THE COMPETITIVE FORCES FORCES AFFECTING INDUSTRY INDUSTRY MEMBERS: PORTER’S FIVEFORCES MODEL FOR ANALYSIS
Pressure from Buyer Bargaining Power--High
The three components that make up the “buyers” of beer are made up of distributors/wholesales, distributors/wholesales, retailers/restaurants, retailers/restaurants, and consumers. Distributor/wholesalers Distributor/wholesalers embody an essential link in the market channel for breweries here in the US given regulations prohibiting the sale of beer directly to both retailers and consumers. Thus, distributors/wholesalers distributors/wholesalers have quite a bit of bargaining power power and can impact market share by way of their support, marketing, and promotions depending on the incentives offered by the manufacturer. Retailers and restaurants are another cog of the buyer channel. The main goal of the retailer is to drive traffic through their stores in order to improve sales and, coincidentally, coincidentally, balancing profit margins. margins. As a result, retailers are looking to stock their shelves or bars with the beer products that are selling with a recent focus on more sub-premium brands due to the recent economic situation, as well as supporting their growth of craft beers which have been outgrowing the industry and offer higher average selling prices as well as higher higher margins. Lastly, consumers ultimately drive the preferences of both the distributor and the retailer channel as they are the end “user” of the beer beverage. beverage. With the plethora plethora of beverage choices in the market, market, both alcoholic and non-alcoholic, along with the consumer becoming increasingly knowledgeable, knowledgeable, several themes have played out impacting the industry: industry: As noted above, consumers are trading up to craft beers given consumers are drinking less as a whole and looking looking for more flavor when they do. Thus, the newness, interest in experimentation with unusual flavors, and, often, the desire to support local business is driving a shift to the smaller brewers. At the same time, the beer consumer is also economically sensitive so a trade down to less expensive sub-premium beers is occurring—thus, occurring—thus, squeezing the middle tier brands/players. Notable here is beer prices have grown ahead of inflation over the last 5-6 years and
increasing excise taxes are also impacting the affordability of beer. Health and wellness (believe it or not) is also a theme playing out in the beer industry with strong consumer appeal for lower calorie, ultralight beer.
Pressure from Supplier Bargaining Power--Medium
Competitive pressure from supplier bargaining power is considered to be generally low with respect to the industry as a whole. However, due to the high commodity raw material exposure—around 58% of industry cost of goods sold—which include packaging (glass/aluminum/cardboard), barley, sugar, malt, corn, rice, wheat, hops and preservatives--uncertainty regarding cost swings is high. Suppliers of these materials would include hops and grains suppliers, wheat and barley farmers, flour millers, corn/wheat/soybean wholesalers, sugar processors, wood pallet suppliers, cardboard box/container manufactures, and glass product manufacturers. Thus, when recent “shocks” hit the commodities market, i.e. Russia placing an export ban on wheat, brewers see their costs rise in accordance.
Rivalry amongst Sellers—Medium/Increasing
Competition among sellers in the Beer Industry is based primarily on brand, quality, and packaging with price not embodying the most important factor. In recent years, the industry has also consolidated quite notably with the top four brewers—AB Inbev, MillerCoors, Heineken, and Carlsberg--controlling 50% of the global share and AB Inbev and MillerCoors alone making up 80% of the US market share. With this consolidation and the resulting stronghold over the market, competition is increasing within the Beer Industry for distribution, raw material access, and customer loyalty.
The rise of the craft-brewing sector is another notable competitive development. The smaller brewer segment has gone from only 50 in 1983 to 1,828 in 2010. This segment continues to grow/gain share and has outperformed the overall beer category for 6 straight years as consumers are looking for newness, experimentation, and supporting smaller local brewers. Retail support has also been strong for this segment given its relatively higher margins as well as the four straight years of double digit growth the
segment has seen in the supermarket venue. However, while the share of craft brewers has grown to 5% in 2010 from 3% in 2000, it is still dwarfed by the top four and often seen as a breeding ground for potential acquisitions for the large breweries as they look to find growth. Lastly, import brand is another competitive set in the Beer Industry. Recent data shows imports are perceived as a higher-end product which appeals to the consumer—import share in the US was up 1.9% in 2010 vs. domestic down 2.6%.
Pressure from Sellers of Substitute Products—Medium/Increasing
The pressure from sellers of substitute products is considered medium to increasing. Recent data suggests both the wine and spirits industry are gaining share at the expense of beer. A 2011 Gallup Poll noted 36% of those surveyed preferred beer to wind and liquor—down from 41% in 2010. Within that, the all important 18-34 year old group saw its beer preference fall from 51% to 39%. Also notable, the per capital consumption of malt beverages has been steadily declining—from 24.6 gallons in 1981 to 20.6 gallons in 2010. The drivers to this include both the wine and spirits industries have increased both their promotions and pricing more aggressively versus beer, the growing perception of beer being less healthy and exotic than wine and spirits, demographics, and both increased alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverage competition.
The Threat of New Entrants--Medium
While the Beer Industry has seen a boom of craft brewers enter the marketplace over the last five years, the barriers to entry still remain fairly high. The big brewers have significant economies of scale, the ability to spend large amounts on branding, marketing, and promotions, as well as somewhat of a lock on both the limited shelf space of the retailer as well as the distributor/wholesale channel with regulations limiting the number of distribution agreements on a regional basis. In addition, the process of brewing beer is very capital intensive with the manufacturing process and the branding involved. Lastly, as alluded to above, the industry is highly regulated and taxed on both a federal, state, and even local level.
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