Maldini Sports Betting

Maldini Sports Betting

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. OVERVIEW 1.1.-Introduction -Know yourself -Know Opponent 1.2.-Terms Glossary 1.3.-General View -The Bets -The Rules -The Strategy 2. ANALYSIS 2.1.-Analysis and Selection Criteria 2.2.-Team Analysis 2.3-Match Analysis 2.4.-League Analysis 2.5.-Odds Analysis 3. BETTING 3.1.-Bet Types 4. MONEY MANAGEMENT 4.1.-Systems 4.2-Spread Betting 4.3.-Risk-free Bets 4.4.-Staking Plan 5. TRACKING 5.1.-Betting Record 5.2-Check List 6. BETTING STRATEGY 7. PSYCHOLOGY 7.1.-Common Problems 7.2.-Winning Edges -Profiling Gamblers -Essential Qualities

1. OVERVIEW

1.1. INTRODUCTION

In the sports betting, there are 2 parts involved: you and the sportsbook. In this book you will learn everything you need to present yourself at the game and to show your best abilities. Specifically, you will learn how to win by building your own strategy and changing it when you are not satisfied with the results. After completing this book you will know what every other bettor in the world knows. No important issue will be left outside of your knowledge. You will learn the HOW and also the most important WHY of sports betting. So let’s get down to business.

Know yourself With sportsbetting as with everything else in life, it's important to set yourself a goal. If you don't have a goal with your betting, it may get out of hand. You may start betting every day, you may start betting harder to make up for earlier losses, you suddenly place impulsive bets, and the whole thing can become rather unpleasant. Therefore, take a few moments thinking over the following: •

Risk profile. Who am I to tell you how you're going to bet, and where to place your bets ? You're right, I can only suggest, not command. There are no correct answers to how you should bet to make money. It all depends (among other things) on your risk profile. Therefore, an answer can only be given when you know your willingness to take risks. A bettor who wants to win big money fast, often has a risky way of betting (betting on outsiders, often with high stakes). The opposite is the bettor who's content with making a 10% profit on his bets. He has a rather low risk profile, and places his bets on a big favorite at low prices and very often with low stakes aswell.

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Long term/short term. This is one of the most important things to decide. Do you bet on a short term basis, or long term ? If you bet long term, you're probably willing to bet on outsiders, with a relativly low matemathical chance of winning. In that way, you don't have to win each time, but when you do win, you win a lot because the odds on outsiders are high. The question is: Have you got the patience to wait for the outsider. Will you loose patience, and start changing your strategy ? The short-term bettor will most likely bet on big favorites at small prices, and often with high stakes. He will feel he's winning often , but when he wins, the payback is so small, that one loss, and it's all down to scratch again. This is due to the bookie's fear

of favorites. The relative value on favorites is often very slim, due to the fact that the bookie fear the favorites big chance of winning (thus a large payout for the bookie, as most bettors bet on big favorites). In other words, you get less value out of each bet when you bet on big favorites, because they don't win as often as the prices offered reflect. •

"Modus operandi". Some people fancy a bet just to have some excitement watching a televised footballmatch or sport event. And that's OK. They don't care too much whether they win or loose. It's just for the sake of entertainment. And these people don't bet everyday, they've got a relaxed relation to sports betting. The opposite is bettors who intend to win money on their betting, big money. Often these bettors need to play often, and they bet on low-priced games, which the bookie is very aware of, and therefore has slashed the odds notably. Therefore, these bettors don't get the long-term value which high-odds often provide. But what happens when the "entertainment-bettor" suddenly starts winning ? Yes, correct, he suddenly starts increasing his stakes, because he feels he has been lucky or clever, he's betting more often than before, and then suddenly his money has gone. This is a result of human behaviour. It seems as if we, for some strange reason, want to loose the money we've won. When we win, we don't stop, and say: "Allright, I'm satisfied". No, we stretch the limits further, and suddenly we start loosing. And when we've crossed the limits, we really don't notice it, because now we're trying to get back what we've "lost". And then everything start going downhill. If you started with 100 $, then winning 500 $, you've got a nice profit. Instead of taking the profit, you stretch the limits further, and suddenly you're down to 300 $. Still you've got a 200 % payoff, but you'll feel that 300 on the way down is much less than 300 on the way up, and therefore you'll continue betting without taking the 200 $ profit. Chances are that your profit has disappeared before you even realise what's happening... This is somewhat self destructive, but it can be dealt with if you've got a minimum of self dicipline.

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Dicipline. When you win, don't feel unbeatable, and start increasing your stakes straight away. Continue where you started, and remember that even though it's easy to win, it's even easier to loose what you've just gained. Ofcourse you should take your chances when you're in a winning streak, but keep in mind it's very easy to let it all get out of hand. When you're loosing, don't get tempted into irrational actions (dramaticly increasing the stakes, changing your strategy, bet on more games, etc). If your strategy has worked before, it will work again, it's all about dicipline and patience. Sometimes you will hit a bad run, and this is the time to show dicipline. Maybe take a few weeks break from betting, do something else and come back later.

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Time. Have you got the time to gather info about the participants in the events, or do you just put in a bet every know and then just for the sake of excitement ? Analyse what kind of time you're willing to use on this hobby, and act thereafter.

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Money How much money have I got at my disposal ? How much can I afford to loose ? Never

bet with borrowed money. Do not bet whith money who's intended used for housekeeping or other more important things than sports betting. Always keep in mind that you can loose all your money. Set yourself a target, and take the profit when you've reached the target, then start all over again. Example: If you start with 100 $, set a target of 500$. If you reach 500$, order a payout of 400$, and continue with your initial 100$. In this way, you'll see the fruits of your work, real cash, not only virtual money on the bookie's server. •

Naturally interrested ? Are you really interrested in sports, or do you bet just for the sake of the possible profit? If you enjoy sports, it's much easier to keep updated on what's going on, thus maybe having an extra edge on the bookie. If you feel that the whole thing is getting boring and no fun anymore, then it's time to call it a day. Do not bet just for the sake of a bet. When the motivation is gone, there's a big chance that you will lose patience and interest, and finally your money.

Know Opponent Before you start with online betting, it's very smart to gather som info about the "opposition", i.e the sportsbook. It's a good advice to follow this little checklist before placing your money in the sportsbooks account: •

Reliability/Credibility. Is it a recognised bookie ? A well known name, with a proven track record ? In other words: Is your money safe ? Check for words on the street, and among other bettors. Is the bookie unreliable, or very late with his payouts, etc, then have a look elsewhere. Listen to the grapevine, and pay attention to what others have to say about the bookie.

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Methods of payment. The bookie should have several methods of payouts, not only by bank check, but also by credit cards. I find it most convenient using a credit card in all my transactions with bookies. It may be wise to open a new VISA account, separated from your salaryaccount.

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Rules. It's a must to know the rules in every game you play, and it's the same story here. Read the rules, and send an email and ask the bookie if you are unsure about something. Avoid bookies who do not accept straights. If the bookie only accepts parlays or teasers, find another Luckily, competition in the bookmaking market has grown tougher, and as a result, most bookies these days offer straight wagers on every game and in every sport.

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Taxes. Private sportsbooks pay taxes to the country they operate in. In some countries, the bookie pay the bettor's tax aswell as it's own taxes. When betting with online sportsbooks, you should not accept taxes on your winnings. In England, the law states

that bettors must pay a tax of 9% on their winnings. Do not accept to pay taxes on your winnings, unless you are situated in Britain and with local sportsbooks. (abide the law !!!). Online sportsbooks do not charge taxes on a bettors winnings. •

Prices. What kind of odds is your bookie offering ? How is the odds compared to what others offer on the same event ? Does the bookie change the odds a lot, and is the bookie presenting his prices for events early in the week ? Even though the bookies do alter their odds (often done on popular events, such as superbowl, Stanley Cup final etc), you should get the odds which was offered at the time you placed your bet. If the bookie alter the odds on your event after you've placed your bet, and your odds changes as a result of this, go find another bookie. The bookie's behaviour is then nothing but unacceptable and he's not worthy an honest customer like yourself. Normally this is not a problem, but have been known to occur from time to time.

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Maximum winnings. Check if your bookie has got a very low maximum winnings. For the average bettor, this is not important, but for the tough guys, who bet 10 grand rather than a tenner now and then, this can be of some importance.

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Minimum deposits Hopefully you will only have to deposit your hard-earned cash once, but it can be worth having a look at the bookies' rules regarding minimum deposits. Some bookies demand a fortune in deposits. Stay away from these vultures !

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Events offered. The worst thing a bookie can do, is not offering lousy prices. Infact, the worst thing is not offering you the opportunity to bet on an event. Some bookies only offer odds on the top leagues, and never bother about minor leagues. It's a major "pre" if your bookie offer as many events as possible, not only soccer, but all kinds of sports. The clever bookie knows, of course, that when many events are offered, the chances are that bettors will bet on more events than they originally had in mind, thus increasing the bookies chance of profit. Private bookies do generally offer most events.Do not accept bookies who only cover a few sports, and bookies who do not offer you the chance to bet on lower leagues, or who often exclude big favorites from their event list.

1.2. GLOSSARY TERMS

10 Cent Line - The money line difference (10 cents) between what a bettor would lay with the favorite or take back with the underdog; see Dime Line

20 Cent Line - The money line difference (20 cents) between what a bettor would lay with the favorite or take back with the underdog A Across The Board - A method of wagering on a horse to win, place and show Action - A wager of any kind B Bad Beat - Tough Loss Beard - Messenger bettor Buck - $100 Bookie -A person or business that sets the line on sports events and takes bets. Also known as the book, the man, the store, sportsbook.

C Chalk - Favorite Circled Game - Game where action is limited due to uncertainties about weather, injuries, etc. Cover - Win by more than the pointspread D Dead Heat - When two horses finish in a tie Dime - $1000 Dime Line - Slang used to designate the 10 cent money line. The money line difference (10 cents) between what a bettor would lay with the favorite or take back with the underdog; see 10 Cent Line. Dog - Underdog Dollar - $100 Double Header - Two separate baseball games played on the same day for the same two teams E Edge - Advantage

Even Money - A wager on which neither side lays any odds or vigorish Exotic Bet - Action other than a straight bet or parlay Exposure - The amount of money one actually stands to lose on a game or race Favorite - The contestant in any given contest that is considered the most talented, or has the best chance to win the contest Final Four - Final four teams in the NCAA basketball tournament Firing - Betting a lot. A player who is "firing" is wagering large sums "Foots" - Slang word used sometimes for football Futures - Wagers made, or lines/odds posted on an event or outcome taking place some time in the future, e.g. betting during the season on the Super Bowl winner. G Get Down - Make a bet Grand Slam - The four major tennis tournaments: Wimbledon, Australian Open, French Open, U.S. Open. Also the four major golf tournaments: The Masters, U.S. Open, British Open, PGA Championship (Professional Golf Association). Also in baseball, a homerun with the bases loaded, scoring four runs. Grand Salami - A slang word for the over/under total for the combined score of all the hockey contests on the schedule for that day. H Halftime Line - A line on only the first half, or only the second half scoring of a football or basketball game Handicapper - One who studies sports and predicts outcomes Hedge - Bet the opposite of your original wager in order to reduce the amount of exposure you have on a game Hook - Half point in pointspreads "Hoops" - Slang word used to indicate the game of basketball Home Field Advantage - Edge the home team is expected to have as a result of familiarity with the playing area, favorable demographics and effect of travel on the visiting team Hoops - Basketball Hot Tip - Information the sportsbook is not yet privy to.

I IBF - International Boxing Federation J Juice - Sportsbook’s commission, most often refers to the 11 to 10 football bettors lay on straight wagers. Also known as vigorish. L Lay the Points - A wager on a favorite in a pointspread contest Lay The Price - A wager on a favorite in a money line contest Limit - Maximum bet accepted by the house before the price will be changed Line - The money line, odds, or pointspread of any given contest Listed Pitcher (LP) - The pitcher or pitchers listed by Las Vegas odds makers as probable starting pitchers for a scheduled baseball game Lock - Easy Winner Longshot - Large underdog M Middle - To win both sides of a game. For example, if you bet the underdog +3 1/2 and the favorite -2 1/2 and the favorite wins by 3, you've middled the book. The book has been middled. MLB - Major League Baseball Moneyline - The amount you must bet to win 100 or the amount you win if you bet 100 MVP - Most Valuable Player. Leagues give MVP Awards to the best regular-season and to the outstanding player in championship games or series. N NBA - National Basketball Association NCAA - National Collegiate Athletic Association Neutral Site - Arena, court or field where neither side has a home field advantage NFL - National Football League

NHL - National Hockey League Nickel - $500 NIT - National Invitational Tournament O Off The Board - Game where no bets are being accepted Over/Under - A bet on whether the combined total of the points/goals scored by the two teams will exceed or be less than a specified number Overlay - When the odds on a proposition are in favor of the bettor rather than the house Overtime - The continuance of a contest that is tied at the end of regulation time until a winner is determined or the maximum number of overtime periods have expired. P Parlay - A bet with two or more teams where all the teams must win for the bettor to be successful Past Post - To make a bet after an event has started Penny Line - A money line that is adjusted in increments of a penny, or one cent at a time Pick or Pick'em - A game where neither team is favored Player - Bettor, gambler Pointspread - The handicap, or head start, which the favorite gives to the underdog for betting purposes Press - To bet a larger amount than usual Price - The moneyline odds on the favorite of a given match "Pucks" - A slang word used to indicate the game of hockey Puppy - Underdog Push - A tie between the bettor and the sportsbook that is the result of the score of an event falling exactly on the pointspread number, or the total points number R Rain Out - A contest that has been canceled because of bad weather Round Robin - A series of parlays. A three-team round robin consists of one three-team

parlay and three two-team parlays Rundown - Line update Runner - Messenger bettor; see beard Ryder Cup - A golf tournament between American and European golfers that is staged every two years S Scalper - One who attempts to profit from the differences in odds from book to book by betting both sides of the same game at different prices Score - To win a lot of money Scratch - Withdraw; cancel Sharp - Wise guy Side - To win one side and tie the other. For example, if you lay -2 1/2 and take 3 on the same game and the favorite wins by 3 you have sided the book. The book has been sided. Side Bet/Side Wager - A wager on a particular team, or side, to win a contest Soft Line - A wagering line that is not current with the true posted line. A line that has been adjusted or moved as a result of action and does not reflect the true line as posted. Spread - An abbreviated form of pointspread Stanley Cup - NHL Championship Steam - When a betting line starts to move quite rapidly. Most "steam games" do not necessarily reflect the "right side", but are games that the mass of bettors somehow decide to key on Straight Bet - A single wager on a selected side or over/under Sudden Death - An overtime period in which the first contestant to score is declared the winner of the contest Superbowl - NFL Championship game T Take A Price - A wager on the underdog in a moneyline contest Take The Points - A wager on the underdog in a pointspread contest Teaser - A bet on 2 or more teams where the line on each team is adjusted in the favor of the

bettor. Like a Parlay, all selections must be correct for the teaser to win The Big Dance - The 64 team, post season college basketball championship tournament Toss Up - Game where the line is close to pick-em Total - The line on a given contest, representing the combined number of points/goals scored by the two teams; see over/under Tout Service - A business that sells opinions on sporting events U Underdog - - The contestant in any given contest that is considered the least talented, or has the least chance to win the contest Underlay - When the odds on a proposition are in favor of the house V Value - An overlay Vigorish - Sportsbook's commission, most often refers to the 11 to 10 football bettors lay on straight wagers. Also known as juice. W WBA - World Boxing Association WBC - World Boxing Council Wise Guy - Established and successful sports bettor WNBA - Womens National Basketball Association World Series - MLB championship; The final seven games of the baseball playoffs between the two league champions to determine the world champion

1.3. GENERAL VIEW

The Bets Straight Wager: A straight wager is a wager on one particular team or side to win a game. The straight wager is the most common wager placed. We will focus on Baseball and

Football. Once you are comfortable with Baseball you will be able to process wagers on Hockey as they are very similar. As well, once you are comfortable with football you will be able to process wagers on Basketball as they are also identical. Types of Straight Wagers: A. Pointspread Wager: Pointspread wagering is only offered for Football and Basketball B. Moneyline Wager: Moneyline wagering is offered for all four major sports C. Over/Under Wager: Over/Under wagering is offered for all four major sports D. Run Line Wager: Run Line wagering is only offered for Baseball

A. Pointspread Wager: The pointspread wager is the standard wager for Football and Basketball. On a pointspread wager, the team wagered on must win by the pointspread for the player to win the wager. Example: (Football) The posted line on the football game between the Denver Broncos and the Oakland Raiders is Denver –7. The 7 points is considered the "Pointspread." Denver at –7 is considered to be the favorite, and Oakland at +7 is considered to be the underdog. Visiting Team: Denver –7 Home Team: Oakland +7 *** Visiting Team is Player A has two wagering options on this game: •

Option #1: The player can wager on Denver at –7. If Player A wants to win $100 on Denver, they must bet (or risk) $110. For the player to win the wager, Denver must win by more than 7 points. If Denver wins the game 28-10, Player A wins $100. Player A won the bet because Denver won by 18, which is more than the –7 pointspread. However, if Denver loses 10-28, the player loses the $110 bet. If Denver Wins by exactly 7 points, the wager is considered a "Push" and the original funds are refunded back to the players wagering account.

