18th Electric Power Survey of India

Subject

S u bj b j e c t : 1 8 El E l e c t r i c P o w e r S u rv rv e y o f I n d i a . The 18 Electric Power Survey Committee (EPSC) was constituted in Feb.,2011 with the following terms of reference:i) To forecast the year wise electricity demand projection for each State, Union Territory, Region and All India in detail up to the end of 12th Plan i. e. for the years 2012-13 to 2016-17. ii) To project the perspective electricity demand up to the 13th & 14th Five Year Plans i.e. year 2021-22 & 2026-27. A Brain Storming Session & 1st meeting of EPSC was held in August, 2010 to elicit the views/suggestions of Eminent Experts and Members of the EPSC for deciding the details and action plan for taking up 18th EPS. Based on the deliberations, the Committee decided to use Partial End Use Method (PEUM) for conducting the EPS. On account of rapid urbanization, development of SEZs, industrial states and dedicated freight corridors etc. which would have significant impact on the perspective electricity demand in various categories of consumption in 12th Plan and beyond, the committee decided to enlarge the scope of 18th EPS by including EPS of Mega Cities, NCR, Delhi. The Committee also decided that the results of EPS carried out by PEUM method be validated by using econometric model. Accordingly, the 18th report of Electric Power Survey of India is being brought out in four volumes as per details given below:Volume I - All India 18th EPS /Region /State/UT wise Electric Power, Survey of India. Volume II - Electric Power Survey of Mega Cities Volume III - Electric Power Survey of NCR, Delhi Volume IV - 18 ' EPS of India [by econometric model] The 2nd & 3rd meeting of 18th EPSC were held in March, 2011 & June, 2011 respectively to discuss the preliminary forecast of states, revised action plan for completing the studies and consultation with State Utilities/State Electricity Regulatory Commissions and draft report of 18th EPS of India (Volume -1). The Committee in its 3rd meeting accepted the draft report in principle and directed CEA to finalize the same after considering the views/ suggestions of various states. Accordingly, the revised draft report was completed in October, 2011. The details of electricity demand forecast for each state was sent to the concerned states by Email/Speed Post and the draft report has been finalized after incorporating the views/ suggestions of concerned states. The Authority in its meeting held on 19th December, 2011 deliberated the report of 18th EPS (Vol-I) and accorded concurrence for its publication. A brief Note outlining the results of the forecast of 18th EPS (Vol. I) is given in Annex for information of Ministry of Power. N o t e o n 1 8 E l e c t r i c P o w e r S u r v e y o f I n d i a ( V o l .1 .1 ) General Periodic Electric Power Survey (EPS) of the country is conducted by CEA to forecast State/Union Territory-wise/All India Electricity demand on short, medium and long term basis as a foremost planning exercise to base subsequent planning activities. The forecast of electricity demand is an important input for power sector planning to optimally utilize scarce resources. EPS were earlier being conducted annually up to year 1982 (11th Electric Power Survey). Thereafter, five year Plan-wise EPS were undertaken from 12th Electric Power Survey onwards. The 17th EPS, the latest in the series of Electric Power Surveys, was carried out by CEA and its report was published in March, 2007. It covered the forecast of year-wise electricity demand for each State/ UT/ Region/ All India in details up the end of 11th Plan viz. 2011-12 as well as the perspective electricity demand for the terminal years of 12th & 13th Five Year Plan i.e. 2016-17 and 2021-22. 1 8 t h E l e c t r i c P ow o w e r S u rv rv e y The 18th Electric Power Survey Committee (EPSC) was constituted in February, 2010 with the following Terms of Reference:i) To forecast the year wise electricity demand projection for each State, Union Territory, Region and All India in detail up to the end of 12th Plan i. e. for the years 2012-13 to 2016-17. ii) To project the perspective electricity demand for the terminal years of 13th & 14th Five Year Plans i.e. year 2021-22 & 2026-27. The work of 18th EPS was taken up by CEA as per guidelines/directions of 18th EPSC. A brainstorming session-cum-1st Meeting of the EPSC was held in August, 2010 to discuss the methodology to be adopted, proformae to be used for conducting EPS and modalities for collection/ compilation of the input data from various State utilities and other concerned organizations/departments. It was also decided that unlike earlier power surveys, the scope of 18th EPS be enlarged to cover EPS of Mega cities on account of rapid urbanization, development of SEZs, industrial file:////server/Prasan/STORIES_2011/December/Dec%203...ts/18th%20Electric%20Power%20Survey%20of%20India.htm (1 of 7)12/30/2011 6:24:52 PM

