Chronocrator-XL Tyme Cycles Analysis with Excel
DOCUMENTATION and MANUAL
Copyright © 2011 by Diego Ratti
All rights reserved (including those of translation in other languages). No part of this book may be reproduced in any form –by photo-printing, microfilm, or any other means - nor transmitted or translated into a machine language without written permission from the author.
2
Thank you for Purchasing Chronocrator-XL Chronocrator-XL has been designed to make the potential of Time Cycles Analyis accessible and affordable thanks to a easy to use familiar excel file. You can significantly speed up your Time Cycles and Astro Cycle Analysis learning process if you use this software for your tests and exercises while studying the theory of Time Cycles with available literature or with the author’s books “Wall Street Watchman” and “Astro Trading Handbook” offered separately for sale on www.astro-trading.net
3
Contents: 1-Preliminary Operations 2-Getting Started 3-Visual Manual 4-Working with your Charts 5-Software License 6-Disclaimer
5 6 7 19 28 30
4
Chapter 1- PRELIMINARY OPERATIONS: 1-Print one copy of the Software License Agreement, sign it and E-mail one signed copy to
[email protected] without this document on file you will have no access to our technical support 2-Read carefully this Manual (do not contact the technical support unless you have already read the Manual) before installing and opening the files “chronocrator.xls” and “chronocrator45.xls” 3-The file “chronocrator.xls” is used to perform time cycles analysis exclusively on the S&P500 index with historical data starting from 1900 thanks to our proprietary synthetic time series. The file chronocrator45.xls” is used to perform time cycles analysis on all other instruments whose historical data can be downloaded from Yahoo!Finance. Both files have the same features and commands and this manual can be read to learn how to use both.
5
Chapter 2 - GETTING STARTED: A-INSTALLATION: Once you have downloaded the chronocrator.xls (and chronocrator45.xls) file save it in one directory of your hard disk and open it with excel. B-ENABLE MACRO: quite often Excel security settings for Macro Protection are by default “high” or “very high”, if that is the case the VBA macros of chronocrator.xls will be blocked by Excel and will not work. If you are experiencing this kind of problem (you will immediately notice it because you will not be able to download data) you will need to reduce the level of Excel security settings for Macro Protection to “medium”: just go to the Security Level tab in the Security dialog box (Tools menu, Macro submenu) in Excel 2003 or to the Excel Trust Center in Excel 2007.
C-CONTROL PANEL: To perform your Astro cycles analysis on stocks, indexes or commodities with Chronocrator- XL first of all you need to learn how to use Chronocrator- XL Control Panel, all the instructions to use the Control can be found in >Chapter 3 Visual Manual > Worksheet n. 1- “Control Panel”
6
Chapter 3 - VISUAL MANUAL
7
Worksheet n. 1- “Analise” Excel Worksheet: this worksheet contains the main Control Panel of Chronocrator XL
Control panel From the control panel you can: A) choose a stock or index for your first chart (with Chronocrator XL you can download historical prices from Yahoo Finance ) if you do not already know the “Ticker Symbol” of the stock, index or ETF that you want to chart then you can easily look up all the other ticker symbols for data downloading online at
http://finance.yahoo.com/ Once you have found the “Tycker Symbol” (for example GOOG for Google, GLD for the Gold ETF, ^GSPC for the S&P500 index….) just type it in box n. 1 inside the green cell. B) Download the daily historical prices for the index or stock you want to analyze by simply clicking on the download button n. 2 Chronocrator-XL will download all the available historical daily data from Yahoo! Finance (for data downloading you must be connected to internet). As soon as the data have been downloaded, you will see below the Download Button two dates (n.3) : these are respectively the date of the earliest historical data downloaded and the date of the most recent one (usually Yahoo!Finance updates its time series every day late in the evening to include the last trading session) C) Now that you have all the available historical data from Yahoo!Finance for your Ticker Symbol you just need to chose how many historical data you want to include in your charts: to do that you need to adjust the parameters in Box n. 4 1-> Chose the Start date for your chart, it can be any date included in the available range (n.3) 2->Choose how many historical daily data you want to include in your chart: once you set this parameter you will automatically see the end date of your chart just below the N° of Days parameter of box Box n. 4. NOW YOU ARE READY TO STUDY YOUR CHARTS THAT YOU CAN FIND IN Worksheet CONTENTS WILL BE DESCRIBED IN THE NEXT SECTIONS OF THIS MANUAL.