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Option #2: The player can wager on Oakland at +7. If the player wants to win $100 on Oakland, they must risk $110. For the player to win the wager, Oakland must either win the game, or lose by less than 7 points. If they lose by exactly 7, the wager is

considered a "Push" and the original funds are refunded back to the players wagering account. Example 2: (Football) Arizona Cardinals +10 New Orleans Saints –10 •

Player B wants to win $50 on the underdog, Arizona +10. The official wager would be risking $55 to win $50 on Arizona +10. If Arizona loses by exactly 10 points, the wager is a push and the funds are refunded. If Arizona loses by less than 10 points, or wins the game, player B wins $50. If Arizona loses by more than 10 points, player B loses $55.

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Player C wants to win $200 on New Orleans –10. The official wager would be risking $220 to win $200 on New Orleans –10. If New Orleans wins by exactly 10 points, the wager is a push and the funds are refunded. If New Orleans wins by less than 10 points, player C loses $55. If New Orleans wins by more than 10 points, player C wins $50.

B. Moneyline Wager: The moneyline wager is used in all four of the major sports, but is the standard wager for betting on Baseball and Hockey. Moneyline wagering is simply wagering on the contest based on a given price rather than a pointspread. The team wagered on simply has to win the game for the player to win their bet. Example 1: (Baseball) The posted line on the baseball game between the Atlanta Braves and the New York Yankees is Atlanta +135 and the New York Yankees –155. The Yankees at –155 are considered to be the favorite, and the Braves at +135 are considered to be the underdog. The team with a minus (-) sign next to them is always the favorite and the team with a plus (+) sign, or no sign at all, is always the underdog.

Visiting Team: Atlanta Braves +135 Home Team: NY Yankees -155 A player has two wagering options on this game: •

Option #1: The player can wager on the Braves at +135. If the player bets $100 on the Braves and the Braves win 5-1, then the player wins $135. However if the Braves lose

1-5 they lose the $100 they risked. The Braves simply have to win the game for the player to win the wager. •

Option #2: The player can wager on the Yankees -155. If the player wants to win $100 on the Yankees, then they must wager $155 to win $100. If the Yankees win the game 4-0 then the player wins $100. If the Yankess lose the game 0-4, the player loses the $155 they risked. The Yankees simply have to win the game for the player to win the wager.

Example 2: (Baseball) Cleveland Indians +120 Chicago White Sox –140 •

Player A places a wager on Cleveland +120 for $100. If Cleveland wins the game, the player wins $120. If Cleveland loses the game, the player loses $100.

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Player B places a wager on Chicago –140 to win $100. To win $100 the player must risk $140; this is because the line on Chicago is –140. If Chicago wins the game, the player wins $100. If Chicago loses the game, the player loses $140.

C. Over/Under Wager: The Over/Under wager is used in all four major sports and is an extremely popular wager. The Over/Under wager is a wagering option where the player must choose to bet Over the listed total, or Under the listed total. With an over/under wager, the total points of the contest by both teams, overtime included, must fall over or under the side selected. On an Over/Under wager, the total points the wager is based on is called the "TOTAL." Example 1: (Football) The posted line on the football game between San Francisco and St. Louis is: San Francisco +7

Over/Under: 42 Points

St. Louis -7 The Over/Under points listed at 42 is called the "TOTAL" for the game Example 2: (Football) The posted line on the Football game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Cincinnati Bengals is Cincinnati –6 with the Total of 44 ½. This poinspread is listed as follows: Philadelphia +6 Cincinnati -6

Total: 44 ½

The Player has 4 wagering options on this game, they can bet on Philadelphia +6, Cincinnati – 6, Over 44 ½ points, or Under 44 ½ points. The only 2 wagering options we will consider in this example is the Over 44 ½ and the Under 44 ½. •

Option #1: Player A wagers $550 to win $500 on the Over 44 ½. For Player A to Win his wager, the total combined points of both teams must exceed 44 ½. If the final Score is 31-24, Player A would win $500 because the score exceeded 441/2. If the final score is 20-10, Player A loses his $550 wager because the total combined score was only 30 points, which is Under 44 ½.

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Option #2: Player B wagers $330 to win $300 on the Under 44 ½. For Player B to Win his wager, the total combined points of both teams must fall below 44 ½. The Example 3: (Baseball)

Atlanta Braves +125 Baltimore Orioles -145 •

Total: 9 ½ Under –120 Over +100

Over/Under wagers can also have a moneyline. This will be provided to you by the software and needs no additional training. You only need to be able to Quote the line correctly, which is covered thoroughly in training.

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Player A wagers $100 to win $100 on the Over 9.5. If the final score is 6-4, Player A wins $100. If the final score is 4-3, Player A loses $100.

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Player B wagers $120 to win $100 on the Under 9.5. If the final score is 7-5, Player A loses $120. If the final score is 4-0, Player A wins $100.

Note: The wager cannot "Push" as the listed total is 9 ½, the game has to either go over or under the total. D. Run Line Wager: The Run Line wager is offered only in Baseball and is not a frequently placed wager. Run Line Wagering is simply wagering on the event based on a pointspread and a moneyline combined. The team wagered on must win by the pointspread in the same fashion of the pointspread wager. Example 1: (Baseball) The posted Run Line on the baseball game between the Florida Marlins and the Arizona Diamondbacks is Arizona –1.5 +120 and the Florida Marlins +1.5 -140. The +1.5 for Florida and the –1.5 for Arizona is the pointspread, while the -140 for Florida and the +120 for Arizona is the moneyline. Florida +1.5 -140

Arizona -1.5 +120 The player has 2 wagering options on this event. They can wager on Florida +1.5 –140 or Arizona –1.5 +120. •

Option #1: Player A wants to win $100 on Florida +1.5 -140. To win $100 the player must risk $140 due to the moneyline. For Player A to win his wager, Florida has to either win the game, or lose by only 1 run. If Florida loses by 2 runs, the player loses his bet because they lost by more than 1.5.

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Option #2: Player B wants to risk $100 on Arizona –1.5 +120. For Player B to win his wager, Arizona has to win the game by more than 1.5 runs. If Arizona wins by 2 runs, Player B wins $120. If Arizona only wins by 1 run, Player B loses the $100.

Example 2: (Baseball) Kansas City Royals +1.5 -160 Detroit Tigers -1.5 +180

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Player A wants to win $200 on Kansas City +1.5 –160. To win $200 the player must risk $320. If Kansas City wins the game, or loses by only 1 run, Player A wins $200. If Kansas City loses by more than 1.5 then Player A loses the $320 he risked.

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Player B wants to risk $200 on Detroit –1.5 +180. If he is risking $200 and Player B wins his wager, he will be credited $360 ($200 risked multiplied by the +180 moneyline). If Detroit wins the game by more than 1.5 runs, player B wins $360. If Detroit loses the game, or only wins by 1 run, Player B loses $200.

The Rules

Sports Betting rules: (How to bet, types of bets.)

The main object of sports betting is to beat the 'Oddsmakers' or the 'Odds Compilers' and win some money. Additionally, placing a bet on your favorite sport event makes the game exciting and more enjoyable. Betting is done through Sportsbooks (US) or Bookmakers (UK) entities that accept bets. You can bet on the outcome of several sporting events, such as; Baseball, Basketball, Football, Tennis, Hockey, Snooker and Soccer games. To place sports bet, you go to a sportsbook, physical or online. You could also bet over the phone with many sportsbooks. Note that a sportsbook or sportsbook is not the same as an oddsmaker. The sportsbook simply accepts sports bets. An oddsmaker is a person who sets the betting odds. You need to state what you are betting on by making a selection, the type of bet and the amount you are wagering. Your selection will obviously depend on the odds offered, so you will want to examine the range of odds available before you make a decision. There are many types of bets you can place. Some sportsbooks may offer more betting varieties and combinations than others. Below is a list of the more common types of bets. • •

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Straight bet or Single. This is the simplest and most common bet. You bet on a winner at given odds. Pointspread. This bet lets you bet on a winner from two selections who have been made equal by allocating appropriate points to the underdog team. The Pointspread is the number of points allocated and is shown with a + sign for the favorite and a - sign for the underdog. The favorite has to win by more than the Pointspread for you to win; otherwise you lose your bet even if the team wins. Inversely, if you bet for the underdog, that team has to lose by less than the Pointspread for you to win. If the favorite wins by the exact Pointspread, then it is a push or a tie. You get your bet back. To eliminate a tie result, the oddsmakers sometimes include a half pointspread. Since scores use full numbers only, one team has to win outright. Buy Points. Also, to buy Key Points. Move the Pointspread favorably at a price. The Moneyline. This establishes the odds for each team but inversely proportional to what would have been a Pointspread, and is indicated by a + for the underdog and a sign for the favorite. Say team A is favorite and quoted at -180 and B is the underdog at + 120. The bets offered would be 10:18 odds-on for the favorite, and 12:10 for the underdog. For every $180 you bet on A you would win $100 or lose $180, but for every $100 you bet on B you would win $120 or lose $100. Total. A bet for the number of points scored in the game by both teams combined, including points scored in overtime. Over/Under. A bet that the combined number of points scored by the two teams in the game will be Over or Under the total set by the oddsmaker. Parlay or Accumulator. A multiple bet. A kind of 'let-it-ride' bet. Making simultaneous selections on two or more games with the intent of pressing the winnings of the first win on the bet of the following game selected, and so on. All the selections made must win for you to win the parlay. If a game is a tie, postponed or cancelled, your parlay is automatically reduced by one selection; a double parlay becomes a straight bet, a triple parlay becomes a double. A parlay bet can yield huge dividends if won.

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Teaser. It is like a parlay, but with the option to add or subtract points (called 'moving the line') from one or more Spread bets. When betting a teaser additional points are either added to the underdog or subtracted from the favorite. The odds vary according to the number of points the spread is moved and the number of teams combined to form the teaser. As in the parlay, all selections must win for the teaser to win. Teasers odds are usually worse than the parlays. If-wager. A bet that allows the bettor to make a second wager, up to an equal amount, pending a win on the first selection. Open Wager. Open wagers allow the bettor to play teasers or parlays making a selection at different times and even different days. Future. A bet on a future event. At the start of each season, the sportsbooks give out odds for teams to win a certain championship. The odds change as the game date approaches and in most cases get shorter, but if you win you get paid at the original odds that you took. This is possibly one of the most profitable bets if you have considerable knowledge of the sport that you are betting on including the players, and a good sense of judgment. Exotic Bets. Betting on unusual events. Some sportsbooks post odds and take bets on a wide variety of other sports related events and activities. A few others will take bets on just about anything you can think of. Proposition Bet or Prop Bet. An offer of bets at odds and conditions chosen by the sportsbook, usually on 'Exotic' bets.

The Strategy How to win at sports betting: (Strategy, plan, tactics, method, system, technique.) The challenge of sports betting is to collect and analyze information and then make a sound judgment on what to bet on, what type of bet to place and how much. To create an opportunity to be a winner, you need to take into account three main factors, analyze them and act on your findings accordingly. These are: 1. The odds offer (Price) 2. The value of the odds (overpriced or underpriced?) 3. The type of bet (single, multiple, combination, etc.) The odds offer has to be at least 2:1 to make it worthwhile. If necessary, choose a selection with a slightly higher risk to prop up the price. The value of the odds must be such that the sportsbook's commission is to a minimum, if at all. Some lines get 'steamed' unnecessarily. When this happens, the 'favorite' price lengthens. Take advantage of those situations. Three types of bets seem to stand out as a sensible combination to use because they are simple, not too difficult to win and have good winning potential: the Straight bet, the Doubles and the Future.

Sports Betting tips: • •

•

• • • •

Keep it entertaining and fun to do, while betting intelligently. A 'Future' bet is possibly one of the most profitable bets if you have considerable knowledge of the sport that you are betting on including the players, and a good sense of judgment. Play it whenever you can. With time you should improve your assessment ability and judgment. A straight bet is simple, manageable and not too difficult to win. Play it but always weigh up the odds. Avoid favorites and long shots (outsiders) too. Be selective - don't bet on anything or everything. Limit your selections and betting money. Playing too many selections is gambling against high odds. Not a wise thing to do on a regular basis. Look for value odds as much as likely winners. If you keep looking for them, you will learn to spot them fairly quickly. It is best not to replay your winnings, at least not immediately. If you want to be in control, you must put back in your pocket some or most of your winnings. Do your homework before signing up to an online sportsbook. Four important things you should look for in a sportsbook: Are they members of a known Gambling Association? How quick do they pay out? How accessible is their customer service? What happens when there is a dispute?

Do’s And Don'ts The following Do's And Don'ts are a must for any successful bettor. Betting successfully requires discipline.

Bet only what you can afford. Define a bankroll at the beginning of the year or season and stick to it. Define a staking system and stick to it. Do not bet on teams or leagues that you don't know anything about. Try to specialize on chosen leagues. Do not assume that there are any 'sure things'. Any result is possible. Your Selection Criteria must include recent form, a minimum of the last six matches. In general, stick to betting on League Matches, as recent team form is only consistent within the boundaries of that league. Do not bet at the beginning of the season; wait until each team has played at least 6 matches so that your recent form analysis is valid. Do not bet on local derbies or evenly balanced teams. The exception being that the odds are favorable to covering your bet (i.e. cover bet with a draw). After analyzing your bets, stick by your decision. Avoid outside influences.

Do not work with more than 3 Selection Criteria Strategies. Define your Selection Criteria Strategies; fine-tune them as you go. Analyze all bets after the fact, especially if it is a losing bet. Learn by your mistakes and/or experiences. Determine the best return on your bet from various Sportsbooks. The variance on returns across sportsbooks can be substantial, especially on multiple bets or accumulators. Bet only when you deem the odds to be fair or acceptable for your bet. Bet only on the smallest combinations of results feasible. 4+ accumulators may give big returns but they are also the hardest to achieve. Keep an up to-date record of all bets, returns and losses. You may not be suited to gambling and an up to-date record will highlight this. Bet only when the odds are in you favor. Do not bet for the sake of it. Always remain calm especially after a big win or loss. Discipline is the key. A big loss can cause some bettors to chase their losses by betting big and for high returns thus accumulating bigger losses. Likewise a big win can cause some bettors to become flippant and bet more frequently and sporadically.

2. ANALYSIS

2.1. ANALYSIS AND SELECTION CRITERIA

Analysis and Selection Criteria section goes into to details on the various types of analysis that the bettor will go through to obtain a list of selected teams to bet on. A Selection Criteria is a combination of different analyzed components that provide the Bettor with the best teams to bet on in their opinion. There are 4 types of analysis that a bettor may do Team Analysis Ratings (RateForm, RecentForm, leagueform, Combo), %, Averages, Sequences, Streaks, Injuries, Playing at Home/Away Match Analysis Team Rating Comparisons (RateForm, RecentForm, Leagueform, Combo), Home v Away Records League Analysis %Home Wins, %Away Wins Odds Analysis Bet Type (Straight, Parlays, Teasers) Maximum Return (Best Sportsbook or Bet Facilitator), Fair or Acceptable Odds

2.2. TEAM ANALYSIS

There are numerous factors on which a team can be analyzed. The following is a list of such factors. A Bettor in determining their Selection Criteria will include some of criteria listed below. This list is the tip of the ice berg for Team Analysis. Individual Bettors from there knowledge and experiences will use in addition to some of the criteria below, their own criteria as to what teams to bet on. Team

Moral General moral of the team Injuries

Any key injuries. No. of injuries.

Last Game

Date of most recent game. No. of games in the last 2 weeks.

Challenging

Challenging for title?

New Manager Team has new manager New Signings Team has new players.

Team Ratings

RateForm

A rating calculation based on the Rateform

RecentForm A rating calculation based on the team's last 6 league matches. Leagueform

A rating calculation based on the team's league matches.

ComboA rating calculation based on the team's recent form and league form.

Percentages

All Games - % Win % Loss Last 6 Games - % Win % Loss All Home Games - % Win % Loss

Last 4 Home Games - % Win %

All Away Games - % Win % Loss

Last 4 Away Games - % Win %

Loss

Loss

Averages

All Games

- Pts Ave., Home Pts Ave., Away Pts Ave., Goal Diff Ave..

Last 6 Games - Pts Ave., Goal Diff Ave. Last 4 Games. - Home Pts Ave., Away Pts Ave., Home & Away Goal Diff Ave.

Sequences

Winning Sequence fixture.

- no. of consecutive league wins prior to the current

Losing Sequence fixture.

- no. of consecutive league defeats prior to the current

Streaks

Since a Win

- no. of consecutive league matches since the team win.

Since a Loss - no. of consecutive league matches since the team lost.

For the 4 major sports in the US: football (National Football League), baseball (Major League Baseball), basketball (National Basketball Association), and hockey (National Hockey League, there are different characteristics to take into consideration when you make the team analysis. You analyze the team from two points of view: defense and offense. Some teams base their game on the strength of their defense and others on the capacity of their offense to score points. Besides, some teams have a strong collective game; meanwhile others rely on the shape and skills of their star players to build their wins. The stats of each team are shown by the overall form indicators of the team and they give you some sort of indication about the future performance of the team in question. The short term forecast will be mostly related to the general shape, but there are cases when the team that is in good shape will lose to an underdog, but there are cases when a team that plays lousy can win a game. The analysis of the team will give you only an indication about the overall performance of a team and not the performance in each and every game. It means that at the end of the season, the performance of a team will reflect their stats throughout the season, but you don’t know which matches they will win and which they will lose.

