DEMONETIZATION @ INNOVATIONS IN CASHLESS RASHMI RANJAN PANIGRAHI 1 1 January, 2017 Paper type: Empirical Paper ABSTRACT
Demonetization is the act of stripping a currency unit of its status as legal tender. Demonetization is necessary whenever there is a change of national currency. The old unit of currency must be retired and replaced with a new currency unit.The idea of demonetization is good but it has to be taken into consideration that most of the black money is kept in the form of land, buildings or gold or kept abroad. What is in cash constitutes only 4% of the total amount of black money on which taxes are not being paid. Out of this, a lot of money is in circulation in everyday transaction like if someone is building a house; the bill is not paid through banks for sand, bricks etc. Demonetization is an established practice in monetary policy to tackle black money. The Prime Minister has explained why this is a financial surgical strike. It was meant to be suddenly implemented. In the past, demonetization has taken place twice but it fails because the idea is to tackle the black money existing in circulation. This is not tackle corruption per se or the Government is not saying that 100% corruption will be tackled. On the evening of 8th November 2016, the Prime Minister of India announced one of the boldest moves in the history of India’s socioeconomic scene – demonetization of old Rs. 500 notes and Rs. 1000. Soon after, new notes of Rs. 500 and Rs. 2000 notes were pumped into the economy. it was counted for 86% of the money supply by value that had to cycle through the banks, either to be exchanged in limited numbers for the new Rs 500 and Rs 2,000 notes or to be deposited into banks. In these process credit guarantees limit for small scale industry was extended loan of up to Rs 2 crore, even it is given by NBFC, for MSME, small businesses. It helps the government to fix interest rate to 8% on deposits up to rs 7.5 lakh by senior citizens. Objective of this paper -: It such a topic based on recent high volt issues on impact of demonetization on money supply. This paper based on analyzing the three fold objectives, first objective is to understand the concept of Demonetize & To Study its objective economic development, second objective is to understand the causes and the steps taken by government on the major Demonetizes that took place in India and last one is to check the innovations of cashless transaction.
Research design and Methodology: This is a theoretical review article and the analysis is based on secondary data was collected from various published sources like reports, magazines, journals, newspapers and different research articles. From this source data collected on Demonetization @ Currency and suggestions is to be made to assume its biggest impact on economic. It promotes digital platforms for money transactions. Key Words: Demonetization. Black Money, Cashless, Economy, E Wallets, UPI, Plastic Money, Net Banking, Aadhaar Card Mr. Rashmi Ranjan Panigrahi , Asst. Prof in Finance, Dept- MBA/ BBA, MCOM / MBA-Education, Raajdhani Engineering College (REC), Bhubaneswar, Odisha-751017 Contact Details: 9778789570,
[email protected]
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1. INTRODUCTION Demonetization refers to Withdrawal of a particular form of currency from circulation. Demonetization is necessary whenever there is a change of national currency. The old unit of currency must be removed and substituted with a new currency unit. The currency was demonetized first time in 1946 and second time in 1978. On Nov. 2016 the currency is demonetized third time by the present Modi government The government has implemented a major change in the economic environment by demonetizing the high value currency notes – of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 denomination. These ceased to be legal tender from the midnight of 8th of November 2016. People have been given upto December 30, 2016 to exchange the notes held by them.1 The proposal by the government involves the elimination of these existing notes from circulation and a gradual replacement with a new set of notes. In the short term, it is intended that the cash in circulation would be substantially squeezed since there are limits placed on the amount that individuals can withdraw. In the months to come, this squeeze may be relaxed somewhat. The reasons offered for demonetization are two-fold: one, to control counterfeit notes that could be contributing to terrorism, in other words a national security concern and second, to undermine or eliminate the “black economy”. Demonetize means a fall in the value of domestic currency in terms of foreign currency/currencies. For example, suppose the exchange rate between rupee and dollar is Rs 50= 1 $. If this exchange rate is fixed at Rs. 55= 1$ then it is called demonetize/ devaluation of rupee. Earlier Rs.25 could purchase a dollar and now more rupees (rs.30) are required to get a dollar. So the value of rupee in terms of dollar has declined. The incidence of fake Indian currency notes in higher denomination has increased. For ordinary persons, the fake notes look similar to genuine notes, even though no security feature has been copied. The fake notes are used for antinational and illegal activities. High denomination notes have been misused by terrorists and for hoarding black money. India remains a cash based economy hence the circulation of Fake Indian Currency Notes continues to be a menace. In order to contain the rising incidence of fake notes and black money, the scheme to withdraw has been introduced.