8
n. 2-3-4-5-6 WHOSE
Worksheet n. 2- “Jup-Sat” Excel Worksheet: this worksheet contains your stock chart with the JupiterSaturn cycle Saturn – Jupiter Cycle: this is a 19.85 years long cycle and it was probably the most important cycle monitored by the ancients, recognizing its importance in marking radical changes in history the Greeks called it the Great Chronocrator (or the Master of Time). It is believed that W.D. Gann used extensively this cycle as his "Master Time Factor" for his famous long term stock market forecasts. With Chronocrator-XL you can analyze the Jupiter-Saturn cycle on your stocks charts in order to find correlations if any with turning points, tops, bottoms of your favorite stocks. On the right Y-axis with scale 0180°you will find the angular separation between Jupiter and Saturn measured in degrees on the Ecliptic. On the left y-axis you will find the price of the stock that you are charting. Below some examples of this cycle compared to different instruments such as the Gold ETF, the Agricultural Commodities ETF and the stock index S&P500.
Jupiter-Saturn cycle and DBA (Agricultural commodities ETF) years from 2007 to 2011. Chart created by Chronocrator XL
9
Jupiter-Saturn cycle and Google – (above) Jupiter-Saturn cycle and Gold ETF (GLD) (below)
10
Jupiter-Saturn cycle and S&P 500 years from 1987 to 1991. Chart created by Chronocrator XL
11
Worksheet n. 3- “Composite” Excel Worksheet: this worksheet contains your stock chart with a Composite cycle that you can build accordingly to your preferences and objectives. In the table n. 5 of the Control Panel you can select/deselect all Saturn cycles that you want to include/exclude in your composite cycle. In the example below all Saturn cycles are selected with the exception of the Venus-Saturn cycle : in this case the Composite Cycle Builder will create a composite cycle including the Saturn interplanetary synodic cycles with all the Planets but excluding Venus .
On the other hand you can decide to exclude all the Saturn interplanetary synodic cycles but one in order to display only the single cycle that you are interested about. In the example below only the Saturn Mars cycle has been selected and therefore this is the only cycle that will be displayed.
12
In the ecliptic coordinate system the interplanetary synodic period is the time that elapses between two successive oppositions of any two planets of the solar system relative to an observer on Earth: the ancient civilizations were very interested in these cycles and sometimes developed special calendric systems based on such cycles. In my "Astro Trading Handbook" I described how to used these cycles for timing the market trend changes. With Chronocrator-XL and its cycle builder you can analyze all the Saturn interplanetary synodic cycles one by one or in cumulative form choosing which ones to include in the composite or which one to exclude from the composite. Below some examples of composite cycles created with Chronocrator-XL and its cycle builder:
US 30 years T-Bond Yield and Composite Cycle
13
Google stock and Composite cycle
Dax Index and Composite cycle
14
DBA ETF and Mars-Saturn cycle selected with the Composite Cycle Builder
S&P500 index and Saturn-Uranus cycle selected with Composite Cycle Builder
15
Worksheet n. 4- “Sat-Geo” Excel Worksheet: this worksheet contains your stock chart with the Geocentric Ecliptic Longitude daily ephemeris data of Saturn: Saturn completes its orbit in 29.45 years. Every time this planet completes its orbit an important cycle ends: the ancients thought that these cycles marked key changes in the lives of individuals. With Chronocrator-XL you can analyze the Saturn cycle on your stocks charts in order to find correlations if any with turning points, tops, bottoms of your favorite stocks. On the right Y-axis with scale 0-360°you will find geocentric ecliptic longitude coordinates of Saturn. On the left y-axis you will find the price of the stock that you are charting. Below an examples of a segment of the 30 years long cycle of the Saturn compared to the stock GOOG.
