BALANCE METALURGICO PLANTA MESAPATA
BALANCE ACUMULADO CAMPAÑA CO11PM2009
DESDE: 22-09-09 HASTA: 01-10-09
TMH %H2O
ENSAES PRODUCTO CABE"A CONC. DE C( CONC. DE P! CONC. DE "# RELA+E
T.M.S.
%CU
1363.82
%P!
1,363.815 2.802
TON.
MINA: PROPIETARIO:
AREQUIPA AREQU IPA M CIA MINERA CAUDALOSA S.A.
CONTENIDOS METALICOS
%"#
O#$A&'
%CU
%P!
%"#
RECUPERACIONES
O#$ A&'
%CU
%P!
%"#
100.00
100.00
100.00
0. 0.93
0.73
19.10
5.32
6.96
9.89
6.82
72.55
94.92
2).*0
4.42
4.51
151.30
4.18
0.67
0.69
2541.00
88.64
0.95
64.62
3.84
9476.70
13.97
89.0)
1.52
0.70
2.32
85.02
258.70
10 10.21
3.20
89.5)
0.85
0.99
4.93
5.37
1025.35
14.47
6.80
5.66
7.71
13301.75
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
15.27
97.19
0.98
66.*9
3.95
154.72
0. 0 .45
1.50
5*.95
1096.63
0. 0 .09
0.45
0.49
1 48 4836.94 1 00 00.00
% A
0. 0 .50
61.35
4. 4.04
71.24
1.94
92.29 tablas ! l!"!s ! #!tal!s $a%abl!s s!%&' l()*(a+(,' 2009
(/ (' 4# (/ .. 4# 7TM /(/# #(7TM&#( vida util
85000
9000 9.44444444 10 a-,s
(a *t(l /
!s!a !s!a ! #('!al #('!al $,*++(, $,*++(,' ' a'*al a'*al
E/(# H' / AÑO 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
COBRE ORO tvs.US$/l US$/OzT US$/OzT
133.18
384.52
10 104.14
388.25
10 103.28
331.56
75 75.02
294.48
71 71.32
279.17
82 82.24
279.37
71 71.6
271.23
70 70.74
310.13
80 80.7
363.62
12 129.99
409.85
16 166.87
445.47
30 304.91
604.58
32 322.93
697.41
31 315.51
872.72
23 233.52
973.62
ORO US; / O#$
PLOMO US; / L!
*!'t!
P/ / P# M# !"#C %ATA %O&O ESTAÑO tvs.US$/l US$/OzT tvs.US$/l tvs.US$/lb
46.78
5.19
28.62
281.82
46.52
5.19
35.12
279.62
59.75
4.89
28.32
256.09
46.46
5.54
23.98
251.3
48.82
5.25
22.8
245.07
51.16
5
20.59
246.57
40.17
4.39
21.6
203.4
35.32
4.63
20.53
184.18
37.54
4.91
23.36
222.03
47.53
6.69
40.21
383.13
62.68
7.34
44.29
334.84
148.56
11.57
58.5
398.29
147.07
13.42
117.03
659.47
85.04
15.01
94.83
839.6
75.05
14.68
77.91
615.83
(t+,.+,#
PLATA US; / O#$
COBRE US; / L!
"INC US; / L!
PROGNOSIS DEL PRECIO DEL PLOMO CON AÑO 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
AÑO
D4# D = 103
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
5758.300 6044.200 6081.600 6144.000 6338.200 6433.500 6641.000 6825.000 7260.000 7609.000 7869.274 8136.433 5629.015 5036.378
REC"O D4# = 'Ctvs.US 103 $/lb( 35.120 28.320 23.980 22.800 20.590 21.600 20.530 23.360 40.210 44.290 58.500 117.030 94.830 77.910
P/ +ARIA. D P7C'.US;& >D ? 103 ! 35.120 28.320 23.980 22.800 20.590 21.600 20.530 23.360 40.210 44.290 58.500 117.030 94.830 77.910
5758.30
6044.20
6081.60
6144.00
6338.20
6433.50
6641.00
6825.00
7260.00
7609.00
7869.27
8136.43
5629.02
5036.38
+ARIA. P >D&D >P7C'.US;& 7% !
