OTHER BOOKS BY WARREN MERCHANT
Emergency Coordination Every Second Counts Office of Emergency Management: Anticipating the Gathering Storm Structural Failure in Disasters Escaping Plight, Hardship, and Adversity on Your Own
WARREN MERCHANT
WARNING This book describes catastrophe-level situations where society has broken down and individual safety is at risk. Since neither the author nor any reader of this book has ever experienced such a situation, there is no way to know whether events would unfold along the paths projected in these pages. As such, the author and publisher of this book disclaim any liability li ability from the use or mi misuse suse of any information herein. This book theorizes possible consequences of hypothetical events, and therefore we do not guarantee that the information is complete, safe, or accurate. We also urge you to obey all laws and respect all rights of others.
INTRODUCTION This book was born b orn out of my dissatisfaction with existing sur vival guides. Most of them focus on singular singular catastrophes that occur in a matter of minutes or hours, requiring immediate but short-term responses. That kind of preparation and awareness is useful, but it doesn’t address another kind of potential situation: Namely, the kind of disaster that nobody nobo dy is preparing for, a full-on collapse—the end of the world, or at least that’s how it would seem if you were in the middle of it. That would demand a different kind of preparation. One way to think of it is to ask yourself these questions: questions: What would I do if I knew help wasn’t coming in the aftermath of a catastrophic event? What would I do if I knew I had to survive on my own?
It’s difficult to conceptualize and plan for this kind of disaster, because when everything is falling apart—and I mean everything, as you’ll see when I break scenarios down later in the book—planning breaks down too. How do you plan for not being able to plan? Consider the fact that we have hurricane evacuation and response plans, but we don’t seem to be doing anything about climate change, which will likely create more and stronger hurricanes. Why? Because one is an easily defined event with a beginning (the hurricane), middle (response and reconstruction), and end (restoration of normalcy). The other is a long-term problem with a number of potential consequences, requiring fundamental changes in the way we do things. Those changes are hard to make because the reasons for them aren’t immediately clear. Human beings are very good at responding to immediate threats and very poor at planning for long-term consequences. Why is that an issue? Because it’s the the long-term long-term problems problems that that destroy civilizations. Even the most devastating single event is surmountable.
I N T R O D U C T I O N
E S P A L L O C K R O Y W E N
HOW CERA CLASSIFIES DISASTERS
CERA, or the Catastrophic Emergency Response Agency, classifies what we would broadly call disasters according to four categories, in ascending order of damage.
• EMERGENCY: A local event that can be managed with local resources.
•• DISASTER: A local, time-limited event that leaves regional and national resources sufficiently intact so that aid and response are available.
••• CATASTROPHE: A large-scale event with national or international consequences. Local and regional response resources are overwhelmed, and complex, far-reaching
consequences persist over the long term. Societal infrastructure is damaged or destroyed.
•••• EXTINCTION-LEVEL EVENT: Exactly what it says. We won’t be dealing with these in this book because, if one happens, you won’t be around to read about it.
We’re most concerned with what CERA would call a CATASTROPHE, an event that has widespread, persistent, and complex ef fects. Some European countries use the term HYPERCOMPLEX EMERGENCY. Many people are paid to think about this stuf f (I’m one of them), and they tend to characterize a catastrophe according to the following list of effects.
• Most or all community structures are affected, including emergency response facilities. • Local response is compromised or fails due to loss of personnel and/or facilities. • Aid to the region is not possible because all neighboring neighboring areas are affected. • Everyday community functions are totally interrupted. • Destruction of local and regional infrastructure means national government must take charge—if it is still intact and able to do so.
In other words: HELP HE LP IS NOT COMING. COMIN G. NOT NOW, MAYBE MAYBE NOT FOR A LONG TIME. YOU’RE ON YOUR OWN.
I N T R O D U C T I O N
NEW YORK COLLAPSE by Alex Irvine AVAILABLE AV AILABLE FOR PRE -ORDER NOW wherever books are sold
Introducing New York Collapse , the exclusive story companion to Tom Clancy’s The Division. Division . At first glance, it appears to be an illustrated guide for surviving urban catastrophe: how to protect yourself, yourself, find vital supplies, and stay alive. But someone owned this book before you. She left her notes in the margins, and retracing her steps reveals key secrets at the heart of the blockbuster new game.
Full book features removable artifacts, including: Emergencyy flyer • Emergenc
• Folded New York City map • And 5 more!
Design by Headcase Design. Illustrations by Son of Alan. Puzzle material by Puzzability. © 2015 Ubisoft Entertainment. All Rights Reserved. Tom Clancy’s, The Division logo, the Soldier icon, Ubisoft and the Ubisoft logo are trademarks of Ubisoft Entertainment in the U.S. and/or other countries.
