual unit credit = Value at retirement / Years of service Types of Post-Employment Benefits Amount of PostType of Benefit
Sponsoring Company’s
Employment Benefit to
Obligation of Sponsoring
Pre-funding of Its Future
Employee
Company
Obligation
Defined contribution Amount of future benefit is pension plan not defined. Actual future benefit will depend on investment performance of plan assets. Investment risk is borne by employee.
Amount of the company’s Not applicable. obligation (contribution) is defined in each period. The contribution, if any, is typically made on a periodic basis with no additional future obligation.
Defined benefit pension plan
Amount of future benefit is defined, based on the plan’s formula (often a function of length of service and final year’s compensation). Investment risk is borne by company.
Amount of the future obligation, based on the plan’s formula, must be estimated in the current period.
Companies typically prefund the DB plans by contributing funds to a pension trust. Regulatory requirements to pre-fund vary by country.
Other postemployment benefits (e.g., retirees’ health care)
Amount of future benefit depends on plan specifications and type of benefit.
Eventual benefits are specified. The amount of the future obligation must be estimated in the current period.
Companies typically do not pre-fund other postemployment benefit obligations.
A company’s pension obligation will increase as a result of: Current service costs. Interest costs. Past service costs. Actuarial losses. A company’s pension obligation will decrease as a result of: Actuarial gains. Benefits paid.
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
EMPLOYEE COMPENSATION: POST-EMPLOYMENT AND SHARE-BASED
Reconciliation of the Pension Obligation: Pension obligation at the beginning of the period
+ Current service costs + Interest costs + Past service costs + Actuarial losses – Actuarial gains – Benefits paid Pension obligation at the end of the period
The fair value of assets held in the pension trust (plan) will increase as a result of: A positive actual dollar return earned on plan assets; and Contributions made by the employer to the plan. The fair value of plan assets will decrease as a result of: Benefits paid to employees. Reconciliation of the Fair Value of Plan Assets: Fair value of plan assets at the beginning of the period
+ Actual return on plan assets + Contributions made by the employer to the plan Benefits paid to employees Fair value of plan assets at the end of the period Balance Sheet Presentation of Defined Benefit Pension Plans
Funded status = Pension obligation Fair value of plan assets
If Pension obligation > Fair value of plan assets: Plan is underfunded Positive funded status Net pension liability. If Pension obligation < Fair value of plan assets: Plan is overfunded Negative funded status Net pension asset.
Calculating Periodic Pension Cost
Priodic pension cost = Ending funded status Beginning funded status + Employer contributions
Periodic pension cost = Current service costs + Interest costs + Past service costs + Actuarial losses Actuarial gains Actual return on plan assets
Under the corridor method, if the net cumulative amount of unrecognized actuarial gains and losses at the beginning of the reporting period exceeds 10% of the greater of (1) the defined benefit obligation or (2) the fair value of plan assets, then the excess is amortized over the expected average remaining working lives of the employees participating in the plan and included as a component of periodic pension expense on the P&L.
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
EMPLOYEE COMPENSATION: POST-EMPLOYMENT AND SHARE-BASED
Components of a Company’s Defined Benefit Pension Periodic Costs IFRS Component IFRS Recognition
U.S. GAAP Component
U.S. GAAP Recognition
Service costs
Recognized in P&L.
Current service costs Past service costs
Recognized in P&L. Recognized in OCI and subsequently amortized to P&L over the service life of employees.
Net interest income/ expense
Recognized in P&L as the following amount: Net pension liability or asset × interest rate(a)
Interest expense on pension obligation Expected return on plan assets
Recognized in P&L.
Actuarial gains and losses including differences between the actual and expected returns on plan assets
Recognized immediately in P&L or, more commonly, recognized in OCI and subsequently amortized to P&L using the corridor or faster recognition method.(b) Difference between expected and actual return on assets = Actual return (Plan assets × Expected return). Actuarial gains and losses = Changes in a company’s pension obligation arising from changes in actuarial assumptions.
Remeasurements: Recognized in OCI and Net return on plan not subsequently assets and actuarial amortized to P&L. gains and losses
Net return on plan assets = Actual return
(Plan assets × Interest rate).
Actuarial gains and losses = Changes in a company’s pension obligation arising from changes in actuarial assumptions.
Recognized in P&L as the following amount: Plan assets × expected return.
(a) The interest rate used is equal to the discount rate used to measure the pension liability (the yield on highquality corporate bonds.) (b) If the cumulative amount of unrecognized actuarial gains and losses exceeds 10 percent of the greater of the value of the plan assets or of the present value of the DB obligation (under U.S. GAAP, the projected benefit obligation), the difference must be amortized over the service lives of the employees.
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
EMPLOYEE COMPENSATION: POST-EMPLOYMENT AND SHARE-BASED
Impact of Key Assumptions on Net Pension Liability and Periodic Pension Cost Impact of Assumption on Net
Impact of Assumption on Periodic
Assumption
Pension Liability (Asset)
Pension Cost and Pension Expense
Higher discount rate
Lower obligation
Pension cost and pension expense will both typically be lower because of lower opening obligation and lower service costs
Higher rate of compensation increase
Higher obligation
Higher service and interest costs will increase periodic pension cost and pension expense.
Higher expected return on plan assets
No effect, because fair value of plan assets are used on balance sheet
Not applicable for IFRS No effect on periodic pension cost under U.S. GAAP Lower periodic pension expense under U.S. GAAP
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
MULTINATIONAL OPERATIONS
MULTINATIONAL OPERATIONS
The presentation currency (PC) is the currency in which the parent company reports its financial statements. It is typically the currency of the country where the parent is located. For example, U.S. companies are required to present their financial results in USD, German companies in EUR, Japanese companies in JPY, and so on.
The functional currency (FC) is the currency of the primary business environment in which an entity operates. It is usually the currency in which the entity primarily generates and expends cash.
The local currency (LC) is the currency of the country where the subsidiary operates.
Table 1 Foreign Currency Transaction
Type of Exposure
Export sale Import purchase
Asset (account receivable) Liability (account payable)
Strengthens
Weakens
Gain Loss
Loss Gain
Methods for Translating Foreign Currency Financial Statements of Subsidiaries Current Rate/ Temporal Method
Local Currency
T
Functional Currency
CR
Presentation Currency
Temporal Method
Local Currency
T
Functional Currency
=
Presentation Currency
Current Rate Method
Local Currency
=
Functional Currency
CR
Presentation Currency
The current rate is the exchange rate that exists on the balance sheet date. The average rate is the average exchange rate over the reporting period. The historical rate is the actual exchange rate that existed on the original transaction date.
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
MULTINATIONAL OPERATIONS
Rules for Foreign Currency Translation Current Rate Method FC = LC Income Statement Component
Sales Cost of goods sold Selling expenses Depreciation expense Amortization expense Interest expense Income tax Net income before translation gain (loss) Translation gain (loss) Net income Less: Dividends Change in retained earnings
Balance Sheet Component
Temporal Method FC = PC
Exchange Rate Used
Average rate Average rate Average rate Average rate Average rate Average rate Average rate
Average rate Historical rate Average rate Historical rate Historical rate Average rate Average rate Computed as Rev – Exp
N/A Computed as Rev – Exp Historical rate Computed as NI – Dividends Used as input for translated B/S
Plug in Number Computed as RE + Dividends Historical rate From B/S
Exchange Rate Used
Cash Accounts receivable Monetary assets Inventory Nonmonetary assets measured at current value Property, plant and equipment Less: Accumulated depreciation Nonmonetary assets measured at historical cost
Current rate Current rate Current rate Current rate Current rate
Current rate Current rate Current rate Historical rate Current rate
Current rate Current rate Current rate
Historical rate Historical rate Historical rate
Accounts payable Long-term notes payable Monetary liabilities Nonmonetary liabilities: Measured at current value Measured at historical cost Capital stock Retained earnings
Current rate Current rate Current rate
Current rate Current rate Current rate
Current rate Current rate Historical rate From I/S
Cumulative translation adjustment
Plug in Number
Current rate Historical rate Historical rate To balance Used as input for translated I/S N/A
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
MULTINATIONAL OPERATIONS
Balance Sheet Exposure
Foreign Currency (FC)
Strengthens Weakens Positive translation adjustment Negative translation adjustment Negative translation adjustment Positive translation adjustment
Balance Sheet Exposure
Net asset Net liability
Effects of Exchange Rate Movements on Financial Statements Temporal Method,
Temporal Method,
Net Monetary
Net Monetary Asset
Liability Exposure
Exposure
Foreign currency Revenues Revenues Assets Assets strengthens Liabilities Liabilities relative to parent’s Net income Net income presentation Shareholders’ equity Shareholders’ equity currency Translation loss Translation gain
Foreign currency weakens relative to parent’s presentation currency
Current Rate Method Revenues Assets Liabilities Net
income Shareholders’ equity Positive translation adjustment
Revenues
Revenues
Revenues
Assets
Assets
Assets
Liabilities
Liabilities
Liabilities
Net
Net
income Shareholders’ equity Translation gain
Net income income Shareholders’ equity Shareholders’ equity Translation loss Negative translation adjustment
Measuring Earnings Quality
Aggregate accruals = Accrual-basis earnings – Cash earnings Balance Sheet Approach
Net Operating Assets (NOA) NOAt = [(Total assetst Casht) (Total liabilitiest Total debtt)] Aggregate Accruals Aggregate accrualst b/s = NOAt NOAt1 Aggregate Ratio Accruals ratiot b/s =
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
(NOAt NOAt1) (NOAt + NOAt1)/2
INTEGRATION OF FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES
INTEGRATION OF FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES A Financial Statement Analysis Framework : Phase
Sources of Information
Examples of Output
1. Define the purpose and context of the analysis.
The nature of the analyst’s
Statement of the purpose or
function, such as evaluating an equity or debt investment or issuing a credit rating. Communication with client or supervisor on needs and concerns. Institutional guidelines related to developing specific work product.
