LMK-2016-RM Novaes K

Solving challenges.™

Modelado Integrado de Planes de Desarrollo y Estrategia de Producción en ambientes de Alto Riesgo

© 2015 HALLIBURTON. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

What is Uncertainty?


Integrated Decision Process – Key Elements The ultimate purpose of decision analysis is to help decision makers make better decisions. ▌ Seamlessly integrate between the projects’ technical analyses and their economic evaluation.

▌ Careful integration of geological, engineering, economics, and fiscal modeling - all in the

context of the firm’s strategic objectives. ▌ Applicatio Application n of portfolio management management concepts concepts towards the business decisions.

▌ Integrate business strategy and capital allocation to improve overall performance.


Solving challenges.™

Landmark Customer Value Proposition:

ac e “End t o e n d s u i t e o f s o l u t i o n s b a s e d o n a s i n g l e s u b s u r f ac r e p r e s en en t a t i o n , f o r m o r e a c c u r a t e a n d f a s t e r r e s e r v o i r d e c i s i o n s , d e l i v e r ed ed o n a s i n g l e en en t e r p r i s e p l a t f o r m ”


E&P Cash Flow Lifecycle

Production Challenges:

Development Challenges:

• • •

Exploration Challenges:

• • •


Basin Knowledgement; Increase Reserves; Minimize Risks;

Optimal Production Strategy; Fast Pay-Out; Operation efficiency

• • •

Maximize Recovery; Extend Economic life; Efficiency;

Landmark E&P Lifecycle Management Ecosystem DS Platform & Ecosystem

Production History Matching Integration, Automation, Optimization, Risk & Uncertainty Analysis

Field Development Plan Petroleum System Migration modeling

Real Time Centers Decision

Well, Completion Planning & Simulation

Geophysical data Processing & Interpretation

Reservoir Flow Simulation

From Time to Depth: Velocity Model

Economic Analysis Cash Flow Model Loop

Geological Interpretation and Modeling

Migration History Matching


Drilling, Postdrill Review, & Monitoring

Volumetric Uncertainty Analysis

Production Monitoring & Optimization

Expand Portfolio 

Petroleum migration and reservoir filling



Rock and fluid alteration



Dynamic migration simulation



Migration history match



Expand portfolio – Minimal Volume – Geologic Risk – Chance of Success – Portfolio optimization


DS Geoscience: From Geophysical into Geological world All-in-one integration and multi-user collaboration tools


Reservoir Modeling Workflow Exploratory Data Analysis

Structural Framework

Stratigraphic Model

Facies Model Facies Model

History Matching Analysis

OpenWorks

History Prediction

Upscaling - Simulation GridProbe, PowerGrid, Nexus

Post Processing & Uncertainty

P10 P50 P90 © 2015 HALLIBURTON. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Petrophysical Model P10 P50 P90

Integration & Operational Efficiency

DecisionSpace® Drilling & Completion

Real Time Service Company

Planning & Engineering

High Science Geomechanics

Well path

Casing

Drilling

*WITS/WITSML DrillWorks Collaboration

LWD Mud logging

Audit & Control Max Activity

DS Insite

Zeta

Insite © 2015 HALLIBURTON. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Risks

EDT DecisionSpace

Detect & Predict

s d r a o b h s a D

Completion

Reports & Analytics

Data Analyzer

Governance & Compliance

OpenWells Barrier Assurance

OpenWorks Pressworks EDM

BDIEP

Information & Integration Foundation 3º Party

Nexus - Next generation simulators


Traditional Decision Process – Economic analysis


Palantir & Landmark Solutions 

Founded in 2002



Products:

–









Production and economic

PalantirCASH, PalantirPLAN, PalantirRESOURCE, PalantirRESERVES, PalantirFINANCIALS, PalantirDATAFLOW

120 employees with locations in Aberdeen, Bangalore, Calgary, Houston, London, Perth, Singapore The largest independent provider of integrated economics and planning solutions 40 clients, which include: Occidental, Nexen, Maersk, Apache, Vitol, Tullow Oil, GDF Suez Website: http://www.palantirsolutions.com/


Portfolio planning and optimization

Decision Management: Learn & Efficiency


Landmark Reservoir Surveillance



Collaborative Workflows

• • • • 

Key Performance Monitoring Reservoir Visualization & Analysis Production losses Report & Action Distributions

Over 100 successful projects!