285.900
6.800
4.965
37.400
4.340
0.619
62.400
1.180
1.026
194.200
2.210
3.161
95.300
1.010
1.504
207.500
1.070
3.225
184.000
2.830
2.771
435.000
16.850
6.374
349.000
4.080
4.807
260.274
14.210
3.421
267.159
58.530
3.395
2507.418
22.200
30.817
592.637
16.920 SUMA
10.528 6.079
R# +# P/#'( P/ <#' # /#'( 4#
R!!#$laa', al,!s !' la #*la 2 " 3 t!'!#,s b/ 1.403 +/ 11.582
DO/O = 11.582 ! 1."#DO/O
∆P /
P = ||11.582 + 1.403( ∆D/D)||
! R# ( 4# <('( /4/: ∆ D
= d + e (t )..................................................(4)
D
Aplicando la Ley de Mínio! "#ad$ado! !e %iene&
∑
∆ D D
∑(
= dN + e∑ t.......................................(5)
∆ D D
A/ 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 SUMA
)t =
d
.........(') ∑ t + e ∑ (t ) ................... 2
+/ S '4/ @ +/ ('(/ D4# P/# >D&D ' >D&D ' '2 AÑO 7% 6
4.965
29.790
36
2010
5
0.619
3.094
25
2011
4
1.026
4.104
16
2012
3
3.161
9.482
9
2013
2
1.504
3.007
4
2014
1
3.225
3.225
1
2015
0
2.771
0.000
0
2016
1
6.374
6.374
1
2017
2
4.807
9.614
4
2018
3
3.421
10.262
9
2019
4
3.395
13.580
16
2020
5
30.817
154.086
25
2021
6 0
10.528 6.079
63.169 230.129
36 182
2022
)* +1.264 ,* +0.468 E't,'+!s la E+*a+(,' )*!a !t!#('a +,#,
DO/O = $."%&% $ 1.2%""t
∆D/D
= 0.4'8 1.2'4 %
RESU%TA-OS DEMANDA PRECIO PROECTADO D'4## # P/ +ARIA. P D4# +ARIA. D >D&D AÑO P7C'.US;& >P7C'.US D = 103 >D ? 103 7% ! ;&! 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
5036.378
77.910
4567.053 4083.715 3599.893 3127.874 2678.196 2259.301 1877.358 1536.246 1237.688 981.502 765.934
79.073 76.490 72.635 77.584 70.921 78.270 68.771 59.205 68.491 56.533 67.406
469.325 483.338 483.822 472.019 449.678 418.895 381.943 341.112 298.558 256.185 215.569
1.163 2.583 3.855 4.949 6.663 7.349 9.499 9.566 9.286 11.957 10.873
9.319 10.583 11.848 13.112 14.376 15.641 16.905 18.170 19.434 20.699 21.963
140 120 100
AÑO VS PRECIO
80 60 40 20 0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 20
$RO.ECC"O# -E% $REC" 120
100
80
f(x)== -- 0.3626198931x^2 0.3626198931x^2 + 1461.3609142249x - 1472 f(x) + 1461.360914224 0.2278217009 R²R² ==0.2278217009
60
40
20
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
A DEMANDA
>P&P 7%
7>P&P7>D&D
7>D&D 2
19.362
96.133
24.651
15.325
9.483
0.383
4.921
5.049
1.053
9.693
30.638
9.991
4.905
7.376
2.261
4.954
15.977
10.403
13.785
38.193
7.677
72.132
459.741
40.623
10.147
48.777
23.109
32.084
109.747
11.701
100.051
339.670
11.526
18.969
584.586
949.698
17.842 142.037
187.850 1618.660
110.844 1203.917
( P/4/ '
>D&D UTURO
7
9.319
8
10.583
9
11.848
10
13.112
11
14.376
12
15.641
13
16.905
14
18.170
15
19.434
16
20.699
17
21.963
18
23.228
19
24.492
7
/ @ 4# <('(/ >P&P t!'!'+(a 7% 1.492 3.266 5.040 6.814 8.588 10.362 12.136 13.910 15.684 17.458 19.232
1.492 3.266 5.040 6.814 8.588 10.362 12.136 13.910 15.684 17.458 19.232
8 2010
-E% $%O&O
40.38287369 x - 1472240.38287369
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
PROGNOSIS DEL PRECIO DEL PLO
AÑO
AÑO 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
3
5784.800 5970.100 5957.500 6332.300 6736.900 6701.700 6670.000 6748.000 6955.000 7556.000 7853.404 8174.373 7594.308 7003.838
P7C'. 35.120 28.320 23.980 22.800 20.590 21.600 20.530 23.360 40.210 44.290 58.500 117.030 94.830 77.910
REC"O 'Ctvs. US$/lb(
ERTA 1
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
35.120 28.320 23.980 22.800 20.590 21.600 20.530 23.360 40.210 44.290 58.500 117.030 94.830 77.910
>P7C'.