Football In football there are several indicators of the two main departments of a team: defense and offense. Defense - Games - TotalDefenseRank- the rank of the defense in the league in comparison with the other teams. - RushDefenseRank-the rank of the defense in what the average length of rushes is concerned compared to the other teams. - PassDefenseRank-the rank of the defense for the length of passes compared to the rest of the teams form the league. - Rush TdsAllowed- number of TouchDowns allowed from rushes - Rush TDsAllowedPer Game- average of TDs allowed per game from rushes

- Pass TdsAllowed- number of TouchDowns allowed with the action coming from a pass - Pass TDsAllowedPer Game- average of TDs allowed per game from passes - Run YardsAllowedPer Game- average of yards allowed to run per game - Pass YardsAllowedPer Game- average of yards allowed to pass per game. Offense - Games - TotalOffenseRank - RushOffenseRank - PassOffenseRank - Rush TDs - Rush TDsPer Game - Pass TDs - Pass TDsPer Game - Run YardsPer Game - Pass YardsPer Game. The tables with the stats for each team look like this and they will be adjusted after every game that each team plays. Defense

NFL Team Arizona Cardinals Atlanta Falcons Baltimore Ravens Buffalo Bills Carolina Panthers Chicago Bears Cincinnati Bengals Cleveland Browns Dallas Cowboys Denver Broncos Detroit Lions Green Bay Packers Houston Texans Indianapolis Colts Jacksonville Jaguars Kansas City Chiefs Miami Dolphins Minnesota Vikings

Rush Pass Run Total Rush Pass Rush TDs Pass TDs Yards Y Games Defense Defense Defense TDs Allowed TDs Allowed Allowed A Rank Rank Rank Allowed Per Allowed Per Per Game Game Game G 4 21 15 23 4 1.0 9 2.3 99 4 28 28 24 6 1.5 6 1.5 150 4 8 16 10 2 0.5 5 1.3 105 4 9 26 3 4 1.0 2 0.5 136 3 22 12 29 1 0.3 3 1.0 93 3 30 32 15 5 1.7 7 2.3 184 4 17 25 8 4 1.0 3 0.8 131 4 14 27 4 2 0.5 3 0.8 141 3 13 4 26 1 0.3 5 1.7 72 4 4 8 9 1 0.3 4 1.0 89 4 29 24 30 3 0.8 8 2.0 125 4 24 23 18 3 0.8 4 1.0 118 4 26 21 25 5 1.3 7 1.8 111 4 6 22 6 1 0.3 3 0.8 115 4 16 7 20 5 1.3 8 2.0 87 4 18 20 13 1 0.3 5 1.3 108 3 11 2 27 0 0.0 2 0.7 63 4 10 10 14 3 0.8 3 0.8 91

New England Patriots New Orleans Saints New York Giants New York Jets Oakland Raiders Philadelphia Eagles Pittsburgh Steelers San Diego Chargers San Francisco 49ers Seattle Seahawks St. Louis Rams Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tennessee Titans Washington Redskins

4 4 3 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 4

7 23 32 25 31 19 2 27 3 20 12 1 5 15

13 19 9 31 30 1 6 29 5 11 18 17 3 14

12 21 32 5 28 31 2 17 7 22 11 1 19 16

5 3 1 4 5 1 4 5 2 1 3 1 2 3

1.3 0.8 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.8

2 10 3 3 7 6 6 8 9 2 4 0 4 7

0.5 2.5 1.0 0.8 1.8 2.0 1.5 2.0 2.3 0.7 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.8

You can base your team analysis on these charts. The numbers are indicators of the relative strength of each team’s defense and, also, the part of their defense that is weak. However, these indicators are not absolute and you should take into account other factors from other analysis criteria. Offense

NFL Team Arizona Cardinals Atlanta Falcons Baltimore Ravens Buffalo Bills Carolina Panthers Chicago Bears Cincinnati Bengals Cleveland Browns Dallas Cowboys Denver Broncos Detroit Lions Green Bay Packers Houston Texans Indianapolis Colts Jacksonville Jaguars

Rush Total Rush Pass Rush TDs Pass Games Offense Offense Offense TDs Per TDs Rank Rank Rank Game 4 16 28 8 2 0.5 4 4 31 21 28 4 1.0 4 4 21 1 32 5 1.3 2 4 29 31 10 6 1.5 4 3 26 3 31 1 0.3 4 3 32 15 30 2 0.7 2 4 22 27 15 1 0.3 6 4 30 29 24 0 0.0 5 3 1 4 4 3 1.0 2 4 7 2 25 5 1.3 7 4 27 24 22 1 0.3 6 4 12 12 19 5 1.3 7 4 14 17 13 3 0.8 4 4 15 22 11 1 0.3 9 4 18 18 17 3 0.8 5

Pass TDs Per Game 1.0 1.0 0.5 1.0 1.3 0.7 1.5 1.3 0.7 1.8 1.5 1.8 1.0 2.3 1.3

Run Yards Per Game 76 93 196 52 162 105 79 70 153 163 86 129 105 92 100

Pass Yards Per Game 234 159 104 227 125 127 218 192 240 185 200 203 222 226 206

96 108 90 174 154 58 86 150 74 93 107 107 63 98

Kansas City Chiefs Miami Dolphins Minnesota Vikings New England Patriots New Orleans Saints New York Giants New York Jets Oakland Raiders Philadelphia Eagles Pittsburgh Steelers San Diego Chargers San Francisco 49ers Seattle Seahawks St. Louis Rams Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tennessee Titans Washington Redskins

4 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 4

9 13 2 17 20 6 24 23 28 3 10 5 19 11 8 25 4

5 6 7 16 19 14 32 26 10 23 8 9 13 25 20 30 11

23 26 9 21 20 5 6 16 29 1 18 12 27 3 2 14 7

8 3 4 1 2 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 2 1 4

2.0 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.3 1.0

4 5 10 5 5 6 2 5 0 5 5 5 6 6 5 8 5

1.0 1.7 2.5 1.3 1.3 2.0 0.5 1.3 0.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 2.0 1.5 1.7 2.0 1.3

147 146 146 105 98 110 52 82 132 91 135 133 126 86 94 69 131

194 184 230 202 203 238 238 208 150 277 204 222 177 250 253 220 236

That’s why on the offense chart looks like it is a separate indicator from the defense, and you can see this fact. The performance of the defense might be related by no means with the offense. For instance, the Dallas Cowboys have the 1st rank offense and the 13th rank defense and the TampaBay Buccaneers are the 1st rank defense and the 8th rank offense. Certainly, there has to be some balance between the two departments for a team to win, otherwise their average will not look so good. You need to consider also the fact that the overall performance of a team might be based on their star players and you should take into account the shape of the key players of the teams that have this characteristic. They can win a game on their own, regardless of what the team does as a whole.

Basketball The sport has its own set of stats that show the performance of the team. What football has been told about is also true, but the indicators are different. Team analysis for basketball looks like the example below. Fgm3gmFtmPct Pct Pct eff a a a 37.87.319.81 Sacramento 102.8 97.8 41.2 26.2 8.66 3.96 13.5 19.3 30.4 10.8 .462 .401 .795 120.3 81.8 18.3 24.9 No Team Off Def Reb Ast Stl Blk To Pf Dreb Oreb

34.34.617.0New 90.3 87.8 40.7 24.5 8.65 3.93 14.1 21.0 30.2 10.5 .441 .336 .753 104.9 77.7 13.7 22.6 Jersey 40.56.218.03 Dallas 105.2 100.8 45.2 23.9 8.00 5.27 11.8 19.6 30.9 14.3 .459 .348 .796 123.6 88.2 17.8 22.6 36.94.519.94 L.A.Lakers 98.2 94.3 43.1 23.8 8.32 4.58 13.4 21.1 30.9 12.2 .454 .327 .693 111.3 81.4 13.6 28.7 36.15.519.05 Memphis 96.7 94.3 41.8 23.4 9.70 6.89 14.4 23.2 29.0 12.8 .445 .340 .727 111.9 81.2 16.0 26.1 37.04.016.66 Minnesota 94.5 89.1 42.9 23.0 6.84 5.54 12.2 21.1 32.3 10.7 .462 .363 .781 112.9 80.1 10.9 21.3 36.24.920.77 Milwaukee 98.0 97.0 42.2 22.8 6.76 4.57 13.0 20.3 30.5 11.7 .447 .350 .775 110.5 81.1 14.0 26.7 35.63.018.68 Cleveland 92.9 95.5 45.6 21.9 7.15 6.56 14.2 21.2 32.0 13.6 .433 .315 .753 107.1 82.3 9.6 24.8 36.54.020.29 Denver 97.2 96.1 42.3 21.9 9.09 6.34 14.6 22.0 29.1 13.2 .443 .336 .767 110.1 82.5 12.0 26.3 34.15.216.210 Chicago 89.7 96.0 43.5 21.9 8.04 4.83 15.2 23.3 30.7 12.8 .414 .342 .725 98.3 82.4 15.3 22.4 35.88.816.611 Seattle 97.1 97.8 39.3 21.7 8.06 4.72 13.8 21.7 28.3 11.1 .446 .373 .765 107.6 80.4 23.6 21.7 35.34.615.412 Portland 90.7 92.0 41.7 21.6 7.48 5.17 13.8 18.9 29.0 12.7 .448 .346 .731 103.6 78.9 13.4 21.1 33.65.518.813 Indiana 91.4 85.6 41.7 21.5 8.87 5.00 13.5 20.8 29.9 11.8 .435 .350 .764 105.6 77.1 15.6 24.6 33.86.517.7New 14 91.8 91.9 42.8 20.9 8.63 4.22 14.1 20.9 29.5 13.3 .420 .319 .750 101.7 80.5 20.3 23.6 Orleans 33.54.119.015 Detroit 90.1 84.3 42.8 20.7 8.04 6.94 14.4 20.3 30.4 12.4 .435 .344 .753 104.5 77.0 11.8 25.3 35.15.016.8New 16 92.0 93.5 42.6 20.7 7.42 4.57 15.3 23.1 31.0 11.6 .442 .364 .793 103.3 79.4 13.6 21.1 York 34.76.719.217 Boston 95.3 96.7 40.1 20.5 9.39 3.96 15.7 22.4 29.8 10.4 .443 .346 .750 103.6 78.2 19.5 25.5 35.15.217.9Golden 18 93.3 94.0 43.1 20.5 7.02 4.74 14.1 20.6 30.9 12.2 .442 .334 .725 103.4 79.4 15.6 24.7 State 34.75.017.2San 19 91.5 84.2 45.1 20.4 8.06 6.34 14.1 20.3 32.5 12.5 .442 .358 .681 105.5 78.5 13.9 25.2 Antonio 32.83.120.020 Utah 88.7 89.9 41.2 20.4 7.08 5.98 15.3 25.5 27.7 13.5 .436 .321 .746 98.7 75.3 9.6 26.8 34.44.022.021 L.A.Clippers 94.8 99.4 43.5 20.2 7.24 4.55 15.6 22.1 29.5 14.0 .428 .321 .785 102.6 80.2 12.5 28.1 34.55.118.722 Atlanta 92.8 97.5 42.7 20.1 7.65 4.92 15.6 22.3 30.6 12.2 .433 .335 .776 102.1 79.6 15.2 24.1 32.74.118.423 Philadelphia 88.0 90.5 40.8 20.0 7.98 4.38 14.7 20.7 29.4 11.5 .428 .342 .753 96.8 76.3 12.1 24.5 24 Phoenix 94.2 97.9 40.6 19.3 8.94 4.61 14.7 22.7 29.3 11.3 36.1- .443 5.1- .345 17.0- .746 101.9 2

81.4 14.7 22.7 35.45.218.025 Orlando 94.0 101.1 40.9 19.3 6.67 3.76 13.0 21.3 28.7 12.2 .429 .344 .737 98.2 82.5 15.2 24.4 33.46.316.726 Houston 89.8 88.0 42.6 19.3 6.83 5.40 15.8 21.5 32.3 10.3 .442 .366 .773 101.0 75.5 17.1 21.6 32.45.615.127 Toronto 85.4 88.5 39.6 19.2 7.37 4.90 13.3 21.3 29.5 10.1 .418 .356 .750 93.1 77.4 15.8 20.1 33.35.917.828 Miami 90.3 89.7 41.5 19.1 7.20 3.72 13.1 22.1 30.0 11.5 .425 .357 .762 98.1 78.3 16.5 23.4 33.65.319.329 Washington 91.8 97.4 42.8 18.7 8.93 4.96 16.7 20.9 29.2 13.6 .421 .341 .714 96.5 79.9 15.5 27.0

Glossary G : Games, Gs : Games Started, Min : Minutes, Pts : Points, Reb : Rebounds, Ast : Assists, Stl : Steals, Blk : Blocks, To : Turnovers, Pf : Fouls, Dreb : Defensive Rebounds, Oreb : Offensive Rebounds, Fgm-a : Field goals made - Field goals attempts, Pct : Percentage, 3pm-a : 3 point made - 3 point attempts, Ftm-a : Free throws made - Free throws attempts, eff : efficiency recap = ((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) - ((Field goals attempts - Field goals made) + (Free throws attempts - Free throws made) + Turnovers)), N : Not enough to qualify for rankings, Res : Result, W : Win, W-Diff : Win Difference, L : Loss, L-Diff : Loss Difference, Margin : efficiency recap margin When you analyze the teams from the NBA or any other basketball league, that’s the kind of chart you will use. The indicators show a certain aspect of the game and the overall performance is based on the quality of these indicators that cover every aspect of the game. Again, if two teams are not balanced it doesn’t mean that the better skilled team will win all the time. There are also psychological factors here, which will decide mostly what the outcome of the game will be. There is no such a thing as a sure thing in betting and you should expect anything to happen. From this set of indicators you should have an overall view over the quality of the teams in the two major departments: offense and defense.

Baseball This is an example of stats in baseball that will provide you with the data about the teams and players that compete in the league.

Team SO SB 1. AL 35 2. NL 22 3. NL 32 4. 37

AL 25 5.

94

AL 44 6.

AL 120 42 7. 98

AL 33 8.

AL 108 37 9. AL 129 61 10. AL 36 11. 63

NL 37

86

NL 37

12.

13. NL 150 74 14. 65

AL 25 15.

AL 142 42 16. NL 37

LEAGUE G AB R H 2B CS OBP SLG AVG Boston Red Sox 162 5769 961 1667 371 .360 .491 .289 Atlanta Braves 162 5670 907 1608 321 .349 .475 .284 St. Louis Cardinals 162 5672 876 1580 342 .350 .454 .279 Toronto Blue Jays 162 5661 894 1580 357 .349 .455 .279 Minnesota Twins 162 5655 801 1567 318 .341 .431 .277 Kansas City Royals 162 5568 836 1526 288 .336 .427 .274 New York Yankees 163 5605 877 1518 304 .356 .453 .271 Seattle Mariners 162 5561 795 1509 290 .344 .410 .271 Anaheim Angels 162 5487 736 1473 276 .330 .413 .268 Baltimore Orioles 163 5665 743 1516 277 .323 .405 .268 Colorado Rockies 162 5518 853 1472 330 .344 .445 .267 Pittsburgh Pirates 162 5581 753 1492 275 .338 .420 .267 Florida Marlins 162 5490 751 1459 292 .333 .421 .266 Texas Rangers 162 5664 826 1506 274 .330 .454 .266 Tampa Bay Devil Rays 162 5654 715 1501 298 .320 .404 .265 San Francisco Giants 161 5456 755 1440 281 .338 .425 .264

3B HR

RBI

TB

BB

40 238

932 2832

620 943 88

31 235

872 2696

545 933 68

32 196

827 2574

580 952 82

33 190

853 2573

546 1081

45 155

755 2440

512 1027

39 162

781 2378

476 926

14 230

845 2540

684 1042

33 139

759 2282

586 989

33 150

687 2265

476 838

24 152

695 2297

431 902 89

31 198

814 2458

619 1134

45 163

711 2346

529 1049

44 157

709 2310

515 978

36 239

799 2569

488 1052

38 137

678 2286

420 1030

29 180

713 2319

593 980 53

17. 76

NL 38

66

NL 30

18.

19. AL 29 20. 72

NL 29

76

NL 39

73

NL 31

21.

22.

23. NL 100 39 24. 99

NL 39

86

AL 61

25.

26. AL 14 27. 70

NL 31

80

NL 34

28.

29. NL 36 30. 98

AL 63

Hitting Stats

Arizona Diamondbacks 162 5570 717 1467 .330 .417 .263 Houston Astros 162 5583 805 1466 .336 .431 .263 Chicago White Sox 162 5487 791 1445 .331 .446 .263 Philadelphia Phillies 162 5543 791 1448 .343 .419 .261 San Diego Padres 162 5531 678 1442 .333 .388 .261 Chicago Cubs 162 5519 724 1431 .323 .416 .259 Montreal Expos 162 5437 711 1404 .326 .401 .258 Milwaukee Brewers 162 5548 714 1423 .329 .419 .256 Cleveland Indians 162 5572 699 1413 .316 .401 .254 Oakland Athletics 162 5497 768 1398 .327 .417 .254 New York Mets 161 5341 642 1317 .314 .374 .247 Cincinnati Reds 162 5509 694 1349 .318 .395 .245 Los Angeles Dodgers 162 5458 574 1328 .303 .368 .243 Detroit Tigers 162 5466 591 1312 .300 .375 .240

303

47 152

696 2320

531 1006

308

30 191

763 2407

557 1021

303

19 220

766 2446

519 916 77

325

27 166

757 2325

651 1155

257

32 128

641 2147

565 1073

302

24 172

691 2297

492 1158

294

25 144

682 2180

522 990

266

24 196

685 2325

547 1221

296

26 158

660 2235

466 1062

317

24 176

742 2291

556 898 48

262

24 124

607 1999

489 1035

239

21 182

669 2176

524 1326

260

25 124

544 2010

407 985 80

201

39 153

553 2050

443 1099

2B - Doubles 3B - Triples AB - At Bats AB/GIDP - At-Bats per Grounded Into Double Play AB/HR - At-Bats per Home Run AB/RBI - At-Bats per Runs Batted In AO - Fly Outs AVG - Batting Average BB - Bases on Balls (Walks) CS - Caught Stealing G - Games Played GIDP - Ground into Double Plays GO - Ground Outs GO/AO - Ground Outs/Fly Outs GSH - Grand Slam Home Runs H - Hits HBP - Hit by Pitch HR - Home Runs IBB - Intentional Walks LIPS - Late Inning Pressure Situations LOB - Left On Base NP - Number of Pitches OBP - On-base Percentage OPS - On-base Plus Slugging Percentage PA/SO - Plate Appearances per Strikeout R - Runs Scored RBI - Runs Batted In SAC - Sacrifice Bunts SB% - Stolen Base Percentage SB - Stolen Bases SF - Sacrifice Flies SLG - Slugging Percentage SO - Strikeouts TB - Total Bases TP - Triple Play TPA - Total Plate Appearances XBH - Extra Base Hits This is the stats only for hitting and they were displayed only for illustration purposes. This material is not about statistics, it is about winning in sports betting with a system. Along with this statistics, there are also those for pitching and for fielding, but only for the teams. Then, there are the players in separate statistics: hitters, pitchers, and fielders. As for every other sport, the stats for baseball are in two departments: offense-hitting and defense-pitching and fielding. So, keep these indicators in balance and give each one the necessary balance. Also, notice that the analysis itself doesn’t provide the edge you need to win in betting. But, we will talk about this when the time for this is near. Let’s go to the last sport we will cover here. Hockey

For hockey there are the team statistics and the player statistics. You will see below an example of team statistics for the NHL.