Saturn Geocentric longitude and Google
16
Worksheet n. 5- “SatDec” Excel Worksheet: this worksheet contains your stock chart with the Heliocentric Equatorial Declination daily ephemeris data of Saturn: Saturn completes its orbit in 29.45 years. Every time this planet completes its orbit an important cycle ends: the ancients thought that these cycles marked key changes in the lives of individuals. With Chronocrator-XL you can analyze the Saturn cycle on your stocks charts in order to find correlations if any with turning points, tops, bottoms of your favorite stocks. On the right Y-axis (-25°to +25° scale) you will find the Heliocentric Equatorial Declination coordinates of Saturn measured in degrees. On the left y-axis you will find the price of the stock that you are charting.
A 30 year long chart of the S&P500 index from the 30s to the 60s to show the full cycle of Saturn Declination
17
A 30 year long chart of the DAX index to show the full cycle of Saturn Declination
18
WORKING WITH YOUR CHARTS A-Adjust the scale of your charts: Chronocrator-XL tries auto scale the astronomical indicators and the prices based on the maximum and minimum values in the price data but the variance between different sets of data (stocks, yields, indexes, currencies…) is so high that most of the times you will need to adjust the y axis scale of your chart shifting it up (or down) to get it closer to the current price action. This is easily done by “right clicking” with the mouse on the y-axis of the chart and opening a window like the one below and manually choose the Minimum and Maximum value for the Axis in the “Axis Options folder”.
19
20
07/22/05
07/15/05
07/08/05
07/01/05
06/24/05
06/17/05
06/10/05
06/03/05
05/27/05
05/20/05
05/13/05
05/06/05
04/29/05
04/22/05
04/15/05
04/08/05
04/01/05
03/25/05
03/18/05
03/11/05
03/04/05
02/25/05
02/18/05
02/11/05
02/04/05
01/28/05
01/21/05
01/14/05
01/07/05
12/31/04
12/24/04
12/17/04
12/10/04
12/03/04
11/26/04
11/19/04
07/22/05
07/15/05
07/08/05
07/01/05
06/24/05
06/17/05
06/10/05
06/03/05
05/27/05
05/20/05
05/13/05
05/06/05
04/29/05
04/22/05
04/15/05
04/08/05
04/01/05
03/25/05
03/18/05
03/11/05
03/04/05
02/25/05
02/18/05
02/11/05
02/04/05
01/28/05
01/21/05
01/14/05
01/07/05
12/31/04
12/24/04
12/17/04
12/10/04
12/03/04
11/26/04
11/19/04
47.00 122.00
46.00 120.00
45.00 118.00
44.00 116.00
43.00 114.00
42.00 112.00
41.00 110.00
40.00 108.00
Above an “Un-scaled” Y-axis and below the same chart after having manually rescaled the left Y-axis
50.00 124.00
45.00 122.00
40.00 120.00
35.00 118.00
30.00 116.00
25.00 114.00
20.00
112.00
15.00
110.00
10.00
108.00
5.00
106.00
-
104.00
When you “right click” with your mouse on a chart make sure not to mess with any of the options to change the data range, the type of chart, format and other similar stuff: these charts are very complex, they contain dozens of data series, functions, name ranges ....any unwanted alteration of the original code may result in the charts not working properly.
21
B-Work with your charts: Chronocrator-XL is not a technical analysis software and does not include some drawing tools that you may be familiar with and that are usually contained in technical analysis commercial charting software. Still you can use many drawing tools embedded in Excel to draw trendlines in your charts, highlight prices, takes notes or perform other technical works in your charts . The Drawing toolbar of Excel 2003 is not available in Excel 2007:
The Ribbon replaces the Drawing toolbar and other toolbars and menus in some 2007 Office release programs: it is designed to help you quickly find the commands that you need to complete a task. Commands are organized in logical groups under tabs, such as the Clipboard group on the Home tab. Each tab relates to a type of activity, such as writing or designing a page. To reduce clutter, some tabs appear only when needed. For example, the Drawing Tools tab appears only when you select a shape, line, or other drawing object (If you do not see the Drawing Tools tab, make sure that you selected a shape, line, or drawing object. You may have to double-click the object).
In 2007 Office release programs, to perform tasks that you used to perform from the Drawing toolbar (such as inserting a shape, drawing a line, and adding a picture, clip art, SmartArt graphic, or WordArt), you click an option in the Illustrations group, or Text group, on the Insert tab.