>O&O 7%
185.300
6.800
3.203
19.362
12.600
4.340
0.211
15.325
374.800
1.180
6.291
4.921
404.600
2.210
6.389
9.693
35.200
1.010
0.522
4.905
31.700
1.070
0.473
4.954
78.000
2.830
1.169
13.785
207.000
16.850
3.068
72.132
601.000
4.080
8.641
10.147
297.404
14.210
3.936
32.084
320.969
58.530
4.087
100.051
580.065
22.200
7.096
18.969
590.469
16.920 SUMA
7.775 20.707
17.842 142.037
OERTA
R# +# P/#'( P/ <#' # /#'( /<'
5784.800 5970.100 5957.500 6332.300 6736.900 6701.700 6670.000 6748.000 6955.000 7556.000 7853.404 8174.373 7594.308 7003.838
R!!#$laa', al,!s !' la #*la 2 " 3 t!'!#,s b/ 2.635 +/ 6.728
DP/O = %.&28" ! 2.%#52DO/O
∆P /
P = ||'.28 + 2.
! R# ( /<' <('( /4/:
'4/ @ +/ ('(/ O<' P/#'( /4/ A/ ' >O&O >O&O ' 7% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
'2
AÑO
'
6
3.203
19.219
36
2010
7
5
0.211
1.055
25
2011
8
4
6.291
25.165
16
2012
9
3
6.389
19.168
9
2013
10
2
0.522
1.045
4
2014
11
1
0.473
0.473
1
2015
12
0
1.169
0.000
0
2016
13
1
3.068
3.068
1
2017
14
2
8.641
17.283
4
2018
15
3
3.936
11.808
9
2019
16
4
4.087
16.348
16
2020
17
5
7.096
35.481
25
2021
18
2009 SUMA
6 0
7.775 20.707
46.651 94.605
36 182
2022
19
)* +0.520 ,* 1.593 E't,'+!s la E+*a+(,' )*!a !t!#('a +,#,
DO/O = 1.5'2' $ .51'8t
∆Ο/*
= 1.53 0.520 % RESU%TA-OS
OERTA PRECIO PROECTADO AÑO 7C'. 3 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
7003.838
77.910
6930.867 6932.601 7007.356 6855.892 6640.615 6906.599 6542.173 6927.600 7442.754 6749.661 7378.854
76.868 76.893 77.971 75.810 72.670 76.675 71.399 77.290 84.727 75.414 84.736
4 # # # >O ?
72.971 1.734 74.755 151.464 215.277 265.984 364.426 385.426 515.155 693.093 629.192
>P 7C'.
