Kase_sem

Focus on Kase Studies, Analytics and Forecasting Presented by Cynthia A. Kase, CMT, MFTA Kase and Company, Inc. CTA

Copyright Kase and Company, Inc. All rights reserved

Session Agenda •

Part One, 2:00-2:45 – – –

•

Part Two, 2:45-3:05 –

•

Trading – DevStops and Candles

Break, 3:20-3:30 Part Four, 3:30-4:10 – –

•

Trading – Filtering and Entry

Part Three, 3:05 – 3:20 –

• •

Introduction KaseSwing Waves Analysis

Trading – KaseMDA and Momentum Exits Trading and Portfolio Management

Part Five, 4:10 – 5:00 – –

Overview of Kase Forecasting Methods Outlook for Various Markets

Copyright Kase and Company, Inc. All rights reserved 2010

2

KaseSwing


KaseSwing may be used for…. • • • • •

Picking Waves Useful for Entries and Exits Identifying Geometric Formations Determine Peaks for Momentum Divergence Count Bars for Gann or Fibonacci Number


4

KaseSwing 1, 2 and 3 JNJ Daily


5

KaseSwing 1, Insides On and Off JNJ Daily


6

KaseSwing 1, Insides On with Labels LCM10 Daily


7

KaseSwing 2 with Date/Time Labels SPX Index 60-Minute


8

KaseSwing 2 with Bar Counts (Beta) GCZ0 Weekly


9

KaseSwing 3 with All Swing Labels SPX Index Daily (Bar Count Beta)


10

GE Daily


11

KaseSwing 1 and 3 GE Daily


12

Adding KaseSwing Number Labels GE Daily


13

Waves Analysis and Calculations


Forecasting is different from Market Timing • Forecasting – – – – –

Market going up for down? Opposite direction first? Where are the targets? Where is support or resistance? What are key threshold or decision points?

• Market Timing (Trading) – – – –

When to buy or sell When to take profit When to cut losses When to add or subtract from a position


15

Wave Basics or Kase Wave Analysis What Is a Wave and Wave Cycle • Impulse Wave = XY • Corrective Wave = YZ • Wave Cycle = XYZ

Down Cycle Up Cycle

Invalid and Irregular Waves Up wave = Z lower than X

Down wave = Z higher than X


16

Calculating Targets and Proportions Impulse Projections “X- Y” Multiplier 0.62 ( 1 - 0.38 ) 1.00 1.38 ( 1 + 0.38 ) 1.62 2 * 1.38

Extension Name Smaller than Equal to Intermediate Larger than eXtended C ( or 3 )

Notation S E I L XC

Corrective Projections “Z- Y” Math Multiplier Φ 1.618 Φ^2 2.618 Φ^3 4.236

Extension Name Phi to First Power Phi to Second Power Phi to Third Power

Also…. Copyright Kase and Company, Inc. All rights reserved 2010

Notation P1 P2 P3

3 2 Y /X 17

Wave Projections T Daily

X 23.78

Y 25.66

Z 23.88

S 25.0

E 25.8

I 26.5

L 26.9

3X 29.9

XC 29.1

3X (25.66 3/23.78 2)=29.87 Within 2% XC (25.66–23.78)*2.764=5.20 23.78+5.20=28.98 Within 0.58% I (25.66–23.78)*1.38 = 2.59 23.88+2.59=26.47 Within 0.22%


18

Wave Projections T Daily X 23.88

Y 25.18

Z 24.5

S 25.3

E 25.8


I 26.3

L 26.6

3X 28.0

XC 28.1

P1 25.6

P2 26.3

P3 27.4

19

Wave Projections T Daily X 23.88

Y 26.41

Z 25.79

S 27.4

E 28.3

X 23.78 23.88 " Copyright Kase and Company, Inc. All rights reserved 2010

Y 25.66 25.18 26.41

I 29.3

Z 23.88 24.5 25.79

L 29.9

S 25.0 25.3 27.4

3X 32.3

E 25.8 25.8 28.3

XC 32.8

I 26.5 26.3 29.3

P1 26.8

L 26.9 26.6 29.9

P2 27.4

3X 29.9 28.0 32.3

P3 28.4

XC 29.1 28.1 32.8

P1 26.8 25.6 26.8

P2 28.5 26.3 27.4

P3 31.4 27.4 28.4

20

Wave Projections TRV Daily

X 47.69 48.17 48.46


Y 50.05 51.64 51.05

Z 47.77 48.46 49.53

P1 51.5 53.6 52.0

P2 53.7 56.8 53.5

P3 57.4 61.9 56.0

21

Wave Projections TRV Daily X 51.22

Y 50.03


Z 50.76

S 50.0

E 49.6

I 49.1

L 48.8

3X 47.7

XC 47.5

P1 49.6

P2 48.8

P3 47.7

22

Wave Projections MCD Daily

X 65.31 68.59 "