Facts about the demonetized currencies. The note of Rs.500 was introduced in October 1987-88 while notes of Rs.1,000 were discontinued in January 1978 and reissued in November 2000. The history of Rs.1,000 note is interesting. It was first introduced in 1938 under the British rule and then demonetized in January 1946. Once again it was introduced in 1954 and demonetized in 1978 to be re-introduced in 2000. The total currency in circulation as on end March 31, 2016 is Rs. 16,415 billion of which notes of Rs.1,000 denomination account for 38.6 % (Rs.6,326 billion) and Rs.500 account for 47.8% (Rs.7,854 billion). The importance of Rs.500 has been increasing over the years, from 4.1% on March 31, 1990 to 47.2% on March 31, 2016. Similarly, the share of Rs.1,000 note has increased from 1.7% in 2001 to 38% in 2016. The total amount of Rs. 500 and Rs. 1,000 notes amount to Rs. 14,180 billion as compared with India’s national Income of Rs.1,35,761 billion in 2015-16 or about 10.5 percent of GDP. Assuming that the size of unaccounted economy in India, conservatively, is nearly 30% of the official economy, amount of Rs.4254 billion in high denomination notes could be due to unaccounted money.
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OBJECTIVE OF THIS PAPER
This paper based on objectives towards positive side of demonetization and impact of technological advancement of paperless transaction in the form of money supply. 1. To understand the concept of Demonetize.& its objective towards economic development 2. To understand the causes and the steps taken by government on the major Demonetizes that took place in India. 3. To check the innovations in cashless transaction.
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2.1 CONCEPT OF DEMONETIZATION: Demonetization is the legal act of rendering existing currency notes invalid, and replacing them by new currency notes of same or different denominations. it is a shock therapy intended to destroy accumulated illegal cash(which is not legal wealth) and restore the faith of honest taxpaying citizenry. India has witnessed demonetization in 1946, 1978 and now in 2016. but given the 132 crores+ population of India now, and massive scale of the cash economy, it is glaringly apparent that the ATM refilling operations were simply ill-planned, ill-execute and grossly mismanaged. the real danger is not this- it will be when crores of fresh white economy entrants- paying taxes out of hard earned revenues and incomes- will start demanding good quality government services from all the departments and ministries, central and state. Recently Indian government has demonetized the high value currencies i.e currency notes of 500 and 1000 with objective to unearth the black money, and to curb the corruption, counterfeit currency as well as terror financing. This decision was considered as biggest cleanliness drive against the black money in the history of Indian economy. But there is various view of experts on demonetisation, as some argues that it will will hit the black money and other argued in negative –
2.2 HISTORY OF DEMONETIZATION IN INDIA: 1. First Round: It happened on January 12, 1946- for rs 1000 notes- done by the high denominations bank notes(demonetization) ordinance, to destroy illegal wealth accumulated during second world war. 2. Second Round: It was done on January 16, 1978- for all notes above rs. 100 i.e. rs. 1000, rs. 5000 and rs. 10000 notes- done by the high denominations bank notes(demonetization) act, 1978 by janta party government to destroy black money of smugglers and mafia(rs. 1000 notes were brought back in 2000-01). 3. Third Round: This was carried out on late evening November 08, 2016- for rs. 500 and rs. 1000 notes done through a TV announcement by Pm Modi to break the backbone of corruption, illegal election funding, terror financing etc.