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estates and dedicated freight corridors which would have significant impact on the perspective electricity demand in various categories of consumption in 12th Plan and beyond. The 2nd Meeting of 18th EPSC was held in March, 2011 wherein Committee discussed the preliminary forecast of 15 Nos. States/UTs and reviewed the action plan for completing studies. The EPSC emphasized on the need for consultation with State utilities and State Electricity Regulatory Commissions (SERCs) to study the pattern of growth of consumption in various categories, programmes of reducing the T&D losses and implementation of steps/measures for improvement of energy efficiency. The EPSC decided that the report of the 18th EPS be prepared in the following four volumes:Volume - I All India 18th EPS /Region /State/UT wise - September, 2011 Volume - II Electric Power Survey of Mega Cities - February, 2012 Volume - III Electric Power Survey of NCR, Delhi - June, 2012 Volume - IV 18th EPS of India [by econometric model] - October, 2012 EPSC in its 3rd meeting held in June, 2011, discussed the draft report of 18th Electric Power Survey (Volume-I). The Committee accepted the draft report in principle and directed to CEA to finalize the same after considering the views/suggestions of State authorities. C o n su l t a t i o n s w i t h S t a t e A u t h o r i t i e s a n d S t a t e E l e c t r i c i t y R e g u l a t o r y C o m m i s s i o n s ( SE RC s ): The preliminary forecast of electricity demand of various states prepared by CEA was discussed in the meetings with State TRANSCOs, State Electricity Boards/Departments as well as SERCs to elicit their views on the growth rate in various categories of electricity consumption, policies/ programmes launched by the respective State Governments to strengthen the infrastructure for transmission and distribution and steps/measures being proposed to be taken for improvement of energy efficiency programme for reduction of Transmission & Distribution Losses, implementation of various programmes for rural electrification and Demand Side Management which would have bearing on the electricity demand in the foreseeable future. The input data including proposal of States/UTs for demand projection were scrutinized and discussed before incorporating in the report EPS. Apart from growth in electricity demand, there would also be marginal reduction due to implementation of various steps/measures for improvement of energy efficiency. The 17th EPS had broadly encompassed the aims and objectives of National Electricity Policy (NEP) [notified in 2005] such as access to electricity by 2012, electricity demand to be fully met by 2012, increase in the per capita availability of electricity to 1000 units by 2012 and reduction of T&D Losses to be in line with international practices by the year 2012. The objectives of NEP are partially fulfilled as T&D Losses in various States/UTs are still very high and the shortages of power continue to be prevailing in the country. During the 11th Plan, Ministry of Power have introduced various programmes for improvement of energy efficiency and impetus has been given on measures for utilities based demand side management with the objectives of reducing generation capacity, augmentation and strengthening of T&D System. The National Mission on Enhanced Energy Efficiency (NMEEE) was initiated in 2008 under the Nation Action Plan on Climate Change (NACC) with the objective of enhanced energy efficiency by putting in place new initiatives. Perform, Achieve and Trade (PAT) mechanism launched for implementation of NMEEE is a market based mechanism to enhance cost effectiveness for improvement in energy efficiency in nine identified different types of energy intense industries. The main aspects taken into consideration for electricity demand forecasting for 18th EPS are policies/programmes launched by Government of India and states during 11th Plan which would impact on the electricity demand in. domestic, commercial and industrial categories of consumption. The state authorities in their programmes submitted to CEA have worked out projections after considering the effects of implementation of such policies/programmes. Methodology Partial End Use methodology (PEUM), a combination of time series analysis and End Use Method is a proven method for demand forecasting and has been used for earlier EPS by CEA. In line with directions of EPSC, PEUM has been used to forecast electricity demand for 18th EPS. The time series method has been used to derive growth indicators giving higher weightage to recent trend so as to incorporate benefits of energy conservation initiatives and new technologies. The input data for period 2003-04 to 2009-10 was scrutinized for EPS. The year-wise and Statewise/UT-wise electricity energy requirement has been worked out up to end of 13th Plan (2021-22) on the basis of data for year 2009-10 which is taken as base year after adding one time shortages to electrical energy available. The 18th EPS has conducted short/medium term forecast for next 10 years viz. 12th Plan and 13th Plan period so as to facilitate the states/ file:////server/Prasan/STORIES_2011/December/Dec%203...ts/18th%20Electric%20Power%20Survey%20of%20India.htm (2 of 7)12/30/2011 6:24:52 PM