SC TR OS W LD LD OS RK TEAM GP W L T OTL PTS GA/g G/g PP% PK% SA/g S/g 1st 1st FOW% BY % 1%2% % % % % 1 DET 82 48 21 11 2 109 .665 2.30 3.11 20.0 86.7 26.2 30.3 .787 .314 .750 .841 .643 .551 52.5 2 TAM 82 46 22 8 6 106 .646 2.34 2.99 16.2 84.8 25.4 30.0 .680 .375 .794 .842 .654 .519 50.0 3 BOS 82 41 19 15 7 104 .634 2.29 2.55 16.0 83.5 27.8 30.5 .588 .438 .842 .774 .355 .600 52.1 4 SAN 82 43 21 12 6 104 .634 2.23 2.67 16.6 85.2 28.9 28.0 .667 .351 .694 .872 .523 .556 48.4 5 TOR 82 45 24 10 3 103 .628 2.49 2.95 20.1 83.4 26.4 27.5 .744 .333 .793 .868 .541 .590 52.1 6 OTT 82 43 23 10 6 102 .622 2.30 3.20 21.5 83.5 24.9 29.5 .667 .351 .758 .805 .407 .588 47.0 7 PHI 82 40 21 15 6 101 .616 2.27 2.79 20.7 83.3 25.5 29.4 .636 .316 .793 .917 .533 .440 50.3 8 VAN 82 43 24 10 5 101 .616 2.37 2.87 14.9 85.9 26.6 29.0 .646 .353 .594 .867 .529 .523 51.2 9 NJD 82 43 25 12 2 100 .610 2.00 2.60 16.3 85.3 24.4 29.7 .771 .176 .821 .842 .500 .559 49.2 10 COL 82 40 22 13 7 100 .610 2.42 2.88 20.3 83.7 28.4 29.4 .596 .343 .677 .800 .500 .511 50.0 11 DAL 82 41 26 13 2 97 .591 2.13 2.37 15.8 85.8 23.2 26.8 .732 .268 .857 .818 .346 .577 51.4 12 CAL 82 42 30 7 3 94 .573 2.15 2.44 15.1 84.6 25.5 27.4 .707 .317 .952 .818 .471 .523 50.7 13 MON 82 41 30 7 4 93 .567 2.34 2.54 17.2 82.4 28.6 27.7 .667 .226 .741 .882 .429 .564 51.6 14 NYI 82 38 29 11 4 91 .555 2.56 2.89 16.7 85.5 27.4 28.5 .692 .256 .700 .839 .405 .524 49.3 15 STL 82 39 30 11 2 91 .555 2.42 2.33 17.8 84.5 25.6 27.1 .619 .325 .767 .818 .385 .528 49.9 16 NAS 82 38 29 11 4 91 .555 2.65 2.63 16.9 81.7 28.5 27.2 .610 .317 .690 .778 .468 .424 48.8 17 EDM 82 36 29 12 5 89 .543 2.54 2.70 13.0 81.0 26.5 28.4 .657 .277 .652 .889 .500 .415 50.9 18 BUF 82 37 34 7 4 85 .518 2.70 2.68 15.8 84.7 28.5 28.1 .609 .250 .720 .774 .341 .564 50.2 19 MIN 82 30 29 20 3 83 .506 2.23 2.29 13.6 84.4 29.1 24.2 .478 .222 .516 .625 .340 .458 46.7 20 LOS 82 28 29 16 9 81 .494 2.65 2.50 14.0 80.6 27.0 28.6 .545 .105 .481 .727 .257 .395 51.1 21 ATL 82 33 37 8 4 78 .476 2.96 2.61 14.6 85.1 29.4 26.1 .677 .235 .667 .913 .340 .500 46.7 22 CAR 82 28 34 14 6 76 .463 2.55 2.10 10.6 81.6 26.2 29.2 .567 .212 .632 .821 .308 .313 54.9 23 ANA 82 29 35 10 8 76 .463 2.60 2.24 18.0 84.7 29.8 29.7 .526 .205 .556 .792 .341 .361 55.3 24 FLO 82 28 35 15 4 75 .457 2.70 2.29 16.7 86.3 34.5 27.7 .528 .196 .500 .607 .350 .300 46.1 25 NYR 82 27 40 7 8 69 .421 3.05 2.51 14.2 79.3 29.2 29.5 .500 .167 .708 .786 .342 .317 51.4 26 PHO 82 22 36 18 6 68 .415 2.99 2.29 14.2 82.1 30.6 26.5 .444 .130 .450 .737 .291 .261 48.9 27 CLB 82 25 45 8 4 62 .378 2.90 2.16 14.4 85.1 32.0 27.8 .405 .222 .692 .760 .245 .480 47.8 28 WAS 82 23 46 10 3 59 .360 3.08 2.27 19.1 81.3 31.5 23.7 .472 .130 .737 .870 .270 .250 49.0 29 CHI 82 20 43 11 8 59 .360 3.16 2.29 15.7 83.4 30.7 29.3 .333 .184 .450 .560 .286 .171 49.4 30 PIT 82 23 47 8 4 58 .354 3.70 2.32 18.0 77.2 33.2 24.7 .581 .098 .500 .636 .242 .421 47.2

The legend: RK-rank GP-Games Played W-Wins L-Losses T-Ties OTL-Over Time Losses PTS-Points W%-Win % GA/g-Goals Against per Game G/g Goals per Game PP%-Power Play% PK%Penalty Killing% SA/g- Shots Against per Game S/g-Shots per Game SC 1st%- Winning$ Scoring First TR 1st%-Winning% Trailing First LD1 %-Winning after Leading Period 1 LD 2%-Winning % after Leading Period 2 OS BY %-Winning% Outshoot OS%-Winning% Outshooting FOW%-Face Off Win%

In hockey there is one important indicator that is not found in other sports: Goalie Stats. The goalkeeper plays a very important role in the hockey game and his stats are highlighted separately. In conclusion, you should extract from these indicators what is important and that is the overall performance of a team and this information you will complete it with the other information in the analysis section. We will get to them in the next paragraphs. After you have a static analysis of the team, you go and analyze the match and then the characteristics of the league. After you have all this information, you go on and analyze the value of the odds offered by the sports books. There are different odds offered by different sports books and your job is to find out which odds are best, suited with the game that you analyze.

2.3. MATCH ANALYSIS

This section analyzes the conditions in which the game takes place. It highlights a range of variables that have an influence on the outcome of the game, having in mind the context and the trends of the involved teams.

Match Analysis involves primarily weighing up the analysis of the home team against the analysis of the away team. In addition, several other factors as listed below have a strong bearing on the result regardless of logic. Derby Is the match a local derby. Previous History Is there a strong history of results between the teams irrespective of form and league position. Player History If applicable could player history impact the result. Balanced Teams Too close to call? To gather the important data you will need to use for your bets you can use forms as the ones shown below.

The Data The match data is presented in table format which includes 12 columns. The columns contain the following information. • • • •

Date : Match date. Home Team : Name of home team. Away Team : Name of away team. RateForm : A rating calculation based on the information you consider important for the team’s form

• • • •

• • • •

RecentForm : A rating calculation based on the teams last 6 league matches. Leagueform : A rating calculation based on the teams league matches. Combo : A rating calculation based on the teams recent form and league form. Probability home/Away win : A % Probability calculation based on information you gather from different sources o % Home Win o % Away Win History : History results of up to the previous 10 matches between the teams in the last 10 years. Home Win Fixed Odds get info from a sportsbook Away Win Fixed Odds get info from a sportsbook Result : Match result where appropriate.

Thus you can tell at a glance all matches that look positive for home wins or away wins. Positive values across all rating are a good indicator. Takes into account results form the start of the season so you can see the most important information in an aggregate format. These most important indicators are: season and the strength of the opposition but also includes • •

• •

Recent Form : Takes into account the last six matches only. League Form : Takes into account all matches played since the start of the season. The greater the value indicates the greater in superiority of the home team's league record against the away team's league record. Handy method of discovering top versus bottom or bottom versus top matches. Combo Form : Combination of Recent Form and League Form thus providing a more robust form indicator. Probability win/loss : % Calculation for the match outcome based on a multitude of Stats and Ratings including RateForm, Recent Form, Recent Encounters etc.. This may be an overall indicator of all Ratings and Stats.

Golden Rule : Bet with your head not your heart.

Historical Data The beauty of the historical data is that you can proof check your own theories/formulae against it. No pain, no gain as some would say!! The 6 League tables include : • • • • • •

Full View (Home and Away matches combined in W L format) Last 6 Matches Table Last 4 Homes Table Last 4 Aways Table Home Match Table Away Match Table

Match Odds You should also take into account the match odds for several sportsbooks.

After having opened accounts with several sportsbooks, getting to know their rules and procedures, and after analysing your risk- and bettingprofile, it's time to get down to business. It's time to pick games, it's time to consider what's good bets, what's good odds, get a market view, gather info about teams and events, etc. By following these simple steps, you should be well on your way: •

Get an overview. Find out who's offering what. Get a view of the assortment from several bookies. Use the internet, and visit the sportsbook sites. Make use of resources from websites who compares odds presented by most sportsbooks.

•

Study offers: It's important to superficially scan the assortment before you start examining the assortment more carefully. I mention this because if you are updated on the event, you'll automaticly know when a good object comes your way. Often you don't need to run a thorough analysis on a match in order to decide whether to bet on it or not. If you have to analyse every match you want to bet on, you don't know as much about the participating teams as you should in order to make a sound bet. If you can't decide upon whether to bet or not to bet on an event, perhaps it isn't a good object after all. Do not pay too much attention to the odds offered in this phase, just notice the events you feel "must" have a certain outcome.

•

Genuine conviction: The most common way of betting is to pick an object based on genuine belief of a certain outcome. First pick the object based on belief, then check the prices offered. This is how the average bettor operate. Very often, the average bettor have decided his bet long before he's even seen the price offered. Sometimes the decision is based on a mix of genuine belief, and good price offered. By "genuine belief" I mean the hunch, or the feeling you've got before you've checked the table, the form, statistics, etc.

•

Statistical analysis: Let it be said: Use of statistical analysis should not be the only criteria when choosing betting objects. It should only be used as additional info to a genuine belief. Only use statistics when you are in slight doubt about the object and as a supplement to objects you've singled out through criterias mentioned further down on this page. With statistics I mean league tables, form tables, 5- and 10-year statistics, etc.

•

Relevant criterias: o Injuries It's very wise to have a check on the participating teams' injury situation before placing a bet. The bookie presents his odds long before the match kicks off, and bookies are not nescessarily updated on the injury situation. Bettors have here a rare advantage on the bookie, because bettors can stay updated on injuries to the last minutes before kickoff. But if you have singled out an object, don't change your plan only because an unexpected injury occurs. If several key members of the team get unexpectedly injured, then you should consider your pick (especially if it's a team with a rather thin squad, dependant on their key personell). Also pay attention to reports of viruses, squads suffering

from the flu, etc. Very often during the winter squads are depleted due to flu or viruses. o

Type of match The outcome of a match is often dependant on what kind of match it is. You should consider whether the game is in the regular season or in the playoffs and what is the situation fo the teams if there is a regular season match.

2.4. LEAGUE ANALYSIS o

What league ? You should consider the characteristics of the competition, the homeaway win ratio in the leagu, what changes occur over time in the balance of forces between home and away teams.

o

Match importance

During the season run-in, mid-table teams, with little to play for, often beat top teams with medals in sight, or desperate teams looking to survive. Nothing to play for means no pressure and often these teams play very well. Ofcourse, the opposite also happens. This has all to do with psycology and be aware of these kind of games. Even already relegated teams can play better after their fate have been decided. The pressure's off, and suddenly they start to play well again. Stay away from these kind of games, they are usually difficult to predict. Local derbies are always special. Pay attention to these games. o

Time of year During the first quarter of the season, results can be very unpredictable, and often less fancied teams bet the more well known teams. This is the time to bet on highly priced underdogs. After the first quarter the leagues have usually settled, and things are back to normal. Results seem to be "normal", and the assumed top teams win their matches with ease. This is the time when the promoted teams start to feel the pace, and loosing their grips after a good start to the campaign. During the run-in (last quarter), results may not be so easy to predict. Low table teams often beat the top teams, and form doesn't count for so much anymore. The bottom teams are desperate, and this makes this part of the season difficult for bettors. It might pay off to have small

bets on the underdogs, instead of heavy money on the favorites.

o

League tables League tables should not be used as a pick criteria at all during the first months of the season, as they count for nothing in this period. Wait for the season to settle, and only start to use the tables after about a quarter of the season. League tables should never be used as the only criteria when picking a betting object. Remember that bookies use league tables, form tables and 5- or 10-year statistics when they decide what odds to offer.

o

Form Form is the major criteria used by bookies to decide prices. Therefore, formteams are almost always recognised by bookies, and the prices reflect this. A team who have won it's last 4 matches are rarely given good odds by the bookie. You have to identify a team in form as early as possible, in order to get good prices before the bookie discover it. Often you can assume a change in form, not nescessarly based on results, but on reports on how the team has played, even though results haven't been that good. During a season teams hit periods with extreme luck, and periodes with really bad luck. Teams can play very badly for a period, then a change of management turn things upside down, and the team hit a winning streak.. It's vital to your success to identify these periods early on, before bookies get aware.

o

Recent history Some bettors do not take 5- or 10-year statistics into consideration at all when picking objects. Succesful bettors do not use these statistics as a vital criteria, but if other criterias like form and league table indicate a good object and the 5-year statistics shows the opposite, the object is often dropped. 5-year statistics can indicate a teams psycological superiority, but do not pay too much attention to this criteria unless form and league table indicate a good object. Ofcourse, this could be superstitions, but when things happen over and over again, it would be stupid not to take it into consideration when the situation occurs. Differences in style of play is probably the reason for the "bogey team" theory, but it could also be just a psycological thing.

o

Special circumstances Sometimes during the regular season one team has the place assured and the result of the match doesn’t count that much. The sportsbooks are very alert to these kind of situations and they rarely offer a good price on the object.

2.5. ODDS ANALYSIS

After this stage, you have to analyze the odds offered by different sportsbooks. You do this to find that sports book that offers odds that are not reflecting the reality of the game. The sports books have different criteria to get an odd for a game and there are differences between bookies. You will choose the one that is in your best interest. There are lots of programs available which can help you sort all the information you gather. But be ware of computer programs which are supposed to calculate the teams form. Many of these programs seem to put too much weight on a big victory, producing a "false" form rating. If a team wins in a game, and they've lost their 3 previous games, it's too early to conclude with a turn of form. Only when teams have been performing well in several games, we can say that a team is "in form". It's often more important to check your objects 5 latest games. First check the results, then check the opposition. Was the previous games against tough opposition ? Had the opposition been playing well for some time at the time? Was it a marginal victory with slices of luck in it? Harsh referreing decisions ? Did your team play well in previous games, but did not have the little luck needed to beat assumed better teams ? Listen to match reports, they often produce useful information for bettors. It's important not to look at the results only, but identify the happenings behind the result. This is the info that bettors use to identify value bets, and teams on the way up or down. Find the trends, and use them well. Teams are often on several bad runs and good runs during a season. Teams rarely lose and win every other game. No, teams often lose several in a row, and then win seferal in a row. We must identify these periods before the sportsbooks do. Note that the sportsbooks are using the form factor quite heavily when determining their odds. League tables and form is the major criterias used by the bookies. For bettors, it is important to identify tems "on the way up" earlier than the bookies, thus we get better odds. In order to beat the bookie we need to know something the bookie does not know. We must gather info from several sources. TV, newspapers, internet ezines, etc. Value Betting Odds calculation

To understand value betting, you got to understand first how the odds are calculated and to take advantage of this situation. The sportsbook takes into account several variables when calculating odds like: last matches, team form, previous matches between the 2 teams, injuries, weather and so on. Then the bookie puts all this together and comes up with a percentage. For example, let’s say that the match is between Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers and the match is played at Green Bay. After the calculation it comes up Miami X% and Green Bay Y% where X+Y=100. There is no other result so the 100% is split between the two teams. Then the sportsbook makes the odds. The odds are built in such a manner that with this percentages that prove reliable over time the sportsbook makes money no matter what the result in the field is. The bookie comes up with the money line that will have these characteristics. The money line will look something like this: Minnesota +160 Green Bay -180 which means that if you bet 100 on Minnesota , you will win 160 and if you bet 180 on Green Bay , you will win 100. If we calculate the percentages that the bookie had, it will come up a sum that is greater than 100 and the difference is the juice, the sportsbook’s win. Let’s say that after we calculate the percentages based on the odds, we come up with 107%. The juice here is 7%. For the example above tha calculation is done as follows: for 180 bet on Green Bay the gain is 100, so for 100 bet on Green Bay the win is 100X100/180=55,55. For every 100 bet on Green Bay we end up with 155,55 in total if Green Bay wins and for every 100 bet on Minneota we end up with 260 if Minnesota wins. Now the percentage assumed by the sportsbook is 100/155,55=0.6428 for Green Bay and 100/260=0.3846. if we add the two the result is 1.0274 and in percentage 102.74%. the juice is 102.74-100=2.74% in this case or 0.0274. This means that if the percentages assumed by the sportsbook are correct, the win will be 2.74% no matter what the result is. When you do Value Betting you thoroughly study the odds from the sportsbooks. Then you consider the home- away percentage distribution for the games. This shall in the long run give a profit. What you with value betting is that you calculate the percentages based on the odds offered by the sportsbook and you calcualte the percentages based on your information or intuition. If your Estimate % is greater than the Odds% then you have a value bet. Estimate%-Odds%>0 To understand Value Betting better we will look at some examples. Odds are set by sportsbook, estimate is your percentage for a home win or an away win. The point here is to always make the sum be a number higher than 0. This makes it a Value Bet. To successfully make money on Value Betting you must be patient, avoid quitting although losing the first number of bets. This will eventually give a profit. Value Betting with Small Odds (Betting on favorites) Often there are games with big favorites. The odds put in the favor of the favorites is too small after your calculations and you come up with a greater percentage, then you choose to back the big favorite.