1.042 0.025 1.078 2.161 3.140 4.005 5.276 5.891 7.436 9.312 9.322
>O&O
7%
1.042 0.025 1.078 2.161 3.140 4.005 5.276 5.891 7.436 9.312 9.322
1.337 0.033 1.402 2.772 4.142 5.512 6.882 8.251 9.621 10.991 12.361
140 120 100
AÑO VS PRECIO
80 60 40 20 0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
120 100 80 60
f(x) = - 0.1471298781x^2 + 593.9260369667x R² = 0.1653573883
40 20 0 2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
$RO.ECC"O# -E% $
PRECIO PRO(ECTADO
A,* 2' 21 211 212 21# 21" 215 21% 21& 218 21' 22
.D-MAD P .*-A 0.000 1.163
77.910 76.868
2.583 3.855 4.949 6.663 7.349
76.893 77.971 75.810 72.670 76.675
9.499 12.209 11.851 15.260
71.399 77.290 84.727 75.414
19.746
84.736
O CON LA OFERTA
7>P&P7>O&O
7>O&O2
62.021
10.261
3.234
0.045
30.958
39.580
61.933
40.825
2.563
0.273
2.343
0.224
16.120
1.368
221.270
9.410
87.681
74.671
126.283
15.492
408.910
16.704
134.610
50.355
138.728 981.703
60.453 319.660
35(∆Ο/*)||
>O&O UTURO 2.046 2.566 3.085 3.605 4.125 4.645 5.165 5.684 6.204 6.724 7.244 7.764
8.283
1.337 0.033 1.402 2.772 4.142 5.512 6.882 8.251 9.621 10.991 12.361
004 2006 2008 2010
599297.914145245
18
2020
2022
2024
REC"O -E % $%O&O
EL PLOMO )Ctv*. US+/l,-
*-"AD* #8.'55 #'.15 #&.155 #&.58 ".#8 ##.# "2.12 ".""' #2.5"1 "8.28' "5.##& #2."'5
PROGNOSIS DEL PRECIO DEL COBRE CON AÑO 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
AÑO 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
D4# P/ +ARIA. D D = P7C'.US;& >D ? 103 103 ! 12.473 12.624 13.023 13.501 14.823 15.020 15.100 15.250 16.716 16.803 17.026 18.121 18.489 19.446
104.140 103.280 75.020 71.320 82.240 71.600 70.740 80.700 129.990 166.870 304.910 322.930 315.510 233.520
REC"O -E&A#-A 'Ctvs.US $/lb( 104.140 103.280 75.020 71.320 82.240 71.600 70.740 80.700 129.990 166.870 304.910 322.930 315.510 233.520
12.473
12.624
13.023
13.501
14.823
15.020
15.100
15.250
16.716
16.803
17.026
18.121
18.489
19.446
+ARIA. P >D&D >P7C'.US 7% ;&!
0.151
0.860
1.213
0.399
28.260
3.160
0.478
3.700
3.667
1.323
10.920
9.796
0.197
10.640
1.329
0.080
0.860
0.533
0.150
9.960
0.993
1.466
49.290
9.613
0.087
36.880
0.520
0.223
138.040
1.327
1.095
18.020
6.431
0.368
7.420
2.031
0.957
81.990 SUMA
5.176 45.789
R# +# P/#'( P/ <#' # /#'( 4#
R!!#$laa', al,!s !' la #*la 2 " 3 t!'!#,s b/ 1.442 +/ 5.071
DP/P = 5.&11 ! 1.""15DD/D
/ P = ||5.01 + 1.442( ∆D/D ! R# ( 4# <('( /!: ∆ D
= d + e (t )..................................................(4)
D
Aplicando la Ley de Mínio! "#ad$ado! !e %iene&
∑
∆ D D
∑(
= dN + e∑ t.......................................(5)
∆ D D
)t =
d
.........(') ∑ t + e ∑ (t ) ................... 2
+/ S '4/ @ +/ ('(/ D4# P/# >D&D ' >D&D ' '2 AÑO 7%
A/ 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 SUMA
6
1.213
5
3.160
4
3.667
3
36
2010
25
2011
14.666
16
2012
9.796
29.388
9
2013
2
1.329
2.658
4
2014
1
0.533
0.533
1
2015
0
0.993
0.000
0
2016
1
9.613
9.613
1
2017
2
0.520
1.041
4
2018
3
1.327
3.981
9
2019
4
6.431
25.725
16
2020
5
2.031
10.154
25
2021
6 0
5.176 45.789
31.056 27.048
36 182
2022
)* 0.149 ,* 3.522
7.278
E't,'+!s la E+*a+(,' )*!a !t!#('a +,#,
DD/D = #.522# ! .1"8%t
∆D/D
= 3.522 + 0.14 % RESU%TA-OS