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utilities to achieve their programme for growth of demand, T&D losses reduction, augmenting of T&D system. The forecast covers demand for various categories of consumption viz. Domestic, Commercial, Public Lighting, Public Water Works, Irrigation, Industrial (LT, HT less than 1 MW each, HT 1 MW and above each), Railway Traction & Bulk Non-Industrial HT Supply. The long term projections cover the made forecast for terminal years of 14th Plan and 15th Plan period. O v e rv i e w o f P r o j e c t i o n s o f 1 8 t h E P S According to 18th EPS the All India energy requirements in 2016-17 is assessed to be 1354.58 BU as against forecast of 1392.06 BU as per 17th EPS. The peak power demand in 2016-17 is assessed to be 199540 MW as against 218209 MW estimated as per 17th EPS. The State-wise/UTwise/region-wise and All India details of short-term projections' of energy requirements by end of 12th Plan (2016-17) and 13th Plan (2021-22) and the long-term projections of energy requirements by end of 14th Plan (2026-27) and 15th Plan (2031-32) are given in Annex-I The short-term peak load demand projections by end of 12th Plan (2016-17) & 13th Plan (2021-22) and the long-term projections of peak load by end of 14th Plan (2026-27) and 15th Plan (2031-32) are given in Annex-II. Table 1.1 indicates, Region wise short-term forecast of energy requirements of peak load for the end of 12th Plan (2016-17) and 13th Plan (202122)as well as for long term forecast for terminal years of 14th Plan (2026-27) and 15th Plan (2031-32). Table 1.1 R e g i o n w i s e s u m m a r y o f p r o j e c t i o n s f o r En e r g y R e q u i r e m e n t s ( M U ) a n d P e a k L o a d (M W ) Year / Region/ All India

20 1 6 -1 7

2 0 2 1 -2 2

2 0 2 6 -2 7

2 0 3 1 -3 2

Northern

Energy Requirement (MUs) 422498

Peak Load (MW) 60934







Western

394188

62015

539310

86054

757318

120620

1028974

163222

Southern Eastern North-Eastern

357826 163790 16154

57221 24303 2966

510786 236952 23244

82199 35928 4056

727913 349412 33952

118764 53053 6169

1017526 480046 46921

165336 72874 8450

A l l In d i a

13 5 4 8 7 4

199540 1904861

283470 2710058

4 0 0 7 05 3 7 1 0 0 8 3

5 4 1 8 23

The year-wise forecast of energy requirement during 12l Plan period is given below in Table 1.2. Table 1.2 E n e r g y Re q u i r e m e n t ( M U s ) Region/All I n d ia Northern Region