Y 71.54 73.33 74.07


Z 68.59 71.04 72.55

S 72.4 74.0 75.9

E 74.8 75.8 78.0

I 77.2 77.6 80.1

L 78.7 78.7 81.4

3X 85.8 83.8 86.4

XC 85.8 84.1 87.7

P1 73.4 74.7 75.0

P2 76.3 77.0 76.5

P3 81.1 80.7 79.0

23

Wave Projections EURUSD Daily

X 1.1877 " " " 1.2152 1.2588 " Copyright Kase and Company, Inc. All rights reserved 2010

Y 1.2487 1.2722 1.3334 1.3647 1.2722 1.2919 1.3647

Z 1.2152 1.2523 1.2588 1.3000 1.2523 1.2644 1.3000

S 1.252 1.305 1.349 1.406 1.288 1.285 1.362

E 1.274 1.337 1.405 1.472 1.309 1.298 1.401

I 1.297 1.369 1.460 1.538 1.331 1.310 1.439

L 1.311 1.389 1.495 1.578 1.345 1.318 1.463

3X 1.374 1.460 1.495 1.781 1.395 1.361 1.586

XC 1.378 1.486 1.495 1.775 1.410 1.356 1.578

P1 1.266 1.284 1.379 1.396 1.284 1.309 1.396

P2 1.298 1.304 1.454 1.456 1.304 1.336 1.456

P3 1.349 1.337 1.575 1.552 1.337 1.381 1.552

24

Wave Projections EURUSD Daily

X 1.1877 " " " 1.2152 1.2588 " Copyright Kase and Company, Inc. All rights reserved 2010

Y 1.2487 1.2722 1.3334 1.3647 1.2722 1.2919 1.3647

Z 1.2152 1.2523 1.2588 1.3000 1.2523 1.2644 1.3000

S 1.252 1.305 1.349 1.406 1.288 1.285 1.362

E 1.274 1.337 1.405 1.472 1.309 1.298 1.401

I 1.297 1.369 1.460 1.538 1.331 1.310 1.439

L 1.311 1.389 1.495 1.578 1.345 1.318 1.463

3X 1.374 1.460 1.495 1.781 1.395 1.361 1.586

XC 1.378 1.486 1.495 1.775 1.410 1.356 1.578

P1 1.266 1.284 1.379 1.396 1.284 1.309 1.396

P2 1.298 1.304 1.454 1.456 1.304 1.336 1.456

P3 1.349 1.337 1.575 1.552 1.337 1.381 1.552

25

Detail of Wave A GE Daily

X 13.75

Y 15.35


Z 14.36

S 15.3

E 16.0

I 16.6

L 16.9

3X 19.1

XC 18.8

P1 16.0

P2 17.0

P3 18.6

26

Detail of Wave a/A GE 60-Minute

X 13.75 14.57

Y 14.31 14.99


Z 13.81 14.78

S 14.2 15.0

E 14.4 15.2

I 14.6 15.4

L 14.7 15.5

3X 15.5 15.9

XC 15.4 15.9

P1 14.6 15.1

P2 15.1 15.3

P3 15.9 15.7

27

Detail of Wave C GE Daily

X 14.25 " 15.97


Y 14.81 15.56 16.47

Z 14.31 15.21 16.08

S 14.7 16.0 16.4

E 14.9 16.5 16.6

I 15.1 17.0 16.7

L 15.2 17.3 16.9

3X 16.0 18.6 17.5

XC 15.9 18.8 17.4

P1 15.1 15.8 16.7

P2 15.6 16.1 17.1

P3 16.4 16.7 17.8

28

More Detail of Wave C GE Daily

X 15.21 "

Y 16.0 16.31


Z 15.81 15.97

S 16.3 16.6

E 16.6 17.1

I 16.9 17.5

L 17.1 17.7

3X 17.7 18.8

XC 18.0 19.0

P1 16.1 16.5

P2 16.3 16.9

P3 16.6 17.4

29

Gap Projection with Candlesticks GE Daily Made $17.29 on 10/08

Projection is 17.37

15.79

Pseudo Harami Star with Hammer

14.24 X 13.75 " 14.57 14.25 " 15.97 15.21 "


Y 14.31 15.35 14.99 14.81 15.56 16.47 16.0 16.31

Z 13.81 14.36 14.78 14.31 15.21 16.08 15.81 15.97

S 14.2 15.3 15.0 14.7 16.0 16.4 16.3 16.6

E 14.4 16.0 15.2 14.9 16.5 16.6 16.6 17.1

I 14.6 16.6 15.4 15.1 17.0 16.7 16.9 17.5

L 14.7 16.9 15.5 15.2 17.3 16.9 17.1 17.7

3X 15.5 19.1 15.9 16.0 18.6 17.5 17.7 18.8

XC 15.4 18.8 15.9 15.9 18.8 17.4 18.0 19.0

P1 14.6 16.0 15.1 15.1 15.8 16.7 16.1 16.5

P2 15.1 17.0 15.3 15.6 16.1 17.1 16.3 16.9

P3 15.9 18.6 15.7 16.4 16.7 17.8 16.6 17.4

30

Calculating Retracements Retracement Target Z = Y+/- ((Retrace %/100)*(Y-X)) Retrace % = 100*(Y-Z)/(Y-X) YZ “Retraces” XY