The Illustrations group as it appears in Microsoft Office PowerPoint 2007 and Microsoft Office Word 2007
After you insert a shape, line, picture, clip art, SmartArt graphic, or WordArt, additional tabs appear that contain formatting and effects previously found on the Drawing toolbar, and additional new features like Quick Styles.
22
23 07/22/05
07/15/05
07/08/05
07/01/05
06/24/05
06/17/05
06/10/05
45.00
06/03/05
05/27/05
05/20/05
05/13/05
05/06/05
04/29/05
04/22/05
04/15/05
04/08/05
04/01/05
03/25/05
03/18/05
03/11/05
03/04/05
02/25/05
02/18/05
02/11/05
02/04/05
01/28/05
01/21/05
01/14/05
01/07/05
12/31/04
12/24/04
12/17/04
12/10/04
12/03/04
11/26/04
11/19/04
47.00 800.00
TURN DATE IN CYCLE AND MINOR TOP IN PRICE
46.00 700.00
TURN DATE IN CYCLE AND MINOR TOP IN PRICE 600.00
500.00
44.00 400.00
43.00 300.00
42.00 200.00
41.00 100.00
40.00 0.00
Example of trendlines and graphic studies that can be performed on a charts thanks to Excel drawing tools
C-Saving your works: Once you have learnt to properly scale your charts and to place graphic studies or to write your notes on them you may want to save your work: remember that with Chronocrator-XL you can analyze one stock or index per time so when you switch to another symbol new data will be downloaded and new charts will be automatically drawn and your old work will disappear. If you want to save your work before switching to the analysis of another securities or another planet you have the following options: Saving your chart as a graphic file (as a picture): just click on the “Chart Area” click on Edit>Copy (CTRL A) and paste (CTRL V) your chart on any image viewer, in World, Pant, Power Point or in any other program of your preference then save it.
Click on the “Chart Area” click on Copy
Paste the copied chart on an image viewer (for example Microsoft Paint embedded in Windows)
Save the pasted chart in any image format
24
Print your chart on paper with your printer directly from Excel: File>PrintPreview>Print Print your chart on a PDF file with a VirtualPrinter directly from Excel: File>PrintPreview>Print (select your Virtual Printer for printing)
Print your chart on a XPS file directly from Excel: File>PrintPreview>Print (select “Microsoft XPS Document Writer” for printing)
Chart printed with “Microsoft XPS Document Writer” and open with Microsoft XPS Viewer
25
Chart printed with “Microsoft XPS Document Writer” : opened and zoomed with Microsoft XPS Viewer
26
If you want to save a copy of your Excel file by renaming it (for example saving it with a date “chronocratorxl-dec10-2010.xls for archiving purposes) you can do it but with 2 draw-downs: 1-You will occupy more space in your hard disk since a copy of chronocrator.xls occupies almost 40MB of space. 2-Once you reopen your renamed file you will find all your saved charts and data but the macro to download new data will not work because it is set to work only on a file named chronocrator.xls
27
Chronocrator-XL © License Agreement LICENSE AGREEMENT Diego Ratti (“Author”) hereby grants you a limited non-exclusive license to use the sofware Chronocrator-XL ("Software") and the accompanying documentation ("Documentation") in the manner described as follows: 1. LICENSE GRANT. The Author grants to you, and you accept, a non-exclusive license to use the Software and the accompanying Documentation, only as authorized in this agreement. You are not allowed to: A-To sell or transfer the Software or the Documentation B- To disassemble the Software or create derivative works based on the Software C-To reverse engineer the Software D-To circumvent the protection lock E-To publish or distribute charts produced with the Software F-Use the Software on more than one computer 2. COPYRIGHT. The Software and the Documentation are copyrighted and protected by the Italian and International copyright law. All rights are reserved. You are allowed to make one archival copy of the Software for back-up purposes. No part of the Documentation may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, for any purpose other than the purchaser's personal use without the written permission of the Author. You may not remove any copyright notices or labels on the Software or Documentation. 3. NO WARRANTY. The Software is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind. The Author does not warrant that the software will meet your requirements or that the operations of the software will be error-free. There are NO warranties, whether expressed or implied, including, but not limited to, any implied warranty of merchantability of fitness for a particular purpose. Should the program prove defective, you assume the total cost of repair and servicing and correction. The Author does not warrantee, guarantee or make any representation whatsoever, regarding the use of the software in terms of correctness, accuracy, reliability. You rely on the Software solely at your own risk. This disclaimer of warranty constitutes an essential part of the agreement. 4. LIMITATION OF LIABILITY. The user is advised to test the Software thoroughly before relying upon it. The user agrees to assume the entire risk of using the software. Regardless of whether any code fails its essential purpose, in no event shall the Author be liable for any indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages, or for any claim by any other party, or other damages, regardless of type, including, without limitation, damages for loss of profit or goodwill resulting from the use or inability to use this software. The Author total liability to you or any other party for any loss or damages resulting from any claims, demands or actions arising out of or related to this agreement shall not exceed the license fee paid to the Author for use of this software. The disclaimers and limitations set forth above will apply regardless of whether or not you continue to use the software. 