DEMANDA PRECIO PROECTADO D'4## # D4# P/ +ARIA. P +ARIA. D >D&D AÑO D = P7C'.US;& >P7C'.US 3 >D ? 10 7% 103 ! ;&! 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
19.446
233.520
20.333 21.291 22.326 23.444 24.653 25.961 27.377 28.911 30.574 32.378 34.336
260.721 291.648 326.869 286.694 250.843 218.938 247.254 279.762 317.144 274.088 236.290
0.887 0.958 1.035 1.118 1.209 1.308 1.416 1.534 1.663 1.804 1.958
27.201 30.927 35.221 40.175 35.851 31.905 28.316 32.508 37.382 43.056 37.798
4.563 4.711 4.860 5.008 5.157 5.306 5.454 5.603 5.751 5.900 6.049
400 300
AÑO VS PRECIO
200 100 0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
400 350 300
f(x) = 1.8184062467x^2 - 7324.4360192021x + 7375830.45889 R² = 0.5898784738
250 200 150 100 50 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2
A DEMANDA
>P&P 7%
7>P&P7>D&D
7>D&D 2
0.826
1.002
1.471
27.363
86.461
9.985
4.932
18.084
13.444
15.311
149.988
95.960
12.938
17.194
1.766
1.201
0.640
0.284
14.080
13.986
0.987
61.078
587.150
92.412
28.371
14.766
0.271
82.723
109.785
1.761
5.910
38.009
41.362
2.298
4.666
4.124
25.986 131.930
134.507 651.132
26.792 290.619
'( /! '
>D&D UTURO
7
4.563
8
4.711
9
4.860
10
5.008
11
5.157
12
5.306
13
5.454
14
5.603
15
5.751
16
5.900
17
6.049
18
6.197
19
6.346
/ @ 4# <('(/ >P&P t!'!'+(a 7% 11.648 11.862 12.077 12.291 12.505 12.719 12.933 13.148 13.362 13.576 13.790
11.648 11.862 12.077 12.291 12.505 12.719 12.933 13.148 13.362 13.576 13.790
010
763
020 2021 2022 2023
ROGNOSIS DEL PRECIO DEL COBRE CON LA
AÑO 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
AÑO
O<' = 103
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
485.595 506.496 483.338 536.387 553.924 722.355 844.553 842.605 1035.574 1009.899 1048.472 1190.274 1267.867 1523.489
P/ P 7C'. US;&!
104.140 103.280 75.020 71.320 82.240 71.600 70.740 80.700 129.990 166.870 304.910 322.930 315.510 233.520
REC"O 'Ctvs. US$/lb(
OERTA
104.140 103.280 75.020 71.320 82.240 71.600 70.740 80.700 129.990 166.870 304.910 322.930 315.510 233.520
485.595 506.496 483.338 536.387 553.924 722.355 844.553 842.605 1035.574 1009.899 1048.472 1190.274 1267.867 1523.489
+ARIA. O >O ? 103
+ARIA. P >P 7C'. US;&!
>O&O 7%
20.901
0.860
4.304
0.826
23.158
28.260
4.572
27.363
53.049
3.700
10.976
4.932
17.537
10.920
3.269
15.311
168.431
10.640
30.407
12.938
122.198
0.860
16.917
1.201
1.948
9.960
0.231
14.080
192.969
49.290
22.901
61.078
25.675
36.880
2.479
28.371
38.573
138.040
3.819
82.723
141.802
18.020
13.525
5.910
77.593
7.420
6.519
2.298
255.622
81.990 SUMA
20.162 125.517
25.986 131.930
R# +# P/#'( P/ <#' # /#'( /<'
>P&P 7%
R!!#$laa', al,!s !' la #*la 2 " 3 t!'!#,s
b* +0.288 * 12.929 DO/O = 12.'2'" $ .288DO/O
∆P /
P = ||12.2 0.288( ∆Ο/*)||
! R# ( /<' <('( /!:
A/ 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
+/ S '4/ @ +/ ('(/ O<' P/#'( /! >O&O ' >O&O ' '2 AÑO ' 7% 6
4.304
25.825
36
2010
7
5
4.572
22.861
25
2011
8
4
10.976
43.902
16
2012
9
3
3.269
9.808
9
2013
10
2
30.407
60.814
4
2014
11
1
16.917
16.917
1
2015
12
0
0.231
0.000
0
2016
13
1
22.901
22.901
1
2017
14
2
2.479
4.959
4
2018
15
2006 2007 2008 2009 SUMA
3
3.819
11.458
9
2019
16
4
13.525
54.099
16
2020
17
5
6.519
32.595
25
2021
18
6 0
20.162 125.517
120.969 102.659
36 182
2022
19
)* 0.564 ,* 8.965 E't,'+!s la E+*a+(,' )*!a !t!#('a +,#,