Financial statements, other
2. Collect input data.
financial data, questionnaires, and industry/economic data. Discussions with management, suppliers, customers, and competitors. Company site visits (e.g., to production facilities or retail stores)
objective of analysis. A list (written or unwritten) of specific questions to be answered by the analysis. Nature and content of report to be provided. Timetable and budgeted resources for completion.
Organized financial statements. Financial data tables. Completed questionnaires, if applicable.
3. Process input data, as required, into analytically useful data.
Data from the previous phase.
Adjusted financial statements. Common-size statements. Forecasts.
4. Analyze/interpret the data.
Input data and processed data
Analytical results
5. Develop and communicate conclusions and recommendations (e.g., with an analysis report).
Analytical results and previous
Analytical report answering
6. Follow-up.
Information gathered by
reports Institutional guidelines for published reports
questions posed in Phase 1 Recommendations regarding the purpose of the analysis, such as whether to make an investment or grant credit.
Update reports and
periodically repeating above steps as necessary to determine whether changes to holdings or recommendations are necessary
recommendations
DuPont Analysis
ROE = Tax Burden × Interest burden × EBIT margin × Total asset turnover × Financial leverage ROE =
NI EBT
×
EBT EBIT
×
EBIT Revenue
×
Revenue Average Asset
×
Average Asset Average Equity
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
CAPITAL BUDGETING
CAPITAL BUDGETING Expansion Project
Initial investment outlay for a new investment= FCInv + NWCInv NWCInv = Non-cash current assets – Non-debt current liabilities Annual after-tax operating cash flows (CF) CF = (S – C – D) (1 – t) + D
or
CF = (S – C) (1 – t) + tD
Terminal year after-tax non-operating cash flow (TNOCF): TNOCF = SalT + NWCInv – t(SalT – BVT)
Replacement Project
Investment outlays: Initial investment for a replacement project = FCInv + NWCInv – Sal0 + t(Sal0 – BV0) Annual after-tax operating cash flow:
CF = (S – C) (1 – t) + tD Terminal year after-tax non-operating cash flow: TNOCF = SalT + NWCInv – t(SalT – BT)
Mutually Exclusive Projects with Unequal Lives
Least Common Multiple of Lives Approach In this approach, both projects are repeated until their ‘chains’ extend over the same time horizon. Given equal time horizons, the NPVs of the two project chains are compared and the project with the higher chain NPV is chosen.
Equivalent Annual Annuity Approach (EAA) This approach calculates the annuity payment (equal annual payment) over the project’s life that is equivalent in present value (PV) to the project’s NPV. The project with the higher EAA is chosen.
SML
R i = R F + ßi[E(R M) – R F] R i = Required return for project or asset i R F = Risk-free rate of return ßi = Beta of project or asset i [E(R M) – R F] = Market risk premium © 2013 ELAN GUIDES
CAPITAL BUDGETING
Economic Income
Economic income = After-tax operating cash flow + Increase in market value Economic income = After-tax operating cash flow + (Ending market value – Beginning market value) Economic income = After-tax operating cash flow – (Beginning market value – Ending market value) Economic income = After-tax cash flows – Economic depreciation
Economic Profit
Economic profit = [EBIT (1 – Tax rate)] – $WACC Economic profit = NOPAT – $WACC NOPAT = Net operating profit after tax $WACC = Dollar cost of capital = Cost of capital (%) × Invested capital Under this approach, a project’s NPV is calculated as the sum of the present values of economic profit earned over its life discounted at the cost of capital.
NPV = MVA =
(1 + WACC) EPt
t
Residual Income
Residual income = Net income for the period – Equity charge for the period Equity charge for the period = Required return on equity × Beginning-of-period book value of equity The RI approach calculates value from the perspective of equity holders only. Therefore, future residual income is discounted at the required rate of return on equity to calculate NPV.
NPV =
(1 + r ) RIt
E
t
Claims Valuation
First, we separate the cash flows available to debt and equity holders Then we discount them at their respective required rates of return. o Cash flows available to debt holders are discounted at the cost of debt, o Cash flows available to equity holders are discounted at the cost of equity. The present values of the two cash flow streams are added to calculate the total value of the company/asset.
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
CAPITAL STRUCTURE The Capital Structure Decision
r D(1 t) +
r WACC =
rE
r D = Marginal cost of debt r E = Marginal cost of equity t = Marginal tax rate D = Market value of the company’s outstanding debt E = Market value of shareholders’ equity V = D + E = Value of the company MM Proposition II without Taxes: Higher Financial Leverage Raises the Cost of Equity
r WACC =
( ) ( ) r D +
r E = r 0
Company’s cost of equity (r E) under MM Proposition II without taxs is calculated as: Intercept
Independent variable
r E = r 0 + (r 0 r D)
Depende nt vari able
Slope
The total value of the company is calculated as: V=
Interest EBIT Interest + r D r E
The systematic risk (ß) of the company’s assets can be expressed as the weighted average of the systematic risk of the company’s debt and equity.
A =
() ( ) +
This formula can also be expressed as:
E =
+ (A D)
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
()
CAPITAL STRUCTURE
Relaxing the Assumption of no Taxes
=
+ tD
The WACC is then calculated as:
r WACC =
r D(1 t) +
rE
And the cost of equity is calculated as:
r E = r 0 + (r 0 r D) (1 t)
Modigilani and Miller Propositions Without Taxes
Proposition I Proposition II
With Taxes
= r E = r 0 + (r 0 r D)
=
+ tD
r E = r 0 + (r 0 r D) (1 t)
The Optimal Capital Structure: The Static Trade-Off Theory
VL = VU + tD – PV(Costs of financial distress)
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
DIVIDENDS AND SHARE REPURCHASE
DIVIDENDS AND SHARE R EPURCHASE The expected decrease in share price when it goes ex-dividend can be calculated using the following equation:
PW
PX =
D
Pw = Share price with the right to receive the dividend PX = Share price without the right to receive the dividend D = Amount of dividend TD = Tax rate on dividends TCG = Tax rate on capital gains
Double Taxation System
ETR = CTR + [(1 – CTR) × MTR D] ETR = Effective tax rate CTR = Corporate tax rate MTR D = Investor’s marginal tax rate on dividends
Split-Rate Tax System
ETR = CTR D + [(1 – CTR D) × MTR D] CTR D = Corporate tax rate on earnings distributed as dividends.
Stable Dividend Policy
The expected increase in dividends is calculated as: Expected dividend increase = Increase in earnings × Target payout ratio × Adjustment factor Adjustment factor = 1/N N = Number of years over which the adjustment is expected to occur
Analysis of Dividend Safety
Dividend payout ratio = (dividends / net income) Dividend coverage ratio = (net income / dividends) FCFE coverage ratio = FCFE / [Dividends + Share repurchases]
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
MERGERS AND ACQUISITION
MERGERS AND ACQUISITION Mergers and the Industry Life Cycle Industry Life Cycle Stage
Industry Description
Pioneering development
Low but slowly
increasing sales growth. Substantial development costs.
Rapid accelerating growth
High profit
Mature growth
Decrease in the
Stabilization and market maturity
Motives for Merger
Younger, smaller companies may sell Conglomerate themselves to larger firms in mature Horizontal
To meet substantial capital
margins. Low competition.
requirements for expansion.
Horizontal savings, and operational efficiencies. Vertical
entry of new competitors. Growth potential remains.
constraints Increasing competition.
Overcapacity. Eroding profit margins.
Conglomerate Horizontal
To achieve economies of scale,
Deceleration of growth and decline
or declining industries to enter into a new growth industry. Young companies may merge with firms that allow them to pool management and capital resources.
Increasing capacity To achieve economies of scale in
Types of Merger
Horizontal
research, production, and marketing to match low costs and prices of competitors. Large companies may buy smaller companies to improve management and provide a broader financial base.
Horizontal mergers to ensure survival. Horizontal Vertical mergers to increase efficiency Vertical and profit margins. Conglomerate Conglomerate mergers to exploit
synergy. Companies in the industry may acquire companies in young industries.
Source: Adapted from J. Fred Weston, Kwang S. Chung, and Susan E. Hoag, Mergers, Restructuring, and Corporate Control (New York: Prentice Hall, 1990, p.102) and Bruno Solnik and Dennis McLeavy, International Investments, 5th edition (Boston: Addison Wesley, 2004, p. 264 – 265).