CLZ0 Daily Retracements

Percent 21 33.3 38 50 62 66.6 89

Provenance Fibonacci Combined Phi Combined Phi Combined Fibonacci

Calculating Target 79.75 – (0.62*(79.75 – 72.35)) 79.75 – (0.62 * 7.4) 79.75 – 4.59 = 75.16

Calculating Percent 100*(79.75 – 75.1)/(79.75-72.35) 100* (4.65/7.4) = 0.628


31

Calculating Retracements for a Forecast GCZ0 Daily

From: 21% 38% 50% 62% 78% 89%

1048.2 1089.9 1127.8 1161.2 1224 1233 1241 1248 1186 1202 1216 1229 1159 1180 1199 1216 1133 1159 1182 1203 1097 1130 1159 1185 1073 1110 1144 1173

1172 1250 1233 1221 1209 1194 1183

The market may be tough but I slept like a baby last night – woke up every hour and cried. Copyright Kase and Company, Inc. All rights reserved 2010

32

Filtering and Entry


KaseSwing Entry (1) GE Daily

Swing Low Taken Out Sell Short

Swing Low Sell Short When Taken Out


34

KaseSwing Entry (2) AAPL Daily

Swing High Buy When Overcome

Swing High Overcome Buy


35

KaseSwing Entry (3) EURUSD Daily




36

Synthetic Longer Bar Length • Combines last X (default 5) bars to create synthetic longer bar length Daily 4B 5A

5B

Synthetic Weekly B A

2B 3B 3A 4A 1B 2A 1A


37

Kase Permission Stochastic and Function • Kase Permission Stochastic applies Stochastic to synthetic longer bar – Permission Long, when • Oversold • Neutral and K>D

– Permission Short • Overbought • Neutral and K
– Triggers earlier than longer bar length on higher time frame chart

• Kase Permission Function plots as On/Off Histogram


38

KaseSwing Entry (4) GBPUSD Daily

Swing Low Taken Out Sell Short (8/18/10)



39

Weekly Stochastic Filter GBPUSD Weekly

7 trading days late

Slow Stochastic Crossover = Permission Short on 8/27/10


40

Kase Permission Stochastic Filter GBPUSD Daily

Swing Low Taken Out Permissioned Short on Higher Time Frame Sell Short

Swing Low Sell Short When Taken Out and Filtered Short

Kase Permission Stochastic Crossover = Permission Short on 8/12/10


41

Kase Permission Function Filter GBPUSD Daily

Swing Low Taken Out Permissioned Short on Higher Time Frame Sell Short

Swing Low Sell Short When Taken Out and Filtered Short

Permission Stochastic Crossover = Permission Short Permission Function Shows Long Permission as Green and Short as Magenta


42

KaseSwing Entry (5) GE Daily

Swing High Overcome Buy (7/13/10)



43

Weekly Stochastic Filter GE Weekly

3 trading days late

Slow Stochastic Crossover = Permission Long on 7/16/10


44

Kase Permission Stochastic Filter GE Daily

Swing High Overcome Permissioned Long on Higher Time Frame Buy Swing High Buy When Overcome and Filtered Long

Kase Permission Stochastic Crossover = Permission Long on 7/9/10


45

Kase Permission Function Filter GE Daily

Swing High Buy When Overcome and Filtered Long

Swing High Overcome Permissioned Long on Higher Time Frame Buy

Permission Stochastic Crossover = Permission Long

Permission Function Shows Long Permission as Green and Short as Magenta


46

KEES – Kase Easy Entry System Three Basic Principles 1. 2/3rds Momentum Xovers Long or Short 2. Permission by Filter and/or Pattern 3. Second Signals


