International Journal of Accounting and Financial Management Research (IJAFMR) ISSN 2249-6882 Vol. 3, Issue 1, Mar 2013, 201-210 © TJPRC Pvt. Ltd.
MOON AND MARKET: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON EFFECT OF MOVEMENT OF MOON ON BSE SENSEX 1
2
PINKAL SHAH & JAYDIP CHAUDHRI 1
Assistant Professor, The School of Management, Sumandeepvidyapeeth (Deemed University), Vadodara, Gujarat, India 2
Associate Professor, Department of Business & Industrial Management, Veer Narmad South Gujarat University, Surat, Gujarat, India
ABSTRACT The research paper has its place to the area of Financial Astrology, an uncharted method of security analysis. Stock market always remains an attractive and challenging investment avenue amongst the investors’ fraternity. An Indian stock market has witnessed marvelous growth and development in the last decade. Investors are mainly adopting fundamental analysis and/or technical analysis as an approach of security analysis in managing their investment in stock market. However, both the approaches fail to determine proper timing of entry and exit from trade so that maximum profits are earned or loss is minimized. So, financial astrology, which deals with prediction of prices of stocks/index based on planetary positions, answers on this issue. The present study investigates the relationship between movement of BSE SENSEX and movement of Moon into different signs into zodiac as per Indian Vedic Astrology. This study is based on historical data analysis from January 1993 to December 2010. This research paper is an attempt to find out Significant Bullish and Bearish effect of conjunction between Moon with 12 different zodiac signs. The findings of the study may be helpful in taking buying or selling position in different trend of stock market based on financial astrology. It also gives new dimension of researches on lunar effect on stock returns.
KEYWORDS: Financial Astrology, Security Analysis, Stock Market Astrology, Financial Anomalies, Lunar Effect INTRODUCTION Investment plays an important role in any growth and development of economy. It is also considered as lifeblood for economic system while financial market is considered as blood-vessel for economic system as it facilitates transformation of saving into investment, which later on gets converted to production and consumption. Any organized and efficient financial market provides different alternatives for prospective investors to invest their saving in monetary form. These alternatives of investment are classified into following two categories viz. Risk free investment alternatives &Risky investment alternatives.Investment in equity shares of different company through stock exchanges, commonlyrecognized as investment in stock market is a prominent and widely acceptable alternative in category of risky investment. Since, investment in share market is a part of risky investment alternatives, investors have to follow the scientific approach of security analysis which is part of investment management process. Therefore, prediction of share prices for future time frame with expected risk and returnis the key to trade in stock market. However, predictions about investment decisions in stock market are always challenging as stock prices are fluctuating every second and there are many factors which influence these fluctuations. Therefore, share price prediction always remains as an area of interest amongst investors and researchers. There are different approaches of security analysis for prediction. In real life situation, fundamental analysis and technical analysis are two popular approaches to prediction of share prices. The fundamental analysis mainly answers
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as to which stocks should be bought or sold for long period of time. It is based on fundamental factors related with economy, industry and company affecting share price movement. Technical analysis mainlydeals with the price at which one should enter into the trade and exit the trade with stop loss based on statistical analysis of historical data of share price and its charting pattern. But principles of both the theories fail to determine proper timing of entry and exit from trade so that maximum profits are earned or loss is minimized. However, financial astrology answers this issue.