Experience: 100+ Implemented Workflows Reservoir Visualization & Analysis Artificial Lift Smart Production Surveillance KPI Monitoring

Production Optimization Production Losses Well Performance Evaluation Well Test Validation Facility Monitoring

Production Allocation Reporting & Distribution Oil Hauling & Tank Management History Matching Water Flooding Optimization Well Model Update

Integrated Asset Modeling Field Development Planning Virtual Metering


Landmark E&P Lifecycle Management Ecosystem DS Platform & Ecosystem

Production History Matching Integration, Automation, Optimization, Risk & Uncertainty Analysis

Field Development Plan Petroleum System Migration modeling

Real Time Centers Decision

Well, Completion Planning & Simulation

Geophysical data Processing & Interpretation

Reservoir Flow Simulation

From Time to Depth: Velocity Model

Economic Analysis Cash Flow Model Loop

Geological Interpretation and Modeling

Migration History Matching


Drilling, Postdrill Review, & Monitoring

Volumetric Uncertainty Analysis

Production Monitoring & Optimization

Landmark Reservoir Management Provide a robust software workflow for optimizing the lifecycle of an asset 

Determine facility effects on reservoir deliverability



Examine model sensitivities and capture development risk



Improve speed of decision-making through automation and analysis


Traditional Decision Process – Dynamic Simulators


How Nexus is like other reservoir simulators 

Black oil and compositional fluid types



Single and dual porosity rock models



Fully implicit and IMPES timestepping



Multiple



grid input formats (DS Earth Modeling VDB, RESCUE, …)

Radial and Cartesian local grid refinements which can be activated and deactivated during the run



Polymer flooding with shear thinning/thickening



Non-Darcy flow in wells and in the simulator grid

– – 

Velocity-dependent gas flow

Knudsen diffusion

Single and multi-component adsorption/desorption


Traditional Decision Process – Facilities Simulators


Unified, fully coupled surface and subsurface modeling 









Simultaneous solution of reservoir and network Fully-implicit coupling for surface Easy creation of pipelines and gathering centers

Various two-phase flow correlations available for network modeling, as well as tabular hydraulics methods Flexible well management scripting: procedures which inform Nexus how to operate the field based upon current results


Intuitive visualization of the surface network 

Nexus SurfNet provides insight into network

–

View the entire network, or any subset from perfs to sales point

– Analyze network bottlenecks – Create high-quality charts and documents 

Create network framework for use as Nexus input

–

User can build and save the structure of the network

–

Network can then be imported into the SimDataStudio model builder


Nexus multi-reservoir runs: from one reservoir to many 

Nexus multi-reservoir workflow retains the integrity of individual models

– Build each reservoir model individually – Perform history match – Add private surface network to each model – Perform initial predictions – Build multi-reservoir model with shared network, including each of the individual reservoir models

without modification

– 

Run multi-reservoir predictions

Production use in cases with 10+ reservoirs sharing a network


Complex well modeling 

Wells are treated as multi-segmented

– Accurate hydraulics – 

Stable computation

Realistic completions and well configurations

–

Multi-lateral and other branched wells with proper fluid mixing

–

Configure simple wells, cased wells, tubing/annulus strings

–

Modeled wellbores can contain ICDs, ICVs, and ESPs



Users can accurately represent and simulate complex completions



New link to NETool: build completion in NETool, export matching Nexus input


Modeling of Complex Completion and ICDs What Netool Does 







A Steady-State Near Wellbore and Completion Hydraulics Simulator Designed to model in detail production section of the well with a simplified modeling of reservoir inflow Address potential production problems Troubleshoot poorly performing wells


Gas/Water Coning Control

Dual porosity and beyond: multiple porosity types 



Nexus models multiple porosities sharing the same physical location Can be used to model hydraulic and natural fractured systems, and vuggy carbonates


Nexus Shale Reservoir Simulation 

Unstructured Grid



Undefined gridding capability



Multi-component porosity and permeability capabilities

– Natural fractures – Matrix perm – Kerogen perm – Micro fracture perm © 2015 HALLIBURTON. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Nexus - Performance


Nexus Performance


Parallel scalability builds on already good performance


Field Development Plan & Production Strategy


Better Decision Making, Better Results TRADITIONAL APPROACH 

Cannot evaluate total asset until late in the process



Not Collaborative, operating in silos



Only possible to evaluate 2 or 3 scenarios



Often results in sub-optimal Decisions

Current workflows Serial/linear in nature little opportunity to make input/data changes throughout the workflow –


Better Decision Making, Better Results TRADITIONAL APPROACH 

Cannot evaluate total asset until late in the process



Not Collaborative, operating in silos



Only possible to evaluate 2 or 3 scenarios



Often results in sub-optimal Decisions

Current workflows Serial/linear in nature little opportunity to make input/data changes throughout the workflow –