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
MERGERS AND ACQUISITION
Major Differences of Stock versus Asset Purchases Stock Purchase
Payment
Asset Purchase
Target shareholders receive compensation in exchange for their shares. Shareholder approval required.
Payment is made to the selling company rather than directly to shareholders. Approval Shareholder approval might not be required. Tax: Corporate No corporate-level taxes. Target company pays taxes on any capital gains. Tax: Shareholder Target company’s shareholders No direct tax consequence for target are taxed on their capital gain. company’s shareholders. Liabilities Acquirer assumes the target’s Acquirer generally avoids the liabilities. assumption of liabilities. Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) n
i
(
Sales or output of firm i Total sales or output of market
100
)
2
HHI Concentration Levels and Possible Government Response Post-Merger HHI
Concentration
Change in HHI Government Action
Less than 1,000
Not concentrated
Any amount
No action
Between 1,000 and 1,800 Moderately concentrated 100 or more
Possible challenge
More than 1,800
Challenge
Highly concentrated
50 or more
FCFF is estimated by:
+
Net income Net interest after tax
= +
Unlevered income Changes in deferred taxes
= NOPLAT (net operating profit less adjusted taxes) + Net noncash charges – Change in net working capital – Capital expenditures (capex) Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) Net interest after tax = (Interest expense – Interest income) (1 – tax rate) Working capital = Current assets (excl. cash and equivalents) – Current liabilities (excl. short-term debt)
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
MERGERS AND ACQUISITION
Comparable Company Analysis
TP =
(DP SP) SP
TP = Takeover premium DP = Deal price per share SP = Target’s stock price per share Bid Evaluation
Target shareholders’ gain = Takeover premium = PT – VT Acquirer’s gain = Synergies – Premium = S – (PT – VT) S = Synergies created by the merger transaction The post-merger value of the combined company is composed of the pre-merger value of the acquirer, the pre-merger value of the target, and the synergies created by the merger. These sources of value are adjusted for the cash paid to target shareholders to determine the value of the combined post-merger company. VA* = VA + VT + S – C VA* = Value of combined company C = Cash paid to target shareholders
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
EQUITY VALUATION: APPLICATIONS AND PROCESSES
EQUITY VALUATION: APPLICATIONS AND PROCESSES Perceived mispricing: Perceived mispricing = True mispricing + Error in the estimate of intrinsic value. VE – P = (V – P) + (VE – V) VE = Estimate of intrinsic value P = Market price V = True (unobservable) intrinsic value
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
RETURN CONCEPTS
R ETURN CONCEPTS Holding Period Return
Holding period return =
PH – P0 + DH P0
PH = Price at the end of the holding period P0 = Price at the beginning of the period DH = Dividend
Required Return
The difference between an asset’s expected return and its required return is known as expected alpha, ex ante alpha or expected abnormal return. o Expected alpha = Expected return – Required return The difference between the actual (realized) return on an asset and its required return is known as realized alpha or ex post alpha. Realized alpha = Actual HPR – Required return for the period o
When the investor’s estimate of intrinsic value (V0) is different from the current market price (P0), the investor’s expected return has two components: 1. 2.
The required return (r T) earned on the asset’s current market price; and The return from convergence of price to value [(V0 – P0)/P0].
Internal Rate of Return
Intrinsic Value =
V0 =
Next year’s expected dividend Required return – Expected dividend growth rate D1 k e – g
If the asset is assumed to be efficiently-priced (i.e. the market price equals its intrinsic value), the IRR would equal the required return on equity. Therefore, the IRR can be estimated as:
Required return (IRR) =
k e (IRR) =
Next year’s dividend
D1 P0
Market price
+ Expected dividend growth rate
+g
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
RETURN CONCEPTS
Equity Risk Premium
The required rate of return on a particular stock can be computed using either of the following two approaches. Both these approaches require the equity risk premium to be estimated first. 1.
Required return on share i = Current expected risk-free return + ßi(Equity risk premium)
A beta greater (lower) than 1 indicates that the security has greater-than-average (lower-thanaverage) systematic risk. 2.
Required return on share i = Current expected risk-free return + Equity risk premium ± Other risk premia/discounts appropriate for i
This method of estimating the required return is known as the build-up method. It is discussed later in the reading and is primarily used for valuations of private businesses. Gordon Growth Model (GGM) Estimates
GCM equity risk premium estimate =
D1 P0
+ g – r LTGD
Macroeconomic Model Estimates Equity risk premium = {[(1 + EINFL) (1 + EGREPS) (1 + EGPE) – 1] + EINC} – Expected RF Expected inflation =
1 + YTM of 20-year maturity T-bonds 1 + YTM of 20-year maturity TIPS
– 1
The Captial Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
Required return on i = Expected risk-free rate + Betai (Equity risk premium) The Fama-French Model
imktRMRF + isizeSMB + ivalueHML
r i = RF + ßmkt = Market beta ßsize = Size beta ßvalue = Value beta
The Pastor-Stambaugh model (PSM)
r i = R F +
imktRMRF + isizeSMB + ivalueHML + iliqLIQ
ßliq = Liquidity beta
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RETURN CONCEPTS
BIRR model r i = T-bill rate + (Sensitivity to confidence risk × Confidence risk) + (Sensitivity to time horizon risk × Time horizon risk) + (Sensitivity to inflation risk × Inflation risk) + (Sensitivity to business cycle risk × Business cycle risk) + (Sensitivity to market timing risk × Market timing risk) Build-up method
r i = Risk-free rate + Equity risk premium + Size premium + Specific-company premium
For companies with publicly-traded debt , the bond-yield plus risk premium approach can be used to calculate the cost of equity: BYPRP cost of equity = YTM on the company’s long-term debt + Risk premium
Adjusting Beta for Beta Drift
Adjusted beta = (2/3) (Unadjusted beta) + (1/3) (1.0) Estimating the Asset Beta for the Comparable Publicly Traded Firm: BASSET reflects only business risk of the comparable company. Therefore it is used as a proxy for business risk of the project being studied.
1
ßASSET = ß EQUITY
(
1 + (1 - t)
D E
)
BEQUITY reflects business and financial risk of comparable company.
where: D/E = debt-to-equity ratio of the comparable company. t = marginal tax rate of the comparable company. To adjust the asset beta of the comparable for the capital structure (financial risk) of the project or company being evaluated, we use the following formula: BPROJECT reflects business and financial risk of the project.
ßPROJECT = ßASSET
D 1 + (1 - t) E
BASSET reflects business risk of project.
where: D/E = debt-to-equity ratio of the subject company. t = marginal tax rate of the subject company. Country Spread Model
ERP estimate = ERP for a developed market + Country premium
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
RETURN CONCEPTS
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) WACC =
MVD MVD + MVCE
r d (1 – Tax rate ) +
MVCE MVD + MVCE
MVD = Market value of the company’s debt r d = Required rate of return on debt MVCE = Market value of the company’s common equity r = Required rate of return on equity
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
r
DISCOUNTED DIVIDEND VALUATION
DISCOUNTED DIVIDEND VALUATION One-Period DDM
V0 =
D1 (1 + r)1
+
P1 (1 + r) 1
D1 + P1
=
(1 + r)1
V0 = The value of the stock today (t = 0) P1 = Expected price of the stock after one year (t = 1) D1 = Expected dividend for Year 1, assuming it will be paid at the end of Year 1 (t = 1) r = Required return on the stock Multiple-Period DDM
V0 =
D1
Dn Pn + + + ... (1 + r)1 (1 + r)n (1 + r)n n
V0 =
(1 + r) Dt
t
+
t = 1
Pn (1 + r)n
Expression for calculating Value of a share of stock
V0 =
(1 + r) Dt
t
t = 1
Gordon Growth Model
V0 =
D0 (1 + g) (r – g)
, or V0 =
D1 (r – g)
Present value of Growth Opportunities
V0 =
E1 r
+ PVGO
P/E ratio
Justified leading P/E ratio =
Justified trailing P/E =
P0 E0
P0 E1
=
=
D1/E1
D1/E0 r g
r g
=
=
(1 b) r g
D0 (1 g) / E0 r g
=
(1 b)(1 g) r g
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
DISCOUNTED DIVI DEND VALUATION
Value of Fixed-Rate Perpetual Preferred Stock
D
V0 =
r
Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model n
V0 =
D0 (1 + gS)t (1 + r)t
t = 1
+
D0 (1 + gS)n(1 + gL) (1 + r)n(r – gL)
gS = Short term supernormal growth rate gL = Long-term sustainable growth rate r = required return n = Length of the supernormal growth period The H-Model
V0 =
D0 (1 + gL) r – gL
+
D0H (gs – gL) r – gL
gS = Short term high growth rate gL = Long-term sustainable growth rate r = required return H = Half-life = 0.5 times the length of the high growth period The H-model equation can be rearranged to calculate the required rate of return as follows:
r=
( )
D0 [(1 + gL) + H(gs – gL)] + gL P0
The Gordon growth formula can be rearranged to calculate the required rate of return given the other variables.