ABOUT FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY Financial astrology is part of a broad area of astrology. Astrology is an art and applied science which deals with influence of astronomical phenomena and events on happening of individual behavior as well as different social, cultural, economic and political affairs of the world. It predicts prices in stocks or commodities or foreign exchange price based on situation of planets, stars and signs. It measures the various aspects made by astronomical entities and correlates them to the price movement in markets. It uses astronomical facts to explain and forecast the behavior of the financial markets. It is a tool which suggests at what time one should take the buy or sell position. It also suggests the trend of prices in future at any period of time. Thus, it also gives us a very advanced indication of trend and trend reversal in prices of shares. For example, if someone asks the question that what will be the price of Reliance Industries Ltd (listed company of Indian Stock Market) after two years from now, fundamental analysis may give answers by its way of valuation of company. However, it is unable to answer the level at which one should enter and exit the trade in Reliance Industries Ltd with stop loss position. This may be answered by technical analyst. Even fundamental analysis predicts the price for longer period of time effectively say at least more than 3 months. It is unable to predict price movement of share for a day or week. Technical analysis may overcome this limitation of fundamental analysis by predicting share price even for next 1 hour. But if someone asks the question that what will be the trend in price of Reliance Industries Ltd (Listed Company of Indian Stock Market) between January 2020 and March 2020, none of the approach except financial astrology answers this question. Even financial astrology is used by western countries to filter the trading call from technical analysis. The theory of financial astrology is comparatively popular and followed by investors’ fraternity in western countries as one of the approach in security analysis. It is based on principles of western astrology which has its origin in 17 th century i.e. it is merely a 300 year old discipline. However, the root of financial astrology lies in our ancient Vedas thousands of years ago. The astrological principles derived from our ancient Vedas are also known as Vedic Astrology across the globe which is considered as a far superior and scie ntific approach than western astrology. The following Chart No. 1 explains the grass root of fi nancial astrology.
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MOON & STOCK MARKET There are many evidences that empirically criticize the efficient market hypothesis and prove that calendar/seasonal anomalies exist in the stock market return and volatility across the world. It signifies that stock price movements are not random. There are number of researches done to check lunar effect on stock return across the globe and time to time. These literatures are evidence for that the stock return as well as volatility is influenced by lunar effect i.e. position of moon. It should be noted that in majority of these researchers consider movement of moon in context of full moon to no moon positions and its impact on daily return. However, there are no evidences in which conjunctions of moon with different zodiac signs were taken into account. In this research, an attempt is made to identify the effect of conjunctions of moon with different zodiac signs as per Indian Vedic Astrology and its impact on price movement in stock market. It should be noted that there are twelve different zodiac signs listed in (below table no. 1), and it will take 2.25 days for moon to transit from one sign to next sign in the zodiac. In the process of transition from one sign to other, moon also makes a combination with other planets into same zodiac signs. The list of planets as per Indian Vedic Astrology is listed below in table Researcher made efforts to identify significant the combination of mo on with zodiac signs & combination of moon with other planet into z odiac sign. List of Planets & Zodiac Signs
Sr. No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Name of Planet Sun Moon Mars Mercury Jupiter Venus Saturn
8
Dragon Head (Rahu)
9
Dragon Tail (Ketu)
Sr. No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Name of Zodiac Sign Aries Taurus Gemini Cancer Leo Virgo Libra Scorpio Sagittarius Capricorn Aquarius Pisces
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Research Design The research design for the present study is of exploratory type. In this study, an attempt is made to explore new knowledge in a comparative highly uncharted area of f inancial astrology. Objectives •
To study the effect of transit of moon in different zodiac signs as per Vedic Astrology on overall price movement of Indian Equity Market.
Hypothesis of Research
H0 (I)
:
H0 (II)
:
The conjunction of moon with/without zodiac signs and daily price movement during the same period are independent events. There is no significant difference between the average of daily positive return and the average of daily negative return.