47

KEES Filtered Entry Signals (1) GBPUSD Daily

1st Sell

Pullback That Holds Previous Swing High 2nd Sell Gets in One Bar Earlier


48

KEES Filtered Entry Signals (2) GE Daily

2nd Buy 1st Buy Pullback That Holds Previous Swing Low


49

KEES Filtered Entry Signals (3) GOOG Daily

Pullback

2nd Buy

Consecutive Buy

1st Buy


50

KEES Filtered Entry Signals (4) S&P 500 Index Daily

Pullback

2nd Buy

Consecutive Buy 1st Buy


51

KEES Filtered Entry Signals (5) TWX Daily

1st Sell New Low and 2nd Sell Consecutive Sell

Pullback and 1st Buy


52

Kase DevStops and Filtered Candlesticks


Four Stop Levels • Warning Line • DevStop 1

S&P 500 Index

– Use after danger signs – Use after partial exit

• DevStop 2 – Use when before trade is profitable – During uncertain conditions

• DevStop 3 - Default stop • Scale out using combinations S&P 500 Index

10 Years Crude Oil TRD


54

Kase DevStops CVX Daily

Dev1 (1.0 StdDev)

Dev2 (2.2 StdDev)

Dev3 (3.6 StdDev)

Warning line (average)


55

Kase DevStops MCD Daily


56

Kase DevStops BA Daily


57

Kase DevStops BA Daily


58

Kase DevStops SPX Index


59

Kase DevStops SPX Index


60

Using Kase DevStops for Forecasting Follow Through after Warning Line Hit Example Table Percent Chance of Hitting Next Stop Hit/Hit Warn Dev1 Dev2 Dev3 Dev4.5 Dev1 85 Dev2 70 82 Dev3 61 72 87 Dev4.5 52 62 75 86 Dev6 44 51 62 72 83


61

Candlestick Patterns – False Signals


62

Filtering Candlesticks with Momentum • Most turns preceded by a candlesticks • Candlesticks often not followed by turn • Filter with OBOS – Bearish when overbought – Bullish when oversold

• Use on daily and longer • Accelerate stops • Use in forecasting


63

Kase Filtered Candlesticks Identify

• Harami Line and Star • Morning and Evening Star • Piercing and Dark Cloud Cover • Bullish and Bearish Engulfing • Hammer and Hanging Man Copyright Kase and Company, Inc. All rights reserved 2010

64

Kase Filtered Candlesticks NG Continuous Daily

Stochastic


65

Accelerating Stops: Completing and Confirming Patterns • • • •

“Completed” usually requires close against Harami Line midpoint “Confirmed” usually requires a close against the previous open Engulfing lines are by definition completed and confirmed Piercing patterns, Dark Cloud Covers by definition are not confirmed


66

Harami Line and Star GE Weekly with Completion Point

Completion = 15.5 Confirmation = 14.97

Stochastic


67

Dark Cloud Cover and Hanging Man GE Daily with Confirmation Point Confirmation = 11.43

Stochastic


68

Harami Line and Star and Piercing Pattern AAPL Weekly with Confirmation Points


Confirmation = 10.77

Stochastic


69

Bullish Hammer Rough Rice Daily with Confirmation Point Confirmation = 10.23

Stochastic


70

Morning Star CVX Weekly with Confirmation Point


Stochastic


71

Bearish Engulfing Line AAPL Weekly

Stochastic


72

Hanging Man IBM Daily

Stochastic


73

StatWare™ for Bloomberg Free Fully Functional Trial One Month Trial Enable Trial, Download Manual Signup for Lessons and Watch Training Videos at KASE

Weekly Forecasts on Crude Oil and Natural Gas Enable Free Four Issue Trial and Get Sample Forecasts at FKST

KASE FKST www.kaseco.com www.kasestatware.com Copyright Kase and Company, Inc. All rights reserved 2010

Kase and Company, Inc. CTA 223 N Guadalupe St. PMB 540 Santa Fe, NM 87501 (505) 237 - 1600 (Call Center) (866) 526 - 2350 (Fax)

74

Kase MDA and Momentum Exits


Swing Exit EURUSD Daily


Alternate Stop Placement Based on Average Size of last few Swings Alternate Exit when Taken Out

Stop Placement Exit when Overcome



76

Swing Exit GE US Equity Daily Swing Low Taken Out Sell Short

Alternate Stop Placement Based on Average Size of last few Swings Alternate Exit when Taken Out Stop Placement Exit when Overcome



77

Swing Exit AAPL US Equity

Alternate Stop Placement Based on Average Size of last few Swings Alternate Exit when Taken Out


Stop Placement Exit when Taken Out Swing High Overcome Buy


78

Momentum Divergence Signals Bearish - Higher or equal high in price and lower or equal high in momentum. Bullish - Lower or equal low in price and a higher or equal low in momentum.