2 0 11 -1 2 2 0 1 2 -1 3 2 01 3 -1 4 271301 297350 324206

2 0 1 4-1 5 353738

2 0 1 5 -16 386382

2 0 1 6 -1 7 422498

Western Region Southern Region

271453 242729

291608 260865

313465 280709

337289 301823

362901 324033

394188 357826

Eastern Region

106086

119893

129725

140637

151668

163790

North-Eastern Region

10706

11624

12621

13703

14878

16154

A l l In d i a

9 2 79 3 1 9 9 9 3 7 8 1 07 6 3 2 7 1 1 5 92 0 1 1 2 4 8 4 56 1 3 5 4 8 7 4

T r a n s m i s s i o n & D i s t r i b u t i o n ( T& D ) L o s s e s : According to 18th EPS, the All India Transmission & Distribution Losses for the base year 2009-10 are 25.36%. Based on the of consultations with State utilities/SERCs regarding their strategy and the steps being taken to reduce the T&D losses, it is expected that the All India T&D losses could be reduced to 18.90% by the end of 12th Plan which could further be brought down to 15.39% by the end of 13th Plan. The states which have performed well are expected to reduce the T&D Losses to around 15% by the end of 12th Plan whereas the poorly performing states which have yet to implement the upgradation of infrastructure for T&D system may be in a position to reduce losses to around 15%> by the end of 13th Plan. The region wise information regarding expected T&D Losses by the end of 12th & 13th Plans are given below in Table 1.4. Table 1.4 R e g i o n -w i s e T & D L o s s e s (% ) Re g i o n /A l l In d i a

2 0 16 -1 7 2 0 2 1 -2 2

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Northern Region Western Region

20.13 19.12

16.12 14.91

Southern Region Eastern Region

16.78 19.36

15.44 14.22


22.71

18.65

A l l In d i a

1 8 .9 0

1 5 .3 9

E n e r g y r e q u i r e m e n t s d u r i n g 1 2 P l a n a n d 1 3 Pl a n p e r i o d : The forecast of All India Energy Consumption, Energy Requirements, T&D Losses and for 2011-12 and terminal years of 12th 13th & 14th Plans as per 18th EPS are given in Table 1.5 below: Table 1.5

Energy Consumption (MUs) Energy Requirement (MUs) T&D Losses (MUs) & (%)

2 0 11 -1 2 2 0 16 -1 7 2 0 21 -2 2 694304 1098995 1611809

904012

1354874 1904861

209708

255879

293052

(23.20)

(18.90)

(15.38)

The year-wise all India category-wise forecast of energy consumption, energy requirements, peak load T&D losses and load factor for 12th & 13th Plan period is given in Annex-Ill. P a t t e r n o f U t i l i za t i o n o f e l e c t r i c i t y The study of the pattern of utilization of electricity for 2009-10 indicates that the major part of consumption viz 35.34% is for the industrial category followed by 25.07% in domestic category whereas in the irrigation category the utilization is 21.02% and in commercial category the utilization is 10.16% and the remaining 8.40% is on account of consumption in other categories. The results of 18th EPS indicate that by the end of 12th Plan, the trends is likely to marginally change and increase in the pattern utilization in domestic and commercial categories is anticipated whereas marginal decrease in the consumption in the irrigation category is expected. The summary of the All India pattern of utilization in the major categories of consumption is given below in Table 1.7: Table 1.7 A H I n d i a C a t e g o r y w i s e P a t t e r n o f U t i l i za t i o n ( % ) Ca te go ry Domestic Commercial

2 00 9-1 0 2 01 1-12 2 01 6-1 7 2 02 1-22 25.07 25.15 26.38 26.44 10.16 10.22 10.60 11.52

Irrigation Industries

21.02 35.34

20.47 35.31

18.96 35.79

17.86 36.35

Others

8.41

8.84

8.02

7.23

B r e a k -u p o f R u r a l a n d U r b a n E le c t r i c i t y c o n s u m p t i o n :During the consultation with the State utilities most of the states indicated that separate feeders for meeting the rural & urban load requirements are not being provided. The information on the consumption in urban and rural areas have been submitted by a few states. Based on the available data and the details of consumption in respect of domestic, commercial categories, the pattern of utilization in rural and urban areas has been worked out. For this purpose the consumption in agriculture/irrigation is treated to be rural category. The Region wise anticipated break-up of Urban (domestic, commercial) consumption and Rural consumption (domestic, commercial & rural) by the end of 12 Plan (2016-17) is indicated in Table 1.8. Table 1.8