r=
D1 P0
+g
Sustainable growth rate (SGR)
g = b × ROE b = Earnings retention rate, calculated as 1 – Dividend payout ratio
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
DISCOUNTED DIVIDEND VALUATION
ROE can be calculated as: ROE =
Net income Sales Total assets × × Sales Total assets Shareholders’ equity
PRAT model
g = Profit margin × Retention rate × Asset turnover × Financial l everage
g=
Net income - Dividends Net income Sales Total assets × × × Net income Sales Total assets Shareholders’ equity
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
FREE CASH FLOW VALUATION
FREE CASH FLOW VALUATION FCFF/FCFE
Firm Value =
FCFFt
(1+WACC)
t
t =1
WACC =
MV(Debt) MV(Debt) + MV(Equity)
r d (1 Tax Rate) +
MV(Equity) MV(Debt) + MV(Equity)
r
Equity Value = Firm Value Market value of debt
Equity Value =
FCFEt
(1 + r ) t =1
t
Computing FCFF from Net Income
FCFF = NI + NCC + Int(1 Tax Rate) FCInv WCInv Investment in fixed capital (FCInv) FCInv = Capital expenditures Proceeds from sale of long-term assets Investment in working capital (WCInv) WCInv = Change in working capital over the year Working capital = Current assets (exc. cash) Current liabilities (exc. short-term debt)
Table: Noncash Items and FCFF Adjustment to NI to Noncash Item
Arrive at FCFF
Depreciation Amortization and impairment of intangibles Restructuring charges (expense) Restructuring charges (income resulting from reversal) Losses Gains Amortization of long-term bond discounts Amortization of long-term bond premiums Deferred taxes
Added back Added back Added back Subtracted Added back Subtracted Added back Subtracted Added back but requires special attention
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
FREE CASH FLOW VALUATION
Computing FCFF from CFO Table: IFRS versus U.S. GAAP Treatment of Interest and Dividends IFRS
U.S. GAAP
Interest received Interest paid
CFO or CFI CFO or CFF
CFO CFO
Dividend received Dividends paid
CFO or CFI CFO or CFF
CFO CFF
FCFF = CFO + Int(1 Tax rate) FCInv
Computing FCFF from EBIT
FCFF = EBIT(1 – Tax rate) + Dep – FCInv – WCInv
Computing FCFF from EBITDA
FCFF = EBITDA(1 – Tax rate) + Dep(Tax rate) – FCInv – WCInv
Computing FCFE from FCFF
FCFE = FCFF – Int(1– Tax rate) + Net borrowing
Computing FCFE from Net Income
FCFE = NI + NCC – FCInv – WCInv + Net Borrowing
Computing FCFE from CFO
FCFE = CFO + FCInv – Net borrowing
Computing FCFE from EBIT
FCFE = EBIT(1 – Tax rate) – Int(1 – Tax rate) + Dep – FCInv – WCInv + Net borrowing
Computing FCFE from EBITDA
FCFE = EBITDA(1 – Tax rate) – Int(1 – Tax rate) + Dep(Tax rate) – FCInv – WCInv + Net borrowing
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
FREE CASH C ASH FLOW VALUATION VALUATION
Uses of FCFF
Increases in cash balances Plus: Net payments to providers of debt capital + Interest expense (1 – tax rate) rate) + Repayment of principal New borrowings Plus: Net payments to providers of equity capital + Cash dividends + Share repurchases New equity issues = Uses of FCFF Uses of FCFE
Increases in cash balances Plus: Net payments to providers of equity capital c apital + Cash dividends + Share repurchases New equity issues = Uses of FCFE Constant Growth FCFF Valuation Model
Value of the firm =
FCFF1 WACC - g
=
FCFF0 (1 + g) WACC - g
WACC = Weighted average cost of capital g = Long-term constant growth rate in FCFF Constant Growth FCFE Valuation Model
Value of equity =
FCFE1 FCFE0 (1 + g) = - g r - g r -
= Required rate of return on equity r = g = Long-term constant growth rate in FCFE An International Application of the Single-Stage Model
Value of equity =
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
FCFE0 (1 + greal) r real greal
FREE CASH FLOW VALUATION VALUATION
General expression for the two-stage FCFF model: n
Firm value =
FCFFt
(1 + WACC)
t
t=1
+
FCFFn+1
1
(WACC g) (1 + WACC)n
Firm value = PV of FCFF in Stage 1 + Terminal Terminal value × Discount Factor
General expression for the two-stage FCFE model: n
Equity value =
FCFEt
(1 + r)
t
+
FCFFn+1
1
r g
(1 + r)n
t=1
Equity value = PV of FCFE in Stage 1 + Terminal Terminal value × Discount Factor Determining Terminal Value
Terminal value in year n = Justified Trailing P/E × Forecasted Earnings in Year Year n Terminal value in year n = Justified Leading P/E × Forecasted Earnings in Year Year n + 1
Non-operating Assets and Firm Value
Value of the firm = Value of operating assets + Value of non-operating assets
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
MARKET-BASED VALUATION: PRICE AND ENTERPRISE VALUE MULTIPLES
MARKET-BASED VALUATION: PRICE AND ENTERPRISE VALUE MULTIPLES Price to Earnings Ratio
Trailing P/E ratio =
Current Stock Price Last year’s EPS
Forward P/E ratio =
Current Stock Price Expected EPS
Price to Book Ratio
P/B ratio =
P/B ratio =
Market price per share Book value per share Market value of common shareholders’ equity Book value of common shareholders’ equity
Book value of equity = Common shareholders’ equity = Shareholders’ equity – Total value of equity claims that are senior to common stock Book value of equity = Total assets – Total liabilities – Preferred stock Price to Sales Ratio
P/S ratio =
Market price per share Sales per share
Relationship between the P/E ratio and the P/S ratio P/E × Net profit margin = (P / E) × (E / S) = P/S Price to Cash Ratio
P/CF ratio =
Market price per share Free cash flow per share
Dividend Yield
Justified trailing dividend yield Trailing dividend yield = Last year’s dividend / Current price per share Justified leading dividend yield Leading dividend yield = Next year’s year ’s dividend / Current price per share
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
MARKET-BASED VALUATION: PRICE AND ENTERPRISE VALUE MULTIPLES
Justified P/E Multiple Based on Fundamentals
D1
V0 =
(r g)
Justified leading P/E multiple
Justified leading P/E =
P0 E1
=
D1/E1 r g
=
(1 b) r g
(1 – b) is the payout ratio. Justified trailing P/E multiple
Justified trailing P/E =
P0 E0
=
D1/E0 r g
=
D0 (1 g) / E0 r g
=
(1 b)(1 g) r g
Justified P/B Multiple Based on Fundamentals
P0 B0
=
ROE g r g
ROE = Return on equity r = required return on equity g = Sustainable growth rate Justified P/S Multiple Based on Fundamentals
P0 S0
=
(E0/S0)(1 b)(1 g) r g
E0/S0 = Net profit margin 1 – b = Payout ratio Justified P/CF Multiple Based on Fundamentals
FCFE0 (1 g)
V0 =
(r g)
Justified Dividend Yield
D0 P0
=
r g 1 g
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
MARKET-BASED VALUATION: PRICE AND ENTERPRISE VALUE MULTIPLES
P/E-to-growth (PEG) ratio
PEG =
P/E Growth (%)
Terminal price based on fundamentals
TVn = Justified leading P/E Forecasted earningsn +1 TVn = Justified trailing P/E Forecasted earningsn
Terminal price based on comparables
TVn = Benchmark leading P/E Forecasted earningsn +1 TVn = Benchmark trailing P/E Forecasted earningsn
EV/EBITDA Multiple
Enterprise value = Market value of common equity + Market value of preferred stock + Market value of debt – Value of cash and short-term investments EBITDA = Net income + Interest + Taxes + Depreciation and amortization Alternative Denominators in Enterprise Value Value Multiples
Free Cash Net plus minus plus plus less less Flow to the Income Interest Tax Savings Depreciation Amortization Investment in Investment in Firm = Expense on Interest Working Capital Fixed Capital EBITDA= Net plus plus Income Interest Taxes Expense EBITA =
Net plus plus Income Interest Taxes Expense
EBIT =
Net plus plus Income Interest Taxes Expense
plus plus Depreciation Amortization
plus Amortization
Justified forward P/E after accounting for Inflation
P0 E1
=
1
(1 ) I
= The percentage of inflation in costs that the company can pass through to revenue. = Real rate of return I = Rate of inflation
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
MARKET-BASED VALUATION: PRICE AND ENTERPRISE VALUE MULTIPLES
Unexpected earnings (UE)
UEt = EPSt – E (EPS (EPSt) Standardized unexpected earnings (SUE)
SUEt =
EPSt E (EPS (EPSt )
[EPSt E (EPS (EPSt )]
EPSt = Actual EPS for time t (EPSt ) = Expected EPS for time t E (EPS
[EPSt E (EPS (EPSt )] = Standard deviation of [EPSt E (EPS (EPSt )]
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
RESIDUAL INCOME IN COME VALUATION VALUATION
R ESIDUAL ESIDUAL INCOME VALUATION The Residual Income
Residual income = Net income – Equity charge Equity charge = Cost of equity capital × Equity capital Residual income = After-tax operating profit Capital charge Capital charge = Equity charge + Debt charge Debt charge = Cost of debt × (1 – Tax rate) × Debt capital Economic Value Added
EVA = NOPAT – (C% × TC) NOPA NOPAT = Net Net operating profit after tax = EBIT (1 – Tax Tax rate) C% = Cost of capital (WACC) TC = Total capital Market Value Added