5. NO ADVICE. The Software is intended only to be a computational aid and it designed and sold only as an educational tool. No trading or investment advice is implied or given. The methods described in the Documentation are for educational purposes only. The Author assumes no responsibility for your trading and investing decisions and results. Trading and investing involve a high degree of risk. No recommendation is being made to buy any stock, commodity, option or other financial instrument. The Author is not an investment advisor/professional: if you need such advice you will consult with your own professional investing advisors and you do not rely on the Author to supply or substitute such advice. In no event shall information and/or Service and/or function of any kind provided by the Software or Documentation, constituted as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from the Author that user will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. No such promises, guarantees or implications are given. 6. PAST RESULTS: past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Hypothetical, educational or simulated performance results have certain limitations. unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. the software user assumes all responsibly for the outcome of his/her investments. 7. DATA: historical prices and data contained in the Software are downloaded from the internet and provided by third parties "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. The Author is not liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained on such data. 8. TITLE. You acquire no right, title or interest in or to the Software. Title, ownership rights, and intellectual property rights in the Software shall remain in the Author. 9. TERMINATION. The license will terminate automatically if you fail to comply with the limitations described herein. On termination, you must destroy all your copies of the Software and Documentation. 10. NO WAIVER. The failure of either party to enforce any rights granted hereunder shall not be deemed a waiver by that party as to subsequent enforcement of rights in the event of future breaches. 11. MISCELLANEOUS. If any provision of this Agreement is held to be unenforceable, such provision shall be reformed only to the extent necessary to make it enforceable. 12. GOVERNING LAW. The license agreement shall be construed and governed in accordance with the laws of Italy. In any legal action regarding the subject matter hereof, you agree to have venue in the “Tribunale di Lecco” of Via Cornelio 2, 23900 LC, Lecco, Italy
28
SIGN ONE COPY OF THE SOFTWARE LICENCE AND EMAIL IT TO
[email protected]
29
DISCLAIMER: The methods described in this manual are for educational purposes only. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The author and the publisher assume no responsibility for your trading results. Trading involves a high degree of risk. No recommendation is being made to buy any stock, commodity, option or other financial instrument. Please do your own diligence. I am not responsible for your trading decisions, I am not an investment advisor/professional. This book is not intended to provide the readers with financial advice. You should talk to your own investment professionals for specific advice. The views and opinions expressed in this book are for the sole purpose of financial and general education and are not written by a certified financial advisor. The author of this book has done diligent research in the field of financial markets but does not carry any authority, credentials or certifications to give financial advice. Therefore, you are advised to consult a certified financial advisor with any questions you have regarding any information found in this book as well as any additional questions you may have in regards to managing your finances. Futures and options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this book. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Futures trading involves the potential for substantial risk of loss as well as substantial gains, and is not suitable for every investor. The highly leveraged nature of futures trading means that small market movements will have a great impact on your trading account and this can work against you, leading to large losses or can work for you, leading to large gains. If the market moves against you, you may sustain a total loss greater than the amount you deposited into your account. You are responsible for all the risks and financial resources you use and for the chosen trading system. You should not engage in trading unless you fully understand the nature of the transactions you are entering into and the extent of your exposure to loss. If you do not fully understand these risks you must seek independent advice from your financial advisor. All trading strategies are used at your own risk. It is your responsibility to confirm and decide which trades to make. Trade only with risk capital; that is, trade with money that, if lost, will not adversely impact your lifestyle and your ability to meet your financial obligations. HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN
30