2.3 GOVERNMENT HAS TAKEN SEVERAL MEASURES, BY WAY OF POLICY INITIATIVES AND ENFORCEMENT ACTION, TO CURB BLACK MONEY. According to Minister of State for Finance SantoshKumar Gangwar, a sectoral analysis of the admission of undisclosed income during searches conducted by the Income Tax Department in FY16, revealed that the main sectors that is generating black money are -- manufacturing (31%), real estate (29%), trading (8%), educational institutions (7%), contractors (6%), services (5%), gems & jewellery (4%). Gangwar was responding to a question on 22 November 2016 asked in the Rajya Sabha. The government has announced several measures since it took office in New Delhi, to clamp down on black money, both, within the country and outside it. Constitution of the Special Investigation Team (SIT) on Black Money under Chairmanship and ViceChairmanship of two former Judges of Hon’ble Supreme Court. Enactment of ‘The Black Money (Undisclosed Foreign Income and Assets) and Imposition of Tax Act, 2015’ to specifically deal with the issue of black money stashed away abroad. The Act inter alia provides stringent provisions for concealment penalties (equal to three times the amount of tax payable) and contains stringent provision for prosecution. Constitution of Multi-Agency Group (MAG) consisting of officers of Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT), Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Enforcement Directorate (ED) and Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) for investigation of recent revelations in Panama paper leaks. Proactively engaging with foreign governments with a view to facilitate and enhance the exchange of information under Double Taxation Avoidance Agreements (DTAAs)/Tax Information Exchange Agreements (TIEAs)/ Multilateral Conventions
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Joining the Multilateral Competent Authority Agreement in respect of Automatic Exchange of Information (AEOI) and having information sharing arrangement with USA under its Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA). Renegotiation of DTAAs with other countries to bring the Article on Exchange of Information to International Standards and expanding India’s treaty network by signing new DTAAs and TIEAs with many jurisdictions to facilitate the exchange of information and to bring Enabling attachment and confiscation of property equivalent in value held within the country where the property/proceeds of crime is taken or held outside the country by amending the Prevention of Money Laundering Act, 2002 through the Finance Act, 2015. Enactment of the Benami Transactions (Prohibition) Amendment Act, 2016 to amend the Benami Transactions (Prohibition) Act, 1988 with a view to, inter alia, enable confiscation of Benami property and provide for prosecution. The provisions of the amended Prohibition of Benami Property Transaction Act, 1988 have come into effect from 01.11.2016. Initiation of the information technology based ‘Project Insight’ by the Income Tax Department for strengthening the non-intrusive information driven approach for improving tax compliance and effective utilization of available information. Withdrawal of Rs.500 and Rs.1000 denominations of Bank Notes of the existing series issued by Reserve Bank of India vide Notification No.2652 [S.O.3407(E)] dated 08.11.2016. Amendment of Rule 114B of the Income-tax Rules to mandate quoting of PAN, for transactions of sale or purchase of goods or services of any nature above Rs.2 Lakh..