CL Daily Continuous Bullish Divergence

CL Daily Continuous Bearish Divergence

KasePO

KaseCD


79

Kase Momentum Divergence Algorithm KaseMDA – Automatically Identifies Divergences • Draws trend lines for divergences on price and momentum – Red lines for KaseCD – Green lines for KasePO

• Algorithm developed to filter divergences properly using: – – – –

Slope filter Line of sight Tolerance Bridging and Take Outs

• Will be available as study for use with other non-proprietary momentum indicators on Bloomberg


80

Kase Momentum Indicators • Look at ratio of logarithmic price movement to volatility • No. of standard deviations of excursion • Use variable cycle lengths • Based on 2 sigma idea • Uses range and volatility, not price


81

Momentum Predicts Turns

How Well Indicators Predict Turns Indicator Warn RSI 89% M ACD 90% Stoch 89% KasePO 92% KaseCD 92% PeakOut 86% KCDpeak 73%


Dev1 70% 72% 68% 75% 75% 70% 51%

Dev2 46% 52% 46% 54% 53% 53% 43%

Dev3 26% 30% 26% 31% 30% 47% 40%

Close >> 18% 22% 18% 22% 21% 34% 34%

82

Kase PeakOscillator (KPO) • Similar to simple oscillator, except uses serial dependency • Difference between degree of trend up versus down

KasePO


83

KaseCD (KCD) • Is to MACD as PeakOscillator is to Oscillator • KaseCD (KCD) = PeakOscillator - SMA PeakOscillator KaseCD


84

Kase Divergence Study As Published in “The Two Faces of Momentum” Cynthia A. Kase SFO Magazine – October 2003

• Kase 77% - Traditional 52% for all turns • Catches 50% more turns • Kase 10% - Traditional 30% for big turns


85

KasePO, KaseCD and RSI ESM0 Daily, Apr/May 2010

KasePO

KaseCD

RSI


RSI Misses Turn

86

KasePO, KaseCD and RSI NG Daily Continuous, Aug/Sep 2009

KasePO

KaseCD

RSI


RSI Misses Turn

87

KasePO, KaseCD and RSI CL Daily Continuous, Jun/Jul 2006

KasePO KaseCD

RSI

RSI Misses Turn


88

KasePO, KaseCD and MACD ES Daily Continuous, Feb/Mar 2009

KasePO KaseCD

MACD

MACD Misses Turn


89

KasePO and Stochastic CL Daily Continuous, Dec 2009/Jan 2010

KasePO

Stochastic

Stochastic Remains Overbought


90

KasePO, KaseCD and Stochastic EURUSD Daily, Dec/Jan 2010

Kase Pinpoints Turn

KasePO

KaseCD

Stochastic Remains Oversold Stochastic


91

Double Divergence – Exit 100% SPX Index Mar 2008

KCD and KPO Divergence Exit 100%

KasePO KaseCD


92

Divergence - Exit 80% EURUSD Currency Jul/Aug 2010 KCD Divergence = Exit 80% Pull Stops to Dev1

Dev1 Hit Exit 20%

KaseCD


93

Late PeakOut – Exit 80% GOOG Sep 2009

Late PeakOut Exit 80% Pull Stops to Dev1

Dev1 Hit Exit 20%

KasePO


94

Early/Late PO and Divergence – Scale Out GBPUSD Feb/Mar 2010 Dev1 Hit Exit 33% Late PeakOut and Divergence Exit 80% Pull Stops to Dev1

Early PeakOut Pull Stops to Exit One-Third At Dev1, 2 and 3 Equally

Dev1 Hit, Exit 20%

KasePO KaseCD


95

KCDpeak – Exit 50% SPX Index Oct/Nov 2009

KCDpeak Exit 50% Pull Stops to Dev1

Dev1 Hit, Exit 50%

KaseCD


96

KaseCD, KasePO without Candlesticks Overview, LCM10 Feb/Jun 2010

KasePO

KaseCD


97

KaseCD, KasePO with Candlesticks LCM10 Feb/Mar 2010

KasePO

KaseCD


98

KaseCD, KasePO with Candlesticks LCM10 Mar/May 2010

KasePO

KaseCD


99

KaseCD, KasePO with Candlesticks LCM10 May/Jun 2010

KasePO

KaseCD


100

Comparison Table on Performance Small and Large Turns

Indicator Combination Small Turn % Large Turn % RSI and Stochastic 50 46 MACD and Stochastic 50 47 MACD and RSI 54 50 MACD, RSI and Stochastic 59 55 KasePO and KaseCD 80 82 Small Turn Addition Stochastic Kase

Points 4 21

Percent 7 40

Large Turn Addition Stochastic Kase

Points 5 27

Percent 8 50


101

Kase StatWare™ Trade and Portfolio Management Examples


Trade Example (1) - Entry CLN10 60-min, June 4, 2010

1st Sell

2nd Sell 6/4/10 - 0900 72.06


103

Trade Example (1) - Exit CLN10 60-min, June 4, 2010 Inactivity and Warning Line Hit Exit 20% 6/7/10 – 2300 70.45