MVA = Market value of the company – Accounting book value of total capital Market value of company = Market value of debt + Market value of equity. The Residual Income Model
RIt = Et – (r × Bt-1) RIt = Residual income at time t Et = Earnings at time t r = Required rate of return on equity Bt-1 = Book value at time t-1 Intrinsic value of a stock:
V 0 = B0 +
RIt
(1 + r )
t
i = 1
E t rBt-1
(1 + r )
= B0 +
t
i = 1
V0 = Intrinsic value of the stock today B0 = Current book value per share of equity Bt = Expected book value per share of equity at any time t r = Required rate of return on equity Et = Expected EPS for period t RIt = Expected residual income per share
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
RESIDUAL I NCOME VALUATION
Residual Income Model (Alternative Approach)
RIt = EPSt - (R × Bt-1) RIt = (ROE - r)Bt-1
V0 = B0 +
(ROEt r )Bt-1 (1 + r )t
t = 1
V0 = B0 +
ROE r B0 r g
Tobin’s q
Tobin’s q =
Market value of debt and equity Replacement cost of total assets
Multi-Stage Residual Income Valuation T
V0 = B0 +
t=1
(Et rBt 1) (1 + r)t
+
PT BT (1 + r)T
When residual income fades over time as ROE declines towards the required return on equity, the intrinsic value of a stock is calculated using the following formula:
(E(1 rB + r) T-1
V0 = B0 +
t
t 1) t
t=1
+
ET rBT-1 (1 + r )(1 + r)T1
= Persistence factor. Implied Growth Rate
g=r
[
(ROE r) × B0 V0 B0
]
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
PRIVATE COMPANY VALUATION
PRIVATE COMPANY VALUATION The Capitalized Cash Flow Method
Vf =
FCFF1 WACC gf
Vf = Value of the firm FCFF1 = Free cash flow to the firm for next twelve months WACC = Weighted average cost of capital gf = Sustainable growth rate of free cash flow to the firm
V=
FCFE1 r g
V = Value of the equity FCFE1 = Free cash flow to the equity for next twelve months r = Required return on equity g = Sustainable growth rate of free cash flow to the equity Methods Used to Estimate the Required Rate of Return for a Private Company
Capital Asset Pricing Model Required return on equity = Risk-free rate + (Beta × Market risk premium) Expanded CAPM Required return on equity = Risk-free rate + (Beta × Market risk premium) + Small stock premium + Company-specific risk premium Build-Up Approach Required return on equity = Risk-free rate + Equity risk premium + Small stock premium + Company-specific risk premium + Industry risk premium Discount for Lack of Control (DLOC)
DLOC = 1 -
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
1 1 + Control Premium
PRIVATE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS
PRIVATE R EAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS Net Operating Income
Rental income at full occupancy + Other income (such as parking) = Potential gross income (PGI) Vacancy and collection loss = Effective gross income (EGI) Operating expenses (OE) = Net operating income (NOI) The Direct Capitalization Method
Cap rate = Discount rate – Growth rate The cap rate can be defined as the current yield on an investment:
Capitalization rate =
NOI1 Value
Rearranging the above equation, we can estimate the value of a property by dividing its firstyear NOI by the cap rate.
Value =
NOI1 Cap rate
An estimate of the appropriate cap rate for a property can be obtained from the selling price of similar or comparable properties.
Cap rate =
NOI Sale price of comparable property
The cap rate derived by dividing rent by recent sales prices of comparables is known as theall risks yield (ARY). The value of a property is then calculated as:
Market value =
Rent1 ARY
Other Forms of the Income Approach Gross income multiplier =
Selling price Gross income
Value of subject property = Gross income multiplier Gross income of subject property
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
PRIVATE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS
The Discounted Cash Flow Method (DCF)
Value =
NOI1 (r – g)
The Terminal Capitalization Rate
Terminal value =
NOI for the first year of ownership for the next investor Terminal cap rate
Appraisal-Based Indices
Return =
NOI Capital expenditures + (Ending market value Beginning market value) Beginning market value
Loan to Value ratio
LTV ratio =
Loan amount Appraised value
Debt Service Coverage ratio
DSCR =
NOI Debt service
Equity dividend rate/Cash-on-cash return
Equity dividend rate =
First year cash flow Equity investment
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
PUBLICLY TRADED REAL ESTATE SECURITIES
PUBLICLY TRADED R EAL ESTATE SECURITIES VALUATION: NET ASSET VALUE APPROACH Capitalization rate
Capitalization rate =
NOI of a comparable property Total value of comparable property
Net Asset Value per Share
NAVPS =
Net Asset Value Shares outstanding
VALUATION: RELATIVE VALUATION (PRICE MULTIPLE) APPROACH Funds from operations (FFO)
Accounting net earnings Add: Depreciation charges on real estate Add: Deferred tax charges Add (Less): Losses (gains) from sales of property and debt restructuring Funds from operations Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO)
Funds from operations Less: Non-cash rent Less: Maintenance-type capital expenditures and leasing costs Adjusted funds from operations
AFFO is preferred over FFO as it takes into account the capital expenditures necessary to maintain the economic income of a property portfolio.
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
PRIVATE EQUITY VALUATION
PRIVATE EQUITY VALUATION Quantitative Measures of Return
PIC (paid in capital): Ratio of paid in capital to date to committed capital.
DPI (distributed to paid-in) or cash-on-cash return: Value of cumulative distributions paid to LPs as a proportion of cumulative invested capital. o (DPI = Cumulative distributions / PIC)
RVPI (residual value to paid-in): Value of LPs’ shareholdings held with the fund as a proportion of cumulative invested capital. RVPI = NAV after distributions / PIC o
TVPI (total value to paid-in): Value of portfolio companies’ distributed (realized) and undistributed (unrealized) value as a proportion of cumulative invested capital. TVPI = DPI + RVPI o
NAV before distributions = Prior year’s NAV after distributions + Capital called
down – Management Fees + Operating results NAV after distributions = NAV before distributions – Carried interest – Distributions
Total Exit Value Exit value = Initial cost + Earnings growth + Multiple expansion + Debt reduction
Post-money valuation (POST) POST = PRE + I Proportionate ownership of the VC investor = I / POST
Post-money value Post-money value =
Exit value (1 + Required rate of return ) Number of years to exists
Required wealth Required wealth = Investment (1 + IRR) Number of years to exit Ownership propotion Ownership proportion = Required wealth / Exit value
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
PRIVATE EQUITY VALUATION
Shares to be issued
Shares to be issued =
Proportion of venture capitalist investment Shares held by company founders Proportion of investment of company founders
Price per share Price per share =
Amount of venture capital investment Number of shares issued to venture capital investment
Adjusted discount rate
Adjusted discount rate =
1 + r –1 1–q
r = Discount rate unadjusted for probability of failure. q = Probability of failure.
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
FUNDAMENTALS OF CREDIT ANALYSIS
FUNDAMENTALS OF CREDIT ANALYSIS Expected Loss
Expected loss = Default probability Loss severity given default
Yield on a corporate bond:
Yield on a corporate bond = Real risk-free interest rate + Expected inflation rate + Maturity premium + Liquidity premium + Credit spread
Yield Spread:
Yield spread = Liquidity premium + Credit spread
For small, instantaneous changes in the yield spread, the return impact (i.e. the percentage change in price, including accrued interest) can be estimated using the following formula: Return impact – Modified duration × Spread For larger changes in the yield spread, we must also incorporate the (positive) impact of convexity into our estimate of the return impact: Return impact
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
– (MDur × Spread) + (1/2 × Convexity × Spread2)
TERM STRUCTURE AND VOLATILITY OF INTEREST RATES
TERM STRUCTURE AND VOLATILITY OF INTEREST R ATES Measuring Historical Yield Volatility
X t = 100 ln
yt
( ) yt1
where yt = yield on day t Annualizing the Standard Deviation
Annualized standard deviation = Daily standard deviation of days in a year
Calculating Variance of Daily Yield Changes T
2
T1
Variance =
X t
... assigns an equal weight to all observations
t = 1
T
2
T1
Variance =
W t X t
... attaches a greater weight to more recent information
t = 1
where: W t = the weight assigned to each daily yield change observation such that the sum of the weights equals 1.