Subject

Re g i o n /A l l In d i a Northern Region Western Region

Urban (% ) 44.55 31.23

Rural (%) 55.45 68.77

Southern Region Eastern Region

40.91 61.64

59.09 38.36


60.87

39.13

A l l In d i a

4 1 .2 4

5 8 .7 6

According to the EPS results on All India basis, the rural electricity consumption is likely to marginally decline from 60.89% in 2009-10 to 58.76% by the end of 12th Plan 2016-17. Annex ure - I 1 8 t h E l e c t r i c P ow e r S u rv e y L o n g T e r m F o r e c a s t o f E l e c t r i c a l E n er g y R e q ui r e m e n t a t P o w e r S t a t i o n B u s B a r s i n M U s ( U t i l i t i e s O n l y) St a t e /U t s Delhi

2 0 1 1 -1 2 2 0 1 6-1 7 27142 37529

2 0 2 1 -22 52930

2 0 2 6 -2 7 73827

2 0 3 1 -3 2 99649

Haryana

36575

56681

78586

110915

150083

Himachal Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir

8535 12504

10901 16298

14514 21884

19198 31110

25096 43075

Punjab

46300

69410

86941

108835

136243

Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh Uttrakhand

49859 78984 9722

77907 138854 12751

110483 209046 16774

161741 308887 22438

226014 420829 29733

Chandigarh

1681

2165

2842

3719

4821

N o r t h e r n Re g i o n Goa

2 7 1 3 0 1 4 2 2 49 8 3391 4853

5 9 4 0 00 6837

840670 9442

1135543 12617

Gujarat Chhattisgarh

74229 16304

108704 24222

153582 34106

218610 46979

301160 62620

Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra

49878 120856

77953 169353

107060 225606

155489 310654

213539 417826

D. & N. Haveli Daman & Diu

4682 2114

6286 2817

8413 3706

11164 4980

14676 6536

We s t e r n Re g i o n Andhra Pradesh Karnataka

2 7 1 4 5 3 3 9 4 18 8 85358 129767 53523 78637

5 3 9 3 10 191912 108012

757318 284776 147941

1028974 412903 200736

Kerala Tamil Nadu

19867 82335

26584 119251

34691 171718

46049 244703

61125 337491

Pudducherry

2828

3586

4452

4444

5271

So u t h e r n Re g i o n Bihar Jharkhand

2 4 3 9 1 2 3 5 7 82 6 15015 29447 19905 27691

5 1 0 7 86 52975 37482

727913 91733 51512

1017526 131219 69475

Orissa

25004

35772

42566

54565

70154

West Bengal Sikkim

45774 389

70352 528

103283 645

150704 898

207948 1250

Ea s t e r n Re g i on Assam Manipur

1 0 6 0 8 6 1 6 3 79 0 6081 8947 615 1241

2 3 6 9 52 12699 2219

349412 18107 3881

480046 25224 5416

Meghalaya

1817

2243

3029

4206

5651

Nagaiand Tripura

620 930

834 1402

1163 2026

1728 2892

2373 3921

Arunachal Pradesh Mizoram

435 455

552 936

721 1388

1085 2053

1489 2847

North Eastern Region

10953

1 6 1 54

23244

33952

46921


Subject

Andman & Nicobar Lakshadweep

267 41

366 52

505 65

709 84

963 110

A l l In d i a

9 0 4 0 1 2 1 3 5 48 7 4 1 9 0 4 86 1 2 7 1 0 0 5 8 3 7 1 0 0 8 3

Annex ure - II 1 8 t h E l e c t r i c P ow e r S u rv e y L o n g T e r m F o r e c a s t o f P e a k E l e c t r i c L o a d a t P o w e r S t a t i o n B u s B a r s i n M W (U t i l i t i e s Only) St a t e /U t s Delhi Haryana

2 0 1 1 -1 2 2 0 1 6-1 7 2 0 2 1 -2 2 2 0 26 -2 7 2 0 3 1 -3 2 4770 6398 9024 12681 17246 6376 10273 14244 20103 27202