DO/O = 8.'%55 ! .5%"1t
∆Ο/*
= 8.'5 + 0.5'4 % RESU%TA-OS
OERTA PRECIO PROECTADO D'4## # / @ /< O<' P/ P +ARIA. O +ARIA. P >O&O >P&P AÑO O= 7C'. >O ? >P 7C'. 7% 7% 103 US;&! 103 US;&! 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
1523.489
233.520
1720.231 1952.082 2226.194 2551.353 2938.397 3400.730 3954.989 4621.891 5427.318 6403.716 7591.892
255.027 278.100 302.809 276.397 252.737 231.513 250.579 270.807 292.228 269.587 249.139
196.742 231.852 274.112 325.159 387.044 462.333 554.259 666.902 805.427 976.397 1188.176
21.507 23.073 24.709 26.412 23.660 21.224 19.065 20.228 21.421 22.641 20.449
12.914 13.478 14.042 14.606 15.170 15.734 16.298 16.862 17.426 17.990 18.554
I 350 300 250
AÑO VS PRECIO
200 150 100 50 0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
9.210 9.047 8.885 8.722 8.560 8.398 8.235 8.073 7.910 7.748 7.585
350 300 250
f(x) = 1.0175198834x^2 - 4098.6335131265x + 4127623.3017 R² = 0.5337241121
200 150 100 50 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$R O.ECC"O# -E% $R EC"O -
CIO PRO(ECTADO DEL COBRE )Ctv*. US+
A,* 2' 21 211 212 21# 21" 215 21% 21& 218 21' 22
.D-MAD P .*-A *-"AD* 260.721
233.520
291.648 256.427 224.910 253.035 220.851 192.287
255.027 278.100 302.809 276.397 252.737 231.513
217.569 246.640 280.124 318.755 363.395
250.579 270.807 292.228 269.587 249.139
2"&.12 2&#.##& 2%&.2%" 2%#.8% 2%".&1% 2#%.&'" 211.' 2#".&" 258.&2" 28%.1&% 2'".1&1 #%.2%&
OFERT
7>P&P7>O&O
7>O&O2
3.554
18.526
125.107
20.905
54.132
120.463
50.060
10.689
393.396
924.578
20.319
286.172
3.248
0.053
1398.778
524.478
70.341
6.147
315.960
14.589
79.930
182.916
14.979
42.496
523.929 885.937
406.489 2558.501
>O&O UTURO 12.914 13.478 14.042 14.606 15.170 15.734 16.298 16.862 17.426
17.990 18.554 19.119 19.683
<('(/ '## 9.210 9.047 8.885 8.722 8.560 8.398 8.235 8.073 7.910 7.748 7.585
4139
020 2021 2022 2023
% COBRE
PROGNOSIS DEL PRECIO DEL ZINC CON L AÑO 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
AÑO
D4# D = 103
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
7531.900 7615.300 7968.600 8369.200 8729.000 8635.700 8432.000 1099.564 934.806
REC"O 'Ctvs.US -E&A#-A $/lb( 46.520 59.750 46.460 48.820 51.160 40.170 35.320 37.540 47.530 62.680 148.560 147.070 85.040 75.050
P/ +ARIA. D P7C'.US;& >D ? 103 ! 46.520 59.750 46.460 48.820 51.160 40.170 35.320 37.540 47.530 62.680 148.560 147.070 85.040 75.050
7531.90
7615.30
7968.60
8369.20
8729.00
8635.70
8432.00
11332.00
14333.00 14389.00 16631.69 19454.53
1099.56
934.81
+ARIA. P >D&D >P7C'.US 7% ;&!
83.400
13.230
1.107
353.300
13.290
4.639
400.600
2.360
5.027
359.800
2.340
4.299
93.300
10.990
1.069
203.700
4.850
2.359
2900.000
2.220
34.393
3001.000
9.990
26.483
56.000
15.150
0.391
2242.690
85.880
15.586
2822.842
1.490
16.973
18354.968
62.030
94.348
164.758
9.990 SUMA
14.984 3.862
R# +# P/#'( P/ <#' # /#'( 4#
R!!#$laa', al,!s !' la #*la 2 " 3 t!'!#,s b/ 0.626 +/ 10.138
DP/P = 1.1#&& ! .%2%1DD/D
/ P = ||10.138 + 0.'2'( ∆D/D ! R# ( 4# <('( $#:
∆ D D
= d + e (t )..................................................(4)
Aplicando la Ley de Mínio! "#ad$ado! !e %iene& ∆ D
∑ D
= dN + e∑ t.......................................(5)
∆ D
.........(') ∑ ( D )t = d ∑ t + e∑ (t) ...................