Entry 6/4/10 - 0900 72.06

PeakOut Exit 80% - Stop Dev1 6/6/10 – 1800 69.85

KasePO


104

Trade Example (2) - Entry NGN10 60-min, June 6, 2010

1st Sell

2nd Sell 6/6/10 – 1800 4.818


105

Trade Example (2) - Exit NGN10 60-min, June 6, 2010 Entry 6/6/10 – 1800 4.818

KCD Divergence and Dev1 Hit Exit 100% 6/7/10 – 0700 4.783

KaseCD


106

Trade Example (3) – Entry/Exit CVX Daily Jul/Aug 2010

PeakOut Exit 80% 8/11/10 77.13

Dev1 Hit Exit 20% 8/12/10 76.83

1st Buy

2nd Buy 7/19/2010 72.0

KasePO


107

Trade Example (4) – Entry/Exit USO Daily Dec 2009/Jan 2010 KPO PeakOut Exit 80% 1/7/10 40.54

1st Buy

2nd Buy 12/23/09 37.74

Midpoint of Harami Line and Star Hit Exit 20% 1/9/10 40.23

KasePO


108

Trade Example (5) – Entry/Exit MSFT Daily Aug/Sep 2010 1st Sell

2nd Sell 8/10/10 25.07 KCD Divergence Exit 80% 9/1/10 23.90

Dev1 Hit Exit 20% 9/3/10 24.21

KaseCD


109

Kase StatWare Long Only – Scale In/Out SPX Index Daily

Reduce Position to 80% Reduce Position to 60% Reduce Position to 40%

KasePO KaseCD


110

Kase StatWare Long Only – Scale In/Out SPX Index Daily KCD Divergence Add Back 20% for 60%

PeakOut, Scale Out Stops , Not Hit, Remain at 100% Dev1 Hit, Plus L Add Back 20%

Second Long, 100%

KasePO KaseCD


111

Kase StatWare – Long Only CSCO Weekly First Sell No Danger

Sells, Reduce by 20% At Each to 20% Total

First Sell No Danger Second Sell Exit 20% 40% Total

First Sell No Danger

PO, Stop Scale Out Not Hit Add 20% for 100% Total

Up to 60% Up to 100% Up to 70%

Long 20% at each L Up to 70%

Long 20% at each L for 80% Total

Long 20% KasePO

KaseCD


112

Kase StatWare – Long Only CSCO Weekly

PeakOut and Divergence Stop at Dev1

Exit 20% Reduce to 80%

Dev1 Hit, Exit 80% KasePO

KaseCD


113

Kase Forecasting Methods


Five-Wave Labeling Wheat July 06

X 326.5 " 332


Y 339.5 351 "

Z 332 341 "

351

369

I, P2

3X, XC E, P2 L, P2

115

Three-Wave Labeling Wheat July 06

X 326.5 " 332


Y 339.5 351 "

Z 332 341 "

351

369

I, P2

3X, XC E, P2 L, P2

116

Five-Wave Labeling Wheat July 06

X Y Z 400 433 325.5 365.5 341.5 I, P2 " 400 351 E, P1 341.5 " " I, P1 351 382 " XC, P2 Copyright Kase and Company, Inc. All rights reserved 2010

117

Three-Wave Labeling Wheat July 06

X Y Z 400 433 325.5 365.5 341.5 I, P2 " 400 351 E, P1 I, P1 341.5 " " 351 382 " XC, P2


118

Evaluating Prices Using Kase Grids and Kase Cascades Forecasting Grid X x1 x2 x3

Y y1 y2 y3

Z z1 z2 z3

S E I L Target 1 Target 2 Target 3 Target 3 Target 3

Cascades • Diagonal • Down Column • Across Row Copyright Kase and Company, Inc. All rights reserved 2010

3X

Y y1 y2 y3

P1 Target 4

P2

P3

Target 4 Target 3

X x1 x2 x3

XC

Target 1

Target 4

Z Target 1 Target 2 Target 3 Target 4 z1 S E I P1 z2 E L P2 z3 P1 3X P3

• Impulsive • Corrective • Mixed 119

Across Row Impulse Cascade EURUSD Daily

X 1.1876


Y 1.2467

Z 1.2151

S 1.252

E 1.274

I 1.297

X 1.1876

Y 1.2467

Z 1.2151

L 1.311 1.300 I

3X 1.374 1.333 L

XC 1.378 1.375 3X, XC

120

NGU04 Mixed Across the Row Cascade X 6.70

Y 6.06

Z 6.50

S 6.10

E 5.86

I 5.62 X 6.70


L 5.46 Y 6.06

3X 4.96 Z 6.50

XC 4.73 5.80 E, P2

P1 5.79 5.42 L

121

CN07 Mixed Down Column Cascade X 248 352.5

Y 393.5 420.5

Z 352.5 391.5

S 442 434

E 498 460

I 554 485

L 588 502

3X 991 598

X 248 352.5


XC 755 579

Y 393.5 420.5

P1 419 438

Z 352.5 391.5

437.25 S S, P1

122

Simple Forecasting without Wave Counts NGZ04 Diagonal Kase Cascade Forecast 7/25/03 X 3.365 " "