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IMPACTS OF DEMONETISATION
Demonetization is a generations’ memorable experience and is going to be one of the economic events of our time. Its impact is felt by every Indian citizen. Demonetization affects the economy through the liquidity side. Its effect will be a telling one because nearly 86% of currency value in circulation was withdrawn without replacing bulk of it. As a result of the withdrawal of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes, there occurred huge gap in the currency composition as after Rs 100; Rs 2000 is the only denomination. Absence of intermediate denominations like Rs 500 and Rs 1000 will reduce the utility of Rs 2000. Effectively, this will make Rs 2000 less useful as a transaction currency though it can be a store value denomination. Demonetization technically is a liquidity shock; a sudden stop in terms of currency availability. It creates a situation where lack of currencies jams consumption, investment, production, employment etc. In this context, the exercise may produce following short term/long term/, consumption/investment, welfare/growth impacts on Indian economy. The intensity of demonetization effects clearly depends upon the duration of the liquidity shocks. Following are the main impacts. 1. Demonetization is not a big disaster like global banking sector crisis of 2007; but at the same time, it will act as a liquidity shock that disturbs economic activities. 2. Black Money and Corruption By demonetization, Black money will be taken out of Indian system. As predicted by ICICI Securities Primary Dealership the government's plan to remove INR 500 and INR 1,000 notes from circulation will disclose up to INR 4.6 lakh crore in black money. Corruption will also be automatically reduced by removing black money from economy. Notes in circulation ( value in INR billion) 7854 6326 14180 Notes with banks together with other govt. agencies@ 30% 2356 1898 4254 Notes with public @70% 5498 4428 9926 Conversion by public for new notes with old (%) 60 40 Total value of converted by public (INR billion) 3299 1771 5070
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Scenario 1: Total value not converted by public @50%(INR 2199 2657 4856 billion) Scenario 2: Total value not covered by public @50% of 4520 20% of black money(INR billion) Scenario 3: Replicating 1978, with 25% not coming back 1374 1107 2482 Source: SBI Research, RBI The table depicts the public holding of high denomination notes worth Rs. 9926 billion as on march 2016. There are 3 scenario in table. In scenario 1 and 2 it is assumed that 50% of the notes of higher denomination do not return to the system. It is also reasonable to expect that 60% of Rs. 500 notes and 40% of Rs. 1000 notes would be exchanged at banks/ post offices and RBI before march 31,2017. Based on such estimates, roughly round Rs. 4.5 lakh crore of money could disappear from the system. 3. Liquidity crunch (short term effect): liquidity shock means people are not able to get sufficient volume of popular denomination especially Rs 500. This currency unit is the favourable denomination in daily life. It constituted to nearly 49% of the previous currency supply in terms of value. Higher the time required to resupply Rs 500 notes, higher will be the duration of the liquidity crunch. Current reports indicate that all security printing press can print only 2000 million units of RS 500 notes by the end of this year. Nearly 16000 mn Rs 500 notes were in circulation as on end March 2016. Some portion of this were filled by the new Rs 2000 notes. Towards end of March approximately 10000 mn units will be printed and replaced. All these indicate that currency crunch will be in our economy for the next four months. 4. Welfare loss for the currency using population: Most active segments of the population who constitute the ‘base of the pyramid’ uses currency to meet their transactions. The daily wage earners, other labourers, small traders etc. who reside out of the formal economy uses cash frequently. These sections will lose income in the absence of liquid cash. Cash stringency will compel firms to reduce labour cost and thus reduces income to the poor working class.There will be a trickle up effect of the liquidity chaos to the higher income people with time. 5. Consumption will be hit: When liquidity shortage strikes, it is consumption that is going to be adversely affected first. Consumption ↓→ Production ↓→ Employment ↓→ Growth ↓→ Tax revenue ↓ 6. Loss of Growth momentum- India risks its position of being the fastest growing largest economy: reduced consumption, income, investment etc. may reduce India’s GDP growth as the liquidity impact itself may last three -four months. 7. Impact on bank deposits and interest rate: Deposit in the short term may rise, but in the long term, its effect will come down. The savings with the banks are actually liquid cash people stored. It is difficult to assume that such ready cash once stored in their hands will be put into savings for a long term. They saved this money into banks just to convert the old notes into new notes. These are not voluntary savings aimed to get interest. It will be converted into active liquidity by the savers when full-fledged new currency supply take place. This means that new savings with banks is only transitory or short-term deposit. It may be encashed by the savers at the appropriate time. It is not necessary that demonetization will produce big savings in the banking system in the medium term. Most of the savings are obtained by biggie public sector banks like the SBI. They may reduce interest rate in the short/medium term. But they can't follow it in the long term. 8. Impact on black money: Only a small portion of black money is actually stored in the form of cash. Usually, black income is kept in the form of physical assets like gold, land, buildings etc. Hence the amount of black money countered by demonetization depend upon the amount of black money held in the form of cash and it will be smaller than expected. But more than anything else, demonetization has a big propaganda effect. People are now much convinced about the need to fight black income. such a nationwide awareness and urge will encourage government to come out with even strong measures.