Himachal Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir

1335 1802

1900 2687

2589 4217

3424 5996

4476 8302

Punjab

8363

12342

14552

18352

23144

Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh

8097 12021

13886 23081

19692 36061

28828 53690

40284 73708

Uttrakhand Chandigarh

1656 336

2189 426

2901 559

3911 732

5222 948

Nort hern Region Goa

37265 530

6 0 9 34 815

86461 1192

1 2 19 7 9 1 6 4 2 3 6 1658 2216

Gujarat Chhattisgarh

11556 3155

19091 4687

26973 6599

38691 9090

53301 12116

Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra

8897 18398

13904 28645

18802 39622

27519 54982

38088 74528

D. & N. Haveli

640

944

1297

1733

2294

Daman & Diu

308

441

605

818

1082

We s t e r n Re g i o n Andhra Pradesh Karnataka

39351 14122 8545

6 2 0 15 22445 13010

86054 33194 18403

1 2 06 2 0 1 6 3 2 2 2 51601 74818 25396 34720

Kerala Tamil Nadu

3489 12271

4669 20816

6093 29975

8150 43044

10903 59827

Pudducherry

497

630

782

787

940

So u t h e r n Re g i o n Bihar Jharkhand

36175 2226 3201

5 7 2 21 5018 4616

82199 9306 6341

1 1 87 6 4 1 6 5 3 3 6 16239 23411 8780 11930

Orissa

3964

5672

6749

8712

11280

West Bengal Sikkim

7454 106

11793 144

17703 176

26027 245

36187 341

Ea s t e r n Re g i on Assam Manipur

15122 1257 171

2 4 3 03 1817 346

35928 2534 497

5 3 05 3 3613 869

72874 5033 1212

Meghalaya

361

445

596

828

1112

Nagaland

130

185

271

403

554

Tripura Arunachal Pradesh

239 88

340 135

472 177

674 266

913 365

Mizoram

160

285

352

521

723

North Eastern Region Andaman & Nicobar Lakshadweep

2021

2966

4056

6 1 69

8450

51 7

67 11

89 18

125 23

172 30

A l l In d i a

1 2 4 9 9 5 1 9 9 54 0 2 8 3 4 7 0 4 0 07 0 5 5 4 1 8 2 3

Annex ure - III All India


Subject

18T H ELECTRIC POWER SURVEY FORECAST ENERGY CONSUMPTI ON ,ENERGY REQUIREMENT AND PEAK LOAD CATEGORY WISE & YEAR WISE SUMMERY OF FORECAST Energy Consumption in MUs Consumption Categories Domestic

2 01 1-1 2 2 01 2-1 3 2 01 3-1 4 2 01 4-1 5 2 01 5-1 6 2 01 6-1 7 2 01 7-1 8 2 01 8-1 9 2 01 9-2 0 2 02 0-2 1 2 02 1-2 2 174634

193571

214189

237347

262202

289924

315335

339762

366224

394939

426148

Commercial & Misc.

70929

78308

86494

95497

105472

116535

128099

140506

154153

169173

185722

Public lighting Public Water Works

6971 17532

7492 18927

8054 20436

8661 22064

9315 23829

10021 25742

10675 27651

11315 29592

11995 31677

12718 33918

13488 36329

Irrigation

142152

154010

166425

179784

194559

210611

225044

239194

254338

270524

287926

Industries LT Industries HT Railway traction

47339 197852 14374

52722 219607 15339

57977 240057 16437

63721 262437 17489

70010 286699 18635

76898 316408 19832

84096 339228 21055

91626 367341 22353

99714 397991 23714

108480 431358 25232

117984 467835 26810

Bulk Supply Total (Energy Consumption)

22521 694304

24288 764263

26154 836224

28247 915249

30523 33024 35759 38754 42027 45622 49566 1001244 1098995 1186942 1280444 1381833 1491963 1611809

T&D losses -ML)

209708

220480

229347

238357

246836

T&D Losses in % Energy Requirement - Ml

23.20 904012

22.39 984743

21.52 20.66 19.78 18.89 18.20 17.50 16.80 16.09 15.38 1065571 1153606 1248081 1354874 1450982 1552008 1660783 1778109 1904861

Annual Load Factor - % Peak Load - MW

81.28 126959

80.48 139682

79.85 152329

79.21 166260

78.29 181988

255879

77.51 199540

264040

77.37 214093


271564

77.21 229465

278950

77.05 246068

286145

76.87 264041

293052

76.71 283470

18th Electric Power Survey of India

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