A/ 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
2
+/ S '4/ @ +/ ('(/ D4# P/ >D&D ' >D&D ' '2 AÑO 7% 6
1.107
6.644
36
2010
5
4.639
23.197
25
2011
4
5.027
20.109
16
2012
3
4.299
12.897
9
2013
2
1.069
2.138
4
2014
1
2.359
2.359
1
2015
0
34.393
0.000
0
2016
1
26.483
26.483
1
2017
2
0.391
0.781
4
2018
3
15.586
46.758
9
2019
4
16.973
67.891
16
2020
5
94.348
471.740
25
2021
2009 SUMA
6 0
14.984 3.862
89.904 478.081
36 182
2022
)* +2.627 ,* +0.297 E't,'+!s la E+*a+(,' )*!a !t!#('a +,#,
DD/D = $.2'&1 $ 2.%2%8t
∆D/D
= 0.2 2.'2 % RESU%TA-OS
DEMANDA PRECIO PROECTADO D'4## # P/ +ARIA. P D4# +ARIA. D >D&D AÑO P7C'.US;& >P7C'.US 3 3 D = 10 >D ? 10 7% ! ;&! 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
934.806
75.050
760.139 598.141 454.956 334.096 236.566 161.293 105.735 66.536 40.122 23.140 12.738
76.222 78.666 74.850 79.712 86.200 77.766 68.877 77.883 89.346 103.967 122.690
174.667 161.998 143.186 120.860 97.529 75.273 55.559 39.199 26.414 16.982 10.402
1.172 2.444 3.816 4.862 6.489 8.435 8.888 9.005 11.464 14.621 18.723
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
AÑO VS PRECIO
18.685 21.312 23.938 26.565 29.192 31.819 34.446 37.073 39.699 42.326 44.953
140 120 100
f(x) = 0.058980392x^2 - 235.7868949749x + 2 80 R² = 0.3225310742 60 40 20 0 2008200920102011 2012201320142015 201620172018 201
$R O.ECC"O# -E% $R EC
A DEMANDA
>P&P 7%
7>P&P7>D&D
7>D&D 2
28.439
31.491
1.226
22.243
103.191
21.524
5.080
25.537
25.273
4.793
20.606
18.482
21.482
22.961
1.142
12.074
28.480
5.564
6.285
216.172
1182.864
26.612
704.743
701.324
31.875
12.454
0.153
137.013
2135.510
242.928
1.003
17.023
288.072
42.177
3979.335
8901.551
11.747 129.372
176.023 7233.096
224.519 11614.622
'( $# '
>D&D UTURO
7
18.685
8
21.312
9
23.938
10
26.565
11
29.192
12
31.819
13
34.446
14
37.073
15
39.699
16
42.326
17
44.953
18
47.580
19
50.207
/ @ 4# <('(/ >P&P t!'!'+(a 7% 1.561 3.206 4.851 6.496 8.140 9.785 11.430 13.075 14.719 16.364 18.009
1.561 3.206 4.851 6.496 8.140 9.785 11.430 13.075 14.719 16.364 18.009
5719.819436471
2020 2021 2022 2023
"O -E% !"#C
PROGNOSIS DEL PRECIO DEL ZINC CON
AÑO 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
O<' AÑO 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
O= 103
7445.000 7726.600 8022.600 8436.200 9185.700 9136.600 9377.000 9848.000 1312.463 1279.238 1931.493 1643.613
REC"O 'Ctvs. US$/lb(
46.520 7445.000 59.750 7726.600 46.460 8022.600 48.820 8436.200 51.160 9185.700 40.170 9136.600 35.320 9377.000 37.540 9848.000 47.530 62.680 148.560 1312.463 147.070 1279.238 85.040 1931.493 75.050 1643.613
P/ P +ARIA. O 7C'. >O ? 103 US;&!
46.520 59.750 46.460 48.820 51.160 40.170 35.320 37.540 47.530 62.680 148.560 147.070 85.040 75.050
OERTA
+ARIA. P >P 7C'. US;&!
