This This spre spread adsh shee eett was was prep prepar ared ed by Prof Profee Rev. Jun. 21, 2012
This spreadsheet supports ST&(*+T analysis of the cas e 'ictoria "he-icals P" /) The Merseyside Proect3 /"ase 24.
ssor Michael J. Schill and Robert . !runer. "opyri#ht $ 200% by the &niversity &niversit y of 'ir#inia 'ir#inia (arden School oundation, oundatio n,
Exhibit 2 '6"T7R6) "8*M6")S /) Frank Greystock's DCF Analysis of Merseyside Project /financial values in -illions of !ritish pounds Assumtions
)nnual 7utput /-etric tons 7utput ;ain<7ri#inal 7utput Price. (eprec. 7ld ;ross Mar#in *ner#y Savin#s
290,000 = .0 : @=9 0 .0 : 12.90: 11.9: 1.29: 0.=9: 0 .0 :
1 Bear +ow 200% 1. *sti-ate of 6ncre-ental ;ross Profit +ew 7utput /tons 2@=,900 ost 7utpu tC tCC" on on st struction /?? ,4 ,4 ?% ?% +ew Sales Sales /Millions 19=.DD +ew ;ross Mar#in Mar#in 1?.%: +ew ;ross Profit Profit 21.=2 7ld 7utpu utputt 7ld Sales 7ld ;ross Profit 6ncr 6ncree-eental ntal ;ros ;rosss Prof Profit it
290, 290,00 000 0 1@%.=9 1D .4 .41 2.?2 2.?2
2. *sti-ate of 6ncre-ental A6P inventory +ew A6P A6P inventory inventory 4.0D 7ld A6P in ve ventory 4.4% 6ncr 6ncree-en enta tall A6P A6P inve invent ntor ory y C0.? C0.?D D ?. *sti-ate of 6ncre-ental (epreciation +ew (epreciation (epreciation 1.@0 4. 7verhead 0.42 9. Preli-. *n#ineerin# "osts 0.90 Pre Preta> ta> 6ncr 6ncree-enta entall Prof Profit it C0.2 C0.20 0 @. "ash low )dust-ents )dust-ents ess ess "api "apita tall *>pe *>pen n C12. C12.00 00 )dd bacE bacE (epr (epreeciati ation 1.@0 1.@0 ess ess )dded dded A6P A6P inve invent ntor ory y =. ree ree "ash "ash low low
C12.00 C12.00
+P' F 6RR F
!"#$% 2 4. ? :
(iscount rate Ta> Rate 6nvest-ent 7utlay /-ill. (epreciable ife /years Salva#e 'alue A6P 6nventory<"ost of ;oods Months (ownti-e, "onstruction Preli-inary *n#ineerin# "osts 7verhead<6nvest-ent 2 200D 2@=,900 1%0.9@ 1?.%: 24.%?
? 2010
4 2011
9 2012
1 0 .0 : ?0: 1 2 .0 19 0 ? .0 : 1. 9 0 .9 ?. 9 : @ 201?
2@=,900 2@=,900 2@=,900 2@=,900 1%0.9@ 1?.%: 24.%?
1%0.9@ 1?.%: 24.%?
1%0.9@ 1?.%: 24.%?
1%0.9@ 1?.?: 2?.D2
290, 290,00 000 0 290, 290,00 000 0 290, 290,00 000 0 290, 290,00 000 0 290, 290,00 000 0 1@%.=9 1 @% @%.=9 1@ 1@%.=9 1@ 1@%.=9 1@ 1@%.=9 1D .4 .4 1 1D.4 1 1D 1D .4 .41 1 D. D.41 1 D. D.41 9.42 9.42 9.42 9.42 9.42 9.42 9.42 9.42 4.92 4.92
= 2014
% 2019
D 201@
10 201=
11 201%
12 201D
1? 2020
14 2021
19 2022
2@=,900 2@=,900 2@=,900 2@=,900 2@=,900 2@=,900 2@=,900 2@=,900 2@=,900 1%0.9@ 1?.?: 2?.D2
1%0.9@ 1?.?: 2?.D2
1%0.9@ 1?.?: 2?.D2
1%0.9@ 1?.?: 2?.D2
1%0.9@ 12.9: 22.9=
1%0.9@ 12.9: 22.9=
1%0.9@ 12.9: 22.9=
1%0.9@ 12.9: 22.9=
1%0.9@ 12.9: 22.9=
290, 290,00 000 0 290, 290,00 000 0 290, 290,00 000 0 290, 290,00 000 0 290, 290,00 000 0 290, 290,00 000 0 290, 290,00 000 0 290, 290,00 000 0 290, 290,00 000 0 1@%.=9 1@ 1@%.=9 1@ 1@%.=9 1@ 1@%.=9 1@ 1@%.=9 1@ 1@%.=9 1@ 1@%.=9 1@ 1@%.=9 1@ 1@%.=9 1 D. D.41 1 D. D.4 1 1D 1D.41 1 D. D.4 1 1D 1D .4 .41 1 D. D.41 1 D. D.4 1 1D 1D.41 1 D. D.4 1 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 ?.1@ ?.1@ ?.1@ ?.1@ ?.1@ ?.1@ ?.1@ ?.1@ ?.1@ ?.1@
4.@= 4 .4 .4 % 0.1D 0.1D
4.@= 4.4 % 0.1D 0.1D
4.@= 4 .4 .4% 0.1D 0.1D
4.@= 4.4% 0.1D 0.1D
4.=0 4 .4 .4% 0.22 0.22
4.=0 4.4% 0.22 0.22
4.=0 4.4 % 0.22 0.22
4.=0 4. 4.4% 0.22 0.22
4.=0 4.4 % 0.22 0.22
4.=4 4 .4 .4% 0.2@ 0.2@
4.=4 4.4% 0.2@ 0.2@
4.=4 4 .4 .4 % 0.2@ 0.2@
4.=4 4 .4 .4% 0.2@ 0.2@
4.=4 4 .4 .4 % 0.2@ 0.2@
1.?D 0.42
1.20 0. 0 .4 2
1.04 0.42
0.D0 0.42
0.=% 0.42
0.@% 0.42
0.9D 0. 4 2
0.99 0.42
0.99 0. 4 2
0.99 0.42
0.99 0.42
0.99 0.42
0.99 0.42
0.99 0.42
?.@1 ?.@1
?.%0 ?.%0
?.D@ ?.D@
4.10 4.10
?.?2 ?.?2
?.42 ?.42
?.91 ?.91
?.99 ?.99
?.99 ?.99
2.20 2.20
2.20 2.20
2.20 2.20
2.20 2.20
2.20 2.20
0.99 0.99
1.?D 1.?D
1.20 1.20
1.04 1.04
0.D0 0.D0
0.=% 0.=%
0.@% 0.@%
0.9D 0.9D
0.99 0.99
0.99 0.99
0.99 0.99
0.99 0.99
0.99 0.99
0.99 0.99
0.?D 0.?D
C0.9 C0.9% %
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
C0. C0.0? 0?
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
C0. C0.04 04
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00
0.2@ 0.2@
1.%9 1.%9
?.??
?.%@
?.%1
?.== ?.==
?.0%
?.0= ?.0=
?.09
?.0?
?.0?
2.04
2.0% 2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.?4