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Data Collection The data collected for this research are secondary in nature. For this research work, historical data of price movement in Indian equity market were collected from ACE – Data Base & Software of Technical Analysis, developed by Spider Software Ltd, Mumbai. The historical data of transit of moon into different zodiac signs as per Vedic astrology from January 1993 to December 2010 (18 Years) have been used which were collected from “Panchang” – Hindu Vedic Calendar, published by Prophet 2006 - A c omplete Indian Vedic Astrology Software. Sampling The population for the present study is closing price of all listed companies available for trading in stock market belonging to different sectors from its listing date. However, the over all movement of different sectors in can be represented by equity index. Therefore, Closing price of BSE SENSEX from January 1993 to December 2010 is taken as sample which represents Indian equity market. For the present research, Judgmental or Purposive sampling method is used. Reliability and Validity of Data Reliability of the collected data was established by cross verifying to its other sources. Panchang Data collected through Astro-Prophet software were verified with “SandeshPanchnag” & historical data about price movement collected through Spider ACE software were verified with official website of Bombay Stock Exchange ( www.bseindia.com www.bseindia.com).The ).The data collected as a sample were validated on the ground that BSE SENSEX is the oldest and benchmarked representative index of Indian Equity Market. DATA ANALYSIS The data for the present research was collected from the published sources and hence secondary in nature. The period covered is from January 1993 to December 2010. The data pertains to f ollowing two categories. •
Position of moonwithin the Zodiac Signs as e mbodied in Hindu Panchang
•
Daily prices of BSE SENSEX and representative companies of eight sectors as recorded on the Bombay Stock Exchange The collected data were tested for its reliability and validit y and were found to be satisfactory. The collected data of above mentioned two sets then were compiled by organizing them in the c hronological order
from 1st January 1993 to 31st December 2010 and presented in single table. The daily price fluctuation/movement or daily return in prices was calculated considering the percentage change in the closing stock prices. A total of 108 combinations (i.e. pairs of moon as a single planet and pairs of moon with another one of the planets with different zodiac sign) were structured and then the stock prices are plotted against these combinations for eighteen years under study. Out these 108 c ombinations 101 combinations met statistical d ata sufficiency condition to draw meaningful interference. The combinations were then segregated as per their occurrences during eighteen years. To ascertain whether to use parametric or non-parametric tests for hypothesis testing, the normality check is done by using Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test (KS Test). It was found that all the data are normally distributed. To established relationship between position of moon as single planet and its pair with another one planet with zodiac signs, we should first test strike rate (i.e. percentage of profitable trade) based on daily close and Average Gain to Average Loss Ratio of strike rate.
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The ratio of positive to negative days based on daily closing price was calculated and daily Average Gain to Average Loss ratio was worked out. The chi-square test is applied to find out whether a particular planetary combination is significantly associated with daily price movements of the stocks. Based on outcome of these calculations the final conclusions are drawn as to whether planetar y positions have significant effect on stock prices or not. Those combinations in which P – Value is less that 0.05 are indicating that H 0 (I) is rejected and hence there is significant association between transit of moon and price movement. Two sampled independent T - Test is used on Average Gain to Average Loss ratio. Those combinations in which P – Value is less that 0.05 are indicating that H 0 (II) is rejected and hence there is significant difference exists between average daily positive return and average daily negative return. The Table in annexure no. 1 shows t he summary of data analysis discussed above.
FINDINGS The findings of research show that which different conjunctions are significantly related with price movement and how bullish or bearish impact they have on price movement. The findings also established the intensity of bullishness or bearishness, ranging between moderate, highly significant and excessively significant. Following parameters are used from the outcome statistical analysis and its interpretations to decide influence of conjunction of moon with different zodiac signs during its transit. •
To decide the trend, those conjunctions which are giving average positive return are categorized under bullish and those that are giving average negative return are categorized under bearish.
•
To decide the different level of intensity of bullish or bearish trend ranging between moderate, highly significant and excessively significant, following conditions are set: o
For excessively significant bullish or bearish tr end,
The P Value of T Test &Chi-Square Test must be significant (less than or equal to 0.05), and,
AGAL and Strike Rate must be higher than or equal to 1 and 50% respectively and multiple of AGAL & Strike rate must be higher than or equal to 90.
o
For highly significant bullish or bearish trend,
The P Value of T Test or Chi Square Testmust be significant (less than or equal to 0.05), and,
AGAL and Strike Rate must be higher than or equal to 1 and 50% respectively and multiple of AGAL & Strike rate must be higher than or equal to 90.
o
For moderate bullish or bearish trend,
AGAL and Strike Rate must be higher than or equal to 1 and 50% respectively and multiple of AGAL & Strike rate must be higher than or equal to 90.