Y 4.437 4.53 5.554

Z 3.98 4.37 4.88

S 4.64 5.09 6.23

E 5.05 5.54 7.07

I 5.46 5.98 7.91

X 3.365 " " Copyright Kase and Company, Inc. All rights reserved 2010

L 5.71 6.25 8.42

Y 4.437 4.53 5.554

Z 3.98 4.37 4.88

5.05 E S

5.55 I E

6.23

7.07

L S

E

123

NGZ04 Kase Cascade Forecast Outcome 5/28/04 Within 0.56%

Within 0.96%


124

NGX08 Daily Proportions from $13.998 X Y Z S 13.998 12.454 13.11 12.16 " 10.94 11.255 9.37 11.255 9.30 9.969 8.76


E 11.57 8.20 8.01

I 10.98 7.03 7.27

L 10.61 6.31 6.81

3X 9.86 6.68 6.35

XC 8.84 2.80 4.57

P1 12.05 10.75 8.89

P2 11.39 10.43 8.22

125

NGX08 Daily Proportions from $9.969 X 9.969 " " 9.504 "


Y 9.274 8.88 8.50 " 8.276

Z 9.925 9.504 9.15 " 8.848

S 9.50 8.83 8.24 8.53 8.09

E 9.23 8.42 7.68 8.15 7.62

L 8.80 7.74 6.77 7.53 6.86

3X 8.03 7.05 6.18 6.80 6.28

XC 8.00 6.49 5.09 6.37 5.45

P1 8.87 8.49 8.10 8.10 7.92

P2 8.22 7.87 7.45 7.45 7.35

126

NGX08 Daily, Labeling From $13.988 X Y Z 10.94 9.3 13.998 12.454 13.11 I " 10.94 11.225 S, P1 " 9.30 9.969 9.969 8.88 9.504 9.15 8.276 8.848

8.5

8.142

E, P1

0.38 I 0.81

A’=C’(P1) = E’(P1)

E’ actually 1.25 Copyright Kase and Company, Inc. All rights reserved 2010

127

NGX08 Daily, Labeling From $13.988 Alternate


X Y Z 10.94 8.5 8.142 13.998 12.454 13.11 I " 10.94 11.225 E 11.255 9.3 9.969 0.89, P2 9.969 8.88 9.504 E, P1 " 8.5 9.15 0.69

128

Early Waves, Grid and Cascades X 13.998 " 11.255 " " " 9.969 " 9.504 "

Y Z 10.94 11.255 9.30 9.969 10.15 10.319 9.30 9.969 8.142 9.20 8.122 8.713 8.88 9.504 8.122 8.713 8.142 9.20 8.122 8.713

Retracements to $13.998 From: 78% 89%

S 9.37 7.07 9.64 8.76 7.28 6.78 8.83 7.57 8.36 7.86

E 8.20 5.27 9.21 8.01 6.09 5.58 8.42 6.87 7.84 7.33

I 7.03 3.48 8.79 7.27 4.90 4.38 8.00 6.16 7.32 6.80

9.30 = S, P1 8.142 = E 8.142 = 0.38

5.242 7.17 6.21


8.142 = 0.89, P2

8.50 = E, P1

L 6.31 2.37 8.53 6.81 4.16 3.64 7.74 5.72 7.00 6.48

X 13.998 " 11.255 " " " 9.969 9.504 "

3X 6.68 4.11 8.25 6.35 4.26 4.23 7.05 5.39 5.98 5.93

Y 10.94 9.30 10.15 9.30 8.142 8.122 8.88 8.142 8.122

XC 2.80 -3.02 7.26 4.57 0.60 0.05 6.49 3.61 5.44 4.89

Z 11.255 9.969 10.319 9.969 9.20 8.713 9.504 9.20 8.713

P2 10.43 8.22 9.88 8.22 6.43 7.17 7.87 7.17 6.43 7.17

P3 9.92 7.14 9.60 7.14 4.72 6.21 6.86 6.21 4.72 6.21

7.32

7.04 I S

XC I S

I E

7.14 P3 P3

3X L

6.82

L S P3 I

129

Intraday Labels, Grid and Cascade X Y Z 9.969 8.122 8.713 9.20 " " 9.144 " " 8.88 " " 9.20 8.792 9.144

7.62 7.32 7.17 7.04 6.82 S E I, P2 E I P2 L I P2 3X P3

(8.792) 2 = 77.3 77.3/9.20 = 8.40 Off by 0.03%

X 9.20 " 9.144 8.88

Y 8.792 8.122 " "