Value Betting with High Odds (Betting on non-favorites)

Sometimes the sportsbook gives too small chances to non-favorites and you know that in this particular game the non-favorite has a biiger chance than what the bookie assigned. Then you can choose to place the bet on the non-favorite. However, if the odds are high and you stick to this strategy for a longer period of time (maybe the whole season) there are bound to be a couple of unexpected favorite defeats. These 'strange' results give a high profit, which will outweigh your losses in the long run. Since you never know when these 'strange' results occur, you have to patiently bet on the non-favorites.

Problems with Value Betting The main problem is the accuracy of the percentage distribution. The key is to wait for those special games that offer a high formula value. Obviously, the percentages must not be changed in any way to bring the formula answer above 0. The goal of value betiing is to find those games that are undervaluated by the sportsbooks and to take advantage of this situation on the long term. It is one of the key edges of the bettors. There are several websites that offer odds comparison. One such website is www.oddsexchange.com. OddsExchange.com is an online service for professional players and gamblers. It's a service that provides people with a real time information even on little changes which occur in the world of bets. OddsExchange.com uses the unparalleled technologies developed by BetResearch Ltd. OddsExchange.com provide services for the odds comparison. Odds are taken from the largest online sportsbooks with the help of Intelligent Web Agents (IWAs). IWAs scan web for changes at regular intervals. What's why the information presented by OddsExchange.com is always up to date and actual. Consequently the service allows customers to compare sportsbook's odds with the highest level of comfort. With OddsExchange you can: -compare odds from largest sportsbooks -find highest odds from each sportsbook -get profit with sure bets -view best value bets -subscribe to sure bets, value bets and highest odds from each sportsbook. Use them to find value bets and place those bets. This is no sure way to win, but it will give you a great advantage on the long term. After you set the odds it is time to choose the bet types.

3.BETTING

3.1. BET TYPES Straight/Side bets (All Sports) A straight/side bet is one of the most common forms of sports betting where you pick which team will win the game. For baseball, you bet on which team will win the game outright. For basketball or football there will generally be a pointspread as part of the bet. If the number is positive (+) then you add the points to your team's score. If the number is negative (-) then subtract those points from your teams score. The side with the higher score after the points are applied is the winner. For football and basketball the payoff is $100 for every $110 wagered unless otherwise noted. It is customary that when making a bet that you put up the juice as part of your wager. Therefore, $110 will be wagered if you specify a $100 straight bet. For baseball, the payoff is determined by the money line. If the money line is a negative number then you wager the amount of the money line for each $1 of your bet. For example, if the money line is -135 then you would wager $135 to win your $100 bet. If the money line is a positive number then you will wager $100 to win the money line. For example, if the money line is +125 then you would wager $100 to win $125. Example Teams Line

Price Total Price

Washington Redskins -7

-110

35

-110

San Francisco 49ers -2½

-110

44

-110

Bet examples: Washington Redskins -7 Risking $110. to win $100 San Francisco 49ers -2½ Risking $110. to win $100 Teams Line

Price Total Price

Los Angeles Lakers -17

-110

202

-110

New Jersey Nets

-110

185

-110

+2½

Bet examples: LA Lakers -17 Risking $110. to win $100.

New Jersey Nets +2½ Risking $110. to win $100. Totals (All Sports) When you bet on totals you are betting on whether the total points scored in the game will be higher or lower than the posted total. For football and basketball the payoff for a winner is $100 for every $110 wagered unless otherwise noted. It is customary that when making a bet that you put up the juice as part of your wager. Therefore, $110 will be wagered if you specify a $100 total bet. For baseball totals the total points seldom moves. Instead, line moves are done by applying a money line to the total. Therefore, your payoff will depend on the money line at the time of the wager. Example Teams Line

Price Total Price

St Louis Rams-11

-110

47

-110

Arizona Cardinals

+6

-110

38

-110

Bet example St Louis Rams over 47 risking $110 to win $100. Arizona Cardinals under 38 Risking $110. to win $100. Parlays (Football, Basketball, Hockey, and Baseball) A parlay is a group of straight bets or totals combined into one bet. For the parlay to win all of the individual parts of the parlay need to win for the parlay to be a winner. You can mix different sports on the same parlay. Parlay payoffs depend on how many teams are in your wager. Payoffs for football and basketball are shown in the table below. If there is a tie in one or more of your individual parts then the wager steps down to the next lower number of teams. If a 2 team parlay has a tie and a winner then the parlay pays 90% of the straight bet payoff except. However, when the winner is a baseball bet the payoff is 100% of the straight bet payoff. Example You can bet parlays in Football, Basketball, Baseball and Hockey. You can combine multiple sports to make up your 2-8 teams. Parlays No. of Teams Odds Payouts 2 Teams

13/5

$100 to win $260

3 Teams

6/1

$100 to win $600

4 Teams

10/1

$100 to win $1000

5 Teams

20/1

$100 to win $2000

6 Teams

40/1

$100 to win $4000

7 Teams

75/1

$100 to win $7500

8 Teams

150/1 $100 to win $15,000

Example Teams Line

Price

San Francisco 49ers -2½

-110

San Francisco 49ers over

35

Houston Texans

-110

-3½

-110

Customer Bet example 3 team parlay S.F. 49ers -2½ - S.F. 49ers over 35 - Houston -3½ Risking $100. to win $600. Teasers (Football and Basketball) A teaser is a group of straight bets or totals combined into one bet. The difference between a parlay and a teaser is that with a teaser the line you bet against for each individual wager is moved to your favor by the number of points of the teaser. If the regular line is -6 and you have a 4 point teaser then your line would be -2. As with a parlay, all of the individual parts need to win for the teaser to be a winner. Teasers are not available for baseball and you are able to mix Teasers for football and basketball. Teaser payoffs depend on how many teams are in your wager. Payoffs for football and basketball are shown in the table below. If there is a tie in one or more of your individual parts then the wager steps down to the next lower number of teams. If a 2 team teaser has a tie and a winner then the teaser pushes " No Action". If a 2 team teaser has a tie and a loser, the teaser loses. Example Ties lose on all Teasers except the 2-Teasers where a tie is a push. You can buy up to 1 full point on 2 Team Football Teasers. The cost is an extra .10 cents per half point. EX. 2 team 6½ Pt. Teaser is 12/10 and a 7 Pt. Football Teaser is 13/10

# Of Teams 6 Point 6 1/2 Point

7 Point

2 Team

100/100

110/100

120/100

3 Team

100/170

100/160

100/150

4 Team

100/280

100/250

100/200

5 Team

100/425

100/400

100/350

6 Team

100/600

100/550

100/500

7 Team

100/800

100/700

100/600

8 Team

100/900

100/800

100/700

10 Point Football Super Teaser No. of Teams Odds Payouts for a $100 bet 3 Teams

11/10 $110 to win $100

Example Teams Line

Price Total Price

Washington Redskins +7½

-110

35

-110

San Francisco 49ers -7

-110

38

-110

USC Trojans -9

-110

41

-110

Arizona Wildcats

+2

-110

51

-110

Bet example: 2-Team 6 point Football Teaser Original lines Washington +7½ & San Francisco -7 Teased Lines Washington +13½ - San Francisco -1 Risking $110. to win $100.

Bet example: 2-Team 7 point Football Teaser Original lines USC Trojans -9 & Arizona Wildcats +2 Teased Lines USC Trojans -9 & Arizona Wildcats +9 Risking $130. to win $100.

Bet example: 3-Team 10 point Football Super Teaser Original lines USC Trojans -9 , Arizona Wildcats +2 , USC Trojans Under 41 Teased Lines USC Trojans +1, Arizona Wildcats +12 , USC Trojans Under 51 Risking $120. to win $100.

Basketball Teasers betting: 4 points - 41/2 points - 5 points

Teaser bet payoffs are the following # Of Teams 4 Point 4 1/2 Point

5 Point

2 Team

100/100

110/100

120/100

3 Team

100/170

100/160

100/150

4 Team

100/280

100/250

100/200

5 Team

100/425

100/400

100/350

6 Team

100/600

100/550

100/500

7 Team

100/800

100/700

100/600

8 Team

100/900

100/800

100/700

7 Point Basketball Super Teaser No. of Teams Odds Payouts for a $100 bet 3 Teams

12/10 $120 to win $100

Example Ties lose on all Teasers except the 2-Teasers where a tie is a push. You can buy up to 1 full point on 2 Team Basketball Teasers. The cost is an extra .10 cents per half point. EX. 2 team 4½ Pt. Teaser is 12/10 and a 5 Pt. Basketball Teaser is 13/10

Teams Line

Price Total Price

Washington Wizards +7½

-110

185

-110

Los Angeles Lakers -7

-110

202

-110

UCLA Bruins -9

141

-110

+2

-110

-110

North Carolina Tar Heels

151

-110

Bet example: 2-Team 4 point Basketball Teaser Original lines Washington Wizards +7½ - Los Angeles Lakers -7 Teased Lines Washington Wizards +11½ - Los Angeles Lakers -3 Risking $110. to win $100.

Bet example: 2-Team 5 point Basketball Teaser Original lines UCLA Bruins -9 - North Carolina Tar Heels +2 Teased Lines UCLA Bruins -4 - North Carolina Tar Heels +7 Risking $130. to win $100.

Bet example: 3-Team 7 point Basketball Super Teaser Original lines Original lines Washington Wizards +7½ - Los Angeles Lakers -7 - UCLA Bruins over 141

Teased Lines Washington Wizards +14½ - Los Angeles Lakers -PK -UCLA Bruins over 134 Risking $120. to win $100. Pleasers (Football) A pleaser is a group of NFL side straight bets combined into one bet. The difference between a pleaser and a teaser is that with a pleaser the line you bet against for each individual wager is moved against your favor by 6 points. Pleasers are currently only available on NFL regular season side plays. Pleasers will not be taken on NFL totals, NFL preseason, or NCAA football at the current time. If the regular line is –10 and you play a pleaser then your line would be –16. Example 6 Point Football Pleasers No. of Teams Odds Payouts for a $100 bet 2 Teams

6/1

$100 to win $600

3 Teams

17/1

$100 to win $1700

4 Teams

45/1

$100 to win $4500

5 Teams

120/1

$100 to win $12000

6 Teams

300/1

$100 to win $30000

Example Teams Line

Price Total Price

San Diego Chargers +7½

-110

185

-110

Oakland Raiders

-7

-110

202

-110

USC Trojans -9

-110

141

-110

Arizona Wildcats

+2

-110

151

-110

Bet example: 3-Team 6 point Football Pleaser Original lines San Diego Chargers +7½, Oakland Raiders -7, Arizona Wildcats +2 Pleased Lines San Diego Chargers +1½, Oakland Raiders -13, Arizona Wildcats -4 Risking $100. to win $1700.

Round Robins (Football, Baseball , Basketball and Hockey)

A Round Robin Parlay is a wager in which three to 18 teams or totals are combined into a single play and all possible combinations of two or three team parlays are exhausted. They are used in all sports except in circled games and there is no buying points allowed. Because they are turned into 2 or 3 team parlays, the same rules apply as in a regular parlay; for example, if the Round Robin were in 2 team parlay combinations:

*The payoff on each 2 team parlay is 5/13, unless money lines are involved. *If one of the teams loses, all parlay combinations with that team are a loss *If one team pushes, then all combinations with that team would turn into straight bets. Also, whatever the player risks on the Round Robin must be applied to each of the 2 team parlay combinations. You can bet multiple sports in your combinations. Example Round Robin. ( A combination of 3-5 different 2-Team Parlays) No. of Teams Odds Payouts 2 Teams

2.6/1 $100 to win $260

Example Teams Line

Price Total Price

LA Clippers +7

-110

185

-110

Oakland Raiders

-7

-110

41

USC Trojans -9

-110

45

-110

-110

Bet example: 3-Team Round Robin distributed in $100 2-Team Parlays LA Clippers +7,Oakland Raiders-7 Risking $100. to win $260. LA Clippers +7,USC Trojans -9 Risking $100. to win $260. Oakland Raiders -7, USC Trojans -9 Risking $100. to win $260. Total at Risk $300 to win $780.

If Bets (Football, Basketball, Baseball, and Hockey)

An If Bet consists of two straight bets joined together by an IF CLAUSE. That is, if the customer’s first play is a win or a push, then we process his second wager. In If Bets the player gets Double Action (wager goes on only if the first one wins, ties or cancels). Each of the bets in the If Bet must be for the same amount or less than the first one, he cannot change each subsequent one to a higher amount; however, when you have money lines you have to be careful and see if the customer is taking only dogs, only favorites or a combinations of both. If Bets can be used for all of the four major sports (Football, Basketball, Baseball & Hockey), except circled games; and there is no buying points allowed. The advantage of placing an If Bet is that the customer can make sure to get action on all of the games that he is interested in. Sometimes he will have a pending wager that hasn’t been reconciled and there can be a game going of the board, so if he places an If Bet he will not have any kind of problem whatsoever. Example If bets are combinations of 2 Straight Bets/Sidebets. You can use multiple sports in your combinations.

If Bets Combinations Odds for a $100 Bet If win or Tie $110 to win $100 If Win only

$110 to win $100

If Lose or Tie $110 to win $100 If Lose only

$110 to win $100

Example Teams Line

Price Total Price

San Diego Chargers +7½

-110

35

-110

Oakland Raiders

-7

-110

44

-110

USC Trojans -9

-110

41

-110

Arizona Wildcats

+2

-110

51

-110

Bet example: 2-Team If Bet. If San Diego Chargers +7½ Win only Risking $110. to win $100. Next bet: USC Trojans over 41 Risking $110 to win $100. If the first bet is a winner then your second bet will have action.

Reverses These are simply two straight bets joined together into If Bets that work in both directions of the if clause, the risk is the same for all the wagers in the reverse, they are used for all the major sports except circled games, and no buying points is allowed. All reverse bets are double action: the remaining bets in the sequence will be placed if the preceding bet is a win, a “push,” or is cancelled for any reason. An “if bet” (double action) follows the sequence “if X wins, ties or cancels then Y.” Placing a reverse bet will include that sequence and its opposite: “if X wins, ties or cancels then Y” AND “if Y wins, ties or cancels then X.” As you can see, a reverse bet contains two “if bet” sequences, and you must lay down or risk an equal amount for each one: an if bet for $110 is $220 as a reverse bet.A two team reverse bet merely reverses the order of an initial “if bet”; however, if there are three or more teams, then the reverse bet would be broken down or "boxed" into all the possible two team if bets using those three teams and each of those if bets would be reversed. The sequence that would be used would be, as follows: If X wins, ties or cancels then Y (and) If Y wins, ties or cancels then X If X wins, ties or cancels then Z (and) If Z wins, ties or cancels then X If Y wins, ties or cancels then Z (and) If Z wins, ties or cancels then Y. Therefore, a three team reverse is actually going to be six separate if bets, or twelve separate straight bets. If each of the teams in this reverse were for $100, than the actual amount of money that the customer must risk would be $660, or $110 on each of the if bets, in order to win a maximum of $1,200. The more teams selected in the reverse the more possible combinations there will be and the higher the amount of money that must be risked. Example Reverses are a combinations of 2 If Bets . You can use multiple sports in your combinations. Reverses Combinations Odds for a $100 Bet Win or Tie

$220 to win $400

Win only

$220 to win $400

Example Teams Line

Price Total Price

San Diego Chargers +7½

-110

35

-110

Oakland Raiders

-7

-110

44

-110

USC Trojans -9

-110

41

-110

Arizona Wildcats

+2

-110

51

-110

Bet example: 2-Team Reverse If San Diego Chargers +7½ Win only Risking $110. to win $100. IF USC Trojans over 41 Win or Tie Risking $110 to win $100. Risking a total of $220 to win $400

Now, after you reviewed the bet types, you know what the alternatives are tyo build your own strategy to win in betting. The next element and a vital one is Money Mangement.