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
VALUING BONDS WITH EMBEDDED OPTIONS
VALUING BONDS WITH EMBEDDED OPTIONS Treasury Market Benchmark Spread Measure
Benchmark
Reflects Compensation For
Nominal Zero-volatility Option-adjusted
Treasury yield curve Treasury spot rate curve Treasury spot rate curve
Credit risk, liquidity risk and option risk Credit risk, liquidity risk and option risk Credit risk and liquidity risk
Specific Bond Sector with a Given Credit Rating Benchmark Spread Measure
Benchmark
Reflects Compensation For
Nominal Zero-volatility Option-adjusted
Sector yield curve Sector spot rate curve Sector spot rate curve
Credit risk, liquidity risk and option risk Credit risk, liquidity risk and option risk Credit risk and liquidity risk
Issuer-Specific Benchmark Spread Measure
Benchmark
Reflects Compensation For
Nominal Zero-volatility Option-adjusted
Issuer yield curve Issuer spot rate curve Issuer spot rate curve
Liquidity risk and option risk Liquidity risk and option risk Liquidity risk
Summary of Relationships between Benchmark, OAS and Relative Value Benchmark
Negative OAS
Zero OAS
Positive OAS
Treasury market
Overpriced (rich) security
Overpriced (rich) security
Comparison must be made between security OAS and OAS of comparable securities (required OAS): If security OAS > required OAS, security is cheap If security OAS < required OAS, security is rich If security OAS = required OAS, security is fairly priced
Bond sector with a Overpriced (rich) security given credit rating (assumes credit rating higher (assumes credit rating than security being analyzed ) higher than security being analyzed )
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
Overpriced (rich) Comparison must be made security between security OAS and OAS (assumes credit rating of comparable securities (required OAS): higher than security If security OAS > required OAS, being analyzed ) security is cheap If security OAS < required OAS, security is rich If security OAS = required OAS, security is fairly priced
VALUING BONDS WITH EMBEDDED OPTIONS
Summary of Relationships between Benchmark, OAS and Relative Value (Contd.) Benchmark
Zero OAS
Negative OAS
Positive OAS
Bond sector with a Comparison must be made given credit rating between security OAS and OAS (assumes credit rating of comparable securities (required OAS): lower than security If security OAS > required OAS, being analyzed ) security is cheap If security OAS < required OAS, security is rich If security OAS = required OAS, security is fairly priced
Underpriced (cheap) Underpriced (cheap) security security (assumes credit rating lower than (assumes credit rating security being analyzed ) lower than security being analyzed )
Issuer’s own securities Overpriced (rich) security
Fairly valued
Under priced (cheap) security
Determining Bond Value at a Node Applying Backward Induction Bond's value in higher-rate state 1-year forward
1-year rate at the NHHL node at which we r are calculating the 3,HHL VHHL bond's value, VHHL
VHHHL C r 4,HHHL NHHHL
Cash flow in higher rate state
NHHLL
r 4,HHLL VHHLL
C
Cash flow in lower rate state
Bond's value in lower-rate state 1-year forward
The present values of the these two cash flows discounted at the 1-year rate (r 3,HHL) at Node NHHL are: 1.
2.
( (
VHHHL + C 1 + r 3,HHL VHHLL + C 1 + r 3,HHL
) )
Present value in the higher one-year rate scenario
Present value in the lower one-year rate scenario
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
VALUING BONDS WITH EMBEDDED OPTIONS
Finally, the expected value of the bond, VHHL at Node NHHLis calculated as: 1 2
(
VHHHL + C 1 + r 3,HHL
)( +
VHHLL + C 1 + r 3,HHL
)
Determining Call Option Value
Value of call option = Value of option-free bond – Value of callable bond. Determining Put Option Value
Value of put option = Value of putable bond Value of option-free bond Effective Duration and Effective Convexity
Duration =
V V+ 2V0 ( y)
Convexity =
V V+ 2V0 2V0 ( y)2
Traditional Analysis of a Convertible Security
Conversion value = Market price of common stock Conversion ratio
Market conversion price =
Market price of convertible security Conversion ratio
Market conversion premium per share = Market conversion price Current market price
Market conversion premium ratio =
Premium payback period =
Market price of common stock
Market conversion premium per share Favorable income differential per share
Favorable income differential per share =
Premium over straight value =
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
Market conversion premium per share
Coupon interest (Conversion ratio Common stock dividend per share) Conversion ratio
Market price of convertible bond Straight value
VALUING BONDS WITH EMBEDDED OPTIONS
An Option-Based Valuation Approach
Covertible security value = Straight value Value of the call option on the stock
Covertible callable bond value = Straight value Value of the call option on the stock Value of the call option on the bond
Covertible callable and putable bond value = Straight value Value of the call option on the stock Value of the call option on the bond Value of the put option on the bond
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
MORTGAGE-BACKED SECTOR OF THE BOND MARKET
MORTGAGE-BACKED SECTOR OF THE BOND MARKET Single Monthly Mortality Rate (SMM)
Prepayment in month t
SMMt =
Beginning mortgage balance for month t Scheduled principal payment in month t
Prepayment in month t = SMM × (Beginning mortgage balance for month t Scheduled principal payment in month t )
Conditional Prepayment Rate (CPR)
CPR = 1 (1 SMM)12 Given the CPR, the SMM can be computed as: SMM = 1 (1 CPR )1/12
Average Life
Average life =
T
t Projected principal recieved at time t
t = 1
12 Total principal
t = Number of months Distribution of Prepayment Risk in a Sequential-Pay CMO Tranche
Contraction Risk Extension Risk
A (sequential pay) B (sequential pay) C (sequential pay) Z (accrual pay)
HIGH
LOW
LOW
HIGH
Prepayment Risk in Different PAC Tranches Tranche
Prepayment Risk
PAC I - Senior PAC I - Junior PAC II Support
LOW
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
HIGH
ASSET-BACKED SECTOR OF THE BOND MARKET
ASSET-BACKED SECTOR OF THE BOND MARKET Parties to the Securitization Party
Description
Party in Illustration
Seller
Originates the loans and sells loans to the SPV
ABC Company
Issuer/Trust
The SPV that buys the loans from the seller and issues the asset backed securities
SPV
Servicer
Services the loans
Servicer
Manufactured Housing-Backed Securities
SMM =
ABS =
ABS 1 – [ABS × (M – 1)] SMM 1 + [SMM × (M – 1)]
VALUING MORTGAGE-BACKED AND ASSET-BACKED SECURITIES Cash Flow Yield
ABS and MBS typically have monthly cash flows, so the cash flow yield on these securities is compared to the yield on Treasury coupon securities based on their bond equivalent yields. The bond equivalent yield for MBS/ABS is calculated as: 6
Bond equivalent yield = 2 [(1 + monthly cash flow yield) – 1] Option Cost
Option cost = Zero-volatility spread – Option-adjusted spread Duration Duration =
V V+ 2V0 ( y)
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
DERIVATES
DERIVATIVES
FORWARD MARKETS AND CONTRACTS Value of a Forward Contract Time
Long Position Value
Short Position Value
At initiation
Zero, as the contract is priced to prevent arbitrage
Zero, as the contract is priced to prevent arbitrage
During life of the contract
St
F(0,T)
F(0,T)
(1 + r)T-t
(1 + r)T-t
ST F(0,T)
At expiration
St
F(0,T) ST
Price of an Equity Forward with Discrete Dividends n
PV(D,0,T) =
Di
(1 + r)
ti
i=1
... Approach I
F(0,T) = [S0 – PV(D,0,T)] (1 + r)T n
FV(D,0,T) =
D (1 + r)
Tti
i
... Approach II
i=1
T
F(0,T) = S0 (1 + r) – FV(D,0,T) Price of an Equity Forward with Continuous Dividends c
c
F(0,T) = (S0e T)er T F(0,T) = S0 e(r )T c
c
r c = Continuously compounded risk-free rate
c = Continuously compounded dividend yield Value of an Equity Forward T–t
Vt(0,T) = [St – PV(D,t,T)] – [F(0,T) / (1 + r)
]
PV(D,t,T) = PV of dividends expected to be received over the remainder of the contract term (between t and T). Assuming continuous compounding, the value of a forward contract on a stock index or portfolio can be calculated as: Vt(0,T) = Ste – c(T – t) – F(0,T)e –rc(T – t) St
Vt(0,T) =
ec(T – t)
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
–
F(0,T) erc(T – t)
DERIVATES
Calculating the No-Arbitrage Forward Price for a Forward Contract on a Coupon Bond
F(0,T) = [B0C(T+Y) – PV(CI,0,T)] × (1 + r)T Or F(0,T) = [B0C(T+Y)] (1 + r)T – FV(CI,0,T) BC = Price of coupon bond T = Time of forward contract expiration Y = Remaining maturity of bond upon forward contract expiration T+Y = Time to maturity of the bond at forward contract initiation. PV(CI,0,T) = Present value of coupon interest expected to be received between time 0 (contract initiation) and time T (contract expiration). FV(CI,0,T) = Future value of coupon interest expected to be received between time 0 (contract initiation) and time T (contract expiration).