As per the above conditions, following findings are drawn based on statistical outcome of data analysis for BSE SENSEX as an representative of Indian Equity Market. BULLISH Excessively Significant Bullish Moon & Mars with Taurus sign Highly Significant Bullish Moon & Venus with Sagittarius sign Moon & Venus with Virgo sign Moon & Venus with Libra sign Moon & Saturn with Virgo sign
BEARISH Excessively Significant Bullish : None Highly Significant Bearish Moon & Mars with Libra sign
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Moderately Bullish Moon & Mars with Virgo sign Moon & Mars with Pisces sign Moon & Mercury with Cancer sign Moon & Jupiter with Aquarius sign Moon & Venus with Sagittarius sign Moon & Venus with Virgo sign Moon & Venus with Scorpio sign Moon &Rahu with Taurus sign Moon &Ketu with Sagittarius sign Sun & Moon with Virgo sign Sun & Moon with Pisces sign Sun & Moon with Leo sign Sun & Moon with Scorpio sign Sun & Moon with Taurus sign
Moderatelybearish Moon & Mars with Sagittarius sign Moon & Mars with Capricorn sign Moon & Mercury with Libra sign Moon & Mercury with Taurus sign
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ANNEXURE Table Showing Summary of Statistical Value of Transition of Moon into Zodic Signs ANNEXURE - I : STATISTICAL VALUE OF FOR TRANSIT OF MOON INTO ZODIAC SIGNS Strike P-Value of Chi- P-Value of Name of Moon Combinations AGAL Rate Square Test T- Test Moon With Sagittarius 53.95 1.02 0.246 0.873 Moon With Virgo 57.07 0.92 0.055 0.538 Moon With Cancer 49.03 1.06 0.81 0.636 Moon With Aquarius 54.14 1.09 0.265 0.479 Moon With Capricorn 52.2 1.04 0.53 0.777 Moon With Aries 48.17 1.24 0.613 0.15 Moon With Pisces 46.91 1.16 0.389 0.33 Moon With Gemini 52.85 1.13 0.428 0.324 Moon With Leo 55.15 1.14 0.186 0.371 Moon With Libra 47 1.19 0.396 0.168 Moon With Scorpio 53.52 0.96 0.304 0.739 Moon With Taurus 56.12 0.98 0.086 0.875 Mars With Sagittarius 54.55 1.05 0.34 0.779 Sun & Moon With Sagittarius 60 0.67 0.655 0.603
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Sun & Moon With Virgo Sun & Moon With Cancer Sun & Moon With Aquarius Sun & Moon With Capricorn Sun & Moon With Pisces Sun & Moon With Gemini Sun & Moon With Leo Sun & Moon With Libra Sun & Moon With Scorpio Sun & Moon With Taurus Moon & Mars With Sagittarius Moon & Mars With Virgo Moon & Mars With Cancer Moon & Mars With Aquarius Moon & Mars With Capricorn Moon & Mars With Aries Moon & Mars With Pisces Moon & Mars With Gemini Moon & Mars With Leo Moon & Mars With Libra Moon & Mars With Scorpio Moon & Mars With Taurus Moon & Mercury With Sagittarius Moon & Mercury With Virgo Moon & Mercury With Cancer Moon & Mercury With Aquarius Moon & Mercury With Capricorn Moon & Mercury With Aries Moon & Mercury With Gemini Moon & Mercury With Libra Moon & Mercury With Scorpio Moon & Mercury With Taurus Moon & Jupiter With Sagittarius Moon & Jupiter With Virgo Moon & Jupiter With Cancer Moon & Jupiter With Aquarius Moon & Jupiter With Capricorn Moon & Jupiter With Aries Moon & Jupiter With Pisces Moon & Jupiter With Gemini Moon & Jupiter With Leo Moon & Jupiter With Libra Moon & Jupiter With Scorpio Moon & Venus With Sagittarius Moon & Venus With Virgo Moon & Venus With Cancer Moon & Venus With Aquarius Moon & Venus With Capricorn Moon & Venus With Aries Moon & Venus With Pisces Moon & Venus With Gemini Moon & Venus With Leo Moon & Venus With Libra Moon & Venus With Scorpio Moon & Venus With Taurus Moon & Saturn With Virgo Moon & Saturn With Cancer Moon & Saturn With Aquarius