4. MONEY MANAGEMENT

4.1. SYSTEMS

The main Money Management Systems are: Martingale, Row of numbers ("Die Abstreichmetode”) and Kelly Criteria

The average bettor loose his money to the sportsbook largely as a result of poor money management. Sportsbooks can from time to time present very good prices, espescially after the sportsbook has had a few good weeks (often weeks with surprise results, many favorites losing, etc), and bettors' accounts are running empty. Sportsbooks know that even if they present a few good odds (I mean really good odds), average bettors will most probably deposit more money, and most certainly win this time, thereby increasing their sportsbook account. This is fine by the bookie, because he knows that the customer most likely will have an empty account in a few weeks time due to his poor money management anyway. The sportsbook will see this loss as a short term investment, because the average bettor will feel aroused by his winnings, he's getting eager, and start to bet more often and often with higher stakes. Unevitably, the bookie's getting his money back, with a solid interest on top..... Profesional bettors know that sportsbooks operate this way, (presenting good prices every now and then, get money circulation, let the customer feel he's winning, thus generating more cash flow, and eventually more money in the sportsbook coffers), and therefore they wait patiently for the next round with extra good prices offered. The profesional bettor do not get carried away after a few wins. He knows what to expect, and acts thereafter. The profesional bettor is not necessarily better to predict an events outcome than other bettors , but he's definitivly much better with money management. There are 3 systems for money management which are widely used by bettors: Martingale, "Row of numbers" (a.k.a "Die Abstreichmetode"),and the Kelly criteria Ofcourse, these systems are known under other names, but the function should be the same no matter the name. Martingale Martingale is probably the best known system for money management. Originally designed for use in casinos, this system has nothing to do with picking objects. Martingale is a system which helps you control your stakes. With Martingale, you can be a lousy bettor, but still win money. Please not that Martingale is a system with very high risk of going broke. The principle of the Martingale system is as follows: If you lose, you double your stakes, and if you win, you start all over on your starting stake. This means that you eventually will be ensured a profit. Follow this example: You've found a game with odds +100 for home victory. You bet 100$, but you lose, as the game ends in an away win. Next time you bet 200$ on a game with odds +100. If you lose again, you must bet 400$ on a game with odds +100. If you win this time, you've placed a total stake of 100+200+400 =700$, and you've won 100$ for your efforts. The 100$ payoff is equal to what you would've won on your first bet. Fantastic system, or what ? Certainly, if you had unlimited funds available. Or if the bookie would drop his maximum bet limit. Or if you have the sufficient cool when you hit a long losing run. Remember, with

odds=+100, you will have to wager 32 times your original stake if you lose 5 times in a row. And losing 5 times in a row is not too difficult with odds +100..... And even if you have lost 5 times in a row, you have no greater chance of winning the sixth time. Too many people think they'll have to win soon when they've lost many in a row. The fact is that the chances for a win is just as big (or small if you like) as when you started the betting sequence. Martingale is in other words a very dangerous system, and should be used by bettors with large funds and no nerves. In my opinion, Martingale is not a suitable money management system for the average bettor due to it's heavy level of progression Row of numbers The German word for this system is "Die Abstreichmetode". This is also a system well known from casinos, and has a lot in common with Martingale (recovering from losses by increasing stakes). But Row of numbers is not as tough as Martingale though. While Martingale can quickly give you your stakes back including a profit, Row of numbers does not repay your losses that quick, but it does not lead to big stakes either (which Martingale does). Row of numbers gives you more flexibility compared to Martingale because you can adjust your stakes in a more suitable way. The disadvantage is that this system requires more effort from you, as you have to make a row of numbers on a piece of paper and add numbers when you lose, and remove numbers when you win. You need to have better control with your betting, so to say. Let's have a look at the system: First decide how much you want to win. E.g 1000 $. Then you have to figure out how long it's going to take to reach your goal. This is the tricky part, because when you win you must remove the first and last number in the row, but when you lose you must add a number to the row. As a result of this, you must try to decide an average probability for a win, given a fixed odds. If you want to play on games with an average odds of +100, set your probability to 40% (or thereabouts). It's better to underestimate rather than overestimate your abilities. If you overestimate your ability, you will have to make up for it by increasing your stakes, and increasing the stakes can easily become rather unpleasant if you hit a losing streak. If we imagine the 1000$ split into 20 50$ wins, we can calculate how long you will have to bet in order to get a 1000$ total win, given the 40% chance of winning with odds=+100(a 50% chance means you're betting even with the sportsbook). With a 40% chance of predicting the +100 object correctly, you will lose 60% of the picks. Thus you lose 50% more often than you win (60/40). In the case of winning, you get to remove 2 numbers on the list (the first and last number). When you lose you must add a number at the end of the list. If we draw this row of numbers, it would look like this: 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Determining your first stake:

As explained above, the first and last number will be removed if you win. 50+50=100. In order to win 100$, you must use a stake which will give you 100$ in net profit. If the odds given is +100, you'll have to bet 100$. If the odds is -150 you must bet 200$. If the odds is 175 you must bet 133,33$. The method of determining the stake is: If the odds are + you need to bet 100$ to win the amount. If the odds are - the formula is (oddsXamount you want to win)/100 and the result is the amount you need to bet to win the profit you want.

You must ofcourse substitute "odds" with the actual odds offered on your object. If you win, you must remove the first and last number in the row, and then start fresh again.

Even though this system does not produce such a high level of progresion as Martingale, it's still a rather dangerous system. If you hit a losing streak, things can easily get out of hand. Therefore, your pre-betting calculations is of highest importance. Before starting with this kind of system, be sure to run a test period with fake stakes for a month or so. You will learn the system, and see the importance of modesty when determining your own predicting ability.

Kelly criteria Systems like Martingale and Row of numbers use high level of progresion to make up for the bettors lack of margins. In these systems, stakes are successivly increased when losing, thus the bettor are running a high risk of bankruptcy. In the Kelly Criteria, progresion increases when you are winning, and decreases when you are losing. The stakes are decided by a percentage of the size of your funds. In the Kelly Criteria, the risk of bankruptcy is virtually eliminated. The Kelly Criteria requires that the bettor have the probabilities on his side. When using Kelly, it's expected that the bettor can bet even with, or better than the sportsbook. If a home team has got odds = +100, you will only bet on the home team if you think it has a 50% chance or more.

The Kelly Criteria has got it's name from John L. Kelly, the American who invented this theory and formula.

In short, Kelly's theory says that if you can determine a somewhat correct probability for an events outcome, then the formula will determine the exact amount of your funds which you should bet on that event. If you overestimate your ability to predict an outcome (i.e you predict a 60% chance, when the correct prediction should be 52%), you will pay for it by losing money. If you underestimate your ability to predict the outcome (i.e you predict a 55% chance, when the chance is 60%), you will win money, but not as much as if you were betting with flat stakes. This is due to the fact that Kelly's formula optimizes your stakes if you are able to predict with a high degree of accurracy. With Kelly you make money by having only a small advantage on every game you pick. If you instead have a small disadvantage for evey game you pick (i.e you overestimate your predictions), you will lose money compared to flat stake betting

Before starting with Kelly, decide upon the following: Size of your fund A fund sized 10-15 times the size of your normal singlebet is enough. Ofcourse these funds must be funds you can afford to lose. Remember that with the Kelly Criteria, you will not lose all your money straight away, because the stakes are decided as a percentage of the actual size of your fund. How often, and how well you are able to pick value-objects Experience is vey important in the art of sportsbetting. Picking value objects correctly, and often enough, is ofcourse the trickiest part. Only by gaining experience you can become a clever bettor. The sportsbooks do not offer a lot of value objects, so you have to shop around with several sportsbooks, and look for objects with a high spread. High spread means that sportsbooks have different views to what is the correct odds on a match. Use services on the Internet to compare odds from several sportsbooks. Crastinum and Gamblersdomain are examples of excellent free services. Sportsbooks rarely offer many valueobjects during a week. Do not expect to find value in more than 2-5 events during a week. When you find an object which you think has got value, check this event carefully. If the odds presented is +100, the team MUST have more than a 50% chance for victory, because the size of the stake is directly related to the winning probability (which is your subjective opinion). Lenght of the project For how long will you continue to play with this system? If you have set yourself a goal with your betting, finish the project when your goal is reached, and start all over again. This way you get to realise the money you've earned, and thereby strenghtening your moral and dicipline. If you've not set yourself a goal, reset your fund when

it approaches 100% payoff. Remember as long as your money is in the sportsbook account, it's the sportsbook who possesses the money, not you. And what's the point of earning money when you cannot use them as you please ? Therefore, decide when to reset your fund when you have reach a predefined amount, and start it all over again. Make your earnings visible.

Lets examine the system closer: The biggest advantage with the Kelly Criteria is that you will lose less money when your fund is low. This is due to the fact that your next stake is a percentage of the fund's actual size. When the size of the fund is low, your next stake will also be low. If your average stake is 10% of your total funds, then you can lose 6 times in a row, and still have nearly 48% of your funds left (take 0.9 and multiply with itself 6 times). I won't bother you with advanced statistics (infact I'm not so sure I understand it myself either...), but if you've got the probabilities on your side (you bet with a 10% advantage on the bookie every time), the chance of losing 10 times in a row (at odds=+100) is 1/3000 !!!

Kelly is not a system which provides rapid changes to your account. With Kelly you make money by having the required little margin, the extra 5% on each game. If you have the margins on your side, Kelly makes your stakes increase. If you lose, stakes will decrease. As a result of this, you will not experience great changes to your account. Kelly is a system for bettors who do not bet jut for the sake of money, but also for the sake of their own satisfaction (when the prediction turns out to be a good one).

Conclusion

If you are a bettor with a high risk profile (you like to gamble), and you know that you rarely predict better than the sportsbook, then Martingale, or Row of numbers, could be your money management system. But be ware of the dangers represented with these systems. Their progression rate can be devastating, and can take the mickey out of your projet long before it's even started.

If you have a low risk profile (you consider betting to be an investment with slightly more risk than a stockfund), and you know you are able to predict slightly better than the sportsbook, then Kelly is your system. Kelly is the system of the profesional bettor, a system for bettors who thrive for perfection. A system who optimizes the handling of your funds, if, and only if, you can predict better than the "enemy", i.e the sportsbook.

4.2. SPREAD BETTING

With sportsbetting as with everything else in life, it's important to set yourself a goal. If you don't have a goal with your betting, it may get out of hand. You may start betting every day, you may start betting harder to make up for earlier losses, you suddenly place impulsive bets, and the whole thing can become rather unpleasant. Therefore, take a few moments thinking over the following:

What is spread betting ?

Spread betting has become very popular in recent years, due to the possible massive returns on low investments. But it's also possible to lose very large amounts indeed ! Spread betting is the most exciting method of betting, but it's not for novices. You should be aware of the risks with spread betting, and be sure you understand the rules. DO NOT BET BEFORE YOU UNDERSTAND THE GAME. In spread betting, you do not know excactly how much you will win/lose before the event has finished. Your return will vary with every goal scored, every booking, every corner, etc. It's not like fixed odds betting. Spread betting is much more "dangerous", and as a result, more exciting.

In spread betting, you will win a lot more than in fixed odds betting, if you are better to predict than the sportsbook. However, you may risk to lose quite a lot, if you fail to predict better than the sportsbook. Due to the nature of spread betting, one bad bet can make huge inrows in your account.

Spread betting, something for you?

Spread betting is a high risk form of betting. Only play with money you can afford to lose. Companies who offer spreads will normally ask for a deposit, but be ware that your potential los can exceed that deposit. In my opinion, spread betting is not for the ordinary bettor. Spead betting is a dangerous form of betting. However, if you want to win big, fast, and are willing and able to absorb the loses, then spreads is the most exciting form of betting available!

Fixed odds vs spread betting

Fixed odds betting is "fixed", meaning you will always know before you place the bet what the possible outcome is. You will know how much you may win, and how much you can lose.

Spread betting is different. You may lose a lot, or win a lot, depending on how accurate you are with your predictions.

The sportsbook will offer a spread, withing a range of values (normally 0-100). The sportsbook will perhaps offer a spread of 40-60. This is known as the sportsbooks opening prediction. You must then decide whether to bet higher or lower than the sportsbook's predictions. If you bet higher than the bookie's prediction, you think that the result will become higher than the bookie thinks, and when you bet lower, you think the outcome will be lower than the bookie expects.

If you are right, you will win, but only with an amount which is determined by the correctness of your bet (i.e the difference between the actual outcome and the bookie prediction).

If you are wrong, you will lose, but only with an amount which is determined by the incorrectness of your bet (i.e the difference between the actual outcome and the bookie prediction).

EXAMPLE: The possible outcome for a bet could be 0-90 (also called "the range")

The sportsbook quotes an "opening spread of 40-50". In other words, the bookie thinks the outcome will be between 40 and 50.

The bettor has now got 2 options:

1 Higher than 50 (known as "Buy at 50") You will win if the outcome exceeds 50 (ie. 50-90 or more)

2 Lower than 40 (known as "Sell at 40") You will win if the outcome is lower than 40 (ie. 0-40)

Important: You, can't make any bets other than the two listed above. You can't place a bet, saying "Higher than 35", or "Lower than 50".

You place your bets staking for instance 10$ per point. When the bets are placed you sit back and wait for the outcome. In this example, we say that the outcome was 70.

Correct bet: If you bet "Higher than 50") you win, and the amount you have won is found by the difference in points between outcome and bet, ie. 70-50 = 20. You have won by 10 points, and multiplied with your stake of 10$, your return gives 10$ x 20 = 200$.

Incorrect bet: If you bet "Lower than 40") you lose, and the amount you have lost is found by the difference in points between outcome and bet, ie. 70-40 = 30. You have lost by 30 points, and multiplied with your stake of 10$, your now owe the bookie 10$ x 30 = 300$ !!! (now you see what I mean. Spread betting is a dangerous game !!)

No win situation If the outcome is between the spread quoted by the bookie (in this case 40-50), then "nobody" wins. Actually the sportsbook wins, due to his profit margin. If you had bet on "Higher than 50", and the result was 45, then the bookie will win the difference multiplied with your stake.

Example:

You bet "Higher than 50". Result is 45. Sportsbook wins (50-45) * 10$ = 50$ !!

If you bet on "Lower than 40", in a 40-50 spread, and the result was 45, you would also lose 10$*5 points = 50$.

This is ofcourse the sportsbooks profit margin The smaller the spread, the smaller profitmargin for the bookie.

Placing the bets

Previously we've stated that spread bets are not placed the same way as fixed odds bets.

With fixed odds betting, you always know how much you may win, and how much you may lose. No "hidden surprises". Money are placed in front of the bet.

Spread bets are different. Different methods of staking are used. Spread bets are placed typically in $ per unit (or any other currency per unit). But the point is that you don't actually place the stake before the event takes place, as in fixed odds betting. Due to the high risk of spread betting, your stake is the maximum possible loss (related to your bet).

Depending on the type of account you have, there are 2 methods used for this:

1 Credit Account - funds are already deposited to an account. Wins/losses are paid/withdrawn from the account. There are no money paid when the bet is placed, but there must be sufficient funds available in the account to cover a potential loss. Check the rules , because they might vary from bookie to bookie.

2 Debit Accounts - here debitcards are used, such as Mastercard or Delta. Upon placing bets, the maximum possible loss is debited from the card. Depending on the result of the event, funds are credited back to the card. Ofcourse this form of staking are used in bets where there is a defined win/loss cut-off, (ie a defined range, for instance 0-100). A maximum loss can then be calculated before the bet is placed. Be sure to check rules carefully on this point as well, as they may vary with different sportsbooks.

Debit Account Example: If you place a bet "Higher than 60" (buy at 60), the maximum loss you can experience is 60 points (difference between 60 and 0). A stake of 10$ per unit requires that 10$*60 =600$ is debited from your card before the bet. Let's assume the outcome of the bet is "50". You will then lose (60-50) points * 10$ = 100$. 500$ will be recredited your card (remember that 600$ was originally debited)

Types of spreads.

Football and soccer spreads are very popular. These are the most common types of spread betting:

First goal First booking Total goals Margin of win Others

Time of first goal:

Value range:

0-90 (if a goal occurs in the 90th minute, this will normally not count)

Typical spread:

38-42 (although varies depending on type of match)

Example:

You predict there will be a goal before the 38th minute. Then bet at "Lower than 38", at for instance 2$ per minute.

Result:

First goal scored in the 21. minute.

Your return:

(38-21)* 2$ = 34$ win

Time of first booking:

Value range:

0-90 (booking in the 90th minute normally does not count)

Typical spread:

28-32 minutes (but varies from match to match)

Example:

You predict there will be a booking before the 28th minute. Then bet at "Lower than 28", at for instance 3$ per minute.

Result:

First yellow card in the 44th minute.

Return:

(44-32) x 3$ = 36$ loss

Total goals:

Value range:

0-unlimited

Typical spread:

1.7-2.3 (varies greatly)

Example:

You think that there will be 2 or more goals in a game where the bookie offer the spread 1.7-2.3. Then you bet on "Higher than 2.3 at for instance 3$/ tenth.

Result:

2-1 to the away team. (3 goals)

Return:

(30-23) x 3$ = 21$ win

(if it ended a 1-1 draw, you would lose (23-20)x3$ = 9$)

Please note !!! objective

I guess you are confused by betting on tenths of a goal. The main

with a spread like the one quoted above is to decide minimum wins if you bet correctly. If you bet on "Higher than 2.3" it means that if you are correct, you will minimum win 3.0-2.3=0.7 goals = 7 units.