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9. Impact on counterfeit currency: the real impact will be on counterfeit/fake currency as its circulation will be checked after this exercise. Demonetization as a cleaning exercise may produce several good things in the economy. At the same time, it creates unavoidable income and welfare losses to the poor sections of the society who gets income based on their daily work and those who doesn’t have the digital transaction culture. Overall economic activies will be dampened in the short term. But the unmeasurable benefits of having more transparency and reduced volume of black money activities can be pointed as long term benefits.
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DEMONETIZATION- A CASHLESS ECONOMY India continues to be driven by the use of cash; less than 5% of all payments happen electronically however the finance minister, in 2016 budget speech, talked about the idea of making India a cashless society, with the aim of curbing the flow of black money. Even the RBI has also recently unveiled unveiled a document — “Payments and Settlement Systems in India: Vision 2018” — setting out a plan to encourage electronic payments and to enable India to move towards a cashless society or economy in the medium and long term.
People adopting online payments system such as Paytm etc. after ban for high denomination currency in India. Digital transaction systems, E -wallets and apps, online transactions using E banking, usage of Plastic money (Debit and Credit Cards), etc. will definitely see substantial increases in demand.This behavioural change could be a game changer for India in the near future. STEPS TAKEN BY RBI AND GOVERNMENT TO DISCOURAGE USE OF CASH
Licensing of Payment banks Government is also promoting mobile wallets. Mobile wallet allows users to instantly send money, pay bills, recharge mobiles, book movie tickets, send physical and e-gifts both online and offline. Recently, the RBI had issued certain guidelines that allow the users to increase their limit to Rs 1,00,000 based on a certain KYC verification Promotion of e-commerce by liberalizing the FDI norms for this sector. Government has also launched UPI which will make Electronic transaction much simpler and faster. Government has also withdrawn surcharge, service charge on cards and digital payments
3.1 INNOVATIVE APPROACHES
OF CASHLESS PAYMENT OPTIONS IN INDIA E Wallets – Paytm, Freecharge etc.. UPI – Unified payments Interface Apps Plastic Money – Debit/Credit Cards Net Banking – Online Fund Transfer Aadhaar Card – Aadhaar Enabled Payment System
1. E Wallets-: It become very famous nowadays. After demonetisation, use of e wallets has been implemented at a very large-scale. You might have seen those ‘chai walas’ and other road side vendors accepting Paytm. That is what exactly e wallets are all about. Paytm is an e wallet and there are many others available. These e wallets allow users to make payments using your mobile number or by scanning a QR code which takes place in a jiffy. All you need to do is simply download a wallet like paytm. Now add money to your e wallet. You can add money to you paytm wallet online using debit/credit card/net banking. Also there are physical recharge points available all over India where you can add money to your paytm e wallet. If you want to get free paytm cash , just click here to learn about to earning free paytm cash online. There are also many other electornic wallets available in app stores like google play. You can download any of
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them to make digital payments easily.They include jio money, vodafone mpesa & airtel money. Even banks have launched their own e wallet apps like State bank buddy and Yes Pay. 2. UPI-: It also known as Unified Payments Interface is another great way to go cashless.If you are confused about what unified payments interface is, here I will end it forever. Unified payments interface also called UPI is system of payments. Using unified payments interface, people can transact using their smartphones.To pay using this system called unified payments interface, you need 2 important things: Smartphone and a Bank Account. Recent Innovative app in UIP modified version is BHIM .Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi today (30th December, 2016) has launched an Aadhaar based mobile payment application called BHIM (Bharat Interface for Money) – a modified version of UPI (Unified Payment Interface) and USSD (Unstructured Supplementary Service Data), 3. Plastic Money : it means debit cards and credit cards that are used at ATM’s for cash withdrawal and POS machines while shopping. Having a debit or credit cards make you burden free from carrying cash. Also risk of theft goes down to zero as it needs a PIN carry out transactions. You don’t need to carry huge amount of cash with you. Just swipe and go. Debit card payments are made through bank account. Bank account gets debited while paying using debit card. But in case of a credit card, it is a monthly postpaid bill payment system that takes place. 