Table 1:Contd., 71.43 1.46 63.64 1.13 42.86 1.52 50 1.32 66.67 2.5 57.14 1.47 62.5 1.72 66.67 0.63 66.67 2.82 54.55 1.71 58.33 4.61 66.67 1.39 55.88 1.27 74.07 0.91 64.29 1.65 50 1.23 77.78 1.95 55.56 0.96 60 0.86 52.94 1.78 54.55 1.39 78.95 3.99 57.14 1.38 50 1.08 62.5 1.54 66.67 0.81 58.82 0.8 80 0.67 66.67 0.54 50 4.26 70 0.54 80 1.79 66.67 0.75 53.33 0.9 50 1.04 54.55 3.39 50 1.24 55.56 1.28 37.5 1.73 80 0.79 56.25 1.3 56.25 1.09 50 1.34 90 3.22 85.71 1.43 37.5 2.45 44.44 1.35 42.86 2.24 57.14 0.89 53.85 1.04 50 1.32 55.56 1.08 92.31 6.03 71.43 5.24 46.15 1.72 72.73 1.8 61.54 0.81 48.89 1.08
0.257 0.366 0.705 1 0.414 0.593 0.48 0.414 0.414 0.763 0.564 0.317 0.493 0.012 0.285 1 0.096 0.564 0.317 0.808 0.763 0.012 0.705 1 0.48 0.414 0.467 0.18 0.414 1 0.206 0.058 0.046 0.796 1 0.763 1 0.637 0.221 0.18 0.617 0.48 1 0.011 0.008 0.48 0.739 0.705 0.593 0.695 1 0.637 0.002 0.257 0.782 0.033 0.15 0.881
0.651 0.833 0.731 0.655 0.252 0.613 0.495 0.621 0.294 0.28 0.078 0.589 0.395 0.849 0.15 0.619 0.458 0.933 0.635 0.03 0.256 0.003 0.405 0.904 0.316 0.601 0.627 NPC 0.675 0.38 0.534 0.424 0.048 0.828 0.934 0.386 0.649 0.543 0.095 NPC 0.513 0.784 0.074 NPC 0.32 0.569 0.628 0.472 0.7 0.903 0.643 0.901 NPC 0.121 0.215 0.108 0.511 0.695
Moon and Market: an Empirical Study on Effect of Movement of Moon on BSE Sensex
Table 1:Contd., Moon & Saturn With Aries 57.14 0.93 0.593 0.91 Moon & Saturn With Pisces 63.16 1.2 0.251 0.722 Moon & Saturn With Gemini 44.74 1.34 0.516 0.28 Moon & Saturn With Leo 55.56 1.06 0.637 0.889 Moon & Saturn With Taurus 66.67 0.59 0.317 0.03 Moon &Rahu With Sagittarius 56.52 0.95 0.532 0.867 Moon &Rahu With Virgo 56.52 1.32 0.532 0.459 Moon &Rahu With Cancer 59.09 1.14 0.394 0.67 Moon &Rahu With Aquarius 43.48 1.56 0.532 0.392 Moon &Rahu With Capricorn 87.5 0.76 0.003 0.126 Moon &Rahu With Aries 56 1.04 0.549 0.906 Moon &Rahu With Pisces 50 1.55 1 0.356 Moon &Rahu With Gemini 56.25 1.46 0.617 0.45 Moon &Rahu With Leo 53.85 1.43 0.695 0.268 Moon &Rahu With Libra 52 1.04 0.841 0.888 Moon &Rahu With Scorpio 50 1.26 1 0.535 Moon &Rahu With Taurus 73.33 1.36 0.071 0.435 Moon &Ketu With Sagittarius 65.22 1.42 0.144 0.23 Moon &Ketu With Virgo 52.63 1.68 0.819 0.181 Moon &Ketu With Cancer 54.55 1 0.67 0.991 Moon &Ketu With Aquarius 58.82 0.74 0.467 0.603 Moon &Ketu With Capricorn 57.14 1.28 0.45 0.482 Moon &Ketu With Aries 54.55 1.15 0.602 0.515 Moon &Ketu With Gemini 45 1.38 0.655 0.462 Moon &Ketu With Leo 50 1.43 1 0.429 Moon &Ketu With Libra 52 1.04 0.841 0.888 Moon &Ketu With Scorpio 56 0.95 0.549 0.881 Moon &Ketu With Taurus 60 0.79 0.371 0.511 N.A. = Not Applicable, N.P.C. = Not Possible to Calculate||P- Value is Significant @ 5% Tolerance Limit ||||Calculated in SPSS 17
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