Valuing a Forward Contract on a Coupon Bond
The value of the long position in a forward contract on a fixed income security prior to expiration can be calculated as: Vt(0,T) = BtC(T+Y) – PV(CI,t,T) – F(0,T) / (1 + r)T – t PV(CI,t,T) = Present value of coupon payments that are expected to be received between time t and time T. C Bt (T+Y) = Current value of coupon bond with time T+Y remaining until maturity Pricing a Forward Rate Agreement
1 + L0(h + m)
( ) ( ) ( ) h+m 360
1
FRA(0,h,m) = 1 + L0( h )
h 360
360 m
FRA(0,h,m) = The annualized rate on an FRA initiated at Day 0, expiring on Day h, and based on m-day LIBOR. h = Number of days until FRA expiration m = Number of days in underlying hypothetical loan h+m = Number of days from FRA initiation until end of term of underlying hypothetical loan. L0 = (Unannualized) LIBOR rate today
© 2013 ELAN GUIDES
DERIVATES
FRA Payoff
FRA payoff =
NP × [(Market LIBOR – FRA rate) × No. of days in the loan term / 360] 1 + [Market LIBOR × (No. of days in the loan term / 360)]
Valuing FRA prior to expiration
NP × [(Current forward rate – FRA rate) × No. of days in the loan term / 360] 1 + {Current LIBOR × [(No. of days in loan term + No. of days till contract expiration) / 360]} Or: 1 + FRA(0,h,m)
1
Vg (0,h,m) =
1 + Lg (h g)
(
h g 360
)
1 + Lg (h + m g)
(
( ) m 360
h + m g 360
)
g = Number of days since FRA initiation. Pricing a Currency Forward Contracts
(1 + R DC)T
F(0,T) = S0 ×
(1 + R FC)T
F and S are quoted in terms of DC per unit of FC R DC = Domestic risk-free rate R FC = Foreign risk-free rate T = Length of the contract in years. Remember to use a 365-day basis to calculate T if the term is given in days. Valuing a Currency Forward Contract
The value of the long position in a currency forward contract at any time prior to maturity can be calculated as follows: Vt (0,T) =
St
(1 + R FC)(Tt)
F (0,T) (1 + R DC)(Tt)
Assuming continuous compounding, the price and value of a currency forward contract can be calculated by applying the formulas below: cFC × T
F(0,T) = (S0e – r
cFC × (T – t)
Vt(0,T) = [St / er
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cDC × T
) × er
cDC – r cFC) × T
or F(0,T) = S0 × e(r cDC × (T – t)
] – [F(0,T) / e r
]
c r here represents a continuously compounded riskfree rate in these formulas.
FUTURES MARKETS AND CONTRACTS
FUTURES MARKETS AND CONTRACTS If we ignore the effects of the mark-to-market adjustment on futures contracts, we can make the simplifying assumption that the futures price and forward price are the same. f 0(T) = F(0,T) = S0 × (1 + r)T f 0(T) = Futures price today of a futures contract that expires at time T. F(0,T) = Forward price of a forward contract that expires at time T. S0 = Spot price of underlying asset today r = Annual risk-free rate The Effect of Storage or Carrying Costs on the Futures Price
f 0(T) = S0 (1 + r)T + FV(SC,0,T) The Effect of Monetary Benefits on the Futures Price
f 0(T) = S0 (1 + r)T FV(CF,0,T) The Effect of Non-Monetary Benefits on the Futures Price
FV(CB,0,T) = Costs of storage – Nonmonetary benefits (Convenience yield) If costs exceed benefits, FV(CB,0,T) is a positive number and is known ascost of carry. In this case, the general futures pricing formula is given as: f 0(T) = S0 (1 + r)T + FV(CB,0,T) Pricing Treasury Bond Futures
f 0(T) = B0C(T+Y) [(1 + r 0(T)]T – FV(CI,0,T) BC = Price of coupon bond T = Time of futures contract expiration Y = Remaining maturity of bond upon futures contract expiration T+Y = Time to maturity of the bond at futures contract initiation. r 0(T) = Interest rate at time 0 for period until time T. FV(CI,0,T) = Future value of coupon interest expected to be received between time 0 (contract initiation) and time T (contract expiration). The adjusted futures price of a t-bond futures contract is calculated as: f 0(T) =
B0C (T + Y) [1 + r 0 (T)]T FV (CI,0,T) CF(T)
CF(T) = Conversion factor on CTD bond
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FUTURES MARKETS AND CONTRACTS
Pricing Stock Index Futures
f 0(T) = S0 (1 + r)T – FV(D,0,T) f 0(T) = S0 e(r – )T c
c
Pricing Currency Futures
f 0(T) = S0
(1 + r DC)T (1 + r FC)T
F and S are quoted in terms of DC/FC r DC = Domestic currency interest rate r FC = Foreign currency interest rate T = Length of the contract in years. Remember to use a 365-day year if maturity is given in days. If interest rates are assumed to be continuously compounded, then the no-arbitrage futures price is calculated as: cDC – r cFC)×T
f 0(T) = S0 × e(r
r c represents the continuously compounded risk-free rate.
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OPTION MARKETS AND CONTRACTS
OPTION MARKETS AND CONTRACTS Put-Call Parity
C0 +
X = P0 + S0 (1 + R F)T
Synthetic Securities Strategy
Consisting of
fiduciary call
long call + long bond
long call
long call
Value
C0 +
X T (1 + R F)
C0
Equals
Strategy
Consisting of
Value
=
Protective put
long put + long underlying asset
P0 + S0
=
long put + long Synthetic call underlying asset + short bond
P0 + S0
X (1 + R F)T
=
long call + short Synthetic put underlying asset + long bond
C0 S0 +
X (1 + R F)T
Synthetic underlying asset
long call + long bond + short put
C0 +
Synthetic bond
long put + long underlying asset + short call
long put
long put
long underlying asset
long underlying asset
S0
=
long bond
long bond
X (1 + R F)T
=
P0
X (1 + R F)T
P0
P0 + S0 C0
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OPTION MARKETS AND CONTRACTS
One-Period Binomial Model
Computing the two possible values of the stock: S+ = Su S- = Sd Binomia Call Option Pricing
Call payoff = Max(0, S+ – X) Binomial Put Option Pricing
Put payoff = Max (0, X – ST) Compute the risk-neutral probabilities:
=
(1 + r d (u d)
Calculating the value of the call option:
c+ + (1 – ) c-
c=
1 + r
Calculating the value of the put option:
p =
p+ + (1 – ) p1 + r
Hedge Ratio
n=
c+ cS+ S-
Intrinsic value of caplet at expiration:
Caplet value =
Max {0, [(One-year rate – Cap rate) Notional principal]} 1 + One-year rate
Intrinsic value of floorlet at expiration:
Floorlet value =
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max {0, [(Floor rate – One-year rate) Notional principal]} 1 + One-year rate
OPTION MARKETS AND CONTRACTS
The Black-Scholes-Merton Formula c
c = S0 N(d1) Xer T N(d2) c
p = Xe-r T[1 N(d2)] S0[1 N(d1)] Where: d1 =
ln(S0 X) + [r c + (
d2 = d1
= the annualized standard deviation of the continuously compounded return on the stock r c = the continuously compounded risk-free rate of return N(d1) = Cumulative normal probability of d1. Delta
Delta =
Change in option price Change in underlying price
Change in option price = Delta Change in underlying price An approximate measure for option delta can be obtained from the BSM model: N(d1) from the BSM model approximately equals call option delta. N(d1) – 1 approximately equals put option delta. Therefore: c N(d1) S p N(d1) – 1] S Put-Call Parity for Forward Contracts Value at Expiration ST X
Transaction
Current Value
Call and Bond Buy call Buy bond Total
c0 [X – F(0,T)]/(1 + r)T c0 + [X – F(0,T)]/(1 + r)T
0 X – F(0,T) X – F(0,T)
ST – X X – F(0,T) ST – F(0,T)
p
X – ST ST – F(0,T) X – F(0,T)
0 ST – F(0,T) ST – F(0,T)
Put and Forward Buy put Buy forward contract Total
0
0 p0
ST > X
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OPTION MARKETS AND CONTRACTS
Put-call-forward parity c0 +
X – F(0,T) (1 + r)T
= p0
Forward Contract and Synthetic Forward Contract Value at Expiration Transaction
ST X
Current Value
Forward Contract Long forward contract Synthetic Forward Contract Buy call Sell put Buy (or sell) bond Total
ST > X
0
ST – F(0,T)
ST – F(0,T)
c0 – p0
0 – ( X – ST) X – F(0,T) ST – F(0,T)
ST – X 0 X – F(0,T) ST – F(0,T)
T
[X – F(0,T)]/(1 + r) T c0 – p0 + [X – F(0,T)]/(1 + r)
The Black Model
The Black model is used to price European options on futures. c
c = er T [f 0(T)N(d1) XN(d2)] c
p = er T (X[1 N(d2)] f 0(T)[1 N(d1)]) Where: d1 =
ln(f 0(T) X) + (
d2 = d1
f 0(T) = the futures price c
Notice that the Black model is similar to the BSM model except that er T f(T) is substituted for S0. In fact, the price of a European option on a forward or futures would be the same as the price of a European option on the underlying asset if the options and the forward/futures contract expire at the same point in time.