If you bet on "Lower than 1.7", you will minimum win 7 units (1.7-1.0 = 0.7) Margin of win:

Value range:

-unlimited to + unlimited

Typical spread:

0.0 - 0.5 home team (but varies a lot, ofcourse)

Example:

The bookie belives the home team will win by a narrow margin, thus presenting the spread 0.0-0.5. You predict the home team will win by at least 1 goal, thus you bet on "Higher than 0.5" with a stake of, lets say 5$ per tenth.

Result:

Your team wins 4-1. (3 goal margin)

Return:

(30-5) x 5$ = 125$ win

Lets assume your team lost by 2 goals:

Return:

(-20-5) x 5$ = -125$ loss

As you can see, you pay a heavy prize if you are wrong in your predictions. If you are correct, you are rewarded well, but it's equally expensive for you wallet if you are wrong...

Other spreads Other typical spread offers are listed below:

Total Bookings: The sportsbook awards a number of points for a yellow card (normally 10) and a red card (normally 25). Add together the points of all the cards in a match (for instance, 3 yellows and 1 red gives a total of 55 points). The sportsbook quotes a spread based on this total. You decide whether to bet higher or lower.

Total Corners: How may corners will there be in a match? This is ofcourse more like bingo, but can be very exciting and amusing when watching a match in front of the TV with your friends :)

Time of ...: Time of First Goal and Time of First Booking are mentioned above, but the same system can be applied to many other minute-by minute events. Examples: Time of Second Goal, Time of Last Goal, Time of 2nd-Half First Goal, etc, etc. I wouldn't waste too much money on this type of betting, go buy yourself a lotto coupon instead !! There are of course lots of other spread betting offers. Generally a spread can be offered for everything that can be measured !!!

Conclusion Spread betting is a very exciting form of betting. Your return will vary with virtually every kick of the ball. This makes spread betting ideal for televised games. Nowadays most sportsbooks accept spreads on the most popular leagues. In-match betting has also become popular in recent years. With in-match betting you can place bets during the match, with the advantages and disadvantages which may follow.....

Spread betting is the form of betting which best repays your skills, but also the method which will rob you if you are not up to standards. Be aware of that, and remember to read the rules carefully.

4.3.ARBITRAGE(RISK-FREE BETS)

Arbitrage A trading technique whereby exactly offsetting positions are taken in a market simultaneously but at different prices. The difference in price represents an immediate risk-free profit that is independent of the subsequent movement in price of the instruments traded. This technique has long been used in financial markets, which can be difficult for non-professionals to access. SPORTS-ARBITRAGE Numerous arbitrage situations, also referred to as surebets, scalps and risk free bets, are created everyday in sports-betting markets amongst the growing number of worldwide sportsbooks in existence. These anomalies show up regularly & repeatedly. AN EXAMPLE A NFL match between Atlanta Falcons & Jacksonville Jaguars returned the following marketanomaly between William Hill & Gamebookers: ATLANTA

GAMEBOOKERS

-117

JACKSONVILLE

WILLIAM HILL

+150

This arbitrage yields a profit of just over 6%, meaning that a correctly structured investment of $1000 would yield $63.22 of risk-free profit regardless of which team won the match.

1. PREPARE YOURSELF

Open all of the important sportsbook accounts NOW so that you are ready to pounce as soon as an arbitrage is created.: If you use the links provided then you will also receive the highest bonuses currently on offer from each sportsbook. These run from 10% to 40% so you will find yourself in profit before you even begin. The reason these companies give out such bonuses is because they know that most gamblers will just lose it by betting, plus a whole lot more. This will not the case for you, however, because you will never be gambling. As an Sports Arbitrage Trader, you will bet, but you will ALWAYS make a profit. And remember - you will not need to place any funds on any of the accounts until you actually have an arbitrage opportunity to invest in. 2. FIND AN EVENT LIKELY TO YIELD AN ARBITRAGE OPPORTUNITY These events include US Football, Basketball, Soccer, Tennis, Golf, Cricket, Boxing, Baseball and a number of others. Lesson 2 will explain in more detail what to look out for. You can check the online arbitrage-events calendar to see what events are taking place that are likely to yield risk-free betting opportunities: 3. CHECK THE PRICES BEING OFFERED ON THE EVENTS YOU HAVE CHOSEN Using the internet, check through the prices offered by the sportsbooks you have decided to use and make a list of which ones are offering the best prices on the events you are covering. You can do this with paper, pen and a calculator, but if you want to take this opportunity seriously, consider using spreadsheets. 4. CALCULATE THE PERCENTAGES FROM THE ODDS Use these tables to assess whether the prices you have will produce an arbitrage betting opportunity. Conversion Tables The tables are a rather old-fashioned way of going about this though, and I recommend that you consider upgrading to spreadsheets for this operation - it performs all of the necessary calculations for you, including how much you need to stake on each outcome. 5. ACT QUICKLY & PLACE YOUR BETS Once you have found an arbitrage opportunity, act immediately. Place your bets. It is best to open up 2 (or 3) separate browser windows so that you can have one sportsbook in each. This will allow you to place your bets almost simultaneously. 6. MAKE A NOTE OF YOUR ACTIVITY IN YOUR ACCOUNTS

It's important to keep track of all of the bets you place and the flow of funds. You can customise any accounts software to do this - just set it up to include each bank and credit card account plus each sportsbook account. Note every transaction you make - transfers from account to account, outgoing payments, wagers placed, pending and actual returns. Be sure to give each arbitrage investment its own ID number so that you can easily tie all related transactions together. 7. REPEAT STEPS ALL OF THE STEPS AS MANY TIMES AS YOU WANT TO! Yes, it really does work and you really can choose how often you want to generate a risk-free profit.

The two types of betting have been included here because they are related directly with the money management and they can have a different impact on your bankroll than the normal bets.

4.4. STAKING PLANS

There are really two parts to a successful betting strategy. The first is to find a successful method of predicting sporting events through the principles of value betting. Without an edge, no betting system will be successful. Where a bettor has achieved one, however, his second task is to plan a staking strategy in order to maximize his profits. Merely increasing the stake size or the odds on a bet with a view to securing a greater return is not, however, the safest way to achieving this goal. The downside to such a basic approach is an increase in bankruptcy risk. Instead, the bettor must learn to identify, assess and mitigate the perils associated with his betting strategy through effective risk management. What this actually means in practice is a study of staking strategy and money management. Proper money management may mean different things to different people, but common elements include: 1. the application of a bankroll of known size, set aside for the purposes of betting, which if lost would not be detrimental to everyday living; 2. the identification of a suitable staking plan; 3. the maximization of returns; 4. the reduction and control of bankruptcy risk to acceptable levels. There exist myriad staking plans, some with very elaborate names, including Martingale, D'Alembert, Oscar's Grind, Steady Drip, Kelly, Rolling Bank and many more. All of them in some way attempt to increase the profits a bettor can win above those achievable from simple

level staking. In the main they are successful, but for many, with an unacceptable increase in risk. Broadly speaking, a staking strategy is likely to fall into one of 4 different categories: 1. 2. 3. 4.

fixed staking; variable staking; percentage staking; and progressive staking.

For fixed, or level, staking, every bet placed is assigned the same stake size, regardless of the betting odds. Level staking forms the benchmark staking strategy against which all others should be compared for profitability and risk evaluation. Many bettors see weaknesses with level staking and prefer to vary the size of their bets according to various criteria, including their strength and their odds. A bettor, for example, may choose to standardize the amount he wins for every successful bet. Where all the odds are the same, this will amount to level staking. Where the odds differ, the stake sizes will vary. This strategy might suitably be called the fixed profits staking plan. Percentage (bank) staking, like level staking, standardizes the size of the stake, but as a percentage of the size of the current betting bank at the time the bet is placed, rather than as a fixed number of points proportional to the initial bankroll. Kelly staking, which goes further than simple percentage bank staking by seeking to optimize the stake size according the odds and the edge the bettor has estimated he has over the sportsbook, is a hybrid of percentage and fixed profits staking. Finally, progressive staking involves increasing or decreasing the stake size after each bet, according to whether it won or lost, with a view to recovering earlier losses or enhancing gains whilst on a winning run. The Martingale and Pyramid staking plans are two examples of loss chasers. There are other, more complex staking progressions, but basically they all share a common goal. A common misconception amongst less-experienced bettors is that some staking strategies, in particular the progressive staking plans, can turn loss-making systems into profitable ones. This is impossible and represents a misunderstanding of the mathematical principles that underlie such strategies. The problem, from a statistical perspective, is that to test any staking strategy one needs to have a reasonable number of results with which to work. To examine its exposure to risk, it is not simply good enough to analyze your own betting record, since this just represents one permutation of all possible betting histories due to the inherent randomness or noisiness in the way sporting results sequence themselves. A profitable record cannot, on its own, define the chance its underlying strategy has of failing. Similarly, an unprofitable record is not necessarily evidence of a flawed betting system, although the bettor will be very tempted to give it up. To circumvent this difficulty, one must resort to a statistical analysis of the staking plan. The best way to achieve this is to simulate it using a computer model. The most suitable staking strategy for a bettor will depend extensively on his attitude to profit making and risk taking. A short-term gambler may prefer to stake large and risk more in an attempt to make a quick and sizeable profit. Conversely, a long-term fixed odds "investor"

will prefer to employ more a more conservative staking strategy, where staying in the game is more important than making fast money. A bettor who acknowledges and understands the uncertainties inherent in fixed odds sports betting, however, will be better able to choose a strategy best suited to his risk-reward preferences. Here are a few traps that you should avoid if you want to be net winner at the end of the day. Good money management is what separates the pros from novice bettors. Money management theories and systems abound but I have yet to see any proof that any of them really work. What you have to know is there are a lot of bad money management strategies to avoid and that is what you will cover below. Here is the key point you need to understand – poor money management generates more losses for players than bad handicapping. Even the worst bettors seldom lose more than 55% of their picks. The easiest way to explain is to show a few examples. Take a look at the following four scenarios and hopefully you won’t recognize any of these habits as yours. Scenario A – Raising your bet amounts. Alan is a $100 player. He typically plays half a dozen or so games a week and is a dedicated handicapper. The first week he makes 5 wagers of $110 to win $100 and goes 4-1. For the week, he has made a profit of $290 (4 wins of $100 and 1 loss of $110), a great week by any standard. He now thinks his handicapping skills are so sharp that he can beat the house on any week and now raises his plays to $200. In the second week he makes 6 bets of $220 to win $200 and goes 2-4. For the week he has lost $480 (2 wins of $200 and 4 losses of $220). So overall, Alan has lost $190 despite going 6-5 overall (54.5%). If he had simply played $110 on all 11 games he would have made $50 in profit. Raising the size of your plays after a short-term winning period will benefit the House greatly if and when things even out. Scenario B – Lowering your bet amounts. Bill is also a $100 player but has a slightly smaller bankroll than Alan. He makes 6 plays of $110 and goes 2-4 for a loss of $240 (2 wins of $100 and 4 losses of $110). His bankroll is now too small to be able to play $100 a game so in the second week he only makes 5 plays of $55 to win $50 each. This week he wins 4 of the 5 and makes $145 (4 wins of $50 and 1 loss of $55). He now has the same overall winning record as Alan (6-5) but is down $95 anyway. Lowering the size of your plays after a shortterm losing period or not having enough funds to make your plays will also benefit the books when your turn to win comes. Scenario C – Risking your balance. Charlie likes to take big risks for big rewards. He posts up $110 and risks it all on a single game Saturday night, which he wins. His balance is now $210 and he risks it all on a Sunday 1pm game, which he also wins to bring his balance to just over $400. Feeling lucky, he puts the whole amount on a 4pm game and wins again to get his balance to an incredible $765 (and change) in less than a day. Then, he decides to go for the big win and risks the whole amount again on the Sunday night game, which he loses. Charlie has now lost $110 despite going 3-1. Wagering $110 for each of the four games would have yielded a profit of $190. Remember books have a 50/50 chance of wiping you out when you put all your action on any one game and those odds will catch up with you eventually. Scenario D – Chasing your losses. David has a bankroll of $1000. He wagers $110 on a game and loses. He is frustrated at losing the money and wants to win it back so he wagers $121 (to win $110) on a second game and loses as well. He is now down $231 and is really

frustrated. Thinking he can’t lose 3 in a row, he wagers $254.10 (to win $231) and loses yet again. He has now lost $485.10 and even a win with his remaining balance of $514.90 won’t get him back to even but he puts it all in play on another game hoping to get it close (it would be a win of $468.09). He loses the fourth game and has busted out. Losing streaks will happen to every player every year no matter how good they are and players that chase losses will not last for long. Many books/sites that discuss money management will tell you to only wager 2-5% of your bankroll on any one play. I cannot say what the magic number is and I certainly do not have any magic formulas for picking winners or telling you how much to bet. However, it is very clear to me after years and years of watching some players win consistently and others lose consistently that these are the four worst traps to avoid. Keep your bets to reasonable, affordable and consistent amounts and your bankroll will last a long time. Even more importantly, if you can pick more than 52.4% winners, you will come out ahead of the book in the long run and that is the only time frame that matters! Good money management will not make you a winner, that still has to come from choosing the right teams, but it sure will help your bankroll last. I had a lot of very nice emails from players who took this advice last season. Some said they won money over the course of the season for the first time but most just said it was the first time they had a plan, and that their money lasted way longer last year than in years prior.

5. TRACKING

5.1. BETTING RECORD

It is essential that the Bettor keeps a betting record. It is necessary to do this such that the Bettor can determine

•

their current betting finances

o

Is the Bettor suited to gambling?

o

Is the staking system suitable?

•

fruitful bet types

o

What bet types are producing the best results?

o

What bet types to avoid?

•

inaccurate Analysis & Selection Criteria

o

Analysis all bets and note any reasons that may have led to an inaccurate forecast.

o

Learn from mistakes.

By keeping a betting record the Bettor will gain and fine tune their knowledge of betting. Betting Records for individual Bettors will vary, some producing more detailed records than others.

5.2. CHECK LIST

You have here the following checklist to help you in determining whether to bet, what to bet on, how to bet and where to bet.

Step 1 Analyze Teams and create list of teams of interest. See Team Analysis Section for more details. Sections of Interest : Team Analysis

Analyze Matches against teams selected, create list of matches of interest. See Match Analysis Section for more details. Sections of Interest : Team Analysis - Match Analysis or Analyze Matches and create list of matches of interest. See Match Analysis Section for more details. Sections of Interest : Team Analysis - Match Analysis Step 2 Analyze Matches in detail checking out details as stated in the Team Analysis Section. Sections of Interest : Team Analysis - Match Analysis Step 3 Analyze the Odds for the selected outcomes as stated in the Odds Analysis Section. Sections of Interest : Odds Types Step 4 Determine the Bet Type that is suited to the selected outcomes that adhere to the Bettor's Betting Strategy as described in the Bet Types Section. Sections of Interest : Bet Types Step 5 Maintain a Betting Record following the principles outlined in the Betting Record Section

6. BETTING STRATEGY

A betting strategy is a must for any successful bettor. Betting Strategies differ immensely depending on the type and style of the bettor. There are 2 basic types of bettor: • •

those who bet to win those who bet for fun

The ideal bettor is one who combines both of these characteristics. The bet to win Bettor will have invested more time and energy in doing their research on systems, selections etc... This is a never-ending process where knowledge, practice and experience are the corner stones of a successful betting strategy. The bet for fun Bettor will bet with the heart and gut feelings, sometimes doing some research, sometimes not. The bet for fun bettor in general will make some short term profit, but long term this will turn in to a loss. Short term profits can be eroded quickly as the bet for fun bettor can get carried away and squander their profits. A bet for fun Bettor can easily progress to become a bet to win Bettor by choosing, implementing and sticking to a betting strategy. A bet to win Bettor has more fun, more adrenaline rushes than the bet for fun Bettor. The key to long term success is discipline. Know when to bet, how to bet, how much to bet, and where to bet. Betting Strategies vary according to the style of the bettor. Betting Styles can differ on the following counts • • •

Analysis & Selection Criteria (Home Win Only, 100% Recent Form, League Matches Only, Top v Bottom etc..) Bet Types (Straight Wagers, Parlays, Teasers, etc..) Staking System (Fixed Weekly Amount, % of Bank etc..)

In terms of Bet Type, some bettors religiously stick to singles thus reducing the number of variables affecting the outcome of the bet. Other bettors will go for accumulators citing the returns as the value of the bet. Some sportsbooks propose betting on the smallest combination of results available unless the odds allow you to cover your bet with draws. What follows is a general structure of the various components of a betting strategy. A betting strategy should include the following Analysis & Selection System Team Analysis Match Analysis League Analysis Odds Analysis Bet Types Staking System (Money Management) Betting Record The Bettor should decide on a betting strategy that suits their remit, stick to it, continually analysis it and learn from it. Bear in mind a betting strategy can be as complicated or as simple as the Bettor deems necessary. The number of variables listed in the above

components may appear daunting; however, in reality you will only use a subset of them. Too few variables may prove futile, too many variables makes the process tedious. No. 1 Rule is to enjoy betting. Also if you look at the way they use the information the betting strategies are used following 3 basic approaches: -technical-the bettor uses only statistical data to find patterns on teams, matches, favorite vs. non-favorite and so on. the actual matches have no importance and the bettor is looking that the predetermined statistical data will appear sooner or later. -fundamental-the bettor analyzes the teams and matches from the current perspective and value at the moment of the match. He takes into account injuries, form, streaks and so on. He starts with the conviction that the result on the field is the result of the performance of the teams at the moment of the match. -a mix of the two. What is important for you to know is that you decide what kind of strategy you use and not to change it in the short term because the effect of the probabilities is gone if you do. If you choose one kind of strategy stick to it long enough to give it the time to perform. Now you have all the components to build a winning strategy. What you read so far is valuable information that will help you build the strategy that fits your personality and to which you adhere completely. You have all the elements to know what to change in your strategy and why if it doesn’t perform as you would like. One element that has a major influence on the overall performance of your betting is the selfdiscipline to follow a certain system and not to try to override it in any way once you decided how to play. The most important thing that accounts for the success of the bettor and the one that recieves the least amount of attention is the Psychology involved in the betting. The Psychology behind the Betting Strategy is the single most important thing that account for your winning or losing in the world of betting. That explains why so many people are winning in sports betting. In the following section we will take an in-depth look at this aspect. Treat it carefully because here the difference between winners and losers is made.