NEW APPROACH •

•

•

•

•

Iterative and flexible process Robust framework to evaluate total asset early in the process

New workflow

Framework enables many scenarios to be evaluated rapidly

Multiple domain Risk and scenario analysis Optimization technology

Achieve optimal decisions based on business objectives Traceable and Repeatable workflow


Multiple domain risk and scenario analysis STATE UNCERTAINTIES

OBJECTIVE

• • • • •

Maximize recovery/NPV at a risk tolerance

•

DECISIONS & CONSTRAINTS

) Case 7 M M Case 2 $ ( V P N 1000

800

Scenario 1

Case 6

600

200

• •

0

100

200

300

•

Ad hoc (case study) Uncertainty Stochastic simulation Optimization Neural Network Experimental design •

•

0

400

Iteration / Case


•

•

400

IRR, $$, OIL

•

Wells Ownership Facilities Strategy Scheduling Investment Sizing

PROCESS Scenario 2

Risk

•

•

Hurdle rate y t i l i b a b o r P

•

Volume Productivity Compartmentalization Properties Costs Rig availability

500

• •

What Decision Management System does…. DMS combines Simulation tools…with...Optimization & Uncertainty technology in an

Open and Adaptable framework. 

Optimization

• • • •

Forward Modeling

(SPE paper 84239)

Well Planning Optimization

(SPE paper 96986)

Facilities Planning

(SPE paper 95528)

Assisted History Matching

(SPE paper 101933)



Uncertainty Analysis



Optimization with Uncertainty

•

(SPE paper 79703)

Portfolio Optimization

Input parameters Optimizer, Uncert Driver

Simulator 1

DMS Responses


(SPE paper 90177)

Simulator 2

Decision Management System – Optimization Minimize

f  x 



x sin  x 

Objective vs iteration 350 250 150 50 -50 0 -150 -250 -350


1000

2000

3000

4000

Decision Management System – Optimization


Decision Management System – Uncertainty Analysis


Decision Management System – Stochastic simulation

80000000

60000000

) $ ( V P N n a e M

40000000

20000000

0

-200000...

-400000...

-600000...

2 00 0 00 00

2 50 0 00 00

3 0 00 0 00 0

3 50 0 00 00

4 00 0 00 00

_ I

4 5 00 0 00 0

NPV variance ($)


5 00 0 00 00

5 50 0 00 00

6 0 00 0 00 0

6 50 00 0 . .

DMS - Technology Convergence ▌ Technical Software • •

Eclipse, PETEX Spreadsheet, Nexus

• •

Monte Carlo, Experimental design Latin hypercube, Proxy models

• •

Maximize & Minimize Objective Function

•

Subsurface + Surface + Economics

▌ Uncertainty Analysis ▌ Optimization Techniques ▌ Integrated Solution ▌ Process Automation ▌ High Performance Computing


Landmark Reservoir Management Solutions


Success Sotry


Nexus Evaluation: San Alberto Field Bolivia Improve Reservoir Modelling and Save Time 2015 CASE STUDY

• • • •

Improve simulation time performance Input for pipes, separators, chokes and valves Multi-porosity modelling Full asset modeling in a single package

• • • •

Migrates Eclipse model into Nexus Migrates GAP model into Nexus Nexus Tightly coupled subsurface and surface Parallel Scalability San Alberto Scalability 16.00

14.00

• • •

12.00

6x times faster than Eclipse Integrated modelling in a single package 4x times faster than Eclipse running coupled surfacesubsurface modelling as a single platform

O10.00 I T A R D 8.00 E E P S 6.00

4.00

2.00

0.00 0

2

4

6

8

10

#PROCESSORS


12

14

16

18

DMS Evaluation: San Alberto Field Bolivia Increase Gas Production through Optimized Wells positioning 2014 CASE STUDY

• • • •

Minimizes Gas production uncertainties Improve Total Gas production Decrease Total Water production Improve scenarios evaluation

• • • •

Decision Management System - DMS Risk & Uncertainty analysis Optimal Wells positioning and rates Integrated & Automated evaluation process

•

31% gas production increase from offset wells through optimized positions and rates Total water production decreased by 6% Hundred scenarios evaluated in 5 days

• •


Who to Contact, Where to get more information Kellerman Novaes Regional Business Tech. Lead – Latin America [email protected]

Phone: +54 11 4329 2308 Cell: +54 9 11 58726852

www.halliburton.com/

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