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SWAP MARKETS AND CONTRACTS
SWAP MARKETS AND CONTRACTS The Swap Fixed Rate
Swap fixed rate =
(
1 B0(N) B0(1) + B0(2) + B0(3) + ... + B0(N)
)
100
Valuing a Swap
Value of pay-fixed side of plain-vanilla interest rate swap: Present value of floating-rate payments Present value of fixed-rate payments Value of pay-floating side of plain-vanilla interest rate swap: Present value of fixed-rate payments Present value of floating-rate payments
Valuing Equity Swaps
‘Pay a fixed rate and receive the return on equity’ swap [(1 + Return on equity) Notional principal] PV of the remaining fixed-rate payments ‘Pay a floating rate and receive the return on equity’ swap [(1 + Return on equity) Notional principal] PV (Next coupon payment + Par value) The value of a ‘pay the return on one equity instrument and receive the return on another equity instrument’ swap is calculated as the difference between the values of the two (hypothetical) equity portfolios: [(1 + Return on Index 2) NP] – [(1 + Return on Index 1) NP]
Payer swaption
(Market fixed-rate – Exercise rate)
No. of days in the payment period 360
Notional principal
Receiver swaption
(Exercise rate – Market fixed-rate)
No. of days in the payment period 360
Notional principal
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INTEREST RATE DERIVATIVE INSTRUMENTS
INTEREST R ATE DERIVATIVE INSTRUMENTS Table: Caps, Floors, Interest Rate Options, Bond Options and Interest Rates Security Benefits when…
Long cap (floor) Long call (put) option on interest rates Long call (put) option on a fixed income instrument
Interest rates rise (fall) Interest rates rise (fall) Interest rates fall (rise)
Payoff to the buyer of an interest rate cap
Payoff = Max [0,(Market interest-rate – Cap rate)
No. of days 360
Notional principal]
Payoff to the buyer of an interest rate floor
Payoff = Max [0,(Floor rate – Market interest-rate)
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No. of days 360
Notional principal]
PORTFOLIO CONCEPTS
PORTFOLIO CONCEPTS Expected return on Two-Asset Portfolio
E(R P) = w1E(R 1) + w2E(R 2) E(R 1) = expected return on Asset 1 E(R 2) = expected return on Asset 2 w1 = weight of Asset 1 in the portfolio w2 = weight of Asset 2 in the portfolio Variance of 2-asset portfolio:
2P = w1221 + w2222 + 2w1w2 12 1= the standard deviation of return on Asset 1 2= the standard deviation of return on Asset 2 = the correlation between the two assets’ returns Variance of 2-asset portfolio:
P2 = w1221 + w2222 + 2w1w2Cov1,2 Cov1,2 = 12 Expected Return and Standard Deviation for a Three-Asset Portfolio
Expected return on 3-asset portfolio: E(R P) = w1E(R 1) + w2E(R 2) + w3E(R 3) Variance of 3-asset portfolio:
P2 = w1212 + w2222 + w3223 + 2w1w2 12 + 2w1w3 13 + 2w2w3 23 Variance of 3-asset portfolio:
P2 = w1212 + w2222 + w3223 + 2w1w2Cov + 2w1w3Cov + 2w2w3Cov
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PORTFOLIO CONCEPTS
Expected Return and Variance of the Portfolio
For a portfolio of n assets, the expected return on the portfolio is calculated as: n
E(R P) =
w E(R ) j
j
j=1
The variance of the portfolio is calculated as: n
2 = P
n
w w Cov(R ,R ) i j
i
j
i=1 j=1
Variance of an Equally-weighted Portfolio
P2 =
1 n
2P = 2
2 +
(
1 n
n 1 Cov n
+
)
Expected Return for a Portfolio Containing a Risky Asset and the Risk-Free Asset
E(R P) = RFR + P
[E(R i) RFR]
i
Standard Deviation of a Portfolio Containing a Risky Asset and the Risk-Free Asset
P = wii
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PORTFOLIO CONCEPTS
CML
Expected return on portfolios that lie on CML: E(R P) = w1R f + (1 w1)E(R m) Variance of portfolios that lie on CML:
2 = w12f 2 + (1 w1)2m2 + 2w1(1 w1)Cov(R f , R m) Equation of CML: E(R P) = R f +
E(R m) R f
m
P
Calculation and Interpretation of Beta
i
Cov(R i,R m)
2 m
i,mi,m i,m i 2 m m
The Capital Asset Pricing Model
E(R i) R f + i[E(R m) – R f ]
The Decision to Add an Investment to an Existing Portfolio
E(R new) R F
new
E(R p) R F
p
Corr(R new,R p)
Market Model Estimates
R i = i + i R M + i R i = Return on asset i R M = Return on the market portfolio i = Average return on asset i unrelated to the market return i = Sensitivity of the return on asset i to the return on the market portfolio i = An error term
i is the slope in the market model. It represents the increase in the return on asset i if
the market return increases by one percentage point. i is the intercept term. It represents the predicted return on asset i if the return on the market equals 0.
Expected return on asset i E(R i) = i + iE(R M)
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PORTFOLIO CONCEPTS
Variance of the return on asset i 2 Var(R i) = 2i M + 2i
Covariance of the returns on asset i and asset j Cov(R i,R j) = i j2
M
Correlation of returns between assets i and j
Corr(R i,R j) =
i jM2 2 2 (2i M + 2 )1/2 ( j2M + 2 )1/2 i
j
Market Model Estimates: Adjusted Beta Adjusted beta = 0.333 + 0.667 (Historical beta)
Macroeconomic Factor Models
R i = ai + bi1FINT + bi2FGDP + i R i = the return to stock i ai = the expected return to stock i FINT = the surprise in interest rates FGDP = the surprise in GDP growth bi1 = the sensitivity of the return on stock i to surprises in interest rates. bi2 = the sensitivity of the return on stock i to surprises in GDP growth. i = an error term with a zero mean that represents the portion of the return to stock i that is not explained by the factor model. Fundamental Factor Models
R i = ai + bi1FDY + bi2FPE + i R i = the return to stock i ai = intercept FDY = return associated with the dividend yield factor FPE = return associated with the P-E factor bi1 = the sensitivity of the return on stock i to the dividend yield factor. bi2 = the sensitivity of the return on stock i to the P-E factor. i = an error term Standardized sensitivities are computed as follows: bij =
Assets i’s attribute value Average attribute value Attribute values)
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PORTFOLIO CONCEPTS
Arbitrage Pricing Theory and the Factor Model
E(R P ) = R F + 1 p, p,
E(R p) = Expected return on the portfolio p R F = Risk-free rate j = Risk premium for factor j p,j = Sensitivity of the portfolio to factor j K = Number of factors Active Risk
TE = s(R p R B) Active risk squared = s2(R p R B) Active risk squared = Active factor risk + Active specific risk n
Active specific risk =
w i=1
a i i
Where: wai = The ith asset’s active weight in the portfolio (i.e., the difference between the asset’s weight in the portfolio and its weight in the benchmark). i = The residual risk of the ith asset (i.e., the variance of the ith asset’s returns that is not explained by the factors). Active factor risk = Active risk squared – Active specific risk.
Active Return
Active return = R p – R B Active return = Return from fctor tilts + Return from asset selection K
Active return =
[(Portfolio sensitivity) (Benchmark sensitivity) ] (Factor return) + Asset selection j
j
j
j=1
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PORTFOLIO CONCEPTS
Factor’s Marginal Contribution to Active Risk Squared (FMCAR) K
b ja
FMCAR j =
FMCAR j =
b Cov(F ,F ) a i
j
i
i=1
Active risk squared Active factor risk Active risk squared
where: b ja = The portfolio’s active exposure to factor j K
b ja
b Cov(F ,F ) = The active factor risk for factor j a i
j
i
i=1
The Information Ratio
IR =
R p R B s(R p R B)
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THE THEORY OF ACTIVE PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
THE THEORY OF ACTIVE PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT Weight of security k in the active portfolio (Portfolio A) wk =
k / ek n
i / ei i=1
The expression for the optimal weight, w*, of the active portfolio (Portfolio A) in the optimal risky portfolio (Portfolio P) is given as:
A
w* =
A(1 A) + R M
2(e A) 2 M
Assuming (for simplicity) that the beta of Portfolio A equals 1, the optimal weight, w0, of Portfolio A in Portfolio P is calculated as:
A
A /2(e A) = w0 = 2 R M /2 M (e A) R M
2 M If the beta of Portfolio A does not equal 1, we can use the following equation to determine the optimal weight, w*, of Portfolio A in Portfolio P. w* =
w0
(1 A)w0
Evaluation of Performance
Sharpe Ratio The Sharpe ratio of the optimal risky portfolio (Portfolio P) can be separated into contributions from the market and active portfolio as follows: 2
2 A R M A 2 2 S P = S M + 2 = + (e A) M (e A)
2
Information Ratio
A (e A)
2
n
=
i=1
i (ei)
2
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THE THEORY OF ACTIVE PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
Imperfect Forecasts of Alpha Values
Actual (realized) alpha: R R M To measure the forecasting accuracy of the analyst, we can regress alpha forecasts ( f ) on realized alpha ().
f a a For simplicity, we assume that a and a equal 0 and 1 respectively. Given that forecast errors () are uncorrelated with true alpha () i.e., Cov, equals 0, the variance of the forecast is given as:
f + We can evaluate the quality of the analyst’s forecasts by calculating the coefficient of determination of the regression described above.
R f +
This estimate of R 2 is used as a shrinking factor to adjust the analyst’s forecasts of alpha.
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