4. Net Banking- It is another handy way to get cashless transactions done. All you need is a bank account with e banking facility enabled on it. You can transfer funds to others account from the comfort of your home. There is no need of going to your bank to get transfers done. You can make all payments and transfers yourself. This is a very convenient way to go cashless in India as well. 5. Aadhaar Card enabled payment system-: it is another way which allows a person to pay using his aadhaar card if it is linked to his bank account. Once you link your aadhaar card to your bank, you can make payments using your finger prints. STRATEGIES FOR TACKLING BLACK MONEY The distillation of various approaches can be summarized as under: 1. Establish identity of persons (through PAN Card, Aadhar Card etc.) operating in the country – citizens and foreigners. 2. Enable low the cost direct bank transfers (Implementation of NEFT/IMPS/RTGS and other formats) including direct transfers of subsidies to the beneficiaries under the Aadhar scheme. 3. Enable electronic register of assets (Underway through electronic land records, digitisation of revenue records) 4. Reform tax system so that cost of compliance is lower than cost of tax evasion. (through initiatives such as Saral forms, e-filing, self-declaration etc.) Indirect tax system through simplification (GST). 5. Widen the net for disclosure by filing Income Tax return. (auto-processing returns for tax refunds) 6. Regulations that increase costs for black money creating activities. (Prevention of Corruption Act etc.) 7. Create attribution chain for funds entering and exiting the country (such as through P-Notes, FDI, Prevention of Money Laundering Act etc.) 8. Create e-trails of both incomes and expenditure. 9. Control on holding of cash and physical money including Indian and foreign money. (FEMA, recent demonetization.
5 CONCLUSION The biggest beneficiary of this demonetization movement will be the FinTech start-ups, digital wallet, and other mobile payment companies. Consequent to the sensational ban put up on the prescribed bank notes, the Automated Teller Machine (ATM) kiosks have been breaking an all-time record in terms of public foot falls. The long que in the banks and outside the ATM kiosks have encouraged the public to switch to the payment platforms. Amidst the bank note chaos, the digital wallet companies have seen an unprecedented surge in the number of signups and people adding money in their wallets. E-wallets are leaving no stone unturned to maximise their customer base. 7
Service providers are waiving off fees for merchants and customers to get them on-board. It is a prodigious move and will increase the potential of the online market size multi-fold. It will boost innovation in the nascent electronic payment and electronic invoicing industry. The curbs introduced on the use of high value denomination notes, will accelerate the adoption of e- commerce websites and digital payment options such as wallets, credit and debit cards. Considering the macro picture, this whole move has laid the foundation for a golden era in the ecosystem of FinTech start-ups which will multiply the opportunities in India for developing electronic payment methods. Looking at the numbers and the pace at which the digital payment sector is progressing, FinTech start-ups will be considered the most sought after money churning avenue for the investors. In the FinTech space, transaction gateways and platforms, mobile banking and ATM and Point of Sale services are the emerging horizontals. Start-ups are more focused around payment processing and trading solutions. The demonetisation undertaken by the government is a large shock to the economy. The impact of the shock in the medium term is a function of how much of the currency will be replaced at the end of the replacement process and the extent to which currency in circulation is extinguished. While it has been argued that the cash that would be extinguished would be “black money” and hence, should be rightfully extinguished to set right the perverse incentive structure in the economy, this argument is based on impressions rather than on facts. While the facts are not available to anybody, it would be foolhardy to argue that this is the only possibility. In other words, while the cash was mediating in legitimate economic activity, if this currency is extinguished there would be a contraction of economic activity in the economy and that is a cost that needs to be factored in while assessing the impact of the demonetization on the economy and its agents.
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