7. PSYCHOLOGY

7.1 COMMON PROBLEMS

Knowing yourself means understanding how you’re likely to behave under various circumstances. Over the time, researchers in psychology have developed a clearer understanding of the psychological traps bettors fall in. The best way for you to avoid these

traps is to become aware of them, the forms they take, and which you are most likely to fall into. Here are five common issues: •

•

•

•

•

Over-confidence. Psychologists discovered that people consistently overrate their abilities, knowledge, and skill—especially in areas outside of their expertise. Gamblers must seek and weigh quality feedback and stay within their circle of competence. After a win people tend to over-play, so pay attention to your reactions and stick to your predetermined plan. Anchoring and adjusting. In making a decision, we often give disproportionate weight to the first information we receive, hence anchoring our subsequent thoughts. You can downplay this risk by seeking information from a variety of sources and talking to various people. Improper framing. The decisions of bettors are affected by how a problem, or set of circumstances, is presented. Even the same problem framed in different, and objectively equal, ways can cause people to make different choices. Framing, too, plays a central role in assessing probabilities. It is not the same if you see opportunities or threats after a series of losses that you had in your betting. Irrational escalation of a commitment. Players tend to make choices that justify past decisions, even when circumstances change. To avoid this trap, they must only consider future costs and benefits. You must keep in mind that you don’t have nothing to prove. If you play to win and not for pleasure only, your job is to make money and not to be right. The game is not a personal quest against the betting or against some sportsbook. Confirmation trap. Gamblers tend to seek out information that supports their existing point of view while avoiding information that contradicts their opinion. That’s why you are better if you have somebody to talk to.

You must also understand how you tend to react under stress. People with different personality profiles behave in dissimilar ways when stressed. Here again, self-awareness and some basic techniques to offset suboptimal behavior go a long way. It is very important that you keep your discipline even after a series of losses and get on with your system. If you do, you ruin the chances of the probabilities upon which your system is built.The gambler's fallacy and concept of availability error are key for gamblers. Best players in the sports betting arena or in gambling in general have an understanding of these concepts built into their betting strategies. The Gambler's Fallacy One of the easiest mistakes you could make in betting is thinking that past bets influence future ones. This common mistake is sometimes called the gambler's fallacy, and it often leads people to bet more money and to bet more often than they otherwise would. For instance, many people know how to figure that there is only one in sixteen chances that a fair coin will come up heads four times in a row. But if the coin has already come up heads three times in a row, then the chances that it will do so for the fourth time are the same as they would be if it had never been tossed before-one in two. However, it is easy to make the mistake of thinking that this coin has only one in sixteen chance of coming up heads. It seems that the coin should make the average of past tosses come out right. But in reality, the coin does not remember past tosses and feels no obligation to even out the number of heads and

tails that have come up before. As we make more and more coin tosses, the ratio of heads to the total number of tosses will approach to one half, but this does not mean that there will be exactly (or even close to) the same number of heads as tails, nor does this mean that in the course of a few tosses things will come up even anywhere near. This is true, also with respect to the streaks that teams have over the year. Because a team has lost the latest three games it doesn’t mean that there is a bigger chance than normal to win the fourth game. So, don’t put your bets on a team that is in a losing or winning streak thinking that it has a bigger chance than normal. However, the psychological factor plays a big role in sports, but remember to weigh any situation according to the current circumstances. Misunderstanding this fact, many gamblers aspire to believe they have more information than they really have, and can cause them to be more willing to over-play than they otherwise would.

Availability Error The second major mistake people make, and which increases their tendency to over-play, is called availability error by psychologists. This is the common tendency we all have to focus only on good, unusual, or easily remembered experiences, forgetting the bad, common, or less available ones. For instance, hearing that someone has won at the casino sticks in our mind more than hearing that someone has lost the same casino. We remember winners more than losers, and mistakenly think that the chances match our memory. This explains why people put more money into bets when they are part of a group, where they can hear and see signs that others are winning, rather than when they play individually, where they have no recent memory of someone's winning. And people consistently do this, despite the fact that the odds are just as bad for the group as for the individual. Memories of winners are simply more available for the large groups than the individuals that play alone. We may also think that if we know or heard of a winner it must not be very hard to play successfully. Many people have a story about how their cousin or their brother’s boss won onceon some great bet. But there are several things that are left behind from such stories. Most important is the fact that someone lost thousands of dollars before and after making that great win. Many great wins (so called) are, in fact, only small wins that barely cover the cost of playing, and which serve to lure people to continue betting and losing more money. The sports books take advantage of our tendency toward availability error and exploit our memory of the one great win while encouraging us to forget the many losses. Moreover, when we hear a story about our brother's boss' win, we tend to assume that because we have heard of this person and have some link to him or her, even far-off, and winning must be more likely than we had thought. But we never hear the story of our colleague’s brother who lost twenty thousand dollars to the sportsbooks gambling on tips with no strategy. And if we wanted to hear all the stories of the times that our relatives' acquaintances' friends or our friends' acquaintance's relatives lost money while playing, we would have no time for anything else. Clearly, by such a network of associations you can hear information of essentially every other person in the entire world.

Some people use drugs and alcohol for excitement, while there are players that will risk money only for getting that rush of adrenaline. However, the majority of players use the betting money properly, meaning they don’t bet money that has different destinations. Doing this, they are able to concentrate on the betting more accurately and they don’t need to think what will happen if they lose. A small number of players bring bad attitudes into the game and those attitudes prevent them to play appropriately.

Betting Habits Some players will bet only on sure matches out of an extreme aversion towards risk and consequently they don’t lose much, but they don’t win much either. At the other end of the stick are the bettors that play on multiple games in the hope they will get the jackpot. They play on high stakes games and rarely one of them wins. They are compulsive players and usually they make money, but for the sportsbooks.

Money Management How players keep account of their wins or losses tells very much why they are in the game: to win or for the pleasure. If they are for the win they should know at all times what their balance is in the game and this is necessary information also to be able to rate their systems and to operate the appropriate changes.

Money as the Drug of Choice Some players prefer the low risk game and this is an image of all they do in their life. They are very careful with the bets and they don’t do it for the excitement. They don’t like the change and probably they are the same in the day to day life. The style of playing is a reflection of the personality and beliefs of the player.

Moral Money Attitudes On one extreme, there are players who put value on their money and they usually do pretty well. They don’t like to spend money. They are not betting for recreation. They are there to make more money so they can show how successful they are. The other extreme is players who seem ashamed to win. “Money is the root of all evil” is the essence of their attitude. They bet very cautiously and agonize over losing. They will not feel great whether they win or lose. In short, they use betting money to feel tainted. In their private lives they’ll be miserly with money. Having money is their source of safety and spending seems to take away their sense of power. Yes it’s true that money talks, and we all know what walks!

7.2 WINNING EDGES

Profiling Gamblers

How can a gambler or someone who is concerned about a loved one who gambles determine whether there is a problem? Some players are good while some are bad players. At the same time, some players are organized and others are sloppy. Some are loose and some are tight. According to Gamblers’ Anonymous, 6 percent of the population is what it is known as compulsive gamblers. However for the rest of the players there are 4 areas of expertise. 1. Betting. First of all, ask yourself, “How do I bet my money?” In other words, how do you spend money? Many players bet on hunches only. Others will be very structured and their bets are based on odds. How one invests their money can tell a lot about a player. Good players tend to have guidelines to determine how much to bet, when to increase their size and when to drop it. Playing hunches without regard to what is possible will identify the poor player. 2. Managing. Money management is one of the essential keys to survival in any gambling endeavor, and it’s an area where most players can improve. Some players will use money that they can’t afford to lose. Often, a player may play with what is called “stolen money.” Money taken from household or business budgets to gamble is always a mistake. Chasing your luck and getting more and more into debt is not the way to manage your money. Winners know when to invest their stakes and when to wait. You must play in such a way that you absorb the losses while waiting for the winning bets. And your system accounts for this. That’s why it is essential to test your system based on historical data. If the expectancy is not so great ask yourself what needs to be done to build a system that will ensure that you win in the long-run. As well, to give your system the best of returns make sure that you don’t bet money that you can’t afford to lose. 3. Thinking. Playing styles can range from passive to aggressive and from structured to impulsive. Somewhere in the middle of these traits is ideal. Good players know how to mix hunches with the odds of making wise bets. Betting with no regard to the odds of making a hand is the same as not thinking at the tables or driving blindfolded. Sportsbooks love nonthinking play and may even encourage you by providing bonuses or reduced juice on occasions. Most of the money is made from people that don’t have a structured system and play on hunches or inspiration.

4. Quitting. You bet too much, and never quit when you are ahead? Many players don’t have a win/loss rule and they expect a winning streak to last forever. When they are winning they are feeling confident and they think that they can do no wrong and consequently they bet more than usual. These players often only give back their winnings, but lose their original stake. Knowing when to leave ahead is important to sports betting. Have a guide like leaving the game for a while when you encounter abnormal losing streaks. Analyze what happens and if you do everything right, get back into the game fresh and with the confidence that you do what you must do and the losses don’t occur as a result of poor execution. Also, you can get away from the game from a while after a long winning streak. Stay for a while, enjoy the winnings and start again fresh.

5. Gambling Awareness. According to the questionnaire that is distributed by Gamblers’ Anonymous, answering “yes” to seven out of twenty traits will identify compulsive gamblers. However, the majority of gamblers are not compulsive and yet, they may have problems with gaming. If you do, take the appropriate measures. It is insane to do the same thing and to expect different results. However, if you are in the compulsive gambler category, it is rather hard to do something without professional help. Accept that you have a problem and take the required steps towards a new attitude. If you are aware of what is happening and you enjoy the situation, then you don’t need any advice.

There are actually three ingredients to success in living life as well as in gambling. The sports betting is a game based on skill, but the luck has its part although it cannot make a winner out of a loser.

Essential Qualities

Three essential qualities emerge to combine the best of playing attitudes and aptitudes: - First of all, you must like yourself and know how to take care of yourself during good times as well as bad times. This means that as a responsible player you have internalized a supportive belief system. If your belief system is not dependent on the most recent past bets you are well on your way to win at the game. An internal supportive belief system (about self and others) is one that will sustain players in good times and bad ones. Rather than being selfdefeating, successful players are their own best friends. This is especially true under stress. -You must come prepared with the necessary information and skills. Responsible players make sure that they have the skills and information required to do their best. This includes the wisdom to act on your knowledge and to obtain the knowledge that you lack. Skills apply in processing the information available on teams, games and the environment in which the event takes place. Good players develop the skill to quit, and to take risks when the odds are worth it.

-Finally, you must have permission to apply what talents you’ve developed and to succeed. Your set of belief must not stand in your way when it comes to betting. You can only allow yourself to succeed when there are no internal conflicts about your skills and about winning. If you have a deep–rooted belief about not deserving to win, you will sabotage yourself again and again. To win at sports betting, you must install the right set of beliefs that allows you to express at the fullest of your potential. Many good players know how to take care of themselves. They also have obtained the requisite information they need to get the job done. However, they may still lack the necessary permission to be successful and the willingness to risk. The freedom to act on the knowledge and experience you possess is just as important as knowing what to do. How often have you said, “I knew that! I wish I had listened to myself.”? Some people play until they are broke and fail to leave when they are well ahead by giving back the hard earned winnings. The ingredients for success in sports betting will also point to success in other facets of your life. Simply put, we all must do things with self-confidence and not rely on others to validate who we are and what we do. Too many players bet in the hope to get that validation from others and measure their success or failure by how much they have won or lost. Winning is hard work. Success comes with learning the basics and then getting the on-the-job experience to develop skills. Besides having positive aptitudes, being successful comes from having personal permission to succeed. You may have the skills along with luck, and still lack the attitude that you are really deserving of success. Losing attitudes abound, such as blaming everyone except one’s self, being too aggressive, or too conservative, and many more. Winning There are players, who watch things happen, players who make things happen, and those who end up broke, asking themselves what happened. When players make things happen they are probably winning, or at least betting intelligently and having fun. When players passively let things happen, they are likely in one of two modes: Losing or Breaking Even. For some, breaking even is winning enough. For others, breaking even means risking funds that are needed to pay bills. Players who neither win nor lose are non-winners, “almost” players who won’t quite reach their goals. They are more inclined to let things happen. “Making” vs. “Letting” Things Happen Passivbetting usually involves playing on hunches and feelings. In short, not thinking. While it’s true that people can be lucky and do win on hunches, too many passive players consistently let impulse rule their responses. Losing is the eventual outcome. Such losing players almost never take responsibility for how they play. While losing streaks happens to everyone at some point, winners willanalyze what went wrong and learn something from their mistakes. Winners accept losses rather than pretend they don’t exist. On the other hand, losers prefer to blame everything but themselves. A loser is not actively playing the odds or analyzing the information available. A loser passively lets hands happen. Just as some people wait for success to come to them, passive players complain about how the bad luck stroke them when they were about to win. It’s always something or someone outside of themselves

that stopped them from winning. Winners play with money they can afford to invest. Yet, you will see irresponsible players betting poor odds at almost every sportsbook, risking money they can’t afford to lose.

Attitude

In order to win at sports betting, you must get used to losing because you will do much of it. You need to build a system that will absorb the losses and prepare you for the times when the wins come your way. That is the responsibility of a system: to make sure that over a series of events you come out net winner no matter what happens. That’s why it’s essential that you have the discipline to follow your system. If you override your system the positive expectancy of your system will turn into a negative one because you will chase the results and the possibility to miss increases. The attitude that you have when you enter the game of sports betting better includes the following guidelines if you want to stand a chance to end up net winner.

- Accept responsibility for how you play. However, a winner will seek solutions and learn something from his mistakes. A winner takes these losses, gets the most out of them and moves on. A loser prefers to blame the world, the sportsbook, or the friend that gave him the tip. Just as some people wait for success to come to them, others will sit, lose, and complain. They fail to say “no” to losing. - Know that it’s okay to lose. Losers hide it, lie to others as well as themselves about their losses, and keep playing to make up their deficits: attitudes of defeat that are all too often selffulfilling. Winners accept the realities of the game and play accordingly. -Set reasonable expectations. Recognize that losing is as much a part of the game as winning. Losers seem to evaluate their value by how close to perfect they are. A loser seldom settles for 4 out of ten wins while winners are happy with decent betting averages. Know that your betting capital has some expectancy and concentrate on the average results rather than on big wins. Its okay to bet to try to hit a big win, but at the end of the day don’t expect the wins to come from those high-risk bets. If it does, so much better for you, but your betting should be based on solid systems. -Refuse to play catch-up. This is a loser’s favorite game to play. They lose and keep playing, hoping to win back their losses. Players who play what they can afford and stop when they reach that limit are being responsible. True, both may be losing at the time but a winner knows when to stop, conserving his capital. Losers generally feel shame, guilt, anger, and remorse, throwing caution and judgment to the winds. Responsible players may be disappointed but understand the vagaries of the game and will monitor themselves. -Choose to make things happen. There are players who watch things happen, players who make things happen, and then there are players who say, “What happened?” Making things happen, paying attention to the specific information in the game, and playing the odds are attitudes that increase your batting average and enjoyment at the betting game

We come to the end of the psychology section. No doubts, this is the most important part of the game. What else could account the massive difference between those who win and the majority of the bettors who lose at sports betting? The information available is the same. As you already know, there is no secret system that accounts the top performance of the few who make a living from sports betting or who win large sums of money. From the technical point of view, the sports betting is an easy eandeavor, the information is available in large quantities, and the systems are available as well. You have to assume the fact that you must be able to predict the outcome of a match. Then, you might ask yourself what is it that makes it so difficult to win when all the information is available? The reason why most people don’t win at sports betting is because they see the things differently than those who win. Let me explain this. The problem is that they expect to win every single time that they bet and they can’t stand to lose money. Because of this, they don’t think they need a system that will absorb all the losses and will produce a positive overall performance. A system is a tool that makes you a net winner over a series of bets. In other words, with the help of a system, you make the probability works with you and not against you. Also, with a system, you have an edge that makes the probability to win more than the probability to lose. If that is easy to understand at a theoretical level , it is very hard to implement at a functional level. That is the problem with most people. They start with a system, but they don’t stick with it. When you want to play in order to win at sports betting, you can’t rely only on intuition and hunches because you tend to distort information. Even more, if you are down on your bankroll, it is harder to concentrate on the matches. All you have in mind is how to get back on terms. Most people don’t follow a system because they lack of the discipline to do it. With the proper discipline, you can make money even with an average system while with lack of discipline, you lose even with the best of systems. So, it’s not so much about the system, it is very much about the discipline you put into it. Saying this, you have now all the tools to be a winner at the sports betting. There is an equation of Psychology+System+Execution=Win. The proportion which you solve each part of the equation will account the level of success you will enjoy in the game.

Take this guide and read it until you understand all the parts and how they work together as a whole. Winning at sports betting is not an exercise of luck, it is the right attitude translated into betting with the help of a positive expectancy system.

Well, until next time good luck at the game although you won’t need it... ☺