>O&O 7%
281.600
13.230
3.782
296.000
13.290
3.831
413.600
2.360
5.155
749.500
2.340
8.884
49.100
10.990
0.535
240.400
4.850
2.631
471.000
2.220
5.023
808.000
9.990
8.205
20.000
15.150
0.188
9323.537
85.880
87.660
33.225
1.490
2.531
652.255
62.030
50.988
287.880
9.990 SUMA
14.905 17.319
R# +# P/#'( P/ <#' # /#'( /<'
R!!#$laa', al,!s !' la #*la 2 " 3 t!'!#,s b/ 1.259 +/ 8.275
DO/O = 8.2&5 $ 1.2585DO/O
/ P = ||8.25 1.25( ∆Ο/*) ! R# ( /<' <('( /4/:
A/ 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
+/ S '4/ @ +/ ('(/ O<' P/#' >O&O ' >O&O ' '2 AÑO 7% 6
3.782
22.694
36
2010
5
3.831
19.155
25
2011
4
5.155
20.622
16
2012
3
8.884
26.653
9
2013
2
0.535
1.069
4
2014
1
2.631
2.631
1
2015
0
5.023
0.000
0
2016
1
8.205
8.205
1
2017
2
0.188
0.375
4
2018
3
87.660
262.981
9
2019
4
2.531
10.126
16
2020
5
50.988
254.939
25
2021
2009 SUMA
6 0
14.905 17.319
89.427 190.451
36 182
2022
)* +1.046 ,* +1.332 E't,'+!s la E+*a+(,' )*!a !t!#('a +,#,
∆Ο/*
= 1.332 1.04' % RESU%TA-OS
OERTA PRECIO PROECTADO D'4## # P/ P +ARIA. O +ARIA. P O<' = >O&O AÑO 7C'. >O ? >P 7C'. 3 10 7% US;&! 103 US;&! 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
1643.613
75.050
1501.321 1355.638 1209.905 1067.178 930.120 800.932 681.305 572.417 474.942 389.095 314.694
89.437 107.761 84.264 103.747 129.102 95.851 69.902 89.746 116.407 152.520 201.846
142.292 145.684 145.733 142.727 137.058 129.188 119.626 108.888 97.475 85.847 74.401
14.387 18.324 23.497 19.483 25.354 33.251 25.949 19.845 26.660 36.113 49.326
8.657 9.704 10.750 11.797 12.843 13.889 14.936 15.982 17.029 18.075 19.122
160 140 120 100
AÑO VS PRECIO
80 60 40 20 0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2
250 200 150
100
f(x) = - 0.0975401403x^2 + 397.336771693 R² = 0.2421381063
50 0 2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
$R O.ECC"O# -E% $R EC
PRECIO PRO(ECTADO DE LA IN
A,* 2' 21 211 212 21# 21" 215 21% 21& 218 21' 22
.D-MAD P .*-A P. P*-" 0.000 0.000
75.050 89.437
174.667 161.998 143.186 120.860 97.529 75.273
107.761 84.264 103.747 129.102 95.851 69.902
55.559 39.199 26.414 16.982
89.746 116.407 152.520 201.846
#&.525 "".&1' $##."5# $#8.8%& $1'.&1' ".121 $.8#' $2.%85 1&.'" #8.%" %#.5# '2."#2
LA OFERTA
>P&P 7%
7>P&P7>O&O
7>O&O2
28.439
107.569
14.307
22.243
85.210
14.676
5.080
26.188
26.579
4.793
42.584
78.931
21.482
11.482
0.286
12.074
31.768
6.923
6.285
31.571
25.230
26.612
218.341
67.317
31.875
5.982
0.035
137.013
12010.620
7684.308
1.003
2.539
6.408
42.177
2150.523
2599.756
11.747 129.372
175.090 13668.739
222.145 10746.901
"INC '
>O&O UTURO
7
8.657
8
9.704
9
10.750
10
11.797
11
12.843
12
13.889
13
14.936
14
15.982
15
17.029
16
18.075
17
19.122
18
20.168
19
21.214
/ @ /<' <('(/ >P&P '## 7% 19.171 20.488 21.805 23.121 24.438 25.755 27.072 28.389 29.706 31.023 32.340
10
19.171 20.488 21.805 23.121 24.438 25.755 27.072 28.389 29.706 31.023 32.340