Z 9.144 8.713 " "

DevStops

S 8.89 8.05 8.08 8.24

E 8.74 7.64 7.69 7.96

NG Long Daily - X Weekly - X


I 8.58 7.22 7.30 7.67

Warn 7.88

L 8.48 6.97 7.06 7.49

3X 8.03 6.33 6.41 6.79

Dev1 7.35

XC 8.02 5.73 5.89 6.62

Dev2 7.93 6.65

P2 8.22 7.17 7.17 7.17

P3 7.65 6.21 6.21 6.21

Dev3 Dev4.5 Dev6 7.80 7.48 7.17 5.80 5.26 4.35 130

NGX08: Forecast Outcome October 7, 2008


131

NGN10 Waves Up from $3.971 Kase Commentary June 4-18, 2010 “$5.196 probably going to hold”

X 3.971 4.036


Y 4.587 5.071

Z 4.036 4.628

5.07 L

5.20 S

132

NGX10 Waves Down from $6.964 Kase Commentary Oct 1, 2010 “Headed towards $3.58” Wave A or I C or III C' or 3


X 6.964 6.548 5.15

Y 5.61 4.647 3.971

Z 6.548 5.534 4.298

3.58 3X E S

133

Market Outcome, NGX10 Kase Commentary Oct 8, 2010 Wave A or I C or III C' or 3


X 6.964 6.548 5.15

Y 5.61 4.647 3.971

Z 6.548 5.534 4.298

3.58 3X E S

134

CLX10 Waves Up from $70.96 Kase Commentary Oct 1, 2010

Wave X Y Z A 70.96 83.91 71.49


79.5 S

84.4 E

135

CLX10 Waves Up from $73.58 Kase Commentary Oct 1, 2010

Wave X Y Z 84.4 a 75.52 79.47 78.39 I 80.45 81.52 80.99 3X, XC

Showed $84.4 probable


136

Perpetual and CLX10 Retracements Kase Commentary Oct 1, 2010 CLX10 Retracements to $70.96 From: 85.7 93.14 62% 84.7 89% 84.1 90.7


Perpetual Retracements to $64.24 From: 87.15 89% 84.6

137

Market Outcome, CLX10 Kase Commentary Oct 8, 2010

Wave X Y Z A 70.96 83.91 71.49


84.4 E

138

Outlook for Natural Gas, Crude Oil, S&P 500, Gold and EURUSD


StatWare™ for Bloomberg Free Fully Functional Trial One Month Trial Enable Trial, Download Manual Signup for Lessons and Watch Training Videos at KASE

Weekly Forecasts on Crude Oil and Natural Gas Enable Free Four Issue Trial and Get Sample Forecasts at FKST

KASE FKST www.kaseco.com www.kasestatware.com Copyright Kase and Company, Inc. All rights reserved 2010

Kase and Company, Inc. CTA 223 N Guadalupe St. PMB 540 Santa Fe, NM 87501 (505) 237 - 1600 (Call Center) (866) 526 - 2350 (Fax)

140

Standard Disclaimer The risk in trading and hedging commodities, commodity futures, commodity options, derivative instruments and any other financial instrument can be substantial. Both traders and hedgers can be subject to mark-to-market losses and the resultant calls for additional margin deposits, could potentially exceed the original deposit. Anyone contemplating the use of commodities, commodity futures, commodity options, derivative instruments and any other financial instrument for either speculative or hedging transactions should therefore carefully consider whether such activity is suitable based upon commercial requirement and the financial condition of the person or organization so engaged. Information contained herein or otherwise transmitted by Kase is not to be considered as an offer or advice to sell or a solicitation or advice to buy commodities, commodity futures, commodity options, derivative instruments and any other financial instrument. Kase and Company, Inc. (Kase) makes no guarantees, either express or implied, regarding the application of either its software, or comments, either written or oral. In no way is any information transmitted by Kase including but not limited to publications, class materials, any oral comments by Kase, its employees or sub contractors, any of Kase’s text or software products, or any other communication by Kase, its employees or sub contractors, directly or indirectly, in person or via media to be construed as Kase’s providing advice, either directly or indirectly, as to the advisability of buying or selling futures contracts, any physical commodity, commodity options or any other financial instrument. Kase will not be responsible for any errors or omissions, typographical or otherwise. Expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading or hedging. Also, since the trades or hedges have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, or certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading and hedging programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown, discussed or transmitted in any way by Kase. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING AND HEDGING COMMODITIES CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. The Client should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading or hedging is suitable for the Client in light of the Client’s financial condition. Information provided through any Kase service is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy commodities, nor does Kase make any guarantees. Expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice.


141

Kase_sem

Recommend Documents